In my opinion, this is the best system in the minors – the Padres might have an argument if Brendan McKay had thrown one more inning in the majors, but he sits at 49 heading in 2020, keeping him technically a rookie. This system is just so deep everywhere you look, and I think that starts with the infield. Wander Franco is just 18 years old and already tackled High A with flying colors, making him arguably the best prospect in baseball at any position, while guys like Vidal Brujan, Xavier Edwards, and Greg Jones all have star potential as well. The outfield doesn't have any of those true stud prospects, but Josh Lowe and Randy Arozarena lead a deep group that's bound to have more than a few guys pan out. On the mound, McKay and the long-injured Brent Honeywell are major league ready arms with ace upside, while guys like Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, JJ Goss, Seth Johnson, and Resly Linares ooze with upside as well. Behind them, there's a whole group of less well-known arms that broke out in 2019, most notably Joe Ryan, Tommy Romero, and Michael Plassmeyer. The amount of talent here is just unreal.
Affiliates: AAA Durham Bulls, AA Montgomery Biscuits, High A Charlotte Stone Crabs, short season Hudson Valley Renegades, rookie level Princeton Rays, complex level GCL and DSL Rays
Catcher
- Ronaldo Hernandez (2020 Age: 22): Hernandez has hit his way up through the minors, including knocking 21 home runs in 2018, though the pitcher-friendly Florida State League might have sapped his offense a bit as he slashed .265/.299/.397 with nine home runs and a 65/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at High A Charlotte. He has high upside at the plate, given his great ability to make contact and his explosive right handed swing. He gets the ball in the air, but he does need to add actual loft to his swing rather than just hitting the bottom of the ball to tap his power more often against advanced pitching. He's young enough to make those adjustments, and certainly talented enough given that he's so adept at making contact and maintains such an explosive swing. Defensively, he has a strong arm and is otherwise capable behind the plate, taking some pressure off his bat (not that it needs to be off), and overall he has the ceiling of a starting catcher who can hit 20-25 home runs per season. He'll just need to shake off an up and down 2019.
- Brett Sullivan (2020 Age: 26): Sullivan was a 17th round pick out of Pacific in 2015, but he's hit at every stop along the way in the minors and now looks like a nice backup option in the near future. In 2019, he slashed .280/.333/.459 with ten home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 48/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at AA Montgomery, showing a power/patience/speed combination you don't typically see in a catcher. He's got some nice power from the left side, and he manages the strike zone extremely well and is tough to strike out, which has helped his power play up. Defensively, he's decent behind the plate but is also athletic enough to handle almost any position on the field except shortstop and of obviously pitcher. The Rays won't let him hold back Hernandez, who is easily the superior prospect, but Sullivan has the chance to hit his way onto the major league club as a versatile C/IF/OF super-utility type with some power.
- Keep an eye on: Rene Pinto, Chris Betts
Corner Infield
- Brendan McKay (2020 Age: 24): I'm going to list McKay twice. Drafted as the fourth overall pick out of Louisville in 2017, McKay's arm is ahead of his bat at this point, as he slashed just .200/.298/.331 with five home runs and a 51/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham. Additionally, he homered and singled in ten at bats in the majors, striking out twice and walking once. He generates plus power from a leveraged left handed swing, and he's controlled the strike zone exceptionally well throughout his career until he reached the upper minors in 2019. However, he hasn't quite gotten to that power as much as he would have liked to in pro ball, as he's hit too many ground balls to truly tap it. I'm sure that could easily be remedied if he gave up pitching and focused on hitting. Of course, given that he's a better pitcher than hitter, that won't happen, nor should it. I wouldn't expect him to hit like Shohei Ohtani in the majors, but he could be a nice bench or platoon bat that only has to worry about staying fresh against right handed pitchers. Or, it might just be time that he needs instead of specialized focus, and he could end up as a legitimate high on-base power hitter. I'd expect the former projection though for the DH.
- Kevin Padlo (2020 Age: 23-24): Padlo was a Rockies' fifth round pick out of a Southern California high school back in 2014, and he came over to the Rays in the Jake McGee/Corey Dickerson trade in 2016. He broke out offensively in 2019, slashing .265/.389/.538 with 21 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 116/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham, which is huge given that he's a corner infielder who needs to hit to provide value. Padlo has the power to hit the ball out of any park and the patience to draw plenty of walks and get his pitch to hit, though he also has some swing and miss in his game that makes it difficult for him to profile as a long term starter at first or third base. The Rays don't have any true roadblocks at either of those positions, but they also have a lot of depth that might make it difficult to break through. He does crush left handed pitching, which on a team like the Rays that loves to mix and match, might actually be better for his overall outlook than if he hit both lefties and righties equally.
- Keep an eye on: Jim Haley, Dalton Kelly, Jake Guenther
Middle Infield
- Wander Franco (2020 Age: 19): I typically go in order from top of the minors to bottom, but being that Franco is the second coming of Fernando Tatis Jr. and likely the top prospect in baseball, he'll earn the first spot in the middle infield section even from A ball. Franco was signed out of the Dominican Republic for $3.8 million in 2017, and that's already looking like an absolute bargain. He tore up the rookie level Appalachian League to the tune of a .351/.418/.587 line in 2018 at an age when most Dominican signees are still on the island, then in 2019, he slashed .327/.398/.487 with nine home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 35/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte. Franco has top of the scale plate discipline that has enabled him to walk significantly more than he's struck out at every level despite being significantly younger than his competition the whole time, and his elite feel for the barrel enables him to make hard contact in virtually every at bat. For now, he's more of a line drive hitter, but he played the entire 2019 season at just 18 years old and his explosive hands and bat make it easy to project him for at least above average power if not better. Defensively, he has a strong arm but it's unclear where he'll end up in the infield, but given that he's just a teenager, he does have plenty of time to refine his actions at shortstop. Overall, that's about as complete of a skill set as you can have for a teenager, and it's easy to project him as hitting anywhere from 15 to 30 home runs per season with on-base percentages north of .400 and some stolen bases to boot. He probably starts 2020 in AA, but if he hits as expected, there's a non-zero chance he could force his way onto the big league roster by the end of the season.
- Vidal Brujan (2020 Age: 22): While Franco deservedly gets most of the hype as the potential shortstop of the future, but Vidal Brujan gives the Rays another elite middle infield prospect coming through the ranks. Listed at just 5'9" and 155 pounds, he's a little guy who originally signed for a paltry $15,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2014, but his combination of speed and feel for the barrel has slowly pushed him to the national prospect discussion. In 2019, Brujan slashed .277/.346/.389 with four home runs, 48 stolen bases, and a 61/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at High A Charlotte and AA Montgomery, giving him 103 stolen bases over the past two seasons and putting him within arm's reach of the majors. He employs an extremely quick bat and great feel for the barrel from the left side, enabling him to hit for high averages, avoid strikeouts, and most importantly, get the ball in play so he can get the most out of his elite speed. He's not much of a power hitter and never will be, but he has enough strength to be an extra base threat who can drop the ball into the gap and run wild on the bases. Defensively, he's a little small for shortstop but he plays a very good second base, and he could hit his way into a starting role by the end of 2020. Overall, that's the upside of 5-10 home runs per season, high on-base percentages, and a ton of stolen bases with good defense.
- Taylor Walls (2020 Age: 23-24): Walls grew up in southern Georgia, but as a 2017 third round pick out of Florida State, he earns the title of a semi-hometown player. He hit well against younger competition in 2018 (.304/.393/.428 in Class A) before a more challenging assignment in 2019, where he slashed .270/.343/.452 with ten home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 79/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games at High A Charlotte and AA Montgomery. Originally much more of a pure contact hitter in college and in Class A, he originally struggled with swing and miss when trying to hit for power but the Rays have helped him change that and become more of a complete hitter. Walls retains the strong plate discipline he's always had, though he's begun to lift the ball more and successfully tap some extra base and home run power without sacrificing his on-base percentage. Overall, it's a little bit too light of an offensive package to profile as a starter, especially with Franco and Brujan in this organization, but his defensive versatility gives him a good shot at becoming a very useful utility infielder in the near future.
- Lucius Fox (2020 Age: 22-23): Fox originally signed with the Giants for $6 million out of the Bahamas in 2015, then came over in the Matt Moore trade in 2016. However, his bat has failed to materialize at this point, and in 2019 he slashed .221/.331/.327 with three home runs, 39 stolen bases, and a 104/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham. He's a very patient hitter than can draw walks, after which he can use his elite speed to steal a bunch of bases, including at least 25 in each of the past four seasons and 123 in total. He has good bat to ball skills, though to this point he's failed to hit for any kind of impact and likely won't ever hit enough to start full time. Given his speed and his great infield defense, he does profile well as a quality utility infielder who can control the strike zone and steal a bunch of bases. Fox also comes with some upside if he can make more hard contact.
- Xavier Edwards (2020 Age: 20-21): Originally a Padres' 2018 competitive balance pick out of high school in Broward County, Edwards was sent back home to Florida in the Tommy Pham deal this offseason and gives the Rays another big time middle infield prospect. He proved to be remarkably advanced in his first full season, slashing .322/.375/.396 with a home run, 34 stolen bases, and a 54/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games between Class A and High A, showing exceptional feel for the barrel and the strike zone along the way. At a skinny 5'10", it's hard to project him for much power, but Edwards makes such easy, consistent, hard contact that he should hit plenty of doubles and triples that can be stretched with his elite speed. Originally a 50/50 shortstop who may have to move to second base, he's improved and now looks like he'll be able to remain at short, as his range helps him make up for an average arm. Together, I'd project him as a starting shortstop in most organizations, though he'll probably have to either push Wander Franco over to third base or out-hit Vidal Brujan to start in this one. I think it's doable, with the former outcome more likely.
- Greg Jones (2020 Age: 22): Jones is an interesting one. A well regarded prospect coming out of a Raleigh-area high school in 2017, he instead opted to attend UNC Wilmington, where he was eligible as a sophomore because he was a year old for his class. Originally viewed as more of a second or third rounder, he got hot late in the spring and shot up draft boards at the last second, landing with the Rays at pick #22 in the first round of 2019. He continued his hot hitting in pro ball, slashing .335/.413/.461 with one home run, 19 stolen bases, and a 56/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games at short season Hudson Valley. He still has a fair amount of swing and miss in his game, but it's been decreasing and he's been finding the barrel more and more consistently. There's not a ton of home run power unless he beefs up a little bit and changes his approach, but he has the exceptional speed to profile well as a high on-base guy who hits 5-15 home runs per season. Defensively, there are questions as to whether he'll stick at shortstop, especially given all the talent there in this organization, but he could end up an above average center fielder with that elite speed.
- Keep an eye on: Miles Mastrobuoni, Tristan Gray, Tyler Frank, Zach Rutherford, Ford Proctor, Nick Sogard, Alejandro Pie
Outfield
- Randy Arozarena (2020 Age: 25): *Copied from the Cardinals' system review, as Arozarena came over in the Tommy Pham deal:* "Arozarena was a highly touted Cuban import who signed for $1.25 million in in 2016, then broke out in upper minors in 2019. This year, he slashed .344/.431/.571 with 15 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 71/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, then hit .300/.391/.500 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a 19 game debut with the Cardinals. At 5'11", he doesn't have a ton of raw pop, but he knows how to get to it and has hit double digit home runs all three years in the minors. That's more due to his feel for the barrel, which has enabled him to limit his strikeouts and consistently make hard contact, leading to high batting averages, albeit without a ton of walks." The Rays like to mix and match a lot of their players, which will give Arozarena the chance to compete for a major league role right away, and in all he projects for about 15 home runs per season, a few stolen bases, and solid, batting average-driven on-base percentages.
- Josh Lowe (2020 Age: 22): The younger brother of current Rays first baseman Nate Lowe, Josh was a first round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school back in 2016 but took some time to get things figured out in pro ball. After slashing just .238/.322/.361 in High A in 2018, he broke out with a strong .252/.341/.442 line as well as 18 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 132/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at AA Montgomery in 2019. Always a great athlete, he's struggled to find the barrel consistently and hit for impact in pro ball, and it took until 2019 for him to start to change that. He still comes in with great speed and defense, which in addition to his draft stock, buys his bat time, and if he can continue to tap that power in 2020 and beyond, he could be a fringe starter. The next step will probably be cutting down on some of his swing and miss, but he's in a better spot this year than he was last year. The Rays are still hoping they have their center fielder of the future, but a career as a fourth outfielder remains a distinct possibility.
- Moises Gomez (2020 Age: 21): Gomez is a very high ceiling, low floor type who could really turn out to be something special. Signed for just $40,000 out of Venezuela in 2015, he put himself on the map with a huge 2018 (19 HR, .280/.328/.503 in Class A) before struggling in 2019 with a .220/.297/.402 slash line, 16 home runs, and a 164/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Charlotte. Though he's just 5'10", he packs a lot of strength into his shorter frame which in turn generates a lot of raw power from the right side, which he has gotten to consistently. However, he struggles with contact, often chasing breaking balls out of the zone and racking up high strikeout totals. The good news is he's still young, only having turned 21 at the end of the 2019 season, with plenty of time to refine his approach. He has the chance to become a 20-30 home run bat, but there's also a good chance he ends up as a fourth outfielder or a platoon guy if pitchers can keep exploiting his approach.
- Cal Stevenson (2020 Age: 23): *Copied from the Astros system review after Stevenson was traded for Austin Pruitt:* Stevenson was a tenth round pick out of Arizona by the Blue Jays in 2018, then hit a sensational .369/.511/.523 with 21 stolen bases in his pro debut. He skipped Class A entirely and was traded to the Astros as part of the mid-season Derek Fisher/Aaron Sanchez deal, slashing .288/.388/.384 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 65/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between the two High A affiliates. He manages the strike zone exceptionally well, perhaps better than any hitter in this system, and that enables him to be an on-base machine day in and day out. He lacks impact at the plate, which is why is on-base skills are so critical, but his feel for the strike zone helps him find the barrel more often than not and hit for high averages. Stevenson is also a strong defender in center field and can steal a base, giving him a fourth outfielder projection.
- Niko Hulsizer (2020 Age: 23): Niko Hulsizer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers at Morehead State, which is one of the most hitter-friendly venues in college baseball, including knocking 27 home runs in just 59 games as a sophomore in 2017. He made some adjustments as a sophomore to become a more complete hitter and landed in the 18th round with the Dodgers, then came over to the Rays for Adam Kolarek in 2019. Between the two organizations, he slashed .258/.366/.525 with 21 home runs and a 123/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games between Class A, High A, and some complex level rehab work, showing off his big raw power as well as significant swing and miss. There's no question about who Hulsizer is as a hitter, as his explosive, all out right handed swing can make the ball jump off his bat in ways typically reserved for those blue chip prospects. He's also a patient hitter who is more than willing to draw a walk, a trait which has helped his power play up against pro pitching. He'll need to cut down on his swing and miss going forward, but Hulsizer is already looking like a late round gem and he could work his way up as a power hitting bench bat.
- Tanner Dodson (2020 Age: 22-23): Dodson was a two way player at California, and one year after selecting Brendan McKay out of Louisville, the Rays grabbed Dodson in the second competitive balance round in 2018 and sent him out playing both ways. Strictly talking about his hitting here, he was successful in his pro debut, slashing .273/.344/.369 in 49 games, but he was hurt for most of 2019 and hit just .250/.286/.350 with a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games at High A Charlotte. Unless he were to give up pitching, which I see as less likely than the hitting, it's hard for me to see him developing into an impact hitter, but he does control the strike zone very well with strong bat to ball skills and good speed, so a fourth outfield profile fits really well. The switch hitter also carries his strong pitching arm to the outfield, which makes him above average out there, and I think he can remain a hitter up to the majors while he pitches.
- Nick Schnell (2020 Age: 20): Schnell was a compensation pick out of an Indianapolis-area high school in 2018, though he didn't quite break out in his first full pro season as optimistically hoped, slashing .265/.325/.448 with five home runs and an 84/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, at rookie level Princeton, and at Class A Bowling Green. It's not the worst thing in the world that Schnell came away from the season with just five home runs, as he was considered a bit raw anyways, as are most Midwestern high school kids. The Rays are no stranger to developing projects, and the hope is that they can revamp his approach at the plate to help him tap his considerable raw power more often, as swing and miss was a significant issue this past year. The good news is that he hit the ball hard when he did make contact, adding 14 doubles and six triples in those 55 games, and he's a good runner and a solid defender that isn't just a one dimensional player. He retains his significant upside, but it might take a bit of time and some luck to get there.
- Keep an eye on: Ryan Boldt, Carl Chester, Izzy Wilson, Garrett Whitley, Ruben Cardenas, Grant Witherspoon, Shane Sasaki
Starting Pitching
- Brendan McKay (2020 Age: 24): Look who's back, it's Brendan McKay from the corner infield section (though technically he's a DH). The 2017 fourth overall pick out of Louisville projects much better on the mound at this point, and in 2019 he posted a 1.10 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 102/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham, as well as a 5.14 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 56/16 strikeout to walk ratio in 49 major league innings. Because the major league rookie qualifier is 50 innings, McKay technically remains a prospect. He's an extreme pitchability left hander that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which he can morph into a cutter, and he adds a power curve and a changeup to go with them. Nothing really stands out as plus on its own, except potentially his curve when he stays on top of it really well, but he commands everything masterfully and, just as importantly, knows how to use his pitches to play off each other. Sometimes it's hard to project a pitchability guy like McKay as an ace, but you really never know given just how masterful he is at deploying his stuff, and it's quality stuff at that. I'd probably peg him as a number two long term.
- Brent Honeywell (2020 Age: 25): Honeywell was an elite prospect that was supposed to make an impact on the Rays' 2018 rotation right out of the gate, so while it's disappointing that we're still writing about him as a prospect here after the 2019 season, he retains his high upside. A competitive balance pick out of the Tennessee community college ranks in 2014, he dominated his way through the minors and by 2017 he had a career 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 458/93 strikeout to walk ratio over 416 innings. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 season, then a major setback in his rehab knocked out his 2019 season as well. He has as deep an arsenal as any player in the minors, coming in with five pitches led by a low to mid 90's fastball and an excellent screwball that just keeps dropping and dropping. His slider has some nice, late bite, his changeup adds excellent fade, and he can toss in a curveball as well. Honeywell's command was really good before the injuries, but unfortunately it's hard to say with confidence what it will look like when he returns. Overall, he has ace upside if he returns like the pitcher he was in 2017, with the ability to make the baseball move in virtually any direction while commanding it.
- Shane McClanahan (2020 Age: 23): Not only is McClanahan one of the top pitching prospects in a deep system, he's also a hometown guy. After graduating from Cape Coral High School down near Fort Myers, he attended USF and ended up getting picked in the compensation round in 2018. He looked excellent in his brief pro debut that year (seven shutout innings, 13 K's), then continued the great pitching into 2019 with a 3.36 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 154/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings at Class A Bowling Green, High A Charlotte, and AA Montgomery. It's been really interesting to watch his progression since Tommy John surgery wiped out his freshman season in 2016, as he was more of a thrower than a pitcher in college that relied on his mid to upper 90's fastball. His rawness was apparent at the start of the 2019 season, as he had a 3.40 ERA and a 74/31 strikeout to walk ratio against younger competition in Class A, but he took off with the promotion to High A with a 1.46 ERA and a 59/8 strikeout to walk ratio. The difference was in the command, as for the first time in his career, McClanahan was able to locate his pitches and make them play up and off each other rather than just saying "here's 100, hit it." He now sits in the low to mid 90's but can hit the upper 90's if he wants, adding an improving slider as well as a very good changeup that can play well off his fastball. If the gains he made with his command are sustained, he could be average or better in that regard, as well. He has less relief risk than he did a year ago, now with the chance to become a #2 starter if he can sharpen his breaking ball a bit more or improve his command a bit further. At present, though, he's still got some work to do and looks more like a #4 or a power reliever.
- Joe Ryan (2020 Age: 23-24): A seventh round senior sign out of Cal State Stanislaus in 2018, Ryan turned in one of the best pitching performances of any minor leaguer in 2019 and emerged as a true rotation prospect. After a nice 3.72 ERA and 51/14 strikeout to walk ratio in his pro debut, he came out in 2019 with a 1.96 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 183/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.2 innings at Class A Bowling Green, High A Charlotte, and AA Montgomery, the 183 strikeouts finishing second to only Kris Bubic's (Royals) 185. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a big, looping curveball with a lot of downward movement as well as a changeup, whileh is command has taken a big step forward in pro ball. That command is key, because it's enabled him to locate his pitches and make them play really well off each other, and it (in addition to a velocity bump) is what turned him from an unremarkable senior sign to the minors' #2 strikeout guy. Going forward, he'll need to refine his changeup a bit more, but he has the chance to be a #4 starter in Tampa.
- Tommy Romero (2020 Age: 22-23): Romero has flown a bit under the radar amid impressive pitching performances from bigger name prospects, but the Mariners' 15th round pick in 2017, who came over in the Alex Colome/Denard Span deal, has also been lights out. He's another Floridian who grew up in the Fort Lauderdale area before attending Eastern Florida State, and in 2019 he put up a 2.15 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 104/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings at High A Charlotte as well as one start at AA Montgomery. He's a 6'2" righty with average stuff, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding a curve, slider, and changeup, but he gets good extension on his pitches that helps them play up in addition to good command. He's likely more of a #4 or #5 starter, especially in this system, but you can't argue with the dominance he's had and we'll see how he handles the upper minors in 2020.
- Michael Plassmeyer (2020 Age: 23): Plassmeyer was a fourth round pick by the Mariners out of Missouri in 2018, then came over in the Mike Zunino/Mallex Smith deal after the season. 2019 was a breakthrough year, as he posted a 1.91 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 109/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings at Class A Bowling Green, High A Charlotte, and AAA Durham, making him one of quite a few Rays arms with sub-2.50 ERA's. He's seen a slight velocity bump in pro ball, now sitting just above 90, and it plays up from his three quarters arm slot. That slot also gives him a good, two-plane diving curveball, as well as a nice fading changeup, and he hits his spots very well. He doesn't have the highest upside in the system, but he has a good shot at being a #4 or #5 starter in the relatively near future.
- Shane Baz (2020 Age: 20-21): Baz was the Pirates' first round pick out of a Houston-area high school in 2017, then came over to the Rays as the player to be named later in the Chris Archer deal. Brought along slowly, he finally reached full season ball in 2019 and was successful, posting a 2.99 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an 87/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings at Class A Bowling Green. He came into pro ball with a deep, five pitch arsenal, but the Pirates and Rays have refined him down to three, as he now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding a great, sharp slider and a good changeup. The command has been a tick below what was originally expected, but given that he was already young for a high school draftee anyways, I don't think the Rays are overly worried about it at this point. He retains a high baseball IQ that will enable his stuff to consistently play up, and while he's been brought along cautiously so far, we have to expect the kid gloves will come off soon and he could start to race towards the majors as a potential future top of the rotation guy. He just has to improve that command back to average or a tick above.
- Drew Strotman (2020 Age: 23): Strotman was a fourth round pick out of St. Mary's in 2017, and his pro career got off to a hot start before he went down with Tommy John surgery in 2018. He returned late in 2019 to post a 4.50 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 24/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings between rehab work in the complex level Gulf Coast League and High A Charlotte, which was successful just in the fact that he was able to get on the mound. He's more of a back-end starter than a high ceiling prospect, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a slider, curve, and changeup, and he does a good job of throwing strikes with all of his pitches. Durability is the key here, but with a sturdy 6'3" build and with all the guys who have gotten Tommy John, I wouldn't call it a huge issue just yet. Look for him to move quickly once he's healthy.
- Resly Linares (2020 Age: 22): The Rays have brought Linares along slowly, and a season ending forearm strain in his second start of 2019 slowed that down even further. He's a projectable 6'2" with easy low 90's velocity and a nice, sharp curve, as well as a changeup, and he commands everything decently well. He has all the building blocks to become an impact #3 starter, but coming back and proving he's healthy in 2020 will be the first step. I liked Linares coming into the season and I still do, and the injury just makes him more of a sleeper than a big name prospect.
- John Doxakis (2020 Age: 21): Doxakis was a second round pick out of Texas A&M in 2019, and after dominating the SEC, he posted a 1.93 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 31/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings at short season Hudson Valley. Despite standing 6'4", he only throws about 90, adding a good slider and a changeup. What makes him so good is the deception in his delivery in addition to his command, causing all of his pitches to play up. There's also the chance that the Rays can add a tick or two to his velocity and get him consistently into the low 90's, which would help raise his ceiling from the current #4 or #5 starter he's projected as. Either way, he'll likely move quickly as someone who understands pitching and how to get hitters out.
- Seth Johnson (2020 Age: 21): Johnson was a light hitting infielder in the North Carolina junior college ranks, then a switch to the mound changed his career. Transferring to Campbell, he opened eyes immediately with his talented arm, and by the end of his first season as a pitcher in 2019 he was a competitive balance. In his pro debut, he put up a 2.12 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 16/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings between the complex level Gulf Coast League and rookie level Princeton, setting himself up to hopefully take another big step forward in 2020. Johnson sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of inconsistent secondary pitches, though with additional refinement, he could have multiple weapons at his disposal. He also does a good job of throwing strikes, which is a big boon for someone new to pitching, and the Rays are buying his fresh arm and advanced feel for spinning a breaking ball. He's an upside pick, not a safety pick, and he'll probably take some time to develop.
- JJ Goss (2020 Age: 19): Goss was a Rays' competitive balance pick out of a Houston-area high school in 2019, then posted a 5.82 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 16/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League. He's 6'3" righty that checks all the boxes you want to see in a young pitcher, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a very good slider and a fairly advanced changeup with a loose, projectable arm. He also does a good job of throwing strikes for his age, and together that gives him a very favorable projection as a #2 or a #3 starter with less risk than the typical high school arm. I really like this selection at #36 overall, especially considering the Rays didn't have to go above slot, and he could move fairly quickly for a teenager.
- Keep an eye on: Sam McWilliams, Paul Campbell, Faustino Carrera, Austin Franklin, Easton McGee, Zack Trageton, Ben Brecht, Evan McKendry, Taj Bradley, Sandy Gaston
Relief Pitching
- Peter Fairbanks (2020 Age: 26): A ninth round pick out of Missouri in 2015 who missed all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, Fairbanks is an older prospect who came over from the Rangers for Nick Solak in 2019. Between the two organizations, he had a 4.53 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 70/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.2 innings at High A, AA, and AAA, and he also put up a 6.86 ERA and a 28/10 strikeout to walk ratio across 21 major league innings. He has extremely short arm action but still throws in the mid to upper 90's, adding a hard downer slider that stands out more for its velocity than its movement. The 6'6" righty is unlikely to end up a closer considering his fringe-average command as well as the lack of a true plus breaking ball, but the velocity should help him be a valuable bullpen piece out of the gate in 2020.
- Phoenix Sanders (2020 Age: 24-25): Sanders is a hometown guy, as he grew up in Gainesville before attending USF and getting drafted in the tenth round as a senior in 2017, one round before his teammate Shane McClanahan joined the Rays organization. In 2019, he reached the upper minors and posted a 1.92 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 68/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham, putting him on the doorstep of pitching for his hometown team. He's a smaller guy at 5'10", sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a really nice breaking ball with late movement as well as a changeup. He also does a good job of throwing strikes, though he profiles more as a middle reliever than as a set-up man or a closer.
- Riley O'Brien (2020 Age: 25): A money saving senior sign, O'Brien was an eighth round pick out of the College of Idaho in 2017 but has just been getting guys out since he had a velocity bump in pro ball. In 2019, O'Brien put up a 3.16 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings at High A Charlotte and AA Montgomery, mostly on the power of a wicked slider. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but it's that slider that really helps him pick up a ton of swings and misses in any count. He also throws in a changeup, but his command is below average and that can cause his stuff to play down, and given the tremendous pitching depth in this system, it will probably force him to the bullpen. Given that he'll be 25 in February, that might not be the worst move, and it should accelerate his path to the bigs and help him become a power fastball/slider late inning reliever.
- Tanner Dodson (2020 Age: 22-23): You already read about Dodson as an outfielder, but he's probably an even better prospect as a pitcher. The Cal product shut down the New York-Penn League in his pro debut in 2018 (1.44 ERA, 25/5 K/BB), though he missed most of 2019 with injuries and finished with a 5.29 ERA, a 2.18 WHIP, and a 15/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings at High A Charlotte. He has a funky delivery that produces mid to upper 90's fastballs as well as sharp sliders and good fading changeups, and he typically throws enough strikes to make it all play up. Unless he were to give up hitting, I think it's strictly a relief-only profile, though he has shown the ability to go multiple innings. Getting back to full health should get him back on the fast track to the majors, as he's an advanced hitter as well, and he could be a useful part of both the Rays' bullpen and outfield going forward. If he were to give up hitting and focus exclusively on pitching, he has closer upside.
- Graeme Stinson (2020 Age: 22-23): Stinson is a complete wild card. A potential top ten pick coming into his junior season at Duke, he instead lasted just five starts before going down with a hamstring injury and never throwing another pitch for the Blue Devils. He's had his best success as a reliever, but the transition to the rotation was a disaster, with the Rays taking a chance on him in the fourth round in 2019. He has a powerful left arm, one that can sit in the low to mid 90's when he's healthy, and his power slider is already one of the best in the Rays's system. While the Rays could conceivably use a pro conditioning regimen to help him work back into the rotation, his most likely path forward is as a reliever, where his fastball/slider combination could be deadly. He does a decent job of throwing strikes and he brings high upside for a fourth round college draftee.
- Keep an eye on: Anthony Banda, Jack Labosky, Tyler Zombro, Tobias Myers, Simon Rosenblum-Larson
Showing posts with label Xavier Edwards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Xavier Edwards. Show all posts
Saturday, January 25, 2020
Thursday, March 7, 2019
Reviewing the San Diego Padres Farm System
While the Braves, Rays, White Sox, and Blue Jays might be able to give the Padres a run for their money, it's pretty easy to pick San Diego as having the top farm system in baseball. They have the headliner (Fernando Tatis Jr.), a supporting cast of impact hitters (Luis Urias, Francisco Mejia, Josh Naylor), and plenty of pitching depth (led by MacKenzie Gore, Logan Allen, Chris Paddack), making it no surprise that Manny Machado was willing to sign there despite the lack of recent success (though I'm sure the weather didn't hurt). In an overview sense, there's not much else to say except that this system is loaded in every way.
Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA San Antonio Missions*, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, Short Season Tri-City Dust Devils, and complex level AZL and DSL Padres
*AA affiliate will move from San Antonio, TX to Amarillo, TX in 2019
The Headliner: SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
20 year old Fernando Tatis Jr., the son of former major leaguer Fernando Tatis, besides having a great birthday that also happens to be mine (January 2nd crew), is the only other player that can really give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a run for his money as the top prospect in the game right now. As a teenager in 2018, Tatis slashed .286/.355/.507 with 16 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA San Antonio, putting up great numbers despite watching his season end with a thumb injury in July. He's already a complete player who does everything well, showing power, the ability to get on base, speed, and strong defense at shortstop, all at a very young age. I'm not concerned about the higher than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio because Tatis was just 19 years old in AA, and he barrels the ball up consistently enough that it won't be a problem in the majors in 2019. Set to play all of this season at just 20 years old, he should be a strong candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year Award as he looks to fulfill his projections as a 20+ homer bat with high on-base percentages, double digit stolen bases, and great defense: a perennial All Star projection.
High Minors Hitters: 2B Luis Urias, C/OF Francisco Mejia, 3B Jason Vosler, OF Josh Naylor, C/1B Austin Allen, OF Buddy Reed, and 3B Hudson Potts
The Padres are deeper in pitching, but I'll start with the upper level hitters behind Fernando Tatis Jr. who are set to make an impact in the very near future. 21 year old Luis Urias slashed .296/.398/.447 with eight home runs and a 109/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AAA El Paso, then slashed .208/.264/.354 with a pair of home runs and a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 major league games. At 5'9", he doesn't hit for much power, but Urias is a steady singles hitter who draws plenty of walks, avoids strikeouts for the most part, and overall projects to post high on-base percentages. He should be a steady producer for years to come. 23 year old Francisco Mejia is a very well known prospect, having been the top prospect in the Indians' system before he was traded to San Diego in the Brad Hand trade. Mejia slashed .293/.338/.471 with 14 home runs and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AAA, also slashing .179/.258/.375 with three home runs and a 19/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 21 major league games. Mejia has high upside but also comes with plenty of questions, as he is a very solid hitter who can consistently barrel the ball up and spray deep line drives and home runs all over the park, though he is unproven at the major league level despite all his success in the high minors. Defensively, the Padres continue to be hopeful that he can stick as a catcher with his cannon arm, but his defense overall is just so-so. There is a chance he ends up in the outfield or even at third base, where he is also just so-so, but his potential for 15-20 home runs annually and high on-base percentages means that the Padres will be very patient. 25 year old Jason Vosler, who was acquired from the Cubs this offseason, looks like more of a bench bat after slashing .251/.330/.467 with 23 home runs and a 149/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at AA and AAA in 2018. He has power and draws a lot of walks, but he likely won't hit for enough average to ever warrant a starting position, especially with Manny Machado now blocking him at third base. He's an average defensive infielder and will warrant consideration as a power hitting pinch hitter. Dropping down a level, 21 year old Josh Naylor projects to be an impact hitter at the major league level. In 2018, Naylor slashed .297/.383/.447 with 17 home runs and a 69/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA San Antonio, showing some power and great plate discipline. A stocky guy at 5'11" and 250 pounds, you'd expect more power out of Naylor, but his keen eye at the plate and high on-base percentages make up for that and he should hit his way into the starting lineup down the line. Defensively, he doesn't provide much value, playing an average first base and a mediocre left field, but at this point the bat looks like it is enough to carry him. 25 year old Austin Allen finds himself in a somewhat similar position, coming off a 2018 where he slashed .290/.351/.506 with 22 home runs and a 97/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at San Antonio. While Naylor has better plate discipline, the 6'2" Allen has shown more power at this point (keep in mind that Naylor is nearly three and a half years younger) and has the defensive edge because he *might* be able to stick as a catcher. His defense there is mediocre and he just turned 25 in January, but the Padres still hope to refine him to the point where he is playable back there and his power can help him be a bat-first catcher. If he is forced to move to first base, he's still a strong enough hitter that he should be able to stick on a roster and even earn some starts. 23 year old Buddy Reed has had a roller coaster ride for a career, looking like a potential top ten pick for the 2016 draft before an up and down junior season at Florida knocked him to the second round (48th overall), then he struggled in pro ball in both 2016 (.254/.326/.337) and 2017 (.234/.290/.396). However, he turned it around in 2018, slashing .271/.319/.435 with 13 home runs, 51 stolen bases, and a 147/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. He was much better at hitter-friendly Lake Elsinore (.324/.371/.549) than he was at much more pitcher-friendly San Antonio (.179/.227/.235), which raises questions about his ability to hit at the major league level, but he still retains high upside despite turning 24 in April. Reed is exceptionally fast and plays great defense in center field, plus his wiry frame helps him hit for some power at the plate. However, if he wants to end up more than just a fourth outfielder/defensive replacement, he really has to improve his plate discipline in a hurry. Lastly, 20 year old Hudson Potts was actually the Padres first round pick (24th overall, then known as Hudson Sanchez) out of a Dallas area high school in that same 2016 draft, and he slashed .260/.335/.455 with 19 home runs and a 145/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games between Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. Like Reed, he was much better at Lake Elsinore (.281/.350/.498) than he was at San Antonio (.154/.258/.231), though being three and a half years younger does buy him slack. He has some power and at 6'3", he looks like he could grow into more, and while he strikes out a lot, he has been young for the levels he has played at and does possess an advanced bat. Potts isn't a great defender at third base but isn't a liability either, and he is somewhat of a sleeper in the deep system he plays in. Watch for Potts to draw more attention in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Edward Olivares, OF Tirso Ornelas, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, C Luis Campusano, SS Xavier Edwards, and 2B Tucupita Marcano
The best hitters in the Padres' system are up near the top, but they have a whole group of young guys in the low and mid minors that could break out and join that group in 2019. 22 year old Edward Olivares, acquired from the Blue Jays for Yangervis Solarte last offseason, looks like a solid fourth outfielder after slashing .277/.321/.429 with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 102/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at hitter-friendly High A Lake Elsinore in 2018. Olivares is a speedy centerfielder known for his great outfield defense, adding a very good feel for the barrel and plenty of gap power at the plate to round out his skill set. Overall, the bat is likely just a little too light if he wants to be a long-term starter in the majors, but with the ability to post solid on-base percentages and quite a few extra base hits, he should be a very useful fourth outfielder. 18 year old Tirso Ornelas, who grew up right across the border from San Diego in Tijuana, burst onto the scene in 2018 by slashing .252/.341/.392 with eight home runs and a 68/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 games at Class A Fort Wayne. Those numbers might not pop off the page, but Ornelas just turned 18 right before the start of the season and managed very respectable numbers against full season competition (most notably an 11.3% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate). In addition to his very mature approach at the plate, he has room to grow into more power at 6'3" and is a prime candidate for an offensive breakout in the hitter-friendly High A California League in 2019. Defensively, the teenager should be a solid right fielder. 19 year old Jeisson Rosario has a similar profile, having slashed .271/.368/.353 with three home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 108/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. He's also very young, just five months older than Ornelas, and he also has a very patient approach at the plate that allows him to draw plenty of walks. He might strike out a bit more and he doesn't have quite as much power, but he's faster and also has an advanced bat for his age. Ornelas is the better prospect at this point but it will be interesting to see Rosario develop alongside him in the outfield. 19 year old Gabriel Arias slashed .240/.302/.352 with six home runs and a 149/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games with Fort Wayne, and like Ornelas and Rosario, he was extremely young for the level. While his bat isn't as developed as Ornelas's or even Rosario's, he's the best defender in the group with a slick glove and a strong arm at shortstop, buying his bat plenty of time to develop. He has some gap power at this point and isn't afraid to draw a walk, so he has the building blocks to eventually build himself into a starting-caliber shortstop down the road. (though Fernando Tatis Jr. might have something to say about that). 20 year old Luis Campusano was a second round pick (39th overall) out of an Augusta, Georgia high school in 2017, then he slashed .288/.345/.365 with three home runs and a 43/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. Known for his power as a high schooler, that hasn't quite translated into pro ball, but catchers take longer to develop and his .345 on-base percentage was still encouraging. He's a work in progress defensively but shows the tools to be above average in that regard, and if he starts tapping into his raw power more consistently, he could give the Padres a third legitimate catcher behind Francisco Mejia and Austin Allen. Moving farther down in the system, the Padres have a couple of short season bats to replace the big crew graduating from Class A in 2018. 19 year old Xavier Edwards was a competitive balance pick (38th overall) in 2018 out of a South Florida high school, and he slashed .346/.453/.409 with 22 stolen bases and a 25/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and short season Tri-City in his pro debut. Those numbers were exactly in line with what was expected from Edwards, as he brings great plate discipline and feel for the barrel along with lots of speed and defensive value. Because he lacks power, it's important that he continues to spray line drives into the gaps and draw his share of walks. Defensively, he is so-so at shortstop but would be a well above average defender at second base. Overall, he has the makings of a prototypical leadoff man. Lastly, 19 year old Tucupita Marcano, who was apparently named for his hometown of Tucupita, Venezuela, slashed .366/.450/.438 with one home run, 15 stolen bases, and a 16/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in complex ball and at Tri-City. Marcano tore up the complex level Arizona League (.395/.497/.444) but was also strong in short season ball (.314/.355/.429) despite not turning 19 until after the season, showing advanced plate discipline and the ability to make consistent hard contact. He's a decent middle infielder who may be forced from shortstop to second base, but with his potential to post very high on-base percentages, his defense may not matter and 2019 could be the year he really establishes himself in this system.
High Minors Pitchers: LHP Logan Allen, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Jacob Nix, RHP Chris Paddack, and RHP Lake Bachar
The Padres' great wealth of arms is scattered pretty evenly throughout the system, which means that there are a couple of true impact arms knocking on the door right now even after 2016 draftees Eric Lauer (first round from Kent State) and Joey Lucchesi (fourth round from Southeast Missouri State) graduated in 2018. 21 year old Logan Allen, who came over from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel trade of 2015, has dominated the minor leagues and put up a huge season in 2018, going 14-6 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 151/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.2 innings at AA San Antonio and AAA El Paso. The 6'3" lefty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondaries, though only his changeup can be considered a swing and miss pitch. Instead of blowing the ball by hitters, Allen finds success by mixing his pitches and maintaining his stuff deep into ballgames, giving him a pretty clear #3 or #4 starter projection with fairly low risk. He should be able to hold down a major league rotation spot for most or all of 2019. 24 year old Cal Quantrill is a Canadian righty out of Stanford who was a first round pick (eighth overall in 2016), though he had an up and down 2018 and posted a 4.80 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 123/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings between San Antonio and El Paso. Quantrill, like Allen, is a pitchability guy who only throws in the low to mid 90's but who adds a full array of secondaries headlined by a great changeup. He has better command than Allen but has less deception in his delivery and doesn't get as many strikeouts, and that command does come and go. When he's on, though, he looks fantastic; on June 3rd, he struck out ten over seven shutout innings against the AA Springfield Cardinals, allowing just five baserunners along the way. Quantrill is going to need his command to be "on" more than it's "off" in the majors, where he could be a very solid #3 starter but who could slip back to a #4 or a #5 if he can't get more consistent. To wrap up the Allen/Quantrill comparison: Allen is almost two and a half years younger than Quantrill and is consistently average with his command, while Quantrill fluctuates anywhere from average to above average in that regard. However, as a lefty, Allen gets more deception on his stuff and can get away with that average command. 23 year old Jacob Nix, who was caught up in the Brady Aiken draft mess of 2014 with the Astros, was the Padres' third round pick (86th overall) in 2016 and pitched well in the high minors in 2018, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 44/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at San Antonio and El Paso. However, he struggled in a brief MLB call-up with a 7.02 ERA and a 21/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings, so he'll try again in 2019. Nix is a 6'4" righty with a straight, low to mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a decent changeup, and he does a very good job of throwing strikes in general. Sometimes he can be a little bit too much over the plate, which led to him allowing eight home runs in nine major league starts in 2018, but a few further tweaks in his command could make him a solid #4 starter in the near future. Moving down a level, 23 year old Chris Paddack had as big a bounce-back season as you can have in 2018, posting a 2.10 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 120/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio a year after missing all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery. Paddack now has a 1.82 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and a 230/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 177.2 career minor league innings since being drafted in the eighth round out of an Austin-area high school by the Marlins in 2015, as he has showcased exceptional command to go along with a low 90's fastball, a mediocre curveball, and a fantastic changeup that serves as a true swing and miss pitch. Paddack has some stiff competition for rotation spots to deal with in the near future, so the Padres can be patient with him and help him build his stamina back up after throwing just 132.1 innings from 2016-2018, but after that he could be a very useful mid-rotation starter. Lastly, 23 year old Lake Bachar posted a 4.68 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an 80/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings at Lake Elsinore and San Antonio, though those stats don't count two strong appearances in the AA Texas League playoffs (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K). His stuff isn't great, but he has a full array of secondary pitches and commands everything decently well, also getting good deception with his high three quarters arm angle. He's unlikely to stick in the rotation in a system as deep as this one, but he could be a useful long reliever in the near future.
Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Michel Baez, LHP Adrian Morejon, RHP Andres Munoz, RHP Reggie Lawson, LHP Nick Margevicius, and RHP David Bednar
Behind the group knocking on the door to the MLB, the Padres have another wave of talent who just came through High A. 23 year old Michel Baez was signed out of Cuba for $3 million two offseasons ago, and after a dominant stateside debut in 2017 (2.54 ERA, 89/10 K/BB), he continued the good work in 2018 by posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA San Antonio. He's a huge guy at 6'8", which makes his mid 90's fastball and full arsenal of secondaries very difficult to square up. He hasn't been the most consistent pitcher, sometimes losing his command and seeing his fastball dip into the low 90's, but Baez has the makings of a #2 or #3 starter with just a few more tweaks in his mechanics. Otherwise, he should fare just fine as an impact reliever if he can't get more consistent with his stuff. 20 year old Adrian Morejon is another Cuban who signed for $11 million back in 2016, and he had a strong season by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at Lake Elsinore (with one rehab appearance in complex ball). He's a very different pitcher from Baez in that he's just six feet tall and left handed, but he still brings the heat with a mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a couple of changeups, and he has been more consistent with his stuff despite being three years younger. Durability is an issue for a smaller guy like Morejon, and the missed time in 2018 didn't help alleviate those worries. If healthy, Morejon looks like a potential #2 starter, but that's always a big "if" and we'll have to see how he fares in 2019. Further durability issues could push him to the bullpen, where he should be very strong. 20 year old Andres Munoz had a breakout season in 2018, posting a 0.73 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings between short season Tri-City and San Antonio, managing to pitch very well in AA as a teenager. He's purely a reliever and is an absolute flamethrower, sitting in the upper 90's with his fastball and adding an up and coming slider, though he struggles with control and needs to prove his durability as well. Now healthy in 2019, Munoz has a chance to improve that control, and if he can further improve his slider (he'll be just 20 for all of 2019), he has a shot to be a major league closer. 21 year old Reggie Lawson survived the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, posting a 4.69 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 117/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" righty isn't of the same prospect caliber as Baez and Morejon, but he shows a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball to go along with some durability and projectability, giving him the chance to be a #4 starter if he can improve his command a little. If not, his fastball/curveball combination should play well in the bullpen anyways, and he'll get a crack at AA in 2019. 22 year old Nick Margevicius raised some eyebrows in 2018 with his strong season, posting a 3.60 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 146/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. He's a 6'5" lefty with great command, and even though he barely sits in the low 90's with his fastball, he gets plenty of strikeouts by getting ahead in the count and dropping his great changeup on opposing hitters. The Padres have had great success with Chris Paddack, the right handed version of Margevicius, and will hope for more of the same here. Lastly, 24 year old David Bednar is purely a relief prospect, but he pitched well enough in the California League to warrant some attention with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 96/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings at Lake Elsinore. He misses bats with a mid 90's fastball, though his secondaries and command are currently behind and he doesn't have the same upside as Munoz. The curveball gets swings and misses and improved command in 2019 could put him on the fast track to the majors, where he could be a strong middle reliever.
Low Minors Pitchers: LHP MacKenzie Gore, RHP Luis Patino, LHP Osvaldo Hernandez, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Henry Henry, and RHP Anderson Espinoza
This group of pitchers is farther away, but it's still a great set of potential impact starters who give the Padres yet another wave of pitching sitting in the minors. 20 year old MacKenzie Gore, the third overall pick of the 2017 draft from high school in Southeastern North Carolina, had an up-and-down but overall successful transition to full season ball in 2018 by posting a 4.45 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 74/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne. Gore put up some of the craziest high school pitching numbers ever seen at Whiteville High School, going 33-1 with a 0.11 ERA and 332 strikeouts in 157.2 innings, over which he allowed just two runs. Coming from a small school in rural North Carolina, it's understandable that Gore was a bit raw in his first taste of pro ball, and blisters made it difficult for him to keep his stuff sharp in 2018. However, when healthy, Gore checks every box for what you want in a future ace; he's a 6'3" lefty with no weaknesses, tossing a low to mid 90's fastball and adding a full array of secondaries – all of which flash plus – that he can command well for a young pitcher, and his competitiveness and work ethic are considered top of the scale. Healthy in 2019, Gore will have a chance to break out and move toward his ultimate ceiling of being a true ace. 19 year old Luis Patino was signed for just $120,000 out of Colombia in 2016, but he has been fantastic ever since joining pro ball and posted a 2.16 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings at Fort Wayne in 2018, pitching the whole season at 18 years old. The teenager has a mid 90's fastball and a pair of great breaking balls, enabling him to miss plenty of bats even against older competition. He commands everything pretty well for a pitcher his age, and he's only getting stronger. Eight months younger than Gore and already boasting a better track record, Patino has true ace potential and could emerge as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball with a successful transition to High A in 2019. 20 year old Osvaldo Hernandez had a quiet breakout season in 2018, posting a 1.81 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 109.2 innings with Fort Wayne. Hernandez has a low 90's fastball and just decent offspeed stuff (though his curveball is currently his best pitch) but controls the strike zone and mixes his pitches well enough to shut down opposing offenses, at least in Class A. The six foot lefty will have to continue to hit the corners if he wants to succeed at the higher levels, but he has the makings of a back-end starter down the road. 19 year old Ryan Weathers was the Padres' first round pick (seventh overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2018, and he quickly responded by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an 18/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.1 innings between complex ball and Fort Wayne. Despite his age, Weathers is actually more about command and durability than about pure upside, as he's a physically developed, 6'1" lefty with a low 90's fastball, a good curveball, and an advanced changeup. He should be a quick mover as far as high school pitchers go because he already has a pretty clear idea of how to pitch and use what he has, and he has mid-rotation upside with less risk than the typical high school arm. 20 year old Henry Henry has a great name but is also a solid pitching prospect, having posted a 4.54 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 55/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Fort Wayne in 2018. The 6'4" righty is very projectable and currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a solid curveball, and while his command isn't pinpoint, he's not wild and he can hit his spots. Adding some good weight could get him into the mid 90's with his fastball and make him a very interesting rotation candidate down the line, though he still has a good shot to be a solid fastball/curveball reliever. Lastly, 20 year old Anderson Espinoza missed the 2017 and 2018 seasons with Tommy John surgery, but the Padres have their fingers crossed that he's healthy and ready to get back to working towards his immense upside in 2019. He's a skinny six footer with a mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a very advanced changeup for his age, generally commanding everything well and looking like a future ace on his best days. However, we haven't seen him in game action since 2016, so it's hard to know exactly what his stuff will look like this season, but he turns just 21 during spring training and still has plenty of time to get back on track. Durability is definitely a concern given his size and injury history, so if he can't hold up in a rotation, he has high upside as a hard throwing reliever as well.
Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA San Antonio Missions*, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, Short Season Tri-City Dust Devils, and complex level AZL and DSL Padres
*AA affiliate will move from San Antonio, TX to Amarillo, TX in 2019
The Headliner: SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
20 year old Fernando Tatis Jr., the son of former major leaguer Fernando Tatis, besides having a great birthday that also happens to be mine (January 2nd crew), is the only other player that can really give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a run for his money as the top prospect in the game right now. As a teenager in 2018, Tatis slashed .286/.355/.507 with 16 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA San Antonio, putting up great numbers despite watching his season end with a thumb injury in July. He's already a complete player who does everything well, showing power, the ability to get on base, speed, and strong defense at shortstop, all at a very young age. I'm not concerned about the higher than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio because Tatis was just 19 years old in AA, and he barrels the ball up consistently enough that it won't be a problem in the majors in 2019. Set to play all of this season at just 20 years old, he should be a strong candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year Award as he looks to fulfill his projections as a 20+ homer bat with high on-base percentages, double digit stolen bases, and great defense: a perennial All Star projection.
High Minors Hitters: 2B Luis Urias, C/OF Francisco Mejia, 3B Jason Vosler, OF Josh Naylor, C/1B Austin Allen, OF Buddy Reed, and 3B Hudson Potts
The Padres are deeper in pitching, but I'll start with the upper level hitters behind Fernando Tatis Jr. who are set to make an impact in the very near future. 21 year old Luis Urias slashed .296/.398/.447 with eight home runs and a 109/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AAA El Paso, then slashed .208/.264/.354 with a pair of home runs and a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 major league games. At 5'9", he doesn't hit for much power, but Urias is a steady singles hitter who draws plenty of walks, avoids strikeouts for the most part, and overall projects to post high on-base percentages. He should be a steady producer for years to come. 23 year old Francisco Mejia is a very well known prospect, having been the top prospect in the Indians' system before he was traded to San Diego in the Brad Hand trade. Mejia slashed .293/.338/.471 with 14 home runs and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AAA, also slashing .179/.258/.375 with three home runs and a 19/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 21 major league games. Mejia has high upside but also comes with plenty of questions, as he is a very solid hitter who can consistently barrel the ball up and spray deep line drives and home runs all over the park, though he is unproven at the major league level despite all his success in the high minors. Defensively, the Padres continue to be hopeful that he can stick as a catcher with his cannon arm, but his defense overall is just so-so. There is a chance he ends up in the outfield or even at third base, where he is also just so-so, but his potential for 15-20 home runs annually and high on-base percentages means that the Padres will be very patient. 25 year old Jason Vosler, who was acquired from the Cubs this offseason, looks like more of a bench bat after slashing .251/.330/.467 with 23 home runs and a 149/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at AA and AAA in 2018. He has power and draws a lot of walks, but he likely won't hit for enough average to ever warrant a starting position, especially with Manny Machado now blocking him at third base. He's an average defensive infielder and will warrant consideration as a power hitting pinch hitter. Dropping down a level, 21 year old Josh Naylor projects to be an impact hitter at the major league level. In 2018, Naylor slashed .297/.383/.447 with 17 home runs and a 69/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA San Antonio, showing some power and great plate discipline. A stocky guy at 5'11" and 250 pounds, you'd expect more power out of Naylor, but his keen eye at the plate and high on-base percentages make up for that and he should hit his way into the starting lineup down the line. Defensively, he doesn't provide much value, playing an average first base and a mediocre left field, but at this point the bat looks like it is enough to carry him. 25 year old Austin Allen finds himself in a somewhat similar position, coming off a 2018 where he slashed .290/.351/.506 with 22 home runs and a 97/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at San Antonio. While Naylor has better plate discipline, the 6'2" Allen has shown more power at this point (keep in mind that Naylor is nearly three and a half years younger) and has the defensive edge because he *might* be able to stick as a catcher. His defense there is mediocre and he just turned 25 in January, but the Padres still hope to refine him to the point where he is playable back there and his power can help him be a bat-first catcher. If he is forced to move to first base, he's still a strong enough hitter that he should be able to stick on a roster and even earn some starts. 23 year old Buddy Reed has had a roller coaster ride for a career, looking like a potential top ten pick for the 2016 draft before an up and down junior season at Florida knocked him to the second round (48th overall), then he struggled in pro ball in both 2016 (.254/.326/.337) and 2017 (.234/.290/.396). However, he turned it around in 2018, slashing .271/.319/.435 with 13 home runs, 51 stolen bases, and a 147/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. He was much better at hitter-friendly Lake Elsinore (.324/.371/.549) than he was at much more pitcher-friendly San Antonio (.179/.227/.235), which raises questions about his ability to hit at the major league level, but he still retains high upside despite turning 24 in April. Reed is exceptionally fast and plays great defense in center field, plus his wiry frame helps him hit for some power at the plate. However, if he wants to end up more than just a fourth outfielder/defensive replacement, he really has to improve his plate discipline in a hurry. Lastly, 20 year old Hudson Potts was actually the Padres first round pick (24th overall, then known as Hudson Sanchez) out of a Dallas area high school in that same 2016 draft, and he slashed .260/.335/.455 with 19 home runs and a 145/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games between Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. Like Reed, he was much better at Lake Elsinore (.281/.350/.498) than he was at San Antonio (.154/.258/.231), though being three and a half years younger does buy him slack. He has some power and at 6'3", he looks like he could grow into more, and while he strikes out a lot, he has been young for the levels he has played at and does possess an advanced bat. Potts isn't a great defender at third base but isn't a liability either, and he is somewhat of a sleeper in the deep system he plays in. Watch for Potts to draw more attention in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Edward Olivares, OF Tirso Ornelas, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, C Luis Campusano, SS Xavier Edwards, and 2B Tucupita Marcano
The best hitters in the Padres' system are up near the top, but they have a whole group of young guys in the low and mid minors that could break out and join that group in 2019. 22 year old Edward Olivares, acquired from the Blue Jays for Yangervis Solarte last offseason, looks like a solid fourth outfielder after slashing .277/.321/.429 with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 102/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at hitter-friendly High A Lake Elsinore in 2018. Olivares is a speedy centerfielder known for his great outfield defense, adding a very good feel for the barrel and plenty of gap power at the plate to round out his skill set. Overall, the bat is likely just a little too light if he wants to be a long-term starter in the majors, but with the ability to post solid on-base percentages and quite a few extra base hits, he should be a very useful fourth outfielder. 18 year old Tirso Ornelas, who grew up right across the border from San Diego in Tijuana, burst onto the scene in 2018 by slashing .252/.341/.392 with eight home runs and a 68/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 games at Class A Fort Wayne. Those numbers might not pop off the page, but Ornelas just turned 18 right before the start of the season and managed very respectable numbers against full season competition (most notably an 11.3% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate). In addition to his very mature approach at the plate, he has room to grow into more power at 6'3" and is a prime candidate for an offensive breakout in the hitter-friendly High A California League in 2019. Defensively, the teenager should be a solid right fielder. 19 year old Jeisson Rosario has a similar profile, having slashed .271/.368/.353 with three home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 108/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. He's also very young, just five months older than Ornelas, and he also has a very patient approach at the plate that allows him to draw plenty of walks. He might strike out a bit more and he doesn't have quite as much power, but he's faster and also has an advanced bat for his age. Ornelas is the better prospect at this point but it will be interesting to see Rosario develop alongside him in the outfield. 19 year old Gabriel Arias slashed .240/.302/.352 with six home runs and a 149/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games with Fort Wayne, and like Ornelas and Rosario, he was extremely young for the level. While his bat isn't as developed as Ornelas's or even Rosario's, he's the best defender in the group with a slick glove and a strong arm at shortstop, buying his bat plenty of time to develop. He has some gap power at this point and isn't afraid to draw a walk, so he has the building blocks to eventually build himself into a starting-caliber shortstop down the road. (though Fernando Tatis Jr. might have something to say about that). 20 year old Luis Campusano was a second round pick (39th overall) out of an Augusta, Georgia high school in 2017, then he slashed .288/.345/.365 with three home runs and a 43/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. Known for his power as a high schooler, that hasn't quite translated into pro ball, but catchers take longer to develop and his .345 on-base percentage was still encouraging. He's a work in progress defensively but shows the tools to be above average in that regard, and if he starts tapping into his raw power more consistently, he could give the Padres a third legitimate catcher behind Francisco Mejia and Austin Allen. Moving farther down in the system, the Padres have a couple of short season bats to replace the big crew graduating from Class A in 2018. 19 year old Xavier Edwards was a competitive balance pick (38th overall) in 2018 out of a South Florida high school, and he slashed .346/.453/.409 with 22 stolen bases and a 25/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and short season Tri-City in his pro debut. Those numbers were exactly in line with what was expected from Edwards, as he brings great plate discipline and feel for the barrel along with lots of speed and defensive value. Because he lacks power, it's important that he continues to spray line drives into the gaps and draw his share of walks. Defensively, he is so-so at shortstop but would be a well above average defender at second base. Overall, he has the makings of a prototypical leadoff man. Lastly, 19 year old Tucupita Marcano, who was apparently named for his hometown of Tucupita, Venezuela, slashed .366/.450/.438 with one home run, 15 stolen bases, and a 16/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in complex ball and at Tri-City. Marcano tore up the complex level Arizona League (.395/.497/.444) but was also strong in short season ball (.314/.355/.429) despite not turning 19 until after the season, showing advanced plate discipline and the ability to make consistent hard contact. He's a decent middle infielder who may be forced from shortstop to second base, but with his potential to post very high on-base percentages, his defense may not matter and 2019 could be the year he really establishes himself in this system.
High Minors Pitchers: LHP Logan Allen, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Jacob Nix, RHP Chris Paddack, and RHP Lake Bachar
The Padres' great wealth of arms is scattered pretty evenly throughout the system, which means that there are a couple of true impact arms knocking on the door right now even after 2016 draftees Eric Lauer (first round from Kent State) and Joey Lucchesi (fourth round from Southeast Missouri State) graduated in 2018. 21 year old Logan Allen, who came over from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel trade of 2015, has dominated the minor leagues and put up a huge season in 2018, going 14-6 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 151/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.2 innings at AA San Antonio and AAA El Paso. The 6'3" lefty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondaries, though only his changeup can be considered a swing and miss pitch. Instead of blowing the ball by hitters, Allen finds success by mixing his pitches and maintaining his stuff deep into ballgames, giving him a pretty clear #3 or #4 starter projection with fairly low risk. He should be able to hold down a major league rotation spot for most or all of 2019. 24 year old Cal Quantrill is a Canadian righty out of Stanford who was a first round pick (eighth overall in 2016), though he had an up and down 2018 and posted a 4.80 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 123/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings between San Antonio and El Paso. Quantrill, like Allen, is a pitchability guy who only throws in the low to mid 90's but who adds a full array of secondaries headlined by a great changeup. He has better command than Allen but has less deception in his delivery and doesn't get as many strikeouts, and that command does come and go. When he's on, though, he looks fantastic; on June 3rd, he struck out ten over seven shutout innings against the AA Springfield Cardinals, allowing just five baserunners along the way. Quantrill is going to need his command to be "on" more than it's "off" in the majors, where he could be a very solid #3 starter but who could slip back to a #4 or a #5 if he can't get more consistent. To wrap up the Allen/Quantrill comparison: Allen is almost two and a half years younger than Quantrill and is consistently average with his command, while Quantrill fluctuates anywhere from average to above average in that regard. However, as a lefty, Allen gets more deception on his stuff and can get away with that average command. 23 year old Jacob Nix, who was caught up in the Brady Aiken draft mess of 2014 with the Astros, was the Padres' third round pick (86th overall) in 2016 and pitched well in the high minors in 2018, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 44/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at San Antonio and El Paso. However, he struggled in a brief MLB call-up with a 7.02 ERA and a 21/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings, so he'll try again in 2019. Nix is a 6'4" righty with a straight, low to mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a decent changeup, and he does a very good job of throwing strikes in general. Sometimes he can be a little bit too much over the plate, which led to him allowing eight home runs in nine major league starts in 2018, but a few further tweaks in his command could make him a solid #4 starter in the near future. Moving down a level, 23 year old Chris Paddack had as big a bounce-back season as you can have in 2018, posting a 2.10 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 120/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio a year after missing all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery. Paddack now has a 1.82 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and a 230/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 177.2 career minor league innings since being drafted in the eighth round out of an Austin-area high school by the Marlins in 2015, as he has showcased exceptional command to go along with a low 90's fastball, a mediocre curveball, and a fantastic changeup that serves as a true swing and miss pitch. Paddack has some stiff competition for rotation spots to deal with in the near future, so the Padres can be patient with him and help him build his stamina back up after throwing just 132.1 innings from 2016-2018, but after that he could be a very useful mid-rotation starter. Lastly, 23 year old Lake Bachar posted a 4.68 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an 80/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings at Lake Elsinore and San Antonio, though those stats don't count two strong appearances in the AA Texas League playoffs (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K). His stuff isn't great, but he has a full array of secondary pitches and commands everything decently well, also getting good deception with his high three quarters arm angle. He's unlikely to stick in the rotation in a system as deep as this one, but he could be a useful long reliever in the near future.
Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Michel Baez, LHP Adrian Morejon, RHP Andres Munoz, RHP Reggie Lawson, LHP Nick Margevicius, and RHP David Bednar
Behind the group knocking on the door to the MLB, the Padres have another wave of talent who just came through High A. 23 year old Michel Baez was signed out of Cuba for $3 million two offseasons ago, and after a dominant stateside debut in 2017 (2.54 ERA, 89/10 K/BB), he continued the good work in 2018 by posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA San Antonio. He's a huge guy at 6'8", which makes his mid 90's fastball and full arsenal of secondaries very difficult to square up. He hasn't been the most consistent pitcher, sometimes losing his command and seeing his fastball dip into the low 90's, but Baez has the makings of a #2 or #3 starter with just a few more tweaks in his mechanics. Otherwise, he should fare just fine as an impact reliever if he can't get more consistent with his stuff. 20 year old Adrian Morejon is another Cuban who signed for $11 million back in 2016, and he had a strong season by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at Lake Elsinore (with one rehab appearance in complex ball). He's a very different pitcher from Baez in that he's just six feet tall and left handed, but he still brings the heat with a mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a couple of changeups, and he has been more consistent with his stuff despite being three years younger. Durability is an issue for a smaller guy like Morejon, and the missed time in 2018 didn't help alleviate those worries. If healthy, Morejon looks like a potential #2 starter, but that's always a big "if" and we'll have to see how he fares in 2019. Further durability issues could push him to the bullpen, where he should be very strong. 20 year old Andres Munoz had a breakout season in 2018, posting a 0.73 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings between short season Tri-City and San Antonio, managing to pitch very well in AA as a teenager. He's purely a reliever and is an absolute flamethrower, sitting in the upper 90's with his fastball and adding an up and coming slider, though he struggles with control and needs to prove his durability as well. Now healthy in 2019, Munoz has a chance to improve that control, and if he can further improve his slider (he'll be just 20 for all of 2019), he has a shot to be a major league closer. 21 year old Reggie Lawson survived the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, posting a 4.69 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 117/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" righty isn't of the same prospect caliber as Baez and Morejon, but he shows a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball to go along with some durability and projectability, giving him the chance to be a #4 starter if he can improve his command a little. If not, his fastball/curveball combination should play well in the bullpen anyways, and he'll get a crack at AA in 2019. 22 year old Nick Margevicius raised some eyebrows in 2018 with his strong season, posting a 3.60 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 146/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. He's a 6'5" lefty with great command, and even though he barely sits in the low 90's with his fastball, he gets plenty of strikeouts by getting ahead in the count and dropping his great changeup on opposing hitters. The Padres have had great success with Chris Paddack, the right handed version of Margevicius, and will hope for more of the same here. Lastly, 24 year old David Bednar is purely a relief prospect, but he pitched well enough in the California League to warrant some attention with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 96/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings at Lake Elsinore. He misses bats with a mid 90's fastball, though his secondaries and command are currently behind and he doesn't have the same upside as Munoz. The curveball gets swings and misses and improved command in 2019 could put him on the fast track to the majors, where he could be a strong middle reliever.
Low Minors Pitchers: LHP MacKenzie Gore, RHP Luis Patino, LHP Osvaldo Hernandez, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Henry Henry, and RHP Anderson Espinoza
This group of pitchers is farther away, but it's still a great set of potential impact starters who give the Padres yet another wave of pitching sitting in the minors. 20 year old MacKenzie Gore, the third overall pick of the 2017 draft from high school in Southeastern North Carolina, had an up-and-down but overall successful transition to full season ball in 2018 by posting a 4.45 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 74/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne. Gore put up some of the craziest high school pitching numbers ever seen at Whiteville High School, going 33-1 with a 0.11 ERA and 332 strikeouts in 157.2 innings, over which he allowed just two runs. Coming from a small school in rural North Carolina, it's understandable that Gore was a bit raw in his first taste of pro ball, and blisters made it difficult for him to keep his stuff sharp in 2018. However, when healthy, Gore checks every box for what you want in a future ace; he's a 6'3" lefty with no weaknesses, tossing a low to mid 90's fastball and adding a full array of secondaries – all of which flash plus – that he can command well for a young pitcher, and his competitiveness and work ethic are considered top of the scale. Healthy in 2019, Gore will have a chance to break out and move toward his ultimate ceiling of being a true ace. 19 year old Luis Patino was signed for just $120,000 out of Colombia in 2016, but he has been fantastic ever since joining pro ball and posted a 2.16 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings at Fort Wayne in 2018, pitching the whole season at 18 years old. The teenager has a mid 90's fastball and a pair of great breaking balls, enabling him to miss plenty of bats even against older competition. He commands everything pretty well for a pitcher his age, and he's only getting stronger. Eight months younger than Gore and already boasting a better track record, Patino has true ace potential and could emerge as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball with a successful transition to High A in 2019. 20 year old Osvaldo Hernandez had a quiet breakout season in 2018, posting a 1.81 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 109.2 innings with Fort Wayne. Hernandez has a low 90's fastball and just decent offspeed stuff (though his curveball is currently his best pitch) but controls the strike zone and mixes his pitches well enough to shut down opposing offenses, at least in Class A. The six foot lefty will have to continue to hit the corners if he wants to succeed at the higher levels, but he has the makings of a back-end starter down the road. 19 year old Ryan Weathers was the Padres' first round pick (seventh overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2018, and he quickly responded by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an 18/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.1 innings between complex ball and Fort Wayne. Despite his age, Weathers is actually more about command and durability than about pure upside, as he's a physically developed, 6'1" lefty with a low 90's fastball, a good curveball, and an advanced changeup. He should be a quick mover as far as high school pitchers go because he already has a pretty clear idea of how to pitch and use what he has, and he has mid-rotation upside with less risk than the typical high school arm. 20 year old Henry Henry has a great name but is also a solid pitching prospect, having posted a 4.54 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 55/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Fort Wayne in 2018. The 6'4" righty is very projectable and currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a solid curveball, and while his command isn't pinpoint, he's not wild and he can hit his spots. Adding some good weight could get him into the mid 90's with his fastball and make him a very interesting rotation candidate down the line, though he still has a good shot to be a solid fastball/curveball reliever. Lastly, 20 year old Anderson Espinoza missed the 2017 and 2018 seasons with Tommy John surgery, but the Padres have their fingers crossed that he's healthy and ready to get back to working towards his immense upside in 2019. He's a skinny six footer with a mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a very advanced changeup for his age, generally commanding everything well and looking like a future ace on his best days. However, we haven't seen him in game action since 2016, so it's hard to know exactly what his stuff will look like this season, but he turns just 21 during spring training and still has plenty of time to get back on track. Durability is definitely a concern given his size and injury history, so if he can't hold up in a rotation, he has high upside as a hard throwing reliever as well.
Monday, July 16, 2018
2018 Draft Review: San Diego Padres
First 5 rounds: Ryan Weathers (1-7), Xavier Edwards (CBA-38), Grant Little (CBB-74), Owen Miller (3-84), Dylan Coleman (4-111), Dwanya Williams-Sutton (5-141)
Also notable: Jawuan Harris (7-201), Luke Becker (9-261), Sean Guilbe (12-351)
Since they already have one of the best farm systems in baseball, the Padres went for upside here to see if they can add a few more names to their list of high level prospects. They leaned a little bit more on hitters but not much, and while I think they made some reaches, they added a lot of talent. Overall, from a team with a top ten pick as well as two competitive balance picks, I think the haul is a little light, but as an upside-oriented draft, only a couple players have to be successful for it to be a successful draft.
1-7: LHP Ryan Weathers (my rank: 18)
Weathers is a great pitcher, no doubt, and definitely a first round talent, so it's hard to be negative here but there were definitely high school pitchers, even a high school lefty (Matthew Liberatore) available that I liked better. Weathers is a 6'1" lefty out of Loretto High School in rural Tennessee, about 90 miles southwest of Nashville. The son of 19 year MLB veteran David Weathers, Ryan is arguably the safest bet among all high school pitchers. Though he lacks physical projection, he's very good right now, throwing a low 90's fastball, a curveball with inconsistent break but good power, and a solid changeup, all of which he commands well. Really, aside from acclimating to higher levels and better hitters, all that he has to do to end up a major league starter is maintain his command and get more consistent with his curveball, which is saying a lot for a high schooler. His lack of a "to-do" list might also give him time to tinker with adding a slider and improving his changeup further. I like him, but those that are high on him really, really like him, and he has a good chance to move through the minors quickly by high school standards and be a mid-rotation starter for a long time, though his chances of becoming an ace are lower. He signed for just over $5.2 million, right at slot.
CBA-38: SS Xavier Edwards (my rank: 26)
Edwards is a high school shortstop from South Florida, one with speed and the ability to switch hit. Despite being a switch hitter, he shows great feel for the barrel and should post high batting averages and on-base percentages at the major league level. The swing is cleaner from the right side and will require some refinements on the left, but he is wiry and strong enough to hit for some power, though 20 homer seasons won't be in the books. With that exceptional speed, he will be able to remain a shortstop, though likely not a Gold Glove caliber one. At best, he could be a leadoff man in San Diego. He signed for $2.6 million, which is $721,700 above slot, and he is slashing .423/.515/.423 with no extra base hits but six stolen bases and a 4/6 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games in the rookie level Arizona League.
CBB-74: OF Grant Little (unranked)
Little was the first of eleven players drafted off an exceptional Texas Tech team this year, as he was draft eligible as a sophomore and slashed .370/.462/.642 with 12 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 38/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 65 games. He's an average sized hitter (6'1", 185 lbs), but he generates power through a quick, efficient swing and by gaining ground with his load, something I always like to see. Defensively, his position is kind of up in the air, as he could definitely play left field but that would put a lot of pressure on his bat. He may be able to handle center, and second base is also an option. No matter where he plays, his bat will have to carry him, but he may have just enough bat to profile as a 20 homer, .350 on-base percentage guy and start. He signed for $800,000, which is $12,200 below slot, and he's slashing .293/.340/.317 with three stolen bases and a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio through ten games in the short season Northwest League.
3-84: SS Owen Miller (unranked)
Miller started for three years at Illinois State, playing well as a freshman (.328/.368/.498) and as a sophomore (.325/.351/.498) before breaking out as a junior, slashing .384/.433/.537 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 23/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 52 games. He generates his moderate power from a fairly long swing which will have to be shortened in pro ball, though a low 9.1% strikeout rate this year will help him and it may not need to be shortened too much as long as he keeps catching up to better and better pitching. He doesn't walk much, which isn't really a problem now while he's hitting for power but might become one if he takes more of a contact-oriented approach, and with his speed he could steal a few bases. Defensively, he has a chance to stick at shortstop but may ultimately be a second baseman. He signed for $500,000, which is $194,500 below slot, and he is slashing .336/.373/.448 with two home runs and a 15/4 strikeout to walk ratio through 29 games in the Northwest League.
4-111: RHP Dylan Coleman (my rank: 78)
Coleman is a college arm with great stuff but who doesn't always get the results you would think he'd get. He had his best year for Missouri State this year, going 10-2 with a 3.77 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 129/59 strikeout to walk ratio in 102.2 innings, striking out opponents in bunches but also allowing too many walks. He has an extremely quick arm and throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's with a great slider and a good curveball, but he struggles to repeat his delivery and has trouble locating his pitches consistently. He'll require a lot of work for a college arm, but the 6'6" righty has a high ceiling and could be a #2 starter. He signed for $500,000, which is $2,800 below slot and started off in the Northwest League, throwing six innings and allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts before a promotion to Class A Fort Wayne. There, he has tossed 4.2 shutout innings on two hits, four walks, and four strikeouts.
5-141: OF Dwanya Williams-Sutton (unranked)
Williams-Sutton has the distinction of being the first Dwanya to ever play professional baseball, and he'll do so after a successful breakout season at East Carolina. As a junior this past year, he slashed .331/.477/.556 with seven home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games, though he did miss some time with a wrist injury. He's a very athletic, very strong outfielder who may be able to profile in center field but can fall back on right field. He does have his share of swing and misses (19% strikeout rate) but he also walks a fair amount (14.4%) and offers plenty of upside if the Padres can help him channel his strength and athleticism into more power. He did struggle on the Cape (.148/.324/.185, 11/4 K/BB), and his bat may be a little bit behind that of other college hitters, but his ceiling is higher. To boot, he's young for his grade, having just turned 21 a few days ago. He signed for $350,000, which is $25,600 below slot, and he's slashing .262/.295/.429 with a home run and a 12/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games in the Northwest League.
Others: 7th rounder Jawuan Harris, even at just 5'9", is an athlete through and through, as he plays on the Rutgers baseball team and football team, going so far as to play both ways on the gridiron as a safety and a wide receiver. As you can guess, he's pretty raw, but he has excellent speed that should help him stay in center field. He has never quite gotten it going at the plate, finishing his junior year slashing .246/.375/.387 with a pair of home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 47/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He swings and misses a lot (26.7% strikeout rate this year), as you would expect, but he also draws a surprising number of walks (15.9%), and the Padres will bank on their being untapped potential obscured by his football focus. 9th rounder Luke Becker has been a steady contributor at Kentucky, where he finished his junior season slashing .286/.410/.466 with seven home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 45/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. He's a second baseman that uses an advanced approach at the plate (14.3% walk rate) to get on base and drive balls into the gaps, though he swings and misses a bit much for a player of that profile (17.4% strikeout rate). If he can hone his plate discipline just a bit further, which I think he can, he could stick as a utility infielder and get some shots at starting at second base. 12th rounder Sean Guilbe is a borderline top five rounds talent, but he slid to the 12th due to signability and cost the Padres $175,000 against their bonus pool for a total of a $300,000 bonus. He's a powerful third baseman out of high school in Reading, Pennsylvania, one who can drive the ball out of any park but who may struggle with contact at the next level.
Also notable: Jawuan Harris (7-201), Luke Becker (9-261), Sean Guilbe (12-351)
Since they already have one of the best farm systems in baseball, the Padres went for upside here to see if they can add a few more names to their list of high level prospects. They leaned a little bit more on hitters but not much, and while I think they made some reaches, they added a lot of talent. Overall, from a team with a top ten pick as well as two competitive balance picks, I think the haul is a little light, but as an upside-oriented draft, only a couple players have to be successful for it to be a successful draft.
1-7: LHP Ryan Weathers (my rank: 18)
Weathers is a great pitcher, no doubt, and definitely a first round talent, so it's hard to be negative here but there were definitely high school pitchers, even a high school lefty (Matthew Liberatore) available that I liked better. Weathers is a 6'1" lefty out of Loretto High School in rural Tennessee, about 90 miles southwest of Nashville. The son of 19 year MLB veteran David Weathers, Ryan is arguably the safest bet among all high school pitchers. Though he lacks physical projection, he's very good right now, throwing a low 90's fastball, a curveball with inconsistent break but good power, and a solid changeup, all of which he commands well. Really, aside from acclimating to higher levels and better hitters, all that he has to do to end up a major league starter is maintain his command and get more consistent with his curveball, which is saying a lot for a high schooler. His lack of a "to-do" list might also give him time to tinker with adding a slider and improving his changeup further. I like him, but those that are high on him really, really like him, and he has a good chance to move through the minors quickly by high school standards and be a mid-rotation starter for a long time, though his chances of becoming an ace are lower. He signed for just over $5.2 million, right at slot.
CBA-38: SS Xavier Edwards (my rank: 26)
Edwards is a high school shortstop from South Florida, one with speed and the ability to switch hit. Despite being a switch hitter, he shows great feel for the barrel and should post high batting averages and on-base percentages at the major league level. The swing is cleaner from the right side and will require some refinements on the left, but he is wiry and strong enough to hit for some power, though 20 homer seasons won't be in the books. With that exceptional speed, he will be able to remain a shortstop, though likely not a Gold Glove caliber one. At best, he could be a leadoff man in San Diego. He signed for $2.6 million, which is $721,700 above slot, and he is slashing .423/.515/.423 with no extra base hits but six stolen bases and a 4/6 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games in the rookie level Arizona League.
CBB-74: OF Grant Little (unranked)
Little was the first of eleven players drafted off an exceptional Texas Tech team this year, as he was draft eligible as a sophomore and slashed .370/.462/.642 with 12 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 38/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 65 games. He's an average sized hitter (6'1", 185 lbs), but he generates power through a quick, efficient swing and by gaining ground with his load, something I always like to see. Defensively, his position is kind of up in the air, as he could definitely play left field but that would put a lot of pressure on his bat. He may be able to handle center, and second base is also an option. No matter where he plays, his bat will have to carry him, but he may have just enough bat to profile as a 20 homer, .350 on-base percentage guy and start. He signed for $800,000, which is $12,200 below slot, and he's slashing .293/.340/.317 with three stolen bases and a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio through ten games in the short season Northwest League.
3-84: SS Owen Miller (unranked)
Miller started for three years at Illinois State, playing well as a freshman (.328/.368/.498) and as a sophomore (.325/.351/.498) before breaking out as a junior, slashing .384/.433/.537 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 23/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 52 games. He generates his moderate power from a fairly long swing which will have to be shortened in pro ball, though a low 9.1% strikeout rate this year will help him and it may not need to be shortened too much as long as he keeps catching up to better and better pitching. He doesn't walk much, which isn't really a problem now while he's hitting for power but might become one if he takes more of a contact-oriented approach, and with his speed he could steal a few bases. Defensively, he has a chance to stick at shortstop but may ultimately be a second baseman. He signed for $500,000, which is $194,500 below slot, and he is slashing .336/.373/.448 with two home runs and a 15/4 strikeout to walk ratio through 29 games in the Northwest League.
4-111: RHP Dylan Coleman (my rank: 78)
Coleman is a college arm with great stuff but who doesn't always get the results you would think he'd get. He had his best year for Missouri State this year, going 10-2 with a 3.77 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 129/59 strikeout to walk ratio in 102.2 innings, striking out opponents in bunches but also allowing too many walks. He has an extremely quick arm and throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's with a great slider and a good curveball, but he struggles to repeat his delivery and has trouble locating his pitches consistently. He'll require a lot of work for a college arm, but the 6'6" righty has a high ceiling and could be a #2 starter. He signed for $500,000, which is $2,800 below slot and started off in the Northwest League, throwing six innings and allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts before a promotion to Class A Fort Wayne. There, he has tossed 4.2 shutout innings on two hits, four walks, and four strikeouts.
5-141: OF Dwanya Williams-Sutton (unranked)
Williams-Sutton has the distinction of being the first Dwanya to ever play professional baseball, and he'll do so after a successful breakout season at East Carolina. As a junior this past year, he slashed .331/.477/.556 with seven home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games, though he did miss some time with a wrist injury. He's a very athletic, very strong outfielder who may be able to profile in center field but can fall back on right field. He does have his share of swing and misses (19% strikeout rate) but he also walks a fair amount (14.4%) and offers plenty of upside if the Padres can help him channel his strength and athleticism into more power. He did struggle on the Cape (.148/.324/.185, 11/4 K/BB), and his bat may be a little bit behind that of other college hitters, but his ceiling is higher. To boot, he's young for his grade, having just turned 21 a few days ago. He signed for $350,000, which is $25,600 below slot, and he's slashing .262/.295/.429 with a home run and a 12/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games in the Northwest League.
Others: 7th rounder Jawuan Harris, even at just 5'9", is an athlete through and through, as he plays on the Rutgers baseball team and football team, going so far as to play both ways on the gridiron as a safety and a wide receiver. As you can guess, he's pretty raw, but he has excellent speed that should help him stay in center field. He has never quite gotten it going at the plate, finishing his junior year slashing .246/.375/.387 with a pair of home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 47/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He swings and misses a lot (26.7% strikeout rate this year), as you would expect, but he also draws a surprising number of walks (15.9%), and the Padres will bank on their being untapped potential obscured by his football focus. 9th rounder Luke Becker has been a steady contributor at Kentucky, where he finished his junior season slashing .286/.410/.466 with seven home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 45/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. He's a second baseman that uses an advanced approach at the plate (14.3% walk rate) to get on base and drive balls into the gaps, though he swings and misses a bit much for a player of that profile (17.4% strikeout rate). If he can hone his plate discipline just a bit further, which I think he can, he could stick as a utility infielder and get some shots at starting at second base. 12th rounder Sean Guilbe is a borderline top five rounds talent, but he slid to the 12th due to signability and cost the Padres $175,000 against their bonus pool for a total of a $300,000 bonus. He's a powerful third baseman out of high school in Reading, Pennsylvania, one who can drive the ball out of any park but who may struggle with contact at the next level.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 Shortstops
Many shortstops end up moving off the position, but if they can stay there, their bats get a lot of slack and they can become extremely valuable players with just a little bit of offensive ability. This year's crop is extremely high school heavy, with the top five all coming from the prep ranks and the top college prospect being likely second or third rounder Cadyn Grenier. As usual, there is a lot of upside here.
1. Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA)
Turang is one of the tougher players to project in this year's draft. Entering his junior year of high school, he was an early favorite to go first overall in 2018, but his stock slipped with an unremarkable performance in the summer after that junior season and good but not great performance this spring. He still projects as a first round pick, potentially even approaching the top half of the round, due to his broad skill set including his feel to hit, possible power projection, and ability to play shortstop. Though he's very skinny, he has a whippy swing, and while I don't see him becoming a power hitter, his feel for the barrel should help him get to his power enough to where he hits 15 home runs per season. He has an advanced approach at the plate and runs very well, and when you combine that with good defense at shortstop, you have a guy that can set the table for the lineup. If he can regain the magic he had earlier in his high school career, he could be an All Star. He's committed to LSU.
2. Xavier Edwards (North Broward Prep, FL)
Edwards isn't as likely to stick at shortstop as Turang, but he's faster and can nearly match Turang's hitting ability. Despite being a switch hitter, he employs a very good approach at the plate and is a safer bet than most high schoolers to hit for high on-base percentages at the next level. Power is harder to project with high school switch hitters because their swings are often raw, and while Edwards won't hit 20 home runs in a season, there is enough power in that swing that he should hit plenty of doubles and triples in the majors. His excellent speed helps him get to everything at shortstop, but there is risk that he moves to second base if his arm doesn't improve. He is committed to Vanderbilt and is rumored to be a tough sign, though as a likely first round pick, it's hard to envision him attending college.
3. Jeremiah Jackson (St. Luke's Episcopal HS, AL)
Jackson is another player who risks not being able to stay at shortstop long term, but his bat is trending in the right direction. After a mediocre showing on the summer showcase circuit, he showed up for his senior year of high school with glasses and has seen his hitting improve tremendously, though there is worry that it could be an illusion as he faces inferior Mobile-area opponents. He employs an all-fields approach which has worked very well for him this spring, employing a long stride and quick hands to drive the ball to the gaps. He could start to hit for more power as he gets stronger, and if he can improve his defense at shortstop, he's got his ticket to the majors. However, he doesn't have the best reaction time out there, and may end up at second base. He's committed to Mississippi State.
4. Jonathan Ornelas (Kellis HS, AZ)
Ornelas is a fast rising prospect this spring, using his big swing and hard-nosed style of play to grow his ceiling. If he can make contact at an adequate rate, he could be a candidate to blast 20+ home runs per season, and when you combine that with his good defense and the ability to stick at shortstop, he's got a lot going for him. The only thing knocking him down is the volatility of his bat, as contact may be an issue at the next level, and while he generates a lot of power for his size, he's a skinny guy at 6' 165, and it's not true plus power. He should go in the second round and is committed to Tennessee.
5. Osiris Johnson (Encinal HS, CA)
Johnson is a very similar player to Ornelas, with the only real difference being that he's not as likely to stay at shortstop. He too has a big, powerful swing with at least some ability to make contact, and he has performed better and better as the high school season has gone on. He's also extremely young for a high school senior, not turning 18 until October, which buys him some slack if he doesn't develop immediately. His cousin is Jimmy Rollins, and he is committed to Cal State Fullerton.
Others: Cadyn Grenier (Oregon State), Blaze Alexander (IMG Academy), Jeremy Pena (Maine)
1. Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA)
Turang is one of the tougher players to project in this year's draft. Entering his junior year of high school, he was an early favorite to go first overall in 2018, but his stock slipped with an unremarkable performance in the summer after that junior season and good but not great performance this spring. He still projects as a first round pick, potentially even approaching the top half of the round, due to his broad skill set including his feel to hit, possible power projection, and ability to play shortstop. Though he's very skinny, he has a whippy swing, and while I don't see him becoming a power hitter, his feel for the barrel should help him get to his power enough to where he hits 15 home runs per season. He has an advanced approach at the plate and runs very well, and when you combine that with good defense at shortstop, you have a guy that can set the table for the lineup. If he can regain the magic he had earlier in his high school career, he could be an All Star. He's committed to LSU.
2. Xavier Edwards (North Broward Prep, FL)
Edwards isn't as likely to stick at shortstop as Turang, but he's faster and can nearly match Turang's hitting ability. Despite being a switch hitter, he employs a very good approach at the plate and is a safer bet than most high schoolers to hit for high on-base percentages at the next level. Power is harder to project with high school switch hitters because their swings are often raw, and while Edwards won't hit 20 home runs in a season, there is enough power in that swing that he should hit plenty of doubles and triples in the majors. His excellent speed helps him get to everything at shortstop, but there is risk that he moves to second base if his arm doesn't improve. He is committed to Vanderbilt and is rumored to be a tough sign, though as a likely first round pick, it's hard to envision him attending college.
3. Jeremiah Jackson (St. Luke's Episcopal HS, AL)
Jackson is another player who risks not being able to stay at shortstop long term, but his bat is trending in the right direction. After a mediocre showing on the summer showcase circuit, he showed up for his senior year of high school with glasses and has seen his hitting improve tremendously, though there is worry that it could be an illusion as he faces inferior Mobile-area opponents. He employs an all-fields approach which has worked very well for him this spring, employing a long stride and quick hands to drive the ball to the gaps. He could start to hit for more power as he gets stronger, and if he can improve his defense at shortstop, he's got his ticket to the majors. However, he doesn't have the best reaction time out there, and may end up at second base. He's committed to Mississippi State.
4. Jonathan Ornelas (Kellis HS, AZ)
Ornelas is a fast rising prospect this spring, using his big swing and hard-nosed style of play to grow his ceiling. If he can make contact at an adequate rate, he could be a candidate to blast 20+ home runs per season, and when you combine that with his good defense and the ability to stick at shortstop, he's got a lot going for him. The only thing knocking him down is the volatility of his bat, as contact may be an issue at the next level, and while he generates a lot of power for his size, he's a skinny guy at 6' 165, and it's not true plus power. He should go in the second round and is committed to Tennessee.
5. Osiris Johnson (Encinal HS, CA)
Johnson is a very similar player to Ornelas, with the only real difference being that he's not as likely to stay at shortstop. He too has a big, powerful swing with at least some ability to make contact, and he has performed better and better as the high school season has gone on. He's also extremely young for a high school senior, not turning 18 until October, which buys him some slack if he doesn't develop immediately. His cousin is Jimmy Rollins, and he is committed to Cal State Fullerton.
Others: Cadyn Grenier (Oregon State), Blaze Alexander (IMG Academy), Jeremy Pena (Maine)
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