Despite a disappointing rookie year for Justus Sheffield, this is one of the most improved systems in the game, and the Mariners can really thank three players for that. We already knew Evan White was good, and he did take a small step forward with his power, but three guys really exceeded their already high expectations: outfielders Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez and pitcher Logan Gilbert. Those three now look like legitimate stars, while White and guys like Justin Dunn, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, and Cal Raleigh look like they'll be effective contributors as soon as 2020. They also have a nice, strong relief corps in the upper minors between Sam Delaplane, Joey Gerber, Art Warren, Wyatt Mills, and the recently acquired Aaron Fletcher and Taylor Guilbeau, and that's a whole bullpen right there. The system might still be a little shallow in the infield dirt behind White, but the rest of the system is looking a lot better than it did a year ago.
Affiliates: AAA Tacoma Rainiers, AA Arkansas Travelers, High A Modesto Nuts, Class A West Virginia Power, short season Everett AquaSox, rookie level AZL and DSL Mariners
Catcher
- Cal Raleigh (2020 Age: 23): Raleigh was a third round pick out of Florida State in 2018, and a huge first full season meant that he turned out to be more advanced on both sides of the ball than originally anticipated. Skipping over Class A entirely, he slashed .251/.323/.497 with 29 home runs and a 116/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at High A Modesto and AA Arkansas. Raleigh is a switch hitter with a lot of power from both sides of the plate, and while there was some swing and miss in his game in college, he managed to keep the strikeouts reasonably low and get to his power consistently in 2019. Defensively, Raleigh was a bit rough with both the arm and the glove when he entered pro ball, but he's smoothed it out surprisingly quickly and now looks like he'll stay behind the plate. At this point, he looks like he'll be the Mariners' catcher of the future, one who provides most of his value with his bat by hitting 20-25 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages.
- Carter Bins (2020 Age: 21): Bins, an over slot eleventh round pick out of Fresno State in 2019, doesn't quite have the ceiling of Raleigh but he could be a nice backup down the line. In his pro debut, he slashed .208/.391/.357 with seven home runs and a 56/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games at short season Everett, which was about expected given his pre-draft profile. He was a streaky hitter in college and continued to be in pro ball, showing some power and good patience at the plate, though that patience did lead to a high strikeout rate. Bins is also a very good defensive catcher, taking pressure off his bat, and his profiles as the kind of guy who could hit 10-15 home runs annually in the majors with decent on-base percentages he gets more consistent at the plate.
- Keep an eye on: Jose Caguana
Corner Infield
- Evan White (2020 Age: 24): White has an interesting profile as a rare glove-first first baseman. Of course, the Mariners didn't draft him in the middle of the first round out of Kentucky in 2017 without thinking he would be an impact hitter, and the bat has held up in pro ball with a .293/.350/.488 slash line, 18 home runs, and a 92/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at AA Arkansas in 2019. He came into pro ball with a flat, line drive-oriented swing, but the Mariners got him to start hitting the ball in the air a little more in 2019 and it helped improved his ISO from .153 in 2018 to .195 in 2019 despite moving to a more pitcher-friendly league. That likely will be the difference in him becoming a future impact player for the Mariners, one who can now hit 15-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. That would be just a decent projection for a first baseman, except that he's such an exceptional defender around the bag that he'll be a big net-positive on defense. White will likely take over as the starting first baseman in 2020 and he's an early contender for the AL Rookie of the Year Award if he can maintain the strides he's made with his power production.
- Joe Rizzo (2020 Age: 22): Rizzo was a second round pick out of high school a town over from me in Virginia in 2016, so I played against him a few times in high school. Very much a bat-first prospect, he took a few years to get going at the plate while he was pushed aggressively by the Mariners, but he finally started to get it figured out in 2019 when he slashed .295/.354/.423 with ten home runs and a 94/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at High A Modesto. He's a bit undersized at a listed 5'10" (probably a little smaller than that), and it took a little bit for him to tap into his power. That power is more to the gaps than over the fence, and he set a career high with 30 doubles in 2019, and he has a strong enough approach at the plate to make it play up. It will have to, because he's below average at third base and he's too short to play first base. He doesn't turn 22 until right before the start of the season, so he has time to continue to develop, but his future is contingent on maintaining the strides he made at the plate and proving it wasn't a California League mirage.
- Austin Shenton (2020 Age: 22): Shenton may have been a fifth round pick out of Florida International University, but he's every bit of a hometown guy for the Mariners in that he grew up in Bellingham and spent a year at Bellevue Community College before transferring to FIU. He impressed in his pro debut to earn his spot in this writeup, slashing .298/.376/.510 with seven home runs and a 44/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games at short season Everett and Class A West Virginia. A hit over power guy at FIU, he lifted the ball more in pro ball and hit for more power than expected while keeping his strikeout rate at a reasonable level. A third baseman for now, he's fairly mediocre there, so there's a chance he shifts positions to second base or the outfield. If he can keep up the power surge he showed in a small sample in 2019, his bat should profile wherever he ends up.
- Keep an eye on: Jake Scheiner, Bobby Honeyman
Middle Infield
- Donnie Walton (2020 Age: 25-26): Walton, a fifth round pick out of Oklahoma State in 2016, has always hit just enough to stay relevant, but in 2019 he turned it up a notch and hit himself up to the majors. He hit .300/.390/.427 with eleven home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 72/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at AA Arkansas, then hit .188/.316/.188 with a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio in a brief, seven game call-up to the majors. He's not the most physical guy in the lineup at 5'10", but he's hit well due to very strong plate discipline and the ability to hunt his pitch in favorable counts. While that may not lead to a full time starting role, it bodes well for his ability to continue to hit at the major league level. He's a good with the glove but with a fringy arm, he fits better at second base than at shortstop. Expect to see him in the majors in a utility capacity in 2020.
- Joseph Rosa (2020 Age: 23): Rosa was a well-regarded prospect until he hit just .217/.299/.285 in Class A in 2018, but he bounced back nicely in 2019 by slashing .271/.366/.386 with four home runs and a 98/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Class A West Virginia and High A Modesto. Rosa is probably a bit light on tools if he wants to end up a full time starter, but he has a strong enough game across the board, especially with his strong plate discipline, to make it work as a utility infielder down the line. Now that he's started to get things figured out at the plate, he might start to move a little more quickly, too.
- Noelvi Marte (2020 Age: 18): Marte signed for $1.55 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, then had a weirdly streaky pro debut that featured 26 consecutive hitless at bats at one point and a streak of 11 multi hit games in a 15 game stretch at another. Overall, he slashed .309/.371/.511 with nine home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 55/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games in the Dominican Summer League, all at just 17 years old. He's an electric player, one who can hit for power and who got to it consistently in the DSL without striking out too much. He also has easy plus speed that enables him to be a force on the bases, and while it hasn't quite translated to his defensive game yet, it should help him there down the line. Marte is an aggressive hitter who will have to learn to control the strike zone once he starts to face more advanced pitchers, but he also will play all of 2020 at just 18 years old and has plenty of time to figure it out. He's a high ceiling talent for sure, though we don't know where his future lies on the diamond. For now, he's a shortstop and does have the potential to stick there if he gets more consistent.
- Keep an eye on: Jose Caballero, Mike Salvatore, Patrick Frick, Juan Querecuto
Outfield
- Jarred Kelenic (2020 Age: 20-21): Kelenic was on the older side for a high school prospect when he was drafted sixth overall by the Mets out of the Milwaukee area in 2018, turning 19 a month later, but he certainly made up for any perceived lost time by shooting up to AA in his first full season. Acquired from New York as part of the return for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, Kelenic slashed .291/.364/.540 with 23 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 111/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Class A West Virginia, High A Modesto, and AA Arkansas in 2019. Drafted for his advanced bat, he showed more power than anticipated as well, proving to be as complete of an all-around hitter as you can be in your age 19-20 season. Kelenic manages the strike zone very well for his age, had no problem against much older pitching, and tapped into some raw power that could help him hit 20-25 home runs annually at the major league level, with high on-base percentages. He's also a solid defender with a good arm, one who might not be a Gold Glover in center field but who could get the job done there, and his instincts on the bases helped his above average speed play up. He's probably not quite on superstar level, but he's one of the top prospects around at this point as someone who could impact the game in a variety of ways. Given how wide-open the Mariners outfield situation is, Kelenic might even be able to break through to a starting role at some point in 2020.
- Kyle Lewis (2020 Age: 24-25): Lewis was a potential top five pick in the 2016 draft after a massive season at Mercer, and the Mariners were ecstatic when he ultimately fell to them with the eleventh overall pick. However, it's been anything but a smooth ride for the Atlanta-area native as his pro debut was cut short by a bad knee injury that continued to linger into 2017 and even 2018. Fully healthy for perhaps the first time in three years this year, Lewis had his best pro season yet, slashing .263/.342/.398 with eleven home runs and a 152/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at AA Arkansas. Earning a call-up to the Mariners in September, he slashed .268/.293/.592 with six home runs in an excellent 18 game debut, though his 29/3 strikeout to walk ratio was just a bit worrisome. All the lost time from the knee injury probably cut down Lewis' ceiling a bit, but with his plus raw power and quick swing, the last thing for him in his development is really just to lock down the strike zone, which he can get to doing now that he's finally healthy. Controlling the zone will be the key to getting to his power consistently against big league pitching, though it take a little bit for him to figure it out consistently. The Mariners' outfield situation is wide open in 2020, with only Mitch Haniger having a locked down starting spot, and Lewis should have the inside track to earning a starting role out of the gate.
- Jake Fraley (2020 Age: 24-25): Fraley, originally a competitive balance pick out of LSU by the Rays in 2016, came over in the Mike Zunino/Mallex Smith deal a year ago. Fraley hit just .211/.279/.339 in an injury-shortened 2017, but turned it around in another injury-shortened 2018 where he hit .347/.415/.547 in High A. He proved that the turnaround was real in 2019, slashing .298/.365/.545 with 19 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 89/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at AA Arkansas and AAA Tacoma, then hit .150/.171/.200 with a 14/0 strikeout to walk ratio in a tough 12 game MLB debut. That power might be a bit of a mirage, as he has never been much of a power hitter before this season and he did spent 38 games in the hitters' heaven of the Pacific Coast League (where he hit eight of his 19 home runs), though he also began to lift the ball a bit more in 2019 and that tells me it's probably not a complete mirage. Fraley makes good, consistent, quality contact when healthy, and he adds great speed that really helped him on both sides of the ball. As I said with Lewis, that's a wide-open outfield situation in Seattle, and I wouldn't call it a stretch to think he could snag a starting spot at some point in 2020. Fraley could hit 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and some speed, but the big thing will be staying on the field because his 111 games in 2019 came on the heels of playing just a combined 96 from 2017-2018.
- Braden Bishop (2020 Age: 26): Bishop's bat is a bit light, but his glove got him to the majors in 2019 and it will at least keep him hanging around the fringes while he tries to get that bat over the hump. In 2019, he slashed .271/.358/.471 with eight home runs and a 53/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games at High A Modesto and AAA Tacoma, though you do have to take into consideration the hitter-friendly nature of both of those affiliates. He also spent some time with the major league club and slashed .107/.153/.107 with a 21/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 27 games. Bishop isn't a power hitter but does a good job of making consistent contact and using his plus speed to take extra bases when his hits fall into the gaps, and he does have a little over the fence pop when he gets into one. The bat was a bit exposed in his brief time in the majors in 2019, though he's a hard worker and should be able to get his hit tool to work just enough to carve out a fourth or fifth outfielder spot. The calling card is his defense, as he's excellent in center field and at the very least makes for a valuable defensive replacement late in games. In addition, Mariners fans will find Bishop will be easy to root for for a couple of reasons. First off, though he grew up in the San Francisco Bay Area, he's a product of the University of Washington, and secondly, he and his younger brother Hunter (a Giants' 2019 first rounder) run a charity called 4MOM, which works to spread awareness and raise money for Alzheimers research in honor of his late mother.
- Julio Rodriguez (2020 Age: 19): Kelenic's breakout was among the biggest stories on the Seattle farm this year, as it should have been, but it cause another huge breakout to go a bit under the radar. The Mariners signed Julio Rodriguez out of the Dominican Republic for $1.75 million in 2017, then after a successful debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 (.315/.404/.525), they skipped him all the way up to A ball for 2019. Despite the massive jump in competition, playing the season at just 18 years old, and missing time with a fractured hand, Rodriguez passed with flying colors by slashing .326/.390/.540 with 12 home runs and a 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Class A West Virginia and High A Modesto. He has good raw power from a simple, leveraged right handed swing, and given his age and size (listed 6'4", 225), he should easily add more and end up with true plus power down the road. He also manages the strike zone very well for his age, which enabled him to get up to High A at 18 years old, and that enables him to get to the barrel very consistently and will help him easily tap his power as he gets stronger. Really, there are just two things left for Rodriguez to figure out at the plate, and since he's set to play all of 2020 at 19 years old, he has plenty of time to do it. He needs to start lifting the ball more to get to his power, which should be no problem with his swing, and and he needs to stay within himself consistently at the plate; at times, Rodriguez would pull off the ball and try to do too much, but when he kept everything in line and stayed through the ball, that's when he was at his best. It's a really high ceiling for a really talented player already.
- Keep an eye on: Eric Filia, Dom Thompson-Williams, Cade Marlowe
Starting Pitching
- Logan Gilbert (2020 Age: 22-23): The Mariners drafted Gilbert in the middle of the first round out of Stetson in 2018, but held him out of game action after a long college season. They turned him loose in 2019, and the results were remarkable – Gilbert posted a 2.13 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 165/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 innings at Class A West Virginia, High A Modesto, and AA Arkansas. The Orlando native has a deep arsenal of effective pitches, led by a fastball that added a tick of velocity this year and now sits consistently in the mid 90's. He adds a slider, a curveball, and a changeup, all of which are effective, and the changeup especially took a step forward in pro ball. He also got more consistent with his command, and his 6'6" frame helps give him extra extension and make everything play up. Not that this was unforeseen, as he was an extremely highly regarded draft prospect in 2018, but he's a more complete pitcher than he was at this point a year ago and now looks like he could be a very good #2 starter, perhaps as soon as 2020.
- Justin Dunn (2020 Age: 24): Back in 2016, Dunn went to the Mets in the middle of the first round out of Boston College, but a rough 2017 set him back a bit as a prospect. He bounced back effectively in 2018, re-establishing himself as a top prospect, and he joined Kelenic and others in being shipped to Seattle in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal that offseason. In his new organization in 2019, Dunn posted a 3.55 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 158/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 131.2 innings at AA Arkansas, then reached the majors for a brief cup of coffee, allowing two runs on two hits and nine walks over 6.2 innings, striking out five. One of the better athletes in the system, Dunn sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a slider, a curve, and a changeup, and all are gradually improving. The slider is likely his best weapon at this point, but he has worked hard to make himself into more of a complete pitcher and it shows. He's gotten more consistent with his command, walking just 7.1% of his opponents in AA this year, and I'd be pretty comfortable attributing the high walk rate in his MLB debut to rookie jitters. Overall, he looks like a #3 or a #4 starter who could contribute in 2020.
- Justus Sheffield (2020 Age: 23-24): Given how shallow the Mariners are in starting pitching at the major league level, I'm not going to knock Sheffield to the bullpen just yet, as he does have the inside track to winning a spot in 2020. However, given his struggles with command, I'm not sure how long he'll last there. In 2019, he posted a 4.13 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 133/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 innings at AA Arkansas and AAA Tacoma, as well as a 5.50 ERA and a 37/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 36 major league innings. There's no question about his stuff, which is easily the best in the Mariners' system. He sits in the mid 90's with his ground ball-inducing fastball, adding a power slider that can be an out pitch when located and a changeup that has come along nicely. However, his command is well below average, making his stuff play down across the board, and even at 23 years old he remains much more of a thrower than a pitcher. However, he has shown the ability to throw consistent strikes at times, and he could be just a few small adjustments away from figuring it out and developing into a #2 or #3 starter. However, guys like Gilbert and Dunn have probably passed him on the depth chart, and if he fails to put it together in 2020, he could find himself as an effective lefty fastball/slider reliever.
- Ljay Newsome (2020 Age: 23): As far as I know, there haven't been any major leaguers to come out of Southern Maryland recently, but Ljay Newsome is looking to become the next. A 26th rounder out of high school in 2015, he's worked his way up slowly but broke out in 2019, posting a 3.54 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 169/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 155 innings at High A Modesto, AA Arkansas, and AAA Tacoma. Newsome's carrying tool has always been his pinpoint command, though the rest of his stuff is a bit fringy. His fastball did take a step forward and is now consistently in the low 90's, and he adds a slider, a curve, and a changeup. The slider has some nice, late break, and it's probably his best secondary pitch, but everything really just comes back to his ability to command it. Few minor leaguers can hit their spots like Newsome, and now with his added fastball velocity, he has legitimate aspirations of becoming a #4 starter in the near future. The ceiling is pretty limited, but the floor is pretty high.
- Ricardo Sanchez (2020 Age: 23): Sanchez was originally an Angels prospect but went to the Braves in 2015 for Kyle Kubitza, then got sold to the Mariners after the 2018 season. Always talented, he's faced constant questions about his work ethic that have slowed his development and caused him to be extremely inconsistent throughout his time in the Braves system. He continued to be inconsistent in 2019, but it seems that the change of scenery helped him at least get on the right track. In 2019, he had a 4.44 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 135/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 146 innings at AA Arkansas, getting more consistent with his solid stuff and command while setting a career high in innings by a long shot. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, which has some running life, and he adds a curve and a changeup that can both miss bats when they're on. At present, he's probably a #4/#5 starter, but with the gains it looks like he's made with his work ethic, he could end up as more.
- George Kirby (2020 Age: 22): The Mariners had success with a small school college starter in Logan Gilbert last year, so they grabbed another one in the first round in 2019, taking George Kirby from Elon. Kirby is a pretty similar pitcher to Gilbert, if with a bit lighter stuff and a bit better command, but he's just as good. In his pro debut, he posted a 2.35 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 25/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings at short season Everett, and when you add that to his Cape Cod League and college stats, he had an absurd 156/7 strikeout to walk ratio in 124 innings overall. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds two distinct, effective breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, as well as a changeup. For a command-first type, that's more than enough stuff, and it gives him more upside than you'd expect. There's a very good chance that a year from now, he's in the same spot that Gilbert is now, which is certainly a great place to be.
- Isaiah Campbell (2020 Age: 22-23): Campbell was a top draft prospect as an Arkansas redshirt sophomore in 2018, but he elected to go back to school for his redshirt junior season and the Mariners picked him up in the second competitive balance round in 2019. He didn't pitch in pro ball, but I do really like him as a prospect. He looked really, really good at times earlier in his college career, but he also missed time due to injuries and his command often wavered when he was on the mound, causing his stuff to play down at times. However, he got much more consistent with that command in 2019, causing his stuff to play up instead of down. The stuff isn't really a question, as he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and he gets good downhill plane on that pitch due to his high arm slot. His slider is his next best pitch, and he adds a curveball and a changeup. If he can get more consistent with those last two pitches, now that he's got solid average command, he has a really good shot at becoming a #3 or #4 starter. Even as is, I like his chances of becoming a #4 or a #5, or a power fastball/slider reliever whose stuff can play up from the high arm slot. For draft pick #76, this is great value.
- Brandon Williamson (2020 Age: 22): Williamson went in the second round out of TCU in 2019, then had a strong pro debut with a 2.35 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings at short season Everett. He's a 6'6" lefty who, at his best, can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add three breaking balls, but both his stuff and his command were inconsistent at TCU. He looked good in that pro debut from both a stuff and a command perspective, but the Mariners have more work to do to get him to looking like that over 150 innings instead of 15. He has #3 starter potential if he does pull it together, but probably ends up in the bullpen if he doesn't.
- Juan Then (2020 Age: 20): Then is a bit of a sleeper, though he's already been traded twice and he's still a teenager – first from Seattle to the Bronx for Nick Rumbelow in 2017, then back to Seattle for Edwin Encarnacion in 2019. This year, he had a 2.98 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 48/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.1 innings between the complex level Arizona League, short season Everett, and Class A West Virginia, as he's been brought along slowly. Though he's just 19, he's actually more about pitchability than pure stuff, showing a low 90's fastball a solid curveball, and a good changeup, which he can mix effectively for someone his age. At a listed 6'1" and 155 pounds, he's got some projection remaining, which he'll need in order to survive the rigors of a longer season – at this point, he hasn't thrown more than 61.1 innings in any of his three. He'll pitch all of 2020 at 20 years old, and with a keen understanding of the game, he just needs to work on sharpening his stuff.
- Sam Carlson (2020 Age: 21): Carlson was drafted in the second round out of a Minneapolis-area high school in 2017, but he's thrown all of just three innings so far. Elbow discomfort cut his pro debut short, and a year later, he underwent Tommy John surgery, which ended his 2018 season and kept him out for all of 2019 as well. The good news is he should be fully healthy by the time spring training roles around, and had he attended Florida instead of going to pro ball, he'd just be entering his junior season anyways, so he's still younger than recent college draftees like George Kirby and Brandon Williamson. When he's healthy, he has three potential plus pitches that he can command in a mid 90's fastball, a great slider, and a great changeup, which gives him the ceiling of a true ace. However, he has everything to prove after three years away from the mound, as he'll have to re-establish his feel for all of his pitches as well as his command. He's probably the biggest wild card in the system.
- Keep an eye on: Max Povse, Anthony Misiewicz, Penn Murfee, Adam Hill, Tim Elliott, Brayan Perez, Levi Stoudt
Relief Pitching
- Sam Delaplane (2020 Age: 25): Delaplane was a 23rd round pick out of Eastern Michigan in 2017, but since then, all he's done is strike out 270 batters in just 161.1 innings. In 2019, he had a 2.23 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 120/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.2 innings at High A Modesto and AA Arkansas, then tossed another 2.2 shutout innings (with five strikeouts) in the Texas League playoffs. Delaplane sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider with average command, but everything plays up because hitters just can't pick up the ball out of his hand. He comes from a high arm slot, almost similar to the Dodgers' Marshall Kasowski, and the ball looks like it's coming out of his ear. So even though it's a middle relief profile with his lack of a true strikeout pitch, he will likely end up as more just because you just can't track his pitches.
- Aaron Fletcher (2020 Age: 24): Fletcher was the Nationals' 14th round pick out of Houston in 2018, then came over in the Hunter Strickland/Roenis Elias deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he posted a 2.09 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and an 84/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings at Class A, High A, and AA, though he doesn't fit the typical relief profile. The lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider and a decent changeup, but he makes everything play up due to his above average command as well as his ability to be much more pitcher than thrower. He hides the ball well in his deliberate delivery, and the angle he can put on his pitches makes them play up from the left side. Additionally, Fletcher has shown the ability to be effective over multiple innings, and I honestly think he could crack it as a #4 or a #5 starter, but the Mariners seem committed to him as a lefty long reliever.
- Joey Gerber (2020 Age: 22-23): Gerber was an eighth round pick out of Illinois in 2018, and as expected, he's moved quickly through the minors. After reaching Class A in his pro debut, Gerber had a strong first full season in 2019 with a 2.59 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 69/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.2 innings at High A Modesto and AA Arkansas, then added five shutout innings (with six K's and no walks) in the Texas League playoffs. Gerber is a fastball/slider guy that sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and gets good lateral movement on his frisbee slider, and both pitches play up because his funky delivery makes it difficult to pick them up. While his command can be just a bit shaky, he's done a good job of getting his funky delivery under control and keeping a consistent arm slot, which has helped him hit his spots more often than not. He should be in the bigs in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Taylor Guilbeau, Art Warren, Wyatt Mills, Dayeison Arias,
Showing posts with label Isaiah Campbell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Isaiah Campbell. Show all posts
Sunday, January 5, 2020
Saturday, June 22, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Seattle Mariners
First five rounds: George Kirby (1-20), Brandon Williamson (2-59), Isaiah Campbell (CBB-76), Levi Stoudt (3-97), Tim Elliott (4-126), Austin Shenton (5-156)
Also notable: Michael Limoncelli (6-186), Adam Macko (7-216), Carter Bins (11-336)
The Mariners went pitching heavy in this draft, selecting arms with each of their first five picks and eight of their first nine. Some of them, like George Kirby and Isaiah Campbell, I really liked, though others, like Brandon Williamson, I found more questionable. Regardless, the Mariners rebuilt what was an extremely shallow group of pitchers prior to the drafting of Logan Gilbert and trade for Jordan Sheffield last year (with Gilbert and Sheffield moving in opposite directions on prospect charts since then). Interestingly, the Mariners, who are Major League Baseball's northernmost team, went heavy on northern players this year despite highly-drafted players traditionally coming from more southerly areas. In order, their picks originally grew up in: New York, Minnesota, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Washington, New York, and Alberta. Lastly, I want to make a quick mention of them drafting two players from North Greenville University in South Carolina with fantastic baseball names: Kipp Rollings in the 24th round and Utah Jones in the 29th round.
1-20: RHP George Kirby (Elon, my rank: 17)
I really like this pick. George Kirby put up a great sophomore season against mediocre competition at Elon last year with a 2.89 ERA and a 96/27 strikeout to walk ratio, then got better this season by posting a 2.75 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and an absurd 107/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings, again against Elon's mediocre competition. He was also exceptional as a reliever in the elite Cape Cod League posting a 1.38 ERA and a 24/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 innings. Scouts look for "starter traits" when scouting pitchers, those being such things as durability, projectability, command, stuff, depth of arsenal, ability to repeat delivery, etc. Well, in a draft class that was really short on pitching at the very top, Kirby exhibits more starter traits than just about anyone else. He controls the strike zone exceptionally well (that's how you end up with almost 18 strikeouts for every walk), but unlike most command/control types, the Westchester County (NYC suburbs) native has good stuff to boot. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds both a good curveball and a good slider as well as a changeup, and at a sturdy 6'3", he's both durable and projectable. While his stuff doesn't jump off the page, it's legitimate and plays up because of his command. In a game becoming ever more dependent on the three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, and home runs), Kirby will fit right in because in 88 innings he struck out 107, walked six, and allowed three home runs. That whole profile gives him the ceiling of a #2 starter in an Aaron Nola sense, and he comes without much risk just because he has very few holes in his game. He signed for $3.24 million, right at slot.
2-59: LHP Brandon Williamson (Texas Christian, my rank: 104)
While I really liked the Kirby pick, I think this one is a bit riskier. The 6'6" lefty transferred from Northern Iowa Area Community College to TCU this year, then posted a 4.19 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and an 89/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings. Williamson, from the small town of Sherburn, Minnesota, has a lot of the building blocks for future success but has not put it together yet. The phrase "6'6" lefty" make scouts drool, and when he's going right, Williamson sits in the low to mid 90's with a good slider as well as a curve and a changeup from an easy, repeatable delivery, but both his command and the quality of his stuff can be inconsistent. If the Mariners can help iron out whatever is keeping him from being his best every inning, they might have a mid rotation starter on their hands, but he has a lot of work to do for a college pitcher selected in this range. He signed for $925,000, which was $265,000 below slot.
CBB-76: RHP Isaiah Campbell (Arkansas, my rank: 36)
Make that two out of three picks here that I really, really like. Just as Williamson was considered a potential top five rounds pick in 2018, when Williamson was a sophomore at NIACC and Campbell was a junior at Arkansas. However, after posting a 4.26 ERA and a 75/29 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, Campbell elected to return to Fayetteville for his senior season, a decision made easier because with an August birthday, he was young for his class. The decision paid off because he went 12-1 and dropped his ERA to 2.13 while posting a 0.92 WHIP and a 125/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings against tough competition, a result of his vastly improved command. Born in Portugal, the Kansas City native is a 6'4" right hander that sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which he gets good downhill plane on due to his high arm slot. He also adds a good slider that gets swings and misses, though his curveball and changeup still have some catching up to do. His command was an issue last year, but because of his huge improvement there, he now has a better shot at sticking in the rotation and could be a mid-rotation guy. I like the upside here even though he turns 22 in August. He hasn't signed yet, with slot value at $818,200.
3-97: RHP Levi Stoudt (Lehigh, my rank: 134)
Levi Stoudt is an interesting prospect, one who comes with a few holes in his game but who also can look like a legitimate starting pitcher at others. His ERA has gone up significantly over his three seasons at Lehigh, starting at 2.34 as a freshman before jumping to 3.03 as a sophomore, and this year he posted a 3.53 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 69/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.2 innings against mediocre competition. He also survived the Cape Cod League, where he put up a 4.26 ERA and a 26/16 strikeout to walk ratio in 25.1 innings. Stoudt comes in with some arm strength, showing a low 90's fastball that can move into the mid 90's at times, though his secondaries are more inconsistent. His changeup is his best, as it shows some drop and can miss bats, and his slider flashes good shape but can flatten out. He also has a curveball that can look average at times but that can also get loopy. Some question his size at 6'1" and the fact that he never threw more than 65 innings in a season at Lehigh, but he has an athletic delivery and has average command. The Eastern Pennsylvania native has the upside of a #3 or a #4 starter, though he needs to get more consistent with all of his secondaries and prove his durability. Slot value is $599,100 and he has not signed yet.
4-126: RHP Tim Elliott (Georgia, unranked)
Elliott didn't pitch a whole heck of a lot over his first two seasons at Georgia, but the Bulldogs turned him loose in the rotation this year – one of the best rotations in college baseball that also included Cardinals' third rounder Tony Locey and potential 2020 first rounders Emerson Hancock and Cole Wilcox – and he posted a 2.38 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 72/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.2 innings. Elliott has fairly similar stuff to Stoudt, starting with a low 90's fastball and adding a good changeup as well as a slider and a curveball, neither of which are swing and miss pitches at this point. He also has average command, so he's not a control artist but he's also not wild. Hailing from the outskirts of the Atlanta suburbs, Elliott is 6'1" like Stoudt and while his big junior season at Georgia make him the more proven commodity, his delivery has a lot of moving parts in contrast to Stoudt's easy, athletic delivery. Elliott probably has less upside but he has a chance at being a #4 or a #5 starter. He signed for $400,000, which was $51,800 below slot, and he has thrown four shutout innings over his first two appearances at short season Everett, striking out six while allowing only three baserunners.
5-156: 3B Austin Shenton (Florida International, unranked)
After taking five straight pitchers, the Mariners pivoted to a bat in the fifth round, grabbing FIU third baseman Austin Shenton. Shenton opened eyes with an excellent .349/.450/.490 run through the Cape Cod League that also included four home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio, though he started slowly this season for FIU before heating up as the season wore on. In the end, his .330/.425/.513 line with seven home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games looked pretty good but was not quite up to expectations against Conference-USA pitching. Despite a swing that includes a deep hand load and a bit of an upward angle on his swing, he's actually hit over power and held a reasonably low 16.3% strikeout rate this season. The strong run through the Cape Cod League helps project him for high averages and some walks to give him strong on-base percentages, though he'll likely never hit more than 10-15 home runs per season at his best. His defense is also questionable, as he is just adequate at third base and may be forced to another position. Overall, he profiles as a bat-first bench player. Interestingly, despite playing at FIU, Shenton is from the Seattle area, making this a homecoming for him. He signed at slot for $336,600 and is slashing .231/.333/.269 with eight strikeouts to one walk over his first seven games at Everett.
6-186: RHP Michael Limoncelli (Horseheads HS [NY], my rank: 103)
Limoncelli's profile is pretty straightforward; he's a cold weather arm from Upstate New York with two potential plus pitches who is old for his class and is recovering from Tommy John surgery. The 6'2" righty sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a very good two-plane curveball, both of which he can command. Cold weather arms like Limoncelli, who grew up an hour west of Binghamton, typically have less development under their belts due to less outside practice and are therefore given the benefit of the doubt when being compared against players from places like Florida and Texas, though the fact that Limoncelli already turned 19 in May probably takes some of that slack away from him. He has a ton of upside and could be a mid-rotation starter, but he also comes with a lot of risk given that he won't get into professional games until he's 20 years old next spring or summer. Slot value is $259,400, but it may take more than that to buy him out of his Coastal Carolina commitment.
7-216: LHP Adam Macko (Vauxhall Academy [AB], unranked)
A round after popping Limoncelli from Upstate New York, the Mariners went for an even colder-weather arm in Adam Macko, who grew up west of Edmonton, Alberta but attended the Vauxhall Academy of Baseball in rural Vauxhall, Alberta. That's cold. Anyways, Macko does not throw hard – his fastball rarely scrapes 90 – but the 6' lefty has excellent feel to spot all of his pitches, including his offspeeds, around the zone. Those offspeeds are just average for now, as he shows feel to spin a curveball with good shape but without much power as well as a decent changeup. He has a lot of work to do if he wants to crack a major league rotation, but if he can maintain this command, he should be able to succeed by simply bumping his fastball from the 86-89 range to the 88-92 range and sharpening his secondaries a little, obviously easier said than done. The Mariners are hoping that getting him off the windswept Northern Plains will help. Slot value is $203,400, and he has a commitment to Purdue that he has not yet been signed away from.
11-336: C Carter Bins (Fresno State, my rank: 113)
Bins was talented enough to go in the top five rounds, but signability pushed him here to the eleventh, where he signed for a fifth round bonus of $350,000. He's a defense-first catcher who slashed .301/.372/.526 as a sophomore at Fresno State before dropping to .280/.385/.427 with six home runs and a 48/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games this year. He shows some loft in his swing but the bat speed is just average, so his power will likely be mostly to the pull side, but he does have a track record for hitting the ball hard. His real calling card is his defense, as he is an all-around asset behind the plate that will not only stick back there but provide positive value without much of a doubt. If he can hit at all, he'll land a back-up job at the major league level, and if he can start to generate a little more power while maintaining his on-base percentage, he could conceivably wind up a starter. However, the bat has a bit of a ways to go if he does indeed plan to end up starting. The Fairfield, California native's $350,000 bonus counts for $225,000 against the Mariners' bonus pool, but their savings on Williamson and Elliott as well as tenth rounder Kyle Hill help them absorb that. Through five games with Elliott and Shenton at Everett, he's slashing .211/.318/.211 with ten strikeouts to three walks.
Also notable: Michael Limoncelli (6-186), Adam Macko (7-216), Carter Bins (11-336)
The Mariners went pitching heavy in this draft, selecting arms with each of their first five picks and eight of their first nine. Some of them, like George Kirby and Isaiah Campbell, I really liked, though others, like Brandon Williamson, I found more questionable. Regardless, the Mariners rebuilt what was an extremely shallow group of pitchers prior to the drafting of Logan Gilbert and trade for Jordan Sheffield last year (with Gilbert and Sheffield moving in opposite directions on prospect charts since then). Interestingly, the Mariners, who are Major League Baseball's northernmost team, went heavy on northern players this year despite highly-drafted players traditionally coming from more southerly areas. In order, their picks originally grew up in: New York, Minnesota, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Washington, New York, and Alberta. Lastly, I want to make a quick mention of them drafting two players from North Greenville University in South Carolina with fantastic baseball names: Kipp Rollings in the 24th round and Utah Jones in the 29th round.
1-20: RHP George Kirby (Elon, my rank: 17)
I really like this pick. George Kirby put up a great sophomore season against mediocre competition at Elon last year with a 2.89 ERA and a 96/27 strikeout to walk ratio, then got better this season by posting a 2.75 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and an absurd 107/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings, again against Elon's mediocre competition. He was also exceptional as a reliever in the elite Cape Cod League posting a 1.38 ERA and a 24/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 innings. Scouts look for "starter traits" when scouting pitchers, those being such things as durability, projectability, command, stuff, depth of arsenal, ability to repeat delivery, etc. Well, in a draft class that was really short on pitching at the very top, Kirby exhibits more starter traits than just about anyone else. He controls the strike zone exceptionally well (that's how you end up with almost 18 strikeouts for every walk), but unlike most command/control types, the Westchester County (NYC suburbs) native has good stuff to boot. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds both a good curveball and a good slider as well as a changeup, and at a sturdy 6'3", he's both durable and projectable. While his stuff doesn't jump off the page, it's legitimate and plays up because of his command. In a game becoming ever more dependent on the three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, and home runs), Kirby will fit right in because in 88 innings he struck out 107, walked six, and allowed three home runs. That whole profile gives him the ceiling of a #2 starter in an Aaron Nola sense, and he comes without much risk just because he has very few holes in his game. He signed for $3.24 million, right at slot.
2-59: LHP Brandon Williamson (Texas Christian, my rank: 104)
While I really liked the Kirby pick, I think this one is a bit riskier. The 6'6" lefty transferred from Northern Iowa Area Community College to TCU this year, then posted a 4.19 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and an 89/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings. Williamson, from the small town of Sherburn, Minnesota, has a lot of the building blocks for future success but has not put it together yet. The phrase "6'6" lefty" make scouts drool, and when he's going right, Williamson sits in the low to mid 90's with a good slider as well as a curve and a changeup from an easy, repeatable delivery, but both his command and the quality of his stuff can be inconsistent. If the Mariners can help iron out whatever is keeping him from being his best every inning, they might have a mid rotation starter on their hands, but he has a lot of work to do for a college pitcher selected in this range. He signed for $925,000, which was $265,000 below slot.
CBB-76: RHP Isaiah Campbell (Arkansas, my rank: 36)
Make that two out of three picks here that I really, really like. Just as Williamson was considered a potential top five rounds pick in 2018, when Williamson was a sophomore at NIACC and Campbell was a junior at Arkansas. However, after posting a 4.26 ERA and a 75/29 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, Campbell elected to return to Fayetteville for his senior season, a decision made easier because with an August birthday, he was young for his class. The decision paid off because he went 12-1 and dropped his ERA to 2.13 while posting a 0.92 WHIP and a 125/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings against tough competition, a result of his vastly improved command. Born in Portugal, the Kansas City native is a 6'4" right hander that sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which he gets good downhill plane on due to his high arm slot. He also adds a good slider that gets swings and misses, though his curveball and changeup still have some catching up to do. His command was an issue last year, but because of his huge improvement there, he now has a better shot at sticking in the rotation and could be a mid-rotation guy. I like the upside here even though he turns 22 in August. He hasn't signed yet, with slot value at $818,200.
3-97: RHP Levi Stoudt (Lehigh, my rank: 134)
Levi Stoudt is an interesting prospect, one who comes with a few holes in his game but who also can look like a legitimate starting pitcher at others. His ERA has gone up significantly over his three seasons at Lehigh, starting at 2.34 as a freshman before jumping to 3.03 as a sophomore, and this year he posted a 3.53 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 69/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.2 innings against mediocre competition. He also survived the Cape Cod League, where he put up a 4.26 ERA and a 26/16 strikeout to walk ratio in 25.1 innings. Stoudt comes in with some arm strength, showing a low 90's fastball that can move into the mid 90's at times, though his secondaries are more inconsistent. His changeup is his best, as it shows some drop and can miss bats, and his slider flashes good shape but can flatten out. He also has a curveball that can look average at times but that can also get loopy. Some question his size at 6'1" and the fact that he never threw more than 65 innings in a season at Lehigh, but he has an athletic delivery and has average command. The Eastern Pennsylvania native has the upside of a #3 or a #4 starter, though he needs to get more consistent with all of his secondaries and prove his durability. Slot value is $599,100 and he has not signed yet.
4-126: RHP Tim Elliott (Georgia, unranked)
Elliott didn't pitch a whole heck of a lot over his first two seasons at Georgia, but the Bulldogs turned him loose in the rotation this year – one of the best rotations in college baseball that also included Cardinals' third rounder Tony Locey and potential 2020 first rounders Emerson Hancock and Cole Wilcox – and he posted a 2.38 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 72/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.2 innings. Elliott has fairly similar stuff to Stoudt, starting with a low 90's fastball and adding a good changeup as well as a slider and a curveball, neither of which are swing and miss pitches at this point. He also has average command, so he's not a control artist but he's also not wild. Hailing from the outskirts of the Atlanta suburbs, Elliott is 6'1" like Stoudt and while his big junior season at Georgia make him the more proven commodity, his delivery has a lot of moving parts in contrast to Stoudt's easy, athletic delivery. Elliott probably has less upside but he has a chance at being a #4 or a #5 starter. He signed for $400,000, which was $51,800 below slot, and he has thrown four shutout innings over his first two appearances at short season Everett, striking out six while allowing only three baserunners.
5-156: 3B Austin Shenton (Florida International, unranked)
After taking five straight pitchers, the Mariners pivoted to a bat in the fifth round, grabbing FIU third baseman Austin Shenton. Shenton opened eyes with an excellent .349/.450/.490 run through the Cape Cod League that also included four home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio, though he started slowly this season for FIU before heating up as the season wore on. In the end, his .330/.425/.513 line with seven home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games looked pretty good but was not quite up to expectations against Conference-USA pitching. Despite a swing that includes a deep hand load and a bit of an upward angle on his swing, he's actually hit over power and held a reasonably low 16.3% strikeout rate this season. The strong run through the Cape Cod League helps project him for high averages and some walks to give him strong on-base percentages, though he'll likely never hit more than 10-15 home runs per season at his best. His defense is also questionable, as he is just adequate at third base and may be forced to another position. Overall, he profiles as a bat-first bench player. Interestingly, despite playing at FIU, Shenton is from the Seattle area, making this a homecoming for him. He signed at slot for $336,600 and is slashing .231/.333/.269 with eight strikeouts to one walk over his first seven games at Everett.
6-186: RHP Michael Limoncelli (Horseheads HS [NY], my rank: 103)
Limoncelli's profile is pretty straightforward; he's a cold weather arm from Upstate New York with two potential plus pitches who is old for his class and is recovering from Tommy John surgery. The 6'2" righty sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a very good two-plane curveball, both of which he can command. Cold weather arms like Limoncelli, who grew up an hour west of Binghamton, typically have less development under their belts due to less outside practice and are therefore given the benefit of the doubt when being compared against players from places like Florida and Texas, though the fact that Limoncelli already turned 19 in May probably takes some of that slack away from him. He has a ton of upside and could be a mid-rotation starter, but he also comes with a lot of risk given that he won't get into professional games until he's 20 years old next spring or summer. Slot value is $259,400, but it may take more than that to buy him out of his Coastal Carolina commitment.
7-216: LHP Adam Macko (Vauxhall Academy [AB], unranked)
A round after popping Limoncelli from Upstate New York, the Mariners went for an even colder-weather arm in Adam Macko, who grew up west of Edmonton, Alberta but attended the Vauxhall Academy of Baseball in rural Vauxhall, Alberta. That's cold. Anyways, Macko does not throw hard – his fastball rarely scrapes 90 – but the 6' lefty has excellent feel to spot all of his pitches, including his offspeeds, around the zone. Those offspeeds are just average for now, as he shows feel to spin a curveball with good shape but without much power as well as a decent changeup. He has a lot of work to do if he wants to crack a major league rotation, but if he can maintain this command, he should be able to succeed by simply bumping his fastball from the 86-89 range to the 88-92 range and sharpening his secondaries a little, obviously easier said than done. The Mariners are hoping that getting him off the windswept Northern Plains will help. Slot value is $203,400, and he has a commitment to Purdue that he has not yet been signed away from.
11-336: C Carter Bins (Fresno State, my rank: 113)
Bins was talented enough to go in the top five rounds, but signability pushed him here to the eleventh, where he signed for a fifth round bonus of $350,000. He's a defense-first catcher who slashed .301/.372/.526 as a sophomore at Fresno State before dropping to .280/.385/.427 with six home runs and a 48/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games this year. He shows some loft in his swing but the bat speed is just average, so his power will likely be mostly to the pull side, but he does have a track record for hitting the ball hard. His real calling card is his defense, as he is an all-around asset behind the plate that will not only stick back there but provide positive value without much of a doubt. If he can hit at all, he'll land a back-up job at the major league level, and if he can start to generate a little more power while maintaining his on-base percentage, he could conceivably wind up a starter. However, the bat has a bit of a ways to go if he does indeed plan to end up starting. The Fairfield, California native's $350,000 bonus counts for $225,000 against the Mariners' bonus pool, but their savings on Williamson and Elliott as well as tenth rounder Kyle Hill help them absorb that. Through five games with Elliott and Shenton at Everett, he's slashing .211/.318/.211 with ten strikeouts to three walks.
Friday, May 31, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: College RHP's
Teams love advanced college pitchers and are quick to take them early, yet this group of right handers is thin at the top and none are threatening to go in the top five picks, with only three looking like locks for the first round. However, once you get past the thin first tier, there are quite a few names to choose from, and they come in about as many shapes and sizes as you could hope for.
Tier I: Jackson Rutledge, Alek Manoah, George Kirby
There's no debate that this is the first tier, as you would be hard pressed to find anyone listed here ranked below anyone listed in the next tier. Jackson Rutledge surpassed Carter Stewart as the top junior college arm available, and depending on who you ask, some (myself included) would say he's the best college right hander available period. Rutledge transferred from Arkansas to San Jacinto CC in Houston, and the results could not have possibly been any better for the 6'8" righty. The St. Louis native has bumped his fastball consistently into the mid 90's, topping out in the upper 90's with regularity and missing plenty of bats. It's not just the fastball, though, as he spins a curve and a slider to knock hitters off balance, both of which could be plus pitches. He needs to work on his changeup and command, as well as his overall consistency, but his upside is perhaps the highest among any pitcher in this draft. He should go in the top half of the first round. Alek Manoah has been downright incredible for West Virginia this year, posting a 1.85 ERA, an 0.88 WHIP, and a nasty 135/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings heading into the NCAA Tournament. Back in April, he had a three start stretch against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Kansas in which he tossed 26 shutout innings on just ten hits, no walks, and 41 strikeouts; that'll get it done. The big-bodied 6'6" Florida native sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, and his slider has improved into a true strikeout pitch while his changeup has become a usable third pitch and his command has improved as well. Still, Manoah needs to further refine his secondary pitches and command if he wants to be an ace or #2 guy, and while he has much less reliever risk than he did a few months ago, he's not the complete package quite yet as a starter. Like Rutledge, he'll go in the top half of the first round. Lastly, George Kirby is a hair behind Rutledge and Manoah, but he's a great pitcher in his own right, having finished his junior season with a 2.75 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 107/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings. He is actually the safest bet to remain a starter in this entire draft, combining a strong 6'3" frame with great command of a full arsenal. He throws in the low 90's but can reach back for more when he needs it, adding a good curveball and slider as well as a changeup. In today's game, where the three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, home runs) are emphasized, Kirby is especially dominant, having struck out 107 while allowing just six walks and three home runs all season. He lacks the ceiling of Rutledge or Manoah but projects as a strong #3 starter with less risk than other arms, and he projects to go in the middle of the first round, perhaps in the 15-20 range just a few picks behind the other two.
Tier II: Seth Johnson, Matt Canterino, Isaiah Campbell, John Doxakis, Drey Jameson
There is a big drop off after Rutledge, Manoah, and Kirby, with the second tier all coming with their fair share of concerns and little probability that more than one will be a first rounder. Seth Johnson is the most likely of that crew to end up there, raising his stock astronomically in the last calendar year. At this time last year, he was a light hitting shortstop at Louisburg College in North Carolina, but the wicked fastball/slider combination he displayed in his transition to the mound gives him a high ceiling. He posted a 4.72 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 77/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings against relatively weak competition in the Big South, but it was his first time pitching and he showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a good slider and a usable curveball and changeup. His command isn't pinpoint but he was able to find the strike zone consistently, and he should continue to improve in that respect down the road. With no track record to speak of, he's a risky pick, but he won't turn 21 until September and the 6'1" righty has a high ceiling if he can continue on his current trajectory. Over at Rice, Matt Canterino put up a second straight strong season by posting a 2.90 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 112/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 93 innings heading into the tournament. He's 6'2" with long arms and a bit of a funky delivery, but he repeats it well and throws plenty of strikes. Stuff-wise, he sits in the low 90's and adds a pair of very good breaking balls, though in pro ball he'll need to work on his changeup. He currently has mid-rotation starter projection but could be a #2 if he continues to command everything well, though the effort in his delivery could push him to the bullpen. He figures to go in the comp round or early second round. Isaiah Campbell could have gone in the top five rounds last year, but he was young for the class and stayed an extra year at Arkansas. After posting a 4.26 ERA in 2018, he dropped it to 2.50 in 2019 heading into the tournament with a 0.96 WHIP and a 97/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings. He still throws in the low to mid 90's from a high release point with a good slider, but what was fringy command last year has been tightened up to average this year. He adds a curveball and an interesting splitter, both of which need work, and the development of those pitches will likely be the difference as to whether he ends up a #3 starter or a power reliever. He'll probably be drafted in the same range as Canterino. John Doxakis has had an exceptional SEC career, and he capped it off with a 1.84 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 106/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings for Texas A&M this year. Doxakis is 6'4" but only throws around 90 with his fastball, instead relying on a good slider and better command to keep hitters off balance. He's got a little bit of effort in his delivery and while it doesn't impact his ability to spot his pitches, it creates some questions as to whether he can stick in the rotation long term. Still, he's built like a starter and has strong makeup, so he could add some velocity and end up a solid #3 or #4 starter long-term. He won't be 21 until August and he figures to go in the same range as Canterino and Campbell, but I like the other two just a bit better. Lastly, Ball State's Drey Jameson is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft, having posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 146/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings against relatively weaker competition in the MAC. He's only six feet tall and skinny at that, but he sits in the mid 90's and holds that velocity consistently, adding a pair of very good breaking balls. Jameson's live arm could help teams dream on a Sixto Sanchez-type player (though Sanchez has better command and ironically is almost a year younger), though like Sanchez he faces durability concerns due to his slight frame. His ability to hold his fastball velocity does give him a strong shot to remain a starter, and he could go anywhere from the comp round to the end of the second round.
Tier III: Ryan Zeferjahn, Ryne Nelson, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Hess, Noah Song
Four of the five of these guys face serious reliever questions, and I find it unlikely that more than one of them aside from Song ends up a big league starter. Ryan Zeferjahn has perhaps the best shot after posting a 3.97 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings for Kansas, though he got blown up for nine runs in his last start against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament. Zeferjahn was a top three rounds prospect coming out of high school in Topeka and the scouting report is roughly the same now, as the 6'4" righty can sit in the mid 90's and add a very good slider, but his awkward mechanics impact his command and his consistency (he had tossed 7.1 shutout innings against the same Kansas State team a week earlier). Because of this, he probably only has a 50/50 shot at remaining in the rotation, though his fastball/slider combination could play up in the bullpen and be very effective. He should go in the second or third round. Ryne Nelson is more likely than not going to be a reliever, especially after a tough stretch late in the season. Nelson had a 4.29 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 104/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings for Oregon, showing premium mid to upper 90's velocity and a good slider from an athletic 6'4" frame. However, his poor command and lack of a reliable third pitch cause those first two to play down in the rotation, but in the bullpen he has the potential to hit 100 MPH. He just needs to clean up his command, and he'll probably be a third round pick. Ryan Pepiot had an up and down season for Butler, posting a 3.92 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 126/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings. This showed a little bit of regression from his strong 2018 (2.62 ERA, 101/32 K/BB), and he gets by with a four pitch mix headlined by a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup. His two breaking balls, combined with that changeup, helped him carve up Big East hitters, but they're a little bit too soft to be strikeout pitches against pro hitters. He also tends to lose his command of the strike zone from time to time, so a move to the bullpen might help him with his consistency and enable him to focus on either his curve or his slider instead of both, though pro coaching could make him a #4 starter. He looks like a third rounder. Zack Hess was eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and his scouting report has not changed much, but he has been as inconsistent as anybody this year with a 4.70 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 78/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings. Hess is 6'6" and can sit in the mid to upper 90's as a reliever, but he's been used mostly as a starter, where his fastball is more low to mid 90's. He also has a very good slider that can be a true out pitch out of the bullpen, but his mediocre command and lack of a reliable third pitch kept him from succeeding in the LSU rotation. There is still some talk of running him out as a starter in pro ball, but it seems like that experiment has played its course and he should become a full time reliever, where his fastball/slider combination could make him a strong set-up man and help him get to the big leagues quickly. He should be a third round pick. Lastly, Noah Song has one of the most unique profiles in college baseball. The 6'4" senior put up video game numbers at Navy this season (11-1, 1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 161/31 K/BB in 94 IP), but he's required by law to serve two years in the Navy before he can pitch professionally. On one hand, it's hard to pass on a guy who throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good slider as part of a full arsenal which he commands somewhat well, but on the other, he might not get to pitch professionally until after his 24th birthday. A team willing to be patient with him could get a fringe-first round arm somewhere later in the draft, so where he ends up is completely up in the air.
Others: Ryan Garcia, Ryan Jensen, Alec Marsh, Tyler Baum, Hunter Brown
*Carter Stewart has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and will not be draft-eligible. He would have fit into Tier II.
Tier I: Jackson Rutledge, Alek Manoah, George Kirby
There's no debate that this is the first tier, as you would be hard pressed to find anyone listed here ranked below anyone listed in the next tier. Jackson Rutledge surpassed Carter Stewart as the top junior college arm available, and depending on who you ask, some (myself included) would say he's the best college right hander available period. Rutledge transferred from Arkansas to San Jacinto CC in Houston, and the results could not have possibly been any better for the 6'8" righty. The St. Louis native has bumped his fastball consistently into the mid 90's, topping out in the upper 90's with regularity and missing plenty of bats. It's not just the fastball, though, as he spins a curve and a slider to knock hitters off balance, both of which could be plus pitches. He needs to work on his changeup and command, as well as his overall consistency, but his upside is perhaps the highest among any pitcher in this draft. He should go in the top half of the first round. Alek Manoah has been downright incredible for West Virginia this year, posting a 1.85 ERA, an 0.88 WHIP, and a nasty 135/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings heading into the NCAA Tournament. Back in April, he had a three start stretch against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Kansas in which he tossed 26 shutout innings on just ten hits, no walks, and 41 strikeouts; that'll get it done. The big-bodied 6'6" Florida native sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, and his slider has improved into a true strikeout pitch while his changeup has become a usable third pitch and his command has improved as well. Still, Manoah needs to further refine his secondary pitches and command if he wants to be an ace or #2 guy, and while he has much less reliever risk than he did a few months ago, he's not the complete package quite yet as a starter. Like Rutledge, he'll go in the top half of the first round. Lastly, George Kirby is a hair behind Rutledge and Manoah, but he's a great pitcher in his own right, having finished his junior season with a 2.75 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 107/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings. He is actually the safest bet to remain a starter in this entire draft, combining a strong 6'3" frame with great command of a full arsenal. He throws in the low 90's but can reach back for more when he needs it, adding a good curveball and slider as well as a changeup. In today's game, where the three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, home runs) are emphasized, Kirby is especially dominant, having struck out 107 while allowing just six walks and three home runs all season. He lacks the ceiling of Rutledge or Manoah but projects as a strong #3 starter with less risk than other arms, and he projects to go in the middle of the first round, perhaps in the 15-20 range just a few picks behind the other two.
Tier II: Seth Johnson, Matt Canterino, Isaiah Campbell, John Doxakis, Drey Jameson
There is a big drop off after Rutledge, Manoah, and Kirby, with the second tier all coming with their fair share of concerns and little probability that more than one will be a first rounder. Seth Johnson is the most likely of that crew to end up there, raising his stock astronomically in the last calendar year. At this time last year, he was a light hitting shortstop at Louisburg College in North Carolina, but the wicked fastball/slider combination he displayed in his transition to the mound gives him a high ceiling. He posted a 4.72 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 77/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings against relatively weak competition in the Big South, but it was his first time pitching and he showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a good slider and a usable curveball and changeup. His command isn't pinpoint but he was able to find the strike zone consistently, and he should continue to improve in that respect down the road. With no track record to speak of, he's a risky pick, but he won't turn 21 until September and the 6'1" righty has a high ceiling if he can continue on his current trajectory. Over at Rice, Matt Canterino put up a second straight strong season by posting a 2.90 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 112/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 93 innings heading into the tournament. He's 6'2" with long arms and a bit of a funky delivery, but he repeats it well and throws plenty of strikes. Stuff-wise, he sits in the low 90's and adds a pair of very good breaking balls, though in pro ball he'll need to work on his changeup. He currently has mid-rotation starter projection but could be a #2 if he continues to command everything well, though the effort in his delivery could push him to the bullpen. He figures to go in the comp round or early second round. Isaiah Campbell could have gone in the top five rounds last year, but he was young for the class and stayed an extra year at Arkansas. After posting a 4.26 ERA in 2018, he dropped it to 2.50 in 2019 heading into the tournament with a 0.96 WHIP and a 97/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings. He still throws in the low to mid 90's from a high release point with a good slider, but what was fringy command last year has been tightened up to average this year. He adds a curveball and an interesting splitter, both of which need work, and the development of those pitches will likely be the difference as to whether he ends up a #3 starter or a power reliever. He'll probably be drafted in the same range as Canterino. John Doxakis has had an exceptional SEC career, and he capped it off with a 1.84 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 106/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings for Texas A&M this year. Doxakis is 6'4" but only throws around 90 with his fastball, instead relying on a good slider and better command to keep hitters off balance. He's got a little bit of effort in his delivery and while it doesn't impact his ability to spot his pitches, it creates some questions as to whether he can stick in the rotation long term. Still, he's built like a starter and has strong makeup, so he could add some velocity and end up a solid #3 or #4 starter long-term. He won't be 21 until August and he figures to go in the same range as Canterino and Campbell, but I like the other two just a bit better. Lastly, Ball State's Drey Jameson is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft, having posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 146/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings against relatively weaker competition in the MAC. He's only six feet tall and skinny at that, but he sits in the mid 90's and holds that velocity consistently, adding a pair of very good breaking balls. Jameson's live arm could help teams dream on a Sixto Sanchez-type player (though Sanchez has better command and ironically is almost a year younger), though like Sanchez he faces durability concerns due to his slight frame. His ability to hold his fastball velocity does give him a strong shot to remain a starter, and he could go anywhere from the comp round to the end of the second round.
Tier III: Ryan Zeferjahn, Ryne Nelson, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Hess, Noah Song
Four of the five of these guys face serious reliever questions, and I find it unlikely that more than one of them aside from Song ends up a big league starter. Ryan Zeferjahn has perhaps the best shot after posting a 3.97 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings for Kansas, though he got blown up for nine runs in his last start against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament. Zeferjahn was a top three rounds prospect coming out of high school in Topeka and the scouting report is roughly the same now, as the 6'4" righty can sit in the mid 90's and add a very good slider, but his awkward mechanics impact his command and his consistency (he had tossed 7.1 shutout innings against the same Kansas State team a week earlier). Because of this, he probably only has a 50/50 shot at remaining in the rotation, though his fastball/slider combination could play up in the bullpen and be very effective. He should go in the second or third round. Ryne Nelson is more likely than not going to be a reliever, especially after a tough stretch late in the season. Nelson had a 4.29 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 104/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings for Oregon, showing premium mid to upper 90's velocity and a good slider from an athletic 6'4" frame. However, his poor command and lack of a reliable third pitch cause those first two to play down in the rotation, but in the bullpen he has the potential to hit 100 MPH. He just needs to clean up his command, and he'll probably be a third round pick. Ryan Pepiot had an up and down season for Butler, posting a 3.92 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 126/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings. This showed a little bit of regression from his strong 2018 (2.62 ERA, 101/32 K/BB), and he gets by with a four pitch mix headlined by a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup. His two breaking balls, combined with that changeup, helped him carve up Big East hitters, but they're a little bit too soft to be strikeout pitches against pro hitters. He also tends to lose his command of the strike zone from time to time, so a move to the bullpen might help him with his consistency and enable him to focus on either his curve or his slider instead of both, though pro coaching could make him a #4 starter. He looks like a third rounder. Zack Hess was eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and his scouting report has not changed much, but he has been as inconsistent as anybody this year with a 4.70 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 78/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings. Hess is 6'6" and can sit in the mid to upper 90's as a reliever, but he's been used mostly as a starter, where his fastball is more low to mid 90's. He also has a very good slider that can be a true out pitch out of the bullpen, but his mediocre command and lack of a reliable third pitch kept him from succeeding in the LSU rotation. There is still some talk of running him out as a starter in pro ball, but it seems like that experiment has played its course and he should become a full time reliever, where his fastball/slider combination could make him a strong set-up man and help him get to the big leagues quickly. He should be a third round pick. Lastly, Noah Song has one of the most unique profiles in college baseball. The 6'4" senior put up video game numbers at Navy this season (11-1, 1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 161/31 K/BB in 94 IP), but he's required by law to serve two years in the Navy before he can pitch professionally. On one hand, it's hard to pass on a guy who throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good slider as part of a full arsenal which he commands somewhat well, but on the other, he might not get to pitch professionally until after his 24th birthday. A team willing to be patient with him could get a fringe-first round arm somewhere later in the draft, so where he ends up is completely up in the air.
Others: Ryan Garcia, Ryan Jensen, Alec Marsh, Tyler Baum, Hunter Brown
*Carter Stewart has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and will not be draft-eligible. He would have fit into Tier II.
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