First five rounds: JJ Bleday (1-4), Kameron Misner (CBA-35), Nasim Nunez (2-46), Peyton Burdick (3-82), Evan Edwards (4-111), Evan Fitterer (5-141)
Also notable: Bryan Hoeing (7-201), Zach King (13-381)
The Marlins went bats early, starting off with five straight to really inject some offense into their farm system. JJ Bleday, Kameron Misner, Peyton Burdick, and Evan Edwards bring a ton of power to the table, while Misner and Nasim Nunez will help them on the defensive side. They then grabbed three straight pitchers starting in the fifth round, most notably Evan Fitterer, a projectable high school arm who received second round money to divert him away from UCLA.
1-4: OF JJ Bleday (Vanderbilt, my rank: 5)
JJ Bleday entered the season a potential first round pick, one who had power potential and plate discipline but who hadn't quite put it together. He slashed .368/.494/.511 with four home runs as a sophomore then .311/.374/.500 with five home runs in the elite Cape Cod League that summer, giving hope that the power might show up in 2019. Well, it did. The Panama City, Florida native was the star power bat for the College World Series-winning Vanderbilt Commodores, slashing .347/.465/.701 with 27 home runs and a 58/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games, leading the nation in home runs despite playing through Vanderbilt's tough SEC schedule. He's a 6'3" left handed hitter that generates a ton of power from a smooth, quick swing, and the ball really jumps off his bat. With his combination of power, feel for the barrel, and plate discipline, he should be a safe bet to be an impact hitter at the next level, one who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he's decent in right field but has a cannon arm. Bleday signed for $6.67 million, about $10,000 above slot, and he's slashing .148/.179/.259 with a home run and a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over eight games in an aggressive assignment to High A Jupiter.
CBA-35: OF Kameron Misner (Missouri, my rank: 29)
Kameron Misner, like Bleday, came into the season a potential first round pick, but his up and down junior season left evaluators feeling like they knew less about him than when the season started. He slashed .360/.497/.576 as a sophomore last year but broke his foot shortly into conference play and never got to prove himself against better pitching, so this year was going to be his chance. However, he dipped to just .286/.440/.481 with ten home runs and a 58/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for the Tigers, including a head-scratchingly bad .222/.353/.315 line in SEC play. Misner is a great athlete at 6'4" that shows power from a quick bat, and given his size you can only imagine him adding more. He also has good plate discipline and his patience at the plate enabled him to walk in 20.3% of his plate appearances this year, though he did also strike out in 21.8%. He's also a great defender in the outfield and could stick in center field with his speed and arm strength, giving all the more reason to project him as a potential five tool player. That's why the bad run through SEC play is just so frustrating, because Misner is so close to being a star. However, because he's a college bat that has struggled against advanced pitching, there are questions as to whether he'll actually figure it out, and the Marlins will hope to get him there. Misner signed for $2.12 million, about $20,000 above slot, and he's slashing .118/.375/.118 with a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over five games in the complex level Gulf Coast League.
2-46: SS Nasim Nunez (Collins Hill HS [GA], my rank: 68)
Nasim Nunez, aside from having an 80-grade baseball name, is fun to watch. The Atlanta-area high schooler is one of the best defenders in the class, easily gliding around the infield and making highlight-reel plays at shortstop. That defensive ability will give his bat all the time in the world to develop, and if he hits at all, he should be at least a utility man. However, the bat does have a long way to go. Listed at 5'9" and 160 pounds, Nunez lacks the ability to impact the ball consistently, and he likely won't ever hit for much power at all. He's a switch hitter with a smoother swing from the right side, but it's still a ground ball and line drive oriented swing. Getting on base will be the key for helping him deploy his easy plus speed, so we'll see how his plate discipline develops in pro ball. Originally committed to Clemson, Nunez signed for $2.2 million, which was $580,000 above slot, and he's slashing .227/.350/.278 with 12 stolen bases and a 27/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games in the Gulf Coast League.
3-82: OF Peyton Burdick (Wright State, unranked)
Peyton Burdick has consistently gotten better at Wright State despite missing all of 2017, what would have been his sophomore season, with Tommy John surgery. This year, as a redshirt junior, he slashed an incredible .407/.538/.729 with 15 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 35/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. Burdick has a ton of whip in his swing that produces plenty of power, and he also has strong enough plate discipline and feel for the barrel that he can get to it more often than not. While the great numbers came against weaker competition in the Horizon League, the Cincinnati-area native also held his own on the Cape, where he slashed .252/.351/.435 with five home runs in 38 games. He also runs well and plays good defense in the outfield, and showing a good all-around game. On the down side, he turned 22 in February, giving him less development time than some of his peers drafted in the same range. Overall, because his skills were amplified a bit in the Horizon League, Burdick profiles as an average all-around player who can hit 20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages if everything breaks right and he can adjust to pro pitching well. He signed for $397,500, which was $346,700 below slot, and he's slashing .299/.385/.500 with four home runs and a 34/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games between short season Batavia and Class A Clinton.
4-111: 1B Evan Edwards (North Carolina State, unranked)
One of the best hitters in a stacked NC State lineup this year, Evan Edwards brings more power to this power-heavy draft class. As a senior this year, the Greensboro, North Carolina native slashed .330/.455/.604 with 14 home runs and a 47/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, leading the team in on-base percentage and finishing second to Angels first rounder Will Wilson in just about everything else. Edwards has a fairly long swing, but his quick hands help get the bat through the zone and help him hit for plus raw power, which he gets to in games and against quality ACC pitching. As a first baseman, the pressure will be on his bat, but with his combination of power and plate discipline, he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with middling on-base percentages if things break right. One thing to watch will be his strikeout rate, as the length in his swing does cause some swing and miss and will be exploited in pro ball. He's also a senior who turned 22 shortly after the draft and stands at "just" six feet tall, so he's not quite a guarantee. Edwards signed for $122,500, which was $400,100 below slot, and he's slashing .272/.359/.419 with four home runs and a 47/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games between Batavia and Clinton.
5-141: RHP Evan Fitterer (Aliso Niguel HS [CA], my rank: 78)
This was the big overslot signing, as the Marlins gave Evan Fitterer second round money here in the fifth round. Fitterer was a high schooler from Southern California armed with a low 90's fastball, two breaking balls, and a changeup that might be his best pitch. He's projectable at 6'3" and with a quick arm, and he also commands everything pretty well. The changeup and command are both very advanced for a high school pitcher, though he did turn 19 in June and is old for the class. He also occasionally sees velocity dips, though that should be alleviated once he fills out a little more and gets on a pro throwing program. Overall, he doesn't have the biggest upside but profiles as a mid-rotation starter if everything comes together, with a key for him being sharpening one or both of his average breaking balls. Committed to UCLA, Fitterer signed for $1.5 million, over $1.1 million above slot, and he has a 1.04 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and an 8/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.2 innings in the Gulf Coast League.
7-201: RHP Bryan Hoeing (Louisville, unranked)
Bryan Hoeing has been great in a swingman role for Louisville, but the Marlins are likely to use him as a full time reliever. In 2019, the Batesville, Indiana native had a 3.00 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 75/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 innings, making 17 relief appearances and five starts. He's a big guy at 6'6" and he uses that size to fire a low 90's fastball, a decent curveball, and a good splitter. He doesn't throw with much effort, but the stuff is just a bit light if he wants to remain a starter in pro ball and it will play up in the bullpen full time. A redshirt junior, he already turned 22 in October. He signed at slot for $229,700, and he has a 1.50 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 3/2 strikeout to walk ratio through six innings for Batavia.
13-381: LHP Zach King (Vanderbilt, unranked)
Zach King never quite put it together for Vanderbilt, but he has some upside if the Marlins can help him get on track. The Tennessean from just outside the Nashville area had a 6.18 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and a 47/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings, showing very good stuff but ultimately getting hit harder than he should have. He's a 6'6" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider, albeit one without that sharp break that you want, and those two pitches enabled him to get a bunch of strikeouts in the SEC. However, his command comes and goes and he was hit when he fell behind in the count, so the Marlins will want him to improve there to end up a middle reliever down the line. King signed for $125,000 and has thrown three shutout innings, striking out three, in the Gulf Coast League so far.
Showing posts with label Nasim Nunez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nasim Nunez. Show all posts
Friday, July 26, 2019
Friday, May 17, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Shortstops
Shortstop is always one of the deepest positions at first glance, but many of these guys end up pushed off the position over to second or third base, and I tried to include those guys over with those positions. Still, the ability to play and stay at shortstop is a huge boon to a player's draft stock, as shortstops who can hit are hard to come by and when they are found, they become stars (see Francisco Lindor, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter). This year's crop is especially deep, especially at the college level (I pushed college shortstops Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake, and Brady McConnell to the second base list), though some high school bats are showing some real helium as of late.
Tier I: Bobby Witt Jr., CJ Abrams
These two are the top two shortstops – and top two high school players – in the class. The consensus is that Bobby Witt Jr. is the top high school player in the country on his own, as he looked like a very strong four tool player over the summer and has come out this spring looking closer to a five tool guy. The son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, Junior is a power hitter with a lanky frame at six feet tall, using his large swing to generate power that should produce 20-30 home runs per season. That big swing led to some swing and miss on the showcase circuit, but he has reportedly hit for better contact against local Dallas-area high school competition in the spring and scouts are not worried about it failing to play up. Defensively, he is a lock to stay at shortstop, making him a potential impact player on both offense and defense. He is a lock to go in the first five picks, most likely to the Royals at second overall. Meanwhile, over in Atlanta, CJ Abrams has rode a great summer and spring to a likely top five draft selection. He isn't quite on the same level as Witt, but Abrams is one of the best athletes in the class with top of the scale speed, great feel for the barrel, and a strong arm. He lacks the current bulk to impact the ball and project for high home run totals, but he has long levers and because he can find the barrel so consistently, scouts think he can end up with double-digit home runs and plenty of doubles and triples. Defensively, he uses his athleticism well, but scouts are not sold that he can stay at shortstop. If he can, his value is maximized, but a move to second base or center field is possible, the latter of which would enable him to use his exceptional speed to track down baseballs. It would be hard to see him falling past the Padres at pick number six, and he has a chance to go as high as third to the White Sox.
Tier II: Bryson Stott, Logan Davidson, Gunnar Henderson
While the second tier of shortstops aren't the low risk, high reward caliber of the first tier, they still have strong impact potential if things break right. Bryson Stott is this year's top college shortstop, putting up a huge breakout season for UNLV by slashing .361/.490/.624 with ten home runs and a 38/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Stott's breakout comes on the heels of criticism that his approach was too contact-oriented, but he's added power this year and while his strikeout rate has more than doubled, it was so low to begin with that that isn't a big deal. As it stands now, he is a high on-base hitter who has added power without sacrificing too much contact ability (his batting average only dropped from .365 to .361), one who should be a safe bet to hit at the next level. He's not as safe of a bet to stick at shortstop, with the chance of having to move to third base, but his bat profiles well at the hot corner and he still has a good shot at remaining at shortstop. He should go in the top half of the first round. Over at Clemson, Logan Davidson is a different player than his former teammate, 2018 Astros first round pick Seth Beer, but scouts face a similar conundrum with him. He has put up very strong numbers in the ACC, this year slashing .297/.415/.593 with 14 home runs and a 50/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games against strong competition, but he has struggled with wood bats, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Beer struggled on the Cape and mashed with Clemson, and now he's hitting well in the minors, but Davidson's statistical discrepancies still give some scouts pause. He has power and gets on base but he strikes out a lot, giving him high upside at the plate but also more risk than you're typical first round college bat. Defensively, he'll stick at shortstop with his strong defense, which will buy his bat time, and he figures to go in the back half of the first round. On the high school side, Gunnar Henderson has hit his way from the second round up into the first round, showing an improving all-around game all spring long. The Alabama native is a strong all-around hitter who makes plenty of contact and has shown improved power this season, which combined with his improving defense at shortstop, gives him the chance to be an all-around contributor like Corey Seager. With a June birthday, he's also fairly young as far as high schoolers go, and by playing out in Selma, Alabama, he likely hasn't gotten the top of the line instruction that some kids in places like Atlanta, South Florida, or Los Angeles are getting. He looks to go in the back half of the first round but there are rumors that he could sneak into the middle.
Tier III: Will Holland, Greg Jones, Kyren Paris, Anthony Volpe, Nasim Nunez, Yordys Valdes
Once you get past the top five in this class (at least as I have defined the shortstops), there is a large set of high upside guys with varying skill sets, so teams will have their pick of exactly what they're looking for. Auburn shortstop Will Holland came into the season as a potential first rounder after a strong sophomore season (12 HR, .313/.406/.530, 49/28 K/BB) and a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.341/.431/.432), but he has slumped significantly as a junior, slashing .247/.378/.403 with seven home runs and a 49/27 strikeout to walk ratio and now looks more like a second or even a third rounder. Fortunately, his bat has picked up a little bit as of late, but he still doesn't look like the same hitter he was a year ago. The tools, whippy swing, and strong defense are still there, the latter of which will buy his bat time to develop, but he's a much higher risk proposition than he used to be and could turn into anything from a starting shortstop to a light hitting utility guy. UNC-Wilmington's Greg Jones has an interesting profile, with very apparent strengths and equally apparent weaknesses. Jones is slashing .332/.478/.518 with four home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 39/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games, though he hasn't faced the strongest competition in the Colonial Athletic Association. Jones draws a ton of walks, which is especially helpful as a likely leadoff type with top of the scale speed, and he showed that speed off with 20 stolen bases in 37 Cape Cod League games this past summer. He also hits plenty of doubles and triples, and some think that he could grow into his 6'2" frame a bit more and add more power. Defensively, he looks good on the right day but can lose focus at shortstop and may be forced to move to center field, where he has looked very good in the past due to his exceptional speed. Look for Jones to go in the second round. Kyren Paris, like Gunnar Henderson, has seen his name shooting up draft boards, though he still stands a hair behind his Alabama counterpart. Paris is a high schooler near Oakland, California, who makes consistent hard contact with the potential to add some power once he adds loft to his swing. Defensively, he is a very strong shortstop with a very good chance to stay there, giving him high upside on both sides of the ball. Additionally, he doesn't turn 18 until November, which makes him one of the youngest players available and which gives him plenty of time to grow into his skills. He has moved himself from a third-ish rounder to more of a fringe first rounder, but he has drawn considerable interest from teams as high as the middle of the first round. Anthony Volpe, a New Jersey high schooler, is yet another kid with serious helium, pushing his way from the third to the second round. Volpe won't wow you with any of his tools, but he is considered one of the hardest working, most likable players in the draft. He's more of a contact hitter than a power hitter, but he makes consistent contact and should maximize his skill set there. Defensively, he looks more like a second baseman at first glance, but he is extremely scrappy and will do everything he can to remain a shortstop. The sum of the parts are in the utility-infielder range, but scouts are quick to say that he should not be underestimated and think the whole could be much more than that. Nasim Nunez is another guy who scouts fall in love with just due to the way he plays the game. The Atlanta high schooler is an exceptional shortstop who will not only stick there, but provide significant positive value and contend for Gold Gloves. However, his bat is far behind his glove, as he is listed at 5'9" and 155 pounds and lacks the ability to drive the ball for any kind of significant power. He makes consistent contact, and whichever team drafts him will hope that he can grow into enough gap power to justify his spot in a starting lineup. He and Volpe both look like second rounders who could sneak into the comp round. Lastly, Yordys Valdes has a fairly similar profile to Nunez, though Nunez is clearly the better player. Valdes is a high schooler near Miami, also showing fantastic defense at shortstop despite significantly less speed than Nunez. He also has shown some feel for the barrel, but his bat is even behind that of Nunez, making him more likely to end up a utility infielder. He figures to be a third round pick with the chance to sneaking into the second.
Others: Tanner Morris, Grae Kessinger, Ivan Johnson, Michael Curialle, Myles Austin
Tier I: Bobby Witt Jr., CJ Abrams
These two are the top two shortstops – and top two high school players – in the class. The consensus is that Bobby Witt Jr. is the top high school player in the country on his own, as he looked like a very strong four tool player over the summer and has come out this spring looking closer to a five tool guy. The son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, Junior is a power hitter with a lanky frame at six feet tall, using his large swing to generate power that should produce 20-30 home runs per season. That big swing led to some swing and miss on the showcase circuit, but he has reportedly hit for better contact against local Dallas-area high school competition in the spring and scouts are not worried about it failing to play up. Defensively, he is a lock to stay at shortstop, making him a potential impact player on both offense and defense. He is a lock to go in the first five picks, most likely to the Royals at second overall. Meanwhile, over in Atlanta, CJ Abrams has rode a great summer and spring to a likely top five draft selection. He isn't quite on the same level as Witt, but Abrams is one of the best athletes in the class with top of the scale speed, great feel for the barrel, and a strong arm. He lacks the current bulk to impact the ball and project for high home run totals, but he has long levers and because he can find the barrel so consistently, scouts think he can end up with double-digit home runs and plenty of doubles and triples. Defensively, he uses his athleticism well, but scouts are not sold that he can stay at shortstop. If he can, his value is maximized, but a move to second base or center field is possible, the latter of which would enable him to use his exceptional speed to track down baseballs. It would be hard to see him falling past the Padres at pick number six, and he has a chance to go as high as third to the White Sox.
Tier II: Bryson Stott, Logan Davidson, Gunnar Henderson
While the second tier of shortstops aren't the low risk, high reward caliber of the first tier, they still have strong impact potential if things break right. Bryson Stott is this year's top college shortstop, putting up a huge breakout season for UNLV by slashing .361/.490/.624 with ten home runs and a 38/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Stott's breakout comes on the heels of criticism that his approach was too contact-oriented, but he's added power this year and while his strikeout rate has more than doubled, it was so low to begin with that that isn't a big deal. As it stands now, he is a high on-base hitter who has added power without sacrificing too much contact ability (his batting average only dropped from .365 to .361), one who should be a safe bet to hit at the next level. He's not as safe of a bet to stick at shortstop, with the chance of having to move to third base, but his bat profiles well at the hot corner and he still has a good shot at remaining at shortstop. He should go in the top half of the first round. Over at Clemson, Logan Davidson is a different player than his former teammate, 2018 Astros first round pick Seth Beer, but scouts face a similar conundrum with him. He has put up very strong numbers in the ACC, this year slashing .297/.415/.593 with 14 home runs and a 50/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games against strong competition, but he has struggled with wood bats, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Beer struggled on the Cape and mashed with Clemson, and now he's hitting well in the minors, but Davidson's statistical discrepancies still give some scouts pause. He has power and gets on base but he strikes out a lot, giving him high upside at the plate but also more risk than you're typical first round college bat. Defensively, he'll stick at shortstop with his strong defense, which will buy his bat time, and he figures to go in the back half of the first round. On the high school side, Gunnar Henderson has hit his way from the second round up into the first round, showing an improving all-around game all spring long. The Alabama native is a strong all-around hitter who makes plenty of contact and has shown improved power this season, which combined with his improving defense at shortstop, gives him the chance to be an all-around contributor like Corey Seager. With a June birthday, he's also fairly young as far as high schoolers go, and by playing out in Selma, Alabama, he likely hasn't gotten the top of the line instruction that some kids in places like Atlanta, South Florida, or Los Angeles are getting. He looks to go in the back half of the first round but there are rumors that he could sneak into the middle.
Tier III: Will Holland, Greg Jones, Kyren Paris, Anthony Volpe, Nasim Nunez, Yordys Valdes
Once you get past the top five in this class (at least as I have defined the shortstops), there is a large set of high upside guys with varying skill sets, so teams will have their pick of exactly what they're looking for. Auburn shortstop Will Holland came into the season as a potential first rounder after a strong sophomore season (12 HR, .313/.406/.530, 49/28 K/BB) and a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.341/.431/.432), but he has slumped significantly as a junior, slashing .247/.378/.403 with seven home runs and a 49/27 strikeout to walk ratio and now looks more like a second or even a third rounder. Fortunately, his bat has picked up a little bit as of late, but he still doesn't look like the same hitter he was a year ago. The tools, whippy swing, and strong defense are still there, the latter of which will buy his bat time to develop, but he's a much higher risk proposition than he used to be and could turn into anything from a starting shortstop to a light hitting utility guy. UNC-Wilmington's Greg Jones has an interesting profile, with very apparent strengths and equally apparent weaknesses. Jones is slashing .332/.478/.518 with four home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 39/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games, though he hasn't faced the strongest competition in the Colonial Athletic Association. Jones draws a ton of walks, which is especially helpful as a likely leadoff type with top of the scale speed, and he showed that speed off with 20 stolen bases in 37 Cape Cod League games this past summer. He also hits plenty of doubles and triples, and some think that he could grow into his 6'2" frame a bit more and add more power. Defensively, he looks good on the right day but can lose focus at shortstop and may be forced to move to center field, where he has looked very good in the past due to his exceptional speed. Look for Jones to go in the second round. Kyren Paris, like Gunnar Henderson, has seen his name shooting up draft boards, though he still stands a hair behind his Alabama counterpart. Paris is a high schooler near Oakland, California, who makes consistent hard contact with the potential to add some power once he adds loft to his swing. Defensively, he is a very strong shortstop with a very good chance to stay there, giving him high upside on both sides of the ball. Additionally, he doesn't turn 18 until November, which makes him one of the youngest players available and which gives him plenty of time to grow into his skills. He has moved himself from a third-ish rounder to more of a fringe first rounder, but he has drawn considerable interest from teams as high as the middle of the first round. Anthony Volpe, a New Jersey high schooler, is yet another kid with serious helium, pushing his way from the third to the second round. Volpe won't wow you with any of his tools, but he is considered one of the hardest working, most likable players in the draft. He's more of a contact hitter than a power hitter, but he makes consistent contact and should maximize his skill set there. Defensively, he looks more like a second baseman at first glance, but he is extremely scrappy and will do everything he can to remain a shortstop. The sum of the parts are in the utility-infielder range, but scouts are quick to say that he should not be underestimated and think the whole could be much more than that. Nasim Nunez is another guy who scouts fall in love with just due to the way he plays the game. The Atlanta high schooler is an exceptional shortstop who will not only stick there, but provide significant positive value and contend for Gold Gloves. However, his bat is far behind his glove, as he is listed at 5'9" and 155 pounds and lacks the ability to drive the ball for any kind of significant power. He makes consistent contact, and whichever team drafts him will hope that he can grow into enough gap power to justify his spot in a starting lineup. He and Volpe both look like second rounders who could sneak into the comp round. Lastly, Yordys Valdes has a fairly similar profile to Nunez, though Nunez is clearly the better player. Valdes is a high schooler near Miami, also showing fantastic defense at shortstop despite significantly less speed than Nunez. He also has shown some feel for the barrel, but his bat is even behind that of Nunez, making him more likely to end up a utility infielder. He figures to be a third round pick with the chance to sneaking into the second.
Others: Tanner Morris, Grae Kessinger, Ivan Johnson, Michael Curialle, Myles Austin
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