RHP Nick Bitsko, Central Bucks East HS [PA]
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DoB: 6/16/2002. Commitment: Virginia
Nick Bitsko was originally a member of the 2021 draft class, though with an early birthday that made him older than the vast majority of high school juniors, he reclassified to a senior this year and is now relatively young for the class. Ironically, he was following another UVA recruit, Nate Savino, who was originally eligible for the 2020 draft but who instead went to campus in Charlottesville for the spring semester. That immediately puts Bitsko into the top tier of high school arms in the country, joining Jared Kelley and Mick Abel in the trio that has separated themselves from the pack. In the opinion of most scouts as well as my own, Kelley and Abel are probably a bit ahead of Bitsko, but they're also eight and ten months older than him, respectively, with a longer history in front of scouts.
Just by watching him pitch, you would have no idea that Bitsko reclassified and was supposed to be a junior. He sits in the low to mid 90's with a fastball that seems to jump on hitters, and that heat comes without a ton of effort, either. He also adds a true plus curve with both power and shape, which might the best breaking ball in the high school class. His third pitch is a changeup, which he doesn't use much yet but which rounds out his arsenal well and should only get better in time. He has advanced command for a high school pitcher that makes all of his pitches play up, and together it makes him look like a pro pitcher already.
Bitkso stands 6'4" and is already physically developed with a durable frame, giving him every chance to handle a starter's workload. Right now, he's nearly as good a pitcher as Kelley and better than Abel, though his upside is just a bit more limited because he is pretty much what he is. That also gives him a higher floor, as he's already brimming with starter's traits and knows who he is as a pitcher. Only Kelley can match his combination of power, stuff, and pitchability, and at just 17 years old, he has plenty of time to refine his ability and emerge a #2 or #3 starter. Draft-wise, signability was already going to be a question and the current situation compounds that further, but he is talented enough to go right in the middle of the first round and flirt with the top ten. Given the circumstances of being a cold weather arm who a) hadn't been seen as much over the summer because he was a member of the 2021 class at the time and b) didn't get much of a chance to throw outside in Philadelphia this spring before the season shut down, he'll probably go a bit lower if he is indeed signable. With a UVA commitment in hand, there is a really good chance he joins Savino in Charlottesville.
Game footage
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Sunday, March 29, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Max Meyer
RHP Max Meyer, Minnesota
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DoB: 3/12/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 1.95 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 46/8 K/BB in 27.2 IP
Meyer entered the season firmly in the first round conversation, though he was closer to the back than the front due to his lack of a track record as a starter. Indeed, he was excellent as a reliever in his freshman 2018 season (2.06 ERA, 54/13 K/BB) as a swingman in his sophomore 2019 (2.11 ERA, 87/20 K/BB), and in a brief stint with the US Collegiate National Team (0.69 ERA, 10/2 K/BB), but with a slight build and just eleven collegiate starts under his belt, he was a little bit of a question mark. Well, he changed that in a big way in 2020 and has pushed himself into the top ten conversation. One of the few pitchers in the country to have all four of his starts come against Power Five teams this spring, he went out and dominated Oregon, TCU, UNC, and Utah, in order. Those last two starts really vaulted him to where he is now, as he combined to strike out 29 over 17 innings of work against the Tar Heels and Utes, allowing just one earned run on nine hits and three walks (he allowed three unearned runs in the ninth inning against Utah, but he had thrown eight shutout with 15 strikeouts up until then).
Meyer's huge success hasn't merely been statistical. He added even more velocity to his fastball, which has been in the low to mid 90's in the past, and he now sits in the mid to upper 90's with the ability to touch 100. Meyer also brings a devastating slider that pairs great velocity up around 90 with wicked downward tilt, and it's pretty safely the best slider in a class full of great curveballs. He throws a good changeup as well, but to this point his upper 90's heat and 90 MPH slider have been more than enough to keep opposing lineups at bay all game long. He also does a great job of throwing strikes, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's safely above average and will work to his benefit going forward.
While he didn't get the chance to show he could hold up in a rotation for a full season, he did enough in his first four starts to convince evaluators he could start at the next level despite a skinny 6' build. He's a great athlete and repeats his delivery well, which also bodes well to a future in the rotation. Meyer is also a fierce competitor, and he can be seen bouncing around on the mound after completing his delivery or throwing sidearm for his last warmup pitch between innings. If you like explosive stuff, he's one you'll absolutely love to watch throw.
Meyer's loud start to the season put him firmly in the top half of the first round, and there is even some chatter about him going in as high as sixth to the Mariners. He has ace upside, with an easy comp being Luis Severino. For all of his track record and athleticism, he has yet to top 90 innings in a season even when you combine his numbers at Minnesota with his US CNT innings, which isn't his fault but which still matters. He therefore comes with a bit more risk than other college arms in this range of the draft (except Garrett Crochet), with the chance he could end up a reliever. Still, with a fastball touching triple digits, a plus-plus slider, good command, and a confident demeanor on the mound, he would make a great closer. It's an exciting package and hopefully he can avoid the injuries that have kept Severino off the mound.
Against UNC
Against Oregon
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/12/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 1.95 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 46/8 K/BB in 27.2 IP
Meyer entered the season firmly in the first round conversation, though he was closer to the back than the front due to his lack of a track record as a starter. Indeed, he was excellent as a reliever in his freshman 2018 season (2.06 ERA, 54/13 K/BB) as a swingman in his sophomore 2019 (2.11 ERA, 87/20 K/BB), and in a brief stint with the US Collegiate National Team (0.69 ERA, 10/2 K/BB), but with a slight build and just eleven collegiate starts under his belt, he was a little bit of a question mark. Well, he changed that in a big way in 2020 and has pushed himself into the top ten conversation. One of the few pitchers in the country to have all four of his starts come against Power Five teams this spring, he went out and dominated Oregon, TCU, UNC, and Utah, in order. Those last two starts really vaulted him to where he is now, as he combined to strike out 29 over 17 innings of work against the Tar Heels and Utes, allowing just one earned run on nine hits and three walks (he allowed three unearned runs in the ninth inning against Utah, but he had thrown eight shutout with 15 strikeouts up until then).
Meyer's huge success hasn't merely been statistical. He added even more velocity to his fastball, which has been in the low to mid 90's in the past, and he now sits in the mid to upper 90's with the ability to touch 100. Meyer also brings a devastating slider that pairs great velocity up around 90 with wicked downward tilt, and it's pretty safely the best slider in a class full of great curveballs. He throws a good changeup as well, but to this point his upper 90's heat and 90 MPH slider have been more than enough to keep opposing lineups at bay all game long. He also does a great job of throwing strikes, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's safely above average and will work to his benefit going forward.
While he didn't get the chance to show he could hold up in a rotation for a full season, he did enough in his first four starts to convince evaluators he could start at the next level despite a skinny 6' build. He's a great athlete and repeats his delivery well, which also bodes well to a future in the rotation. Meyer is also a fierce competitor, and he can be seen bouncing around on the mound after completing his delivery or throwing sidearm for his last warmup pitch between innings. If you like explosive stuff, he's one you'll absolutely love to watch throw.
Meyer's loud start to the season put him firmly in the top half of the first round, and there is even some chatter about him going in as high as sixth to the Mariners. He has ace upside, with an easy comp being Luis Severino. For all of his track record and athleticism, he has yet to top 90 innings in a season even when you combine his numbers at Minnesota with his US CNT innings, which isn't his fault but which still matters. He therefore comes with a bit more risk than other college arms in this range of the draft (except Garrett Crochet), with the chance he could end up a reliever. Still, with a fastball touching triple digits, a plus-plus slider, good command, and a confident demeanor on the mound, he would make a great closer. It's an exciting package and hopefully he can avoid the injuries that have kept Severino off the mound.
Against UNC
Against Oregon
Saturday, March 28, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Mick Abel
RHP Mick Abel, Jesuit HS [OR]
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DoB: 8/18/2001. Commitment: Oregon State
Mick Abel is your classic lanky high schooler that looks like a future ace if you dream hard enough. Fortunately, you don't have to dream that hard to see it in Abel, who has firmly established himself in the top tier of high school arms with Jared Kelley and Nick Bitsko. He mowed down quality opponents over the summer and was ready to completely shut down Portland-area hitters when the season shut down on him. Oregon hasn't produced a high school prospect of this caliber in a long time, though the Portland area did produce Adley Rutschman after he went down to Corvallis and raked for three years at Oregon State, where Abel is committed to play.
It's classic projection here. Abel stands at 6'5" and is listed south of 200 pounds, giving him plenty of room to grow into his lanky frame and add velocity and durability. For now, his velocity is inconsistent, though he has shown the ability to sit in the mid 90's for long stretches at a time and he has reportedly been in the upper 90's in bullpen work this spring. Add 20-30 pounds of good weight, and he could be consistently touching the upper 90's and sitting around 95-96 when it's all said and done. Abel's best secondary pitch is his slider, which has excellent late bite to it down in the zone and which can get consistently into the mid 80's. He also adds a curveball, which he throws less often and which can soften up at times, but it has good shape to it and he just needs to tighten it up so that it can play off his slider, which has more lateral movement. His changeup is also advanced for a high schooler with nice fade off the plate, and it looks like a fastball coming out of his hand and generates a lot of swings and misses.
Abel has very good command for a high school pitcher, especially one that's so lanky. It's not just his fastball that he can spot, as he does a great job of locating that slider down and away from righties and the changeup down and away from lefties. He can lose his release point occasionally, which can cause the ball to sail up and inside to right handed hitters, but that's really nitpicking. It's above average command for now with a good chance to end up plus. One area for Abel to work is on his durability, as he started to sit closer to 90 towards the end of the summer. This isn't uncommon in high school pitchers, especially for string beans like Abel, and adding good weight should mitigate the problem. He will turn 19 in August, making him a little older than most of his peers, which is something to keep in mind but ultimately but it shouldn't affect his stock.
Overall, it's clear ace upside. Abel has the velocity, secondary pitches, and command to succeed at the highest level. Throw that onto a projectable 6'5" frame and the sky is the limit. While there is some rawness in his game, he's been improving quickly and he's way ahead of most projection arms. As arguably the top high school pitcher in the class, Abel has a real shot at going in the top ten picks, but he also comes with more risk than probably any other player you'll see mentioned in top ten conversations just due to the fact that he's a high school right hander. Teams are reportedly trying to play it safe this year by emphasizing track record, which works against high schoolers like Abel, but the upside is so immense that he still probably doesn't slide out of the top half of the first round unless signability becomes a big factor.
Summer game footage
More summer game footage
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/18/2001. Commitment: Oregon State
Mick Abel is your classic lanky high schooler that looks like a future ace if you dream hard enough. Fortunately, you don't have to dream that hard to see it in Abel, who has firmly established himself in the top tier of high school arms with Jared Kelley and Nick Bitsko. He mowed down quality opponents over the summer and was ready to completely shut down Portland-area hitters when the season shut down on him. Oregon hasn't produced a high school prospect of this caliber in a long time, though the Portland area did produce Adley Rutschman after he went down to Corvallis and raked for three years at Oregon State, where Abel is committed to play.
It's classic projection here. Abel stands at 6'5" and is listed south of 200 pounds, giving him plenty of room to grow into his lanky frame and add velocity and durability. For now, his velocity is inconsistent, though he has shown the ability to sit in the mid 90's for long stretches at a time and he has reportedly been in the upper 90's in bullpen work this spring. Add 20-30 pounds of good weight, and he could be consistently touching the upper 90's and sitting around 95-96 when it's all said and done. Abel's best secondary pitch is his slider, which has excellent late bite to it down in the zone and which can get consistently into the mid 80's. He also adds a curveball, which he throws less often and which can soften up at times, but it has good shape to it and he just needs to tighten it up so that it can play off his slider, which has more lateral movement. His changeup is also advanced for a high schooler with nice fade off the plate, and it looks like a fastball coming out of his hand and generates a lot of swings and misses.
Abel has very good command for a high school pitcher, especially one that's so lanky. It's not just his fastball that he can spot, as he does a great job of locating that slider down and away from righties and the changeup down and away from lefties. He can lose his release point occasionally, which can cause the ball to sail up and inside to right handed hitters, but that's really nitpicking. It's above average command for now with a good chance to end up plus. One area for Abel to work is on his durability, as he started to sit closer to 90 towards the end of the summer. This isn't uncommon in high school pitchers, especially for string beans like Abel, and adding good weight should mitigate the problem. He will turn 19 in August, making him a little older than most of his peers, which is something to keep in mind but ultimately but it shouldn't affect his stock.
Overall, it's clear ace upside. Abel has the velocity, secondary pitches, and command to succeed at the highest level. Throw that onto a projectable 6'5" frame and the sky is the limit. While there is some rawness in his game, he's been improving quickly and he's way ahead of most projection arms. As arguably the top high school pitcher in the class, Abel has a real shot at going in the top ten picks, but he also comes with more risk than probably any other player you'll see mentioned in top ten conversations just due to the fact that he's a high school right hander. Teams are reportedly trying to play it safe this year by emphasizing track record, which works against high schoolers like Abel, but the upside is so immense that he still probably doesn't slide out of the top half of the first round unless signability becomes a big factor.
Summer game footage
More summer game footage
2020 Draft Profile: Austin Hendrick
OF Austin Hendrick, West Allegheny HS [PA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/15/2001. B/T: L/L
Commitment: Mississippi State
The Pittsburgh area isn't one of the country's premier baseball hotbeds, with its most notable recent products being Neil Walker, Ian Happ, and Alex Kirilloff. Now, they have a big name for the 2020 draft, as West Allegheny's Austin Hendrick may actually be an even better prospect than Kirilloff was in his 2016 draft year. A big performance over the summer made him easily the top high school bat in the country until Zac Veen's meteoric rise brought him into the same tier, and there are still a lot of scouts who would rank Hendrick ahead of Veen today.
Hendrick is a hitter, plain and simple. He has an explosive left handed swing that gives him some of the best raw power in the high school class, with a combination of strength and athleticism enabling him to whip the barrel around at high speeds. The hit tool isn't quite as refined, as there is some swing and miss in his game, but he's trending in the right direction there after a strong summer saw him make fairly consistent contact against high quality pitching. If that trend continues into pro ball and he can get to his huge raw power consistently, then his upside is as high as any hitter in this class. Defensively, he's actually pretty solid compared to a lot of other guys with his profile, as he can be a positive presence in right field with a strong arm, some sneaky speed, and enough range to make all the plays you need him to make.
The swing types are a bit different, but Hendrick reminds me a bit of now-Cardinals prospect Nolan Gorman as a hitter. Gorman was another left handed high school bat with explosive raw power and questions about his hit tool, but so far in pro ball, that hasn't been an issue yet as he mashed in A ball this year. Now, one negative in Hendrick's profile that wasn't present in Gorman's is age, as Hendrick is eleven months older relative to his class. His June birthday means he'll turn 19 a couple of days after the draft was originally scheduled to happen, presumably giving him extra development time already under his belt as compared to his peers. That said, the bat is so potent right now that the age can be more of an afterthought, and we heard very little about Bobby Witt Jr.'s June birthday last year before he went second overall to the Royals.
The stoppage in play might actually work a little bit to Hendrick's benefit. While guys like Zac Veen, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Robert Hassell were set to face stronger competition in the Daytona Beach, Los Angeles, and Nashville areas, respectively, Hendrick's weaker competition in Pittsburgh really wasn't going to give him a chance to prove much that he hadn't already proven on the summer showcase circuit. That wouldn't necessarily hurt him, but he would have had less of a chance to round out his profile and cement himself than some other guys would have. Now, everybody's stock is more or less frozen. That puts Hendrick as a first round lock, one with a very good shot to go in the top half of the round and potentially even in the top ten picks as arguably the top high school hitter in the country. His ceiling has him at 30-40 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and defense, and a more middle ground projection of 25-30 home runs and decent on-base percentages still makes him a real asset in the lineup. He's committed to Mississippi State and he'll be eligible again as a sophomore due to his early birthday, though he figures to go high enough in the first round that that won't be an issue.
Summer batting practice and fielding
Summer game action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/15/2001. B/T: L/L
Commitment: Mississippi State
The Pittsburgh area isn't one of the country's premier baseball hotbeds, with its most notable recent products being Neil Walker, Ian Happ, and Alex Kirilloff. Now, they have a big name for the 2020 draft, as West Allegheny's Austin Hendrick may actually be an even better prospect than Kirilloff was in his 2016 draft year. A big performance over the summer made him easily the top high school bat in the country until Zac Veen's meteoric rise brought him into the same tier, and there are still a lot of scouts who would rank Hendrick ahead of Veen today.
Hendrick is a hitter, plain and simple. He has an explosive left handed swing that gives him some of the best raw power in the high school class, with a combination of strength and athleticism enabling him to whip the barrel around at high speeds. The hit tool isn't quite as refined, as there is some swing and miss in his game, but he's trending in the right direction there after a strong summer saw him make fairly consistent contact against high quality pitching. If that trend continues into pro ball and he can get to his huge raw power consistently, then his upside is as high as any hitter in this class. Defensively, he's actually pretty solid compared to a lot of other guys with his profile, as he can be a positive presence in right field with a strong arm, some sneaky speed, and enough range to make all the plays you need him to make.
The swing types are a bit different, but Hendrick reminds me a bit of now-Cardinals prospect Nolan Gorman as a hitter. Gorman was another left handed high school bat with explosive raw power and questions about his hit tool, but so far in pro ball, that hasn't been an issue yet as he mashed in A ball this year. Now, one negative in Hendrick's profile that wasn't present in Gorman's is age, as Hendrick is eleven months older relative to his class. His June birthday means he'll turn 19 a couple of days after the draft was originally scheduled to happen, presumably giving him extra development time already under his belt as compared to his peers. That said, the bat is so potent right now that the age can be more of an afterthought, and we heard very little about Bobby Witt Jr.'s June birthday last year before he went second overall to the Royals.
The stoppage in play might actually work a little bit to Hendrick's benefit. While guys like Zac Veen, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Robert Hassell were set to face stronger competition in the Daytona Beach, Los Angeles, and Nashville areas, respectively, Hendrick's weaker competition in Pittsburgh really wasn't going to give him a chance to prove much that he hadn't already proven on the summer showcase circuit. That wouldn't necessarily hurt him, but he would have had less of a chance to round out his profile and cement himself than some other guys would have. Now, everybody's stock is more or less frozen. That puts Hendrick as a first round lock, one with a very good shot to go in the top half of the round and potentially even in the top ten picks as arguably the top high school hitter in the country. His ceiling has him at 30-40 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and defense, and a more middle ground projection of 25-30 home runs and decent on-base percentages still makes him a real asset in the lineup. He's committed to Mississippi State and he'll be eligible again as a sophomore due to his early birthday, though he figures to go high enough in the first round that that won't be an issue.
Summer batting practice and fielding
Summer game action
Sunday, March 22, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Zac Veen
OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/12/2001. B/T: L/R
Commitment: Florida.
There might not have been a player with more first round helium than Zac Veen when the season came to a sudden stop. Not really a huge prospect at the start of the summer, he was a fringe first rounder by the time the summer closed, continued to rise in the fall, and had exploded onto the scene this spring as the Florida high school leagues were among the first to get going. Often compared to Cody Bellinger, Veen has firmly established himself as the best player in a strong Florida high school group this year and is the top high school hitter in the country. He's got power, he can get to it, he's got projection, and he's just fun to watch.
Veen can already hit, and he's getting better and better at it every day. A lanky kid at 6'4", he has a leveraged uppercut that looks a lot like Cody Bellinger's swing and that he has continued to refine and get more consistent with. He was more hit over power over the summer, finding the barrel consistently and showing that he wasn't afraid of advanced pitching, but more and more he's begun to show some real raw juice and the ability to blast baseballs a long way. It's exactly the trajectory you want to see out of a young kid like that, and there's a lot more power projection in there as he begins to fill out his frame. He's not the world's flashiest defender, but he gets the job done with a strong arm in right field and should be at least a net-neutral out there, rather than purely just a hitter.
The stoppage in play is definitely not what he needed, because the up arrow next to his name was getting bolder and bolder with every game, and his shorter track record might scare off some scouts drafting higher in the first round who feel more comfortable taking a more proven college player. There are also some minor swing and miss questions that scouts wanted to see addressed this spring. They're not a glaring weakness, as he does make consistent hard contact in games and against good competition, but some scouts weren't convinced enough to say with confidence he'll have an above average hit tool at the next level. Small qualms, but everything is magnified for the top hitters in the country, especially when the season is cut short in March.
Veen's helium looks like it will be more than enough to keep him high in the first round. Before the stoppage in play, he had rocketed into the middle of the first round discussion and was even getting some top ten buzz, buzz which has since turned into more of an inevitability. It seems his helium has continued to carry him throughout the pandemic, as he has been linked to numerous teams around the top ten, even as high as #2 to the Orioles if they want to cut an underslot deal. He profiles as a true impact bat with an immense ceiling, one that could produce 30 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages in the long run. Veen is committed to Florida and is the favorite to be the first high schooler off the board, hitter or pitcher.
Summer footage from the Perfect Game All American Classic (warmups)
Batting practice and game footage from the Under Armour All American Game
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/12/2001. B/T: L/R
Commitment: Florida.
There might not have been a player with more first round helium than Zac Veen when the season came to a sudden stop. Not really a huge prospect at the start of the summer, he was a fringe first rounder by the time the summer closed, continued to rise in the fall, and had exploded onto the scene this spring as the Florida high school leagues were among the first to get going. Often compared to Cody Bellinger, Veen has firmly established himself as the best player in a strong Florida high school group this year and is the top high school hitter in the country. He's got power, he can get to it, he's got projection, and he's just fun to watch.
Veen can already hit, and he's getting better and better at it every day. A lanky kid at 6'4", he has a leveraged uppercut that looks a lot like Cody Bellinger's swing and that he has continued to refine and get more consistent with. He was more hit over power over the summer, finding the barrel consistently and showing that he wasn't afraid of advanced pitching, but more and more he's begun to show some real raw juice and the ability to blast baseballs a long way. It's exactly the trajectory you want to see out of a young kid like that, and there's a lot more power projection in there as he begins to fill out his frame. He's not the world's flashiest defender, but he gets the job done with a strong arm in right field and should be at least a net-neutral out there, rather than purely just a hitter.
The stoppage in play is definitely not what he needed, because the up arrow next to his name was getting bolder and bolder with every game, and his shorter track record might scare off some scouts drafting higher in the first round who feel more comfortable taking a more proven college player. There are also some minor swing and miss questions that scouts wanted to see addressed this spring. They're not a glaring weakness, as he does make consistent hard contact in games and against good competition, but some scouts weren't convinced enough to say with confidence he'll have an above average hit tool at the next level. Small qualms, but everything is magnified for the top hitters in the country, especially when the season is cut short in March.
Veen's helium looks like it will be more than enough to keep him high in the first round. Before the stoppage in play, he had rocketed into the middle of the first round discussion and was even getting some top ten buzz, buzz which has since turned into more of an inevitability. It seems his helium has continued to carry him throughout the pandemic, as he has been linked to numerous teams around the top ten, even as high as #2 to the Orioles if they want to cut an underslot deal. He profiles as a true impact bat with an immense ceiling, one that could produce 30 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages in the long run. Veen is committed to Florida and is the favorite to be the first high schooler off the board, hitter or pitcher.
Summer footage from the Perfect Game All American Classic (warmups)
Batting practice and game footage from the Under Armour All American Game
Saturday, March 21, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Reid Detmers
LHP Reid Detmers, Louisville
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/8/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.23 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 48/6 K/BB in 22 IP
Few pitchers have dominated their competition quite like Reid Detmers as of late, as the Springfield, Illinois native is 16-4 with a 2.53 ERA and a 215/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 135.1 innings since the start of the 2019 season. This year, he went out and dominated a very strong Ole Miss lineup as well as Valparaiso, Western Michigan, and Wake Forest, picking up 15 strikeouts in that final start against the Demon Deacons. College hitters just can't touch him, and he's made them all look silly for the majority of his college career. While he may not pop radar guns like some of the other arms in this class, he might be the most major league ready pitcher available, save for perhaps Emerson Hancock.
Detmers doesn't actually throw all that hard, sitting just above 90 most days, but the rest of his game is excellent. The 6'2" lefty comes in with an excellent two-plane curveball that can drop the entire length of the strike zone from one corner to the opposite, which makes it nearly impossible to square up no matter who you are, even though it's down in the mid 70's. His changeup is his third pitch but he is very comfortable throwing it and it should be an above average pitch in time. A plus pitch and two seemingly average pitches don't sound like a top ten profile, but Detmers is such a "pitcher" (as opposed to a "thrower") that everything plays up significantly. He gets good deception and great riding action on his fastball that makes it play well above its average velocity, and he commands all three pitches with precision. He also goes about his business on the mound with a true gamer mentality, leaving no doubt that he's prepared to win every at bat. The combination of the plus command and professional approach to pitching means that he can control every at bat, locking down the strike zone and choosing when he wants hitters to chase, when he wants them to freeze, and so on.
The one thing holding Detmers out of that very top group of names in this draft is the velocity. Guys like Hancock on the college side and Jared Kelley on the high school side throw significantly harder than Detmers while maintaining plus control, and at the end of the day, velocity is king in pro ball. That said, everything else about Detmers' game is as good as it gets, and there's always the chance he can bump himself closer to the mid 90's with some pro instruction. Additionally, with all the uncertainty in this year's draft, his profile as a low risk commodity might be very attractive to teams wary of drafting kids they haven't seen play in months. His floor as a #4 starter is as high as any arm in this draft, and he has a real shot at becoming a dependable #2 guy. He was starting to rise a bit this spring, moving himself into the front half of the first round, and now with all the uncertainty he has a really good shot at finding himself in the top ten picks.
2020 game footage vs Western Michigan
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/8/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.23 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 48/6 K/BB in 22 IP
Few pitchers have dominated their competition quite like Reid Detmers as of late, as the Springfield, Illinois native is 16-4 with a 2.53 ERA and a 215/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 135.1 innings since the start of the 2019 season. This year, he went out and dominated a very strong Ole Miss lineup as well as Valparaiso, Western Michigan, and Wake Forest, picking up 15 strikeouts in that final start against the Demon Deacons. College hitters just can't touch him, and he's made them all look silly for the majority of his college career. While he may not pop radar guns like some of the other arms in this class, he might be the most major league ready pitcher available, save for perhaps Emerson Hancock.
Detmers doesn't actually throw all that hard, sitting just above 90 most days, but the rest of his game is excellent. The 6'2" lefty comes in with an excellent two-plane curveball that can drop the entire length of the strike zone from one corner to the opposite, which makes it nearly impossible to square up no matter who you are, even though it's down in the mid 70's. His changeup is his third pitch but he is very comfortable throwing it and it should be an above average pitch in time. A plus pitch and two seemingly average pitches don't sound like a top ten profile, but Detmers is such a "pitcher" (as opposed to a "thrower") that everything plays up significantly. He gets good deception and great riding action on his fastball that makes it play well above its average velocity, and he commands all three pitches with precision. He also goes about his business on the mound with a true gamer mentality, leaving no doubt that he's prepared to win every at bat. The combination of the plus command and professional approach to pitching means that he can control every at bat, locking down the strike zone and choosing when he wants hitters to chase, when he wants them to freeze, and so on.
The one thing holding Detmers out of that very top group of names in this draft is the velocity. Guys like Hancock on the college side and Jared Kelley on the high school side throw significantly harder than Detmers while maintaining plus control, and at the end of the day, velocity is king in pro ball. That said, everything else about Detmers' game is as good as it gets, and there's always the chance he can bump himself closer to the mid 90's with some pro instruction. Additionally, with all the uncertainty in this year's draft, his profile as a low risk commodity might be very attractive to teams wary of drafting kids they haven't seen play in months. His floor as a #4 starter is as high as any arm in this draft, and he has a real shot at becoming a dependable #2 guy. He was starting to rise a bit this spring, moving himself into the front half of the first round, and now with all the uncertainty he has a really good shot at finding himself in the top ten picks.
2020 game footage vs Western Michigan
2020 Draft Profile: Jared Kelley
RHP Jared Kelley, Refugio HS [TX]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/3/2001. Commitment: Texas
Finally, our first high schooler. Every year it seems we discuss the fact that a high schooler has never gone first overall, and while it would have taken a fantastic season as well as a lot of luck to push Kelley into that spot even before the season was cancelled, it's pretty much guaranteed that the streak will extend another season. Still, Kelley is, in my opinion, the top high school pitcher in the country, and he put himself in that position from the tiny South Texas town of Refugio, about 35 miles north of Corpus Christi.
When talking about high school pitchers, the three most basic things you look for are polish, stuff, and build, and Kelley has all three of those. He's a 6'3" right hander that has already begun to fill out his durable frame, which should in theory give him a better chance to manage a full starter's workload. Stuff-wise, he comes at you with an easy, easy mid 90's fastball that he throws as if he's just playing catch, and he's hit 99 quite a few times. He also adds a really nice changeup for a high schooler that plays really well off his fastball, and he's making steady progress refining a slurvy breaking ball that should be at least an above average pitch in time. Kelley controls the strike zone extremely well for a high school pitcher, with plus command that really helps him tie everything together.
High school pitchers are the riskiest of the four major demographics, but as far as those guys go, Kelley is about as low risk as it gets. With a strong frame, an effortless delivery, and swing and miss stuff, he's got nearly everything he needs to be a future workhorse ace. The last similar kid to come out of the high school ranks was lefty Ryan Weathers back in 2018, though Kelley throws even harder with the same polish and build from the right side. It's really hard not to love Kelley as a prospect, high school pitcher risk or not. The only thing holding him back for now is the consistency of his breaking ball, which occasionally flashes plus potential but isn't quite there yet. He probably fits somewhere in the middle of the first round, just due to the strength of the top of this college class and the shortened season, but he's my favorite high schooler in this class and I'd expect him to be the first one off the board. Kelley is committed to Texas.
Area Code Games (with velocity)
Under Armour All America Game
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/3/2001. Commitment: Texas
Finally, our first high schooler. Every year it seems we discuss the fact that a high schooler has never gone first overall, and while it would have taken a fantastic season as well as a lot of luck to push Kelley into that spot even before the season was cancelled, it's pretty much guaranteed that the streak will extend another season. Still, Kelley is, in my opinion, the top high school pitcher in the country, and he put himself in that position from the tiny South Texas town of Refugio, about 35 miles north of Corpus Christi.
When talking about high school pitchers, the three most basic things you look for are polish, stuff, and build, and Kelley has all three of those. He's a 6'3" right hander that has already begun to fill out his durable frame, which should in theory give him a better chance to manage a full starter's workload. Stuff-wise, he comes at you with an easy, easy mid 90's fastball that he throws as if he's just playing catch, and he's hit 99 quite a few times. He also adds a really nice changeup for a high schooler that plays really well off his fastball, and he's making steady progress refining a slurvy breaking ball that should be at least an above average pitch in time. Kelley controls the strike zone extremely well for a high school pitcher, with plus command that really helps him tie everything together.
High school pitchers are the riskiest of the four major demographics, but as far as those guys go, Kelley is about as low risk as it gets. With a strong frame, an effortless delivery, and swing and miss stuff, he's got nearly everything he needs to be a future workhorse ace. The last similar kid to come out of the high school ranks was lefty Ryan Weathers back in 2018, though Kelley throws even harder with the same polish and build from the right side. It's really hard not to love Kelley as a prospect, high school pitcher risk or not. The only thing holding him back for now is the consistency of his breaking ball, which occasionally flashes plus potential but isn't quite there yet. He probably fits somewhere in the middle of the first round, just due to the strength of the top of this college class and the shortened season, but he's my favorite high schooler in this class and I'd expect him to be the first one off the board. Kelley is committed to Texas.
Area Code Games (with velocity)
Under Armour All America Game
Friday, March 20, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Garrett Mitchell
OF Garrett Mitchell, UCLA
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/4/1998. B/T: L/R
2020 Stats: 0 HR, .355/.425/.484, 5 SB, 3/6 K/BB in 15 games
I was a big fan of Mitchell coming out of Orange Lutheran High School in 2017, the same school that produced Gerrit Cole, and I ranked him 38th on my draft list that year while MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked him 54th and 62nd, respectively. After two-plus years at UCLA, he has emerged as perhaps the most gifted player in the 2020 class. After an unremarkable freshman season, he showed off his ability with a .349/.418/.566 line, six home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 62 games in 2019, and he kept on hitting with a .355/.425/.484 line through 15 games in 2020.
In recent memory, there hasn't been a player with Mitchell's combination of polish, raw power, and speed to come through the draft. He can flat out put on a show in batting practice, with the ability to hit the ball as far as anyone in the college game. Mitchell can run, too, with his plus-plus speed serving him well both on the bases and in center field. Throw in a strong arm, and he's the toolsiest player in this draft class. He also makes consistent hard contact against high level pitching in the Pac-12, which should enable him to continue to hit for high averages in pro ball. Mitchell's plate discipline has improved steadily throughout his college career, with his strikeout rate dropping from 22.6% as a freshman to 14.0% as a sophomore and down to 4.1% in a small sample as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate improved from 6.2% to 9.2% to 8.2% over the same span, further implying progress in that area.
One thing that leaves scouts wanting more is the discrepancy between Mitchell's raw power and his game power. We all know that his raw power is outstanding, but it has played much more to the gaps (24 doubles and 15 triples in 121 career college games) than it has over the fence (just six home runs in that span and none in 15 games in 2020). Mitchell's line drive approach has worked well for him in college, but in order to justify himself as a top five pick, scouts wanted more proof that he'll be able to turn those doubles and triples into home runs at the next level, and unfortunately he won't get a chance to do that in 2020. They also want to see him get a bit more patient at the plate, as his walk rates have remained low throughout college and he will be better off being a bit more selective against pro pitching in order to really tap that power.
A smaller but present concern that some teams with Mitchell is the fact that he has Type 1 diabetes. Personally though, I'm not concerned about that. He has proven more than capable of managing it so far in his college career, and players like Sam Fuld, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Lowe have all had success with the condition. I may be a bit biased in all this because my fiancée is a Type 1 diabetic as well and she once won a horse jumping competition with extremely high blood sugar, but I stand firm.
Mitchell's range of outcomes in pro ball are wider than the typical high level college player. It's possible that pro coaching could unlock that game power and make him an annual 30-30 threat, especially with the consistent feel for the barrel and hitting in general he's shown so far. That five tool projection gives him a tremendous ceiling, and it's what puts him close to the top tier of draft prospects this year. However, the fact that he remains unproven in several areas of his game clouds that projection a bit, just enough to knock him just out of that first tier of players in this class. That ceiling makes him a virtual lock to go in the top half of the first round, though he's dropped a bit closer to the middle of the first round than the very front. He was a bit of a dark horse candidate to go first overall to the Tigers, though now without the opportunity to tap that game power nor the opportunity to show he can manage the diabetes over another 60-70 game season, that won't happen.
Batting practice and game footage with the US College National Team
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/4/1998. B/T: L/R
2020 Stats: 0 HR, .355/.425/.484, 5 SB, 3/6 K/BB in 15 games
I was a big fan of Mitchell coming out of Orange Lutheran High School in 2017, the same school that produced Gerrit Cole, and I ranked him 38th on my draft list that year while MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked him 54th and 62nd, respectively. After two-plus years at UCLA, he has emerged as perhaps the most gifted player in the 2020 class. After an unremarkable freshman season, he showed off his ability with a .349/.418/.566 line, six home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 62 games in 2019, and he kept on hitting with a .355/.425/.484 line through 15 games in 2020.
In recent memory, there hasn't been a player with Mitchell's combination of polish, raw power, and speed to come through the draft. He can flat out put on a show in batting practice, with the ability to hit the ball as far as anyone in the college game. Mitchell can run, too, with his plus-plus speed serving him well both on the bases and in center field. Throw in a strong arm, and he's the toolsiest player in this draft class. He also makes consistent hard contact against high level pitching in the Pac-12, which should enable him to continue to hit for high averages in pro ball. Mitchell's plate discipline has improved steadily throughout his college career, with his strikeout rate dropping from 22.6% as a freshman to 14.0% as a sophomore and down to 4.1% in a small sample as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate improved from 6.2% to 9.2% to 8.2% over the same span, further implying progress in that area.
One thing that leaves scouts wanting more is the discrepancy between Mitchell's raw power and his game power. We all know that his raw power is outstanding, but it has played much more to the gaps (24 doubles and 15 triples in 121 career college games) than it has over the fence (just six home runs in that span and none in 15 games in 2020). Mitchell's line drive approach has worked well for him in college, but in order to justify himself as a top five pick, scouts wanted more proof that he'll be able to turn those doubles and triples into home runs at the next level, and unfortunately he won't get a chance to do that in 2020. They also want to see him get a bit more patient at the plate, as his walk rates have remained low throughout college and he will be better off being a bit more selective against pro pitching in order to really tap that power.
A smaller but present concern that some teams with Mitchell is the fact that he has Type 1 diabetes. Personally though, I'm not concerned about that. He has proven more than capable of managing it so far in his college career, and players like Sam Fuld, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Lowe have all had success with the condition. I may be a bit biased in all this because my fiancée is a Type 1 diabetic as well and she once won a horse jumping competition with extremely high blood sugar, but I stand firm.
Mitchell's range of outcomes in pro ball are wider than the typical high level college player. It's possible that pro coaching could unlock that game power and make him an annual 30-30 threat, especially with the consistent feel for the barrel and hitting in general he's shown so far. That five tool projection gives him a tremendous ceiling, and it's what puts him close to the top tier of draft prospects this year. However, the fact that he remains unproven in several areas of his game clouds that projection a bit, just enough to knock him just out of that first tier of players in this class. That ceiling makes him a virtual lock to go in the top half of the first round, though he's dropped a bit closer to the middle of the first round than the very front. He was a bit of a dark horse candidate to go first overall to the Tigers, though now without the opportunity to tap that game power nor the opportunity to show he can manage the diabetes over another 60-70 game season, that won't happen.
Batting practice and game footage with the US College National Team
Monday, March 16, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Asa Lacy
LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/2/1999
2020 Stats: 3-0, 0.75 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 46/8 K/BB in 24 IP
First off, I have to start with a quick brag. In 2017, I put a star next to then-high schooler Asa Lacy's name in my draft list to denote him as a "favorite" compared to other players in the draft class. His ranking of #78 on my list might seem modest, but MLB Pipeline had him at #124 and Baseball America had him at #176, so I'm going to call that a big success for me. Of course, there were other players on that list marked as favorites that I'm less proud of, such as Alex Lange and Jordan Spicer, but I'd like to revel in this one.
Okay, now to talk about Lacy himself. There's a stereotype about big Texas pitchers, and Lacy fits it to a T. Hailing from the small Hill Country town of Kerrville, also home to Johnny Manziel, Lacy is listed at 6'4", 215 pounds and looks every bit of it. He significantly elevated his draft stock with a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio against a tough SEC schedule as a sophomore in 2019, then looked even sharper through four starts in 2020 with a 0.75 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 46/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 24 innings against four pretty good lineups, as far as non-conference slates go. He struck out 14 against Army on February 21st and 13 against New Mexico State on March 6th, including likely top five pick Nick Gonzales.
There's no question about, well, most of Lacy's profile. He's an imposing presence on the mound not only due to his size, but due to his competitiveness and go-right-after-you style of pitching. Of course, he backs it up with excellent stuff, including a mid 90's fastball, a great curve, a slider, and a good changeup. He's not shy about challenging hitters with all of his pitches, and with the fastball and curveball especially being downright unfair when he locates and sequences them well. It's a true front-of-the-rotation four pitch mix, and with his competitiveness and big, durable frame, he has what it takes to become a big league ace.
There's one piece of Lacy's profile that doesn't get resounding plus grades from scouts, and that's command. He doesn't have the same impeccable history of strike throwing that other high-end college starters like Emerson Hancock and Reid Detmers possess, though fortunately, he's very much trending in the right direction. He dropped his walk rate from 20.2% in 2019 to 11.4% in 2020, and even if it would have jumped back up to around 14% or 15% once he started facing all those SEC lineups, he took a tangible step forward in that regard. Entering the season, the command looked slightly below average, though now it looks to be a bit above average and it makes him a fully complete profile.
The ultimate ceiling here is true ace, of course. Lacy has the best four pitch mix in amateur baseball, and it's all coming from a durable, 6'4" frame and a pitcher with all the intangibles needed for success. The command was originally the one slight qualm in Lacy's profile, but he's already making us forget that question and it gets 50 or even 55 grades from evaluators. Though he entered the season right behind Emerson Hancock, he's flipped the script and he's safely ahead now. As for a draft projection, I think he does have a slight shot at going first or second overall, but most of the industry sees him pretty locked in at #3 to the Marlins.
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/2/1999
2020 Stats: 3-0, 0.75 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 46/8 K/BB in 24 IP
First off, I have to start with a quick brag. In 2017, I put a star next to then-high schooler Asa Lacy's name in my draft list to denote him as a "favorite" compared to other players in the draft class. His ranking of #78 on my list might seem modest, but MLB Pipeline had him at #124 and Baseball America had him at #176, so I'm going to call that a big success for me. Of course, there were other players on that list marked as favorites that I'm less proud of, such as Alex Lange and Jordan Spicer, but I'd like to revel in this one.
Okay, now to talk about Lacy himself. There's a stereotype about big Texas pitchers, and Lacy fits it to a T. Hailing from the small Hill Country town of Kerrville, also home to Johnny Manziel, Lacy is listed at 6'4", 215 pounds and looks every bit of it. He significantly elevated his draft stock with a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio against a tough SEC schedule as a sophomore in 2019, then looked even sharper through four starts in 2020 with a 0.75 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 46/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 24 innings against four pretty good lineups, as far as non-conference slates go. He struck out 14 against Army on February 21st and 13 against New Mexico State on March 6th, including likely top five pick Nick Gonzales.
There's no question about, well, most of Lacy's profile. He's an imposing presence on the mound not only due to his size, but due to his competitiveness and go-right-after-you style of pitching. Of course, he backs it up with excellent stuff, including a mid 90's fastball, a great curve, a slider, and a good changeup. He's not shy about challenging hitters with all of his pitches, and with the fastball and curveball especially being downright unfair when he locates and sequences them well. It's a true front-of-the-rotation four pitch mix, and with his competitiveness and big, durable frame, he has what it takes to become a big league ace.
There's one piece of Lacy's profile that doesn't get resounding plus grades from scouts, and that's command. He doesn't have the same impeccable history of strike throwing that other high-end college starters like Emerson Hancock and Reid Detmers possess, though fortunately, he's very much trending in the right direction. He dropped his walk rate from 20.2% in 2019 to 11.4% in 2020, and even if it would have jumped back up to around 14% or 15% once he started facing all those SEC lineups, he took a tangible step forward in that regard. Entering the season, the command looked slightly below average, though now it looks to be a bit above average and it makes him a fully complete profile.
The ultimate ceiling here is true ace, of course. Lacy has the best four pitch mix in amateur baseball, and it's all coming from a durable, 6'4" frame and a pitcher with all the intangibles needed for success. The command was originally the one slight qualm in Lacy's profile, but he's already making us forget that question and it gets 50 or even 55 grades from evaluators. Though he entered the season right behind Emerson Hancock, he's flipped the script and he's safely ahead now. As for a draft projection, I think he does have a slight shot at going first or second overall, but most of the industry sees him pretty locked in at #3 to the Marlins.
Sunday, March 15, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Nick Gonzales
2B Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/27/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 12 HR, .448/.610/1.155, 4 SB, 10/21 K/BB in 16 games
I have already written extensively about Gonzales in the context of this crazy numbers here, as he's an absolutely fascinating prospect to track. If you've already read it, this article might be a bit redundant, but again, Gonzales is just so interesting as a prospect. Lightly recruited out of his Tucson, Arizona-area high school, Gonzales wound up at New Mexico State and promptly hit .347/.425/.596 with nine home runs as a freshman despite not turning 19 until the end of the season. Then, as a sophomore in 2019, he kicked it into another gear, slashing .432/.532/.773 with 16 home runs and a 30/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. Yes, you read that correctly. Gonzales hit well over .400 with an on-base percentage well north of .500 while simultaneously hitting for significant power.
Now, those numbers come with caveats. He plays his home games at NM State's Presley Askew Field, which is nearly four thousand feet above sea level (approaching Coors Field territory), and they don't use a humidifier, so the ball absolutely flies in the dry Las Cruces air. Secondly, New Mexico State doesn't play the toughest schedule in the Western Athletic Conference, making his numbers even less comparable to those of similar prospects in bigger conferences, like Austin Martin in the SEC. So, how did he answer those questions? He simply went out to the elite Cape Cod League over the summer and won the league MVP award, slashing .349/.445/.599 with eight home runs and a 29/25 strikeout to walk ratio along the way to remove any doubt of where his bat stood. He was slashing a ridiculous .448/.610/1.155 with 12 home runs, including five in one double header, in 2020 before the season ended.
There is absolutely no question that Gonzales can hit. He employs an exceptionally quick swing from the right side, and his exceptional hand-eye coordination enables him to find the barrel with almost laughable ease. He's actually pretty small, listed at just 5'10", but his hands are so quick and his bat so explosive that he can generate above average raw power despite his size. Gonzales is also incredibly consistent, having gotten on base in 82 consecutive games dating back to his freshman year, which is two shy of Ted Williams' MLB record of 84. Defensively, he's not setting the world on fire at second base, but he's worked hard to make himself a competent defender there and at the very least he will not be a liability in the infield.
Gonzales was born to hit, he's done so everywhere he's been so far, and he'll continue to do so everywhere he goes. I have also read great things about his work ethic from Baseball America (subscription required), and it would be foolish to doubt this kid will be anything but an impact hitter. The overall projection, at least offensively, is not too dissimilar to Austin Martin, though Martin does have that SEC track record plus better defense to lean on. I wouldn't knock Gonzales at all for not having that big conference track record at this point, so really the only main difference is defense. If the Tigers are truly enamored with his bat, which they should be, he has an outside shot at going first overall, though a more likely projection would be somewhere in the four to five range.
Cape Cod League game footage
Going the other way on a pitch up
In the videos, note how easily barrel finds ball. The second video is my favorite swing I've seen of his.
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/27/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 12 HR, .448/.610/1.155, 4 SB, 10/21 K/BB in 16 games
I have already written extensively about Gonzales in the context of this crazy numbers here, as he's an absolutely fascinating prospect to track. If you've already read it, this article might be a bit redundant, but again, Gonzales is just so interesting as a prospect. Lightly recruited out of his Tucson, Arizona-area high school, Gonzales wound up at New Mexico State and promptly hit .347/.425/.596 with nine home runs as a freshman despite not turning 19 until the end of the season. Then, as a sophomore in 2019, he kicked it into another gear, slashing .432/.532/.773 with 16 home runs and a 30/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. Yes, you read that correctly. Gonzales hit well over .400 with an on-base percentage well north of .500 while simultaneously hitting for significant power.
Now, those numbers come with caveats. He plays his home games at NM State's Presley Askew Field, which is nearly four thousand feet above sea level (approaching Coors Field territory), and they don't use a humidifier, so the ball absolutely flies in the dry Las Cruces air. Secondly, New Mexico State doesn't play the toughest schedule in the Western Athletic Conference, making his numbers even less comparable to those of similar prospects in bigger conferences, like Austin Martin in the SEC. So, how did he answer those questions? He simply went out to the elite Cape Cod League over the summer and won the league MVP award, slashing .349/.445/.599 with eight home runs and a 29/25 strikeout to walk ratio along the way to remove any doubt of where his bat stood. He was slashing a ridiculous .448/.610/1.155 with 12 home runs, including five in one double header, in 2020 before the season ended.
There is absolutely no question that Gonzales can hit. He employs an exceptionally quick swing from the right side, and his exceptional hand-eye coordination enables him to find the barrel with almost laughable ease. He's actually pretty small, listed at just 5'10", but his hands are so quick and his bat so explosive that he can generate above average raw power despite his size. Gonzales is also incredibly consistent, having gotten on base in 82 consecutive games dating back to his freshman year, which is two shy of Ted Williams' MLB record of 84. Defensively, he's not setting the world on fire at second base, but he's worked hard to make himself a competent defender there and at the very least he will not be a liability in the infield.
Gonzales was born to hit, he's done so everywhere he's been so far, and he'll continue to do so everywhere he goes. I have also read great things about his work ethic from Baseball America (subscription required), and it would be foolish to doubt this kid will be anything but an impact hitter. The overall projection, at least offensively, is not too dissimilar to Austin Martin, though Martin does have that SEC track record plus better defense to lean on. I wouldn't knock Gonzales at all for not having that big conference track record at this point, so really the only main difference is defense. If the Tigers are truly enamored with his bat, which they should be, he has an outside shot at going first overall, though a more likely projection would be somewhere in the four to five range.
Cape Cod League game footage
Going the other way on a pitch up
In the videos, note how easily barrel finds ball. The second video is my favorite swing I've seen of his.
2020 Draft Profile: Austin Martin
SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt
Full index of draft profiles here
DoB: 3/23/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 3 SB, 2/10 K/BB in 16 games
Martin is the best pure hitter in the 2020 draft class, as evidenced by an excellent 36/50 strikeout to walk ratio against a tough SEC schedule over the last two seasons, averaging about one strikeout every other game. For me, the first name that jumps off the page as a comparison is Alex Bregman at LSU. In his junior year, Bregman hit .323/.412/.535 with nine home runs and a 22/36 strikeout to walk ratio, and while we won't get to see what Martin could have done, he probably would have had similar numbers with a bit better of a slash line. Like Bregman, Martin is a smaller right handed hitting SEC infielder that relies on exceptional feel for both the barrel and the strike zone to get by, and both employed quick swings that were more geared towards line drives than home runs. While I don't think Martin reaches 41 home runs in a season, I can see an otherwise similar career arc for the kid from Jacksonville.
Amateur pitching has yet to find a way to get Martin out. He hit .338/.452/.414 as a freshman before exploding for a .392/.486/.604 line as a sophomore, and he was up to .377/.507/.660 in 2020 before his season ended. He's a very deliberate hitter that is comfortable hitting in any count against even the toughest SEC Friday night aces, and when he decides to put a swing on the ball, he very rarely misses. Martin's quick hands and exceptional hand-eye coordination enable him to get his hands inside any pitch in any quadrant of the zone, which leads to a seemingly unlimited supply of line drive base hits that can turn into doubles and triples when they find the gap. He's not the biggest guy in the world at a listed 6', 185 pounds, but there is some over the fence power in there as well, and he could tap into 15-20 home runs per season or more at the major league level. As I mentioned earlier, Alex Bregman had a similar profile in college, and he hit 41 in 2020. And no, I don't think that was solely a product of knowing what was coming.
Defensively, Martin has played second base in deference to now-Pirates prospect Ethan Paul, so 2020 was supposed to be about showing what he could do at the premium position. While he never fully proved himself there, he's likely to be an impact defender somewhere, be that at shortstop, second base, third base, or even center field. All together, he projects for high on-base percentages in the .400 range while hitting 15-20 or more home runs per season, though more power is possible, and all that coming from a shortstop is an All Star projection. The only player in this draft that can challenge Martin's pure hit tool is Nick Gonzales, and none can challenge his combination of offensive and defensive ability. He and Spencer Torkelson seem like the favorites to go first overall, and he's a virtual lock for the top three picks.
Game footage
Full index of draft profiles here
DoB: 3/23/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 3 SB, 2/10 K/BB in 16 games
Martin is the best pure hitter in the 2020 draft class, as evidenced by an excellent 36/50 strikeout to walk ratio against a tough SEC schedule over the last two seasons, averaging about one strikeout every other game. For me, the first name that jumps off the page as a comparison is Alex Bregman at LSU. In his junior year, Bregman hit .323/.412/.535 with nine home runs and a 22/36 strikeout to walk ratio, and while we won't get to see what Martin could have done, he probably would have had similar numbers with a bit better of a slash line. Like Bregman, Martin is a smaller right handed hitting SEC infielder that relies on exceptional feel for both the barrel and the strike zone to get by, and both employed quick swings that were more geared towards line drives than home runs. While I don't think Martin reaches 41 home runs in a season, I can see an otherwise similar career arc for the kid from Jacksonville.
Amateur pitching has yet to find a way to get Martin out. He hit .338/.452/.414 as a freshman before exploding for a .392/.486/.604 line as a sophomore, and he was up to .377/.507/.660 in 2020 before his season ended. He's a very deliberate hitter that is comfortable hitting in any count against even the toughest SEC Friday night aces, and when he decides to put a swing on the ball, he very rarely misses. Martin's quick hands and exceptional hand-eye coordination enable him to get his hands inside any pitch in any quadrant of the zone, which leads to a seemingly unlimited supply of line drive base hits that can turn into doubles and triples when they find the gap. He's not the biggest guy in the world at a listed 6', 185 pounds, but there is some over the fence power in there as well, and he could tap into 15-20 home runs per season or more at the major league level. As I mentioned earlier, Alex Bregman had a similar profile in college, and he hit 41 in 2020. And no, I don't think that was solely a product of knowing what was coming.
Defensively, Martin has played second base in deference to now-Pirates prospect Ethan Paul, so 2020 was supposed to be about showing what he could do at the premium position. While he never fully proved himself there, he's likely to be an impact defender somewhere, be that at shortstop, second base, third base, or even center field. All together, he projects for high on-base percentages in the .400 range while hitting 15-20 or more home runs per season, though more power is possible, and all that coming from a shortstop is an All Star projection. The only player in this draft that can challenge Martin's pure hit tool is Nick Gonzales, and none can challenge his combination of offensive and defensive ability. He and Spencer Torkelson seem like the favorites to go first overall, and he's a virtual lock for the top three picks.
Game footage
Saturday, March 14, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Emerson Hancock
RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia
Full index of draft profiles here
DoB: 5/31/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-0, 3.75 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 34/3 K/BB in 24 IP
Hancock came into the season drawing numerous comparisons to Casey Mize, a fellow SEC right hander with a similar build, stuff, and track record. Indeed, it was earned – in 2019, Hancock put up a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and did so against a tough SEC slate. However, 2020 was been a bit less steady. He allowed six runs in his opening start against a weaker Richmond lineup, then turned it around by tossing seven shutout innings against another weaker lineup, Santa Clara. Tasked with a stronger Georgia Tech team for his third start, he started strong by getting them to go nine up, nine down with five strikeouts the first time through the order. However, he started to run into trouble in the fourth and ended up allowing four runs over 5.2 innings. In his final start of the season on March 6th, he came back with his best by striking out twelve over 7.1 shutout innings against Massachusetts.
Despite his up and down start to the season, I don't think his stock really dropped too much. Rather, I think the illusion of perfection was kind of popped. Nobody thought he was perfect, but he hadn't done anything *wrong* to that point, so we were left with this image of an SEC ace who would just go in and put in consistent dominant outings against some of the best lineups in college baseball. Of course we know that pitchers are going to have off days, and he had a couple in 2020, but that doesn't change his projection as a future ace. Hancock stands 6'4" and sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which he backs up with a full arsenal of secondary pitches. His slider is his primary weapon with its late bite that plays extremely well off his fastball due to his ability to tunnel them together. Hancock also adds a curveball and a fading changeup, both of which miss plenty of bats and could be above average or plus pitches. To tie it all together, he brings well above average command and the ability to control the strike zone, and he's walked just three batters in 24 innings this season.
Overall, he checks all the proverbial "boxes" of a future ace: tall, throws hard, full set of secondaries, throws strikes, and has stayed mostly healthy. However, if we want to nitpick, which you have to do at the top of the draft, you can find a couple of things. His slider, curve, and changeup are all weapons, but none are the true plus to plus-plus finishers you see in Reid Detmers', Asa Lacy's, or CJ Van Eyk's curveball or Max Meyer's slider. Still, with his fourth best pitch (his curve) still being an out pitch, I wouldn't be too worried. The second nitpicky thing is health, as Hancock was shut down at the end of his sophomore season with general arm soreness, and 2020 was going to be about proving he could stay on the mound for a full season. It's a small concern considering he throws with very little effort from a durable frame, but it's one that he won't get a chance to assuage this year.
Hancock is the most complete pitching prospect in this year's deep class of pitching prospects. He has a very good chance to be an ace and aside from the injury risk that all pitchers face, he's about as low risk as it gets for pitchers. That's a fantastic outlook, one that stacks up well against any prospect in this year's class. A potential favorite to go first overall earlier in the spring, he might have fallen just a hair and now fits somewhere between picks four and seven, as it looks unlikely that any of Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, or Asa Lacy will fall out of the top three.
Game footage
Full index of draft profiles here
DoB: 5/31/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-0, 3.75 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 34/3 K/BB in 24 IP
Hancock came into the season drawing numerous comparisons to Casey Mize, a fellow SEC right hander with a similar build, stuff, and track record. Indeed, it was earned – in 2019, Hancock put up a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and did so against a tough SEC slate. However, 2020 was been a bit less steady. He allowed six runs in his opening start against a weaker Richmond lineup, then turned it around by tossing seven shutout innings against another weaker lineup, Santa Clara. Tasked with a stronger Georgia Tech team for his third start, he started strong by getting them to go nine up, nine down with five strikeouts the first time through the order. However, he started to run into trouble in the fourth and ended up allowing four runs over 5.2 innings. In his final start of the season on March 6th, he came back with his best by striking out twelve over 7.1 shutout innings against Massachusetts.
Despite his up and down start to the season, I don't think his stock really dropped too much. Rather, I think the illusion of perfection was kind of popped. Nobody thought he was perfect, but he hadn't done anything *wrong* to that point, so we were left with this image of an SEC ace who would just go in and put in consistent dominant outings against some of the best lineups in college baseball. Of course we know that pitchers are going to have off days, and he had a couple in 2020, but that doesn't change his projection as a future ace. Hancock stands 6'4" and sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which he backs up with a full arsenal of secondary pitches. His slider is his primary weapon with its late bite that plays extremely well off his fastball due to his ability to tunnel them together. Hancock also adds a curveball and a fading changeup, both of which miss plenty of bats and could be above average or plus pitches. To tie it all together, he brings well above average command and the ability to control the strike zone, and he's walked just three batters in 24 innings this season.
Overall, he checks all the proverbial "boxes" of a future ace: tall, throws hard, full set of secondaries, throws strikes, and has stayed mostly healthy. However, if we want to nitpick, which you have to do at the top of the draft, you can find a couple of things. His slider, curve, and changeup are all weapons, but none are the true plus to plus-plus finishers you see in Reid Detmers', Asa Lacy's, or CJ Van Eyk's curveball or Max Meyer's slider. Still, with his fourth best pitch (his curve) still being an out pitch, I wouldn't be too worried. The second nitpicky thing is health, as Hancock was shut down at the end of his sophomore season with general arm soreness, and 2020 was going to be about proving he could stay on the mound for a full season. It's a small concern considering he throws with very little effort from a durable frame, but it's one that he won't get a chance to assuage this year.
Hancock is the most complete pitching prospect in this year's deep class of pitching prospects. He has a very good chance to be an ace and aside from the injury risk that all pitchers face, he's about as low risk as it gets for pitchers. That's a fantastic outlook, one that stacks up well against any prospect in this year's class. A potential favorite to go first overall earlier in the spring, he might have fallen just a hair and now fits somewhere between picks four and seven, as it looks unlikely that any of Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, or Asa Lacy will fall out of the top three.
Game footage
2020 MLB Draft: Top 125 Prospects
Here it is, the top 125 prospects for the upcoming MLB Draft, almost enough to fill the entire thing this year. It's a very pitching-heavy class, especially at the college level, in a draft that's almost certainly going to skew college-heavy due to the stoppage in play. Below, I have profiles for the top 100 prospects (plus Dylan Crews). Enjoy.
1. 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State)
2. IF/OF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt)
3. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M)
4. 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State)
5. RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia)
6. CF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA)
7. OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL)
8. LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville)
9. RHP Max Meyer (Minnesota)
10. RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX)
11. RHP Mick Abel (Jesuit HS, OR)
12. OF Heston Kjerstad (Arkansas)
13. OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA)
14. LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee)
15. CF Pete Crow-Armstrong (Harvard Westlake HS, CA)
16. C Patrick Bailey (North Carolina State)
17. OF Robert Hassell (Independence HS, TN)
18. RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA)
19. C/IF Tyler Soderstrom (Turlock HS, CA)
20. C Austin Wells (Arizona)
21. SS Ed Howard (Mount Carmel HS, IL)
22. RHP Cole Wilcox (Georgia)
23. RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State)
24. RHP Cade Cavalli (Oklahoma)
25. RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
26. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami)
27. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn)
28. SS Nick Loftin (Baylor)
29. RHP/SS Masyn Winn (Kingwood HS, TX)
30. 3B Jordan Walker (Decatur HS, GA)
31. 1B Aaron Sabato (North Carolina)
32. C Dillon Dingler (Ohio State)
33. SS Casey Martin (Arkansas)
34. RHP Slade Cecconi (Miami)
35. RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
36. RHP Alex Santos (Mount St. Michael HS, NY)
37. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State)
38. RHP Bobby Miller (Louisville)
39. RHP Carson Montgomery (Windermere HS, FL)
40. 2B Justin Foscue (Mississippi State)
41. LHP Dax Fulton (Mustang HS, OK)
42. RHP CJ Van Eyk (Florida State)
43. SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
44. RHP Cole Henry (Louisiana State)
45. RHP Jared Jones (La Mirada HS, CA)
46. C Drew Romo (The Woodlands HS, TX)
47. C Kevin Parada (Loyola HS, CA)
48. RHP Clayton Beeter (Texas Tech)
49. SS Alika Williams (Arizona State)
50. OF Isaiah Greene (Corona HS, CA)
51. LHP Logan Allen (Florida International)
52. RHP Ryan Hagenow (Farragut HS, TN)
53. RHP Hunter Barnhart (St. Joseph HS, CA)
54. LHP Jared Shuster (Wake Forest)
55. SS Carson Tucker (Mountain Pointe HS, AZ)
56. RHP Kyle Nicolas (Ball State)
57. RHP Victor Mederos (Westminster Christian HS, FL)
58. RHP Jeff Criswell (Michigan)
59. 3B Gage Workman (Arizona State)
60. OF David Calabrese (St. Elizabeth HS, ON)
61. RHP Nick Garcia (Chapman)
62. 3B/RHP Casey Schmitt (San Diego State)
63. RHP Ben Hernandez (De La Salle HS, IL)
64. SS/RHP Colt Keith (Biloxi HS, MS)
65. OF Chase Davis (Franklin HS, CA)
66. LHP Kyle Harrison (De La Salle HS, CA)
67. RHP Alejandro Rosario (Miami Christian HS, FL)
68. RHP Justin Lange (Llano HS, TX)
69. RHP Tommy Mace (Florida)
70. RHP/SS Cade Horton (Norman HS, OK)
71. LHP Ian Seymour (Virginia Tech)
72. OF Enrique Bradfield (American Heritage HS, FL)
73. SS Nick Yorke (Archbishop Mitty HS, CA)
74. RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina)
75. LHP Ricky Tiedemann (Lakewood HS, CA)
76. OF Zach DeLoach (Texas A&M)
77. C Jackson Miller (Mitchell HS, FL)
78. LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State)
79. 3B Drew Bowser (Harvard-Westlake HS, CA)
80. OF Petey Halpin (Mira Costa HS, CA)
81. RHP Markevian Hence (Watson Chapel HS, AR)
82. RHP Kevin Abel (Oregon State)
83. RHP Christian Roa (Texas A&M)
84. LHP Burl Carraway (Dallas Baptist)
85. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt)
86. 1B Blaze Jordan (DeSoto Central HS, MS)
87. RHP Tanner Witt (Episcopal HS, TX)
88. SS Freddy Zamora (Miami)
89. RHP Zach McCambley (Coastal Carolina)
90. OF Kala'i Rosario (Waiakea HS, HI)
91. 3B Yohandy Morales (Braddock HS, FL)
92. RHP Beck Way (Northwest Florida CC, FL)
93. LHP Luke Little (San Jacinto CC, TX)
94. RHP Connor Phillips (McLennan CC, TX)
95. SS Anthony Servideo (Mississippi)
96. RHP Nick Frasso (Loyola Marymount)
97. LHP Nick Swiney (North Carolina State)
98. RHP Ty Floyd (Rockmart HS, GA)
99. RHP Bryce Elder (Texas)
100. RHP Ian Bedell (Missouri)
101. OF Hudson Haskin (Tulane)
102. OF Jace Bohrofen (Westmoore HS, OK)
103. RHP Joe Boyle (Notre Dame)
104. 3B Cayden Wallace (Greenbrier HS, AR)
105. RHP Stevie Emanuels (Washington)
106. LHP Sam Weatherly (Clemson)
107. 3B Coby Mayo (Stoneman Douglas HS, FL)
108. IF/C Zavier Warren (Central Michigan)
109. OF Jake Vogel (Huntington Beach HS, CA)
110. C Daniel Susac (Jesuit HS, CA)
111. RHP Cam Brown (Flower Mound HS, TX)
112. 1B Tyler Keenan (Mississippi)
113. LHP Mason Miller (Mitchell HS, FL)
114. RHP Brandon Birdsell (San Jacinto JC, TX)
115. LHP Adam Seminaris (Long Beach State)
116. SS Milan Tolentino (Santa Margarita Catholic HS, CA)
117. OF Jordan Nwogu (Michigan)
118. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Texas Tech)
119. LHP Nick Griffin (Monticello HS, AR)
120. RHP Trenton Denholm (UC Irvine)
121. 2B Jimmy Glowenke (Dallas Baptist)
122. C Corey Collins (North Gwinnett HS, GA)
123. OF Owen Caissie (Notre Dame HS, ON)
124. RHP Landon Knack (East Tennessee State)
125. RHP Tyler Brown (Vanderbilt)
Removed: #56 OF Dylan Crews (Lake Mary HS, FL), #98 C Kyle Teel (Mahwah HS, NJ)
1. 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State)
2. IF/OF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt)
3. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M)
4. 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State)
5. RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia)
6. CF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA)
7. OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL)
8. LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville)
9. RHP Max Meyer (Minnesota)
10. RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX)
11. RHP Mick Abel (Jesuit HS, OR)
12. OF Heston Kjerstad (Arkansas)
13. OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA)
14. LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee)
15. CF Pete Crow-Armstrong (Harvard Westlake HS, CA)
16. C Patrick Bailey (North Carolina State)
17. OF Robert Hassell (Independence HS, TN)
18. RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA)
19. C/IF Tyler Soderstrom (Turlock HS, CA)
20. C Austin Wells (Arizona)
21. SS Ed Howard (Mount Carmel HS, IL)
22. RHP Cole Wilcox (Georgia)
23. RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State)
24. RHP Cade Cavalli (Oklahoma)
25. RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
26. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami)
27. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn)
28. SS Nick Loftin (Baylor)
29. RHP/SS Masyn Winn (Kingwood HS, TX)
30. 3B Jordan Walker (Decatur HS, GA)
31. 1B Aaron Sabato (North Carolina)
32. C Dillon Dingler (Ohio State)
33. SS Casey Martin (Arkansas)
34. RHP Slade Cecconi (Miami)
35. RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
36. RHP Alex Santos (Mount St. Michael HS, NY)
37. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State)
38. RHP Bobby Miller (Louisville)
39. RHP Carson Montgomery (Windermere HS, FL)
40. 2B Justin Foscue (Mississippi State)
41. LHP Dax Fulton (Mustang HS, OK)
42. RHP CJ Van Eyk (Florida State)
43. SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
44. RHP Cole Henry (Louisiana State)
45. RHP Jared Jones (La Mirada HS, CA)
46. C Drew Romo (The Woodlands HS, TX)
47. C Kevin Parada (Loyola HS, CA)
48. RHP Clayton Beeter (Texas Tech)
49. SS Alika Williams (Arizona State)
50. OF Isaiah Greene (Corona HS, CA)
51. LHP Logan Allen (Florida International)
52. RHP Ryan Hagenow (Farragut HS, TN)
53. RHP Hunter Barnhart (St. Joseph HS, CA)
54. LHP Jared Shuster (Wake Forest)
55. SS Carson Tucker (Mountain Pointe HS, AZ)
56. RHP Kyle Nicolas (Ball State)
57. RHP Victor Mederos (Westminster Christian HS, FL)
58. RHP Jeff Criswell (Michigan)
59. 3B Gage Workman (Arizona State)
60. OF David Calabrese (St. Elizabeth HS, ON)
61. RHP Nick Garcia (Chapman)
62. 3B/RHP Casey Schmitt (San Diego State)
63. RHP Ben Hernandez (De La Salle HS, IL)
64. SS/RHP Colt Keith (Biloxi HS, MS)
65. OF Chase Davis (Franklin HS, CA)
66. LHP Kyle Harrison (De La Salle HS, CA)
67. RHP Alejandro Rosario (Miami Christian HS, FL)
68. RHP Justin Lange (Llano HS, TX)
69. RHP Tommy Mace (Florida)
70. RHP/SS Cade Horton (Norman HS, OK)
71. LHP Ian Seymour (Virginia Tech)
72. OF Enrique Bradfield (American Heritage HS, FL)
73. SS Nick Yorke (Archbishop Mitty HS, CA)
74. RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina)
75. LHP Ricky Tiedemann (Lakewood HS, CA)
76. OF Zach DeLoach (Texas A&M)
77. C Jackson Miller (Mitchell HS, FL)
78. LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State)
79. 3B Drew Bowser (Harvard-Westlake HS, CA)
80. OF Petey Halpin (Mira Costa HS, CA)
81. RHP Markevian Hence (Watson Chapel HS, AR)
82. RHP Kevin Abel (Oregon State)
83. RHP Christian Roa (Texas A&M)
84. LHP Burl Carraway (Dallas Baptist)
85. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt)
86. 1B Blaze Jordan (DeSoto Central HS, MS)
87. RHP Tanner Witt (Episcopal HS, TX)
88. SS Freddy Zamora (Miami)
89. RHP Zach McCambley (Coastal Carolina)
90. OF Kala'i Rosario (Waiakea HS, HI)
91. 3B Yohandy Morales (Braddock HS, FL)
92. RHP Beck Way (Northwest Florida CC, FL)
93. LHP Luke Little (San Jacinto CC, TX)
94. RHP Connor Phillips (McLennan CC, TX)
95. SS Anthony Servideo (Mississippi)
96. RHP Nick Frasso (Loyola Marymount)
97. LHP Nick Swiney (North Carolina State)
98. RHP Ty Floyd (Rockmart HS, GA)
99. RHP Bryce Elder (Texas)
100. RHP Ian Bedell (Missouri)
101. OF Hudson Haskin (Tulane)
102. OF Jace Bohrofen (Westmoore HS, OK)
103. RHP Joe Boyle (Notre Dame)
104. 3B Cayden Wallace (Greenbrier HS, AR)
105. RHP Stevie Emanuels (Washington)
106. LHP Sam Weatherly (Clemson)
107. 3B Coby Mayo (Stoneman Douglas HS, FL)
108. IF/C Zavier Warren (Central Michigan)
109. OF Jake Vogel (Huntington Beach HS, CA)
110. C Daniel Susac (Jesuit HS, CA)
111. RHP Cam Brown (Flower Mound HS, TX)
112. 1B Tyler Keenan (Mississippi)
113. LHP Mason Miller (Mitchell HS, FL)
114. RHP Brandon Birdsell (San Jacinto JC, TX)
115. LHP Adam Seminaris (Long Beach State)
116. SS Milan Tolentino (Santa Margarita Catholic HS, CA)
117. OF Jordan Nwogu (Michigan)
118. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Texas Tech)
119. LHP Nick Griffin (Monticello HS, AR)
120. RHP Trenton Denholm (UC Irvine)
121. 2B Jimmy Glowenke (Dallas Baptist)
122. C Corey Collins (North Gwinnett HS, GA)
123. OF Owen Caissie (Notre Dame HS, ON)
124. RHP Landon Knack (East Tennessee State)
125. RHP Tyler Brown (Vanderbilt)
Removed: #56 OF Dylan Crews (Lake Mary HS, FL), #98 C Kyle Teel (Mahwah HS, NJ)
Friday, March 13, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Spencer Torkelson
1B Spencer Torkelson, Arizona State
Full index of draft profiles here
DoB: 8/26/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 2 SB, 15/31 K/BB in 17 games
When the sports world went dark, Spencer Torkelson occupied the number one spot on my top draft prospects list and it looks like he'll stay there for the foreseeable future (*update, I've since gone back and forth on the two for a while). Now looking like the favorite to go first overall, he draws a lot of comparison the White Sox' Andrew Vaughn. Both Torkelson and Vaughn come from Pac-12 programs, put up ridiculous numbers there, play first base, are similarly built, bat and throw right handed, possess plus raw power and strong plate discipline, and even grew up just a couple towns apart in Sonoma County, California. While Vaughn might have stronger plate discipline, Torkelson has him beat in the power department, and they both are likely to become impact bats at the major league level.
Torkelson's value is drawn from the bat. He hit .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs as a sophomore at Arizona State in 2019, then was following that up with a .340/.598/.780 line through 17 games in 2020 when the season shut down. He possesses plus-plus power that enables him to hit the ball out of any park to any field, but he gets to it with a simple right handed swing that helps all of it play up in games. That gives him easy 40 home run upside, and he should post high on-base percentages as well. He's a very patient hitter who walked in 14.2% of his plate appearances in 2019 then bumped it up to a ridiculous 37.8% in 2020 as teams refused to pitch to him. Defensively, he can at least provide some value as a solid first baseman, maybe not a Gold Glover but one who can make all of the routine plays. Additionally, because he won't turn 21 until August, he's one of the younger college players available this year, the cherry on top of a great offensive profile.
There are very few downsides to Torkelson's profile. He strikes out at a reasonable clip, 15.6% in 2019 and 18.3% in 2020, but it's not nearly enough to be worried about his hit tool. While he'll have to hit to provide value as a first baseman, the risk remains very low as he's a virtual lock to hit at a high level. There is no question it's one of the best bats to come around in years.
I think his most probable outcome as a player is something along the lines of Pete Alonso's rookie year as a first baseman who can anchor a lineup with big raw power and get to it consistently. While that may not be the most exciting upside as a first overall pick, I would say he has a much better chance of reaching that upside than the typical early draft prospect has of reaching his own upside. It's exciting think about what he could do in the middle of a big league lineup, and the Tigers' offense-starved system could really use a bat like that to get things going. If they decide to go another route, I don't see how the Orioles could pass up his bat at pick #2.
Batting practice video
Game footage
Full index of draft profiles here
DoB: 8/26/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 2 SB, 15/31 K/BB in 17 games
When the sports world went dark, Spencer Torkelson occupied the number one spot on my top draft prospects list and it looks like he'll stay there for the foreseeable future (*update, I've since gone back and forth on the two for a while). Now looking like the favorite to go first overall, he draws a lot of comparison the White Sox' Andrew Vaughn. Both Torkelson and Vaughn come from Pac-12 programs, put up ridiculous numbers there, play first base, are similarly built, bat and throw right handed, possess plus raw power and strong plate discipline, and even grew up just a couple towns apart in Sonoma County, California. While Vaughn might have stronger plate discipline, Torkelson has him beat in the power department, and they both are likely to become impact bats at the major league level.
Torkelson's value is drawn from the bat. He hit .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs as a sophomore at Arizona State in 2019, then was following that up with a .340/.598/.780 line through 17 games in 2020 when the season shut down. He possesses plus-plus power that enables him to hit the ball out of any park to any field, but he gets to it with a simple right handed swing that helps all of it play up in games. That gives him easy 40 home run upside, and he should post high on-base percentages as well. He's a very patient hitter who walked in 14.2% of his plate appearances in 2019 then bumped it up to a ridiculous 37.8% in 2020 as teams refused to pitch to him. Defensively, he can at least provide some value as a solid first baseman, maybe not a Gold Glover but one who can make all of the routine plays. Additionally, because he won't turn 21 until August, he's one of the younger college players available this year, the cherry on top of a great offensive profile.
There are very few downsides to Torkelson's profile. He strikes out at a reasonable clip, 15.6% in 2019 and 18.3% in 2020, but it's not nearly enough to be worried about his hit tool. While he'll have to hit to provide value as a first baseman, the risk remains very low as he's a virtual lock to hit at a high level. There is no question it's one of the best bats to come around in years.
I think his most probable outcome as a player is something along the lines of Pete Alonso's rookie year as a first baseman who can anchor a lineup with big raw power and get to it consistently. While that may not be the most exciting upside as a first overall pick, I would say he has a much better chance of reaching that upside than the typical early draft prospect has of reaching his own upside. It's exciting think about what he could do in the middle of a big league lineup, and the Tigers' offense-starved system could really use a bat like that to get things going. If they decide to go another route, I don't see how the Orioles could pass up his bat at pick #2.
Batting practice video
Game footage
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