At this point last year, the Twins system was riding high off two breakout seasons from Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, though the two of them couldn't quite repeat this year. That's very much okay, as they're 20 and 22, respectively, and they remain arguably the top two prospects in this system. Meanwhile, a lot of other things went right, as a massive breakout from Jordan Balazovic stood at the forefront while guys like Brusdar Graterol, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Travis Blankenhorn, Cole Sands, Edwar Colina, and Bailey Ober steadily increased their stock on their own. That, combined with a great draft class headlined by the boom/bust Keoni Cavaco as well as a slew of college performers, puts the system in a really nice place right now with a lot of depth around the field. If the Twins can get Akil Baddoo, Blayne Enlow, and Wander Javier to break out next, they'd be very happy.
Affiliates: AAA Rochester Red Wings, AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos, High A Fort Myers Miracle, Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels, rookie level Elizabethton Twins, complex level GCL and DSL Twins
Catcher
- Ryan Jeffers (2020 Age: 22-23): Jeffers was a second round pick out of UNC Wilmington in 2018, and he's just hit and hit since being drafted. After slashing .344/.444/.502 in his pro debut in 2018, he slashed .264/.341/.421 with 14 home runs and an 83/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola in 2019, actually hitting better after the promotion (.287/.374/.483). Jeffers has a ton of pop in his 6'4" frame, and while there were questions as to how it would play with wood bats, he's answered them and more in pro ball. Additionally, he does a very nice job of controlling the strike zone, enabling him to hit advanced pitching consistently, and overall he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages at the major league level. His defense is coming along and he should be able to stick behind the plate, which could make him a starting-caliber catcher, though he should have just enough bat to profile at first base if he has to move there.
- Keep an eye on: Ben Rortvedt, Jeferson Morales
Corner Infield
- Jose Miranda (2020 Age: 21-22): Miranda was a second round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2016, and in 2019 he slashed .252/.302/.369 with eight home runs and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games, mostly at High A Fort Myers. Despite being relatively young for the level, Miranda showed a great hit tool that kept his strikeouts very low, using a quick right handed swing and great hand eye coordination to make consistent contact. The Twins hope that power will come, as he did hit 16 home runs in 2018, though the Florida State League can sometimes sap power and that may have been the case for Miranda in 2019. Tapping that power, which is entirely possible given his bat speed and 6'2" frame, will be the key to earning a starting role down the line, as he plays ordinary defense at both second and third base, not enough to set him apart. Whether he ends up at second or third will likely depend on the Twins' needs, and he probably has a larger chance of becoming a utility infielder anyways.
- Ryan Costello (2020 Age: 23-24): Costello was a 31st round pick out of Central Connecticut State in 2017, but he's really tapped his power in pro ball and was sent from the Mariners to the Twins in the Zach Duke deal in 2018. This year, he struggled a bit against advanced pitching, slashing .223/.343/.412 with 15 home runs and a 109/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola, and as a first baseman only, he's going to need more production. Fortunately, there were some positives from his tough season, as his patient approach netted him a lot of walks to boost his on-base percentage and he hit right handed pitching quite well. Given his above average power and his ability to hit righties, he has a really good shot at earning some spot starts at first base and DH to spell the right handed Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz down the line.
- Keep an eye on: Andrew Bechtold, Chris Williams, Seth Gray
Middle Infield
- Royce Lewis (2020 Age: 20-21): It was a bit of a tough year for Lewis, the first overall pick out of a Southern California high school in 2017, but he's still only 20 years old and it doesn't hurt his stock too much. After hitting .292/.352/.451 in his first full season in 2018, he slumped to .236/.290/.371 with 12 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 123/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola in 2019, though he did hit .400/.478/.650 with a home run in the Southern League playoffs after the season. There is a whole lot to like in Lewis, as he makes easy, consistent, hard contact from the right side and has managed to tap at least some power in his wiry 6'2" frame. He can also fly on the bases, enabling him to steal 68 bases in three years, and he's quickly improving at shortstop and looks like he's going to stick there. He trusts his hit tool so much that he can get aggressive at the plate, so the next step in his development will probably be learning to work counts more effectively and get pitches he wants to hit, rather than just pitches he can hit early in the count. There is little doubt that he'll be able to make that adjustment, and the upside remains that of a 15-20 homer bat with high on-base percentages and good defense, which would make him a borderline All Star.
- Nick Gordon (2020 Age: 24): Tom Gordon's son and Dee Gordon's little brother went fifth overall out of an Orlando high school in 2014, but it's taken a long time to finish off his development as he's stalled in the upper minors. A year after smoking AA pitching and struggling in AAA, Gordon hit a little better at the level in 2019 and slashed .298/.342/.459 with four home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 65/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at AAA Rochester, fighting through nagging injuries along the way. At this point, with the emergence of Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez in the Twins' middle infield, it might be tough for Gordon to break through into a starting role before Royce Lewis catches up to him. He makes consistent line drive contact but doesn't hit for much power, and without a ton of walks, he fits more as a utility infielder than a true starter at this point with the Twins' infield depth. He could be a very fine one, and he could be an all-around asset off the bench or in spot starts in the very near future.
- Travis Blankenhorn (2020 Age: 23-24): A tough 2018 (.231/.299/.387) dented Blankenhorn's stock, but he earned it back in 2019 by slashing .277/.321/.466 with 19 home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 105/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola. A third round pick out of the Pennsylvania high school ranks in 2015, he has worked his way up slowly but he shows a broad skill set that enables him to contribute in a variety of ways. His 6'2" frame and ability to find the barrel enables him to hit for some power, he limits his strikeouts to a reasonable amount, and his strong base running instincts help his fringy speed play up to efficient base stealing (38 steals in 45 career attempts, an 84.4% success rate). He's only a so-so defender that has seen time around the infield, and his bat is probably a bit too light to make up for it, so he has a shot at becoming a utility or super utility player down the road. It's a bit of a tweener profile, though, so he'll probably have to take one more step forward with some part of his game in order to stick.
- Wander Javier (2020 Age: 21): Javier signed for $4 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, but it has been a bumpy road so far for the young kid to say the least. He battled injuries in 2016 but broke out to slash .299/.383/.471 in 2017, then missed all of 2018 with a torn labrum in his shoulder. He returned in 2019 and struggled, slashing .177/.278/.323 with eleven home runs and a 116/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 games at Class A Cedar Rapids, but it's way too early to give up on him just yet. He's an explosive player with a lot of wiry strength that can produce good power, and he was able to get to it a bit in 2019 despite otherwise struggling. The Twins are hoping that he just needs another year to distance himself from the injury with more consistent at bats, and given that he'll play the whole season at 21 years old, he has a lot of time to put it behind him. With his good arm, he has a chance to stick at shortstop but could be a very fine third baseman if he doesn't. Really, it's hard to say what to expect at this point, but 2020 will be an important year for his development.
- Spencer Steer (2020 Age: 22): Steer was a bit of a sleeper when the Twins picked him up in the third round out of Oregon in 2019, and he's already starting to make people take notice after slashing .280/.385/.424 with four home runs and a 33/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at rookie level Elizabethton and Class A Cedar Rapids in his pro debut. If there's one way to describe him, it's competent. Steer understands the game all around, with a very advanced approach at the plate and the ability to find the barrel consistently from the right side. He's also a solid defender who can handle any position on the infield, and he played second, third, and shortstop in his pro debut. He looks like a utility infielder right off the bat due to the lack of power in his 5'11" frame, but I wouldn't write him off yet and he has a very real chance to hit his way to a starting job somewhere in the infield as a guy who could hit 10-15 home runs per season with high on-base percentages at his ceiling.
- Will Holland (2020 Age: 22): Holland was a fringe-first rounder heading into 2019, but an up and down junior year at Auburn dropped him to the fifth round, where the Twins happily grabbed him. He was up and down in his pro debut as well, slashing .192/.299/.376 with seven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 44/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at rookie level Elizabethton. Watching Holland play, he looks like a major leaguer with quick twitchy athleticism, smooth actions on the field, and the ability to hit for some power despite standing just 5'10". However, even coming out of a major SEC program, he's raw as a player and has the upside/floor combination you'd more expect to see in a high school draftee. He has to learn to lock down the strike zone and stay within himself at the plate, as he has a tendency to get over-aggressive and power-conscious at the plate. He has some natural power and feel for the barrel, and while he likely won't be a true power hitter, employing more of a balanced approach could help him be a real impact hitter down the road. He's also a very good defender and should stick at shortstop, which buys the bat time to develop.
- Keoni Cavaco (2020 Age: 18-19): Cavaco might have most extreme boom/bust profile in this system, having just been drafted in the first round out of a San Diego-area high school in 2019. He slashed just .172/.217/.253 with a home run and a 35/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, but that doesn't damper the Twins' excitement at all. Cavaco was a pop-up player who burst onto the scene in the spring, showing huge raw power from the right side as well as a cannon arm and a quickly improving all-around game. He generates that power from a big right handed swing, though given his overall profile as well as his tough pro debut, he might need to tone it down a bit in order to get to his power consistently in pro ball. There's also a chance he sticks at shortstop, though with his strong arm, he'd be a great fit for third base, especially given the depth up the middle in this system and the lack thereof at the corners. Additionally, with the full name of Keoni Kealakekua Cavaco, he grades as an 80 (top of the scale) in the all-important "name tool."
- Keep an eye on: Yeltsin Encarnacion, Michael Helman, Yunior Severino, Anthony Prato, Luis Gomez
Outfield
- Alex Kirilloff (2020 Age: 22): Kirilloff was a first round pick out of a Pittsburgh-area high school in 2016, then after missing 2017 with Tommy John surgery, he broke out in 2018 by slashing .348/.392/.578 with 71 extra base hits in 130 games. His numbers weren't quite as impressive in 2019, but he still finished at .283/.343/.413 with nine home runs and a 76/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 games at AA Pensacola, where he out-hit Royce Lewis. Kirilloff has the chance to be an impact hitter with his ability to make easy, consistent, hard contact from the left side, and he's already begun to tap some power. That should help him become a broad contributor at the plate in the majors, one who could hit 20-25 home runs annually with high on-base percentages, depending on how much he walks. In this case the bat is the entirety of the value, as he's an average left fielder who can hold his own. There's not much room in the Twins outfield right now, but if Kirilloff hits the way he is capable of, they will find a spot for him.
- Brent Rooker (2020 Age: 25): Rooker rode a sensational redshirt junior year at Mississippi State to becoming a Twins' competitive balance selection in 2017, and he's cracked 54 home runs in 259 games so far in the minors. 14 of those came in 2019, when he slashed .282/.399/.530 with a 95/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between AAA Rochester and some complex level rehab, though he missed time with wrist and groin problems and that likely kept him from reaching the majors. He has a ton of raw power that he generates from an explosive right handed swing and a sturdy 6'3" frame, and he's shown no problems getting to it in the minors with a .505 career slugging percentage and a .238 career ISO. He does swing and miss quite a bit, and while it hasn't impacted his game power yet in the minors, it's still something to watch once he reaches the majors. Defensively, he's below average and could even be considered a minor liability, and the Twins have tried him at first base as well as in right field. Given the depth in that Minnesota lineup, as well as the fact that Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach are coming up right behind him, it's hard to se him locking down a full time starting role unless he just rakes in Yordan Alvarez or Aristides Aquino fashion, though with his power, an explosive debut is not out of the question. I think he could lock down a starting role if given the chance and some time to prove himself, it just might be tough to get that chance in Minnesota.
- Trevor Larnach (2020 Age: 23): Larnach, a first round selection out of Oregon State in 2018, had a successful first full season in 2019 by slashing .309/.384/.458 with 13 home runs and a 124/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola, and now he's just about knocking on the door to the big leagues. Larnach has a lot of power and consistently hits the ball extremely hard, though for now it's more of a line drive approach and he's more than comfortable just spraying the ball around the field, which enabled him to hit 30 doubles this past year. If he can start to drive the ball in the air more often, he could really tap some power and hit 20-25 home runs per season, and his feel for hitting would enable him to post high on-base percentages as well. It will be interesting to see Kirilloff vs Rooker vs Larnach trying to break into that crowded Minnesota outfield. Rooker has the most power, while Kirilloff is the youngest and Larnach is perhaps the most balanced overall.
- Matt Wallner (2020 Age: 22): It's tough finding hometown players when you play in the Upper Midwest, but with Joe Mauer retired, the Twins might have found a new Minnesotan to take his place. Wallner, who grew up in Forest Lake about 25 miles north of St. Paul on I-35, was set to attend North Dakota before they closed down their baseball program, and he ended up way down south at Southern Miss. A standout career as a two-way player led to his selection in the competitive balance round in 2019, and he hit .258/.357/.452 with eight home runs and an 80/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at rookie level Elizabethton and Class A Cedar Rapids. Standing at a listed 6'5" and 220 pounds, Wallner is, as you'd expect, a power hitter. He has some of the best raw power in the system, perhaps challenged only by Brent Rooker and Keoni Cavaco, though there are questions as to his hit tool. He generates his power more on strength than bat speed, and he was a bit of a streaky hitter at Southern Miss. He'll have to keep the strikeouts down in order to hit at the higher levels, and he could have a similar profile to a left handed Rooker. One leg he does have up on Rooker is his cannon arm that could have gotten him drafted in the top five rounds as a pitcher, which makes him a solid right fielder.
- Akil Baddoo (2020 Age: 21): Baddoo went in the second competitive balance round out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2016, then hit .323/.436/.527 in his first full season to put himself on the map, albeit in rookie ball. Mixed results in 2018 (.243/.351/.419) let a bit of reality set in, but Tommy John surgery ended his 2019 season in May, after he had slashed .214/.290/.393 with four home runs and a 39/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at High A Fort Myers. He's a solid player with a clean, powerful swing from the left side, which enables him to hit his fair share of home runs as well as plenty of balls in the gaps, which he uses his plus speed to stretch into doubles and triples. The hope was that he'd start to grow into a bit more over the fence pop in his age-20 season in 2019, but we'll have to wait and see if that happens in his age-21 season in 2020. He's also a very patient hitter that draws a lot of walks, though patience doesn't always equate to control of the zone, and he can get streaky when he falls behind in the count too often. Overall, Baddoo is a dynamic player and the Twins are really interested to see who he can be, so there will be a lot of eyes on him in 2020.
- Gilberto Celestino (2020 Age: 21): Celestino was a highly touted amateur coming out of the Dominican Republic, and he signed with the Astros for $2.5 million in 2015 before being traded to Minnesota in the Ryan Pressly deal in 2018. In 2019, he slashed .277/.349/.410 with ten home runs, 14 stolen bases, and an 85/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers, continuing to show high upside while refining his overall game. Celestino is hit over power at this point, using his quick right handed swing to spray line drives all over the place, though he does have some wiry strength in his 6' frame and he could eventually hit 10-20 home runs per season. He's also a good runner that plays great defense in the outfield, making him a very well-rounded player for someone who won't turn 21 until just before spring training. He could develop in any number of ways, but the Twins like where he's heading and he could be an impact player on both sides of the ball in a few years.
- Misael Urbina (2020 Age: 18): Urbina signed for $2.75 million out of Venezuela in 2018, then had a successful first taste of pro ball by slashing .279/.382/.443 with two home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 14/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games in the complex level Dominican Summer League. It's not yet known quite how much impact he will hit for, but it is known that Urbina has a fantastic feel for hitting that enables him to make easy, consistent contact while controlling the count and drawing walks. Set to turn just 18 in April, it's likely that simple physical maturation will be enough to help Urbina start to really drive the ball consistently, and he did hit 14 doubles and five triples in just 50 DSL games in 2019. He's also a great runner who is still learning how to best deploy his speed in the outfield and on the bases, but it's an exciting overall package because he's got plenty of upside and he's right where the Twins want him to be in his development at this age.
- Keep an eye on: Gabriel Maciel, Ernie De La Trinidad, Trey Cabbage, Jacob Pearson, Luis Baez, Emmanuel Rodriguez
Starting Pitching
- Brusdar Graterol (2020 Age: 21): Graterol has been lighting up radar guns in the minors for a few years now, and after he posted a 1.92 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 61/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings between AA Pensacola, AAA Rochester, and some complex level rehab work, Twins fans got their first taste when he put up a 4.66 ERA and a 10/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 major league innings in September. With Graterol, everything starts with arm strength. He easily sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, and when he came out of the bullpen in his stint in the majors, he was hitting 100 with run and sink. That makes the rest of his stuff play up, including an upper 80's slider with short, hard bite as well as a curve and a changeup. His stuff is also difficult to pick up, as his lightning quick arm comes almost from a still position to suddenly releasing the ball in front of you at triple digits. His command is solid average, and it's likely that his success in the majors will hinge on whether it plays up or down at the major league level. The other, very important thing with Graterol is durability, as he has thrown just 223.2 pro innings in five years and missed all of 2016 with Tommy John surgery. If he can't hold up under a full season's worth of innings in the majors, he could be a lights out reliever.
- Lewis Thorpe (2020 Age: 24): After signing for $500,000 out of Australia in 2012, Thorpe missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery then all of 2016 with mono. However, he's made a successful return and in 2019, he posted a 4.58 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 119/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings at AAA Rochester, as well as a 6.18 ERA and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio in 27.2 major league innings. The 6'1" lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a nice curveball as well as a slider and a changeup, all of which he commands very well, and his command has enabled that stuff to play up and net him plenty of strikeouts. That's important, because the stuff on its own might be just a bit light to stick in a major league rotation, and that command should be the last little push he needs to be a #4 or a #5 starter in the near future. If he gets bumped out of that Minnesota rotation, a career as a lefty fastball/curveball reliever could still provide value.
- Jordan Balazovic (2020 Age: 21): A fifth round pick out of a Toronto-area high school in 2016, Balazovic flashed high ceiling potential over his first couple of seasons in the minors before truly breaking out in 2019. That breakout came with a 2.69 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 129/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.2 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers, showing no loss of effectiveness against the more advanced Florida State League hitters. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has added depth to his slider, which now looks like a plus pitch. His command has also been steadily improving, and with a solid changeup, he's much more of a complete pitcher than he was a year ago. Balazovic has also grown while in the Twins' system, now standing 6'5", and his long arms help his stuff play up even further. He's a bit farther off than Graterol, but his ceiling is just as high and he could be a top of the rotation guy in the not too distant future, so long as he stays healthy. His background growing up in Canada certainly doesn't hurt when it comes to pitching in cold weather in Minneapolis.
- Griffin Jax (2020 Age: 25): Jax was a standout at the Air Force Academy and was drafted in the third round in 2016, and in 2019 he posted a 2.90 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 127.1 innings at AA Pensacola and AAA Rochester. Jax won't blow you away with his stuff, sitting in the low 90's with a sinking fastball and adding a slider and a changeup, using the latter to get most of his strikeouts. Where he does excel is with his command, which makes all of his stuff play up, and his Air Force background really shows on the mound with his competitiveness and work ethic. He doesn't have the ceiling of some of the other guys on this list, but he could fight for a #4 or #5 starter role in the near future. If the stuff turns out to be too light, he could excel as a long reliever.
- Jhoan Duran (2020 Age: 22): Originally a Diamondbacks prospect, Duran came over in the Eduardo Escobar trade in 2018 and in 2019, he posted a 3.76 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 136/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 innings at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola. For him, it's all about velocity. He sits easily in the mid 90's with his fastball and consistently touches higher, and he can morph that fastball into a low 90's splitter that is difficult to square up. He also throws an inconsistent curveball with slider velocity, one that can get some really good depth on it when it's going right but which can flatten out at times. His changeup is a work in progress but because of his splitter, he won't need to lean heavily on it. Most guys with this profile have trouble throwing strikes, but Duran has done a good job on that front and has kept his walks down to the point where they're not hurting him. Whether he starts or relieves long term likely depends on maintaining and slightly refining his command as well as getting a bit more consistent with that curveball. If he can do those two things, he'll be a mid-rotation starter, and if not, he'll be a power reliever.
- Cole Sands (2020 Age: 22-23): Sands has always been talented, but he's also always been inconsistent and an up and down career at Florida State dropped him to the fifth round in 2018. After not pitching in pro ball that year due to minor biceps problems, he broke out in 2019 with a 2.68 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 108/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids, High A Fort Myers, and AA Pensacola. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and he's gotten more consistent with his slurvy curveball and his changeup. Most importantly, he's also gotten much more consistent with his command, and what was really a guessing game in college turned into a strength in pro ball. Overall, he looks like a #4 or #5 starter for now, but if he continues on his current trajectory and sharpens that curveball a bit more, he could outplay that and become a #3.
- Bailey Ober (2020 Age: 24-25): Ober has dealt with injuries throughout his career, but in 2019, he finally broke out with a ridiculous 0.69 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 100/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings at High A Fort Myers, AA Pensacola, and some complex level rehab work. He stands a towering 6'9" and sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding a fairly ordinary set of a curveball, a slider, and a changeup. However, his size helps him get a ton of extension towards the plate and the ball gets on hitters really quick, so when that's coupled with very good command, it's almost like he's reaching out and just placing the ball in the catcher's glove on the corners. Except that he's not placing it, he's throwing 93 with rise. There's no question that he's talented enough to be somewhere between a #3 and a #5 starter, but the problem has been health. He missed a lot of time at the College of Charleston with Tommy John surgery, and his elbow has continued to bother him in pro ball even post-surgery. Make sure to watch his health going forward, but he could be a very good reliever even if he's not durable enough for the rotation.
- Blayne Enlow (2020 Age: 21): Enlow, an over slot third round pick out of a Baton Rouge-area high school in 2017, hasn't quite put it together yet but he has pitched quite well, and in 2019 he had a 3.82 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 95/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110.2 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers. He's still more or less the same pitcher he was in high school, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding an inconsistent curveball that flashes plus as well as an average changeup with workable command. The one big difference in pro ball is that he's added a slider, though he's still working on refining it. 2016 draftee Jordan Balazovic had a huge breakout in 2019, and the Twins are hoping that 2020 will be Enlow's year. At 6'3", we've envisioned more velocity for years now, and while he hasn't taken that overall step forward, he still turns just 21 in spring training and has plenty of time to figure it out.
- Chris Vallimont (2020 Age: 23): Vallimont went to the Marlins in the fifth round in 2018 out of Mercyhurst College in Pennsylvania, then was traded to the Twins in the Sergio Romo/Lewin Diaz deal. Between the two organizations in 2019, he posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 150/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 127.2 innings between Class A and High A, a really nice transition for a kid coming up from Division II. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full set of secondaries, but while his command was shaky in college, it took a step forward in pro ball and that was the difference. If Vallimont can maintain the strides he's made with that command, he'll be able to focus on sharpening his offspeed stuff and working towards becoming a #4 or #5 starter.
- Matt Canterino (2020 Age: 22): Canterino was a second round pick out of Rice in 2019, and he went on to have a very successful pro debut with a 1.44 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, and a 31/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at Class A Cedar Rapids. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds two very good, distinct breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, as well as a changeup he's still figuring out. His delivery comes with a lot of moving parts, but he has great body control and throws consistent strikes, making him a pretty complete pitcher aside from the changeup. If he can stay healthy and develop that changeup, he has a very good chance to be a #3 starter.
- Keep an eye on: Charlie Barnes, Tyler Wells, Tyler Watson, Luis Rijo, Tanner Brubaker, Cody Laweryson, Landon Leach
Relief Pitching
- Jorge Alcala (2020 Age: 24-25): Alcala was another one of those random arms the Astros found and developed out of nowhere, and they shipped their former $10,000 signing to the Twins in the Ryan Pressly deal in 2018. In 2019, he posted a 5.47 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 116/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 110.1 innings at AA Pensacola and AAA Rochester, then earned a brief MLB call up and threw 1.2 shutout innings with a strikeout, a walk, and a hit allowed. Alcala is known for his arm, as he produces mid to upper 90's fastballs that rival those of Brusdar Graterol and Jhoan Duran, adding a full set of power secondary pitches. He can flash a plus breaking ball at times, though he also struggles to stay on top of his curve, making the slider the more consistent of the two. The command actually plays closer to average, but given the inconsistency of his secondary stuff, he might be better off in the bullpen, where he can drop a breaking ball and focus on really sharpening the other one. If the Twins decide to go that bullpen route, he could break camp with the team.
- Edwar Colina (2020 Age: 22-23): Colina is another power arm, one who also likely fits better in the bullpen than the rotation. In 2019, he posted a 2.96 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 102/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings at High A Fort Myers, AA Pensacola, and AAA Rochester, blowing away minor league hitters with his power stuff. He sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, which has some hard arm side run, and adds a hard slider that misses bats as well. It breaks a bit early out of his hand and major league hitters will likely be able to pick it up a bit better than minor league hitters, but it should play up once he switches to the bullpen and starts sitting in the upper 90's with that fastball. His command, on the other hand, is a bit fringier than that of Graterol, Duran, and Alcala, and the other three are probably safer bets at this point.
- Tom Hackimer (2020 Age: 25-26): Hackimer was a fourth round pick out of St. John's in 2016, and aside from a tough 2018, he's dominated the minors so far. In 2019, he posted a 2.54 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 75/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola. He's a righty sidearmer who doesn't throw overly hard, sitting around 90 with his fastball, but he gets good run on it and the low arm slot obviously makes it play up. He adds a slider and a changeup, neither of which stands out as plus, though it is a good changeup for a reliever with some nice diving action. Combined with some decent strike throwing ability, Hackimer has the chance to be a useful middle reliever in the near future.
- Keep an eye on: Zach Neff, Casey Legumina
Showing posts with label Akil Baddoo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Akil Baddoo. Show all posts
Friday, January 17, 2020
Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Reviewing the Minnesota Twins Farm System
The Twins have one of the game's better farm systems primarily because of two hitters, two former first round picks out of high school, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. However, the Twins do have quite a few interesting players behind them in their hitter-heavy system, including plenty of power. On the mound, they have an abundance of back-end starters and should have no problem with rotation depth in the coming years, with most of their higher-upside arms sitting lower in the minors.
Affiliates: AAA Rochester Red Wings, AA Chattanooga Lookouts*, High A Fort Myers Miracle, Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels, rookie level Elizabethton Twins, and complex level GCL and DSL Twins
*AA affiliate will move from Chattanooga, TN to Pensacola, FL in 2019
The Headliners: SS Royce Lewis and OF Alex Kirilloff
Except for possibly the Blue Jays with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, I'm not sure that any team has a better pair of hitters than the Twins' Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, both of whom were first round picks out of high school in 2017 and 2016, respectively. 19 year old Royce Lewis, the first overall pick of the 2017 draft out of high school in southern California, had a big first full pro season by slashing .292/.352/.451 with 14 home runs, 28 stolen bases, and an 84/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers. While he was much better at the lower level (.315/.368/.485) than the upper level (.255/.327/.399), the fact that he made it to High A barely a month after his 19th birthday and kept his plate discipline steady is a testament to how advanced his bat is at such a young age. Though he's more wiry and speed oriented at 6'2", Lewis has great feel for the barrel and can produce average power even with a more line drive oriented swing. His contact ability is so good for his age that I can see him adding loft down the road and producing above average power to go along with high on-base percentages and stolen base totals, making him a complete threat on the offensive side. Defensively, there are question marks as to whether he will be able to stay at shortstop, though he could likely handle second base well or use his plus speed to be an above average center fielder. Either way, he'll be a net-positive on defense while he hammers away at pro pitching. Meanwhile, 21 year old Alex Kirilloff was taken 15th overall out of a Pittsburgh-area high school in 2016 and after missing 2017 with Tommy John surgery, he came roaring back with one of the best statistical seasons in the minors. Kirilloff slashed .348/.392/.578 with 20 home runs and an 86/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, losing no production between the lower level (.333/.391/.607) and the upper level (.362/.393/.550). Kirilloff, like Lewis, does not get fooled at the plate and actually shows even more present power than Lewis (he hit 44 doubles and seven triples for a total of 71 extra base hits in 2018), and overall will probably produce slightly better offensive numbers than Lewis long term. Of course, Lewis is younger, faster, and provides more value on defense (Kirilloff looks to be an average right fielder), but Kirilloff certainly has a special bat. Look for Lewis and Kirilloff to both hit at the top of the lineup in a few years.
High Minors Pitchers: LHP Stephen Gonsalves, RHP Zack Littell, LHP Lewis Thorpe, RHP Jorge Alcala, and LHP Tyler Wells
While many of the Twins' more exciting arms are down lower in the minors, they do have a good set of back-end starters up close to the majors. 24 year old Stephen Gonsalves has had a long, dominant minor league career (53-20, 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP since 2013), and he may have finally capped it off in 2018 by going 12-3 with a 2.76 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 120/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings at AA Chattanooga and AAA Rochester before posting a 6.57 ERA and a 16/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 24.2 major league innings. Gonsalves is an interesting prospect, as he's a 6'5" lefty who gets by more on deception than stuff, or for that matter, command. He throws in the low 90's and adds a decent curveball, with his changeup being his best pitch, but his command comes and goes. On his best days, he hits his spots and has solid-average command, and on the next he may have no idea where the strike zone is. It's hard to comp him to another pitcher, though Gio Gonzalez makes sense if you leave out the height difference and swap out Gio's great curve for Stephen's great changeup. I can honestly see Gonsalves having a similar career to Gonzalez, and if that were the case, the Twins would take it. 23 year old Zack Littell was a member of the same 2013 draft class, though while Gonsalves was old for the class and turned 19 shortly after draft day, Littell didn't turn 18 until after the 2013 season. After being traded from Seattle to New York for James Pazos in 2016 and from New York to Minnesota for Jaime Garcia in 2017, the North Carolina native posted a 3.98 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 130/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 innings between Chattanooga and rochester in 2018, adding a 6.20 ERA and a 14/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 major league innings. He's a 6'4" right hander who controls his largely average stuff well, giving him back-end projection when it comes to starting in the major leagues. He'll likely be a more consistent starter than Gonsalves, though his ceiling is lower. 23 year old Lewis Thorpe posted a 3.54 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 157/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings at Chattanooga and Rochester in 2018, though unlike Gonsalves and Littell, he did not get a major league trial. The lefty from Melbourne, Australia missed both the 2015 and 2016 seasons with a one-two punch of Tommy John surgery and mono, but he came out of it stronger than before and may be the best prospect in this group. He also throws in the low 90's and adds solid-average stuff, though his command and ability to mix his pitches help everything play up. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, so seeing how he, along with Gonsalves and Littell, manages in the fight for rotation spots in 2019 will be very fun. 24 year old Tyler Wells was just a 15th round pick out of Cal State San Bernardino in 2016 but he has all of our attention after posting a 2.49 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 121/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings between High A Fort Myers and Chattanooga in 2018. The massive, 6'8", 265 pound right hander has average stuff with a deep arsenal (certainly following a trend here), but he uses his height well and commands his pitches even better, enabling him to make hitters look foolish at every stop. Wells is just a bit behind Gonsalves, Littell, and Thorpe on the depth chart, but another good year in the upper minors in 2019 could have him knocking on the door as a potential back end starter. Lastly, 23 year old Jorge Alcala came over from the Astros in the Ryan Pressly trade this season, posting a 3.81 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 104/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.1 innings at High A and AA between the two organizations. While the four pitchers above him on this list have deep arsenals and average fastballs, Alcala sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball while also maintaining a full array of secondary pitches. However, he hasn't put up quite the numbers you would expect given that stuff because his control is very lacking at this point, leading to him falling behind in the count and issuing high numbers of walks. The fact that he still keeps the quality of contact down even when he falls behind in the count is a good sign, because if he was able to improve that command and get his fair share of favorable counts, his stuff could play up and enable him to be an impact starter at the major league level. However, if his control does not sharpen, he runs the risk of ending up in the bullpen, where his fastball could likely push 100.
High Minors Hitters: SS Nick Gordon, OF LaMonte Wade, OF Brent Rooker, OF Luke Raley, and 2B Luis Arraez
The Twins don't have many impact bats up near the majors, but among their best prospects, there is a good mix of different skills. 23 year old Nick Gordon, the fifth overall pick in the 2014 draft out of high school in Orlando, has worked his way through the minors slowly and slashed .248/.298/.355 with seven home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 109/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Rochester this year. He actually hit really well in 42 games at Chattanooga (5 HR, .333/.381/.525) but he hit a major slump upon his promotion to Rochester and slashed just .212/.262/.283 the rest of the way. He plays a decent shortstop and even if he eventually has to move to second base, he profiles as above average there, so his glove and high draft status have bought the bat plenty of time to develop. Set to play all of 2019 at 23 years old, he still has more time, but the prolonged slump in AAA leaves some major question marks as to whether Gordon will ever hit enough to start in the majors. He keeps his strikeouts down, which will help ease his transition to the majors, but other than a few hot streaks here and there, he hasn't really shown much power or gotten on base consistently. If he can find his stroke consistently in 2019, that may point to a future as a starting infielder for the Twins, but he faces a utility projection if he doesn't put it all together this year. 25 year old LaMonte Wade, a sixth round pick out of Maryland in 2015, has had a similar post-draft career arc to Gordon by working his way up through the minors slowly for a college player then having a dichotomous season this year. In 2018, he slashed .257/.360/.380 with 11 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 74/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games between Chattanooga and Rochester, but like Gordon, he hit much better before the promotion (.298/.393/.444) than after (.229/.337/.336). He has no standout tool, but his advanced plate discipline, strong frame, and solid-average outfield defense make him a useful player in a variety of ways. His profile screams fourth outfielder and that's how I think he ends up, and he should be ready to contribute off the bench in 2019. Now-24 year old Brent Rooker rode a huge junior season at Mississippi State (23 HR, 18 SB, .387/.495/.810 against top tier SEC pitching) to a 35th overall selection in the 2017 draft and that power has played up in the minors, as he slashed .254/.333/.465 with 22 home runs and a 150/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Chattanooga in 2018, his first full pro season. His big, quick, powerful swing and 6'3" frame give him plenty of pop, though high strikeout rates hold back his production at this point. Cutting down on that strikeout rate just a little bit and finding the barrel just a little more often could pay huge dividends for him, and he has arguably the highest ceiling in this group even at 24 years old. Of course, a 24 year old cutting his strikeout rate at the highest levels is far from a given, and his mediocre outfield defense does put all of the pressure on his bat. I would really like to see Rooker succeed and put up big home run totals in the majors, but we'll have to see how he handles AAA first after Gordon and Wade struggled there. 24 year old Luke Raley came over from the Dodgers in the Brian Dozier trade and like Rooker, he puts up big power numbers, slashing .275/.350/.471 with 20 home runs and a 137/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AA. Raley's raw power isn't quite as impressive as Rooker's, but he has a slightly better feel for the barrel which enables him to get to it just as often as Rooker does, at least for now. His good outfield defense also boosts his value, though his power/contact combination might be just a hair too light to start in the majors and he looks like more of a platoon bat at this point. Lastly, 21 year old Luis Arraez is the youngest player in this section, coming off a 2018 where he slashed .310/.361/.397 with three home runs and a 44/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at High A Fort Myers and Chattanooga. Listed at 5'10" and just 155 pounds, Arraez will never be mistaken for a power hitter, but his exceptional bat-to-ball skills give evaluators little worry that he'll be able to handle higher level pitching as he moves up. At this point, he is able to spray line drives all over the field with ease and that primarily helped him push his on-base percentage to .361 in 2018, but becoming more patient at the plate and increasing his walk rate will be helpful in keeping those on-base percentages high as he moves up. Defensively, he plays a decent second base but may be pushed to the outfield, though his contact ability will enable him to reach the majors regardless of his defensive role, even if it's just in a reserve role.
Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Brusdar Graterol, LHP Charlie Barnes, RHP Blayne Enlow, RHP Jordan Balazovic, RHP Jhoan Duran, and RHP Griffin Jax
The team's best pitching prospects reside lower in the minor leagues, with plenty of exciting arms and lots of upside. 20 year old Brusdar Graterol leads not only this group, but the whole Twins system as the team's consensus best pitching prospect. The 6'1" righty had a dominant year in A ball by posting a 2.74 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 107/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers, continuing to put up great numbers even after the promotion. He already throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a full arsenal that is still developing, though his slider already stands out as a potential out pitch and his command is developing nicely. On the to-do list for 2019 will be further sharpening his secondary pitches, and if he can do that successfully, he has top of the rotation potential. 20 year old pitchers always carry some level of risk, but Graterol's upside and chances of reaching it are both high. 23 year old Charlie Barnes is a very different pitcher from Graterol, riding a fourth round selection out of Clemson in 2017 to a successful first full season in 2018, posting a 2.81 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an 84/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings at Fort Myers. The 6'2" lefty doesn't throw all that hard with a fastball right around 90, but he adds a full arsenal and commands and mixes everything very well, helping his average stuff play up and enabling him to successfully handle High A within a year after being drafted. He has #5 starter upside. Moving down a level, 19 year old Blayne Enlow is a 6'3" righty with high upside, and he posted a 3.26 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 71/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings at Cedar Rapids in 2018. He throws in the low 90's but is projectable enough to easily envision more velocity, and his curveball is among the best in the Twins' system. His command is coming along nicely, though he was a little bit more hittable than you would think in 2018. Look for an uptick in his strikeout rate in 2019, which could signal a breakout and put him on the fast track to being a #2 starter, but for now the Twins are happy with his development and he'll turn 20 just before the start of the season. 20 year old Jordan Balazovic is more of a sleeper prospect as he has slowly worked his way through the low minors, posting a 3.94 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 78/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings at Cedar Rapids in 2018. The 6'4" Canadian righty is extremely projectable and already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and his secondary pitches and command are both coming along. The command was his biggest step forward in 2018, and like the more well-known Enlow, Balazovic is a breakout candidate for 2019 with a mid-rotation ceiling. 21 year old Jhoan Duran came over from the Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar trade, posting a 3.75 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 115/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings between the two teams' Class A affiliates. His upside is tremendous given his mid 90's fastball and 6'5" frame, though the rest of his game needs work. The curveball is coming along and his command is getting close to average, though either his secondaries or that command will need to take another step forward if he wants to remain a starter. Otherwise, he could be very effective as a late-inning reliever. Lastly, we have 24 year old Griffin Jax, who will have perhaps the least linear path to the major leagues in this system. In 2018, he posted a 3.70 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 66/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 87.2 innings at Fort Myers, but that's only part of the story. Jax is an Air Force Academy graduate who must serve two years of active duty in the Air Force, though he earned a temporary exemption from 2018-2020 through the World Class Athletes program. He throws a low 90's fastball with a curveball and a slider, commanding it all well and coming with solid #4 starter upside. However, Jax isn't out of the woods yet when it comes to military service time, so we'll have to wait and see how the Twins and the Department of Defense handle him going forward.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Ernie De La Trinidad, 2B Jose Miranda, OF Akil Baddoo, OF Trevor Larnach, C Ryan Jeffers, OF Gilberto Celestino, and SS Wander Javier
The Twins looked to be very deep with their mid minors hitting prospects, especially after big seasons from Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, but disappointing seasons from guys like Lewin Diaz, Ben Rortvedt, Travis Blankenhorn, and Andrew Bechtold, as well as a lost season for the injured Wander Javier, have left the non-Lewis/Kirilloff group looking less impactful than it was before the season. One addition that helps mitigate that a little bit is 23 year old Ernie De La Trinidad, who came over from the Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar trade. De La Trinidad mashed in his first full season out of UNLV, slashing .309/.394/.424 with nine home runs and a 65/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games between the Diamondbacks' Class A affiliate and High A Fort Myers. He packs a lot of punch for a skinny, 5'9" outfielder, but his very good plate discipline helps him find the barrel more often than not and subsequently makes him an above average hitter. With his decent outfield defense, De La Trinidad looks like a solid fourth outfielder down the road. 20 year old Jose Miranda had a big year at the plate, slashing .264/.319/.417 with 16 home runs and a 62/31 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, showing some power as well as excellent contact ability. He could use a few more walks if he wants a chance at starting down the road, but the innate ability to get his pitch and do damage with it will help ease his transitions into the higher minors. Defensively, he's just okay at second base and has been moved around the field, so while the glove won't be buying the bat any slack, at least he's versatile. 20 year old Akil Baddoo is one of my favorite players in this system, and he built off a breakout 2017 season by slashing .243/.351/.419 with 11 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 124/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at Cedar Rapids. Baddoo was very raw when the Twins drafted him in the competitive balance round (74th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2016, and while he has made strides at the plate, that rawness still shows in his numbers. He's exceptionally patient and draws a ton of walks, which in turn enables him to use his plus speed to steal more bases, and as his swing has improved, he has been adding power. He'll likely never be a 25 homer guy at 5'11", but if he can further streamline his swing and continue to improve his pitch recognition, he could become the complete package at the plate with moderate power, high on-base percentages, and lots of stolen bases. Defensively, he's still learning to use his speed effectively, but he's a center fielder for now and would be above average if he were forced to move to left. I'll be watching his transition to High A in 2019 very closely. 21 year old Trevor Larnach was drafted 20th overall out of Oregon State in 2018, and after he and the Beavers won the College World Series, he slashed .303/.390/.500 with five home runs and a 28/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games at rookie level Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. He has an excellent bat that shows both power and on-base ability, with his advanced approach helping him limit strikeouts and take walks when they're given to him. While he doesn't have light tower power like Brent Rooker, the 6'4" outfielder regularly barrels the ball up and produced high exit velocities in college, giving him a projection of 25 home runs per season or more with high on-base percentages. His outfield defense is fairly mediocre, but that doesn't matter because he has plenty of bat to make up for it. 21 year old Ryan Jeffers was drafted right after Larnach in the second round (59th overall) out of UNC-Wilmington, and he absolutely mashed in his pro debut with a .344/.444/.502 slash line, seven home runs, and a 46/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. The huge debut erases any pre-draft concerns about his track record with wood bats, as the 6'4" catcher showed plenty of both power and plate discipline. He's decent defensively with the chance to stick behind the plate but no guarantee, but if he remains a catcher up to the major league level, he could be a rare bat-first MLB catcher. With another big year in 2019, he'll pass Ben Rortvedt on the depth chart and establish himself as the team's catcher of the future. 19 year old Gilberto Celestino came over with Jorge Alcala in the Ryan Pressly trade, and he slashed .287/.341/.406 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 46/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in rookie ball and short season ball (plus eight fruitless at bats in AA) between the two teams. He's hit over power at the plate with the chance to develop more of the latter, but at this point, his speed and great defense in center field carry him as a prospect. The glove will buy his bat plenty of time to mature, and with his 20th birthday coming up, it's not like he's in any rush anyways. Improving his plate discipline could make Celestino a future leadoff man, and we'll see how the bat, which is already fairly advanced for his age, translates to full season ball in 2019. Lastly, we have 20 year old Wander Javier, who missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury. Back in 2017, he slashed .299/.383/.471 as an 18 year old in the rookie level Appalachian League, and when you combine that natural line drive bat with the potential to stick at shortstop, you have a very good prospect on your hands. There could be more power to come in his 6'1" frame, and with his natural contact ability, he has the chance to be an impact player on both offense and defense. However, we'll first have to see how he returns from his injury before we go on labelling him a "top prospect." He'll be another interesting bat to watch in 2019.
Affiliates: AAA Rochester Red Wings, AA Chattanooga Lookouts*, High A Fort Myers Miracle, Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels, rookie level Elizabethton Twins, and complex level GCL and DSL Twins
*AA affiliate will move from Chattanooga, TN to Pensacola, FL in 2019
The Headliners: SS Royce Lewis and OF Alex Kirilloff
Except for possibly the Blue Jays with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, I'm not sure that any team has a better pair of hitters than the Twins' Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, both of whom were first round picks out of high school in 2017 and 2016, respectively. 19 year old Royce Lewis, the first overall pick of the 2017 draft out of high school in southern California, had a big first full pro season by slashing .292/.352/.451 with 14 home runs, 28 stolen bases, and an 84/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers. While he was much better at the lower level (.315/.368/.485) than the upper level (.255/.327/.399), the fact that he made it to High A barely a month after his 19th birthday and kept his plate discipline steady is a testament to how advanced his bat is at such a young age. Though he's more wiry and speed oriented at 6'2", Lewis has great feel for the barrel and can produce average power even with a more line drive oriented swing. His contact ability is so good for his age that I can see him adding loft down the road and producing above average power to go along with high on-base percentages and stolen base totals, making him a complete threat on the offensive side. Defensively, there are question marks as to whether he will be able to stay at shortstop, though he could likely handle second base well or use his plus speed to be an above average center fielder. Either way, he'll be a net-positive on defense while he hammers away at pro pitching. Meanwhile, 21 year old Alex Kirilloff was taken 15th overall out of a Pittsburgh-area high school in 2016 and after missing 2017 with Tommy John surgery, he came roaring back with one of the best statistical seasons in the minors. Kirilloff slashed .348/.392/.578 with 20 home runs and an 86/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, losing no production between the lower level (.333/.391/.607) and the upper level (.362/.393/.550). Kirilloff, like Lewis, does not get fooled at the plate and actually shows even more present power than Lewis (he hit 44 doubles and seven triples for a total of 71 extra base hits in 2018), and overall will probably produce slightly better offensive numbers than Lewis long term. Of course, Lewis is younger, faster, and provides more value on defense (Kirilloff looks to be an average right fielder), but Kirilloff certainly has a special bat. Look for Lewis and Kirilloff to both hit at the top of the lineup in a few years.
High Minors Pitchers: LHP Stephen Gonsalves, RHP Zack Littell, LHP Lewis Thorpe, RHP Jorge Alcala, and LHP Tyler Wells
While many of the Twins' more exciting arms are down lower in the minors, they do have a good set of back-end starters up close to the majors. 24 year old Stephen Gonsalves has had a long, dominant minor league career (53-20, 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP since 2013), and he may have finally capped it off in 2018 by going 12-3 with a 2.76 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 120/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings at AA Chattanooga and AAA Rochester before posting a 6.57 ERA and a 16/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 24.2 major league innings. Gonsalves is an interesting prospect, as he's a 6'5" lefty who gets by more on deception than stuff, or for that matter, command. He throws in the low 90's and adds a decent curveball, with his changeup being his best pitch, but his command comes and goes. On his best days, he hits his spots and has solid-average command, and on the next he may have no idea where the strike zone is. It's hard to comp him to another pitcher, though Gio Gonzalez makes sense if you leave out the height difference and swap out Gio's great curve for Stephen's great changeup. I can honestly see Gonsalves having a similar career to Gonzalez, and if that were the case, the Twins would take it. 23 year old Zack Littell was a member of the same 2013 draft class, though while Gonsalves was old for the class and turned 19 shortly after draft day, Littell didn't turn 18 until after the 2013 season. After being traded from Seattle to New York for James Pazos in 2016 and from New York to Minnesota for Jaime Garcia in 2017, the North Carolina native posted a 3.98 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 130/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 innings between Chattanooga and rochester in 2018, adding a 6.20 ERA and a 14/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 major league innings. He's a 6'4" right hander who controls his largely average stuff well, giving him back-end projection when it comes to starting in the major leagues. He'll likely be a more consistent starter than Gonsalves, though his ceiling is lower. 23 year old Lewis Thorpe posted a 3.54 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 157/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings at Chattanooga and Rochester in 2018, though unlike Gonsalves and Littell, he did not get a major league trial. The lefty from Melbourne, Australia missed both the 2015 and 2016 seasons with a one-two punch of Tommy John surgery and mono, but he came out of it stronger than before and may be the best prospect in this group. He also throws in the low 90's and adds solid-average stuff, though his command and ability to mix his pitches help everything play up. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, so seeing how he, along with Gonsalves and Littell, manages in the fight for rotation spots in 2019 will be very fun. 24 year old Tyler Wells was just a 15th round pick out of Cal State San Bernardino in 2016 but he has all of our attention after posting a 2.49 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 121/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings between High A Fort Myers and Chattanooga in 2018. The massive, 6'8", 265 pound right hander has average stuff with a deep arsenal (certainly following a trend here), but he uses his height well and commands his pitches even better, enabling him to make hitters look foolish at every stop. Wells is just a bit behind Gonsalves, Littell, and Thorpe on the depth chart, but another good year in the upper minors in 2019 could have him knocking on the door as a potential back end starter. Lastly, 23 year old Jorge Alcala came over from the Astros in the Ryan Pressly trade this season, posting a 3.81 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 104/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.1 innings at High A and AA between the two organizations. While the four pitchers above him on this list have deep arsenals and average fastballs, Alcala sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball while also maintaining a full array of secondary pitches. However, he hasn't put up quite the numbers you would expect given that stuff because his control is very lacking at this point, leading to him falling behind in the count and issuing high numbers of walks. The fact that he still keeps the quality of contact down even when he falls behind in the count is a good sign, because if he was able to improve that command and get his fair share of favorable counts, his stuff could play up and enable him to be an impact starter at the major league level. However, if his control does not sharpen, he runs the risk of ending up in the bullpen, where his fastball could likely push 100.
High Minors Hitters: SS Nick Gordon, OF LaMonte Wade, OF Brent Rooker, OF Luke Raley, and 2B Luis Arraez
The Twins don't have many impact bats up near the majors, but among their best prospects, there is a good mix of different skills. 23 year old Nick Gordon, the fifth overall pick in the 2014 draft out of high school in Orlando, has worked his way through the minors slowly and slashed .248/.298/.355 with seven home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 109/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Rochester this year. He actually hit really well in 42 games at Chattanooga (5 HR, .333/.381/.525) but he hit a major slump upon his promotion to Rochester and slashed just .212/.262/.283 the rest of the way. He plays a decent shortstop and even if he eventually has to move to second base, he profiles as above average there, so his glove and high draft status have bought the bat plenty of time to develop. Set to play all of 2019 at 23 years old, he still has more time, but the prolonged slump in AAA leaves some major question marks as to whether Gordon will ever hit enough to start in the majors. He keeps his strikeouts down, which will help ease his transition to the majors, but other than a few hot streaks here and there, he hasn't really shown much power or gotten on base consistently. If he can find his stroke consistently in 2019, that may point to a future as a starting infielder for the Twins, but he faces a utility projection if he doesn't put it all together this year. 25 year old LaMonte Wade, a sixth round pick out of Maryland in 2015, has had a similar post-draft career arc to Gordon by working his way up through the minors slowly for a college player then having a dichotomous season this year. In 2018, he slashed .257/.360/.380 with 11 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 74/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games between Chattanooga and Rochester, but like Gordon, he hit much better before the promotion (.298/.393/.444) than after (.229/.337/.336). He has no standout tool, but his advanced plate discipline, strong frame, and solid-average outfield defense make him a useful player in a variety of ways. His profile screams fourth outfielder and that's how I think he ends up, and he should be ready to contribute off the bench in 2019. Now-24 year old Brent Rooker rode a huge junior season at Mississippi State (23 HR, 18 SB, .387/.495/.810 against top tier SEC pitching) to a 35th overall selection in the 2017 draft and that power has played up in the minors, as he slashed .254/.333/.465 with 22 home runs and a 150/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Chattanooga in 2018, his first full pro season. His big, quick, powerful swing and 6'3" frame give him plenty of pop, though high strikeout rates hold back his production at this point. Cutting down on that strikeout rate just a little bit and finding the barrel just a little more often could pay huge dividends for him, and he has arguably the highest ceiling in this group even at 24 years old. Of course, a 24 year old cutting his strikeout rate at the highest levels is far from a given, and his mediocre outfield defense does put all of the pressure on his bat. I would really like to see Rooker succeed and put up big home run totals in the majors, but we'll have to see how he handles AAA first after Gordon and Wade struggled there. 24 year old Luke Raley came over from the Dodgers in the Brian Dozier trade and like Rooker, he puts up big power numbers, slashing .275/.350/.471 with 20 home runs and a 137/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AA. Raley's raw power isn't quite as impressive as Rooker's, but he has a slightly better feel for the barrel which enables him to get to it just as often as Rooker does, at least for now. His good outfield defense also boosts his value, though his power/contact combination might be just a hair too light to start in the majors and he looks like more of a platoon bat at this point. Lastly, 21 year old Luis Arraez is the youngest player in this section, coming off a 2018 where he slashed .310/.361/.397 with three home runs and a 44/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at High A Fort Myers and Chattanooga. Listed at 5'10" and just 155 pounds, Arraez will never be mistaken for a power hitter, but his exceptional bat-to-ball skills give evaluators little worry that he'll be able to handle higher level pitching as he moves up. At this point, he is able to spray line drives all over the field with ease and that primarily helped him push his on-base percentage to .361 in 2018, but becoming more patient at the plate and increasing his walk rate will be helpful in keeping those on-base percentages high as he moves up. Defensively, he plays a decent second base but may be pushed to the outfield, though his contact ability will enable him to reach the majors regardless of his defensive role, even if it's just in a reserve role.
Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Brusdar Graterol, LHP Charlie Barnes, RHP Blayne Enlow, RHP Jordan Balazovic, RHP Jhoan Duran, and RHP Griffin Jax
The team's best pitching prospects reside lower in the minor leagues, with plenty of exciting arms and lots of upside. 20 year old Brusdar Graterol leads not only this group, but the whole Twins system as the team's consensus best pitching prospect. The 6'1" righty had a dominant year in A ball by posting a 2.74 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 107/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers, continuing to put up great numbers even after the promotion. He already throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a full arsenal that is still developing, though his slider already stands out as a potential out pitch and his command is developing nicely. On the to-do list for 2019 will be further sharpening his secondary pitches, and if he can do that successfully, he has top of the rotation potential. 20 year old pitchers always carry some level of risk, but Graterol's upside and chances of reaching it are both high. 23 year old Charlie Barnes is a very different pitcher from Graterol, riding a fourth round selection out of Clemson in 2017 to a successful first full season in 2018, posting a 2.81 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an 84/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings at Fort Myers. The 6'2" lefty doesn't throw all that hard with a fastball right around 90, but he adds a full arsenal and commands and mixes everything very well, helping his average stuff play up and enabling him to successfully handle High A within a year after being drafted. He has #5 starter upside. Moving down a level, 19 year old Blayne Enlow is a 6'3" righty with high upside, and he posted a 3.26 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 71/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings at Cedar Rapids in 2018. He throws in the low 90's but is projectable enough to easily envision more velocity, and his curveball is among the best in the Twins' system. His command is coming along nicely, though he was a little bit more hittable than you would think in 2018. Look for an uptick in his strikeout rate in 2019, which could signal a breakout and put him on the fast track to being a #2 starter, but for now the Twins are happy with his development and he'll turn 20 just before the start of the season. 20 year old Jordan Balazovic is more of a sleeper prospect as he has slowly worked his way through the low minors, posting a 3.94 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 78/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings at Cedar Rapids in 2018. The 6'4" Canadian righty is extremely projectable and already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and his secondary pitches and command are both coming along. The command was his biggest step forward in 2018, and like the more well-known Enlow, Balazovic is a breakout candidate for 2019 with a mid-rotation ceiling. 21 year old Jhoan Duran came over from the Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar trade, posting a 3.75 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 115/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings between the two teams' Class A affiliates. His upside is tremendous given his mid 90's fastball and 6'5" frame, though the rest of his game needs work. The curveball is coming along and his command is getting close to average, though either his secondaries or that command will need to take another step forward if he wants to remain a starter. Otherwise, he could be very effective as a late-inning reliever. Lastly, we have 24 year old Griffin Jax, who will have perhaps the least linear path to the major leagues in this system. In 2018, he posted a 3.70 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 66/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 87.2 innings at Fort Myers, but that's only part of the story. Jax is an Air Force Academy graduate who must serve two years of active duty in the Air Force, though he earned a temporary exemption from 2018-2020 through the World Class Athletes program. He throws a low 90's fastball with a curveball and a slider, commanding it all well and coming with solid #4 starter upside. However, Jax isn't out of the woods yet when it comes to military service time, so we'll have to wait and see how the Twins and the Department of Defense handle him going forward.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Ernie De La Trinidad, 2B Jose Miranda, OF Akil Baddoo, OF Trevor Larnach, C Ryan Jeffers, OF Gilberto Celestino, and SS Wander Javier
The Twins looked to be very deep with their mid minors hitting prospects, especially after big seasons from Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, but disappointing seasons from guys like Lewin Diaz, Ben Rortvedt, Travis Blankenhorn, and Andrew Bechtold, as well as a lost season for the injured Wander Javier, have left the non-Lewis/Kirilloff group looking less impactful than it was before the season. One addition that helps mitigate that a little bit is 23 year old Ernie De La Trinidad, who came over from the Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar trade. De La Trinidad mashed in his first full season out of UNLV, slashing .309/.394/.424 with nine home runs and a 65/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games between the Diamondbacks' Class A affiliate and High A Fort Myers. He packs a lot of punch for a skinny, 5'9" outfielder, but his very good plate discipline helps him find the barrel more often than not and subsequently makes him an above average hitter. With his decent outfield defense, De La Trinidad looks like a solid fourth outfielder down the road. 20 year old Jose Miranda had a big year at the plate, slashing .264/.319/.417 with 16 home runs and a 62/31 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, showing some power as well as excellent contact ability. He could use a few more walks if he wants a chance at starting down the road, but the innate ability to get his pitch and do damage with it will help ease his transitions into the higher minors. Defensively, he's just okay at second base and has been moved around the field, so while the glove won't be buying the bat any slack, at least he's versatile. 20 year old Akil Baddoo is one of my favorite players in this system, and he built off a breakout 2017 season by slashing .243/.351/.419 with 11 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 124/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at Cedar Rapids. Baddoo was very raw when the Twins drafted him in the competitive balance round (74th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2016, and while he has made strides at the plate, that rawness still shows in his numbers. He's exceptionally patient and draws a ton of walks, which in turn enables him to use his plus speed to steal more bases, and as his swing has improved, he has been adding power. He'll likely never be a 25 homer guy at 5'11", but if he can further streamline his swing and continue to improve his pitch recognition, he could become the complete package at the plate with moderate power, high on-base percentages, and lots of stolen bases. Defensively, he's still learning to use his speed effectively, but he's a center fielder for now and would be above average if he were forced to move to left. I'll be watching his transition to High A in 2019 very closely. 21 year old Trevor Larnach was drafted 20th overall out of Oregon State in 2018, and after he and the Beavers won the College World Series, he slashed .303/.390/.500 with five home runs and a 28/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games at rookie level Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. He has an excellent bat that shows both power and on-base ability, with his advanced approach helping him limit strikeouts and take walks when they're given to him. While he doesn't have light tower power like Brent Rooker, the 6'4" outfielder regularly barrels the ball up and produced high exit velocities in college, giving him a projection of 25 home runs per season or more with high on-base percentages. His outfield defense is fairly mediocre, but that doesn't matter because he has plenty of bat to make up for it. 21 year old Ryan Jeffers was drafted right after Larnach in the second round (59th overall) out of UNC-Wilmington, and he absolutely mashed in his pro debut with a .344/.444/.502 slash line, seven home runs, and a 46/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. The huge debut erases any pre-draft concerns about his track record with wood bats, as the 6'4" catcher showed plenty of both power and plate discipline. He's decent defensively with the chance to stick behind the plate but no guarantee, but if he remains a catcher up to the major league level, he could be a rare bat-first MLB catcher. With another big year in 2019, he'll pass Ben Rortvedt on the depth chart and establish himself as the team's catcher of the future. 19 year old Gilberto Celestino came over with Jorge Alcala in the Ryan Pressly trade, and he slashed .287/.341/.406 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 46/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in rookie ball and short season ball (plus eight fruitless at bats in AA) between the two teams. He's hit over power at the plate with the chance to develop more of the latter, but at this point, his speed and great defense in center field carry him as a prospect. The glove will buy his bat plenty of time to mature, and with his 20th birthday coming up, it's not like he's in any rush anyways. Improving his plate discipline could make Celestino a future leadoff man, and we'll see how the bat, which is already fairly advanced for his age, translates to full season ball in 2019. Lastly, we have 20 year old Wander Javier, who missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury. Back in 2017, he slashed .299/.383/.471 as an 18 year old in the rookie level Appalachian League, and when you combine that natural line drive bat with the potential to stick at shortstop, you have a very good prospect on your hands. There could be more power to come in his 6'1" frame, and with his natural contact ability, he has the chance to be an impact player on both offense and defense. However, we'll first have to see how he returns from his injury before we go on labelling him a "top prospect." He'll be another interesting bat to watch in 2019.
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Reviewing My 2016 Draft Rankings
Intro
I composed my first draft prospect list in 2015, which went 60 deep and, as you would expect from my first time, was filled with holes. I was able to successfully project the success of players like Walker Buehler, Kolby Allard, and Triston McKenzie, but swung and missed badly with a low ranking of Andrew Benintendi and a high ranking of Mike Nikorak. In 2016, with a year's experience under my belt, I ranked 150 players and published the top 100, and while it still wasn't my best work, I was much happier with it than I was with my 2015 rankings. I believe 2017 was the first year where I truly am content, but seeing that you can't evaluate a draft class on its first pro season, let's take a look back at how my 2016 draft rankings have fared 16 months in.
Linked here are my top 100 draft prospects for 2016: http://www.coverthosebas
There will be three sections:
Biggest Successes: Players that I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who, after their first full professional season, have outplayed that consensus and fit closer with my ranking than with most others
Biggest Misses I: Players that have outplayed my predictions, proving my ranking to be too conservative
Biggest Misses II: Players who I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who have not lived up to my expectations, proving my ranking to be too aggressive
Biggest Successes
#8 Forrest Whitley (MLB.com ranking: 12. Draft position: 17, Astros)
I loved everything about Whitley coming into draft day, noting the excellent downhill plane on his mid-90's fastball and his late-breaking, two-plane curveball. Putting an asterisk next to his name because of how high I was on him, I saw the potential to be an ace who could easily wind up as at least a mid-rotation starter. While he was ranked eighth on my list and 12th on MLB.com, he fell to pick #17, where the Astros took him. After a decent debut that summer, he caught fire this year and reached AA as a teenager. Not only did he pitch for AA Corpus Christi just 14 months after graduating high school, he actually thrived, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a sharp 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 14.2 innings. I projected him as a potential ace, and he has done everything necessary to remain on track for that.
#11 Dakota Hudson (MLB.com ranking: 15. Draft position: 34, Cardinals)
This is another instance where my ranking, MLB.com's ranking, and the draft position were all in order. I bought in on Hudson's breakout season at Mississippi State, citing his devastating fastball/slider combination despite the lack of a proven track record. Despite being thought of as more of a project than a finished product, Hudson has progressed rapidly through the St. Louis farm system, starting 2017 off with AA Springfield and pitching very well (9-4, 2.53 ERA, 77/34 K/BB) before a late season promotion to AAA Memphis in just his first full professional season. While his Memphis numbers weren't excellent (4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19/15 K/BB in 38.2 innings), the fact of the matter is that he was in AAA barely a year removed from college and that he has addressed, though not fully vanquished, questions about his durability. He'll need more polish at AAA to begin 2018, but we should see the Tennessee native in the majors at some point during the year, my buying into his breakout year is looking pretty good.
#28 Carter Kieboom (MLB.com ranking: 45. Draft position: 28, Nationals)
This one is different than the first two, because both I and the Nationals saw something in Kieboom that MLB.com didn't. I saw his long swing but noticed that the bat head was in the zone for a long time, comparing him to Anthony Rendon if he could tap into his raw power. Pessimists didn't like the risk he carried, but I was enamored enough with his offensive upside to put label him a first round talent. Like Whitely, he earned an asterisk next to his name, used to denote my favorite players in the draft. The Nationals seemingly agreed with my optimism, taking him in the same spot I ranked him. He has exceeded expectations so far, sticking at shortstop for now despite most prognosticating him as a third baseman, and his bat has translated up to full season ball with no problems. In 48 games at Class A Hagerstown (with time missed to injury), he slashed .296/.400/.497 with eight home runs and a solid 40/28 strikeout to walk ratio despite not turning 20 until the very end of the season. If he can stay healthy, that Anthony Rendon projection could work out.
#34 Alec Hansen (MLB.com ranking: 62. Draft position: 49, White Sox)
Alec Hansen was an interesting case. The 6'7" right hander entered the spring as a candidate to go #1 overall with his mid to upper 90's fastball and solid secondaries, but his command completely dissolved at the beginning of the season and he was booted from Oklahoma's rotation. He managed to right the ship somewhat as the season went on, but his final line was less than inspiring: 5.40 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 75/39 K/BB in 51.2 innings against mostly Big 12 competition. He had the high strikeout numbers, but if he couldn't harness his stuff, that would mean nothing at the next level. He plummeted in the rankings, but I chose to stay on the bandwagon and keep him at #34, 28 spots higher than MLB.com and 15 spots higher than his eventual draft position. I noted that pro coaching had the potential to streamline his delivery and improve his consistency, and so far, the results have been excellent. In 38 starts since being drafted, Hansen is 13-9 with a 2.39 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and most impressively, a 272/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 196 innings. He reached AA at the end of this season, making two starts and posting a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 10.1 innings. The difference has been the return of his control, which was non-existent at OU (6.79 BB/9 in his junior year) but has reached an acceptable level in the minors (3.26 BB/9). At this point, he's looking more and more like the pitcher many thought could go first overall, and #34 could be too conservative a ranking when it's all said and done.
#56 Mike Shawaryn (MLB.com ranking: 139. Draft position: 148, Red Sox)
Mike Shawaryn is like Hansen-lite. After an excellent sophomore season at Maryland (13-2, 1.71 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 138/29 K/BB), he entered the spring as a potential first round pick. However, his junior season was inconsistent (6-4, 3.18 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 97/26 K/BB), and he slipped way down draft boards. He had a funky delivery to begin with, and skeptics saw the regression as a sign that his mechanics wouldn't work at the next level. I dropped him a fair amount as well, but I kept him in the top 60 because I didn't think his 2016 was as frightening as people thought. He maintained a high strikeout rate with 97 in 99 innings (I can't find batters faced data anywhere, so I don't know the K% or BB%), and he maintained a low walk rate of 2.36 per nine. The fact that he had solid control was what eased my mind over the mechanical worries, but it didn't for MLB teams, and he slipped to the fifth round, where the Red Sox took him 148th overall. Through 32 minor league starts reaching up to High Class A, he hasn't been amazing but he has more than held his own, going 8-8 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 191/55 strikeout to walk ratio in 150.1 innings. Those numbers don't pop off the page, but I do like the high strikeout rate, and he's looking more like a second or third round pick than a fifth rounder right now. We'll have to keep an eye on the 0.80 career ground out to air out ratio though.
#63 Akil Baddoo (MLB.com ranking: 72. Draft position: 74, Twins)
This one is interesting. As of draft day, he was an extremely raw player with poor mechanics whose athleticism and overall trajectory got him noticed. He had big bat speed but looked like he would need a lot of refinement from pro coaching to get anywhere. A .178/.299/.570 slash line in the Gulf Coast League in 2016 seemingly confirmed that, though his 14.2% walk rate was promising. He spent the beginning of 2017 back in the GCL, slashing .267/.360/.440 in 20 games, but he caught fire upon a promotion to rookie level Elizabethton. In 33 games, the 18-19 year old slashed .357/.478/.579, walking 27 times (17.2%) to just 19 strikeouts (12.1%), boosting his stock considerably. Baddoo may have been raw last year, but he is well on his way to reaching his lofty ceiling.
#72 Zac Gallen (MLB.com ranking: 78. Draft position: 106, Cardinals)
My ranking wasn't too far ahead of MLB.com's ranking, but Gallen has been a success despite slipping out of the top 100, so I'll call it a win. He had a solid but unspectacular junior season at UNC (2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 95/21 K/BB in 90.2 innings), relying more on pitchability and smarts than on pure stuff. Cognizant of that pitchability, I liked the stuff just enough to rank him ahead of industry consensus, and he's rewarded me so far. Just like Dakota Hudson, he was drafted by the Cardinals and ended up pitching in AAA by the end of 2017. Through 32 minor league games (29 starts), he is 10-8 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157.1 innings, and he should be one of the first pitchers from his draft class to break into the majors.
#74 Garrett Williams (MLB.com ranking: 154. Draft position: 215, Giants)
This is one I am very proud of. Scouts liked his stuff, but he struggled to stay healthy (31.2 innings in sophomore and junior seasons at Oklahoma State combined) and with his command (30 walks in that span). I was particularly enamored with his stuff, noting an "angled, running fastball, a two-plane curveball that he can mend the shape of, and a fading changeup" (from my 2016 pre-draft notes). I liked his delivery as well, and noted that getting farther from his shoulder injury could help improve his dreadful command, especially as he was on the mound consistently. This all depended on him staying healthy, but so far, he has, and he has thus far justified my extremely optimistic ranking 141 spots higher than he was picked. In 2017, between Class A Augusta and High Class A San Jose in the hitters' paradise California League, Williams went 6-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, striking out 96 to 35 walks in 97 innings. The walk rate is still a bit high, but it has come down significantly from college and I think it will continue to do so. Watch this one.
Biggest Misses I (under-projected)
#7 Nick Senzel (MLB.com ranking: 7. Draft position: 2, Reds)
This isn't that big of a miss considering I ranked Senzel in the same place as MLB.com, but I still underestimated him. His big junior season at Tennessee saw him slash .352/.456/.595 with eight home runs, but I saw him more as a solid third baseman than as a star. I recognized his high floor, but wasn't sold on a ceiling of anything higher than a solid, Chase Headley-type third baseman. However, he has already reached AA and is slashing .315/.393/.514 with 21 home runs in his minor league career, including a .340/.413/.560 line in 57 games at AA Pensacola. He still may not be on track for that Headley comparison, but he's skirting right along his ceiling and could push it higher into the Anthony Rendon range (like Kieboom).
#77 Bo Bichette (MLB.com ranking: 90. Draft position: 66, Blue Jays)
I actually ranked Bichette thirteen spots ahead of MLB.com, but also eleven spots behind where he was taken by the Blue Jays. The talent was evident, as he showed great bat speed and bat control, even if his mechanics were a little wild. However, I, along with most of the teams who picked before the Jays, missed the true potential, as literally everything has gone right for Bichette since draft day. Through 132 games across three levels (22 in the GCL, 70 in Class A, 40 in High Class A), the 19 year old is slashing .372/.427/.591 with 18 home runs, 50 doubles, and 25 stolen bases, including a .323/.379/.463 line at High A this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Despite being ranked 90th in his draft class by MLB.com in June 2016, he is now ranked as the 25th best prospect in all of baseball, and in my opinion, MLB.com is being too conservative yet again.
#117 Austin Hays (MLB.com ranking: 120. Draft position: 91, Orioles)
Again, I had Hays three spots ahead of MLB.com (as you can see, they're not very good prognosticators), but the Orioles recognized offensive ability that I didn't and took him 26 spots higher than I ranked him. I liked his quick swing but I didn't think the power would hold as he moved up, knocking him out of my top 100. As it turns out, his offensive breakout at the University of Jacksonville was no joke, and he has cracked no fewer than 36 minor league home runs over 166 games so far, slashing .330/.370/.576 in the short season New-York Penn League (38 games in 2016), High A Carolina League (64 games in 2017), and AA Eastern League (64 games). He even earned a September promotion to the big leagues, adding a 37th professional home run as the first player from the 2016 draft class to reach the majors.
#148 Bryse Wilson (MLB.com ranking: 144. Draft position: 109, Braves)
I saw nothing particularly special in Wilson, a high schooler from North Carolina, noting an uneven arm path and what I saw as a below-average slider. The Braves loved the arm strength that I merely liked, taking him 39 spots ahead of my ranking, and it has paid off in spades so far. The slider still isn't great, but they cleaned up his arm path and both his velocity and command have held up, helping him put up an excellent season for Class A Rome this year. Over 26 starts, the 19 year old went 10-7 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, striking out 139 and walking 37 in 137 innings. There are still questions as to how he will hold up at the higher levels without that slider, and he may still turn out to be a reliever, but there is certainly talent here that I did not pick up.
Biggest Misses II (over-projected)
#1 Mickey Moniak (MLB.com ranking: 5. Draft position: 1, Phillies)
This one is an interesting case. Moniak had helium throughout the Spring of 2016, starting as a mid-first round candidate before hitting his way into the top ten and ultimately top five consideration. General industry consensus never moved him past the 4-7 range, but he was a personal favorite of mine due to his swing mechanics and makeup, so I aggressively ranked him number one on my draft board well before the Phillies buzz. As it turned out, the Phillies agreed with me, selecting Moniak first overall. They aggressively assigned him to Class A Lakewood this year, and the results were underwhelming to say the least: .236/.284/.341, five home runs, eleven stolen bases in 123 games. He may have been 19 playing in full season ball, but those numbers just don't cut it. Unfortunately, when I saw Lakewood play at Delmarva on my day off work, Moniak was on the bench, and I only got to see one pinch-hitting plate appearance (he grounded out). Moniak is far from a bust, but he'll probably repeat the level in 2018 in hopes of adjusting. I still have high hopes for Moniak being a star outfielder in Philadelphia, but other players such as Forrest Whitley, Nick Senzel, Bo Bichette, and A.J. Puk have moved ahead of him in his draft class.
#15 Buddy Reed (MLB.com ranking: 30. Draft position: 48, Padres)
I remained optimistic on Alec Hansen and Mike Shawaryn when their stock faded, and that worked out, but it didn't work out when I did the same for Buddy Reed. An extremely athletic outfielder who slashed .305/.367/.433 with 18 stolen bases as a sophomore at Florida, he regressed to .262/.362/.395 with 24 stolen bases as a junior, looking lost at the plate and leading many scouts to question his floor. I still liked his athleticism at the time, but looking back, the warning signs were there, as his high sophomore strikeout rate (17.9%) jumped to 20.5% as a junior. In his full season debut with Class A Fort Wayne this year, he put up a disappointing .234/.290/.396 line with six home runs and 12 stolen bases in 88 games, striking out in 28% of his plate appearances. His athleticism could still help him adjust as he moves up, but he certainly hasn't justified a mid-first round ranking and probably never will.
#49 Jake Fraley (MLB.com ranking: 89. Draft position: 77, Rays)
As of draft day, Fraley struck me as a high floor, low ceiling outfielder who would ultimately fall somewhere between a Sam Fuld and a Gerardo Parra, with the overall projection of a starting outfielder with speed but limited pop. He slashed a career best .326/.408/.464 with five home runs and 28 stolen bases as a junior at LSU in 2016, showing a quick swing and an 11.8% walk rate (coupled with a 10.5% strikeout rate) that led me to make that high-floor projection. Unfortunately, injuries have limited his time on the field in pro ball, and in the 85 total games he has seen on the field, he is slashing just .229/.319/.356 with three home runs and 37 stolen bases. He spent 26 games in the High Class A Florida State League in 2017, which turned out to be a miserable failure as he slashed .170/.238/.255 with one home run, one stolen base, three caught stealing's, and a 22.9% strikeout rate to just a 6.7% walk rate. The 22 year old could concievably bounce back when healthy, but he has a lot of catch-up to play and just as much to prove.
#81 Walker Robbins (MLB.com ranking: 93. Draft position: 166, Cardinals)
This one is just a straight miss on my part. Robbins was a country strong power hitter from rural southeastern Mississippi, one who I believed could break out with pro refinement once his swing was cleaned up. Unfortunately, a year and a half later, that hasn't happened. Through 70 pro games (30 in the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2016, 40 in the Appalachian League in 2017), Robbins is slashing just .179/.239/.246 with two home runs and a 79/19 strikeout to walk ratio. That comes out to a 30% strikeout rate, a 7.2% walk rate, and virtually no production. Robbins is still just 19 and has time to right the ship, but at this point he is looking like a long shot.
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