Showing posts with label Shane Sdao. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Shane Sdao. Show all posts

Monday, August 10, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

The Mets' draft was one of the more surprising of the event. They started off by taking projected third rounder Carson Wiggins in the first round, then grabbed projected first rounder Aiden Robbins in the third round. It's not uncommon for players to slip around the draft as teams play bonus pool games, but that was not the case here as both signed for close to slot value. As it turned out, the Mets played most of the draft pretty true to slot value, always more or less staying pretty close. It was a very pitching-heavy class that saw just six position players drafted out of nineteen picks, including just one of their first seven. Wiggins and Robbins are the crown jewels but many pitchers in this class possess sleeper traits that could make an impact on future pitching staffs in Queens.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-27: RHP Carson Wiggins, Arkansas
Slot value: $3.47 million. Signing bonus: $3.46 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #82. MLB Pipeline: #88. ESPN: #90.
In one of the biggest surprises of a first round that was full of surprises, the Mets selected Carson Wiggins far earlier than most expected. Failing to crack the top 75 at any major publication, the Mets are betting on his tremendous arm talent to justify an early jump. Carson Wiggins pitched at Roland High School in eastern Oklahoma alongside his brother Jaxon, now one of the top prospects in the Cubs organization, where he was a nationally-known draft prospect and turned down large offers to attend Arkansas. He flashed his massive upside as a freshman in 2025, touching as high as 102 with his fastball and striking out over a third of his opponents, but went down with Tommy John surgery after just 14 innings and missed the rest of the season. Controversy surrounded his 2026 season as he remained sidelined, where conflicting reports about his health and availability frustrated the Arkansas coaching staff, especially after he appeared fully healthy at the MLB Draft Combine shortly after the Razorbacks were eliminated in the Lawrence Regional. Wiggins' stuff revolves around his arm talent. His fastball sits in the upper 90's in short stints, blowing by even advanced hitters. He also rips off a plus slider that could become a real big league wipeout pitch with more refinement, while his splitter has flashed upside as well to give him a potentially lethal three pitch mix. The 6'5" righty doesn't throw with a ton of effort, making his triple digit velocity even more impressive, but he has always struggled immensely with command. Wiggins has very little pitchability at this point and mostly relies on power and movement to overwhelm hitters, but in many cases pitchability can be taught. The potential for two 70 grade pitches cannot be taught. New York will look to get him more consistent with his secondary pitches and learn to work to different parts of the zone, giving him a little bit longer of a development curve than most SEC arms. The upside, however, is tremendous if he can get anywhere close to average command.

3-92: OF Aiden Robbins, Texas
Slot value: $859,900. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($137,600 above slot value).
My rank: #29. MLB Pipeline: #29. ESPN: #74.
Aiden Robbins was projected to go in the late first round or in the comp round, with some projecting him as high as #20 to the Red Sox, so getting him here in the third round is a coup for the Mets. He began his career at Seton Hall, where he hit .438 as a sophomore and earned the opportunity to transfer to Texas. After homering ten times over two years in South Orange, his power exploded in Austin and he blasted 24 while slashing .333/.426/.696 against a much tougher schedule. He is a barrel magnet that consistently finds the fat part of the bat, consistently tapping his above average raw power in games. It's a balanced load and an explosive operation in the plate that gets the barrel long through the zone and elevates consistently. He has a very patient approach and has performed everywhere he has gone, including hitting .339/.423/.697 in SEC play against many of the country's best arms this past spring and hitting .323/.390/.543 over 33 combined games in the elite Cape Cod League the previous two summers. Robbins' main weakness at the plate is in-zone swing and miss, running higher rates than many teams would like and leading to an elevated 28.4% strikeout rate on the Cape. Still, he is adept at making adjustments and has performed everywhere he's been, and even struck out at a lower clip in SEC play (20.8%) than he did against a softer schedule outside of it (24.7%). The Mets clearly are believers in the hit tool and think the Philadelphia-area product can become a 20+ home run, decent on-base bat that could fit as a #5 hitter-type in the lineup. An above average runner, he has enough arm strength to profile in right field or could fit as an above average left fielder. Either way, most of his value will be tied up in his right handed bat, so the Mets will look for him to hit and hit for impact.

4-120: LHP Shane Sdao, Texas A&M
Slot value: $645,100. Signing bonus: $642,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #115. MLB Pipeline: #95. ESPN: #159.
Shane Sdao is not the most straightforward draft case, but neither was Carson Wiggins and like Wiggins, there is a lot of talent here. Sdao stood out as a freshman reliever on the 2023 Texas A&M team, then took a step forward for an excellent turn as a sophomore swingman in 2024 (2.96 ERA, 55/9 K/BB in 48.2 IP). Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2025 season before it even began, and after ranking #101 on my 2025 big board he elected to return to campus as the top-ranked unsigned college player in the class. As it turned out, 2026 did not go his way as he struggled to a 7.03 ERA including an ugly 9.30 mark in conference play, but his talent kept teams coming back even as he got shelled. Before the injury, he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touched 97 in short stints, adding a plus wipeout slider and a solid changeup all while pounding the strike zone with plus command. Previously throwing from a low three quarters slot, his release point rose a bit in 2026 coming off the injury and his stuff took a step back. The fastball was more ordinary in the low 90's, while his slider lacked the deep finish and looked more like an above average breaker than a plus one. His walk rate also climbed from 4.6% as a sophomore to 5.9% as a redshirt junior, still a very good number but not quite plus at this point. The Mets believe they are drafting the 2024 Shane Sdao with the wipeout two pitch mix and plus command, and they will work with him to reorient his delivery and get back to the dominant arm he was. Though he'll turn 23 in September, the Houston-area native has a chance to become a #4 starter at peak, or could top out as a mid-leverage reliever if the 2026 Shane Sdao is the real Shane Sdao from here on out.

5-152: RHP Luke McNeillie, Florida
Slot value: $472,500. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($25,000 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #185. ESPN: #113.
Luke McNeillie has a chance to be a sneaky pick for the Mets in the fifth round. A high-end pitching prospect coming out of high school in the Atlanta area in 2023, he spurned large pro offers to reach campus at Florida and has been a fixture for the Gators for three seasons, making 72 appearances. Known for a premium combination of stuff and polish in high school, the former has taken a step forward in college while the latter has stagnated a little bit as he has been unable to break through a crowded Florida rotation picture to earn regular starts. Pitching mostly in shorter stints in relief, his fastball has sat mid to upper 90's and reached 99 at peak with life to miss bats. His tight upper 80's slider stands out both for power and movement, looking like a plus pitch at best that can dive under barrels late. His changeup is a fringier pitch that he uses mostly for left handed batters, rounding out his arsenal. The 6'3" righty has ran walk rates above 10% in all three of his collegiate seasons, leading to his falling behind in many counts and getting hit when he comes back over the plate. The Mets believe there is more to unlock from McNeillie's ideal pitcher's frame and quick right arm, with a bit better body control potentially leading him closer to average command. New York also intends to develop him as a starter, where he'll need to tighten the command further, and he has the upside as a mid-rotation arm if he can do that while bringing along the changeup. If not, he's a fastball/slider relief type who could figure prominently into future Mets bullpen plans.

7-210: RHP Aidan Keenan, Stanford
Slot value: $287,800. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($59,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Aiden Keenan, like Luke McNeillie, was a prominent name in the 2023 high school class and earned top five round consideration from teams, though he ultimately withdrew from the draft to attend Stanford. Three years later, he hasn't found much success in Palo Alto with a career 5.79 ERA over just 65.1 innings, working as a full time relieve in 2025 before moving to the rotation in a 2026 season that was ultimately interrupted by an oblique injury. He looked strong in an MLB Draft Combine appearance in June and threw five solid innings in the Cape Cod League leading up to the draft, leading the Mets to take a shot on his considerable arm talent. It's a loud fastball in the mid 90's, averaging the third highest velocity of any pitcher at the combine (97.4 MPH) in addition to the highest spin rate (2587 RPM) and the fifth most IVB (19 inches). With its combination of power and ride, it has a chance to be a plus pitch even if it didn't get great results in college. His slider is another potential wipeout offering in the mid 80's with power and tilt, looking like a potential plus pitch in pro ball, while he also works in a cutter and changeup more infrequently. Keenan has consistently pitched to poor results due to a high effort delivery that has given him below average command, running a poor 14.9% walk rate throughout his college career including an even poorer 19.4% mark in 2026. His style of pitching likely fits better in the bullpen, where he can focus on his fastball/slider combination in short stints and take pressure off his command. Even if he makes significant strides in regards to his pitchability, he still will likely never have average command. This is a loud two pitch mix that could move quickly up the minor league rungs and serve towards the back of the Mets bullpen if he can get to fringy command.

11-330: OF Kuhio Aloy, Arkansas
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $217,500 ($67,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
The younger brother of Orioles prospect and fellow Razorback Wehiwa Aloy, Kuhio began his career at BYU but transferred to Arkansas after one year. He burst onto the scene as a sophomore and hit .317/.404/.539 to earn First Team All-SEC honors and position himself as a solid draft prospect for the 2026 season. Though he regressed a bit as a junior, he still provides a high-upside bat for the Mets. He has plus raw power that has helped him hit thirty home runs over his three years in college, but he could tap more of it in pro ball with some improvements to his approach that saw him run a 24.1% strikeout rate to just a 7.5% walk rate in 2026. The Hawaiian's aggressive tendencies consistently leave him behind the count and susceptible to chasing offspeed stuff, also creating poorer contact quality when he does connect. He showed what he was capable of with a wood bat against strong competition on the Cape last summer (.333/.463/.500, 23.9% K to 17.9% BB) when he saw more pitches and accepted more called strikes, and the Mets are likely buying that performance as evidence his prodigious power will play against pro pitching. Aloy split time between right field and DH, with fringy defensive tools that will limit his value in the field. He'll need to hit like the Kuhio Aloy of 2025, both in the SEC and on the Cape, but the Mets are high on his chances to do so. He's also young for the class and only turned 21 shortly after the draft.

14-420: LHP Zach Crotchfelt, Troy
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Zach Crotchfelt has long been a prominent prospect, and after a long winding road, he may be trending towards what he always had the talent to become. A local pick for the Mets, Crotchfelt grew up in Jackson, New Jersey, about fifty miles southwest of Citi Field, where he was a nationally known prospect at powerhouse Jackson Memorial High School intent on fulfilling his commitment to Auburn. He earned significant innings as a freshman swingman for the Tigers in 2023, but saw less action as a sophomore in 2024 and transferred to Texas Tech prior to the 2025 season. Things did not go well for him in Lubbock, where he struggled to a 9.17 ERA over thirteen appearances and fell off the national prospect radar. Transferring a second time to Troy, he had his best season yet where he finally looked like the premium prospect he had been back in high school, pitching the Trojans to a cinderella College World Series appearance. Crotchfelt sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with his fastball, playing up further with carry and crossfire action. He leans on it heavily, but hitters still have trouble squaring it up. The 6'3" lefty drops in a deep, two-plane curveball and a solid fading changeup to round out his arsenal, with both projecting to be roughly average pitches. His command has improved from below average to fringy, helping him project better against more disciplined pro bats as he can guide his fastball just a bit better to play in its strong zones. He is big and durable enough to project as a starter if he can take a step forward with his secondaries and perhaps another half step forward with his command, though he likely projects as a reliever that pitches primarily off his dominant fastball and sits more consistently in the mid 90's. A senior sign, he'll turn 23 in October.

16-480: RHP Gavin Guidry, Louisiana State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Gavin Guidry, like Zach Crotchfelt, was a top prospect out of the 2022 high school pitching ranks who wound up spending four years in college. Unlike Crotchfelt, a Jersey native who bounced from Alabama to Texas back to the Yellowhammer State, Guidry is a Louisiana native who stayed home at one school in the Pelican State for four years. Initially recruited as a two-way player, he immediately grabbed a prominent role in the LSU bullpen as a freshman where he ran a 3.77 ERA and struck out a third of his opponents. He dropped his ERA to 2.59 as a sophomore and pushed his strikeout rate to 34%, but his walk rate jumped to 17% and he went undrafted. After missing 2025 with a back injury, he was less effective in 2026 with a 6.39 ERA and a 30% strikeout rate over a career-high 43.2 innings. Guidry is a very good athlete and a strong mover on the mound, helping him reach back for low to mid 90's velocity touching 96 in short stints with ride to push past bats. He has a solid 12-6 curveball that creates a lot of empty swings over the top, as well as a tighter cutter to give him something a little more lateral. The Lake Charles native has long been a fan favorite in Baton Rouge with a penchant for coming through in clutch situations, with his bat-missing stuff profiling best in the bullpen going forward just as it did with LSU. While a career 11.7% walk rate is reason for concern, he is athletic enough that the Mets should be able to help tighten the command enough to work in pro ball, where he could be come a solid reliever in the near future. Guidry is very old for the class and hit pro ball already having turned 23.

Sunday, December 14, 2025

The top five unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2026

Last year was a loud class of returnees headlined by #81 overall pick (and #69 prospect) Ryan Prager. I thought we may begin to see more robust classes of undrafted/unsigned college picks at the time, though this year we returned to a shallower class as most top names put pen to paper and went pro. Out of the thirteen names I listed last year, only Cade Obermueller (2nd round, Phillies) and Colby Shelton (6th round, White Sox) improved their draft stock in 2025 and four went undrafted for a second year in a row. This year's crop will hope for better results and to follow Obermueller's lead.

For the second year in a row, a Texas A&M lefty headlines the list. While Prager's return didn't do much for the Aggies' season in 2025, they'll hope for better results with Shane Sdao in tow. All five names will be returning to or joining SEC teams as college athletics' concentration of talent in the conference grows stronger each year – Sdao and Tre Phelps return to A&M and Georgia, respectively, while Matt Scott, Trent Caraway, and Henry Ford have transferred to Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee from Stanford, Oregon State, and Virginia, respectively. While Sdao returns after surgery wiped out his 2025 season, three of the four other names return after significantly underperforming what had been first round projections entering the season. Only Sdao will be 22 on Opening Day as youth also played a factor on who decided not to go pro just yet.

Note that this list was compiled based on their ranking on my 2025 draft board (in parentheses) and does not account for fall performance.

1. LHP Shane Sdao, Texas A&M (my rank: #101)
Texas A&M fans feared for their season when Shane Sdao went down with Tommy John surgery a year ago, and as it turns out, the fears were completely founded as the team missed the playoffs. As a consolation prize, the Aggies will get him back for a mulligan in 2026 as they load up for another daunting SEC schedule. Sdao has spent two years as a swingman, improving greatly from his freshman 2023 (4.78 ERA, 23.2% K, 7.6% BB) to his sophomore 2024 (2.96 ERA, 28.4% K, 4.6% BB) seasons. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 97 in relief, but plays up with flat plane from a low slot. He has an above average slider that dives across the plate and has proven very effective in SEC play, while his changeup is coming along and looks to be average. Working from a three quarters slot, he gets good extension and hitters struggle to pick up his release point. In addition, the Houston-area product has above average command and consistently stays ahead in the count by pounding the strike zone, helping him pitch deeper into games than his slight 6'2" frame would typically allow. The command and three pitch mix gives hope that he could be a starter at least in college ball, though his big league future is likely in the bullpen with his skinny frame and lack of proven durability. Back healthy in 2026, he'll look to provide a veteran presence on a pitching staff that lost five arms to the draft in Justin Lamkin (CBB round, Royals), Myles Patton (7th round, Red Sox), Kaiden Wilson (9th round, Marlins), Ryan Prager (9th round, Guardians), and Luke Jackson (11th round, Rays). That works in detriment to his own draft stock, as he'll turn 23 just two months after the 2026 draft.

2. RHP Matt Scott, Stanford -> Georgia (my rank: #113)
Matt Scott is coming off a very disappointing season at Stanford in which he fell from a projected first round pick to more of a fourth to sixth round projection. Instead of returning to Palo Alto, he and Joey Volchko will make it three high profile righties transferring from Stanford to Georgia in as many years, following Brandt Pancer two years ago. Scott quickly broke into the rotation as a freshman at Stanford and never looked back, making 38 starts over three seasons (in addition to 13 relief appearances) and throwing nearly two hundred innings. His combination of size, stuff, and durability attracted first round projections to start the season, but he struggled to a 6.02 ERA and just a 23% strikeout rate as his stuff proved more hittable in ACC play. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 at peak with massive riding action from a sky-high release point, though he can come to rely to heavily on it at times. He has a tight slider that can vary in shape, looking above average at its best but flattening out at other times. His splitter has gotten great results in the past, but he has never come to trust it enough to prove it as a potential big league weapon just yet. The stuff lost some of its crispness in 2025 that led to the down year, but upon transferring to Georgia, he had a strong fall and is looking sharper than ever heading into 2026. Listed at 6'7", 245 pounds, he brings massive size that bodes well both for durability and deception. He repeats his delivery fairly well and pounds the strike zone aggressively, though his control has always been ahead of his command so he can get hit over the middle of the plate. If Scott can maintain the strides he's made with his stuff, he should be a reliable SEC starter for a Georgia team that lost ten pitchers to the draft. In fact, 85% of the Bulldogs' innings pitched from last year are gone, including their top nine pitchers by innings. Scott and Volchko, alongside former USC righty Caden Aoki, headline a really nice transfer class on the mound as they all come over from the West Coast. A step forward in command as well for Scott this year could also make him one of the better senior signs available in the 2026 class, one who could fast track to the majors.

3. 3B Trent Caraway, Oregon State -> Louisiana State (my rank: #115)
Trent Caraway has been in the public eye for several years now as a premium prospect, and to this point he remains a highly volatile one whose future is hard to pin down. A star at powerhouse JSerra High School in Southern California, he earned interest in the top 100 interest but ultimately matriculated to Oregon State as the #2 position player prospect to reach campus from the 2023 class. He was one of the oldest incoming freshmen in the country and turned 20 midway through his freshman season, where he got off to a red hot start in 2024 before he broke his finger. Returning healthy in his draft-eligible 2025, he underperformed for much of the season before catching fire in the Corvallis Regional, where he went 9-17 with five home runs in as many games against Saint Mary's, TCU, and Southern Cal. While he had some first round projections before the season, the slump had pushed him back several rounds and the strong regional wasn't enough to make up the difference, so teams did not meet his asking price and instead he'll transfer across the country to join Jay Johnson's squad in Baton Rouge. Caraway can hit, without a doubt. Very physical at 6'2", 205 pounds, he shows plus power to the pull side with the strong wrists and core to muscle balls out of the park. He has pretty solid bat to ball as well and a long track record of hitting dating back to his prep days, albeit at times against younger competition, though his approach has wavered. In Corvallis, he has been chase-happy and rarely forced pitchers into his wheelhouse, causing some of his power to play down and his strikeout rate to spike. Interestingly, sandwiched between his two years at Oregon State was a strong run against excellent competition in the Cape Cod League where he hit .276/.362/.449 with a lower strikeout rate than either of his years with the Beavers. Now in the SEC, he'll again face top competition and it remains to be seen whether his approach plays up as it did on the Cape or down as it did in Corvallis. Caraway's physicality gives way to below average athleticism at third base, where his heavy feet limit his range, but he makes up for it with a steady glove and a strong arm that should work in college ball. In pro ball, it may portend a move to first base or an outfield corner.

4. OF/1B Henry Ford, Virginia -> Tennessee (my rank: #116)
Henry Ford's monstrous two year run at UVA comes to an end as he transfers from Charlottesville to the state of Tennessee for his junior year of school for the second time. A Charlottesville native, he began his high school career locally at St. Anne's Belfield High School but transferred to the powerhouse Baylor School in Chattanooga for his last two years of high school. Returning home for college, picked up Freshman All-American honors in 2024 and continued his success in 2025, ultimately hitting .348/.414/.587 with 28 home runs in 111 games over two seasons. With head coach Brian O'Connor taking the reins at Mississippi State, Ford will head back to Tennessee for his junior year, this time as a collegiate (where he again lost his head coach as Tony Vitello joins the San Francisco Giants). Listed at 6'5", 220 pounds, there's no mistaking what Ford is looking to do in the box. Employing a pull-heavy approach that runs contrary to most Cavalier hitting prospects in the past, he has shown plus power to that side in the past but didn't tap it as much in 2025. The ball jumps off his bat to the opposite field as well, though it will often be on mishits as he looks to go to left. Ford shows above average bat to ball and strikes out much less than the typical 6'5" power hitter, but as a very aggressive hitter, it can almost work against him as he makes too much weak contact on early count pitches that other hitters might take or even swing through to get another shot to hit the ball harder. In Knoxville, he'll look to clean up the approach a little and focus more on doing damage in the zone, where he rarely misses. Going from pitcher-friendly Davenport Field in Charlottesville to hitter-friendly Lindsey Nelson Stadium in Knoxville certainly won't hurt either. Previously a first baseman, he elevated his profile a bit in 2025 by showing well at multiple outfield positions, though his below average speed may limit him to left field in the long run. Ford had been old for a college sophomore but still didn't turn 21 until after the draft, so he'll still be close to age appropriate for the 2026 class.

5. OF Tre Phelps, Georgia (my rank: #136)
In a year of a lot of turnover for the Georgia Bulldogs roster, Tre Phelps will be an unexpected familiar face to anchor the lineup. He burst onto the scene with a huge freshman season in 2024, where he joined Henry Ford on Freshman All-American lists by hitting .353/.441/.699 with a dozen home runs in 42 games. Like Matt Scott and Trent Caraway above him on this list, he played himself into the first round conversation entering the season, but also like his counterparts above, he couldn't quite match the success in 2025. In 2024, he showed plus bat to ball and ran a minuscule 9.3% strikeout rate while showing off above average power, but that regressed all around in 2025. Always a very aggressive hitter, his approach caught up to him in 2025 as his strikeout rate doubled to 18.9% and pitchers attacked his weaknesses, namely his propensity to chase. Phelps still has the big bat speed that helps him profile for 20+ home runs at the big league level, but he wasn't able to get to it as often in 2025 and made a lot more weak contact. Like the names above him on this list, he'll benefit from a more consistent plan at the plate rather than going up and just whacking at the ball. Returning to Athens should help in that regard and he won't turn 22 until tournament time, making him only a few months older than many of his 2026 draft counterparts. Defensively, Georgia has tried the Atlanta native at quite a few different spots but nothing has stood out to this point, with a likely future at first base or left field unless he improves his fringy athleticism. Phelps is extraordinarily talented and retains high upside if he can put it all together.