I really like what the Diamondbacks did at the top of the draft, bringing in who I believe to be the best player in the class followed by the pitcher with the best combination of stuff and command in the class, followed by the best hitter in college baseball. However, the draft quickly got odd, as they wound up with four unsigned high schoolers on day three despite coming in about $350,000 below their bonus pool and $1.1 million below the 5% overage allowance. So the fact that they couldn't sign Malachi Witherspoon, Aiva Arquette, Gavin Turley, or Riley Kelly comes down to some combination of cheaping out on the single most cost-effective way to add talent and underestimating the bonus demands of those four. They never expected to sign all four, but I have to imagine they hoped to come away with at least one, and either ownership closed the purse or all four wanted more than the roughly $475,000 they could spend without going over the pool. Still, I'm sure they could have gotten at least one if not two deals done if they had used that 5% overage. Just odd. Among the guys they did sign, I already mentioned that I loved the first couple of picks, and I also think Nogales star Demetrio Crisantes is a very interesting sleeper.
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1-2: OF Druw Jones, Wesleyan HS [GA]. My rank: #1.
Slot value: $8.19 million. Signing bonus: $8.19 million.
Druw Jones, in my opinion, is the single best player in this class. That makes getting him at the second pick a steal in my book, especially given the Diamondbacks' success with other prep bats like Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, and Jordan Lawlar. Druw Jones looks like a potential superstar, and I don't say that lightly – not every draft produces one. The son of former five time All Star and hopefully soon-to-be Hall of Famer Andruw Jones, Druw is just oozing with potential. He's built exactly like you draw them up, with a long, rangy, 6'4" frame with plenty of present strength and room to add considerably more. Not only that, but he's extremely athletic as well, registering plus-plus run times and simply moving gracefully around the field and in the box. That huge speed helps make him an exceptional defender in center field, where he also shows the excellent instincts you'd expect as the sone of arguably the greatest defensive outfielder of all time. Throw in a plus arm and you have a potential perennial Gold Glover out there. At the plate, Jones is equally impressive. He holds his hands high but gets on plane with the pitch early, staying through the zone to produce plus power to all fields. His approach is presently geared towards pulling the ball to left field, but he shows exceptional plate coverage and can still do so on the outer half of the plate. When he does go the other way, he still has plenty of pop in his bat to send the ball out over the right field fence as well. As the Atlanta-area native gets stronger and more mature, he'll have all the tools and natural ability ready to work from. To top it off, there isn't much swing and miss in his game at present and he really hasn't been challenged even facing the premium pitchers in his class. All together, it's a pretty maxed out profile with very, very little to nitpick and lots to dream on. Of course there is still plenty of development to be done given that he's only 18, but compared to his peers, he's ahead of them all. I see a perennial All Star in this profile. Unfortunately, just like Corbin Carroll and Jordan Lawlar before him, he injured his shoulder almost immediately after signing and will miss the season, but I can't wait to see him back on the field in 2023.
CBA-34: RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State. My rank: #23.
Slot value: $2.26 million. Signing bonus: $2.35 million ($88,750 above slot value).
Landon Sims has one of the most fun profiles in the draft, and the Diamondbacks are thrilled to get what they (and I) believe is a first round talent for only a small over slot bonus in the competitive balance round. Sims was a well known draft prospect out of high school, but made it to campus at Mississippi State and rocketed to fame as the closer on their 2021 National Championship team, where he posted a 1.44 ERA and a 100/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings. Converting to a starter in 2022, he was dominant once again to start out but was pulled from his third start in the midst of striking out ten of the first eleven batters he faced. Unfortunately, Sims ended up needing Tommy John surgery, so he finished the year with a 1.15 ERA and a 27/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.2 innings as a starter. So what do we have here? The Atlanta-area native has one of the best two-pitch mixes college baseball has seen in recent memory between his fastball and his slider. Sims' fastball sits in the mid 90's and gets up to 98, but plays above its velocity with tremendous riding life. You can throw a straight 96 or you can throw 96 that looks like it's exploding out of your hand, and this fastball is certainly the latter. Next we have an equally devastating slider, another plus-plus pitch with late, hard bite that left virtually the entire SEC helpless last year. Those two pitches helped him rack up a 46.9% strikeout rate as a sophomore (for reference, only Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader, Craig Kimbrel [twice], and Edwin Diaz [if he keeps this pace] have ever bested that mark in a single season, min. 50 IP). In anticipation of moving to the rotation this spring, he added a changeup over the offseason and it looked like a potential above average pitch in workouts. It seems like he was waiting for SEC play to break it out so we didn't get to see it much in game play, but it would give him that third pitch necessary to start. Most hard throwing college relievers have command problems, but Sims is actually above average in that regard and pounds the strike zone, going right after hitters consistently and working ahead in the count often. That is a huge piece in projecting him as a starter, and he walked just two batters in those 15.2 innings as a starter this spring. To top it all off, the sturdy, 6'2" righty is an absolute fire breathing bulldog on the mound that lives for the bright lights and high pressure situations. Between the stuff, command, size, and competitiveness, he's a pretty complete package that brings everything except a track record as a starter. Once healthy, I'm again excited to see where this goes.
2-43: 1B Ivan Melendez, Texas. My rank: #63.
Slot value: $1.82 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($418,500 below slot value).
In Ivan Melendez, the Diamondbacks got arguably the single best *right now* hitter in amateur baseball. A semi-hometown pick from El Paso, which is actually closer to Chase Field in Phoenix than it is to any other MLB stadium, the Hispanic Titanic began his college career at Odessa JC and transferred to Texas in 2021, where he earned significant day two draft interest but ultimately wound up returning to school to cut his strikeout rate. That move paid off in a big way, as he looked like a man amongst boys this spring with 32 home runs, a .387/.508/.863 slash line, and a 51/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. Melendez produces mammoth exit velocities with a lightning quick right handed swing and 225 pounds of brute strength packed into his 6'3" frame, helping him lead all of Division I baseball in home runs by three over second place Luke Franzoni of Xavier (Angels, 19th round). He lofts the ball extremely well with a steep uppercut, helping all of his plus-plus raw power play in games and it will continue to do so. Last year, that uppercut led to a 26.1% strikeout rate that scared teams off, but he dropped it to 16.2% this spring and now may have a fringe-average hit tool. He's recognizing pitches better and getting his barrel there more efficiently, though opposing pitchers may still be able to find holes in his swing in pro ball. Melendez will always have to deal with strikeouts, so the key will be patching up as many holes as he can, accepting the strikeouts that do come, and just doing immense damage when he does make contact. Based off of what he did in 2022, that contact should come much more often now. A year ago, he served as Texas' DH, but he took over as the every day first baseman this spring and showed well. An average or above average first baseman still does not provide much defensive value, but it's something and he should have plenty of bat to profile there regardless. Worst case scenario, he should be a power hitting bench bat and could move quickly if his approach translates to pro pitching. So far, he's slashing .206/.365/.353 with two home runs and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Visalia.
3-82: LHP Nate Savino, Virginia. My rank: #117.
Slot value: $782,400. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($82,400 below slot value).
Nate Savino is a really, really hard one to pin down. A potential first round pick out of high school in 2020, he reclassified and came to Virginia a year early and immediately slotted into the rotation when the season began shortly after his 18th birthday. In 2021, he looked more good than great and the prospect shine wore off a little, and then while he showed flashes of bigger things to come in 2022, he just as often looked ordinary out there. The final numbers this spring came out to a 3.69 ERA and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, highlighted by a complete game shutout against Duke and on the opposite end, three straight starts against Georgia Tech, Miami, and Pittsburgh in which he allowed six runs apiece (not all earned). Savino was up to 96 with his fastball as a high schooler and showed flashes of that velocity this spring, but also sat closer to 90 at times with average life from a wide slot. He flashes an above average slider and a solid changeup from that slot, coming across the plate with east-west action, but those pitches are inconsistent as well and can flatten out. They were on more often than not this spring and he bumped his strikeout rate from a very low 14.3% as a sophomore to a decent 23.1% as a junior, which is progress for sure. Additionally, the 6'3" lefty has a durable frame and repeats his delivery well, leading to solid average command, and it could potentially improve to above average in the Arizona development system. The Diamondbacks are really buying the youth here, as Savino doesn't turn 21 until January and most kids his age would be heading back to campus for their draft year right now, ready to build on their profile. The Northern Virginia native showed just how talented he was back in high school and glimpses of that talent are shining through more and more often now, even if he hasn't quite put it all together like the coaching staff in Charlottesville hoped. To me it looks like a #4 starter profile with some upside.
4-108: RHP Dylan Ray, Alabama. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $565,800. Signing bonus: $565,800.
When the draft was moved back from June to July, it allowed players to get in extra reps in the Cape Cod League and created a new definition for "late riser." Dylan Ray falls into this group, with his helium coming so late in the game that he went unranked on MLB Pipeline's top 250 and Baseball America's top 500, while coming in at #259 on Prospects Live, but signed for full slot value at #108. Ray got hurt and didn't pitch as a freshman, then as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2022 due to an extremely early birthday, he put up a 4.60 ERA and a 49/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings out of the Alabama bullpen. It was very solid if unspectacular, but he went to the Cape and promptly put up a 1.63 ERA and a 17/2 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven innings, opening eyes. Ray sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 98, coming in with plenty of riding life from an over the top delivery. He spins a pretty nasty curveball with depth and a harder slider when he locates them, but he struggles to command those breaking balls and often leaves them up, where they flatten out. There's a changeup in there too, but again, it's behind. The 6'3" righty has the frame and delivery to start, but needs to get much more consistent with his secondary stuff in order to do so. He's pretty young, having only turned 21 in May, and doesn't have much game experience on the mound. It's a pretty safe bet that the fastball and breaking balls would be nasty in a bullpen role, like they were on the Cape, but I have to believe that if the Diamondbacks are going to give him more than $500,000 to sign, they'll at least want to try out the Huntsville-area native in the rotation. So far in that role, he has a 6.30 ERA and a 14/3 strikeout to walk ratio over ten innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Visalia.
5-138: SS Andrew Pintar, Brigham Young. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $422,600. Signing bonus: $316,950 ($105,650 below slot value).
Andrew Pintar hit .333/.433/.556 as a sophomore at BYU and entered the spring as one of the more interesting prospects in the Rocky Mountain region, but his 2022 wound up being a nightmare. He hit just .209/.329/.284 with no home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 17 games, then went down with a shoulder injury that wiped out the rest of his season. The strikeout rate ballooned from 12.8% as a sophomore to 21.5% as a junior while his walk rate dropped from 14.2% to 10.1% and he hit for zero power. If the Diamondbacks are giving him more than $300,000 to sign, it's because they believe his struggles could almost entirely be attributed to that shoulder injury and that the 2021 Andrew Pintar is the real Andrew Pintar. That version of him made a ton of contact all over the zone, spraying line drives around the field consistently while turning some into home runs when they caught enough air. The power has always been fringy, but with his wiry 6'2" frame and quick right handed bat, he does have the ability to turn on the ball and put it in the seats. Arizona will want to get the Spanish Fork, Utah native healthy again and back to feeling like himself, where they could get a high average, moderate power bat lower in the draft than you'd expect. They drafted Pintar as a shortstop, but he had fringy arm strength before the shoulder injury and almost certainly projects better at second base, where he won't be as stretched.
6-168: LHP Will Mabrey, Tennessee. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $317,100. Signing bonus: $225,000 ($92,100 below slot value).
On a pitching staff full of pitchers that could reach triple digits, Will Mabrey offered a literal change of pace in the Tennessee bullpen. After barely pitching as an underclassman, he became one of the Volunteers' most reliable relievers with a 2.63 ERA and a 52/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 innings this spring. Mabrey's stuff isn't overpowering, with a low 90's fastball that tops out around 95, an above average slider that plays well off his fastball, and a less used curveball and changeup. Not overly physical at 6', 185 pounds, the lefty hides the ball well and comes in with flat plane, making it difficult to pick up his stuff. Additionally, he commands everything with precision, making this a very unconventional profile for a college reliever, a demographic that typically throw poorly-located gas if they're going to get drafted. To succeed in pro ball, the Cookeville, Tennessee native will need to add a tick or two to his fastball, which combined with the life, deception, and command he possesses, could make it a very tough pitch to handle. If he does see his stuff tick up in pro ball, he could move quickly to the Arizona bullpen.
7-198: SS Demetrio Crisantes, Nogales HS [AZ]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $247,200. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($177,800 above slot value).
First off, what a name. Second off, Demetrio Crisantes brings the Diamondbacks a hometown player to throw into the system. He attended Nogales High School on the Mexican border, and grew up a few exits north on I-19 in Rio Rico. Crisantes had been committed to play college ball at Arizona, but the Diamondbacks were able to pull him to Phoenix rather than Tucson for a sizable over slot bonus. He wasn't on my radar prior to the draft, but now having done some research, I'm bought in. He is extremely fluid in the box with a whippy, powerful right handed swing that naturally channels his strength into useable power, with great feel for the barrel that helps him drive balls all around the park. Crisantes does need to get stronger in order to maximize that power, though at a skinny six feet tall, it's not an ultra projectable frame. Still, there is enough room in there to add a tick or two, which will go a long way given the way he moves in the box. Additionally, he is extremely disciplined at the plate and Baseball America noted that he walked 32 times to just three strikeouts this spring, showcasing not only his barrel to ball skills but his pure bat to ball skills as well. At shortstop, he's springy and fluid again with enough arm strength to stick, though he'll need to quicken his transfer and arm stroke in order to stay there as he does have a tendency to gather himself and shuffle before he throws. To top it off, Crisantes is extremely young for a high school senior and will only turn 18 a few days after I publish this article. There is a ton of ceiling here for the desert kid and the Diamondbacks do very well with this type of player.
11-318: LHP Spencer Giesting, Charlotte. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($275,000 against bonus pool).
Spencer Giesting gives the Diamondbacks a bit of an under the radar arm, though he did command a pretty hefty fifth round-caliber bonus as a draft eligible sophomore. After a solid freshman season as a swingman, he put up a 3.72 ERA and a 105/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 innings as a sophomore this spring to build off some moderate Cape Cod League success. Giesting sits in the low 90's with his fastball but has been up to 96, with flat plane and a ton of riding life that help it play above its velocity. He shows feel to spin a breaking ball with a hard slider and a solid curveball and mixes in a changeup as well. At 6'4" with a good body and athletic movement on the mound, as well as having just turned 21 shortly before the draft, he offers plenty of projection now in the Arizona development system. They'll want to help him add a tick or two to his fastball so that it can make the most of its riding life, but the main priority right now should be his below average command. Sticking in the rotation will likely require an improvement both in his fastball velocity and command, which is entirely possible, while a move to the bullpen will likely be in order if he can't get that done. Regardless, his fastball could sit closer to the mid 90's in shorter stints and get that extra bump to help the riding fastball really play. So far, he has a 7.45 ERA and a 9/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Visalia.
12-348: RHP Malachi Witherspoon, Flagler HS [FL]. My rank: #167.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Malachi Witherspoon won't be heading to the desert and will instead stay home to attend Jacksonville, alma mater of Daniel Murphy and Austin Hays. Witherspoon has plenty of relievery traits right now, but there is also tremendous raw ability from a kid who only turned 18 in August. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 94-95, with big spin rates that give the pitch some life. He can really rip through his curveball, again with huge spin rates and hard depth and bite that make it a potential plus pitch. Witherspoon's changeup also flashes above average at its best, giving him a really dangerous arsenal at a really young age. The 6'3" righty is a very strong kid and only projects to get stronger, making it a profile to dream on. For now, his offspeed stuff can be very inconsistent as he's still learning how to harness it effectively, and with a drop and drive delivery that features some head whack and a late arm, he comes with significant reliever risk. The definition of a boom or bust profile, I'll be very interested to see what happens at Jacksonville over the next few years.
18-528: SS Aiva Arquette, Saint Louis HS [HI]. My rank: #194.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Aiva Arquette also did not sign, so he will attend Washington to build his stock. He lacks a carrying tool to this point, which may have tampered his interest out of high school, but does a lot of things well and building up a track record in Seattle will help his profile significantly. Arquette is very projectable at 6'4" and looks like a ballplayer, portending to future added strength on top of a pretty athletic frame as it is. He makes a lot of contact from the right side and can handle pitches all over the plate, though when he tries to swing for power, his swing can get a bit rigid and lead to minor swing and miss concerns. The Washington coaching staff is going to want to help him get stronger and access his power more naturally, which would be huge for his offensive projection. For now, the Hawaiian plays shortstop and should stick there in Seattle with smooth glovework and enough range and arm strength to be playable. He's not all that explosive, though, and may fit better at third base in the long run if he slows down at all with age.
19-558: OF Gavin Turley, Hamilton HS [AZ]. My rank: #69.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Gavin Turley originally hails from Midway, Utah, a small town across the Wasatch Range from Salt Lake City, but he moved south to Arizona around the time his brother, Noah, started play at Yavapai JC in Prescott, Arizona. While Noah eventually transferred to the University of Arizona, Gavin played his high school ball for the powerhouse Hamilton High School program in Chandler in the far southwestern Phoenix suburbs. Instead of staying to play for his new hometown team, he'll head back up north to Oregon State and hope to follow a Dylan Crews-like path to stardom. Turley is one of the best athletes in the class, with plus-plus speed that makes him a menace on the bases. Not only that, but quick hands and loose, powerful right handed swing can generate huge exit velocities for plus raw power, and he knows it. The approach at the plate is very raw right now, as he tends to sell out for power causing his swing to get too big, which combined with aggressive pitch selection is often too much for his fringy bat to ball skills to overcome. In Corvallis, Turley will need to learn to trust his incredible raw ability and let the home runs come naturally, in which case he could easily emerge a first round pick in 2025. He's raw on the defensive side as well, with fringy instincts leading to a potential career in right field despite his blazing speed. Throw in a plus arm, and he'll fit in very well there.
20-588: RHP Riley Kelly, Tustin HS [CA]. My rank: #88.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
The Diamondbacks closed out the draft with one more name that didn't sign, as Riley Kelly will instead stay home in Orange County and head to UC Irvine. Kelly was a pop up name this spring when his stuff ticked up, and it will likely continue to improve in Irvine. His fastball sits around 90, topping out around 94 with some ride, and more velocity is coming. His potentially plus-plus curveball is by far his best pitch, with massive depth and bite that can be sharpened if he wants something tighter. Lastly, his changeup is a bit behind. The 6'4" righty is very projectable with plenty of room to fill out, and the UC Irvine coaching staff will have the opportunity to smooth out his mechanics as well to help him better channel his strength. He'll need to add more power to his arsenal and bring that changeup along if he wants to start, and his command could use a little tuneup as well. There is a lot to work on, but I like his chances to get it done.
