Showing posts with label Los Angeles Angels. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Los Angeles Angels. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 2, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

The Angels had a clear draft strategy if a bit unusual. First, they gave fringe-top ten prospect Tyler Bremner the second largest under slot deal of the draft at pick #2, then spread the more than $2.5 million in savings around to nothing less than a hoard of high school pitchers, headlined by third rounder Johnny Slawinski. In fact, LA not only drafted but signed nine preps in total. The focus for those prep pitchers was athleticism, with many multi-sport stars and projection plays among them. Beyond the preps, it was a pitching-focused draft for the Angels as a whole, taking seven arms with their first eight picks and ultimately handing nine of their ten largest bonuses to pitchers. This will be a very interesting draft to look back on in a decade – if Tyler Bremner succeeds as an impact starting pitcher, then it's highway robbery that the Angels could shell out additional millions to prep pitchers. If he doesn't, but more than a couple of these prep picks hit, then it works out too. But there is a lot of pressure on both Bremner and the group prep arms.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-2: RHP Tyler Bremner, UC Santa Barbara
Slot value: $10.25 million. Signing bonus: $7.69 million ($2.56 million below slot value).
My rank: #12. MLB Pipeline: #18. Baseball America: #11.
Tyler Bremner has seen his stock climb up and down on a roller coaster, culminating in one of the more surprising picks of this draft. A hot recruit out of Scripps Ranch High School in suburban San Diego, he made it to campus at UCSB and immediately jumped into a swingman role as a freshman. He took a huge step forward as a sophomore by going 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA, again as a swingman, and established himself as one of the top prospects in the 2025 draft class. Entering his junior year, Bremner and Florida State lefty Jamie Arnold (#11 pick, A's) were considered the top two college pitchers in the country, but Bremner pitched to more "good" than "great" results to start the season, falling towards the middle of the first round as roughly the fifth best college pitcher in the class. Through those first seven starts, he had a 4.24 ERA and just 37 strikeouts in 34 innings (26.2% K rate). However, he turned on the jets starting in April and over his final starts struck out 74 batters in 43.1 innings (43.8% K rate) with a 2.91 ERA, rocketing back closer to the top ten picks by July. Then, the Angels shocked the baseball world by taking him second overall, fully buying into his dynamite second half while taking a massive discount, paying him closer to the slot value of the #6 pick. So who is Tyler Bremner? He has a mid 90's fastball that touches 98 at peak, coming in with big riding life to shoot past bats at the top of the zone. He sharpened up his slider nicely during his time in Santa Barbara but it lacked consistency in 2025, fluctuating between a sweeper and a gyro look, and he didn't throw it as much as he did in 2024. The changeup is his bread and butter, coming in with massive off-the-table drop that hitters struggled mightily with. He could tell them that it's coming, and in fact he can drop his arm a little when he throws it sometimes, and they'll still never hit it. His low release point helps his pitches play up as well, though he doesn't get a ton of extension. The 6'2" righty has a loose, athletic delivery that he repeats well for above average command, pounding the strike zone consistently to pitch deep into games. With his build, delivery, and command, he is a high probability starting pitcher at the next level. What will determine his ultimate ceiling will be whether he can bring the slider along, as he currently projects as a #3 starter unless he can work it back into an above average or better pitch.

2-47: RHP Chase Shores, Louisiana State
Slot value: $2.08 million. Signing bonus: $2.08 million.
My rank: #57. MLB Pipeline: #77. Baseball America: #86.
In some ways, this pick is a little reminiscent of last year's second rounder, Chris Cortez, whom the Angels took 45th in 2025. Chase Shores, like Tyler Bremner, was a highly touted prep prospect who reached campus at LSU. He was electric as a freshman in 2023 and had some scouts pegging him as an early candidate to go first overall in 2025, but went down with Tommy John surgery after just seven appearances and missed the entire 2024 season as well. Returning healthy in 2025, he showed the same big stuff but struggled with command and consistency, losing his spot in the LSU rotation but keeping his stock from falling too far by pitching effectively out of the bullpen. Shores is a massive guy with massive arm strength. Listed at 6'8", 245 pounds, he strikes an imposing presence on the mound and backs it up by running his fastball as high as 102. It normally sits in the mid 90's as a starter and in the upper 90's as a reliever with run and sink that makes it difficult to square up. His slider remains inconsistent, but it flashes plus at its best hard, tight, two-plane snap. His changeup has also taken a step forward in Baton Rouge with nice fade off that running fastball, giving him a deadly three pitch mix when he has everything going right. The command, though, has been fringy at best and he has days where he simply can't get ahead in the count, though he didn't walk any batters over his final five appearances spanning 8.1 innings. Shores holds his velocity deep into starts and has more than enough of what it takes to start, but he'll have to get more consistent with both his secondary stuff and his command in order to get there. If it does all click and he stays healthy, the West Texas native has even more upside than Tyler Bremner, but carries a lot more risk.

3-79: LHP Johnny Slawinski, Johnson City HS [TX]
Slot value: $1.03 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($1.47 million above slot value).
My rank: #61. MLB Pipeline: #68. Baseball America: #78.
Using a massive chunk of their savings from Tyler Bremner, the Angels grabbed high school lefty Johnny Slawinski for more than double his slot value, giving him a bonus roughly in line with the #39 pick here at pick #79 to pull him away from a Texas A&M commitment. While his stuff isn't quite as loud as some of the other names on this list yet, he is as projectable as they come with the ceiling of a frontline starter. The fastball sits low 90's and touches 95 at peak, playing up a bit with riding action. He is still working to tighten up his slider, which can get loopy, but his best ones have late dive that make it look like an above average breaker. He can work it into a truer 12-6 curveball that gets average grades, while his changeup has taken a step forward with nice fade. The 6'3" lefty is a superb athlete that has also excelled on the hardwood, the gridiron, and the track, which translates to a smooth, athletic delivery and nice extension down the mound. He has a ton of projection remaining and could add several ticks of velocity to his fastball while adding power to his whole arsenal, power that will be especially usable given his athleticism. Slawinski also does a great job of staying around the zone, so ultimately we are looking at a four pitch lefty with the athleticism, command, and durability to make it as an impact starter if he reaches his peak. There is a ways to go in that regard but he is already more advanced than the typical small town arm (he grew up in Hill Country about forty miles west of Austin) and has a pretty straightforward, if long, development path. The Angels hefty investment indicates a high degree of confidence he will make those strides and become at least a #2 or #3 starter.

3C-105: RHP Nate Snead, Tennessee
Slot value: $729,600. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($132,100 below slot value).
My rank: #155. MLB Pipeline: #148. Baseball America: #84.
Continuing a run on pitchers, the Angels went chasing velocity again with an under slot signing here as compensation for failing to sign 2024 #81 overall pick Ryan Prager (now with the Guardians). Nate Snead started off at Wichita State, where he immediately became one of the Shockers' most reliable relievers as a freshman, then transferred to Tennessee after one season. He has fulfilled the same role in Knoxville and now will do the same for Los Angeles. Snead throws hard, sitting in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and touching 101 at peak, though its hard running and sinking action creates more ground balls than it misses bats. By taking just a little bit off, he can throw a hard mid 90's cutter that has proven very effective when located, or he can turn it over further into a true slider in the mid 80's. He offers a hard, short curveball as a change of pace offering and used it more often in 2025 when he didn't feel he could trust his slider, while his firm changeup gives him a fifth pitch but hasn't proven very effective yet. With long arm action and a low three quarters delivery, the 6'2" righty is able to pound the zone effectively but his control is far ahead of his command, meaning his misses are often over the heart of the plate. With that fastball being his only consistent offering, hitters can sit on it and he hasn't missed nearly as many bats as you would hope from a pitcher who throws as hard as he does. In fact, in two years in Knoxville, he has never run a strikeout rate above 19% (for reference, Tyler Bremner grabbed 35.8% in 2025 and Chase Shores got 24.6%). The Angels will need to help Snead bring his offspeed stuff along, perhaps by tightening up the arsenal and focusing on a couple of secondaries, if he wants to be successful missing pro bats. The arm talent is certainly there and you really can't teach 101. The Milwaukee-area native projects as a reliever unless the secondaries come along in a big way and he tightens his command.

4-109: 3B Jake Munroe, Louisville
Slot value: $701,300. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($103,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #256.
For their first position player, the Angels took a slight discount on Jake Munroe with hopes he can work quickly through the minors and make an impact on their big league lineup. He spent two years at John A. Logan JC in Illinois, then transferred to Louisville where he just kept on hitting. Munroe uses a tight, lightning quick right handed swing to ambush fastballs and breaking balls alike, showing no growing pains jumping from Midwest JuCo pitching to the ACC and hitting .299/.437/.523 in conference play, impressively walking more (16.1%) than he struck out (13.9%) against some of the best pitching he'd ever seen. To that point, he also dominated the Northwoods League, probably the second best summer league out there behind the Cape Cod League, to the tune of a .313/.411/.615 line last summer. He shows fringe-average pop with the ability to turn on and crank balls on the inner half of the plate, playing more as a line drive bat the other way. It's a pretty balanced overall offensive profile that could project for 15 home runs and solid on-base percentages annually. A third baseman for now, Munroe will need to work hard to remain at the hot corner with fringy athleticism and below average speed. If he has to slide to first base, there will be pressure on his right handed bat to continue to grow into more power, though his 6'2", 230 pound frame looks about as filled out as it's going to get. Munroe's track record of hitting everywhere he has gone is extremely impressive and the Angels are banking on that upward trend continuing as he ascends through the pro ranks.

5-140: RHP CJ Gray, Brown HS [NC]
Slot value: $519,100. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($730,900 above slot value).
My rank: #132. MLB Pipeline: #178. Baseball America: #118.
Dipping again into the massive chunk of change they saved on Tyler Bremner, the Angels were able to hand CJ Gray a large over slot bonus worth close to the value of the #69 pick here at #140, turning him away from an NC State commitment. Gray has a live arm with tons of untapped potential, but he'll need significant development to get there. The fastball sits low to mid 90's and touches 97 with explosive running life, and there should be even more in the tank as he continues to tack on strength. He is still searching for the identity of his slider, showing inconsistent shape that fluctuates from fringy to above average, while his release is actually very conducive to a changeup and he has much better feel in that regard than you'd expect from a multi-sport star. Accordingly, the 6'2" righty is an excellent athlete that starred as A.L. Brown High School's quarterback and earned Division I interest for his skills on the gridiron. While the split focus makes him a bit raw on the mound, that athleticism gives him massive upside and you can see it in the way he moves on the mound. He's explosive, lean, strong, and only getting better. To this point, his delivery remains raw as well, as he struggles to repeat his release point and presently has erratic command. Los Angeles will look to bring him along slowly, hoping that the singular focus on baseball along with standard growth and maturation in the pro system will help him tap into his high potential. Like I said with Nate Snead – you can teach command, you can get secondary stuff more consistent, but you can't teach athleticism and arm talent like Gray has. He could become anything from an impact starting pitcher to a hard throwing reliever.

6-169: RHP Luke LaCourse: Bay City Western HS [MI]
Slot value: $393,700. Signing bonus: $512,500 ($118,800 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #213.
Continuing to spend through that bonus pool, Los Angeles went about a round above slot value to sign Luke LaCourse away from a Michigan State commitment. A multi sport star like the other prep arms in this Angels class, LaCourse has the added factor of being a cold weather arm from Central Michigan with presumably far fewer miles on his arm. The fastball velocity is modest, low 90's and touching 94 on his best days but sitting upper 80's on others albeit with big spin rates. His slider is his best pitch, coming in with wicked sweep across the plate and elite spin rates pushing far above the 3,000 RPM threshold. His changeup is a third pitch that will need significant refinement. The 6'3" righty brings present physicality and projection, which combined with athleticism and a cold weather background should help him add significant velocity in the future. LaCourse has tight arm action that helps him really coil on the baseball, especially on his breaking ball, and generate high spin rates across his arsenal. The command needs fine tuning but looks playable on the right day, and regardless the Angels are highly confident they can get him where he needs to be. If LaCourse can stay healthy, add some velocity, and bring his changeup along, he has mid rotation upside albeit with high risk.

12-349: LHP Talon Haley, Lewisburg HS [MS]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $897,500 ($747,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: #111. MLB Pipeline: #91. Baseball America: #89.
Taking yet another chunk from their copious bonus pool savings, the Angels spent third round money (roughly the value of pick #88) to pull Talon Haley away from a Vanderbilt commitment. Haley has taken a winding road to reach where he is, to say the least. Namely, he survived lymphoma and two Tommy John surgeries all while in high school, then went out and put up a big senior season at Lewisburg High School outside of Memphis. His fastball has average velocity in the low 90's, but he can run it up to 97 in short stints when he reaches back. As he gets farther from the surgeries and the cancer, he should push closer to that peak velocity for longer stints. He gets nice two-plane action on his above average curveball, which already looks like a big league breaking ball, and can turn it over into a solid slider as well. While his changeup may be his fourth best pitch, it too is solid and rounds out a very advanced arsenal. Haley is already very physical, which combined with his simple delivery and deep arsenal, gives him a great chance to remain a starter in pro ball. He repeats his delivery well and pounds the strike zone, and ultimately looks exactly how you'd draw it up for a workhorse starting pitcher. He may not have the ace upside of the other prep arms in this class, but he's a safer bet than all of them and should move the quickest through the minors. He is a year older than most high schoolers and will be 20 years old ahead of his first spring training in 2026, which is understandable.

13-379: LHP Xavier Mitchell, Prestonwood Christian HS [TX]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $872,500 ($722,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: #161. MLB Pipeline: #168. Baseball America: #114.
Another lefty, Xavier Mitchell is otherwise very different from Talon Haley but signed for similar third round money. His modest fastball currently sits in the low 90's and touches 93 with lots of running life, but more is certainly on the way. His curveball is inconsistent to this point but flashes above average with downward bite, but it can soften up at times. He rounds things out with a nice changeup, giving him three big league pitches to start things out. Mitchell stands out most for his projection as a 6'3" string bean with room to add upwards of fifty pounds of good weight, which could add more than a few ticks of velocity in the coming years. You can never bet on a guy adding 5+ miles per hour, but if anybody can, Mitchell is in great position to do it. He already moves very well on the mound with a loose, athletic delivery that will be conducive to putting the incoming strength to work, and as a lefty, he has a lot going for him if the Angels can pull it out of him. It will take a long time to develop, much like the other non-Haley prep arms in this class, but the reward may well be worth it. The Dallas-area product is old for the class, having turned 19 the day before he was drafted. He had previously been committed to Texas.

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

The Angels had a very interesting draft. They surprised many by drafting the slugging Christian Moore with their first pick, then signing him to a massive under slot deal. After continuing to save in the second round, they had nearly $2 million to play with against the bonus pool two picks in and spread it around to a trio of high upside arms. Speaking of arms, they were the theme of the draft here behind Moore, as the Angels would draft seven straight pitchers from that point and 15/20 overall (excluding Moore). They failed to sign third rounder Ryan Prager, which was a surprise, and that only furthered a theme of power arms throughout the draft. Numerous pitchers in this class have touched triple digits while a whopping eleven draftees stand 6'4" or taller. Five stand 6'6" or taller and they're headlined by the 6'11" Peyton Olejnik and 6'9" Will Gervase.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-8: 2B Christian Moore, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $6.5 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($1.5 million below slot value).
My rank: #14. MLB Pipeline: #13. Baseball America: #12.
This was probably the first true surprise pick of the draft, but that is no slight against Christian Moore, who saved the Angels a massive $1.5 million by signing between the slot values of the #14 and #15 picks here at #8. Moore showed well as a part-time playing freshman in 2022 and repeated his success with a strong sophomore season in 2023. Then came 2024, which was a different animal. Offense was off the charts this year as every game felt like it was being played at Coors Field, and Moore was front and center. While leading Tennessee to a National Championship, he blasted 34 home runs and 55 extra base hits overall in 72 games, good for the third highest home run total in all of college baseball this year and tied with Troy Glaus (UCLA) for the ninth highest in college baseball history. Not only did Moore go on a power barrage this year, he was actually better against SEC pitching than against his non-conference schedule, slashing a bonkers .429/.461/.925 with 20 home runs in 30 games against pitching from the best conference in college baseball. Unsurprisingly, Moore has an explosive right handed swing that produces routinely produces elite exit velocities, making the ball jump off his bat like few in college baseball. His big, uppercut hacks make the most of that explosive bat speed and he clearly had zero issue tapping his power in games, especially not against top-flight SEC pitching. The hit tool, meanwhile is more average. He ran average chase rates and average contact rates, which isn't quite what you want to see in the top ten of the draft, but the fact that he was so good in SEC play assuages some of those swing and miss concerns. His barrel is plenty accurate so when he hits it, he's hitting it hard and doing enough damage to keep his batting averages up alongside his slugging percentages. The Brooklyn native has seen time at shortstop but he likely plays second base long term, where his average speed and arm fit better. If he makes enough contact, Moore figures to be a bat-first second baseman in the mold of Dan Uggla. If you can save $1.5 million and still get that kind of bat, it's commendable move in the first round. The Angels pushed Moore aggressively and he responded without missing a beat, slashing .347/.400/.584 with six home runs and a 29/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games mostly spent at AA Rocket City, giving him 40 total home runs on the season.

2-45: RHP Chris Cortez, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $2.07 million. Signing bonus: $1.6 million ($475,300 below slot value).
My rank: #60. MLB Pipeline: #85. Baseball America: #90.
Chris Cortez has one of the most electric arms in recent college baseball memory, and that's no exaggeration. He has struggled to harness it in the past and in 2023 posted an ugly 7.34 ERA as he walked 18.7% of his opponents, but he righted the ship in a big way in 2024 as he cut the walk rate down to 13.3% and his ERA by more than half. The fastball sits consistently in the upper 90's and has reached 101 with turbo sinker action, running over seventeen inches to the arm side while boring down towards the earth at frightening speed. If you want to lift that pitch, you have to time and square it up absolutely perfectly, so good luck. Cortez adds a power slider in the upper 80's with nasty late bite, fooling hitters time and again with hard sweep. For now, it's just those two pitches. The command was previously well below average but improved to simply below average in 2024, though of course it's still not quite where it needs to be. The 6'1" righty often appears nothing short of untouchable as he blows hitters away with the sinker/slider combo, but just as quickly as he arrived, his command can vanish and he'll get himself in trouble. The command woes combined with the lack of a third pitch (or anything under 86-87 for that matter) do likely point to a career in the bullpen, where he won't need to hold that command together for more than a few batters. This is a really exciting arm for the Angels, one that could move quickly and join fellow fireballer Ben Joyce in Anaheim sooner rather than later if the Angels resist the urge to make him a starter. Additionally, the Las Vegas native signed for almost half a million below slot value, close to the value of the #56 pick and bringing Los Angeles close to $2 million in the black heading into their third pick. They started to spend it on:

2C-74: RHP Ryan Johnson, Dallas Baptist {video}
Slot value: $1.06 million. Signing bonus: $1.75 million ($687,200 above slot value).
My rank: #36. MLB Pipeline: #47. Baseball America: #46.
Ryan Johnson was Los Angeles' first big over slot buy, in fact signing for more than second rounder Chris Cortez, roughly the slot value for pick #52. Johnson was a well-known prep in the 2021 class but made it to campus at Dallas Baptist, where he turned in two strong seasons before breaking out for a massive 2024. Like Cortez, he is a fascinating arm, but in a very different way. Johnson is a gangly, 6'6" string bean that is all arms and legs, with some projection remaining though at 22 years old now, he probably is what he is. He uses a very unconventional delivery, eschewing a leg lift and instead breaking for the plate straight from his initial windup step in almost a buckling manner. That gives way to a low arm slot that creates a release height nearly a foot lower than his listed height, something you don't see often. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 as a starter, and he's even hit triple digits in shorter stints. Despite the big velocity, it gets hit harder than it should with fairly ordinary running and sinking life. Finding a better fastball shape or at least shifting its usage will be one of the first things the Angels should look at. His best pitch is a plus slider that he throws roughly half the time, showing deep, late sweep that confounds hitters left and right. He splits the difference a bit with an average cutter, which gets better results than his fastball, while his changeup is more fringy. While the funky delivery would lead you to see Johnson as a reliever, he actually has plus command and walked just 3.3% of his opponents before, making for a downright elite 10.8:1 strikeout to walk ratio (151/14). It's a really, really intriguing profile that will let the Angels get really creative with his development. His feel for his slider is a real separator, both in terms of its movement and the way he executes/commands it, and the raw arm strength gives his fastball more upside if he can tweak it a little bit. I see Johnson as a potential mid rotation starter if he's developed right and I hope the Angels can bring that out of him.

3-81: LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $948,600. Signing bonus: did not sign.
My rank: #69. MLB Pipeline: #61. Baseball America: #66.
In a surprise to most, Ryan Prager declined to sign with the Angels and will instead head back to Texas A&M for his senior season, making him the third highest drafted player and the highest drafted college player to do so. Making this even more of a surprise is the fact that Jim Schlossnagle, for whom he played his entire career in College Station (though he initially committed to the Aggies under previous head coach Rob Childress). After spending his freshman season in the rotation, he lost his sophomore season to Tommy John surgery then returned with a vengeance in 2024 as one of the top pitchers in the SEC and therefore the nation. While Ryan Johnson and Prager's teammate Chris Cortez have both reached triple digits, Prager is much more of an old school starting pitcher. His fastball parks around 90 and tops out at 94, showing massive riding life negated a bit by an ultra high, over the top release point. The pitch shows some cutting action, too, and it got great results in 2024. His slider gets late drop and performed admirably, looking like an above average breaker, while his straight changeup gives him a third at least average pitch. Everything plays up for Prager because he works effectively in the zone with plus command and high pitching IQ, mixing and matching his stuff effectively to keep hitters off it. The 6'3" lefty also brings some deception in his delivery with a deep arm plunge that helps hide the ball from view, rocking back over into his over the top delivery. While he won't be joining the Angels, he will smooth the transition from Schlossnagle to Michael Earley as one of the best pitchers in all of college baseball.

4-110: RHP Austin Gordon, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $662,900. Signing bonus: $572,500 ($90,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #363.
Austin Gordon has moved between roles as needed at Clemson, spending his freshman year in the bullpen, moving to the rotation as a sophomore, and spending his junior season doing a little bit of both to decent results. This is a stuff-first arm with some upside. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with big riding life, making for a plus pitch that he leans heavily on. Gordon also shows strong feel to spin two distinct breaking balls, with a sharp, tight slider in the mid 80's and a loopier, true 12-6 curve a few ticks slower. The slider is his primary breaker and projects as the better pitch in pro ball, but he does get good results with both. He doesn't use his changeup much, especially in relief. After showing solid command as a starter in 2023, he regressed in that regard as his walk rate jumped from 6.3% to 10.5%. He's generally around the zone but can't always execute his pitches where he needs them, leading to him getting hit just a bit harder than his pure stuff says he should. Should the Angels choose to develop the Myrtle Beach native as a starter, they'll certainly want to bring the changeup along as well as refine his in-zone execution just a bit more, with his athleticism and arm strength giving him plenty of upside in that regard. If he remains a reliever, he can work heavily off the fastball/slider combination and retain the power on his stuff without worrying so much about command. At 6'5" and relatively young for the class (turned 21 a month before the draft), there's a good chance he continues to improve.

5-143: RHP Dylan Jordan, Viera HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $480,800. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($766,700 above slot value).
My rank: #119. MLB Pipeline: #243. Baseball America: #170.
The Angels unloaded their second largest over slot bonus here, buying Dylan Jordan away from a Florida State commitment for roughly the slot value of the #66 pick, much more than he was projected to earn. While he didn't get as much love from national outlets, but he was a local favorite from scouts in the Sunshine State and was paid accordingly. The fastball sits in the low 90's and tops out around 95, and he works the shape between more of a running and sinking pitch and one with more riding action. The slider can steal the show at its best, coming in with big sweeping action when he rips it right. For now, the changeup isn't used much in games. Jordan is a sidearmer with an ultra low release point that adds a unique dimension to his stuff, and hitters will tell you that 95 from the side is not the same as 95 from over the top. The 6'3" righty is also a very good athlete that treats his arm like a sling, whipping the ball in there with long arm action that helps reduce stress. The command is below average for now and the Angels will want to clean that up, but between the athleticism and nasty east-west profile from a sidearmer, there's a lot to play with and Jordan comes with plenty of upside. The Angels are clearly buying in in a big way by giving him day one money.

6-172: RHP Peyton Olejnik, Miami [OH] {video}
Slot value: $366,100. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($168,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Sometimes you just have to sit back in awe of a pitcher, and that's Peyton Olejnik. He's bounced around, beginning his career Triton JC in the Chicago area (alma mater of Kirby Puckett) in 2022 before transferring to Oklahoma in 2023. He barely pitched for the Sooners, so he transferred once mor eto Miami of Ohio and found his way into a swingman role for the Redhawks. The elephant in the room, or more aptly the giraffe in the room, is Olejnik himself – he stands 6'11", which would tie him with Giants righty Sean Hjelle and former reliever Jon Rauch as the tallest pitcher in major league history. The fastball sits low 90's and touches 95 with average life, but of course it plays up because he gets a ridiculous nearly seven feet of extension from a low three quarters slot. The Little League mound sits at 45 feet, so that means with his release point 53 feet from home plate, he's getting halfway from the big league mound to a little league mound. Halfway! He shows a nice sweeping slider as well that misses bats at a solid clip, giving him a second at least average pitch, while his changeup gives him a third usable pitch. Olejnik showed solid command in 2024 and has really grown into his body – he was still growing when he reached Triton as a freshman, listed at 6'9" at the time. The stuff isn't all that loud so he'll have a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter if the command holds, with a fallback option as a reliever whose stuff could tick up. If he starts throwing 93-96 in short stints instead of 91-94 in longer outings, that would be frankly terrifying given his size. The Indiana native already got his feet wet, allowing two runs over 6.1 innings while striking out eleven in four abbreviated starts for Low A Inland Empire. 

11-322: RHP Trey Gregory-Alford, Coronado HS [CO] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $1.96 million ($1.81 million against bonus pool).
My rank: #99. MLB Pipeline: #105. Baseball America: #98.
They didn't do it last year, but the Angels have made a habit lately of handing massive bonuses to high school pitchers early on day three. In 2022, it was Caden Dana ($1.5 million), now in the rotation, and in 2021 it was Mason Albright ($1.25 million), who was sent to Colorado in the Randal Grichuk trade. In 2024, that man is Trey Gregory-Alford, who brought in nearly $2 million as the Angels' second highest paid draftee this year. That bonus, which kept him away from a UVA commitment, was between the slot values for the #47 and #48 picks here at #322. It's a bit of a theme in this class, but Gregory-Alford has arm strength in spades and then in more spades. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touches 98 in games, and has reached 101 in side bullpens with running life. Beyond that, he rips off a hard, above average slider with late bite which plays very well off his power fastball, giving him the potential for two plus pitches. The changeup is behind at this point, but that's not unexpected for a power high school pitcher from Colorado Springs. He is a big, physical pitcher at a listed 6'5", 235 pounds already, looking like he could go head to head with anybody in the organization despite being just 18 years old. TGA uses a high three quarters delivery and does throw with some effort, which can impact his command though he's generally around the strike zone. As he acclimates to his high octane stuff, the command should come along has a chance to be average in time. There's plenty of reliever risk as the current profile fits that role precisely, so the Angels will look to smooth him out and bring the changeup along. Even if he has to sit more 92-95 than 94-97, he should still be a very effective starter granted that little pullback helps him throw more strikes. He reminds me a bit of Chase Burns in high school, and Burns of course went on to become arguably the best pitcher in college baseball and go #2 overall to the Reds this year.

12-352: RHP Fran Oschell III, Duke {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #204. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #225.
You guessed it, arm strength again. Fran Oschell did not take a straight path to get here, and he represents a bit of a post-hype prospect the Angels will look to reclaim. After barely pitching as a freshman, he broke out for a massive sophomore season in which he posted a 0.69 ERA (!) and held opponents to just a .133 batting average (!!) while striking out 41.5% of his opponents (!!!) out of the bullpen. That gave him a chance to pitch his way into day one of the draft this spring, but unfortunately everything went in the wrong direction. The ERA ballooned to 6.94, his strikeout rate dropped to 18.2%, and his walk rate jumped from 11.3% to 23.1%. So what's the deal? Oschell is a massive righty at a listed 6'7", 230 pounds, with arm strength to match. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has hit 99 in the past, coming in with explosive riding life that ticked back a little in 2024. In 2023, it was one of the best fastballs in all of college baseball and just chewed up ACC hitters, but this year he wasn't able to entice as many hitters to chase it up and out of the zone as he fell behind in counts. He throws a pair of power breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, but both stand out more for velocity than movement and lack the true finish to be plus pitches, instead looking above average at best. Oschell's command completely fell apart in 2024 and he just rarely set himself up for success as he consistently fell behind in the count. The Angels saw the outright dominance he showed in 2023 when his command was just fringy, i.e. reasonably-not-that-bad, buoyed by that plus-plus fastball at its best. He's almost certainly a reliever and he'll look to get back on track with a change of scenery.

18-532: SS David Mershon, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $255,000 ($105,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This is a fun profile in the eighteenth round, even if it's more about performance than underlying metrics. David Mershon spent two years at Mississippi State and was a major sparkplug for the Bulldogs this past season, where he hit .347, stole 27 bases, and walked (14.9%) more than he struck out (13.8%). Draft eligible after he turned 21 in May, making him closer to the age of a college junior, he brings an old school profile to the table. Mershon is just 5'8", 175 pounds, using a slappy, line drive swing to spray the ball around the field. That contact-oriented approach combined with hitterish, big league at bats helps him keep his strikeouts down and his on-base percentages up. There is virtually no power to speak of, as he rarely turns on or lifts the ball and doesn't have the raw juice to send the ball very far if he did. He did hit six home runs in 58 games in 2024, but that's likely a product of the metal bats and offense-happy environment and he likely won't approach double digit home run totals at the major league level. Instead, he'll use his contact ability, speed, and high energy style of play to make things happen at the plate and on the bases. His speed and scrappy style of play serve him well on the infield, where he can get to most any ball hit his way, though he's not very physical and a lack of arm strength will relegate him to second base. The South Carolina native projects as a high average utility infield type who will be very fun to watch on both sides of the ball. He's an easy guy to root for and is already knocking on the door to Los Angeles, having slashed .254/.326/.298 with a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at AA Rocket City, an aggressive assignment for a just-drafted sophomore.

Sunday, September 3, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

The big story here, of course, is the fact that first round pick Nolan Schanuel reached the majors within just six weeks of being drafted, becoming the fastest position player to the majors since Brian Milner way back in 1978. But there's more to this class than just Schanuel, even if they forfeited their second round pick after signing Tyler Anderson. They searched for complete offensive profiles rather than individual outlier traits (though Schanuel's performance and plate discipline fit the outlier mold), also focusing on bats over defense. They went pitching heavy later in the draft, including for eighth rounder Barrett Kent who marked their second highest bonus of the class at nearly five times his slot value.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-11: 1B Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic {video}
Slot value: $5.25 million. Signing bonus: $5.25 million.
My rank: #25. MLB Pipeline: #26. Baseball America: #30. Prospects Live: #33.
I've been doing draft reviews for five years now, and Nolan Schanuel is the first player ever to reach the majors before I even had a chance to write his draft review. I don't care how aggressive the Angels are with their promotions, that's incredible. But let's pull the clock back a little and pretend he just got drafted, because he did. Schanuel was excellent as a freshman at FAU (.343/.444/.576) and elite as a sophomore (.369/.477/.658), but nothing could have prepared us for the unbelievable season he put up as a junior this spring: 19 home runs, .447/.615/.868, 14 stolen bases, 14/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games. Sure, FAU doesn't play in a traditional power conference, but if you're going to bat .447, get on base in three of every five plate appearances, and walk five times as often as you strike out, you'll make jaws drop. Schanuel does it with an elite approach at the plate that held strong in the Cape Cod League as well, rarely chasing and posting elite contact rates. He sets up with his hands held high before dropping them back to set up a loose, whippy left handed swing. His exit velocities point to above average raw power, though he didn't tap it much with wood bats on the Cape and that's a long term question for the South Florida native. He likely profiles as a high on-base, moderate power bat that can hit in the upper half of a big league lineup for a long time. It's that elite plate discipline that carried him to the majors so quickly, but it's the power development that will make him stay and play a major role. Schanuel is a fringy runner that will be limited to first base or a corner outfield spot, which will put pressure on his bat and especially the power, but he should be up to the task. He flew through the minors, slashing .365/.505/.486 with one home run and a 10/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games across three levels, and now is hitting .273/.429/.295 with more walks (10) than strikeouts (6) in 12 games for the Angels.

3-79: C Alberto Rios, Stanford {video}
Slot value: $901,500. Signing bonus: $847,500 ($54,000 below slot value).
My rank: #125. MLB Pipeline: #113. Baseball America: #155. Prospects Live: #131.
There's coming out of nowhere, then there's Alberto Rios. He played just eight games total in his first two seasons at Stanford, all as a pinch hitter, and went 0-7 with a pair of strikeouts and a walk. Heading into 2023, he was about the farthest thing on Stanford's roster from a prospect, but that all changed after a monstrous junior season in which he slashed .384/.485/.707 with 18 home runs and a 42/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. A native of Bellflower and a product of local St. John Bosco High School about halfway between Angel Stadium and Dodger Stadium, his 2023 got even sweeter when he was drafted by his hometown Angels. Rios has a strong, compact frame that helps him naturally produce above average power from a quick right handed swing, power which he tapped consistently in games this past spring. It's nothing explosive, but his feel for the barrel should enable him to hit 20 home runs or more per season at peak. He's also a disciplined, professional hitter that makes a lot of contact and limits his strikeouts, making for a pretty complete offensive profile. There are more question marks about his defense. Drafted as a catcher, he doesn't have a ton of high level experience there but could be up to the task with solid glovework and a decent arm. If he can stick behind the plate, the bat suddenly looks very potent and it could lead to an every day role. If he's forced back to left field, where he saw most of his time with Stanford, his fringy speed will make him a below average defender and put a lot more pressure on that bat. The Angels are buying into all of it by selecting him higher than most expected, loving the direction his game is trending, his balanced offensive profile, and potentially even his ability to catch. We're still waiting for his bat to get going in pro ball, as he's slashing just .174/.271/.306 with three home runs and a 32/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Inland Empire.

4-111: OF Joe Redfield, Sam Houston State {video}
Slot value: $603,600. Signing bonus: $472,500 ($131,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #264.
Joe Redfield is a bit of an off the radar pick for the fourth round, as most scouts viewed him as more of a late day two/day three type, but his dynamic skill set makes him a fun profile for the Angels to work with here in the fourth round. He began his career at Temple JC in Central Texas, then transferred to Sam Houston State and posted a huge junior season, slashing .398/.474/.672 with 14 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 37/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. Setting up from a wide stance, Redfield has a linear swing and likes to lash line drives around the field with his extremely accurate barrel. After combining for five home runs out of 27 total extra base hits over his two years and 88 games at Temple, he began turning on the ball more often at Sam Houston State and crushed 14 home runs out of 36 extra base hits in just 59 games this past spring. Wiry at 6'2", he could potentially tack on additional strength as he fills out, though his game and swing are more geared towards a hit over power profile. The Waco native is a plus runner as well, which augments his offensive profile nicely, and could help him stick in center field long term. If he can learn to tap more power, it could be an every day profile, though it's more likely a fourth outfield profile long term that can provide impact in a lot of ways. So far, he's slashing .300/.400/.567 with one home run and a 1/3 strikeout to walk ratio through eight games between the Arizona Complex League and High A Tri-City.

5-147: RHP Chris Clark, Harvard {video}
Slot value: $425,100. Signing bonus: $318,825 ($106,275 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #471. Prospects Live: unranked.
This is another surprise pick of a player who many thought would last until day three. Chris Clark coming off an up and down junior season in which he posted a 4.93 ERA and a 93/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.2 innings, though he comes in with interesting upside. He's a great athlete with plenty of arm strength, getting down the mound well with an elastic delivery and some projection in his 6'4" frame. He sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 at best, though the fastball can get fairly straight. His slider is inconsistent and shows varying shape, while he could stand to gain a little more feel for his changeup, so the Angels will want to work with him there. A recently added cutter is paying dividends and at this point is his most consistent offspeed pitch. Clark's command is also inconsistent, though his athleticism could help him throw more strikes as he continues to develop. Together, it makes for a profile that can be difficult to project. One one hand, the arm strength and athleticism are hard to teach, while on the other hand, his offspeeds and command could develop in any number of directions. The Philadelphia-area native could be a starter or a reliever for that reason, depending on, well, everything. So far, he has a 6.00 ERA and a 17/4 strikeout to walk ratio through 15 innings at Low A Inland Empire.

6-174: RHP Camden Minacci, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $331,000. Signing bonus: $328,500 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #138. MLB Pipeline: #160. Baseball America: #137. Prospects Live: #145.
This is your classic high energy college reliever profile. It was easy to get buried on Wake Forest's deep pitching staff, but he carved out a role as the team's closer and posted a 2.78 ERA and a 46/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.1 innings. He's a high octane guy, sitting in the mid 90's and touching as high as 99 with life that can be very tough to catch up to. His power slider looks like a true plus pitch with late bite, and together with his fastball it's a deadly two pitch mix. At this point, it looks like a pure reliever profile due to a lack of a changeup as well as the fact that he never threw more than two innings in any appearance in 2023, though the Angels could run him out as a starter if they really wanted to get creative. That would require developing a changeup for him as well as building up his stamina, but Minacci does have a strong 6'3" frame and has shown solid command in his short stints. Should he remain in the bullpen, his high energy, competitive demeanor will fit right in and he should move quickly. He's been hittable so far, with a 5.40 ERA and a 10/1 strikeout to walk ratio through 8.1 innings at Low A Inland Empire.

7-204: 3B Cole Fontenelle, Texas Christian {video}
Slot value: $258,900. Signing bonus: $256,400 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #298.
Cole Fontenelle began his career at Washington, but didn't play much and transferred to JuCo powerhouse McLennan for his sophomore season, where he competed against Joe Redfield on the Texas JuCo circuit. A huge performance landed him at TCU, where he continued to rake to the tune of 14 home runs, a .352/.473/.639 slash line, and a 50/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. Standing 6'3", he's a big guy with above average power that plays effectively to all fields. He's a switch hitter that can tap his power from both sides of the plate, really coming into his own late in the season and pushing himself up draft boards. Fontenelle works a lot of deep counts and draws a lot of walks, though he can get himself into trouble there because he's a fringy pure hitter and doesn't have the quickest bat. For what it's worth, he does show a pretty adjustable barrel and can get to balls all over the zone, but we'll see how that plays against more advanced pitching. Defensively, his average speed limits his upside, but he has shown well at a few positions and has a chance to stick at third base with a little more refinement, so long as he doesn't slow down with age. That would help get the bat into the lineup more often in the big leagues, as he might not carry quite enough impact to cut it as a first base/left field type. So far, he's slashing .241/.327/.368 with three home runs and a 36/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Inland Empire.

8-234: RHP Barrett Kent, Pottsboro HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $206,500. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($791,000 above slot value).
My rank: #115. MLB Pipeline: #126. Baseball America: #104. Prospects Live: #75.
As it turns out, the second largest bonus the Angels handed out this year went to their eighth round pick, similar to what they did with 2022 eleventh rounder Caden Dana and 2021 twelfth rounder Mason Albright, both also high school pitchers. Barrett Kent signed for nearly a million dollars here in the eighth round, early third round money, to steer away from an Arkansas commitment. He had an up and down spring, but he's a very interesting prospect that has a chance to become a mid-rotation starter. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can dial it up to 97 at peak, showing some running life in the process to generate ground ball contact. The slider has fringy movement, but it plays up because he has great feel to command it and deploy it effectively, so it evens out to an average pitch. His curveball and changeup aren't used as much but could become average pitches. He has an athletic, repeatable delivery from a sturdy 6'4" frame, so it doesn't get much more ideal on that front. The command has been inconsistent but there are times when it looks above average, and usually it's nothing worse than fringy. The North Texas native has the chance to develop into a workhorse mid-rotation starter, though to get there the Angels will need to find a way to help him miss bats, either by sharpening his slider or finding a fastball variant with more life. Personally I think he has what it takes to get there. He tossed 4.2 shutout innings in the Arizona Complex League, striking out five while walking three along the way.

11-324: SS John Wimmer, Rock Hill HS [SC] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($247,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
John Wimmer is certainly an under the radar prospect, having gone unranked on most major boards and holding a commitment to The Citadel, who typically doesn't lose signees to the draft. He gets nearly $400,000 here, the fifth largest bonus of any Angels draftee this year and fitting in as a fifth round slot valuation. A skinny kid last summer, he has steadily filled out his 6'1" frame and looked more physical this spring, helping create more impact behind his already whippy, explosive right handed swing. It's a visually appealing swing that will be conducive to continued added power as he gets stronger. He's an above average runner, though I haven't seen or heard anything about his defense so I can't speak to that. For what it's worth, he's played exclusively shortstop so far in his pro career. In nine games in the Arizona Complex League, he slashed .161/.206/.226 with a 17/2 strikeout to walk ratio, so he hasn't quite found his footing.

14-414: RHP Zach Joyce, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Angels already have brothers Casey and Caden Dana in the system, so now they'll load up with twin brothers Ben and Zach Joyce as well. Zach, like his brother, began his college career at Walters State JC before transferring to Tennessee, though his career has gone a bit differently. After missing the 2020 season with Tommy John surgery, he stepped away from the game for mental health reasons in 2021 and missed the next two years as well, returning in 2023 to join the Volunteer bullpen. In limited action, he posted a 4.35 ERA and a 17/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings, impressing the Angels along the way in his first action in four years. Joyce sits in the mid 90's with his explosive fastball and can approach triple digits, with plenty of life to make it a nightmare for opponents. He also shows a hard bullet slider and a splitter with nasty fade, making for electric stuff. He pounded the strike zone in his small sample size in 2023, but after so much time away from the game and very little track record since returning, it's hard to be confident in the command. The 6'4" righty does throw with effort, but like his brother is an exceptional athlete that turns his body into a whip and gets down the mound well. It's a pure relief profile. Joyce will turn 23 about two months after the draft, but he's just getting started and could join his brother in the big league bullpen. So far, he has a 3.12 ERA and a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio through 8.2 innings at Low A Inland Empire.

Sunday, August 14, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

The Angels nailed their first pick this year, grabbing a premium talent while still saving nearly a million dollars below slot value, which set them up really well for the rest of the draft. I wasn't always a fan of how they spent the rest of their bonus pool, but they got to go over slot and get the guys they wanted because of those first round savings without sacrificing talent. They leaned heavily into power hitters, especially when it comes to senior signs like Matt Coutney (65 career home runs including JuCo), Sonny DiChiara (63), Luke Franzoni (52), Dylan Phillips (44), Brendan Tinsman (40), and Casey Dana (36). Coutney, DiChiara, and Franzoni especially (in addition to non-senior sign Zach Neto) put up flat-out video game numbers in 2022, so it does appear the Angels collected some of the loudest stat lines in college baseball with this class. Interestingly, California is regularly the state that produces the most draft talent, but the Angels steered completely clear of their home state and instead drafted not one, not two, but three pitchers out of Oklahoma State. Lastly, I'd like to note that the Angels tend to push their college draftees rather aggressively, so numerous guys are already up at AA.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-13: SS Zach Neto, Campbell. My rank: #10.
Slot value: $4.41 million. Signing bonus: $3.5 million ($912,500 below slot value).
I love this pick for the Angels, and given that they got nearly a million dollar discount, it's one of my favorite picks of the entire first round. Zach Neto raked his way to an unbelievable .405/.488/.746 slash line as a sophomore at Campbell last year, then after showing very well in the Cape Cod League, he somehow bested all three slash numbers in 2022 to finish .407/.514/.769 with 15 home runs and a 19/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. Neto does a ton of things well, so it's hard to know where to start. He employs a big, slow leg kick that resembles a pitching motion, but keeps his hands and head quiet so as to not negatively impact his swing. With plus bat to ball skills, strong pitch recognition, and the ability to grind out at bats, there is very little concern that his setup will hurt his ability to hit MLB pitching. To boot, he struck out just 7.4% of the time this spring and just 10.7% of the time against better competition on the Cape. The Miami native is undersized at a skinny six feet tall, but that doesn't stop him from registering high exit velocities and showing potential for above average power from his lean, athletic frame. He finds the barrel extremely consistently and has feel to lift the ball, and all told it could be a 20+ home run bat that regularly posts on-base percentages nearing .400. A shortstop at Campbell, Neto is plenty athletic enough to stick there with solid range, and as a guy who received some innings on the bump for the Camels, he has enough arm to stick as well. I really like this profile and I think the Angels got exceptional value with a below-slot signing in the middle of the first round. He's off to a hot start to his pro career, slashing .313/.400/.500 with two home runs and an 8/4 strikeout to walk ratio over twelve games between High A Tri-City and AA Rocket City.

3-89: RHP Ben Joyce, Tennessee. My rank: #84.
Slot value: $702,100. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($295,400 above slot value).
I think most of us have heard of Ben Joyce by now, but if not, let's talk about one of the most unique profiles in college baseball. First off, Joyce has battled arm injuries throughout his time in college, including Tommy John surgery in late 2020 in addition to a myriad of other issues, and began his career at Walters State JC in Tennessee before transferring to Tennessee in 2021. Finally healthy for a full season in 2022, he registered a 2.23 ERA and a 53/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.1 innings for the Volunteers, almost entirely out of the bullpen. What makes him special, of course, is the stuff. His fastball consistently sits in the 101-103 range, and he registered the fastest pitch ever recorded by a right handed pitcher in baseball history when he hit 105.5 on the gun. Throw in the flat approach angle he puts on the pitch and it's straight up unhittable. The Knoxville native adds a hard, short slider that gets into the upper 80's, though the pitch stands out more for its velocity than its movement and mainly plays up because hitters have to be geared up for his fastball. There's a changeup in there, but it's a distant third pitch. Joyce is generally around the zone with his fastball, even if he doesn't have pinpoint command, but does struggle to land that slider for strikes. The 6'5" righty also throws with high effort and has missed a ton of time with various injuries, so it's a pure relief profile. Those injuries do call into question his durability as a whole, and the Angels don't have a great track record of keeping pitchers healthy, as it is. That said, Joyce can dominate with just his fastball alone, and if he stays healthy, he could be in the big leagues very, very quickly. There is closer upside here if he can learn to command his slider as well. He's gotten into two games for AA Rocket City so far, allowing two runs over two innings while striking out one and walking one.

4-118: RHP Jake Madden, Northwest Florida State JC. My rank: #107.
Slot value: $512,900. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($484,600 above slot value).
The Angels gave Ben Joyce a million dollars if you count the $2,500 contingency bonus players receive in addition to their regular bonus, and Jake Madden got the same a round later. Madden is another Tommy John survivor who looked untouchable at his best this year at Northwest Florida State JC, but did battle inconsistency as blister issues bothered him throughout the spring. The end result was a 4.53 ERA and a 76/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.2 innings, and you can note that those 76 strikeouts were good for a very strong 35.7% strikeout rate. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and has been up to 98, coming in with plenty of running and sinking life from a three quarters arm slot. He adds a solid, short slider and changeup, but for now he stands out more for his power than his refinement. The 6'6" righty is a premium athlete with a ton of projection remaining and he moves extremely well on the mound, though his mechanics do need refinement. He has a long arm action and he kicks his leg out towards third base on his way to the plate, and he has trouble repeating that delivery and can lose his arm slot. As a redshirt freshman that only turns 21 in December, he has time to figure things out and the Angels are buying into the body and athleticism. They likely believe his inconsistency stemmed from those blister issues as well as from having missed the 2021 season with TJ, so they're hoping to get those offspeed pitches and his command up to par quickly. There is a very high ceiling here if they can do that.

5-148: 1B Sonny DiChiara, Auburn. My rank: #164.
Slot value: $383,200. Signing bonus: $172,500 ($210,700 below slot value).
As with Ben Joyce, Sonny DiChiara (pronounced d'share-uh, also known as Sonny D) was one of the most prominent names in the SEC this spring. He spent three years at Samford and blasted 41 home runs over 126 games in the process, then transferred to Auburn this spring and took it to another level by slashing .383/.549/.777 with 22 home runs and a 55/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games against some of the best pitching in college baseball, giving him 63 career home runs if you're keeping track. DiChiara is all bat, and it's a good one. Listed at 6'1", 263 pounds, he looks every bit of it in the box and possesses the plus raw power you'd expect from a big guy like that. It's more strength than bat speed, but he taps that power very consistently in games so it doesn't matter. He is extremely patient in the box, walking 23.8% of the time in 2022, but he will punish you if you come into his zone. He naturally saw a ton of offspeed stuff in 2022, as you might expect looking at his numbers and sheer imposing presence in the box, and does possess some swing and miss. The Birmingham-area native also turned 23 in July, so he's older than most of his peers in college baseball and will want to move quickly. A first baseman only who may have to move to DH, nobody is mistaking him for a speedster out in the field and his value will be entirely tied to his bat. Still, he should move quickly through the minors and could be an every day first baseman sooner rather than later, one that could hit 20+ home runs a year with middling, walk-driven on-base percentages. He's already well on his way to that, slashing .289/.491/.395 with one home run and a 17/11 strikeout to walk ratio over twelve games at AA Rocket City in his home state.

6-178: RHP Victor Mederos, Oklahoma State. My rank: #208.
Slot value: $291,400. Signing bonus: $227,750 ($63,650 below slot value).
Victor Mederos is a guy that has been around. He has pitched for five different schools in the past five years – Coral Reef High School, Monsignor Pace High School, Westminster Christian High School, the University of Miami, and most recently, Oklahoma State – and will now join the Angels organization for yet another new uniform. A highly regarded talent out of Westminster Christian that could have gone in the top three rounds of the 2020 draft had he been signable, Mederos instead wound up on campus at Miami and pitched to middling results, bringing him to Stillwater. He again wound up with middling results, posting a 5.59 ERA and a 62/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 innings, but the Angels love the arm strength and will look to see what they can do here. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 99, but the pitch is straight and plays below its velocity. He shows both a curveball and a slider, which have flashed plus as far back as high school, but they're inconsistent and can blend into each other. His hard changeup can get firm at times but also flashes above average, giving him a powerful four pitch arsenal that shows plenty of promise at his best. The 6'2" righty has tremendous arm strength and is generally around the zone when he trusts his strength and doesn't try to overthrow, but he can lapse into doing so and that's when his command gets scattered. The Angels will want to do something with his fastball to get more life on it, or if not, turning his offspeed pitches into more consistent threats could help keep hitters off the fastball and allow it to play more to its plus velocity. There is a lot of relief risk at this point given all the inconsistency, but I wouldn't count him out just yet as a starter if the Angels can figure something out. In his first game at High A Tri-City, he tossed two no-hit innings with one strikeout and one walk.

10-298: 1B Matt Coutney, Old Dominion. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $152,800. Signing bonus: $7,500 ($145,300 below slot value).
This is a similar pick to Sonny DiChiara, though Matt Coutney played in the C-USA rather than the SEC and signed for a fraction of what DiChiara got. Coutney played two years at Colby JC in Nebraska, then transferred to Old Dominion and broke out in 2022 to slash .376/.473/.808 with 27 home runs and a 54/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. At one point, he had a five hit, two home run game against Middle Tennessee State, and at another point he blasted ten home runs in an eight game span in April. He taps his power with a very leveraged left handed swing, channeling his strength extremely well and causing the ball to just jump off his bat. He finds the barrel extremely consistently and his power plays to all fields, as he's fully willing to go the other way and do damage if that's what the situation calls for. There is some swing and miss in his game and he struck out in nearly 20% of his plate appearances in 2022, so it remains to be seen how the Edmonton, Alberta native performs against quality offspeed stuff in pro ball, but there is a nice baseline here to work off. Coutney is limited to first base and will have to out-hit DiChiara, Luke Franzoni, and other first basemen in the system to earn playing time. DiChiara is already in AA and Franzoni is in Low A, though Coutney did single, homer, and walk in his first three plate appearances down in the Arizona Complex League.

11-328: RHP Caden Dana, Don Bosco HS [NJ]. My rank: #112.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($1.125 million against bonus pool).
Last year, the Angels made a huge splash in the twelfth round when they brought in high school lefty Mason Albright for roughly $1.25 million, a record for day three of the draft. They did something similar this year by signing high school righty Caden Dana for $1.5 million in the eleventh round, breaking Albright's day three record. Dana's massive signing bonus is roughly equivalent to slot value for the 51st overall pick for some context, and it might have helped that the Angels not-so-coincidentally drafted and signed his older brother Casey out of UConn five rounds later. The younger Dana sits in the low 90's right now, getting up to 95-96 at his best with some steep plane. His curveball flashes plus with hard bite, and this spring he has added a shorter slider and can flip in a firm changeup. It's all about power from a very strong, 6'4" frame, and he could continue to add power to his stuff as he develops. He generally locates his fastball well, though his command of his offspeeds is less consistent, so that will be a point of development. There is also some effort to his delivery, which could point him to the bullpen if his command doesn't improve, but the New York native is plenty physical enough to start should that develop properly. The Angels are betting big on the arm strength and that nasty curveball, with hopes to get a #2 starter that could have developed into a first rounder at Kentucky. He tossed two shutout innings on one hit in his first start in the Arizona Complex League.

15-448: RHP Bryce Osmond, Oklahoma State. My rank: #219.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $129,500 ($4,500 against bonus pool).
Along with sixth rounder Victor Mederos and seventh rounder Roman Phansalkar, Bryce Osmond marks the third pitcher the Angels drafted out of Oklahoma State in this class. Like Mederos, Osmond was a highly touted prep arm in the 2019 cycle and had a chance to go in the top three rounds, but signability pushed him to Stillwater where he has been uneven. He struggled to a 7.42 ERA in 2021, then after seeming to turn a corner in the Cape Cod League over the summer, finished 2022 with a 4.75 ERA and a 77/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings. He had actually pushed himself into top five round consideration in April, but allowed ten runs (nine earned) over his final two starts then sat out of the postseason with arm soreness. At his best, Osmond sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has been up to 96, but hitters pick it up easily and it lacks life. His best pitch is a plus slider that misses a ton of bats when it's on, but it can flatten out frequently. The Tulsa-area product adds in an average curveball and changeup, giving him a strong four pitch mix when things are going right. He's very athletic at a still-projectable 6'3", but he struggles to repeat his fairly simple delivery and can lose the strike zone or leave pitches over the heart of the plate. Throw in the arm soreness creating durability concerns, and he may be best served by moving forward as a fastball/slider reliever, where the former could add a tick of velocity and outplay its generic movement. The Angels could still stretch Osmond out as a starter, but he would need considerable work getting more consistent with his offspeed stuff and command to cut it in that role.

19-568: OF Luke Franzoni, Xavier. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $75,000.
The Angels weren't done rounding up the most fearsome college hitters they could find, grabbing one more in Xavier masher Luke Franzoni. After three solid years in Cincinnati, Franzoni busted out for a massive 2022, slashing .354/.485/.821 with 29 home runs and a 64/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, and those 29 home runs finished second in college baseball to Texas' (now the Diamondbacks') Ivan Melendez. He's a big, strong power hitter that loves to get his arms extended, showing plus power to all fields that obviously plays up in games. The New Jersey native is a three true outcome type right now, with comfortably more than half of his plate appearances ending in a home run (10.7%), a walk (19.6%), or a strikeout (23.7%). That strikeout rate is particularly concerning given that he played against average competition in the Big East, and it jumped to 31.7% in a fifteen game stint in the Cape Cod League this summer. As a likely first baseman that will have to compete with Sonny DiChiara and Matt Coutney to climb the ladder, he'll really need to cut down on that swing and miss moving forward in pro ball. Unlike DiChiara and Coutney, however, Franzoni does have an outside shot to play a corner outfield position serviceably. He is slashing .200/.394/.320 with a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio though seven games at Low A Inland Empire, giving him one of the three true outcomes now in nearly two thirds of his plate appearnaces.

Monday, August 16, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

The Angels must have felt their system was short on arms, because they went twenty for twenty here in drafting nothing but pitchers. They set the stage by going more than a million dollars below slot value on ninth overall pick Sam Bachman, then spent that money on a massive overslot bonus for twelfth rounder Mason Albright, in fact the largest ever that late in the draft. Though they only drafted pitchers, the Angels did not have a monolithic draft and really picked up a variety of different types of arms, balancing power arms with finesse guys, projection plays with now-products, and data-friendly arms with traditional pitchers. I don't love all of the picks, but I'm interested in a lot of them and I especially liked fifth rounder Brett Kerry, ninth rounder Braden Olthoff, eleventh rounder Chase Silseth, and thirteenth rounder Mo Hanley. This was a case where I wanted to write about quite a few more names and had to cut some out.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-9: RHP Sam Bachman, Miami of Ohio. My rank: #19.
The Angels didn't hold back any punches with their first pick, going with arguably the nastiest pitcher in the entire class aside from Jack Leiter. Sam Bachman was simply too much for MAC hitters this spring, putting up a 1.81 ERA and a 93/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, allowing just 29 hits along the way for a paltry .147 opponents' batting average to go along with his 41% strikeout rate. The stuff is absolutely legitimate. Bachman sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and routinely touches the upper 90's, cranking it as high as 101 at times, and it's not your typical fastball flight path, either. He gets really low into his delivery, almost crouching as he springs towards the plate, keeping his release point extremely low despite a three quarters arm slot. That makes the pitch ride like a feather in a hurricane, eliciting a ton of swings and misses. The Indianapolis-area native also adds a plus slider that flashes plus-plus, coming with short, late, bat missing bite, sneaking under barrels at the last second. He doesn't use his changeup as often, but is shows flashes of becoming a plus pitch in time with more development. Bachman fills up the strike zone with his three pitches and unlike most pitchers with truly electric stuff, he rarely gets himself into trouble with walks. There are drawbacks, though. The 6'1" righty has not proven his durability yet, as he missed nearly a month with a sore arm early in the season, though he did impress evaluators in his second start back by striking out all nine Northern Illinois hitters he faced, showing there were no lingering issues with the stuff. Still, he pitched past the sixth inning just once this season and while pitch counts aren't available for every game, I don't believe he topped 100 pitches at any point. For a team like the Angels that has struggled to keep pitchers healthy, that makes me nervous. Still, the upside here is a true ace with three plus pitches and above average command at his ceiling, so you can't fault the pick, especially given that they got him at a big discount. Bachman signed for $3.85 million, which was roughly $1.1 million below slot value, and he has allowed two runs through four innings of work so far at High A Tri-City, striking out five.

2-45: LHP Ky Bush, St. Mary's College. My rank: #86.
Having bounced around from Washington State as a freshman to Central Arizona JC as a sophomore to St. Mary's as a junior, Ky Bush really settled in this year and was climbing boards quickly all spring. In a year where many West Coast arms struggled to stand out, Bush really separated himself with a 2.99 ERA and a 112/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings, including a pair of thirteen strikeout performances against Santa Clara and Loyola Marymount. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get up to about 96, coming from a high arm slot that puts downhill plane on the pitch, opposite to Sam Bachman. His best pitch is his slider, coming in with sharp break that works extremely well down in the zone, and he has feel to morph it into more of a curveball at times. Bush also flips in a changeup but mainly pitches off the fastball and slider. Previously a stuff-over-command guy, the 6'6" lefty has worked hard to get more coordinated in his delivery and now fills up the strike zone with above average command, really helping his stuff play up. Because of the steep plane on his fastball, he'll likely have to rely on his slider to get swings and misses once the mid 90's aren't enough to blow by hitters in pro ball, but he still profiles as a #3 or #4 starter once he gets there. The Salt Lake City-area native signed for $1.75 million, which was about $100,000 above slot value, and he tossed 1.1 shutout innings in his High A Tri-City debut, recording all four outs on strikeouts while allowing three baserunners.

3-80: RHP Landon Marceaux, Louisiana State. My rank: #102.
Despite lacking physicality and loud stuff, Landon Marceaux has endeared himself to SEC area scouts just through sheer willpower and performance. He was one of the most consistent starters in the SEC this spring, stepping up for an ineffective and eventually injured Jaden Hill by posting a 2.54 ERA and a 116/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings, including an outing against eventual national champion Mississippi State in which he allowed just three baserunners over seven innings. Marceaux sits around 90 with his fastball, usually a tick above, and gets up to maybe 94 at his best. He adds a slider, curveball, and changeup, none of which are plus, but he shows exceptional feel to sequence and locate them. Every pitch as a purpose and plays off the others, enabling him to hold down tough SEC lineups every Friday even without the electric stuff you'll usually see in Baton Rouge or Nashville or Gainesville on a typical Friday. The skinny 6' righty is a bit undersized but repeats his clean, low effort delivery very consistently while maintaining his stuff throughout his starts, giving him every chance to crack it as a #4 starter at the big league level. He should move quickly and could beat Ky Bush and even Sam Bachman to the majors. The kid from the outskirts of New Orleans signed for full slot value at $767,800.

4-110: RHP Luke Murphy, Vanderbilt. Unranked.
This pick surprised a lot of people, especially given the Angels went above slot. We all knew who Luke Murphy was, as he had plenty of exposure as half of Vanderbilt's "M&M" bullpen duo with Nick Maldonado, but he still went unranked on both the Baseball America 500, the Prospects Live 600, and my tracking list of 243, while sneaking into the MLB Pipeline 250 at #219. Of course, the Angels don't (and shouldn't) care about national rankings and got their guy at pick #110. He came into the season completely off the radar, having redshirted as a freshman in 2019 before walking nine in two innings as a sophomore in 2020, but he put it all together in 2021 with a 2.40 ERA and a 61/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings out of the Vanderbilt bullpen. The 6'5" righty sits in the mid 90's in short stints, getting up as high as 99, and he adds a more inconsistent curveball and changeup that both flash above average. Everything plays up because he puts really tough angle on the ball, reaching his lead leg far across the rubber and releasing the ball well past it, creating a closed off look for the batter. His command improved from non-playable as an underclassman to fringe-average as a sophomore, and he likely would have been a starter had he not been surrounded by names like Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, and Christian Little. It's probably a relief profile in pro ball regardless given his inconsistent secondaries and 45 grade command, but if the Angels are paying him like they're paying him, they probably see him as a starter. You can flip the book and say he's a projectable 6'5", repeats his delivery well, and has plenty of arm strength, and that could lead to some great things as a starter. The Middle Tennessee native signed for $750,000, which was $222,200 above slot value.

5-141: RHP Brett Kerry, South Carolina. Unranked.
Brett Kerry is a really interesting one, and one who I was interested in before the draft but never got around to. He had a fantastic season for South Carolina this year, putting up a 2.15 ERA and an 84/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings, punctuated by some absolute gems against Vanderbilt (5.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K) and Kentucky (9 IP, 0 ER, 10 K). He was a long reliever for most of the season before taking on three starts late, and there's a chance the Angels could develop him as a starter. Kerry mainly pitches off his low 90's fastball that can get up to 95-96, adding an above average slider when he needs it to get outs. He commands both pitches very well and pounds the strike zone, rarely getting himself into trouble with walks and tending to stay ahead in the count. The 6' righty lacks much projection, but he repeats his delivery well and holds his stuff over longer outings, adding to his starter upside, though he will need to better incorporate his changeup if he wants to get there. He turned 22 in April, but the track record over three years (2.54 ERA, 167/26 K/BB in 127.2 IP) is hard to ignore and while I'm usually not a fan of college relievers, I am a fan of this one. The Winston-Salem-area native signed for $297,500, which was $92,900 below slot value, and he tossed two shutout innings in his Low A Inland Empire debut while striking out five of the seven batters he faced.

6-171: RHP Jake Smith, Miami. Unranked.
Jake Smith was eligible last year at the State College of Florida (JC) and warranted some interest in the back of the shortened draft, but ended up at Miami where his stock has largely held. In his first and only season at the Division I level, he pitched to a 3.45 ERA and a 63/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 innings, originally as a reliever before working into the rotation as the Hurricanes struggled to find consistency in that regard. He has plenty of arm strength, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and getting up as high as 97-98, adding an above average sweepy slider and a solid changeup. There's some effort in his delivery as he tends to jerk his way through it, but the 6'4" righty generally keeps his long limbs in check enough to stay around the strike zone. If you squint, you can see a starter's profile here with the big, still projectable frame, the arm strength, three pitch mix, and ability to provide consistent strikes, though it will take some work to get there. The Raleigh-Durham native will need to smooth out that delivery a bit more to get to true average command, as well as further refine his changeup into a consistent weapon rather than a change of pace pitch. He signed for $247,500, which was $46,300 below slot value, and he's thrown four shutout innings so far at High A Tri-City while striking out three.

9-261: RHP Braden Olthoff, Tulane. My rank: #168.
How can you not root for this guy? Braden Olthoff has had a meteoric rise from where he was just a few years ago and doesn't take anything for granted. Having barely pitched in high school, he and his brand new mid 80's fastball were lightly recruited and he wound up at Palomar JC in San Marcos, where he showed pristine control but was hit around due to his lack of stuff as a freshman. That stuff ticked up a bit as a sophomore and landed him a transfer opportunity to Tulane, and it's safe to say he made the most of it. Olthoff was arguably the best pitcher statistically in college baseball in 2020, allowing just one earned run over 28 innings (a 0.32 ERA) while striking out 47 of the 101 batters he faced and walking just three against Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Fullerton, Middle Tennessee State, and Southern. He was a little more hittable over a larger sample this spring and had his line marred a bit by an eight run outing against Cincinnati late in the season, but he still finished with a respectable 3.78 ERA and a 91/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings. The San Diego-area native now sports a low 90's fastball that can get up to around 93-94, adding a huge 12-6 curveball that he can work into a more lateral slider in addition to a plus changeup. However, that stuff did flatten out a bit late in the season this year and he was sitting in the upper 80's in some starts. Olthoff makes everything play up with tremendous pitchability, deftly working through lineups and keeping hitters off balance at virtually all times, executing his game plans with precision. The 6'4" righty may be big, but he's an old school pitcher who throws with very little effort to the point where he almost looks like he's just playing catch. Aside from the changeup, the stuff is pretty fringy as it is so he can't afford to see it tick down like it did in 2021, but it's a really fun profile that could make him a fan favorite back-end starter if the Angels get it right. Having turned 22 in March, he's a bit older, but again he's still pretty new to pitching and shows so much feel for it that I don't doubt his ability to pick up new tricks. He signed for $122,500, which was $35,100 below slot value.

11-321: RHP Chase Silseth, Arizona. My rank: #105.
Chase Silseth may have gone in the eleventh round, but he received the late fourth round money (roughly slot value for pick #119) to go pro with the Angels' sixth largest signing bonus of the draft. He is very well travelled, having travelled from his hometown in northwestern New Mexico all the way across the country to Tennessee for his freshman year, going back to Las Vegas to play at Southern Nevada JC, and finally landing in Tucson at Arizona. He had an up and down spring in the hitter-friendly confines of Hi Corbett Field, finishing with a 5.55 ERA and a 105/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings, but there's a lot to like. The 6' righty goes right after hitters with a low 90's fastball that can get up to 97-98 when he needs it, adding both an above average slider and changeup. His command is average but it plays up because he pounds the strike zone fearlessly while working his pitches in and out, all with a repeatable delivery and a sturdy frame that holds its stuff late into games. He can get hit when he leaves fastballs over the plate or his offspeed stuff flattens out, something he'll need to work hard on in pro ball, but I think he'll figure it out and work his way up as a #4 starter. The Farmington product signed for $485,000, of which $360,000 counts against the Angels' bonus pool.

12-351: LHP Mason Albright, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #176.
The single largest bonus in the history of the draft's third day (rounds 11 and on) went to Mason Albright, who received late second round money (roughly equivalent of pick #57) to forgo becoming Virginia Tech's most hyped recruit in years and shattering my heart into a million pieces as an alum. A native of Thurmont, Maryland near the Pennsylvania line, he transferred to the IMG Academy in Florida but like fellow Marylander and Padres second round pick James Wood, he was a bit underwhelming this spring. Albright is not a power pitcher, instead sitting around 90 with his fastball and only getting up to 93-94 at best. He adds a very sweepy slider that has great shape but needs to add significant power, while his above average changeup is his best pitch and could eventually be plus. Everything plays up because he commands the strike zone well and comes from a deceptive low three quarters arm slot that puts good run on the ball, and he can tunnel those pitches off each other well. This spring, the regression wasn't isolated in any one area, rather everything in his arsenal (command included) backed up just a half grade. The Angels likely see that as just a blip on the radar and instead are buying a high baseball IQ pitcher who understands how to work at bats and keep hitters off balance, believing more velocity will come as he adds strength to his 6' frame and gets into their development system. If it all works out, you'll have a mid-rotation starter who combines savvy with stuff and can stick around for a long time. It took nearly $1.25 million to pass up that Virginia Tech commitment, all but $125,000 of which counts against the Angels' bonus pool.

13-381: LHP Mo Hanley, Adrian College. Unranked.
Mo Hanley was lightly recruited out of high school but has steadily improved his game at Division III Adrian College, then after a strong fall, he was a sleeper pick for a lot of Midwest area scouts. Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery just five starts into the season, but the Angels were impressed enough anyways to take him here in the thirteenth round. Over the last two seasons, he owns a 3.13 ERA and a 57/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, capping off a successful four year career. Hanley has a huge arm that pumps fastballs into the mid 90's with riding action and a wicked slider that's a plus pitch when it's located. The 6'2" lefty has a unique delivery in which he stands on the balls of his feet as he winds up, lifting his outstretched lead leg high into the air in a way that makes my hamstring hurt before exploding towards the plate. Despite all the moving parts, it's not a particularly high effort operation, though he does struggle to repeat it a times and his command is below average, making his pitches play down. For now, it's a reliever profile given his two pitches, inconsistency with his command, the injury, and the fact that he's completely unproven against higher level competition, but there are reasons to hope for a starting pitcher. The Tampa native is big and strong and while he's far from a finished product, he's been steadily trending up for a long time. The Angels need to smooth out his delivery a little bit or at least help him repeat it more consistently to get his command close to average, while also getting him more consistent with his slider and helping add a changeup. It's a lot to ask from a recently-turned 22 year old working his way back from Tommy John, but if the Angels are patient, it's doable. He signed for $125,000.

17-501: RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State. Unranked.
Mason Erla was a breakout arm in 2020, posting a sparkling 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings before the season shut down. He earned looks towards the back of the five round draft, but teams weren't willing to meet his bonus demands and he returned to East Lansing for a fifth year. After posting a 3.50 ERA and an 80/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings, his profile hasn't really changed much, but the fact that he turns 24 shortly after this article is published dampens his stock. Erla has a low 90's fastball that can touch 97-98 early in starts, coming in from a low three quarters arm slot with riding action that makes it tough to square up. He adds a slider that looks sharp at times but is probably an average pitch going forward as well as a changeup, generally throwing his fair share of quality strikes for average command. Given that age, it's almost certainly a relief profile, but the 6'4" righty should be able to move very quickly in that role and watch his stuff tick up with it. For the seventeenth round, I think it's for sure an interesting bet that could help the big league bullpen out as soon as 2022. The rural Michigan native signed, but his bonus isn't publicly available or at least I couldn't find it.

Thursday, July 9, 2020

2020 Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

1-10: LHP Reid Detmers, Louisville
3-82: OF David Calabrese, St. Elizabeth HS (ON)
4-111: SS Werner Blakely, Detroit Edison HS (MI)
5-141: LHP Adam Seminaris, Long Beach State

It was a smaller class for the Angels, as they lost their second round pick after signing Anthony Rendon, and they used their four picks on two left handed college pitchers and two high school hitters. Both Reid Detmers and Adam Seminaris are much more about pitchability than stuff, with extremely polished games that should enable them to move quickly. Meanwhile, both David Calabrese and Werner Blakely are toolsy, athletic players who will need some refinement going forward and may take a little longer. Overall, I definitely like the class they put together and I think they'll get good value out of it. However, my endorsement of the class is damped a bit because they only picked up one low profile player on the undrafted free agent market, which means either a) they don't care about building up their prospect depth or b) they can't sell themselves as a good system to play in.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-10: LHP Reid Detmers, Louisville (my rank: 8)
To start things off, the Angels picked up a really interesting lefty in Reid Detmers. Detmers grew up just outside of Springfield, Illinois, where he went to the same high school that gave us Jayson Werth. After a solid freshman season at Louisville, he's been absolutely untouchable over the past two seasons, going 16-4 with a 2.53 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 215/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.1 innings (in 2020 alone, it was a 1.23 ERA and a 48/6 K/BB). The 6'2" lefty doesn't have much velocity for a first round arm, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and scraping 94, but he gets good riding action on the pitch and misses more bats than you'd expect with it. His best pitch is a plus curveball with extreme depth, enough that he could start it in the upper outside corner to a righty and snap it all the way down under the lower inside corner. Even though it too lacks velocity, even for a curveball, hitters can swing and miss it by embarrassing margins. Detmers also throws an average slider and changeup, but he doesn't use them much and instead focuses on the fastball and curveball. He also brings plus command that itself plays up because of the extreme confidence he puts in it – he doesn't just locate pitches, he controls at bats. His ability and willingness to attack hitters, challenge them, and keep them off balance means that he is always in control of the strike zone and the count, traits that seem to be a little bit of a lost art in today's game of triple digit fastballs and 94 mile per hour sliders (don't get me wrong Max Meyer, I love watching that too). As a cherry on top of his profile, he's very young for a college junior and only turned 21 yesterday (as of this article's release). This profile fits even better with the Angels, who seem to have just the absolute worst luck with keeping pitchers healthy, and that is completely separate from Tyler Skaggs' tragic death last year. With all the busts and injuries in that rotation, having a sure-thing, workhorse starter who may not be an ace, but who is a high probability #2/#3 guy, is a really good thing. Detmers signed for $4.67 million, which was $70,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

3-82: OF David Calabrese, St. Elizabeth HS, ON (my rank: 60)
Skipping down to the third round, the Angels have a chance to get some real value here. David Calabrese is a high school outfielder from the Toronto area who was originally slated to be a member of the 2021 class, but he reclassified and was one of the youngest players available. A lefty hitter, he's a bit undersized at 5'11" and pretty skinny at that, but he has a really loose, natural swing a penchant for making very consistent hard contact against older pitching. I won't go out and project him for 20+ home runs a year, but I think there is enough wiry strength in there to expect maybe 10-15 per season, with which his ability to get on base, makes for a valuable hitter. Combine that with true plus-plus speed that enables him to wreak havoc on the bases, and you have a pretty complete offensive profile. That speed also helps him in center field, where he projects to be an above average defender. Out of a kid who won't even turn 18 until September, that's some really nice upside, especially here in the third round. I'm personally a fan of Calabrese and I think he has a good shot at reaching his potential, so I really like this pick. Committed to Arkansas, he instead sign for slot value at $744,200. Pre-draft profile here.

4-111: SS Werner Blakely, Detroit Edison HS, MI (unranked)
First of all, that's a great baseball name, I dig it. Detroit isn't the biggest baseball hotbed around, and most prospects from the area come out of the suburbs, but Werner Blakely is looking to put inner-city Detroit on the baseball map. A product of the Detroit Edison Public School Academy in the shadows of Comerica Park, Blakely has an explosive swing from the right side that produces decent power for now, but at a very projectable 6'3", he should grow into at least average power. The hit tool is fairly raw and there is swing and miss in his game, so overall, he's a project at the plate. It's a similar story in the field, where he shows great athleticism and range, but he's inconsistent overall. A plus runner as well, if he pulls it all together, he has five tool potential, but the Angels will have to be patient. That will come from streamlining his swing a bit, helping him bulk up a little, and generally just giving him reps on the field. Committed to Auburn, the Angels instead went well over slot to sign him for $900,000, which was $373,400 abot slot value.

5-141: LHP Adam Seminaris, Long Beach State (my rank: 115)
After starting out with players from Illinois, Ontario, and Michigan, the Angels came back home for their last pick and brought on Long Beach State's Adam Seminaris. A product of Ayala High School in Chino Hills, just 16 miles northeast of Angel Stadium, he's steadily improved with the Dirtbags, dropping his ERA from 4.84 as a freshman to 3.35 as a sophomore. He was at his best in the shortened 2020 season, putting up a 1.23 ERA, a 0.55 WHIP (!!), and a 36/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 innings, including absolutely dominant starts against Cal (6 IP, 0 ER, 11 K's) and Mississippi State (8 IP, 0 ER, 10 K's). He's actually fairly similar to first rounder Reid Detmers, but with even less stuff. His fastball hovers right around 90, and he adds in a curveball, slider, and changeup. Out of everything, his changeup is probably his best pitch with nice sink and fade, though he gets some nice two plane depth on his solid average curve as well. The stuff is far from overpowering, but like Detmers, he has plus command. An interesting distinction between the two, though, is that Detmers gets by by attacking the zone with two pitches, while Seminaris mixes speeds and locations with four pitches to an elite level, perhaps even more adeptly than Detmers. That enabled him to pitch very well in the Cape Cod League as well, and it will continue to serve him well as he goes up against professional lineups that don't get knocked off balance so easily. With a loose, low three quarters arm slot, he gets some deception as well and could potentially add a little bit of velocity. If he wants to stick as a starter, he probably will need to add that tick to his fastball, and overall he probably profiles as a #4/#5 at best given the unremarkable offspeed stuff. He signed for $140,000 with his hometown team, which was $250,400 below slot.

Undrafted: OF Elijah Greene, Cal Poly (unranked)
The lone undrafted free agent in this class, Greene, like Seminaris, is from Chino Hills. A graduate of Chino Hills High School, he started off at San Diego State but transferred to Mount San Antonio College without playing a game for the Aztecs. A strong 2018 season on the junior college circuit landed him a spot at Cal Poly, where he has been a decent hitter for two seasons, slashing .265/.327/.300 with a 41/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games. There isn't a ton of impact in his left handed bat, but he has really quick hand makes very consistent contact. He has somewhat of a two part swing with a hitch, so getting that smoothed out could help him stand up to pro pitching a little bit better. Overall, I see the senior sign as more organization depth than anything else, but he could work his way up as a fourth or fifth outfielder at his ceiling.