1-5: SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt
2-42: RHP CJ Van Eyk, Florida State
3-77: RHP Trent Palmer, Jacksonville
4-106: RHP Nick Frasso, Loyola Marymount
5-136: OF Zach Britton, Louisville
I love this Blue Jays draft class, and I think they did it exactly right. There was no way they expected Austin Martin to still be available halfway through the top ten picks, but because the Orioles and Marlins went in an unexpected direction, that meant Martin was there for the taking. Sure, he required the second highest bonus in the draft and surely threw the Jays' draft plans out the window, but they sure aren't complaining. They smartly didn't shy away from giving Martin the big bucks, then even went slightly over slot on second rounder CJ Van Eyk and Trent Palmer as well. That's aggressive, and I like it. In the end, they over spent their bonus pool by 5%, the maximum you can spend without losing a draft pick, and it netted them a great class. I think they were very smart to do so. Yesterday, I wrote about the Mariners being stingy with their class, and they should have taken a note from what the Jays did. I guess that philosophy is why the Blue Jays' system is so much better than the Mariners', but hey, Seattle saved a few bucks I guess.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-5: SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt (my rank: 2)
Debate raged over who the Tigers should take first overall, Austin Martin or Spencer Torkelson, but while Torkelson's prodigious bat earned him the spot, it's pretty clear that Martin is the best all-around player in the draft class. The Jacksonville native is a career .368/.474/.532 hitter with 14 home runs, 43 stolen bases, and an 82/85 strikeout to walk ratio over 140 games at Vanderbilt, facing some of the toughest pitching in college baseball. Those numbers were as high as .377/.507/.660 in 2020, as Martin continued his ruthless assault on college pitching. He has elite barrel to ball skills that enable him to drive the ball with authority around the park at will, racking up tons of extra base hits (39 doubles and four triples in addition to his 14 home runs). A very patient hitter, he also draws plenty of walks which helped him post on-base percentages of .452, .486, and .507 from his freshman to junior seasons, and his elite strike zone management enabled him to strike out just twice in 16 games this year. The power is about average right now, but I wouldn't rule out above average power in the future, because he reminds me a lot of Alex Bregman at the same stage of his career. Guys who have that elite combination of zone control and barrel control inevitably run into more home runs than you'd expect, and I could see Martin as a 20-25 home run guy in addition to one who posts .400+ on-base percentages. With good speed to boot, he's the whole package offensively. Defensively, there were already questions as to whether he could stick at shortstop, but in a Blue Jays system that's absolutely loaded with infield talent, that seems less likely. He hadn't been seen much at shortstop in deference to now-Pirates prospect Ethan Paul, and this year he's bounced around the field for Vanderbilt as well. The coaching staff there was never sold on his feel for the infield, even if he is a natural athlete with speed and strength, so he could end up at third base with a little refinement for the Blue Jays or center field if they want to go the path of least resistance. No matter where he ends up defensively, he should be a net-positive so long as it isn't shortstop, and the bat will play anywhere regardless. I'm really excited to see what he does in pro ball. Martin's $7 million signing bonus was about $820,000 above slot, but the Jays did it and they didn't shy away from their later picks. Pre-draft profile here.
2-42: RHP CJ Van Eyk, Florida State (my rank: 42)
CJ Van Eyk was a well-known draft prospect coming out of high school in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, but he wound up at Florida State and steadily built his stock up with a very impressive career in Tallahassee: 18-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 225/83 K/BB in 176.2 innings. Van Eyk is the kind of pitcher who could have easily snuck into the back of the first round in most drafts, but this draft was so deep in college pitching that he fell to the Blue Jays in the second round. That's not to say that he should have gone higher, since the pitchers ahead of him really were legitimate arms, but it does mean the Jays can be really excited about this kind of name being available as a result. He leads off with a solid fastball in the low 90's that can reach up to 95, but his best pitch is a plus 12-6 curveball that he has tremendous feel for. Van Eyk also throws a slider and a changeup, though the fastball and curveball are his main pitches. His command is relatively inconsistent, but although it grades as clearly below average, it's not a huge red flag. He's generally at least around the zone and shows good feel for moving his curveball around the plate, so while pro hitters will be able to lay off his close misses for the most part, a few tweaks should get him up to average command. The 6'1" righty can make that work, because he gets a little bit of deception on his pitches as well, coming across his body to put tough angle on the ball. So long as he makes the necessary strides with his command, we're probably looking at a very solid #3 starter type, and even if his command remains below average, there's a good chance he can still crack it as a back-end starter. He signed for $1.8 million, which was about $30,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.
3-77: RHP Trent Palmer, Jacksonville (my rank: 143)
This marks a third straight pick with ties to the state of Florida. Austin Martin grew up in Jacksonville but left for school, CJ Van Eyk grew up in Tampa and stayed in state, and finally, Trent Palmer grew up in the Minneapolis area but headed way down south to Jacksonville for college. Personally, I'm not a huge fan of this pick, especially considering it was an over slot signing, but I see why the Blue Jays like him. Palmer is a 6'1" righty who had been solid, if unspectacular, over his first two seasons at Jacksonville, but he was very good on the Cape (1.21 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 22.1 IP) then broke out in 2020 with a 1.30 ERA, a 0.61 WHIP, and a 41/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 96, and he adds a solid slider, curve, and changeup to go with it. Everything comes from an extremely loose arm that has enabled him to transition to starting very well, and his command has steadily improved throughout his college career, now playing close to average. He's a stockier guy who doesn't figure to add a ton of velocity, but he has enough to succeed right now and will just have to focus on sharpening his secondary pitches a little. They're pretty good right now, given his average-ish command, you'd probably want them to be a little crisper and miss more bats. If he can continue the trend he's on with his command and get to solid average or slightly above, though, he could fit in as a #4 starter. Otherwise, he could fit well in a bullpen role, where his stuff would likely tick up. Palmer signed for $847,500, which was about $41,900 above slot value.
4-106: RHP Nick Frasso, Loyola Marymount (my rank: 96)
There are a lot of question marks with Frasso, but the upside here is really exciting. He's a lanky 6'5" righty that looks uncoordinated out there on the field, but he brings lots of athleticism regardless. A standout high school basketball player in the Los Angeles suburbs, Frasso has been a steady performer at Loyola Marymount with a career 2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 158/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings. He brings the heat with a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, but the pitch plays way up because his long arms enable him to release the baseball practically right in front of the hitter's face. There is also some funk to his delivery and he puts high spin rates on the ball, meaning that its above average velocity plays more as a true plus pitch. For now, that's what the Blue Jays are buying, hoping they can develop the rest of his arsenal. His slider is his best secondary pitch, looking average overall but playing well off his fastball when he tunnels them together, and his changeup is definitely his third pitch. Despite his gangly stature and funky, jerky delivery, he's very coordinated and fills up the strike zone consistently. Now, he only threw 8.2 innings in 2020 because he missed time with forearm problems, and we're just going to have to see how that plays out. If he comes back healthy, there is some real upside. With the easy plus fastball and above average command, all he really needs to do is sharpen his secondary pitches a little bit to become a legitimate impact starter, should he prove durable enough to handle that role. If durability remains a concern or if the changeup never really comes along, he would fit great in the bullpen, so aside from injuries, I see a relatively high floor as well as some ceiling on top of it. I'm very interested to see where he goes in pro ball and I really hope he gets/stays healthy. Frasso signed for $459,000, which was $90,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
5-136: OF Zach Britton, Louisville (unranked)
This was the Blue Jays' main money saver to afford Austin Martin. Britton, of no relation to Yankees reliever Zack Britton, grew up in southeastern Indiana about 40 miles outside of Cincinnati, and he has steadily improved during his career at Louisville. He was off to a hot start in 2020, hitting .322/.446/.542 with a 12/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games, and that came on the heels of a solid run through the Cape Cod League. An average athlete at 6'1", he deploys his strength well in his whippy swing and shows solid average power while making very consistent contact. Usually, that power plays more into line drives than home runs in games, though he did hit five home runs on the Cape over the summer. The bat looks pretty interesting and should carry him to the big leagues, though he's an average defender in left field so the bat will be the sole thing pushing him up. If he can unlock a little bit more power, I could see him working his way into a starting role, though he's more likely to end up as a fourth outfielder in the long run. His $97,500 signing bonus was $312,600 below slot value.
Undrafted: IF/OF Zac Cook, Texas-Arlington (unranked)
Cook has been somewhat of a jack of all trades for the Mavericks over four years at UT Arlington, slashing .294/.395/.396 with seven home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 111/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 165 games. The Dallas-Fort Worth-area native was at his best in 2020, when he hit .321/.500/.623 with four home runs and a 13/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 16 games. At 6'1", he has been tapping into more of his raw power while continuing to make plenty of contact, showing a bat that should play as average all around in pro ball. He's played pretty much everywhere in the field at UTA, and will likely continue to be utilized in a super utility role in pro ball. Cook is also a great student, one that got into Dartmouth and Cornell but wanted to play baseball at UTA and is currently halfway through an MBA.
Undrafted: SS Harrison Ray, Vanderbilt (unranked)
Ray has been a mainstay in the Vanderbilt lineup for four years, though he's been more solid than flashy with a .259/.343/.378 slash line, five home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 137/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 158 games. Though he only stands 5'11", he packs some punch as a hitter that usually plays as gap to gap power, and he's a good runner that can make the most of that. He's a pretty aggressive hitter that picks up his fair share of strikeouts, which has been the case throughout his career and might have limited his production a little bit. He's probably more of a second baseman than a shortstop and fits best as a utility infielder who can do a little bit of everything despite not having a standout ability.
Showing posts with label Zach Britton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zach Britton. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Saturday, November 3, 2018
Top Free Agents for 2018-2019: Pitchers
Starting Pitchers
1. Patrick Corbin (2019 Age: 29-30)
2018 Stats: 11-7, 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 246/48 K/BB, 200 IP in 33 starts
There are no true aces available on the market this year, though 29 year old Patrick Corbin is arguably the closest. He has been improving steadily over the past three seasons, dropping his ERA from 5.15 in 2016 to 4.03 in 2017 and 3.15 in 2018 while increasing his strikeout rate from 18.7% to 21.6% to 30.8%. His big success in 2018 even came while losing velocity on his fastballs, which have dropped about 1.5 MPH over the past year. Still, you can't argue with the results this year, and the high strikeout rate paired with the low walk rate shows that very little luck was involved in his big season. As one of the younger arms available (he turns 30 in July), he has the ability to continue pitching at this #2 to #3 starter level for quite a few years, making him a candidate for a long term deal. For his career, the Syracuse native is 56-54 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an 897/271 strikeout to walk ratio over 172 games (154 starts) since 2012.
2. Dallas Keuchel (2019 Age: 31)
2018 Stats: 12-11, 3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 153/58 K/BB, 204.2 IP in 34 starts
Keuchel is a similar option to Corbin in terms of projection, though while Corbin is a strikeout pitcher, Keuchel gets his outs with ground balls. It's a more sustainable model for success later into into his career, but it's also more volatile due to the nature of batted balls (a strikeout is a strikeout regardless of luck, but bad luck with ground balls leads to more hits). He has to be weary that he was getting fewer swings and misses on all of his pitches, so continuing to keep the ball on the ground will be key for him. I think this season is indicative of how he will pitch going forward, as a solid #2 or #3 starter. For his career, the former Arkansas Razorback is 76-63 with a 3.66 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 945/343 strikeout to walk ratio over 192 games (183 starts) since 2012.
3. Charlie Morton (2019 Age: 35)
2018 Stats: 15-3, 3.13 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 201/64 K/BB, 167 IP in 30 starts
Charlie Morton's career looked like it was on the downswing in 2015 and, if you weren't looking closely, 2016. After posting a 4.81 ERA in 2015, he literally just decided to throw harder over the offseason. He was injured for much of 2016 but kept with the new deal, and he has been lights out ever since. Between 2017 and 2018, he went 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, striking out 364 and walking 114 in 313.2 innings. All of this by just deciding to throw harder. He literally added about 2.5 MPH to his sinker and nearly 4 MPH to his fastball, and the result has been taking a back-end starter and making him into a solid #3 or even #2 starter. Turning 35 this offseason, he won't get a long term deal, but he'll be a very useful starting pitcher for any team over the next couple of seasons. For his career, the Connecticut native is 75-81 with a 4.23 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 994/451 strikeout to walk ratio over 217 games (216 starts) since 2008.
4. Nathan Eovaldi (2019 Age: 29)
2018 Stats: 6-7, 3.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 101/20 K/BB, 111 IP in 22 games (21 starts)
It's hard to peg Eovaldi's value exactly because he has a lot of factors in his favor and a lot against him, and it all averages out to an average pitcher. He missed the 2017 season with Tommy John surgery and hasn't qualified for the ERA title (162+ IP) since 2014. However, he's been pretty consistent when on the mound, and he posted his second best ERA (3.81), best WHIP (1.13), and best K/BB (101/20) in 2018. Flipping back to the negative side, that 2014 season was his only full season. And on the positive, he turns 29 in February and is one of the youngest free agent starters available. Going forward, the hard throwing right hander has built his value up enough with a strong postseason to be a safe bet to be a valuable #3 or #4 starter, but only if he's healthy. The health isn't a safe bet, which knocks his value, but overall he'll be a good addition to any rotation that has the depth to make up for injuries should they strike. His excellent performance in the playoffs certainly helps. For his career, the Houston area native is 44-53 with a 4.16 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 640/259 strikeout to walk ratio in 156 games (148 starts) since 2011.
5. Hyun-Jin Ryu (2019 Age: 32)
2018 Stats: 7-3, 1.97 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB, 82.1 IP in 15 starts
Ryu, like Eovaldi, is difficult to rank. He is clearly a #2 starter when healthy, but health has been a huge issue with trips to the disabled list stemming from his shoulder, elbow, both hips, foot, and groin all since 2014, which was also the last time he threw 150 innings in a season. This year, Ryu was dynamite when he was actually on the mound, posting a 1.97 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and an 89/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings. While he's not a guy that will sustain those numbers over a full season, he has proven he is perfectly capable of ERA's consistently below 3.50 when on the mound. While age might render him even more susceptible to injury, he's healthy right now, and that's saying a lot. For his career, the South Korean lefty is 40-28 with a 3.20 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 502/140 strikeout to walk ratio over 97 games (96 starts) since 2013.
6. J.A. Happ (2019 Age: 36)
2018 Stats: 17-6, 3.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 193/51 K/BB, 177.2 IP in 31 starts
J.A. Happ may have just turned 36 during the playoffs, but he's still a valuable #3 starter even in his mid 30's. He has made at least 25 starts in each of the past five seasons and has kept his ERA below 3.70 in each of the past four, and deeper analytics show no sign of him slowing down. I think he's the safest bet on this list, at least in the short term, to give you exactly what you expect: 150-180 innings, a sub-4.00 ERA, good command, and relative start-to-start consistency. He only ranks this low because even just a three year deal will see him pitch right up to his 39th birthday. For his career, the former Northwestern Wildcat is 109-82 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 1357/556 strikeout to walk ratio over 284 games (259 starts) since 2007.
7. Yusei Kikuchi (2019 Age: 27-28)
2018 Stats (NPB): 14-4, 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 153/45 K/BB, 163.2 IP in 23 starts
Japan's Seibu Lions will be posting 27 year old lefty Yusei Kikuchi this year, and he could be a mid-rotation starter right off the bat. In 2017, Kikuchi had a huge year in Japan by going 16-6 with a 1.97 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a 217/49 strikeout to walk ratio in 187.2 innings. He took a minor step back in 2018 with a 3.08 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 153/45 strikeout to walk ratio in 163.2 innings, but he was still effective with a 23.4% strikeout rate and just a 6.9% walk rate. Kikuchi throws a mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a curve and changeup, the classic mid-rotation arsenal, and he commands it all well. For his career (in Japan), Kikuchi is 73-46 with a 2.77 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 903/371 strikeout to walk ratio over 158 starts since 2011.
8. Lance Lynn (2019 Age: 32)
2018 Stats: 10-10, 4.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 161/76 K/BB, 156.2 IP in 31 games (29 starts)
After years of being a well above average starter, Lynn's ERA jumped above 4.00 for the first time in his seven year career, landing way up there at 4.77. He was actually throwing a little bit harder and was keeping the ball on the ground better in 2018, but he stopped throwing strikes and his walk rate rose to a career-high 10.9%. Interestingly, even though Lynn's 3.43 ERA in 2017 was far better than his 4.77 ERA in 2018, deeper analytics such as FIP and xwOBA actually think he was a better pitcher in 2018 and the difference was simply luck. I somewhat agree, and while I think he's done with those ERA's around 3.00, I think he settles in around 4.00 for the next few seasons, considering he doesn't turn 32 until May. For his career, the former Ole Miss Rebel is 82-57 with a 3.57 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 1080/445 strikeout to walk ratio over 214 games (190 starts) since 2011.
9. Drew Pomeranz (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 2-6, 6.08 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 66/44 K/BB, 74 IP in 26 games (11 starts)
It's tough to know exactly where to rank Pomeranz, who was an above average starting pitcher from 2016-2017 (38-18, 3.32 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 360/134 K/BB) but who struggled in 2018 (2-6, 6.08 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 66/44 K/BB). He has always been inconsistent, interspersing dominant stretches with times where it looked like he couldn't get anyone out. While he was at his best often in that 2016-2017 stretch, 2018 was a different ballgame as he lost about 1-2 MPH and forgot how to throw strikes. He turns 30 in a few weeks, so he's one of the younger free agents available, and a team that thinks they can unlock his 2016-2017 success will have a young, effective arm on their pitching staff. For his career, Lance Lynn's Ole Miss teammate is 44-48 with a 3.92 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 687/305 strikeout to walk ratio over 196 games (122 starts) since 2011.
10. Gio Gonzalez (2019 Age: 33)
2018 Stats: 10-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 148/80 K/BB, 171 IP in 32 starts
Honestly, it's hard to know what to expect from Gio Gonzalez. After watching him for six and a half years in Washington, I can tell you that you never know what kind of game Gio is going to have until about the fourth or fifth inning. He tends to cruise early on before either finishing off a gem or falling apart, and it has led to wildly erratic seasons: a 4.57 ERA in 2016, 2.96 in 2017, and 4.21 in 2018. You can look at him month to month, as he posted a 2.10 ERA over the first two months this year, a 6.53 ERA over the next three months, and a 2.13 ERA in the final month. He'll probably continue to be maddeningly inconsistent over the next couple of seasons, but with enough good days to fit into most rotations. On his side is the fact that his one consistent attribute has been health, making at least 27 starts in each of the past nine seasons and at least 31 starts in each of the past four. For his career, the Miami native is 127-97 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 1748/759 strikeout to walk ratio over 313 games (307 starts) since 2008.
11. Garrett Richards (2019 Age: 30-31)
2018 Stats: 5-4, 3.66 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 87/34 K/BB, 76.1 IP in 16 starts
Honestly, I have no idea where to rank a guy who might not even pitch in 2019, so I'll slap him at number ten. Richards is an immensely talented arm who should already have a $100 million plus contract by now if he could actually stay healthy, and while he is 6-9 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over his last 28 starts, those 28 starts have been the entirety of his last three seasons. He'll miss most if not all of 2019 as well after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July, so he'll likely get at least a two year deal with most of the money deferred. There is recent precedent for this, with the Rays signing Nathan Eovaldi to a two year deal before the 2017 season with full knowledge he would not pitch until 2018, and it worked out for them. Richards is a better arm, near ace-like when he is healthy, though his high numbers of unearned runs should be a minor red flag. He's so talented that I really hope he can get it together and have a productive, healthy 2020 season. For his career, the former Oklahoma Sooner is 45-38 with a 3.54 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 645/268 strikeout to walk ratio over 170 games (115 starts) since 2011.
12. Jeremy Hellickson (2019 Age: 32)
2018 Stats: 5-3, 3.45 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 65/20 K/BB, 91.1 IP in 19 starts
If it weren't for a down 2017 (5.43 ERA, 96/47 K/BB), Jeremy Hellickson would be a higher profile free agent this winter. He was very good in 2016 (3.71 ERA, 154/45 K/BB), and he was pitching well in 2018 (3.45 ERA, 65/20 K/BB) before a wrist injury shut him down for the most part in August. Turning 32 at the start of the 2019 season, he's not old as far as free agents go and probably has a few productive seasons in him as a #4 starter. While he hasn't been the most consistent, he is very effective during many stretches. For his career, the Des Moines native is 74-72 with a 4.07 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an 899/365 strikeout to walk ratio over 223 games (216 starts) since 2010.
13. Clay Buchholz (2019 Age: 34-35)
2018 Stats: 7-2, 2.01 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 81/22 K/BB, 98.1 IP in 16 starts
Honestly, it's hard to say what happened for Clay Buchholz in 2018. Released by the Royals in May, he ended up going 7-2 with a 2.01 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 16 starts for the Diamondbacks, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 14 of those 16 starts. His velocity was actually down, dropping 2-3 MPH from where he sat in his healthy 2015-2016 seasons. He also outperformed his peripheral stats, though his 3.47 FIP and .300 xwOBA (vs 2.01 ERA and .269 wOBA) aren't bad by any means. He did succeed with a career-best 32.4% chase rate, but he's been pretty consistent with that metric throughout his career and his next best season was 32.3% in 2015 (3.26 ERA). Overall, it's hard to know what to expect from Buchholz going forward, but he has a very good chance of at least being a productive starter if he can maintain some of whatever gave him success in 2018. For his career, the southeast Texas native is 88-64 with a 3.86 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 985/442 strikeout to walk ratio in 224 games (206 starts) since 2007.
14. Matt Harvey (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 7-9, 4.94 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 131/37 K/BB, 155 IP in 32 games (28 starts)
The Matt Harvey who posted three straight seasons with an ERA under 2.75 from 2012-2015 (sitting out 2014 with Tommy John) isn't coming back, but Harvey doesn't turn 30 until spring training and had a great strikeout to walk ratio (131/37) in 2018 while turning around his season, and maybe his career, with the Reds. After posting a 7.00 ERA and a 20/9 strikeout to walk ratio before the trade, his ERA dropped to 4.50 in 24 starts with the Reds as he struck out 111 and walked 28 in 128 innings. A team that thinks it can bring Harvey further along towards its former self will hope to get a #4 starter out of him. For his career, the former UNC Tar Heel is 41-44 with a 3.80 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 723/203 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games (128 starts) since 2012.
15. Trevor Cahill (2019 Age: 31)
2018 Stats: 7-4, 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 100/41 K/BB, 110 IP in 21 games (20 starts)
Cahill has been very inconsistent throughout his career, serving as a valuable mid-rotation starter from 2009-2013 before being ineffective from 2014-2015, having a good year as a reliever in 2016, putting up and up and down 2017, and finally having a solid 2018. This past year, he was 7-4 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, the latter of which was his best since his 1.11 WHIP in 2010, and his 9.1% walk rate was his lowest since 2015. Overall, he can't be counted on to contribute a full season's worth of innings to a starting rotation, either because of injuries or because of ineffectiveness, with his most recent qualifying season (162+ IP) coming in 2012. He's likely a good option to make 20 or so solid starts. For his career, the San Diego area native is 80-83 with a 4.08 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 1007/548 strikeout to walk ratio over 304 games (208 starts) since 2009.
Other Notable
Derek Holland (7-9, 3.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 169/67 K/BB, 171. IP)
Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 50/27 K/BB, 80.2 IP)
Tyson Ross (8-9, 4.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 122/62 K/BB, 149.2 IP)
Martin Perez (2-7, 6.22 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 52/36 K/BB, 85.1 IP)
Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 2.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 135/42 K/BB, 136.2 IP)
Marco Estrada (7-14, 5.64 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 103/50 K/BB, 143.2 IP)
Ervin Santana (0-1, 8.03 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 16/9 K/BB, 24.2 IP)
Doug Fister (1-7, 4.50 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 40/19 K/BB, 66 IP)
Matt Moore (3-8, 6.79 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 86/41 K/BB, 102 IP)
Edwin Jackson (6-3, 3.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 68/37 K/BB, 92 IP)
Right Handed Relievers
Note: RE24 stands for Run Expectancy 24, a theoretical stat which measures the run expectancy subtracted from one at bat to the next. An RE24 of 5.00 would mean that a pitcher has taken five runs off his team's theoretical run expectancy based on the situations he inherited and left. Higher is better and it is both cumulative (like fWAR as opposed to ERA) and park adjusted. More here.
1. Craig Kimbrel (2019 Age: 30-31)
2018 Stats: 2.74 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 16.93 RE24, 96/31 K/BB, 62.1 IP in 63 appearances
Kimbrel is the best reliever on the market, and he'll probably make something close to the $80 and $86 million given to Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, respectively, though I don't think he'll reach quite that high. While Kimbrel was easily the best reliever in baseball from 2012-2014, he has been more inconsistent since 2015. His ERA reached as high as 3.40 in 2016, when his WHIP was a career-high 1.09 and his strikeout and walk rates were among the worst of his career. Then in 2017, his ERA dropped to 1.43, his WHIP to 0.68, and his strikeout and walk rates to among the best of his career. This past year was something in the middle, with a 2.74 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 38.9% strikeout rate to a 12.6% walk rate. Whether he can maintain himself as one of the best in the game going forward depends on whether he can maintain his command, which is a valid question, but he should continue to remain elite or at least very, very good for the next few seasons. He's also younger, turning 31 in May. For his career, the Huntsville, Alabama native has a 1.91 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and an 868/205 strikeout to walk ratio over 542 appearances.
2. Adam Ottavino (2019 Age: 33)
2018 Stats: 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 23.77 RE24, 112/36 K/BB, 77.2 IP in 75 appearances
Pitchers in Colorado often fly under the radar, and that is what Adam Ottavino has done. He doesn't have the name recognition of Craig Kimbrel, but he's a great option that will come slightly cheaper. Over 75 appearances this season, he had a 2.43 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 112/36 strikeout to walk ratio in 77.2 innings, finishing ninth in all of baseball (min. 50 IP) with his 36.3% strikeout rate, three spots behind Kimbrel and his 38.9% rate. While walks were a little bit of a problem, he was nearly un-hittable and should be a viable closing option wherever he goes. For his career, the righty out of Northeastern University has a 3.68 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 464/174 strikeout to walk ratio over 366 games (3 starts) since 2010.
3. Jeurys Familia (2019 Age: 29)
2018 Stats: 3.13 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.76 RE24, 83/28 K/BB, 72 IP in 70 appearances
Familia has had so much happen in his career, from ups and downs as the Mets closer to a 2016 domestic violence charge that was ultimately dropped to his 2018 trade to Oakland, that is easy to forget he'll spend the whole 2019 season at 29 years old. Familia was one of the better relievers in baseball from 2014-2016 when his ERA's were 2.21, 1.85, and 2.55, respectively, though recently he has fallen into more of a second tier category. In 2018, he posted a 3.13 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while striking out 83 and walking 28 over 72 innings, showing shut-down stuff on most nights but also being subject to the occasional rough game. He's younger than the above two options but less consistent, so he offers a cheaper option to those two, still with closing experience. For his career, the Dominican has a 2.73 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 369/143 strikeout to walk ratio over 343 games (one start) since 2012.
4. Kelvin Herrera (2019 Age: 29)
2018 Stats: 2.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.72 RE24, 38/10 K/BB, 44.1 IP in 48 appearances
Herrera, like Familia, was one of the better relievers in baseball from 2014-2016 with ERA's of 1.41, 2.71, and 2.75, respectively, though also like Familia, he was down a bit in 2017 and has been inconsistent in 2018. This year, as of June 21st (two games after his trade from Kansas City to Washington), he had a 0.98 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP, and a 22/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings. From then on, though, he had a 4.86 ERA, a 1.92 WHIP, and a 16/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.2 innings. It's hard to know what to expect out of him going forward, but he's likely to be at least a solid late-inning guy, and when he's at his best he's still one of the best in the game. Also in his favor is that he'll spend all of 2019 at 29 years old, making him one of the younger free agents available. For his career, the Dominican has a 2.82 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 454/136 strikeout to walk ratio over 463 appearances since 2011.
5. David Robertson (2019 Age: 34)
2018 Stats: 3.23 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.81 RE24, 91/26 K/BB, 69.2 IP in 69 appearances
Now about a decade into his run as one of the game's better relievers, Robertson has managed remarkable consistency while most relievers around him suffer through ups and downs. Since 2011, his ERA has never gone above 3.47 and his WHIP has reached above 1.17 just once. This past year, those numbers were 3.23 and 1.03, respectively, and even though he'll turn 34 at the start of next season, I see no reason he can't be a late-inning reliever for the next couple of seasons. As far as relievers go, he's a high floor, low ceiling option in terms of output; you know what you are going to get. For his career, the University of Alabama alumnus has a 2.88 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an 874/260 strikeout to walk ratio over 654 appearances since 2008.
6. Joakim Soria (2019 Age: 34-35)
2018 Stats: 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.23 RE24, 75/16 K/BB, 60.2 IP in 66 appearances
Soria finds himself in a very similar spot to Robertson. Both have been unusually consistent for relievers, with Soria's ERA never reaching above 4.05 in any of his ten major league seasons. Over the last few seasons, his walk rate has been dropping, and his component ratios (strikeouts to walks to batters faced) leave him in a very good position to continue to be successful in the short run. Like Robertson, he's a safe bet, but probably at a slightly lower level of production. For his career, the Mexico native has a 2.88 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 688/189 strikeout to walk ratio over 639 appearances since 2007.
7. Cody Allen (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 4.70 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 3.30 RE24, 80/36 K/BB, 67 IP in 70 appearances
After five straight seasons with ERA's below 3.00, it wasn't a great season for Cody Allen. His ERA ballooned from 2.94 last year to 4.70 this year while his WHIP jumped from 1.16 to 1.36. While he wasn't actually quite as bad as the ERA might say, he still wasn't great and his walk rate jumped to a career high 11.4% while his strikeout rate dropped to a career-low 27.7%. His velocity has also been trending down, and he's just no as deceptive as he was in years' past, which is interesting because he's just turning 30 at the beginning of the offseason. He's young enough to bounce back, but the trends aren't in his favor and I'm not confident he can drop his ERA back below 3.00 consistently. For his career, the Orlando native has a 2.98 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 564/173 strikeout to walk ratio over 456 appearances since 2012.
Other Notable
Tyler Clippard (3.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 5.32 RE24, 85/23 K/BB, 68.2 IP)
Greg Holland (4.66 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, -9.14 RE24, 47/32 K/BB, 46.1 IP)
Joe Kelly (4.39 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 3.10 RE24, 68/32 K/BB, 65.2 IP)
Adam Warren (3.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.88 RE24, 52/20 K/BB, 51.2 IP)
Sergio Romo (4.14 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, -4.39 RE24, 75/20 K/BB, 67.1 IP)
David Phelps (did not play - injured)
Left Handed Relievers
1. Andrew Miller (2019 Age: 33-34)
2018 Stats: 4.24 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 4.80 RE24, 45/16 K/BB, 34 IP in 37 appearances
After four years as the game's premier left handed reliever, Miller made three separate trips to the disabled list in 2018 while battling hamstring, knee, and shoulder problems. In between, his 4.24 ERA and 1.38 WHIP were his highest marks since 2011, when he was a starter for the Red Sox. His strikeout rate also dipped below 30% for the first time since that year. It seems that his troubles likely originated from those injuries, as it is really tough to get anything going when you're always playing hurt. To me, his production in 2019 will not be a matter of his performance, but his ability to stay healthy and on the mound. A healthy Miller likely drops his ERA back below 3.00, in my opinion, even though he turns 34 in May. For his career, the former UNC Tar Heel has a 3.98 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an 853/335 strikeout to walk ratio over 483 games (66 starts) since 2006.
2. Zach Britton (2019 Age: 31)
2018 Stats: 3.10 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5.15 RE24, 34/21 K/BB, 40.2 IP in 41 appearances
It has been mostly downhill since Britton posted a 0.54 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 2016, finding himself on and off the disabled list. He still posted a 3.10 ERA over 41 appearances this year, though his 20.1% strikeout rate and career-high 12.4% walk rate leave something to be desired. He's still young, turning 31 in December, so his signing team should still hope to get a late-inning reliever out of him. For his career, the Weatherford, Texas native has a 3.21 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 446/205 strikeout to walk ratio over 331 games (46 starts) since 2011.
3. Justin Wilson (2019 Age: 31)
2018 Stats: 3.46 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 4.82 RE24, 69/33 K/BB, 54.2 IP in 71 appearances
Wilson has been up and down throughout his career, but with a rising walk rate, he's looking closer to a lefty specialist than the closer he was for much of 2017. In 2018, lefties slashed just .188/.301/.342 with a 34.4% strikeout rate against him, while right handed hitters hit a healthier .244/.350/.358 with a 25.9% strikeout rate. He's not strictly a specialist at this point, but the Cubs clearly saw a little bit of that in him as he managed just 54.2 innings in his 71 appearances, well under an inning per appearance. For his career, the former Fresno State Bulldog has a 3.33 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 407/166 strikeout rate over 412 appearances since 2012.
Other Notable
Tony Sipp (1.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 14.64 RE24, 42/13 K/BB, 38.2 IP)
Zach Duke (4.15 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 2.27 RE24, 51/21 K/BB, 52 IP)
Oliver Perez (1.39 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 17.55 RE24, 43/7 K/BB, 32.1 IP)
Jake Diekman (4.73 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, -4.58 RE24, 66/31 K/BB, 53.1 IP)
Jerry Blevins (4.85 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, -6.20 RE24, 41/22 K/BB, 42.2 IP)
1. Patrick Corbin (2019 Age: 29-30)
2018 Stats: 11-7, 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 246/48 K/BB, 200 IP in 33 starts
There are no true aces available on the market this year, though 29 year old Patrick Corbin is arguably the closest. He has been improving steadily over the past three seasons, dropping his ERA from 5.15 in 2016 to 4.03 in 2017 and 3.15 in 2018 while increasing his strikeout rate from 18.7% to 21.6% to 30.8%. His big success in 2018 even came while losing velocity on his fastballs, which have dropped about 1.5 MPH over the past year. Still, you can't argue with the results this year, and the high strikeout rate paired with the low walk rate shows that very little luck was involved in his big season. As one of the younger arms available (he turns 30 in July), he has the ability to continue pitching at this #2 to #3 starter level for quite a few years, making him a candidate for a long term deal. For his career, the Syracuse native is 56-54 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an 897/271 strikeout to walk ratio over 172 games (154 starts) since 2012.
2. Dallas Keuchel (2019 Age: 31)
2018 Stats: 12-11, 3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 153/58 K/BB, 204.2 IP in 34 starts
Keuchel is a similar option to Corbin in terms of projection, though while Corbin is a strikeout pitcher, Keuchel gets his outs with ground balls. It's a more sustainable model for success later into into his career, but it's also more volatile due to the nature of batted balls (a strikeout is a strikeout regardless of luck, but bad luck with ground balls leads to more hits). He has to be weary that he was getting fewer swings and misses on all of his pitches, so continuing to keep the ball on the ground will be key for him. I think this season is indicative of how he will pitch going forward, as a solid #2 or #3 starter. For his career, the former Arkansas Razorback is 76-63 with a 3.66 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 945/343 strikeout to walk ratio over 192 games (183 starts) since 2012.
3. Charlie Morton (2019 Age: 35)
2018 Stats: 15-3, 3.13 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 201/64 K/BB, 167 IP in 30 starts
Charlie Morton's career looked like it was on the downswing in 2015 and, if you weren't looking closely, 2016. After posting a 4.81 ERA in 2015, he literally just decided to throw harder over the offseason. He was injured for much of 2016 but kept with the new deal, and he has been lights out ever since. Between 2017 and 2018, he went 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, striking out 364 and walking 114 in 313.2 innings. All of this by just deciding to throw harder. He literally added about 2.5 MPH to his sinker and nearly 4 MPH to his fastball, and the result has been taking a back-end starter and making him into a solid #3 or even #2 starter. Turning 35 this offseason, he won't get a long term deal, but he'll be a very useful starting pitcher for any team over the next couple of seasons. For his career, the Connecticut native is 75-81 with a 4.23 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 994/451 strikeout to walk ratio over 217 games (216 starts) since 2008.
4. Nathan Eovaldi (2019 Age: 29)
2018 Stats: 6-7, 3.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 101/20 K/BB, 111 IP in 22 games (21 starts)
It's hard to peg Eovaldi's value exactly because he has a lot of factors in his favor and a lot against him, and it all averages out to an average pitcher. He missed the 2017 season with Tommy John surgery and hasn't qualified for the ERA title (162+ IP) since 2014. However, he's been pretty consistent when on the mound, and he posted his second best ERA (3.81), best WHIP (1.13), and best K/BB (101/20) in 2018. Flipping back to the negative side, that 2014 season was his only full season. And on the positive, he turns 29 in February and is one of the youngest free agent starters available. Going forward, the hard throwing right hander has built his value up enough with a strong postseason to be a safe bet to be a valuable #3 or #4 starter, but only if he's healthy. The health isn't a safe bet, which knocks his value, but overall he'll be a good addition to any rotation that has the depth to make up for injuries should they strike. His excellent performance in the playoffs certainly helps. For his career, the Houston area native is 44-53 with a 4.16 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 640/259 strikeout to walk ratio in 156 games (148 starts) since 2011.
5. Hyun-Jin Ryu (2019 Age: 32)
2018 Stats: 7-3, 1.97 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB, 82.1 IP in 15 starts
Ryu, like Eovaldi, is difficult to rank. He is clearly a #2 starter when healthy, but health has been a huge issue with trips to the disabled list stemming from his shoulder, elbow, both hips, foot, and groin all since 2014, which was also the last time he threw 150 innings in a season. This year, Ryu was dynamite when he was actually on the mound, posting a 1.97 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and an 89/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings. While he's not a guy that will sustain those numbers over a full season, he has proven he is perfectly capable of ERA's consistently below 3.50 when on the mound. While age might render him even more susceptible to injury, he's healthy right now, and that's saying a lot. For his career, the South Korean lefty is 40-28 with a 3.20 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 502/140 strikeout to walk ratio over 97 games (96 starts) since 2013.
6. J.A. Happ (2019 Age: 36)
2018 Stats: 17-6, 3.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 193/51 K/BB, 177.2 IP in 31 starts
J.A. Happ may have just turned 36 during the playoffs, but he's still a valuable #3 starter even in his mid 30's. He has made at least 25 starts in each of the past five seasons and has kept his ERA below 3.70 in each of the past four, and deeper analytics show no sign of him slowing down. I think he's the safest bet on this list, at least in the short term, to give you exactly what you expect: 150-180 innings, a sub-4.00 ERA, good command, and relative start-to-start consistency. He only ranks this low because even just a three year deal will see him pitch right up to his 39th birthday. For his career, the former Northwestern Wildcat is 109-82 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 1357/556 strikeout to walk ratio over 284 games (259 starts) since 2007.
7. Yusei Kikuchi (2019 Age: 27-28)
2018 Stats (NPB): 14-4, 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 153/45 K/BB, 163.2 IP in 23 starts
Japan's Seibu Lions will be posting 27 year old lefty Yusei Kikuchi this year, and he could be a mid-rotation starter right off the bat. In 2017, Kikuchi had a huge year in Japan by going 16-6 with a 1.97 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a 217/49 strikeout to walk ratio in 187.2 innings. He took a minor step back in 2018 with a 3.08 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 153/45 strikeout to walk ratio in 163.2 innings, but he was still effective with a 23.4% strikeout rate and just a 6.9% walk rate. Kikuchi throws a mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a curve and changeup, the classic mid-rotation arsenal, and he commands it all well. For his career (in Japan), Kikuchi is 73-46 with a 2.77 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 903/371 strikeout to walk ratio over 158 starts since 2011.
8. Lance Lynn (2019 Age: 32)
2018 Stats: 10-10, 4.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 161/76 K/BB, 156.2 IP in 31 games (29 starts)
After years of being a well above average starter, Lynn's ERA jumped above 4.00 for the first time in his seven year career, landing way up there at 4.77. He was actually throwing a little bit harder and was keeping the ball on the ground better in 2018, but he stopped throwing strikes and his walk rate rose to a career-high 10.9%. Interestingly, even though Lynn's 3.43 ERA in 2017 was far better than his 4.77 ERA in 2018, deeper analytics such as FIP and xwOBA actually think he was a better pitcher in 2018 and the difference was simply luck. I somewhat agree, and while I think he's done with those ERA's around 3.00, I think he settles in around 4.00 for the next few seasons, considering he doesn't turn 32 until May. For his career, the former Ole Miss Rebel is 82-57 with a 3.57 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 1080/445 strikeout to walk ratio over 214 games (190 starts) since 2011.
9. Drew Pomeranz (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 2-6, 6.08 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 66/44 K/BB, 74 IP in 26 games (11 starts)
It's tough to know exactly where to rank Pomeranz, who was an above average starting pitcher from 2016-2017 (38-18, 3.32 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 360/134 K/BB) but who struggled in 2018 (2-6, 6.08 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 66/44 K/BB). He has always been inconsistent, interspersing dominant stretches with times where it looked like he couldn't get anyone out. While he was at his best often in that 2016-2017 stretch, 2018 was a different ballgame as he lost about 1-2 MPH and forgot how to throw strikes. He turns 30 in a few weeks, so he's one of the younger free agents available, and a team that thinks they can unlock his 2016-2017 success will have a young, effective arm on their pitching staff. For his career, Lance Lynn's Ole Miss teammate is 44-48 with a 3.92 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 687/305 strikeout to walk ratio over 196 games (122 starts) since 2011.
10. Gio Gonzalez (2019 Age: 33)
2018 Stats: 10-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 148/80 K/BB, 171 IP in 32 starts
Honestly, it's hard to know what to expect from Gio Gonzalez. After watching him for six and a half years in Washington, I can tell you that you never know what kind of game Gio is going to have until about the fourth or fifth inning. He tends to cruise early on before either finishing off a gem or falling apart, and it has led to wildly erratic seasons: a 4.57 ERA in 2016, 2.96 in 2017, and 4.21 in 2018. You can look at him month to month, as he posted a 2.10 ERA over the first two months this year, a 6.53 ERA over the next three months, and a 2.13 ERA in the final month. He'll probably continue to be maddeningly inconsistent over the next couple of seasons, but with enough good days to fit into most rotations. On his side is the fact that his one consistent attribute has been health, making at least 27 starts in each of the past nine seasons and at least 31 starts in each of the past four. For his career, the Miami native is 127-97 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 1748/759 strikeout to walk ratio over 313 games (307 starts) since 2008.
11. Garrett Richards (2019 Age: 30-31)
2018 Stats: 5-4, 3.66 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 87/34 K/BB, 76.1 IP in 16 starts
Honestly, I have no idea where to rank a guy who might not even pitch in 2019, so I'll slap him at number ten. Richards is an immensely talented arm who should already have a $100 million plus contract by now if he could actually stay healthy, and while he is 6-9 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over his last 28 starts, those 28 starts have been the entirety of his last three seasons. He'll miss most if not all of 2019 as well after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July, so he'll likely get at least a two year deal with most of the money deferred. There is recent precedent for this, with the Rays signing Nathan Eovaldi to a two year deal before the 2017 season with full knowledge he would not pitch until 2018, and it worked out for them. Richards is a better arm, near ace-like when he is healthy, though his high numbers of unearned runs should be a minor red flag. He's so talented that I really hope he can get it together and have a productive, healthy 2020 season. For his career, the former Oklahoma Sooner is 45-38 with a 3.54 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 645/268 strikeout to walk ratio over 170 games (115 starts) since 2011.
12. Jeremy Hellickson (2019 Age: 32)
2018 Stats: 5-3, 3.45 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 65/20 K/BB, 91.1 IP in 19 starts
If it weren't for a down 2017 (5.43 ERA, 96/47 K/BB), Jeremy Hellickson would be a higher profile free agent this winter. He was very good in 2016 (3.71 ERA, 154/45 K/BB), and he was pitching well in 2018 (3.45 ERA, 65/20 K/BB) before a wrist injury shut him down for the most part in August. Turning 32 at the start of the 2019 season, he's not old as far as free agents go and probably has a few productive seasons in him as a #4 starter. While he hasn't been the most consistent, he is very effective during many stretches. For his career, the Des Moines native is 74-72 with a 4.07 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an 899/365 strikeout to walk ratio over 223 games (216 starts) since 2010.
13. Clay Buchholz (2019 Age: 34-35)
2018 Stats: 7-2, 2.01 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 81/22 K/BB, 98.1 IP in 16 starts
Honestly, it's hard to say what happened for Clay Buchholz in 2018. Released by the Royals in May, he ended up going 7-2 with a 2.01 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 16 starts for the Diamondbacks, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 14 of those 16 starts. His velocity was actually down, dropping 2-3 MPH from where he sat in his healthy 2015-2016 seasons. He also outperformed his peripheral stats, though his 3.47 FIP and .300 xwOBA (vs 2.01 ERA and .269 wOBA) aren't bad by any means. He did succeed with a career-best 32.4% chase rate, but he's been pretty consistent with that metric throughout his career and his next best season was 32.3% in 2015 (3.26 ERA). Overall, it's hard to know what to expect from Buchholz going forward, but he has a very good chance of at least being a productive starter if he can maintain some of whatever gave him success in 2018. For his career, the southeast Texas native is 88-64 with a 3.86 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 985/442 strikeout to walk ratio in 224 games (206 starts) since 2007.
14. Matt Harvey (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 7-9, 4.94 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 131/37 K/BB, 155 IP in 32 games (28 starts)
The Matt Harvey who posted three straight seasons with an ERA under 2.75 from 2012-2015 (sitting out 2014 with Tommy John) isn't coming back, but Harvey doesn't turn 30 until spring training and had a great strikeout to walk ratio (131/37) in 2018 while turning around his season, and maybe his career, with the Reds. After posting a 7.00 ERA and a 20/9 strikeout to walk ratio before the trade, his ERA dropped to 4.50 in 24 starts with the Reds as he struck out 111 and walked 28 in 128 innings. A team that thinks it can bring Harvey further along towards its former self will hope to get a #4 starter out of him. For his career, the former UNC Tar Heel is 41-44 with a 3.80 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 723/203 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games (128 starts) since 2012.
15. Trevor Cahill (2019 Age: 31)
2018 Stats: 7-4, 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 100/41 K/BB, 110 IP in 21 games (20 starts)
Cahill has been very inconsistent throughout his career, serving as a valuable mid-rotation starter from 2009-2013 before being ineffective from 2014-2015, having a good year as a reliever in 2016, putting up and up and down 2017, and finally having a solid 2018. This past year, he was 7-4 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, the latter of which was his best since his 1.11 WHIP in 2010, and his 9.1% walk rate was his lowest since 2015. Overall, he can't be counted on to contribute a full season's worth of innings to a starting rotation, either because of injuries or because of ineffectiveness, with his most recent qualifying season (162+ IP) coming in 2012. He's likely a good option to make 20 or so solid starts. For his career, the San Diego area native is 80-83 with a 4.08 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 1007/548 strikeout to walk ratio over 304 games (208 starts) since 2009.
Other Notable
Derek Holland (7-9, 3.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 169/67 K/BB, 171. IP)
Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 50/27 K/BB, 80.2 IP)
Tyson Ross (8-9, 4.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 122/62 K/BB, 149.2 IP)
Martin Perez (2-7, 6.22 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 52/36 K/BB, 85.1 IP)
Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 2.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 135/42 K/BB, 136.2 IP)
Marco Estrada (7-14, 5.64 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 103/50 K/BB, 143.2 IP)
Ervin Santana (0-1, 8.03 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 16/9 K/BB, 24.2 IP)
Doug Fister (1-7, 4.50 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 40/19 K/BB, 66 IP)
Matt Moore (3-8, 6.79 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 86/41 K/BB, 102 IP)
Edwin Jackson (6-3, 3.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 68/37 K/BB, 92 IP)
Right Handed Relievers
Note: RE24 stands for Run Expectancy 24, a theoretical stat which measures the run expectancy subtracted from one at bat to the next. An RE24 of 5.00 would mean that a pitcher has taken five runs off his team's theoretical run expectancy based on the situations he inherited and left. Higher is better and it is both cumulative (like fWAR as opposed to ERA) and park adjusted. More here.
1. Craig Kimbrel (2019 Age: 30-31)
2018 Stats: 2.74 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 16.93 RE24, 96/31 K/BB, 62.1 IP in 63 appearances
Kimbrel is the best reliever on the market, and he'll probably make something close to the $80 and $86 million given to Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, respectively, though I don't think he'll reach quite that high. While Kimbrel was easily the best reliever in baseball from 2012-2014, he has been more inconsistent since 2015. His ERA reached as high as 3.40 in 2016, when his WHIP was a career-high 1.09 and his strikeout and walk rates were among the worst of his career. Then in 2017, his ERA dropped to 1.43, his WHIP to 0.68, and his strikeout and walk rates to among the best of his career. This past year was something in the middle, with a 2.74 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 38.9% strikeout rate to a 12.6% walk rate. Whether he can maintain himself as one of the best in the game going forward depends on whether he can maintain his command, which is a valid question, but he should continue to remain elite or at least very, very good for the next few seasons. He's also younger, turning 31 in May. For his career, the Huntsville, Alabama native has a 1.91 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and an 868/205 strikeout to walk ratio over 542 appearances.
2. Adam Ottavino (2019 Age: 33)
2018 Stats: 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 23.77 RE24, 112/36 K/BB, 77.2 IP in 75 appearances
Pitchers in Colorado often fly under the radar, and that is what Adam Ottavino has done. He doesn't have the name recognition of Craig Kimbrel, but he's a great option that will come slightly cheaper. Over 75 appearances this season, he had a 2.43 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 112/36 strikeout to walk ratio in 77.2 innings, finishing ninth in all of baseball (min. 50 IP) with his 36.3% strikeout rate, three spots behind Kimbrel and his 38.9% rate. While walks were a little bit of a problem, he was nearly un-hittable and should be a viable closing option wherever he goes. For his career, the righty out of Northeastern University has a 3.68 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 464/174 strikeout to walk ratio over 366 games (3 starts) since 2010.
3. Jeurys Familia (2019 Age: 29)
2018 Stats: 3.13 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.76 RE24, 83/28 K/BB, 72 IP in 70 appearances
Familia has had so much happen in his career, from ups and downs as the Mets closer to a 2016 domestic violence charge that was ultimately dropped to his 2018 trade to Oakland, that is easy to forget he'll spend the whole 2019 season at 29 years old. Familia was one of the better relievers in baseball from 2014-2016 when his ERA's were 2.21, 1.85, and 2.55, respectively, though recently he has fallen into more of a second tier category. In 2018, he posted a 3.13 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while striking out 83 and walking 28 over 72 innings, showing shut-down stuff on most nights but also being subject to the occasional rough game. He's younger than the above two options but less consistent, so he offers a cheaper option to those two, still with closing experience. For his career, the Dominican has a 2.73 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 369/143 strikeout to walk ratio over 343 games (one start) since 2012.
4. Kelvin Herrera (2019 Age: 29)
2018 Stats: 2.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.72 RE24, 38/10 K/BB, 44.1 IP in 48 appearances
Herrera, like Familia, was one of the better relievers in baseball from 2014-2016 with ERA's of 1.41, 2.71, and 2.75, respectively, though also like Familia, he was down a bit in 2017 and has been inconsistent in 2018. This year, as of June 21st (two games after his trade from Kansas City to Washington), he had a 0.98 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP, and a 22/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings. From then on, though, he had a 4.86 ERA, a 1.92 WHIP, and a 16/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.2 innings. It's hard to know what to expect out of him going forward, but he's likely to be at least a solid late-inning guy, and when he's at his best he's still one of the best in the game. Also in his favor is that he'll spend all of 2019 at 29 years old, making him one of the younger free agents available. For his career, the Dominican has a 2.82 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 454/136 strikeout to walk ratio over 463 appearances since 2011.
5. David Robertson (2019 Age: 34)
2018 Stats: 3.23 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.81 RE24, 91/26 K/BB, 69.2 IP in 69 appearances
Now about a decade into his run as one of the game's better relievers, Robertson has managed remarkable consistency while most relievers around him suffer through ups and downs. Since 2011, his ERA has never gone above 3.47 and his WHIP has reached above 1.17 just once. This past year, those numbers were 3.23 and 1.03, respectively, and even though he'll turn 34 at the start of next season, I see no reason he can't be a late-inning reliever for the next couple of seasons. As far as relievers go, he's a high floor, low ceiling option in terms of output; you know what you are going to get. For his career, the University of Alabama alumnus has a 2.88 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an 874/260 strikeout to walk ratio over 654 appearances since 2008.
6. Joakim Soria (2019 Age: 34-35)
2018 Stats: 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.23 RE24, 75/16 K/BB, 60.2 IP in 66 appearances
Soria finds himself in a very similar spot to Robertson. Both have been unusually consistent for relievers, with Soria's ERA never reaching above 4.05 in any of his ten major league seasons. Over the last few seasons, his walk rate has been dropping, and his component ratios (strikeouts to walks to batters faced) leave him in a very good position to continue to be successful in the short run. Like Robertson, he's a safe bet, but probably at a slightly lower level of production. For his career, the Mexico native has a 2.88 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 688/189 strikeout to walk ratio over 639 appearances since 2007.
7. Cody Allen (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 4.70 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 3.30 RE24, 80/36 K/BB, 67 IP in 70 appearances
After five straight seasons with ERA's below 3.00, it wasn't a great season for Cody Allen. His ERA ballooned from 2.94 last year to 4.70 this year while his WHIP jumped from 1.16 to 1.36. While he wasn't actually quite as bad as the ERA might say, he still wasn't great and his walk rate jumped to a career high 11.4% while his strikeout rate dropped to a career-low 27.7%. His velocity has also been trending down, and he's just no as deceptive as he was in years' past, which is interesting because he's just turning 30 at the beginning of the offseason. He's young enough to bounce back, but the trends aren't in his favor and I'm not confident he can drop his ERA back below 3.00 consistently. For his career, the Orlando native has a 2.98 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 564/173 strikeout to walk ratio over 456 appearances since 2012.
Other Notable
Tyler Clippard (3.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 5.32 RE24, 85/23 K/BB, 68.2 IP)
Greg Holland (4.66 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, -9.14 RE24, 47/32 K/BB, 46.1 IP)
Joe Kelly (4.39 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 3.10 RE24, 68/32 K/BB, 65.2 IP)
Adam Warren (3.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.88 RE24, 52/20 K/BB, 51.2 IP)
Sergio Romo (4.14 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, -4.39 RE24, 75/20 K/BB, 67.1 IP)
David Phelps (did not play - injured)
Left Handed Relievers
1. Andrew Miller (2019 Age: 33-34)
2018 Stats: 4.24 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 4.80 RE24, 45/16 K/BB, 34 IP in 37 appearances
After four years as the game's premier left handed reliever, Miller made three separate trips to the disabled list in 2018 while battling hamstring, knee, and shoulder problems. In between, his 4.24 ERA and 1.38 WHIP were his highest marks since 2011, when he was a starter for the Red Sox. His strikeout rate also dipped below 30% for the first time since that year. It seems that his troubles likely originated from those injuries, as it is really tough to get anything going when you're always playing hurt. To me, his production in 2019 will not be a matter of his performance, but his ability to stay healthy and on the mound. A healthy Miller likely drops his ERA back below 3.00, in my opinion, even though he turns 34 in May. For his career, the former UNC Tar Heel has a 3.98 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an 853/335 strikeout to walk ratio over 483 games (66 starts) since 2006.
2. Zach Britton (2019 Age: 31)
2018 Stats: 3.10 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5.15 RE24, 34/21 K/BB, 40.2 IP in 41 appearances
It has been mostly downhill since Britton posted a 0.54 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 2016, finding himself on and off the disabled list. He still posted a 3.10 ERA over 41 appearances this year, though his 20.1% strikeout rate and career-high 12.4% walk rate leave something to be desired. He's still young, turning 31 in December, so his signing team should still hope to get a late-inning reliever out of him. For his career, the Weatherford, Texas native has a 3.21 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 446/205 strikeout to walk ratio over 331 games (46 starts) since 2011.
3. Justin Wilson (2019 Age: 31)
2018 Stats: 3.46 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 4.82 RE24, 69/33 K/BB, 54.2 IP in 71 appearances
Wilson has been up and down throughout his career, but with a rising walk rate, he's looking closer to a lefty specialist than the closer he was for much of 2017. In 2018, lefties slashed just .188/.301/.342 with a 34.4% strikeout rate against him, while right handed hitters hit a healthier .244/.350/.358 with a 25.9% strikeout rate. He's not strictly a specialist at this point, but the Cubs clearly saw a little bit of that in him as he managed just 54.2 innings in his 71 appearances, well under an inning per appearance. For his career, the former Fresno State Bulldog has a 3.33 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 407/166 strikeout rate over 412 appearances since 2012.
Other Notable
Tony Sipp (1.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 14.64 RE24, 42/13 K/BB, 38.2 IP)
Zach Duke (4.15 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 2.27 RE24, 51/21 K/BB, 52 IP)
Oliver Perez (1.39 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 17.55 RE24, 43/7 K/BB, 32.1 IP)
Jake Diekman (4.73 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, -4.58 RE24, 66/31 K/BB, 53.1 IP)
Jerry Blevins (4.85 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, -6.20 RE24, 41/22 K/BB, 42.2 IP)
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