C Drew Romo, The Woodlands HS [TX]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/29/2001. B/T: S/R
Commitment: Louisiana State
It's a strong group of high school catchers this year, and while Tyler Soderstrom has moved ahead into the top spot in that demographic, Romo remains the best with a high likelihood of sticking behind the plate. A glove-first catcher, Romo has been a well-known name for a long time now, playing high school ball for Houston-area powerhouse The Woodlands High School and holding an LSU commitment in hand. He was in line to be a first round pick until a slow start to his senior season hurt his stock a little bit.
For Romo, everything starts with the glove. He's an excellent defender in all facets of the game, with no doubt of not only sticking behind the plate, but of being an impact defender at a premium position. He combines a very strong arm with excellent blocking and receiving skills, giving him the best all-around defensive projection of perhaps any player in the 2020 draft class, regardless of position or whether they're in high school or college. On the other side, though, the bat needs work. Romo is a switch hitter, and he packs a lot of strength and leverage into his 6'1" frame. Romo then deploys that leverage into a swing that's pretty simple from both sides of the plate, though just how much impact he'll generate remains a question. He shows a good approach at the plate, but his overall hit tool is just average and he doesn't get to a ton of power. He has the long arms and frame to tap into more, but overall, it's hard to see him hitting for more than average power. A slow start to the spring certainly doesn't help his case there, and neither does his age (he's a bit old for the class, turning 19 in August).
It's so hard to find good hitting catchers nowadays that many teams don't even have one. The two World Series teams in 2019, the Nationals and Astros, got there while using a combination of Kurt Suzuki (.264/.324/.486), Yan Gomes (.223/.316/.389), Robinson Chirinos (.238/.347/.443), and Martin Maldonado (.213/.293/.378). That's really good news for a guy like Drew Romo, because there will be only the minimum amount of pressure on his bat. Still, he has to hit a little bit, and he'll need to make significant strides offensively if he wants to be a starting catcher. High school catchers are incredibly risky, with even the early round guys tending to bust more often than they pan out, and that certainly plays into Romo's profile. All of that said, I do think there is reason for optimism. His mature approach at the plate and ability to work counts and find good hitters will work in his favor as he learns to deploy his power, and he has the natural body type to tap that power. If he does, even a little bit, you have a big league catcher in an era where there just aren't a lot of them.
Romo's ceiling is that of an average hitting catcher with elite defense – perhaps not the most exciting profile, but an extremely valuable one. The risk here is considerable too, since there's a good chance he doesn't even reach that baseline of offensive production you need to justify a big league roster spot. A realistic middle projection for him might be as a defense-oriented backup catcher. I'm wary of high school catchers, as are most scouting departments, but Romo might not quite fit into that trend because he's so good defensively and will be able to devote a lot more time to his bat. A potential first rounder heading into the season, he probably fits more in the comp round now.
Game action over the summer
More summer action, batting practice and defense
Thursday, April 30, 2020
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Jordan Westburg
SS Jordan Westburg, Mississippi State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/18/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .317/.432/.517, 2 SB, 15/6 K/BB in 16 games
Sometimes, players just look like ballplayers, even if the results on the field don't always match. Westburg didn't do much as a freshman at Mississippi State, then hit .294/.402/.457 with six home runs as a sophomore in 2019, a productive slash line that still didn't quite match his skill set. Then over the summer, he hit .326/.385/.516 with four home runs and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games in the elite Cape Cod League, raising his profile to the fringes of the first round. A strong 2020 could have pushed him firmly into that first round, but his .317/.432/.517 line remained a bit mixed as he struck out in 20.3% of his plate appearances.
Despite a lengthy SEC career and a Cape Cod resume, Westburg remains a bit of an enigma. He shows above average to plus raw power in batting practice, a product of his quick hands, innate athleticism, and 6'3" frame. That raw power showed up on the Cape, where he hit four home runs with wood bats against elite pitching, but it hasn't quite been there with the Bulldogs, with whom he's hit ten home runs in 124 games. His swing is a bit rigid, and since it doesn't have a ton of loft, he hits more line drives in games. Additionally, his aggressive approach leads to mediocre K/BB numbers, including 69/39 in 2019 and 15/6 in 2020. Typically, approaches like that don't work well against higher level pitching, but he showed us differently in that 25 game sample on the Cape. Westburg is also a very good runner despite only stealing nine bases in his college career and none on the Cape. Defensively, he's fringy at shortstop, with the ability to stick with a few more refinements but also a good chance of ending up at second or third base, where he would be above average.
It's a weird, mixed profile for Westburg, one that features a lot of raw ability but not a ton of track record outside of the Cape, oddly enough. He's not quite as toolsy as Casey Martin, another SEC infielder with a very aggressive approach, but he is bigger and does have that Cape production under his belt. He's clearly a gifted athlete, and all it may take might be a little swing adjustment and better patience in the box, after which he could take off. It's a little bit more projection than you have to do with most college hitters in this range of the draft, but it might be well worth it anywhere from the back of the first round to the early second round.
2020 fielding and batting practice
2019 BP and game action with the US CNT
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/18/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .317/.432/.517, 2 SB, 15/6 K/BB in 16 games
Sometimes, players just look like ballplayers, even if the results on the field don't always match. Westburg didn't do much as a freshman at Mississippi State, then hit .294/.402/.457 with six home runs as a sophomore in 2019, a productive slash line that still didn't quite match his skill set. Then over the summer, he hit .326/.385/.516 with four home runs and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games in the elite Cape Cod League, raising his profile to the fringes of the first round. A strong 2020 could have pushed him firmly into that first round, but his .317/.432/.517 line remained a bit mixed as he struck out in 20.3% of his plate appearances.
Despite a lengthy SEC career and a Cape Cod resume, Westburg remains a bit of an enigma. He shows above average to plus raw power in batting practice, a product of his quick hands, innate athleticism, and 6'3" frame. That raw power showed up on the Cape, where he hit four home runs with wood bats against elite pitching, but it hasn't quite been there with the Bulldogs, with whom he's hit ten home runs in 124 games. His swing is a bit rigid, and since it doesn't have a ton of loft, he hits more line drives in games. Additionally, his aggressive approach leads to mediocre K/BB numbers, including 69/39 in 2019 and 15/6 in 2020. Typically, approaches like that don't work well against higher level pitching, but he showed us differently in that 25 game sample on the Cape. Westburg is also a very good runner despite only stealing nine bases in his college career and none on the Cape. Defensively, he's fringy at shortstop, with the ability to stick with a few more refinements but also a good chance of ending up at second or third base, where he would be above average.
It's a weird, mixed profile for Westburg, one that features a lot of raw ability but not a ton of track record outside of the Cape, oddly enough. He's not quite as toolsy as Casey Martin, another SEC infielder with a very aggressive approach, but he is bigger and does have that Cape production under his belt. He's clearly a gifted athlete, and all it may take might be a little swing adjustment and better patience in the box, after which he could take off. It's a little bit more projection than you have to do with most college hitters in this range of the draft, but it might be well worth it anywhere from the back of the first round to the early second round.
2020 fielding and batting practice
2019 BP and game action with the US CNT
Sunday, April 26, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: CJ Van Eyk
RHP CJ Van Eyk, Florida State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/15/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-1, 1.31 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 20.2 IP
Van Eyk has had an interesting ride. A potential top five rounds pick out of a Tampa-area high school in 2017, arm troubles and signability pushed him out of that range and he ended up in Tallahassee wearing maroon and gold. He was an immediate contributor as a freshman (2.86 ERA, 71/30 K/BB) and kept on rolling as a sophomore (3.81 ERA, 129/41 K/BB), with his 129 strikeouts finishing second in the ACC to only Louisville's Reid Detmers' 167. Among underclassmen nationally, only Detmers, Ball State's Drey Jameson (146), and Texas A&M's Asa Lacy (130) had more. Because of this, Van Eyk entered this draft cycle as somewhat of a "brand name" ACC starting pitcher, one with 17 wins already under his belt, plenty of national exposure, and a big curveball to make the scouts happy. While he hasn't necessarily underwhelmed in 2020 (nobody would call a 1.31 ERA "underwhelming"), the helium behind many other college arms in the same range has given Van Eyk's stock a bit of a market correction and pushed him out of the first round, but he remains one of the better arms in the loaded 2020 class.
Standing 6'1", Van Eyk comes in with a fastball in the low 90's, and there's a little bit of crossfire action in his delivery that puts good diagonal angle on the ball towards the glove side. His best pitch is a big 12-6 curveball, one which he has great feel for and which has helped him rack up 225 strikeouts during his time at Florida State. Van Eyk finishes it off with a changeup and a slider, the latter of which is his fourth pitch and less essential to the operation. His command is a little below average, but it plays up just a bit because of his aggressiveness in the zone and willingness to go right after hitters. After missing some time in high school with arm soreness, he's proven durable in college over 176.2 innings and fits the profile of a workhorse starter.
Together, I think it's very clear what Van Eyk brings to the table. He doesn't really have that ace upside since he doesn't have big velocity, great command, or a projectable frame that figures to add that velocity, but he's a proven performer with a career 3.21 ERA at Florida State who can fool even advanced college hitters with his curveball. It's a #3 or #4 starter projection, and he's a relatively safe bet to be at least a #5. That puts his likely draft range just outside the first round, either in the comp round or the early second round, though his track record of performance should be very beneficial in a year where a lot of guys don't have that.
2020 start vs FAU
2020 Bryce Jarvis vs CJ Van Eyk matchup
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/15/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-1, 1.31 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 20.2 IP
Van Eyk has had an interesting ride. A potential top five rounds pick out of a Tampa-area high school in 2017, arm troubles and signability pushed him out of that range and he ended up in Tallahassee wearing maroon and gold. He was an immediate contributor as a freshman (2.86 ERA, 71/30 K/BB) and kept on rolling as a sophomore (3.81 ERA, 129/41 K/BB), with his 129 strikeouts finishing second in the ACC to only Louisville's Reid Detmers' 167. Among underclassmen nationally, only Detmers, Ball State's Drey Jameson (146), and Texas A&M's Asa Lacy (130) had more. Because of this, Van Eyk entered this draft cycle as somewhat of a "brand name" ACC starting pitcher, one with 17 wins already under his belt, plenty of national exposure, and a big curveball to make the scouts happy. While he hasn't necessarily underwhelmed in 2020 (nobody would call a 1.31 ERA "underwhelming"), the helium behind many other college arms in the same range has given Van Eyk's stock a bit of a market correction and pushed him out of the first round, but he remains one of the better arms in the loaded 2020 class.
Standing 6'1", Van Eyk comes in with a fastball in the low 90's, and there's a little bit of crossfire action in his delivery that puts good diagonal angle on the ball towards the glove side. His best pitch is a big 12-6 curveball, one which he has great feel for and which has helped him rack up 225 strikeouts during his time at Florida State. Van Eyk finishes it off with a changeup and a slider, the latter of which is his fourth pitch and less essential to the operation. His command is a little below average, but it plays up just a bit because of his aggressiveness in the zone and willingness to go right after hitters. After missing some time in high school with arm soreness, he's proven durable in college over 176.2 innings and fits the profile of a workhorse starter.
Together, I think it's very clear what Van Eyk brings to the table. He doesn't really have that ace upside since he doesn't have big velocity, great command, or a projectable frame that figures to add that velocity, but he's a proven performer with a career 3.21 ERA at Florida State who can fool even advanced college hitters with his curveball. It's a #3 or #4 starter projection, and he's a relatively safe bet to be at least a #5. That puts his likely draft range just outside the first round, either in the comp round or the early second round, though his track record of performance should be very beneficial in a year where a lot of guys don't have that.
2020 start vs FAU
2020 Bryce Jarvis vs CJ Van Eyk matchup
Saturday, April 25, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Dax Fulton
LHP Dax Fulton, Mustang HS [OK]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/16/2001. Commitment: Oklahoma
The south side of Oklahoma City boasts three top draft prospects with day one aspirations between Mustang's Dax Fulton, Westmoore's Jace Bohrofen, and Norman's Cade Horton, who are all committed to play at Oklahoma. Unfortunately, Fulton would never have gotten the chance to compete against them in 2020 even if play had gone on as normal, as Tommy John surgery wiped out his senior year. Before the injury, he had the chance to pitch himself into the middle of the first round as arguably the most talented high school lefty in the class (especially after Nate Savino graduated early to head to Virginia), but he still retains the latter title even post-injury.
Fulton is an intimidating presence on the mound, already standing 6'6" with a mature build. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but his height helps him get good angle on the ball and he's projectable enough to add more velocity in the future. His best pitch is a big 12-6 curveball with exceptional vertical break. He has great feel for the pitch and it's not just a slow looper, showing considerable power as well. His changeup is coming along, though as with most high school pitchers, it's hard to say much about it. Fulton also does a good job commanding his arsenal, giving him plenty of starter traits at a young age.
Tommy John surgery isn't nearly as big of a deal as it used to be, so Fulton remains a very attractive prospect as arguably the best prep left hander in the class. With a fastball that projects to add more velocity, a great breaking ball, and solid command from a 6'6" frame, he's well positioned to grow into an impact starter. He'll of course need to be worked back slowly from the surgery and won't be ready to pitch until spring training 2021, but nobody is going to get to throw much this year anyways. Like any prep pitcher, he still has a few things to work on, including further refining his command and changeup, but there's a lot to like. It might not be cheap to buy him out of his Oklahoma commitment, but if he's signable, he should come off the board in the comp round or early second round range.
Summer ball in the PDP league
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/16/2001. Commitment: Oklahoma
The south side of Oklahoma City boasts three top draft prospects with day one aspirations between Mustang's Dax Fulton, Westmoore's Jace Bohrofen, and Norman's Cade Horton, who are all committed to play at Oklahoma. Unfortunately, Fulton would never have gotten the chance to compete against them in 2020 even if play had gone on as normal, as Tommy John surgery wiped out his senior year. Before the injury, he had the chance to pitch himself into the middle of the first round as arguably the most talented high school lefty in the class (especially after Nate Savino graduated early to head to Virginia), but he still retains the latter title even post-injury.
Fulton is an intimidating presence on the mound, already standing 6'6" with a mature build. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but his height helps him get good angle on the ball and he's projectable enough to add more velocity in the future. His best pitch is a big 12-6 curveball with exceptional vertical break. He has great feel for the pitch and it's not just a slow looper, showing considerable power as well. His changeup is coming along, though as with most high school pitchers, it's hard to say much about it. Fulton also does a good job commanding his arsenal, giving him plenty of starter traits at a young age.
Tommy John surgery isn't nearly as big of a deal as it used to be, so Fulton remains a very attractive prospect as arguably the best prep left hander in the class. With a fastball that projects to add more velocity, a great breaking ball, and solid command from a 6'6" frame, he's well positioned to grow into an impact starter. He'll of course need to be worked back slowly from the surgery and won't be ready to pitch until spring training 2021, but nobody is going to get to throw much this year anyways. Like any prep pitcher, he still has a few things to work on, including further refining his command and changeup, but there's a lot to like. It might not be cheap to buy him out of his Oklahoma commitment, but if he's signable, he should come off the board in the comp round or early second round range.
Summer ball in the PDP league
2020 Draft Profile: Bobby Miller
RHP Bobby Miller, Louisville
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/5/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-0, 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 34/9 K/BB in 23.1 IP
The second best pitching prospect on a loaded Louisville team this year, Miller started the season off in the second round range, but quickly pitched himself towards the first. Through four starts in 2020, he had a 2.31 ERA and a 34/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.1 innings, including a one run, twelve strikeout performance against Valparaiso on February 22nd. The big righty considerably improved his in-zone command in 2020, giving his big fastball/slider combination a much better chance to stick in the rotation than previously thought.
Miller is a huge guy, standing 6'5", and his long arm path makes him look even bigger. Additionally, he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for 99 if he wants to. His long arm action, plus the fact that he falls off a bit to his arm side as he releases the ball, puts great angle and life on the baseball that makes it feel like you're swinging at a kettle bell. His slider, which previously stood out more for its upper 80's velocity than for its movement, has shown more bite and flashes plus regularly, though it remains just a little bit inconsistent. He also adds a changeup and a curveball, but for the most part, it's that fastball/slider combination that scouts are excited about.
The command is the interesting piece here. He's never had terrible command, but he was prone to leaving the ball over the plate in the past and that led to a relatively pedestrian 3.83 ERA and 86/38 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore. Early reports from 2020 show improved command, and while he did walk nine batters in 23.1 innings, the improvement is apparently enough to give scouts confidence he can start. There is still risk due to the shorter track record of hitting his spots and the fact that he's been hit harder than his stuff says he should at times, but he's trending in the right direction.
Miller's ceiling is that of a frontline starter, and teams who like power fastballs would love to take him towards the end of the first round. Even if he is forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could make him a closer, and it gives him a bit of a higher floor. Refining that slider just a bit more will help him get there, while refining his changeup and command just a bit further will help him be that frontline starter. Georgia's Cole Wilcox and Miami's Chris McMahon are still likely to go ahead of him, but he does have a shot at beating those two out and being the first Saturday (college #2) starter off the board.
2020 start vs Valparaiso
2019 summer video with the US CNT
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/5/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-0, 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 34/9 K/BB in 23.1 IP
The second best pitching prospect on a loaded Louisville team this year, Miller started the season off in the second round range, but quickly pitched himself towards the first. Through four starts in 2020, he had a 2.31 ERA and a 34/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.1 innings, including a one run, twelve strikeout performance against Valparaiso on February 22nd. The big righty considerably improved his in-zone command in 2020, giving his big fastball/slider combination a much better chance to stick in the rotation than previously thought.
Miller is a huge guy, standing 6'5", and his long arm path makes him look even bigger. Additionally, he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for 99 if he wants to. His long arm action, plus the fact that he falls off a bit to his arm side as he releases the ball, puts great angle and life on the baseball that makes it feel like you're swinging at a kettle bell. His slider, which previously stood out more for its upper 80's velocity than for its movement, has shown more bite and flashes plus regularly, though it remains just a little bit inconsistent. He also adds a changeup and a curveball, but for the most part, it's that fastball/slider combination that scouts are excited about.
The command is the interesting piece here. He's never had terrible command, but he was prone to leaving the ball over the plate in the past and that led to a relatively pedestrian 3.83 ERA and 86/38 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore. Early reports from 2020 show improved command, and while he did walk nine batters in 23.1 innings, the improvement is apparently enough to give scouts confidence he can start. There is still risk due to the shorter track record of hitting his spots and the fact that he's been hit harder than his stuff says he should at times, but he's trending in the right direction.
Miller's ceiling is that of a frontline starter, and teams who like power fastballs would love to take him towards the end of the first round. Even if he is forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could make him a closer, and it gives him a bit of a higher floor. Refining that slider just a bit more will help him get there, while refining his changeup and command just a bit further will help him be that frontline starter. Georgia's Cole Wilcox and Miami's Chris McMahon are still likely to go ahead of him, but he does have a shot at beating those two out and being the first Saturday (college #2) starter off the board.
2020 start vs Valparaiso
2019 summer video with the US CNT
Friday, April 24, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Bryce Jarvis
RHP Bryce Jarvis, Duke
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/26/1997.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 0.67 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 40/2 K/BB in 27 innings
You'd be hard pressed to find someone who out-pitched Bryce Jarvis in 2020, no matter where you look. He was pretty good over his first two years at Duke (10-3, 3.29 ERA, 161/59 K/BB), but relief questions kept him from becoming an elite draft prospect. He turned down the Yankees in the 37th round in 2019, and now he's looking to take a Brent Rooker route to the first round. Jarvis came out of the gate with significantly better velocity in 2020, and after a fairly ordinary start against Army, his last three starts were the best in the amateur baseball world. From February 21st onward, Jarvis went 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA, a 0.35 WHIP, and a 37/1 strikeout to walk ratio. That's 23 innings, one earned run on seven hits, one walk, and 37 strikeouts, including a perfect game against Cornell and a near-perfect game against a strong Florida State lineup. Simply put, Jarvis pitched as well as humanly possible.
Formerly one who sat in the low 90's, Jarvis now has a fastball consistently in the mid 90's that he holds deep into starts. He throws both a slider and a curveball, which can be just a little bit inconsistent, but the slider regularly flashes plus and both should be out pitches at the next level, especially with pro refinement. He adds a changeup with serious armside fade, and when he locates it right, it's nearly impossible to square up. Combine that with improved command that is now playing above average, and you have a big time starting pitching prospect.
On the surface, it's a clear first round profile, but even after dominating college opponents in 2020, he has two small hitches in his profile. One is his age – already 22, he's the age of a college senior rather than a junior, making him a year and a half older than some other college arms like Reid Detmers, Cole Wilcox, and Slade Cecconi, and just a week shy of five years older than second to fourth round prospect Blaze Jordan. The second hitch is durability as a starter, despite the fact that he threw 75.2 innings as a sophomore (104.1 if you count the Cape Cod League) and completed seven innings in each of his final three starts in 2020. He has a pretty slight build at 6'2", and his delivery is relatively high effort, involving heavy tilt-and-go action off the rubber. Still, any durability concerns need to be projected further, because the results themselves have not given any reason for concern.
If the durability questions prove to be nothing more than speculation, Jarvis could be a #2 or #3 starter at the big league level. You have to assume he'll maintain his recent uptick in stuff over more than those four starts at the start of the season, but you just can't argue with the results. That impact starter projection has moved him firmly into the first round conversation, with a good shot at going in either the late first round or the comp round. Ethan Small, who was also 22 on draft day in 2019 after an exceptional run through the SEC, might be a good draft comparison (although not a good player comp), and he went 27th overall to the Brewers.
Near no-hitter vs Florida State in 2020 (CF view)
Strong start vs Purdue in 2020 (home plate view)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/26/1997.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 0.67 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 40/2 K/BB in 27 innings
You'd be hard pressed to find someone who out-pitched Bryce Jarvis in 2020, no matter where you look. He was pretty good over his first two years at Duke (10-3, 3.29 ERA, 161/59 K/BB), but relief questions kept him from becoming an elite draft prospect. He turned down the Yankees in the 37th round in 2019, and now he's looking to take a Brent Rooker route to the first round. Jarvis came out of the gate with significantly better velocity in 2020, and after a fairly ordinary start against Army, his last three starts were the best in the amateur baseball world. From February 21st onward, Jarvis went 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA, a 0.35 WHIP, and a 37/1 strikeout to walk ratio. That's 23 innings, one earned run on seven hits, one walk, and 37 strikeouts, including a perfect game against Cornell and a near-perfect game against a strong Florida State lineup. Simply put, Jarvis pitched as well as humanly possible.
Formerly one who sat in the low 90's, Jarvis now has a fastball consistently in the mid 90's that he holds deep into starts. He throws both a slider and a curveball, which can be just a little bit inconsistent, but the slider regularly flashes plus and both should be out pitches at the next level, especially with pro refinement. He adds a changeup with serious armside fade, and when he locates it right, it's nearly impossible to square up. Combine that with improved command that is now playing above average, and you have a big time starting pitching prospect.
On the surface, it's a clear first round profile, but even after dominating college opponents in 2020, he has two small hitches in his profile. One is his age – already 22, he's the age of a college senior rather than a junior, making him a year and a half older than some other college arms like Reid Detmers, Cole Wilcox, and Slade Cecconi, and just a week shy of five years older than second to fourth round prospect Blaze Jordan. The second hitch is durability as a starter, despite the fact that he threw 75.2 innings as a sophomore (104.1 if you count the Cape Cod League) and completed seven innings in each of his final three starts in 2020. He has a pretty slight build at 6'2", and his delivery is relatively high effort, involving heavy tilt-and-go action off the rubber. Still, any durability concerns need to be projected further, because the results themselves have not given any reason for concern.
If the durability questions prove to be nothing more than speculation, Jarvis could be a #2 or #3 starter at the big league level. You have to assume he'll maintain his recent uptick in stuff over more than those four starts at the start of the season, but you just can't argue with the results. That impact starter projection has moved him firmly into the first round conversation, with a good shot at going in either the late first round or the comp round. Ethan Small, who was also 22 on draft day in 2019 after an exceptional run through the SEC, might be a good draft comparison (although not a good player comp), and he went 27th overall to the Brewers.
Near no-hitter vs Florida State in 2020 (CF view)
Strong start vs Purdue in 2020 (home plate view)
2020 Draft Profile: Slade Cecconi
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/24/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 3.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 30/7 K/BB in 21.1 innings
A potential day one draft pick coming out of Trinity Prep High School in the Orlando area in 2018, Cecconi fell due to injuries and signability and ended up at Miami, where he posted a 4.16 ERA and an 89/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings as a freshman. With a June birthday that makes him very old for his class, he's draft-eligible as a sophomore, and he put together four solid starts to come away with a 3.80 ERA and a 30/7 strikeout to walk ratio across 21.1 innings. Cecconi has always been about projection, and while he hasn't quite put it together, he could be just a few adjustments away from taking a huge leap forward.
Cecconi has an ideal pitcher's body at 6'4", and he uses it to generate explosive stuff. His fastball velocity varies, but it can be anywhere from the low 90's to the upper 90's, with the belief that pro coaching can help him stay closer to the upper end of that velocity band. His slider is his best secondary pitch, buckling knees at its best with its hard downward movement. He also throws a cutter and a changeup, though not as much as his fastball and slider, but both of those pitches have their moments and could be weapons in pro ball. He does a good job of throwing strikes, but his overall command needs significant work and he has been more hittable than perhaps his stuff dictates he should have been so far.
There's really interesting upside here. Cecconi comes with that college pedigree and while his numbers don't jump off the page, a career 4.09 ERA and 119/25 strikeout to walk ratio across 101.1 innings against Miami's ACC schedule ain't half bad for a kid who won't turn 21 until June. His stuff can be great, and it seems like he's just a tweak or two away from taking a big step forward. At the same time, he's never quite put it together, rarely having his velocity, his secondaries, and his command all working in one start. As someone who has seemed like he was ~this close~ for years now, going back to his junior year of high school, it's not the best look to seem to have been stalled for that long.
That said, the good tends to outweigh the bad here, and Cecconi has #2 starter upside. If he never quite puts it together, his fastball/slider combination could also be lethal in the bullpen, where it's easier to see him maintaining the upper end of his velocity band. That gives him a higher floor than many of the other high upside arms in this class. Right now, he's pushed himself into the first round conversation and with a little bit of helium behind his name, it seems more likely than not that he'll come off the board somewhere in the 20's. Additionally, he grades out very well on the all important "name tool," with Slade Cecconi perhaps being the best name among all day one college arms this year (with Emerson Hancock, Asa Lacy, and Cade Cavalli receiving honorable mentions).
2020 start vs Florida (home plate view)
2020 start vs Rutgers (CF view)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/24/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 3.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 30/7 K/BB in 21.1 innings
A potential day one draft pick coming out of Trinity Prep High School in the Orlando area in 2018, Cecconi fell due to injuries and signability and ended up at Miami, where he posted a 4.16 ERA and an 89/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings as a freshman. With a June birthday that makes him very old for his class, he's draft-eligible as a sophomore, and he put together four solid starts to come away with a 3.80 ERA and a 30/7 strikeout to walk ratio across 21.1 innings. Cecconi has always been about projection, and while he hasn't quite put it together, he could be just a few adjustments away from taking a huge leap forward.
Cecconi has an ideal pitcher's body at 6'4", and he uses it to generate explosive stuff. His fastball velocity varies, but it can be anywhere from the low 90's to the upper 90's, with the belief that pro coaching can help him stay closer to the upper end of that velocity band. His slider is his best secondary pitch, buckling knees at its best with its hard downward movement. He also throws a cutter and a changeup, though not as much as his fastball and slider, but both of those pitches have their moments and could be weapons in pro ball. He does a good job of throwing strikes, but his overall command needs significant work and he has been more hittable than perhaps his stuff dictates he should have been so far.
There's really interesting upside here. Cecconi comes with that college pedigree and while his numbers don't jump off the page, a career 4.09 ERA and 119/25 strikeout to walk ratio across 101.1 innings against Miami's ACC schedule ain't half bad for a kid who won't turn 21 until June. His stuff can be great, and it seems like he's just a tweak or two away from taking a big step forward. At the same time, he's never quite put it together, rarely having his velocity, his secondaries, and his command all working in one start. As someone who has seemed like he was ~this close~ for years now, going back to his junior year of high school, it's not the best look to seem to have been stalled for that long.
That said, the good tends to outweigh the bad here, and Cecconi has #2 starter upside. If he never quite puts it together, his fastball/slider combination could also be lethal in the bullpen, where it's easier to see him maintaining the upper end of his velocity band. That gives him a higher floor than many of the other high upside arms in this class. Right now, he's pushed himself into the first round conversation and with a little bit of helium behind his name, it seems more likely than not that he'll come off the board somewhere in the 20's. Additionally, he grades out very well on the all important "name tool," with Slade Cecconi perhaps being the best name among all day one college arms this year (with Emerson Hancock, Asa Lacy, and Cade Cavalli receiving honorable mentions).
2020 start vs Florida (home plate view)
2020 start vs Rutgers (CF view)
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Dillon Dingler
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/17/1998. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 5 HR, .340/.404/.760, 1 SB, 7/4 K/BB in 13 games
In this year's draft class, a "late riser" is someone who had a strong start to the season before it shut down, and that's where Dingler finds himself. He's improved every year at Ohio State, having hit just .244/.332/.369 as a freshman and .291/.392/.424 as a sophomore before exploding for a .340/.404/.760 line in his brief 2020 campaign. In turn, he's improved his prospect status from "minor league roster filler" to "backup profile" to "potential big league starter." He got hot right at the right time, too, as he went 10-21 with five home runs and just one strikeout over his final five games of the season. While Patrick Bailey remains the top college catcher in the class (I'd consider Austin Wells to be a "college hitter who might be able to catch"), Dingler has really worked his way at least into that conversation and isn't far behind Bailey on a lot of boards.
There's very little public video available for Dingler, so it's a bit harder for me to get a good read on him, but I'll do my best. Standing 6'3", his power tended to show up more in batting practice than in games, as he homered just seven times over his first 111 college games, which extended up through March 6th of this year. Then he homered five times in his final four games, including three against North Florida in his second to last game, and suddenly it looks like he'll be able to tap that power in pro ball. He has always been a tough one to strike out and maintains just a 12.7% career strikeout rate, which pairs extremely well with his newfound power stroke and which will make him a well rounded hitter at the next level. That's great, because his defense is actually his calling card. He's right up there with Bailey as one of the top defensive catchers in the college class, with no doubt that he'll stick behind the plate. His strong arm is his best attribute, but he's very good with the glove as well and will be an asset back there.
In today's game, it's rare to find catchers who can both hit and field well – JT Realmuto cost the Phillies their top pitching prospect in Sixto Sanchez, and Yasmani Grandal just signed with the White Sox for $73 million. Buster Posey and Joe Mauer both took home MVP Awards, and Yadier Molina is considered a likely Hall of Famer despite a career line of just .282/.333/.405 (which measures out to almost exactly league average production). While Dingler's bat is far from proven outside of a hot five game stretch, that might be just enough to pass the extremely low bar for catcher offense for some teams. He entered the season looking firmly like a second round pick, but that now represents his floor as he's getting looks from teams in the comp round and even a few teams in the late first round. Dingler's combination of power, contact, and defense can really only be matched by Bailey, and he's also been heavily praised for his work ethic and leadership skills. That gives a ceiling of 20-25 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and good defense, which is excellent for a catcher, though of course he comes some risk due to a shorter track record. If he does go in the first round, he'll be the first Big 10 player to do so since Illinois' Cody Sedlock went 27th overall to the Orioles in 2016, and the first position player since Indiana's Kyle Schwarber went fourth overall to the Cubs in 2014.
Single the other way (the best video I could find)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/17/1998. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 5 HR, .340/.404/.760, 1 SB, 7/4 K/BB in 13 games
In this year's draft class, a "late riser" is someone who had a strong start to the season before it shut down, and that's where Dingler finds himself. He's improved every year at Ohio State, having hit just .244/.332/.369 as a freshman and .291/.392/.424 as a sophomore before exploding for a .340/.404/.760 line in his brief 2020 campaign. In turn, he's improved his prospect status from "minor league roster filler" to "backup profile" to "potential big league starter." He got hot right at the right time, too, as he went 10-21 with five home runs and just one strikeout over his final five games of the season. While Patrick Bailey remains the top college catcher in the class (I'd consider Austin Wells to be a "college hitter who might be able to catch"), Dingler has really worked his way at least into that conversation and isn't far behind Bailey on a lot of boards.
There's very little public video available for Dingler, so it's a bit harder for me to get a good read on him, but I'll do my best. Standing 6'3", his power tended to show up more in batting practice than in games, as he homered just seven times over his first 111 college games, which extended up through March 6th of this year. Then he homered five times in his final four games, including three against North Florida in his second to last game, and suddenly it looks like he'll be able to tap that power in pro ball. He has always been a tough one to strike out and maintains just a 12.7% career strikeout rate, which pairs extremely well with his newfound power stroke and which will make him a well rounded hitter at the next level. That's great, because his defense is actually his calling card. He's right up there with Bailey as one of the top defensive catchers in the college class, with no doubt that he'll stick behind the plate. His strong arm is his best attribute, but he's very good with the glove as well and will be an asset back there.
In today's game, it's rare to find catchers who can both hit and field well – JT Realmuto cost the Phillies their top pitching prospect in Sixto Sanchez, and Yasmani Grandal just signed with the White Sox for $73 million. Buster Posey and Joe Mauer both took home MVP Awards, and Yadier Molina is considered a likely Hall of Famer despite a career line of just .282/.333/.405 (which measures out to almost exactly league average production). While Dingler's bat is far from proven outside of a hot five game stretch, that might be just enough to pass the extremely low bar for catcher offense for some teams. He entered the season looking firmly like a second round pick, but that now represents his floor as he's getting looks from teams in the comp round and even a few teams in the late first round. Dingler's combination of power, contact, and defense can really only be matched by Bailey, and he's also been heavily praised for his work ethic and leadership skills. That gives a ceiling of 20-25 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and good defense, which is excellent for a catcher, though of course he comes some risk due to a shorter track record. If he does go in the first round, he'll be the first Big 10 player to do so since Illinois' Cody Sedlock went 27th overall to the Orioles in 2016, and the first position player since Indiana's Kyle Schwarber went fourth overall to the Cubs in 2014.
Single the other way (the best video I could find)
2020 Draft Profile: Cade Cavalli
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/14/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-2, 4.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 37/5 K/BB in 23.2 IP
It's been an interesting ride for Cavalli, who remains one of the tougher arms to pin down in terms of projection. He made a lot of noise as a teenager in the Tulsa area and could have gone in the top five rounds out of Bixby High School in 2017, but he made it to campus in Norman and actually played both ways as a freshman and as a sophomore. After hitting six home runs as a freshman, his sophomore season saw him slash .319/.393/.611 with four home runs, but it has always been his arm that has intrigued scouts the most. On the mound, he posted a 3.28 ERA against Oklahoma's tough Big 12 schedule, but his 59/35 strikeout to walk ratio in 60.1 innings showed a lot of room for growth. Facing a tough non-conference slate to start 2020, he's put up a 4.18 ERA, but he's pitched better than the ERA says with a 37/5 strikeout to walk ratio and four of his eleven earned runs coming in the second inning of his start against San Diego State.
Watching him throw a bullpen, Cavalli easily looks like a top-15 pick. His fastball sits in the mid 90's while his power slider dives across the plate and his more downer curveball gives hitters a different look. Additionally, he's shown the makings of a good changeup, giving him a full arsenal with which to attack hitters. Everything comes from a very clean, easy delivery, and at 6'4", he looks like a starting pitcher. He was finally beginning to put it together in 2020, as evidenced by striking out eleven and walking none over five innings of work against a stacked Arkansas lineup on February 28th (though he did give up three runs on six hits). The biggest difference between 2019 and 2020 has been Cavalli's control, as his walk rate dropped from 13.1% to 5.2%. However, his control (ability to throw strikes) remains well ahead of his command (ability to hit spots).
As a sophomore, Cavalli tended to get hit harder than his stuff should indicate because he was often behind in the count. Meanwhile, in a small sample as a junior, he was generally tougher to hit but still got himself into trouble when he left pitches over the plate. That's a step in the right direction, but there is still work to be done. His fastball is relatively straight and in part due to his clean arm action, there's not much deception, so hitters have less trouble squaring up his 94-96. Going forward, he'll need to find a better way to keep hitters off balance, be that adding some deception to his delivery, employing more two seam or cut fastballs, or getting better about using his full array of secondary pitches to set his fastball up more effectively. Of course, improving his in-zone command would be very helpful as well. Additionally, despite his clean, easy delivery and athletic frame, he has a troubling injury history that dates back to his high school days, though there are no major injuries on the books. As one of the oldest players with first round aspirations (he turns 22 in August), he conceivably has less time to waste on the injured list if he wants to stay on track with his development.
Cavalli's complicated profile has given scouts pause for a while now, but he may have pitched just well enough in 2020 to make the risk easier to swallow. He checks most of the boxes you want to see (velocity, secondaries, frame, delivery), and his control is trending towards allowing another box to be checked. Meanwhile, the question marks still sit next to his name in the command, durability, and performance boxes, but all three were trending in the right direction in 2020. That has pushed his name firmly into the first round conversation, and there is a lot of chatter that he could go closer to the middle of the round than the back. The ceiling here is obviously that of a frontline starter, but with considerable risk. But hey, you're drafting him for how he'll pitch in the future, not for how he's pitched in the past.
2020 game footage vs Arkansas (home plate view)
2020 game footage (CF view)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/14/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-2, 4.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 37/5 K/BB in 23.2 IP
It's been an interesting ride for Cavalli, who remains one of the tougher arms to pin down in terms of projection. He made a lot of noise as a teenager in the Tulsa area and could have gone in the top five rounds out of Bixby High School in 2017, but he made it to campus in Norman and actually played both ways as a freshman and as a sophomore. After hitting six home runs as a freshman, his sophomore season saw him slash .319/.393/.611 with four home runs, but it has always been his arm that has intrigued scouts the most. On the mound, he posted a 3.28 ERA against Oklahoma's tough Big 12 schedule, but his 59/35 strikeout to walk ratio in 60.1 innings showed a lot of room for growth. Facing a tough non-conference slate to start 2020, he's put up a 4.18 ERA, but he's pitched better than the ERA says with a 37/5 strikeout to walk ratio and four of his eleven earned runs coming in the second inning of his start against San Diego State.
Watching him throw a bullpen, Cavalli easily looks like a top-15 pick. His fastball sits in the mid 90's while his power slider dives across the plate and his more downer curveball gives hitters a different look. Additionally, he's shown the makings of a good changeup, giving him a full arsenal with which to attack hitters. Everything comes from a very clean, easy delivery, and at 6'4", he looks like a starting pitcher. He was finally beginning to put it together in 2020, as evidenced by striking out eleven and walking none over five innings of work against a stacked Arkansas lineup on February 28th (though he did give up three runs on six hits). The biggest difference between 2019 and 2020 has been Cavalli's control, as his walk rate dropped from 13.1% to 5.2%. However, his control (ability to throw strikes) remains well ahead of his command (ability to hit spots).
As a sophomore, Cavalli tended to get hit harder than his stuff should indicate because he was often behind in the count. Meanwhile, in a small sample as a junior, he was generally tougher to hit but still got himself into trouble when he left pitches over the plate. That's a step in the right direction, but there is still work to be done. His fastball is relatively straight and in part due to his clean arm action, there's not much deception, so hitters have less trouble squaring up his 94-96. Going forward, he'll need to find a better way to keep hitters off balance, be that adding some deception to his delivery, employing more two seam or cut fastballs, or getting better about using his full array of secondary pitches to set his fastball up more effectively. Of course, improving his in-zone command would be very helpful as well. Additionally, despite his clean, easy delivery and athletic frame, he has a troubling injury history that dates back to his high school days, though there are no major injuries on the books. As one of the oldest players with first round aspirations (he turns 22 in August), he conceivably has less time to waste on the injured list if he wants to stay on track with his development.
Cavalli's complicated profile has given scouts pause for a while now, but he may have pitched just well enough in 2020 to make the risk easier to swallow. He checks most of the boxes you want to see (velocity, secondaries, frame, delivery), and his control is trending towards allowing another box to be checked. Meanwhile, the question marks still sit next to his name in the command, durability, and performance boxes, but all three were trending in the right direction in 2020. That has pushed his name firmly into the first round conversation, and there is a lot of chatter that he could go closer to the middle of the round than the back. The ceiling here is obviously that of a frontline starter, but with considerable risk. But hey, you're drafting him for how he'll pitch in the future, not for how he's pitched in the past.
2020 game footage vs Arkansas (home plate view)
2020 game footage (CF view)
Monday, April 20, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Nick Loftin
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/25/1998. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .298/.339/.544, 0 SB, 11/4 K/BB in 14 games
I've always liked Loftin as a prospect, and some minor helium means that others are starting to like him too. Always a steady hitter, he hit .306/.370/.441 as a freshman at Baylor before improving to .331/.391/.517 as a sophomore, striking out a grand total of just 37 times over 108 games those two seasons (just a 7.1% rate). His junior 2020 season was looking a bit different through 14 games, with his .298/.339/.544 slash line a bit higher on the slugging end and his eleven strikeouts a bit higher than typical (a 17.7% rate). The new Loftin has been hitting for a bit more power, and he showed that on February 29th when he blasted a ball over the train tracks at Minute Maid Park off of LSU Saturday starter and 2021 draft prospect Landon Marceaux.
Loftin has an exceptional feel for hitting, having consistently barreled up pitchers from across the Big 12 since he stepped onto campus in Waco. Those minuscule strikeout rates are evidence of that, and he also struck out just twice in nine games in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer (5.3% rate). Even before his 2020 power spree, Loftin was never just a slap hitter, as his ability to find the barrel consistently has meant plenty of doubles and even a few triples. This year, he's been more willing to turn on pitches and drive them in the air, which has helped showcase his ambush power but which has also led to that elevated strikeout rate.
Of course, this new Loftin has only shown up in a short, 14 game sample, and most in the industry (plus myself) agree that this has done more good for his stock than bad. While nobody every mistook Loftin for a slap hitter, his brief power spree has shown that there can be some serious impact in the bat when he wants it. Moving up through the minors will mean a lot of learning how to best deploy that power in a disciplined manner, and I definitely see that as more of an opportunity for further growth than as something holding him back. Additionally, he's a steady defender at shortstop who will be able to stick there, making him one of the most well-rounded players in this class.
He's an example of a player whose floor and ceiling are relatively close together. Loftin should be at least a utility infielder, and his upside puts him around 15-20 home runs per season with high, batting average-driven on-base percentages. He won't steal a ton of bags or draw a ton of walks, the latter of which is mostly just because he makes such easy contact and doesn't get into deep counts. He's been creeping up draft boards and could find himself in the back of the first round, and regardless it's hard to see him falling too far into the second with his combination of floor and upside.
2020 game action
Loftin's 2020 power spree
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/25/1998. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .298/.339/.544, 0 SB, 11/4 K/BB in 14 games
I've always liked Loftin as a prospect, and some minor helium means that others are starting to like him too. Always a steady hitter, he hit .306/.370/.441 as a freshman at Baylor before improving to .331/.391/.517 as a sophomore, striking out a grand total of just 37 times over 108 games those two seasons (just a 7.1% rate). His junior 2020 season was looking a bit different through 14 games, with his .298/.339/.544 slash line a bit higher on the slugging end and his eleven strikeouts a bit higher than typical (a 17.7% rate). The new Loftin has been hitting for a bit more power, and he showed that on February 29th when he blasted a ball over the train tracks at Minute Maid Park off of LSU Saturday starter and 2021 draft prospect Landon Marceaux.
Loftin has an exceptional feel for hitting, having consistently barreled up pitchers from across the Big 12 since he stepped onto campus in Waco. Those minuscule strikeout rates are evidence of that, and he also struck out just twice in nine games in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer (5.3% rate). Even before his 2020 power spree, Loftin was never just a slap hitter, as his ability to find the barrel consistently has meant plenty of doubles and even a few triples. This year, he's been more willing to turn on pitches and drive them in the air, which has helped showcase his ambush power but which has also led to that elevated strikeout rate.
Of course, this new Loftin has only shown up in a short, 14 game sample, and most in the industry (plus myself) agree that this has done more good for his stock than bad. While nobody every mistook Loftin for a slap hitter, his brief power spree has shown that there can be some serious impact in the bat when he wants it. Moving up through the minors will mean a lot of learning how to best deploy that power in a disciplined manner, and I definitely see that as more of an opportunity for further growth than as something holding him back. Additionally, he's a steady defender at shortstop who will be able to stick there, making him one of the most well-rounded players in this class.
He's an example of a player whose floor and ceiling are relatively close together. Loftin should be at least a utility infielder, and his upside puts him around 15-20 home runs per season with high, batting average-driven on-base percentages. He won't steal a ton of bags or draw a ton of walks, the latter of which is mostly just because he makes such easy contact and doesn't get into deep counts. He's been creeping up draft boards and could find himself in the back of the first round, and regardless it's hard to see him falling too far into the second with his combination of floor and upside.
2020 game action
Loftin's 2020 power spree
Sunday, April 19, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Carson Montgomery
RHP Carson Montgomery, Windermere HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/13/2002. Commitment: Florida State
Montgomery is an interesting one. The 6'2" right hander has been a known quantity for a while, combining projection, now ability, and youth for a very favorable long term outlook. Florida tends to be very strong on high school pitching and 2020 is no different, with Montgomery leading a particularly deep group of Sunshine State arms. He's fairly raw a a prospect, but the upside is considerable and places him firmly in that second tier of high school arms.
Montgomery has a very loose operation, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and not looking particularly strained while doing so. The pitch has good riding life up in the zone, and while he doesn't have that uber-projectable, Mick Abel-type of body, there is some moderate projection there and his loose right arm bodes well for velocity gains. He also flashes a plus, downer slider with late, sharp break, though the pitch is relatively inconsistent and needs a little refinement in pro ball. He has a changeup that he doesn't use much, but that is the case for many high school arms and the pitch could develop in any number of directions.
One major drawback in Montgomery's profile, and it's one that has dented his stuck just a bit, is his command. He's not wild, but he can lose his release point at times and that causes his command to fall below average at times. His command is therefore behind that of the other high school arms in the aforementioned "second tier," so you have to project on his number of other starter traits to make him a big league starter. His age works heavily in his favor, as his August birthday makes him one of the youngest players available, and it gives him that much more time to develop.
As for draft position, Montgomery might have slipped just a bit due to his command questions, and that probably puts him somewhere in the comp round/early second round range if he's signable. Of course, with a Florida State commitment in hand, he will likely have a high asking price, which could push him further even if he does sign. On talent alone though, he fits in that comp round or even late-first round range, with the upside of an impact starter. There is relief risk present with any high school arm, especially one with Montgomery's inconsistent command, but command aside, there is a lot about him that projects for a rotation spot. Consider him one of the bigger wild cards in this part of the draft.
Footage from the 2019 high school season, his junior year (better camera angle)
Summer footage
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/13/2002. Commitment: Florida State
Montgomery is an interesting one. The 6'2" right hander has been a known quantity for a while, combining projection, now ability, and youth for a very favorable long term outlook. Florida tends to be very strong on high school pitching and 2020 is no different, with Montgomery leading a particularly deep group of Sunshine State arms. He's fairly raw a a prospect, but the upside is considerable and places him firmly in that second tier of high school arms.
Montgomery has a very loose operation, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and not looking particularly strained while doing so. The pitch has good riding life up in the zone, and while he doesn't have that uber-projectable, Mick Abel-type of body, there is some moderate projection there and his loose right arm bodes well for velocity gains. He also flashes a plus, downer slider with late, sharp break, though the pitch is relatively inconsistent and needs a little refinement in pro ball. He has a changeup that he doesn't use much, but that is the case for many high school arms and the pitch could develop in any number of directions.
One major drawback in Montgomery's profile, and it's one that has dented his stuck just a bit, is his command. He's not wild, but he can lose his release point at times and that causes his command to fall below average at times. His command is therefore behind that of the other high school arms in the aforementioned "second tier," so you have to project on his number of other starter traits to make him a big league starter. His age works heavily in his favor, as his August birthday makes him one of the youngest players available, and it gives him that much more time to develop.
As for draft position, Montgomery might have slipped just a bit due to his command questions, and that probably puts him somewhere in the comp round/early second round range if he's signable. Of course, with a Florida State commitment in hand, he will likely have a high asking price, which could push him further even if he does sign. On talent alone though, he fits in that comp round or even late-first round range, with the upside of an impact starter. There is relief risk present with any high school arm, especially one with Montgomery's inconsistent command, but command aside, there is a lot about him that projects for a rotation spot. Consider him one of the bigger wild cards in this part of the draft.
Footage from the 2019 high school season, his junior year (better camera angle)
Summer footage
Saturday, April 18, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Jordan Walker
3B Jordan Walker, Decatur HS [GA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/22/2002. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Duke
The Atlanta area tends to be a great one for high school talent, producing thirteen top-40 picks in the last eight drafts, and that's not counting Vanderbilt star and potential 2021 first overall pick Kumar Rocker. The 2020 class isn't as deep here, as Jordan Walker is the only Atlanta-area native, high school or college, with more than an outside chance at going in the top fifty picks. He's certainly a good one to represent the ATL though, drawing comparisons to 2019 second rounder Rece Hinds with some of the best raw power in the high school class.
Walker stands 6'5" and generates plus raw power from the right side, and he doesn't need to sell out to get to it. He's also trending in the right direction with his hit tool, as he employs a disciplined, rational approach at the plate that you don't always see in high school sluggers. However, because he's still growing into his body, there is still some swing and miss in his game that you won't see in those true-first round high school bats above him. That puts considerable risk into his profile, though again, the he has been making progress with that part of his game and he was off to a strong start to the spring before the season shut down. Defensively, Walker's strong arm gives him a chance to stick at third base, but he'll need to continue to work there and there's a good chance he has to move to first base.
The prospect of getting a right-right first baseman with hit tool questions rightfully scares a lot of teams in the first round. That said, he's relatively young for the class with a May birthday, and because he's still growing into his body, there is tremendous room for growth in his game as well. A good student set to attend Duke, he's known to have a high baseball IQ and more and more evaluators are confident he'll put it all together. If he's signable, that puts him somewhere in the late first round or comp round. The upside here is a 30-40 home run hitter with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages (see why he's ranked next to Aaron Sabato with the exact same offensive ceiling?), with considerable bust risk present in most high schoolers. He might fit better with a team with multiple early picks due to the boom/bust profile in addition to his likely high price tag.
Batting practice and game action from last June
Game footage from July
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/22/2002. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Duke
The Atlanta area tends to be a great one for high school talent, producing thirteen top-40 picks in the last eight drafts, and that's not counting Vanderbilt star and potential 2021 first overall pick Kumar Rocker. The 2020 class isn't as deep here, as Jordan Walker is the only Atlanta-area native, high school or college, with more than an outside chance at going in the top fifty picks. He's certainly a good one to represent the ATL though, drawing comparisons to 2019 second rounder Rece Hinds with some of the best raw power in the high school class.
Walker stands 6'5" and generates plus raw power from the right side, and he doesn't need to sell out to get to it. He's also trending in the right direction with his hit tool, as he employs a disciplined, rational approach at the plate that you don't always see in high school sluggers. However, because he's still growing into his body, there is still some swing and miss in his game that you won't see in those true-first round high school bats above him. That puts considerable risk into his profile, though again, the he has been making progress with that part of his game and he was off to a strong start to the spring before the season shut down. Defensively, Walker's strong arm gives him a chance to stick at third base, but he'll need to continue to work there and there's a good chance he has to move to first base.
The prospect of getting a right-right first baseman with hit tool questions rightfully scares a lot of teams in the first round. That said, he's relatively young for the class with a May birthday, and because he's still growing into his body, there is tremendous room for growth in his game as well. A good student set to attend Duke, he's known to have a high baseball IQ and more and more evaluators are confident he'll put it all together. If he's signable, that puts him somewhere in the late first round or comp round. The upside here is a 30-40 home run hitter with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages (see why he's ranked next to Aaron Sabato with the exact same offensive ceiling?), with considerable bust risk present in most high schoolers. He might fit better with a team with multiple early picks due to the boom/bust profile in addition to his likely high price tag.
Batting practice and game action from last June
Game footage from July
Friday, April 17, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Aaron Sabato
1B Aaron Sabato, North Carolina
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/4/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 7 HR, .292/.478/.708, 0 SB, 16/22 K/BB in 19 games
Sabato wasn't a big prospect coming out of the Brunswick School in Greenwich, Connecticut, but got to work changing that the second he stepped foot in Chapel Hill. Earning a full time starting role right out of the gate, Sabato slashed .343/.453/.696 with 18 home runs in 64 games for the Tar Heels, earning the ACC Freshman of the Year Award in 2019. Pitchers were less keen on throwing to him in his draft-eligible sophomore year, and he started slowly by hitting just .188/.333/.375 with one home run and eleven strikeouts in his first nine games. However, he changed his approach and hit six home runs and drew twelve walks over his last six games to rebuild his draft stock.
Sabato is getting drafted 100% for his bat. He has tortured ACC pitching since the day he first donned the Carolina Blue, using tremendous brute strength and feel for the barrel to muscle baseball after baseball into the seats (25 in 83 games total). He gets to that power very consistently with a simple, powerful swing, and he has shown the ability to make adjustments. With a June birthday, he was old for a sophomore and therefore draft eligible, but that in turn makes him relatively young for the college draft class with a ton of production under his belt.
The pressure is squarely on Sabato's bat to perform. Some first basemen, like potential first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, are athletic enough around the bag to provide more defensive value than they get credit for. That's not the case with Sabato, who can perform the bare minimum tasks like picking low throws and fielding grounders, but who struggles to do much else out there. You can live with that at first base, but it's not ideal. He struck out at a 20% clip as a freshman and 28% over his first nine games in 2020, but he learned to force pitchers to come to him and struck out just 10% of the time while walking 32% of the time over his final ten games. The hit tool is certainly not as robust as a guy like Torkelson's, but he has shown enough to be confident he'll be an impact hitter at the next level. He didn't play in any top leagues over the summer to further solidify that, but that's nitpicking.
Right now, the upside for Sabato is that of a 30-40 home run hitter with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages, a true middle of the order threat. There are some small concerns about how often he'll be able to tap that power given his strikeout numbers and right/right profile, but he showed in 2020 that he could make adjustments and I doubt he'll have any trouble hitting at the next level. Even when they come with small concerns, proven college bats tend to do well on draft day – just ask Michael Toglia or Seth Beer. If you can hit, they'll find a place for you. Conventionally, you'd expect a guy like Sabato to go somewhere in the comp round, but he has a chance to crack the back of the first round due to his track record in a class where a lot of guys were not seen much.
2020 game footage, including a double off likely first rounder Max Meyer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/4/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 7 HR, .292/.478/.708, 0 SB, 16/22 K/BB in 19 games
Sabato wasn't a big prospect coming out of the Brunswick School in Greenwich, Connecticut, but got to work changing that the second he stepped foot in Chapel Hill. Earning a full time starting role right out of the gate, Sabato slashed .343/.453/.696 with 18 home runs in 64 games for the Tar Heels, earning the ACC Freshman of the Year Award in 2019. Pitchers were less keen on throwing to him in his draft-eligible sophomore year, and he started slowly by hitting just .188/.333/.375 with one home run and eleven strikeouts in his first nine games. However, he changed his approach and hit six home runs and drew twelve walks over his last six games to rebuild his draft stock.
Sabato is getting drafted 100% for his bat. He has tortured ACC pitching since the day he first donned the Carolina Blue, using tremendous brute strength and feel for the barrel to muscle baseball after baseball into the seats (25 in 83 games total). He gets to that power very consistently with a simple, powerful swing, and he has shown the ability to make adjustments. With a June birthday, he was old for a sophomore and therefore draft eligible, but that in turn makes him relatively young for the college draft class with a ton of production under his belt.
The pressure is squarely on Sabato's bat to perform. Some first basemen, like potential first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, are athletic enough around the bag to provide more defensive value than they get credit for. That's not the case with Sabato, who can perform the bare minimum tasks like picking low throws and fielding grounders, but who struggles to do much else out there. You can live with that at first base, but it's not ideal. He struck out at a 20% clip as a freshman and 28% over his first nine games in 2020, but he learned to force pitchers to come to him and struck out just 10% of the time while walking 32% of the time over his final ten games. The hit tool is certainly not as robust as a guy like Torkelson's, but he has shown enough to be confident he'll be an impact hitter at the next level. He didn't play in any top leagues over the summer to further solidify that, but that's nitpicking.
Right now, the upside for Sabato is that of a 30-40 home run hitter with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages, a true middle of the order threat. There are some small concerns about how often he'll be able to tap that power given his strikeout numbers and right/right profile, but he showed in 2020 that he could make adjustments and I doubt he'll have any trouble hitting at the next level. Even when they come with small concerns, proven college bats tend to do well on draft day – just ask Michael Toglia or Seth Beer. If you can hit, they'll find a place for you. Conventionally, you'd expect a guy like Sabato to go somewhere in the comp round, but he has a chance to crack the back of the first round due to his track record in a class where a lot of guys were not seen much.
2020 game footage, including a double off likely first rounder Max Meyer
Thursday, April 16, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Daniel Cabrera
OF Daniel Cabrera, Louisiana State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/5/1998. B/T: L/L
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .345/.466/.500, 6 SB, 12/14 K/BB in 17 games
There are players with more exciting tool sets than Daniel Cabrera, but sometimes the straightforward guys get it done. Cabrera was a potential day one prospect coming out of Parkview Baptist High School in Baton Rouge in 2017, but he took his advanced bat across town to LSU and has done nothing but hit there. He made an immediate impact by hitting .315/.405/.525 with eight home runs as a freshman, then hit .284/.359/.516 with 12 home runs as he battled wrist problems as a sophomore. He was taking things to another level when the season shut down in 2020, hitting .345/.466/.500 to bring his career slash line to .305/.392/.518 with 22 home runs in 140 games. Overall, those aren't the flashiest numbers, but you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game.
Cabrera is as balanced a hitter as you'll find in this college class outside of that top tier. He employs an advanced approach at the plate, and he uses an extremely simple but powerful swing to produce average power to go along with his high on-base percentages. That swing has been his calling card all along, as it has no holes and very efficiently enables him to hit pitches in all quadrants of the zone. His approach got a bit out of wack during his sophomore year, but there's no reason to think he can't lock down the strike zone against professional pitching and he walked more than he struck out during his junior year. Defensively, he's decent but probably fits best in left field, where he'll get the job done but won't necessarily be an asset.
The biggest knock on Cabrera is his lack of upside. There's no loud tools here, just competent baseball ability. That gives him a great chance to be at least a fourth or fifth outfielder, but it also means even a best case scenario projects him with 15-25 home runs per season and high on-base percentages. That upside is considerably less remarkable than many other first round college bats, especially considering he won't add much on defense. To me, an optimist that he'll keep hitting, he seems like a guy who will fall between those two projections and end up a 15 homer bat with decent on-base percentages. That's a hitter who can start on some teams and might be a platoon hitter on others, but either way it's value. That might not fit in the first round, but it makes sense as a comp pick or as an early second rounder for a team that wants to be absolutely sure they recuperate some value out of this shorter draft.
Cape Cod League action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/5/1998. B/T: L/L
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .345/.466/.500, 6 SB, 12/14 K/BB in 17 games
There are players with more exciting tool sets than Daniel Cabrera, but sometimes the straightforward guys get it done. Cabrera was a potential day one prospect coming out of Parkview Baptist High School in Baton Rouge in 2017, but he took his advanced bat across town to LSU and has done nothing but hit there. He made an immediate impact by hitting .315/.405/.525 with eight home runs as a freshman, then hit .284/.359/.516 with 12 home runs as he battled wrist problems as a sophomore. He was taking things to another level when the season shut down in 2020, hitting .345/.466/.500 to bring his career slash line to .305/.392/.518 with 22 home runs in 140 games. Overall, those aren't the flashiest numbers, but you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game.
Cabrera is as balanced a hitter as you'll find in this college class outside of that top tier. He employs an advanced approach at the plate, and he uses an extremely simple but powerful swing to produce average power to go along with his high on-base percentages. That swing has been his calling card all along, as it has no holes and very efficiently enables him to hit pitches in all quadrants of the zone. His approach got a bit out of wack during his sophomore year, but there's no reason to think he can't lock down the strike zone against professional pitching and he walked more than he struck out during his junior year. Defensively, he's decent but probably fits best in left field, where he'll get the job done but won't necessarily be an asset.
The biggest knock on Cabrera is his lack of upside. There's no loud tools here, just competent baseball ability. That gives him a great chance to be at least a fourth or fifth outfielder, but it also means even a best case scenario projects him with 15-25 home runs per season and high on-base percentages. That upside is considerably less remarkable than many other first round college bats, especially considering he won't add much on defense. To me, an optimist that he'll keep hitting, he seems like a guy who will fall between those two projections and end up a 15 homer bat with decent on-base percentages. That's a hitter who can start on some teams and might be a platoon hitter on others, but either way it's value. That might not fit in the first round, but it makes sense as a comp pick or as an early second rounder for a team that wants to be absolutely sure they recuperate some value out of this shorter draft.
Cape Cod League action
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Casey Martin
SS Casey Martin, Arkansas
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/7/1999. B/T: R/R.
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .271/.386/.458, 6 SB, 22/10 K/BB in 15 games
Heston Kjerstad may be the top prospect on that very talented Arkansas program, but Casey Martin may ave even higher upside. He burst onto the scene by slashing .345/.418/.556 with 13 home runs as a freshman against top SEC competition, but the longer he's been around, the more these SEC pitchers have seemed to figure him out. He dropped to .287/.369/.556 with 15 home runs as a sophomore, and this year he was hitting .271/.386/.458 with a pair of home runs when the season shut down. His final two games of the season, and likely his Arkansas career, really told the story – against Grand Canyon, he went 0-5 with four strikeouts on March 10th, then went 3-5 with a home run and a pair of strikeouts on March 11th to close his career.
Despite standing 5'11", Martin is about as tooled up as they come. He generates a lot of raw power from a big left handed swing, and you can guarantee he won't get cheated when he's looking for a pitch to drive. He also adds in game-changing speed that he can deploy on both sides of the ball, and when combined with a strong arm, you have a defender who should be able to stick at shortstop. The reason we find Martin back here towards the end of the first round, though, is the hit tool. He struck out 64 times in 67 games as a freshman, then actually bumped that number up to 71 strikeouts in 61 games as a sophomore before striking out 22 times in 15 games as a junior. His all-out swing and the general rawness of his approach leads to lots of swings and misses, which hasn't really hampered his power production in college with 30 career home runs in 143 games, but which will be an issue at the next level. He was a bit more patient in 2020, forcing pitchers to come to him a bit more, but that didn't really help his hit tool and he still struggled when he got into deep counts.
Though he's a college hitter coming from a top SEC program, Martin has a very wide range of outcomes. A team that thinks they can iron out his hit tool and get him a bit more consistent overall could envision a potential 30-30 threat at a premium position, which is middle of the first round value or better even if his on-base percentages fall closer to .300 than to .400. However, that's a big roll of the dice, as the 5'11" Arkansan's power come from his big, uppercut swing, and you could risk some of his power if you have him tone it down too much. Still, there is enough wiry strength to project 15-20 home runs per season even with a more contact-oriented swing, and that should keep Martin in the first round picture. Overall, he's probably a stretch to crack the top 20, but he should fit somewhere towards the back of that first round or in the comp round.
US CNT batting practice and game footage
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/7/1999. B/T: R/R.
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .271/.386/.458, 6 SB, 22/10 K/BB in 15 games
Heston Kjerstad may be the top prospect on that very talented Arkansas program, but Casey Martin may ave even higher upside. He burst onto the scene by slashing .345/.418/.556 with 13 home runs as a freshman against top SEC competition, but the longer he's been around, the more these SEC pitchers have seemed to figure him out. He dropped to .287/.369/.556 with 15 home runs as a sophomore, and this year he was hitting .271/.386/.458 with a pair of home runs when the season shut down. His final two games of the season, and likely his Arkansas career, really told the story – against Grand Canyon, he went 0-5 with four strikeouts on March 10th, then went 3-5 with a home run and a pair of strikeouts on March 11th to close his career.
Despite standing 5'11", Martin is about as tooled up as they come. He generates a lot of raw power from a big left handed swing, and you can guarantee he won't get cheated when he's looking for a pitch to drive. He also adds in game-changing speed that he can deploy on both sides of the ball, and when combined with a strong arm, you have a defender who should be able to stick at shortstop. The reason we find Martin back here towards the end of the first round, though, is the hit tool. He struck out 64 times in 67 games as a freshman, then actually bumped that number up to 71 strikeouts in 61 games as a sophomore before striking out 22 times in 15 games as a junior. His all-out swing and the general rawness of his approach leads to lots of swings and misses, which hasn't really hampered his power production in college with 30 career home runs in 143 games, but which will be an issue at the next level. He was a bit more patient in 2020, forcing pitchers to come to him a bit more, but that didn't really help his hit tool and he still struggled when he got into deep counts.
Though he's a college hitter coming from a top SEC program, Martin has a very wide range of outcomes. A team that thinks they can iron out his hit tool and get him a bit more consistent overall could envision a potential 30-30 threat at a premium position, which is middle of the first round value or better even if his on-base percentages fall closer to .300 than to .400. However, that's a big roll of the dice, as the 5'11" Arkansan's power come from his big, uppercut swing, and you could risk some of his power if you have him tone it down too much. Still, there is enough wiry strength to project 15-20 home runs per season even with a more contact-oriented swing, and that should keep Martin in the first round picture. Overall, he's probably a stretch to crack the top 20, but he should fit somewhere towards the back of that first round or in the comp round.
US CNT batting practice and game footage
Monday, April 13, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Masyn Winn
SS/RHP Masyn Winn, Kingwood HS [TX]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/21/2002. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Arkansas.
Few players in this draft class are more fun to watch than Masyn Winn, and he's likely the top two-way player in the class overall. He had a bit of an up and down summer, at one point getting sent home from the PDP League showcase (presumably for bad behavior), but he exploded onto the scene with an all-around elite performance at the World Wood Bat Association showcase in the fall that could be considered as the best single performance of any prospect at any showcase this year. Though he stands just 5'11", he is an electric athlete with immense upside on both sides of the ball and he's one of my favorite prospects around, makeup questions aside.
Let's start with Winn as a pitcher. Despite his small size, his electric right arm allows him to sit in the low to mid 90's regularly and reach back for the upper 90's with his fastball. He adds a relatively inconsistent curveball, but when it's on, oh man is it tough to hit with excellent, tight break that makes it look like he's pulling a string on it. His changeup is a bit more raw, as expected, but he's shown surprising feel for it at times and that gives him the chance for three plus pitches. He throws with a bit of effort, which you might expect for a skinny 5'11" kid touching 98, but he's athletic and is still able to show average command even at this point with plenty of arm speed.
At the plate, Winn has significantly more power than you'd expect from just looking at him. His exceptionally quick hands enable the barrel to explode towards the ball with some loft, and he projects to add more as he irons out his hit tool. For now, he shows a decent amount of swing and miss, but he can get the barrel moving so quickly that some minor mechanical adjustments might enable those hands to help his hit tool play up a little bit, if that makes sense. Defensively, he is, you guessed it, raw, but he has a plus arm that will keep him on the left side of the infield and his quick-twitch athleticism gives him a good shot to stick at shortstop.
With all his upside, it's important to remember that Winn is extremely raw as a player. His offspeed pitches are both relatively inconsistent, as is his command, and he comes with significant reliever risk due to his size, build, and effort in his delivery. On the other side of the ball, he hasn't yet proven he can make consistent contact against higher level pitching, and that's a bit more tolerable when you have a projectable 6'4" kid than a skinny 5'11" kid. Then of course, there are the makeup questions, though I honestly have no idea what he did to get sent home from the event and it might be no big deal. All of this said, make no mistake of Winn's upside; it's tremendous.
Personally, I'd like to see Winn head to Arkansas and play both ways. His upside is so high on both sides of the ball, and he also carries so much risk on both sides of the ball, that three years of figuring out which one gives him the better chance could be hugely beneficial. On the other hand, ditching one or the other could help him focus on refining his game. On the mound, he has a shot to be a real impact starter, or his fastball/combination could work really well out of the bullpen. As a hitter, he could hit 20-25 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages in a kind of right handed Rougned Odor kind of way. As for draft position, he could really go anywhere from the comp round to the second round if he's signable, but he could be expensive to pry away from that commitment.
Pitching at the WWBA
Batting and fielding at the PG National over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/21/2002. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Arkansas.
Few players in this draft class are more fun to watch than Masyn Winn, and he's likely the top two-way player in the class overall. He had a bit of an up and down summer, at one point getting sent home from the PDP League showcase (presumably for bad behavior), but he exploded onto the scene with an all-around elite performance at the World Wood Bat Association showcase in the fall that could be considered as the best single performance of any prospect at any showcase this year. Though he stands just 5'11", he is an electric athlete with immense upside on both sides of the ball and he's one of my favorite prospects around, makeup questions aside.
Let's start with Winn as a pitcher. Despite his small size, his electric right arm allows him to sit in the low to mid 90's regularly and reach back for the upper 90's with his fastball. He adds a relatively inconsistent curveball, but when it's on, oh man is it tough to hit with excellent, tight break that makes it look like he's pulling a string on it. His changeup is a bit more raw, as expected, but he's shown surprising feel for it at times and that gives him the chance for three plus pitches. He throws with a bit of effort, which you might expect for a skinny 5'11" kid touching 98, but he's athletic and is still able to show average command even at this point with plenty of arm speed.
At the plate, Winn has significantly more power than you'd expect from just looking at him. His exceptionally quick hands enable the barrel to explode towards the ball with some loft, and he projects to add more as he irons out his hit tool. For now, he shows a decent amount of swing and miss, but he can get the barrel moving so quickly that some minor mechanical adjustments might enable those hands to help his hit tool play up a little bit, if that makes sense. Defensively, he is, you guessed it, raw, but he has a plus arm that will keep him on the left side of the infield and his quick-twitch athleticism gives him a good shot to stick at shortstop.
With all his upside, it's important to remember that Winn is extremely raw as a player. His offspeed pitches are both relatively inconsistent, as is his command, and he comes with significant reliever risk due to his size, build, and effort in his delivery. On the other side of the ball, he hasn't yet proven he can make consistent contact against higher level pitching, and that's a bit more tolerable when you have a projectable 6'4" kid than a skinny 5'11" kid. Then of course, there are the makeup questions, though I honestly have no idea what he did to get sent home from the event and it might be no big deal. All of this said, make no mistake of Winn's upside; it's tremendous.
Personally, I'd like to see Winn head to Arkansas and play both ways. His upside is so high on both sides of the ball, and he also carries so much risk on both sides of the ball, that three years of figuring out which one gives him the better chance could be hugely beneficial. On the other hand, ditching one or the other could help him focus on refining his game. On the mound, he has a shot to be a real impact starter, or his fastball/combination could work really well out of the bullpen. As a hitter, he could hit 20-25 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages in a kind of right handed Rougned Odor kind of way. As for draft position, he could really go anywhere from the comp round to the second round if he's signable, but he could be expensive to pry away from that commitment.
Pitching at the WWBA
Batting and fielding at the PG National over the summer
Sunday, April 12, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Chris McMahon
RHP Chris McMahon, Miami
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/4/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.05 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 38/5 K/BB in 25.2 IP
McMahon was a well-known prospect and potential top three rounds pick coming out of Rustin High School in the western Philadelphia suburbs in 2017, but he elected to head south to Miami and he's gotten better and better there. After getting his feet wet as a freshman, McMahon put up a solid sophomore campaign in 2019 (3.73 ERA, 67/23 K/BB in 60.1 IP) and pitched well with the US Collegiate National Team (2.25 ERA, 15/6 K/BB in 12 IP). In 2020, he's taken everything to another level, allowing a grand total of three runs against a relatively strong early-season schedule in Rutgers, Florida, Towson, and Pittsburgh. His start against a loaded Florida lineup was particularly impressive, where he allowed one run on six hits and two walks over six innings, striking out nine Gators on just 88 pitches.
What McMahon lacks in ceiling, he makes up for in now-ability and shows a pretty clear #3/#4 starter profile. He has a lot of power in his right arm that can run his fastball up to 98, but he's perfectly happy just settling in the mid 90's with a smooth, relatively low-effort delivery. He adds an improving mid 80's slider that elicits its share of swings and misses at its best, and he throws one of the better changeups in the class with serious armside fade. In part due to his easy delivery, he fills the strike zone consistently and projects for above average command.
With the potential for three plus pitches and good command, McMahon has everything he needs to be a #3 starter. Getting there will require him becoming a bit more consistent with his breaking ball, which can straighten out at times, but otherwise there aren't many holes in his game. He was off to a fantastic start in 2020 that was pushing him up boards, and in a year with a lot of uncertainty, that's an enticing package. Because he lacks the true strikeout pitch that you see from some of the other top arms in this class, it's hard to envision him as more than a #3, but the more you watch, it's hard to envision him as anything less either.
I'm one of the higher people on McMahon, and I absolutely see his skill set fitting somewhere in the 20's. In a draft class with a lot of uncertainty, he offers a safe impact starter who can stick in the rotation for a long time. When looking at him as the "safe" option, the only thing that really holds him back is a slightly shorter track record at the top of his game when compared to, say, Tanner Burns, but he's trending up and over the last two seasons he still has a 2.93 ERA and a 105/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings.
2020 start against Florida (home plate view)
2020 start against Towson (CF view)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/4/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.05 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 38/5 K/BB in 25.2 IP
McMahon was a well-known prospect and potential top three rounds pick coming out of Rustin High School in the western Philadelphia suburbs in 2017, but he elected to head south to Miami and he's gotten better and better there. After getting his feet wet as a freshman, McMahon put up a solid sophomore campaign in 2019 (3.73 ERA, 67/23 K/BB in 60.1 IP) and pitched well with the US Collegiate National Team (2.25 ERA, 15/6 K/BB in 12 IP). In 2020, he's taken everything to another level, allowing a grand total of three runs against a relatively strong early-season schedule in Rutgers, Florida, Towson, and Pittsburgh. His start against a loaded Florida lineup was particularly impressive, where he allowed one run on six hits and two walks over six innings, striking out nine Gators on just 88 pitches.
What McMahon lacks in ceiling, he makes up for in now-ability and shows a pretty clear #3/#4 starter profile. He has a lot of power in his right arm that can run his fastball up to 98, but he's perfectly happy just settling in the mid 90's with a smooth, relatively low-effort delivery. He adds an improving mid 80's slider that elicits its share of swings and misses at its best, and he throws one of the better changeups in the class with serious armside fade. In part due to his easy delivery, he fills the strike zone consistently and projects for above average command.
With the potential for three plus pitches and good command, McMahon has everything he needs to be a #3 starter. Getting there will require him becoming a bit more consistent with his breaking ball, which can straighten out at times, but otherwise there aren't many holes in his game. He was off to a fantastic start in 2020 that was pushing him up boards, and in a year with a lot of uncertainty, that's an enticing package. Because he lacks the true strikeout pitch that you see from some of the other top arms in this class, it's hard to envision him as more than a #3, but the more you watch, it's hard to envision him as anything less either.
I'm one of the higher people on McMahon, and I absolutely see his skill set fitting somewhere in the 20's. In a draft class with a lot of uncertainty, he offers a safe impact starter who can stick in the rotation for a long time. When looking at him as the "safe" option, the only thing that really holds him back is a slightly shorter track record at the top of his game when compared to, say, Tanner Burns, but he's trending up and over the last two seasons he still has a 2.93 ERA and a 105/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings.
2020 start against Florida (home plate view)
2020 start against Towson (CF view)
2020 Draft Profile: Tyler Soderstrom
C/IF Tyler Soderstrom, Turlock HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 11/24/2001. B/T: L/R
Commitment: UCLA
Hardcore 90's Giants fans might recognize that last name if they squint, as Steve Soderstrom went sixth overall out of Fresno State in 1993 before making three starts for the 1996 team (2-0, 5.27 ERA) and flaming out. His son Tyler won't match his draft position, but he has a great chance to top his career production as the best hitting high school catcher in the country and arguably the top high school hitter west of the Mississippi. He's clearly a bat-first prospect, but if he can stick behind the plate, he could be a steal later in the first round.
Though he's a catcher, Soderstrom stands out for his bat. He shows great feel for the barrel that helped him make very consistent, very hard contact against some of the top high school pitchers in the country over the summer, and he can projects for potentially plus raw power. Soderstrom derives that power from strong arms and legs, and he can really tap it when he gets his arms extended. That offensive upside rivals just about any high school hitter outside of the top tier (Zac Veen/Austin Hendrick), and it comes with the chance to stick behind the plate. Soderstrom is very much a work in progress defensively and far from a lock to catch at the big league level, but with plenty of arm strength and a good work ethic, there is a chance. If scouts were sure he could stick back there, he would be off the board by the halfway point of the first round.
There is significant risk here. High school catchers are an exceptionally risky demographic, with more busts than successes in recent memory. Now, Soderstrom does have a bit of a leg up on a lot of those guys because he might not have to play first base if he can't catch, as he has enough arm strength and athleticism to make a corner outfield spot or even third base potentially work. If Soderstrom were strictly a left fielder or first baseman, his bat could still sneak him into the back of the first round on its own, and adding in the possibility of third base or right field pushes him more firmly into the first round. Now throw in the possibility that he can catch, and you have yourself someone who could go in the top twenty picks if a team really believes in the glove. I would think of him that way rather than as "a poor defensive catcher who will probably get bumped." Then, you can focus on the upside in the bat.
On its own, there is 25-30 home run potential in the bat as well as the ability to post high on-base percentages. He's not quite there yet, as he's still learning how to balance his approach between power and average, but that's expected for a high school senior. It will take some refinement, but the upside is certainly there and he's closer to it than a lot of other hitters. Defensively, where he fits in the draft all depends on what teams think of his defense, and that could mean anywhere from the middle to the back of the first round. It will also be interesting to see how teams balance him versus Arizona's Austin Wells, who has a similar bat-first profile as a catcher. Soderstrom, on one hand, is younger and conceptually has more time to refine his glove, but Wells' bat is much more proven (he's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona) with the same defensive profile. Personally, I prefer Wells, but I could understand an argument for Soderstrom. Either way, it's a first round profile.
Batting practice
Summer game footage
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 11/24/2001. B/T: L/R
Commitment: UCLA
Hardcore 90's Giants fans might recognize that last name if they squint, as Steve Soderstrom went sixth overall out of Fresno State in 1993 before making three starts for the 1996 team (2-0, 5.27 ERA) and flaming out. His son Tyler won't match his draft position, but he has a great chance to top his career production as the best hitting high school catcher in the country and arguably the top high school hitter west of the Mississippi. He's clearly a bat-first prospect, but if he can stick behind the plate, he could be a steal later in the first round.
Though he's a catcher, Soderstrom stands out for his bat. He shows great feel for the barrel that helped him make very consistent, very hard contact against some of the top high school pitchers in the country over the summer, and he can projects for potentially plus raw power. Soderstrom derives that power from strong arms and legs, and he can really tap it when he gets his arms extended. That offensive upside rivals just about any high school hitter outside of the top tier (Zac Veen/Austin Hendrick), and it comes with the chance to stick behind the plate. Soderstrom is very much a work in progress defensively and far from a lock to catch at the big league level, but with plenty of arm strength and a good work ethic, there is a chance. If scouts were sure he could stick back there, he would be off the board by the halfway point of the first round.
There is significant risk here. High school catchers are an exceptionally risky demographic, with more busts than successes in recent memory. Now, Soderstrom does have a bit of a leg up on a lot of those guys because he might not have to play first base if he can't catch, as he has enough arm strength and athleticism to make a corner outfield spot or even third base potentially work. If Soderstrom were strictly a left fielder or first baseman, his bat could still sneak him into the back of the first round on its own, and adding in the possibility of third base or right field pushes him more firmly into the first round. Now throw in the possibility that he can catch, and you have yourself someone who could go in the top twenty picks if a team really believes in the glove. I would think of him that way rather than as "a poor defensive catcher who will probably get bumped." Then, you can focus on the upside in the bat.
On its own, there is 25-30 home run potential in the bat as well as the ability to post high on-base percentages. He's not quite there yet, as he's still learning how to balance his approach between power and average, but that's expected for a high school senior. It will take some refinement, but the upside is certainly there and he's closer to it than a lot of other hitters. Defensively, where he fits in the draft all depends on what teams think of his defense, and that could mean anywhere from the middle to the back of the first round. It will also be interesting to see how teams balance him versus Arizona's Austin Wells, who has a similar bat-first profile as a catcher. Soderstrom, on one hand, is younger and conceptually has more time to refine his glove, but Wells' bat is much more proven (he's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona) with the same defensive profile. Personally, I prefer Wells, but I could understand an argument for Soderstrom. Either way, it's a first round profile.
Batting practice
Summer game footage
Saturday, April 11, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Alex Santos
RHP Alex Santos, Mount St. Michael HS [NY]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/10/2002. Commitment: Maryland
I don't know what it is about this kid, I just like him as a prospect. New York City has produced some great players recently, including relievers Dellin Betances (Brooklyn) and Adam Ottavino (Brooklyn) and outfielder Harrison Bader (Bronx), though they only come around every once in a while. Santos is looking to join Bader in representing the Bronx as a projectable right handed pitcher with immense upside. That upside puts him firmly in the second tier of high school pitchers, and on my draft board, he's leading it.
Santos comes in with a low 90's fastball, and his big frame and high arm angle make it a tough pitch to square up. He adds a curve, changeup, and slider, with their levels of polish falling in that order. The curve is his best secondary pitch, coming in with sharp, two plane break at its best and looking like a true plus pitch at times. The changeup isn't quite there yet, but it's improving and looks like it could be a good pitch in time. Lastly, the slider is his fourth pitch, really just a more lateral version of his curve at this point without the sharp bite.
It all comes from an athletic and extremely projectable 6'3" frame, one which should easily add plenty of weight and which could enable him to add significant velocity. His loose arm is a big plus as well, and Santos could be sitting consistently in the mid 90's a few years from now. That curve is relatively inconsistent at this point, but he can rattle off some really good ones and it's pretty easy to project it as a plus pitch. He also throws strikes and has been making progress with the rest of his arsenal, and the hope is that pro coaching can help him leap forward.
It's hard to project draft positions for high school pitchers in a normal year, and the circumstances this year certainly don't make it any easier. If he's signable away from a commitment to Maryland, which it seems like he is, he has a shot to go anywhere from the back of the first round to the early second round. Personally, I would like him at the higher end of that range if I were drafting, and I wouldn't call it an overdraft if he went somewhere in the 30-40 range. He's a higher-risk pick than many other players in the same range, but he has ace upside and that ceiling could be too much to ignore once the draft flips to the comp rounds.
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/10/2002. Commitment: Maryland
I don't know what it is about this kid, I just like him as a prospect. New York City has produced some great players recently, including relievers Dellin Betances (Brooklyn) and Adam Ottavino (Brooklyn) and outfielder Harrison Bader (Bronx), though they only come around every once in a while. Santos is looking to join Bader in representing the Bronx as a projectable right handed pitcher with immense upside. That upside puts him firmly in the second tier of high school pitchers, and on my draft board, he's leading it.
Santos comes in with a low 90's fastball, and his big frame and high arm angle make it a tough pitch to square up. He adds a curve, changeup, and slider, with their levels of polish falling in that order. The curve is his best secondary pitch, coming in with sharp, two plane break at its best and looking like a true plus pitch at times. The changeup isn't quite there yet, but it's improving and looks like it could be a good pitch in time. Lastly, the slider is his fourth pitch, really just a more lateral version of his curve at this point without the sharp bite.
It all comes from an athletic and extremely projectable 6'3" frame, one which should easily add plenty of weight and which could enable him to add significant velocity. His loose arm is a big plus as well, and Santos could be sitting consistently in the mid 90's a few years from now. That curve is relatively inconsistent at this point, but he can rattle off some really good ones and it's pretty easy to project it as a plus pitch. He also throws strikes and has been making progress with the rest of his arsenal, and the hope is that pro coaching can help him leap forward.
It's hard to project draft positions for high school pitchers in a normal year, and the circumstances this year certainly don't make it any easier. If he's signable away from a commitment to Maryland, which it seems like he is, he has a shot to go anywhere from the back of the first round to the early second round. Personally, I would like him at the higher end of that range if I were drafting, and I wouldn't call it an overdraft if he went somewhere in the 30-40 range. He's a higher-risk pick than many other players in the same range, but he has ace upside and that ceiling could be too much to ignore once the draft flips to the comp rounds.
2020 Draft Profile: Tanner Burns
RHP Tanner Burns, Auburn
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/28/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 2.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 22.1 IP
Coming out of Decatur High School in northern Alabama, Burns was one of the better prep arms available in the 2017 draft and could have gone as high as the comp round had he been signable. Instead, he headed down south to Auburn and has been one of the steadiest contributors in college baseball ever since. As a freshman, he put up a 3.01 ERA and a 77/37 strikeout to walk ratio across 86.2 innings, a impressive line no matter the context but exceptional for a freshman in the SEC. He followed that up with an even better sophomore season in 2019, putting up a 2.82 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 101/23 strikeout to walk ratio across 79.2 innings, and he was off to a strong start again in 2020 before the season shut down. In what was likely the final start of his college career, he struck out ten and allowed just one hit across seven scoreless innings against Chicago State. Among college arms, Burns might have the most complete, consistent track record in a very deep class, as it's not often that a kid can come in and thrive in the SEC from day one.
A shorter, stockier kid at six feet tall, Burns is more about floor than ceiling. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can hold that velocity into the late innings, though he doesn't project to add much from here. He throws both a slider and a curveball, though the two can blend into each other and the slider is definitely the better pitch. That slider is his bread and butter, with low to mid 80's velocity as well as big, hard break. The curveball, meanwhile, is about five miles per hour slower and doesn't have quite the sharp bite of his slider, and it will need significant work if he wants to keep throwing it in pro ball. If he can get a bit more consistent with those two breaking balls, perhaps learning to intentionally manipulate the two pitches into a spectrum of sorts rather than falling victim to that unintentional blend, he'll rack up plenty of strikeouts at the big league level. Burns also throws a pretty decent changeup, and there's no reason to think it can't be at least an average pitch at the next level.
Burns doesn't have pinpoint command, but he hits his spots consistently and seems like the kind of guy who could wind up with plus command down the line. He has a very strong lower half and uses that strength to drive into his pitches, allowing him to hit 96 or 97 at times and maintain that low to mid 90's velocity throughout games and throughout the season. He's not the biggest guy in the world, but he has proven durable in college and should have no trouble adjusting to a 200 inning season.
Burns comes with a bit of a limited ceiling, but the right-now product is very good and he has a high floor as a #4 or #5 innings-eating starter and the ceiling of a dependable mid-rotation guy. In a draft class where a lot of guys could fall due to a lack of a track record, Burns should benefit from a career 2.86 ERA and 210/67 strikeout to walk ratio across 188.2 innings as an SEC starter. His likely draft range is the back half of the first round, though that track record could push him closer to the middle if teams prefer his dependability over wild cards like Garrett Crochet and Carmen Mlodzinski.
Game footage from Chicago State start
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/28/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 2.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 22.1 IP
Coming out of Decatur High School in northern Alabama, Burns was one of the better prep arms available in the 2017 draft and could have gone as high as the comp round had he been signable. Instead, he headed down south to Auburn and has been one of the steadiest contributors in college baseball ever since. As a freshman, he put up a 3.01 ERA and a 77/37 strikeout to walk ratio across 86.2 innings, a impressive line no matter the context but exceptional for a freshman in the SEC. He followed that up with an even better sophomore season in 2019, putting up a 2.82 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 101/23 strikeout to walk ratio across 79.2 innings, and he was off to a strong start again in 2020 before the season shut down. In what was likely the final start of his college career, he struck out ten and allowed just one hit across seven scoreless innings against Chicago State. Among college arms, Burns might have the most complete, consistent track record in a very deep class, as it's not often that a kid can come in and thrive in the SEC from day one.
A shorter, stockier kid at six feet tall, Burns is more about floor than ceiling. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can hold that velocity into the late innings, though he doesn't project to add much from here. He throws both a slider and a curveball, though the two can blend into each other and the slider is definitely the better pitch. That slider is his bread and butter, with low to mid 80's velocity as well as big, hard break. The curveball, meanwhile, is about five miles per hour slower and doesn't have quite the sharp bite of his slider, and it will need significant work if he wants to keep throwing it in pro ball. If he can get a bit more consistent with those two breaking balls, perhaps learning to intentionally manipulate the two pitches into a spectrum of sorts rather than falling victim to that unintentional blend, he'll rack up plenty of strikeouts at the big league level. Burns also throws a pretty decent changeup, and there's no reason to think it can't be at least an average pitch at the next level.
Burns doesn't have pinpoint command, but he hits his spots consistently and seems like the kind of guy who could wind up with plus command down the line. He has a very strong lower half and uses that strength to drive into his pitches, allowing him to hit 96 or 97 at times and maintain that low to mid 90's velocity throughout games and throughout the season. He's not the biggest guy in the world, but he has proven durable in college and should have no trouble adjusting to a 200 inning season.
Burns comes with a bit of a limited ceiling, but the right-now product is very good and he has a high floor as a #4 or #5 innings-eating starter and the ceiling of a dependable mid-rotation guy. In a draft class where a lot of guys could fall due to a lack of a track record, Burns should benefit from a career 2.86 ERA and 210/67 strikeout to walk ratio across 188.2 innings as an SEC starter. His likely draft range is the back half of the first round, though that track record could push him closer to the middle if teams prefer his dependability over wild cards like Garrett Crochet and Carmen Mlodzinski.
Game footage from Chicago State start
Friday, April 10, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Carmen Mlodzinski
RHP Carmen Mlodzinski, South Carolina
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/19/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB in 25.1 IP
I want to start out by saying that I had been pronouncing his name as it is spelled since he was a well-known high schooler coming out of Hilton Head, South Carolina, and I only recently (like in the last week) found it it was actually pronounced "Muh-jinski." So needless to say, that's a bit of a shocker to me. Anyways, Mlodzinski could have gone in the top five rounds of the 2017 draft if he had been signable, but instead he headed upstate to Columbia to join the Gamecocks. His time there has been a bit of a roller coaster – as a freshman in 2018, he put up a 5.52 ERA and a 43/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings, not the flashiest numbers but reasonable enough for a freshman in the SEC. Three starts into what looked to be a promising sophomore season in 2019, he had a 5.91 ERA and an 11/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings, but he broke his foot and missed the rest of the season.
However, things changed when he got on the mound this past summer. Making up for lost time in the elite Cape Cod League, Mlodzinski put up a 1.83 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 34.1 innings, shutting down college baseball's best hitters along the way. His stuff was sharp, his command was sharp, and he put himself right in the middle of the first round conversation. This spring, though, has been a bit disappointing. His first two starts against Holy Cross (7 IP, 0 ER, 3 K) and Northwestern (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K) were strong, but he wasn't quite as good against Clemson (6 IP, 6 ER) and Cornell (5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 BB). His stuff was a bit diminished this spring, and some of the allure that surrounded him on the Cape has faded.
Over the summer, he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, a pitch that played up significantly due to his tremendous ability to sink and run it. He also added a sharp downer slider that he could morph into more of a cutter as well as a nice changeup, all of which he landed for strikes to both sides of the plate. This spring, the velocity was still there for the most part but his offspeed pitches softened up just a bit, lacking the big bite they had over the summer. His command was a bit more inconsistent as well, as evidenced by five walks in his final start of the season against a weaker Cornell lineup, and overall his stock dropped just a bit as he failed to miss bats.
All of that said, Mlodzinski still profiles well in the first round with a high floor and a pretty good ceiling. That fastball is still a weapon, with impressive running and sinking action that makes it tough to square up. With his cutter, slider, and changeup, even if they stay more in the range they've been this spring, he still has a #4 starter projection due to his ability to induce weak contact, especially on the ground. In order to outplay that #4 starter projection, he needs to do one of both of the following things: regain the feel he had for his offspeed pitches over the summer, and improve his command. The command isn't necessarily a problem, as it was well above average over the summer and still played solid-average this spring, but if he is going to get by as a pitch-to-contact, ground ball pitcher, he'll need above average to plus command in order to be a #3 starter or better.
As a safe bet, back of the rotation starter with the upside of a #2 or a #3, he fits somewhere in the back half of the first round. He has a workhorse 6'2" frame and no clear weaknesses, and that dominant summer on the Cape is still very fresh in scouts' minds, especially with the shortened spring season. If he does fall, he seems like a candidate to go back for second junior year in order to rebuild his stock, but my guess is he doesn't fall far enough for that to happen. Who knows, maybe he was just a little rusty at the outset of the season and the Mlodzinski who showed up over the summer was the real deal.
Spring footage with the flatter, but still impressive, stuff
Warmup pitches from the Cape over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/19/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB in 25.1 IP
I want to start out by saying that I had been pronouncing his name as it is spelled since he was a well-known high schooler coming out of Hilton Head, South Carolina, and I only recently (like in the last week) found it it was actually pronounced "Muh-jinski." So needless to say, that's a bit of a shocker to me. Anyways, Mlodzinski could have gone in the top five rounds of the 2017 draft if he had been signable, but instead he headed upstate to Columbia to join the Gamecocks. His time there has been a bit of a roller coaster – as a freshman in 2018, he put up a 5.52 ERA and a 43/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings, not the flashiest numbers but reasonable enough for a freshman in the SEC. Three starts into what looked to be a promising sophomore season in 2019, he had a 5.91 ERA and an 11/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings, but he broke his foot and missed the rest of the season.
However, things changed when he got on the mound this past summer. Making up for lost time in the elite Cape Cod League, Mlodzinski put up a 1.83 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 34.1 innings, shutting down college baseball's best hitters along the way. His stuff was sharp, his command was sharp, and he put himself right in the middle of the first round conversation. This spring, though, has been a bit disappointing. His first two starts against Holy Cross (7 IP, 0 ER, 3 K) and Northwestern (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K) were strong, but he wasn't quite as good against Clemson (6 IP, 6 ER) and Cornell (5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 BB). His stuff was a bit diminished this spring, and some of the allure that surrounded him on the Cape has faded.
Over the summer, he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, a pitch that played up significantly due to his tremendous ability to sink and run it. He also added a sharp downer slider that he could morph into more of a cutter as well as a nice changeup, all of which he landed for strikes to both sides of the plate. This spring, the velocity was still there for the most part but his offspeed pitches softened up just a bit, lacking the big bite they had over the summer. His command was a bit more inconsistent as well, as evidenced by five walks in his final start of the season against a weaker Cornell lineup, and overall his stock dropped just a bit as he failed to miss bats.
All of that said, Mlodzinski still profiles well in the first round with a high floor and a pretty good ceiling. That fastball is still a weapon, with impressive running and sinking action that makes it tough to square up. With his cutter, slider, and changeup, even if they stay more in the range they've been this spring, he still has a #4 starter projection due to his ability to induce weak contact, especially on the ground. In order to outplay that #4 starter projection, he needs to do one of both of the following things: regain the feel he had for his offspeed pitches over the summer, and improve his command. The command isn't necessarily a problem, as it was well above average over the summer and still played solid-average this spring, but if he is going to get by as a pitch-to-contact, ground ball pitcher, he'll need above average to plus command in order to be a #3 starter or better.
As a safe bet, back of the rotation starter with the upside of a #2 or a #3, he fits somewhere in the back half of the first round. He has a workhorse 6'2" frame and no clear weaknesses, and that dominant summer on the Cape is still very fresh in scouts' minds, especially with the shortened spring season. If he does fall, he seems like a candidate to go back for second junior year in order to rebuild his stock, but my guess is he doesn't fall far enough for that to happen. Who knows, maybe he was just a little rusty at the outset of the season and the Mlodzinski who showed up over the summer was the real deal.
Spring footage with the flatter, but still impressive, stuff
Warmup pitches from the Cape over the summer
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: JT Ginn
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/20/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-0, 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 4/2 K/BB in 3 IP
Ginn lasted just three innings into the 2020 season before going down with Tommy John surgery, but he remains one of the top arms in a loaded class with nobody else playing anyways. A top prospect coming out of Brandon High School in the Jackson, Mississippi suburbs, Ginn went 30th overall to the Dodgers in 2018 but ended up in Starkville after the two could not come to an agreement on a contract. The Dodgers were buying the upside in his powerful right arm, though at the time, he had significant reliever risk. He dramatically elevated his profile with a fantastic freshman 2019, putting up a 3.36 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 103/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings against Mississippi State's tough schedule.
In high school, Ginn was a power arm with a big fastball and a good but inconsistent slider. That, plus some effort in his delivery, caused many to peg him as a reliever. However, a year at Mississippi State did absolute wonders for him. He still has that same big fastball, sitting in the low to mid 90's deep into his starts with the ability to reach back for the upper 90's. That slider has gotten more consistent and is a plus pitch more often than not, coming in with both velocity and late, downward bite that makes it very tough to square up. His changeup is also significantly improved, rounding out his arsenal with an exclamation point. His delivery is also better, and he's throwing with significantly less effort than he was a year ago. That has helped his command improve from fringe-average to safely above, making him a truly complete pitcher.
Ginn was hurdling towards the top ten picks before he got hurt, but his trajectory was so strongly upward that he still fits firmly in the first round despite the surgery. Especially now that the college season was cancelled and the pro season is in jeopardy, his Tommy John surgery may alter his development barely any more than the lost season does for other players. He projects as a #2 starter at the major league level with a very good chance of cracking a rotation either way, and if you can't tell, he's one of my favorite arms in this class. I'll admit that I wasn't his biggest fan in high school, but he's a different pitcher now and I was wrong. As a draft-eligible sophomore (his May birthday is more appropriate for a college junior), he has a lot of leverage, which he may be inclined to use if enough teams are scared off by his surgery. With three potential plus pitches, improving command, and a clean delivery, he's one of the most complete pitchers in a class brimming with pitching, and he's going to be very, very good.
Carving up Florida hitters in 2019
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/20/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-0, 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 4/2 K/BB in 3 IP
Ginn lasted just three innings into the 2020 season before going down with Tommy John surgery, but he remains one of the top arms in a loaded class with nobody else playing anyways. A top prospect coming out of Brandon High School in the Jackson, Mississippi suburbs, Ginn went 30th overall to the Dodgers in 2018 but ended up in Starkville after the two could not come to an agreement on a contract. The Dodgers were buying the upside in his powerful right arm, though at the time, he had significant reliever risk. He dramatically elevated his profile with a fantastic freshman 2019, putting up a 3.36 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 103/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings against Mississippi State's tough schedule.
In high school, Ginn was a power arm with a big fastball and a good but inconsistent slider. That, plus some effort in his delivery, caused many to peg him as a reliever. However, a year at Mississippi State did absolute wonders for him. He still has that same big fastball, sitting in the low to mid 90's deep into his starts with the ability to reach back for the upper 90's. That slider has gotten more consistent and is a plus pitch more often than not, coming in with both velocity and late, downward bite that makes it very tough to square up. His changeup is also significantly improved, rounding out his arsenal with an exclamation point. His delivery is also better, and he's throwing with significantly less effort than he was a year ago. That has helped his command improve from fringe-average to safely above, making him a truly complete pitcher.
Ginn was hurdling towards the top ten picks before he got hurt, but his trajectory was so strongly upward that he still fits firmly in the first round despite the surgery. Especially now that the college season was cancelled and the pro season is in jeopardy, his Tommy John surgery may alter his development barely any more than the lost season does for other players. He projects as a #2 starter at the major league level with a very good chance of cracking a rotation either way, and if you can't tell, he's one of my favorite arms in this class. I'll admit that I wasn't his biggest fan in high school, but he's a different pitcher now and I was wrong. As a draft-eligible sophomore (his May birthday is more appropriate for a college junior), he has a lot of leverage, which he may be inclined to use if enough teams are scared off by his surgery. With three potential plus pitches, improving command, and a clean delivery, he's one of the most complete pitchers in a class brimming with pitching, and he's going to be very, very good.
Carving up Florida hitters in 2019
Monday, April 6, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Austin Wells
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/12/1999. B/T: L/R
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .375/.527/.589, 1 SB, 14/17 K/BB in 15 games
Man, can this dude hit. He exploded onto the scene as a freshman at Arizona by slashing .353/.462/.552 with five home runs and more walks (46) than strikeouts (43) last year, then was off to a strong start in his draft-eligible sophomore season with a .375/.527/.589 line and a pair of home runs through 15 games, bringing his career line to .357/.476/.560 across 71 games. That 2020 performance saw him get on base at least twice in 13/15 games, beginning with a massive opening day where he went 3-4 with two doubles and a home run against Albany. Wells also raked in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, slashing .295/.377/.491 with seven home runs and a 51/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games against the top pitchers in amateur baseball. All of that hitting as one of the younger draft-eligible college players in this year's draft will almost make you overlook the fact that his defense raises quite a few questions.
There aren't many weak spots in Wells' offensive game. He's a patient hitter who draws his share of walks even at a young age, he makes consistent hard contact against all kinds of high quality pitching, and he packs lots of raw power into at 6'2", 220 pound frame. Employing a fairly simple swing, his sheer strength helps him really drive the ball to all fields without really selling out for that power, and that enabled the power to really play up with wood bats on the Cape. There is virtually no question that power will continue to play up in pro ball, where he could move quickly through the minors. There is just a little bit of swing and miss in his game, but that is normal for a power hitter and the hit tool is a much safer bet than some of the other power college bats like Heston Kjerstad, Aaron Sabato, Casey Martin, and Jordan Westburg. The reason he ranks so low, however, is because of the defense.
Wells is listed as a catcher and does have a chance to stick there, but it is far from a certainty. He needs work in virtually all areas of his game, and it could be a bit of a project. As a well below average runner who really isn't all that athletic, he doesn't project well in the outfield and even his work at first base needs to be cleaned up. The fact that he hasn't shown much competence at other positions almost makes it easier to keep him as a catcher, but that will take time to develop and the bat is so advanced already and so potent that teams just might not want to wait around for that part of his game to develop (see Carlos Delgado, Kyle Schwarber, or even Bryce Harper). He reportedly worked hard on his defense over the winter, and it's very possible that he is a better defender now than he was six months ago or a year ago, but he didn't show enough in his very small sample this spring to move the needle much.
If Wells does get things figured out behind the plate, he'll be a steal even in the first round. That bat could be good for 25-35 home runs on an annual basis with very good on-base percentages, and even if he hit the lower end of that range as a catcher, he'd be one of the best in a game that lacks standouts at the position. As a first baseman, though, those numbers still play very well, and it's really hard to see him falling out of the first round even if his glove was made of concrete. Outside of that top tier of college hitters (Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, and Nick Gonzales), there is no safer bet to be an impact hitter in this class. If you can hit, they'll find a spot for you, and Wells could push his way up boards even without the glove and find himself right in the middle of the first round.
Cape Cod League game action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/12/1999. B/T: L/R
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .375/.527/.589, 1 SB, 14/17 K/BB in 15 games
Man, can this dude hit. He exploded onto the scene as a freshman at Arizona by slashing .353/.462/.552 with five home runs and more walks (46) than strikeouts (43) last year, then was off to a strong start in his draft-eligible sophomore season with a .375/.527/.589 line and a pair of home runs through 15 games, bringing his career line to .357/.476/.560 across 71 games. That 2020 performance saw him get on base at least twice in 13/15 games, beginning with a massive opening day where he went 3-4 with two doubles and a home run against Albany. Wells also raked in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, slashing .295/.377/.491 with seven home runs and a 51/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games against the top pitchers in amateur baseball. All of that hitting as one of the younger draft-eligible college players in this year's draft will almost make you overlook the fact that his defense raises quite a few questions.
There aren't many weak spots in Wells' offensive game. He's a patient hitter who draws his share of walks even at a young age, he makes consistent hard contact against all kinds of high quality pitching, and he packs lots of raw power into at 6'2", 220 pound frame. Employing a fairly simple swing, his sheer strength helps him really drive the ball to all fields without really selling out for that power, and that enabled the power to really play up with wood bats on the Cape. There is virtually no question that power will continue to play up in pro ball, where he could move quickly through the minors. There is just a little bit of swing and miss in his game, but that is normal for a power hitter and the hit tool is a much safer bet than some of the other power college bats like Heston Kjerstad, Aaron Sabato, Casey Martin, and Jordan Westburg. The reason he ranks so low, however, is because of the defense.
Wells is listed as a catcher and does have a chance to stick there, but it is far from a certainty. He needs work in virtually all areas of his game, and it could be a bit of a project. As a well below average runner who really isn't all that athletic, he doesn't project well in the outfield and even his work at first base needs to be cleaned up. The fact that he hasn't shown much competence at other positions almost makes it easier to keep him as a catcher, but that will take time to develop and the bat is so advanced already and so potent that teams just might not want to wait around for that part of his game to develop (see Carlos Delgado, Kyle Schwarber, or even Bryce Harper). He reportedly worked hard on his defense over the winter, and it's very possible that he is a better defender now than he was six months ago or a year ago, but he didn't show enough in his very small sample this spring to move the needle much.
If Wells does get things figured out behind the plate, he'll be a steal even in the first round. That bat could be good for 25-35 home runs on an annual basis with very good on-base percentages, and even if he hit the lower end of that range as a catcher, he'd be one of the best in a game that lacks standouts at the position. As a first baseman, though, those numbers still play very well, and it's really hard to see him falling out of the first round even if his glove was made of concrete. Outside of that top tier of college hitters (Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, and Nick Gonzales), there is no safer bet to be an impact hitter in this class. If you can hit, they'll find a spot for you, and Wells could push his way up boards even without the glove and find himself right in the middle of the first round.
Cape Cod League game action
Sunday, April 5, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Patrick Bailey
C Patrick Bailey, North Carolina State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/29/1999. B/T: S/R
2020 Stats: 6 HR, .296/.466/.685, 1 SB, 18/17 K/BB in 17 games
No catcher in the country has a better combination of upside with the bat and the glove than Bailey, who has hit for three years in the ACC while showing he can stick behind the plate no-doubt. After exploding for a .321/.419/.604 line and 13 home runs as a freshman in 2018, he regressed a bit to a .288/.390/.513 line and ten home runs as a sophomore, but he was off to a strong start for to his junior season with a .296/.466/.685 line and six home runs in just 17 games. As much as he's hit in college, glove is ahead of the bat, and he slashed just .231/.333/.308 in nine games with wood bats for the US Collegiate National Team over the summer. I saw him play during his big freshman season and wrote some brief notes, which you can read here.
Bailey's strength is on defense. He's a brick wall that blocks everything behind the plate and combines that with a strong arm, making him one of the better defensive catchers in the college class. Bailey also calls his own game behind the plate, an added bonus that shows his knowledge of the game. On the offensive side, Bailey is fairly balanced but might be a bit more power over hit. From the left side, he uses his strong frame to generate power from a clean, uphill swing, while his right handed swing is a bit shorter and choppier but still produces power. He's a patient hitter with a good eye at the plate, though there is a bit of swing and miss in his game and his strikeout rate rose to 24.7% in a small sample in 2020.
Overall, the bat is strong when you compare it to other catchers, but that's also considering the fact that there just aren't a lot of catchers who can swing it at a high level. It's fairly ordinary offensive profile when it's compared to the other first round college bats or even to the comp round/early second round guys, and it's his glove that has carried him to where he is. Of course, that glove takes an immense amount of pressure off his bat, and even if he doesn't hit, he has a great chance to be a backup at the big league level. In addition, with Adley Rutschman's and Joey Bart's only coming around every once in a while and usually going near the top of the draft, teams only get so many chances to get their hands on catchers with legitimate offensive and defensive ability.
The difficulty of finding catchers who can both hit and field at a high level bodes very well for Bailey's draft stock, and that pushes him right into the middle of the first round conversation. College catchers have a better track record than those at the high school level, and if it all clicks for Bailey, he could hit 25 or so home runs per year with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages and of course, great defense. Only a few current major league catchers can match that profile, so it's an extremely favorable ceiling. If the bat doesn't materialize, he fits well as a glove-first backup.
Batting practice with the US CNT
A right handed home run against Iowa this year
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/29/1999. B/T: S/R
2020 Stats: 6 HR, .296/.466/.685, 1 SB, 18/17 K/BB in 17 games
No catcher in the country has a better combination of upside with the bat and the glove than Bailey, who has hit for three years in the ACC while showing he can stick behind the plate no-doubt. After exploding for a .321/.419/.604 line and 13 home runs as a freshman in 2018, he regressed a bit to a .288/.390/.513 line and ten home runs as a sophomore, but he was off to a strong start for to his junior season with a .296/.466/.685 line and six home runs in just 17 games. As much as he's hit in college, glove is ahead of the bat, and he slashed just .231/.333/.308 in nine games with wood bats for the US Collegiate National Team over the summer. I saw him play during his big freshman season and wrote some brief notes, which you can read here.
Bailey's strength is on defense. He's a brick wall that blocks everything behind the plate and combines that with a strong arm, making him one of the better defensive catchers in the college class. Bailey also calls his own game behind the plate, an added bonus that shows his knowledge of the game. On the offensive side, Bailey is fairly balanced but might be a bit more power over hit. From the left side, he uses his strong frame to generate power from a clean, uphill swing, while his right handed swing is a bit shorter and choppier but still produces power. He's a patient hitter with a good eye at the plate, though there is a bit of swing and miss in his game and his strikeout rate rose to 24.7% in a small sample in 2020.
Overall, the bat is strong when you compare it to other catchers, but that's also considering the fact that there just aren't a lot of catchers who can swing it at a high level. It's fairly ordinary offensive profile when it's compared to the other first round college bats or even to the comp round/early second round guys, and it's his glove that has carried him to where he is. Of course, that glove takes an immense amount of pressure off his bat, and even if he doesn't hit, he has a great chance to be a backup at the big league level. In addition, with Adley Rutschman's and Joey Bart's only coming around every once in a while and usually going near the top of the draft, teams only get so many chances to get their hands on catchers with legitimate offensive and defensive ability.
The difficulty of finding catchers who can both hit and field at a high level bodes very well for Bailey's draft stock, and that pushes him right into the middle of the first round conversation. College catchers have a better track record than those at the high school level, and if it all clicks for Bailey, he could hit 25 or so home runs per year with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages and of course, great defense. Only a few current major league catchers can match that profile, so it's an extremely favorable ceiling. If the bat doesn't materialize, he fits well as a glove-first backup.
Batting practice with the US CNT
A right handed home run against Iowa this year
2020 Draft Profile: Robert Hassell
OF Robert Hassell, Independence HS [TN]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/15/2001. B/T: L/L
Commitment: Vanderbilt
Hassell, like fellow Vanderbilt outfield recruit Pete Crow-Armstrong, is one of the more famous names in this prep class. He has put on quite a few shows on the summer showcase circuit and could be the best hitter to come out of the Nashville area since Mookie Betts. Often comped to Jarred Kelenic, who is now tearing it up in the Mariners' system, Hassell isn't quite the hitter Kelenic was in high school but has a lot of similarities in his profile with a hit-over-power approach, a strong showcase track record, and an early birthday that makes him old for the class.
Hassell can hit. He produced hard contact as consistently as anybody on the showcase circuit, and there were stretches of time where you just couldn't get him out. When he's on and staying within himself as a hitter, not even the best prep pitching could find holes in his swing, and Hasssell would drop line drives from gap to gap like it was nothing. That contact ability comes from a very quick, very smooth, professional-looking left handed swing. He gets the barrel into the zone quickly and stays through the ball with great extension, enabling him to catch up to velocity and make adjustments on offspeed pitches. That gives him a great chance to post high on-base percentages in pro ball, and while Kelenic's offensive profile was slightly more robust than Hassell's, Kelenic's huge success in pro ball certainly doesn't hurt projections for a similar hitter in Hassell. Defensively, he has a solid profile that will enable him to add value in the outfield. While he's not a clear-cut center fielder like Crow-Armstrong, he's one of the better defensive outfielders in the class with good speed, developing range, and a strong arm. It will take a bit more refinement if he wants to stick there, but he profiles as above average in right field and certainly so in left field, taking a little bit of pressure off the bat.
The one question in Hassell's profile surrounds his power. He's not a small guy at a listed 6'2" and 195 pounds, but the contact he makes is much more consistently "hard" than truly "explosive." That profiles great for doubles and triples down the road, especially with his above average speed, but when your top exit velocities are in the low 90's (Austin Hendrick, meanwhile, gets well into triple digits), that first round microscope focuses in stronger. When he has tried to tap into more power, it has at times come at the expense of his prodigious hit tool, which we would rather not mess with. The hit tool is strong enough that he could happily produce on-base percentages near .400 while topping out in the teens for home runs, but as I said, that first round microscope is a strong one. With an August birthday, he's also a bit older than most of the other names in this high school class (though still two months younger than Hendrick, our elder statesman), which is a small but relevant thing.
Right now, Hassell projects pretty clearly in the first round, most likely somewhere in the front half due to his strong track record of hitting. The hit tool is certainly for real and that, plus his athletic frame, gives some hope that he can tap into some power, and the team that takes him in the top 10-15 picks will be the one that believes in that power potential. As for me, I wouldn't say more power isn't possible, but I'd peg him more as a 15 home run guy than as a 25 homer guy. Overall, with probably the best hit tool in the high school class, his outlook remains very favorable.
Summer footage
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/15/2001. B/T: L/L
Commitment: Vanderbilt
Hassell, like fellow Vanderbilt outfield recruit Pete Crow-Armstrong, is one of the more famous names in this prep class. He has put on quite a few shows on the summer showcase circuit and could be the best hitter to come out of the Nashville area since Mookie Betts. Often comped to Jarred Kelenic, who is now tearing it up in the Mariners' system, Hassell isn't quite the hitter Kelenic was in high school but has a lot of similarities in his profile with a hit-over-power approach, a strong showcase track record, and an early birthday that makes him old for the class.
Hassell can hit. He produced hard contact as consistently as anybody on the showcase circuit, and there were stretches of time where you just couldn't get him out. When he's on and staying within himself as a hitter, not even the best prep pitching could find holes in his swing, and Hasssell would drop line drives from gap to gap like it was nothing. That contact ability comes from a very quick, very smooth, professional-looking left handed swing. He gets the barrel into the zone quickly and stays through the ball with great extension, enabling him to catch up to velocity and make adjustments on offspeed pitches. That gives him a great chance to post high on-base percentages in pro ball, and while Kelenic's offensive profile was slightly more robust than Hassell's, Kelenic's huge success in pro ball certainly doesn't hurt projections for a similar hitter in Hassell. Defensively, he has a solid profile that will enable him to add value in the outfield. While he's not a clear-cut center fielder like Crow-Armstrong, he's one of the better defensive outfielders in the class with good speed, developing range, and a strong arm. It will take a bit more refinement if he wants to stick there, but he profiles as above average in right field and certainly so in left field, taking a little bit of pressure off the bat.
The one question in Hassell's profile surrounds his power. He's not a small guy at a listed 6'2" and 195 pounds, but the contact he makes is much more consistently "hard" than truly "explosive." That profiles great for doubles and triples down the road, especially with his above average speed, but when your top exit velocities are in the low 90's (Austin Hendrick, meanwhile, gets well into triple digits), that first round microscope focuses in stronger. When he has tried to tap into more power, it has at times come at the expense of his prodigious hit tool, which we would rather not mess with. The hit tool is strong enough that he could happily produce on-base percentages near .400 while topping out in the teens for home runs, but as I said, that first round microscope is a strong one. With an August birthday, he's also a bit older than most of the other names in this high school class (though still two months younger than Hendrick, our elder statesman), which is a small but relevant thing.
Right now, Hassell projects pretty clearly in the first round, most likely somewhere in the front half due to his strong track record of hitting. The hit tool is certainly for real and that, plus his athletic frame, gives some hope that he can tap into some power, and the team that takes him in the top 10-15 picks will be the one that believes in that power potential. As for me, I wouldn't say more power isn't possible, but I'd peg him more as a 15 home run guy than as a 25 homer guy. Overall, with probably the best hit tool in the high school class, his outlook remains very favorable.
Summer footage
Saturday, April 4, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Ed Howard
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS [IL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 1/28/2002. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Oklahoma
If you remember back to 2014 when Chicago's Jackie Robinson West team went to the Little League World Series, Ed Howard was the shortstop. Now, he has a commitment to Oklahoma in hand as the clear-cut top high school prospect in the Midwest, currently at the same Mount Carmel High School that produced Diamondbacks top prospect Alek Thomas two years ago. He's a really interesting prospect with a combination of upside and floor, but at the same time, he's one you really have to close your eyes and dream on because he's far from a finished product.
Howard is 6'2" with an extremely athletic frame that gives him all sorts of upside. He's a glove-first prospect that will no-doubt stick at shortstop, which buys his bat a ton of time to develop. Even if it never really does develop, the defense gives him a great floor as a utility infielder as long as he hits just a little bit. For that bat, the imagination has to come into play a little bit. He shows good bat speed from the right side and is on a positive trajectory, making consistent contact against advanced pitching despite coming from a cold weather state. There's not a ton of present power, but he hits the ball hard and some added loft could do wonders. You always like to see when an athletic kid like this is on a positive trajectory, and it seems like a lot of people around the industry have a good feeling about him.
Howard's upside could develop in a number of ways, though it seems the most likely is that of a slick fielding shortstop who could be a valuable, all-around bat. That likely projects out to home run totals in the teens with plenty of doubles, though his speed does play closer to average than you'd expect from a top defensive shortstop. The lack of present power likely drops him out of the front half of the first round, but he has a good chance to go anywhere from the middle to the back half of the round. He's committed to Oklahoma.
Summer footage
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 1/28/2002. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Oklahoma
If you remember back to 2014 when Chicago's Jackie Robinson West team went to the Little League World Series, Ed Howard was the shortstop. Now, he has a commitment to Oklahoma in hand as the clear-cut top high school prospect in the Midwest, currently at the same Mount Carmel High School that produced Diamondbacks top prospect Alek Thomas two years ago. He's a really interesting prospect with a combination of upside and floor, but at the same time, he's one you really have to close your eyes and dream on because he's far from a finished product.
Howard is 6'2" with an extremely athletic frame that gives him all sorts of upside. He's a glove-first prospect that will no-doubt stick at shortstop, which buys his bat a ton of time to develop. Even if it never really does develop, the defense gives him a great floor as a utility infielder as long as he hits just a little bit. For that bat, the imagination has to come into play a little bit. He shows good bat speed from the right side and is on a positive trajectory, making consistent contact against advanced pitching despite coming from a cold weather state. There's not a ton of present power, but he hits the ball hard and some added loft could do wonders. You always like to see when an athletic kid like this is on a positive trajectory, and it seems like a lot of people around the industry have a good feeling about him.
Howard's upside could develop in a number of ways, though it seems the most likely is that of a slick fielding shortstop who could be a valuable, all-around bat. That likely projects out to home run totals in the teens with plenty of doubles, though his speed does play closer to average than you'd expect from a top defensive shortstop. The lack of present power likely drops him out of the front half of the first round, but he has a good chance to go anywhere from the middle to the back half of the round. He's committed to Oklahoma.
Summer footage
Friday, April 3, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Pete Crow-Armstrong
CF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/25/2002. B/T: L/L
Commitment: Vanderbilt
North Hollywood's prestigious Harvard-Westlake School once touted Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in the rotation at the same time, and this year it boasted two potential day one draftees in its lineup in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Drew Bowser. Crow-Armstrong is one of the most famous names in the 2020 high school class, as he's been on scouts' radars for a long time and was an early candidate to go first overall. His star faded a bit with a so-so run through the summer showcase circuit, but he was starting to heat up again with a strong start to the 2020 season.
Crow-Armstrong has a very athletic 6'1" frame and has shown great feel for the barrel, spraying line drives all over the place against high level competition for years now. Though he doesn't hit for a ton of power at present, there is reason to believe he could get to at least average power in time. In addition to his aforementioned athletic frame and ability to find the barrel, Crow-Armstrong has a loose, fluid swing with plenty of leverage and loft, so all he really has to do is get bigger. How much he bulks up will determine that eventual power output.
Where Crow-Armstrong really shines in terms of now-ability is in the field. He's a gifted center fielder who will stick there and could eventually win Gold Gloves, with good speed, great instincts that give him plenty of range, and a strong arm. Combine that with his bat, which is very much trending back in the right direction, and you could have an all-around impact player. Even if his bat does take some time to develop, the glove certainly buys it that time. With the way he was hitting as the spring began, he has increased his chance to reach his ceiling as a 20-25 home run guy with high on-base percentages and good defense. A more realistic projection might have him more in the teens for his home run totals with more doubles and triples power, but that's still an impact player. Of course, as a high school hitter without a ton of present power, there is considerable risk here, but he's pushed himself firmly back into the middle of the first round conversation. Unless signability ends up being an issue with his Vanderbilt commitment, there's little chance Crow-Armstrong falls out of the first round.
Summer showcase footage
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/25/2002. B/T: L/L
Commitment: Vanderbilt
North Hollywood's prestigious Harvard-Westlake School once touted Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in the rotation at the same time, and this year it boasted two potential day one draftees in its lineup in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Drew Bowser. Crow-Armstrong is one of the most famous names in the 2020 high school class, as he's been on scouts' radars for a long time and was an early candidate to go first overall. His star faded a bit with a so-so run through the summer showcase circuit, but he was starting to heat up again with a strong start to the 2020 season.
Crow-Armstrong has a very athletic 6'1" frame and has shown great feel for the barrel, spraying line drives all over the place against high level competition for years now. Though he doesn't hit for a ton of power at present, there is reason to believe he could get to at least average power in time. In addition to his aforementioned athletic frame and ability to find the barrel, Crow-Armstrong has a loose, fluid swing with plenty of leverage and loft, so all he really has to do is get bigger. How much he bulks up will determine that eventual power output.
Where Crow-Armstrong really shines in terms of now-ability is in the field. He's a gifted center fielder who will stick there and could eventually win Gold Gloves, with good speed, great instincts that give him plenty of range, and a strong arm. Combine that with his bat, which is very much trending back in the right direction, and you could have an all-around impact player. Even if his bat does take some time to develop, the glove certainly buys it that time. With the way he was hitting as the spring began, he has increased his chance to reach his ceiling as a 20-25 home run guy with high on-base percentages and good defense. A more realistic projection might have him more in the teens for his home run totals with more doubles and triples power, but that's still an impact player. Of course, as a high school hitter without a ton of present power, there is considerable risk here, but he's pushed himself firmly back into the middle of the first round conversation. Unless signability ends up being an issue with his Vanderbilt commitment, there's little chance Crow-Armstrong falls out of the first round.
Summer showcase footage
2020 Draft Profile: Cole Wilcox
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/14/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.57 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 32/2 K/BB in 23 IP
Wilcox was a top prospect coming out of high school just outside Chattanooga, and he could have gone in the middle of the first round if he was signable. It turned out that he wasn't, and he ended up heading to Georgia. His freshman 2019 season with the Bulldogs was up and down, as he put up a 4.07 ERA and a 64/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, and his brief Cape Cod League stint wasn't any more consistent. In his first start, he struck out six over four shutout innings, but in his second and final start he allowed six runs while walking four over four innings. However, his sophomore 2020 season has been excellent, as he has walked just two batters while striking out 32 over 23 innings with a 1.57 ERA, and his best start of the season came against a strong Georgia Tech lineup when he struck out eleven over seven shutout innings. Unfortunately, the stoppage in play never gave him a chance to build on that.
Wilcox is a physical beast, listed at 6'5" and 232 pounds, and he looks every bit of it. His fastball comes in with consistent mid 90's heat and great movement, and he can run it up to 98 or higher when he needs to. He also has a slider in the mid 80's that fluctuates between average and plus, often showing serious late bite but occasionally shortening up a bit. At its worst, its velocity still makes it a tough pitch to square up. Lastly, he throws a very good changeup with similar mid 80's velocity and nice sinking action down in the zone, giving him three potential plus pitches. Coming from that big 6'5" frame, it's not easy squaring up against him.
The biggest question mark scouts have with Wilcox is the command. It's been shaky for most of his high school and college career, but after walking two batters in five innings in his season-opening start against Richmond, he has gone three starts spanning 18 innings without issuing a single free pass. That's certainly progress, though two of those three starts were against weak competition in Santa Clara and UMass, and scouts would have liked to have seen him maintain that progress against a tougher SEC schedule. His mechanics can waver a bit, as he struggles to keep his long arms and legs in sync at times, but he was doing a good job of repeating his delivery in 2020. So overall, put a question mark next to his command. Either way, the hope is that pro pitching can help him get more consistent with those mechanics, and in turn, his command. It does help that as a draft-eligible sophomore, he won't turn 21 until July, making him younger than most other 2020 college draftees.
Wilcox could realistically go just about anywhere in the first round outside the top ten to twelve picks. If scouts buy into the progress he made at the beginning of the season, that puts him right in the middle of the round and could push him into the low teens, but if teams opt for track record after a shortened season, he fits more towards the back of the round. He has a high ceiling as an impact starter and potential ace, but he comes with considerable risk as someone who has not consistently shown they can throw strikes. He also might be a tougher sign given how the play stoppage hurts his stock combined with the fact that if he returns to school next year, he'll still have two years of eligibility left.
2020 footage of Wilcox making hitters look really, really foolish
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/14/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.57 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 32/2 K/BB in 23 IP
Wilcox was a top prospect coming out of high school just outside Chattanooga, and he could have gone in the middle of the first round if he was signable. It turned out that he wasn't, and he ended up heading to Georgia. His freshman 2019 season with the Bulldogs was up and down, as he put up a 4.07 ERA and a 64/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, and his brief Cape Cod League stint wasn't any more consistent. In his first start, he struck out six over four shutout innings, but in his second and final start he allowed six runs while walking four over four innings. However, his sophomore 2020 season has been excellent, as he has walked just two batters while striking out 32 over 23 innings with a 1.57 ERA, and his best start of the season came against a strong Georgia Tech lineup when he struck out eleven over seven shutout innings. Unfortunately, the stoppage in play never gave him a chance to build on that.
Wilcox is a physical beast, listed at 6'5" and 232 pounds, and he looks every bit of it. His fastball comes in with consistent mid 90's heat and great movement, and he can run it up to 98 or higher when he needs to. He also has a slider in the mid 80's that fluctuates between average and plus, often showing serious late bite but occasionally shortening up a bit. At its worst, its velocity still makes it a tough pitch to square up. Lastly, he throws a very good changeup with similar mid 80's velocity and nice sinking action down in the zone, giving him three potential plus pitches. Coming from that big 6'5" frame, it's not easy squaring up against him.
The biggest question mark scouts have with Wilcox is the command. It's been shaky for most of his high school and college career, but after walking two batters in five innings in his season-opening start against Richmond, he has gone three starts spanning 18 innings without issuing a single free pass. That's certainly progress, though two of those three starts were against weak competition in Santa Clara and UMass, and scouts would have liked to have seen him maintain that progress against a tougher SEC schedule. His mechanics can waver a bit, as he struggles to keep his long arms and legs in sync at times, but he was doing a good job of repeating his delivery in 2020. So overall, put a question mark next to his command. Either way, the hope is that pro pitching can help him get more consistent with those mechanics, and in turn, his command. It does help that as a draft-eligible sophomore, he won't turn 21 until July, making him younger than most other 2020 college draftees.
Wilcox could realistically go just about anywhere in the first round outside the top ten to twelve picks. If scouts buy into the progress he made at the beginning of the season, that puts him right in the middle of the round and could push him into the low teens, but if teams opt for track record after a shortened season, he fits more towards the back of the round. He has a high ceiling as an impact starter and potential ace, but he comes with considerable risk as someone who has not consistently shown they can throw strikes. He also might be a tougher sign given how the play stoppage hurts his stock combined with the fact that if he returns to school next year, he'll still have two years of eligibility left.
2020 footage of Wilcox making hitters look really, really foolish
Wednesday, April 1, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Garrett Crochet
LHP Garrett Crochet, Tennessee
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/21/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 6/0 K/BB in 3.1 IP
On the college side, Garrett Crochet's ceiling is as high as any pitcher out there, but he comes with considerably more risk than most other potential first round arms. He has very little track record, but you can't argue with the stuff, period. More of a projection arm early in his college career, his velocity has continued to rise and in the fall, he put on an absolute show. The pure stuff was the best scouts had seen from any arm in this loaded class, and just like that he was looking at a strong shot at the top ten picks. However, he missed his first three starts of the 2020 season with minor shoulder soreness, finally returning on March 7th against Wright State. In what turned out to be his only start of the season, he threw just 42 pitches, but he made them count with 3.1 shutout innings on two hits, no walks, and six strikeouts (half the batters he faced) against a pretty strong Raiders lineup.
Crochet's stock may be bouncing all over the place, but the stuff is for real. A 6'6" lefty with understandably long arms and legs, he sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has hit 100 quite a few times, and those long arms get some really nice angle on the ball that makes it tough to square up. His slider has continued to improve with sharp, late bite, making it one of the better breaking balls in the class. He also tosses a very good changeup that elicits plenty of swings and misses, a potential plus pitch in its own right, and together it adds up to a hitter's nightmare: baseballs moving very fast in multiple directions from a difficult angle. Additionally, while his command is not on the same level as guys like Emerson Hancock, Reid Detmers, or Max Meyer, he does a pretty decent job of throwing strikes especially for such a lanky guy with such loud stuff.
The risk isn't necessarily in the actual profile, but in the track record. Nobody faults him for a 5.02 ERA as a freshman in the SEC, though as a sophomore his 4.02 ERA and 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings don't quite match up to the other top arms in this class. He also wasn't a full time starter at any point over his first two seasons, leaving those 65 innings as his career high. That's because at the time he didn't quite have the stuff to stick in an SEC rotation, and his stuff only leapt forward in the fall. Of course, with the shoulder problem and the shortened season, he never got the chance to prove it was the real deal, but his stuff was reportedly excellent in that lone 2020 start. That leaves scouts in an interesting position – he has the build and stuff to make it as an impact starter in pro ball, but that's based off of just fall practice and one great spring start. Pass on him for a guy with more of a track record, and you could miss out on an ace, a left handed Nate Pearson. But no matter how a pitcher looks in practice, you just don't know what you're getting if you haven't seen a guy start over an extended period of time.
Crochet had a chance to push himself well into the top ten picks with a big spring, especially since the only problem with his profile was the lack of a track record, but more uncertainty could put him anywhere from the edge of the top ten to more of the back of the first round. There is huge upside to tap into as a legitimate potential ace, though as I said, pitchers are weird animals and we just don't know what he'll look like 100 innings or 150 innings into a big league season. He's certainly one of the most interesting arms in the class, and it will be fun to track his progress through the minors and into the bigs.
There's not much good, recent video available, so here's the best I could find:
US CNT intrasquad footage
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/21/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 6/0 K/BB in 3.1 IP
On the college side, Garrett Crochet's ceiling is as high as any pitcher out there, but he comes with considerably more risk than most other potential first round arms. He has very little track record, but you can't argue with the stuff, period. More of a projection arm early in his college career, his velocity has continued to rise and in the fall, he put on an absolute show. The pure stuff was the best scouts had seen from any arm in this loaded class, and just like that he was looking at a strong shot at the top ten picks. However, he missed his first three starts of the 2020 season with minor shoulder soreness, finally returning on March 7th against Wright State. In what turned out to be his only start of the season, he threw just 42 pitches, but he made them count with 3.1 shutout innings on two hits, no walks, and six strikeouts (half the batters he faced) against a pretty strong Raiders lineup.
Crochet's stock may be bouncing all over the place, but the stuff is for real. A 6'6" lefty with understandably long arms and legs, he sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has hit 100 quite a few times, and those long arms get some really nice angle on the ball that makes it tough to square up. His slider has continued to improve with sharp, late bite, making it one of the better breaking balls in the class. He also tosses a very good changeup that elicits plenty of swings and misses, a potential plus pitch in its own right, and together it adds up to a hitter's nightmare: baseballs moving very fast in multiple directions from a difficult angle. Additionally, while his command is not on the same level as guys like Emerson Hancock, Reid Detmers, or Max Meyer, he does a pretty decent job of throwing strikes especially for such a lanky guy with such loud stuff.
The risk isn't necessarily in the actual profile, but in the track record. Nobody faults him for a 5.02 ERA as a freshman in the SEC, though as a sophomore his 4.02 ERA and 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings don't quite match up to the other top arms in this class. He also wasn't a full time starter at any point over his first two seasons, leaving those 65 innings as his career high. That's because at the time he didn't quite have the stuff to stick in an SEC rotation, and his stuff only leapt forward in the fall. Of course, with the shoulder problem and the shortened season, he never got the chance to prove it was the real deal, but his stuff was reportedly excellent in that lone 2020 start. That leaves scouts in an interesting position – he has the build and stuff to make it as an impact starter in pro ball, but that's based off of just fall practice and one great spring start. Pass on him for a guy with more of a track record, and you could miss out on an ace, a left handed Nate Pearson. But no matter how a pitcher looks in practice, you just don't know what you're getting if you haven't seen a guy start over an extended period of time.
Crochet had a chance to push himself well into the top ten picks with a big spring, especially since the only problem with his profile was the lack of a track record, but more uncertainty could put him anywhere from the edge of the top ten to more of the back of the first round. There is huge upside to tap into as a legitimate potential ace, though as I said, pitchers are weird animals and we just don't know what he'll look like 100 innings or 150 innings into a big league season. He's certainly one of the most interesting arms in the class, and it will be fun to track his progress through the minors and into the bigs.
There's not much good, recent video available, so here's the best I could find:
US CNT intrasquad footage
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