First 5 rounds: Logan Warmoth (1-22), Nate Pearson (1-28), Hagen Danner (2-61), Riley Adams (3-99), Kevin Smith (4-129), Cullen Large (5-159).
Also notable: Brock Lundquist (6-189), Kacy Clemens (8-249), Zach Logue (9-279), Daniel Ritcheson (23-699)
The Blue Jays had four of the first 100 picks, and they managed to use them plus their next pick to pull in five players in my top 100. Though they have just the thirteenth largest bonus pool, this may turn out to be an expensive draft, though fourth rounder Kevin Smith already signed for an at-slot, $405,100 bonus. The Jays leaned mostly offense, taking six hitters in their first seven picks, and also seemingly spurned upside for safety by grabbing just one high schooler in their first fourteen picks. Outside of Nate Pearson and their lone early-round high schooler, Hagen Danner, there isn't really much upside with this class, but we could see many of these guys in the big leagues fairly soon, at least in reserve roles. Overall, they tended to look at big programs, drafting players out of UNC, Maryland, Long Beach State, Texas, Kentucky, Wake Forest, and Texas A&M all in the first 21 rounds.
1-22: SS Logan Warmoth (my rank: 28)
I was a little bit surprised by this pick, considering the fact that there were names like Jeren Kendall, Sam Carlson, and Alex Lange still on the board, but Toronto had been tied to Warmoth for most of the spring and they got their guy. Warmoth is a low ceiling, high floor college performer who will likely replace Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop when the time comes. If he has to move off shortstop, he could put an end to the revolving door method the Blue Jays have employed at second base. He doesn't have any tools that excite, but he's a competent hitter who slashed .336/.404/.554 with 10 home runs for UNC this year, though he did at times look lost at the plate when I saw him play in May. He could develop into one of those not-so-exciting-but-valuable middle infielders, like Logan Forsythe or Zack Cozart, both of whom were also drafted out of southern schools (Arkansas and Ole Miss, respectively).
1-28: RHP Nate Pearson (my rank: 31)
Here is the big upside pick. Unlike most of the other Jays picks, Pearson has a pretty low floor, but his upside is so special that teams were considering the 6'5" righty as early as the first half of the first round. Armed with a plus-plus fastball, he created a stir just before the draft when he reportedly hit 102 MPH in a bullpen session, and his secondaries have made enough progress to the point where he was concerned a bona-fide first rounder. Pearson, a sophomore out of the Junior College of Central Florida, is still fairly raw as a pitcher, but his slider and changeup have made significant progress this spring, as has his command. He'll have to continue to improve those offspeeds and his command if he wants to start, but he can easily fall back on a bullpen career.
2-61: C Hagen Danner (my rank: 41)
I ranked Danner 41st...as a pitcher. Yet another two way player in this draft, the Blue Jays may have themselves a steal here in the late second round. A longtime top prospect for this draft, some of the shine has worn off for Danner, out of Huntington Beach High School in SoCal, but he's still a legitimate prospect. I preferred him as a pitcher, but shoulder soreness plus an extreme lack of catching in this draft makes it completely defensible for Toronto to select him as a catcher. Danner is a strong young man, showing big power at the plate and big arm strength behind it. He's a capable defender that should stick as a catcher, though how much contact he can make will control his rise through the minors. He's committed to UCLA and was drafted slightly below where some thought he would be drafted, so he'll likely be a tough sign.
3-99: C Riley Adams (my rank: 70)
Here's another catcher that the Blue Jays grabbed much later than his ranking would predict. Teams were reportedly looking at Adams for an underslot deal as early as the late first round, so getting him here with his big time power is a steal, especially for a college player who lacks the leverage to have high bonus demands. Is a similar player to Danner, but with even bigger power and bigger swing and miss concerns. The University of San Diego's catcher slashed .312/.424/.564 with 13 home runs this year, and while teams would have liked to see a strikeout rate lower than the 22.8% he put up in a mid-major conference, that's solid production for a guy who can stick behind the plate. Standing 6'5" with a lean build, he's an imposing figure that could grow into even more power, but he'll have to prove he can catch up to pro pitching. Between Adams and Danner, the Blue Jays should get at least one MLB caliber catcher out of this draft.
4-129: SS Kevin Smith (my rank: 93)
Smith has a bit of an interesting profile. He's young for a college junior, not turning 21 until July, and he has the athleticism and arm strength necessary to stay at shortstop. That said, the Maryland Terrapin isn't the fastest guy on the field and is known much more for his power than for his pure hitting ability. He never really put up big numbers for Maryland, slashing .268/.323/.552 with 13 home runs this year and striking out in 21.1% of his plate appearances while walking in just 6.3%. He did perform well on the Cape last summer (.301/.348/.427, 2 HR), and he could put up Kelly Johnson-type numbers if everything works out. He has more power than even first rounder Warmoth, but he hasn't proven he can get to it.
Others: 5th rounder Cullen Large was a three year performer at William & Mary, slashing a career .323/.399/.475 with 16 home runs over 169 games. He's a solid all-around hitter who can hold his own at second base, so here's yet another high-floor option in the infield. 6th rounder Brock Lundquist is, you guessed it, another college player with a track record of success. The Long Beach State outfielder had a bit of a disappointing season by slashing .277/.388/.429 with four home runs for the Dirtbags this year, though he did dramatically improve his walk rate to 11.4%. He may be more of a project, because he has the power and strength to be a multi-category performer, but he's inconsistent with his mechanics and leaks a lot of power in his swing. 8th rounder Kacy Clemens, out of UT-Austin, is the son of Roger Clemens, but he'll be a first baseman in the Toronto system. The Texas senior had a power breakout this year, slashing .305/.414/.532 with 12 home runs for the Longhorns, walking in 14.9% of his plate appearances. 23rd rounder Daniel Ritcheson just missed my top 150 rankings, as he is a high-upside right handed pitcher with some maturity issues. He likely won't sign this late in the draft and instead honor his commitment to San Diego State, but he already has a power fastball/slider combination, though the slider needs tightening. Teams weren't sold on his ability to handle pro ball yet due to his tendency to get frustrated easily on the mound, and spending three years maturing at school could do him a lot of good.
Showing posts with label Logan Warmoth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Logan Warmoth. Show all posts
Monday, June 19, 2017
Sunday, June 11, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: College Hitters With No Standout Tool
1st Tier: Adam Haseley, Keston Hiura
2nd Tier: Logan Warmoth, Evan White, Brian Miller, K.J. Harrison, Stuart Fairchild
3rd Tier: Connor Wong, Kevin Smith, Joey Morgan
Others: Zach Rutherford, Taylor Walls, Ernie Clement, Devin Hairston, Will Toffey
By the title, this sounds like a strangely specific list, but this type of player is very prevalent in the college game. These guys won't hit 30 home runs or steal 50 bases, but they know how to play the game. They're your future Dustin Pedroias, Alex Bregmans, and Logan Forsythes. Obviously, some players fit better on this list than others, as Hiura's hit tool, White's defense, and Fairchild's speed could technically disqualify them from this list, but overall they fit in well with the other guys.
Tier I (Haseley, Hiura)
I wrote about Adam Haseley under the college power hitters demographic, but I am also much higher on his power than most. For the typical observer, Haseley fits here with his broad skill set. Keston Hiura, who hit .442 for UC-Irvine this year, may have the best hit tool in this draft, but hit isn't the first tool you think of when you think of "toolsy" players. Hiura has big time defensive questions stemming from an elbow injury as well as middling play when he's actually on the field, but he might be the most advanced hitter in this class. Out of every player out there, I'd put Hiura up there with Brendan McKay or Haseley as the one I would most want if I needed a pinch hitter in the MLB today. His swing is still a bit sweepy, but it is better than it was last year and he should continue to make improvements with pro coaching.
Tier II (Warmoth, White, Miller, Harrison, Fairchild)
UNC's Logan Warmoth hit himself into the first round this year, slashing .336/.404/.554 in the always tough ACC, and he probably epitomizes this class more than anybody else. He's a slightly above average hitter and an average defender at a tough position, shortstop. He's a decent runner and slashed a respectably average .270/.330/.450 over 27 games in the Cape Cod League, the toughest collegiate summer league there is. Overall, it's a pretty boring profile, but boring isn't always bad. Kentucky's Evan White would rank in the first tier for some, if not most people, but I'm the low guy on him. I love his mature approach at the plate, but I think he's unlikely to develop more than average power, and he doesn't have a Hiura-like hit tool or a Jeren Kendall-like run tool to offset it. His 10% walk rate is also fairly low, though I think he can improve it. On top of that, he's a first baseman – the best defensive first baseman in the class, but still a first baseman. Many see him coming off the board in the top 20 picks after slashing .368/.450/.627 with nine home runs against tough SEC pitching, but as the low guy on him, I ranked White just outside the top 30. Warmoth's teammate, Brian Miller, shares a lot in common with White. He slashed .343/.422/.502 with seven home runs in an almost-as-tough ACC, and he also plays first base. He's not as good defensively as White, but he is also more likely to be able to transition to center field in pro ball, as he is a bit faster. His profile gets even more interesting because like White, he has a long, flat swing that doesn't produce much power. He does walk a little bit more (12.1%). Most people would be confused to even see the two compared, and I still rank White well ahead of Miller. Oregon State's K.J. Harrison could have been ranked under the power hitters' demographic, but the power is just light enough – for now – that he fits in this category. Despite being one of the youngest college juniors available (he turns 21 in August), Harrison is one of the more advanced college hitters on the market, slashing .330/.396/.515 with eight home runs in the Pac-12 this year. He has the ability to hit for more power (his 21 extra base hits are down from 28 last year), but he focused more on contact and spraying the ball to all fields this season, and the power should come back as he advances. Harrison is limited to first base (though he has an outside shot at catching), and his 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio isn't exactly what you'd hope for, but he is a solid option in the second round that could be somewhat similar to the Mets' 2016 second round pick, Peter Alonso. Lastly, Stuart Fairchild couldn't be any more different from Harrison, profiling more as a poor man's Jeren Kendall. Fairchild is fast enough that I almost didn't include him in this demographic, stealing 46 bases over his three years at Wake Forest (including 20 this year), and he profiles as an above average defender in the outfield. Like Kendall, he has a lot of swing and miss to his game (17% strikeout rate), but his swing is not as clean as Kendall's and does not produce as much power. He slashed an amazing .359/.438/.645 with 17 home runs in the ACC this year (albeit in Wake Forest's hitter-friendly home park), but his .232/.323/.330 line over 34 Cape Cod League games leaves me as the low guy on Fairchild, who some think could crack the top 40 picks.
Tier III (Wong, Smith, Morgan)
Connor Wong is just about the weirdest catcher you've seen. At just 5'10", 170 lbs, he looks more like a second baseman than a backstop, and he can actually play all over the infield if needed. He also stole 26 bases for the University of Houston this year. I'd consider him a Keston Hiura-lite type of player, with the ability to catch but not nearly the offensive capabilities. Maryland's Kevin Smith, who joins Brian Miller in the "boring name" group, also has a weird profile. He has power, and actually ranked among the "others" in the college power hitters demographic, but his 13 home runs were just about the only thing he had going for him at the plate this year, slashing an underwhelming .268/.323/.552. Unlike most power hitters, he is an agile defender, and could actually stick at shortstop. Washington's Joey Morgan is another catcher, one with all-around decent tools who profiles well as a backup at the major league level. He was on very few prospect lists at the beginning of the season, but he slashed .324/.427/.500 in the Pac-12 and unlike some of the other catching prospects in this draft, is a near-certainty to stick behind the plate.
2nd Tier: Logan Warmoth, Evan White, Brian Miller, K.J. Harrison, Stuart Fairchild
3rd Tier: Connor Wong, Kevin Smith, Joey Morgan
Others: Zach Rutherford, Taylor Walls, Ernie Clement, Devin Hairston, Will Toffey
By the title, this sounds like a strangely specific list, but this type of player is very prevalent in the college game. These guys won't hit 30 home runs or steal 50 bases, but they know how to play the game. They're your future Dustin Pedroias, Alex Bregmans, and Logan Forsythes. Obviously, some players fit better on this list than others, as Hiura's hit tool, White's defense, and Fairchild's speed could technically disqualify them from this list, but overall they fit in well with the other guys.
Tier I (Haseley, Hiura)
I wrote about Adam Haseley under the college power hitters demographic, but I am also much higher on his power than most. For the typical observer, Haseley fits here with his broad skill set. Keston Hiura, who hit .442 for UC-Irvine this year, may have the best hit tool in this draft, but hit isn't the first tool you think of when you think of "toolsy" players. Hiura has big time defensive questions stemming from an elbow injury as well as middling play when he's actually on the field, but he might be the most advanced hitter in this class. Out of every player out there, I'd put Hiura up there with Brendan McKay or Haseley as the one I would most want if I needed a pinch hitter in the MLB today. His swing is still a bit sweepy, but it is better than it was last year and he should continue to make improvements with pro coaching.
Tier II (Warmoth, White, Miller, Harrison, Fairchild)
UNC's Logan Warmoth hit himself into the first round this year, slashing .336/.404/.554 in the always tough ACC, and he probably epitomizes this class more than anybody else. He's a slightly above average hitter and an average defender at a tough position, shortstop. He's a decent runner and slashed a respectably average .270/.330/.450 over 27 games in the Cape Cod League, the toughest collegiate summer league there is. Overall, it's a pretty boring profile, but boring isn't always bad. Kentucky's Evan White would rank in the first tier for some, if not most people, but I'm the low guy on him. I love his mature approach at the plate, but I think he's unlikely to develop more than average power, and he doesn't have a Hiura-like hit tool or a Jeren Kendall-like run tool to offset it. His 10% walk rate is also fairly low, though I think he can improve it. On top of that, he's a first baseman – the best defensive first baseman in the class, but still a first baseman. Many see him coming off the board in the top 20 picks after slashing .368/.450/.627 with nine home runs against tough SEC pitching, but as the low guy on him, I ranked White just outside the top 30. Warmoth's teammate, Brian Miller, shares a lot in common with White. He slashed .343/.422/.502 with seven home runs in an almost-as-tough ACC, and he also plays first base. He's not as good defensively as White, but he is also more likely to be able to transition to center field in pro ball, as he is a bit faster. His profile gets even more interesting because like White, he has a long, flat swing that doesn't produce much power. He does walk a little bit more (12.1%). Most people would be confused to even see the two compared, and I still rank White well ahead of Miller. Oregon State's K.J. Harrison could have been ranked under the power hitters' demographic, but the power is just light enough – for now – that he fits in this category. Despite being one of the youngest college juniors available (he turns 21 in August), Harrison is one of the more advanced college hitters on the market, slashing .330/.396/.515 with eight home runs in the Pac-12 this year. He has the ability to hit for more power (his 21 extra base hits are down from 28 last year), but he focused more on contact and spraying the ball to all fields this season, and the power should come back as he advances. Harrison is limited to first base (though he has an outside shot at catching), and his 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio isn't exactly what you'd hope for, but he is a solid option in the second round that could be somewhat similar to the Mets' 2016 second round pick, Peter Alonso. Lastly, Stuart Fairchild couldn't be any more different from Harrison, profiling more as a poor man's Jeren Kendall. Fairchild is fast enough that I almost didn't include him in this demographic, stealing 46 bases over his three years at Wake Forest (including 20 this year), and he profiles as an above average defender in the outfield. Like Kendall, he has a lot of swing and miss to his game (17% strikeout rate), but his swing is not as clean as Kendall's and does not produce as much power. He slashed an amazing .359/.438/.645 with 17 home runs in the ACC this year (albeit in Wake Forest's hitter-friendly home park), but his .232/.323/.330 line over 34 Cape Cod League games leaves me as the low guy on Fairchild, who some think could crack the top 40 picks.
Tier III (Wong, Smith, Morgan)
Connor Wong is just about the weirdest catcher you've seen. At just 5'10", 170 lbs, he looks more like a second baseman than a backstop, and he can actually play all over the infield if needed. He also stole 26 bases for the University of Houston this year. I'd consider him a Keston Hiura-lite type of player, with the ability to catch but not nearly the offensive capabilities. Maryland's Kevin Smith, who joins Brian Miller in the "boring name" group, also has a weird profile. He has power, and actually ranked among the "others" in the college power hitters demographic, but his 13 home runs were just about the only thing he had going for him at the plate this year, slashing an underwhelming .268/.323/.552. Unlike most power hitters, he is an agile defender, and could actually stick at shortstop. Washington's Joey Morgan is another catcher, one with all-around decent tools who profiles well as a backup at the major league level. He was on very few prospect lists at the beginning of the season, but he slashed .324/.427/.500 in the Pac-12 and unlike some of the other catching prospects in this draft, is a near-certainty to stick behind the plate.
Monday, May 15, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Logan Warmoth
SS Logan Warmoth (University of North Carolina): 6', 190 lbs, born 9/6/1995
Overview
Hit: 55. Power: 45. Run: 55. Throw: 50. Field: 50.
Nothing stands out about Warmoth, but he has no glaring weaknesses, either. The UNC shortstop played well on the Cape (.270/.330/.450 in 111 PA) and that has carried over into this season (.330/.408/.537 in 233 PA as of May 15th). He gets on base, he has a little pop, he can run, and he can play the middle infield, making his most likely outcome something between a solid utility man and a decent starting second baseman or shortstop. In a class very short on college bats, that's a nice find, and Warmoth will likely hear his name be called somewhere in the back half of the first round or in the supplemental/competitive balance rounds, putting his approximate range between pick 20 and pick 35.
Strengths
As I said earlier, there are no standout strengths for Warmoth, but his biggest strength is a lack of weaknesses. He has a .408 on-base percentage so far in 2017, and his 25 extra base hits (15 doubles, 3 triples, 7 home runs) have lead to a career best .207 ISO. He has 24 walks for a solid 10.3% rate, and he has stolen 17 bases in 20 tries, good for an 85% success rate. He does a good job of transferring his weight in his swing and already has some loft, and with his track record in both the Cape Cod League and the ACC, he has a high floor. If he doesn't stick at shortstop defensively, he can still be a solid second baseman.
Weaknesses
Warmoth doesn't have a standout tool, so he'll have to make sure nothing slumps, or he can get forgotten. If any of his tools don't play up, he could find himself as a utility man. All of his tools look like they will, but he doesn't have much of a margin for error. Though his 10.3% walk rate has been solid this year, I would like to have seen fewer strikeouts, as his 32 whiffs give him a 13.7% rate. He also struck out three times in the game I saw him in, all swinging, and looked lost at the plate before finding himself against Virginia Tech's weak bullpen.
Overview
Hit: 55. Power: 45. Run: 55. Throw: 50. Field: 50.
Nothing stands out about Warmoth, but he has no glaring weaknesses, either. The UNC shortstop played well on the Cape (.270/.330/.450 in 111 PA) and that has carried over into this season (.330/.408/.537 in 233 PA as of May 15th). He gets on base, he has a little pop, he can run, and he can play the middle infield, making his most likely outcome something between a solid utility man and a decent starting second baseman or shortstop. In a class very short on college bats, that's a nice find, and Warmoth will likely hear his name be called somewhere in the back half of the first round or in the supplemental/competitive balance rounds, putting his approximate range between pick 20 and pick 35.
Strengths
As I said earlier, there are no standout strengths for Warmoth, but his biggest strength is a lack of weaknesses. He has a .408 on-base percentage so far in 2017, and his 25 extra base hits (15 doubles, 3 triples, 7 home runs) have lead to a career best .207 ISO. He has 24 walks for a solid 10.3% rate, and he has stolen 17 bases in 20 tries, good for an 85% success rate. He does a good job of transferring his weight in his swing and already has some loft, and with his track record in both the Cape Cod League and the ACC, he has a high floor. If he doesn't stick at shortstop defensively, he can still be a solid second baseman.
Weaknesses
Warmoth doesn't have a standout tool, so he'll have to make sure nothing slumps, or he can get forgotten. If any of his tools don't play up, he could find himself as a utility man. All of his tools look like they will, but he doesn't have much of a margin for error. Though his 10.3% walk rate has been solid this year, I would like to have seen fewer strikeouts, as his 32 whiffs give him a 13.7% rate. He also struck out three times in the game I saw him in, all swinging, and looked lost at the plate before finding himself against Virginia Tech's weak bullpen.
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