2022 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

I really like what the Reds did here. They had a ton of draft capital with five of the first 94 picks, and they used it. They didn't expect top ten talent Cam Collier to fall into their lap at pick #18, so they changed their entire draft strategy to make it work. After signing Collier for well over a million dollars above slot value, they went below slot value for each of the next eleven picks to make up for it, and also counted each many picks' $2,500 signing contingency bonus (which comes in addition to the draft bonus and does not count against the pool) as part of the bonus, saving a few extra pennies here and there. They drafted some very interesting bats early on (though I thought Justin Boyd was the one questionable pick here), then went for stuff above all else with picks like Bryce Hubbart, Kenya Huggins, Zach Maxwell, and Ben Brutti. They actually spent much of the latter portion of the draft on arms, drafting twelve pitchers with their final thirteen picks, with the lone position player in that range, Mason Neville, not even signing.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-18: 3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC. My rank: #6.
Slot value: $3.66 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($1.34 million above slot value).
If you told Reds general manager Nick Krall in April that he would be getting Cam Collier in the first round, he would likely have been happy to hear that. If you told him the day before the draft that he would be getting Collier, he would have probably laughed in your face, as multiple teams throughout the top ten picks were rumored to be very in on the young hitter. As it went, those clubs went different directions, and soon signability pushed him to the Reds with the 18th pick. They gave him roughly the slot value for the tenth overall pick, more than a million above their own slot value, to sign him away from a Louisville commitment. So who is this kid that Cincinnati was happy to upend its draft strategy over? Cam Collier was actually supposed to be a junior in high school, but he earned his GED and graduated not one, but two years early from Mount Paran Christian Academy in the Atlanta area to attend Chipola Junior College, much like Bryce Harper more than a decade earlier. Despite being just 17 years old and facing kids who were mostly 19-21 years old, Collier more than held his own by slashing .333/.419/.537 with eight home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He then went to the Cape Cod League and further impressed evaluators by looking right at home against the best 19-21 year olds in the country. This is all because, year of age for year of age, he is probably the most advanced amateur hitter in the country. He takes extremely professional at bats, controlling the strike zone with ease against much older pitching with excellent pitch recognition and feel for the barrel. Collier shows off above average raw power from the left side of the plate, a product of a sturdy, mature 6'2" frame and a sweet, loose, simple swing. He finds the barrel very consistently and sprays deep line drives to all fields, and in pro ball could profile for 20-25 home runs a year with on-base percentages approaching .400. While he probably won't win any Gold Gloves, he is a very capable defender at third base with solid actions around the bag and enough arm strength to stick there. The Reds of course are buying the bat, and if anybody in this class could reach the majors as a teenager, it will probably be Collier. Teenager in this case gives him until the end of the 2024 season, so he would have 2023-2024 to rise through the ranks and make it happen.

1C-32: 3B Sal Stewart, Westminster Christian HS [FL]. My rank: #65.
Slot value: $2.37 million. Signing bonus: $2.1 million ($275,500 below slot value).
Sal Stewart was rumored to be one of the toughest signs in the draft with an extremely firm commitment to Vanderbilt in his pocket, and it took the Reds drafting him about a full round ahead of where he was projected to stop that from happening. If you want a comp, then you'll really like this one if you follow college baseball: Tommy White. Last year, it seems like evaluators (myself included) slept on White a little bit out at IMG Academy because he was a right handed hitting likely first baseman with body concerns, and he made us all regret it by blasting 27 home runs as a true freshman this year. The Reds front office likely saw what White was doing in Raleigh, looked at Stewart, and said "nah, we're not letting that happen again." Also a bigger bodied right handed hitting high school first baseman, Stewart has a similarly impressive track record of hitting and could give the Reds a true middle of the order bat. He's a very disciplined hitter that has been seen a lot on the showcase circuit and has performed well throughout, but he stands out for his plus raw power from a compact uppercut. He's big and strong at a listed 6'3", 215 pounds, and he should only get stronger as he matures. At this point, he's such a natural hitter that he can get away with letting his mechanics get out of whack, and he's strong enough to still do damage even when he's lunging forward or losing the connection between his upper and lower body. That should be a relatively easy fix for the player development program, and Stewart ultimately has a chance to club 30+ home runs a year with good on-base percentages if everything breaks right. Drafted as a third baseman, the Miami native will likely move to first base in pro ball with clunky actions around the bag and below average speed. If you want another comp, Pete Alonso makes sense as well.

2-55: C Logan Tanner, Mississippi State. My rank: #73.
Slot value: $1.37 million. Signing bonus: $1.03 million ($346,500 below slot value).
The Reds draft catchers like clockwork, and Logan Tanner makes it eight drafts in a row where they took one in the first seven rounds going back to Tyler Stephenson in 2015. Tanner was right up there with Kevin Parada and Daniel Susac at the top of a deep college catching class heading into the spring, and even though a disappointing season (.285/.387/.425, 7 HR, 45/32 K/BB in 55 games) dropped him out of the first round, there is still a lot to like. The southern Mississippi native is one of the best defensive catchers in the country, showing great agility back there that helps him block baseballs well, but he stands out most for his arm. It's a plus-plus cannon that not only nabs base stealers on the routine throws, but also works from multiple angles a lot like Patrick Mahomes. Check out this throw from Mississippi State's 2021 National Championship run. Usually, you're going to have to settle for a light hitter if you want defense like that, but Tanner can swing it. He takes very good at bats, with a simple right handed swing that produces high exit velocities and potentially above average power. However, his bat to ball skills are a bit behind his pitch recognition and he doesn't have great feel for the barrel just yet, which led to an overall lack of impact in 2022, but because he understands the strike zone well he should recover quickly with some pro coaching. Overall, he probably projects for 15-20 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages and great defense at best, a starter's profile if he gets back to his 2021 form.

CBB-73: OF Justin Boyd, Oregon State. My rank: #210.
Slot value: $901,300. Signing bonus: $847,500 ($53,800 below slot value).
The Reds saved a little more money on Justin Boyd, a pick somewhat reminiscent of Justice Thompson a year ago. Boyd did not play in the shortened 2020 season then showed well in a part time role in 2021 before breaking out in 2022, slashing .373/.490/.577 with nine home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 58/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. An on-base machine, he is one of the more patient hitters in this class and draws a ton of walks. Those deep counts do lead to some strikeout concerns, as he has just average bat to ball skills, but it's nothing egregious. He's mostly a gap to gap hitter, drilling balls to all fields and letting his plus speed do the work, and while he can turn on one for a home run here and there, I don't expect more than 10-15 home runs per season here at peak. The Denver-area product can play all three outfield positions well with his speed and a good arm, to me giving this a very solid fourth outfield profile with a chance for more if he can tap some power while keeping his strikeouts down.

3-94: LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State. My rank: #64.
Slot value: $649,900. Signing bonus: $522,500 ($127,400 below slot value).
I really like this pick for the Reds, and I think it could turn out to provide the best value of their whole draft. Bryce Hubbart threw well as a sophomore at Florida State in 2021 but broke out in the Cape Cod League last summer, where he posted a 0.87 ERA and a 45/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 innings. Those Cape numbers become even more impressive when you find out that all three earned runs that Hubbart allowed came one one swing, a three run Braylen Wimmer (Phillies, 18th round) home run in the third inning of his very first start – from there, he closed out the season with 28.2 consecutive shutout innings (aside from one unearned run). His 2022 was a bit more up and down, beginning with dominant outings against James Madison, Samford, and California and ultimately ending up with a 3.32 ERA and a 96/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings. Hubbart really interests me as a pitcher. His fastball velocity fluctuates, getting as high as the mid 90's on the Cape but also dipping into the upper 80's at times with Florida State, typically settling in the 90-92 range. The pitch plays like an invisiball, though, with sneaky riding action that misses bats and confounds hitters. That means even when he's 89-91, he can get consistent outs against advanced hitters, and when he's more 92-94, he dominates the elite like we saw on the Cape. He throws both a curveball and a newer slider, both of which flashed plus on the Cape, but they're both inconsistent and he prefers to pitch off his fastball. Hubbart rounds out his arsenal with an average changeup. He has a very skinny 6'1" frame and an uptempo delivery, but to this point he has shown that he can hold up just fine in the rotation. In order to take the mound every fifth day in the big leagues, he'll have to get more consistent with both his velocity and his offspeed stuff, and while his command has steadily improved, it's still fringe-average and will need some fine tuning in pro ball. The Orlando-area native really understands the analytical side of pitching and will take well to the Reds' player development program, and with a June birthday, he's on the younger side for a college junior. I think the ceiling is huge here if the Reds can get him back to where he was on the Cape, when he looked like an easy first round pick.

4-123: RHP Kenya Huggins, Chipola JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $488,300. Signing bonus: $407,500 ($80,800 below slot value).
The Reds picked up a power arm in the fourth round, getting Cam Collier's Chipola teammate Kenya Huggins. Huggins earned some draft interest a year ago out of high school in New Orleans, but went the JuCo route and showed well as a freshman in Marianna, posting a 2.96 ERA and a 97/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to around 96, but the pitch can play a bit straight and stands out more for its velocity than its movement. His best pitch is a mid to upper 80's power slider with late bite ,getting ugly swings and misses especially when he locates it down and away to right handed hitters. There's also a changeup here, and while it needs more refinement, he gets some fade on it and he's just 19. The 6'3" righty is big and physical and will only get stronger, though he carries some relief risk because he doesn't always stay on line in his delivery and has fringy command for now. Huggins will want to iron that out in pro ball while also refining his changeup if he wants to start, and if he can find a way to increase the life on his fastball, he could be a very good one. Otherwise, the fastball/slider combination should play out of the bullpen.

5-153: C Cade Hunter, Virginia Tech. My rank: #79.
Slot value: $364,600. Signing bonus: $362,100 ($2,500 below slot value).
Like I said, the Reds love college catchers who perform in power conferences, so Cade Hunter will join Logan Tanner, Matheu Nelson (Florida State), and Chris Okey (Clemson) as early round picks in the system. Hunter played just 29 games combined in 2020 and 2021 and had just 17 career hits coming into the season, but he was one of the country's better breakout bats in 2022 with a .330/.440/.637 slash line, 17 home runs, and a 59/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games for the surprising Hokies. While Tanner is probably glove-first at this point, Hunter is definitely bat-first, with massive raw power from the left side that produces huge exit velocities. He gets great separation in his swing, throwing the hips while leaving his hands back and creating a rubber band effect to consistently drive the ball with force. The hit tool is a bit behind at this point, as he struggles with breaking stuff to a somewhat concerning level, but he does hammer fastballs at any velocity. He also looked just a little bit lost later on in the season and struck out four times in Virginia Tech's season-ending loss to Oklahoma in the Blacksburg Super Regional (though to be fair, that was a major step in Cade Horton's coming out party, which you'll read about in the Cubs review). Behind the plate, the Philadelphia-area native is extremely athletic and can pop out of the crouch and run with the best of backstops, but his glovework and arm strength are more average and will need some refinement in pro ball. The potential onset of robo umps does help that profile a bit. Overall, I see a potential everyday catcher that can hammer 25+ home runs a year, but he will have to figure something out against quality breaking balls in order to reach that ceiling.

6-183: RHP Zach Maxwell, Georgia Tech. My rank: #103.
Slot value: $279,700. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($77,200 below slot value).
If you like Joe Boyle, who is looking unhittable at High A Dayton right now, then you're going to love Zach Maxwell. Maxwell is a huge, 6'6", 275 pound beast of a man, and he's slowly pulling it together on the mound. After walking 23.9% of his opponents as a freshman in 2020 and 25.6% in 2021, he cut that walk rate to 17.3% in 2022 and that helped him post a 5.26 ERA and an 84/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings this year in a swingman role. The Atlanta-area product sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, touching triple digits with serious life. The pitch has extreme vertical axis and rides a ton, making it jump on hitters even quicker than the already impressive radar gun readings would tell you. His slider is downright ghoulish, with massive spin rates and devastating late bite that makes it one of the best breaking balls in the class. Those two pitches are kind of it for now, as Maxwell doesn't have much of a changeup and he doesn't really need it. Command is obviously the big question, as even though it improved in 2022, it's still well below average as the big guy doesn't always repeat his delivery well and struggles to harness his explosive stuff. He made a few starts this year and actually showed very well in a few of them, but unless he can take massive steps forward with his command and changeup, it's a pure relief profile and I think the Reds will be okay with that. With all of Joe Boyle's success so far, they have a pretty good blueprint for development.

7-213: SS Trey Faltine, Texas. My rank: #202.
Slot value: $219,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($19,000 below slot value).
Trey Faltine earned some top 100 draft interest as a two-way player in high school, but made it to campus at Texas and has been exclusively a position player. He had a breakout year in 2022, slashing .282/.393/.552 with 15 home runs and a 104/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, but those 104 strikeouts were second in college baseball only to Oklahoma State's Nolan McLean at 107. Faltine has an explosive swing from the right side that is capable of producing high exit velocities and above average raw power, but he may have gotten too power conscious in 2022 and that led to an ugly 35.6% strikeout rate. He's a bit passive at the plate and struggled in Big 12 play, so the hit tool is very much in question as he enters pro ball and he'll likely need to trade some power to make enough contact. The Houston-area product is a very good defender at shortstop, with slick actions, good range, and a plus arm that sat around 90 when he pitched in high school. That alone should buy the bat plenty of slack, and given his ability to pummel the baseball, there is some upside. But the swing and miss is very alarming.

11-333: RHP Ben Brutti, South Kingstown HS [RI]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $405,000 ($280,000 against bonus pool).
The Reds only went above slot value once after Cam Collier, but they just could not resist the live armed Ben Brutti. He had very limited track record entering 2022, but exploded onto the scene with a loud spring that sent scouts flocking to southern Rhode Island to see him pitch. Brutti's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96 with hard running and sinking action from a very low three quarters slot. His slider is equally devastating when it's on, showing sharp, late sweeping action in the opposite direction of his fastball, though it's not as consistent. He also throws a solid changeup that plays well off his fastball, but he hasn't needed it so far. The profile is a bit relievery, as Brutti throws with considerable effort, emphasized by sharp stabbing action in the back of his arm stroke and an explosive stride down the mound. The 6'3" righty has to get a little more consistent with his command in addition to his offspeed stuff if he wants to start long term, and he's also extremely old for a high school senior having turned 19 in May. Still, I see a potential impact reliever that could close games if it all breaks right. He had been committed to South Florida.

12-363: RHP Mason Pelio, Boston College. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Mason Pelio is unfortunately an example of a pitcher who has developed in the wrong direction. He was a standout as part of Boston College's rotation as a freshman in 2019, when he posted a 3.62 ERA over thirteen starts, and heading into the 2021 draft cycle he was considered second to third round pick (though I was never that high on him). Unfortunately, his command disappeared that year and he finished with a 6.65 ERA over fourteen starts, so he returned to Chestnut Hill to give it one more go. That did not work out, and he lost innings throughout the year as he finished with a 9.16 ERA and a 21/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.2 innings. Pelio has been into the upper 90's at times, but typically sits in the low 90's with cutting action while flipping over a fringy slider and an above average changeup. He's a big guy at a listed 6'3", 230 pounds, but he's seen his command move backwards from average to fringy to well below average now, causing all of his stuff to play down. Even when he had close to average command, I wanted to see him sharpen up his slider before I fully bought in, which he hasn't done. The San Diego-area native represents a reclamation project for Cincinnati, but the building blocks are there. He has that big strong frame, a ton of arm strength, and an advanced changeup, and he just needs to be put back together. If a change of scenery is just what the doctor ordered, I wouldn't close the book just yet on him becoming a back-end starter.

18-543: OF Mason Neville, Basic HS [NV]. My rank: #133.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
The Reds took a shot at Mason Neville in the 18th round but ultimately could not keep him away from an Arkansas commitment. Neville is a great athlete that shows off a variety of tools, albeit in need of some refinement that he'll get in Fayetteville. His loose left handed swing produces power to all fields when he connects, and at a projectable 6'3", he should grow into even more power in time. He makes good contact but it often comes at the expense of his power, as Neville will often throw the bat head at the ball in order to make contact if he doesn't recognize the pitch right away. The Las Vegas native has big upside at the plate if he can learn himself a bit more as a hitter, and I'll be interested to see how the Arkansas coaching staff goes about that. He's also a plus runner that can play center field, adding to his value.

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the SEC

2021 draftees: 68. Top school: Arkansas (9)
2021 preseason writeup (published 11/7/2020)

Top draftees:
1-2, Rangers: RHP Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt)
1-10, Mets: RHP Kumar Rocker (Vanderbilt)
1-14, Giants: RHP Will Bednar (Mississippi State)
1-19, Blue Jays: RHP Gunnar Hoglund (Mississippi)
2-40, Red Sox: OF Jud Fabian (Florida)
2-42, Diamondbacks: SS Ryan Bliss (Auburn)
2-44, Rockies: RHP Jaden Hill (Louisiana State)

Beyond hosting both College World Series final teams in Mississippi State, the SEC continued to show why it is college baseball's premier conference in 2021 by leading the way with 68 players drafted. Every team in the league had multiple players selected while five different schools saw at least seven players go in the draft. Meanwhile, Arkansas tied with Texas Tech for the second most players drafted of any individual school with nine, behind only UCLA's ten.

The SEC has always been known for premier pitching, with Vanderbilt righty Jack Leiter earning the largest signing bonus of any player in the draft and four pitchers going in the top nineteen picks a year ago. In 2022, however, the pendulum looks to have swung slightly to the position player side, with a deluge of big bats all jostling for position in the first round. By my count, I see about twelve players who are in a very good position to go in the first round, and while of course that won't be the case come July, it bodes well for the conference's chances of matching or bettering last year's mark of four first round draftees. The depth here is really impressive, and beyond the top couple of names, I really feel bad ranking any of these players outside of the top five and I see very little separation between the top and bottom of the list, which I extended to twelve after doing ten for the other conferences. One interesting trend I noticed was size, as the twelve players on the list average less than 6'1" in height and Hunter Barco (6'4"), the last player on the list, is the only one above 6'2". Not typical for a conference like this one.

1. 3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6', 210 lbs. Born 5/5/2001. Hometown: Queen Creek, AZ.
2021: 17 HR, .352/.439/.676, 2 SB, 58/33 K/BB in 63 games.
LSU made a huge splash by hiring away Arizona head coach Jay Johnson this summer, and that move paid immediate dividends when all-everything slugger Jacob Berry decided to follow his coach across the country on Interstate 10. As a true freshman last spring (albeit the age of a sophomore), he was one of the best hitters in the entire country and served as the centerpiece to arguably college baseball's best lineup, slugging the Wildcats to their first College World Series appearance since 2016. He then cranked it up another notch with the US Collegiate National Team, slashing .387/.475/.871 with four home runs in eleven games against arguably the best amateur competition in the country. Berry may only be six feet tall, on the shorter side for a slugger, but he packs as much strength into that smaller frame as you could possibly expect. He trusts that strength and utilizes a simple, direct swing from both sides of the plate to tap into easy plus raw power very consistently in games, never having to sell out or swing out of his shoes to get there. The Phoenix-area product is a patient hitter that draws his walks and keeps his strikeouts to a reasonable level, and he's completely unfazed by high-end velocity and offspeed stuff. There is no doubt that Berry will handle the slight jump in competition from the Pac-12 to the SEC, and very few have any concerns about his ability to continue to produce at a high level immediately in pro ball once he's drafted. The bat will be the carrying tool, because he's a below average defender at third base with a choppy glove that may end up having to move to first base. He'll have plenty of bat to profile at first, but as a decent athlete with better mobility than you'd expect for his frame, a team may be able to run him out at the hot corner if they're patient and prioritize development in that part of his game. Regardless, offensive production is what earns the big bucks and he has it in spades, and between Berry (.352/.439/.676, 17 HR), Dylan Crews (.362/.453/.663, 18 HR), Cade Doughty (.308/.368/.546, 13 HR), Gavin Dugas (.295/.407/.641, 19 HR), and Tre' Morgan (.357/.441/.526, 6 HR), you'll be hard pressed to find a more intimidating lineup in 2022 than the one in Baton Rouge.

2. SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6', 180 lbs. Born 1/24/2001. Hometown: Selah, WA.
2021: 16 HR, .252/.341/.559, 9 SB, 84/31 K/BB in 61 games.
Jacob Berry has been a more consistent hitter to this point in his career, so I have him as the number one prospect in the conference, but Carter Young has the higher ceiling and probably a better chance to break through and earn a number one overall selection. An immediate contributor in his shortened freshman season in 2020 (.328/.373/.377), he carried that success over into the 2021 season and was one of the SEC's more dynamic players for much of the season, but he injured his shoulder in May and when he returned a few weeks later, he didn't look like the same player. The post-injury slump hurt his overall numbers and he finished with over a 30% strikeout rate, but after taking the summer off to rest and heal, his proponents expect huge things in 2022. Young, like Berry, is a switch hitter with power from both sides of the plate, taking healthy, uppercut hacks that really help him channel his lean strength into useable game power. The swing can get big at times, but when he's going right he's an extremely tough out that is equally willing to take you deep or slap a line drive the other way. There has always been swing and miss in his game, an issue exacerbated by the injury, but the hope is that a healthy 2022 combined with another year of development can help get that under control. On the flip side, the Washington state product is an above average defender who will definitely stick at shortstop, with a plus arm and plenty of range to positively impact the game with his glove. Teams love up the middle athletes early in the draft, and Vanderbilt is no stranger to producing that kind of talent between shortstop Dansby Swanson (first overall, 2015) and utility man Austin Martin (fifth overall, 2020). Young is a better defender than Martin and has more power than both, so how high he goes in 2022 ultimately hinges on the consistency of his hit tool.

3. RHP Peyton Pallette, Arkansas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 175 lbs. Born 5/9/2001. Hometown: Benton, AR.
2021: 1-2, 4.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 67/20 K/BB in 56 innings.
The first time I heard Peyton Pallette's name was a roller coaster day and I wrote about it here. Having no idea who he was, I watched him start off an extremely experienced and disciplined top of the Texas lineup six up, six down for two innings, never throwing a fastball under 95 and striking out the last two (Big 12 #6 prospect Trey Faltine and 2021 #196 overall prospect Ivan Melendez) on six consecutive fastballs. The dude just blew me away. After that sensational season opening start, he went on to have some ups and downs including rough starts against Alabama (1 IP, 4 ER) and Ole Miss (4 IP, 7 ER), but he showed enough to stand firm as the top pitching prospect in the best conference in baseball. Pallette sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, tops out around 97, and gets tremendous ride on the pitch that just seems to explode onto hitters. He adds a plus-plus curveball with elite spin rates that looks to be one of the best breaking balls in the entire class, just crashing down on hitters as if it was spiked like a volleyball. To this point, the Little Rock-area native doesn't use his changeup as much and it's a below average pitch, so that will certainly be a point of development in 2022 and beyond. Despite standing a skinny 6'1", he's a strong kid that holds his velocity deep into starts through a low effort delivery, portending to a safe bet future in the rotation. Pallette often shows above average command but can get hit when he falls behind in the count or grooves one over the plate, so just a bit more consistency in that regard will be another thing to work on if he wants to be the first pitcher off the board on draft day. Relatively young for the class with a May birthday and younger than true sophomore Jacob Berry, there's as much talent in his right arm as anyone in college baseball and he looks the part of a high ceiling ace with some minor smoothing out of the edges in his game. The fastball/curveball combination is elite and the arm strength, body control, and athleticism are there, so the focus just needs to turn to his changeup and avoiding those lapses in command.

4. C Hayden Dunhurst, Mississippi.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 5'11", 220 lbs. Born 9/19/2000. Hometown: Carriere, MS.
2021: 7 HR, .280/.385/.435, 3 SB, 44/32 K/BB in 65 games.
Hayden Dunhurst hasn't quite put it all together yet, but strong defensive catchers who can produce in power conferences are always in demand and he firmly fits that profile. One of the top recruits nationally to reach campus from the 2019 high school ranks, Dunhurst has seen his game translate much more smoothly to the SEC than many anticipated and he now finds himself in the conversation as one of the top catchers in a loaded college class along with Mississippi State's Logan Tanner, Arizona's Daniel Susac, and Georgia Tech's Kevin Parada. He may be a bit undersized for a power hitter at 5'11", but like Jacob Berry he packs a ton of strength into that shorter frame and shows plus raw power from both sides of the plate. To this point, it hasn't shown up in games as much because he has mostly focused on making contact and hitting for average, opting to use the whole field and look for line drives rather than turn on and lift balls out of the park. Some would like to see the southern Mississippi product accept more swing and miss into his game to allow the power to play up, but regardless he has plenty of bat to profile as a starting catcher in the big leagues. Dunhurst really shines on defense, where his cannon arm ranks among the best in college baseball and can completely shut down the running game. While that plus-plus arm is his calling card, he's also come along very nicely with his glovework and figures to be an above average defender in that regard with a little more work, making the whole defensive package extremely enticing. Usually you have take a "glove-first" catcher to get that kind of defense and just hope his bat comes along, but Dunhurst has the bat. He can take it a step further by putting it all together in 2022 and tapping that power without letting his strikeout rate creep up too much, and if he can, he may be able to push to the front of the college catching pack.

5. C Logan Tanner, Mississippi State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 215 lbs. Born 11/10/2000. Hometown: Lucedale, MS.
2021: 15 HR, .287/.382/.525, 0 SB, 48/39 K/BB in 67 games.
Hayden Dunhurst and Logan Tanner have very similar profiles and are very close on this list, but I ultimately decided to put Dunhurst first because he's a switch hitter, his tools are a touch louder, and Tanner could not take advantage of Dunhurst's slower College National Team run (.160/.267/.160) as he struggled in his own right (.182/.217/.318). Tanner, also a southern Mississippi native who grew up a couple counties over from Dunhurst, was not as highly rated a recruit but was fantastic for Mississippi State in its run to the College World Series championship. He's a very well-rounded hitter that shows above average power from a compact right handed swing, effectively deploying the strength in his sturdy frame into usable game power. His patient, mature approach at the plate helps him tap that power consistently against good pitching, though his pure bat to ball skills are more average and he can sometimes get himself into trouble in deep counts. Behind the plate, he's an extremely good athlete that figures to be a plus defender, showing plenty of agility back there that is apparent to any observer. His plus arm plays up even further due to that agility, with the ability to throw from multiple angles as evidenced by this great throw against Ole Miss. With above average power that he taps in games, a strong enough approach to work in pro ball and make up for any deficiencies in his pure contact ability, and strong defense at a premium position, there are very few weaknesses in this profile and Tanner has a chance to work his way up as a starting catcher.

6. RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 1/3/2001. Hometown: Cumming, GA.
2021: 5-0, 1.44 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 100/15 K/BB in 56.1 innings.
I will usually be the low man on college relievers. Their track record is as poor as any demographic in the draft, as they're already often performing at maximum capacity and don't get that "bump" in stuff that college starters do in shifting to relief work in pro ball. That said, Landon Sims is different. Despite facing extremely tough competition in 2021, he still struck out 46.9% of his opponents with an elite fastball/slider combination that very few hitters have solved to this point. Sims sits in the mid 90's and will regularly touch 97 without exerting himself, and the pitch plays up further because he gets tremendous riding life that makes it appear to catch another gear halfway to the plate. If you want the dictionary definition of an "explosive" fastball, here's what it looks like from behind the plate. On top of that plus-plus pitch, we have another one in the slider. Sims' slider has devastating late bite, just diving into oblivion at the last possible second and leaving hitters looking silly like this. On top of having two plus-plus pitches, he shows above average command that really helps the two pitches play off each other, something you very rarely see from an amateur pitcher with that kind of stuff. He served as the closer in 2021, often pitching two or three innings at a time, but not because he lacks the ability to start. Mississippi State's staff was absolutely loaded and Sims' mentality on the mound fits perfectly in a closer's role, as he's a fire breathing competitor that will make damn sure you see nothing but his very best from start to finish. He lives for the big stage and relishes in high pressure situations, so he'll for sure be able to handle the bright lights of even MLB's larger markets. So why #6? First, the five players ahead of him project as a middle of the order slugger, an all-around catalyst, an ace, and back to back starting catchers, so that's all elite talent and nothing to be ashamed of falling behind. Second is the reliever thing, and you can see the track record in this tweet. When a starter converts to relieving in pro ball, his stuff takes a natural jump as he goes from throwing six or seven innings at a time to just one or two, but a college reliever doesn't get that bump. I really want to see how Sims' stuff holds up in a starting role in 2022 before feeling comfortable with him as a first round pick, especially as it pertains to holding velocity (he's usually about 93-95, T97 in relief) and keeping that devastating late snap on his slider. We also haven't seen much of a changeup because he really hasn't needed it. There's no reason not to think he can make that jump to starting, especially given his efficient delivery, ridiculous arm strength, strong command, and overall competitiveness on the mound, so he still ranks among the best in the SEC and therefore the best in college baseball. We'll just have to wait and see.

7. 3B Cade Doughty, Louisiana State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 3/26/2001. Hometown: Denham Springs, LA.
2021: 13 HR, .308/.368/.546, 1 SB, 32/22 K/BB in 58 games.
Cade Doughty does not have the loudest tools in the SEC, and certainly does not compare favorably to the other names on this impressive list when it comes to power, speed, or overall athleticism. However, the kid is somewhat reminiscent of another former LSU Tiger, Daniel Cabrera, in that he can just flat out play baseball. I actually like Doughty significantly more than I liked Cabrera, and I (like many others) am enamored enough with his natural feel for the game to rank him high on this list. Doughty was a highly regarded recruit coming out of the Baton Rouge-area high school ranks and I liked him then as well, and all he's done since then is just hit and hit and hit. Doughty is a very professional hitter that makes a ton of contact from the right side, consistently going with the pitch and working an all fields approach. With a bat path that is naturally long through the hitting zone, he has some margin for error on pitches he mistimes. Not just a slappy gap to gap hitter, he has plenty of leverage in his 6'1" frame and taps into above average power both to his pull side and the opposite field. The end product is a very well-rounded bat that has a chance to produce 15-20 home runs annually in the majors while posting relatively high on-base percentages, and I have a feeling he's going to end up closer to his ceiling than his floor. In 2022, he might want to get a bit more selective to try to draw a few more walks, as he tends to make contact early in the count and walked in just 8.5% of his plate appearances last year. He also provides value on defense, with good range and instincts in the infield and an above average arm that would make him a net-positive defender at either second or third base.

8. 2B Robert Moore, Arkansas.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 5'9", 170 lbs. Born 3/31/2002. Hometown: Leawood, KS.
2021: 16 HR, .283/.384/.558, 6 SB, 51/41 K/BB in 61 games.
Every year, guys come around that are just ballers. Last year it was Ryan Bliss, now with the Diamondbacks, and this year Robert Moore seems like the guy. The son of Royals general manager Dayton Moore, Robert is undersized and lacks big tools but can just flat out play baseball with the best of them. He graduated early from Shawnee Mission East High School in the Kansas City suburbs and enrolled at Arkansas when he was just 17, and promptly hit .317/.403/.444 as a freshman despite not being old enough to vote. Moore continued that success with a strong sophomore season at 18-19 years old and then hit .351/.415/.378 as one of the youngest members of the US Collegiate National Team. Standing just 5'9" and with a skinny frame at that, he works counts extremely well and is completely unfazed by elite, older pitching, taking professional at bats consistently day in and day out. The switch hitter is very mechanically sound in his swing from both sides of the plate, creating a ton of whip that gives him more power than you'd expect for his size, especially to the pull side. That power didn't really show up with wood bats for the CNT, where he had just one extra base hit (a double) in eleven games, and given his size it's fair to question how much he'll have in pro ball. It's not quite a Nick Madrigal profile because there is some swing and miss in his game, and he may have to decide going forward what kind of a hitter he wants to be and how much contact he'll trade for power. To me, how much the power will show up with wood bats is probably the most important question. Moore is a sparkplug on defense as well, playing a standout second base for Arkansas and potentially showing the ability to move over to shortstop in pro ball if he can get a little stronger and improve his arm a touch. Either way, he's a plus runner and has the range to play anywhere on the diamond. There are players you don't bet against, and Bob Moore seems like one of them with a Dustin Pedroia ceiling.

9. OF Jud Fabian, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 9/27/2000. Hometown: Ocala, FL.
2021: 20 HR, .249/.364/.560, 6 SB, 79/40 K/BB in 59 games.
We spent a lot of words on Jud Fabian in 2021, and we're going to do it again in 2022. Having graduated a semester early from Trinity Catholic High School in Ocala, Florida in 2018, he enrolled at Florida in time for the 2019 season and had established himself as one of the top prospects in the country (and #3 in the SEC) by the time the 2021 season rolled around. What ensued was an extremely up and down junior year for Fabian, who had four multi-homer games (including one against #2 overall pick Jack Leiter) but at one point also managed to strike out 15 times in 22 hitless plate appearances. The Red Sox still drafted him with the 40th overall pick and offered him a multi-million dollar signing bonus, but it wasn't anywhere close to the $3 million he had asked for (a price some other teams were reportedly willing to meet) and he's returning to school. Last year, Fabian was one of the youngest eligible players from a four year school, still two and a half months shy of his 21st birthday, so he'll be age appropriate for this year's draft and is younger than Hayden Dunhurst. He does a lot of things well and really only has one weakness in his game. The Ocala product has plus raw power and does an excellent job of lifting the ball, with a swing ideal for blasting balls out of the park that has done so consistently against the best arms in the country. As up and down as his season was, he never went more than four games without a home run in the regular season. He also has a very strong eye at the plate, effectively working counts and recognizing spin even against premium velocity and stuff. The problem with his bat, however, is that he simply lacks the barrel accuracy to consistently tap his power and get on base. Fabian's uppercut swing means that even though he rarely chases bad pitches, he often swings through hittable ones and can be prone to long bouts of coming up empty at the plate. In 2022, he'll have to prove he can be more consistent, because another year of ups and downs could knock him out of the top two rounds or so. However, even a small reduction in his strikeout rate where he at least avoids the major slumps that plagued him in 2021 could lock him into the first round. On defense, Fabian provides plenty of value with plus speed and range that will fit very well in center field, taking some pressure off his bat and also helping him out on the bases.

10. LHP Connor Prielipp, Alabama.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 1/10/2001. Hometown: Tomah, WI.
2021: 1-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 12/1 K/BB in 7 IP.
Connor Prielipp is somewhat of the mystery man in this conference. He began his college career perhaps as well as you could possibly expect, tossing 26 shutout innings with 43 strikeouts, six walks, and just nine hits allowed in five non-conference starts against Northeastern, UNLV, Harvard, Lipscomb, and McNeese State. The first four came in the shortened 2020 season, while the McNeese State start ended up being his only start of the 2021 season as his elbow gave out on him. He came back for two much less effective relief appearances against Auburn and LSU in mid-April and mid-May, respectively (2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K), but went down with Tommy John surgery and will likely miss the 2022 season as well. It's not often that an injured pitcher with just 28 collegiate innings to his name can make a first round push, especially when they were not a highly regarded recruit, but Prielipp really is special. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has been up to 97, velocity he has maintained throughout his handful of starts. His slider is a plus pitch with late bite, darting under bats at the last second, and his changeup is an above average pitch in its own right. With a simple, easy delivery, the 6'2" lefty commands his pitches well and has all of the traits you look for in a frontline starting pitcher, and if he hadn't gotten hurt he may very well be the number one player on this list. However, the fact that we haven't seen how he handles a larger workload is important, as he'll be asked to throw roughly seven times his career high in innings in a big league rotation, and for that reason you can't project him as a starter with as much certainty as a guy like Peyton Pallette. Prielipp's five starts have also come against weaker competition, with the two worst innings of his career being the only two he threw against SEC teams (albeit while hurt). On talent alone, he might be the best in the conference, so his low ranking on this list is really just a byproduct of the depth of the conference combined with the unfortunate fact that we just won't have seen him pitch in a very long time come draft day.

11. OF Cayden Wallace, Arkansas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 8/7/2001. Hometown: Greenbrier, AR.
2021: 14 HR, .279/.369/.500, 0 SB, 61/29 K/BB in 60 games.
Cayden Wallace was one of the top recruits to make it to campus following the shutdown, and he immediately made an impact by working his way into the middle of arguably the best lineup in the country as a true freshman. After swatting 14 home runs as a teenager playing an SEC schedule, he continued to produce with wood bats in the Cape Cod League and slashed .290/.352/.468 with two home runs over 18 games. Because he turned 20 over the summer and will be 21 a few weeks after the draft, he'll be eligible this year as a true sophomore. The first thing you notice with Wallace is the power, as he produces big exit velocities and crushes baseballs impressive distances from the right side. Not the biggest guy in the world at six feet tall, he packs in plenty of lean muscle and produces a ton of force. Evaluators saw him as power-over-hit in high school and that was the case during his freshman season, but he handled SEC pitching better than many expected right out of the gate and was unfazed by the premium stuff he saw on the Cape. There is still some swing and miss in his game with a right handed uppercut that can get a bit long at times, but the barrel does get into the hitting zone early and he does a great job of staying through the ball. As his pitch recognition skills sharpen with age, he should become an average hitter in the big leagues with the potential for plus power. The central Arkansas native is a below average runner but certainly not a base clogger, and his cannon right arm gives him a chance to be an average defender in right field. He played infield in high school and could stick at third base with some more seasoning, and he may get the opportunity to prove himself a bit at the position in 2022 after playing mostly right field in 2021. There's a little more projection required with Wallace because he doesn't control the strike zone as well as many of the names above him on this list, but he's also younger than most of them as well. Either way, expect big things from him in 2022.

12. LHP Hunter Barco, Florida.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 220 lbs. Born 12/15/2000. Hometown: Jacksonville, FL.
2021: 10-3, 4.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 94/26 K/BB in 83 innings.
Hayden Dunhurst, Landon Sims, Cade Doughty, and Cayden Wallace may have been nationally-known prospects coming out of high school, but Hunter Barco was the most hyped of all of them at Bolles High School in Jacksonville, earning first round grades from some evaluators. His performance at Florida has been more up and down than he may have liked so far, but with a 3.52 ERA and a sharp 120/32 strikeout to walk ratio through 102.1 innings over two seasons, he remains very much a contender for the first round. Barco has a deep arm plunge in his delivery and comes from a low three quarters slot that gives a unique look to hitters, especially from the left side, getting down the mound well with his lower half and showing off his athleticism. His stuff can be inconsistent, with a fastball that can get up to 96-97 at its best but which has also been known to drop into the upper 80's. The slider is his best pitch, a plus, sweepy breaker when it's on that creates a lot of confused swings, while his split changeup gives him another above average pitch. Barco's in-zone command can come and go but he does a very good job of pounding the strike zone even when he isn't feeling as precise with his location, and only once in his twenty career starts has he walked more than three batters in an outing. The 6'4" lefty has projection remaining and is a very good athlete, and he gave a glimpse at his ceiling this summer when he struck out eight of the ten batters he faced for the US Collegiate National Team. On the docket for 2022 will be a bit more consistency, which could help him overtake Connor Prielipp, Landon Sims, and Peyton Pallette as the best arm in the conference.

Honorable Mentions
Given the depth of this conference, I wanted to touch on a couple more names that just missed. Vanderbilt's Spencer Jones was the first name off the list, as he hasn't received much playing time in Nashville but slashed an impressive .309/.409/.457 on the Cape and shows plus raw power from a 6'7" frame. He was one of the more famous players in the 2019 prep class out of high school in the San Diego area but made it to campus after injuries wiped out his senior season, and at the time he drew early round interest as a pitcher with a low 90's fastball and an above average curveball as well. He hasn't pitched at all for Vanderbilt and has only played in 48 games overall in two seasons, so it will be interesting to see how much he can tap that power in games on a consistent basis in 2022 and whether his strong plate discipline can translate to a plus hit tool despite the natural swing and miss you get with arms as long as his. And maybe we'll finally get to see him pitch. Tennessee's Blade Tidwell is another interesting draft-eligible sophomore who will turn 21 in June, coming off a strong true-freshman season in the Volunteer rotation where he had a 3.74 ERA and a 90/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 98.2 innings. The 6'4" righty has a power right arm that can run his fastball up to 97 with ease, sitting in the mid 90's and showing very good feel to spin both a slider and curveball as well. His control is ahead of his command but he pounds the strike zone consistently and rarely hurts himself with walks, giving him a high floor as a back-end starter with a mid-rotation ceiling. Florida's Brandon Sproat might have the strongest arm in the entire conference, but he has a 5.53 ERA and a 26/18 strikeout to walk ratio over just 27.2 innings because he's struggled to throw strikes. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch 99 in relief, while his above average slider provides an out pitch. To this point, he looks like a reliever because of that below average command and the lack of a reliable changeup, but there are no glaring issues in his delivery and more consistent innings in 2022 might help him pull it together enough to earn a shot as a starter. Lastly, LSU's Eric Reyzelman is one of the more interesting transfers out there, having come over from San Francisco. While his numbers against weaker competition weren't that impressive over two years with the Dons (5.72 ERA, 56/36 K/BB in 50.1 IP), he was much stronger on the Cape this summer (2.93 ERA, 38/8 K/BB in 27.2 IP) and he's a breakout candidate for 2022. The 6'2" righty now sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can touch 96-97 in short stints, adding a full arsenal behind it headlined by an above average slider. Reyzelman has a very loose, athletic delivery with some deception and is young for the class, in fact younger than true-sophomore Tidwell despite being a junior.