Sunday, October 11, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

Full list of draftees

With three of the first 53 picks, Arizona had some extra draft capital to play with. While I liked a few individual picks, including first rounder Ryder Helfrick and eleventh rounder Cody Boshell, I do think they came away with a bit less upside than they might have if they played the draft more aggressively. They spent their exact bonus pool without using any of the overage space, which may or may not have been the plan with seventeenth rounder Rylan Alaniz going unsigned and heading to Texas State instead, but it does represent a missed opportunity. In this class, four of the five highest bonuses went to position players, but the depth of the class is mostly pitching representing eight of the next nine highest bonuses.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-15: C Ryder Helfrick, Arkansas
Slot value: $5.24 million. Signing bonus: $5.24 million.
My rank: #8. MLB Pipeline: #11. ESPN: #14.
The Diamondbacks got their draft going in a big way, making one of my favorite picks of the first round. Ryder Helfrick was a well-known prep prospect out of Northern California in 2023, but made it to campus at Arkansas where he has blossomed into one of the best amateur catchers in the country. He struggled as a freshman in 2024, but turned it on over the past two seasons and slashed .293/.418/.587 with 33 home runs in 123 combined games. Helfrick has a ferocious right handed swing that channels all of the strength in his 6'1", 210 pound frame into plus power that he taps regularly, power that will absolutely play with wood bats and against pro pitching. While he is power over hit, he has cleaned up his approach significantly in Fayetteville and dropped his strikeout rate from 26.9% as a freshman to 22.5% as a sophomore to 19.1% as a junior, meanwhile upping his walk rate from 13.5% to 13.6% to 19.1% in the same span. There are still holes in his swing, as he can aggressively hunt for power and pull off the ball, leaving him especially susceptible to offspeed stuff away, but he impressively made adjustments and actually ran better strikeout and walk rates in SEC play (18.6% and 20.0%) than outside of it. In all, it's a very attractive offensive profile that could hit 30+ home runs per year with reasonable on-base percentages, which is plenty of offense at the games toughest defensive position. Helfrick has come a long way behind the plate and now looks the part of a plus defender back there, showing much more agility and consistency with his glovework while retaining the cannon arm he has always had. Catchers almost always fall into one of two categories: glove-first guys who you just hope and pray will hit enough to keep their glove on the field, or bat-first guys who you know will hit but who may be forced off the position. Helfrick is neither, combining plus power and a solid hit tool with plus defense to give him the upside as a potential All Star catcher. How he adjusts to pro ball and closes up the holes in his swing will determine if he reaches that ceiling.

CBA-31: RHP Blake Bryant, Citizens Christian HS [GA]
Slot value: $3.12 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($368,300 below slot value).
My rank: #45. MLB Pipeline: #65. ESPN: #84.
It's not often you see a high school pitcher go in this range of the draft and sign below slot, but the Diamondbacks cut a nice little deal with Blake Bryant to sign him away from a Clemson commitment for roughly the value of the #36 pick here at #31. Bryant is a massive upside play as a relatively raw, ultra talented pitcher from a small town in South Georgia. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 96, which is nice velocity for now but almost certain to continue to climb as he develops. He's already getting better at holding that velocity deeper into games and has plenty room to fill out his lanky frame. The 6'6" string bean shows a 12-6 curveball and a sweeping slider that both show considerable upside, though they can pop out of his hand a little and break early at times. He adds a changeup, but it's a fourth pitch at this point. Not terribly unexpected for a player from a small town off the beaten path, his mechanics are relatively raw with significant head whack and an arm slot that can wander from pitch to pitch. However, Bryant's arm talent is absolutely undeniable and just a short time in a pro development system could help him leap forward as a pitcher. He's very athletic on the mound and comes with significant projection, looking like a potential ace to those highest on his upside. Arizona will develop him deliberately and patiently to help him reach that lofty ceiling, starting with sharpening his offspeed stuff, streamlining those mechanics, and feeding him plenty of steak and eggs. Bryant is slightly old for a high school draftee and turned 19 in August.

2-53: SS Carson Kerce, Georgia Tech
Slot value: $1.85 million. Signing bonus: $1.9 million ($51,800 above slot value).
My rank: #97. MLB Pipeline: #114. ESPN: #122.
Carson Kerce was a big helium name late in the draft cycle, one who ranked outside the top 100 on most public boards, barely snuck into my top 100, and ultimately went in the second round. He did so by improving in each of his three seasons in Atlanta, jumping from a .282/.392/.366 line with two home runs as a freshman to .313/.411/.475 with four home runs as a sophomore last year to an exceptional .384/.473/.679 with eleven home runs this year as a junior. Kerce only checks in at 5'11" but packs a punch at the plate with a simple approach from the right side: if he likes it, he drops his barrel to the baseball and drives through it, rarely looking to do too much and instead making a ton of contact right on the barrel. He'll take walks when he doesn't get what he likes, but when he does, he doesn't let too many hittable pitches go by and happily jumps on strikes. That approach has worked extremely well in college, running low strikeout rates and even finishing second in all of Division I with 29 doubles in 61 games. The power has always been well below average, but he found the barrel so often in 2026 that it's hard to discount at least some impact potential. While he spread his home runs around the field with metal bats in 2026, the power will probably primarily come to the pull side with wood. Earlier in the seasons, most projections would have had him at five to ten home runs per season in the big leagues, but his strong 2026 has those most bullish on him (including the Diamondbacks, obviously) thinking he could pop for double digits more often than not. Kerce played third base earlier in his Georgia Tech career and took over at shortstop in 2026, where his gritty style of play helps him project as fringe-average at the position. More realistically, his actions may be just a bit stretched at shortstop, so there is a reasonably good chance he slides off to second or third base in the long run. The Atlanta-area native projects as a utility infielder at his floor or, if the impact continues to play with wood like the Diamondbacks expect, a high average starter somewhere on the infield.

3-88: OF Brayden Dowd, Florida State
Slot value: $915,100. Signing bonus: $775,000 ($140,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #178. ESPN: #128.
Brayden Dowd is an interesting one with a bit of a polarizing profile, but one the Diamondbacks really like. He's been all over the country already, growing up in the Detroit area before beginning his career at Southern Cal. He was one of the Trojans' best hitters especially in his sophomore 2025 season, then transferred across the country to Florida State for his junior 2026 season. A solid year in Tallahassee cemented him as a potential top five round prospect, though going here in the third round was a bit sooner than many expected. Dowd does a lot of things well on the field even if he lacks a single standout tool. A very patient hitter, he draws a ton of walks (21.2% walk rate) and makes good contact against velocity, though it's more average against offspeed. Like Carson Kerce, he doesn't try to do too much at the plate and works through the ball with an all fields, line drive approach from the left side. That approach has limited his power output in college, but the exit velocities are indicative of potential average power and some 15+ homer seasons in the big leagues if he tries to turn on it more often. Dowd is an average runner whose speed plays up due to his instincts, going ten for ten in stolen bases in 2026 while getting good jumps in center field. A more explosive defender may push him to left field in the long run, but for now he'll get every chance to stick in center field which would of course help the bat profile better. If Dowd moves to left field, he probably won't hit quite enough to play every day, and the Arizona system is always stacked with great up the middle players. The Diamondbacks do appear confident that he'll continue to put things together at the plate and love his makeup.

4-116: RHP Josh McDevitt, Missouri
Slot value: $670,900. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($120,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #236. ESPN: unranked.
Moving to the college pitching side, the Diamondbacks found a lot they like in Josh McDevitt. He barely pitched over his first two seasons and struggled when he did get on the mound, but took a huge step forward as a junior and served as Missouri's Friday night starter. McDevitt leans primarily on his fastball, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching 97 at peak with ride to zip past bats. It got great results in 2026 despite high usage, consistently missing bats and profiling as a potentially plus pitch. He shows an inconsistent curveball with nice snap at times, though the pitch is inconsistent and he does not command it as well as his fastball. He rounds it out with a solid sinking changeup that has been a bit more reliable than the curveball, though both secondaries play second fiddle to the fastball. The 6'2" righty works from a three quarters delivery and gets nice extension combined with a lower release point, both of which are factors in helping the fastball play up and giving Arizona a lot to work with. The command is fringy but he holds his stuff well over his starts, giving Arizona the ingredients it needs to turn him into a solid big league starting pitcher. To get there, he'll need to get more consistent with his curveball and his command, and given that he is very old for a college junior having turned 22 a month before the draft, he has a little bit less time to work on everything. If starting doesn't work out, the fastball quality should take yet another step forward in the bullpen and he won't need to lean much on his offspeed stuff.

5-148: RHP LJ Mercurius, Oklahoma
Slot value: $491,700. Signing bonus: $450,000 ($41,700 below slot value).
My rank: #127. MLB Pipeline: #186. ESPN: #187.
From Paul Sewald to Ryne Nelson to Tommy Pham, Phoenix's desert brother Las Vegas has provided the Diamondbacks several players in recent years. LJ Mercurius will make one more. After graduating from Faith Lutheran in Sin City, he stayed home to play at UNLV with his brother Xander for his first two years of college. A strong sophomore season earned the brothers the opportunity to transfer to Oklahoma, where LJ came out of the gate red hot with a dominant run through non-conference play (4-0, 0.39 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 34/6 K/BB in 23.1 IP against Oklahoma State, Coppin State, Gonzaga, and Santa Clara) and established himself as a potential second round pick. SEC play was a different story as he got knocked around to an 8.92 ERA in 35.1 innings, resetting his draft stock, but he did put an exclamation mark on his season by tossing 5.2 innings of one run ball against UNC in the College World Series Finals to earn the National Championship-clinching win for the Sooners. Mercurius works with the same low to mid 90's fastball as Josh McDevitt, similarly peaking at 97, though his movement is a little more generic. He has a sharp slider that missed mid-major bats in bunches and also shows a solid changeup, making for a very solid three pitch mix. Mercurius throws plenty of strikes but his control is well ahead of his command, leading to too many pitches catching the heart of the plate and leading to his tendency to get blown up at times. Arizona likes his uptempo, athletic delivery that should be conducive to further velocity gains as he adds to his skinny 6'2" frame, giving him a chance to stick as a starter if he tightens things up a little bit. If he moves to the bullpen, he can lean on his quality fastball/slider combination.

11-326: 1B Cody Boshell, Bishop Snyder HS [FL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $750,000 ($600,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: #142.
Arizona spent most of the first half of the draft saving money, leaving them plenty of space to go over slot and make some splashes in the back half. Cody Boshell wound up the only big splash there, taking early fourth round money (roughly the value of the #105 pick) to sign away from a Tennessee commitment here in the eleventh round. He brings huge upside in somewhat of a Jac Caglianone package, without Caglianone's sky high chase rates. Boshell is a 6'3", 220 pound slugger with a violent left handed swing that produces plus raw power with strong biometric data to back it up. He gets the ball in the air as well, making for a potential 30 home run bat if things break right. Additionally, Boshell performed well on the 2025 summer showcase circuit and created many fans out of those who saw him on the right days, perhaps none more so than in Arizona. More advanced pitchers will probably find holes in his swing and force him to refine his operation a little bit, and his advanced age (he turned 19 in May) gives him a hair less development time than others in his graduating class. Defensively, the Jacksonville native lacks significant upside due to fringy speed and is raw regardless, showing choppy actions in the outfield and an aggressive style of play that will need to be toned down as the game speeds up in pro ball. He does have a plus arm that was up to 96 on the mound, where he was a significant pitching prospect with a sharp breaking ball and a sturdy frame. The Diamondbacks see a physical left handed power hitter with a track record of performance and see him hitting in the middle of their order in a few years.

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

The Miami Marlins executed a clear strategy here to put together a very interesting draft class. First, they surprisingly landed one of the top players in the entire class and a hometown kid in the middle of the first round, then selected back to back safe bet back-end starting pitchers. With their first four picks, they saved an impressive $900K, which they spent on a slew of sleeper prep prospects. Contact/speed bat Wessley Roberson was the most expensive, but they also brought in real deep sleepers in a pair of raw, projectable trees in the 6'6" Nic Tolbert and the 6'8" Bane Barker later on, then finished with two-way threat Joey Lawson. I of course love getting Jacob Lombard below slot, though I am otherwise a bit underwhelmed with a class that featured four of the first 87 picks and all the capital that comes with it. If any of these preps hit, though, it will be a success.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-14: SS Jacob Lombard, Gulliver Prep HS [FL]
Slot value: $5.44 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($444,900 below slot value).
My rank: #5. MLB Pipeline: #5. ESPN: #6.
Five years ago, the Marlins surprised the baseball world by floating potential top-five pick and star prep Kahlil Watson down to the #16 overall pick. While Watson was eventually traded to Cleveland and hasn't quite put things together yet, the Marlins are following an eerily similar path in 2026. Jacob Lombard too was universally regarded as one of the top preps in the country, with serious interest in the top five picks and most major outlets ranking him in the top six or seven. Not only did he make it down to fourteen, he even signed below slot value. Previously a Miami commit, he'll hop off I-95 a few exits earlier on his way to LoanDepot Park instead. So who is the new hometown star? Jacob Lombard is the younger brother of Yankees rookie star George Lombard Jr. and the son of former big league outfielder George Lombard Sr., and he is now the highest drafted of the trio. Long a famous name in the class, he had eyes on the #1 overall pick until a so-so summer knocked him down just a few pegs behind rising names like Roch Cholowsky and Grady Emerson. He swung and missed just a bit more than scouts hoped, so he headed back to Miami with something to prove. At Gulliver Prep just two miles from the University of Miami campus and eight miles from LoanDepot, he showed scouts everything they wanted to see with a strong senior season where he stood out as the clear cut best hitter in the state of Florida. Listed at 6'3", 195 pounds, he is as tooled up as they come with strength, athleticism, and projection to dream on. He stands out for plus power from the right side, a product of his strength and great leverage in his right handed swing. He taps that power consistently by getting the ball up in the air and effectively channeling his strength through the baseball, making for an extremely dangerous bat. The hit tool may have more questions and is likely the reason he lasted about a half dozen-plus picks past where he was expected to go. Lombard has a long track record with the bat on the showcase circuit, but it appears teams may be slightly more turned off by the aforementioned swing and miss he showed in the summer of 2025 that caused several them to look elsewhere in the top ten picks. The swing can get grooved at times and pro pitchers will begin to attack any holes they can find in that swing. Lombard is a good hitter with a good plan at the plate, and at just 18 years old, he has plenty of time to iron things out and the Marlins are confident he will. Beyond the bat, the Miami native is an easy plus runner who can wreak havoc on the bases, and even if he slows down with added strength, he should continue to be a big asset in that regard. Lombard is also a very smooth defender at shortstop with excellent body control, smooth actions, and the ability to throw from multiple angles, making him a near-lock to stick at the toughest infield position. The arm is closer to average, but it should be no issue. Lombard projects for 30+ home runs annually with decent on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases, making for an All Star shortstop ceiling albeit with some risk in the hit tool.

2-52: LHP Ethan Kleinschmit, Oregon State
Slot value: $1.89 million. Signing bonus: $1.89 million.
My rank: #100. MLB Pipeline: #69. ESPN: #72.
After swinging for the fences with Jacob Lombard, Miami went with a safer profile for their second pick in Ethan Kleinschmit. He began his career at Linn-Benton JC in Oregon, where he dominated West Coast JuCo competition as a freshman and earned the opportunity to transfer fifteen minutes down the road to Oregon State. He has been a staple in the Beavers rotation for the past two seasons, making 32 starts and going 17-7 with a 3.64 ERA and an impressive 210 strikeouts over 168 innings. Kleinschmit won't overpower hitters, sitting in the low 90's and touching 95 at peak, but the fastball has been effective against college hitters. His best pitch is a big diving slider with great depth that he'll throw to both lefties and righties, sending them away from lefties or down at the back foot of lefties. The Oregon native also throws a solid changeup that gives him a very effective third pitch, making for a very strong baseline for an innings eating starting pitcher. Kleinschmit has a very simple delivery and repeats it well, looking like he's just tossing it in there and maintaining his stuff deep into starts. That leads to above average command and helps him execute all three pitches consistently. The 6'3" lefty is plenty durable and projects as a prototypical #4 starter who could be one of the rare modern pitchers to eclipse two hundred innings every year. There is a lot of Patrick Corbin in this profile and Marlins fans may see him in Riverside sooner rather than later.

CBB-71: RHP Ryan Peterson, Sam Houston State
Slot value: $1.19 million. Signing bonus: $897,500 ($295,100 below slot value).
My rank: #104. MLB Pipeline: #86. ESPN: #154.
Heading back to the safe bet starting pitcher wellspring, Miami went a little under slot value to bring in Ryan Peterson. He hit campus in 2024 and turned 20 midway through his freshman season, where he served as an effective swingman, then joined the rotation full time as a sophomore but to middling results. He went undrafted and returned to Huntsville, where he took a big step forward as a junior by cutting his ERA almost in half and bumping his strikeout rate from 21.4% to 28.5%. Like Ethan Kleinschmit, he sits in the low 90's and touching 95 with his fastball albeit with ordinary life. While Kleinschmit makes his money on his slider, Peterson shows off a plus curveball with sharp, deep bite to dive under bats. He also turns over an average slider, though despite his two-breaking ball mix and advanced age, he doesn't have much of a changeup. The 6'3" righty has a sturdy frame and an athletic delivery with nice extension, putting a little extra hop on his pitches, and he fills up the strike zone with above average command. Despite carrying 215 pounds on that big 6'3" frame, he moves like a much smaller pitcher and his athleticism was certainly appealing to the Marlins. He's advanced with a good fastball and a pair of breaking balls, though having turned 22 back in April, he'll need to find a changeup relatively quickly as he moves up through the system. He'll look to join Kleinschmit in the back half of the Miami rotation in short order.

3-87: SS Cam Kozeal, Arkansas
Slot value: $929,700. Signing bonus: $772,500 ($157,200 below slot value).
My rank: #118. MLB Pipeline: #115. ESPN: #124.
Continuing with the savings, Miami targets its first college bat in Cam Kozeal here in the third round. Kozeal has long been a famous name, earning national exposure as a potential top five round pick out of high school in Omaha back in 2023. He made it to campus at Vanderbilt and earned significant playing time as a freshman, but transferred to Arkansas after one season. There, he blossomed as a hitter by slashing .326/.399/.630 with 35 home runs in 122 games and improved from the #170 prospect on my 2023 draft rankings to my #118 prospect in 2026. A bit undersized at 5'10", he has filled out really nicely in Fayetteville and now packs 205 pounds on his strong, stocky frame. As he has gotten stronger, his swing has gotten whippier and his barrel heavier, generating higher exit velocities that helped him jump from fringy to average or even a tick above average power. He has always been a scrappy hitter who works his at bats while attacking hittable pitches, making adjustments and consistently making things happen. However, he did struggle a bit in SEC play in 2026 (.234/.302/.508) and hasn't hit too much over two summers in the Cape Cod League either (.225/.330/.351), potentially creating some pause when projecting his offensive upside. He's likely a 10-15 home run type who can get on base at a reasonable clip, a profile that could potentially play every day near the bottom of the order. Defensively, he's a bit stretched at shortstop and may fit better at second base, where his fringy athleticism and arm strength will be less exposed. The Marlins love his style of play and believe he will swing his way to a regular big league role as an offensive-minded second baseman.

4-115: OF Wessley Roberson, Glynn Academy [GA]
Slot value: $677,500. Signing bonus: $1.2 million ($522,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: #175.
After going at or below slot with each of their first four picks, the Marlins began to unload those savings on outfielder Wessley Roberson, an exciting athlete out of the same Glynn Academy in South Georgia that produced Adam Wainwright in 2000. He'll sign away from an LSU commitment for $1.2 million, roughly the value of the Marlins' #71 pick, and instead head about six hours south to Miami on I-95. For now, Roberson stands out for his hitting ability. He is a plus hitter who has hit everywhere he has gone, running excellent contact rates and fiercely working at bats to force his way on base. Working from a wide setup, he unloads a quick, effective left handed swing that gets the barrel long through the zone and effectively follows through the baseball. At this point, the power is below average as he waits to grow into his skinny six foot frame, but the swing should help him tap potentially fringe-average power as he fills out a little more and help him reach double digit home run totals. He is an easy plus runner who torments opposing pitchers and plays a mean center field, where he should stick in pro ball and provide value. While he was not highly ranked on most public boards, ESPN being the only place I saw that put him in the top 200, the Marlins are in love with his hitting ability and see him flying through the minors quicker than most high schoolers.

5-147: LHP Trey Beard, Florida State
Slot value: $496,400. Signing bonus: $493,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #134. ESPN: #198.
Heading back to the Sunshine State, Miami continued its roll of high-floor starting pitchers with Trey Beard. A native of Dunedin just north of St. Petersburg, he began his college career at FAU where he made thirty starts over two seasons, including an excellent sophomore season in Boca in which he went 7-1 with a 3.14 ERA and a sharp 118/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings. That caught the attention of the Florida State staff, which brought him back up north to Tallahassee where he again found success with another 97 strikeouts in 68 innings. Like Ethan Kleinschmit and Ryan Peterson, Beard doesn't throw very hard, sitting in the low 90's and touching 94 at peak. The fastball is effective when he locates it, but it gets hit pretty consistently when it catches too much plate. He shows a big 12-6 curveball with nice depth and can also turn it over into a fringy slider, but his best pitch is a plus changeup with parachute action seemingly slowing down as it heads towards the plate. Beard works from a very high slot that puts tough angle on his pitches, accentuating the vertical action on his curveball and changeup especially. In order to remain a starter, he'll need to maintain his above average command to keep his fastball and slider effective multiple times through a lineup. Shifting to the bullpen would hopefully get his fastball closer to the mid 90's and allow him to lean a little more on his changeup, but the Marlins would prefer his breaking balls take a step forward to become real weapons.

8-235: 1B Rintaro Sasaki, Stanford
Slot value: $239,200. Signing bonus: $210,200 ($29,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
The Marlins are buying low on one of the most legendary bats in Japanese amatuer history. Rintaro Sasaki hit 140 home runs, 140 home runs (one hundred and forty), in four years at Hanamaki Higashi High School in northern Japan, where his father previously coached Shohei Ohtani. Personally, I had to Google it and verify it in several different places before I could even begin to believe the 140 number was real. I still can't quite fathom how a kid could hit 140 home runs in high school, no matter how many times I repeat it in this writeup. The top prospect (obviously) in the 2024 NPB draft in Japan, he instead made shockwaves by withdrawing to attend Stanford. He arrived in Palo Alto with great fanfare as Baseball America's Preseason National Freshman of the Year, but has unfortunately hit to middling results in his two years stateside. He did take a step forward from his freshman (.269/.377/.413, 7 HR, 19.9% K) to his sophomore (.262/.403/.549, 16 HR, 19.4% K) seasons, but ultimately fell short of the towering expectations placed on him. Still, he finds himself here in the eighth round with the chance to recapture his former luster under a pro development program. Listed at a Prince Fielder-esque 6'1", 270 pounds, he stands out for one unsurprising thing: power. Sasaki has Hulk-like strength that produces elite exit velocities, making for plus-plus raw power that produced some of the highest exit velocities at the MLB Draft Combine in June, where he was one of just three hitters to send a baseball over 450 feet. In high school, he could meet a pitch anywhere in the zone and, if he made even decent contact, send it deep into the trees, parking lots, or whatever they put behind high school fields in Japan. At Stanford, more advanced pitching stayed off his barrel more frequently and limited his game power to merely plus, though he seemed much more comfortable in 2026 than he did in 2025. The Marlins believe the difficult transition across continents as a teenager may have slowed his development, and that in their system he can continue trending in the right direction perhaps faster than other college bats. He's just 21 years old still and won't turn 22 until the start of the 2027 season. Sasaki will of course have to hit, as he's a bottom of the scale athlete that will be limited to first base at best. Had he not signed, he could have gone back to Japan to play for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

9-265: 3B Nic Tolbert, Oktaha HS [OK]
Slot value: $210,200. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($387,300 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
With more savings to unload, Miami went for a sleeper signing in Nic Tolbert, a small town power bat from just outside of Muskogee, Oklahoma. Previously committed to Wichita State, he signed for late fourth round money (pick #128 value) here in the ninth round and will get to work pushing towards his lofty ceiling. Listed at 6'6", 210 pounds, he looks the part of a future big league slugger once he adds 20-30 pounds of good weight to that lanky frame. Unlike many tall sluggers, he has a direct left handed swing that helps him naturally tap his power rather than selling out and swinging through hittable pitches, providing a clear development path for the Marlins. He is untested against higher level arms and may take some time to work slowly up the minor league rungs, carrying plenty of risk as he makes the jump from Eastern Oklahoma to the pros. Defensively, Tolbert has seen time all over the field and comes to the Marlins as a third baseman, but could realistically land at any corner spot, infield or outfield. There is a wide array of outcomes here and a wide gap between his ceiling and his floor but if the Marlins think he'll hit, it's a worthwhile gamble for fourth round money. He is a little bit old for the class, turning 19 a few weeks after the draft.

12-355: RHP Bane Barker, Sandalwood HS [FL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($347,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
With unspent bonus pool money remaining heading into the back half of the draft, Miami came back to the Sunshine State to bring in Bane Barker, an uncommitted high school arm who signed for fifth round money here in the twelfth round. A Jacksonville native who attended powerhouse Sandalwood High School on the east side of the city, he is a late bloomer and a major project whom the Marlins believe is only scratching the surface of his potential. The fastball only sat in the mid 80's a year ago, only scraping the upper 80's over the summer, but he started throwing harder in the fall and eventually started touching 92-93 at peak, though the average velocity remains closer to 90. He adds a nice downer curveball that can disappear when he spins it right in addition to a solid slider and a developing changeup. The 6'8" righty is extraordinarily projectable, with the Marlins likely to do significant work cleaning up his delivery as he grows into his extra large frame and develops physically. For now, the command is fringy but Miami will be patient as he acclimates to pro ball. Much like Nic Tolbert, there is a massive gap between his floor and his ceiling and both are equally unproven, so this is really a lottery ticket purchased with the extra bonus pool money.

20-595: C Joey Lawson, Bishop Verot HS [FL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $196,500 ($46,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Miami finished things off with a surprising signing, grabbing one last Sunshine Stater in Joey Lawson. A product of Bishop Verot High School in Fort Myers, he seemed a long shot to sign away from a UNC commitment but Miami got it done as one of their final signings of the class and they didn't break the bank either. Lawson was a decorated two-way player who actually had significantly more interest as a pitching prospect, where his fastball reached 94 and his curveball looked like a hammer strikeout pitch. To me, he looked more natural on the mound as well, but Miami believes in the bat and will take the time to develop him that way. He's physically developed at 6'2", 215 pounds, showing natural power from the right side and creating plenty of leverage with his swing path. He's a heady ballplayer who looks to be reasonably advanced as a hitter, giving him a good shot to develop into an all-around threat at the plate. Lawson mostly played first base at Bishop Verot when he wasn't pitching, but Miami looks like they're going to try him out behind the plate. His short arm action on the mound looks conducive to the position and his sturdy frame appears a fit as well, making for an interesting experiment. Sticking behind the plate would of course buy more slack for the bat to develop and it's a nice bargain for just under $200,000. Lawson is a bit old for the class, having turned 19 a few weeks before the draft. If hitting doesn't work out, he can always fall back on pitching.

Friday, October 2, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Texas Rangers

Full list of draftees

The Rangers pushed their chips in and went all upside in this draft, leaning heavily on high school picks that collected over $10 million of the less than $12 million in bonuses Texas handed out. The class is highlighted by a pair of electric prep lefties in Gio Rojas and Brody Bumila, both of which could have been gone in the top fifteen picks had the draft happened a few months earlier. In addition to potential impact bat and another prep star in Connor Comeau, Texas ultimately punted rounds six through ten by spending a total of $17,500 on five seniors and saving about $1.3 million in the process. With a little bit left over going into the back half of the draft, they spread it around on four players who signed above the allotted $150,000 for that part of the draft including two in-region preps in Jordan Hawkins and Landon Brewers. It's a high risk, high reward class with the wealth concentrated at the top on big gambles Rojas, Comeau, and Bumila.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-16: LHP Gio Rojas, Stoneman Douglas HS [FL]
Slot value: $5.05 million. Signing bonus: $4.6 million ($451,900 below slot value).
My rank: #9. MLB Pipeline: #8. ESPN: #21.
The Rangers started off their class with a really savvy pick, grabbing the clear-cut best high school pitching prospect in the class for nearly half a million dollars below slot value, coming in between the values of the #18 and #19 picks. He brings huge upside with an electric left arm and more to tap into, giving the Rangers a potential ace. The fastball sits in the mid 90's with running action and touches 98 at peak, certainly with more in the tank. He misses a ton of bats with a plus slider that dives across the plate with good sweep, while he has begun incorporating his fading changeup more with a chance to get to above average in time. It's a tremendous frame at 6'4", 195 pounds, and he uses it well with a simple, natural delivery that enables him to hold his velocity effortlessly. Rojas fills up the zone well for a teenage lefty fireballer, all together giving him a really attractive floor to go with his upside. The Rangers will streamline his delivery a little bit more to bring even greater power out of his left arm, tweaking the secondaries to bring them to the next level while letting him develop physically and add yet even more. The South Florida native is a player development dream combining present stuff, size, athleticism, command, and handedness at just 19 years old. The Rangers do well with these types and could get him moving through the system relatively quickly. Rojas reminds me a bit of a left handed Seth Hernandez, although down a half tier from his Pirates counterpart. He had previously been committed to Miami.

2-54: SS Connor Comeau, Anderson HS [TX]
Slot value: $1.81 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($694,700 above slot value).
My rank: #39. MLB Pipeline: #55. ESPN: #66.
Coming back to the Lone Star State, Connor Comeau gets the value of the #40 pick here at #54 to sign away from a Texas A&M commitment. He's another projectable prep, having starred at Anderson High School in Austin where he really caught some steam in his senior year. Comeau makes a ton of contact from the left side, naturally driving the ball on a line and in the air with consistency across numerous events and back home in Austin. Listed at 6'4", 180 pounds, his power is fringier for now but it is laughably easy to dream on him growing into average or even above average power in time. He already has the feel for the barrel and the natural ability to get the ball in the air, so any strength gains (of which there should be plenty) will go straight to his game power output. The projection is accentuated even further by his extreme youth, not turning 18 until a month after the draft and coming in over a full year younger than Gio Rojas. In the field, Comeau has a plus arm that puts plenty of carry on the ball across the diamond, giving him a great shot to stick on the left side of the infield. That may be more likely at third base than shortstop, where his heavier feet limit his range and give him below average speed even before he bulks up. Texas believes they're buying into a potential above average hitter with above average power, a bat that will absolutely play at third base but will even provide significant value in right field if he moves off the dirt. With guys like Corey Seager, Josh Jung, and Wyatt Langford in tow and prospects like Sebastian Walcott and Josh Owens, the Rangers are beginning to build a core of tall, balanced hitters in both the contact and power departments. Comeau fits right in.

3-89: LHP Brody Bumila, Bishop Feehan HS [MA]
Slot value: $900,800. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($1.85 million above slot value).
My rank: #48. MLB Pipeline: #23. ESPN: #65.
If the Rangers shot for the moon with Gio Rojas, they're getting an even more extreme version in Brody Bumila. A relative unknown earlier in his prep career, he exploded onto the scene early in his senior season when he came out pumping triple digits from the left side, completely swallowing southern Massachusetts high school competition. If that wasn't enough to grab scouts' attention, he did it while standing 6'9" with massive extension. Unfortunately, he sustained that success almost long enough to cement himself in the first round, hearing his name as high as the the Rangers' first pick, but he didn't look right towards the end of the season and wound up hurting his UCL. The rest of his profile is relatively raw, not unexpected from small town New England. His slider is still searching for its identity, coming in like a low 80's slurve at times and more like a low 90's cutter at others, though neither stand out as big league out pitches yet. His changeup is a bit more advanced than you might expect, showing great fade when he gets it right, though his feel comes and goes. Bumila's delivery is relatively raw, as is his in-zone command, though to his credit he did a very nice job this spring of just laying it over the plate and daring hitters to catch up to it (which in fact, they could not). He's an excellent athlete for his size, starring on the basketball court and repeating that raw delivery nicely. Beyond the athleticism, height, handedness, and triple digit velocity, Bumila has earned praise for his coachability and seems primed to explode under pro development. Texas will be very careful rehabbing his UCL injury (he had internal brace surgery a year ago) and combined with his rawness, he likely won't see Globe Life Field for a very long time. The eighteen year old will need to first get healthy, then streamline his delivery and find a better breaking ball. Once he gets there, though, he has every bit of the ceiling of first rounder Gio Rojas if with significantly more risk. Bumila was on his way to the Lone Star State anyways with a Texas commitment, but instead his $2.75 million bonus comes in right around the value of the #36 pick.

4-117: RHP Hudson Calhoun, Mississippi
Slot value: $664,500. Signing bonus: $498,375 ($166,125 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #235. ESPN: unranked.
Texas began to save money in the fourth round, where they also took their first college player in Hudson Calhoun. He barely saw the mound as a freshman, gradually took on a larger role as a sophomore, then stepped forward as one of the Rebels' more trusted arms as a junior in 2026 before finding himself in the fourth round. Nothing about the stuff pops out quite yet, but the Rangers see a broad skillset they can mold into a big league starter. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's with cut, touching 98 at times and setting up a full arsenal of secondaries. He has had success with his above average cutter, which he can loosen into a truer slider as well. Calhoun also shows a 12-6 curveball and a fading changeup, the latter of which is his only pitch with arm-side movement. The 6'4" righty still has projection left in the tank, though his command is fringy to this point and the Rangers will try to simplify the delivery just a little bit. While he has been almost exclusively a reliever in college, the Rangers may want to give starting a shot. He'll have to bring the command long and take a step forward with one or two of his secondaries, or if not he could continue to function well in a long relief role and perhaps focus on a narrower arsenal. Overall, he's not as  far off from an impact pitching prospect as you might think.

8-237: SS Kolby Branch, Georgia
Slot value: $236,100. Signing bonus: $7,500 ($228,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
By the middle and end of the draft's first half, the Rangers were in full money saving mode giving sixth and seventh rounders Aidan Brainard and Caden Aoki just $2,500 each to sign. Kolby Branch got slightly more at $7,500, but again, it's a massive savings for Texas. Branch is a DFW boy who grew up in Lucas, just 25 miles northeast of Dallas, where he attended Lovejoy High School but graduated a year late at nearly 19.5 years old in 2022. Beginning his college career at Baylor, he immediately found the starting lineup and hit .325/.430/.509 as a twenty year old freshman. He transferred to Georgia after that lone season and proceeded to blast fifty home runs in three years, including the most memorable of his career on June 17th as he went deep in his final college at bat – and rounded the bases right by his younger brother Kyle. At the time, he may not have known if he would be hanging up the cleats for good, but now he'll continue the dream with his hometown team. Branch isn't huge at 5'11", but his direct right handed swing and compact frame has helped him tap all of his average raw power in games. While he controlled the strike zone extremely well as a freshman back in 2023, he hasn't faired as well in that regard since jumping to the SEC with his strikeout rate jumping from an impressive 14.8% as a freshman to 24.8% over his three years at Georgia. The bat to ball may never be better than fringy, so he'll need to continue to tap that average power with wood in order to stay viable offensively. Fortunately, Branch is a strong defender who can handle any infield position with range, arm strength, and defensive savvy to make managers happy. He will turn 24 just before the start of spring training next year, so he'll want to hit his way up quickly as a potential utility infielder.

11-327: OF Jordan Hawkins, Carl Albert HS [OK]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
With a little bit of money left over after their radical saving in rounds six through ten, Texas spent the rest of it on a pair of young for the class, in-region preps. The first was outfielder Jordan Hawkins, a Midwest City, Oklahoma native who starred at Carl Albert High School, alma mater of J.T. Realmuto. Hawkins flew extremely under the radar up in the Oklahoma City suburbs, committing to Barton JC in Kansas during his senior year after receiving little interest from major Division I programs. Listed at 6'3", 185 pounds, he has a frame to dream on even if he is still filling it out. He's a switch hitter and Texas loves the way his swing works from both sides, showing a knack for line drives and the bat speed present to tack on significant power as he fills out his wiry frame. It's below average power at this point that will take a minute to manifest, but Texas has long shown a willingness to be patient with these types of prospects. Hawkins is a plus runner who will use his speed as a weapon on both sides of the ball, again especially after some pro development time. Adding to his upside, he is young for a graduating senior and was still seventeen on draft day, so the Rangers have plenty of time to mold this excellent athlete into a sleeper prospect and future impact player.

15-447: RHP Landon Brewer, Minden HS [LA]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($47,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
One of the top prep arms in North Louisiana for some time now, Landon Brewer had been committed to stay local and play at Louisiana Tech until the Rangers popped him in the fifteenth round and gave him nearly an extra $50,000 on top of the typical $150,000 bonus at that spot in the draft. He has continued to come along throughout his prep career, now sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while showing a sharp curveball and developing changeup. Texas loves his explosive athleticism and whippy arm on the mound, dreaming on potential velocity gains as he fills out his still-growing 6'3" frame. Brewer repeats his uptempo delivery consistently and has a nice baseline as a strike thrower, giving him sneaky upside as he continues to add velocity and refine the rougher edges of his game. Like Jordan Hawkins, he's relatively young for a high school senior and turned eighteen shortly before the draft, giving him all the more time to put things together as a potential big league starting pitcher. Instead of heading 45 minutes east to Ruston for college, he'll go about three and a half hours west on I-20 to Arlington to join the Rangers.

Friday, September 25, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Houston Astros

Full list of draftees

The Astros had a plethora of draft capital, picking up the #28 pick from Hunter Brown's third place Cy Young finish as well as the #133 pick as compensation for losing Framber Valdez. They used that money to bring in a haul, and did so by moving money around with many of their picks. First rounder Logan Hughes signed nearly a million and a half under slot value, while PPI pick Jack Radel gave them another $363,600 in savings and ninth and tenth rounders Ryan Pruitt and Tazwell Butler received just a paltry $2,500 each to create about another $400,000 in savings. Houston deployed that money with a big $2 million bonus on third rounder Keon Johnson as well as a massive $3 million bonus on fourth round compensatory pick Beau Peterson, matching Radel's bonus over one hundred picks earlier. In all, I think dollar for dollar the talent brought in was fairly underwhelming, though that's not to say I'm not a big fan of several of these guys. Much hinges on the two high school bats, Johnson and Peterson, and both come with questions. Similarly, Hughes and Peterson are both tremendous bats with major positional questions. This is a hitter-heavy class but when it came to arms, Houston focused more on floor than upside and should find several starters to fill out the back of their future rotation.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-17: OF Logan Hughes, Texas Tech
Slot value: $4.87 million. Signing bonus: $3.41 million ($1.46 million below slot value).
My rank: #35. MLB Pipeline: #42. ESPN: #29.
The Astros almost always target a college bat with strong data with their first pick, so Logan Hughes is absolutely true to form. Six of the Astros' past seven first round picks, save for Xavier Neyens in 2025, have been college bats, though none have become impact players in Houston. Hughes hopes to buck that trend and do it while bringing massive savings to Houston, signing for just over the value of the #28 pick here at #17. He played one year at Stetson near his hometown in Central Florida, where he parlayed a successful freshman season into an opportunity to transfer to Texas Tech. He took Lubbock by storm hitting .327/.411/.697 with 19 home runs as a sophomore in 2025, then exploded for a .375/.510/.735 line with 18 home runs as a junior in 2026 to steadily push his name up boards. Hughes can hit, period. He is an extremely professional hitter that ran an excellent 12.9% strikeout rate in 2026 while walking nearly 20% of the time, consistently controlling his at bats no matter the competition. Even in Big 12 play against the conference's best weekend arms, he still kept his strikeout rate at just 12%, showing strong bat to ball to go with his excellent approach. While he's not huge at 5'11", he packs plenty of strength into his shorter frame evidenced by 37 home runs in two seasons. The exit velocity data backs it up as well, with the Orlando-area product profiling for above average power in pro ball that could produce 20-25 home runs per season to go along with high on-base percentages. He rarely tries to do too much, instead using the whole field effectively without sacrificing that power. Nearly all of Hughes' value is tied up in his bat, as he is a below average runner with an arm to match, profiling as a fringy left fielder in the best case scenario if he doesn't have to move to first base eventually. At 5'11", he's relatively short for a first baseman as well, so there is a non-zero chance that he winds up a long term DH. His bat alone would put him in the first round, but the discount comes with the lack of defensive value.

PPI-28: RHP Jack Radel, Notre Dame
Slot value: $3.36 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($363,600 below slot value).
My rank: #42. MLB Pipeline: #44. ESPN: #33.
The Astros picked up an extra first round pick due to Hunter Brown's third place finish in the 2025 AL Cy Young voting, using it on Notre Dame righty Jack Radel. Radel is a good old fashioned country hard baller with a traditional profile that checks all the boxes analytically as well. He has spent three years in the rotation at Notre Dame and tossed 211 innings, improving each year including an excellent 2026 that pushed him quickly up draft boards. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 with ride, effectively blowing past bats even in hitter-friendly college baseball conditions. He throws a very effective slider with late downer action to miss bats, while his hard cutter splits the difference to tie things together. Radel also shows a solid average curveball and changeup, giving him a full arsenal which he deploys effectively. The 6'5", 250 pound righty has plenty of size, looking the part of a future big league innings eater that should have no difficulty pitching deep into games and holding up over a long season. He commands his full arsenal well with an easy, repeatable delivery and can continue to carve up a lineup on his third and fourth time through. Radel's lack of a true plus pitch probably caps his ceiling short of that of an ace, but he's as high likelihood of a back-end starter as you'll find in this class with a good shot to become a #3. The Sioux Falls, South Dakota native should stick in big league rotations for a long time with the power fastball, full arsenal, size, and command requisite to handle the heavy workload of a major league starting pitcher.

2-57: LHP Wes Mendes, Florida State
Slot value: $1.68 million. Signing bonus: $1.64 million ($39,700 below slot value).
My rank: #69. MLB Pipeline: #51. ESPN: #83.
Houston makes it back to back high probability starters by bringing in Wes Mendes. Mendes began his career at Ole Miss, where he showed promise as a freshman reliever even if the results were more pedestrian. Transferring closer to home at Florida State, he jumped into the rotation as a sophomore (again to pedestrian results with promising peripherals) before breaking out in 2026, dropping his ERA more than two and a half runs while finishing thirteenth in the nation with 125 strikeouts. Despite the gaudy swing and miss numbers, Mendes is more of a floor guy than a ceiling guy. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 at peak, showing some riding action but sneaking past bats perhaps more often that you'd expect. He has a pair of decent breaking balls in a short slider in the mid to upper 80's that can look like a cutter at times as well as a deeper curveball in the upper 70's, effectively changing speeds on hitters and keeping them off balance even if neither is a wipeout. The Tampa native's best pitch is a plus changeup with tremendous fade, a pitch he sells extremely well and gets hitters flailing more often than they're on time. College hitters have struggled to come up with an answer to the cambio, though of course in pro ball it will be imperative that he finds another gear with one or two of his other pitches to keep hitters from sitting on it. Like Jack Radel, he has a simple, repeatable delivery that helps him fill up the strike zone, though Radel is more over the top while Mendes is three quarters. The 6'1" lefty figures to work his way up as a #4 starter who could develop into more with an extra tick or two on his fastball or a sharper breaking ball. Houston loves the positive trend, growing from volatile freshman with sneaky stuff to reliable starting pitcher with a real weapon in two years' time.

3-93: SS Keon Johnson, First Presbyterian HS [GA]
Slot value: $846,900. Signing bonus: $2 million ($1.15 million above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #119. ESPN: #99.
After building up over $1.8 million in savings over across their first three picks, Houston unloaded more than half of those savings on Keon Johnson, a bit of a sleeper prospect who didn't rank as highly on draft boards as the money might indicate. Taken here at pick #93, his $2 million signing bonus steering him away from a Vanderbilt commitment is higher than that of Wes Mendes above him and roughly the value of the #50 pick, so he has some real believers in Space City. Johnson has long been a famous name in the 2026 high school class, winning the Georgia Gatorade Player of the Year in 2025 as a junior in one of the more competitive states in the country. He's a ballplayer, plain and simple. He takes strong at bats and uses the whole field effectively, bringing a swagger to the batters' box that exudes confidence with the results to back it up. He has tacked on power in recent years and now projects for home run totals in the teens, which will pair nicely with high on-base percentages driven by his patient approach. The operation centers around strong hips, which get the hands going and can even pull the back leg off the ground when he coils up. It's possible the Astros will look to streamline things a little bit to get him more direct to the ball, which could add to the well-rounded offensive profile. The Macon native is a reliable defender on the dirt, showing well at shortstop with clean actions and solid arm strength that should keep him at the six. If he moves to third base, he should be above average there with solid instincts and feel. He's more of a fringy runner but does enough things well that that shouldn't be an issue. While Johnson lacks a standout tool, the Astros are confident in the broader skill set and believe the ballplayer will continue to add up to more than the sum of his tools, taking to pro ball quickly with an advanced all-around game.

4-121: SS Kam Durnin, Missouri
Slot value: $638,800. Signing bonus: $636,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
This is a real sleeper for Houston, one who could provide significant impact despite going unranked on most major boards and falling outside the top 300 at Baseball America. Kam Durnin spent two years at Wichita State, where he posted modest offensive numbers but held down a starting role with strong defense. After exploding for a huge summer in the Appalachian League in 2025 and winning its player of the year award, he caught the attention of his home state Missouri Tigers and transferred. Despite the jump in competition, he took to SEC pitching extremely well and slashed .329/.438/.570, way up from the .251/.352/.372 he posted in 2025 against inferior competition at Wichita State. Durnin grades out really well under the hood, which backs up the 2026 breakout and points to continued gains in pro ball. He is a very patient hitter which served him well in his transition to the SEC, taking strong at bats and attacking hittable pitches when he gets them. His modest nine home runs in 2026 matched his 2024 and 2025 totals combined, but he gets great torque in his operation and the exit velocity data is solid, pointing to potentially average power at the next level. It's a solid all-around offensive profile, aided significantly by a strong defensive profile as well. He's smooth in the dirt with clean actions, solid range, and enough arm strength to make it work, making for a high likelihood shortstop projection going forward. This is a profile that plays much closer to the fourth round selection than it does to the poor showing on public rankings.

4C-133: IF Beau Peterson, Mill Valley HS [KS]
Slot value: $569,600. Signing bonus: $3 million ($2.43 million above slot value).
My rank: #102. MLB Pipeline: #97. ESPN: #126.
With one of the largest over slot bonuses of the entire draft, the Astros poured much of their savings and their permitted overage into Beau Peterson, one of the better high school bats in the class even if he came with some questions. The $3 million bonus was roughly the value of the #33 pick, pulling him away from a Texas commitment if only to a slightly different destination in the Lone Star State. He is actually a very similar draft prospect to Logan Hughes, with all the added ceiling (and risk) of coming from the high school ranks. Peterson is listed at 6'3", 195 pounds, already coming with big league size as a teenager and showing an ideal power hitter's frame that looks primed to continue to add strength. Right now, he is a hit-over-power type by choice even if he's likely to be a power hitter in time. He's a disciplined hitter that deploys a clean left handed swing that doesn't try to do too much, naturally lofting the ball to all fields for extra bases. As he gets stronger and starts to swing with more intent, that power should grow into at least above average if not plus, meaning he could be an above average hitter with plus power at ceiling. Peterson shares similarities to Hughes not just in the box but in the field as well, where he is a below average runner with heavy feet at third base. His plus arm (he's been up to 94 on the mound) gives him a shot to stick at third base if he can improve his footwork and range a little bit, though first base or right field may be in his future. The Kansas City-area product is slightly old for the class and turned 19 shortly after the draft, but the Astros think his bat is so advanced and his ceiling so high that the age won't work against him. He could find himself hitting back to back with Hughes in the middle of that Houston order in just a few years.

5-153: RHP Gavin Eddy, California
Slot value: $467,700. Signing bonus: $297,500 ($170,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
After the big splash on Beau Peterson, the Astros went right back to saving and got fifth rounder Gavin Eddy for seventh round money. Eddy sat out his freshman season and then worked as an oft-used swingman as a redshirt freshman in 2025, though his 5.74 ERA and sub-20% strikeout rate did not scream future pro. However, he took a big step forward as a redshirt sophomore in 2026, slashing his ERA to 2.87 while pushing his strikeout rate to 26.9% as a full time starter. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 94, unremarkable velocity, but sneaks by bats with some late hop. His best pitch is a short, tight, downer slider in the low 80's that gets most of his strikeouts, though his changeup is behind and mainly focuses on the first two. The 6'5" righty is plenty physical, clocking in at a solid 225 pounds with the look of a durable big league starting pitcher. His smooth, simple delivery lends itself to above average command, further helping him project as a back-end starter. Eddy's next order of business is adding a changeup, and from there, it's a smooth path to a #5 spot in the rotation.

16-481: C Rashawn Galloway, Texas State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $50,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
The Astros drafted three players out of DFW in Ryan Pruitt (Trophy Club -> USF), Peyton Fiene (McKinney -> Odessa JC), and Ben Tryon (Southlake -> Dallas Baptist), with Rashawn Galloway the only representative from the southern half of the state. A native of Boerne just outside of San Antonio, he spent four years at nearby Texas State but the first three were wholly unremarkable with just three home runs across 84 games. He found his stroke as a senior in 2026 with a massive breakout season, slashing .318/.368/.580 with 12 home runs and a Texas State record 27 doubles, smashing the old Bobcats record of 22 with nearly a month left in the season. Galloway has a whippy, powerful right handed swing and the ball jumps off his bat with impressive force, helping him tap power to all fields and regularly drive the ball into the gaps with some mustard. He makes a ton of contact and ran an elite 8.1% strikeout rate in 2026, though his excellent bat to ball also makes it hard to draw walks as he clocked in at just 6.3%. Galloway's contact/power combination is envious even as a right handed hitting mid major bat who was nearly 23 on draft day, and some tweaks to his approach could get him moving through the system in a hurry. Drafted as a catcher, he has seen time all over the field but was used mostly in right field for Texas State. Houston would love to get him back behind the plate where his offensive profile would really stand out and make him a steal at just $50,000 in the sixteenth round. If he stays in the outfield, a right/right corner profile is tough to overcome especially now that he has turned 23 barely into his pro career, but he could surprise people.

Saturday, September 19, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

The Reds put together a relatively hitter-friendly draft class, especially with three straight college bats to start things off, in an effort to inject some offensive impact into its system. They got things started with one of the most talented players in the entire class in Justin Lebron, whose ceiling rivals any player in this draft, before looking for safer, more well-rounded profiles from there on out. They played their bonus pool relatively straightforwardly, paying up a little bit for Lebron, handing fifth rounder Dylan Bowen a third round bonus to steer him away from Oklahoma State, and going a little over on sophomore two-way player Kenny Ishikawa in the thirteenth with a sixth round bonus. In doing so, they were able to give every player drafted in the first ten rounds at least $147,500, avoiding the $10,000 senior sign that has become all too common in the draft.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-18: SS Justin Lebron, Alabama
Slot value: $4.7 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($304,500 above slot value).
My rank: #16. MLB Pipeline: #9. ESPN: #8.
Cincinnati is getting a potential superstar in Justin Lebron. He showed up at Alabama and hit .350/.435/.536 as a true freshman, immediately establishing himself as one of the top talents in the 2026 draft. A big sophomore season did little to damper expectations and he entered the spring a potential top five pick, though an up and down junior year quickly turned him into one of the draft's biggest enigmas. Watching him play, the talent is monumental. It's not just athleticism and upside, but a buttery smoothness that pervades his game on both sides of the baseball and the undeniable look of a big league star. When he's at his best, he looks like the best prospect in the entire draft. The sticking point, however, is consistent results. Lebron's numbers dipped slightly to .277/.386/.534 in 2026, including just .229/.328/.413 in 28 conference games, leaving a wide gap between his ceiling and his floor. He effortlessly produces above average power with an explosive right handed swing, helping him reach double digit home run totals in each of his three seasons at Alabama for a total of 45 in 179 games, and it's easy to dream on that power ticking up further as he fills out his athletic 6'2" frame. After chasing at a high rate over his first two seasons, he actually improved his approach a bit in 2026 but his contact rates remained below what you'd look for in a first round bat. He struck out 19.6% of the time on the year and 21.6% of the time in SEC play, neither number alarmingly high but again, a bit above what you'd like to see. The approach comes and goes, so Cincinnati will hope to lock him in with more consistency as he faces better and better pitching. The story is similar on defense. Lebron looks the part of a future Gold Glove defender at shortstop and if you catch him on the right set of a dozen ground balls, that's how you'd project him. He has the quickness, body control, and plus arm strength to make throws from any angle, making for a walking highlight reel type of profile at the next level. Like his offense, consistency is a sticking point. The Miami-area product can try to do too much at times, leading to far more errors than you'd expect from such a talented defender. On top of it all, he is a plus-plus runner who stole 42 bags in 43 tries this spring, good for a wicked 97.7% success rate and making him a menace to opposing defenses. Lebron could become a legitimate star or flare out in the minors depending on how the Reds are able to channel his monumental talent.

2-58: SS Eric Becker, Virginia
Slot value: $1.64 million. Signing bonus: $1.65 million ($12,300 above slot value).
My rank: #50. MLB Pipeline: #41. ESPN: #23.
Despite playing the same position, Eric Becker is the polar opposite prospect from Justin Lebron. The older brother of Mariners prospect Nick Becker, himself selected in almost the exact same spot (#57 in 2025), Eric hit campus at UVA and was an immediate contributor from day one. He hit .366/.459/.637 over 95 games in his first two seasons, cementing himself as one of the most consistent bats in the ACC and positioning himself as a potential first round pick in 2026. Becker hit .317/.427/.533 in what was more of a "good" than a "great" junior year this spring, with some publications (notably ESPN above) holding on to him as a first round prospect but others dropping him to the second round, where he eventually went to the Reds. While Lebron has tools galore and the whole, for now, is less than the sum of his parts, Becker is a high baseball IQ, jack of all trades, master of none type who figures to provide steady performance for Cincinnati. He makes plenty of contact from a simple left handed swing designed to spray line drives around the field, with a conscious plan of attack that helps do damage all around the zone. While he brings prototypical size at 6'3", 190 pounds, his skinny frame doesn't figure to add too much weight and his fringy power appears destined to stay that way. Becker can turn on the ball when he needs to and shows some healthy exit velocity data because he so often makes flush contact on the barrel, helping him project for 10-15 home runs per season in the big leagues. He chases at a high clip and batting average, rather than on-base percentage, will always be his strongest slash leg unless he cuts that down significantly. On the other side of the ball, he is a steady defender who has seen time all over the infield. The New York native should have what it takes to stick at shortstop, which certainly takes pressure off hitting for more power, and can easily fill in with average defense at second or third base. Again the opposite of Lebron, he won't wow with the flashy plays or plus speed but can anchor an infield with his feel for the game.

CBB-70: 1B Mulivai Levu, UCLA
Slot value: $1.22 million. Signing bonus: $1.1 million ($125,600 below slot value).
My rank: #94. MLB Pipeline: #62. ESPN: #100.
Moving off of shortstops, Cincinnati makes it three college bats in a row with UCLA first baseman Mulivai Levu. Like Justin Lebron and Eric Becker, he has been a starter since his freshman year but unlike those two, 2026 was his best. In fact, he improved significantly in each of his three seasons, slashing .291/.355/.455 with six home runs as a freshman, .320/.389/.522 with 12 home runs as sophomore, and finally .340/.441/.622 with 18 home runs as a junior. Levu is a sturdy 6'1" with above average power that he has tapped more and more in games as he has improved his approach. Just as with his slash line and his home run totals, his strikeout rates have dropped significantly each season from 27.3% to 15.3% to 11.1%. While he is still an aggressive hitter, he shows strong bat to ball despite some bat wrap in his right handed swing for possibly the best contact/power combination in this Reds draft class. Levu has played mostly first base thus far and he'll probably stay there long term, he's a much better athlete than he looks as a passionate pickleball and frisbee golf player as well as flame-twirler. Some evaluators projected him to at least be worth a shot at third base, where he has enough arm strength and fringy footwork, but at first base he should be an above average defender overall. The Southern California native has a chance to develop into a 20 homer, high average bat, but he'll need to learn more patience at the plate and clear the high offensive bar for first basemen.

3-94: RHP Ty Horn, Nebraska
Slot value: $833,800. Signing bonus: $647,500 ($186,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #234. ESPN: #138.
Ty Horn seems to be close to putting it all together, but he hasn't quite gotten there. He didn't pitch too much as a freshman, then jumped into the rotation as a sophomore to solid, if unspectacular, results. Expectations were high entering 2026 and he had a few strong starts at the beginning of the season, but his grip began to slip as the season moved on and he spent some time in the Nebraska bullpen. He ultimately set career-bests in ERA (4.03), WHIP (1.23), strikeout rate (24.8%), and walk rate (7.4%) but didn't fully take the step forward scouts had hoped for. Still, the Reds liked the full package and envision that next step coming soon. He shows a low 90's fastball that gets up to 95-96 as a starter or as high as 98 in short stints out of the bullpen. There is a full set of decent secondaries including a slider, cutter, curveball, and changeup. Each has its own unique movement pattern even if none stand out, though his feel to sell his changeup at this age is a nice feather in his cap. Horn doesn't have pinpoint command but throws strikes with his whole arsenal and can pitch deep into games as a starter, though he can get hit hard over the heart of the plate. There is some projection on his 6'2" frame with solid athleticism, and added strength could help him add a few ticks to his fastball or some sharpness to his offspeed stuff that could be a game changer. The Wichita-area native will likely never be an ace, rather profiling as a back-end starter or long reliever. Any step forward in his velocity, offspeed stuff, or in-zone command should get him to that ceiling. He gives Cincinnati a bit of a discount, too, signing for fourth round money here in the third round.

4-122: LHP Ethan Norby, East Carolina
Slot value: $632,500. Signing bonus: $630,000 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #167. ESPN: #93.
In a lot of ways, Ethan Norby is the opposite of Ty Horn. After a successful freshman season as a swingman, he took a step forward as a sophomore in 2025 with an excellent 32.3% strikeout rate but really caught scouts' attention with a nineteen strikeout performance against eventual National Champion Coastal Carolina in just his fourth start of the season. In his draft year in 2026, he showed similar stuff but didn't take the next step, so he finds himself here in the fourth round. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95, not overpowering velocity but enough to get the job done as a lefty. The slider steals the show, diving across the plate as he throws it with conviction and leans on it heavily. He can turn it over into a cutter that plays well off the slider, while the changeup will need some work in pro ball. The 5'10" lefty lacks prototypical size as a starting pitcher, but as he throws from a low arm slot and creates flat angle on his pitches, it creates a unique look especially from the left side. Norby also repeats his crossfire delivery well and controls the strike zone well, lending hope that he can remain a starter despite a very slider-reliant profile. Norby will probably need to find another tick on his fastball and bring his changeup along if he wants to stick in the rotation, but the slider gives him a high ceiling either in a rotation or bullpen role. You might recognize the last name from his older brother, Connor, currently filling in around the infield for the Rockies.

5-154: SS Dylan Bowen, Hanover Central HS [IN]
Slot value: $463,200. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($534,300 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #105. ESPN: #123.
Coming back to the Midwest, Cincinnati made their biggest over-slot splurge on Dylan Bowen, handing him third round money to forgo an Oklahoma State commitment. A product of Northwest Indiana on the outskirts of the Chicago suburbs, Bowen has made a name for himself among Midwest scouts with consistent strong hitting performances everywhere he's gone including this spring back home. He uses a simple right handed setup to see the ball deep and send it back where it's pitched, using the whole field effectively and overall putting together some of the more professional at bats in the region. As the Chicagoland spring warmed up, he also impressed evaluators by coming out a bit more physical and bumping up some of his supplemental tools. Still hit over power, he now profiles as more fringy in that regard as opposed to below average, with a much better shot at reaching double digit home run totals than perhaps a year ago. Bowen is also a plus runner who will certainly make the most of his plethora of line drives by stretching singles into doubles and doubles into a triples, while his speed and advanced glovework make for a strong shortstop projection. It's a pretty complete package so long as the power continues to come along, with the only knock on his profile being his age. Bowen turned 19 back in January, making him the age of a college freshman playing against high schoolers this spring and putting a bit of an asterisk on the "advanced" asterisk of his profile. Still, the Reds are sold that it would stand out even against junior college competition in his age group, seeing him as very strong middle infield depth beyond Justin Lebron and Eric Becker leading off this class.

6-183: RHP Duncan Marsten, Wake Forest
Slot value: $358,900. Signing bonus: $322,500 ($36,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #194. ESPN: #173.
Duncan Marsten brings a much better combination of stuff and track record than you might expect in the sixth round, especially for a slight discount. He turned heads right at the start of his senior year at famed Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles in 2024 by coming out throwing 99 with crisp secondaries, then ultimately settled in a tick below that and found himself projected in roughly the third round range by July. He priced himself out of the draft and instead crossed the country to Wake Forest, where poor command kept him from making too much of an impact as a freshman. He walked 16.7% of his opponents in the Cape Cod League that summer, but showcased loud stuff and came back to Winston-Salem in 2026 with some buzz. Draft-eligible as a sophomore because he graduated high school at 19 years old, Marsten took a step forward as a sophomore but still struggled enough with command to fall back a few rounds from his high school projection. The LA native sits in the mid 90's and still tickles 99 with his explosive fastball, but the rest of his game is yet to catch up. He throws a tight power slider in the upper 80's as his main secondary offering, but doesn't use his curveball or changeup as much. Additionally, while the 6'3" righty creates good extension and a difficult release point that makes the ball jump on hitters even beyond its velocity, he struggles to repeat his delivery and said release point leading to below average control. That is especially apparent with his secondary stuff, leading to him often falling behind in counts and having to come back over the plate with a fastball to get back into control. More advanced hitters will look for that center-cut fastball and feast on it, even at its impressive velocity, so it will be imperative for Marsten to gain more consistent feel for locating that secondary stuff. If Cincinnati is patient and lets him slowly put things together, there is still mid rotation upside, but the more likely outcome is as a fastball/slider reliever who could reach triple digits in short stints.

8-242: C Brady Neal, Alabama
Slot value: $229,700. Signing bonus: $147,500 ($82,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Brady Neal, like Duncan Marsten, has plenty of track record with scouts. He was a famous prep at IMG Academy in Florida, where he reclassified up a year and earned top 100 interest as a 17 year old senior in 2022. Scouts praised his advanced game at such a young age but he made it to campus at LSU, where he earned a part-time role as an 18 year old freshman in 2023. His bat took a step forward in a larger role in 2024, then he transferred to Alabama in 2025 but struggled mightily at the plate as his slash line dropped from .276/.408/.578 as a sophomore to .219/.373/.336 as a junior. Returning to campus for his senior year in 2026, he bounced all the way back for a career-best .316/.429/.541 slash line in a career-high 61 games, re-establishing himself as a legitimate draft prospect. While the Tallahassee native impressed evaluators with his polish four years ago, he's largely the same player today and lacks a standout tool. Undersized at 5'10", he has a strong approach at the plate that has helped him run a .408 on-base percentage over four years, masking fringier pure bat to ball that may be exploited in pro ball. There is some pop in the profile, enough to keep pitchers honest but unlikely to produce high home run totals with wood bats. Neal has been a catcher for most of his college career but ceded most playing time behind the dish to John Lemm in 2026, instead spending much of his time in the outfield where he looked fringy. He'll move back behind the plate in pro ball, where his average defensive skills and solid athleticism should help his bat profile a little better. Though he's a senior sign, he's the age of a college junior and won't turn 22 until the offseason, putting him on a standard development schedule. Neal profiles as a future backup catcher.

17-512: OF Jack Lausch, Northwestern
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
This is a fun one. Jack Lausch was a superstar athlete at Brother Rice High School in Chicago in basketball, football, and baseball, where he actually hit a walk off home run against Brady Neal's IMG Academy in their shared 2022 senior year. A three star football recruit, he spurned a preferred walk on opportunity at Notre Dame to accept a roster spot locally Northwestern. Early in his college career, he was actually a bigger football star than baseball, working his way up to the starting quarterback job for the Wildcats by his sophomore year and consistently remaining high on the depth chart even in years where he wasn't the outright starter. He didn't play baseball as a freshman or as a sophomore, but got on the field as a junior and earned the starting center field right away. He took another step forward as a senior/second year baseball player after giving up football, slashing .312/.393/.653 with 16 home runs to establish himself as a legitimate draft prospect. Lausch has football size and athleticism at 6'2", 215 pounds, bringing that strength to the diamond in a variety of ways. The power has started to show up and could become a major part of his game, though his approach at the plate remains relatively raw with an elevated 27.8% strikeout rate and a more average 10.7% walk rate. It's a simple, direct left handed swing that produces natural leverage without selling out, so more experience against high level arms and patient development from the Reds organization should help get him closer to a fringy hit tool, though for now it's well below average. He plays a strong center field and can profile in all three outfield spots, which especially as a left handed hitter helps his profile significantly. If Lausch can clean up his approach, which at 22 years old (23 this offseason) isn't necessarily a given, he has a chance to be a useful fourth outfielder with some thump at the plate.

Thursday, September 10, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Guardians

Full list of draftees

The Guardians, as usual, pulled together a very strong class, though it was marred by missing out on second round pick Logan Schmidt. Because of over slot commitments to sixth rounder Deiten Lachance, seventh rounder Savion Sims, and eleventh rounder Jake Bean (especially Sims) and a lack of savings elsewhere, Cleveland was only able to offer Schmidt a hair over slot value to sign away from an LSU commitment, roughly half of what he was looking for. Still, the rest of this pitching-heavy class features a lot of arms with big stuff, a bit of a digression from the pitchability arms they like to target, led by one of the most talented in the country in Liam Peterson. Four bats in a row in rounds three through seven make up the bulk of the offensive upside in this class, led by a pair of speedy, high contact center fielders in Tre Broussard and Lucas Moore. And as usual, Cleveland targeted youth heavily, chasing the high upside that it hopes will bring it back to the top of the AL Central.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-19: RHP Liam Peterson, Florida
Slot value: $4.53 million. Signing bonus: $4.53 million.
My rank: #18. MLB Pipeline: #20. ESPN: #12.
Cleveland started off its draft with a bang, picking up arguably the most talented pitcher in the class. Liam Peterson was a star prep at Calvary Christian High School in the Tampa Bay area, where he joined fellow stars Landen Maroudis (Blue Jays 2023 fourth rounder) and Hunter Dietz (Yankees 2026 first rounder via Arkansas) on one of the best high school pitching staffs in recent memory. He spurned seven figure offers to head to Florida, where he immediately jumped into the rotation as a true freshman and has now made 47 starts totaling 216.2 innings over three seasons. The results have been up and down, but the stuff has not. Peterson starts off with a mid 90's fastball that touches 99 at peak with ride and run, though it can get hit over the plate so he began using a two seamer as well in college. His sharp slider has two-plane bite and looks like an easy plus pitch, diving on hitters late and creating a ton of empty swings. There is an above average curveball in the mix as well, showing nice 12-6 action to steal strikes, while his changeup has flashed above average potential when he locates it but his feel is a tick behind. The 6'5" righty has a prototypical starting pitcher's frame, working from an uptempo delivery, a short stride toward the plate, and a high arm slot. He has long battled inconsistency in the command department, walking 14.6% of his opponents as a freshman and 10.5% as a sophomore before seemingly looking more polished in the fall prior to his junior season. The in-season results were mostly the same, as he finished with a 9.8% walk rate over a career-high 84.1 innings, and it seems to be a different story from game to game. He had three different starts with at least five walks this spring, but also walked a total of just three batters over his final four starts (24.2 innings). Cleveland is picking Peterson with the hopes that they can smooth out his jerky delivery a little bit, hoping to improve the consistency of his release point and pitch with more of an intentioned plan during games. He has perhaps the best combination of ace upside and probability of reaching that ace upside in this class, but comes with significant reliever risk if the command doesn't take several steps forward. The Guardians are some of the best developers of pitching in the game right now, and getting a high-octane arm like Peterson is a great match.

2-59: LHP Logan Schmidt, Ganesha HS [CA]
Slot value: $1.6 million. Signing bonus: did not sign.
My rank: #30. MLB Pipeline: #45. ESPN: #56.
As they tend to do, Cleveland shot for the moon with Logan Schmidt, one of the top high school pitching prospects in the class. Unfortunately they were not able to come to terms, making Schmidt the highest drafted unsigned player in this draft and one of just three in the top ten rounds. He'll head across the country to LSU, where he'll bring a low to mid 90's fastball reaching 98, an above average slider with nice finish, and an above average changeup. It's a pro three pitch mix heading to Baton Rouge from a freshman, even more interesting from the left side, and the Southern California native throws strikes with all three. At 6'4", 210 pounds, he has plenty of projection was still just 17 on draft day, so the sky really is the limit when he reaches campus. Cleveland will unfortunately see none of that until they get to take another shot at him during the 2029 draft.

3-95: OF Tre Broussard, Houston
Slot value: $823,800. Signing bonus: $715,000 ($108,800 below slot value).
My rank: #84. MLB Pipeline: #91. ESPN: #153.
The Guardians have always loved young, athletic, up the middle profiles with strong hit tools and Tre Broussard fits that to a tee. He played one year at powerhouse San Jacinto JC in Houston, then transferred across town to the University of Houston and bumped his batting average from .292 as a sophomore to .344 as a junior in 2026 sandwiched around hitting a strong .296 in the Cape Cod League. He's a high contact hitter with a line drive swing, looking to gash the ball into the gaps rather than turn on it to get it over the fence. As a skinny six footer, there's not much raw power in the tank anyways and his left handed swing lacks high levels of torque, leading to just three home runs in 2026 after slugging just .324 on the Cape. His strikeout rate crept up a little this year and the contact rates were more good than great, which allowed him to fall from some early second round projections to land here as an under slot third rounder. Broussard stands out for plus-plus speed, helping him steal 56 bases in 64 tries across two years at Houston (plus another ten in eleven tries on the Cape). He's a game changer on the bases and plays a mean center field as well, covering plenty of ground and really taking control. With a solid arm as well, he's a plus defender out there with Gold Glove potential who could handle all three outfield positions in a fourth outfielder role. If he can keep making contact with enough impact to keep pitchers honest, he could be a bottom of the order catalyst who plays strong defense and steals a ton of bags. The more likely median projection is that of a speedy fourth outfielder, but his youth (he doesn't turn 21 until more than two months after the draft) is a big bonus.

4-123: 3B Kade Lewis, Wake Forest
Slot value: $626,500. Signing bonus: $626,500.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #104. ESPN: #150.
Kade Lewis is one of the most pro-ready bats you're going to find outside the top one hundred and could move quickly through the minors. He began his career at Butler, where he won 2024 Big East Freshman of the Year honors by hitting .377/.436/.618 with ten home runs in 53 games, then transferred to Wake Forest for the final two years of his college career. The jump to the ACC was no issue for Lewis, as he hit a sizzling .365/.464/.597 with 24 home runs over 119 games in his two seasons (including an even more impressive .394/.482/.670 in ACC play) as one of the most consistent mashers in the conference. The Minnesota native is a pro hitter through and through. He takes very good at bats and has zero challenges handling velocity, also becoming a strong hitter against offspeed stuff as he has developed. He works with a simple left handed swing in which he just tosses the barrel at the ball and drives it around the field with authority, almost looking like he has a magnet buried right there on the sweet spot. The power is closer to average, as his 34 collegiate home runs may be more of a product of metal bats than true strength and bat speed. His exit velocities are solid but unspectacular and he slugged just .341 in the Cape Cod League last year (albeit with a strong .361 on-base percentage), so his ceiling make cap out with home run totals in the teens to go along with high on-base percentages. Additionally, Lewis is a below average defender who will have to work very hard to stick at the third base position Cleveland drafted him at. He played first base for Wake Forest and did not necessarily look like a Gold Glover there, and as a hit-over-power bat, he'll have to get on base at a very high clip to stick in the lineup. There's a chance his below average speed and average arm could make him playable in left field, buying his bat marginally more slack. Like Tre Broussard, youth is a nice bonus as Lewis only turned 21 a month before the draft. He joins fellow hit-over-power first basemen CJ Kayfus and Ralphy Velazquez in the Cleveland organization.

5-155: OF Lucas Moore, Louisville
Slot value: $458,500. Signing bonus: $458,500.
My rank: #124. MLB Pipeline: #223. ESPN: #232.
I do have Lucas Moore about one hundred spots higher on my board than others, but that is more a product of a shorter board for me this year (132 spots) than I have had in past years and he would probably rank closer to the 200 mark had I gone that far. Either way, Moore brings us back to the same classic Cleveland profile we discussed with Tre Broussard. He hit over .300 as a part time player for Louisville in 2024 as a true freshman, then became the Cardinals' catalyst by hitting .341/.430/.456 as a sophomore in 2025 while leading all of Division I with 53 stolen bases (in just 54 tries no less). He was firmly in the second round conversation entering the 2026 season and those highest on him thought he could sneak into the back of the first if he showed a little more impact, but his junior season wound up being much more disappointing as he hit .286/.437/.406 with "just" 37 stolen bases. He falls here to the fifth round looking more like a potential fourth outfielder than the true leadoff type he was projected as earlier this year. Moore ran elite contact rates in 2025, with just a 9.1% strikeout rate and minuscule whiff rates to match. The strikeout rate climbed to 16.4% in 2026 and his contact rates similarly dipped from "elite" to "very good" with no corresponding uptick in impact. He works with a simple left handed swing, flicking the barrel at the ball to slap line drives around the field. At his best, he looks like a master of his craft guiding the ball into whichever hole he wants. A skinny six footer like Broussard, there is very little power to speak of and he will be lucky to challenge for double digit home run totals in the bigs, so he needs to continue making contact. Moore is a plus-plus runner with instincts to match, a menace on the base paths who, like Broussard, also plays a strong center field. To boot, he is an Ohio native out of Badin High School in Hamilton, about twenty miles north of Cincinnati, but unsurprisingly did grow up a Reds fan rather than a Guardians fan.

6-184: C Deiten Lachance, Oklahoma
Slot value: $355,700. Signing bonus: $450,000 ($94,300 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #103. ESPN: #151.
Deiten Lachance gets a fifth round signing bonus here in the sixth round, and he'll bring one of the draft's more interesting profiles to Cleveland. He grew up in Sherbrooke, Quebec, a small city just over the border from Vermont and New Hampshire, and began his career at McLennan JC in Texas where he mashed for two years despite having to learn English on the job. Transferring to Oklahoma for his junior season, he did not immediately find his power stroke and in fact waited until April 9th, in his 32nd game, to hit his first home run. That first home run must have clicked something, as he homered again the next day and in total 18 times in 32 games – against the toughest stretch of Oklahoma's schedule no less – as he played a central role in Oklahoma's turnaround and eventual College World Series Championship. Lachance is a big Frenchman at 6'5", 230 pounds, bringing above average raw power that produces home runs in bunches when he's going right. When he's not as hot, the power can play down in games because he is a very aggressive hitter who isn't always so eager to take a walk, regularly looking to do damage in all counts and situations. Pitchers can beat him with quality stuff out of the zone, but he does a very nice job of handling pitches in the zone and mashes mistakes. Even a tick more patience in his approach could unlock a very solid offensive profile. Lachance has more work to do behind the plate as well, but Cleveland is confidence that his solid glovework and arm will continue to come along as he learns the finer aspects of the craft. At peak, he could be a 20+ home run threat behind the plate, albeit with lower on-base percentages. He runs about as well as you might expect from a 6'5", 230 pound catcher, which is to say the Guardians would be much better served with him behind Tre Broussard and Lucas Moore on the bases rather than in front.

7-213: RHP Savion Sims, Prestonwood Christian HS [TX]
Slot value: $280,900. Signing bonus: $1 million ($719,100 above slot value).
My rank: #88. MLB Pipeline: #85. ESPN: #179.
Cleveland's big over-slot splurge went to Savion Sims, a live armed righty diverted from an Oklahoma commitment for roughly the value of the #82 pick early in the third round. While they didn't pull in Logan Schmidt five rounds earlier, Sims brings just as much upside if with significantly more risk. An Oklahoma native, he transferred from powerhouse Edmond Santa Fe High School in suburban Oklahoma City down to Prestonwood Christian Academy in the Dallas suburbs for more exposure on his massive stuff. Sims sits consistently in the mid 90's and touches triple digits with his blazing fastball, and the scary part is there may be even more in the tank. For now, the fastball is the show. He throws a hard slider that can look like a cutter at times, or when it flattens out it becomes a mid 80's cement mixer that can get hit hard by advanced hitters. The changeup is similarly behind, a rudimentary offering that will be overhauled in pro ball. Sims stands 6'8" and attacks hitters from a towering over the top release point, with room on his frame to add significantly more strength. While he doesn't throw with a ton of effort, he is still growing into his lanky frame and lacks the body control for refined command, getting scattered at times but generally trending in the right direction. Cleveland has always been good at developing pitchability, which Sims needs a lot of, so this could be a match made in heaven. He is also old for the class, having turned 19 more than a month before the draft (and therefore well over a year older than Schmidt), which adds to the already high reliever risk in his profile.

8-243: RHP Matt Scott, Georgia
Slot value: $228,600. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($28,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Matt Scott was one of the more intriguing senior signs on the market this year and still got $200,000 despite his reduced bargaining position. He began his career at Stanford and quickly became a central piece of their pitching staff, pitching as a swingman as a freshman before jumping into the rotation full time as a sophomore. Expectations were high entering his junior year in 2025, with some projecting him firmly in the first round conversation, but he struggled to a career-worst 6.02 ERA and just a 23% strikeout rate in a career-low 52.1 innings for the Cardinal. While he still had a chance to go in the fourth to sixth round range, he elected to give it another go to improve his draft position as a senior. He transferred across the country to Georgia as the second best unsigned college prospect returning to school, where he worked as a long reliever averaging about three innings per appearance and posted a career-best 4.22 ERA and 29.1% strikeout rate. Scott has a power low to mid 90's fastball that has hit 98 in the past, though he doesn't push above 96 too often now, coming in with massive riding action and cut to make for a difficult look. He has found more identity for his slider, separating it out into a true slider and a cutter that works with his natural release. He's still searching for a consistent changeup, showing nice movement but lacking the feel to execute it at a high level so he throws it less. Listed at 6'7", 240 pounds, he has big league size and then some and it plays into his game. Scott has thrown over fifty innings in each of his four seasons for a total of 259 and looks the part of a durable innings eater, whether out of the bullpen or rotation. The Connecticut native already pitched from a high release point at Stanford, then Georgia raised it even higher to about seven feet off the ground to create a towering, vertical look. He showed up on campus at Stanford with solid command for a freshman, enabling him to compete right away, but it hasn't taken a step forward in his four years and remains fringy. The lack of a fully developed offspeed assortment at this point, 22 years old, without the command to make up for it likely relegates him to a long relief role, but I would never count out Cleveland's development pipeline. His size, velocity, and release traits make him a dangerous prospect in their hands.

11-333: RHP Jake Bean, Louisville
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Northeast Ohio is not the baseball hotbed it once was, having produced names like Cy Young (Gilmore), Bill Mazeroski (Tiltonsville), Tommy Henrich (Massillon), and Dean Chance (Wooster) in the past, though guys like Derek Dietrich (Cleveland), Andrew Chafin (Wakeman), Eric Lauer (Elyria), and Dillon Dingler (Massillon) have kept the Cleveland area represented in the bigs. The Guardians are getting their own local kid in Jake Bean, a Middlefield native from about thirty miles east of Cleveland in Geauga County. After graduating from Cardinal High School, he began his career 25 miles from home at Kent State, where he barely pitched as a freshman but took a big step forward as a sophomore. Power programs around the region took notice and Louisville won the sweepstakes, but unfortunately he never found his footing with the Cardinals as he pitched to an ugly 10.29 ERA and 1.97 WHIP over 35 innings. Bean is a legitimate prospect with a low to mid 90's fastball that touches 97 at peak with life. He shows a darting slider, a loopier curveball that can show nice snap at its best, and a good fading changeup to round out a pretty full arsenal. As you might expect based on the numbers, his stuff was consistently inconsistent as his velocity would dip and his breaking balls would back up or firm out at times. The command was not half bad, but he missed over the plate more often than he needed to and ran an extremely low 16.8% strikeout rate, down from 22.0% (still relatively low) as a sophomore at Kent State. Cleveland is buying into the athlete, as Bean is a great mover on the mound with an athletic delivery and a projectable 6'3" frame that should help him lock in his stuff over longer stretches in 2026. It's a development project, but one that could net the Guardians an impact arm down the line.