Tuesday, August 29, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Boston Red Sox

Full list of draftees

The Red Sox had seven of the first 151 picks in this year's draft due to the losses of Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi, giving them a lot more wiggle room to get creative. Indeed, after a fantastic first pick in which they saved over $650,000 on a consensus top ten talent in Kyle Teel, they used their next two picks to go nearly $2 million over slot combined and bring in two of the better high school bats in the class. In all, the Red Sox were more focused on contact bats than they have been in years past, perhaps looking to balance after previously searching for power bats in the middle rounds.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-14: C Kyle Teel, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $4.66 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($663,100 below slot value).
My rank: #8. MLB Pipeline: #7. Baseball America: #10. Prospects Live: #6.
Taking draft position and signing bonus into account, this may be one of the best picks of the entire first round. Kyle Teel was a virtual consensus top ten prospect in this draft, but lasted until the Red Sox at pick #14. Not only that, but they got him for a large under slot signing bonus, signing him for less than the slot value of the #18 pick and saving more than $650,000 against their bonus pool. Teel is a big time addition to the Red Sox' system, with many scouts pointing to the notion that he may have the quickest path to becoming one of the best at his position in the majors of any player in this draft. He was a potential top 100 pick as a high school senior in 2020, but pulled his name from the draft and made it to campus at Virginia, where he immediately established himself as one of the best catchers in the ACC. However, he took a step back in 2022 and hit "just" .276/.402/.439 on the season before really struggling over the summer both with the US Collegiate National Team and on the Cape (.146/.271/.195 combined in 14 games). Eager to re-establish himself as a blue chip prospect in 2023, he did so and then some with a massive junior campaign in which he slashed .407/.475/.655 with 13 home runs and a 36/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. Previously employing a rigid, noisy setup, he cleaned that up in 2023 and it paid major dividends. His setup is still rhythm-based, with reduce stabbing action in his load before exploding onto the ball with average power. Teel employs a professional approach at the plate, working counts well and making plenty of contact (you don't hit .400 if you don't), so the hit tool is comfortably above average. Together, that could mean 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, with something of a Joe Mauer offensive ceiling (maybe sans that outlier 2009 MVP season). The North Jersey native is also a much better athlete than most at his position, with the ability to play the infield or outfield if needed. His athleticism helps him behind the plate as well, where he's a solid blocker and receiver with a plus arm, so he'll stick back there and the extra positions will help his profile more in the form of versatility than a backup option. Teel has continued his hot hitting ways so far in pro ball, slashing .435/.534/.565 with one home run and a 7/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games between the Florida Complex League and High A Greenville.

2-50: 3B Nazzan Zanetello, Christian Brothers HS [MO] {video}
Slot value: $1.7 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($1.3 million above slot value).
My rank: #42. MLB Pipeline: #52. Baseball America: #110. Prospects Live: #54.
Nazzan Zanetello was a consensus second round prospect (not sure what Baseball America is doing over there), but the Red Sox are clearly smitten with the star infielder after giving him close to the slot value for the #27 pick here at #50 to sign away from an Arkansas commitment. And with good reason. Zanetello is extraordinarily talented and has been coming into his own on the field in a big way, and Boston is thrilled to get in on the ground floor. He has lightning quick hands in the box that help him produce explosive bat speed, giving him above average raw power that could grow into more in time as he fills out his 6'2" frame and learns to elevate with authority. He has gotten streaky against higher quality pitching and will likely need some refinements to that right handed swing, though he has already impressed evaluators with his ability to take professional at bats. With the bat speed, line drive-oriented stroke, and a bat path that can get choppy at times, the Red Sox have a lot to play with to mold him into the kind of hitter they'd like him to be. I could see Zanetello developing in any number of directions offensively, but I'm confident the end product will be a good one. His athleticism also plays on the defensive side, where he ranges well side to side and his strong arm helps make him a pretty complete defender. The Red Sox interestingly drafted him as a third baseman when I thought he had a chance to at least try his hand at shortstop, but the St. Louis native should be above average at the hot corner. This is an exciting profile to mold from a young age, though he has started slowly, slashing .158/.319/.237 with a 15/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Salem.

3-83: SS Antonio Anderson, North Atlanta HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: $846,800. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($653,200 above slot value).
My rank: #59. MLB Pipeline: #77. Baseball America: #68. Prospects Live: #87.
The Red Sox spent big again in the third round, going more than $650,000 above slot value to sign Antonio Anderson away from a Georgia Tech commitment. He's already a very well-rounded hitter with a chance to be above average all around. A switch hitter, he has a more power-oriented stroke from the left side but is a bit quicker and more line drive-oriented from the right. Already physically mature at 6'3", 205 pounds, the ball really jumps off his bat to all fields and he doesn't have to sell out to get to his power. He also takes very professional at bats and makes lots of contact, though his left handed swing can get long when he does begin searching for power. Many high school switch hitters take longer to develop, but Anderson should be able to make the jump to pro ball pretty seamlessly. He's certainly more about strength over athleticism, with fringy speed and more methodical actions in the field rather than the quick twitch you see from most shortstops. For that reason, I actually thought Nazzan Zanetello had a better shot at sticking at shortstop, but the Red Sox drafted Zanetello as a third baseman and Anderson as a shortstop. It's mostly symbolic, but it does provide a lens into the organization's aspirations. The Atlanta native has plenty of arm strength and should be able to handle third base so long as he doesn't slow down too much more, where he profiles as an all-around impact bat that can hit near the middle of the lineup. So far, he's slashing just .167/.259/.250 with a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Salem, but of course it's very early.

4-115: RHP Matt Duffy, Canisius {video}
Slot value: $580,200. Signing bonus: $350,000 ($230,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #474. Prospects Live: #234.
Kyle Teel's discount only covered Antonio Anderson's bonus, so the Red Sox began saving money for Nazzan Zanetello here with Matt Duffy. Not to be confused with Royals infielder Matt Duffy or with recent Astros infielder Matt Duffy, this Matt Duffy has been a consistent stalwart for Canisius for a while now. In 2023, he posted a 4.32 ERA and a 124/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings. Duffy has a bit of a back-end starter profile for now, but there's more in the tank. For now, he sits around 90, usually a tick above, and tops out around 95 with his fastball. He has tremendous feel for his breaking balls but at this point they're a bit soft, and he does work in a solid changeup. It's not the most exciting profile on the surface, but the Red Sox have reason to believe there is upside to tap. The 6'2" righty is extremely athletic on the mound, getting great extension while also generating riding life on his fastball, making the pitch play well above its modest velocity. His athleticism also helps him fill the strike zone with above average command, and he's projectable enough to see perhaps a few ticks of added velocity once he gets stronger. That added velocity will really benefit his breaking balls, because with a little more power, he could really keep hitters off balance with his feel to manipulate shape and locate. The Toronto-area native gives the Red Sox a lot to play with here. He tossed a clean inning in his Florida Complex League debut, striking out one.

4C-132: SS Kristian Campbell, Georgia Tech {video}
Slot value: $492,700. Signing bonus: $492,700.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #255. Prospects Live: #245.
There were a lot of famous high contact, lower power bats in this year's class, and Kristian Campbell was perhaps considered a tier behind names like Christian Knapczyk and Tommy Hawke, but the Red Sox saw something in him and popped him for full slot value here in the post-fourth round compensation round. Campbell didn't play as a true freshman in 2022, and because he was old for his class he was already draft eligible as a sophomore, so he need to establish himself quickly. He certainly did so, slashing .376/.484/.549 with four home runs and a 17/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games. Campbell is an elite contact hitter with exceptional bat to ball skills, leading to just a 7.8% strikeout rate despite a fairly aggressive approach that has him offering at balls all over the zone. He sets up in a bit of a crouch with his weight held over his back leg, then rocks forward to send line drives around the field. It's mostly a line drive and ground ball approach, but the Atlanta-area native is a big guy at 6'3" and could tap more power as he learns to elevate in pro ball. Given his innate ability to find the barrel consistently, he should have no issue with a swing change that prioritizes power a little bit more. Campbell is also a versatile defender that could end up anywhere on the field, really, though he'll need more refinement to stick in the infield. If he moves to the outfield, his plus speed could help him stick in center field. He is red hot to begin his career, slashing .387/.537/.677 with one home run and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Salem.

4C-133: 2B Justin Riemer, Wright State {video}
Slot value: $487,800. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($12,200 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #185.
One pick after they picked up Khristian Campbell for $492,700, the Red Sox grabbed a very similar profile in Justin Riemer for $500,000. Riemer, like Campbell, did not play his true freshman season, then burst onto the scene with a big redshirt freshman season in 2022 in which he slashed .329/.454/.459 with two home runs and a 12/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. It took him just twelve games to top 2022's home run total this year, but that twelfth game would be his last of the season (and his third home run would be his final at bat) due to a knee injury and he finished slashing .323/.563/.645 with an incredible 2/15 strikeout to walk ratio. As you might expect, Riemer has an elite approach in the box that led to a minuscule 6.0% strikeout rate for his career compared to an extremely high 19.7% walk rate. It's really, really hard to beat him in the zone, but he won't chase out of the zone so as a pitcher you just have to pray for weak contact and trust your defense. Riemer has a quick, whippy right handed swing but at a skinny six feet tall, he has below average power and will always be hit over power. He's a solid runner but the same lack of physicality that limits his power potential also limits his arm, so he'll likely play second base long term. The Northern Virginia native may have just been beginning to break out when he went down with that ill-timed knee injury, and the Red Sox certainly believe he was so they're happy to draft way higher than most boards listed him. 

5-151: LHP Connelly Early, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $408,500. Signing bonus: $408,500.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #305.
Connelly Early spent his first two years at Army then transferred to home to Virginia, where he didn't miss a beat and posted a 3.09 ERA and a 100/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 87.1 innings. Early sits in the low 90's with his fastball which can play up with crossfire action, while also spinning a pair of breaking balls and a changeup that play up from his angle. The changeup is likely the best of his four pitches for now, and together it's a solid big league arsenal. The 6'3" lefty has a nice combination of present physicality and future projection, repeating his delivery well and throwing plenty of strikes. It's a nice back-end starter profile with a chance for more if he can add a little bit of power. Unlike Noah Song, Early will not have to deal with a military service commitment.

11-328: OF Nelly Taylor, Polk State JC [FL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($150,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #432.
The Red Sox spent the last of their bonus pool money on Nelly Taylor, a Florida JuCo product that had been committed to transfer to Florida State. Taylor had a great season at Polk State, where he slashed .353/.467/.620 with six home runs, 31 stolen bases, and a 42/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games. As you might expect for a 20 year old JuCo bat, Taylor is fairly raw at the plate but he has a ton of talent. Wiry and strong at 6'1", he has an explosive left handed swing but to this point has hit more balls into the gaps than over the fence. He ran a bit of an elevated strikeout rate at 18.2% with some swing and miss in the zone, so it remains to be seen how he will handle more advanced stuff when pitchers start attacking him over the plate. The Tampa-area native is a plus runner that should stick in center field long term, which will help him profile well as a fourth outfielder if the hit tool doesn't fully come around. There is upside, though, which is why the Red Sox spent an extra $150,000 against their bonus pool to grab him for sixth round money. 

12-358: RHP Max Carlson, North Carolina {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #385. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Carlson family is well known to scouts. Sam Carlson was the 55th overall pick in 2017 and is currently a reliever in High A for the Mariners, while younger brother Max was a well known prospect in high school that made it to campus at UNC. Results were up and down, and he finished his 2023 season with a 5.45 ERA and a 76/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings. Carlson is an extremely athletic right hander that explodes gracefully down the mound, with a long arm stroke and a reasonably clean delivery. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95 at best, and his changeup plays off it beautifully with fading action to the arm side. To find success in pro ball, he'll have to get more consistent with spinning the breaking ball, as he doesn't really trust it at this point and prefers to live in the zone with the fastball and changeup. Carlson pounds the strike zone but is definitely more control over command, and his lack of an effective breaking ball can lead to him getting hit over the plate. While he has been used almost exclusively as a starter in Chapel Hill, he's probably a reliever long term and I think he could be an interesting prospect in that role. Like Matt Duffy, he tossed a clean inning in his Florida Complex League debut, striking out two.

18-538: LHP Zach Fogell, Connecticut {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
It took eighteen rounds, but the Red Sox did draft a New Englander here at the end of the draft. Zach Fogell grew up in Cumberland, Rhode Island, attending Cumberland High School in the northeastern corner of the state just 32 miles southwest of Fenway Park. He spent the first four years of his career at Brown University, but only pitched in 2019 and 2022 due to the Ivy League's extreme lockdown measures that extended through the entire 2020 and 2021 seasons. Transferring to UConn for his graduate year, he dominated the Big East to the tune of a 1.87 ERA and a 45/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings exclusively as a reliever. Fogell sits in the low 90's with his fastball, which can have some sneaky late life at times. His slider has nice depth and can really be tough on lefties, while his changeup is a third pitch that can get firm. The 5'11" lefty has fringy command and profiles best as a left handed middle reliever in pro ball, where that fastball/slider combination will be tough in a matchup situation. He allowed a hit and a walk in his first one inning appearance in the Florida Complex League, but he got out without any damage and earned a strikeout.

Sunday, August 27, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Chicago White Sox

Full list of draftees

The White Sox brought on a wide variety of skill sets in this class, with no two players possessing the same profile. It started with Jacob Gonzalez, at one point considered a top five talent in the class, on a large under slot deal, and that helped them later land Chicago-area native George Wolkow for a massive over slot bonus in the seventh round. Overall, I think it's a decent class that could provide contributors in a lot of different roles.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-15: SS Jacob Gonzalez, Mississippi {video}
Slot value: $4.49 million. Signing bonus: $3.9 million ($588,600 below slot value).
My rank: #15. MLB Pipeline: #18. Baseball America: #11. Prospects Live: #7.
Jacob Gonzalez was considered a potential top five prospect in the class entering the season and didn't really do too much to relinquish that status, so the White Sox getting him here in the middle of the first round for a sizable discount (close to slot value for pick #19) is very nice value. He burst onto the scene with a massive freshman season in 2021 (.355/.443/.561), then bounced back from an up and down sophomore year (.273/.405/.558) with another strong junior season, slashing .327/.435/.564 with ten home runs and a 28/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He's an extremely professional hitter and always has been, walking more than he struck out in each of his three seasons in Oxford. He has some of the best hand-eye coordination in the class, making a ton of contact both inside and outside the zone and rarely ever striking out. This enables him to have success with a fairly unorthodox swing, in which he throws his weight up the first base line to yank balls hard to the pull side and generate strong batted ball data. For most, this selling out to the pull side would cause them to pull off soft stuff away and many teams were lower on him for that reason. However, Gonzalez's barrel control enables him to reach those tougher pitches and he's made this approach work extremely well against strong competition in the SEC, so I'm not particularly concerned about his ability to make it work in pro ball. The only concern is that if he does need to begin employing a more balanced, all-fields approach in the upper minors or in the majors, it could take away from his power production which is maximized by his current approach. As it stands, the Southern California product has above average power, but it could drop to average with a more refined approach. Still, it's very reasonable to expect 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages as the median outcome, and he could be a 20-25 home run bat or more with those high on-base percentages at his ceiling. A below average runner, he has shown well at shortstop anyways because of his strong internal clock and body control, with a strong arm that aids his cause. He may move to third base in the future, where he should be at least an average defender if not above average. He hasn't quite gotten going yet in pro ball, where he is slashing .216/.305/.284 with one home run and a 16/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 23 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Kannapolis.

2-51: RHP Grant Taylor, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $1.66 million. Signing bonus: $1.66 million.
My rank: #77. MLB Pipeline: #102. Baseball America: #80. Prospects Live: #79.
Last year, the White Sox took a second round chance on an injured SEC hurler while he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. A year after taking Peyton Pallette out of Arkansas, the White Sox did it again in grabbing Grant Taylor out of LSU despite the fact that he has just 31 collegiate innings under his belt after missing 2023 with Tommy John surgery. Taylor had an unremarkable freshman season in 2022, but really made a name for himself with a strong run through the Cape Cod League (2.14 ERA, 30/2 K/BB in 21 IP) and continued to show well in fall practice. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can reach back for the upper 90's early in starts, with the ability to cut or ride it depending on what he needs. Taylor can really spin a breaking ball, with a potentially plus curveball in addition to an above average slider that he has begun to effectively work into a cutter, though to this point he hasn't used his changeup much. It's a really nice pitch mix that could produce five average or better pitches once he gains more conviction in his changeup, and it all comes from a sturdy 6'3" frame that should lend itself well to starting. Beyond health, the main question mark is command, as Taylor ran an elevated 13.9% walk rate as a freshman in 2022 but pounded the zone with conviction on the Cape and in fall practice. If he can hold that command together, and the White Sox believe he can, he has a shot to be a mid-rotation starter.

3-84: RHP Seth Keener, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $833,900. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($33,900 below slot value).
My rank: #91. MLB Pipeline: #108. Baseball America: #131. Prospects Live: #66.
Seth Keener was ineffective as a freshman then stepped into a larger role as a sophomore, but still put up an uneven performance. He always had the arm strength, though, and put it together for an excellent junior season in which he posted a 2.69 ERA and a 94/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.1 innings despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home park. Keener has electric stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching 97 with his fastball, which comes in with some hop to boot. He leans heavily on a plus slider and still misses a ton of bats even when hitters know it's coming, while his changeup has the makings of a solid average pitch. Everything plays up because he gets great extension down the mound, a product of his great athleticism and mature 6'2" frame. While he's more of a control over command type, he repeats his delivery well and pounds the strike zone with conviction, so his misses still tend to be competitive offerings that keep him in every at bat. Keener is a Cape performer (2.61 ERA, 29/11 K/BB) and has a chance to start in pro ball even though he served as a swingman at Wake Forest. So far, he has allowed one run over six innings on seven strikeouts and two walks in the Arizona Complex League.

4-116: C Calvin Harris, Mississippi {video}
Slot value: $574,600. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($25,400 above slot value).
My rank: #183. MLB Pipeline: #133. Baseball America: #167. Prospects Live: #157.
In the fourth round, the White Sox picked up a semi-local kid in Calvin Harris. Harris is a native of Peosta, Iowa, a small town just west of Dubuque near the Field of Dreams site and about three and a half hours northwest of Chicago. He has been a very productive hitter for Ole Miss the past two seasons, and in 2023 slashed .321/.398/.579 with 12 home runs and a 40/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. Four of those home runs, a third of his season total, came in one game against Missouri on May 6th in what was the offensive performance of the season in college baseball. Overall, Harris lacks a standout tool but does a lot of things well. He clearly has some power, though overall it's probably closer to average in the long run, a product of his sturdy 6' frame packed with plenty of strength. He does a decent job of controlling the zone and makes a fair amount of contact, with a very reasonable 16.4% strikeout rate and a nice 11.9% walk rate this past spring. SEC pitching did expose some holes in his swing, but he did perform well regardless. In drafting him this high, a bit ahead of where most boards had him, the White Sox clearly believe in his ability to catch, which is a question mark for some evaluators. He handles himself well behind the plate with solid glovework, though he hasn't fully regained his arm strength after recovering from Tommy John surgery. If he can get that done, he has a chance to be an average defender with an average bat – not the most exciting profile, but pretty valuable for a catcher. So far, he's slashing .244/.355/.321 with one home run and an 18/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Kannapolis.

5-152: LHP Christian Oppor, Gulf Coast JC [FL] {video}
Slot value: $404,700. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($145,300 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #225. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #329.
Christian Oppor gives the White Sox another small town Midwesterner, having grown up in Columbus, Wisconsin a little northeast of Madison and about two and a half hours northwest of Chicago. The A's took him as a draft and follow prospect but ultimately did not come to terms with him, allowing him to be available to the White Sox here in the fifth round for fourth round money. Oppor had an inconsistent season for Gulf Coast JC in Florida, where he posted a 6.24 ERA and a 76/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.1 innings, but the White Sox are buying the athleticism and arm strength here. Oppor touched 98 early in the spring but sat more in the low 90's throughout the season, with some flat plane from a lower release point. While the fastball is his best pitch, he does show solid feel for his changeup that functions as his best offspeed pitch, while his slider is very much a work in progress. Oppor is very young, having only turned 19 in July, making him younger than some high school seniors in this draft class. He also has a very athletic delivery and accesses his prodigious arm talent with ease, so once the White Sox help him begin to repeat that delivery better, his strike throwing should improve from the below average grade it has now to something closer to average. There is a lot to work with here from the 6'2" lefty even if he is a long way off. He has allowed two runs (one earned) over 7.2 innings in the Arizona Complex League, striking out nine against two walks.

6-179: LHP Lucas Gordon, Texas {video}
Slot value: $317,400. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($17,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #277. Prospects Live: #466.
Lucas Gordon has a similar feel to Pete Hansen a year ago, as a soft tossing Californian lefty coming out of the University of Texas with a strong track record to his name. Indeed, after putting up a 3.05 ERA and a 77/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.2 innings as a sophomore, he improved to a 2.63 ERA and a 103/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings as a junior this year despite so many other pitchers seeing their numbers take a step back. Gordon sits around 90 with his fastball and tops out around 93-94 with some running action, making for a fringe-average pitch. He can work in a couple of slurvy breaking balls that get nice depth but lack power and bite, so his best pitch is an above average changeup that misses a ton of bats. With an easy, repeatable delivery and a strong track record of above average command, Gordon does have a shot crack it as a back-end starter if he can add a little more power to his stuff. If not, he'll end up as a fastball/changeup lefty reliever that can throw a few innings at a time. In 5.2 innings in the Arizona Complex League, he has allowed two runs (one earned) while striking out eight and walking five.

7-209: OF George Wolkow, Downers Grove North HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: $248,300. Signing bonus: $1 million ($751,700 above slot value).
My rank: #84. MLB Pipeline: #71. Baseball America: #79. Prospects Live: #179.
For the second year in a row, the White Sox gave a seven figure bonus to a high schooler from the Chicago suburbs, following up Oswego East's Noah Schultz last year with Downers Grove North's George Wolkow this year. Wolkow signed way above slot value here in the seventh round, earning early third round money (close to the slot value for pick #73) to sign away from a South Carolina commitment and stay home. He is also the youngest player in the entire 2023 draft as the only kid born in 2006 taken this year (feel old yet?) after reclassifying from the 2024 class. He has earned comparisons to a left handed Aaron Judge due to his massive 6'7", 240 pound frame that you don't see every day from a 17 year old, and he's got the power to match. The ball jumps off his bat as he exerts plus power to all fields, and he tapped it in games around DuPage County this year despite it really only being his junior season. The youth does become apparent with his hit tool, though. Similar to Blaze Jordan a few years back, he was a bit uneven against older competition on the showcase circuit and needs more seasoning in that regard. Like many big sluggers, he can be slow getting going with his swing and sometimes struggles to catch up to quality stuff in the zone. A fringy runner, he'll be limited to an outfield corner in pro ball but his above average arm could help him stick in right field. The White Sox are buying the power here and hope that his youth is the main reason behind his inconsistent hit tool, and that he'll pull it together as he matures. So far in the Arizona Complex League, he is slashing .225/.392/.325 with one home run and a 17/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games.

8-239: OF Eddie Park, Stanford {video}
Slot value: $199,900. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($100 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #196. Prospects Live: #182.
If George Wolkow's youth, size, and power put him on one extreme, then Eddie Park occupies the other extreme. On the older side for a college junior, he's four and a half years older than Wolkow and is coming off his best season for Stanford, slashing .333/.413/.475 with six home runs and a 25/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. Though he hit those six home runs in 2023 (after hitting none in 2021 and 2022), he has near bottom of the scale power with some of the lowest top end exit velocities in the entire class, rarely cracking 100 MPH this year. Instead, he uses his quick left handed swing and short follow through to slap balls around the field, with excellent feel for the barrel and the ability to elevate and turn on the ball when he needs to. Park rarely chases and rarely swings and misses, leading to just a 7.8% strikeout rate in 2023 as he forced defenses to make plays. He doesn't ever need to become a power hitter, though those low exit velocities will put pressure on his ability to continue to use the whole field and find holes, something that gets tougher as pitching and defenses get better in pro ball and the Major Leagues. Park is an above average runner that can stretch for extra bases at times, and that also gives him a shot to stick in center field. Not overly physical, the San Jose native doesn't have much of an arm and will have to move to left field if a better defender locks down center field. He's hitting about as expected so far, slashing .283/.377/.283 with a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Kannapolis.

12-359: RHP Mathias LaCombe, Cochise JC [AZ] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $450,000 ($300,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #372. Prospects Live: #361.
The White Sox emptied the last remaining money from heir bonus pool into Mathias LaCombe, giving him early fifth round money here in the twelfth round. LaCombe is from way off the beaten path, having grown up in Toulouse, South of France before coming over to the states to pitch at Cochise JC in an empty stretch of desert on the Mexican border. After an unremarkable year in 2022, he broke out in 2023 with a 1.74 ERA and a 97/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings, quickly establishing himself as a legitimate prospect. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can reach back for 97 in short stints with running action. His slider has nice sweeping action to it, though it does need to add power, and his changeup is a bit behind the other two. He has a bit of a raw delivery where he looks like he's just flinging the ball at times, but he still repeats it well and fills up the strike zone. With projection remaining on his 6'2" frame, LaCombe is great clay for the White Sox player development program to get their hands on and mold into an impact starting pitcher.

Saturday, August 26, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: San Francisco Giants

Full list of draftees

The Giants dumped $7 million into their first two picks, giving them a two of the best high school prospects in the class at picks #16 and #52. Because second rounder Walker Martin signed for nearly double his slot value, they were forced to go below slot for nearly every pick for the rest of the draft, but they still came away with a very nice class even beyond the two stars at the top. Joe Whitman wasn't supposed to be available at their third pick and certainly wasn't expected to sign for as little as he did, while fourth rounder Maui Ahuna possesses a ton of talent for his $500,000 signing bonus even though his profile comes with significant drawbacks. I like this position player-heavy class a lot.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-16: RHP Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS [VA] {video}
Slot value: $4.33 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($329,100 below slot value).
My rank: #23. MLB Pipeline: #23. Baseball America: #22. Prospects Live: #19.
The Giants drafted Bryce Eldridge as a pitcher, but he's a true two-way player and a darn good one at that. One of the most interesting prospects in the class, he's a product of the same James Madison High School baseball program that I played for almost a decade ago and which has since produced Cubs 2021 second rounder James Triantos. Though he was drafted as a pitcher, I actually prefer his bat. He's a massive presence in the box at 6'7", giving him tremendous leverage in his left handed swing that translates to natural plus power. He doesn't need to sell out for that power, instead flicking his hands at the ball and letting those long arms and legs do the rest. Eldridge is a patient hitter that chooses good pitches to hit, though like many extra tall hitters, his long arms can create some swing and miss in the zone and that's perhaps his only drawback in the box. He is a better runner than you would think given his size, with surprising athleticism that helps him play a pretty nifty first base or could translate well to right field if he moves out there. On the mound, his height helps him create downhill plane that accentuates the running and sinking life on his low 90's fastball. The slider can be inconsistent at times, though at its best it shows hard, late bite and looks like an above average pitch, while his changeup has come along nicely in its own right. There's some minor head whack in his delivery which can lead to some command questions, but he's mostly around the zone and his athleticism should help him grow into that large body well. It's a pretty solid #3 starter profile. One thing to note is that he has missed some time with various nagging injuries over the past few seasons, but he looks fully healthy now. Eldridge has a chance to be a star on either side (or both sides?) of the ball for the Giants. He's only hitting for now, slashing .305/.400/.610 with five home runs and an 18/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 18 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A San Jose.

2-52: SS Walker Martin, Eaton HS [CO] {video}
Slot value: $1.62 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($1.38 million above slot value).
My rank: #21. MLB Pipeline: #30. Baseball America: #24. Prospects Live: #30.
It took nearly double the slot value to sign Walker Martin away from an Arkansas commitment, close to the value of the 27th overall pick, but the Giants got it done and brought in an incredible talent for the second round. Martin simply tormented Colorado high school pitching this spring, and there's no other way to spin it. He has an extremely athletic, projectable 6'2" frame that has done him well on the football field as well, but on the baseball field it gives him plus raw power that he tapped at will in games this spring. Beyond the power, his all fields approach has helped him handle advanced pitching well and he should have at least an average hit tool, giving him a potent all-around bat. Martin moves well at shortstop with quick feet and great athleticism, though he does like to gather himself before he throws and fore that reason he may fit better at second or third base. He's also an average runner, and together it's an extremely well-rounded profile. Perhaps the only true drawback here is his age, as the Colorado native turned 19 back in February, making him a full year older than most high school seniors and age appropriate for a college freshman. Other players with similar age questions such as Brett Baty and Colson Montgomery have performed well, and the hope is that Martin follows their path.

2C-69: LHP Joe Whitman, Kent State {video}
Slot value: $1.07 million. Signing bonus: $805,575 ($268,525 below slot value).
My rank: #49. MLB Pipeline: #37. Baseball America: #35. Prospects Live: #37.
Joe Whitman had serious helium late in the draft cycle, pushing himself into the first round conversation with a strong finish to his junior year and one excellent, highly attended start in the Cape Cod League. Many were surprised to see him drop all the way to the second compensation round, and even more surprised to see him sign for over $250,000 below slot value. If you look at the rankings above, you can see that I wasn't exactly the high man on Whitman, but in this situation that's great value. He's coming off an excellent season at Kent State in which he posted a 2.56 ERA and a 100/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 innings. Whitman sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can run it up to 97 in short stints and consistently touches 95 in longer outings, though the movement on the pitch is more average. His slider is his best pitch with great diving action that helps it miss a ton of bats, while his changeup gives him one of the better left handed cambios in the class. It's a really nice three pitch mix that gets boosted further by solid average command that should be above average in time. The 6'5" lefty is plenty durable and repeats his delivery very well, and it all adds up to a high probability #3 or #4 starter package. Whitman could move quickly through the Giants' system. So far, he has allowed one run over four innings in the Arizona Complex League, striking out four against one walk.

3-85: SS Cole Foster, Auburn {video}
Slot value: $820,900. Signing bonus: $747,500 ($73,400 below slot value).
My rank: #117. MLB Pipeline: #95. Baseball America: #124. Prospects Live: #102.
The Giants went under slot again, as they will do for much of the rest of the draft, here in the third round. Cole Foster was a prominent draft prospect out of Plano Senior High School in Texas in 2020, but made it to campus after the shortened draft and has improved every year at Auburn. He put together a career year in 2023, slashing .336/.429/.570 with 13 home runs and a 50/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games and establishing himself as a top three rounds prospect. There's no one standout tool here, but Foster does a lot of things well with average tools across the board. He's a switch hitter that takes good at bats from both sides of the plate, showing solid power that will play best to the pull side with wood bats that could help him produce 15-20 home runs per season. The bat to ball skills are decent, though he did strike out in 19% of his plate appearances in 2023. The Dallas-area native has experience all over the diamond and could profile in a super-utility role with a solid arm and good glovework in both the infield and outfield, though his lack of true explosiveness may limit his effectiveness at the premium positions of shortstop and center field. If any one of his tools can take the next step in pro ball and get to above average, he has a chance to be an everyday player somewhere on the diamond. So far, he's slashing .250/.281/.467 with five home runs and a pretty ugly 30/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A San Jose.

4-117: SS Maui Ahuna, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $569,100. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($71,600 below slot value).
My rank: #109. MLB Pipeline: #48. Baseball America: #72. Prospects Live: #132.
Maui Ahuna was one of the more polarizing prospects in this year's class, as you can tell by the rankings above, and it turns out that those of us that were lower on him were more in line with the league's perception than those that were higher on him. Ahuna began his career at Kansas, where he thrust himself into first round conversations with a massive sophomore year in 2022 (.396/.479/.634). When head coach Ritch Price retired after the season, he transferred to Tennessee for his junior year but was exposed a bit by SEC pitching, slashing .312/.425/.537 on the year with eight home runs and a 77/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. Still, he remains a very interesting prospect. He's an extremely streaky hitter that can get red hot and carry an offense, showing average power and an all fields approach that leads to plenty of opposite field extra base hits. His left handed swing can get swoopy at times and he can be prone to chasing offspeed pitches below the zone, leading to a fringy hit tool, though that aforementioned willingness to use the opposite field can help him dig himself out of holes in the count. The breaking balls are a major issue, though, as he struck out over 30% of the time this spring and over 50% of the time on the Cape last summer, and I'm not sold on his ability to handle pro offspeed stuff. Ahuna's glove buys the bat some slack, as he's a slick defender at shortstop that can make the big play, with a plus arm to boot that will make him an asset at the position. Throw in his above average speed and you've got yourself a very interesting, versatile defender. The bat may stop him from ever becoming a full time player, but the glove will carry him at least part of the way up the ladder and if he ever reins in his approach, he has a chance to not only play every day but provide impact in the lineup. It's a true boom or bust profile. 

5-153: 2B Quinn McDaniel, Maine {video}
Slot value: $400,600. Signing bonus: $300,450 ($100,150 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #240. Prospects Live: #322.
You don't see many Mainers in pro baseball, but Quinn McDaniel will join fellow Maine Black Bear Nick Sinacola (though a native of Massachusetts) in the Giants' system. McDaniel has been a menace in the America East Conference for a couple years now, putting up his best year yet in 2023 with a .354/.513/.688 slash line, 16 home runs, 32 stolen bases, and a 44/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. It's a pretty unique profile, as it turns out. He sets up with a big, slow leg kick that acts as a timing mechanism, almost touching his hands to his knee before bringing them back up and slashing them through the zone with impressive quickness. Undersized at 5'11", his quick hands help him tap some moderate power to the pull side, though his 16 home runs in 2023 may have been evidence of him teeing off average pitching in the America East. McDaniel is a very patient hitter that walked in 23% of his plate appearances, which will force pro pitchers to come right after him. We'll see if he can tone down his operation in the box enough to handle what's coming. Defensively, his plus speed should help him stick at second base if he can clean up his actions a little bit. The southern Maine native is young for the class, not set to turn 21 until late September, which will give the Giants a little bit of time to play with his fun profile. So far, he's slashing .255/.449/.455 with three home runs and a 16/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A San Jose.

6-180: C Luke Shliger, Maryland {video}
Slot value: $314,800. Signing bonus: $272,500 ($42,300 below slot value).
My rank: #177. MLB Pipeline: #170. Baseball America: #88. Prospects Live: #109.
I'm not quite as high on Luke Shliger as some other outlets, but I certainly think he has an interesting profile regardless. He's been a monster in the Maryland lineup over the past two seasons, slashing .345/.509/.588 with 23 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 98/123 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games combined. Shliger has a very unique approach in the box, setting up with his toes on the inside corner of the batters box in a manner that takes "crowding the plate" to an extreme. Indeed, he's been hit by 44 pitches over the past two seasons, with his 24 this past season finishing eighth in Division I and leading the Big Ten. He's also an extremely patient hitter, running an elite chase rate under 15% this past spring that was the second lowest of any hitter on my draft board and helping him run an exceptional .523 on-base percentage. That elite approach played up on the Cape, where he ran a .404 on-base percentage against some of the best arms in the country. The bat itself is a little more ordinary, though, with below average power that was made to look better by his hitter-friendly home park. He has a quick, uppercut lefthanded swing that helps him maximize what he does have, but with a 90th percentile exit velocity just over 100 and a maxed out 5'9" frame he's unlikely to be much of a power threat in pro ball. The Connecticut native is built like a catcher with a thick, stocky frame, and while he's scrappy back there with a catcher's mindset, his overall actions are more average with an average arm. He should stick but won't necessarily be an asset defensively. Overall, I struggle to see much upside here beyond that of a backup catcher, which is why my ranking was a bit behind the other publications, but he does possess that coveted outlier trait in his approach. His early numbers are right in line with expectations, slashing .279/.380/.326 with a 6/5 strikeout to walk ratio through 12 games with Low A San Jose.

8-240: RHP Josh Bostick, Grayson JC [TX] {video}
Slot value: $198,800. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($198,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #176. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #251.
Though most of their bonus pool money was tied up by Walker Martin in the second round, the Giants managed one more significant over slot bonus for Josh Bostick, giving him fifth round money to sign away from a UT Arlington commitment. Bostick has bounced around the JuCo scene and landed at Grayson JC in North Texas this past spring, then went on to impress in a short Cape Cod League stint before the draft. He sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 98 at best, up significantly from last year (where I am 40% sure I hit a double off of him in a Dallas-area men's league game, but it was probably his brother, I can't remember), with some nice riding action as well. His secondaries are inconsistent but his slider flashes above average, while his changeup is fringier. He's still learning to harness his improved stuff but he has a ton of arm strength and doesn't need to expend too much effort to reach his velocity, giving hope he can have at least average command down the line. If Bostick can bring his changeup and command along just a little farther, he has a chance to be a #4 starter. So far, he has allowed two earned runs over 4.2 innings with seven strikeouts to two walks in the Arizona Complex League.

11-330: C Jack Payton, Louisville {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($25,000 above slot value).
My rank: #195. MLB Pipeline: #148. Baseball America: #116. Prospects Live: #306.
Jack Payton was eligible last year, but has steadily improved during his time at Louisville and worked his way into being a very solid prospect in this year's draft. He tripled his home run total from four to twelve while slashing .374/.472/.642 with a 41/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games, looking like one of the few bright spots on a disappointing Cardinals team this year. Payton has fringy to average tools across the board, profiling as a potential backup catcher. His compact right handed swing gets on plane early and naturally elevates the ball, a little reminiscent of former teammate Henry Davis, helping to maximize his fringy raw power in games. His approach is average, with a bit of a tendency to chase but pretty good ability to make contact around the zone. Overall, it's probably a 45 grade hit tool and 45 power, which is useful from a catcher. Behind the plate, he's decent enough to continue getting opportunities to catch in pro ball, but it will take some work and his arm is fringy. If he has to move to a corner outfield spot, I'm not sure his bat will stand up to the increased scrutiny, so his best route to the majors is certainly through refining his defense. So far, he's slashing .289/.360/.400 with a home run and an 11/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A San Jose.

Thursday, August 24, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles

Full list of draftees

The Orioles have gotten better and better at drafting, and this class doesn't disappoint. They only signed one catcher and one infielder, both on day three, instead focusing almost exclusively on outfield and pitching help. Speed is a major theme for the position players here, and of course nobody embodies it better than first round pick Enrique Bradfield. In fact, every outfielder drafted could be described as a plus or better runner. On the mound, the Orioles found athletes that moved well on the mound, looking for malleable clay they could take to the next level in their excellent player development system. Lastly, I'll note that the Orioles brought in some excellent baseball names with this class, my favorites being Tavian Josenberger, Teddy Sharkey, Kiefer Lord, Braxton Bragg, and Blake Money.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-17: OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $4.17 million. Signing bonus: $4.17 million.
My rank: #18. MLB Pipeline: #21. Baseball America: #16. Prospects Live: #16.
Sometimes, you really have to work to make a player profile interesting. Not this time. Enrique Bradfield is one of the most unique players in the class, with an old school brand of baseball that just might be primed for a comeback. A potential top 100 pick out of high school in South Florida, Bradfield priced himself out of the draft and instead headed to Vanderbilt, where he has only built his draft stock. He hit the ground running, literally, with a .336 batting average, a .451 on-base percentage, and 46 stolen bases as a true freshman in 2021, then went a perfect 46 for 46 in stolen bases in 2022. The numbers were down a touch in 2023, where he slashed .279/.410/.429 with six home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 40/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. If you've watched SEC baseball at all over the past three years, you know one thing about Bradfield – he can fly. Indeed, he probably provides more value on the basepaths than any player in all of college baseball, with blazing, top of the scale speed combined with excellent instincts that make him a generational baserunner, plain and simple. In three years at Vanderbilt, he stole 130 bases in 191 games and was caught just 13 times, despite the fact that opposing catchers knew he was running almost every time. Bradfield is no slouch at the plate, either. He's extremely patient with chase rates well below 20%, helping him draw a ton of walks and post a career .425 on-base percentage and a 14.6% walk rate against very strong competition. When he does swing, he rarely misses, with a line drive stroke geared towards all-fields contact that lets his wheels do their thing. He's the consummate leadoff hitter in every way. Built like a string bean at 6'1", his power is below average and will always be below average, though he can ambush you to the pull side and could flirt with double digit home run totals. It's not surprising that his defensive profile mirrors his offensive profile, with that elite speed playing up further due to strong reads and routes that could earn him Gold Gloves in the future. There's not much arm strength here, but his plus-plus range more than makes up for that and he'll provide plenty of value in center field. Overall, it's a very polished profile with a true outlier tool that could provide Baltimore with a leadoff hitter and basestealing threat for years to come. He's on his way there already, slashing .364/.563/.409 with 15 stolen bases and a 10/18 strikeout to walk ratio through fourteen games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

2-53: OF Mac Horvath, North Carolina {video}
Slot value: $1.58 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($182,900 below slot value).
My rank: #58. MLB Pipeline: #82. Baseball America: #67. Prospects Live: #60.
Mac Horvath is a pretty interesting prospect in his own right that does a lot well. He was a solid prospect as a draft eligible sophomore in the 2022 draft, but returned to UNC and put up a huge junior season, slashing .305/.418/.711 with 24 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 61/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. Horvath provides a coveted combination of power and athleticism that is hard to find, especially outside the first round. He packs plenty of lean strength into his 6'1" frame, which he combines with an innate ability to lift the ball with authority to produce plus game power, in fact blasting 42 home runs in 123 games over the past two seasons and popping for seven in the elite Cape Cod League. Horvath is also a very disciplined hitter that, like Enrique Bradfield, rarely chases, helping him consistently find pitches he can drive. The pure bat to ball skills are more average here because he does have a power-over-hit approach, and he does get into trouble in some of those deeper counts with a strikeout rate north of 20%. There are also some concerns about his ability to catch up to premium velocity, though he did slash .250/.330/.490 on the Cape. The Minnesota native is also a plus runner and uses his athleticism well at third base with plenty of range, though he could use a little more refinement on the defensive side. He could end up in a corner outfield spot, and that's where the Orioles drafted him, where his speed and arm strength will play well. Horvath's ability to time up premium stuff in the zone will determine how far he goes in pro ball, but the ceiling here is that of a 25-30 home run hitter that draws plenty of walks, steals some bases, and plays a solid third base. That's a nice profile even if the batting averages may never be anything special. They're certainly special to this point in the minors, where he's slashing .346/.500/.692 with a pair of home runs and a 9/7 strikeout to walk ratio through eight games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

CBB-63: RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $1.24 million. Signing bonus: $1.61 million ($361,800 above slot value).
My rank: #50. MLB Pipeline: #167. Baseball America: #69. Prospects Live: #58.
As it turns out, the Orioles ended up giving Jackson Baumeister about $200,000 more than they gave Mac Horvath, signing him to just over the slot value for Horvath's draft position. Baumeister is a bit of a divisive prospect, but I'm fully on board with this pick and he actually has many similarities to current Orioles prospect Chayce McDermott. Baumeister was a premium prospect out of Jacksonville's Bolles School, alma mater of Chipper Jones, in 2021, but made it to campus at Florida State and was eligible as a sophomore this year. His 2023 numbers weren't the prettiest, with a 5.09 ERA and a 95/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings, but they were pretty solid for the offense-friendly environment we found ourselves in this year. Baumeister sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 98, playing up with flat plane and hop that make it a plus pitch. Though he's still refining his breaking balls, he shows great feel to spin them, especially his above average curveball with power snap. He's working in his slider more as well and that should become at least an average, if not an above average pitch in the future. The changeup is also a work in progress and probably a fourth pitch at this point, as he can slow down his arm at times that lacks big tumble. The 6'4" righty has plenty of projection remaining and showcases his athleticism on the mound, with great extension and an explosive lower half that mean the sky could be the limit. The command isn't quite there yet as he's still learning to repeat that explosive delivery, and that does make for some relief risk. Personally, I'm bought in, and I think the Orioles have a great opportunity to take this excellent ball of clay and refine it into a mid-rotation arm. The fastball, feel for spin, and athleticism are there, so he really just needs refinement.

3-86: RHP Kiefer Lord, Washington {video}
Slot value: $808,200. Signing bonus: $760,000 ($48,200 below slot value).
My rank: #74. MLB Pipeline: #127. Baseball America: #97. Prospects Live: #71.
Kiefer Lord presents another interesting ball of clay for the Orioles' player development system to play with. Originally a product of Carleton College in Minnesota, he transferred to Washington this past season and put up some gems early in the season, including against Northern Colorado (6 perfect innings, 10 K's) and Stanford (8 shutout innings, 3 baserunners, 10 K's). Those starts on the heels of a loud fall put him into top fifty pick consideration, but he slumped later in the season and put up an 18.22 ERA over his final four starts, boosting his season ERA to from 3.63 to 6.19 to go with a 78/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.2 innings. At his best, Lord sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and runs it into the upper 90's, showing some nice life on the pitch to boot. He flashes with both his curveball and his slider, though they can blend into each other and are still searching for their identities a bit, similar to his changeup. His lack of a consistent, reliable offspeed pitch may have contributed to his late season struggles as his fastball velocity dipped, but he's shown enough at his best to inspire confidence he can pull it together. The 6'3" righty is very projectable and moves well on the mound, which bodes well for his ability to hold his stuff over a long season and stick in the rotation, and that athletic delivery helps him pound the strike zone with average command and above average control. If he can take a step forward with any one of his offspeed pitches to keep hitters off his fastball, he becomes a mid-rotation candidate in a hurry. In his first appearance in the Florida Complex League, he tossed two shutout innings on one walk, one hit batsman, and one strikeout.

3-100: OF Tavian Josenberger, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $671,800. Signing bonus: $603,000 ($68,800 below slot value).
My rank: #167. MLB Pipeline: #156. Baseball America: #246. Prospects Live: #125.
This fits into the Orioles' early day two preferences as a high performing outfielder with a smattering of fun tools. Tavian Josenberger, a Kansas transfer, had a breakout season despite the jump in competition from the Big 12 to the SEC, slashing .286/.414/.490 with ten home runs and a 51/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games for the Razorbacks. There is no standout tool here like Enrique Bradfield's speed or Mac Horvath's power/speed combo, but it's an extremely balanced profile reminiscent of recent Orioles picks like Donta' Williams and Reed Trimble. Josenberger is a twitchy athlete that can whip the barrel through the zone with authority from both sides of the plate, producing sneaky pull side power with natural loft. However, I wouldn't expect more than perhaps 15 home runs per season as he switches over to wood bats as he's not the most physical player in this class at an even six feet tall. He's a patient hitter that draws a ton of walks, in fact doing so at an excellent 17.2% clip this spring, which helps him tap his power more often in games because he finds good pitches to hit. That masks largely average bat to ball skills, and like Horvath, he can get into trouble in deeper counts and ran a strikeout rate above 20%. The Kansas City-area product is a versatile defender that will likely see most of his time in the outfield for Baltimore, where he profiles as a plus defender and could stick in center field. I see this as a fourth outfield profile with a solid all-around bat and nice speed. He's off to a bit of a slower start, slashing just .152/.339/.196 with a 12/13 strikeout to walk ratio through 14 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

4-118: RHP Levi Wells, Texas State {video}
Slot value: $563,600. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($63,600 below slot value).
My rank: #107. MLB Pipeline: #96. Baseball America: #111. Prospects Live: #81.
Back to the pitching ranks, Levi Wells has been on scouts' radars for a while now. A well-known prospect out of La Porte High School east of Houston, he made it to campus at Texas Tech but struggled badly with command and transferred a little closer to home at Texas State, where he has fit in much better. After establishing himself as a potential top 50 pick with a strong sophomore season (3.07 ERA, 86/32 K/BB), he was less consistent as a junior and finished with a 5.02 ERA and a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings. He had some gems, including a thirteen strikeout complete game against Marshall, but also some duds, such as a start at Coastal Carolina in which he got blown up for eight runs in an inning and a third. Wells sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96 from a higher slot but getting great riding life on the pitch up in the zone that could make it a plus pitch if commanded more consistently. He adds a big, power curveball that functions as his out pitch, while his newer cutter/slider has developed quickly and his changeup is a bit behind. It's a really nice four pitch mix from a sturdy 6'2" frame that can be hard to find in the fourth round, though to this point he hasn't put it together consistently. Wells' command has really improved during his time in college as he's seriously toned down his delivery, but it's still fringy and he gets into trouble behind in counts when he leaves the ball over the plate. A tick more velocity on his fastball or a bit more consistency with his slider and changeup could render that less of an issue, as he is usually at least around the zone. It's a #3/#4 starter profile if he makes the adjustments he needs to make.

5-154: OF Jake Cunningham, Charlotte {video}
Slot value: $396,700. Signing bonus: $375,000 ($21,700 below slot value).
My rank: #145. MLB Pipeline: #147. Baseball America: #140. Prospects Live: #128.
This is a boom/bust candidate if there ever was one. Jake Cunningham has extremely loud tools that rival those of second rounder Mac Horvath, but how they'll translate to pro ball remains to be seen. Cunningham had a huge sophomore season in 2022 (16 HR, .304/.410/.595) but a poorly timed ankle injury slowed him down out of the gate and he never quite got going fully, finishing 2023 with eleven home runs, a .267/.359/.519 slash line, and a 56/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. He has massive raw power from the right side, at least plus now and potentially greater in the future with 90th percentile exit velocities approaching 107 MPH in 2023. He's also a patient hitter that does a good job of making pitchers come to him, though the hit tool is well below average. Cunningham has long levers and some moving parts in his swing, leading to elevated swing and miss and a strikeout rate over 25% this year. Additionally, he struggled in a small sample on the Cape (.174/.269/.217) and was a non-factor against good competition in the Clemson Regional, where he struck out nine times in sixteen plate appearances. That's not going to cut it at this point. Meanwhile, he didn't get a chance to show it much in 2023 due to the ankle injury, but he's at least a plus runner when healthy if not approaching plus-plus. That speed adds an entire new dimension to his game, which is a major boon for him in the outfield where he projects to stick in center field. The Orioles are bought into the player they saw in 2022 and they believe that the tools are so loud here that it's worth gambling on questionable pure hitting ability. It's a bit reminiscent of the Jud Fabian pick last year, though Fabian was significantly more refined and went a few rounds earlier. In his two games in the Florida Complex League, he has three hits (all singles), two strikeouts, and three walks to this point.

6-181: RHP Jacob Cravey, Samford {video}
Slot value: $312,300. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($12,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #321. Prospects Live: #225.
In a year where many pitchers saw inflated ERA's due to college baseball's hitter-friendly environment, Jacob Cravey put up a career year with a 3.10 ERA and a 126/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings at Samford. Cravey is a big, physical right hander at 6'6", 215 pounds, possessing a low 90's fastball that touches 98 at best with great riding life from a higher slot. His slider has nice two plane bite and his changeup gets solid fade, making for a great baseline of a three pitch mix. The South Alabama native repeats his delivery well and shows average command, so the entire package looks like that of a back-end starter. Cravey is more about arm strength than athleticism or explosiveness, which may limit his ceiling a bit. Still, it's a nice high-probability starter package in the sixth round.

7-211: RHP Teddy Sharkey, Coastal Carolina {video}
Slot value: $244,400. Signing bonus: $215,000 ($29,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #395. Prospects Live: #242.
Teddy Sharkey is the opposite of Jacob Cravey. While Cravey is a somewhat polished innings-eating starter type, Sharkey is a ball of fire that is likely a pure reliever at the pro level. He's coming off a great season as the Coastal Carolina closer in which he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 74/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch 98 with great riding life, while his curveball and slider are both distinct, nasty breaking pitches that miss a ton of bats. The 6' righty has an uptempo delivery and his control is well ahead of his command, so it's unlikely that he makes the jump to starting in pro ball. His demeanor fits well in the bullpen, as he pitches with a ton of energy, attacks hitters with everything he has, and loves to compete. If the Jersey Shore native's command holds together in pro ball, he could move quickly as a reliever. In his first appearance in the Florida Complex League, he tossed two shutout innings on one walk and three strikeouts.

10-301: OF Matthew Etzel, Southern Miss {video}
Slot value: $167,000. Signing bonus: $167,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #229. Baseball America: #257. Prospects Live: #165.
This could be a sneaky good pick for the Orioles. Matthew Etzel began his career at Texas A&M, but quickly transferred to Panola JC in Texas and played two years there, where by the end of his sophomore season he began to earn serious draft consideration. Instead of going pro, he transferred again to Southern Miss where he was more good than great this year. He started slowly, not homering for the first two months of the season, but once he started turning on the ball and driving it with authority he was able to put together solid numbers, with a .316/.381/.470 slash line, 23 stolen bases, and a 50/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. The Orioles are bought into that new and improved Etzel, who has a chance to be a dynamic talent. The Houston-area native has an adjustable barrel and can get to balls all over the zone, though he's less comfortable with offspeed stuff and that's something to watch for in his transition to pro ball. His quick hands and feel for the barrel give him sneaky power, with the chance to hit perhaps 10-15 home runs per season, though it will likely never be a huge part of his game. Etzel is an easy plus runner that can be a menace on the bases, and it also helps him play a pretty mean center field. He likely profiles as a fourth outfielder whose ability to be a net-positive in center will make him a valuable piece. He has had a solid transition to pro ball so far, slashing .278/.409/.481 with two home runs, a dozen stolen bases, and a 14/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

14-421: RHP Michael Forret, State College of Florida Manatee-Sarasota {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $450,000 ($300,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #407. Prospects Live: unranked.
All those little bits of money the Orioles saved here and there on day two added up to something to throw around, and while a few day three picks went unsigned, they landed fourteenth rounder Michael Forret for  early fifth round money. A true freshman this year, Forret posted a 3.34 ERA and a 106/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings on the Florida JuCo circuit, then impressed evaluators with a strong start for Falmouth in the Cape Cod League late in the draft cycle. Overall, the 6'3" righty brings a pretty advanced package for a teenager. He sits in the low 90's, touching 94 with riding life, while adding a nice diving slider and a fading changeup. None of his three pitches stand out as likely strikeout pitches at the next level quite yet, but he commands them well with conviction and offers plenty of projection in his lean frame. Once the Orioles iron out his delivery a little bit and help him tack on some weight, he could be sitting in the mid 90's while holding that above average command. He only turned 19 in April and offers a nice combination of safety and upside for under $500,000.

Monday, August 21, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers played the bonus pool game to perhaps a more extreme extent than any other team. They went way below slot for their first three picks at #18, #33, and #54, giving them closer to the slot values for the #25, #43, and and #63 picks, respectively, saving over $1.7 million in the process. Sandwiched around a couple more below slot bonuses in the fourth and fifth rounds, Milwaukee dumped went about a million dollars above slot, each, on Eric Bitonti and Cooper Pratt, giving them closer to the slot values for the #49 and #60 picks, respectively, at #87 and #182. From there, they saved another $600,000+ in rounds 7-10, then took a unique approach to day three with seven high schoolers and a JuCo arm, reeling in all but three of them with another $1.3 million in above slot bonuses. Still with us? Looking back after the dust settled, I'm actually pretty impressed by the class they pulled together. Milwaukee looked for bats early and I really like the bats they did grab, then pivoted to pitchers later in the hopes that some of their high school arms could be sleepers ready to break out with pro instruction. I'm very interested to see what this unique strategy nets them.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-18: 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $4.02 million. Signing bonus: $3.15 million ($871,400 below slot value).
My rank: #22. MLB Pipeline: #25. Baseball America: #23. Prospects Live: #27.
The Brewers started off this draft with a bang, grabbing one of the best power hitters in the country and saving nearly $900,000 in the process. Brock Wilken has been a sensation ever since he stepped foot on campus at Wake Forest, blasting 17 home runs as a true freshman and in all taking just three seasons to set the all time ACC home run record at 71. Between seasons, he was a menace in the Cape Cod League, slashing .271/.400/.471 over 73 career games with wood bats against elite pitching, and in 2023 had his best year yet slashing .345/.506/.807 with 31 home runs and a 58/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. Yes, he was playing in a hitter-friendly home park at a time when offense was up across college baseball, but the point remains – Brock Wilken can hit. He's a hulking, 6'4", 225 pound slugger that could continue to get stronger, showing off plus-plus raw power that plays to all fields even when he doesn't square it up. It's some of the most natural juice in the class, which could help him hit 40 home runs a year in the majors. Wilken is also a very patient hitter that grinds out his at bats, rarely chasing and doing well to spoil pitches he doesn't like. He mashes velocity but if there's one drawback to the offensive profile, it's that he can get into trouble with breaking balls in some of those deeper counts especially with breaking balls because his bat to ball skills are just average. Fortunately, with his power all he needs is to get most, not even all, of his barrel onto the ball and he can send it a long way. Even though strikeout questions do persist, he dropped his strikeout rate from 24.2% as a sophomore to 18.1% as a junior largely on the back of that disciplined approach. In the field, the Tampa-area native shows off a cannon right arm that will help him stick at third base in the short run, though he's a well below average runner with stiffer actions that may end up at first base in the long run. Still, he has plenty of bat to profile there. Wilken has a chance to hit in the middle of the Brewers' order for a long time. He's already off to a hot start in the minors, slashing .301/.458/.479 with a pair of home runs and a 22/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Arizona Complex League and High A Wisconsin.

CBA-33: RHP Josh Knoth, Patchogue-Medford HS [NY] {video}
Slot value: $2.54 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($543,800 below slot value).
My rank: #45. MLB Pipeline: #98. Baseball America: #41. Prospects Live: #47.
After saving nearly $900,000 on Brock Wilken, the Brewers saved another half a million dollars on Josh Knoth by giving him roughly the slot value for the 43rd pick here at #33, signing him away from an Ole Miss commitment in the process. Knoth shot up boards this spring with an exceptional run through his Long Island competition, showing improved stuff, strike throwing, and mechanics. He sits in the low 90's but now touches 98 with his fastball, a pitch which plays up further due to its riding life from a somewhat low release. His breaking balls have really come into their own this spring. The curveball, his more established weapon, has gotten more consistent with nasty two plane bite, while his newer slider has been more effectively incorporated into the arsenal and in all his innate ability to rip through a breaking ball is ahead of most of the class. Knoth's changeup is a distant fourth pitch, so that will be next up for him in his development. The 6'1" righty isn't the most physical, especially not standing next to Brock Wilken, but he has smoothed out his delivery a bit this spring as he has maintained his balance better through his long trunk rotation, leading to more strikes. You can slap an average grade on the command with a chance for better as he continues to get accustomed to his nasty arsenal, and his extreme youth (he didn't turn 18 until a month after the draft) further improves the profile. Knoth has a chance to be a legitimate #2 starter if he can take the next step with his changeup and maintain his command, with a profile led by plenty of velocity and a couple of plus breaking balls.

2-54: 3B Mike Boeve, Nebraska-Omaha {video}
Slot value: $1.55 million. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($296,100 below slot value).
My rank: #65. MLB Pipeline: #81. Baseball America: #61. Prospects Live: #84.
This is a fun profile for the Brewers, and it saves them nearly another $300,000 in the process. Hailing from the small town of Hastings in central Nebraska, he played his college ball at Nebraska-Omaha in the Summit League and has therefore never really been in the spotlight. However, he improved all three seasons at UNO and put together an exceptional 2023, slashing .401/.512/.563 with four home runs and a 9/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games. Simply put, Boeve was on another level compared to his peers. He utilized an exceptionally disciplined approach and elite bat to ball skills to strike out just 4.3% of the time and run a 90% contact rate, rarely chasing in the process and controlling the strike zone as well as anybody in the country. If you want to think of it as a product of average competition in the Summit League, he also slashed .278/.403/.339 in the elite Cape Cod League and ran a respectable 17.3% strikeout rate there too while walking at an excellent 15.8% clip. Boeve is not overly physical at 6'2",  but he has some sneaky power when he turns on the ball and has a tendency to spray hard ground balls and line drives around the field. The swing is certainly more geared for contact, prioritizing the ability to manipulate the barrel to meet the ball all over the zone and adjust to offspeed stuff. If the Brewers decide to change his game up a little, he does hit the ball hard enough to profile for fringe-average power, perhaps 12-15 home runs per season to go with his high on-base percentages. The defensive profile is more ordinary, as he has some arm strength and some range but not enough to shine on the infield. He'd make an adequate second or third baseman, which might stretch his range or arm a little bit, respectively. Boeve has hit the ground running in pro ball, slashing .370/.435/.630 with five home runs and a 14/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 games between the Arizona Complex League and High A Wisconsin.

3-87: SS Eric Bitonti, Aquinas HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $796,200. Signing bonus: $1.75 million ($953,800 above slot value).
My rank: #38. MLB Pipeline: #68. Baseball America: #59. Prospects Live: #57.
After saving on their first three picks, the Brewers began to unload those savings in a big way with Eric Bitonti, who signed for nearly a million dollars above slot value to drop an Oregon commitment. I'm a huge Bitonti fan, and I think he has a chance to be a really special player if things break right. Tall and athletic at 6'4", he has plenty of lean strength for now and projects to pack on plenty more as he develops. He does not get cheated at the plate, taking big, uppercut hacks from the left side that produce plus raw power right now and could get to plus-plus as he gets stronger. Right there, you already have something cooking. The overall polish in the box is a bit behind, as his barrel can get too steep at times when he's swinging for the fences and it's not all that accurate yet, either. On the bright side, he won't turn 18 until the offseason and is therefore one of the youngest players taken in the entire draft, which to me gives additional confidence that he'll make the adjustments he needs to make to acclimate to professional baseball. Defensively, his length and athleticism give him the a nice foundation at shortstop, but he'll likely move to third base as he fills out where his average speed and explosiveness will fit better. His plus arm will keep him on the left side of the infield. Overall, Bitonti is a bit rough around the edges and has not been quite as consistent as some scouts would like to see, but the upside is tremendous as a potential middle of the order threat that sticks on the infield. As expected, it's taking him a minute to acclimate to pro ball, slashing .179/.333/.410 with two home runs and a 15/9 strikeout to walk ratio through a dozen games in the Arizona Complex League.

4-119: RHP Jason Woodward, Florida Gulf Coast {video}
Slot value: $557,900. Signing bonus: $247,500 ($310,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Jason Woodward went unranked on every public board I've seen, so this is certainly a bit of a surprise pick even if he signed for less than half of slot value. Woodward has been a three year contributor at Florida Gulf Coast and was off to a hot start in 2023, dominating Hofstra and UMass Lowell to the tune of a combined eleven shutout innings with fifteen strikeouts. However, he left his third start of the season early against Florida State and eventually had Tommy John surgery, so the Brewers clearly liked what they saw in February. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and I saw one video of a nice breaking ball, but otherwise there is not much information or video out there on his stuff. In the video of one pitch that I saw, he doesn't throw with a ton of effort and should be able to provide at least average command going forward, which is an extra boon with his high velocity. At 6'1", he still has some projection remaining and he's very young for the class, only turning 21 shortly before the draft. The Florida native did get some exposure in the Cape Cod League last summer, and even though his 8.10 ERA was a little ugly, he controlled the zone nicely and put up a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings. It's likely that additional development of his secondaries will do him well to miss barrels against more advanced hitters. Woodward has beaten bone cancer twice, which is amazing for so many more important reasons off the field but also shows his fortitude to overcome adversity in professional baseball settings going forward.

5-155: RHP Ryan Birchard, Niagara County JC [NY] {video}
Slot value: $392,700. Signing bonus: $322,500 ($70,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #227.
The Brewers continued to save money with Ryan Birchard, a late-rising JuCo arm out of Upstate New York with a fun profile. After putting up two dominant seasons for Niagara County JC, where he produced a 1.43 ERA and a 171/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 combined innings, he really opened eyes in the MLB Draft League on the back of nine innings of one run ball, with sixteen strikeouts to just three baserunners over four appearances. Birchard is a power arm that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 98 in short stints with cut and ride. It's a plus pitch that carries the arsenal for now. His curveball shows plenty of bite and looks above average at its best, though he doesn't always get on top of it and it could use another tick or two of power. He's begun using a sweepier slider later in the season and it's quickly looking like another weapon for him, and at this point his changeup is a distant fourth pitch. The 6' righty has a bit of a stiff delivery that features effort and leads to fringy command, so that fact combined with his lack of a quality changeup and the tendency for his velocity to dip later in starts likely points him to the bullpen. He's also very young for a college sophomore and only turned 20 shortly before the draft, giving him plenty of time to clean up the rougher edges of his profile. Previously committed to UConn, he'll instead have a chance to work his way up as a power armed reliever. 

6-182: SS Cooper Pratt, Magnolia Heights HS [MS] {video}
Slot value: $309,900. Signing bonus: $1.35 million ($1.04 million above slot value).
My rank: #47. MLB Pipeline: #45. Baseball America: #63. Prospects Live: #50.
There were rumors that Cooper Pratt was going to be a very tough sign away from a hometown Ole Miss commitment, and after he lasted into the middle of day two, it appeared that was the reality. However, the Brewers used their massive savings to this point on the draft to go over a million dollars above slot value to swoop in and sign him away, ironically giving him even a little bit less than he might have been expected to get in his projected second round range. In doing so, Milwaukee gets a stud here in the sixth round. Pratt is a long bodied, 6'4" shortstop that has earned comps to Gunnar Henderson from area scouts in the Deep South, though he's not quite at that level. He's an extremely selective hitter with one of the more polished approaches in the high school class, which should enable him to transition pretty smoothly from his northern Mississippi high school competition to pro ball. His big frame and long limbs give him great leverage in his right handed swing, which gives him average power for now but promises to provide at least above average power in the future as he fills out. Pratt does have some length in his swing and his pitch selection is ahead of his pure bat to ball skills, so there can be some swing and miss in the zone especially against well spotted breaking balls and high fastballs, the usual culprits. Overall, it's a very well-rounded offensive profile for a kid his age that could produce 20+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages at peak. An average runner, he may not have the range for shortstop but he does have the arm, with the ability to get plenty of carry on his throws even from a shorter arm stroke that enables him to get rid of the ball quickly. If he can retain his first step quickness, those supplemental tools could help him stick rather than move over to third, where he would be an above average defender. Pratt is a little bit old for the class, having turned 19 shortly before this article was published, a break from the Brewers' trend in this class. He's already swinging a hot bat down in the Arizona Complex League, slashing .356/.426/.444 with an 11/5 strikeout to walk ratio through a dozen games.

11-332: RHP Bishop Letson, Floyd Central HS [IN] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $482,600 ($332,600 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #179. Baseball America: #204. Prospects Live: #105.
The Brewers entered day three with plenty of unspent bonus pool money, so they made Bishop Letson the first of five over slot high school signings in the last ten rounds by giving him late fourth round money to sign away from a Purdue commitment. Letson is all about projection at this point. Previously sitting in the upper 80's, he came out with a low 90's fastball at the PBR Super 60 in February (video link) and regularly reached that velocity this spring, though he can dip back below 90 later in starts. The pitch has running life on it and figures to continue to add velocity. He spins a short, tight slider with both sweeping and diving action, and it has gotten more consistent this spring as he's gotten more comfortable with it. There's a changeup, too, which has taken a step forward. While it's not a particularly loud arsenal at present, he's extremely skinny at 6'4" with a ton of room to add good weight and the Brewers are jumping in early. The Louisville-area native has a reasonably smooth delivery and throws plenty of strikes, having performed very well against southern Indiana high school competition this spring and possessing all the building blocks for a #3 or #4 starter.

12-362: LHP Bjorn Johnson, Lincoln HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $420,500 ($270,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #248. Prospects Live: #406.
Milwaukee's next over slot bonus went to Bjorn Johnson, who picked up fifth round money to sign away from an Auburn commitment. He's another guy without loud "now" stuff that the Brewers will hope to bring along as an impact starter. He has an upper 80's fastball that gets up to around 92 at best, with running life from a lower slot. The breaking ball is fringy to this point and needs work, while his changeup gets nice fade and plays well off his fastball due to his arm slot. Johnson's delivery features heavy pelvic rotation that turns his arm into a bit of a whip, sometimes affecting his release point and his command. The Seattle native likely projects as a reliever but given the money Milwaukee gave him, they're likely interested in his potential to start long term.

14-422: RHP Hayden Robinson, Berwick HS [LA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($197,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
One of the more off-the-radar picks out of the high school class this year, Hayden Robinson comes from the small Atchafalaya River town of Berwick in deep southern Louisiana. Originally committed to Nicholls State just up the road in Thibodaux, he instead signed for early sixth round money to join the Brewers' system. Robinson is a smaller kid at a skinny six feet tall, currently sitting in the upper 80's with his fastball and touching 91 with riding action from a low release point. He can really spin a breaking ball, getting nice two-plane bite on his high spin slider, and shows feel for a changeup. Robinson does pitch with some effort, rocking back and forth throughout his delivery, and overall he'll need to find another gear to stick in the rotation. The Brewers are buying his athletic frame and ability to spin the breaking ball, hoping that velocity will come as he gets stronger even if he's not the tallest kid in the world. It's a fairly unique profile that makes for an interesting follow at the very least.

20-602: LHP Justin Chambers, Basha HS [AZ] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $547,500 ($397,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Brewers' final over slot pick was their largest of day three, handing Justin Chambers fourth round money here in the twentieth round to steer away from a Washington State commitment. Like Hayden Robinson, he's way off the radar and did not rank on any major lists, but the Brewers are clearly convicted here. He sits in the upper 80's and tops out around 92, with a fairly low launch and some carry on the pitch. His sweeping slider is ahead of his big, slow curveball, though both are inconsistent and require further refinement. Right now, I'd argue his best pitch is his changeup, with great fading action and plenty of feel to locate it, unlike many other high high schoolers. The 6'2" lefty has a bit of a stiff delivery at times but for the most part pounds the strike zone with authority. If Milwaukee can help him tack on some velocity and develop the offspeed stuff, Chambers looks like a potential #4 starter. The fact that he's extremely young for the class, turning 18 a month after the draft, also helps.