Reviewing the Boston Red Sox Farm System

A few years ago, the Red Sox were loaded with guys like Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, and Anderson Espinoza, but trades and graduations mean none of them are left in the system. At this point, it's pretty barren and lacks impact prospects, though they do have a nice collection of power bats as well as some live arms with upside. Most of the pitching talent, save for Jay Groome, is closer to the big leagues while the bottom of the system lacks much in terms of marketable arms.

Affiliates: AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, AA Portland Sea Dogs, High A Salem Red Sox, Class A Greenville Drive, Short Season Lowell Spinners, complex level GCL and DSL Red Sox

Power Bats: 3B Michael Chavis, 3B Bobby Dalbec, 1B Josh Ockimey, 1B Triston Casas, OF Nick Decker, 3B Nick Northcut, 3B Danny Diaz, and C Roldani Baldwin
As will be the theme with this farm system, no one player stands out in this group. All of these players come with significant power upside but also struggle with contact, and with Rafael Devers holding down third base, they'll likely all have to compete for the first base job. 23 year old Michael Chavis is closest to the majors, having bounced back from a PED suspension to slash .298/.381/.538 with nine home runs in 46 games between short season ball, AA Portland, and AAA Pawtucket. The fact that he could still slug .538 even after the suspension was a big positive for his prospect stock, and while his plate discipline is improving, he has more work to do if he wants to catch up to major league pitching. There is a good chance he sees the majors in 2019. Right behind him is 23 year old Bobby Dalbec, who strikes out a ton but who seems to defy the odds and continue producing with every promotion. This year, he slashed .257/.361/.558 between High A Salem and AA Portland and was among the minor league leaders with 32 home runs (among 70 extra base hits), and while he had a nice 12.2% walk rate, his strikeout rate was a troubling 32.4%. It seems that should cause problems at AA and AAA, but he fared well enough in his taste of AA this year from a production standpoint (.261/.323/.514, 37.1% K rate) that one could envision an Aaron Judge-lite scenario where he continues to produce even with mounting strikeout totals up the ladder, though probably not at Judge's levels. A third 23 year old, Josh Ockimey, is behind those two on the depth chart and looks more like a platoon bat, having slashed .245/.356/.455 with 20 home runs between Portland and Pawtucket this season. He also strikes out a lot, but he walks a ton and shouldn't be overlooked. Lower down in the minors, 18 year old Triston Casas leads the pack of young power hitters. The 2018 first round draft pick (26th overall) out of a south Florida high school had a season ending thumb injury in just his second pro game, but his long swing produces massive power paralleled only by Dalbec in this system. I have concerns about the length of his swing, but if he can keep it under control and keep the barrel in the zone for a long enough portion of it, his power/patience combination could make him the system's top prospect next year. The swing is just really long and that worries me. Following Casas in the draft were a pair of high school Nicks, 19 year olds Nick Decker and Nick Northcut. Decker, a second round pick (64th overall) out of southern New Jersey, has a similar profile to Casas, while Northcut, an eleventh rounder out of the Cincinnati area who fell due to signability, hits a little differently. Decker has a long swing like Casas, though he isn't as big and doesn't generate quite as much power. Northcut is also smaller but generates his power through bat speed, and while his swing isn't quite as long, he still struggles with contact. Personally, I like Northcut better than Decker as a prospect. 17 year old Danny Diaz slashed .238/.283/.476 in complex ball in the Dominican this year, showing big power with big contact concerns (notice a trend?). He's a long, long way off, but his big power potential gives him a high ceiling. Lastly, 22 year old catcher Roldani Baldwin followed up a great 2017 (14 HR, .274/.310/.489 at Class A Greenville) with a disappointing 2018 (7 HR, .233/.282/.371 at High A Salem), struggling to do much damage against more advanced pitching. There is still some upside in the bat because the power is there, but unfortunately his defense needs work and he may need to move to first base, which would not be ideal for his bat.

High Upside Pitchers: Jay Groome, Bryan Mata, Darwinzon Hernandez, Tanner Houck, and Durbin Feltman
While this group of pitchers is not particularly deep, all five of these pitchers have the potential to take a step forward and become frontline or mid rotation starters (or a closer in Feltman's case). Of course, they also come with high risk, and with only five, the Sox will likely only get one or two impact pitchers out of the group. The highest upside belongs to 6'6", 20 year old lefty Jay Groome. Groome had a chance to go first overall in the 2016 draft, but character questions and signability problems dropped him to the Red Sox at twelfth. He then struggled at Class A Greenville in 2017 (6.70 ERA, 58/25 K/BB in 44.1 IP) before sitting out all of 2018 with forearm issues and then May Tommy John surgery, and he'll miss a big chunk of 2019 with that surgery as well. Groome still has all the makings of a future ace with great stuff and a big frame, but he struggles to control it and hasn't stayed healthy long enough to fix that control. 19 year old Bryan Mata, meanwhile, was spent the year up at High A Salem and managed a 3.50 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a 61/58 strikeout to walk ratio in 72 innings. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball and a great changeup, but he struggles with control and misses the zone quite a bit. The skinny 6'3" righty is way ahead of the development curve and has plenty of time to get it right, and he could be a #2 starter when it's all said and done if he can start throwing strikes over the next few years. 21 year old Darwinzon Hernandez, meanwhile, spent most of the year at Salem and threw a few innings at AA Portland at the end, finishing with a 3.53 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 134/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 innings. The big lefty is older than Mata but throws a little harder, though he does struggle with command. If he can get that command down, he can be a mid-rotation starter, but Mata's upside is of course higher. 22 year old Tanner Houck performed reasonably for Salem this year, posting a 4.24 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 111/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings. The 6'5" righty comes from from a funky three quarters arm slot, and while his slider is improving, he still has risk of becoming a reliever. A righty with a similar delivery that is covered in the next section, Mike Shawaryn, had a breakout year in the Sox system this year and Boston will hope Houck can take a similar step forward. He's not necessarily behind the age curve, but 2018 makes his first round selection (24th overall) in 2017 look a little bit suspect. Lastly, 21 year old Durbin Feltman is purely a relief prospect, but the 2018 draftee out of TCU could be in the majors by 2019. He tore up the minors in his pro debut, posting a 1.93 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.1 innings across three levels, getting as high as Salem. His high effort delivery gives him a fastball that can hit 99 and a devastating slider, but also leads to control problems and limits him to the bullpen. Look for him in the Boston 'pen at some point next year.

Polished Arms: Mike Shawaryn, Kutter Crawford, Alex Scherff, Denyi Reyes, Jake Thompson, and Travis Lakins
While this group of pitchers doesn't have the upside, I think at least one will become a serviceable starting pitcher. I doubt they get more than two from this group (Lakins is a reliever anyways), because even though the upside isn't high with these guys, they don't have the floor generally associated with a team's top pitchability arms. That's just what happens when your system is thin like this. 24 year old Mike Shawaryn leads the pack as the best pitcher in this bunch, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 132/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 149.1 innings between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket. The 6'2" righty is shorter than Tanner Houck, mentioned in the previous section, but has a similarly deceptive delivery that makes his stuff play up, and unlike Houck, he can control it well. While he lacks Houck's velocity, he has a great slider and looks like the better prospect at this point. He has the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter and likely settles in as a #3 or a #4. A little down the depth chart is 22 year old Kutter Crawford, who finished up 2018 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 157/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. While the numbers were impressive and he has a deep arsenal of useable pitches, most of his stuff grades out as average and without the deception or command to make it play up, I don't see him as ending up as much more than a #5 starter. Even farther down is 20 year old Alex Scherff, a 6'3" righty who posted a 4.76 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings between Greenville and a few innings down at the complex level. He has better stuff than Crawford and therefore higher upside, though he needs to improve his curveball and his control is not as advanced as Crawford's. He could be as good as a #3 or #4 starter, but the risk is high. 22 year old Denyi Reyes is an interesting case. Over his minor league career, he is 32-7 with a 2.12 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 286/33 strikeout to walk ratio. In 2018, he went 12-5 with a 1.97 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 145/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 155.2 innings between Greenville and Salem, using his command rather than his stuff to keep opponents off balance. Because his stuff grades out as just average, we need to see him above A ball to really know what he is capable of, but he can't do much better statistically than how he has already done. If he continues to hit the corners consistently and keep hitters off balance in the upper minors, that could translate into being a #4 or #5 starter in the majors. 24 year old Jake Thompson hasn't had nearly as much success in pro ball as he did at Oregon State, posting a 5.30 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 96/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings for Salem this year. He had a good combination of stuff and pitchability coming into the minors, but the stuff has backed up and his command has been so-so. While he has a deep arsenal, nothing really grades out as above average, and unlike Reyes he doesn't have the command to make up for it. He was so good in college that you can't give up just yet, but the early returns are not encouraging. Lastly, 24 year old Travis Lakins is a relief prospect who posted a 2.32 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 57/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings between Portland and Pawtucket this year. He's a fastball/cutter guy that can blow pitches by opponents, but while he has improved his command, he lacks a true breaking ball and the velocity can play down due to a lack of contrast. He looks like a middle reliever at this point, albeit one who could make the Opening Day roster.

Non-Power Hitters: SS C.J. Chatham, OF Cole Brannen, SS Antoni Flores, and 3B Brandon Howlett
As you can tell, the Red Sox have invested more heavily in power hitters than contact/speed oriented guys, something I tend to agree with. However, it's a testament to the lack of depth in this organization that there are really only four viable offensive prospects who have skills other than hitting for power, and none of these guys are really that good. 23 year old C.J. Chatham leads the pack, coming off a season where he slashed .314/.350/.389 with three home runs and an 84/26 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. He plays good defense at shortstop, which takes pressure off the bat, but while he's great at making contact, he doesn't do much else. The walk rate is low and there's virtually no power, so he looks like a utility guy at best. 20 year old Cole Brannen has gotten absolutely nothing going at the plate since being drafted in the second round (63rd overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2017, slashing just .169/.261/.205 with 21 stolen bases and a 90/30 strikeout to walk ratio between short season ball and Greenville this year. He's fast and can draw a walk, but the bat is just non-existent and something needs to dramatically change if he wants to even make it halfway up to the majors. 18 year old Antoni Flores has the highest ceiling in this section, coming off a pro debut where he slashed .340/.435/.528 with a home run and an 8/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games in complex ball. It's best to avoid drawing conclusions from a small sample size in the low minors like that, but he has done everything asked of him so far and could develop into a usable shortstop down the line, though risk is obviously high. Lastly, 19 year old Brandon Howlett was just drafted out of a central Florida high school, and he immediately slashed .289/.402/.513 with six home runs and a nice 41/28 strikeout to walk ratio between complex ball and a few games in short season ball. There were concerns about his contact when he was drafted, but his solid approach has made up for them and so far, he has impressed enough to earn some attention in this otherwise barren farm system. He has a long way to go but could be a sleeper to develop into a usable third baseman.

2018 Draft Review: Boston Red Sox

First 5 rounds: Triston Casas (1-26), Nick Decker (2-64), Durbin Feltman (3-100), Kole Cottam (4-130), Thad Ward (5-160)
Also notable: Devlin Granberg (6-190), Brian Brown (9-280), Nick Northcut (11-340), Zach Watson (40-1210)

The Red Sox seemingly placed a premium on two big tools early in this draft: power at the plate and power in the arm. The hitters selected early won't get confused with slap hitters, while the pitchers should move quickly on their velocity and could be in the big leagues soon as relievers. They also leaned heavily on college players after taking high schoolers with their first two picks, following them with eight straight college players, mostly hitters. The Red Sox farm system has thinned out considerably in the last few years, so they'll hope this restock does them good.

1-26: 3B Triston Casas (my rank: 28)
The Red Sox grabbed the kid with arguably the most raw power in all of high school baseball with their first round pick (though Cardinals first rounder Nolan Gorman might disagree), as Casas regularly registered some of the top exit velocities in the country with his long, lofted, powerful swing. He probably will move across the diamond to first base, but as long as he makes enough contact, his power will make the bat play there. The South Florida standout is a guy who, at his best, could chase 40 home runs every season, especially with that short porch in right field at Fenway. The left handed hitter does have a very long swing, one that makes me a little nervous that strikeouts might be an issue in pro ball, and the Red Sox definitely understand that risk. Fortunately, he's very patient at the plate, and even if his batting average sits around .240, he'll walk enough that the power and on-base percentage together should make him a valuable middle of the order bat. Like most high schoolers, he is a high upside, high risk pick in the first round. He has already signed for just over $2.55 million, slot value for the 26th overall pick.

2-64: OF Nick Decker (my rank: 86)
Decker is a similar player to Casas, though not quite as good. The New Jersey native, like Casas, has a long left handed swing that generates a ton of pop, though he looks more like a 30 home run guy than a 40 homer guy like Casas. His swing itself is actually not all that long for a power hitter, but it takes a split-second to get going, and that could be deadly once he starts facing faster pitching. It's probably correctable, but it's something to watch for. Between Casas and Decker, the Sox should get at least one power hitter for their lineup. Decker is committed to Maryland and slot value is just over $1 million here.

3-100: RHP Durbin Feltman (my rank: 67)
The scouting report is pretty simple here. The 6'1" TCU righty is a hard throwing reliever that could be up to the major leagues in a hurry, possibly even by the end of this season. Over 18 relief appearances for the Horned Frogs this year, Feltman allowed just two runs in 24 innings (0.74 ERA) while striking out 43 and walking just six. Numbers don't get much better than that, and he did it with a fastball that sits in the mid to upper 90's and that has hit 99, as well as a wipeout slider. Those two pitches alone should make him a successful major league pitcher, but it won't be as a starter, as he has a jerky delivery that wouldn't be repeatable over a full game. As a two pitch reliever, though, he can come in and shut down the opposition quickly, and his command is good enough that his floor is really just as a middle reliever. Low risk, low reward pick here, with slot value sitting just under $560,000.

4-130: C Kole Cottam (unranked)
Cottam just finished up an excellent season at Kentucky where he slashed .352/.438/.667 with 19 home runs and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. The Red Sox are buying the bat here, as he probably won't stick behind the plate, though those numbers in the tough SEC sure are pretty. Though his 18.9% strikeout rate wasn't astronomical, it's high enough to raise some questions in the bat, especially when it looks like his swing is more geared towards beating up college pitching than squaring up pro stuff. Some guys manage to make adjustments and keep hitting as they are promoted, so we'll have to see how it goes with Cottam. Slot value here is $417,800 and he should be signable.

Others: 5th rounder Thad Ward is a right handed pitcher out of the University of Central Florida, where he put up a 3.27 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 22 games (5 starts) this year, striking out 84 and walking 26 in 63 innings. The 6'3" righty should be a fast mover as a reliever, and while he won't be up as qiuckly as Feltman, he could help the bullpen in the near future. 6th rounder Devlin Granberg is an outfielder from Dallas Baptist University, where he just put up an incredible season by slashing .426/.511/.651 with eleven home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 41/50 strikeout to walk ratio. A college senior who will be 23 in September, he's understandably advanced and will likely be another fast mover through the system. Though he hits the ball hard, his swing is more geared towards line drives than home runs, so adding loft could help him but might also slow his path to the big leagues. Ultimately, he looks like a fourth outfielder or third division starter, one who could hit something like .270/.340/.440 with some speed at his best. 9th rounder Brian Brown just finished up a fantastic career at NC State, going 25-11 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over four seasons in Raleigh. This past season, he was 7-2 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 98/26 strikeout to walk ratio in 98.2 innings. The 6' left hander is more about pitchability than power stuff, sitting around 90 with his fastball but commanding it well. He should be able to remain a starter as he moves up through the minors, with the ultimate ceiling of a 4th or 5th starter. 11th rounder Nick Northcut won't sign here, as he is committed to Vanderbilt and had the talent to go in the second or third round, and the Cincinnati area high schooler could be a big part of the Commodores offense immediately once he steps on the diamond in Nashville. He's a third baseman with plenty of power from a shorter 6'1" frame, though he'll have to prove he can make enough contact to tap into it enough. 40th rounder Zach Watson is another guy who won't sign, as he had the talent to go in the second or third round as well but was taken with the fifth to last pick of the draft. The LSU outfielder has put up two similar seasons for the Tigers, slashing .312/.371/.492 with 17 home runs and 26 stolen bases over 121 games in his career, striking out 87 times while walking 33 times. The draft eligible sophomore shows the potential to impact the game with his speed, defense, contact, and even a little bit of power, but he'll have to improve his plate discipline to tap into his offensive value at the next level. He'll try to do just that in his junior year in Baton Rouge.