2020 Awards Picks: MVP's and Cy Young's

If I were given a vote, below would be my picks for the AL and NL MVP and Cy Young Awards.

AL MVP: RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 8-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 122/21 K/BB in 77.1 IP.
I think most people would prefer to choose a hitter as an MVP, but in a year in which not one American League hitter put up a 1.000 OPS while staying healthy for the whole two months, the door was opened for Shane Bieber and his unbelievable season. With all due respect to strong seasons from Jose Ramirez, DJ LeMahieu, Jose Abreu, and of course Mike Trout, it's a pretty easy pick for me to choose Bieber. Bieber led all AL pitchers in wins, ERA, and strikeouts and had the second best WHIP, and he did so with the second most innings in the league. With Francisco Lindor stumbling to a .258/.335/.415 slash line, the Indians really struggled to score runs with a lineup that saw only Ramirez break even an .800 OPS. The Tribe could not afford bad starts this year, and Bieber went at least five innings and allowed no more than three runs in each of his twelve starts. In fact, he allowed zero or one earned runs in seven of his twelve starts, putting even a futile Cleveland offense in position to win every single time he took the mound. And without his contributions, they would have been no better than a seven or eight seed, rather than the four seed they ended up with. The crowning achievement of his season likely came in just his second start, when he limited the eventual AL Central champion Twins to three baserunners over eight shutout innings while striking out thirteen.

Runner-Up: 3B Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 17 HR, .292/.386/.607, 10 SB, 163 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR in 58 games.
Behind Shane Bieber, the AL MVP race is pretty jumbled, with five players finishing with an OPS between .987 and 1.011, none of which were particularly standout defenders. Jose Ramirez didn't actually lead the league in anything besides his 3.4 fWAR and 45 runs scored, but instead, was simply Very Good in lots of areas. He finished second in OPS (.993), third in home runs (17), doubles (16), RBI (46), and slugging percentage (.607), fifth in wRC+ (163) and stolen bases (10), and sixth in on-base percentage (.386). On an Indians team that absolutely could not hit, he was the only player with above an .800 OPS and essentially carried the entire offense. Bieber shut down the AL and NL Central divisions on his own, but when he wasn't on the mound, Ramirez was often tasked with single-handedly keeping pace with the Twins, White Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals offenses. His numbers need a slight asterisk because he wasn't facing the most difficult schedule in the Central division, but with good defense and baserunning ability that could not be matched by anybody in his realm of the MVP range, in addition to playing in all but two of the Indians' games, he still gets the edge.

Honorable Mention: OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 17 HR, .281/.390/.603, 1 SB, 164 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR in 53 games.
If Mike Trout hadn't missed a few games for the birth of his son, I think he would clearly have the third spot, but at this point it's so close that I wouldn't argue with DJ LeMahieu, Jose Abreu, or even Anthony Rendon in this spot. Trout gets the slight edge because even though he only played in 53 games (T-45th in the AL), he still collected 241 plate appearances that had him tied for 15th in the league. Throw in 17 home runs and nearly a .400 on-base percentage, and you're pretty darn close to an MVP, never mind that his .993 OPS was actually below his 1.000 career OPS. Even in what wasn't his best season (and missing a few games), the best player in the world finished third in the league in home runs (17), RBI (46), and wRC+ (164), fourth in on-base percentage (.390), slugging (.603), and runs scored (41), and fifth in fWAR (2.6). He and guys like Rendon, Dylan Bundy, and David Fletcher did all they could to keep the Angels in the playoff hunt, but their extreme lack of depth cost them as they stumbled to a 26-34 record, three games out of a postseason spot.

Others: 2B DJ LeMahieu (NYY, 2.7 fWAR), 1B Jose Abreu (CWS, 2.7 fWAR), 3B Anthony Rendon (LAA, 2.8 fWAR), Kenta Maeda (MIN, 2.70 ERA), Gerrit Cole (NYY, 2.84 ERA)

NL MVP: 1B Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 13 HR, .341/.462/.640, 2 SB, 187 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR in 60 games.
To me, it's very very close between Freeman and Fernando Tatis, but Freeman just barely gets the edge because of his absolute dominance at the plate. The Braves' rotation was decimated by injuries and other problems in 2020, throwing their status as the NL's consensus second best team in doubt. But Freeman, combined with Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuña, made sure that runs were never really an issue and that they could win any slugfest. Freeman in particular was a one man wrecking crew, and if not for Juan Soto, his monster .341/.462/.640 slash line would have led the NL in each category. Not only that, but Freeman was one of just seven NL players to appear in all sixty games, and his 262 plate appearances put him third in the league. He hit in August (.330/.440/.582) and he hit in September (.375/.496/.750), not just bursting out with a couple weeks of excellence but maintaining it all season long. Aside from Soto and his 200 wRC+, no National League player has topped Freeman's 187 since Bryce Harper's 197 in 2015, and before that, not since Barry Bonds' 233 in 2004.

Runner-up: SS Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Stat line: 17 HR, .277/.366/.571, 11 SB, 149 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR in 59 games.
I wanted to give this award to Tatis, I really did, and I would have strongly considered him ahead of Shane Bieber if he were in the AL. Even though he hit just .164/.242/.291 over his last 16 games, which is more than a quarter of the season, what he did in his first 43 games was unparalleled anywhere in either league. As of September 7th, before the slump started, he was hitting .314/.405/.663 with a league leading 15 home runs, but his value went beyond that. Tatis was one of the best defenders in baseball by multiple different measures, and with eleven stolen bases, he even finished fourth in the NL in that category. He energized the Padres' players, organization, and socially distant fanbase in a way that no other player did in 2020, and for that reason I believe his value goes well beyond the 3.0 fWAR he put up in 59 games. Take Tatis out of that lineup and I don't think the 37-23 Padres drop to 34-26, but to something more like 30-30. San Diego's biggest asset in 2020 was its energy, and Tatis was at the center. Had he played even average baseball over the last couple weeks of the season, I think he would have been the clear MVP.

Honorable mention: OF Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 18 HR, .338/.431/.636, 0 SB, 179 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 60 games.
Here in the third spot, I wouldn't argue with Manny Machado, who carried the Padres through Tatis' slump on his way to a strong .304/.370/.580 season + his trademark defense, or Trea Turner, who had an unbelievable stretch in which he hit .471/.526/.816 over 21 games (over a third of the season!) and at one point collected fifteen hits in a four stretch. But Marcell Ozuna's continued offensive dominance over a "full," sixty game season could only be matched by his teammate Freddie Freeman, and his 18 home runs and 56 RBI finished atop the National League while his .431 on-base percentage and .636 slugging percentage weren't far behind. Looking at the Braves' final 35-25 record, you'd have no idea about their rotation problems or the fact that Ronald Acuña missed nearly a quarter of the season, and that's due to Freeman and Ozuna forming the best middle of the order in baseball by far. He kept Freeman from getting the Juan Soto/Barry Bonds treatment, and in total he produced as much offense as any non-Freeman player in baseball.

Others: RHP Trevor Bauer (CIN, 1.73 ERA), 3B Manny Machado (SD, 2.5 fWAR), SS Trea Turner (WSH, 2.7 fWAR), OF Mookie Betts (LAD, 2.9 fWAR), OF Juan Soto (WSH, 2.4 fWAR)

AL Cy Young: RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 8-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 122/21 K/BB in 77.1 IP.
This was the easiest award to hand out by far, didn't have to think twice. See Bieber's MVP writeup for more details.

Runner-up: RHP Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins
Stat line: 6-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 80/10 K/BB in 66.2 IP.
This #2 slot is very close between Maeda and Gerrit Cole, but Maeda's incredible ability to not only limit runs but limit baserunners gives him the edge. His 0.75 WHIP led both leagues by a good margin ahead of second place Trevor Bauer (0.79) and third place Dinelson Lamet (0.86), and it's actually the second lowest ever in a season behind Pedro Martinez's 0.74 in 2000 (Bauer, interestingly, is fourth best all time). In his eleven starts, Maeda went at least five innings in all of them and never allowed more than three runs in a start, but more impressively, he never allowed more than six baserunners in any start. His best work came on August 18th against the Brewers when he allowed one run on just three baserunners over eight innings, striking out twelve. With a lack of superstar seasons ahead of him (aside from Bieber), it's enough to place second in the league despite a 2.70 ERA.

Honorable mention: RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Stat line: 7-3, 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 94/17 K/BB in 73 IP.
I'm a sucker for a large body of work, so the fact that Gerrit Cole finished fourth in the American League with 73 innings is a big plus for me. Obviously that's not all he had going for him, also racking up the third most strikeouts (94), fourth best WHIP (0.96), and sixth best ERA (2.84) despite pitching in a heavy hitters' park and pitching most of his road starts in hitters' parks as well in Baltimore, Atlanta, and Buffalo. Still, he spun some gems and finished the season with three consecutive seven inning starts in which he allowed one run or fewer, and he struck out at least seven in ten of his twelve starts. Yankees fans may have had sky high, Cy Young or bust expectations (I should know – I'm engaged to one) and a 2.84 ERA might feel like a let down, but given the fact that he made just two starts in pitcher friendly parks this year and that he still kept his WHIP under 1.00 and struck out nearly 100, I'd call this exactly what New York paid for.

Others: LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (TOR, 2.69 ERA), LHP Dallas Keuchel (CWS, 1.99 ERA), RHP Lance Lynn (TEX, 3.32 ERA), RHP Zach Plesac (CLE, 2.28 ERA), LHP Marco Gonzales (SEA, 3.10 ERA).

NL Cy Young: RHP Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds
Stat line: 5-4, 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 100/17 K/BB in 73 IP.
It's been an interesting few years for Trevor Bauer, who never posted an ERA below 4.18 from 2012-2017 but dropped all the way to 2.21 in 2018, only to rocket back up to 4.48 in 2019. Now in 2020, he's coming off a year that could very well win him a Cy Young Award, and it was a 1.24 ERA and a 39/4 strikeout to walk ratio over his final four starts that fully pushed him past Jacob deGrom. Bauer's entire season was exceptional, with four different starts of a dozen or more strikeouts, eight out of eleven starts allowing either zero or one earned run, and all eleven where he pitched into the sixth inning. He led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79) while finishing second in strikeouts (100) and sixth in innings pitched, all while pitching in a tough hitters' park in Cincinnati. This year, it was the Reds' offense that scuffled at times, not its pitching as had been the case in years past, and Bauer combined with Luis Castillo to form one of the best one-two punches in baseball. The short season obviously matters, but his 0.79 WHIP is technically the lowest in the history of the National League, and that counts for something.

Runner-up: RHP Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
Stat line: 8-3, 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 93/14 K/BB in 76 IP.
I went back and forth between Yu Darvish and Dinelson Lamet for this spot, but Darvish gets the edge with seven more innings pitched, a slightly lower ERA, and similar dominance in terms of keeping runners off the bases. He was one of baseball's better pitchers from 2012-2016 with the Rangers before falling into more of an inconsistent, mid-rotation profile with the Dodgers and Cubs from 2017-2019. 2020 was the best we've ever seen from the Japanese hurler, in which he had the second best ERA in the National League. After allowing three runs over four innings in an unremarkable first start of the season, he allowed zero or one earned run in eight of his final eleven starts and went at least six innings in each of them. That consistency was key for a Cubs team that won the NL Central for the first time since 2017, and by eating 76 innings, he was third in the league. He did it by the strikeout, his 93 finishing fourth in the league, but he also did it with excellent command, his 1.66 walks per nine finishing second only to his teammate Kyle Hendricks.

Honorable mention: RHP Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres
Stat line: 3-1, 2.09 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 93/20 K/BB in 69 IP.
A three win pitcher as a top three Cy Young candidate? 2020 really is a different animal. After flashing strikeout stuff over his first two seasons sandwiched around Tommy John surgery, Dinelson Lamet put it all together in 2020 for baseball's most exciting team. In twelve starts, he put up a 2.09 ERA, struck out 93, and allowed just 39 hits in 69 innings. Aside from a precautionary early exit in his final start of the season, Lamet went at least five innings in all of his starts and never allowed more than six hits or three earned runs in any. He finished second in the NL in WHIP (0.86), third in ERA (2.09), and fourth in strikeouts (93). His .250 xwOBA (expected opponents' offense, essentially) was third in the NL behind only Bauer and Jacob deGrom, showing that his exceptional season was earned, too. If you've never seen a Lamet slider, you need to watch one of his starts.

Others: RHP Jacob deGrom (NYM, 2.38 ERA), RHP Kyle Hendricks (CHC, 2.88 ERA), LHP Clayton Kershaw (LAD, 2.16 ERA), RHP Corbin Burnes (MIL, 2.11 ERA), RHP German Marquez (COL, 3.75 ERA)

One 2018 Breakout Star to Watch for Each Team: NL

The AL version of this list was recently published. Here is one guy to watch on each team whose name could be much more familiar by the end of the season. Age for the 2018 season given in parentheses.

Atlanta Braves: OF Ronald Acuna (Age 20)
High A/AA/AAA: 21 HR, .325/.374/.522, 44 SB, 155 wRC+ in 139 games
There are more than a few players primed for breakouts on the Braves, but perhaps none has a higher ceiling for 2017 than Ronald Acuna, the 20 year old sensation who tore up the three highest minor league levels as a teenager last season. Somehow, he got better with each promotion, and between High Class A Florida (28 games), AA Mississippi (57 games), and AAA Gwinnett (54 games), he crushed 21 home runs, stole 44 bases, and slashed .325/.374/.522 with 144 strikeouts to 43 walks in a total of 139 games. The K/BB ratio might not seem to be the prettiest, but his strikeout rate dropped with each level (from 31.7% in High A to 23% in AA to 19.8% in AAA) and his walk rate remained fairly static despite the increase in competition (6.3% to 7.4% to 7%). He'll likely begin 2018 with Gwinnett again to finish ironing out some holes in his approach, but he'll probably be up by the end of April and from there, the sky is the limit. Ender Inciarte is holding down center field, but Lane Adams is far from entrenched in left field and 34 year old Nick Markakis shouldn't be too much of a road block in right. Long story short, when he's ready, which should be very soon if not now, there will be a spot for him to play every day. With his combination of seemingly every tool, he's a star in the making. With that, don't overlook the guys listed below as others; I listed an extra one just because there are so many.
Others: 2B Ozzie Albies, SS Dansby Swanson, LHP Luiz Gohara, LHP Max Fried

Miami Marlins: OF Lewis Brinson (Age 24)
MLB: 2 HR, .106/.236/.277, 1 SB, 30 wRC+ in 21 games
AAA: 13 HR, .331/.400/.562, 11 SB, 146 wRC+ in 76 games
Perhaps the most exciting player to come to Miami in this offseason's complete tear-down was outfielder Lewis Brinson, a South Florida native bursting with tools. He hits and he hits it hard, and with his speed and defense, he's a complete player. While it is true that AAA Colorado Springs plays in a hitters' park in a generally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Brinson's .331/.400/.562 slash line is still very impressive and at the very least proves he's major league ready. Though his .106/.236/.277 slash line with the Brewers was a bit less inspiring, he did draw seven walks for a very respectable 12.7% rate, proving he wasn't completely overmatched. Additionally, three of his five hits went for extra bases (including two home runs), so his power transferred up in the small sample as well. With Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Ichiro Suzuki all gone from last year's outfield, the stage is set for him to try his hand as a starter in the Marlins' outfield.
Others: 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Sandy Alcantara, OF Magneuris Sierra

New York Mets: SS Amed Rosario (Age 22)
MLB: 4 HR, .248/.271/.394, 7 SB, 74 wRC+ in 46 games
AAA: 7 HR, .328/.367/.466, 19 SB, 116 wRC+ in 94 games
All projection and no track record as recently as the start of the 2016 season, Amed Rosario broke out by slashing .324/.374/.459 with 19 stolen bases between High Class A Port St. Lucie and AA Binghamton that year, then continued to mash with a .328/.367/.466 line and 19 more stolen bases at AAA Las Vegas in 2017. This performance earned a call-up for the 21 year old shortstop, who held his own by slashing .248/.271/.394 across 46 major league games. Rosario is a great defender who has proven bat to ball and running abilities, looking like a future leadoff man if he can learn to take a walk. Unfortunately, the latter may take some time, considering his horrendous 49/3 strikeout to walk ratio with the Mets this past season, though his 87/40 and 67/23 marks in the minors in 2016 and 2017, respectively, are much better. I don't think Rosario will be an instant star in New York, but 2018 could see him begin to build towards that goal.
Others: 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Seth Lugo

Philadelphia Phillies: SS J.P. Crawford (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .214/.356/.300, 1 SB, 83 wRC+ in 23 games
AAA: 15 HR, .243/.351/.405, 5 SB, 114 wRC+ in 127 games
One of the most highly regarded Phillies prospects in recent memory, Crawford has seen his star fade just a little bit upon reaching AAA. In 87 games with Lehigh Valley in 2016, he slashed just .244/.328/.318, and he wasn't much better in the first half of 2017, slashing .211/.328/.330 in 76 games. However, he turned it around in the second half, slashing .287/.385/.513 in 51 games for the IronPigs and earning a call-up to Philadelphia in September. His bat was light in those 23 games (.214/.356/.300), but the second half turnaround was just what the Phillies wanted to see. Crawford should have an easier time adjusting to the majors than most minor leaguers because of his extremely advanced approach at the plate, which helped him to a solid 97/79 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA this year. Even after his promotion to the majors, he held a 22/16 ratio, showing he could spot major league fastballs and offspeeds, so now the only step left is for him to start punishing mistakes.
Others: RHP Nick Pivetta, C Jorge Alfaro, RHP Ben Lively

Washington Nationals: OF Victor Robles (Age 20-21)
MLB: 0 HR, .250/.308/.458, 0 SB, 96 wRC+ in 13 games
High A/AA: 10 HR, .300/.382/.493, 27 SB, 147 wRC+ in 114 games
We round out the NL East with yet another high ceiling, athletic position player, and Victor Robles may end up being the best of them all. Robles, who doesn't turn 21 until May 19th, is currently the youngest player ever to suit up in the majors, and joins Ozzie Albies (January birthday) as one of only two MLB players born in the year 1997. Robles began the season at High Class A Potomac, but slashed .289/.377/.495 with 16 stolen bases in 77 games to force a promotion to AA Harrisburg, where he kept on hitting to the tune of a .324/.394/.489 slash line and 11 stolen bases in 37 games. In the majors for the month of September, he put up a respectable .250/.308/.458 line over 13 games, showing that he is at least ready for a shot. He'll likely start with some seasoning in AAA, but once he comes up, he can impact the game in a multitude of ways. For starters, he's blazing fast and has a cannon arm, making him a potential Gold Glove defender in center field, and he has great plate discipline for such a young player. Combine that with his athleticism and natural feel for the barrel, and he can post high on-base percentages and be a perfect leadoff man. The only area where he doesn't excel is power, but he should generate average pop and with his strong, athletic build, could max out as an Andrew McCutchen-type player. On top of it all, he is considered to have a great head on his shoulders, and that will be invaluable when his chance in the big leagues comes, likely sooner rather than later.
Others: RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Erick Fedde, OF Andrew Stevenson

Chicago Cubs: RHP Eddie Butler (Age 27)
MLB: 4-3, 3.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 30/28 K/BB, 54.2 IP in 13 games (11 starts)
AAA: 2-0, 2.17 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 30/12 K/BB, 45.2 IP in 8 starts
It's tough to pinpoint any real breakout candidate on the Cubs, considering pretty much every position is set with veterans or otherwise proven players. That said, if any of Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, or Tyler Chatwood gets hurt, Eddie Butler could be the guy who steps up and makes an impact. Butler pushed himself into the national prospect conversation by dominating the mid-minor leagues in 2013 (9-5, 1.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 143/52 K/BB across three levels), but the former Radford Highlander never quite figured it out with the Rockies, going 6-16 with a 6.50 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in parts of three seasons with them. Traded to the Cubs in 2017, he finally found his footing in the majors, going 4-3 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 13 games (11 starts), and he could springboard off of that in 2018 if given the opportunity (though fellow starters Mike Montgomery and Jen-Ho Tseng will also gun for a spot in the case of an injury).
Others: OF Albert Almora, C Victor Caratini, RHP Jen-Ho Tseng

Cincinnati Reds: RHP Luis Castillo (Age 25)
MLB: 3-7, 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 98/32 K/BB, 89.1 IP in 15 starts
AA: 4-4, 2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 14 starts
Traded as a part of the Casey McGehee deal of 2014, the Andrew Cashner deal of 2016, and the Dan Straily deal of 2017, Luis Castillo is making the Giants, Padres, Marlins regret their decisions. He dominated AA in 2017 (2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB with Pensacola) before a call-up to Cincinnati, where he continued to mow down hitters to the tune of a 3.12 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/32 strikeout to walk ratio. Interestingly, his strikeout rate actually went up after his promotion to the majors, having struck out 25.6% of AA hitters and 27.3% of major league hitters. He likely won't best his half-season rate stats from 2017, but those numbers held over a full season are borderline ace level. If his 2017 stats were for real, which I believe they may have been, then Castillo is the next face of the Reds rotation and that could begin in 2018.
Others: OF Jesse Winker, RHP Sal Romano, RHP Robert Stephenson

Milwaukee Brewers: LHP Josh Hader (Age 24)
MLB: 2-3, 2.08 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 68/22 K/BB, 47.2 IP in 35 games
AAA: 3-4, 5.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 51/31 K/BB, 52 IP in 12 starts
Drafted in the 19th round out of a Maryland high school way back in 2012, Josh Hader slowly climbed the minor league ladder while dominating his competition, going 23-17 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 101 games (69 starts) up through his promotion to AAA Colorado Springs in 2016, striking out 471 and walking 171 in 420.1 innings. However, he struggled to adjust to the extremely hitter-friendly conditions in Colorado Springs and the Pacific Coast League, and in 26 starts since that promotion, he is 4-11 with a 5.28 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. The Brewers decided to give him a change of scenery by not only promoting him to the majors, but shifting him to the bullpen as well. It worked, as Hader dominated major league hitters to the tune of a 2.08 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 68/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 47.2 innings. Manager Craig Counsell has said that he will begin 2018 in the bullpen again, but a move to the rotation is certainly possible and Hader has the stuff to do it. In a best case scenario, Hader could become a mid-rotation force or better for the Brewers in the near future, and even if that isn't the case, he has proven he is very effective as a power reliever.
Others: RHP Brandon Woodruff, RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Corbin Burnes

Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Tyler Glasnow (Age 24)
MLB: 2-7, 7.69 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 56/44 K/BB, 62 IP in 15 games (13 starts)
AAA: 9-2, 1.93 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 140/32 K/BB, 93.1 IP in 15 starts
Tyler Glasnow is about as enigmatic as it gets. The 6'8" right hander has absolutely obliterated minor league hitting to the tune of a 45-21 record, a 2.02 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 785/278 strikeout to walk ratio in 593.1 innings. This utter domination includes AAA, where he is a career 19-6 pitcher with a 1.95 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 321/116 strikeout to walk ratio over 244.1 innings. The trouble, however, has been translating that success just one more step to the majors. Over 22 major league outings over the past two seasons (including 17 starts), he is 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP, striking out 80 and walking 57 in 85.1 innings. He still has that blazing mid to upper 90's fastball, but his command has been non-existent and hitters have been able to punish his mistakes. While he struck out 38.5% of those he faced in AAA this year, that number stood at just 18.4% in the majors, while his walk rate jumped from 8.8% to 14.4%. Glasnow does have an opportunity to jump back into the rotation if one of Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, Joe Musgrove, Chad Kuhl, or Trevor Williams gets hurt or becomes ineffective, and if he can put it together in 2018, he could finally become the rotation force the Pirates have envisioned for years. However, the Pirates have stated that they are open to using him in the bullpen this year, where his fastball could play up into the upper 90's and he could focus his energy. Either way, this could be the year Glasnow finds success, even if it's not the ace-level success some envisioned when he was climbing through the minors.
Others: 3B Colin Moran, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Austin Meadows

St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Miles Mikolas (Age 29)
NPB (Japan): 14-8, 2.25 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 187/23 K/BB, 188 IP in 27 starts
Last year, Eric Thames made a triumphant return from three years in South Korea to blast 31 home runs for the Brewers. This year, their NL Central rivals are hoping to catch the same lightning in a bottle, this time from Japan. Miles Mikolas (Mikolas pronounced like Mike) was last season in the U.S. going 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 10 starts for the Rangers in 2014, so he headed to Japan to play for the Yomiuri Giants. Apparently, something clicked for him over there, and in three seasons in the NPB, Mikolas went 31-13 with a 2.18 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 378/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 424.2 innings in 62 starts. His strikeout rate went up each year, from 14.9% in 2014, his final year in the MLB to 19.2% in his first year in Japan in 2015, to 22% in 2016, and finally up to 25.1% in 2017. Meanwhile, he posted a career-low 3.1% walk rate this year, and the Cardinals liked his performance enough to give him a two year, $15.5 million deal. He apparently upped his velocity during his time in Japan while refining his secondary pitches, all while maintaining and even improving the stellar command he had in the states. Eric Thames showed us that it isn't impossible for American returnees from Asia to make an impact right away, and Mikolas will look to follow in his footsteps.
Others: RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Alex Reyes

Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Taylor Clarke (24-25)
AA/AAA: 12-9, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 138/52 K/BB, 145 IP in 27 starts
There aren't many openings in the Arizona lineup for new guys to break in, and the rotation looks set with Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Patrick Corbin, and Zack Godley. However, one is bound to get hurt, and Braden Shipley and Taylor Clarke look like frontrunners to take that spot if it comes up. Originally drafted in the third round out of the College of Charleston as a senior in 2015, Clarke pitched very well in 2015 and 2016 and began 2017 with AA Jackson, where he put up a very strong 2.91 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 107/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 111.1 innings. Promoted to AAA Reno not long after his 22nd birthday, Clarke finally found a challenge in the hitter-friendly environment, going 3-2 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over six starts, striking out 31 and walking 13 in 33.2 innings. Still, his strikeout rate remained stable by dropping just two points from 23.5% to 21.5%, as did his walk rate by rising from 8.6% to 9%. A fly ball pitcher, he was hurt by the thin air of the Pacific Coast League, and while Arizona has some pretty thin air as well, they just introduced a humidor to try to mitigate that effect. The humidor could be a huge help for Clarke, and if given the chance, the Ashburn, Virginia native could make an impact on the NL West pennant race.
Others: RHP Braden Shipley, 2B Ketel Marte, RHP Jimmie Sherfy

Colorado Rockies: 1B Ryan McMahon (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .158/.333/.211, 0 SB, 46 wRC+ in 17 games
AA/AAA: 20 HR, .355/.403/.583, 11 SB, 157 wRC+ in 119 games
A year ago, Ryan McMahon was in a very different position, coming off a season in which he struggled for the first time in his career (12 HR, .242/.325/.399 in 133 games at AA), and he was set to repeat the level to start his 2017 season. However, this time around, he proved 2016 to be a fluke and slashed .326/.390/.536 with six home runs in 49 games, forcing a promotion to AAA Albuquerque. There, in the hitter-friendly environment, he moved himself from "good" to "elite" in the prospect rankings, slashing .374/.411/.612 with 14 home runs in 70 games, finding himself in the majors by August. While he struggled against major league pitching (.158/.333/.211), he did manage five walks against five strikeouts, and if he can get just a bit more loft on the ball (he's primarily a ground ball hitter), his power could take off at Coors Field. He has a clear path to starting at first base this season, so watch for McMahon's bat in the thin air.
Others: OF Raimel Tapia, RHP Jeff Hoffman, C Tom Murphy

Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Walker Buehler (Age 23-24)
MLB: 1-0, 7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 12/8 K/BB, 9.1 IP in 8 games
High A/AA/AAA: 3-3, 3.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 125/31 K/BB, 88.2 IP in 28 games (19 starts)
The Dodgers seemingly always have breakout guys who jump into the national conversation early on. Last year, it was Cody Bellinger. The year before, it was Corey Seager. Before that, you had guys like Yasiel Puig and Justin Turner turning into stars. This year, there are two main candidates to be the next guy, and I'm going to write up Walker Buehler over Alex Verdugo. Buehler was drafted in the first round, 24th overall, as part of a standout Vanderbilt class in 2015, following Dansby Swanson (1st) and Carson Fulmer (8th). However, it would be over a year before Buehler stepped foot on a minor league mound after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he didn't really get his career going until 2017. However, he dominated High Class A in five starts (1.10 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 27/5 K/BB) and found himself in AA, where he continued to pitch well (3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 64/15 K/BB). He finally found a challenge with AAA Oklahoma City, putting up a respectable 4.63 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio in the hitter-friendly environment. Promoted to the majors for eight relief appearances, he was knocked around a bit (7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP), but he did strike out 27.3% of those he faced (12 in 9.1 innings). The Dodger rotation looks to consist of Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Kenta Maeda, but if one gets injured (and with Hill and Ryu in there, one probably will), Buehler could be the first to hear his name called. If he can ring in his command just a little, his stuff is nasty enough (upper 90's fastball, plus curveball), he could give the Dodgers a third straight NL Rookie of the Year Award winner.
Others: OF Alex Verdugo, RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Dennis Santana

San Diego Padres: RHP Dinelson Lamet (Age 25-26)
MLB: 7-8, 4.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 139/54 K/BB, 114.1 IP in 21 starts
AAA: 3-2, 3.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50/20 K/BB, 39 IP in 8 starts
Dinelson Lamet didn't make his minor league debut until he was 22, which is old for a Dominican prospect, but he rose quickly once he got on the professional mound. In full season ball by 2015, he jumped three levels in 2016 and began 2017 at AAA El Paso in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. However, nobody seemed to tell Lamet that the environment was supposed to be difficult, and after eight solid starts (3.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50/20 K/BB), he was promoted to the majors. Making 21 starts for the Padres, he struggled a bit with command (11.1% walk rate), but hitters had a tough time connecting with his nasty stuff and he struck out 28.7% of those he faced, or 139 in 114.1 innings. Unfortunately, his walk rate did rise throughout the year, but if he can keep his stuff in check, it's nasty enough to make him a mid-rotation starter and to build on the 4.57 ERA from this year. The Padres are still rebuilding, so as long as he stays healthy, he should have no problem earning a spot in the rotation and could thrive.
Others: RHP Luis Perdomo, OF Hunter Renfroe, RHP Kaz Makita

San Francisco Giants: RHP Chris Stratton (Age 27)
MLB: 4-4, 3.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 51/28 K/BB, 58.2 IP in 13 games (10 starts)
AAA: 4-5, 5.11 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 71/22 K/BB, 79.1 IP in 15 starts
The Giants are doing their best to go worst to first this year, adding numerous bats including Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. However, the pitching staff has remained mostly untouched, especially in the starting department, leaving two unproven guys to take the #4 and #5 spots. Chris Stratton, Tyler Beede, and Andrew Suarez are frontrunners, but Stratton has a particularly strong case and could be in for a big season. Picked 20th overall out of Mississippi State in 2012, he developed slowly didn't get his first extended look in the majors until 2017, his age-26 season. In it, he was successful, going 4-4 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 13 games (10 starts), but there is certainly room for improvement. His 10.9% walk rate was a bit high, but his walk rate trended down slightly as the season moved on. With a full season in pitcher-friendly San Francisco, Stratton could finally fulfill his mid-rotation potential.
Others: RHP Tyler Beede, LHP Andrew Suarez, 2B Miguel Gomez