The Twins have one of the game's better farm systems primarily because of two hitters, two former first round picks out of high school, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. However, the Twins do have quite a few interesting players behind them in their hitter-heavy system, including plenty of power. On the mound, they have an abundance of back-end starters and should have no problem with rotation depth in the coming years, with most of their higher-upside arms sitting lower in the minors.
Affiliates: AAA Rochester Red Wings, AA Chattanooga Lookouts*, High A Fort Myers Miracle, Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels, rookie level Elizabethton Twins, and complex level GCL and DSL Twins
*AA affiliate will move from Chattanooga, TN to Pensacola, FL in 2019
The Headliners: SS Royce Lewis and OF Alex Kirilloff
Except for possibly the Blue Jays with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, I'm not sure that any team has a better pair of hitters than the Twins' Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, both of whom were first round picks out of high school in 2017 and 2016, respectively. 19 year old Royce Lewis, the first overall pick of the 2017 draft out of high school in southern California, had a big first full pro season by slashing .292/.352/.451 with 14 home runs, 28 stolen bases, and an 84/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers. While he was much better at the lower level (.315/.368/.485) than the upper level (.255/.327/.399), the fact that he made it to High A barely a month after his 19th birthday and kept his plate discipline steady is a testament to how advanced his bat is at such a young age. Though he's more wiry and speed oriented at 6'2", Lewis has great feel for the barrel and can produce average power even with a more line drive oriented swing. His contact ability is so good for his age that I can see him adding loft down the road and producing above average power to go along with high on-base percentages and stolen base totals, making him a complete threat on the offensive side. Defensively, there are question marks as to whether he will be able to stay at shortstop, though he could likely handle second base well or use his plus speed to be an above average center fielder. Either way, he'll be a net-positive on defense while he hammers away at pro pitching. Meanwhile, 21 year old Alex Kirilloff was taken 15th overall out of a Pittsburgh-area high school in 2016 and after missing 2017 with Tommy John surgery, he came roaring back with one of the best statistical seasons in the minors. Kirilloff slashed .348/.392/.578 with 20 home runs and an 86/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, losing no production between the lower level (.333/.391/.607) and the upper level (.362/.393/.550). Kirilloff, like Lewis, does not get fooled at the plate and actually shows even more present power than Lewis (he hit 44 doubles and seven triples for a total of 71 extra base hits in 2018), and overall will probably produce slightly better offensive numbers than Lewis long term. Of course, Lewis is younger, faster, and provides more value on defense (Kirilloff looks to be an average right fielder), but Kirilloff certainly has a special bat. Look for Lewis and Kirilloff to both hit at the top of the lineup in a few years.
High Minors Pitchers: LHP Stephen Gonsalves, RHP Zack Littell, LHP Lewis Thorpe, RHP Jorge Alcala, and LHP Tyler Wells
While many of the Twins' more exciting arms are down lower in the minors, they do have a good set of back-end starters up close to the majors. 24 year old Stephen Gonsalves has had a long, dominant minor league career (53-20, 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP since 2013), and he may have finally capped it off in 2018 by going 12-3 with a 2.76 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 120/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings at AA Chattanooga and AAA Rochester before posting a 6.57 ERA and a 16/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 24.2 major league innings. Gonsalves is an interesting prospect, as he's a 6'5" lefty who gets by more on deception than stuff, or for that matter, command. He throws in the low 90's and adds a decent curveball, with his changeup being his best pitch, but his command comes and goes. On his best days, he hits his spots and has solid-average command, and on the next he may have no idea where the strike zone is. It's hard to comp him to another pitcher, though Gio Gonzalez makes sense if you leave out the height difference and swap out Gio's great curve for Stephen's great changeup. I can honestly see Gonsalves having a similar career to Gonzalez, and if that were the case, the Twins would take it. 23 year old Zack Littell was a member of the same 2013 draft class, though while Gonsalves was old for the class and turned 19 shortly after draft day, Littell didn't turn 18 until after the 2013 season. After being traded from Seattle to New York for James Pazos in 2016 and from New York to Minnesota for Jaime Garcia in 2017, the North Carolina native posted a 3.98 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 130/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 innings between Chattanooga and rochester in 2018, adding a 6.20 ERA and a 14/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 major league innings. He's a 6'4" right hander who controls his largely average stuff well, giving him back-end projection when it comes to starting in the major leagues. He'll likely be a more consistent starter than Gonsalves, though his ceiling is lower. 23 year old Lewis Thorpe posted a 3.54 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 157/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings at Chattanooga and Rochester in 2018, though unlike Gonsalves and Littell, he did not get a major league trial. The lefty from Melbourne, Australia missed both the 2015 and 2016 seasons with a one-two punch of Tommy John surgery and mono, but he came out of it stronger than before and may be the best prospect in this group. He also throws in the low 90's and adds solid-average stuff, though his command and ability to mix his pitches help everything play up. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, so seeing how he, along with Gonsalves and Littell, manages in the fight for rotation spots in 2019 will be very fun. 24 year old Tyler Wells was just a 15th round pick out of Cal State San Bernardino in 2016 but he has all of our attention after posting a 2.49 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 121/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings between High A Fort Myers and Chattanooga in 2018. The massive, 6'8", 265 pound right hander has average stuff with a deep arsenal (certainly following a trend here), but he uses his height well and commands his pitches even better, enabling him to make hitters look foolish at every stop. Wells is just a bit behind Gonsalves, Littell, and Thorpe on the depth chart, but another good year in the upper minors in 2019 could have him knocking on the door as a potential back end starter. Lastly, 23 year old Jorge Alcala came over from the Astros in the Ryan Pressly trade this season, posting a 3.81 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 104/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.1 innings at High A and AA between the two organizations. While the four pitchers above him on this list have deep arsenals and average fastballs, Alcala sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball while also maintaining a full array of secondary pitches. However, he hasn't put up quite the numbers you would expect given that stuff because his control is very lacking at this point, leading to him falling behind in the count and issuing high numbers of walks. The fact that he still keeps the quality of contact down even when he falls behind in the count is a good sign, because if he was able to improve that command and get his fair share of favorable counts, his stuff could play up and enable him to be an impact starter at the major league level. However, if his control does not sharpen, he runs the risk of ending up in the bullpen, where his fastball could likely push 100.
High Minors Hitters: SS Nick Gordon, OF LaMonte Wade, OF Brent Rooker, OF Luke Raley, and 2B Luis Arraez
The Twins don't have many impact bats up near the majors, but among their best prospects, there is a good mix of different skills. 23 year old Nick Gordon, the fifth overall pick in the 2014 draft out of high school in Orlando, has worked his way through the minors slowly and slashed .248/.298/.355 with seven home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 109/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Rochester this year. He actually hit really well in 42 games at Chattanooga (5 HR, .333/.381/.525) but he hit a major slump upon his promotion to Rochester and slashed just .212/.262/.283 the rest of the way. He plays a decent shortstop and even if he eventually has to move to second base, he profiles as above average there, so his glove and high draft status have bought the bat plenty of time to develop. Set to play all of 2019 at 23 years old, he still has more time, but the prolonged slump in AAA leaves some major question marks as to whether Gordon will ever hit enough to start in the majors. He keeps his strikeouts down, which will help ease his transition to the majors, but other than a few hot streaks here and there, he hasn't really shown much power or gotten on base consistently. If he can find his stroke consistently in 2019, that may point to a future as a starting infielder for the Twins, but he faces a utility projection if he doesn't put it all together this year. 25 year old LaMonte Wade, a sixth round pick out of Maryland in 2015, has had a similar post-draft career arc to Gordon by working his way up through the minors slowly for a college player then having a dichotomous season this year. In 2018, he slashed .257/.360/.380 with 11 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 74/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games between Chattanooga and Rochester, but like Gordon, he hit much better before the promotion (.298/.393/.444) than after (.229/.337/.336). He has no standout tool, but his advanced plate discipline, strong frame, and solid-average outfield defense make him a useful player in a variety of ways. His profile screams fourth outfielder and that's how I think he ends up, and he should be ready to contribute off the bench in 2019. Now-24 year old Brent Rooker rode a huge junior season at Mississippi State (23 HR, 18 SB, .387/.495/.810 against top tier SEC pitching) to a 35th overall selection in the 2017 draft and that power has played up in the minors, as he slashed .254/.333/.465 with 22 home runs and a 150/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Chattanooga in 2018, his first full pro season. His big, quick, powerful swing and 6'3" frame give him plenty of pop, though high strikeout rates hold back his production at this point. Cutting down on that strikeout rate just a little bit and finding the barrel just a little more often could pay huge dividends for him, and he has arguably the highest ceiling in this group even at 24 years old. Of course, a 24 year old cutting his strikeout rate at the highest levels is far from a given, and his mediocre outfield defense does put all of the pressure on his bat. I would really like to see Rooker succeed and put up big home run totals in the majors, but we'll have to see how he handles AAA first after Gordon and Wade struggled there. 24 year old Luke Raley came over from the Dodgers in the Brian Dozier trade and like Rooker, he puts up big power numbers, slashing .275/.350/.471 with 20 home runs and a 137/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AA. Raley's raw power isn't quite as impressive as Rooker's, but he has a slightly better feel for the barrel which enables him to get to it just as often as Rooker does, at least for now. His good outfield defense also boosts his value, though his power/contact combination might be just a hair too light to start in the majors and he looks like more of a platoon bat at this point. Lastly, 21 year old Luis Arraez is the youngest player in this section, coming off a 2018 where he slashed .310/.361/.397 with three home runs and a 44/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at High A Fort Myers and Chattanooga. Listed at 5'10" and just 155 pounds, Arraez will never be mistaken for a power hitter, but his exceptional bat-to-ball skills give evaluators little worry that he'll be able to handle higher level pitching as he moves up. At this point, he is able to spray line drives all over the field with ease and that primarily helped him push his on-base percentage to .361 in 2018, but becoming more patient at the plate and increasing his walk rate will be helpful in keeping those on-base percentages high as he moves up. Defensively, he plays a decent second base but may be pushed to the outfield, though his contact ability will enable him to reach the majors regardless of his defensive role, even if it's just in a reserve role.
Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Brusdar Graterol, LHP Charlie Barnes, RHP Blayne Enlow, RHP Jordan Balazovic, RHP Jhoan Duran, and RHP Griffin Jax
The team's best pitching prospects reside lower in the minor leagues, with plenty of exciting arms and lots of upside. 20 year old Brusdar Graterol leads not only this group, but the whole Twins system as the team's consensus best pitching prospect. The 6'1" righty had a dominant year in A ball by posting a 2.74 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 107/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers, continuing to put up great numbers even after the promotion. He already throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a full arsenal that is still developing, though his slider already stands out as a potential out pitch and his command is developing nicely. On the to-do list for 2019 will be further sharpening his secondary pitches, and if he can do that successfully, he has top of the rotation potential. 20 year old pitchers always carry some level of risk, but Graterol's upside and chances of reaching it are both high. 23 year old Charlie Barnes is a very different pitcher from Graterol, riding a fourth round selection out of Clemson in 2017 to a successful first full season in 2018, posting a 2.81 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an 84/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings at Fort Myers. The 6'2" lefty doesn't throw all that hard with a fastball right around 90, but he adds a full arsenal and commands and mixes everything very well, helping his average stuff play up and enabling him to successfully handle High A within a year after being drafted. He has #5 starter upside. Moving down a level, 19 year old Blayne Enlow is a 6'3" righty with high upside, and he posted a 3.26 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 71/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings at Cedar Rapids in 2018. He throws in the low 90's but is projectable enough to easily envision more velocity, and his curveball is among the best in the Twins' system. His command is coming along nicely, though he was a little bit more hittable than you would think in 2018. Look for an uptick in his strikeout rate in 2019, which could signal a breakout and put him on the fast track to being a #2 starter, but for now the Twins are happy with his development and he'll turn 20 just before the start of the season. 20 year old Jordan Balazovic is more of a sleeper prospect as he has slowly worked his way through the low minors, posting a 3.94 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 78/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings at Cedar Rapids in 2018. The 6'4" Canadian righty is extremely projectable and already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and his secondary pitches and command are both coming along. The command was his biggest step forward in 2018, and like the more well-known Enlow, Balazovic is a breakout candidate for 2019 with a mid-rotation ceiling. 21 year old Jhoan Duran came over from the Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar trade, posting a 3.75 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 115/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings between the two teams' Class A affiliates. His upside is tremendous given his mid 90's fastball and 6'5" frame, though the rest of his game needs work. The curveball is coming along and his command is getting close to average, though either his secondaries or that command will need to take another step forward if he wants to remain a starter. Otherwise, he could be very effective as a late-inning reliever. Lastly, we have 24 year old Griffin Jax, who will have perhaps the least linear path to the major leagues in this system. In 2018, he posted a 3.70 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 66/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 87.2 innings at Fort Myers, but that's only part of the story. Jax is an Air Force Academy graduate who must serve two years of active duty in the Air Force, though he earned a temporary exemption from 2018-2020 through the World Class Athletes program. He throws a low 90's fastball with a curveball and a slider, commanding it all well and coming with solid #4 starter upside. However, Jax isn't out of the woods yet when it comes to military service time, so we'll have to wait and see how the Twins and the Department of Defense handle him going forward.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Ernie De La Trinidad, 2B Jose Miranda, OF Akil Baddoo, OF Trevor Larnach, C Ryan Jeffers, OF Gilberto Celestino, and SS Wander Javier
The Twins looked to be very deep with their mid minors hitting prospects, especially after big seasons from Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, but disappointing seasons from guys like Lewin Diaz, Ben Rortvedt, Travis Blankenhorn, and Andrew Bechtold, as well as a lost season for the injured Wander Javier, have left the non-Lewis/Kirilloff group looking less impactful than it was before the season. One addition that helps mitigate that a little bit is 23 year old Ernie De La Trinidad, who came over from the Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar trade. De La Trinidad mashed in his first full season out of UNLV, slashing .309/.394/.424 with nine home runs and a 65/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games between the Diamondbacks' Class A affiliate and High A Fort Myers. He packs a lot of punch for a skinny, 5'9" outfielder, but his very good plate discipline helps him find the barrel more often than not and subsequently makes him an above average hitter. With his decent outfield defense, De La Trinidad looks like a solid fourth outfielder down the road. 20 year old Jose Miranda had a big year at the plate, slashing .264/.319/.417 with 16 home runs and a 62/31 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, showing some power as well as excellent contact ability. He could use a few more walks if he wants a chance at starting down the road, but the innate ability to get his pitch and do damage with it will help ease his transitions into the higher minors. Defensively, he's just okay at second base and has been moved around the field, so while the glove won't be buying the bat any slack, at least he's versatile. 20 year old Akil Baddoo is one of my favorite players in this system, and he built off a breakout 2017 season by slashing .243/.351/.419 with 11 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 124/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at Cedar Rapids. Baddoo was very raw when the Twins drafted him in the competitive balance round (74th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2016, and while he has made strides at the plate, that rawness still shows in his numbers. He's exceptionally patient and draws a ton of walks, which in turn enables him to use his plus speed to steal more bases, and as his swing has improved, he has been adding power. He'll likely never be a 25 homer guy at 5'11", but if he can further streamline his swing and continue to improve his pitch recognition, he could become the complete package at the plate with moderate power, high on-base percentages, and lots of stolen bases. Defensively, he's still learning to use his speed effectively, but he's a center fielder for now and would be above average if he were forced to move to left. I'll be watching his transition to High A in 2019 very closely. 21 year old Trevor Larnach was drafted 20th overall out of Oregon State in 2018, and after he and the Beavers won the College World Series, he slashed .303/.390/.500 with five home runs and a 28/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games at rookie level Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. He has an excellent bat that shows both power and on-base ability, with his advanced approach helping him limit strikeouts and take walks when they're given to him. While he doesn't have light tower power like Brent Rooker, the 6'4" outfielder regularly barrels the ball up and produced high exit velocities in college, giving him a projection of 25 home runs per season or more with high on-base percentages. His outfield defense is fairly mediocre, but that doesn't matter because he has plenty of bat to make up for it. 21 year old Ryan Jeffers was drafted right after Larnach in the second round (59th overall) out of UNC-Wilmington, and he absolutely mashed in his pro debut with a .344/.444/.502 slash line, seven home runs, and a 46/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. The huge debut erases any pre-draft concerns about his track record with wood bats, as the 6'4" catcher showed plenty of both power and plate discipline. He's decent defensively with the chance to stick behind the plate but no guarantee, but if he remains a catcher up to the major league level, he could be a rare bat-first MLB catcher. With another big year in 2019, he'll pass Ben Rortvedt on the depth chart and establish himself as the team's catcher of the future. 19 year old Gilberto Celestino came over with Jorge Alcala in the Ryan Pressly trade, and he slashed .287/.341/.406 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 46/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in rookie ball and short season ball (plus eight fruitless at bats in AA) between the two teams. He's hit over power at the plate with the chance to develop more of the latter, but at this point, his speed and great defense in center field carry him as a prospect. The glove will buy his bat plenty of time to mature, and with his 20th birthday coming up, it's not like he's in any rush anyways. Improving his plate discipline could make Celestino a future leadoff man, and we'll see how the bat, which is already fairly advanced for his age, translates to full season ball in 2019. Lastly, we have 20 year old Wander Javier, who missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury. Back in 2017, he slashed .299/.383/.471 as an 18 year old in the rookie level Appalachian League, and when you combine that natural line drive bat with the potential to stick at shortstop, you have a very good prospect on your hands. There could be more power to come in his 6'1" frame, and with his natural contact ability, he has the chance to be an impact player on both offense and defense. However, we'll first have to see how he returns from his injury before we go on labelling him a "top prospect." He'll be another interesting bat to watch in 2019.
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