Sunday, October 25, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Washington Nationals

Full list of draftees

In the first year under new President of Baseball Operations Paul Toboni, many people were very interested in what the Nationals' new philosophy would be this year. It appears that meant mostly bats early, including four of the first five picks and six of the top eight signing bonuses, followed by a slew of pitchers in the lower leverage spots. Washington swung big with the data darling Chris Hacopian at the first pick, took two huge swings on expensive preps in the third and fourth rounds, and hunted a lot of buy-low candidates in later rounds including several pitchers out with injuries. I like this Nationals class a lot better than former Mike Rizzo classes, especially as you get deeper into the search for sleepers in the cheaper slots.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-11: 2B Chris Hacopian, Texas A&M
Slot value: $6.13 million. Signing bonus: $5.7 million ($433,500 below slot value).
My rank: #14. MLB Pipeline: #14. ESPN: #13.
Chris Hacopian makes it immediately clear that the analytically-inclined Toboni regime is nothing like the more traditional Mike Rizzo regime. A local kid, he grew up a Nationals fan in Potomac, Maryland and played ball at Winston Churchill High School just seven and a half miles northwest of the DC line. He began his career locally at Maryland, where he played with his brother Eddie and hit .347/.465/.614 with 29 home runs over 107 games in two seasons. When Eddie graduated, Chris headed west to Texas A&M for the bigger challenge of the SEC. Unsurprisingly if you watched him at Maryland, he succeeded, overcoming back problems that slowed him early to hit .319/.405/.578 with eleven home runs in 42 games. Hacopian might be the most analytically appealing hitter in the country, grading out as plus or better by virtually every under the hood measure. First of all, he almost never chases, running some of the lowest chase rates in the country among drafted bats and running a strong 12.8% walk rate. Second, when he does attack, he almost never misses, running excellent contact rates and just a 10.8% strikeout rate in 2026 that only rose to 12.5% against elite SEC weekend pitching. He's calm, cool, and collected in the box no matter the competition and executes his plan at the plate whether the pitcher wants him to or not. Next up, Hacopian is no slouch in the power department. His top-end exit velocities suggest plus power in the tank, though it does play more above average in games and he did not hit for as much impact with wood bats in the Cape Cod League last year (.258/.333/.364) as some had hoped. He did strike out just six times in 36 games against strong pitching up there, further exemplifying his plus hit tool. The Nationals believe the power will fully manifest in games in pro ball, especially if they can get him turning on the ball more often, where he could flirt with .400 on-base percentages while blasting 20-25+ home runs per season. It's a middle of the order profile projection for a guy whose value will come almost entirely from his bat. Hacopian is a below average runner and the back problems don't point to him suddenly becoming a speedster as he matures into his 20's, while his average arm strength doesn't offer a ton of defensive upside either. He has played all over the infield in college, even shortstop for some time in 2026, but fits best at second base where he will hope to be a fringy defender. If the keystone doesn't work out, he could end up at first base or in left field, where as a right handed hitter the pressure will be on his bat even more. Given the professional approach, strong bat to ball, and underlying raw power, his bat should play anywhere.

2-42: OF Chase Brunson, Texas Christian
Slot value: $2.39 million. Signing bonus: $1.8 million ($588,800 below slot value).
My rank: #51. MLB Pipeline: #50. ESPN: #38.
In the second round, Washington went with a second metric-friendly college bat in Chase Brunson. A three year starter at TCU, he has improved every year and hit .304/.462/.556 with ten home runs in 51 games in 2026. Brunson lacks a true plus tool, but he has a whole bunch of above average tools. He has a strong approach at the plate that keeps the strikeout rate down while increasing his walk rate from 10.6% over his first two seasons to 14.7% in 2026. Like Chris Hacopian, he makes plenty of contact as well, making for an above average all-around hit tool. It's a simple, direct right handed swing that naturally leverages his strength and hand-eye coordination. The power has played closer to average in games with a career high of only twelve home runs, but the exit velocities are strong and help him project for above average power. With a strong 6'3" frame and a late birthday that had him turn 21 just before the draft, he should continue to mature physically and maximize that power. In all, it could be a 20+ home run profile with solid batting averages, and with at least average or better speed, he could throw a few stolen bases in there as well. An outfielder by trade, he makes good reads and takes good routes in the outfield to profile as a potential center fielder. There's a chance he slides to a corner in deference to a more explosive defender, where he would be an above average defender in either left or right. The Southern California native is a likely everyday player in some capacity with a chance to be an impact bat in the near future. His $1.8 million signing bonus was also more than half a million below slot value, closer to the value of the #54 pick, giving the Nationals a little wiggle room for their next pick.

3-78: SS Luke Williams, Franklin Regional HS [PA]
Slot value: $1.07 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($1.43 million above slot value).
My rank: #68. MLB Pipeline: #90. ESPN: #57.
Washington took a massive swing with Luke Williams, going more than double the slot value to sign him away from a Vanderbilt commitment with a bonus roughly the value of the #40 pick. To call Williams talented would be an understatement. While he wasn't seen on the summer showcase circuit in 2025 due to an ankle injury, he had scouting directors streaming into the Pittsburgh area with an electric spring in 2026 to rocket himself up boards. Listed at 6', 180 pounds, he is a freak athlete that looked like he didn't belong on the same field as much of his competition. He takes big, explosive swings from the right side that leverage his skinny frame into average power, and as he matures physically, he could reach above average power. Perhaps most apparent at this point is his plus-plus speed, which he uses and abuses by flying around the field both on the bases and in the field. The hit tool is a little less proven, as he performed well up in Pittsburgh but hasn't been seen against higher level pitching. Had he appeared on the showcase circuit last year and succeeded, he would probably be a no-doubt first round pick and make $2.5 million look like a bargain. That's of course a big wild card, and the Nationals know that the jump from high school pitching, especially up north, to pro ball is often a very difficult task. Still, watching him just dominate the average competition he faced in Pittsburgh with every single facet of his game, from clobbering home runs to taking the extra base (or two) at every single opportunity to gliding to every ball hit in his direction, leaves an impression. Defensively, his wheels and plus arm give him every chance to stick at shortstop, though he'll have to get more consistent with his actions and glovework to profile there long term. His speed, arm, and high energy style of play would fit great in center field, where he could be a plus defender. There is real five-tool upside here for a kid who could hit 15-20 or more home runs per season, steal a bunch of bases, and win some Gold Gloves, but he'll have to hit. The Nationals are convinced he'll do so, and besides lack of opportunity, he's shown no reason to think he won't. Williams has a very good chance to be the best player in this Nationals draft class.

4-106: RHP Cooper Harris, Flower Mound HS [TX]
Slot value: $740,500. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($759,500 above slot value).
My rank: #66. MLB Pipeline: #76. ESPN: #119.
After spending a boatload on Luke Williams, the Nationals weren't done swinging yet and gave another double slot value bonus to Cooper Harris, previously a Texas commit who instead got a bonus roughly the value of the #62 pick. The first pitcher in this Nationals' draft class, his profile might not be as electric as that of Williams on the surface but he does inject a premium arm into the system. Like Williams, he leveraged a loud senior year to push his way up rankings and wound up both as the first Texas high school pitcher drafted and the highest paid in this class. Despite being young for the class, Harris is one of the more well-rounded prep arms out there. He has a fastball in the low 90's that peaks at 96, while a full arsenal of secondary pitches makes him a reliable arm. He has a nice top to bottom curveball that steals strikes, while his above average slider has two-plane action and is likely his best secondary. There's a solid changeup in tow as well, giving him a full, effective four pitch mix of average or better offerings. Harris repeats everything well, filling up the strike zone with all four pitches and command that grades out as plus by prep standards. He works both sides of the plate effectively and already looks poised to navigate big league lineups. The 6'3" righty is also already very physical, with a simple, athletic delivery that should point to a long career in a big league rotation. Harris has all the makings of a future #3 or #4 starter, with less risk than most prep arms. If the fastball ticks up a few miles per hour, he'll be a weapon.

5-138: 3B Daniel Cuvet, Miami
Slot value: $542,200. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($44,700 below slot value).
My rank: #117. MLB Pipeline: #120. ESPN: #152.
Switching to money saving mode after grabbing the two expensive preps, Washington went slightly under slot value to bring in one of the ACC's most accomplished bats. A highly regarded prep prospect in his own right, Daniel Cuvet hit campus at Miami and immediately took the ACC by storm, hitting .351/.429/.736 with a Miami freshman-record 24 home runs in 57 games and earning consensus Freshman All-American honors. Two years later, he finishes his Miami career with 54 home runs, 204 RBI, and a .347/.439/.704 slash line across 159 games, putting his name up with the all time Miami greats like Pat Burrell, Ryan Braun, and Yonder Alonso. Unsurprisingly, Cuvet has plus raw power that he taps very consistently in games, showing his best power to the pull side but easily clearing fences to all fields even when he doesn't quite square it up. The right handed swing can get a bit grooved at times and the pure bat to ball is fringy, with further questions looming as he ascends the minor league ladder and faces better and better pitching that can exploit those holes. Formerly an aggressive hitter, he has toned down his approach at Miami and increased his walk rate from 9.8% to 11.2% to 17.4% while slashing his strikeout rate from 23.7% to 19.0% to 15.8%. That improved approach will significantly help his hit tool projection, helping him attack the pitches in his wheelhouse without helping pitchers on pitches outside of it. At 6'3", 240 pounds, he has a slugger's frame but will need to work hard to stick at third base, where he is understandably a bit slower on his feet and moving side to side. There is a good chance he moves to first base in the long run, or the Nationals could try him out in right field, where his plus arm might offset his below average speed a little bit. Cuvet will provide almost all of his value with his bat, projecting for 20+ home runs a year with lower batting averages if he can make enough contact to tap his power. If not, he is most likely a platoon power bat earning reps at the corners against left handed pitching.

6-167: RHP Cooper Allen, UNC Wilmington
Slot value: $410,300. Signing bonus: $187,500 ($222,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Fully in money-saving mode, the Nationals took on a little more off-the-radar name in Cooper Allen. He spent two years in the UNC Wilmington bullpen, struggling in his freshman season then taking a step forward to become a promising reliever as a sophomore. Jumping to the rotation as a junior in 2026, he turned heads with a torrid start to the season including back to back ten strikeout performances against Fordham and UConn in February, then continued it into what was a really impressive year. One of the top starting pitchers in the CAA, Allen gets it done with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal of secondaries including a deep slider, a shorter cutter, a curveball, and a changeup. His command has improved tremendously as he has slashed his walk rate from 15.2% as a freshman to 7.9% as a sophomore to just 6.7% as a junior, allowing him to really work back and forth with all of his pitches and pitch deep into games. Despite being his first season in the rotation, he went at least six innings in eight of his fifteen starts and thrice completed eight innings. He's efficient, too, in fact culminating his season with a 104 pitch, eleven strikeout, complete game win over Monmouth in May. The 6'1" righty does not have a plus pitch in his arsenal and will likely need to be crafty to work his way up as a back-end starter, but gives the Nationals a nice potential rotation play for a lower signing bonus regardless. He grew up in Wake Forest, North Carolina, just north of Raleigh and in fact closer to Nationals Park than it is to any other big league stadium.

7-196: RHP Gage Peterson, Appalachian State
Slot value: $322,300. Signing bonus: $247,500 ($74,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #247. ESPN: unranked.
Gage Peterson makes it back to back righties out of the Tar Heel State, though he originally hails from just over the border in East Tennessee. Beginning his college career locally at Walters State JC in Tennessee, he succeeded for two years in Morristown and transferred to Appalachian State in 2026. He continued to roll in Boone, going 8-1 with a 3.28 ERA and 107 strikeouts, the second highest total ever for a Mountaineer pitcher. Peterson has a sneaky profile that will be a fun development play, rather than the more straightforward pitching profile of the two Coopers above him. The fastball sits in the low 90's and tops out at 94 right now, underwhelming velocity but far from a fringy pitch. Peterson's lanky 6'5" frame helps him get excellent extension and ride on the pitch, making it play way above that velocity and giving it plus potential if he can add a few ticks of velocity. He mixes in a full set of secondaries in a slider, curveball, and changeup, though none stand out above average this point and will need significant refinement if he wants to remain a starter. Peterson also has some effort in his delivery that features some moving parts, leading to fringier but still playable command. The Nationals will look to streamline him while maximizing the effectiveness of both his unique fastball and his offspeed stuff, which could make him a solid starting pitching option in the future. There is a decent chance he winds up in the bullpen, where his fastball could play up significantly especially with the velocity boost that comes with pitching in short stints.

9-256: C Cashel Dugger, UCLA
Slot value: $216,100. Signing bonus: $213,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #227. ESPN: #245.
This is a pretty straightforward pick as far as late-round catchers go. Cashel Dugger started about half of UCLA's games as a freshman, then has served as the Bruins' starting catcher for each of the last two seasons. In those three years, he never hit too much, finishing his career with just eight home runs and a .258/.390/.349 slash line over 145 games. Dugger uses a simple setup from the left side, working counts extremely well while making plenty of contact. He has excellent pitch recognition and consistently finds his way on base, working walks or dumping line drives over the infielders' heads. He came into UCLA with zero power and it has taken significant strength gains to get to the below average power he has now, so he may never profile for double digit home runs in the majors. However, the Nationals see an imposing frame at 6'3", 210 pounds and believe they could squeeze a little more out of him, perhaps getting up to fringy power and helping him threaten for 10-15 home runs per season, which would be plenty given his on-base ability and defensive value. The latter is the real draw here, as Dugger is one of the game's better defensive backstops as an excellent framer and blocker with a strong arm. He's a natural back there and also works extremely well with pitchers, which gives him a chance to provide significant value to the organization before he even reaches the majors just by working with their young arms. The Denver-area native is also young for a college junior and turned 21 shortly after the draft, giving him a little extra time to find offensive impact. If he does, he has a chance to work his way up as a strong, archetypal glove-first backup catcher.

12-346: LHP Matthew Dallas, Wake Forest
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($25,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
The Nationals hope that Matthew Dallas is a high-upside buy-low prospect. A highly regarded prep prospect out of a Memphis-area high school in 2023, he began his career in-state at Tennessee and showed some promise out of the Volunteers' bullpen as a freshman. Command hindered him in the Cape Cod League that summer and he transferred to Wake Forest for the 2025 season, where he made fourteen starts and showed real upside as a draft-eligible sophomore. Signability sent him back to Winston-Salem, where he struck out 14 of the 32 batters he faced (43.8%) over his first two starts against Indiana State and Siena. That had many scouts, including those reporting to Washington DC, leaning forward in their chairs excited about what could come of this junior year. Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery after that second start and missed the rest of the season. Dallas has a low 90's fastball up to 94 that he complements with a full assortment of secondaries, though he's still working to get consistent with them. His best is a big, deep curveball with great finish, which he can turn over into a solid slider as well and finishes things off with a changeup. The 6'5" lefty has plenty of projection even if he was already 22 on draft day, especially once he gets healthy and into a pro development program (though Wake Forest is pretty close to that already). At this point, he struggles with command and that combined with health may eventually push him to the bullpen, but his build and the fluidity with which he moves should hopefully point to improved command as he settles in. There is starter upside here if he can get healthy and recapture the potential he showed as a teenager, albeit with a long road to get there for someone who is already 22. Dallas should expect to return to the mound sometime in mid-2027.

15-436: C Francisco Rivero, Canyon Del Oro HS [AZ]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($100,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
The Nationals' largest expenditure in the back of the draft was Francisco Rivero, who earned eighth round money to forego a local Arizona commitment and sign with the Nationals. Formerly a Venezuelan international prospect who appeared bound for the Dodgers, he was ruled ineligible to sign as an international free agent and instead graduated from Canyon Del Oro High School in Tucson as a regular draft target. The Nationals get him here for a fraction of what he was expected to sign for in LA, which could be a nice bargain. However, he was suspended in October after testing positive for Stanozolol, so he will miss the first 56 games of the 2027 season and come eligible again mid-season. Rivero is a thickly built 6', 215 pounds, showing a balanced offensive profile with strong bat to ball and some latent pop that he'll learn to tap more in pro ball. For now, the power is fringy, but his strength and some mechanical tweaks to get him a bit smoother and more explosive through the zone should get him there. He is well-regarded for his work behind the plate, including for a strong arm and athleticism that might be somewhat unexpected at his size. If Rivero can bounce back from the suspension and bring out his power, he has nice upside as another catcher in the organization.

18-526: IF Avery Ortiz, Oklahoma State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $212,500 ($72,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
With the last of their overage money, Washington brought in Avery Ortiz for ninth round money here in the eighteenth round. Avery Ortiz is another upside play whose numbers at Oklahoma State do not match his potential. Injuries have limited him to 66 games over three seasons, where he hit a modest .253/.361/.462 with 12 home runs, never totaling more than eight extra base hits in a season. He similarly never did much in two Cape Cod League stints (.211/.309/.310, 1 HR in 22 games). However, he could grow into a force. A bit undersized at 5'11", 190 pounds, he packs a punch at the plate with plus raw power from a really leveraged, efficient right handed swing. That power has not shown up in games just yet, though it does seem to be coming as he has blasted some baseballs at the top end of his exit velocities and has continued to do so with wood in the Nationals system. Having cut his strikeout rate from 23.5% over his first two seasons to 16.0% as a junior, he seems to be putting himself in more of a position to tap it as well. Ortiz remains an aggressive hitter and may drive the ball more often by hunting pitches in his wheelhouse, given his strong bat to ball often creates weak contact outside of it, giving the Nationals a potential developmental goal. The Tulsa native played second base as a freshman, shortstop as a sophomore, and third base as a junior, so the Nationals drafted him as a generic infielder and will try him out around the field. His versatility should serve him well as he looks to bring his bat along and take leaps and bounds forward in pro ball. There is sneaky upside here at the very end of the draft.

20-586: RHP Anson Seibert, Johnson County JC [KS]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
The Nationals finished things off with Anson Seibert, another buy-low upside play with a lot to prove. Seibert was a famous name in the 2024 prep class, earning first round looks early in his high school career as an early candidate for the top prep arm in the class. He stock slowly faded throughout his time at Blue Valley Southwest High School in the Kansas City suburbs, and while he performed well in his senior year, a flexor strain ultimately ended that season in April with a fourth-ish round draft tag. Signability sent him to Tennessee, where he joined fellow incoming freshman and eventual Cardinals first rounder Tegan Kuhns as an excellent potential one-two punch in the rotation. Unfortunately, he never got healthy in Knoxville and missed the entire 2024-2025 school year, prompting him to transfer back home to Johnson County JC about eight miles from his high school. Finally healthy enough to get on the mound in 2026 after two years off, he made seven relief appearances for the Cavaliers to mixed results, but showed enough to grab the Nationals' interest with their final pick. Seibert is a towering 6'9", 235 pound righty who has filled out considerably as one of the most imposing figures you'll find on a mound anywhere. The. fastball touched 99 in high school but sat in the mid 90's after two years off, topping out at 96, with the hope that he can regain that velocity with a longer string of healthy innings under him. The offspeed stuff he showed as a prep is still there, with a solid slider and changeup that round out a dangerous three pitch mix. He is looking a little stiffer on the mound these days, so as has been the theme here, more time on the healthy mound should hopefully loosen him up and bring back that velocity and his command. A fully healthy Anson Seibert is a dangerous thing and worth far more than a twentieth round pick, fitting better in the middle of a big league rotation, but that is far from guaranteed and he may be forced to the bullpen long term to limit the wear and tear on his arm. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he turned 21 only shortly after the draft.

Monday, October 19, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

From Tim Salmon to Mark Trumbo to Patrick Sandoval to (briefly) Kyle Hendricks, the Angels have had a fair number of local Orange County products star in the red and white (okay, Salmon grew up two miles over the border into LA County). They could have their next local star in Jared Grindlinger, a Huntington Beach native, heading off a draft chock full of Californians. In fact, eight Californians grace this class of nineteen signees (plus a ninth whose father played for the Angels), including seven from Southern California and four (Grindlinger, Gavin Grahovac of Orange, Ryan Hetzler of Corona, and Jack Salmon of Newport Beach) Orange County products. From a player perspective, the Angels played the draft very straight up, rarely going far above or below slot as they continued to bring in talent in the back half of the top ten rounds where other teams often save money on inexpensive seniors. The profiles here are pretty straightforward too, with many all-around profiles that project more as big league regulars than extreme profiles with outlier traits (save for second rounder Jarren Advincula with elite bat to ball).
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-12: OF Jared Grindlinger, Huntington Beach HS [CA]
Slot value: $5.89 million. Signing bonus: $5.89 million.
My rank: #12. MLB Pipeline: #16. ESPN: #11.
The headliner of this Angels class is a local legend himself, growing up less than a dozen miles from Angel Stadium in Huntington Beach. Jared Grindlinger comes from a baseball family as the younger brother of Tennessee star Trent Grindlinger, himself a potential first round pick in 2027, and appears poised to take off. Originally a member of the 2027 class, Jared reclassified to the 2026 class very late, announcing in February right at the start of his would-be junior season. He proceeded to put on a show during his now-senior season, showcasing first round skills both on the mound and at the plate. His hometown Angels pounced on him as a position player, where he has a chance to be an impact bat in a few years' time. Grindlinger is an advanced hitter well beyond his years, handling premium pitching from older competition with aplomb on the showcase circuit and again at home in Southern California. He makes a ton of contact and shows a heavy barrel from the left side, projecting for high batting averages and on-base percentages. At this point, the power is probably just average, but he has plenty of projection on his 6'3", 190 pound frame and given that he didn't even turn seventeen until April, he is a long way from physical maturity. His brother Trent is three years older and now carries 220 pounds on his 6'3" frame, coming off a freshman season in which he blasted eight home runs for Tennessee. Jared's bat is ahead of his athleticism, where his below average speed may limit his value in the outfield. He does have a plus arm, which makes right field the likely destination, though first base is a real possibility if he slows down any further. Grindlinger will be giving up pitching for now, but he's very talented in that regard as well with a low 90's fastball that touches 96 at peak coupled with an above average slider and changeup. It's a very advanced three pitch mix for a seventeen year old, and he repeats his delivery very well which helps him show very strong command for his age. Right now, the Angels would like to see Grindlinger develop into a 20 home run, .300 average bat, with a fallback option as a #3 starter. Not bad.

2-45: 2B Jarren Advincula, Georgia Tech
Slot value: $2.23 million. Signing bonus: $2.3 million ($71,700 above slot value).
My rank: #47. MLB Pipeline: #48. ESPN: #71.
If you like throwback players, Jarren Advincula may be your guy. Another California native, he grew up in Santa Clara and played high school ball at powerhouse Archbishop Mitty High School in San Jose, then stayed home to play college ball at Cal. After hitting .334 over two seasons in Berkeley, he transferred across the country to Georgia Tech and proceeded to go absolutely bonkers at the plate. In 61 games, he hit .434 with more runs scored (74) and RBI (66) than games played, leading the nation with 111 hits while his .434 batting average finished second only to Western Michigan's Tanner Mally at .446. What makes it even crazier, though, was that against top-flight arms in ACC play, he hit .477 with a .546 on-base percentage across 27 games. In ACC play, he led all conference bats in average, on-base percentage, and hits (53 in 27 games!), and it wasn't even close. Advincula works from a crouched setup at the plate, using a linear swing to shoot line drives around the field and rarely looks to turn on the ball. While he chases at a relatively high rate, he makes such elite contact that he still almost never strikes out and did so just 5.3% of the time in 2026 (16 times in 61 games), an absurdly low number. He's not looking for power, though the exit velocity data is not terribly weak and he did homer ten times in 2026. While he probably won't hit for double digit home run totals in pro ball, that's a nice indicator that he'll continue to collect base hits with wood bats and won't be purely a slap hitter. A plus runner, his wheels can help him turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples while giving him plenty of opportunities to steal bases when he's getting on half the time. That speed also helps him in the dirt, where he has the range to play anywhere in the infield. The arm strength may limit him to second base, where he should be an above average defender. The easy comparison is to Luis Arraez, though Advincula is a better runner who can do more with balls in play.

3-81: 1B Gavin Grahovac, Texas A&M
Slot value: $1.02 million. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($229,000 above slot value).
My rank: #60. MLB Pipeline: #38. ESPN: #53.
Making it three straight Californians to start the draft, the Angels returned to Orange County to pull in Gavin Grahovac. Grahovac hails from Orange and attended Villa Park High School just four miles from Angel Stadium, where he was a highly regarded prep prospect and earned looks in the top handful of rounds in 2023. When he reached campus at Texas A&M, he immediately exploded into one of the best freshman bats in America by hitting .298/.390/.596 with an A&M freshman record 23 home runs across 67 games, earning SEC Freshman of the Year honors and finding his name on many freshman All-American lists in 2024. Having struck out at a 29% clip that year, contact was the next item on the to-do list, but unfortunately he missed almost all of the 2025 season with a labrum tear. Returning in 2026, he took the step forward with the bat that evaluators were hoping to see by slashing .339/.429/.722 with 22 home runs in 57 games, this time dropping his strikeout rate all the way to 16.5%. Grahovac is still power over hit, showing huge bat speed and ridiculous torque to create easily plus raw power from the right side. At 6'3", 230 pounds, he is built like a slugger and after homering 47 times in 130 college games, he will continue to tap that power with wood bats without question. The contact rates spiked in the right direction in 2026, and he hit a particularly impressive .344/.418/.754 with a very reasonably 17.7% strikeout rate against elite pitching in SEC play this year. He's an aggressive hitter that walked less than 10% of the time in 2026, making for a very simple game plan for opposing pitchers in pro ball given his already fringy bat to ball skills. In order to succeed against better and better pitching that will make fewer mistakes, he will need to further clean up his approach and focus on the pitches he can do damage on. Too much of his contact in 2026 was weak, still an improvement over missing those pitches completely in 2024, and the competition is only getting tougher. Defensively, Grahovac manned third base as a freshman but slid to first base as a junior and it looks like that's where he'll stay. He's not terribly slow in the field and has the arm strength for the hot corner, but the glovework has always been rocky and there's more to gain by focusing on his tremendous impact potential. He has the chance to hit 30+ home runs per season, albeit with lower batting averages. Mark Trumbo might make a good comp here.

4-109: OF Rylan Lujo, Georgia
Slot value: $718,700. Signing bonus: $747,500 ($28,800 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #189. ESPN: #96.
Shifting to the opposite end of the spectrum, the Angels flipped coasts and flipped profiles with Rylan Lujo. Lujo starred at Dayton as a freshman then transferred to Georgia as a sophomore, where he consistently earned his spot in one of the most dangerous lineups in the country. He doesn't chase much, but aggressively attacks pitches in the zone and rarely misses. That helped him hit .361 at Dayton, .347 at Georgia, and even .394 in SEC play as he consistently met fastball after fastball and breaking ball after breaking ball for flush contact. His 8.8% overall strikeout rate and 10.6% rate in SEC play are both elite numbers, pointing to a hitter who will continue to hit for a high average in pro ball. While Lujo has some size at 6'2", 190 pounds and hit 17 home runs in 2026, he projects more as a fringy power hitter with a line drive swing and all-fields approach. The power is likely to play down a touch with wood and likely projects him for home run totals in the low teens, though that does pair nicely with his potential for high averages. The South Florida native also rarely walks, so the batting average will really drive the profile all-around. Formerly an infielder, he manned center field in Athens and performed admirably, where his above average speed gives him a chance to stick there. Lujo likely profiles as a fringe-everyday guy who can be a fringy defender in center or right field or an above average defender in left field. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he is younger than other Angels college draftees and only turned 21 a month before the draft. His grandfather was Rennie Stennett, a 1970's Pirates second baseman who played alongside Roberto Clemente and gathered over 1200 hits in an eleven year career.

5-141: SS Jaxon Willits, Oklahoma
Slot value: $526,600. Signing bonus: $647,500 ($120,900 above slot value).
My rank:  #114. MLB Pipeline: #117. ESPN: #104.
Continuing with the baseball bloodlines, Jaxon Willits at this point represents the third most famous baseball player in his family. His father Reggie played for the Angels from 2006-2011 and may best be remembered for his 2007 season in which he hit .293 and stole 27 bases in 136 games for the Halos. Jaxon's younger brother Eli was the first overall pick in the 2025 draft and is already flying through the Nationals system, and now Jaxon will have his turn to make a name for himself. Jaxon is a three year starter at Oklahoma, where he hit .307/.403/.521 with 25 home runs in 163 games during his career in Norman. He went out with a bang, picking up thirteen hits, including a home run, in six College World Series games to put the Sooners on his back and carry them to the National Championship. Like Rylan Lujo, he is a hit over power bat who excels at putting the ball in play. He rarely chases leading to that career OBP over .400 at Oklahoma, and makes good contact when pitchers do come into the zone. A switch hitter, his swings are geared to reach out and poke the ball into the gaps, where the natural strength in his 6' frame helps him pick up plenty of extra base hits. Willits really has to wind up and turn on the ball to tap his fringy power, so he likely won't threaten for more than 10-15 home runs per season. His approach has played very well in two seasons in the Cape Cod League, where he hit .318/.450/.409 with a strong 18.7% strikeout rate as even strong Cape pitching couldn't keep him off base. The Oklahoma native has a similar profile on defense, where he is more steady than flashy with average speed and arm strength. He'll likely be stretched at shortstop, but his high baseball IQ and consistent glove should make him an asset at second base. He could move through the minors quickly and become a solid part-time option in short order, with the chance to seize an every day role if he keeps getting on base at a high clip.

7-199: RHP Ryan Hetzler, Auburn
Slot value: $314,300. Signing bonus: $322,500 ($8,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
The Angels' fourth Californian and third Southern Californian is Ryan Hetzler, who grew up in Corona about 25 miles east of Angel Stadium and played ball at Arlington High School in nearby Riverside. He began his career almost across the street at Cal Baptist, whose home plate sits less than two thirds of a mile from that of Arlington HS. After a successful freshman season as the Lancers' closer, he transferred across the country to Auburn where he continued to successfully serve in a closing capacity. Hetzler is an interesting one who does not have the typical late inning SEC fireballer profile. The fastball is still a good one, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching 98 at peak, and he brings a full arsenal of secondary stuff. There is a short sweeping slider that can look like a cutter at times, while his curveball has more depth and gives hitters a different look. The changeup is inconsistent, but it looks like a potential above average pitch when he sells it right. Unlike most college relief picks, he pounds the strike zone with plus command and walked just nine batters in two seasons, just a minuscule 3.1% walk rate over 72 innings. Given that command and four pitch mix, it's not out of the question that Hetzler could have a chance to start at the next level. In fact, proponents of this pick could look to Hetzler's command, four pitch mix, and real velocity to say he has a much more well-rounded profile than you would expect in the seventh round. Detractors, however, would point to his size (5'11", 185 pounds), lack of a true putaway pitch, and the general poor track record of college relievers in pro ball as points against him. The Angels certainly fall into the believer category and it will be interesting to see how they choose to develop the local kid.

8-229: C Garrett Wright, Tennessee
Slot value: $249,300. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($148,200 above slot value).
My rank: #130. MLB Pipeline: #190. ESPN: #162.
The Angels went a bit above slot value to bring in Garrett Wright, who signed for roughly the value of their sixth round pick here in the eighth round. Wright played two years at Bowling Green, where he was MAC Freshman of the Year in 2024 and made the all-conference team again in 2025, overall slashing .396/.509/.631 with 14 home runs in 94 games and leaving town for a bigger challenge. He found that challenge at Tennessee, where he continued to be a menace at the plate when the Volunteers played lesser teams but put up just a pedestrian .254/.354/.426 line in SEC conference play. Wright has a pretty fun profile overall. While he lacks impressive top-end exit velocities, he whips the bat around well with strong wrists and great feel for the barrel to maximize his fringy raw power in games. He's a very aggressive hitter who walked just 5.9% of the time and chased over a third of the time in 2026, a trait which he offsets in two ways. One is solid bat to ball skills, which helps him run solid contact rates both inside and outside the zone. The other is almost an eager willingness to get hit by pitches, having taken 68 plunkings in his three seasons in college to run up his on-base percentage. In fact, he has been hit by significantly more pitches than he has drawn walks in each of his three seasons (21 vs 13, 28 vs 24, and 19 vs 13). Wright is the kind of player that will grind it out and outplay the sum of his parts offensively, hoping to put together a 15-20 home run projection with decent batting averages if he can maximize everything. The Angels are drafting him as a catcher, where he shined as a backstop at Bowling Green and was even named the MAC Defensive Player of the Year in 2025. The Northeast Ohio native is a great athlete behind the plate and has a strong arm to boot, giving him every shot to be a strong defensive catcher at the big league level. Unfortunately he broke his hamate bone and was relegated to the outfield in 2026, where his plus speed makes him a potential center fielder. The value is of course much higher behind the plate, and that's where the Angels will invest their effort. He's reminiscent of Daulton Varsho in that sense that he can play both catcher and center field, though he's right handed and a bit taller than his Astros counterpart. The offensive profile could be somewhat similar too.

9-259: RHP Trevor Hansen, UC Irvine
Slot value: $213,900. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($16,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #179. ESPN: unranked.
If you've been to a game or two down at UC Irvine lately, you probably saw Trevor Hansen pitch. A graduate of Royal High School out in Simi Valley about sixty miles northeast of Angel Stadium. In three years in Irvine, he made 46 starts and pitched 248 innings as perhaps the Anteaters' most relied-upon arm. While his best season was 2025, when he went 9-3 with a 3.30 ERA and a 95/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings, he set a new career high in strikeouts (96) and strikeout rate (27.5%) as his stuff took a step forward. The fastball now sits in the low 90's and touches 95 at peak, not overwhelming velocity but a step above where he had been and perfectly playable in pro ball. The fastball plays up a tad with big riding action as well, making it an effective pitch at the top of the zone. He shows a power curveball in the low 80's with nice late snap, while his changeup has come along and gives him a third quality offering. The command isn't pinpoint, but it's reliable and he has run a sub-10% walk rate in all three of his seasons in Irvine including 8% in 2026. The 6'2" righty repeats his delivery well, even with a bit of head whack, and looks the part of a big league starter. His ceiling may be limited, but with a lack of glaring flaws in the profile as well, he has a shot to pitch his way up as a back-end, innings eating starter.

Thursday, October 15, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: St. Louis Cardinals

Full list of draftees

The Cardinals had massive draft capital in 2026, with an extra CBA pick and two CBB picks stemming from the Brendan Donovan trade, giving them six of the first 86 picks and the fifth highest bonus pool overall despite not picking until #13. They used that money to aggressively take two high-end prep bats for a combined $8.36 million, having had recent success with names like Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, and Thomas Saggese, even if not all have consistently provided impact at the big league level. Interestingly, the Cardinals had a very clear preference with the pitchers they took. Most of the arms coming to St. Louis, especially those who signed for larger bonuses, shared one trait in common: the "rocket ship" fastball. I define the rocket ship as a high velocity, high ride fastball from a low release point, giving it the appearance of rising and even grabbing an extra gear through the zone. These fastballs are considered very modern, contrasting against traditional high release, sinking fastballs of recent decades. This continues on the trend they started with Liam Doyle and Tanner Franklin last year. After the two big preps, they really targeted power bats with eye-popping batted ball data, including Andrew Williamson, Caden Ferraro, and twentieth rounder Kollin Ritchie who ultimately did not sign.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-13: OF Trevor Condon, Etowah HS [GA]
Slot value: $5.66 million. Signing bonus: $5.16 million ($500,000 below slot value).
My rank: #13. MLB Pipeline: #13. ESPN: #16.
For the first time since Jordan Walker in 2020, the Cardinals went the high school route with their first pick after falling in love with fellow Atlanta-area product Trevor Condon's combination of upside and present ability. Long a prominent member of the 2026 draft class, he entered his senior season a fringe-first round pick before turning in an excellent spring, steadily pushing himself higher and higher until he landed with the Cardinals just inside the top half of the first round. Condon is a prototypical table setter type with a long track record of performance, hitting everywhere he has gone including the summer showcase circuit and back home in a competitive Atlanta-area high school league. You don't see a lot of .300 hitters anymore, but Condon certainly has a shot to be just that and do so with impact. Though he's undersized at 5'11", 180 pounds, he effectively channels his strength into a healthy left handed swing that can produce some nice pull side power when he elevates. It's more of a line drive approach in games and that will likely always be what's best suited for his skill set, so he may project for 10-15 home runs per season at peak but could pop for closer to 20 if he does look to elevate. He is a plus-plus runner who can change games on the bases, adding to his leadoff upside and especially valuable with the bigger bases and disengagement rules. That speed of course plays in center field as well, where he projects as a plus defender who could take home Gold Glove awards if his defense continues to develop as expected. Unlike many undersized speedsters, Condon does have solid arm strength and should keep baserunners honest in that regard as well. To top it off, scouts love his all out, hair on fire style of play that gets the most out of his blazing speed. All high schoolers carry risk and his upside may depend on how much impact he can add with the bat, but few preps in this class come with the combination of hitting ability, speed, and flare that Condon brings.

CBA-32: RHP Tegan Kuhns, Tennessee
Slot value: $3.04 million. Signing bonus: $3.04 million.
My rank: #20. MLB Pipeline: #25. ESPN: #32.
Consider me a Tegan Kuhns fan, so I'm a big fan of this pick in the CBA range. He was a premium prep prospect out of southern Pennsylvania in 2024, where he earned top three rounds interest but ultimately priced himself out to head to Tennessee. He immediately took on a sizable role as a freshman in 2025 then took a big step forward in 2026, serving as the Volunteers' Friday ace with performances that included ten strikeouts against season-long #1 UCLA in February and a dominant fifteen strikeout performance against College World Series participant Texas in May. Kuhns gets it done with a mid 90's fastball that touches 98 and can blow by hitters, playing up with rocket ship-like movement characterized by high riding action from a lower slot. His hammer curveball misses a ton of bats and projects as a plus pitch, while his fringier cutter has short action and serves more as a different look. He's still working on bringing along his changeup, which remains fringy and will need significant work in pro ball. Kuhns is a great mover on the mound with an athletic delivery, great extension, and a low release point to make all of his stuff play up. That has enabled the 6'3" righty to steadily improve his command since his prep days, now projecting above average in that regard after dropping his walk rate under 5% in 2026. As an athletic, projectable righty who pounds the zone with two plus pitches, Kuhns has every chance to become a #2 starter in the big leagues and will just need to bring along his changeup and stay healthy in order to reach his ceiling. After striking out 31% of his opponents in SEC play compared to just a 4.8% walk rate, going up against some of the best hitters in the country in hitter-friendly conditions, he should move relatively quickly through the minors.

2-50: SS Rocco Maniscalco, Oxford HS [AL]
Slot value: $1.98 million. Signing bonus: $3.2 million ($1.22 million above slot value).
My rank: #64. MLB Pipeline: #49. ESPN: #25.
One of the most polarizing prospects in the class who ranked as high as #25 on ESPN and as low as #100 on Baseball America, Rocco Maniscalco got paid at the top of that range with a massive over slot signing bonus befitting of roughly the #30 pick, higher than Cardinals CBA pick Tegan Kuhns eighteen slots higher. Similar to his volatile final draft rankings, Maniscalco also saw his overall stock swing up and down throughout his prep career. Originally a member of the 2027 class, he reclassified to the 2026 class and instantly became not only the youngest player in the class, but once the Cardinals called his name, the youngest player ever drafted at seventeen years and two months old. Despite being up to two years younger than some of his competition on the showcase circuit, he performed well in front of national evaluators to push himself into the first round conversation. Back home in Alabama, he seemed to be trying too hard for much of his senior season and his stock slipped in the eyes of some, but a strong finish where he looked more like the player evaluators project him to be, followed by a strong showing at the MLB Draft Combine in June righted the ship. Maniscalco is still very much a kid, but the upside is already apparent. He has grown into average power already and popped for some impressive exit velocities at the Combine, helping him project for at least above average power at physical maturity if not plus. The hit tool has been more uneven against older competition, as he gets his linear left handed swing on plane effectively but can be a touch slow to get going, hurting him against higher velocity. Those lower on him aren't yet willing to roll the dice on his hitting ability, but when St. Louis compares him to high school juniors his age, they think the approach stacks up well and that with another year of seasoning, he'd be a fine contact hitter. While the bat requires some projection and the Cardinals are buyers, the glove brings more certainty. The Alabama native is a fantastic defender at shortstop, showing off elite reactions, smooth glovework, and great body coordination to make every play that comes his way. With a plus arm to boot, he has a chance to win Gold Gloves at the six. He's an average runner, but that's never slowed down his glove.

CBB-68: OF Andrew Williamson, Central Florida
Slot value: $1.29 million. Signing bonus: $1.29 million.
My rank: #55. MLB Pipeline: #52. ESPN: #50.
Heading to the college hitting ranks, St. Louis brings in a proven outfield bat in Andrew Williamson. After an unremarkable freshman season in which he started most of the Knights' games in the outfield, he broke out as a sophomore and never looked back, slashing .337/.445/.653 with 29 home runs in 110 games over the past two seasons. It's a visually appealing operation even if not all scouts love its function, with a significant barrel tip that leads into a whippy, powerful left handed swing producing plus power that he taps consistently in games. Hitches like that are generally frowned upon, as they can leave hitters susceptible to quality stuff if their timing isn't quite right, but Williamson has performed everywhere including in Big 12 weekend play (.306/.430/.579) generally against better pitching as well as in the Cape Cod League (.265/.393/.510), so there is no reason to think he'll slow down any time soon. He can be a bit aggressive at the plate but it's controlled aggression, still drawing his walks and keeping his strikeout rates reasonable despite just average bat to ball. By doing so, Williamson rarely misses his pitch to hit and consistently does damage. He's an average overall defender with average speed and glovework, though his above average arm gives him some edge and will help him profile as a solid right field defender or a fringy center field defender. The St. Petersburg, Florida native is young for the class, actually getting drafted on his 21st birthday back in July, giving the Cardinals a little extra time to clean up his operation while maintaining the impressive impact he generates with the stick. If it clicks, Williamson could threaten for 25-30 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages.

CBB-72: RHP Dawson Montesa, West Virginia
Slot value: $1.17 million. Signing bonus: $850,000 ($324,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #161. ESPN: #148.
St. Louis knew they needed to start saving some money after the big Rocco Maniscalco signing, so after Andrew Williamson's at-slot bonus, they took a haircut on Dawson Montesa and gave him late third round money, roughly the value of the #93 pick here at #72. Montesa was well-regarded in scouting circles around the country and goes a bit earlier than expected here, and the Cardinals believe they have a lot to work with. He began his career closer to home at Adelphi University on Long Island, where he slashed his ERA from 7.36 as a freshman to 1.99 as a sophomore and set the school's single season strikeout record with 105 in 2025, highlighted by a seventeen K performance against Bentley (Mass.) University. Transferring to West Virginia, he was inconsistent throughout the 2026 season but had several highs including an eleven strikeout performance at Kennesaw State and 5.1 shutout innings against Troy in the College World Series. Montesa works with a mid 90's fastball that touches 98 at peak and can soar past hitters with flat angle and nice riding action up in the zone, giving it similar action to CBA pick Tegan Kuhn's fastball. He has a sharp curveball that misses bats and complements it with a shorter sweeping slider, though he has slightly better feel for the former, then rounds things out with a solid changeup that should be average with a little pro cleanup. Montesa's command can come and go, as evidenced by six outings of four or more walks juxtaposed against three outings of six or more innings with zero or one walks. The 6'1" righty is an elastic mover on the mound but doesn't always repeat his release point, so that command will likely be the determining factor as to whether he remains a starter in pro ball. St. Louis likes his athleticism and believes pro coaching can streamline things enough to get to the average command he would need. With his arm strength, four pitch mix, and impressive ability to get down the mound and create a unique look for hitters, he has many of the ingredients necessary to start. To top it off, the Queens native is extremely young for a college junior, not turning 21 until nearly two months after the draft and coming in younger than a significant number of sophomores in the 2027 class. Sans the command, this is not too dissimilar a prospect from Kuhns.

3-86: OF Caden Ferraro, Texas Tech
Slot value: $943,600. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($143,600 below slot value).
My rank: #81. MLB Pipeline: #143. ESPN: #55.
This is a fun pick for the Cardinals, giving them a lefty slugger to stack up against the great right handed bats in recent Cardinals history like Mark McGwire, Albert Pujols, and if things build on 2026, perhaps Jordan Walker. Caden Ferraro spent two years at Blinn JC in Texas, where he tormented Texas JuCo pitching to the tune of 36 home runs and a .376/.497/.733 slash line across 120 games, finally giving opposing coaches a chance to breathe when he transferred to Texas Tech for his junior year in 2026. He kept hitting against stronger competition in Lubbock, slashing .374/.481/.604 across 52 games though he hit just eight home runs. Ferraro is a model darling that scores just about as well as you can across the board with his batted ball data. The Houston-area native doesn't chase, leading to a nice 16.7% walk rate in 2026, but he also doesn't swing and miss so he struck out just 15.5% of the time including only 16.4% against strong pitching in Big 12 play. That combination of selectivity and barrel accuracy helped him hit at least .369 with at least a .481 on-base percentage in each of his three college seasons, but the raw power might be even more impressive. Ferraro employed more of a contact-oriented approach in 2026, seeing the ball where it was pitched and just dumping the barrel on it to find 19 doubles in those 55 games and in fact 54 in 175 career games. When he does turn on the ball, though, you might not see it again. The raw power is easily plus, registering elite exit velocities north of 110 miles per hour regularly including with a wood bat at the MLB Draft Combine. The Cardinals will look to help him tun on more baseballs in games to tap more of that power, hoping to leverage his excellent plate discipline and barrel accuracy to do so without sacrificing the hit tool. There is a chance for 30+ home runs off his bat while still hitting for average, which would make him a middle of the order threat. All of the pressure will be on the bat because Ferraro is a defensive liability, to pit it lightly. He's a well below average athlete whose lack of speed makes left field difficult, and at this point even his first base defense needs significant refinement. We'll see what direction St. Louis takes him in the field to avoid a career as a DH only, but if he hits like expected, it won't really matter.

4-114: SS Dee Kennedy, Kansas State
Slot value: $684,300. Signing bonus: $684,300.
My rank: #72. MLB Pipeline: #79. ESPN: #131.
This is a really nice value pick for the Cardinals in the fourth round. Dee Kennedy started his career at Texas, but hit just .209/.329/.351 with four home runs as a freshman and transferred to Kansas State. He took a big step forward in his first year in Manhattan, hitting .279/.381/.505 with eleven home runs, then exploded to .357/.461/.733 with 20 home runs as a junior to rocket up draft boards. Kennedy is not huge at 5'11", but with a strong build he can really turn on the ball and make it jump. While the raw power may be average, he has done a great job tapping it in games and ran some nice top-end exit velocities at the Combine. He's so passive at the plate that he can sometimes get himself in trouble in deep counts, especially with more average bat to ball, but he has been improving in that regard and did a nice job especially against offspeed stuff in 2026, which you don't alway see at this level. Kennedy will need to find a balance in his approach, and if he does he has a chance to be a really nice all-around hitter. The Fort Worth native is an aggressive runner who uses his speed well on the bases, swiping 22 bags in 2026, and it serves him well on the infield as well. While he might be a little stretched at shortstop, he may fit better as a second or third baseman with average to above average defensive tools across the board. In all, Kennedy is a jack of all trades type with no plus tool but also no tools below average, giving him a chance to contribute on both sides of the baseball. He could be a 15-20 homer bat with solid batting averages and a handful of stolen bases.

5-146: RHP Cal Randall, UCLA
Slot value: $501,300. Signing bonus: $501,300.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #218. ESPN: #224.
In a Cardinals draft class full of fascinating profiles, Cal Randall might not be as famous as other names but similarly brings a really interesting profile. He has improved significantly in each of his three seasons at UCLA, from barely pitching as a freshman in 2024 to becoming a reliable reliever in 2025 to really breaking out further in 2026 with an absurd 44.2% strikeout rate. Randall keeps things very, very simple – just chuck it and see what happens. His elite fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and touches 101 at peak, exploding past hitters with riding action and excellent extension. It's a true 80 grade pitch in every sense of the word by college standards, and if he can add a couple more ticks of velocity in pro ball, it could be an 80 grade fastball at the major league level. Randall knows just what kind of weapon he has, and he throws it almost exclusively. Even with nine of every ten pitches being fastballs, hitters still can't touch it. The Northern California native also throws a tight slider that stands out more for its velocity than its movement, looking like a potential above average pitch when he locates it but often playing below that. His changeup is a firm offering that he barely uses. The 6'4" righty has below average command as well, often rushing his delivery and missing in all directions with his fastball and looking even less confident in his little-used offspeed stuff. Interestingly enough, despite what on the surface looks like a clear-cut relief profile, the Cardinals actually plan to develop him as a starter. He has the requisite size, clocking in at 235 pounds, and nobody questions the arm strength. He will need to completely overhaul his offspeed stuff and take several steps forward in that regard to have a chance, as well as with his command, but if the Cardinals can get it done, more power to them. The more likely scenario is that he reverts back to relief, where even minor steps forward with his breaking ball and command could make him a high leverage reliever.

11-324: RHP Jacob Haley, South Alabama
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $215,000 ($65,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: #248.
The Cardinals opened up the second half of the draft with what they believe is a very sneaky sleeper pick. Jacob Haley has battled injuries throughout his amateur career, with his 14.2 innings in 2026 actually representing a career-high after totaling thirteen over his first two seasons. For the paltry 27.2 innings he's been on the mound at school, plus another thirteen (very successful) innings in the Cape Cod League, he has showcased very impressive stuff. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 at peak, coming in with great ride and extension from a lower release. He shows a hard slider in the mid 80's and a hammer curveball in the low 80's, both of which can miss bats, and together he ran an impressive 32.3% strikeout rate in 2026. It's hard to get a read on his command given his sporadic time on the mound, so it should probably be chalked up as fringy at this point with the potential to improve significantly if he can stay on the mound. The 6'3" righty has an easy delivery and the athleticism that helped him reach campus at South Alabama as a two-way player, lending further hope to improved command. Haley has all the ingredients to not only start, but succeed in the majors as a potential #3 or #4 starter. Of course, in order to get there he'll need to do a complete 180 with his health, with a resume that includes Tommy John surgery and other forearm problems.

Sunday, October 11, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

Full list of draftees

With three of the first 53 picks, Arizona had some extra draft capital to play with. While I liked a few individual picks, including first rounder Ryder Helfrick and eleventh rounder Cody Boshell, I do think they came away with a bit less upside than they might have if they played the draft more aggressively. They spent their exact bonus pool without using any of the overage space, which may or may not have been the plan with seventeenth rounder Rylan Alaniz going unsigned and heading to Texas State instead, but it does represent a missed opportunity. In this class, four of the five highest bonuses went to position players, but the depth of the class is mostly pitching representing eight of the next nine highest bonuses.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-15: C Ryder Helfrick, Arkansas
Slot value: $5.24 million. Signing bonus: $5.24 million.
My rank: #8. MLB Pipeline: #11. ESPN: #14.
The Diamondbacks got their draft going in a big way, making one of my favorite picks of the first round. Ryder Helfrick was a well-known prep prospect out of Northern California in 2023, but made it to campus at Arkansas where he has blossomed into one of the best amateur catchers in the country. He struggled as a freshman in 2024, but turned it on over the past two seasons and slashed .293/.418/.587 with 33 home runs in 123 combined games. Helfrick has a ferocious right handed swing that channels all of the strength in his 6'1", 210 pound frame into plus power that he taps regularly, power that will absolutely play with wood bats and against pro pitching. While he is power over hit, he has cleaned up his approach significantly in Fayetteville and dropped his strikeout rate from 26.9% as a freshman to 22.5% as a sophomore to 19.1% as a junior, meanwhile upping his walk rate from 13.5% to 13.6% to 19.1% in the same span. There are still holes in his swing, as he can aggressively hunt for power and pull off the ball, leaving him especially susceptible to offspeed stuff away, but he impressively made adjustments and actually ran better strikeout and walk rates in SEC play (18.6% and 20.0%) than outside of it. In all, it's a very attractive offensive profile that could hit 30+ home runs per year with reasonable on-base percentages, which is plenty of offense at the games toughest defensive position. Helfrick has come a long way behind the plate and now looks the part of a plus defender back there, showing much more agility and consistency with his glovework while retaining the cannon arm he has always had. Catchers almost always fall into one of two categories: glove-first guys who you just hope and pray will hit enough to keep their glove on the field, or bat-first guys who you know will hit but who may be forced off the position. Helfrick is neither, combining plus power and a solid hit tool with plus defense to give him the upside as a potential All Star catcher. How he adjusts to pro ball and closes up the holes in his swing will determine if he reaches that ceiling.

CBA-31: RHP Blake Bryant, Citizens Christian HS [GA]
Slot value: $3.12 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($368,300 below slot value).
My rank: #45. MLB Pipeline: #65. ESPN: #84.
It's not often you see a high school pitcher go in this range of the draft and sign below slot, but the Diamondbacks cut a nice little deal with Blake Bryant to sign him away from a Clemson commitment for roughly the value of the #36 pick here at #31. Bryant is a massive upside play as a relatively raw, ultra talented pitcher from a small town in South Georgia. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 96, which is nice velocity for now but almost certain to continue to climb as he develops. He's already getting better at holding that velocity deeper into games and has plenty room to fill out his lanky frame. The 6'6" string bean shows a 12-6 curveball and a sweeping slider that both show considerable upside, though they can pop out of his hand a little and break early at times. He adds a changeup, but it's a fourth pitch at this point. Not terribly unexpected for a player from a small town off the beaten path, his mechanics are relatively raw with significant head whack and an arm slot that can wander from pitch to pitch. However, Bryant's arm talent is absolutely undeniable and just a short time in a pro development system could help him leap forward as a pitcher. He's very athletic on the mound and comes with significant projection, looking like a potential ace to those highest on his upside. Arizona will develop him deliberately and patiently to help him reach that lofty ceiling, starting with sharpening his offspeed stuff, streamlining those mechanics, and feeding him plenty of steak and eggs. Bryant is slightly old for a high school draftee and turned 19 in August.

2-53: SS Carson Kerce, Georgia Tech
Slot value: $1.85 million. Signing bonus: $1.9 million ($51,800 above slot value).
My rank: #97. MLB Pipeline: #114. ESPN: #122.
Carson Kerce was a big helium name late in the draft cycle, one who ranked outside the top 100 on most public boards, barely snuck into my top 100, and ultimately went in the second round. He did so by improving in each of his three seasons in Atlanta, jumping from a .282/.392/.366 line with two home runs as a freshman to .313/.411/.475 with four home runs as a sophomore last year to an exceptional .384/.473/.679 with eleven home runs this year as a junior. Kerce only checks in at 5'11" but packs a punch at the plate with a simple approach from the right side: if he likes it, he drops his barrel to the baseball and drives through it, rarely looking to do too much and instead making a ton of contact right on the barrel. He'll take walks when he doesn't get what he likes, but when he does, he doesn't let too many hittable pitches go by and happily jumps on strikes. That approach has worked extremely well in college, running low strikeout rates and even finishing second in all of Division I with 29 doubles in 61 games. The power has always been well below average, but he found the barrel so often in 2026 that it's hard to discount at least some impact potential. While he spread his home runs around the field with metal bats in 2026, the power will probably primarily come to the pull side with wood. Earlier in the seasons, most projections would have had him at five to ten home runs per season in the big leagues, but his strong 2026 has those most bullish on him (including the Diamondbacks, obviously) thinking he could pop for double digits more often than not. Kerce played third base earlier in his Georgia Tech career and took over at shortstop in 2026, where his gritty style of play helps him project as fringe-average at the position. More realistically, his actions may be just a bit stretched at shortstop, so there is a reasonably good chance he slides off to second or third base in the long run. The Atlanta-area native projects as a utility infielder at his floor or, if the impact continues to play with wood like the Diamondbacks expect, a high average starter somewhere on the infield.

3-88: OF Brayden Dowd, Florida State
Slot value: $915,100. Signing bonus: $775,000 ($140,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #178. ESPN: #128.
Brayden Dowd is an interesting one with a bit of a polarizing profile, but one the Diamondbacks really like. He's been all over the country already, growing up in the Detroit area before beginning his career at Southern Cal. He was one of the Trojans' best hitters especially in his sophomore 2025 season, then transferred across the country to Florida State for his junior 2026 season. A solid year in Tallahassee cemented him as a potential top five round prospect, though going here in the third round was a bit sooner than many expected. Dowd does a lot of things well on the field even if he lacks a single standout tool. A very patient hitter, he draws a ton of walks (21.2% walk rate) and makes good contact against velocity, though it's more average against offspeed. Like Carson Kerce, he doesn't try to do too much at the plate and works through the ball with an all fields, line drive approach from the left side. That approach has limited his power output in college, but the exit velocities are indicative of potential average power and some 15+ homer seasons in the big leagues if he tries to turn on it more often. Dowd is an average runner whose speed plays up due to his instincts, going ten for ten in stolen bases in 2026 while getting good jumps in center field. A more explosive defender may push him to left field in the long run, but for now he'll get every chance to stick in center field which would of course help the bat profile better. If Dowd moves to left field, he probably won't hit quite enough to play every day, and the Arizona system is always stacked with great up the middle players. The Diamondbacks do appear confident that he'll continue to put things together at the plate and love his makeup.

4-116: RHP Josh McDevitt, Missouri
Slot value: $670,900. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($120,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #236. ESPN: unranked.
Moving to the college pitching side, the Diamondbacks found a lot they like in Josh McDevitt. He barely pitched over his first two seasons and struggled when he did get on the mound, but took a huge step forward as a junior and served as Missouri's Friday night starter. McDevitt leans primarily on his fastball, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching 97 at peak with ride to zip past bats. It got great results in 2026 despite high usage, consistently missing bats and profiling as a potentially plus pitch. He shows an inconsistent curveball with nice snap at times, though the pitch is inconsistent and he does not command it as well as his fastball. He rounds it out with a solid sinking changeup that has been a bit more reliable than the curveball, though both secondaries play second fiddle to the fastball. The 6'2" righty works from a three quarters delivery and gets nice extension combined with a lower release point, both of which are factors in helping the fastball play up and giving Arizona a lot to work with. The command is fringy but he holds his stuff well over his starts, giving Arizona the ingredients it needs to turn him into a solid big league starting pitcher. To get there, he'll need to get more consistent with his curveball and his command, and given that he is very old for a college junior having turned 22 a month before the draft, he has a little bit less time to work on everything. If starting doesn't work out, the fastball quality should take yet another step forward in the bullpen and he won't need to lean much on his offspeed stuff.

5-148: RHP LJ Mercurius, Oklahoma
Slot value: $491,700. Signing bonus: $450,000 ($41,700 below slot value).
My rank: #127. MLB Pipeline: #186. ESPN: #187.
From Paul Sewald to Ryne Nelson to Tommy Pham, Phoenix's desert brother Las Vegas has provided the Diamondbacks several players in recent years. LJ Mercurius will make one more. After graduating from Faith Lutheran in Sin City, he stayed home to play at UNLV with his brother Xander for his first two years of college. A strong sophomore season earned the brothers the opportunity to transfer to Oklahoma, where LJ came out of the gate red hot with a dominant run through non-conference play (4-0, 0.39 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 34/6 K/BB in 23.1 IP against Oklahoma State, Coppin State, Gonzaga, and Santa Clara) and established himself as a potential second round pick. SEC play was a different story as he got knocked around to an 8.92 ERA in 35.1 innings, resetting his draft stock, but he did put an exclamation mark on his season by tossing 5.2 innings of one run ball against UNC in the College World Series Finals to earn the National Championship-clinching win for the Sooners. Mercurius works with the same low to mid 90's fastball as Josh McDevitt, similarly peaking at 97, though his movement is a little more generic. He has a sharp slider that missed mid-major bats in bunches and also shows a solid changeup, making for a very solid three pitch mix. Mercurius throws plenty of strikes but his control is well ahead of his command, leading to too many pitches catching the heart of the plate and leading to his tendency to get blown up at times. Arizona likes his uptempo, athletic delivery that should be conducive to further velocity gains as he adds to his skinny 6'2" frame, giving him a chance to stick as a starter if he tightens things up a little bit. If he moves to the bullpen, he can lean on his quality fastball/slider combination.

11-326: 1B Cody Boshell, Bishop Snyder HS [FL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $750,000 ($600,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: #142.
Arizona spent most of the first half of the draft saving money, leaving them plenty of space to go over slot and make some splashes in the back half. Cody Boshell wound up the only big splash there, taking early fourth round money (roughly the value of the #105 pick) to sign away from a Tennessee commitment here in the eleventh round. He brings huge upside in somewhat of a Jac Caglianone package, without Caglianone's sky high chase rates. Boshell is a 6'3", 220 pound slugger with a violent left handed swing that produces plus raw power with strong biometric data to back it up. He gets the ball in the air as well, making for a potential 30 home run bat if things break right. Additionally, Boshell performed well on the 2025 summer showcase circuit and created many fans out of those who saw him on the right days, perhaps none more so than in Arizona. More advanced pitchers will probably find holes in his swing and force him to refine his operation a little bit, and his advanced age (he turned 19 in May) gives him a hair less development time than others in his graduating class. Defensively, the Jacksonville native lacks significant upside due to fringy speed and is raw regardless, showing choppy actions in the outfield and an aggressive style of play that will need to be toned down as the game speeds up in pro ball. He does have a plus arm that was up to 96 on the mound, where he was a significant pitching prospect with a sharp breaking ball and a sturdy frame. The Diamondbacks see a physical left handed power hitter with a track record of performance and see him hitting in the middle of their order in a few years.

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

The Miami Marlins executed a clear strategy here to put together a very interesting draft class. First, they surprisingly landed one of the top players in the entire class and a hometown kid in the middle of the first round, then selected back to back safe bet back-end starting pitchers. With their first four picks, they saved an impressive $900K, which they spent on a slew of sleeper prep prospects. Contact/speed bat Wessley Roberson was the most expensive, but they also brought in real deep sleepers in a pair of raw, projectable trees in the 6'6" Nic Tolbert and the 6'8" Bane Barker later on, then finished with two-way threat Joey Lawson. I of course love getting Jacob Lombard below slot, though I am otherwise a bit underwhelmed with a class that featured four of the first 87 picks and all the capital that comes with it. If any of these preps hit, though, it will be a success.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-14: SS Jacob Lombard, Gulliver Prep HS [FL]
Slot value: $5.44 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($444,900 below slot value).
My rank: #5. MLB Pipeline: #5. ESPN: #6.
Five years ago, the Marlins surprised the baseball world by floating potential top-five pick and star prep Kahlil Watson down to the #16 overall pick. While Watson was eventually traded to Cleveland and hasn't quite put things together yet, the Marlins are following an eerily similar path in 2026. Jacob Lombard too was universally regarded as one of the top preps in the country, with serious interest in the top five picks and most major outlets ranking him in the top six or seven. Not only did he make it down to fourteen, he even signed below slot value. Previously a Miami commit, he'll hop off I-95 a few exits earlier on his way to LoanDepot Park instead. So who is the new hometown star? Jacob Lombard is the younger brother of Yankees rookie star George Lombard Jr. and the son of former big league outfielder George Lombard Sr., and he is now the highest drafted of the trio. Long a famous name in the class, he had eyes on the #1 overall pick until a so-so summer knocked him down just a few pegs behind rising names like Roch Cholowsky and Grady Emerson. He swung and missed just a bit more than scouts hoped, so he headed back to Miami with something to prove. At Gulliver Prep just two miles from the University of Miami campus and eight miles from LoanDepot, he showed scouts everything they wanted to see with a strong senior season where he stood out as the clear cut best hitter in the state of Florida. Listed at 6'3", 195 pounds, he is as tooled up as they come with strength, athleticism, and projection to dream on. He stands out for plus power from the right side, a product of his strength and great leverage in his right handed swing. He taps that power consistently by getting the ball up in the air and effectively channeling his strength through the baseball, making for an extremely dangerous bat. The hit tool may have more questions and is likely the reason he lasted about a half dozen-plus picks past where he was expected to go. Lombard has a long track record with the bat on the showcase circuit, but it appears teams may be slightly more turned off by the aforementioned swing and miss he showed in the summer of 2025 that caused several them to look elsewhere in the top ten picks. The swing can get grooved at times and pro pitchers will begin to attack any holes they can find in that swing. Lombard is a good hitter with a good plan at the plate, and at just 18 years old, he has plenty of time to iron things out and the Marlins are confident he will. Beyond the bat, the Miami native is an easy plus runner who can wreak havoc on the bases, and even if he slows down with added strength, he should continue to be a big asset in that regard. Lombard is also a very smooth defender at shortstop with excellent body control, smooth actions, and the ability to throw from multiple angles, making him a near-lock to stick at the toughest infield position. The arm is closer to average, but it should be no issue. Lombard projects for 30+ home runs annually with decent on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases, making for an All Star shortstop ceiling albeit with some risk in the hit tool.

2-52: LHP Ethan Kleinschmit, Oregon State
Slot value: $1.89 million. Signing bonus: $1.89 million.
My rank: #100. MLB Pipeline: #69. ESPN: #72.
After swinging for the fences with Jacob Lombard, Miami went with a safer profile for their second pick in Ethan Kleinschmit. He began his career at Linn-Benton JC in Oregon, where he dominated West Coast JuCo competition as a freshman and earned the opportunity to transfer fifteen minutes down the road to Oregon State. He has been a staple in the Beavers rotation for the past two seasons, making 32 starts and going 17-7 with a 3.64 ERA and an impressive 210 strikeouts over 168 innings. Kleinschmit won't overpower hitters, sitting in the low 90's and touching 95 at peak, but the fastball has been effective against college hitters. His best pitch is a big diving slider with great depth that he'll throw to both lefties and righties, sending them away from lefties or down at the back foot of lefties. The Oregon native also throws a solid changeup that gives him a very effective third pitch, making for a very strong baseline for an innings eating starting pitcher. Kleinschmit has a very simple delivery and repeats it well, looking like he's just tossing it in there and maintaining his stuff deep into starts. That leads to above average command and helps him execute all three pitches consistently. The 6'3" lefty is plenty durable and projects as a prototypical #4 starter who could be one of the rare modern pitchers to eclipse two hundred innings every year. There is a lot of Patrick Corbin in this profile and Marlins fans may see him in Riverside sooner rather than later.

CBB-71: RHP Ryan Peterson, Sam Houston State
Slot value: $1.19 million. Signing bonus: $897,500 ($295,100 below slot value).
My rank: #104. MLB Pipeline: #86. ESPN: #154.
Heading back to the safe bet starting pitcher wellspring, Miami went a little under slot value to bring in Ryan Peterson. He hit campus in 2024 and turned 20 midway through his freshman season, where he served as an effective swingman, then joined the rotation full time as a sophomore but to middling results. He went undrafted and returned to Huntsville, where he took a big step forward as a junior by cutting his ERA almost in half and bumping his strikeout rate from 21.4% to 28.5%. Like Ethan Kleinschmit, he sits in the low 90's and touching 95 with his fastball albeit with ordinary life. While Kleinschmit makes his money on his slider, Peterson shows off a plus curveball with sharp, deep bite to dive under bats. He also turns over an average slider, though despite his two-breaking ball mix and advanced age, he doesn't have much of a changeup. The 6'3" righty has a sturdy frame and an athletic delivery with nice extension, putting a little extra hop on his pitches, and he fills up the strike zone with above average command. Despite carrying 215 pounds on that big 6'3" frame, he moves like a much smaller pitcher and his athleticism was certainly appealing to the Marlins. He's advanced with a good fastball and a pair of breaking balls, though having turned 22 back in April, he'll need to find a changeup relatively quickly as he moves up through the system. He'll look to join Kleinschmit in the back half of the Miami rotation in short order.

3-87: SS Cam Kozeal, Arkansas
Slot value: $929,700. Signing bonus: $772,500 ($157,200 below slot value).
My rank: #118. MLB Pipeline: #115. ESPN: #124.
Continuing with the savings, Miami targets its first college bat in Cam Kozeal here in the third round. Kozeal has long been a famous name, earning national exposure as a potential top five round pick out of high school in Omaha back in 2023. He made it to campus at Vanderbilt and earned significant playing time as a freshman, but transferred to Arkansas after one season. There, he blossomed as a hitter by slashing .326/.399/.630 with 35 home runs in 122 games and improved from the #170 prospect on my 2023 draft rankings to my #118 prospect in 2026. A bit undersized at 5'10", he has filled out really nicely in Fayetteville and now packs 205 pounds on his strong, stocky frame. As he has gotten stronger, his swing has gotten whippier and his barrel heavier, generating higher exit velocities that helped him jump from fringy to average or even a tick above average power. He has always been a scrappy hitter who works his at bats while attacking hittable pitches, making adjustments and consistently making things happen. However, he did struggle a bit in SEC play in 2026 (.234/.302/.508) and hasn't hit too much over two summers in the Cape Cod League either (.225/.330/.351), potentially creating some pause when projecting his offensive upside. He's likely a 10-15 home run type who can get on base at a reasonable clip, a profile that could potentially play every day near the bottom of the order. Defensively, he's a bit stretched at shortstop and may fit better at second base, where his fringy athleticism and arm strength will be less exposed. The Marlins love his style of play and believe he will swing his way to a regular big league role as an offensive-minded second baseman.

4-115: OF Wessley Roberson, Glynn Academy [GA]
Slot value: $677,500. Signing bonus: $1.2 million ($522,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: #175.
After going at or below slot with each of their first four picks, the Marlins began to unload those savings on outfielder Wessley Roberson, an exciting athlete out of the same Glynn Academy in South Georgia that produced Adam Wainwright in 2000. He'll sign away from an LSU commitment for $1.2 million, roughly the value of the Marlins' #71 pick, and instead head about six hours south to Miami on I-95. For now, Roberson stands out for his hitting ability. He is a plus hitter who has hit everywhere he has gone, running excellent contact rates and fiercely working at bats to force his way on base. Working from a wide setup, he unloads a quick, effective left handed swing that gets the barrel long through the zone and effectively follows through the baseball. At this point, the power is below average as he waits to grow into his skinny six foot frame, but the swing should help him tap potentially fringe-average power as he fills out a little more and help him reach double digit home run totals. He is an easy plus runner who torments opposing pitchers and plays a mean center field, where he should stick in pro ball and provide value. While he was not highly ranked on most public boards, ESPN being the only place I saw that put him in the top 200, the Marlins are in love with his hitting ability and see him flying through the minors quicker than most high schoolers.

5-147: LHP Trey Beard, Florida State
Slot value: $496,400. Signing bonus: $493,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #134. ESPN: #198.
Heading back to the Sunshine State, Miami continued its roll of high-floor starting pitchers with Trey Beard. A native of Dunedin just north of St. Petersburg, he began his college career at FAU where he made thirty starts over two seasons, including an excellent sophomore season in Boca in which he went 7-1 with a 3.14 ERA and a sharp 118/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings. That caught the attention of the Florida State staff, which brought him back up north to Tallahassee where he again found success with another 97 strikeouts in 68 innings. Like Ethan Kleinschmit and Ryan Peterson, Beard doesn't throw very hard, sitting in the low 90's and touching 94 at peak. The fastball is effective when he locates it, but it gets hit pretty consistently when it catches too much plate. He shows a big 12-6 curveball with nice depth and can also turn it over into a fringy slider, but his best pitch is a plus changeup with parachute action seemingly slowing down as it heads towards the plate. Beard works from a very high slot that puts tough angle on his pitches, accentuating the vertical action on his curveball and changeup especially. In order to remain a starter, he'll need to maintain his above average command to keep his fastball and slider effective multiple times through a lineup. Shifting to the bullpen would hopefully get his fastball closer to the mid 90's and allow him to lean a little more on his changeup, but the Marlins would prefer his breaking balls take a step forward to become real weapons.

8-235: 1B Rintaro Sasaki, Stanford
Slot value: $239,200. Signing bonus: $210,200 ($29,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
The Marlins are buying low on one of the most legendary bats in Japanese amatuer history. Rintaro Sasaki hit 140 home runs, 140 home runs (one hundred and forty), in four years at Hanamaki Higashi High School in northern Japan, where his father previously coached Shohei Ohtani. Personally, I had to Google it and verify it in several different places before I could even begin to believe the 140 number was real. I still can't quite fathom how a kid could hit 140 home runs in high school, no matter how many times I repeat it in this writeup. The top prospect (obviously) in the 2024 NPB draft in Japan, he instead made shockwaves by withdrawing to attend Stanford. He arrived in Palo Alto with great fanfare as Baseball America's Preseason National Freshman of the Year, but has unfortunately hit to middling results in his two years stateside. He did take a step forward from his freshman (.269/.377/.413, 7 HR, 19.9% K) to his sophomore (.262/.403/.549, 16 HR, 19.4% K) seasons, but ultimately fell short of the towering expectations placed on him. Still, he finds himself here in the eighth round with the chance to recapture his former luster under a pro development program. Listed at a Prince Fielder-esque 6'1", 270 pounds, he stands out for one unsurprising thing: power. Sasaki has Hulk-like strength that produces elite exit velocities, making for plus-plus raw power that produced some of the highest exit velocities at the MLB Draft Combine in June, where he was one of just three hitters to send a baseball over 450 feet. In high school, he could meet a pitch anywhere in the zone and, if he made even decent contact, send it deep into the trees, parking lots, or whatever they put behind high school fields in Japan. At Stanford, more advanced pitching stayed off his barrel more frequently and limited his game power to merely plus, though he seemed much more comfortable in 2026 than he did in 2025. The Marlins believe the difficult transition across continents as a teenager may have slowed his development, and that in their system he can continue trending in the right direction perhaps faster than other college bats. He's just 21 years old still and won't turn 22 until the start of the 2027 season. Sasaki will of course have to hit, as he's a bottom of the scale athlete that will be limited to first base at best. Had he not signed, he could have gone back to Japan to play for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

9-265: 3B Nic Tolbert, Oktaha HS [OK]
Slot value: $210,200. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($387,300 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
With more savings to unload, Miami went for a sleeper signing in Nic Tolbert, a small town power bat from just outside of Muskogee, Oklahoma. Previously committed to Wichita State, he signed for late fourth round money (pick #128 value) here in the ninth round and will get to work pushing towards his lofty ceiling. Listed at 6'6", 210 pounds, he looks the part of a future big league slugger once he adds 20-30 pounds of good weight to that lanky frame. Unlike many tall sluggers, he has a direct left handed swing that helps him naturally tap his power rather than selling out and swinging through hittable pitches, providing a clear development path for the Marlins. He is untested against higher level arms and may take some time to work slowly up the minor league rungs, carrying plenty of risk as he makes the jump from Eastern Oklahoma to the pros. Defensively, Tolbert has seen time all over the field and comes to the Marlins as a third baseman, but could realistically land at any corner spot, infield or outfield. There is a wide array of outcomes here and a wide gap between his ceiling and his floor but if the Marlins think he'll hit, it's a worthwhile gamble for fourth round money. He is a little bit old for the class, turning 19 a few weeks after the draft.

12-355: RHP Bane Barker, Sandalwood HS [FL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($347,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
With unspent bonus pool money remaining heading into the back half of the draft, Miami came back to the Sunshine State to bring in Bane Barker, an uncommitted high school arm who signed for fifth round money here in the twelfth round. A Jacksonville native who attended powerhouse Sandalwood High School on the east side of the city, he is a late bloomer and a major project whom the Marlins believe is only scratching the surface of his potential. The fastball only sat in the mid 80's a year ago, only scraping the upper 80's over the summer, but he started throwing harder in the fall and eventually started touching 92-93 at peak, though the average velocity remains closer to 90. He adds a nice downer curveball that can disappear when he spins it right in addition to a solid slider and a developing changeup. The 6'8" righty is extraordinarily projectable, with the Marlins likely to do significant work cleaning up his delivery as he grows into his extra large frame and develops physically. For now, the command is fringy but Miami will be patient as he acclimates to pro ball. Much like Nic Tolbert, there is a massive gap between his floor and his ceiling and both are equally unproven, so this is really a lottery ticket purchased with the extra bonus pool money.

20-595: C Joey Lawson, Bishop Verot HS [FL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $196,500 ($46,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Miami finished things off with a surprising signing, grabbing one last Sunshine Stater in Joey Lawson. A product of Bishop Verot High School in Fort Myers, he seemed a long shot to sign away from a UNC commitment but Miami got it done as one of their final signings of the class and they didn't break the bank either. Lawson was a decorated two-way player who actually had significantly more interest as a pitching prospect, where his fastball reached 94 and his curveball looked like a hammer strikeout pitch. To me, he looked more natural on the mound as well, but Miami believes in the bat and will take the time to develop him that way. He's physically developed at 6'2", 215 pounds, showing natural power from the right side and creating plenty of leverage with his swing path. He's a heady ballplayer who looks to be reasonably advanced as a hitter, giving him a good shot to develop into an all-around threat at the plate. Lawson mostly played first base at Bishop Verot when he wasn't pitching, but Miami looks like they're going to try him out behind the plate. His short arm action on the mound looks conducive to the position and his sturdy frame appears a fit as well, making for an interesting experiment. Sticking behind the plate would of course buy more slack for the bat to develop and it's a nice bargain for just under $200,000. Lawson is a bit old for the class, having turned 19 a few weeks before the draft. If hitting doesn't work out, he can always fall back on pitching.