The Cubs have four prospects with serious impact potential, those being catcher Miguel Amaya, infielder Nico Hoerner, outfielder Brennen Davis, and pitcher Brailyn Marquez. However, aside from those four, there's not much to be excited about here. Ryan Jensen has that big fastball but hasn't proven much else, Chase Strumpf could be a useful bat, and Kohl Franklin has upside on the mound, but overall, it's a pretty shallow system that has long since been squeezed of big names like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Eloy Jimenez, and Dylan Cease. The good news is that a pair of late, late round arms in Jeffrey Passantino (40th round, 2017) and Jack Patterson (32nd round, 2018) have exceeded expectations in a big way.
Affiliates: AAA Iowa Cubs, AA Tennessee Smokies, High A Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Class A South Bend Cubs, short season Eugene Emeralds, complex level AZL and DSL Cubs
*Players are split by position and listed in order of a combination of closeness to the majors and prospect status. They are not ordered by prospect status alone.
Catcher
- Miguel Amaya (2020 Age: 21): There's not a lot to brag about in this system, but the Cubs do something a lot of teams don't, and that's a legitimate starting catching prospect. Miguel Amaya spent his age-20 season at High A Myrtle Beach, slashing .235/.351/.402 with eleven home runs and a 69/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games. Those numbers may look fairly ordinary, but for a 20 year old glove-first catcher in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League, you'll take that every time. Amaya is a lock to stay behind the plate with his innate feel for catching, and he shows strong plate discipline that helps his otherwise average bat play up. Just 21 for all of 2020, the Panamanian has the chance to hit 15-20 home runs annually in the majors while playing above average defense behind the plate.
- Ethan Hearn (2020 Age: 19): It wasn't the smoothest pro debut for the 2019 sixth rounder, as he slashed .163/.286/.275 with two home runs and a 36/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games in the complex level Arizona League, but he was also just 18 years old and fresh out of a Mobile, Alabama high school. Offensively, his power-oriented swing is his calling card, with the main question being how often he'll get to it against pro pitching due to so-so contact ability. He also has a strong arm behind the plate and is a good enough defensive catcher to stick there, but his game is raw overall and high school catchers don't have the strongest track record. This will be an interesting one to follow.
- Ronnier Quintero (2020 Age: 17): Turning just 17 years old right around the time this article is set to go out, Quintero is a long, long way off from the majors. He signed for $2.9 million out of Venezuela due to his big left handed power, though like Hearn, he will need to prove he can get to it because his swing has just a bit of length to it. He also has a strong arm and so-so defense, but it's not often you find catchers that young with that kind of power.
- Keep an eye on: Jhonny Pereda
Corner Infield
- Robel Garcia (2020 Age: 27): Garcia originally signed with the Indians in 2010, but he was released in 2013 and played in Italy for a few years. Back with the Cubs in 2019, he slashed .284/.369/.586 with 27 home runs and a 120/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 games with AA Tennessee and AAA Iowa, while a pair of major league call-ups in July and September saw him slash .208/.275/.500 with five home runs in 31 games. Playing every game like he has something to prove, Garcia can hit the ball a long way and was able to get to that power consistently even against advanced AAA pitching and a few times against MLB pitchers. He's played all around the infield, giving him a perfect power hitting utility infielder profile, even if his game does come with some swing and miss.
- Christopher Morel (2020 Age: 20-21): After a rough start to his pro career, Morel had a breakout 2019 with Class A South Bend, slashing .284/.320/.467 with six home runs and a 60/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games. Despite being listed at just 140 pounds, Morel is adept at finding the barrel and can spray line drives all over the field. The hope is that as he gets stronger and fills out his six foot frame, those doubles and triples will translate into home runs, ideally making him an all-around threat in the batter's box. He's also a sound defender who may be able to handle shortstop in a pinch, but he'll also be above average at third base. Overall, there's a lot to like with the Dominican, and if he comes back stronger in 2020, he could leap up prospect lists.
Keep an eye on: Jared Young, Cam Balego
Middle Infield
- Nico Hoerner (2020 Age: 22-23): If you're going to read about one player in this system, it's probably Hoerner that you want to research. A 2018 first round pick out of Stanford, he slashed .284/.344/.399 with three home runs and a 31/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at AA Tennessee before earning a major league call-up at 22 years old, in which he slashed .282/.305/.436 with three more home runs and an 11/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 games. An early 2020 NL Rookie of the Year candidate, he has a great chance to grab either the starting shortstop or second base position in Chicago with his exceptional, innate hitting ability. He finds the barrel with ease and is tough to strike out, though at a stocky 5'11" and with a line drive-oriented swing, he likely never hits more than 10-15 home runs per season, perhaps popping for close to 20 once or twice. He also doesn't walk much, so his value will come from high, fairly empty batting averages potentially north of .300. He's a bit stretched at shortstop and probably fits better at second base, but his feel for the game could help him be adequate at the former if the Cubs need him there. Overall, expect production similar to what Starlin Castro produced early in his Cubs career, but with more consistency.
- Zack Short (2020 Age: 24-25): Short slashed .235/.363/.404 with six home runs and a 72/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games between AA Tennessee, AAA Iowa, and rehab work in the Arizona League this year, showing power and sound infield defense while struggling to make contact consistently. That power and defense will help him get a shot at competing with Robel Garcia and Trent Giambrone for a utility infield spot, but he'll have to get to that power regularly if he wants to stick, and that may require him to tone down his swing a bit and focus more on contact. Expect him in the majors in 2020.
- Aramis Ademan (2020 Age: 21): For a kid who only just turned 21 in September, Ademan has sure been on prospect lists for a while. The kid who signed for $2 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2015 and who slashed .286/.365/.466 as an 18 year old in short season ball in 2017 has seen his bat stall a bit in High A, and he slashed just .221/.318/.334 with five home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 92/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at Myrtle Beach this year. That's a slight improvement from .207/.291/.273 at the same level a year ago, but the Cubs would really like to get that bat going. He has a simple swing, an advanced approach, and good feel for the game, but he has yet to prove that his tools themselves are strong enough to warrant his top prospect status. Defensively, he should stick at shortstop, which takes some pressure off the bat but he still needs to hit.
- Chase Strumpf (2020 Age: 22): The Cubs' second round pick in 2019 out of UCLA, Strumpf is a bat-first prospect who slashed .244/.374/.400 with three home runs and a 42/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games in his pro debut, mostly at short season Eugene but also with a few games in the Arizona League and at Class A South Bend. He's got some moderate pop and can find the barrel regularly, and his approach was a bit more advanced than expected once he got to pro ball. Strumpf will have to continue to make strides with his plate discipline in order to help his hit tool play up, as he's just an adequate defender at second base who can get the job done but not much more. Overall, he projects as a 15-20 home run bat with on-base percentages around .350 if he can indeed keep his aggressive approach in check.
- Keep an eye on: Trent Giambrone, Vimael Machin, Andy Weber, Pedro Martinez
Outfield
- Brennen Davis (2020 Age: 20): While Nico Hoerner is perhaps the system's top prospect, Brennan Davis has the highest upside of any hitter in this system. The 6'4" outfielder was all projection when he was drafted in the second round out of a Phoenix-area high school in 2018, and despite being limited by hand injuries in 2019, he still broke out to slash .305/.381/.525 with eight home runs and a 38/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games at Class A South Bend. He's an exceptional athlete that possesses big time power and speed, and by getting to that power consistently in a small sample in full season ball in 2019, his bust-risk is shrinking by the day. There is still a lot of work to be done, and Davis only turned 20 this offseason, but he has the upside of a 25-30 home run bat who can stick in center field.
- D.J. Artis (2020 Age: 23): A seventh round pick out of Liberty in 2018, Artis had a solid if unspectacular pro debut by slashing .259/.371/.341 with a pair of home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 67/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, mostly at Class A South Bend with a few in High A Myrtle Beach as well as complex level rehab work. Only 5'9", he's an extremely patient hitter who has posted high on-base percentages wherever he's gone, and his ability to find good pitches to hit helps his bat play up. On the flip side, he has virtually no power, so in order to provide value on offense, he has to continue to hit lots of singles, draw lots of walks, and steal bases when he can. A below average arm limits him to left field, but he's fast enough to be above average there and could work his way up as a fourth outfielder.
- Nelson Maldonado (2020 Age: 23-24): The Cubs may have gotten a steal here in the 21st round. Maldonado was a senior sign known for coming up with clutch hits at Florida, and he raked in his pro debut by slashing .332/.378/.456 with three home runs and a 35/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games between the complex level Arizona League, short season Eugene, and Class A South Bend. He turned 23 in August but he's already made up for lost time by mastering Class A and should begin 2020 in High A with the chance to hit his way to AA. He's a stocky guy at 5'10" who can hit for average power, but he shows an advanced approach and has simply hit everywhere he's gone. His ceiling is that of a platoon or bench bat in the outfield, but don't sleep on him.
- Cole Roederer (2020 Age: 20): Projected similarly to Brennen Davis when they were drafted fifteen picks apart in 2018, Roederer didn't quite get off to the hot start that Davis did, slashing .224/.319/.365 with nine home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 112/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at South Bend. He generates above average power from a smooth, clean left handed swing with the ability to get some serious loft and distance on the ball, but his raw approach at the plate held him back a bit in 2020 as pro pitching was able to get him to chase pitcher's pitches rather than finding his own pitch to hit. There's still a ton of upside here and he just turned 20 in September, so the upside remains intriguing even if the numbers haven't caught up yet.
- Nelson Velazquez (2020 Age: 21): Velazquez generates a ton of power from the right side of the plate, and few players in this system can make the ball jump off their bats like he does, but a raw approach has kept him from getting to that power consistently so far. In 2019, he slashed .288/.341/.441 with six home runs and an 82/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 games between rehab work and South Bend, giving some hope that 2020 could be a breakout year if he just hones that approach in a little bit. The shallowness of this system means that with only Brennen Davis truly ahead of him on the depth chart, increased production in 2020 could push him ahead of some of the other guys on this list and put an arrow next to his name.
- Keep an eye on: Donnie Dewees, Zac Taylor
Starting Pitching
- Adbert Alzolay (2020 Age: 25): Alzolay has been up and down and up and down for years, and while he's finally big league ready, it's hard to tell exactly what he's going to be. This year, he posted a 4.80 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 94/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings, mostly in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League, and he also carried a 7.30 ERA and a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 12.1 major league innings. Alzolay sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a hammer curveball that's tough to square up, but his changeup and command have lagged just enough to keep him from putting it all together at the upper levels. He's athletic and has shown the ability to throw consistent strikes in the past, so the Cubs have not given up on him as a starter, and a bit more consistency could make him a #3 or a #4 guy. However, there is risk that he's moved to the bullpen, where he could settle in as a fastball/curveball guy and perhaps become a set-up man. Either way, expect to see him in the majors in some capacity in 2020.
- Brailyn Marquez (2020 Age: 21): There is no question that Brailyn Marquez is the best pitching prospect in this system, which is why I'm listing him ahead of some more advanced pitchers in AA and AAA. He's a 6'4" lefty who pitched the whole 2019 season at 20 years old, posting a 3.13 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 128/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 103.2 innings between Class A South Bend and High A Myrtle Beach. He sits consistently in the mid 90's while bumping the upper 90's with his fastball, which has been enough to blow away hitters in A ball. He also adds a diving curveball that generates plenty of swings and misses, and getting a bit more consistent with it would give him two easy plus pitches. He also throws a changeup, though his command has been inconsistent and is probably the biggest thing he needs to work on. Even if the changeup never gets better than average, just refining his command a little bit could make him a #2 or #3 starter, and he should get an extended crack at AA in 2020, potentially even forcing a call-up if he does well.
- Cory Abbott (2020 Age: 24): A second round pick out of Loyola Marymount in 2017, Abbott has had success throughout his minor league career and posted a 3.01 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 166/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 146.2 innings at AA Tennessee in 2019. What he lacks in velocity he makes up for in pitching savvy, as he mixes his fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup well enough to keep hitters guessing despite the cutter being his only true out pitch. He's durable and throws plenty of strikes, giving him a high floor as a back-end starter or long reliever, though his ceiling is limited and he's probably a #4 at best.
- Tyson Miller (2020 Age: 24-25): Miller dominated at AA Tennessee this year (2.56 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 80/18 K/BB in 88 IP) but the story was not quite the same at AAA Iowa (7.58 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 43/25 K/BB in 48.2 IP). He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider, and his good-enough command was enough to make it play up and avoid hard contact in AA. However, hitters squared him up too much in AAA, as he allowed 13 home runs in those 48.2 innings, so he'll have to continue to improve on locating his fastball and avoiding barrels, especially as a fly ball pitcher. He may be ticketed for the bullpen, but another crack at AAA in 2020 could yield better results and help him on his way to being a #4 or #5 starter.
- Riley Thompson (2020 Age: 23-24): An eleventh round pick out of Louisville in 2018, injuries had limited how often Thompson was able to get on the mound for the Cardinals so the Cubs have brought him along slowly so far. He spent 2019 with Class A South Bend, where he was a bit older than most of his competition, but his 3.06 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 87/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings meant that the season was still a success. Then in the Midwest League championship, he struck out ten over five perfect innings to put an exclamation point on his season. Now healthy, he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a plus curveball that really dives when he's throwing it right. The changeup is coming along nicely, and with average command and a clean delivery, he has the makings of a #4 starter now that he's got some consistent innings under his belt. He turns 24 in July, so there's a bit of minor urgency to start climbing the ladder, and he'll start with High A in 2020.
- Kohl Franklin (2020 Age: 20): The Cubs think they've found lightning in a bottle in Kohl Franklin, a sixth round pick out of a Tulsa-area high school in 2018. He's a 6'4" righty that posted a 2.36 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 52/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 innings, mostly at short season Eugene, and he did so with a low to mid 90's fastball and advanced changeup that were too much for short season hitters. He's still working on his breaking ball and has yet to prove any kind of durability, but there is a ton to like in the projectable kid from Oklahoma.
- Ryan Jensen (2020 Age: 22): Projected as more a third round pick heading into the 2019 draft, Jensen was the first surprise of the day when the Cubs picked him with the 27th overall pick before he posted a 2.25 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a 19/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 innings with short season Eugene. He sits consistently and easily in the mid, and sometimes upper, 90's with his fastball, and he gets so much running action on it that it plays up to being a plus or even plus-plus pitch. He also adds a slider that looks like a plus pitch at times but which can flatten out, and he lacks much of a changeup at this point. The command is also very much a work in progress, as he was generally able to throw strikes at Fresno State but never could quite locate them, which will be hugely important in pro ball. It's more of a reliever-ish profile, especially considering he could hit 100 in short stints, but the Cubs obviously saw enough in him as a starter to take him in the first round and they will develop him as such for the foreseeable future.
- Richard Gallardo (2020 Age: 18): As far as 18 year old pitchers go, Richard Gallardo is pretty advanced. Pitching the 2019 season at 17 years old, the Venezuelan product had a 3.93 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 25/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings between complex ball and short season Eugene, while most pitchers his age are still in the Dominican Summer League. He comes in with a low 90's fastball, a good curveball, and an advanced changeup, all of which he commands moderately well. He'll likely return to Eugene in 2020 with the chance to pitch his way into full season ball, putting him ahead of schedule.
- Keep an eye on: Jeffrey Passantino, Justin Steele, Erich Uelmen, Jack Patterson, Keegan Thompson, Jeremiah Estrada, Yovanny Cruz
Relief Pitching
- Oscar De La Cruz (2020 Age: 25): De La Cruz signed with the Cubs way back in 2012, but he didn't reach full season ball until late in the 2016 season and was inconsistent in his first taste of AA in 2018. This past year, he spent most of the year with AA Tennessee while also making a few starts at High A Myrtle Beach, posting a 3.64 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 105/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings in 34 games (11 starts). He had his best performance in those 23 relief appearances, posting a 3.86 ERA and a 49/9 strikeout to walk ratio, and the Cubs will keep him there going forward. He's a 6'4" righty that comes at hitters with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, both of which have played up in the bullpen now that he doesn't have to worry about pacing himself. It will be interesting to see how he does in his first season as a full-time reliever in 2020, where he can hopefully keep his command above average while missing bats with his two above average pitches and potentially pitch his way into the Wrigley bullpen.
- Brendon Little (2020 Age: 23-24): Little has started 39 of the 40 games he's appeared in so far in his minor league career, but I'm preemptively moving him to the bullpen for this list because his profile fits much better there. Over 12 starts this year, he posted a 3.58 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 57/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.1 innings between complex level rehab, Class A South Bend, and High A Myrtle Beach, but he was hit around a bit at Myrtle Beach with a 5.95 ERA. Little can get into the mid 90's with his fastball consistently when he's at his best, but he's also fallen below that regularly in pro ball as a starter, while his typical power curveball has softened up. He has so much arm strength that the Cubs think they can still work with the command and deeper parts of his arsenal, but to me, the best option would be to just send him to the bullpen and let that fastball/curveball combination play up with less need for good command, which he does not have.
- Michael McAvene (2020 Age: 22): McAvene, a teammate of Riley Thompson at Louisville, was the Cubs' third round pick in 2019 and he started off with six strong performances in short season ball, posting a 1.42 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 20/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 12.2 innings. Although he was a reliever at Louisville, all six of those appearances were starts, though he also averaged just two innings per, so it's unclear what his role going forward will be. As a reliever, he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider that misses bats, with good enough command to make it work. As a starter, he'll need to add a changeup and maintain the sharpness of his stuff without losing command, which is a lot to work on but also completely possible. He probably ends up back in the bullpen eventually, and he could shoot up through the minors if the Cubs go that route, but deploying him as a starter could unlock upside that was previously untapped.
- Keep an eye on: James Norwood, Ben Hecht, Chad Hockin
Showing posts with label Nico Hoerner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nico Hoerner. Show all posts
Monday, November 11, 2019
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
Reviewing the Chicago Cubs Farm System
A few years ago, the Cubs' system included such big names as Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Gleyber Torres, Ian Happ, and...you get the point. That group of hitters has graduated and helped end the 108 year title drought (except for Torres), and the effect is essentially an empty farm system. Right now, few prospects project to be much more than marginal contributors in this pitching-heavy system, though there is some nice starting pitching depth and a couple of prospects look like they could break out next season. The Cubs' player development is pretty good, so some players down on the farm may outplay their prospect status as it stands today.
Affiliates: AAA Iowa Cubs, AA Tennessee Smokies, High A Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Class A South Bend Cubs, Short Season Eugene Emeralds, complex level AZL and DSL Cubs
The Headliner: C Miguel Amaya
Miguel Amaya's offensive breakout was the best thing to happen to the Cubs' system in 2018. A highly regarded catching prospect when signed out of Panama, Amaya has always been praised for his defense behind the plate but it took a little while for his bat to get going. That changed in 2018, when he slashed .256/.349/.403 with 12 home runs and a nice 91/50 strikeout to walk ratio in 116 games at Class A South Bend. Those numbers look rather pedestrian on the surface, but context makes them much better. Amaya played the entire season at age 19 and does not turn 20 until just before the 2019 season, making him one of the younger players in the Midwest League, his plate discipline improved greatly despite the jump from short season to full season ball, and he's a catcher; it's tough to find good defensive catchers who can also swing it. I like the way he gets extension on the ball after contact, and while he has some work to do on his overall hit tool, I think he can grow into a fine MLB catcher. There are plenty of farm systems with no projected starting-quality catchers anywhere, so having Amaya is definitely big. He's a long way off, but he's as good a bet as any teenage catcher to be a starter in the major leagues.
The Army of Back-End Workhorses: Alex Lange, Keegan Thompson, Cory Abbott, Thomas Hatch, Erich Uelmen, and Michael Rucker
These six pitchers all have a lot in common, which is why I grouped them together. Aside from being workhorses, all six pitched at Division I college programs and were drafted in either 2016 or 2017, and all but Rucker were taken in the top four rounds. Former LSU star Alex Lange is my personal favorite of the bunch, and he also has the best chance to be more than an innings eater. Lange was a first rounder in 2017 (30th overall) and spent all of 2018 at High A Myrtle Beach, going 6-8 with a 3.74 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 101/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings. While he doesn't burn up the radar guns, he throws hard enough in the low 90's and his curveball is a deadly weapon. The 20.4% strikeout rate was a little low, but the 7.7% walk rate was also low, especially when compared to his 9.2% rate from his final year at LSU. This I think has come with more consistency in his delivery, and I like his chances for improving further and becoming a mid-rotation starter. Behind Amaya, he might be the best prospect in the system. Former Auburn star Keegan Thompson was a third round pick (105th overall) in the same 2017 draft as Lange, but because he is an academic year older than Lange (seven months in reality), he made it up to AA in 2018. Between Myrtle Beach and AA Tennessee, he was 9-6 with a 3.61 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 115/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings, pitching a little better in High A than AA as expected. Like Lange, he has a great curve, but he also throws a good changeup and commands his pitches better than Lange, which makes up for the lower velocity. He just needs to improve his consistency, though I think his ceiling is lower than Lange's with the same floor. Former Loyola Marymount star Cory Abbott was a second round pick (67th overall) in the same 2017 draft as Lange and Thompson, though he split 2018 between Class A South Bend and Myrtle Beach. Partially due to starting lower in the minors, his numbers were the best of the three (8-6, 2.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 131/39 K/BB in 115 IP). He gets by more on mixing his pitches because none stand out as plus, giving A-ball hitters fits in the process, though his margin for error will shrink as he moves up. Consider Abbott a back-end option. Former Oklahoma State star Thomas Hatch was a third round pick (104th overall) in 2016. He had a pretty good year at Tennessee this year (8-6, 3.82 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 117/61 K/BB in 143.2 IP), showing the stuff and stamina to succeed but struggling a bit with his command. He looks like a #5 starter right now, but the walks are just a little high for his profile. Former Cal Poly star Erich Uelmen is the youngest of the six, having been drafted in the fourth round (135th overall) in 2017. He split 2018 between Myrtle Beach and Tennessee (8-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 82/30 K/BB in 89.1 total IP), generating tons of ground balls but also showing problems with durability. He has the highest reliever risk of the group. Lastly, former BYU star Michael Rucker, the oldest of the six, was an eleventh round pick in 2016 who rose to prominence with a big 2017 in A ball and some continued success at Tennessee in 2018 (9-6, 3.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 118/38 K/BB in 132.2 IP). He gets by more on command than stuff, and though he's on the older side (pitched almost the whole season at age 24), he hopes to be a #5 starter in the near future.
Waiting to Put It Together: RHP Adbert Alzolay, SS Aramis Ademan, RHP Duane Underwood, LHP Brendon Little, and RHP Bailey Clark
These five players have had varying levels of success but also have seen inconsistency, and we're waiting to see which ones can put it together and become stars or at least valuable players. We'll start with 23 year old pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay, one of the top prospects in the system. Signed from Venezuela before the 2013 season, he was not a notable prospect at all until his breakout in 2015 with Short Season Eugene, then he really broke out with a huge 2017 between Myrtle Beach and Tennessee (7-4, 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 108/34 K/BB in 114.1 total IP). I actually got to see his final start of the season that year in person, but he couldn't make it out of the second inning. He was off to a decent start at AAA Iowa in 2018 considering the difficult pitchers' environment in the PCL (2-4, 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 27/13 K/BB in 39.2 IP), but a lat injury ended his season just eight starts in. He's somewhat difficult to project on the mound, showing a hard low to mid 90's fastball, though its movement is just average, and a very good curveball. Despite his inconsistency on the mound his control is pretty good, and it seems that he runs into his biggest problems not when he starts walking everybody, but when his stuff flattens out and he becomes hittable. In that sense, even though he already has eight AAA starts under his belt, he still has a high ceiling and a low floor, with possible outcomes being anything from a #2 starter to a reliever. Meanwhile, another prospect with initials AA has been up and down for different reasons. 20 year old shortstop Aramis Ademan has always been a big prospect, playing above his age group every year. He performed well enough against advanced competition as an 18 year old in 2017 (.267/.324/.427), but 2018 has been a different story as a 19 year old in the High A Carolina League with Myrtle Beach: 3 HR, .207/.291/.273, 95/38 K/BB in 114 games. The teenager seemed to be having the bat knocked out of his hands by pitchers years older than himself, popping out and grounding out more than he has in the past. Offensively, the one saving grace for his season was a moderately high walk rate of 8.4%, which is nothing crazy but is enough to show he at least could recognize pitches and maintain an approach. Of course, given his age and good defense at a premium position, the poor 2018 does not erase his stock completely and another year in High A could pay dividends. There's a lot of pre-pitch movement in his swing and he seems to sometimes just be flinging the bat at the ball, so increasing strength and getting more consistent with his mechanics, when combined with his moderately good eye and approach, could facilitate a breakout. He's a long way off but he could be a starting shortstop down the road, or a solid bench option. Duane Underwood was taken in the second round (67th overall) of the 2012 draft, and the man has somehow figured out how to stay on prospect lists for seven years. Talk about prospect fatigue. The 24 year old has managed this by looking great on the right days and terrible on the wrong days, and in 2018 it came together for a 4-10 record, a 4.53 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 105/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings at AAA Iowa. He has been so inconsistent and the Cubs have been trying to develop him as a starter for so long that he ended up making five relief appearances at the end of the year, allowing six runs in seven innings (but striking out eight to just two walks). Overall, more than six years after he was drafted, it's hard to say what his impact will be; I'm guessing long reliever. Brendon Little was taken in the first round (27th overall) out of a Florida JuCo in 2017, which I saw as an overdraft. As it turns out, he struggled at Class A South Bend this year, going 5-11 with a 5.15 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 90/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings. The level wasn't supposed to be particularly difficult for him, a hard throwing JuCo lefty, but hitters were able to handle the high velocity and great curveball due to his lack of a changeup, good command, and movement on his fastball. Development of the changeup and of his command could still make him a mid-rotation starter, but I think his future lies in the bullpen. Lastly, Bailey Clark was a fifth round pick out of Duke in 2016, and statistically he has been all over the place. A 4.59 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 2017 gave way to a 1.89 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, as well as a 63/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings, in 2018. It's hard to know what to make of Clark going forward, but I think he has a pretty decent shot at being a useful reliever.
The Distant Future: LHP Brailyn Marquez, SS Nico Hoerner, OF Brennen Davis, OF Cole Roederer, OF Jimmy Herron, and OF Nelson Velazquez
These six players are so far off from the majors that anything can happen between now and then, though likely one or two could develop into very useful players. 19 year old lefty Brailyn Marquez had a breakout year in 2018, posting a 3.13 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 59/16 strikeout to walk ratio across 12 starts, mostly in Short Season ball at Eugene but also in Class A South Bend. His stuff all ticked up this year, and despite being a teenage lefty just learning to control his new velocity, he was surprisingly consistent in that he only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his twelve starts. A projectable 6'4", he figures to add even more velocity, and the command is pretty good for a pitcher in his position. He's a long way off and twelve starts in the low minors don't guarantee anything, but he's a breakout candidate for 2019 and could be the system's top prospect following the season should he do so. Perhaps the closest to the majors out of these six is this year's first round pick (24th overall), 21 year old infielder Nico Hoerner. Personally, I wasn't a big fan of the pick, though through a small sample his pro debut was a success: 2 HR, .327/.450/.571 slash line, 6 SB, 4/9 K/BB in 14 games. The Stanford product is considered a high floor, low ceiling player who could be the Cubs' starting second baseman down the road, showing no standout tools but doing a little bit of everything. If he doesn't start, I think he'll make a fine super-utility player along the lines of Houston's Marwin Gonzalez. With their 62nd and 77th overall picks, respectively, the Cubs took a couple of toolsy high school outfielders in Brennen Davis and Cole Roederer. While Davis is bigger and has more power potential, Roederer is faster and is a bit more advanced. I like Davis' upside better as a potential multi-category contributor, while Roederer might have a smoother road to the majors. Of course, with a couple of raw outfielders taken out of high school, the risk is very high and they have a lot to prove to be considered top prospects. The third round pick (98th overall), outfielder Jimmy Herron, comes from Duke and managed to slash .245/.333/.345 with three home runs in 33 games at South Bend this year, respectable for someone straight out of college ball. He's unlikely to ever start for the Cubs, but his strong plate discipline and hittability gives him a good shot at being a fourth outfielder in the fairly near future as a quick-to-the-big-leagues type. Lastly, another outfielder, 19 year old Nelson Velazquez, struggled at South Bend (.188/.242/.196) but was much better after a demotion to Eugene (.250/.322/.458, 11 HR, 12 SB, 81/23 K/BB). The Puerto Rico product is obviously very raw, but like Davis, he shows a tantalizing power-speed combination that should become more impactful once he improves his plate discipline. Like Davis and to an extent Roederer, he's high ceiling, low floor.
Affiliates: AAA Iowa Cubs, AA Tennessee Smokies, High A Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Class A South Bend Cubs, Short Season Eugene Emeralds, complex level AZL and DSL Cubs
The Headliner: C Miguel Amaya
Miguel Amaya's offensive breakout was the best thing to happen to the Cubs' system in 2018. A highly regarded catching prospect when signed out of Panama, Amaya has always been praised for his defense behind the plate but it took a little while for his bat to get going. That changed in 2018, when he slashed .256/.349/.403 with 12 home runs and a nice 91/50 strikeout to walk ratio in 116 games at Class A South Bend. Those numbers look rather pedestrian on the surface, but context makes them much better. Amaya played the entire season at age 19 and does not turn 20 until just before the 2019 season, making him one of the younger players in the Midwest League, his plate discipline improved greatly despite the jump from short season to full season ball, and he's a catcher; it's tough to find good defensive catchers who can also swing it. I like the way he gets extension on the ball after contact, and while he has some work to do on his overall hit tool, I think he can grow into a fine MLB catcher. There are plenty of farm systems with no projected starting-quality catchers anywhere, so having Amaya is definitely big. He's a long way off, but he's as good a bet as any teenage catcher to be a starter in the major leagues.
The Army of Back-End Workhorses: Alex Lange, Keegan Thompson, Cory Abbott, Thomas Hatch, Erich Uelmen, and Michael Rucker
These six pitchers all have a lot in common, which is why I grouped them together. Aside from being workhorses, all six pitched at Division I college programs and were drafted in either 2016 or 2017, and all but Rucker were taken in the top four rounds. Former LSU star Alex Lange is my personal favorite of the bunch, and he also has the best chance to be more than an innings eater. Lange was a first rounder in 2017 (30th overall) and spent all of 2018 at High A Myrtle Beach, going 6-8 with a 3.74 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 101/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings. While he doesn't burn up the radar guns, he throws hard enough in the low 90's and his curveball is a deadly weapon. The 20.4% strikeout rate was a little low, but the 7.7% walk rate was also low, especially when compared to his 9.2% rate from his final year at LSU. This I think has come with more consistency in his delivery, and I like his chances for improving further and becoming a mid-rotation starter. Behind Amaya, he might be the best prospect in the system. Former Auburn star Keegan Thompson was a third round pick (105th overall) in the same 2017 draft as Lange, but because he is an academic year older than Lange (seven months in reality), he made it up to AA in 2018. Between Myrtle Beach and AA Tennessee, he was 9-6 with a 3.61 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 115/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings, pitching a little better in High A than AA as expected. Like Lange, he has a great curve, but he also throws a good changeup and commands his pitches better than Lange, which makes up for the lower velocity. He just needs to improve his consistency, though I think his ceiling is lower than Lange's with the same floor. Former Loyola Marymount star Cory Abbott was a second round pick (67th overall) in the same 2017 draft as Lange and Thompson, though he split 2018 between Class A South Bend and Myrtle Beach. Partially due to starting lower in the minors, his numbers were the best of the three (8-6, 2.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 131/39 K/BB in 115 IP). He gets by more on mixing his pitches because none stand out as plus, giving A-ball hitters fits in the process, though his margin for error will shrink as he moves up. Consider Abbott a back-end option. Former Oklahoma State star Thomas Hatch was a third round pick (104th overall) in 2016. He had a pretty good year at Tennessee this year (8-6, 3.82 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 117/61 K/BB in 143.2 IP), showing the stuff and stamina to succeed but struggling a bit with his command. He looks like a #5 starter right now, but the walks are just a little high for his profile. Former Cal Poly star Erich Uelmen is the youngest of the six, having been drafted in the fourth round (135th overall) in 2017. He split 2018 between Myrtle Beach and Tennessee (8-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 82/30 K/BB in 89.1 total IP), generating tons of ground balls but also showing problems with durability. He has the highest reliever risk of the group. Lastly, former BYU star Michael Rucker, the oldest of the six, was an eleventh round pick in 2016 who rose to prominence with a big 2017 in A ball and some continued success at Tennessee in 2018 (9-6, 3.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 118/38 K/BB in 132.2 IP). He gets by more on command than stuff, and though he's on the older side (pitched almost the whole season at age 24), he hopes to be a #5 starter in the near future.
Waiting to Put It Together: RHP Adbert Alzolay, SS Aramis Ademan, RHP Duane Underwood, LHP Brendon Little, and RHP Bailey Clark
These five players have had varying levels of success but also have seen inconsistency, and we're waiting to see which ones can put it together and become stars or at least valuable players. We'll start with 23 year old pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay, one of the top prospects in the system. Signed from Venezuela before the 2013 season, he was not a notable prospect at all until his breakout in 2015 with Short Season Eugene, then he really broke out with a huge 2017 between Myrtle Beach and Tennessee (7-4, 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 108/34 K/BB in 114.1 total IP). I actually got to see his final start of the season that year in person, but he couldn't make it out of the second inning. He was off to a decent start at AAA Iowa in 2018 considering the difficult pitchers' environment in the PCL (2-4, 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 27/13 K/BB in 39.2 IP), but a lat injury ended his season just eight starts in. He's somewhat difficult to project on the mound, showing a hard low to mid 90's fastball, though its movement is just average, and a very good curveball. Despite his inconsistency on the mound his control is pretty good, and it seems that he runs into his biggest problems not when he starts walking everybody, but when his stuff flattens out and he becomes hittable. In that sense, even though he already has eight AAA starts under his belt, he still has a high ceiling and a low floor, with possible outcomes being anything from a #2 starter to a reliever. Meanwhile, another prospect with initials AA has been up and down for different reasons. 20 year old shortstop Aramis Ademan has always been a big prospect, playing above his age group every year. He performed well enough against advanced competition as an 18 year old in 2017 (.267/.324/.427), but 2018 has been a different story as a 19 year old in the High A Carolina League with Myrtle Beach: 3 HR, .207/.291/.273, 95/38 K/BB in 114 games. The teenager seemed to be having the bat knocked out of his hands by pitchers years older than himself, popping out and grounding out more than he has in the past. Offensively, the one saving grace for his season was a moderately high walk rate of 8.4%, which is nothing crazy but is enough to show he at least could recognize pitches and maintain an approach. Of course, given his age and good defense at a premium position, the poor 2018 does not erase his stock completely and another year in High A could pay dividends. There's a lot of pre-pitch movement in his swing and he seems to sometimes just be flinging the bat at the ball, so increasing strength and getting more consistent with his mechanics, when combined with his moderately good eye and approach, could facilitate a breakout. He's a long way off but he could be a starting shortstop down the road, or a solid bench option. Duane Underwood was taken in the second round (67th overall) of the 2012 draft, and the man has somehow figured out how to stay on prospect lists for seven years. Talk about prospect fatigue. The 24 year old has managed this by looking great on the right days and terrible on the wrong days, and in 2018 it came together for a 4-10 record, a 4.53 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 105/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings at AAA Iowa. He has been so inconsistent and the Cubs have been trying to develop him as a starter for so long that he ended up making five relief appearances at the end of the year, allowing six runs in seven innings (but striking out eight to just two walks). Overall, more than six years after he was drafted, it's hard to say what his impact will be; I'm guessing long reliever. Brendon Little was taken in the first round (27th overall) out of a Florida JuCo in 2017, which I saw as an overdraft. As it turns out, he struggled at Class A South Bend this year, going 5-11 with a 5.15 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 90/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings. The level wasn't supposed to be particularly difficult for him, a hard throwing JuCo lefty, but hitters were able to handle the high velocity and great curveball due to his lack of a changeup, good command, and movement on his fastball. Development of the changeup and of his command could still make him a mid-rotation starter, but I think his future lies in the bullpen. Lastly, Bailey Clark was a fifth round pick out of Duke in 2016, and statistically he has been all over the place. A 4.59 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 2017 gave way to a 1.89 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, as well as a 63/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings, in 2018. It's hard to know what to make of Clark going forward, but I think he has a pretty decent shot at being a useful reliever.
The Distant Future: LHP Brailyn Marquez, SS Nico Hoerner, OF Brennen Davis, OF Cole Roederer, OF Jimmy Herron, and OF Nelson Velazquez
These six players are so far off from the majors that anything can happen between now and then, though likely one or two could develop into very useful players. 19 year old lefty Brailyn Marquez had a breakout year in 2018, posting a 3.13 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 59/16 strikeout to walk ratio across 12 starts, mostly in Short Season ball at Eugene but also in Class A South Bend. His stuff all ticked up this year, and despite being a teenage lefty just learning to control his new velocity, he was surprisingly consistent in that he only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his twelve starts. A projectable 6'4", he figures to add even more velocity, and the command is pretty good for a pitcher in his position. He's a long way off and twelve starts in the low minors don't guarantee anything, but he's a breakout candidate for 2019 and could be the system's top prospect following the season should he do so. Perhaps the closest to the majors out of these six is this year's first round pick (24th overall), 21 year old infielder Nico Hoerner. Personally, I wasn't a big fan of the pick, though through a small sample his pro debut was a success: 2 HR, .327/.450/.571 slash line, 6 SB, 4/9 K/BB in 14 games. The Stanford product is considered a high floor, low ceiling player who could be the Cubs' starting second baseman down the road, showing no standout tools but doing a little bit of everything. If he doesn't start, I think he'll make a fine super-utility player along the lines of Houston's Marwin Gonzalez. With their 62nd and 77th overall picks, respectively, the Cubs took a couple of toolsy high school outfielders in Brennen Davis and Cole Roederer. While Davis is bigger and has more power potential, Roederer is faster and is a bit more advanced. I like Davis' upside better as a potential multi-category contributor, while Roederer might have a smoother road to the majors. Of course, with a couple of raw outfielders taken out of high school, the risk is very high and they have a lot to prove to be considered top prospects. The third round pick (98th overall), outfielder Jimmy Herron, comes from Duke and managed to slash .245/.333/.345 with three home runs in 33 games at South Bend this year, respectable for someone straight out of college ball. He's unlikely to ever start for the Cubs, but his strong plate discipline and hittability gives him a good shot at being a fourth outfielder in the fairly near future as a quick-to-the-big-leagues type. Lastly, another outfielder, 19 year old Nelson Velazquez, struggled at South Bend (.188/.242/.196) but was much better after a demotion to Eugene (.250/.322/.458, 11 HR, 12 SB, 81/23 K/BB). The Puerto Rico product is obviously very raw, but like Davis, he shows a tantalizing power-speed combination that should become more impactful once he improves his plate discipline. Like Davis and to an extent Roederer, he's high ceiling, low floor.
Saturday, July 7, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Chicago Cubs
First 5 rounds: Nico Hoerner (1-24), Brennen Davis (2-62), Cole Roederer (2-77), Paul Richan (2-78), Jimmy Herron (3-98), Ethan Roberts (4-128), Andy Weber (5-158)
Also notable: D.J. Artis (7-218), Riley Thompson (11-338)
The Cubs took an unconventional approach to this draft, because even though they had five picks of the first 100 picks, they really only grabbed one guy who was widely considered a top 100 prospect, and I even think that pick (Nico Hoerner) was a reach. They grabbed two high schoolers early on with tremendous ceilings and a lot of work to do to get there, as well as quite a few college players with high floors. It's hard to call this a bad draft from the outset, because they must really believe in Brennen Davis' and Cole Roederer's ceilings, in which case they could prove to be steals. However, whenever you buck consensus and take under the radar guys, there's a lot of pressure to get it right. We'll see how this draft goes, but I think it actually hinges more on Davis and Roederer than on Hoerner.
1-24: SS Nico Hoerner (my rank: 64)
Most analysts had Hoerner in the 35-50 range, and I in particular am not a big Hoerner fan, so it's safe to say I don't like this pick, especially for a farm system lacking impact talent. Hoerner is an infielder out of Stanford, coming off a junior season where he slashed .349/.394/.502 with two home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 22/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. His profile revolves around his hit tool, which is elite, but I'm afraid there's not enough else in the profile to justify a first round pick. Though he can put the bat to the ball with anybody in the class save for Nick Madrigal, striking out in just 8.7% of his plate appearances this year, he doesn't walk much (7.5%) and that eats into his on-base percentage. He has a stocky build at about 6' (height listed at 5'11" or 6'1" depending on the source but he looks short) and has hit just three home runs in 167 career games at Stanford, though some people think he can add more power. They'll point to his compact build, .300/.356/.456 line (6 HR) in the Cape Cod League this past spring, and room for improvement in his swing. Personally, I can see a way to add loft to his swing and tap into that power, but I think it's far from a given and it wouldn't be a small change. Having those great bat to ball skills would help him with such a change, but it's definitely not a certainty. He's a good defender and could stick at short, though second base is a likelihood. Overall, he just seems like he has the upside of an average middle infielder, and I don't like that for the first round. He signed for just over $2.7 million, right at slot. He's off to a hot start in six games between the rookie level Arizona League and the short season level Northwest League, slashing .350/.500/.600 with a pair of home runs, four stolen bases, and a 2/4 strikeout to walk ratio.
2-62: OF Brennen Davis (unranked)
Davis was viewed more as a third to fifth round pick, but the Cubs obviously liked his ceiling enough to take him here in the second round. He's one of those guys where the sky is the limit but an outright flop is very possible. He's a 6'4" high school outfielder from the Phoenix suburbs with tons of tools but a long way to go in terms of refinement. He's very lean and has a lot of room to add good weight, and he's extremely fast with a good arm, but that's about it in terms of the right now. His swing is quick and could produce plenty of power from the right side down the road, but he's very raw, will need some mechanical changes, and doesn't have the contact ability yet to help with those changes. He can stick in center field, which buys the bat time, but he has a long way to go to reach his ceiling. He signed for $1.1 million, which was $39,100 above slot. He has played two games in the Arizona League and has two singles in five at bats, striking out once, walking once, and stealing a base.
2-77: OF Cole Roederer (unranked)
Roederer, a high schooler from Newhall, California, is way off the beaten path, unranked on MLB.com's top 200 or on Fangraphs' top 130 and coming in at #161 on the Baseball America 500. It's hard to find much information on him, but from video he has a quick swing that will need to be altered significantly, as it's flat and features a short follow through. He's fast, with the chance to stick in center field, and he's s left handed hitter, so the upside is definitely here. Like with Davis, it's a risky pick, though I think Davis' upside is better. He signed for $1.2 million, which is $424,900 above slot. In his first game in the Arizona League, he had one single in four at bats while walking and stealing a base.
2-78: RHP Paul Richan (unranked)
Richan graduated from the same Hart High School in Newhall as Roederer, though he was just drafted as a junior out of the University of San Diego. On the surface, his 2017 season looked better (5-2, 3.05 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 73/21 K/BB) but his peripherals actually suggested he was better in 2018 (4-6, 4.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 101/13 K/BB). The 6'2" right hander has a full arsenal that helped him keep college hitters off balance and get tons of strikeouts, throwing a low 90's fastball, a slider, a curve, and a changeup. The Cubs will try to develop him as a back-end starter, one who relies on command and mixing his pitches more than he does on stuff. He signed for $450,000, which is $312,900 under slot, and he threw two shutout innings on one hit, no walks, and five strikeouts in his Northwest League debut.
3-98: OF Jimmy Herron (unranked)
Herron, an outfielder from Duke, isn't a high ceiling guy so much as he is a high floor guy. He has been a three year performer, batting over .300 with an on-base percentage over .410 and a slugging percentage over .430 in each of his three seasons in Durham. This year, he slashed .304/.419/.460 with five home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 28/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 63 games, showing speed, on-base ability, and plate discipline. He also hit very well in the Cape Cod League (.338/.443/.481, 4 HR, 26/20 K/BB), which certainly bodes well for him at the next level. Herron profiles as the kind of guy who will have less trouble than most adjusting to new levels due to his advanced approach at the plate, and while he is likely a fourth outfielder, he has the potential to be a starting center fielder if he can add power. He signed for $520,000, which is $50,600 below slot, but he'll miss the remainder of the season and likely part of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
7-218: OF D.J. Artis (unranked)
I'm throwing Artis in this section because I got the opportunity to watch him play against Virginia Tech during the season. Like Herron, he's a speedy center fielder, offering the same amount of ceiling four rounds later but a bit less safety. He was great as a sophomore last year at Liberty (.359/.532/.552, 6 HR, 23 SB, 30/62 K/BB), but saw his production drop a bit this year by slashing .292/.458/.457 with four home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 49/52 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games. He is clearly very patient and draws a ton of walks (24.6% last year, 18% this year), giving him leadoff hitter potential if he can successfully adjust to minor league pitching. He supposedly has been getting pitched around just as much if not more this year, though he has become more impatient and chased more pitches (strikeout rate up from 11.9% to 17%). That was the case when I saw him, and he seemed a bit uncomfortable with advanced breaking stuff in that small sample. If he can get his approach back in gear, his exceptional on-base percentages and great speed will help him steal tons of bases. He signed for $250,000, which is $57,500 above slot, and he is 0-2 with a walk and a strikeout in the Arizona League so far.
Others: 4th rounder Ethan Roberts, a 5'11" right handed pitcher, was the first player drafted off a Tennessee Tech team more known for its offense than its pitching, but he still turned in a very good year. As Tennessee Tech's most important relieve, he went 6-1 with a 2.30 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 103/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, often going two, three, or even four innings. He'll likely be a reliever in the Cubs system and could be one of the first 2018 draftees up in the majors. 5th rounder Andy Weber comes from UVA, finishing his junior year with a .344/.415/.536 line, five home runs, and a 32/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games. He's a second baseman with overall average tools at the plate, one who could be a utility man in the majors but who could surprise with some power if he puts more into his free and easy swing. 11th rounder Riley Thompson is a 6'3" righty out of Louisville who had an awful year for the Cardinals, going 1-3 with a 6.82 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and a 35/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 33 innings. He throws very hard, consistently in the mid 90's as a starter and into the upper 90's as a reliever, and his curve looks good at times too, but command and inconsistency in that secondary stuff has done him in. He has the stamina to start but may be pushed to the bullpen if he can't get everything else together, where his fastball/curveball combination will play up.
Also notable: D.J. Artis (7-218), Riley Thompson (11-338)
The Cubs took an unconventional approach to this draft, because even though they had five picks of the first 100 picks, they really only grabbed one guy who was widely considered a top 100 prospect, and I even think that pick (Nico Hoerner) was a reach. They grabbed two high schoolers early on with tremendous ceilings and a lot of work to do to get there, as well as quite a few college players with high floors. It's hard to call this a bad draft from the outset, because they must really believe in Brennen Davis' and Cole Roederer's ceilings, in which case they could prove to be steals. However, whenever you buck consensus and take under the radar guys, there's a lot of pressure to get it right. We'll see how this draft goes, but I think it actually hinges more on Davis and Roederer than on Hoerner.
1-24: SS Nico Hoerner (my rank: 64)
Most analysts had Hoerner in the 35-50 range, and I in particular am not a big Hoerner fan, so it's safe to say I don't like this pick, especially for a farm system lacking impact talent. Hoerner is an infielder out of Stanford, coming off a junior season where he slashed .349/.394/.502 with two home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 22/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. His profile revolves around his hit tool, which is elite, but I'm afraid there's not enough else in the profile to justify a first round pick. Though he can put the bat to the ball with anybody in the class save for Nick Madrigal, striking out in just 8.7% of his plate appearances this year, he doesn't walk much (7.5%) and that eats into his on-base percentage. He has a stocky build at about 6' (height listed at 5'11" or 6'1" depending on the source but he looks short) and has hit just three home runs in 167 career games at Stanford, though some people think he can add more power. They'll point to his compact build, .300/.356/.456 line (6 HR) in the Cape Cod League this past spring, and room for improvement in his swing. Personally, I can see a way to add loft to his swing and tap into that power, but I think it's far from a given and it wouldn't be a small change. Having those great bat to ball skills would help him with such a change, but it's definitely not a certainty. He's a good defender and could stick at short, though second base is a likelihood. Overall, he just seems like he has the upside of an average middle infielder, and I don't like that for the first round. He signed for just over $2.7 million, right at slot. He's off to a hot start in six games between the rookie level Arizona League and the short season level Northwest League, slashing .350/.500/.600 with a pair of home runs, four stolen bases, and a 2/4 strikeout to walk ratio.
2-62: OF Brennen Davis (unranked)
Davis was viewed more as a third to fifth round pick, but the Cubs obviously liked his ceiling enough to take him here in the second round. He's one of those guys where the sky is the limit but an outright flop is very possible. He's a 6'4" high school outfielder from the Phoenix suburbs with tons of tools but a long way to go in terms of refinement. He's very lean and has a lot of room to add good weight, and he's extremely fast with a good arm, but that's about it in terms of the right now. His swing is quick and could produce plenty of power from the right side down the road, but he's very raw, will need some mechanical changes, and doesn't have the contact ability yet to help with those changes. He can stick in center field, which buys the bat time, but he has a long way to go to reach his ceiling. He signed for $1.1 million, which was $39,100 above slot. He has played two games in the Arizona League and has two singles in five at bats, striking out once, walking once, and stealing a base.
2-77: OF Cole Roederer (unranked)
Roederer, a high schooler from Newhall, California, is way off the beaten path, unranked on MLB.com's top 200 or on Fangraphs' top 130 and coming in at #161 on the Baseball America 500. It's hard to find much information on him, but from video he has a quick swing that will need to be altered significantly, as it's flat and features a short follow through. He's fast, with the chance to stick in center field, and he's s left handed hitter, so the upside is definitely here. Like with Davis, it's a risky pick, though I think Davis' upside is better. He signed for $1.2 million, which is $424,900 above slot. In his first game in the Arizona League, he had one single in four at bats while walking and stealing a base.
2-78: RHP Paul Richan (unranked)
Richan graduated from the same Hart High School in Newhall as Roederer, though he was just drafted as a junior out of the University of San Diego. On the surface, his 2017 season looked better (5-2, 3.05 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 73/21 K/BB) but his peripherals actually suggested he was better in 2018 (4-6, 4.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 101/13 K/BB). The 6'2" right hander has a full arsenal that helped him keep college hitters off balance and get tons of strikeouts, throwing a low 90's fastball, a slider, a curve, and a changeup. The Cubs will try to develop him as a back-end starter, one who relies on command and mixing his pitches more than he does on stuff. He signed for $450,000, which is $312,900 under slot, and he threw two shutout innings on one hit, no walks, and five strikeouts in his Northwest League debut.
3-98: OF Jimmy Herron (unranked)
Herron, an outfielder from Duke, isn't a high ceiling guy so much as he is a high floor guy. He has been a three year performer, batting over .300 with an on-base percentage over .410 and a slugging percentage over .430 in each of his three seasons in Durham. This year, he slashed .304/.419/.460 with five home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 28/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 63 games, showing speed, on-base ability, and plate discipline. He also hit very well in the Cape Cod League (.338/.443/.481, 4 HR, 26/20 K/BB), which certainly bodes well for him at the next level. Herron profiles as the kind of guy who will have less trouble than most adjusting to new levels due to his advanced approach at the plate, and while he is likely a fourth outfielder, he has the potential to be a starting center fielder if he can add power. He signed for $520,000, which is $50,600 below slot, but he'll miss the remainder of the season and likely part of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
7-218: OF D.J. Artis (unranked)
I'm throwing Artis in this section because I got the opportunity to watch him play against Virginia Tech during the season. Like Herron, he's a speedy center fielder, offering the same amount of ceiling four rounds later but a bit less safety. He was great as a sophomore last year at Liberty (.359/.532/.552, 6 HR, 23 SB, 30/62 K/BB), but saw his production drop a bit this year by slashing .292/.458/.457 with four home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 49/52 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games. He is clearly very patient and draws a ton of walks (24.6% last year, 18% this year), giving him leadoff hitter potential if he can successfully adjust to minor league pitching. He supposedly has been getting pitched around just as much if not more this year, though he has become more impatient and chased more pitches (strikeout rate up from 11.9% to 17%). That was the case when I saw him, and he seemed a bit uncomfortable with advanced breaking stuff in that small sample. If he can get his approach back in gear, his exceptional on-base percentages and great speed will help him steal tons of bases. He signed for $250,000, which is $57,500 above slot, and he is 0-2 with a walk and a strikeout in the Arizona League so far.
Others: 4th rounder Ethan Roberts, a 5'11" right handed pitcher, was the first player drafted off a Tennessee Tech team more known for its offense than its pitching, but he still turned in a very good year. As Tennessee Tech's most important relieve, he went 6-1 with a 2.30 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 103/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, often going two, three, or even four innings. He'll likely be a reliever in the Cubs system and could be one of the first 2018 draftees up in the majors. 5th rounder Andy Weber comes from UVA, finishing his junior year with a .344/.415/.536 line, five home runs, and a 32/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games. He's a second baseman with overall average tools at the plate, one who could be a utility man in the majors but who could surprise with some power if he puts more into his free and easy swing. 11th rounder Riley Thompson is a 6'3" righty out of Louisville who had an awful year for the Cardinals, going 1-3 with a 6.82 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and a 35/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 33 innings. He throws very hard, consistently in the mid 90's as a starter and into the upper 90's as a reliever, and his curve looks good at times too, but command and inconsistency in that secondary stuff has done him in. He has the stamina to start but may be pushed to the bullpen if he can't get everything else together, where his fastball/curveball combination will play up.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 Second Basemen
Like first basemen, second basemen often come from other positions, typically shortstop. Nick Madrigal easily tops this list, and other shortstops like Xavier Edwards, Jeremiah Jackson, and Osiris Johnson could end up here as well. There is less pressure on the bat here, and many of these guys are scrappy, hard-nosed contact hitters that are fun to watch and easy to root for.
1. Nick Madrigal (Oregon State)
Madrigal is a potential top five pick who is impossible not to like. Standing at just 5'7" and with a skinny build, he merits comparisons to Jose Altuve, but Altuve is more thickly built. Still, he slashed .380/.449/.532 in 60 games as a sophomore last year then took off with a .406/.473/.594 line in 31 games this year despite missing time with a broken wrist. He has exceptional feel for the barrel, perhaps the best in the entire class, having struck out all of five times this entire season and routinely muscling balls into the gaps and even over the fence despite his small frame. In addition to his uncanny ability to find the sweet spot, he can generate his moderate power with a quick swing, and this year, he has lengthened his stride and incorporates the added momentum into his swing very well. His ceiling is limited with his size, but his floor is extremely high and he could start in the majors for a long time.
2. Nico Hoerner (Stanford)
Hoerner is another Pac-12 performer, doing so down the coast at Stanford. The stocky, 5'11" infielder has improved each season, and he has capped it off this year by slashing .351/.396/.498 with nearly as many walks (19) as strikeouts (21). Like Madrigal, he also has a good feel for the barrel, though he won't hit for much power. He is a pretty safe bet to hit at the next level, considering his low strikeout rate and solid Cape Cod League performance this past summer (6 HR, .300/.356/.456), and he should be a good defender at second base, though he plays shortstop right now for the Cardinal. However, the negatives come from that lack of power as well as a low walk rate, one of which will have to improve if he wants to be a productive regular. It's an unexciting profile, but he could still come off the board not long after the close of the first round. Personally though, I think there are better options.
3. Matt McLain (Beckman HS, CA)
McLain's position isn't a done deal yet, as he currently plays shortstop in high school, is listed as a second baseman on Fangraphs, and has tools that really fit at third base, but I'm going to stick him on this list because it is shallow and I want him to get the attention he deserves. He's a skinny guy, but he has whip to his swing that should generate power at the next level, and he has enough feel for the barrel to get to it often. Ultra-athletic, he runs very well and plays the game hard, giving him a good chance to maximize his abilities. He has a wide range of outcomes but is the type of player that could get drafted earlier than you'd expect and sign an under-slot deal if teams aren't scared off by his commitment to UCLA.
4. Tyler Frank (Florida Atlantic)
Frank is another college performer, one who has slashed .310/.450/.573 with 13 home runs and a 34/51 strikeout to walk ratio for the Owls this year. He's a very competent hitter who can do a little bit of everything, showing some power, a lot of patience, and the ability to get on base. His swing isn't the smoothest but it works for him, and he didn't look overmatched in the Cape Cod League. On defense, he can play all over the diamond, but second base is his most likely home if he doesn't become a utility man. He is the kind of player that unexpectedly hits, hits, and hits as you promote him through the minors, a la Austin Hays last year or Harrison Bader before him.
5. Raynel Delgado (Calvary Christian HS, FL)
Delgado isn't in the same class as those above him on this list, but he has a high ceiling at the plate with his big swing and advanced feel. He'll need to clean that swing up a bit, as his head moves to much and could cause him to swing and miss, but enough pro coaching could make him an above average regular. The defense isn't as good, but just the ability to stick in the infield helps his stock. He is committed to Florida International University.
Others: Grant Little (Texas Tech)
1. Nick Madrigal (Oregon State)
Madrigal is a potential top five pick who is impossible not to like. Standing at just 5'7" and with a skinny build, he merits comparisons to Jose Altuve, but Altuve is more thickly built. Still, he slashed .380/.449/.532 in 60 games as a sophomore last year then took off with a .406/.473/.594 line in 31 games this year despite missing time with a broken wrist. He has exceptional feel for the barrel, perhaps the best in the entire class, having struck out all of five times this entire season and routinely muscling balls into the gaps and even over the fence despite his small frame. In addition to his uncanny ability to find the sweet spot, he can generate his moderate power with a quick swing, and this year, he has lengthened his stride and incorporates the added momentum into his swing very well. His ceiling is limited with his size, but his floor is extremely high and he could start in the majors for a long time.
2. Nico Hoerner (Stanford)
Hoerner is another Pac-12 performer, doing so down the coast at Stanford. The stocky, 5'11" infielder has improved each season, and he has capped it off this year by slashing .351/.396/.498 with nearly as many walks (19) as strikeouts (21). Like Madrigal, he also has a good feel for the barrel, though he won't hit for much power. He is a pretty safe bet to hit at the next level, considering his low strikeout rate and solid Cape Cod League performance this past summer (6 HR, .300/.356/.456), and he should be a good defender at second base, though he plays shortstop right now for the Cardinal. However, the negatives come from that lack of power as well as a low walk rate, one of which will have to improve if he wants to be a productive regular. It's an unexciting profile, but he could still come off the board not long after the close of the first round. Personally though, I think there are better options.
3. Matt McLain (Beckman HS, CA)
McLain's position isn't a done deal yet, as he currently plays shortstop in high school, is listed as a second baseman on Fangraphs, and has tools that really fit at third base, but I'm going to stick him on this list because it is shallow and I want him to get the attention he deserves. He's a skinny guy, but he has whip to his swing that should generate power at the next level, and he has enough feel for the barrel to get to it often. Ultra-athletic, he runs very well and plays the game hard, giving him a good chance to maximize his abilities. He has a wide range of outcomes but is the type of player that could get drafted earlier than you'd expect and sign an under-slot deal if teams aren't scared off by his commitment to UCLA.
4. Tyler Frank (Florida Atlantic)
Frank is another college performer, one who has slashed .310/.450/.573 with 13 home runs and a 34/51 strikeout to walk ratio for the Owls this year. He's a very competent hitter who can do a little bit of everything, showing some power, a lot of patience, and the ability to get on base. His swing isn't the smoothest but it works for him, and he didn't look overmatched in the Cape Cod League. On defense, he can play all over the diamond, but second base is his most likely home if he doesn't become a utility man. He is the kind of player that unexpectedly hits, hits, and hits as you promote him through the minors, a la Austin Hays last year or Harrison Bader before him.
5. Raynel Delgado (Calvary Christian HS, FL)
Delgado isn't in the same class as those above him on this list, but he has a high ceiling at the plate with his big swing and advanced feel. He'll need to clean that swing up a bit, as his head moves to much and could cause him to swing and miss, but enough pro coaching could make him an above average regular. The defense isn't as good, but just the ability to stick in the infield helps his stock. He is committed to Florida International University.
Others: Grant Little (Texas Tech)
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