Showing posts with label William Privette. Show all posts
Showing posts with label William Privette. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Texas Rangers

Full list of draftees

The Rangers knew what they wanted and they went and got it. First off, they started with arguably the top player in the entire class in Wyatt Langford, who according to some evaluators is on par with or even a tick ahead of Dylan Crews as a prospect. After that, Texas leaned heavily into the pitching ranks, especially on hard throwers. Numerous draftees are touching triple digits or getting close to them, though many also come with significant reliever risk. Beyond Langford, it's really a boom or bust class, but it makes for a lot of interesting profiles in the meantime. The Rangers did manage all this despite not having a second or third round pick due to signing Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-4: OF Wyatt Langford, Florida {video}
Slot value: $7.7 million. Signing bonus: $8 million ($302,000 above slot value).
My rank: #2. MLB Pipeline: #3. Baseball America: #3. Prospects Live: #3.
It's not often that the #4 overall pick signs above slot value, but Wyatt Langford is worth every penny and more. More or less the consensus #3 prospect in the class, I had him #2 on my board just a hair behind #1 Dylan Crews. Langford is a major success story. Hailing from the small town of Trenton, Florida (population 2015, but enough to also produce country music singer Easton Corbin), he stayed home to attend the nearby University of Florida and rode the bench as a freshman, picking up just four at bats. However, he broke into the lineup in a big way with a massive sophomore campaign (.355/.447/.719, 26 HR), enough to push himself into top five discussions heading into the season. Langford only got better in 2023, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 home runs and a 44/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games to put himself on near equal footing with the more famous Dylan Crews. There are no holes in this profile no matter how hard you look unless you want to ding him for being a right handed hitting outfielder (like Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuña, and of course Crews). He's packed full of lean muscle at 6'1", with long arms that help channel that strength into at least plus raw power, if not plus-plus, that he taps consistently in games, leading to 47 home runs in 130 games over the past two seasons. It's a clean, leveraged, explosive right handed swing that's about as pretty as they come. He gets the barrel long through the zone, extends with ease, and puts natural loft on the ball all while maintaining big time bat speed to make the ball disappear. At the same time, Langford is an extremely disciplined hitter that rarely chases and makes a ton of contact, profiling as a plus pure hitter even if you take the power away. It's the kind of profile that can produce 30+ home runs annually while getting on base at a .400 clip in the majors. Previously thought to be a stretch in center field, his athleticism shined through in 2023 as he showed off plus run times that could help him stick in center field long term. He might slide back over to an outfield corner if he slows down at all with age, but the bat is truly special and he'll still be above average in either corner with a strong arm. Overall, it's an MVP-caliber ceiling with the floor of a very solid regular who sticks in the big leagues for a long time. It's hard not to love this pick at fourth overall because Langford very well could come out of this draft as the best player in the class. So far, he's off to the most impressive start of anybody in this class not named Nolan Schanuel (though I'm still buying Langford way ahead of Schanuel), slashing .359/.471/.697 with ten home runs and a 28/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games, becoming the only player in the draft class not named Schanuel to reach AAA.

4-108: RHP Skylar Hales, Santa Clara {video}
Slot value: $621,700. Signing bonus: $565,000 ($56,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #179. Prospects Live: #223.
Over one hundred picks later, the Rangers finally got to pick again and brought in a flame throwing reliever from the West Coast. Skylar Hales jumped back into the Santa Clara bullpen this year after spending 2022 as a starter, and in 2023 he posted a 3.38 ERA and a 66/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.1 innings. Hales consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch triple digits, with running life that makes it really tough to square up. He mostly lives and dies with that fastball, but he does flash a nice slider with sweeping action that could become a weapon with a little more refinement. Adding a cutter to split the difference between his running fastball and sweeping slider could help create more deception, but his delivery already provides some. Hale hides the ball well and releases from a lower slot, providing that combination of power and funk that teams like to find in their relievers. He pounds the strike zone with average command, which you don't always see from pure relief prospects. The Rangers love the fastball and will get to work on developing his secondaries, which could make him a solid reliever at the major league level. He showed well in his pro debut, posting a 4.22 ERA and an 11/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Down East.

5-144: RHP Alejandro Rosario, Miami {video}
Slot value: $437,900. Signing bonus: $437,900.
My rank: #102. MLB Pipeline: #212. Baseball America: #228. Prospects Live: #153.
Alejandro Rosario was a potential top one hundred pick out of high school in 2020, but he was raw and his asking price plus the shortened draft pushed him to college at Miami. The results haven't really been there in Coral Gables, so if you care about college pitchers' ERA, look away. After posting a 5.21 ERA as a freshman and a 7.05 ERA as a sophomore, he put up a career worst 7.11 ERA in 2023 to go along with a 91/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.2 innings. Obviously, you're not buying the performance here, but rather the stuff. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and tops out at 99, and Rosario maintains his velocity through his starts. His slider flashes plus with downer action, while his changeup has steadily developed and looks like a solid weapon in its own right. It's a pretty nasty three pitch mix, and he shouldn't get hit as hard as he does. Part of the issue may be a lack of deception, as Rosario opens early and gives hitters a long look at the ball out of his hand. He also shows fringy command and leaves a lot of balls over the plate. The Rangers are going to get creative with his development, certainly looking to mix up his pitch usage and make him a little less predictable from a hitter's perspective. There's a ton of upside here and more and more, teams are realizing that past performance, especially from pitchers, is not a strong predictor of future performance.

6-171: RHP Caden Scarborough, Harmony HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $339,400. Signing bonus: $515,000 ($175,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Caden Scarborough is way off the beaten path, having gone unranked on every major public draft board. That's never scared the Rangers before, and they popped him away from a Dallas Baptist commitment for late fourth round money. This is a total projection play. Scarborough currently sits around 90 with his fastball, usually topping around 91-92 in games with flat plane from a lower slot. His curveball looks promising with nice depth but needs to add significant power to miss bats in pro ball. Like I said though, the projection here is the draw. I've seen him variously listed anywhere from 6'5" to 6'7", and he's rail thin with room to add thirty or forty pounds to his towering frame. There's no sure things when it comes to pitching, but it's pretty much a lock that Scarborough will add significant velocity to both his fastball and his curveball. He's also a great athlete and a decorated basketball player, which should help him stay coordinated on the mound despite those long levers. The Rangers will need to be very patient, first stuffing him full of steaks and protein shakes to add weight while helping him round out his arsenal in order to remain a starter. This is a big time sleeper pick but the Rangers have hit on these before.

7-201: RHP Izack Tiger, Butler JC [KS] {video}
Slot value: $265,500. Signing bonus: $180,000 ($85,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #393.
I'm sorry, but is Izack Tiger not the coolest name in the draft? If not #1, it's certainly up there with Maui Ahuna and Carson Roccaforte. Regardless, he's got the stuff to match. A native of the eastern OKC suburb of Del City, Oklahoma, he has spent three seasons at Butler Community College in southern Kansas and finished off a solid 2023 where he posted a 3.93 ERA and a 121/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.2 innings. The fastball sits comfortably in the mid 90's and has been up to triple digits at times, coming in from a high slot with riding action. His hard cutter/slider comes in with upper 80's velocity and tight break, and he adds a solid changeup to boot. Everything is firm and he may need to incorporate something softer to change speeds more effectively, but you can't teach his kind of arm strength. Tiger attacks the strike zone but shows fringy command, often getting hit hard over the plate including on the Cape shortly before the draft, where his sharp 15/5 strikeout to walk ratio contrasted a bit with his .389 opponents' batting average. Already 22 and a half, he probably profiles better as a reliever in pro ball where he can simply seek to overpower hitters with his high octane stuff, and the Rangers could move him quickly in that role. In a brief Arizona Complex League stint, he allowed three runs (one earned) over four innings while striking out four and walking two.

8-231: C Julian Brock, Louisiana-Lafayette {video}
Slot value: $210,600. Signing bonus: $255,000 ($44,400 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #122. Baseball America: #371. Prospects Live: #275.
We get our first Texan here in the eighth round. Julian Brock is a product Fulshear, Houston's equivalent to Celina or Melissa in that it was a small town until very recently when it began to explode with brand new master planned communities. He headed east for college and spent four years at Louisiana-Lafayette, where he barely played as an underclassman before establishing himself as the starting catcher as a junior in 2022. He had his best year yet in 2023, slashing .315/.435/.559 with eleven home runs and a 53/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Standing 6'3", he comes with the power you'd expect from his big, strong frame, with the ability to produce some real moonshots to the pull side. He has become much more patient as he's progressed, helping him find good pitches to launch and driving up his on-base percentage. There are some questions about his ability to handle higher quality stuff, with some swing and miss present in the zone due to his power-conscious approach, but the offensive bar is lower for catchers and he's got the power/patience combination to hold his own in the lineup even if he hits for a low average. Brock is also a strong defender with natural feel for catching, showing off an above average arm that plays up due to his short arm stroke and ability to quickly pop out of the crouch. All of that points to a solid backup catcher profile, with the chance for more if he can make enough contact to tap his power regularly in games.

10-291: RHP Case Matter, Washington {video}
Slot value: $170,100. Signing bonus: $155,000 ($15,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #362. Prospects Live: #206.
Case Matter gives the Rangers yet another hard thrower. After serving as a swingman in 2022, Washington pushed him back to the bullpen in 2023 where he posted a 3.91 ERA and a 34/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings, which is nothing special but as with most of their picks this year, the Rangers are buying the stuff. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 97 with riding life from a lower release point, making it extremely difficult to square up. Matter can really rip through a breaking ball, too, but mostly pitches off his fastball and he hasn't always been consistent with his curveball and slider. To this point, everything has played down because he has below average command stemming from a high effort delivery with significant head whack in which he falls hard off to the glove side in his follow through. That will keep him in the bullpen long term, but with that high octane right arm, the Rangers think they can put him together just enough to be effective. If he can more effectively incorporate his offspeed stuff into his arsenal and show even fringy command, he'll be a big league reliever. In his brief Arizona Complex League stint, he allowed one run over three innings while striking out four and walking none.

11-321: OF Maxton Martin, Southridge HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($100,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Rangers used the rest of their available funds to go a bit over slot and sign Maxton Martin away from an Oregon commitment. The younger brother of Pirates prospect Mason Martin, who has hit well over one hundred minor league home runs and is currently in AAA, Maxton put his own name on the map with a strong spring. He packs a ton of strength into his 6'1" frame, showing off explosive bat speed that translates to plus raw power already. However, he has struggled to tap it against higher quality pitching, where his noisy load with a hitch makes it tough for him to get on plane with the baseball. He looked better this spring, but the transition to pro ball may not be smooth immediately. He's a decent runner that should lock down a corner outfield spot, and the Rangers hope more exposure and cleaned up mechanics will help him tap his prodigious power in games. There's some nice upside here even if he's a ways away. In ten games in the Arizona Complex League, he slashed .243/.378/.378 with one home run and an 11/8 strikeout to walk ratio.

12-351: RHP Paul Bonzagni, Southern Illinois {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Paul Bonzagni gives the Rangers another pitching prospect from North Texas. He grew up in the Grapevine, which sits between Dallas and Fort Worth and attended high school at local powerhouse Southlake Carroll. Originally committed to St. Edward's University in Austin, he switched gears and instead headed to Weatherford JC west of Fort Worth, then transferred out to Southern Illinois University this year. The numbers were decent at SIU, where he posted a 4.94 ERA and a 50/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings, but he pushed his name up draft boards with a strong turn in the Cape Cod League right before the draft in which he posted a 3.24 ERA and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.1 innings. Bonzagni sits in the mid 90's and tops out around 97 in short stints with running action, giving him very similar velocity to many other pitchers in this Rangers class. His short, sweeping slider looks like an above average pitch at this point and he can effectively turn over a changeup as well, giving him a really nice three pitch mix. Bonzagni pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen for SIU and never went more than two innings on the Cape, so it will be interesting to see what the Rangers do here. The 6'3" righty has a pretty easy delivery and shows close to average command, so they could run him out as a starter to see what happens. If not, he'll be a tough matchup as a reliever with that well-rounded arsenal and a semblance of command, potentially fitting into a long relief role. He looked sharp in his pro debut, posting a 2.38 ERA and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Down East.

13-381: RHP William Privette, College of Charleston {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #178. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #252. Prospects Live: #164.
It may be the thirteenth round, but I find William Privette to be a very interesting arm. He was untouchable as a sophomore at College of Charleston in 2022 (0.91 ERA, 80/15 K/BB) and continued to throw well in 2023, when he posted a 2.36 ERA and a 64/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 innings. The velocity isn't overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and topping out around 96 while throwing in short stints, but it's extremely deceptive. Privette leans back as he breaks towards the plate, hiding the ball well despite longer arm action and coming from an extreme over the top release point. The fastball itself has huge riding action, making it a true invisiball. For now, he pitches almost exclusively off that fastball, also working in a solid changeup and a decent curveball. The 6'6" righty pounds the strike zone with average command, though it did take a slight step back in 2023. Going forward, he'll need to take a step forward with at least one of his offspeed offerings, but between his deceptive fastball, command, and size, the Rangers have a lot to get creative with and I think he'll work his way into the Texas bullpen sooner rather than later. He did get blown up a bit in a brief Arizona Complex League debut, allowing seven runs (five earned) over two innings, striking out two but walking eight.

Friday, December 2, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at low and mid-majors (east)

2022 draftees: 95. Top school: Southern Miss (5).
2022 preseason writeup (published 11/1/2021)

Top draftees:
1-13, Angels: SS Zach Neto (Campbell)
1-16, Guardians: OF Chase DeLauter (James Madison)
1-27, Brewers: SS Eric Brown (Coastal Carolina)
1-30, Giants: LHP Reggie Crawford (Connecticut)
CBA-36, Pirates: RHP Thomas Harrington (Campbell)
2-58, Mariners: 3B Tyler Locklear (Virginia Commonwealth)
2-66, Giants: LHP Carson Whisenhunt (East Carolina)

This article will focus on the Division I programs outside of the traditional Power Five conferences east of the Mississippi River, but programs like ECU, Central Michigan, Coastal Carolina, Campbell, and Southern Miss, among many others, ensure that we're still talking about a very high level of play perhaps even higher than the Big Ten in some conferences. Southern Miss, for its part, led the programs in this category with five draftees a year ago, more than any team in the Big Ten, and returns another big name on this list in Tanner Hall even with likely first round pick Hurston Waldrep transferring to Florida.

The name Hurston Waldrep actually brings out an interesting factor. Now in the transfer era, it's only natural that the best players at smaller programs want to transfer to larger programs, and if there's a spot open, why shouldn't they? What that means for this list, though, is that there was a small exodus of talent to other lists – Waldrep from Southern Miss to Florida and Colton Ledbetter from Samford to Auburn as far as my previous lists go, plus Carter Trice from Old Dominion to NC State that just missed the ACC list. So that's at least three players that would have made this list that are instead trying their hands in the SEC and ACC. But that doesn't mean it's slim pickings around the Sun Belt, American, Big South, and elsewhere. No one school put multiple names on this list, but Southern Miss would have if they held on to Waldrep. A year ago, five different players from eastern mid major programs went in the first 36 picks – we'll have to see who emerges to make that happen again this year, but that's usually the case with the smaller schools. There are a lot of late bloomers here.

One more interesting theme: In an era where players often travel across the country to play college ball, nine of the ten players on this list stayed in their home state for college ball, and the only one to cross state lines, Tanner Hall of Southern Miss, still stayed within three hours of his hometown in Louisiana. Additionally, in an era where from personal experience I feel like I have seen many players who were on the older side for the class, each of the top nine players on this list will still be 20 years old at the end of January. And with four players who will still be 20 at the start of May, youth is certainly a theme.

1. RHP Cade Kuehler, Campbell.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 5/24/2002. Hometown: Waxhaw, NC.
2022: 4-6, 4.07 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 111/38 K/BB in 84 innings.
Last year, Zach Neto was the first mid major player drafted from the eastern half of the country, and Campbell enters the 2023 season with the favorite to do it again in Cade Kuehler. He hasn't posted loud numbers yet for the Fighting Camels, but the stuff is certainly loud and he has a chance to take a big step forward this spring. His fastball sits comfortably in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96-97 with ease during his starts, but he has hit as high as 99 in shorter stints. Beyond the plus velocity, he gets explosive riding life on the pitch despite an unremarkable release point, so it can really perform when it's commanded. The fastball steals the show for now, but Kuehler also brings in a full arsenal of secondaries working in a short, hard slider, a bigger curveball, and a changeup. The slider is probably his best secondary for now, but the deep arsenal is strong throughout and he can consistently steal strikes with any of them. Further helping his profile is his delivery, in which he turns back towards second base and shows his back to the hitter before unfurling and firing towards the plate. For now, it does impact his command and that is likely the culprit for his unremarkable numbers (though you do love to see the 31.2% strikeout rate), but he's young for a college junior with a May birthday and has plenty of time to figure things out. If he can better keep his delivery in sync through that long trunk rotation, it's an easy first round profile given the stuff. Ironing out that command will also help stave off reliever questions, which aren't present yet but may arise due to his shorter stature and exaggerated delivery.

2. 1B Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'3", 195 lbs. Born 2/14/2002. Hometown: Boynton Beach, FL.
2022: 16 HR, .369/.477/.658, 11 SB, 22/39 K/BB in 58 games.
Unlike Cade Kuehler, Nolan Schanuel's numbers do indeed pop off the page. He's been an absolute force since arriving in Boca Raton just up the road from his hometown of Boynton Beach, slashing .357/.462/.619 with 27 home runs and more than twice as many walks and HBP's (89) as strikeouts (43) over his two seasons. Unfortunately those numbers did not carry over to the Cape Cod League, where he went up against better pitching with wood bats and slashed just .211/.356/.324 in 41 games. Schanuel has an elite approach at the plate with strong feel for the barrel, and even as he struggled to make an impact on the Cape, he still walked more (15.8%) than he struck out (15.3%), a very impressive feat in that league. Maintaining that elite ability to control the zone even when jumping from Conference USA to the Cape speaks volumes to the hit tool, and it should make evaluators very comfortable that he will be completely unfazed by higher level pitching in pro ball. And with FAU, you couldn't ask for better production. He holds his hands high in his stance, dropping them down in his load before throwing them through the zone with a loose, accurate barrel. He has worked to get stronger and he jumped from 23 extra base hits as a freshman to 33 as a sophomore, though he had just nine on the Cape and his ability to tap more than average power is a big question given his defensive limitations. He has played mostly first base at FAU, though he has experience in the outfield corners and he has enough speed to make it work out there if he doesn't slow down with age. Hit over power first base profiles aren't all that common, though this draft has three famous names on the college side in Schanuel, LSU's Tre' Morgan, and Oregon State's Garret Forrester that fit that profile. If he can bulk up a little more with that 6'3" frame, he does have the swing and feel for the barrel to tap 20+ home run power at his ceiling. For now, he profiles for high on-base percentages and 15-20 home runs a year as a median projection.

3. RHP Tanner Hall, Southern Miss.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 185 lbs. Born 3/18/2002. Hometown: Zachary, LA.
2022: 9-3, 2.81 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 146/14 K/BB in 109 innings.
A year ago, Tanner Hall and Hurston Waldrep formed the best 1-2 punch of underclass pitchers in the country. Waldrep transferred to Florida, and while he is the better prospect of the two, Hall actually outpitched him last year. His 146 strikeouts were fourth in the country last year (Waldrep's 140 were eighth), and if you take the top 35 on the NCAA Division I strikeout leaderboard, he and Astros fourth round pick Trey Dombroski (120 strikeouts) tied for the fewest walks at 14. Hall has a solid three pitch mix, starting with a fastball around 90 with run and sink that helps it play above its average velocity. His slider is an above average pitch with sweeping action across the plate, while his changeup is above average in its own right with drop. Everything plays way up, of course, because of his plus command that helps him pick hitters apart while executing on that three pitch mix. He also hides the ball well, which combined with his command and the movement he gets on his pitches from a low three quarters arm slot, makes for an extremely tough at bat for hitters. It's the kind of profile the Guardians could turn into a big league ace, and if he adds a tick or two of velocity to get more comfortably into the low 90's, we have a very intriguing top two rounds prospect. Until he adds that velocity, he may fit better towards the back of the second/early third round range. He'll be one to watch closely now that he'll own the spotlight on the mound in Hattiesburg.

4. C Michael Carico, Davidson.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 9/4/2002. Hometown: Kernersville, NC.
2022: 21 HR, .406/.559/.843, 3 SB, 35/46 K/BB in 54 games.
I mentioned that Nolan Schanuel has posted incredible numbers at FAU, but Michael Carico's numbers at Davidson make Schanuel's look like child's play. Lightly recruited out of high school, he didn't make much of an impact as a freshman but exploded as a sophomore for one of the craziest stat lines in the country. His .559 on-base percentage led all of Division I, while his .843 slugging percentage was third and his .406 batting average finished eighth. In terms of production, it doesn't get any better than that. Like Schanuel, he brings elite plate discipline and rarely chases, allowing him to consistently find good pitches to hit. When Carico does get his pitch, he never misses it, punishing those mistakes at an elite level. His elite feel for the barrel from a controlled, leveraged left handed swing helps him tap above average power in games, setting the Davidson home run record this past spring. If there is one hole in his offensive game, it's that he's not quite proven against higher level pitching. Just eleven of his 54 games came against teams that made the NCAA Tournament, none of which placed better than a #3 seed, though to be fair he did hit .413/.500/.826 with five home runs and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio over those elven games. But ultimately, it was a very weak schedule if four games against VCU represents far and away your toughest test. He did go on to play in the Northwoods League over the summer, which isn't quite the Cape Cod League but still features strong competition, and he hit .263/.482/.447 over 24 games there. Ultimately, I believe his elite discipline at the plate will help him make that jump from the Atlantic 10 Conference to pro ball, but it is a jump, more so than Schanuel's jump from the C-USA. Defensively, the Piedmont Triad native is more athletic than most catchers and has a very good chance to stick back there, which would buy even more time for his bat to transition up. Lastly, Carico is also very young for the class, not turning 21 for more than a month after the draft and checking in younger than a few members of the 2024 college draft class.

5. OF Drew Brutcher, South Florida.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'5", 205 lbs. Born 2/12/2002. Hometown: Lakeland, FL.
2022: 13 HR, .299/.447/.610, 1 SB, 60/37 K/BB in 43 games.
Drew Brutcher brings with him shades of Aaron Judge and Spencer Jones, but he's left handed. A career .297/.436/.582 hitter with 21 home runs in 75 games over two seasons in Tampa, he has been one of the better hitters in the AAC despite missing time in both seasons with injuries. He carried that success over to the Cape Cod League as well, where he slashed .270/.355/.409 with three home runs in 40 games. Brutcher is immensely talented, standing 6'5" with as much physical upside as any player in the class. The ball really jumps off his bat, coming in with a loose, leveraged left handed swing that helps him get to balls all over the zone and exert plus power. He also brings a very patient approach at the plate, helping him run an 18.6% walk rate at USF last year and 9.7% on the Cape, but his pure bat to ball and pitch recognition skills aren't quite there yet even with the adjustability in his swing. That's led to very elevated strikeout rates, including 30.2% at USF last year and 29.7% on the Cape, both well above where he needs to be. The good news is that between his power, adjustable swing, and patience at the plate, he already has most of the building blocks he needs to become an impact hitter. Taller hitters sometimes take longer to cut down on the swing and miss, and 2023 will be about recognizing pitches better in order to put it all together. The elevated strikeout rates have clearly not hurt his production yet. Defensively, he's a solid runner with a good arm that can play all over the outfield, though he may end up being pushed off center field as he slows down with age. It's an interesting sleeper profile that could break out into one for the top two rounds if he puts it together.

6. RHP Jay Driver, Harvard.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 195 lbs. Born 2/25/2002. Hometown: Wellesley, MA.
2022: 1-1, 1.91 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 45/13 K/BB in 28.1 innings.
Jay Driver comes to us with very limited track record, as the Ivy League's absurd COVID policies robbed him of his freshman season and he made just fifteen relief appearances as a sophomore. However, he opened a lot of eyes in those 28.1 innings and further made a name for himself on the Cape last summer, where he posted a 4.85 ERA but ran a very strong 48/10 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.2 innings, some even as a starter. That has him in position to become the Ivy League's first top five round pick since Yale's Rohan Handa went to the Giants in 2021, their first top four round pick since Cornell's Brent Jones went to the Diamondbacks in 2014, or even the first top three round pick since Princeton's David Hale went to the Braves way back in 2009. Driver sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 97 in short stints, getting plenty of sink and run on the pitch from a sidearm slot. His sweeping slider flashes plus and can make hitters look foolish, helping him run up a 39.5% strikeout rate at Harvard and a 38.1% rate on the Cape, while his fading changeup gives him a third weapon. It's a really strong three pitch mix from an unusual arm angle that misses bats in bunches, and while his command is probably fringy for now, the stuff has still been enough to overwhelm Ivy League hitters and keep Cape Cod League hitters at bay. The 6'3" righty has a projectable, athletic frame and did see four starts on the Cape after pitching exclusively in relief for Harvard, but he hasn't been stretched out in that role consistently yet and it's unknown how the stuff and command will hold up over longer stretches. It's probably a bullpen profile, but it's one of my favorites in the class and one to keep a close eye on this spring.

7. RHP Trey Gibson, Liberty.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 230 lbs. Born 5/18/2002. Hometown: Yorktown, VA.
2022: 3-5, 6.75 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 72/30 K/BB in 56 innings.
Trey Gibson established himself as one of the best young pitchers in the A-Sun as a freshman, when he put up a 3.32 ERA and a 70/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings, but he took a step backward as a sophomore when his walk rate jumped from 7.9% to 11.2% and his ERA more than doubled. Still, the size, arm strength, and deep arsenal have plenty of scouts interested. Gibson sits in the low 90's with his fastball with the ability to reach back for a little more, though it's a fairly generic pitch movement-wise. He stands out for a big, deep curveball that misses a lot of bats, adding in a sweepier slider and a solid changeup to make for a quality four pitch mix. That, combined with the big, physical, 6'5" frame, has many scouts believing in his upside as a #4 starter in the big leagues. To get there, though, he'll have to improve his strike throwing, as his longer arm action leaves him with inconsistent command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff. He has quality stuff, especially the curveball, but it's not quite explosive enough to make up for being left over the plate or falling behind in the count, leading to that 6.75 ERA a year ago. He is young, only turning 21 a couple months before the draft, and that does help his case when it comes to putting everything together, but it still needs to happen. He figures to go somewhere in the middle of day two right now.

8. OF Jake Cunningham, Charlotte.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 205 lbs. Born 7/3/2002. Hometown: Charlotte, NC.
2022: 16 HR, .304/.410/.595, 16 SB, 69/38 K/BB in 57 games.
Jake Cunningham brings some similarities to Drew Brutcher a couple spots above him on this list. Besides playing for a green and gold team in or coming to the AAC, he's a lanky, toolsy outfielder with hit tool questions coming off a big season. Cunningham didn't hit much as a freshman, but broke out for a huge sophomore season that earned him a spot in the Cape Cod League over the summer. He struggled there in a brief, seven game sample (.174/.269/.217), but he is firmly on area scouts' radars now. The Charlotte native takes big hacks from the right side, helping him generate above average power that he taps in games and which may become plus as he fills out. Cunningham shows strong pitch recognition skills that helps him get good pitches to hit, but that longer swing can lead to some swing and miss and he struck out in over a quarter of his plate appearances last spring. As I mentioned with Brutcher, that can be natural for taller young hitters and many outgrow it in time. The fact that Cunningham is very young for his class, only turning 21 shortly before the draft, adds to that upside. He's also an above average runner with a chance to play center field in the long run, though also like Brutcher, a better defender could push him to right field where he would be above average. Aside from the pure bat to ball skills, it's a very well rounded profile that has already become a problem for opposing pitchers in the C-USA.

9. RHP William Privette, College of Charleston.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 210 lbs. Born 2/1/2002. Hometown: Chapin, SC.
2022: 3-1, 0.91 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 80/15 K/BB in 59.1 innings.
College of Charleston was quietly a very solid team last year, winning the CAA regular season title at 19-5 in conference on their way to a 37-20 finish. A big reason for that success was their closer, William Privette, who is looking to be the first Cougar drafted in the top five rounds since Taylor Clarke and Carl Wise went in the third and fourth round, respectively, in 2015. In fact, Charleston hasn't had a player drafted at all since three Cougars heard their names called in 2019, so Privette is a very exciting development for the program. He dominated CAA hitters with a 0.91 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, while recording nearly twice as many strikeouts (80) as baserunners allowed (49). He carried that success on to the Cape Cod League, where he made six relief appearances and posted a 1.74 ERA and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings. Privette won't light up the radar gun, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding a solid breaking ball that plays well off the heater. It all plays up, though, for a variety of reasons. Despite longer arm action, the 6'5" righty manages to keep everything in sync and shows above average control, helping him stay ahead in the count and keep his pitches closer to the zones where they'll play better. He also shows heavy trunk tilt that helps him create a very vertical release point closer to the first base side of the rubber than you would expect from a right hander, and it works with his setup as he pitches from the first base side already. He also gets some sneaky life on his fastball up in the zone, and together, it's a great relief profile that provides a fairly unique look. It will be interesting to see if Charleston runs him out as a starter at any point, but he has been so successful in a relief role that they may not want to mess with it. With two quality pitches, good command, a big frame, a unique look, and a track record of performance, he checks a lot of boxes for a college reliever.

10. RHP Eriq Swan, Middle Tennessee State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'6", 240 lbs. Born 10/31/2001. Hometown: Murfreesboro, TN.
2022: 2-6, 7.62 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 44/31 K/BB in 52 innings.
Eriq Swan gives us a second big right handed reliever in a row, but he is virtually the opposite of William Privette as a prospect. Swan showed well in a small sample as a freshman at Middle Tennessee State, but really struggled as a sophomore when he allowed more than a run per inning and ran just a 17.2% strikeout rate to a 12.1% walk rate. He earned three early season appearances in the Cape Cod League over the summer and showed extremely well, tossing eight shutout innings while allowing just four hits and one walk mixed in with eleven strikeouts. It was all punctuated in his final appearance, when he struck out eight of the eleven Falmouth batters he faced on June 25th including Drew Brutcher on this list and possible top ten pick Brayden Taylor of TCU. Swan is a fireballer, sitting comfortably in the mid 90's as a starter and running it as high as 99 in short stints, all with a fairly effortless delivery from a huge 6'6" frame. He also drops in a a solid slider with great depth, though it does need too add power to miss pro bats, and shows feel for a solid changeup as well. To this point, he has not missed many bats at MTSU and looks like he would fit much better in relief, as his command is better in short spurts and it's easier for him to maintain his stuff. College starters who transition to relief work in pro ball often fare better than those who were already pure relievers when they were drafted, and if his short Cape run is any indication, Swan could be a sleeper to benefit from such a move with his power fastball and two quality offspeeds.