2020 Draft Review: Tampa Bay Rays

1-24: RHP Nick Bitsko, Central Bucks East HS (PA)
CBA-37: SS Alika Williams, Arizona State
2-57: LHP Ian Seymour, Virginia Tech
3-96: RHP Hunter Barnhart, St. Joseph HS (CA)
4-125: SS Tanner Murray, UC Davis
5-155: RHP Jeff Hakanson, Central Florida

The best farm system in baseball got even richer in this draft, grabbing two of the top high school pitchers in the country while still getting a diverse array of talent from the college ranks to save money. I'm a really big fan of this class, and honestly I'm not sure how you could not be, and they even managed to wreck a division rival's plans by plucking Nick Bitsko away from them. And they grabbed a hometown kid from Tampa with their last pick. All in all, with just six picks, they covered all the bases they needed to. Good work.
Full index of team profiles here

1-24: RHP Nick Bitsko, Central Bucks East HS, PA (my rank: 18)
This was one of the most interesting picks in the draft, and definitely in a good way. By some accounts the top high school arm in the class (and no worse than the #3 arm by any account), Bitsko was originally slated to be a member of the 2021 class, but reclassified to 2020 over the winter because he would have turned 19 in June 2021. This way, he'll only turn 18 right after draft day, making him relatively young for the class. Bitsko comes from the Philadelphia area and didn't get to pitch at all in game action this year, but he lit up the Rapsodo machines in bullpen work and scouts are confident he can pitch. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched as high as 99, showing very good spin rates that make it really jump on hitters. His curveball is another plus pitch, a high spin hammer with both depth and power. Lastly, he adds in a changeup, but it's behind the other two pitches and will need to be developed. He has a durable 6'4" frame and is a very good strike thrower for his age, and everything comes from a clean delivery, pointing to a very good chance to stick in the rotation. While all high school pitchers carry significant risk, Bitsko is on the safer side within the demographic and comes with ace upside. It looked like the Orioles were eying him with pick #30 after saving money on Heston Kjerstad at #2, but the Rays swooped in at #24. While slot value is $2.83 million, it will likely require significantly more than that to keep Bitsko from following through on his Virginia commitment. Pre-draft profile here.

CBA-37: SS Alika Williams, Arizona State (my rank: 49)
This pick wasn't as exciting as the Bitsko pick, but it's definitely a value selection as a money saver that adds a solid player as well. He's a glove-first guy who is as natural a defender at shortstop as it gets, showing plus instincts and great coordination that enables him to get to pretty much anything hit to his side of second base. At the plate, he has shown a productive bat in college, but he doesn't have a ton of upside. He hit .333/.429/.474 with four home runs as a sophomore, but that dropped to .250/.359/.344 this year. He shows plus bat to ball abilities, striking out just 49 times in 129 career games at Arizona State, making consistent line drive contact to all fields. However, there isn't a ton of power present, and he doesn't project to add much, so he'll always be a contact hitter. That limits his ceiling, though with his plus defense at shortstop, getting on base just enough could lead to a starting job down the road. I see him more as a utility infielder than a true every day guy, especially with Wander Franco covering shortstop. If anybody is going to push Franco off shortstop, though, Williams would be the guy to do it. Slot value was $2 million, but Williams signed for $1.85 million, saving the Rays $150,000 towards Nick Bitsko. Pre-draft profile here.

2-57: LHP Ian Seymour, Virginia Tech (my rank: 71)
The highest draft selection from Virginia Tech since Joe Saunders went twelfth overall to the Angels in 2002, Seymour has been rising quickly over the past calendar year. He was more of a junkballer as an underclassman, but he went to the Cape over the summer and added power to his fastball, sitting in the low 90's and posting a 2.48 ERA and a sharp 39/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. He adds a plus changeup with exceptional fade in addition to an average slider, and everything plays up because the funk in his delivery enables him to hide the ball really well. That made him mildly successful early in his career, but now that he's touching 94 with that fastball, he's a legitimate starting pitching prospect. He was off to a really strong start in 2020, holding that velocity and putting up a 2.21 ERA and 40/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings, and he struck out 14 against Georgia Tech in his final start. There is some reliever risk due to his size (six foot even) and that funky delivery, but he's been trending up quickly enough that h e has a really good shot to stick in the rotation and the Rays certainly think so. With his solid command that enables him to tunnel his pitches off each other, in addition to how tough it can be to pick the ball up out of his hand, his stuff plays up significantly. I definitely like this pick for the Rays, especially if they end up saving money off of his $1.24 million slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

3-96: RHP Hunter Barnhart, St. Joseph HS, CA (my rank: 53)
This is another great pick for the Rays. In a lot of ways, Hunter Barnhart is kind of Nick Bitsko-lite. A standout quarterback at Paso Robles High School in California, he intrigued scouts with his pitchability and breaking ball but his upper 80's fastball was a little light. However, after transferring to St. Joseph High School down in Santa Maria, he came out this spring firing in the low 90's, and suddenly he's a much more interesting prospect. In addition to that low 90's fastball, he throws a big curveball with plus depth, and it should continue to function as an out pitch in pro ball. He doesn't have much of a changeup at this point, but instead, he fills up the strike zone extremely well and projects for plus command down the line. With a durable 6'2" frame, he brings a lot of starter's traits to the table, and comes with less risk than the typical high school arm. Aside from the ever-present injury risk, all he really needs to do is develop a changeup and keep hitting his spots like he does, and he has a floor of a back end starter if he does. He signed for $585,000, which was $19,800 below slot, giving the Rays fantastic value at the back of the top 100. Pre-draft profile here.

4-125: SS Tanner Murray, UC Davis (unranked)
Murray is an interesting pick for the Rays coming out of UC Davis, one of the better line drive hitters in college baseball. He's been as consistent as they come for three years with the Aggies, slashing .343/.394/.469 with three home runs and a 46/32 strikeout to walk ratio across 115 games, topping out with a .364 average in 2019. He employs a simple, line drive stroke that consistently peppers baseballs over the heads of infielders and into gaps, though he doesn't have much present over the fence power and doesn't really have the speed to profile for a ton of doubles and triples. He hit just .221/.278/.336 in 37 games on the Cape, furthering questions about how much impact he'll hit for, but the track record over at school is as consistent as they come. He's also steadily been hitting for more and more power throughout his college career, but it still ain't much. With a fairly projectable 6'2" frame, though, he could probably get close to average power if he and the Rays want to develop that way as a hitter. Murray can play pretty decent shortstop, but with the depth of middle infielders in the Rays system, he'll most likely be outplayed at that position by guys like Alika Williams and Wander Franco. The ultimate projection is probably a middle infielder here. Slot value is $455,600, though I imagine Murray might take a slight discount.

5-155: RHP Jeff Hakanson, Central Florida (unranked)
The I-4 corridor is absolutely brimming with talent, so it would be surprised if the Rays didn't end up with a hometown kid. Jeff Hakanson attended Jesuit High School in Tampa, then headed up I-4 to UCF for college. He's been an absolute strikeout machine for the Knights, striking out 26 in 14.2 innings as a freshman, 52 in 26.2 innings as a sophomore, and an incredible 20 in 8.1 innings as a junior. For those keeping track, that was 20 out of 28 batters he faced in 2020 and 98 strikeouts in 49.2 innings overall. His best pitch is easily his mid 90's fastball, a high spin pitch that is extremely difficult to square up coming from his long arm action. He has a solid slider as well that's an above average pitch, but with Hakanson, the fastball is the true weapon that nobody has been able to touch. The command is average and he'll probably need to sharpen that slider a little bit more going forward if he wants to be anything more than a middle reliever, but he should move pretty quickly and he has closer – or opener – upside down the road. He signed for $340,000, right at slot value.

Undrafted: The Rays are yet to sign any undrafted free agents.

2020 Draft Profile: Ian Seymour

LHP Ian Seymour, Virginia Tech
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 12/13/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 40/5 K/BB in 20.1 IP

Of course, I spent four years at Virginia Tech from 2016-2019, and in that time the highest drafted players we had were Packy Naughton (9th round, Reds, 2017), Andrew McDonald (9th round, Reds, 2018), Aaron McGarrity (15th round, Yankees, 2017), and Kerry Carpenter (19th round, Tigers, 2019). I enjoyed watching Naughton during my freshman and sophomore years, though he put up ERA's north of 6.00 in both seasons and has been much, much better in pro ball. In 2020, though I wasn't there to see it, the Hokies finally have a top three rounds draft prospect, as Worcester, MA native Ian Seymour broke out with a big Cape performance and a louder, if shorter, junior season. He put up decent number as a sophomore (3.97 ERA, 81/24 K/BB), though I didn't make it to as many games that year as I would have liked, then he came out and dominated on the Cape (2.48 ERA, 39/6 K/BB in 25.1 IP). Coming out in 2020, he was even better, putting up a 2.21 ERA and a 40/5 strikeout to walk ratio across just 20.1 innings, finishing off his VT career on a loud note with 14 strikeouts against Georgia Tech. I was planning on heading to Blacksburg to watch his next start against Miami, but that one never happened.

Seymour is one of those guys where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. He added a tick of velocity this spring and sat consistently in the low 90's, and also throws a slider and a changeup. The slider stands out more for its velocity than its movement, but it tunnels well with his fastball and has some nice two-plane bite. The changeup is easily his best pitch, coming in with great arm-side fade and missing a ton of bats both on the Cape and in NCAA play. Everything he throws plays up because of his funky left handed delivery, which helps him, hide the ball, disrupt timing, and get good angle on his pitches. Throw in above average command, and he's suddenly a very tough pitcher to square up.

In the past, there have been significant reliever questions with Seymour, as he's shorter for a pitcher at six feet tall, has that funky delivery, and didn't throw all that hard. The Cape performance and especially his spring performance have helped shed that "funky lefty" label and made him into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. He'll still face some reliever questions until he sharpens up that slider, but they don't dominate the discussion anymore. There are a lot of similarities to Wake Forest lefty Jared Shuster here, including that they're both ACC lefties from Massachusetts, though Shuster throws a bit harder.

Seymour has quietly worked his way from fourth/fifth round discussions up into the second/third round. He has the upside of a #3/#4 starting pitcher who could fall back as a funky, fastball/changeup lefty reliever, and he's trending more quickly towards the former than the latter. His three pitch mix, combined with a delivery that makes it tough to pick the ball up and the ability to spot his pitches generally where he wants them, not to mention his handedness, makes him a very intriguing arm that a lot of teams could try to jump at. I'm still disappointed I didn't go see him as often as I could have during my senior/his sophomore year.

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