First 5 rounds: Cole Winn (1-15), Owen White (2-55), Jonathan Ornelas (3-91), Mason Englert (4-119), Jayce Easley (5-149)
Also notable: Jax Biggers (8-239), Cameron Simmons (15-449), Austin Becker (37-1109)
The Rangers have never been a team to gravitate towards safe picks, so the five straight high school picks at the top of the draft make sense. They love high ceiling, athletic players, and while first rounder Cole Winn doesn't fit that mold when compared to other high schoolers, their other picks do and this was a typical Rangers draft, if a bit pitching heavy with three of their first four and five of their first seven picks being pitchers. They got good value, too, which is tough to do when you're only taking high schoolers.
1-15: RHP Cole Winn (my rank: 9)
Winn began the season as a player likely go to in the 25-40 range, but a big spring pushed him way up into the top half of the first round on most boards. The 6'2" righty is from Colorado but transferred to national powerhouse Orange Lutheran HS in Southern California to get more exposure, and it paid off. Winn throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, adding a very good slider and a good changeup, all of which he commands well for a high schooler. His stuff doesn't scream top half of the first round on paper, but he maintains it deep into starts and his feel for pitching is considered to be very good. His delivery is clean, and I had a good gut feeling about him before his rapid rise in the spring; he simply knows how to get the job done at a young age. Winn signed for $3.15 million, which is $588,500 below slot.
2-55: RHP Owen White (my rank: 54)
If Winn wasn't your typical Rangers pick in that he's more polish over stuff, White is just the opposite. The 6'3" righty from high school a little ways outside of Charlotte, North Carolina is all stuff and no polish. At his best, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, throws a tight curve, a hard slider, and a good changeup that all together make a very good, deep arsenal that would be able to keep hitters off balance late into games. Those are the positives. On the flip side, he doesn't always have his best stuff, and even when he does, he typically fades during his starts and it's not his best anymore once the middle innings roll around. He throws with effort as well, which combined with the lack of consistency and longevity within starts would look to point him towards a future in the bullpen. With his deep arsenal, though, the Rangers will try to fix his inefficiencies and mold him into a high end starter. It's a risky pick, but it could pay off big time if everything breaks right. White signed for $1.25 million, which is $7500 below slot.
3-91: SS Jonathan Ornelas (my rank: 57)
I really like this pick for the Rangers. Ornelas, a high schooler out of the Phoenix area, is a high ceiling shortstop with a lot of plusses and a lot of minuses. He has a long, whippy swing from the right side that already generates tons more power than you would expect from a skinny six footer, and with that skinny frame, he should grow into additional power as he matures. Because the swing is long, he sometimes struggles with contact, though I'd expect him to make just enough to tap that power consistently. While he's not a defensive whiz, he looks to have a decent chance to stick at shortstop depending on who tries to push him off the position in the Texas system, though he should end up as a good defensive third baseman if he doesn't stick at short. It's a risky profile, but for the third round, I think Ornelas offers very good upside with enough of a chance to reach it that it's more than worth gambling on. He signed for $622,800, right at slot value. Through eight games in the rookie level Arizona League, he is slashing .233/.343/.400 with a home run, seven stolen bases, and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio, though the sample is so small that none of it really means much.
4-119: RHP Mason Englert (unranked)
I didn't get a chance to rank Englert before the draft, though he likely would have cracked my top 100 if I had. He's a hometown guy, attending high school in Forney, Texas, right on the eastern edge of the Dallas/Forth Worth metro. Englert is a 6'4" righty with a low 90's fastball with sinking action, and he also throws a slider, curve, and changeup. None stand out as plus, though the slider has good break and the curve has good shape. With an easy delivery and enough present control to make it all play up, he profiles as a starter at the major league level, though he'll obviously have to earn his way up and make adjustments along the way. He signed for an even $1 million, which is $535,300 above slot.
Others: 8th rounder Jax Biggers, aside from having the best baseball name since Jeter Downs, played shortstop for Arkansas. He was better as a sophomore (.338/.423/.498, 4 HR, 30/30 K/BB) than as a junior (.280/.388/.382, 4 HR, 31/38 K/BB), though he was playing through a broken finger on his left hand this year. With average all around tools, he profiles as a utility infielder, but the plate discipline is great and should help him reach that floor. On top of that, the grit he showed in both hitting and playing defense with that broken left index finger is certainly a positive. 15th rounder Cameron Simmons is unlikely to sign, but I see him emerging as one of the top senior draft prospects in the 2019 draft. The UVA outfielder had a huge sophomore season in 2017 (.352/.432/.563, 9 HR, 40/23 K/BB) before missing the entire 2018 season with a shoulder injury. When I saw him play during that sophomore season, he actually looked like a top 50 pick, showing all five tools and just looking smooth doing it all. Anybody who knows me knows that as Virginia Tech student, I'm not too fond of UVA, but I'm looking forward to seeing what a healthy Simmons does next season. 37th rounder Austin Becker almost certainly doesn't sign, as he had the talent to go in the top 100 picks but looks set on attending Vanderbilt. The Columbus, Ohio area high schooler is a 6'6" righty that ranked 85th on my list and throws low to mid 90's with an inconsistent curveball and a changeup with some run. He pitched well on the showcase circuit with that curveball flashing plus often, but his command got away from him in the spring as he struggled to find his release point consistently, and his stock dropped. Hopefully, the Vanderbilt coaching staff can clean him up and make him a first round pick in 2021.
Saturday, June 30, 2018
Friday, June 29, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Seattle Mariners
First 5 rounds: Logan Gilbert (1-14), Josh Stowers (2-54), Cal Raleigh (3-90), Michael Plassmeyer (4-118), Nolan Hoffman (5-148)
Also notable: Joey Gerber (8-238), Keegan McGovern (9-268), Beau Branton (28-838)
It's tough to know what to make of the Mariners' draft this year, as they leaned heavily on college players (no high schoolers until 11th round) and also shied away from more traditional names, taking guys that many would consider to be reaches. Due to a busy semester, my rankings were a bit shallow this year and only went up to 110, but the M's only took one player on that list despite having four picks in the top 118. For now, the talent pool looks light; we'll see in a few years.
1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (my rank: 15)
If there is one pick that doesn't look like a reach right off the bat, it's their first round pick. Stetson righty Logan Gilbert has been one of the most feared pitchers in college baseball the past few years, finishing it off this year by going 11-2 with a 2.72 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 163/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 112 innings for the Hatters. As you might be able to guess from the stats, the projectable 6'6" righty has nasty stuff, headlined by a low to mid 90's fastball, both a slider and a curveball, and a useable changeup. He's a bit inconsistent, but when he's right, he shows four above average pitches right now, all from an easy delivery and a whippy right arm. He's your classic mid-first round college pitching prospect, one with upper rotation projectability but also with a high enough floor that the risk associated with high ceiling picks isn't really present with him. On top of that, he dominated the Cape Cod League last summer to the tune of a 1.72 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 31/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 31.1 innings, proving at the very least that his stuff plays up very well against college baseball's best. There was some time in the early to middle part of the season where he was looking more like a back end of the first round guy as his stuff backed up just a hair, but he fixed it and was looking as good as ever towards the end of the season. He also just turned 21 in May, and he signed right at slot for just under $3.9 million.
2-54: OF Josh Stowers (unranked)
Josh Stowers put up great numbers all around at Louisville this year, slashing .336/.477/.559 with nine home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 37/52 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games. From a performance perspective, there's really not much more you can ask. I saw him play back in April, when he was slashing a much less impressive .276/.435/.440; he got hot soon afterwards. Listed at 6'1" and 200 lbs, he's a very skinny guy who likely is physically maxed out, and he'll rely on speed and on-base ability to get to the majors. I don't really see his power playing well at SAFECO Field, but his plate discipline (12.8% strikeout rate, 17.9% walk rate) should help his hit tool play up and he should have no problem posting on-base percentages north of .350, and he should have enough power to the point where he can hit double digit home runs most years. At his ceiling, he looks like a very valuable player, but his floor is low enough that I question this pick in the second round. He signed for $1.1 million ($187,800 below slot) and is making the Mariners look good so far in a tiny sample, slashing .348/.464/.609 with a home run, four stolen bases, and an 8/3 strikeout to walk ratio in seven games in the Short-Season Northwest League. He's still riding that hot streak from the end of the college season, so we'll see how he fares as he builds up the sample size.
3-90: C Cal Raleigh (unranked)
Raleigh could go a number of ways. The Florida State catcher had a huge bounce back season this year, following up an awful sophomore season (.227/.330/.398, 9 HR, 39/39 K/BB) with a big junior year, slashing .326/.447/.583 with 13 home runs and a 43/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games, mostly against quality ACC pitching. You see the combination of power and plate discipline, evidenced by an 18% walk rate, and from a switch-hitting catcher, that's even more valuable. Unfortunately, he's far from a lock to stick at catcher, as he's a below average defender with a good chance of moving to first base. On top of that, Raleigh's 15.1% strikeout rate was fairly reasonable, but he doesn't have the quickest swing and might struggle against higher velocities in the minors. Basically, he's neither a lock to hit or a lock to stick behind the plate, so it's a risky pick in the third round. The Mariners must be very confident in either his bat, glove, or both though to take him here. He has not signed yet, with pick value sitting at $632,700.
4-118: LHP Michael Plassmeyer (unranked)
From Max Scherzer to Tanner Houck, there have been plenty of pitchers to come out of the University of Missouri with three quarter arm slots. Up next is Michael Plassmeyer, a 6'2" lefty with an upper 80's fastball and average stuff that plays up due to spin rates and command. In 14 starts for Mizzou this year, he went 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 103/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. Obviously, that strikeout rate will come down in pro ball against better hitters, but the combination of deception and command from the left side give him a chance to stick as a #4 or #5 starter. If not, he could bump his fastball into the low 90's as a reliever and become a long man. He signed for $425,000, which is $44,400 below slot. So far in the Northwest League, he has thrown three shutout innings over two starts, striking out six and walking none.
Others: 5th rounder Nolan Hoffman is a 6'4" right handed reliever out of Texas A&M who put up a 1.24 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 51/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 innings for the Aggies this year. A&M dropped him down to a sidearm/submarine slot this year, which has paid huge dividends, and he could move through the minors quickly. 8th rounder Joey Gerber is another reliever, putting up a good season at Illinois (3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 45/14 K/BB in 28.2 IP). He has a high effort delivery with a short arm path, throwing his fastball in the low to mid 90's and setting hitters down with a good slider. His command comes and goes, but that's not as important as a reliever compared to for starters. 9th rounder Keegan McGovern improved in each of his four years at Georgia, capping it off with a huge senior season where he slashed .319/.431/.644 with 18 home runs and a 46/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games. As a corner outfielder, his bat will have to carry him, but he proved he can crush SEC pitching and he could get to the majors fairly quickly if he makes enough contact. The Mariners already pushed him to Class A Clinton, where he already crushed two home runs in his first seven games against guys who have been in the minors a lot longer than he has. 28th rounder Beau Branton was barely noticeable on the Stanford roster for his first three years, and not just because he's 5'7". He slashed .220/.306/.256 as a freshman in 2015 then played just 29 games over the next two seasons, but he broke out for a .361/.440/.428 line, a 27/19 strikeout to walk ratio, and his first collegiate home run in 2018. His power projection is non-existent, but he's a scrappy hitter who can get on base and play a few positions in the field. He likely never gets past AA, but it's a fun profile.
Also notable: Joey Gerber (8-238), Keegan McGovern (9-268), Beau Branton (28-838)
It's tough to know what to make of the Mariners' draft this year, as they leaned heavily on college players (no high schoolers until 11th round) and also shied away from more traditional names, taking guys that many would consider to be reaches. Due to a busy semester, my rankings were a bit shallow this year and only went up to 110, but the M's only took one player on that list despite having four picks in the top 118. For now, the talent pool looks light; we'll see in a few years.
1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (my rank: 15)
If there is one pick that doesn't look like a reach right off the bat, it's their first round pick. Stetson righty Logan Gilbert has been one of the most feared pitchers in college baseball the past few years, finishing it off this year by going 11-2 with a 2.72 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 163/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 112 innings for the Hatters. As you might be able to guess from the stats, the projectable 6'6" righty has nasty stuff, headlined by a low to mid 90's fastball, both a slider and a curveball, and a useable changeup. He's a bit inconsistent, but when he's right, he shows four above average pitches right now, all from an easy delivery and a whippy right arm. He's your classic mid-first round college pitching prospect, one with upper rotation projectability but also with a high enough floor that the risk associated with high ceiling picks isn't really present with him. On top of that, he dominated the Cape Cod League last summer to the tune of a 1.72 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 31/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 31.1 innings, proving at the very least that his stuff plays up very well against college baseball's best. There was some time in the early to middle part of the season where he was looking more like a back end of the first round guy as his stuff backed up just a hair, but he fixed it and was looking as good as ever towards the end of the season. He also just turned 21 in May, and he signed right at slot for just under $3.9 million.
2-54: OF Josh Stowers (unranked)
Josh Stowers put up great numbers all around at Louisville this year, slashing .336/.477/.559 with nine home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 37/52 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games. From a performance perspective, there's really not much more you can ask. I saw him play back in April, when he was slashing a much less impressive .276/.435/.440; he got hot soon afterwards. Listed at 6'1" and 200 lbs, he's a very skinny guy who likely is physically maxed out, and he'll rely on speed and on-base ability to get to the majors. I don't really see his power playing well at SAFECO Field, but his plate discipline (12.8% strikeout rate, 17.9% walk rate) should help his hit tool play up and he should have no problem posting on-base percentages north of .350, and he should have enough power to the point where he can hit double digit home runs most years. At his ceiling, he looks like a very valuable player, but his floor is low enough that I question this pick in the second round. He signed for $1.1 million ($187,800 below slot) and is making the Mariners look good so far in a tiny sample, slashing .348/.464/.609 with a home run, four stolen bases, and an 8/3 strikeout to walk ratio in seven games in the Short-Season Northwest League. He's still riding that hot streak from the end of the college season, so we'll see how he fares as he builds up the sample size.
3-90: C Cal Raleigh (unranked)
Raleigh could go a number of ways. The Florida State catcher had a huge bounce back season this year, following up an awful sophomore season (.227/.330/.398, 9 HR, 39/39 K/BB) with a big junior year, slashing .326/.447/.583 with 13 home runs and a 43/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games, mostly against quality ACC pitching. You see the combination of power and plate discipline, evidenced by an 18% walk rate, and from a switch-hitting catcher, that's even more valuable. Unfortunately, he's far from a lock to stick at catcher, as he's a below average defender with a good chance of moving to first base. On top of that, Raleigh's 15.1% strikeout rate was fairly reasonable, but he doesn't have the quickest swing and might struggle against higher velocities in the minors. Basically, he's neither a lock to hit or a lock to stick behind the plate, so it's a risky pick in the third round. The Mariners must be very confident in either his bat, glove, or both though to take him here. He has not signed yet, with pick value sitting at $632,700.
4-118: LHP Michael Plassmeyer (unranked)
From Max Scherzer to Tanner Houck, there have been plenty of pitchers to come out of the University of Missouri with three quarter arm slots. Up next is Michael Plassmeyer, a 6'2" lefty with an upper 80's fastball and average stuff that plays up due to spin rates and command. In 14 starts for Mizzou this year, he went 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 103/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. Obviously, that strikeout rate will come down in pro ball against better hitters, but the combination of deception and command from the left side give him a chance to stick as a #4 or #5 starter. If not, he could bump his fastball into the low 90's as a reliever and become a long man. He signed for $425,000, which is $44,400 below slot. So far in the Northwest League, he has thrown three shutout innings over two starts, striking out six and walking none.
Others: 5th rounder Nolan Hoffman is a 6'4" right handed reliever out of Texas A&M who put up a 1.24 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 51/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 innings for the Aggies this year. A&M dropped him down to a sidearm/submarine slot this year, which has paid huge dividends, and he could move through the minors quickly. 8th rounder Joey Gerber is another reliever, putting up a good season at Illinois (3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 45/14 K/BB in 28.2 IP). He has a high effort delivery with a short arm path, throwing his fastball in the low to mid 90's and setting hitters down with a good slider. His command comes and goes, but that's not as important as a reliever compared to for starters. 9th rounder Keegan McGovern improved in each of his four years at Georgia, capping it off with a huge senior season where he slashed .319/.431/.644 with 18 home runs and a 46/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games. As a corner outfielder, his bat will have to carry him, but he proved he can crush SEC pitching and he could get to the majors fairly quickly if he makes enough contact. The Mariners already pushed him to Class A Clinton, where he already crushed two home runs in his first seven games against guys who have been in the minors a lot longer than he has. 28th rounder Beau Branton was barely noticeable on the Stanford roster for his first three years, and not just because he's 5'7". He slashed .220/.306/.256 as a freshman in 2015 then played just 29 games over the next two seasons, but he broke out for a .361/.440/.428 line, a 27/19 strikeout to walk ratio, and his first collegiate home run in 2018. His power projection is non-existent, but he's a scrappy hitter who can get on base and play a few positions in the field. He likely never gets past AA, but it's a fun profile.
Thursday, June 28, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Oakland A's
First 5 rounds: Kyler Murray (1-9), Jameson Hannah (2-50), Jeremy Eierman (CBB-70), Hogan Harris (3-85), Alfonso Rivas (4-113), Brady Feigl (5-143)
Also notable: J.J. Schwarz (8-233), Joe DeMers (11-323), Al Jones (25-743)
Like the Angels, the A's went heavy on college players this year, taking just one high schooler in their first 35 picks. On top of that, four of their first five picks were position players, and the first three are all known for their athleticism. They got some decent talent, but given the relative risk in the college players they drafted, I'm not so sure the upside is enough to make up for it.
1-9: OF Kyler Murray (my rank: 39)
Murray was hard to rank and is even harder to project, so while my ranking reflects poorly on the value here, this pick could make the A's look like geniuses or it could be a total bust. Murray is actually one of the best athletes in the country right now, as he is also a star quarterback. He could have been drafted in the top 50 picks out of high school in 2015, but he was also committed to Texas A&M to play quarterback as one of the top dual-threat recruits in the country. His career never materialized in College Station and he transferred to Oklahoma, where he struggled at the plate as a sophomore in the spring (.122/.317/.122, 20/13 K/BB) and then backed up Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield in the fall. Then, in the spring, something turned on for him and he slashed .296/.398/.556 with 10 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a 56/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games. Based on Murray's split focus with football and year off from baseball in 2016, you would expect him to be rusty, but his big junior year was a surprise. He's just 5'11" but shows power, surprising contact (24.8% strikeout rate is high, but not astronomical given the circumstances) and plate discipline (12.4% walk rate), and great range in center field. His arm plays below average despite being a Power 5 quarterback, but as he focuses on baseball, it should improve. The A's signed him for $4.66 million, which is $101,500 below slot, but he'll get the chance to take over as Mayfield's heir to the starting quarterback position in Norman in the fall. He's also young for a college junior, turning 21 in August, so that always helps. Still, this is the ninth overall pick and guys like Brady Singer (#2 on my list), Matthew Liberatore (#3), Travis Swaggerty (#8), and Cole Winn (#9) were still available. In my opinion, Swaggerty is the same player that Murray is but with a higher floor.
2-50: OF Jameson Hannah (my rank: 48)
Another pick, another speedy college outfielder. Dallas Baptist's Jameson Hannah finished up a junior season where he slashed .360/.444/.555 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and an even 35/35 strikeout to walk ratio. He's just 5'9", but he has a lot of Denard Span in his game. He'll never hit for power, but he has solid bat to ball skills as his 12.6% strikeout rate shows, and he can draw a walk as well, as that 12.6% rate also shows. He gets on base and plays good defense, and there's not much mystery in his profile. Think Span at best or a fourth outfielder type at worst. He signed for $1.8 million, which is $385,800 above slot. Seven games into his minor league career in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .280/.357/.440 with a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio; nothing unexpected there.
CBB-70: SS Jeremy Eierman (my rank: 30)
If Murray and Hannah were risers this year, Eierman was the opposite. The Missouri State star had a huge sophomore season last year (.313/.431/.675, 23 HR, 61/41 K/BB) but regressed this year (.287/.379/.516, 10 HR, 47/27 K/BB), changing his approach and selling out for home runs. Last year, his swing was short and compact and he was able to pile up home runs by barreling up the ball consistently and taking advantage of his home park's short fences. This year, his swing got long and he added more power to it, but he was unable to catch the barrel as much and that's why his power dropped. It will be interesting to see where his approach settles in pro ball, because he's not the biggest guy (6'1", 205 lbs) and might need that long swing to make his power play up with wood bats, but he also has such a high strikeout rate (18% with short swing in 2017, 24.1% with long swing in 2018) that he might never be able to adjust to the long swing. Either way, he has shown plenty of pure hitting ability and even if he goes back to the short swing, he could still succeed if his power doesn't play up. He's fast, having also stolen 21 bases this year, and he plays adequate defense at shortstop and might be able to stay there. If not, he should have no problem being an above-average defensive third baseman. Scouts love his attitude, describing him as a grinder who plays hard and wants to get better every day. He signed for $1.232 million, which is $359,600 above slot. Through seven games in the New York-Penn League, he is slashing .172/.200/.276 with a home run and a 7/0 strikeout to walk ratio, though a seven game sample means essentially nothing.
3-85: LHP Hogan Harris (my rank: 105)
Harris pitched well at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette, going 5-2 with a 2.66 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 54/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 innings. He's a 6'3" lefty with a stocky build, and he throws in the low to mid 90's with a good curveball and a slider and changeup as well. However, nagging injuries have slowed him down, which has hurt his command and kept him from putting up more than 67.2 innings in any of his three seasons in Lafayette. The A's will hope a pro training regimen will help him overcome those injury issues, and if he can stay on the mound consistently, his fringy command could improve enough to make him a #3 or #4 starter in a major league rotation. If not, he might be better off in the bullpen. He signed for $660,000, which is $23,800 below slot.
4-113: 1B Alfonso Rivas (unranked)
Rivas plays first base at Arizona, where he slashed .347/.429/.533 with seven home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games. Obviously, as a first baseman, his value is tied to his bat. With a .429 on-base percentage and a 14.3% strikeout rate, he has shown that he can get on base and that the hit tool will play up in pro ball. However, at six feet tall and with only moderate power for the time being, he's not a sure thing to reach the majors. He has strong wrists and should be able to generate more power with pro coaching, but as I said, he's a first baseman who will have to hit and hit well if he wants to be a valuable major leaguer. He signed for $446,500, which is $46,500 below slot. Through eight games in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .259/.412/.481 with a home run and a 4/7 strikeout to walk ratio; a good start, but too early to tell anything.
Others: 5th rounder Brady Feigl may not be the only pitcher of that name in pro baseball (what an unusual name for there to be two of), but he was a valuable veteran pitcher for a very young Ole Miss team this year by going 8-5 with a 4.03 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 93/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings. The 6'5" righty profiles as a workhorse, one who can eat innings as a back-end starter with command and durability. 8th rounder J.J. Schwarz burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2015 (.332/.398/.629, 18 HR), but he regressed as a sophomore (.290/.397/.456, 7 HR) and as a junior (.259/.351/.444, 12 HR) before bouncing back this year as a senior (.325/.404/.601, 12 HR, 53/28 K/BB). The longtime Florida Gator star leaves Gainesville with 49 home runs and 235 RBI over 262 games, and he'll go down as one of the most productive hitters in Gator history, but we're here to talk about the future. Schwartz was drafted as a catcher and will be given every chance to stick there, though there is a good chance he ends up at first. He has big power that he generates mostly through sheer strength, though I think he could cut his strikeout rate by extending his follow through during his swing. 11th rounder Joe DeMers threw a perfect game earlier this year against UC Riverside, finishing his season 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 92/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 123 innings for Washington. The 6'1" righty is listed at 240 pounds and he, like Feigl, looks like an innings-eating workhorse as a starter. 25th rounder Al Jones could have been a top two or three rounds pick out of high school in 2015, but he went to Vanderbilt instead and it hasn't quite added up yet. This year, he slashed .193/.276/.273 with a pair of home runs and an ugly 72/16 strikeout to walk ratio, really not doing much of anything for the Commodores other than playing good defense. I doubt he signs here, but he'll have to translate his raw skills to on-field results soon if he wants to get his career going.
Also notable: J.J. Schwarz (8-233), Joe DeMers (11-323), Al Jones (25-743)
Like the Angels, the A's went heavy on college players this year, taking just one high schooler in their first 35 picks. On top of that, four of their first five picks were position players, and the first three are all known for their athleticism. They got some decent talent, but given the relative risk in the college players they drafted, I'm not so sure the upside is enough to make up for it.
1-9: OF Kyler Murray (my rank: 39)
Murray was hard to rank and is even harder to project, so while my ranking reflects poorly on the value here, this pick could make the A's look like geniuses or it could be a total bust. Murray is actually one of the best athletes in the country right now, as he is also a star quarterback. He could have been drafted in the top 50 picks out of high school in 2015, but he was also committed to Texas A&M to play quarterback as one of the top dual-threat recruits in the country. His career never materialized in College Station and he transferred to Oklahoma, where he struggled at the plate as a sophomore in the spring (.122/.317/.122, 20/13 K/BB) and then backed up Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield in the fall. Then, in the spring, something turned on for him and he slashed .296/.398/.556 with 10 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a 56/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games. Based on Murray's split focus with football and year off from baseball in 2016, you would expect him to be rusty, but his big junior year was a surprise. He's just 5'11" but shows power, surprising contact (24.8% strikeout rate is high, but not astronomical given the circumstances) and plate discipline (12.4% walk rate), and great range in center field. His arm plays below average despite being a Power 5 quarterback, but as he focuses on baseball, it should improve. The A's signed him for $4.66 million, which is $101,500 below slot, but he'll get the chance to take over as Mayfield's heir to the starting quarterback position in Norman in the fall. He's also young for a college junior, turning 21 in August, so that always helps. Still, this is the ninth overall pick and guys like Brady Singer (#2 on my list), Matthew Liberatore (#3), Travis Swaggerty (#8), and Cole Winn (#9) were still available. In my opinion, Swaggerty is the same player that Murray is but with a higher floor.
2-50: OF Jameson Hannah (my rank: 48)
Another pick, another speedy college outfielder. Dallas Baptist's Jameson Hannah finished up a junior season where he slashed .360/.444/.555 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and an even 35/35 strikeout to walk ratio. He's just 5'9", but he has a lot of Denard Span in his game. He'll never hit for power, but he has solid bat to ball skills as his 12.6% strikeout rate shows, and he can draw a walk as well, as that 12.6% rate also shows. He gets on base and plays good defense, and there's not much mystery in his profile. Think Span at best or a fourth outfielder type at worst. He signed for $1.8 million, which is $385,800 above slot. Seven games into his minor league career in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .280/.357/.440 with a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio; nothing unexpected there.
CBB-70: SS Jeremy Eierman (my rank: 30)
If Murray and Hannah were risers this year, Eierman was the opposite. The Missouri State star had a huge sophomore season last year (.313/.431/.675, 23 HR, 61/41 K/BB) but regressed this year (.287/.379/.516, 10 HR, 47/27 K/BB), changing his approach and selling out for home runs. Last year, his swing was short and compact and he was able to pile up home runs by barreling up the ball consistently and taking advantage of his home park's short fences. This year, his swing got long and he added more power to it, but he was unable to catch the barrel as much and that's why his power dropped. It will be interesting to see where his approach settles in pro ball, because he's not the biggest guy (6'1", 205 lbs) and might need that long swing to make his power play up with wood bats, but he also has such a high strikeout rate (18% with short swing in 2017, 24.1% with long swing in 2018) that he might never be able to adjust to the long swing. Either way, he has shown plenty of pure hitting ability and even if he goes back to the short swing, he could still succeed if his power doesn't play up. He's fast, having also stolen 21 bases this year, and he plays adequate defense at shortstop and might be able to stay there. If not, he should have no problem being an above-average defensive third baseman. Scouts love his attitude, describing him as a grinder who plays hard and wants to get better every day. He signed for $1.232 million, which is $359,600 above slot. Through seven games in the New York-Penn League, he is slashing .172/.200/.276 with a home run and a 7/0 strikeout to walk ratio, though a seven game sample means essentially nothing.
3-85: LHP Hogan Harris (my rank: 105)
Harris pitched well at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette, going 5-2 with a 2.66 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 54/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 innings. He's a 6'3" lefty with a stocky build, and he throws in the low to mid 90's with a good curveball and a slider and changeup as well. However, nagging injuries have slowed him down, which has hurt his command and kept him from putting up more than 67.2 innings in any of his three seasons in Lafayette. The A's will hope a pro training regimen will help him overcome those injury issues, and if he can stay on the mound consistently, his fringy command could improve enough to make him a #3 or #4 starter in a major league rotation. If not, he might be better off in the bullpen. He signed for $660,000, which is $23,800 below slot.
4-113: 1B Alfonso Rivas (unranked)
Rivas plays first base at Arizona, where he slashed .347/.429/.533 with seven home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games. Obviously, as a first baseman, his value is tied to his bat. With a .429 on-base percentage and a 14.3% strikeout rate, he has shown that he can get on base and that the hit tool will play up in pro ball. However, at six feet tall and with only moderate power for the time being, he's not a sure thing to reach the majors. He has strong wrists and should be able to generate more power with pro coaching, but as I said, he's a first baseman who will have to hit and hit well if he wants to be a valuable major leaguer. He signed for $446,500, which is $46,500 below slot. Through eight games in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .259/.412/.481 with a home run and a 4/7 strikeout to walk ratio; a good start, but too early to tell anything.
Others: 5th rounder Brady Feigl may not be the only pitcher of that name in pro baseball (what an unusual name for there to be two of), but he was a valuable veteran pitcher for a very young Ole Miss team this year by going 8-5 with a 4.03 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 93/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings. The 6'5" righty profiles as a workhorse, one who can eat innings as a back-end starter with command and durability. 8th rounder J.J. Schwarz burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2015 (.332/.398/.629, 18 HR), but he regressed as a sophomore (.290/.397/.456, 7 HR) and as a junior (.259/.351/.444, 12 HR) before bouncing back this year as a senior (.325/.404/.601, 12 HR, 53/28 K/BB). The longtime Florida Gator star leaves Gainesville with 49 home runs and 235 RBI over 262 games, and he'll go down as one of the most productive hitters in Gator history, but we're here to talk about the future. Schwartz was drafted as a catcher and will be given every chance to stick there, though there is a good chance he ends up at first. He has big power that he generates mostly through sheer strength, though I think he could cut his strikeout rate by extending his follow through during his swing. 11th rounder Joe DeMers threw a perfect game earlier this year against UC Riverside, finishing his season 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 92/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 123 innings for Washington. The 6'1" righty is listed at 240 pounds and he, like Feigl, looks like an innings-eating workhorse as a starter. 25th rounder Al Jones could have been a top two or three rounds pick out of high school in 2015, but he went to Vanderbilt instead and it hasn't quite added up yet. This year, he slashed .193/.276/.273 with a pair of home runs and an ugly 72/16 strikeout to walk ratio, really not doing much of anything for the Commodores other than playing good defense. I doubt he signs here, but he'll have to translate his raw skills to on-field results soon if he wants to get his career going.
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels
First 5 rounds: Jordyn Adams (1-17), Jeremiah Jackson (2-57), Aaron Hernandez (3-93), Kyle Bradish (4-121), William English (5-151)
Also notable: Cristian Reyes (21-631), Isaiah Campbell (24-721), Jared Janczak (32-961)
The Angels took an interesting draft strategy this year, going exclusively for upside early in the draft. After taking two athletic high schoolers, they switched over to pitchers, grabbing mostly guys with very good stuff but with little chance at starting. In fact, they leaned extremely heavily on pitchers, taking eleven straight from the third to the thirteenth rounds and 26 total in the 30 rounds from 3-32.
1-17: OF Jordyn Adams (my rank: 33)
Last year, the Angels took a powerful, athletic high school outfielder with the tenth overall pick, and with all the success Jo Adell has had in the minors, they took another one with a similar name this year. Jordyn Adams was actually more well known as a football player than as a baseball player heading into the spring, as he was a four star recruit to play wide receiver at UNC, but an excellent showing at the National High School Invitational in March and subsequent great play pushed him all the way up draft boards. The Cary, North Carolina product is a high risk player, with the Angels banking on his tools translating to pro success. Those tools are as loud as it gets, as he shows excellent speed that can change games on both sides of the ball. His bat has come along, and though his swing is long, it's smooth and he should be able to add loft and therefore power in the future. Teams were increasingly liking his hit tool as the spring progressed, and he has the ceiling of a regular center fielder with good power and on-base abilities to go along with top of the scale speed. He signed for $4.1 million, which is $627,100 above slot.
2-57: SS Jeremiah Jackson (my rank: 53)
Jackson, out of Mobile, Alabama, is another high ceiling high schooler. Like Adams, he was also a late bloomer, showing well on the showcase circuit but really taking off once he got glasses for the spring season. He has a bit of a choppy swing, but he has already shown a well above average hit tool and some power potential, so mechanical changes could make him a very competent major league hitter. He has the ability to stick in the infield, though it's not clear where, as he could be a mediocre to decent shortstop but probably fits better at second or third base. At best, the Angels have an impact bat from an infield spot. He signed for just under $1.2 million, which ended up being just $2,500 below slot. It's way too early to make any conclusions whatsoever, but he homered in his pro debut and went 2-3 in his next game in the rookie level Arizona League.
3-93: RHP Aaron Hernandez (my rank: 62)
No, not the former Patriots tight end who was famous for some other stuff. This Aaron Hernandez was the first of the Angels' long line of pitchers, and he's one of the more interesting picks in the draft. Hernandez pitched for Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, but sat out his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play. As a junior this year for the Islanders, Hernandez put up mediocre numbers by going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 83 innings against more or less average competition in the Southland Conference. So what's the big deal with the skinny 6'1" right hander? Hernandez has excellent stuff, throwing his sinking fastball in the low to mid 90's with a curve, a slider, and a changeup, all grading out as average or better. Despite his slight frame and leg-heavy delivery, he maintains his stuff late into games, giving him a better chance to start than you'd expect. He runs into trouble for two reasons, though; one is that he often struggles to throw strikes and has to pitch from behind in the count, and the other is that his stuff sometimes plays down due to his mechanics. That leg bend when he drives off the mound brings him fairly low to the ground, and he loses deception that way. Mechanical changes will be needed, but he could be a mid-rotation starter or better if everything comes together right. I like him, and he signed for $547,500, which is $56,600 below slot.
4-121: RHP Kyle Bradish (my rank: 95)
Bradish had some eye popping numbers at hitter-friendly New Mexico State this year, going 9-3 with a 2.67 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 140/55 strikeout to walk ratio in 101 innings. He's a 6'4" righty with a wild delivery that gives him excellent stuff and poor command, somewhat similar to Hernandez, though he does not maintain his stuff into his starts. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, while his hammer curveball is a great secondary pitch. His slider and changeup are good as well, and together he proved to be too much for Western Athletic Conference hitters. He's likely a reliever, where he can focus on the fastball and curveball as well as on channeling the effort in his pitches into a few batters. If he can improve his command at all, he'll be a high leverage reliever. He signed for $397,500, which is $58,200 below slot.
21-631: RHP Cristian Reyes (unranked)
Sit back, because if Aaron Hernandez was one of the most interesting players in the draft, Cristian Reyes might be the most interesting. Not a well known prospect out of high school, he headed to JuCo and promptly blew out his shoulder. That was in 2014. Without health insurance to help him rehab, he tried to do it himself, but never quite got it right. For years. He ran out of NCAA eligibility and his shoulder didn't feel right, but he pitched in a Sunday league just to keep his dream alive. Somehow, he managed to build his arm strength back up, and the Angels found him in that Sunday league throwing 98 miles per hour. That's no joke. The Angels took a chance on him and now he has a chance to play pro ball despite pitching just 6.1 innings of JuCo ball in five years. He signed for $50,000. Here's an interesting article on him: https://www.mlb.com/news/how-cristian-reyes-became-an-underdog-draftee/c-280910286
Others: 24th rounder Isaiah Campbell, who is still playing in the College World Series for Arkansas, probably won't sign, but he's a high upside arm like just about everybody else in the Angels' draft. He was 4-6 with a 4.19 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 65/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 innings, showcasing great stuff but poor consistency. He's a 6'4" righty who consistently puts his fastball in the mid 90's, and his slider and changeup are pretty good as well, but he has a history of injuries and often struggles to throw strikes. 32nd rounder Jared Janczak was a well known pitcher at TCU for three years, going 17-7 with a 2.56 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 223/62 strikeout to walk ratio in 217.1 innings over his career. He's already 23 and likely profiles as a reliever.
Also notable: Cristian Reyes (21-631), Isaiah Campbell (24-721), Jared Janczak (32-961)
The Angels took an interesting draft strategy this year, going exclusively for upside early in the draft. After taking two athletic high schoolers, they switched over to pitchers, grabbing mostly guys with very good stuff but with little chance at starting. In fact, they leaned extremely heavily on pitchers, taking eleven straight from the third to the thirteenth rounds and 26 total in the 30 rounds from 3-32.
1-17: OF Jordyn Adams (my rank: 33)
Last year, the Angels took a powerful, athletic high school outfielder with the tenth overall pick, and with all the success Jo Adell has had in the minors, they took another one with a similar name this year. Jordyn Adams was actually more well known as a football player than as a baseball player heading into the spring, as he was a four star recruit to play wide receiver at UNC, but an excellent showing at the National High School Invitational in March and subsequent great play pushed him all the way up draft boards. The Cary, North Carolina product is a high risk player, with the Angels banking on his tools translating to pro success. Those tools are as loud as it gets, as he shows excellent speed that can change games on both sides of the ball. His bat has come along, and though his swing is long, it's smooth and he should be able to add loft and therefore power in the future. Teams were increasingly liking his hit tool as the spring progressed, and he has the ceiling of a regular center fielder with good power and on-base abilities to go along with top of the scale speed. He signed for $4.1 million, which is $627,100 above slot.
2-57: SS Jeremiah Jackson (my rank: 53)
Jackson, out of Mobile, Alabama, is another high ceiling high schooler. Like Adams, he was also a late bloomer, showing well on the showcase circuit but really taking off once he got glasses for the spring season. He has a bit of a choppy swing, but he has already shown a well above average hit tool and some power potential, so mechanical changes could make him a very competent major league hitter. He has the ability to stick in the infield, though it's not clear where, as he could be a mediocre to decent shortstop but probably fits better at second or third base. At best, the Angels have an impact bat from an infield spot. He signed for just under $1.2 million, which ended up being just $2,500 below slot. It's way too early to make any conclusions whatsoever, but he homered in his pro debut and went 2-3 in his next game in the rookie level Arizona League.
3-93: RHP Aaron Hernandez (my rank: 62)
No, not the former Patriots tight end who was famous for some other stuff. This Aaron Hernandez was the first of the Angels' long line of pitchers, and he's one of the more interesting picks in the draft. Hernandez pitched for Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, but sat out his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play. As a junior this year for the Islanders, Hernandez put up mediocre numbers by going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 83 innings against more or less average competition in the Southland Conference. So what's the big deal with the skinny 6'1" right hander? Hernandez has excellent stuff, throwing his sinking fastball in the low to mid 90's with a curve, a slider, and a changeup, all grading out as average or better. Despite his slight frame and leg-heavy delivery, he maintains his stuff late into games, giving him a better chance to start than you'd expect. He runs into trouble for two reasons, though; one is that he often struggles to throw strikes and has to pitch from behind in the count, and the other is that his stuff sometimes plays down due to his mechanics. That leg bend when he drives off the mound brings him fairly low to the ground, and he loses deception that way. Mechanical changes will be needed, but he could be a mid-rotation starter or better if everything comes together right. I like him, and he signed for $547,500, which is $56,600 below slot.
4-121: RHP Kyle Bradish (my rank: 95)
Bradish had some eye popping numbers at hitter-friendly New Mexico State this year, going 9-3 with a 2.67 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 140/55 strikeout to walk ratio in 101 innings. He's a 6'4" righty with a wild delivery that gives him excellent stuff and poor command, somewhat similar to Hernandez, though he does not maintain his stuff into his starts. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, while his hammer curveball is a great secondary pitch. His slider and changeup are good as well, and together he proved to be too much for Western Athletic Conference hitters. He's likely a reliever, where he can focus on the fastball and curveball as well as on channeling the effort in his pitches into a few batters. If he can improve his command at all, he'll be a high leverage reliever. He signed for $397,500, which is $58,200 below slot.
21-631: RHP Cristian Reyes (unranked)
Sit back, because if Aaron Hernandez was one of the most interesting players in the draft, Cristian Reyes might be the most interesting. Not a well known prospect out of high school, he headed to JuCo and promptly blew out his shoulder. That was in 2014. Without health insurance to help him rehab, he tried to do it himself, but never quite got it right. For years. He ran out of NCAA eligibility and his shoulder didn't feel right, but he pitched in a Sunday league just to keep his dream alive. Somehow, he managed to build his arm strength back up, and the Angels found him in that Sunday league throwing 98 miles per hour. That's no joke. The Angels took a chance on him and now he has a chance to play pro ball despite pitching just 6.1 innings of JuCo ball in five years. He signed for $50,000. Here's an interesting article on him: https://www.mlb.com/news/how-cristian-reyes-became-an-underdog-draftee/c-280910286
Others: 24th rounder Isaiah Campbell, who is still playing in the College World Series for Arkansas, probably won't sign, but he's a high upside arm like just about everybody else in the Angels' draft. He was 4-6 with a 4.19 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 65/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 innings, showcasing great stuff but poor consistency. He's a 6'4" righty who consistently puts his fastball in the mid 90's, and his slider and changeup are pretty good as well, but he has a history of injuries and often struggles to throw strikes. 32nd rounder Jared Janczak was a well known pitcher at TCU for three years, going 17-7 with a 2.56 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 223/62 strikeout to walk ratio in 217.1 innings over his career. He's already 23 and likely profiles as a reliever.
Tuesday, June 26, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Houston Astros
First 5 rounds: Seth Beer (1-28), Jayson Schroeder (2-66), Jeremy Pena (3-102), Alex McKenna (4-132), Cody Deason (5-162)
Also notable: Cesar Salazar (7-222), Austin Hansen (8-252), Scott Schreiber (9-282)
The Astros leaned heavily on college players this year, as after selecting high schooler Jayson Schroeder in the second round, they took players from four year colleges with 24 straight picks until selecting JuCo catcher Juan Paulino in the 27th round, and still didn't select another high schooler until taking Alex Bregman's younger brother A.J. as a goodwill move in the 35th round. It's an interesting strategy considering their success with high schoolers like Carlos Correa, Lance McCuller's Jr., and Forrest Whitely, but they are contending now so it would be nice to get reinforcements sooner rather than later. Though they stuck to college players, they did mix up their talent well, grabbing power, defense, safe starters, and high upside arms all with early picks.
1-28: 1B Seth Beer (my rank: 42)
We knew before the draft started that Beer was going to be a polarizing pick, and here we are. If you pay any level of real attention to the draft or college baseball, you know who he is. The Clemson slugger broke out with a sensational freshman season in 2016 when he slashed .369/.535/.700 with 18 home runs and a ridiculous 27/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. Through his performance, he earned the Dick Howser trophy as a 19 year old and was put on the short list of candidates to go first overall in the 2018 draft. Obviously, that didn't happen, as he has regressed to just "excellent" rather than "sensational" at the plate. As a sophomore in 2017, he slashed .298/.478/.606 with 16 home runs and a 35/64 strikeout to walk ratio, then as a junior this year, he slashed .301/.456/.642 with 22 home runs and a 36/54 strikeout to walk ratio. The bat is clearly elite and ACC pitching does not know how to handle him, as is evidenced by his 56 home runs, 20.5% walk rate, and 11.2% strikeout rate in 188 games. However, he was not good with the Collegiate Team USA in two summers (.208/.344/.287) in his only pre-draft public exposure to wood bats, and his swing is choppier than many would hope, leading to questions about his projectability. He provides no value on defense as he is a liability in the outfield due to his bottom of the scale speed, and he's not much better at first base. That means his entire value is tied to his bat, and if his incredible ACC performance can't translate to pro ball due to his choppy swing and possible holes in his plate coverage, he's in trouble. That said, the Astros have great player development, and he is slashing .293/.431/.659 with four home runs and a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio in eleven games so far for the Astros' New York-Penn League affiliate. That's a small sample but it's a very good sign for him going forward, perhaps more so than for other prospects who got off to hot starts in the minors. If Beer reaches his ceiling, he's a middle of the order bat who could hit 30 home runs and consistently get on base at a .400 clip, a.k.a. Freddie Freeman with a bit more power. His $2.25 million signing bonus was just about $150,000 below slot.
2-66: RHP Jayson Schroeder (my rank: 74)
I like this pick for the Astros. The lone high schooler picked in the first 34 rounds for Houston, Schroeder was a late riser for the draft coming out of Kirkland, Washington, near Seattle. The 6'2" righty has a very good combination of floor and ceiling for a high schooler, especially one that was never considered a candidate for the first round. He throws his fastball in the low 90's with a very good curveball, and he also already has a slider and changeup to go along with them. He commands it all pretty well, and with pro coaching, he should be able to clean up his awkward arm action, especially considering his athleticism. He was rumored to be a tough sign with a strong University of Washington commitment and that has proven to be true, though Houston remains hopeful they can sign him by going over their $965,300 slot value. They currently are a total of $301,900 below slot with all of their picks, and so assuming unsigned fourth rounder Alex McKenna signs at slot, they could presumably offer Schroeder nearly $1.3 million.
3-102: SS Jeremy Pena (unranked)
It's not often that scouts find themselves in Maine looking at early round candidates, but University of Maine shortstop Jeremy Pena drew them there for just that. The Rhode Island native is a relatively light hitting, slick fielding infielder who will be able to stay at shortstop and if he can hit just enough, he'll get to them majors. His .308/.393/.469 slash line this year in a weak America East Conference, combined with five home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 42/27 strikeout to walk ratio, makes him sound like a contact hitter, but his swing has some loft and it is easy to see him hitting for some moderate power if he can catch up to pro pitching. Personally, I see this as a reach, as I think it's unlikely he becomes much more than a utility infielder. Fortunately, he's young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September. He signed for $535,000, which is $14,700 below slot. It's only eleven games, but so far in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .214/.353/.238 without a home run and with a 10/8 strikeout to walk ratio.
4-132: OF Alex McKenna (my rank: 96)
McKenna has been a consistent performer at Cal Poly, capping it off with a solid junior year where he slashed .339/.424/.506 with five home runs, six stolen bases, and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio. Like Pena, he also doesn't turn 21 until September, and while he's not quite as valuable on defense, his bat has a better chance at playing up. He's currently more of a line drive hitter, but he could manage some power if he adds loft to his swing. The 14.1% strikeout rate is pretty decent and could help him with that transition, though he doesn't walk all that much (9.8%) and will need some things to break right for that to happen. Personally, I get a little bit worried he'll end up a tweener with not quite enough power or quite enough on-base ability, though it is the fourth round and his solid chance of turning into a good outfielder makes him worth the fourth round pick. He hasn't signed yet, but that is almost certainly due to Jayson Schroeder's bonus situation, so expect him to sign around the same time the Astros make a decision on Schroeder.
Others: 5th rounder Cody Deason served as the University of Arizona's ace this year, going 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 84/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. He's a 6'3" right hander with a low 90's fastball, a very good curveball, and a decent changeup, all of which he can command fairly well. He'll need to either add movement to his fastball or improve his command if he wants to make it as a major league starter, but those aren't insurmountable tasks and he's good value in the fifth round. 7th rounder Cesar Salazar, besides having a cool name, was Deason's catcher for three years at Arizona, capping his career with a .339/.432/.471 slash line, four home runs, and a 26/21 strikeout to walk ratio. He's just 5'9", but he kept a very low strikeout rate throughout his time in Tucson (including 11.2% this year), gets on base, and plays good defense. He's your typical backup catching prospect. 8th rounder Austin Hansen, unrelated to fellow former Oklahoma standout and current top White Sox prospect Alec Hansen, has been a very good reliever for the Sooners. He put up a 3.29 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 52/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 38 innings, showing a mid 90's fastball, a good changeup, and a developing breaking ball. He's a high ceiling, low floor relief prospect. 9th rounder Scott Schreiber has been a four year producer at Nebraska, driving the Cornhusker offense out in Lincoln. He had his best year this year, slashing .369/.446/.692 with 18 home runs and a 48/28 strikeout to walk ratio. It remains to be seen whether that performance can translate to pro ball, as his walk rate was only moderate even as he was one of the most feared hitters in the Big 10 (11.2%), and his 33/2 strikeout to walk ratio on the Cape was ugly even if he hit .255 with three home runs. His best years were probably in college, but getting a guy with a .474 wOBA in a Power 5 conference in the ninth round is something regardless.
Also notable: Cesar Salazar (7-222), Austin Hansen (8-252), Scott Schreiber (9-282)
The Astros leaned heavily on college players this year, as after selecting high schooler Jayson Schroeder in the second round, they took players from four year colleges with 24 straight picks until selecting JuCo catcher Juan Paulino in the 27th round, and still didn't select another high schooler until taking Alex Bregman's younger brother A.J. as a goodwill move in the 35th round. It's an interesting strategy considering their success with high schoolers like Carlos Correa, Lance McCuller's Jr., and Forrest Whitely, but they are contending now so it would be nice to get reinforcements sooner rather than later. Though they stuck to college players, they did mix up their talent well, grabbing power, defense, safe starters, and high upside arms all with early picks.
1-28: 1B Seth Beer (my rank: 42)
We knew before the draft started that Beer was going to be a polarizing pick, and here we are. If you pay any level of real attention to the draft or college baseball, you know who he is. The Clemson slugger broke out with a sensational freshman season in 2016 when he slashed .369/.535/.700 with 18 home runs and a ridiculous 27/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. Through his performance, he earned the Dick Howser trophy as a 19 year old and was put on the short list of candidates to go first overall in the 2018 draft. Obviously, that didn't happen, as he has regressed to just "excellent" rather than "sensational" at the plate. As a sophomore in 2017, he slashed .298/.478/.606 with 16 home runs and a 35/64 strikeout to walk ratio, then as a junior this year, he slashed .301/.456/.642 with 22 home runs and a 36/54 strikeout to walk ratio. The bat is clearly elite and ACC pitching does not know how to handle him, as is evidenced by his 56 home runs, 20.5% walk rate, and 11.2% strikeout rate in 188 games. However, he was not good with the Collegiate Team USA in two summers (.208/.344/.287) in his only pre-draft public exposure to wood bats, and his swing is choppier than many would hope, leading to questions about his projectability. He provides no value on defense as he is a liability in the outfield due to his bottom of the scale speed, and he's not much better at first base. That means his entire value is tied to his bat, and if his incredible ACC performance can't translate to pro ball due to his choppy swing and possible holes in his plate coverage, he's in trouble. That said, the Astros have great player development, and he is slashing .293/.431/.659 with four home runs and a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio in eleven games so far for the Astros' New York-Penn League affiliate. That's a small sample but it's a very good sign for him going forward, perhaps more so than for other prospects who got off to hot starts in the minors. If Beer reaches his ceiling, he's a middle of the order bat who could hit 30 home runs and consistently get on base at a .400 clip, a.k.a. Freddie Freeman with a bit more power. His $2.25 million signing bonus was just about $150,000 below slot.
2-66: RHP Jayson Schroeder (my rank: 74)
I like this pick for the Astros. The lone high schooler picked in the first 34 rounds for Houston, Schroeder was a late riser for the draft coming out of Kirkland, Washington, near Seattle. The 6'2" righty has a very good combination of floor and ceiling for a high schooler, especially one that was never considered a candidate for the first round. He throws his fastball in the low 90's with a very good curveball, and he also already has a slider and changeup to go along with them. He commands it all pretty well, and with pro coaching, he should be able to clean up his awkward arm action, especially considering his athleticism. He was rumored to be a tough sign with a strong University of Washington commitment and that has proven to be true, though Houston remains hopeful they can sign him by going over their $965,300 slot value. They currently are a total of $301,900 below slot with all of their picks, and so assuming unsigned fourth rounder Alex McKenna signs at slot, they could presumably offer Schroeder nearly $1.3 million.
3-102: SS Jeremy Pena (unranked)
It's not often that scouts find themselves in Maine looking at early round candidates, but University of Maine shortstop Jeremy Pena drew them there for just that. The Rhode Island native is a relatively light hitting, slick fielding infielder who will be able to stay at shortstop and if he can hit just enough, he'll get to them majors. His .308/.393/.469 slash line this year in a weak America East Conference, combined with five home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 42/27 strikeout to walk ratio, makes him sound like a contact hitter, but his swing has some loft and it is easy to see him hitting for some moderate power if he can catch up to pro pitching. Personally, I see this as a reach, as I think it's unlikely he becomes much more than a utility infielder. Fortunately, he's young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September. He signed for $535,000, which is $14,700 below slot. It's only eleven games, but so far in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .214/.353/.238 without a home run and with a 10/8 strikeout to walk ratio.
4-132: OF Alex McKenna (my rank: 96)
McKenna has been a consistent performer at Cal Poly, capping it off with a solid junior year where he slashed .339/.424/.506 with five home runs, six stolen bases, and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio. Like Pena, he also doesn't turn 21 until September, and while he's not quite as valuable on defense, his bat has a better chance at playing up. He's currently more of a line drive hitter, but he could manage some power if he adds loft to his swing. The 14.1% strikeout rate is pretty decent and could help him with that transition, though he doesn't walk all that much (9.8%) and will need some things to break right for that to happen. Personally, I get a little bit worried he'll end up a tweener with not quite enough power or quite enough on-base ability, though it is the fourth round and his solid chance of turning into a good outfielder makes him worth the fourth round pick. He hasn't signed yet, but that is almost certainly due to Jayson Schroeder's bonus situation, so expect him to sign around the same time the Astros make a decision on Schroeder.
Others: 5th rounder Cody Deason served as the University of Arizona's ace this year, going 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 84/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. He's a 6'3" right hander with a low 90's fastball, a very good curveball, and a decent changeup, all of which he can command fairly well. He'll need to either add movement to his fastball or improve his command if he wants to make it as a major league starter, but those aren't insurmountable tasks and he's good value in the fifth round. 7th rounder Cesar Salazar, besides having a cool name, was Deason's catcher for three years at Arizona, capping his career with a .339/.432/.471 slash line, four home runs, and a 26/21 strikeout to walk ratio. He's just 5'9", but he kept a very low strikeout rate throughout his time in Tucson (including 11.2% this year), gets on base, and plays good defense. He's your typical backup catching prospect. 8th rounder Austin Hansen, unrelated to fellow former Oklahoma standout and current top White Sox prospect Alec Hansen, has been a very good reliever for the Sooners. He put up a 3.29 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 52/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 38 innings, showing a mid 90's fastball, a good changeup, and a developing breaking ball. He's a high ceiling, low floor relief prospect. 9th rounder Scott Schreiber has been a four year producer at Nebraska, driving the Cornhusker offense out in Lincoln. He had his best year this year, slashing .369/.446/.692 with 18 home runs and a 48/28 strikeout to walk ratio. It remains to be seen whether that performance can translate to pro ball, as his walk rate was only moderate even as he was one of the most feared hitters in the Big 10 (11.2%), and his 33/2 strikeout to walk ratio on the Cape was ugly even if he hit .255 with three home runs. His best years were probably in college, but getting a guy with a .474 wOBA in a Power 5 conference in the ninth round is something regardless.
Wednesday, June 20, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Minnesota Twins
First 5 rounds: Trevor Larnach (1-20), Ryan Jeffers (2-59), DaShawn Keirsey (4-124), Cole Sands (5-154)
Also notable: Charles Mack (6-184), Chris Williams (8-244), Regi Grace (10-304)
Aside from their first pick, the Twins seemed to avoid most of the conventional names, instead going for less well known, perhaps bargain picks so they could save money and go over slot on a couple of high schoolers at the back end of the first ten rounds. From the surface, it doesn't look like a great draft for Minnesota, but only time will tell if they were onto something and found talent hiding in plain sight.
1-20: OF Trevor Larnach (my rank: 14)
Larnach, who is still playing in the College World Series for Oregon State, was their only big name selection and is by far my favorite pick of theirs. After hitting just three home runs in his first two seasons in Corvallis, Larnach broke out in a huge way this year by slashing .336/.466/.645 with 18 home runs and a 54/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games heading into the CWS. He lacks much defensive value, profiling as a decent left fielder or a mediocre right fielder, but the bat can definitely carry him. The power is real, as his exit velocities have been exceptional this spring coming from a quick left handed swing that gets the barrel into the zone in a hurry. The strikeout rate is high at 19.5%, but so is the walk rate at 17.3%, and he profiles as a guy who can hit 25 home runs per season in the majors while maintaining on-base percentages north of .350. He's your typical number five hitter in a lineup. Slot value is $3.12 million, but he obviously hasn't signed yet as he plays in Omaha.
2-59: C Ryan Jeffers (unranked)
UNC-Wilmington was known as the premier mid-major offense school for a few years until Tennessee Tech took over this year, and right in the middle of it was catcher Ryan Jeffers. The 6'4" Raleigh native capped his three year career with a huge junior season, slashing .315/.460/.635 with 16 home runs and a 44/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games. Though his track record with wood bats isn't all that great, his frame will be very conducive to helping his power play up at the next level. Behind the plate, he's a decent defender, showing a good chance to stick as a catcher but no guarantee. He already signed for $800,000, which is $340,600 below slot, and knocked a pair of singles in his minor league debut at rookie level Elizabethton.
4-124: OF DaShawn Keirsey (unranked)
The Twins didn't have a third round pick, but they went over slot in the fourth round to pick up Utah outfielder DaShawn Keirsey. His sophomore season ended with a violent crash against an outfield wall and a mangled hip, but he still put together a great junior year by slashing .386/.440/.609 with four home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 32/15 strikeout to walk ratio. He shows pretty good contact ability, as evidenced by the 14.2% strikeout rate, though he doesn't walk much (6.7%) and doesn't hit for much power. That power is mostly to the gaps right now, as he did hit 23 doubles and five triples as opposed to the four home runs, and he may add more as he fills out his frame, though likely not much. He was a plus runner before the injury, and while it took him a while to get going this year, he still shows good speed. Personally, I think the overall package is a little light, especially considering that his $600,000 signing bonus was $157,400 over slot.
5-154: RHP Cole Sands (unranked)
Sands was a well-regarded prospect coming out of high school in 2015, and while he hasn't really built on his stock at Florida State, it hasn't faded too far. He's been fairly inconsistent, and this year he went 7-4 with a 4.54 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an 88/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 75.1 innings. He has the talent to be a major league starter, and he has flashed it frequently, but his inconsistency has kept him from putting it all together for stretches at a time. He throws in the low to mid 90's and flashes a plus slider at times, and his changeup is decent. When he's going right, he has three good pitches that could lead him to a mid-rotation future, but when he's not, his stuff flattens out and he struggles to throw strikes. Hopefully pro coaching can iron it all out. He hasn't signed yet, with pick value sitting at $330,400.
Others: 6th rounder Charles Mack is very raw as a player, which is understandable because he's a high schooler out of Buffalo. He'll be a project for the Twins, because his hands start low and won't be able to climb fast enough to catch up to pro pitching. He does hit for plenty of power when he gets into one, which is the incentive here, and he may be able to stick in the infield as a second or third baseman. 8th rounder Chris Williams was a big time power hitter in the middle of the Clemson lineup, slashing .281/.401/.562 with 18 home runs and a 52/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 63 games. He's a stocky 6'1" guy who will have to hit for more contact, but he brings a lot of established power for an eighth rounder. He's not a lock to stick behind the plate, with a pretty decent chance he ends up at first base, putting pressure on his bat. 10th rounder Regi Grace was one of two overs-slot signings at the end of the top ten rounds, showing an improving fastball that's up into the mid 90's at this point and an improving breaking ball as well. The 6'1" high school lefty from the Jackson, Mississippi area is definitely a project, considering his mechanics are mediocre, but he has high upside.
Also notable: Charles Mack (6-184), Chris Williams (8-244), Regi Grace (10-304)
Aside from their first pick, the Twins seemed to avoid most of the conventional names, instead going for less well known, perhaps bargain picks so they could save money and go over slot on a couple of high schoolers at the back end of the first ten rounds. From the surface, it doesn't look like a great draft for Minnesota, but only time will tell if they were onto something and found talent hiding in plain sight.
1-20: OF Trevor Larnach (my rank: 14)
Larnach, who is still playing in the College World Series for Oregon State, was their only big name selection and is by far my favorite pick of theirs. After hitting just three home runs in his first two seasons in Corvallis, Larnach broke out in a huge way this year by slashing .336/.466/.645 with 18 home runs and a 54/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games heading into the CWS. He lacks much defensive value, profiling as a decent left fielder or a mediocre right fielder, but the bat can definitely carry him. The power is real, as his exit velocities have been exceptional this spring coming from a quick left handed swing that gets the barrel into the zone in a hurry. The strikeout rate is high at 19.5%, but so is the walk rate at 17.3%, and he profiles as a guy who can hit 25 home runs per season in the majors while maintaining on-base percentages north of .350. He's your typical number five hitter in a lineup. Slot value is $3.12 million, but he obviously hasn't signed yet as he plays in Omaha.
2-59: C Ryan Jeffers (unranked)
UNC-Wilmington was known as the premier mid-major offense school for a few years until Tennessee Tech took over this year, and right in the middle of it was catcher Ryan Jeffers. The 6'4" Raleigh native capped his three year career with a huge junior season, slashing .315/.460/.635 with 16 home runs and a 44/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games. Though his track record with wood bats isn't all that great, his frame will be very conducive to helping his power play up at the next level. Behind the plate, he's a decent defender, showing a good chance to stick as a catcher but no guarantee. He already signed for $800,000, which is $340,600 below slot, and knocked a pair of singles in his minor league debut at rookie level Elizabethton.
4-124: OF DaShawn Keirsey (unranked)
The Twins didn't have a third round pick, but they went over slot in the fourth round to pick up Utah outfielder DaShawn Keirsey. His sophomore season ended with a violent crash against an outfield wall and a mangled hip, but he still put together a great junior year by slashing .386/.440/.609 with four home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 32/15 strikeout to walk ratio. He shows pretty good contact ability, as evidenced by the 14.2% strikeout rate, though he doesn't walk much (6.7%) and doesn't hit for much power. That power is mostly to the gaps right now, as he did hit 23 doubles and five triples as opposed to the four home runs, and he may add more as he fills out his frame, though likely not much. He was a plus runner before the injury, and while it took him a while to get going this year, he still shows good speed. Personally, I think the overall package is a little light, especially considering that his $600,000 signing bonus was $157,400 over slot.
5-154: RHP Cole Sands (unranked)
Sands was a well-regarded prospect coming out of high school in 2015, and while he hasn't really built on his stock at Florida State, it hasn't faded too far. He's been fairly inconsistent, and this year he went 7-4 with a 4.54 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an 88/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 75.1 innings. He has the talent to be a major league starter, and he has flashed it frequently, but his inconsistency has kept him from putting it all together for stretches at a time. He throws in the low to mid 90's and flashes a plus slider at times, and his changeup is decent. When he's going right, he has three good pitches that could lead him to a mid-rotation future, but when he's not, his stuff flattens out and he struggles to throw strikes. Hopefully pro coaching can iron it all out. He hasn't signed yet, with pick value sitting at $330,400.
Others: 6th rounder Charles Mack is very raw as a player, which is understandable because he's a high schooler out of Buffalo. He'll be a project for the Twins, because his hands start low and won't be able to climb fast enough to catch up to pro pitching. He does hit for plenty of power when he gets into one, which is the incentive here, and he may be able to stick in the infield as a second or third baseman. 8th rounder Chris Williams was a big time power hitter in the middle of the Clemson lineup, slashing .281/.401/.562 with 18 home runs and a 52/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 63 games. He's a stocky 6'1" guy who will have to hit for more contact, but he brings a lot of established power for an eighth rounder. He's not a lock to stick behind the plate, with a pretty decent chance he ends up at first base, putting pressure on his bat. 10th rounder Regi Grace was one of two overs-slot signings at the end of the top ten rounds, showing an improving fastball that's up into the mid 90's at this point and an improving breaking ball as well. The 6'1" high school lefty from the Jackson, Mississippi area is definitely a project, considering his mechanics are mediocre, but he has high upside.
Tuesday, June 19, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Kansas City Royals
First 5 rounds: Brady Singer (1-18), Jackson Kowar (1-33), Daniel Lynch (1-34), Kris Bubic (CBA-40), Jonathan Bowlan (2-58), Kyle Isbel (3-94), Eric Cole (4-122), Austin Cox (5-152)
Also notable: Zach Haake (6-182), Jackson Lueck (8-242)
The Royals had a very clear strategy here, taking college pitchers with each of their first five picks and waiting until their twelfth pick to take a high school player at all. Their farm system is bare bones empty right now, so they didn't have time to wait around for some high schoolers to develop; they took high schoolers with their first two picks in 2017 and junior college players with their next two. With five of the first 58 picks, you would hope they came away with a good draft, and while I don't like all of their picks, they definitely did a great job replenishing their farm system.
1-18: RHP Brady Singer (my rank: 2)
Brady Singer, long considered a favorite to go first overall until Casey Mize took over that position midway through the spring, had one of the most unexpected falls of this year's draft. The Florida Gators ace won the Dick Howser Trophy as the top player in college baseball this year, going 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 107/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 101.2 innings in the SEC (heading into the College World Series), the toughest conference in college baseball. He's your classic top of the rotation prospect, bringing stuff, command, projectability, a track record, and makeup to the table. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's with plenty of run, and his slider can be a wipeout pitch at times. His changeup is advanced as well, and he commands it all with confidence. The 6'5" righty has plenty of room to grow and add good weight, and while his delivery can get a bit out of sync, his arm is very loose and he seems like less of an injury risk than most pitchers. He supposedly is a very hard worker, and anybody who has watched him play know he is a very tough competitor. The only question with Singer is his consistency, as he had some tough starts earlier in the season and his stuff has flattened out at times. I think that it's nothing pro coaching can't smooth out, and the Royals have to be very, very happy to get a talent like Singer with the 18th pick. He hasn't signed yet because he is still playing in the College World Series (I'm actually watching him on the mound against Texas Tech as I write this sentence), with slot value sitting at a little over $3.3 million for this pick.
1-33: RHP Jackson Kowar (my rank: 16)
Another pick, another 6'5" Florida Gator right hander who fell just a little farther than expected. Entering the College World Series, Kowar is 9-5 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 105.2 innings. Like Singer, he throws his fastball in the mid 90's, though it's his changeup that that sets him apart rather than his breaking ball, just dropping off before it gets to the plate. That curve is going to need some work, as it looks good at times but lacks the consistency to be a reliable out pitch in pro ball at this point. Like Singer, he's projectable and should be able to add more velocity to his fastball. Obviously, he's still pitching in the CWS, and slot value is just over $2.1 million.
1-34: LHP Daniel Lynch (my rank: 35)
Lynch put up two mediocre seasons at the University of Virginia in 2016 and 2017, not getting his ERA below 5.00 in either season, but something clicked for him on the Cape over the summer and he held it into the spring. On the Cape, he was 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 25/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 30.1 innings, and with UVA this year, he was 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 105/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 88.2 innings. The numbers weren't excellent in Charlottesville, but his stuff looks miles better than it did during his first two seasons. His fastball is now up into the low 90's, and his curve, slider, and advanced changeup can keep hitters off balance. He commands it all very well, and as a 6'4" lefty with a smooth delivery, it's easy to see him adding velocity without sacrificing command. Apparently, the bump in his stuff came when he shed the typical UVA pitching style for his own, as UVA pitchers have a terrible track record. He looks like a back-end starter now, but don't underestimate him. He has already signed for just under $1.7 million, saving the Royals $369,200 for their bonus pool.
CBA-40: LHP Kris Bubic (my rank: 59)
I'm not a huge fan of this pick, but Bubic is a good player. The Stanford lefty finished up his junior season 8-1 with a 2.62 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 101/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings. He's not a power pitcher, throwing his fastball in the low 90's, and he's not projectable, standing at 6'3" with a stocky frame. Instead, he relies on pretty good command and a very good changeup with plenty of run and drop on it. The curveball is mediocre, but he mixes his pitches well enough to get the most out of them. The stuff played up on the Cape Cod League last summer, where he was 4-1 with a 1.65 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 41/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings, mostly due to his pitchability. Bubic is also young for the class, not turning 21 until August, so together it makes for a very nice second round profile, fitting in the 45-60 range for me. I personally view him a little bit more as a tweener, because he doesn't hide the ball well and his walk rate is just a bit high for a pitchability "high floor" type. His ceiling is that of a #3 or #4 starter but there is a decent shot he ends up in the bullpen, so in my opinion he's not the best value at the #40 pick. He signed for $1.6 million, which is $186,300 under slot.
2-58: RHP Jonathan Bowlan (unranked)
Bowlan is a 6'6" right hander out of the University of Memphis, finishing his junior season 2-9 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 104/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 85 innings. Bowlan is a big guy, carrying 262 pounds on his towering frame, and he uses that size to generate a low 90's fastball that can bump into the mid 90's easily if he reaches back for more. His slider is also a very good secondary offering that helped him rack up all those strikeouts (including 18 in one game against a very strong South Florida lineup), and he has a changeup. His problem is consistency, and he also did not finish up the season well. His ERA sat at 2.75 entering his final two starts, but Tulane roughed him up for five runs and Wichita State tacked on seven, bumping his ERA up almost a run. He is a bit of a project for a college arm, especially one in the second round, but he has very high upside and could be a mid-rotation starter. The more likely landing spot, though, is in the bullpen, where he could sit in the mid 90's and use that sharp slider more effectively. He signed for $697,500, which is $470,800 below slot.
3-94: OF Kyle Isbel (my rank: 58)
Isbel, the Royals' sixth pick, is the first player they took that wasn't a college pitcher, and I'm a big fan of his, as you can tell by his ranking ahead of Bowlan and even Bubic. Isbel was the center fielder at UNLV, slashing .357/.441/.643 with 14 home runs and a 43/34 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games, admittedly in a hitter-friendly environment. His strikeout rate remained in line with his career norms at 15.3%, though his walk rate jumped to 12.1%, showing improved patience to go along with his average strikeout rate. He does a little bit of everything, showing some power to go along with that patience, good contact ability, speed, and good defense in the outfield, and I think the power plays up due to his whippy swing. The only question for him would be how much it plays up, considering he's 5'11" and on the skinnier side, and if he makes enough contact to make up for whatever power doesn't play up. The swing may have to be shortened if contact becomes a problem. Personally, I see a 20 homer bat that can get on base, steal double digit bases, and play good defense. That's a great grab in the third round, and he signed for just $592,300, which is $2,500 below slot.
Others: 4th rounder Eric Cole is out playing for Arkansas in the College World Series, slashing .329/.417/.550 with 14 home runs and a 43/37 strikeout to walk ratio against tough SEC pitching entering the CWS. He's a pretty similar player to Isbel, putting up slightly worse numbers in a better conference, playing the same position, and having a similar height and build. He's a little slower than Isbel and I don't think his swing is quite as projectable, showing less loft and a little more movement, so he's more likely to end up a fourth outfielder. 5th rounder Austin Cox comes from Mercer, where he was 7-4 with a 4.52 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 124/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 87.2 innings. He's a 6'3" lefty that throws his fastball in the low 90's with movement, and his curveball has some hard, late movement on it, helping him generate tons of strikeouts. He has a slider and a changeup as well, but those need work if he wants to remain a starter. His herky-jerky delivery has caused some command problems and made his stuff play down a little at Mercer, so getting him to throw strikes will be the first order of business for the Royals. 6th rounder Zach Haake entered the season with a chance to go in the top fifty picks after a great sophomore season at John A. Logan Community College in Illinois, but he struggled this year after transferring to Kentucky, finishing 2-4 with an 8.47 ERA, a 1.82 WHIP, and a 36/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 34 innings. The 6'4" righty is probably a reliever at the next level, where his stuff is electric, including a mid 90's fastball and a great slider. He often struggles to throw strikes though, which, like the case with Cox, causes his stuff to play down. He might already be a bust but the Royals are willing to wait it out and see if they can turn him around. 8th rounder Jackson Lueck is a well-known college performer, one who has mashed as a three year starter at Florida State. Unfortunately, he's trending in the wrong direction, as his slash lines have gotten worse from his freshman year (.379/.494/.576) to his sophomore year (.318/.405/.507) to his junior year (.245/.364/.476) while his BABIP, or pseudo-luck-factor, has uncoincidentally dropped like a rock (.495 to .377 to .255). He's not the best fielder out in the outfield, but he does have power, patience, and good contact ability, so when his BABIP bounces back, he should be able to hit his way at least into the upper minors. From there, we'll see, but he could end up bringing a helpful power bat to the major league team down the line.
Also notable: Zach Haake (6-182), Jackson Lueck (8-242)
The Royals had a very clear strategy here, taking college pitchers with each of their first five picks and waiting until their twelfth pick to take a high school player at all. Their farm system is bare bones empty right now, so they didn't have time to wait around for some high schoolers to develop; they took high schoolers with their first two picks in 2017 and junior college players with their next two. With five of the first 58 picks, you would hope they came away with a good draft, and while I don't like all of their picks, they definitely did a great job replenishing their farm system.
1-18: RHP Brady Singer (my rank: 2)
Brady Singer, long considered a favorite to go first overall until Casey Mize took over that position midway through the spring, had one of the most unexpected falls of this year's draft. The Florida Gators ace won the Dick Howser Trophy as the top player in college baseball this year, going 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 107/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 101.2 innings in the SEC (heading into the College World Series), the toughest conference in college baseball. He's your classic top of the rotation prospect, bringing stuff, command, projectability, a track record, and makeup to the table. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's with plenty of run, and his slider can be a wipeout pitch at times. His changeup is advanced as well, and he commands it all with confidence. The 6'5" righty has plenty of room to grow and add good weight, and while his delivery can get a bit out of sync, his arm is very loose and he seems like less of an injury risk than most pitchers. He supposedly is a very hard worker, and anybody who has watched him play know he is a very tough competitor. The only question with Singer is his consistency, as he had some tough starts earlier in the season and his stuff has flattened out at times. I think that it's nothing pro coaching can't smooth out, and the Royals have to be very, very happy to get a talent like Singer with the 18th pick. He hasn't signed yet because he is still playing in the College World Series (I'm actually watching him on the mound against Texas Tech as I write this sentence), with slot value sitting at a little over $3.3 million for this pick.
1-33: RHP Jackson Kowar (my rank: 16)
Another pick, another 6'5" Florida Gator right hander who fell just a little farther than expected. Entering the College World Series, Kowar is 9-5 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 105.2 innings. Like Singer, he throws his fastball in the mid 90's, though it's his changeup that that sets him apart rather than his breaking ball, just dropping off before it gets to the plate. That curve is going to need some work, as it looks good at times but lacks the consistency to be a reliable out pitch in pro ball at this point. Like Singer, he's projectable and should be able to add more velocity to his fastball. Obviously, he's still pitching in the CWS, and slot value is just over $2.1 million.
1-34: LHP Daniel Lynch (my rank: 35)
Lynch put up two mediocre seasons at the University of Virginia in 2016 and 2017, not getting his ERA below 5.00 in either season, but something clicked for him on the Cape over the summer and he held it into the spring. On the Cape, he was 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 25/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 30.1 innings, and with UVA this year, he was 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 105/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 88.2 innings. The numbers weren't excellent in Charlottesville, but his stuff looks miles better than it did during his first two seasons. His fastball is now up into the low 90's, and his curve, slider, and advanced changeup can keep hitters off balance. He commands it all very well, and as a 6'4" lefty with a smooth delivery, it's easy to see him adding velocity without sacrificing command. Apparently, the bump in his stuff came when he shed the typical UVA pitching style for his own, as UVA pitchers have a terrible track record. He looks like a back-end starter now, but don't underestimate him. He has already signed for just under $1.7 million, saving the Royals $369,200 for their bonus pool.
CBA-40: LHP Kris Bubic (my rank: 59)
I'm not a huge fan of this pick, but Bubic is a good player. The Stanford lefty finished up his junior season 8-1 with a 2.62 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 101/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings. He's not a power pitcher, throwing his fastball in the low 90's, and he's not projectable, standing at 6'3" with a stocky frame. Instead, he relies on pretty good command and a very good changeup with plenty of run and drop on it. The curveball is mediocre, but he mixes his pitches well enough to get the most out of them. The stuff played up on the Cape Cod League last summer, where he was 4-1 with a 1.65 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 41/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings, mostly due to his pitchability. Bubic is also young for the class, not turning 21 until August, so together it makes for a very nice second round profile, fitting in the 45-60 range for me. I personally view him a little bit more as a tweener, because he doesn't hide the ball well and his walk rate is just a bit high for a pitchability "high floor" type. His ceiling is that of a #3 or #4 starter but there is a decent shot he ends up in the bullpen, so in my opinion he's not the best value at the #40 pick. He signed for $1.6 million, which is $186,300 under slot.
2-58: RHP Jonathan Bowlan (unranked)
Bowlan is a 6'6" right hander out of the University of Memphis, finishing his junior season 2-9 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 104/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 85 innings. Bowlan is a big guy, carrying 262 pounds on his towering frame, and he uses that size to generate a low 90's fastball that can bump into the mid 90's easily if he reaches back for more. His slider is also a very good secondary offering that helped him rack up all those strikeouts (including 18 in one game against a very strong South Florida lineup), and he has a changeup. His problem is consistency, and he also did not finish up the season well. His ERA sat at 2.75 entering his final two starts, but Tulane roughed him up for five runs and Wichita State tacked on seven, bumping his ERA up almost a run. He is a bit of a project for a college arm, especially one in the second round, but he has very high upside and could be a mid-rotation starter. The more likely landing spot, though, is in the bullpen, where he could sit in the mid 90's and use that sharp slider more effectively. He signed for $697,500, which is $470,800 below slot.
3-94: OF Kyle Isbel (my rank: 58)
Isbel, the Royals' sixth pick, is the first player they took that wasn't a college pitcher, and I'm a big fan of his, as you can tell by his ranking ahead of Bowlan and even Bubic. Isbel was the center fielder at UNLV, slashing .357/.441/.643 with 14 home runs and a 43/34 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games, admittedly in a hitter-friendly environment. His strikeout rate remained in line with his career norms at 15.3%, though his walk rate jumped to 12.1%, showing improved patience to go along with his average strikeout rate. He does a little bit of everything, showing some power to go along with that patience, good contact ability, speed, and good defense in the outfield, and I think the power plays up due to his whippy swing. The only question for him would be how much it plays up, considering he's 5'11" and on the skinnier side, and if he makes enough contact to make up for whatever power doesn't play up. The swing may have to be shortened if contact becomes a problem. Personally, I see a 20 homer bat that can get on base, steal double digit bases, and play good defense. That's a great grab in the third round, and he signed for just $592,300, which is $2,500 below slot.
Others: 4th rounder Eric Cole is out playing for Arkansas in the College World Series, slashing .329/.417/.550 with 14 home runs and a 43/37 strikeout to walk ratio against tough SEC pitching entering the CWS. He's a pretty similar player to Isbel, putting up slightly worse numbers in a better conference, playing the same position, and having a similar height and build. He's a little slower than Isbel and I don't think his swing is quite as projectable, showing less loft and a little more movement, so he's more likely to end up a fourth outfielder. 5th rounder Austin Cox comes from Mercer, where he was 7-4 with a 4.52 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 124/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 87.2 innings. He's a 6'3" lefty that throws his fastball in the low 90's with movement, and his curveball has some hard, late movement on it, helping him generate tons of strikeouts. He has a slider and a changeup as well, but those need work if he wants to remain a starter. His herky-jerky delivery has caused some command problems and made his stuff play down a little at Mercer, so getting him to throw strikes will be the first order of business for the Royals. 6th rounder Zach Haake entered the season with a chance to go in the top fifty picks after a great sophomore season at John A. Logan Community College in Illinois, but he struggled this year after transferring to Kentucky, finishing 2-4 with an 8.47 ERA, a 1.82 WHIP, and a 36/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 34 innings. The 6'4" righty is probably a reliever at the next level, where his stuff is electric, including a mid 90's fastball and a great slider. He often struggles to throw strikes though, which, like the case with Cox, causes his stuff to play down. He might already be a bust but the Royals are willing to wait it out and see if they can turn him around. 8th rounder Jackson Lueck is a well-known college performer, one who has mashed as a three year starter at Florida State. Unfortunately, he's trending in the wrong direction, as his slash lines have gotten worse from his freshman year (.379/.494/.576) to his sophomore year (.318/.405/.507) to his junior year (.245/.364/.476) while his BABIP, or pseudo-luck-factor, has uncoincidentally dropped like a rock (.495 to .377 to .255). He's not the best fielder out in the outfield, but he does have power, patience, and good contact ability, so when his BABIP bounces back, he should be able to hit his way at least into the upper minors. From there, we'll see, but he could end up bringing a helpful power bat to the major league team down the line.
Sunday, June 17, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Detroit Tigers
First 5 rounds: Casey Mize (1-1), Parker Meadows (2-44), Kody Clemens (3-79), Kingston Liniak (4-105), Adam Wolf (5-135)
Also notable: Tarik Skubal (9-255), Brock Deatherage (10-285), Avery Tuck (17-495), Jeb Bargfeldt (29-855)
Obviously, the success of this draft hinges primarily on first overall pick Casey Mize, but there is plenty more to look at in this draft. Personally, I find it a bit underwhelming, though they did a good job mixing up their picks and grabbing players from every demographic. They covered all their bases, but I'd come away just a little bit disappointed if I were a Tigers fan, aside from the Mize pick obviously.
1-1: RHP Casey Mize (my rank: 1)
Everyone saw this pick coming from a month away, and it's easy to see why. It's no secret that the Tigers love to take hard throwing right handers in the first round (see Alex Faedo in 2017, Matt Manning in 2016, and Beau Burrows in 2015), and Mize fits that description and more. After an excellent sophomore season at Auburn (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 109/9 K/BB), it was more of the same for him as a junior (10-6, 3.30 ERA, 156/16 K/BB), all against the toughest competition in the SEC. You can tell from the stat line that he knows how to mix his stuff and move it around, striking out opponents in bunches while rarely ever walking his opponents. His stuff starts with a mid 90's fastball with movement, but he is much more than his fastball. His slider is a very good diving pitch, but his best pitch is his splitter, which just seems to get sucked down into a black hole before it hits the plate. He commands it all very well, and really has no holes in his game from a stuff standpoint. The only knocks on him are his arm action and durability, which haven't quite been answered. He had to be shut down as a freshman and as a sophomore, but made it through his whole junior season with no issues, though he did have a few rough starts towards the end of the season. His arm doesn't seem particularly loose, which could cause his durability issues. Aside from that, though, he has top of the rotation potential with a very high floor assuming he stays healthy. He hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting just under $8.1 million.
2-44: OF Parker Meadows (my rank: 49)
For most teams, I would see this as a decent pick, but I actually really like it for the Tigers. Meadows, whose older brother Austin plays for the Pirates, is a high school outfielder from the Atlanta area. He has big power but big swing and miss issues, as he is a lanky, 6'4" left handed hitter with a very long swing and not much of an eye for pitch recognition. I actually think Detroit will be the perfect place for him, and here's why. Obviously, he has to get through the minors first, but once he gets to the majors, Comerica Park really plays to his strengths. It's tough to hit a ball out of there given the deep fences, but he has the power to clear them if he gets ahold of one, and he also has the speed to turn those balls in the gaps into doubles and triples. Additionally, his mediocre pitch recognition could be just a bit mitigated by Comerica's famously effective batters' eye. He's a high ceiling, low floor player, but Detroit is where I think he is most likely to hit that ceiling if he can just get through the minors. He has not signed yet, with pick value sitting just over $1.6 million.
3-79: 2B Kody Clemens (unranked)
Roger Clemens' son had two straight mediocre seasons at Texas, but broke out with arguably the best offensive season in college baseball this year. In 63 games heading into the College World Series, he is slashing .356/.449/.745 with 24 home runs and a 46/40 strikeout to walk ratio, punishing anything thrown his way and leading Texas much farther into the postseason than many thought they would go just a few weeks ago. That said, I'm not sure his chances of producing in pro ball are high enough for the 79th pick. He had this one good season, but he hasn't shown that he can maintain that over multiple seasons, and his swing seems more geared for college pitching than pro pitching. He does a good job leaving his hands back, but they start low and he has a hard time catching up to high fastballs. On defense, he's so-so, with the possibility of sticking at second base but no guarantee. He redshirted a year after hurting his elbow, so he's already 22, but the good news is that he supposedly has a very good work ethic and should be able to maximize his skill set. Because he is still playing in the College World Series, he hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting at $750,800.
5-135: LHP Adam Wolf (unranked)
Wolf is coming off a big year as the Louisville ace, going 8-2 with a 2.63 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 109/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings for the Cardinals. Wolf isn't a power pitcher, but gets his success from pitchability, the ability to command his pitches, and his very good cutter. His ceiling is that of a back-end starter, but he has a good chance to reach it. The 6'6" lefty could also end up a reliever, where he could carve out a long career. He signed at slot for $398,300.
Others: 4th rounder Kingston Liniak, besides having a cool name, is a fairly similar player to second rounder Parker Meadows in that he is a power hitting high school outfielder with a lot of risk and a lot of reward. Unlike Meadows, he's a right handed hitter, and his swing lacks much loft at all right now as he swings down on it. Keeping his hands farther back and getting up under the ball should help his power production. His $900,000 signing bonus was $366,700 above slot. 9th rounder Tarik Skubal generated buzz with a strong start to his sophomore season at Seattle University in 2016 (6-1, 2.11 ERA, 50/17 K/BB), but went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the whole 2017 season. He was back in 2018 and while he wasn't quite as effective (8-2, 4.16 ERA, 106/56 K/BB), he still has the makings of a solid pro prospect. The 6'3" lefty probably moves to the bullpen with his spotty command and high effort, leg-powered delivery, but he could thrive there with his above average stuff. 10th rounder Brock Deatherage (they're really loading up on the cool names, aren't they?) has been a four year starter at NC State, with his senior year being his best. The outfielder slashed .307/.397/.548 with 14 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 76/28 strikeout to walk ratio, showing off about every tool but plate discipline. He has a long swing but generates a lot of whip in it, which should translate to power at the next level, and he has good speed as well. While the 10.4% walk rate is decent, the 28.2% strikeout rate is too high, so he'll have to tighten up the zone in order to reach the majors. He turns 23 in September, so it'll have to be quick, too. 17th rounder Avery Tuck could have been a top five rounds pick out of high school in 2016, but he decided to head to San Diego State instead. Things didn't work out there, and he ended up at New Mexico Junior College for 2018. He's athletic and has a lot of power potential, but swing and miss issues have been present and he's a high risk player, which is okay for the 17th round. 29th rounder Jeb Bargfeldt has been Miami's ace for the past two seasons, finishing 2018 4-5 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 101 innings, striking out 76 and walking 30. He's a pitchability 6' lefty with pretty decent command who could move through the minors as a reliever.
Also notable: Tarik Skubal (9-255), Brock Deatherage (10-285), Avery Tuck (17-495), Jeb Bargfeldt (29-855)
Obviously, the success of this draft hinges primarily on first overall pick Casey Mize, but there is plenty more to look at in this draft. Personally, I find it a bit underwhelming, though they did a good job mixing up their picks and grabbing players from every demographic. They covered all their bases, but I'd come away just a little bit disappointed if I were a Tigers fan, aside from the Mize pick obviously.
1-1: RHP Casey Mize (my rank: 1)
Everyone saw this pick coming from a month away, and it's easy to see why. It's no secret that the Tigers love to take hard throwing right handers in the first round (see Alex Faedo in 2017, Matt Manning in 2016, and Beau Burrows in 2015), and Mize fits that description and more. After an excellent sophomore season at Auburn (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 109/9 K/BB), it was more of the same for him as a junior (10-6, 3.30 ERA, 156/16 K/BB), all against the toughest competition in the SEC. You can tell from the stat line that he knows how to mix his stuff and move it around, striking out opponents in bunches while rarely ever walking his opponents. His stuff starts with a mid 90's fastball with movement, but he is much more than his fastball. His slider is a very good diving pitch, but his best pitch is his splitter, which just seems to get sucked down into a black hole before it hits the plate. He commands it all very well, and really has no holes in his game from a stuff standpoint. The only knocks on him are his arm action and durability, which haven't quite been answered. He had to be shut down as a freshman and as a sophomore, but made it through his whole junior season with no issues, though he did have a few rough starts towards the end of the season. His arm doesn't seem particularly loose, which could cause his durability issues. Aside from that, though, he has top of the rotation potential with a very high floor assuming he stays healthy. He hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting just under $8.1 million.
2-44: OF Parker Meadows (my rank: 49)
For most teams, I would see this as a decent pick, but I actually really like it for the Tigers. Meadows, whose older brother Austin plays for the Pirates, is a high school outfielder from the Atlanta area. He has big power but big swing and miss issues, as he is a lanky, 6'4" left handed hitter with a very long swing and not much of an eye for pitch recognition. I actually think Detroit will be the perfect place for him, and here's why. Obviously, he has to get through the minors first, but once he gets to the majors, Comerica Park really plays to his strengths. It's tough to hit a ball out of there given the deep fences, but he has the power to clear them if he gets ahold of one, and he also has the speed to turn those balls in the gaps into doubles and triples. Additionally, his mediocre pitch recognition could be just a bit mitigated by Comerica's famously effective batters' eye. He's a high ceiling, low floor player, but Detroit is where I think he is most likely to hit that ceiling if he can just get through the minors. He has not signed yet, with pick value sitting just over $1.6 million.
3-79: 2B Kody Clemens (unranked)
Roger Clemens' son had two straight mediocre seasons at Texas, but broke out with arguably the best offensive season in college baseball this year. In 63 games heading into the College World Series, he is slashing .356/.449/.745 with 24 home runs and a 46/40 strikeout to walk ratio, punishing anything thrown his way and leading Texas much farther into the postseason than many thought they would go just a few weeks ago. That said, I'm not sure his chances of producing in pro ball are high enough for the 79th pick. He had this one good season, but he hasn't shown that he can maintain that over multiple seasons, and his swing seems more geared for college pitching than pro pitching. He does a good job leaving his hands back, but they start low and he has a hard time catching up to high fastballs. On defense, he's so-so, with the possibility of sticking at second base but no guarantee. He redshirted a year after hurting his elbow, so he's already 22, but the good news is that he supposedly has a very good work ethic and should be able to maximize his skill set. Because he is still playing in the College World Series, he hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting at $750,800.
5-135: LHP Adam Wolf (unranked)
Wolf is coming off a big year as the Louisville ace, going 8-2 with a 2.63 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 109/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings for the Cardinals. Wolf isn't a power pitcher, but gets his success from pitchability, the ability to command his pitches, and his very good cutter. His ceiling is that of a back-end starter, but he has a good chance to reach it. The 6'6" lefty could also end up a reliever, where he could carve out a long career. He signed at slot for $398,300.
Others: 4th rounder Kingston Liniak, besides having a cool name, is a fairly similar player to second rounder Parker Meadows in that he is a power hitting high school outfielder with a lot of risk and a lot of reward. Unlike Meadows, he's a right handed hitter, and his swing lacks much loft at all right now as he swings down on it. Keeping his hands farther back and getting up under the ball should help his power production. His $900,000 signing bonus was $366,700 above slot. 9th rounder Tarik Skubal generated buzz with a strong start to his sophomore season at Seattle University in 2016 (6-1, 2.11 ERA, 50/17 K/BB), but went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the whole 2017 season. He was back in 2018 and while he wasn't quite as effective (8-2, 4.16 ERA, 106/56 K/BB), he still has the makings of a solid pro prospect. The 6'3" lefty probably moves to the bullpen with his spotty command and high effort, leg-powered delivery, but he could thrive there with his above average stuff. 10th rounder Brock Deatherage (they're really loading up on the cool names, aren't they?) has been a four year starter at NC State, with his senior year being his best. The outfielder slashed .307/.397/.548 with 14 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 76/28 strikeout to walk ratio, showing off about every tool but plate discipline. He has a long swing but generates a lot of whip in it, which should translate to power at the next level, and he has good speed as well. While the 10.4% walk rate is decent, the 28.2% strikeout rate is too high, so he'll have to tighten up the zone in order to reach the majors. He turns 23 in September, so it'll have to be quick, too. 17th rounder Avery Tuck could have been a top five rounds pick out of high school in 2016, but he decided to head to San Diego State instead. Things didn't work out there, and he ended up at New Mexico Junior College for 2018. He's athletic and has a lot of power potential, but swing and miss issues have been present and he's a high risk player, which is okay for the 17th round. 29th rounder Jeb Bargfeldt has been Miami's ace for the past two seasons, finishing 2018 4-5 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 101 innings, striking out 76 and walking 30. He's a pitchability 6' lefty with pretty decent command who could move through the minors as a reliever.
Saturday, June 16, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Cleveland Indians
First 5 rounds: Noah Naylor (1-29), Ethan Hankins (1-35), Lenny Torres (CBA-41), Nick Sandlin (2-67), Richard Palacios (3-103), Adam Scott (4-133), Steven Kwan (5-163)
Also notable: Raynel Delgado (6-193), Antoine Duplantis (19-583), Cody Farhat (23-703)
The Indians like to mix up their drafts and grab some of the less conventional players in the early rounds, then move on to high floor guys as the draft moves forward. While first rounder Noah Naylor isn't an ultra-unique player, the next three picks definitely fit that description, and this strategy usually works well for them. Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, and Shane Bieber are their best recent draft picks, showing that they do well with pitchers (Brady Aiken aside), and they'll look to add to their success this year. Interestingly the players they selected early from college all had great strikeout to walk ratios, with pitchers Nick Sandlin (2nd round) and Adam Scott (4th round) combining for a 281/36 ratio and hitters Richard Palacios (3rd round) and Steven Kwan (5th round) combining for a 31/100 ratio.
1-29: C Noah Naylor (my rank: 29)
I'm not a fan of taking high school catchers early, but I am okay with this Noah Naylor pick in the first round. The younger brother of Padres prospect Josh Naylor, Noah as plenty of power but also shows advanced plate discipline for his age, giving him the opportunity to be an impact hitter at the major league level. While most catchers who have to move off the position usually end up at first base, he has the athleticism to play third base, and that really helps his stock if he doesn't stick as a catcher. He has room to add power, in my opinion, if he can gain more ground with his swing, though his defense could use work. He has a strong arm but needs to improve his receiving; as with all high catchers, there is risk here, but I think the risk is less than most and he has the potential to be an impact player in Cleveland. The Toronto-area native has not signed yet, with the slot-value sitting just over $2.3 million.
1-35: RHP Ethan Hankins (my rank: 22)
The Indians made a somewhat similar pick with Brady Aiken with the 17th selection in 2016, but they'll hope Hankins performs a bit better. He's a very interesting prospect (a theme you'll notice in this Cleveland draft), as he had top five buzz entering the spring but found his stock bouncing all over the place throughout the season. Hankins is a high school pitcher from the Atlanta area that throws his fastball in the mid 90's, touching 98, and the lateral movement on that fastball makes it a plus-plus pitch. On top of that, he can command it well, making it nearly un-hittable. His changeup is also advanced for a high schooler, with his breaking ball being the only question for him, stuff-wise, when he's healthy. He throws a slider and a curve, and while neither has been particularly special, I do like the shape on the curve and I think it could develop into a usable pitch. He's projectable at 6'6" and is younger for the class with his 18th birthday coming less than a month ago in May, and together that adds up to a top ten profile. However, there are some significant downsides in his profile beyond just his breaking ball. He missed a month earlier this season with shoulder issues, which are a very big deal for young pitchers. The effects of the injury caused his stuff to be very inconsistent this year, with his fastball dipping below 90 at times and his changeup occasionally flattening out. Hankins has a wide range of possible outcomes as a pitcher, anywhere from becoming an ace to a high leverage reliever to an A-ball could-have-been that blows out his shoulder and never is the same. Time will tell, but the Indians did have three of the first 41 picks and could afford to take a risk on this one. He has not signed, but will likely require more than the just over $2 million slot in order to be drawn away from Vanderbilt.
CBA-41: RHP Lenny Torres (my rank: 43)
Torres is another guy with a bit of a unique profile, as he is a skinny, 6'2" high school right hander from Beacon, New York, about 50 miles north of the Bronx. He gets great arm speed in his delivery, truly unleashing his pitches rather than forcing them, and he runs his fastball up to the mid 90's consistently. The live armed righty also has a pretty good slider which should get better with pro coaching, and he has a decent changeup as well. Like Hankins, he's a high risk pick due to the fact that he's just so raw as a player, which is understandable coming from New York, but he's very young for the class and won't be 18 until October. He also hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting just over $1.7 million.
2-67: RHP Nick Sandlin (unranked)
Sandlin is a fascinating player who had a fantastic season at Southern Miss in a very interesting way. The 5'11" righty went 10-0 with a 1.06 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 144/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 102 innings, turning in one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory. He is the ultimate deception pitcher, sometimes throwing overhand, sometimes, submarine, and everywhere in between. He doesn't throw particularly hard, sitting anywhere from the upper 80's to the low 90's, but the fastball is so hard to hit due to its life and the fact that you'll have no idea where it's coming from. He throws a slider, curve, and changeup, and all of them can come from any arm slot. He has the stamina to last as a starter, averaging almost seven innings per start and throwing three complete game shutouts this year, but pro hitters might be able to pick up on the deception. He did dominate the Cape Cod League as well, putting up a 1.99 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 39/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, though that was as a reliever. The Indians will run him out as a starter, but his stuff will play up in relief and that may be his ultimate destination. Fun fact, he was the first Indians selection this year to have been born in the 20th century. Feel old yet? He signed for $750,000, which his $189,700 under slot.
3-103: SS Richard Palacios (unranked)
Palacios has played shortstop at Towson University, but he's probably a second baseman at the next level. He has the bat to profile there, putting up a .301/.457/.515 line with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 16/52 strikeout to walk ratio as a junior. That strikeout to walk ratio stands out the most, as he is very selective and gets on base at a great clip while also avoiding swinging through bad pitches. That should help him advance fairly quickly through the minors, with the rest of his offensive game showing average or better. Because speed and plate discipline are his only plus tools, he'll probably end up a utility guy who plays second base and some outfield, but the ability to move quickly makes him an attractive option. He already signed for $475,000, which is $69,200 below slot.
Others: 4th rounder Adam Scott is coming off a breakout senior year at Wofford where he went 8-5 with a 3.14 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an excellent 137/18 strikeout to walk ratio. The polished left hander will try to work his way up as a back-end starter, but his biggest contribution so far has been signing for just $50,000, saving the Indians $356,300 against their bonus pool. 5th rounder Steven Kwan plays center field at Oregon State, and I'm actually watching him in the College World Series as I type this. Kwan is a similar player to his teammate, fourth overall pick Nick Madrigal, showing great bat to ball and speed abilities from a skinny, 5'8" frame. He slashed .357/.465/.463 with a pair of home runs, 14 stolen bases, and an excellent 15/48 strikeout to walk ratio. He'll never hit for power, but the combination of patience, contact, and speed should get him a job as a fourth outfielder. 6th rounder Raynel Delgado is a switch hitting high schooler from Florida who generates power from a big, powerful swing that causes his eye level to change as he swings. He was drafted as a third baseman but his position at the next level remains unclear; the bat is the attractive piece here, and the ceiling is high if Cleveland can streamline his swing. He did sign for $900,000, which is $664,400 over slot. I'm not sure 19th rounder Antoine Duplantis signs here, possibly heading back to LSU for his senior year. He's well known to college fans as a three year starter in Baton Rouge, putting up three very similar seasons that combined for a .324/.381/.420 slash line, six home runs, 51 stolen bases, and an 88/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 203 games. He's a contact hitter with the ability to get on base, steal bases, and play solid defense in center field. 23rd rounder Cody Farhat is another well-known college performer, manning center field for Texas Tech. He was better as a sophomore (.343/.438/.569, 3 HR, 21/16 K/BB) than as a junior (.294/.420/.443, 5 HR, 36/31 K/BB), but the biggest value is in his glove, as he is an excellent defensive center fielder.
Also notable: Raynel Delgado (6-193), Antoine Duplantis (19-583), Cody Farhat (23-703)
The Indians like to mix up their drafts and grab some of the less conventional players in the early rounds, then move on to high floor guys as the draft moves forward. While first rounder Noah Naylor isn't an ultra-unique player, the next three picks definitely fit that description, and this strategy usually works well for them. Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, and Shane Bieber are their best recent draft picks, showing that they do well with pitchers (Brady Aiken aside), and they'll look to add to their success this year. Interestingly the players they selected early from college all had great strikeout to walk ratios, with pitchers Nick Sandlin (2nd round) and Adam Scott (4th round) combining for a 281/36 ratio and hitters Richard Palacios (3rd round) and Steven Kwan (5th round) combining for a 31/100 ratio.
1-29: C Noah Naylor (my rank: 29)
I'm not a fan of taking high school catchers early, but I am okay with this Noah Naylor pick in the first round. The younger brother of Padres prospect Josh Naylor, Noah as plenty of power but also shows advanced plate discipline for his age, giving him the opportunity to be an impact hitter at the major league level. While most catchers who have to move off the position usually end up at first base, he has the athleticism to play third base, and that really helps his stock if he doesn't stick as a catcher. He has room to add power, in my opinion, if he can gain more ground with his swing, though his defense could use work. He has a strong arm but needs to improve his receiving; as with all high catchers, there is risk here, but I think the risk is less than most and he has the potential to be an impact player in Cleveland. The Toronto-area native has not signed yet, with the slot-value sitting just over $2.3 million.
1-35: RHP Ethan Hankins (my rank: 22)
The Indians made a somewhat similar pick with Brady Aiken with the 17th selection in 2016, but they'll hope Hankins performs a bit better. He's a very interesting prospect (a theme you'll notice in this Cleveland draft), as he had top five buzz entering the spring but found his stock bouncing all over the place throughout the season. Hankins is a high school pitcher from the Atlanta area that throws his fastball in the mid 90's, touching 98, and the lateral movement on that fastball makes it a plus-plus pitch. On top of that, he can command it well, making it nearly un-hittable. His changeup is also advanced for a high schooler, with his breaking ball being the only question for him, stuff-wise, when he's healthy. He throws a slider and a curve, and while neither has been particularly special, I do like the shape on the curve and I think it could develop into a usable pitch. He's projectable at 6'6" and is younger for the class with his 18th birthday coming less than a month ago in May, and together that adds up to a top ten profile. However, there are some significant downsides in his profile beyond just his breaking ball. He missed a month earlier this season with shoulder issues, which are a very big deal for young pitchers. The effects of the injury caused his stuff to be very inconsistent this year, with his fastball dipping below 90 at times and his changeup occasionally flattening out. Hankins has a wide range of possible outcomes as a pitcher, anywhere from becoming an ace to a high leverage reliever to an A-ball could-have-been that blows out his shoulder and never is the same. Time will tell, but the Indians did have three of the first 41 picks and could afford to take a risk on this one. He has not signed, but will likely require more than the just over $2 million slot in order to be drawn away from Vanderbilt.
CBA-41: RHP Lenny Torres (my rank: 43)
Torres is another guy with a bit of a unique profile, as he is a skinny, 6'2" high school right hander from Beacon, New York, about 50 miles north of the Bronx. He gets great arm speed in his delivery, truly unleashing his pitches rather than forcing them, and he runs his fastball up to the mid 90's consistently. The live armed righty also has a pretty good slider which should get better with pro coaching, and he has a decent changeup as well. Like Hankins, he's a high risk pick due to the fact that he's just so raw as a player, which is understandable coming from New York, but he's very young for the class and won't be 18 until October. He also hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting just over $1.7 million.
2-67: RHP Nick Sandlin (unranked)
Sandlin is a fascinating player who had a fantastic season at Southern Miss in a very interesting way. The 5'11" righty went 10-0 with a 1.06 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 144/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 102 innings, turning in one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory. He is the ultimate deception pitcher, sometimes throwing overhand, sometimes, submarine, and everywhere in between. He doesn't throw particularly hard, sitting anywhere from the upper 80's to the low 90's, but the fastball is so hard to hit due to its life and the fact that you'll have no idea where it's coming from. He throws a slider, curve, and changeup, and all of them can come from any arm slot. He has the stamina to last as a starter, averaging almost seven innings per start and throwing three complete game shutouts this year, but pro hitters might be able to pick up on the deception. He did dominate the Cape Cod League as well, putting up a 1.99 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 39/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, though that was as a reliever. The Indians will run him out as a starter, but his stuff will play up in relief and that may be his ultimate destination. Fun fact, he was the first Indians selection this year to have been born in the 20th century. Feel old yet? He signed for $750,000, which his $189,700 under slot.
3-103: SS Richard Palacios (unranked)
Palacios has played shortstop at Towson University, but he's probably a second baseman at the next level. He has the bat to profile there, putting up a .301/.457/.515 line with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 16/52 strikeout to walk ratio as a junior. That strikeout to walk ratio stands out the most, as he is very selective and gets on base at a great clip while also avoiding swinging through bad pitches. That should help him advance fairly quickly through the minors, with the rest of his offensive game showing average or better. Because speed and plate discipline are his only plus tools, he'll probably end up a utility guy who plays second base and some outfield, but the ability to move quickly makes him an attractive option. He already signed for $475,000, which is $69,200 below slot.
Others: 4th rounder Adam Scott is coming off a breakout senior year at Wofford where he went 8-5 with a 3.14 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an excellent 137/18 strikeout to walk ratio. The polished left hander will try to work his way up as a back-end starter, but his biggest contribution so far has been signing for just $50,000, saving the Indians $356,300 against their bonus pool. 5th rounder Steven Kwan plays center field at Oregon State, and I'm actually watching him in the College World Series as I type this. Kwan is a similar player to his teammate, fourth overall pick Nick Madrigal, showing great bat to ball and speed abilities from a skinny, 5'8" frame. He slashed .357/.465/.463 with a pair of home runs, 14 stolen bases, and an excellent 15/48 strikeout to walk ratio. He'll never hit for power, but the combination of patience, contact, and speed should get him a job as a fourth outfielder. 6th rounder Raynel Delgado is a switch hitting high schooler from Florida who generates power from a big, powerful swing that causes his eye level to change as he swings. He was drafted as a third baseman but his position at the next level remains unclear; the bat is the attractive piece here, and the ceiling is high if Cleveland can streamline his swing. He did sign for $900,000, which is $664,400 over slot. I'm not sure 19th rounder Antoine Duplantis signs here, possibly heading back to LSU for his senior year. He's well known to college fans as a three year starter in Baton Rouge, putting up three very similar seasons that combined for a .324/.381/.420 slash line, six home runs, 51 stolen bases, and an 88/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 203 games. He's a contact hitter with the ability to get on base, steal bases, and play solid defense in center field. 23rd rounder Cody Farhat is another well-known college performer, manning center field for Texas Tech. He was better as a sophomore (.343/.438/.569, 3 HR, 21/16 K/BB) than as a junior (.294/.420/.443, 5 HR, 36/31 K/BB), but the biggest value is in his glove, as he is an excellent defensive center fielder.
Friday, June 15, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Chicago White Sox
First 5 rounds: Nick Madrigal (1-4), Steele Walker (2-46), Konnor Pilkington (3-81), Lency Delgado (4-108), Jonathan Stiever (5-138)
Also notable: Gunnar Troutwine (9-258), Davis Martin (14-408), Logan Sowers (28-828)
The White Sox focused on safety in this draft, taking college players with their first three picks, five of their first six, and eight of their first ten. Interestingly, they also drafted a lot of teammates, taking three players from the University of Oklahoma and taking two each from Wichita State and Indiana.
1-4: SS Nick Madrigal (my rank: 5)
Skip this part if you've heard it before, but every scouting report about Madrigal will start with his size; he's listed at 5'7", 165 lbs, so he's not only short, but skinny as well. For most guys, that would destroy their draft stock, but the Oregon State second baseman has kept his quite intact with his unreal feel for the barrel. It's the best hit tool not only in this draft, but probably even recent memory, and I'd even put it ahead of 2015 first rounder Kevin Newman, who struck out just 48 times in three years at Arizona. Heading into the College World Series, Madrigal is slashing .397/.463/.567 with three home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 5/14 strikeout to walk ratio, and that's even with a broken wrist sapping some of his power. Most guys his size would have the bat knocked out of their hands by pro pitching, but Madrigal is able to generate plenty of gap power because he finds the sweet spot of the barrel so easily and just gets high quantities of driven balls. Some even find their way over the fence and will continue to in pro ball. He's a very good defender at second base and may actually be able to play shortstop, though we don't know for sure since that spot was manned by defensive wizard and Orioles' CBA pick Cadyn Grenier at OSU. The only downside is the lack of power projection for a top five pick, but with all of his other strengths, that is okay. Jose Altuve and Dustin Pedroia comps are popular because of his size, but I personally see more Daniel Murphy and Keston Hiura in him. Altuve is built like a tank, and Pedroia swings out of his shoes, both unlike the skinny, contact oriented Madrigal. In case you're wondering, five strikeouts in 34 games comes out to a 3.1% rate. He hasn't signed yet due to Oregon State's ongoing College World Series run, but he should sign afterwards and slot value is just over $6.4 million.
2-46: OF Steele Walker (my rank: 37)
I haven't been quite sure what to make of Walker, as he put up a big sophomore year and an even bigger junior year at Oklahoma, but lacks the real tools to project as an impact player at the major league level, but also plays the game hard and is receptive to coaching. It's kind of a weird draft resume that sometimes works and sometimes doesn't. I heard rumors that he could go in the first round, which to me would have been a reach, but he fits well here at pick #46. In 54 games for the Sooners this year, he slashed .352/.441/.606 with 13 home runs and a 48/31 strikeout to walk ratio, doing a little bit of everything at the plate. The bat will have to carry him, as he is really nothing special in the outfield and will likely have to play left at the next level. He lacks a standout tool on offense as well, showing average speed, average power, and good contact ability, though it all plays up because he has a great feel for the game. If you add in the fact that he's old for a college junior and will turn 22 in July, it all adds up to a fourth outfielder projection to me and therefore not a top 50 pick value, but because of the strong makeup, I wouldn't bet against him. He hasn't signed yet, but is likely to and pick value is a little over $1.5 million.
3-81: LHP Konnor Pilkington (my ranking: 66)
The White Sox grabbed Pilkington in the third round, but I get the feeling that it will take close to second round money to sign him. The Mississippi State star was looking like a fringe first round pick coming into the season, but a rough junior year dropped him considerably. The stuff was average, but his very good track record of performance in the SEC (3.08 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 111/47 K/BB as a sophomore in 2017) as well as in the Cape Cod League (1.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33/12 K/BB) had teams very interested. Unfortunately, he was very inconsistent in 2018, heading into the College World Series 2-6 with a 4.56 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 103/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 96.2 innings. His fastball velocity is inconsistent, sometimes sitting around 90 and other times reaching 96, and he should settle into the low 90's in pro ball. His changeup is pretty good, but the slider needs work, and his command isn't good enough to help his stuff play up despite him being a lefty. Interestingly, his command was actually better this year at a 7.3% walk rate versus 10.2% as a sophomore, but his stuff was flatter, allowing him to get hit much more often. I think there is a good chance he ends up as a tweener and never quite makes an impact, but the upside is there considering his past success in tough leagues as well as his youth (he doesn't turn 21 until September, making him more than a year younger than Walker). Like Madrigal, he hasn't signed yet due to his team's ongoing College World Series run.
5-138: RHP Jonathan Stiever (my rank: 94)
Every year, there are always quite a few generic third to fifth round arms floating around college baseball, all of them with average to slightly above average stuff and the ability to command it. This year, those guys were Cal State Fullerton's Colton Eastman, Texas A&M's Mitchell Kilkenny, TCU's Sean Wymer, and Indiana's Jonathan Stiever. Stiever is the ace over in Bloomington, finishing his junior season 5-6 with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 97/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 100 innings. He is a 6'1" righty who throws in the low 90's with sink, and his slider is pretty good as well. His stuff will have to take a step forward in order to crack the major league rotation one day, but he has a good foundation and is a good pick in the fifth round. He was also hit around a bit with a 4.45 ERA on the Cape, but his 25/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 28.1 innings is a good sign. Stiever signed for $386,800, right at slot for the 138th pick.
Others: 4th rounder Lency Delgado was drafted out of a south Florida high school, but he grew up in Havana, Cuba until he was 16. He's a third base prospect with some big power and a strong arm, but he does have work to do. The bat path is a little off, with his hands dropping straight down to the ball before changing direction and exploding up through it; that will need to be smoothed out so his bat can match the plane of the ball. As with most high school picks, he's high risk, but he could be high reward if the White Sox can channel that swing in the right way. 9th rounder Gunnar Troutwine was overshadowed in the Wichita State lineup by first rounder Alec Bohm and second rounder Greyson Jenista, but he is a great player as well. In 55 games, the senior catcher slashed .302/.413/.505 with seven home runs and a 38/34 strikeout to walk ratio. Nothing really stands out as plus for him, but he puts together strong plate discipline, power, and defense to make himself a viable catching prospect. 14th rounder Davis Martin burst onto the scene with a huge freshman season in 2016, going 10-1 with a 2.52 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 61/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 89 innings for Texas Tech, but he hasn't quite matched that since a 2017 shoulder injury. This year, he was 7-5 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP and a 75/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings, showing really well at the beginning of the season but not so well as the season went on. He has a good three pitch mix with a low 90's sinking fastball, a slider, and a changeup, but that stuff has been inconsistent. As a 14th rounder, he'll probably go back to school for his senior year to build up his strength and his draft stock, but pro coaching and distance from his shoulder injury might be just what he needs. 28th rounder Logan Sowers has been a four year star at Indiana, finishing it off with a senior season where he slashed .299/.407/.484 with ten home runs and a 58/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games. He's likely a fourth outfielder at best, as he's more of a college performer than a pro prospect. He's also somewhat of a hometown guy from western Indiana and should be fun to watch in the minors given his success in college.
Also notable: Gunnar Troutwine (9-258), Davis Martin (14-408), Logan Sowers (28-828)
The White Sox focused on safety in this draft, taking college players with their first three picks, five of their first six, and eight of their first ten. Interestingly, they also drafted a lot of teammates, taking three players from the University of Oklahoma and taking two each from Wichita State and Indiana.
1-4: SS Nick Madrigal (my rank: 5)
Skip this part if you've heard it before, but every scouting report about Madrigal will start with his size; he's listed at 5'7", 165 lbs, so he's not only short, but skinny as well. For most guys, that would destroy their draft stock, but the Oregon State second baseman has kept his quite intact with his unreal feel for the barrel. It's the best hit tool not only in this draft, but probably even recent memory, and I'd even put it ahead of 2015 first rounder Kevin Newman, who struck out just 48 times in three years at Arizona. Heading into the College World Series, Madrigal is slashing .397/.463/.567 with three home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 5/14 strikeout to walk ratio, and that's even with a broken wrist sapping some of his power. Most guys his size would have the bat knocked out of their hands by pro pitching, but Madrigal is able to generate plenty of gap power because he finds the sweet spot of the barrel so easily and just gets high quantities of driven balls. Some even find their way over the fence and will continue to in pro ball. He's a very good defender at second base and may actually be able to play shortstop, though we don't know for sure since that spot was manned by defensive wizard and Orioles' CBA pick Cadyn Grenier at OSU. The only downside is the lack of power projection for a top five pick, but with all of his other strengths, that is okay. Jose Altuve and Dustin Pedroia comps are popular because of his size, but I personally see more Daniel Murphy and Keston Hiura in him. Altuve is built like a tank, and Pedroia swings out of his shoes, both unlike the skinny, contact oriented Madrigal. In case you're wondering, five strikeouts in 34 games comes out to a 3.1% rate. He hasn't signed yet due to Oregon State's ongoing College World Series run, but he should sign afterwards and slot value is just over $6.4 million.
2-46: OF Steele Walker (my rank: 37)
I haven't been quite sure what to make of Walker, as he put up a big sophomore year and an even bigger junior year at Oklahoma, but lacks the real tools to project as an impact player at the major league level, but also plays the game hard and is receptive to coaching. It's kind of a weird draft resume that sometimes works and sometimes doesn't. I heard rumors that he could go in the first round, which to me would have been a reach, but he fits well here at pick #46. In 54 games for the Sooners this year, he slashed .352/.441/.606 with 13 home runs and a 48/31 strikeout to walk ratio, doing a little bit of everything at the plate. The bat will have to carry him, as he is really nothing special in the outfield and will likely have to play left at the next level. He lacks a standout tool on offense as well, showing average speed, average power, and good contact ability, though it all plays up because he has a great feel for the game. If you add in the fact that he's old for a college junior and will turn 22 in July, it all adds up to a fourth outfielder projection to me and therefore not a top 50 pick value, but because of the strong makeup, I wouldn't bet against him. He hasn't signed yet, but is likely to and pick value is a little over $1.5 million.
3-81: LHP Konnor Pilkington (my ranking: 66)
The White Sox grabbed Pilkington in the third round, but I get the feeling that it will take close to second round money to sign him. The Mississippi State star was looking like a fringe first round pick coming into the season, but a rough junior year dropped him considerably. The stuff was average, but his very good track record of performance in the SEC (3.08 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 111/47 K/BB as a sophomore in 2017) as well as in the Cape Cod League (1.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33/12 K/BB) had teams very interested. Unfortunately, he was very inconsistent in 2018, heading into the College World Series 2-6 with a 4.56 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 103/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 96.2 innings. His fastball velocity is inconsistent, sometimes sitting around 90 and other times reaching 96, and he should settle into the low 90's in pro ball. His changeup is pretty good, but the slider needs work, and his command isn't good enough to help his stuff play up despite him being a lefty. Interestingly, his command was actually better this year at a 7.3% walk rate versus 10.2% as a sophomore, but his stuff was flatter, allowing him to get hit much more often. I think there is a good chance he ends up as a tweener and never quite makes an impact, but the upside is there considering his past success in tough leagues as well as his youth (he doesn't turn 21 until September, making him more than a year younger than Walker). Like Madrigal, he hasn't signed yet due to his team's ongoing College World Series run.
5-138: RHP Jonathan Stiever (my rank: 94)
Every year, there are always quite a few generic third to fifth round arms floating around college baseball, all of them with average to slightly above average stuff and the ability to command it. This year, those guys were Cal State Fullerton's Colton Eastman, Texas A&M's Mitchell Kilkenny, TCU's Sean Wymer, and Indiana's Jonathan Stiever. Stiever is the ace over in Bloomington, finishing his junior season 5-6 with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 97/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 100 innings. He is a 6'1" righty who throws in the low 90's with sink, and his slider is pretty good as well. His stuff will have to take a step forward in order to crack the major league rotation one day, but he has a good foundation and is a good pick in the fifth round. He was also hit around a bit with a 4.45 ERA on the Cape, but his 25/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 28.1 innings is a good sign. Stiever signed for $386,800, right at slot for the 138th pick.
Others: 4th rounder Lency Delgado was drafted out of a south Florida high school, but he grew up in Havana, Cuba until he was 16. He's a third base prospect with some big power and a strong arm, but he does have work to do. The bat path is a little off, with his hands dropping straight down to the ball before changing direction and exploding up through it; that will need to be smoothed out so his bat can match the plane of the ball. As with most high school picks, he's high risk, but he could be high reward if the White Sox can channel that swing in the right way. 9th rounder Gunnar Troutwine was overshadowed in the Wichita State lineup by first rounder Alec Bohm and second rounder Greyson Jenista, but he is a great player as well. In 55 games, the senior catcher slashed .302/.413/.505 with seven home runs and a 38/34 strikeout to walk ratio. Nothing really stands out as plus for him, but he puts together strong plate discipline, power, and defense to make himself a viable catching prospect. 14th rounder Davis Martin burst onto the scene with a huge freshman season in 2016, going 10-1 with a 2.52 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 61/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 89 innings for Texas Tech, but he hasn't quite matched that since a 2017 shoulder injury. This year, he was 7-5 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP and a 75/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings, showing really well at the beginning of the season but not so well as the season went on. He has a good three pitch mix with a low 90's sinking fastball, a slider, and a changeup, but that stuff has been inconsistent. As a 14th rounder, he'll probably go back to school for his senior year to build up his strength and his draft stock, but pro coaching and distance from his shoulder injury might be just what he needs. 28th rounder Logan Sowers has been a four year star at Indiana, finishing it off with a senior season where he slashed .299/.407/.484 with ten home runs and a 58/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games. He's likely a fourth outfielder at best, as he's more of a college performer than a pro prospect. He's also somewhat of a hometown guy from western Indiana and should be fun to watch in the minors given his success in college.
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays
First 5 rounds: Jordan Groshans (1-12), Griffin Conine (2-52), Adam Kloffenstein (3-88), Sean Wymer (4-116), Christopher Bec (5-146)
Also notable: Joey Murray (8-236), Cal Stevenson (10-296), John Aiello (14-416), Andy McGuire (28-836)
Instead of focusing on upside or floor, the Blue Jays split the difference and grabbed a bunch of players early on who offered a good mix of both. I like their draft overall, and I think Jays fans should be happy with what they got here. Getting two guys from the same high school in the first three rounds is a nice bonus as well. However, third rounder Adam Kloffenstein's huge bonus (almost $1.8 million above slot) is going to make the bonus pool tight everywhere else and definitely affected their drafting strategy.
1-12: SS Jordan Groshans (my rank: 32)
This is a bit of a reach with the 12th overall pick, but since they saved $800,900 on his signing bonus, it's more excusable. For a high schooler, he offers a great mix of floor and upside, as his bat is already advanced and he has the ability to stick in the dirt. Though the bat is advanced for his age, the high schooler from outside of Houston will need some mechanical adjustments to add lift to his swing and thus power to his profile. Because he hit well against good pitching on the showcase circuit and already shows the ability to drive the ball to all fields, that shouldn't be too much of an issue. On defense, he probably won't stick at shortstop, but Toronto will give him every chance to try. He probably ends up at third base and hits 20 home runs per year with on-base percentages up around .350. Slot value was just over $4.2 million, but he signed for $3.4 million to save his team some money, which they put to his teammate in the third round.
2-52: OF Griffin Conine (my rank: 36)
Already having the sons of Vladimir Guerrero, Craig Biggio, and Dante Bichette playing together on their AA team in New Hampshire and getting fantastic results out of them, the Jays decided to add another ballplayer's kid in Griffin Conine, son of Jeff Conine. The younger Conine came into the spring with sky high expectations following a fantastic summer in the Cape Cod League (.329/.406/.537, 9 HR, 43/20 K/BB), but those high expectations may have gotten to him, as he changed his approach and struggled mightily during the first half of his junior season at Duke. His swing got long and he swung at too many pitches outside the zone, exacerbating his already present strikeout issues. However, he turned it around in the middle of the season, and his final line turned out to be pretty good: .286/.410/.608, 18 HR, 74/43 K/BB. The left handed power obviously stands out, as does the high walk rate at 15.5%. However, the strikeouts also stand out, as 26.6% is exceptionally high and it will cause issues in his transition to pro ball. The swing will have to be shortened and his approach will have to improve, but ultimately, the power, as well as the potential to be an average right fielder, stand out enough that I would definitely give him a shot. He's also young for a college junior, not turning 21 until July, so that's another bonus. Slot value is $1.35 million and he has not signed yet. Depending on how the money falls, the Jays may only be able to offer him an under-slot deal.
3-88: RHP Adam Kloffenstein (my rank: 38)
Groshans' high school teammate in Magnolia, Texas, Kloffenstein is a fantastic talent for the third round, though they did pay a first round price to get him. The 6'5" righty is durably built and should have no problems sticking in the rotation, though with that durable build comes less projection than the typical 6'5" high school arm. That's okay, because where he is at now is already really good. He can vary his fastball from a low 90's sinker to a mid 90's straight burner, and he can also change the shape of his breaking ball at will. It will probably develop into two pitches, a curve and a slider. The changeup is there as well, and it looks good at times. Combine that with good command and a late birthday (he turns 18 in August), and you have a safer bet than most high schoolers to stick in the rotation. As you can tell by my ranking, I think he's a borderline first round prospect, so getting him here is exciting. However, his $2.45 million signing bonus was nearly $1.8 million above slot, only $800,900 of which was saved on Groshans, so the Jays will have to save money elsewhere. They did already get $135,200 back on tenth rounder Cal Stevenson's under-slot deal, but there is more work to be done.
4-116: RHP Sean Wymer (my rank: 91)
I wasn't a big fan of Wymer to begin with this season, and when his shift from the TCU bullpen to the rotation produced underwhelming results, I basically wrote him off as a top 100 prospect. However, I'm intrigued just enough by his profile that I pushed him back into the top 100, and here is why. Wymer finished the season 6-3 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 15 games (10 starts), striking out 69 and walking 14 in 74 innings for the Horned Frogs. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and adds an overall average mix of a curveball, slider, and changeup. At 6'1", he lacks projectability, and I originally thought he belonged back in the bullpen. I do have a little bit of hope that he can start, as he has a durable build and good command, and I also get the feeling that he might just be getting used to starting, and with a full season under his belt and some pro coaching, he could take off in the near future and become a back-end arm in the rotation. If not, he was successful as a reliever for TCU as a sophomore (2.10 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 66/10 K/BB) and he can transition back there as a long reliever. I think he's good value in the fourth round. He has not signed yet, with his bonus pool being worth $478,600.
28-836: 1B Andy McGuire (unranked)
The Texas two way star has had a bit of a wild ride. I had the opportunity to practice alongside Andy in high school, as I was a sophomore on the JV team when he was widely being considered a top 100 prospect as an infielder for the 2013 draft. He was intent on attending Texas and slipped to the Rockies in the 36th round, didn't sign, then took the bumpiest of roads from there. In 22 games as a freshman in 2014, he slashed an abysmal .113/.210/.127, then switched to the mound full time as a sophomore in 2015, putting up a 5.25 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over 13 appearances. In 2016, he transferred to USC Aiken in South Carolina, but transferred straight back to Texas and sat out the season due to NCAA transfer rules. After not making the Longhorns team in 2017, he got a shot as a fifth year senior in 2018 and made the most of it. In 40 games as a hitter, he slashed .263/.383/.500 with a pair of home runs and an 8/7 strikeout to walk ratio, and in 27 appearances as a reliever, he put up a 2.01 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 31 innings. The Blue Jays took him in the 28th round as an infielder, where he'll look to continue to resurrect his career. McGuire showed great plate discipline with that 8/7 strikeout to walk ratio (17%/14.9%), though in an admittedly small sample size, which is especially impressive considering his four year layoff between collegiate at bats. The talent is definitely there, and if you go back and look at MLB.com's 2013 top draft prospects list, you'll find him at number 62. He is a fantastic guy who has worked incredibly hard to be where he is today, and I wish him the best of luck with his pro career.
Others: 8th rounder Joey Murray is the latest in a long line of Kent State aces, finishing his junior season 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 141/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.2 innings. While the strikeout rate is high, he doesn't throw rockets, instead sitting in the upper 80's with his fastball. He gets his swings in misses on deception and movement, as his delivery is quirky and his curve and slider both have good movement. With his mediocre command, he likely ends up a reliever, but the deception as well as the velocity boost he'll get should help him climb the ladder. 10th rounder Cal Stevenson is a college performer from the University of Arizona, finishing up his senior season with a .293/.416/.397 slash line, a home run, and a 16/35 strikeout to walk ratio as the Wildcats' leadoff man. Despite being a senior, he's actually the age of a college junior, turning 22 in September. He'll never hit for any power, limiting his ceiling to that of a fourth outfielder, but he'll provide good defense and on-base abilities. His 7.1% strikeout rate was nice and low, and when you combine that with a very good 15.6% walk rate, you get a guy who should be able to handle pro pitching with ease. 14th rounder John Aiello might be a signability risk after coming off a down year at Wake Forest, but that's okay because it is the 14th round. He was a well regarded prospect out of high school in 2015, but chose to head to campus and had a huge sophomore season in 2017 by slashing .328/.417/.643 with 20 home runs and a 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio. However, he regressed to .231/.346/.389 with eight home runs while keeping that ugly 79/25 strikeout to walk ratio, so he's definitely a risk. If he improves his plate discipline and shows that 2018 was a fluke, this is a great pick in the middle of the draft.
Also notable: Joey Murray (8-236), Cal Stevenson (10-296), John Aiello (14-416), Andy McGuire (28-836)
Instead of focusing on upside or floor, the Blue Jays split the difference and grabbed a bunch of players early on who offered a good mix of both. I like their draft overall, and I think Jays fans should be happy with what they got here. Getting two guys from the same high school in the first three rounds is a nice bonus as well. However, third rounder Adam Kloffenstein's huge bonus (almost $1.8 million above slot) is going to make the bonus pool tight everywhere else and definitely affected their drafting strategy.
1-12: SS Jordan Groshans (my rank: 32)
This is a bit of a reach with the 12th overall pick, but since they saved $800,900 on his signing bonus, it's more excusable. For a high schooler, he offers a great mix of floor and upside, as his bat is already advanced and he has the ability to stick in the dirt. Though the bat is advanced for his age, the high schooler from outside of Houston will need some mechanical adjustments to add lift to his swing and thus power to his profile. Because he hit well against good pitching on the showcase circuit and already shows the ability to drive the ball to all fields, that shouldn't be too much of an issue. On defense, he probably won't stick at shortstop, but Toronto will give him every chance to try. He probably ends up at third base and hits 20 home runs per year with on-base percentages up around .350. Slot value was just over $4.2 million, but he signed for $3.4 million to save his team some money, which they put to his teammate in the third round.
2-52: OF Griffin Conine (my rank: 36)
Already having the sons of Vladimir Guerrero, Craig Biggio, and Dante Bichette playing together on their AA team in New Hampshire and getting fantastic results out of them, the Jays decided to add another ballplayer's kid in Griffin Conine, son of Jeff Conine. The younger Conine came into the spring with sky high expectations following a fantastic summer in the Cape Cod League (.329/.406/.537, 9 HR, 43/20 K/BB), but those high expectations may have gotten to him, as he changed his approach and struggled mightily during the first half of his junior season at Duke. His swing got long and he swung at too many pitches outside the zone, exacerbating his already present strikeout issues. However, he turned it around in the middle of the season, and his final line turned out to be pretty good: .286/.410/.608, 18 HR, 74/43 K/BB. The left handed power obviously stands out, as does the high walk rate at 15.5%. However, the strikeouts also stand out, as 26.6% is exceptionally high and it will cause issues in his transition to pro ball. The swing will have to be shortened and his approach will have to improve, but ultimately, the power, as well as the potential to be an average right fielder, stand out enough that I would definitely give him a shot. He's also young for a college junior, not turning 21 until July, so that's another bonus. Slot value is $1.35 million and he has not signed yet. Depending on how the money falls, the Jays may only be able to offer him an under-slot deal.
3-88: RHP Adam Kloffenstein (my rank: 38)
Groshans' high school teammate in Magnolia, Texas, Kloffenstein is a fantastic talent for the third round, though they did pay a first round price to get him. The 6'5" righty is durably built and should have no problems sticking in the rotation, though with that durable build comes less projection than the typical 6'5" high school arm. That's okay, because where he is at now is already really good. He can vary his fastball from a low 90's sinker to a mid 90's straight burner, and he can also change the shape of his breaking ball at will. It will probably develop into two pitches, a curve and a slider. The changeup is there as well, and it looks good at times. Combine that with good command and a late birthday (he turns 18 in August), and you have a safer bet than most high schoolers to stick in the rotation. As you can tell by my ranking, I think he's a borderline first round prospect, so getting him here is exciting. However, his $2.45 million signing bonus was nearly $1.8 million above slot, only $800,900 of which was saved on Groshans, so the Jays will have to save money elsewhere. They did already get $135,200 back on tenth rounder Cal Stevenson's under-slot deal, but there is more work to be done.
4-116: RHP Sean Wymer (my rank: 91)
I wasn't a big fan of Wymer to begin with this season, and when his shift from the TCU bullpen to the rotation produced underwhelming results, I basically wrote him off as a top 100 prospect. However, I'm intrigued just enough by his profile that I pushed him back into the top 100, and here is why. Wymer finished the season 6-3 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 15 games (10 starts), striking out 69 and walking 14 in 74 innings for the Horned Frogs. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and adds an overall average mix of a curveball, slider, and changeup. At 6'1", he lacks projectability, and I originally thought he belonged back in the bullpen. I do have a little bit of hope that he can start, as he has a durable build and good command, and I also get the feeling that he might just be getting used to starting, and with a full season under his belt and some pro coaching, he could take off in the near future and become a back-end arm in the rotation. If not, he was successful as a reliever for TCU as a sophomore (2.10 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 66/10 K/BB) and he can transition back there as a long reliever. I think he's good value in the fourth round. He has not signed yet, with his bonus pool being worth $478,600.
28-836: 1B Andy McGuire (unranked)
The Texas two way star has had a bit of a wild ride. I had the opportunity to practice alongside Andy in high school, as I was a sophomore on the JV team when he was widely being considered a top 100 prospect as an infielder for the 2013 draft. He was intent on attending Texas and slipped to the Rockies in the 36th round, didn't sign, then took the bumpiest of roads from there. In 22 games as a freshman in 2014, he slashed an abysmal .113/.210/.127, then switched to the mound full time as a sophomore in 2015, putting up a 5.25 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over 13 appearances. In 2016, he transferred to USC Aiken in South Carolina, but transferred straight back to Texas and sat out the season due to NCAA transfer rules. After not making the Longhorns team in 2017, he got a shot as a fifth year senior in 2018 and made the most of it. In 40 games as a hitter, he slashed .263/.383/.500 with a pair of home runs and an 8/7 strikeout to walk ratio, and in 27 appearances as a reliever, he put up a 2.01 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 31 innings. The Blue Jays took him in the 28th round as an infielder, where he'll look to continue to resurrect his career. McGuire showed great plate discipline with that 8/7 strikeout to walk ratio (17%/14.9%), though in an admittedly small sample size, which is especially impressive considering his four year layoff between collegiate at bats. The talent is definitely there, and if you go back and look at MLB.com's 2013 top draft prospects list, you'll find him at number 62. He is a fantastic guy who has worked incredibly hard to be where he is today, and I wish him the best of luck with his pro career.
Others: 8th rounder Joey Murray is the latest in a long line of Kent State aces, finishing his junior season 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 141/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.2 innings. While the strikeout rate is high, he doesn't throw rockets, instead sitting in the upper 80's with his fastball. He gets his swings in misses on deception and movement, as his delivery is quirky and his curve and slider both have good movement. With his mediocre command, he likely ends up a reliever, but the deception as well as the velocity boost he'll get should help him climb the ladder. 10th rounder Cal Stevenson is a college performer from the University of Arizona, finishing up his senior season with a .293/.416/.397 slash line, a home run, and a 16/35 strikeout to walk ratio as the Wildcats' leadoff man. Despite being a senior, he's actually the age of a college junior, turning 22 in September. He'll never hit for any power, limiting his ceiling to that of a fourth outfielder, but he'll provide good defense and on-base abilities. His 7.1% strikeout rate was nice and low, and when you combine that with a very good 15.6% walk rate, you get a guy who should be able to handle pro pitching with ease. 14th rounder John Aiello might be a signability risk after coming off a down year at Wake Forest, but that's okay because it is the 14th round. He was a well regarded prospect out of high school in 2015, but chose to head to campus and had a huge sophomore season in 2017 by slashing .328/.417/.643 with 20 home runs and a 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio. However, he regressed to .231/.346/.389 with eight home runs while keeping that ugly 79/25 strikeout to walk ratio, so he's definitely a risk. If he improves his plate discipline and shows that 2018 was a fluke, this is a great pick in the middle of the draft.
Tuesday, June 12, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Tampa Bay Rays
First 5 rounds: Matthew Liberatore (1-16), Shane McClanahan (1-31), Nick Schnell (1-32), Tyler Frank (2-56), Tanner Dodson (CBB-71), Ford Proctor (3-92), Grant Witherspoon (4-120), Taj Bradley (5-150)
Also notable: Jacson McGowan (11-330), Trey Cumbie (13-390), Nick Sprengel (15-450), Garrett Wade (38-1140)
The Rays had tons of early picks, and they absolutely nailed them. Their first two picks have very good chances to develop into stars, and their third pick could as well. After the upside plays early, they grabbed some high floor guys in the next few rounds, showing great balance and making sure they covered all their bases. This was an excellent draft class, and perhaps no team should be more excited about its draft haul than the Rays.
1-16: LHP Matthew Liberatore (my rank: 3)
This is the best pick in the draft in my opinion, not only because the Rays got a top five talent in the middle of the round, but because they also signed him for $103,500 under slot at $3.5 million. Liberatore was my favorite left hander and my favorite high schooler in the draft, and anyone who has followed my draft content knows I think he is a spitting image of Clayton Kershaw. Liberatore throws in the low 90's but has touched 97, has a big breaking curveball, a new, hard biting slider, and a very good changeup, all of which he commands well. The combination of stuff and command already give him a high floor, but the projectability at 6'5" add to the upside of a true number one starter. His curve could use to add power and he could use to add a little more consistency to his game, but those are small qualms to have with a guy like Liberatore. When he fell to the 16th pick, I thought he fell due to signability, but the slightly under-slot signing bonus truly shows the Rays got away with a genuine steal. As for the Kershaw comparison, both are tall, skinny lefties with leg heavy deliveries, low 90's fastballs, big breaking curveballs, shorter sliders, good changeups, and good command. I'm not predicting Liberatore to be one of the greatest that ever lived like Kershaw, but the similarities are there.
1-31: LHP Shane McClanahan (my rank: 24)
With the 31st selection, the Rays added another high upside lefty arm, one who was thought of as a potential top ten pick until the last week or two before the draft. McClanahan had an up and down season with the University of South Florida, finishing 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA but also striking out 120 and walking 48 in 76 innings. In this case, the stats kind of say it all. He throws exceptionally hard, touching 100 MPH with his fastball, and his changeup is very good as well. The problem comes in with command, as he misses spots and walks his opponents regularly, and major league hitters can hit 100 MPH fastballs if it's a hitter's count and they're sitting dead red. His changeup has fluctuated between great and just good, and his slider is really nothing special. If pro coaching is all he needs to put it all together, he has some of the best upside in the college class, and this could be a steal with the 31st selection. As a bonus, he grew up on Florida's Gulf Coast. Slot value here is just over $2.2 million but he has not signed yet.
1-32: OF Nick Schnell (my rank: 45)
The first position player the Rays took is a high school outfielder from Indianapolis. Schnell gained steam as draft season moved along, as he demolished low quality competition in Indiana with contact, power, speed, and defense. He has the ability to stick in center field, and if his bat comes along right, he could be a five tool player for the Rays. The bat does have a bit of a long way to go, as its whippy action screams even more future power, but his swing can get out of whack and it could be exposed in pro ball. He's as high risk as it comes, but as the Rays' third pick in the top 32, they can afford those risks, and Schnell's upside is definitely something to dream on. He is expected to sign, though terms have not been released and slot value is just under $2.2 million.
2-56: SS Tyler Frank (my rank: 73)
The Rays went for upside with their first three picks, so they started to switch over to safe bets in the second round, with Tyler Frank being the first in that line. Frank, another Florida native, put up back to back excellent seasons for Florida Atlantic University, culminating with a .300/.436/.547 slash line, 13 home runs, and a 36/52 strikeout to walk ratio this year. There's a lot to like in his profile, as he shows power, patience, and defensive versatility, as well as a track record of hitting in a mid-major conference. He's a lot more floor than upside, with his advanced plate discipline being his likely carrying tool, as his swing and body type don't have much projection at this point; they are what they are. That's okay when you walk in 16.9% of your plate appearances and strike out in just 11.7% while hitting 13 home runs. On defense, he won't wow you, but he can play all over the field, giving him the upside of a valuable utility player in the Marwin Gonzalez mold. He signed for $997,500, which is about $230,000 below slot.
CBB-71: RHP Tanner Dodson (my rank: 97)
With their second straight high floor pick, the Rays grabbed University of California righty Tanner Dodson, an ultra-talented player who actually led the Cape Cod League in batting average this year as part of a .365/.461/.500 slash line there. His future is on the mound, though, as a high-leverage reliever. I tend to drop relievers in my rankings because it seems you can always find unremarkable starting pitchers late in the draft, convert them to the bullpen, and have them step forward from there, but there is something to be said about a guy like Dodson who is a safe bet to reach a major league bullpen soon. In 19 relief appearances for the Golden Bears this season, the 6'1" righty put up a 2.48 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 35/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, averaging just over two innings per outing. He throws in the mid 90's with a very good slider, and with his command, that stuff should already be close to major league ready. He dropped in my rankings because you'd like to see just a few more strikeouts from a college reliever, but the low walk rate is nice to see. He's supposedly close to signing, though terms have not been released. Slot value is $850,700.
4-120: Grant Witherspoon (my rank: 107)
Witherspoon, an outfielder out of Tulane, is a fairly similar player to Frank, just with slightly less plate discipline and without the ability to play the outfield, hence the selection 64 picks later and the ranking 34 places lower on my list. The left handed hitter has improved every year in New Orleans, finishing up with a strong .330/.436/.587 line, 12 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 36/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games this year. He's fast, plays good defense in the outfield, can take a walk, and has some power in him, though I'm just a little concerned that the loop in his swing could lead to contact issue down the road. Think of him as a fourth outfield prospect with the potential to be a bit more if the Rays can channel his swing and his power. He signed at-slot for $460,200.
Others: 3rd rounder Ford Proctor is coming off a big junior season at Rice (.346/.431/.515, 8 HR, 46/37 K/BB), and he brings a scrappy game and defensive versatility to the Rays system. He likely won't be a starter, though he could surprise in a Josh Harrison or Scooter Gennett kind of way, as he does a lot of little things right as a player. He has a very quick swing from the left side that should play up at the next level despite a 16.4% strikeout rate at Rice this year, has already signed, and could move quickly. 5th rounder Taj Bradley, who like Ford Proctor has a great baseball name (they're making up for Nick Schnell and Tyler Frank), may have been the youngest player in the entire draft class, as he just turned 17 in March and would be on the younger side even for a high school junior. The 6'2" right handed pitcher understandably raw, but he's already into the low 90's with a sinking fastball and a pretty good curveball. It's hard to know exactly what to make of him, but the upside is great for the fifth round even if the risk is considerable. They have already signed him away from a South Carolina commitment. 11th rounder Jacson McGowan is more of a college performer than a projectable player, coming off a big junior season at Purdue where he slashed .304/.442/.544 with 13 home runs and a 51/49 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games. With his mediocre defense at first base, his value is strictly tied to his bat, so he'll have to work on his plate discipline (19.3% strikeout rate this year) to tap into his considerable raw power. 13th rounder Trey Cumbie regressed after a huge sophomore season at the University of Houston (first team All-American, 2.04 ERA, 82/15 K/BB) to put up a more pedestrian junior year (3.47 ERA, 110/26 K/BB), but the 6'2" lefty could still work his way through the minors as a back-end starter. 15th rounder Nick Sprengel had designs of going much earlier in the draft after a big sophomore season at the University of San Diego (3.29 ERA, 86/33 K/BB), but he was downright awful as a junior (11.33 ERA, 51/30 K/BB) and couldn't command his pitches whatsoever. He has great stuff, with a low 90's fastball and a solid slider/changeup combination, but his complete inability to know where his pitches were going this year makes him a complete wild card. 38th rounder Garrett Wade definitely won't sign here, but I really like the 6'2" high school lefty and think he could be a high pick in the 2021 draft out of Auburn. The 18 year old throws his fastball around 90 but has deception and life on it, and his slider and curve both look like good breaking balls. With his command, the only real question is whether his fastball velocity can step forward and how durable he can be, but he's definitely one to watch in college ball.
Also notable: Jacson McGowan (11-330), Trey Cumbie (13-390), Nick Sprengel (15-450), Garrett Wade (38-1140)
The Rays had tons of early picks, and they absolutely nailed them. Their first two picks have very good chances to develop into stars, and their third pick could as well. After the upside plays early, they grabbed some high floor guys in the next few rounds, showing great balance and making sure they covered all their bases. This was an excellent draft class, and perhaps no team should be more excited about its draft haul than the Rays.
1-16: LHP Matthew Liberatore (my rank: 3)
This is the best pick in the draft in my opinion, not only because the Rays got a top five talent in the middle of the round, but because they also signed him for $103,500 under slot at $3.5 million. Liberatore was my favorite left hander and my favorite high schooler in the draft, and anyone who has followed my draft content knows I think he is a spitting image of Clayton Kershaw. Liberatore throws in the low 90's but has touched 97, has a big breaking curveball, a new, hard biting slider, and a very good changeup, all of which he commands well. The combination of stuff and command already give him a high floor, but the projectability at 6'5" add to the upside of a true number one starter. His curve could use to add power and he could use to add a little more consistency to his game, but those are small qualms to have with a guy like Liberatore. When he fell to the 16th pick, I thought he fell due to signability, but the slightly under-slot signing bonus truly shows the Rays got away with a genuine steal. As for the Kershaw comparison, both are tall, skinny lefties with leg heavy deliveries, low 90's fastballs, big breaking curveballs, shorter sliders, good changeups, and good command. I'm not predicting Liberatore to be one of the greatest that ever lived like Kershaw, but the similarities are there.
1-31: LHP Shane McClanahan (my rank: 24)
With the 31st selection, the Rays added another high upside lefty arm, one who was thought of as a potential top ten pick until the last week or two before the draft. McClanahan had an up and down season with the University of South Florida, finishing 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA but also striking out 120 and walking 48 in 76 innings. In this case, the stats kind of say it all. He throws exceptionally hard, touching 100 MPH with his fastball, and his changeup is very good as well. The problem comes in with command, as he misses spots and walks his opponents regularly, and major league hitters can hit 100 MPH fastballs if it's a hitter's count and they're sitting dead red. His changeup has fluctuated between great and just good, and his slider is really nothing special. If pro coaching is all he needs to put it all together, he has some of the best upside in the college class, and this could be a steal with the 31st selection. As a bonus, he grew up on Florida's Gulf Coast. Slot value here is just over $2.2 million but he has not signed yet.
1-32: OF Nick Schnell (my rank: 45)
The first position player the Rays took is a high school outfielder from Indianapolis. Schnell gained steam as draft season moved along, as he demolished low quality competition in Indiana with contact, power, speed, and defense. He has the ability to stick in center field, and if his bat comes along right, he could be a five tool player for the Rays. The bat does have a bit of a long way to go, as its whippy action screams even more future power, but his swing can get out of whack and it could be exposed in pro ball. He's as high risk as it comes, but as the Rays' third pick in the top 32, they can afford those risks, and Schnell's upside is definitely something to dream on. He is expected to sign, though terms have not been released and slot value is just under $2.2 million.
2-56: SS Tyler Frank (my rank: 73)
The Rays went for upside with their first three picks, so they started to switch over to safe bets in the second round, with Tyler Frank being the first in that line. Frank, another Florida native, put up back to back excellent seasons for Florida Atlantic University, culminating with a .300/.436/.547 slash line, 13 home runs, and a 36/52 strikeout to walk ratio this year. There's a lot to like in his profile, as he shows power, patience, and defensive versatility, as well as a track record of hitting in a mid-major conference. He's a lot more floor than upside, with his advanced plate discipline being his likely carrying tool, as his swing and body type don't have much projection at this point; they are what they are. That's okay when you walk in 16.9% of your plate appearances and strike out in just 11.7% while hitting 13 home runs. On defense, he won't wow you, but he can play all over the field, giving him the upside of a valuable utility player in the Marwin Gonzalez mold. He signed for $997,500, which is about $230,000 below slot.
CBB-71: RHP Tanner Dodson (my rank: 97)
With their second straight high floor pick, the Rays grabbed University of California righty Tanner Dodson, an ultra-talented player who actually led the Cape Cod League in batting average this year as part of a .365/.461/.500 slash line there. His future is on the mound, though, as a high-leverage reliever. I tend to drop relievers in my rankings because it seems you can always find unremarkable starting pitchers late in the draft, convert them to the bullpen, and have them step forward from there, but there is something to be said about a guy like Dodson who is a safe bet to reach a major league bullpen soon. In 19 relief appearances for the Golden Bears this season, the 6'1" righty put up a 2.48 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 35/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, averaging just over two innings per outing. He throws in the mid 90's with a very good slider, and with his command, that stuff should already be close to major league ready. He dropped in my rankings because you'd like to see just a few more strikeouts from a college reliever, but the low walk rate is nice to see. He's supposedly close to signing, though terms have not been released. Slot value is $850,700.
4-120: Grant Witherspoon (my rank: 107)
Witherspoon, an outfielder out of Tulane, is a fairly similar player to Frank, just with slightly less plate discipline and without the ability to play the outfield, hence the selection 64 picks later and the ranking 34 places lower on my list. The left handed hitter has improved every year in New Orleans, finishing up with a strong .330/.436/.587 line, 12 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 36/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games this year. He's fast, plays good defense in the outfield, can take a walk, and has some power in him, though I'm just a little concerned that the loop in his swing could lead to contact issue down the road. Think of him as a fourth outfield prospect with the potential to be a bit more if the Rays can channel his swing and his power. He signed at-slot for $460,200.
Others: 3rd rounder Ford Proctor is coming off a big junior season at Rice (.346/.431/.515, 8 HR, 46/37 K/BB), and he brings a scrappy game and defensive versatility to the Rays system. He likely won't be a starter, though he could surprise in a Josh Harrison or Scooter Gennett kind of way, as he does a lot of little things right as a player. He has a very quick swing from the left side that should play up at the next level despite a 16.4% strikeout rate at Rice this year, has already signed, and could move quickly. 5th rounder Taj Bradley, who like Ford Proctor has a great baseball name (they're making up for Nick Schnell and Tyler Frank), may have been the youngest player in the entire draft class, as he just turned 17 in March and would be on the younger side even for a high school junior. The 6'2" right handed pitcher understandably raw, but he's already into the low 90's with a sinking fastball and a pretty good curveball. It's hard to know exactly what to make of him, but the upside is great for the fifth round even if the risk is considerable. They have already signed him away from a South Carolina commitment. 11th rounder Jacson McGowan is more of a college performer than a projectable player, coming off a big junior season at Purdue where he slashed .304/.442/.544 with 13 home runs and a 51/49 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games. With his mediocre defense at first base, his value is strictly tied to his bat, so he'll have to work on his plate discipline (19.3% strikeout rate this year) to tap into his considerable raw power. 13th rounder Trey Cumbie regressed after a huge sophomore season at the University of Houston (first team All-American, 2.04 ERA, 82/15 K/BB) to put up a more pedestrian junior year (3.47 ERA, 110/26 K/BB), but the 6'2" lefty could still work his way through the minors as a back-end starter. 15th rounder Nick Sprengel had designs of going much earlier in the draft after a big sophomore season at the University of San Diego (3.29 ERA, 86/33 K/BB), but he was downright awful as a junior (11.33 ERA, 51/30 K/BB) and couldn't command his pitches whatsoever. He has great stuff, with a low 90's fastball and a solid slider/changeup combination, but his complete inability to know where his pitches were going this year makes him a complete wild card. 38th rounder Garrett Wade definitely won't sign here, but I really like the 6'2" high school lefty and think he could be a high pick in the 2021 draft out of Auburn. The 18 year old throws his fastball around 90 but has deception and life on it, and his slider and curve both look like good breaking balls. With his command, the only real question is whether his fastball velocity can step forward and how durable he can be, but he's definitely one to watch in college ball.
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