1-19: OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
2-52: RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State
2C-69: OF Isaiah Greene, Corona HS (CA)
3-91: SS Anthony Walters, San Diego State
4-120: C Matthew Dyer, Arizona
5-150: RHP Eric Orze, New Orleans
The Mets were aggressive at the top of the draft and went more conservative later on, and I think the end product was a really nice draft class. I loved each of their first three picks, netting them two speedy Southern California high school outfielders with offensive upside in addition to a recovering TJ arm who has clear first round talent. JT Ginn, the TJ arm, will require a large over slot bonus, so the Mets had to save money later in the draft, signing their third and fifth round picks to a combined $40,000 – adding $964,400 in pool space to reel in Ginn. The Mets pulled in a lot of talent here, especially in those first three picks, and this should give a jolt to their middling farm system. Also, if you live on the North Shore of Long Island, they signed your congressman's son in the undrafted free agent market.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-19: OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS, CA (my rank: 15)
The Mets started off their draft with a bang, picking up probably the most famous name on the high school circuit. Crow-Armstrong, a product of the elite Studio City private school in the Hollywood Hills that once boasted Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in the same rotation at the same time, first emerged onto the draft scene as an underclassman. A lackluster summer in 2019 set his stock back a bit, but he came out of the gate hot in 2020 and started to rebuild. Crow-Armstrong has long been known for his defense, as he's a natural in center field that makes his plus speed play up with great jumps and direct routes to the ball. He'll stick in center field, no doubt, and provide a ton of value there. The bat is a bit more of a question mark, but the production he showed in the shortened 2020 certainly helped. He's a 6'1" left handed hitter with a really loose, contact-oriented swing, but there is some power projection in there and I could see him hitting 20 home runs or more per season at his ceiling. A more realistic expectation might be 15-20, but he also projects for high on-base percentages because he's an advanced hitter who makes very consistent contact. Combine that with plus defense, and you have yourself a heck of a ballplayer. I'm very optimistic on Crow-Armstrong and I think the Mets will be very happy with this pick (as long as they don't trade him to the Mariners to join Jarred Kelenic). He signed away from a Vanderbilt commitment right at slot for $3.36 million and I think he'll be worth every penny. Pre-draft profile here.
2-52: RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (my rank: 23)
There is a good chance the Mets get fantastic value at this spot, even if Ginn does sign over slot. He was actually the 30th overall pick by the Dodgers out of Brandon High School in the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, but he didn't sign and instead headed to Mississippi State. There, his progress has been tremendous. When he got to campus, Ginn was a power-armed freshman who could run his fastball up to 99 with a promising slider, but he had a high effort delivery, a bit of a stocky frame, and was inconsistent with his secondary stuff and command: reliever qualities. However, the progress Ginn made in that freshman season was remarkable, as he leaned out a bit, got more consistent with the slider that is now a plus pitch, and developed a legitimate changeup. Not only that, he smoothed out his delivery a bit, threw more strikes, and had great results for a freshman in the SEC: 8-4, 3.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 105/19 K/BB in 86.1 IP. I liked him as high as the top ten picks earlier in the spring, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and required Tommy John surgery, clouding his status. Still, TJ isn't nearly as scary as it once was, and once he bounces back healthy, I think we have a legitimate impact starting pitcher on our hands, one who could even be an ace. He still has some work to do in getting more consistent with his delivery and hitting spots within the zone, but he's miles ahead of where he was in highs school and should continue to develop in that direction. In the Mets system, he'll join his college teammate and 2019 fourth rounder Jake Mangum. Slot value is $1.4 million at the 52nd pick, but the Mets have nearly $2.6 million left in their bonus pool and I expect him to take most if not all of it. Pre-draft profile here.
2C-69: OF Isaiah Greene, Corona HS, CA (my rank: 50)
More great value for the Mets here at the Zack Wheeler compensation pick, especially since Isaiah Greene signed under slot. Another LA-area high schooler, Greene isn't too, too dissimilar to Pete Crow-Armstrong in that he has a really wide array of ways he can impact the game. The most notable is his plus to plus-plus speed, as he could easily beat the already fast Crow-Armstrong in a foot race and deploys that speed well on both sides of the ball. He's not quite as instinctual a defender as PCA, but he's another true center field type because the instincts are plenty good enough and of course, there's the speed. He shows a really sweet swing from the left side – it's quick and loose, gets some nice loft on there, and consistently stays under control. He makes plenty of hard contact for now, but it's easy to see him growing into average or even slightly above average raw power as he fills out his 6'1" frame. That gives him a peak of perhaps 15-20 home runs per season with plenty of doubles and triples in addition to good on-base percentages, with lots of stolen bases to go with them. I really like the overall package that Greene brings, and if both he makes it along with PCA and the aforementioned Jake Mangum, we might never see a baseball drop in the Citi Field outfield. Greene signed away from a Missouri commitment for $850,000, which was $79,800 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.
3-91: SS Anthony Walters, San Diego State (unranked)
Yet another Los Angeles-area product, Walters bounced around a bit during his college career, starting at Cal before spending a year at Mount San Antonio CC and subsequently transferring to San Diego State. After raking at Mount San Antonio, he was off to a decent start in San Diego, slashing .271/.333/.356 with a home run and an 18/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 16 games in 2020. He's an athletic guy at 6'1", generating some decent power from a line drive right handed swing and good extension. He can be a bit aggressive at the plate at times and doesn't come with the rock-solid plate discipline you tend to see in these money saving picks, so the Mets will have to help him control the strike zone a bit better in pro ball. The good news is he's a glove-first guy who can stick at shortstop, so you can project a utility infield future on him pretty easily. He's kind of an interesting tweener prospect with the bat, not quite a high ceiling type and not quite a high floor type, so providing that value with the glove is really helpful to his profile. As a redshirt junior who will turn 23 over the offseason, Walters didn't have much leverage and signed for just $20,000, which saved $627,300 from the bonus pool.
4-120: C Matthew Dyer, Arizona (unranked)
Dyer grew up in the Phoenix area but started his college career at Oregon, then transferred back to his home state after one season. After sitting out the 2018 season due to transfer rules, he put up a huge 2019 in which he slashed .393/.480/.571 with four home runs and a 28/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, but he priced himself out of the draft to return to Arizona for his redshirt junior year. The results weren't quite the same in 2020, as he slashed just .220/.329/.441 with three home runs and a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games, and he wound up with the Mets in the fourth round. Tall and skinny at a listed 6'4" and 185 pounds, he shows some power generated with his long arms and legs, while a very sound approach at the plate allows him to make consistent contact. It's a pretty balanced offensive profile overall, projecting for maybe 15-20 home runs a year with good on-base percentages at his absolute ceiling, though the key will be continuing to get stronger and fill out that frame. More likely is a super-utility profile in which he provides maybe 5-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, seeing time all over the diamond. The Mets drafted him as a catcher, but he's probably too lanky to stick back there, as he has a good arm but is just so-so when it comes to the finer aspects of catching. He also has experience at second base, third base, and in the outfield, so if he does hit enough to start, he'll probably just end up wherever the Mets need him. Even though he's a redshirt junior, he's relatively young for a fourth year player and only turns 22 in July. Dyer signed for $350,000, which was $128,300 below slot.
5-150: RHP Eric Orze, New Orleans (unranked)
If you're looking for a feel-good story to root for, here it is. Originally from the Chicago area, Orze seems to like the Gulf Coast better and started his career at Northwest Florida State Community College before transferring to the University of New Orleans. He hasn't pitched a whole lot, though, because he's fought and beaten cancer – twice. First testicular, then skin. Now a fifth year senior, he'll turn 23 in August but the right now package is a good one. He started off well in 2020, posting a 2.75 ERA and a 29/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings, and the Mets would like to see that fresh arm hit the ground running in pro ball. He has a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch as high as 97 in shorter stints, adding a very good splitter with great depth down in the zone, an average hard slider with good horizontal movement, and an average cutter that's a little firmer than his slider. He has a skinny 6'3" frame and throws plenty of strikes, but he hasn't proven he can hold his stuff deep into games or deep into the season. That, combined with his age, means that he might be ticketed to the bullpen, though the Mets would love to see him continue to add strength as he gets farther from his cancer battles and potentially surprise some people as a #4 starter. In the bullpen, his fastball could be more consistently in the mid 90's and could play really well off his splitter, and he could move more quickly, which would be useful given his age. He signed for just $20,000, saving $337,100 off of slot value.
Undrafted: OF Joe Suozzi, Boston College (unranked)
Here's a hometown kid for the Mets, and a congressman's son no less. Joe Suozzi, son of U.S. House of Representatives member Thomas Suozzi, grew up in Glen Cove and attended Chaminade High School in Mineola, just twenty minutes west of Citi Field on Long Island. He's gotten better and better throughout his career at Boston College after walking on as a sophomore, capping it off with a great start to his junior year in which he slashed .414/.471/.638 with one home run and a 16/8 strikeout to walk ratio while picking up at least one hit in 14 out of 15 games. That wasn't a weak schedule, either, as it included weekend series against Arizona State and Clemson and he went a combined 11-26 (.423 AVG) with three doubles and two walks in those six games. He's an aggressive hitter that doesn't draw many walks, instead swinging early and often in the count to try to do damage. It's worked better and better for him at BC as his hit tool has developed, and he's got some raw power in his 6'2" frame as well. He'll need to cut down the aggressiveness in pro ball or else advanced pitchers will carve him up, but he showed a lot of impact in the shortened 2020 season and the Mets think the bat will be potent enough to work.
Other undrafted
RHP Kody Davidson, Tennessee (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 8/0 K/BB in 5.1 innings)
RHP Austin Faith, Lamar (0-1, 9.28 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 6/8 K/BB in 10.2 innings)
RHP Dylan Hall, Central Oklahoma (4-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 45/8 K/BB in 30 innings)
OF Brandon McIlwaine, California (2 HR, .258/.309/.435, 2 SB, 22/5 K/BB in 20 games)
RHP Drake Nightengale, South Alabama (1-0, 3.09 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 39/10 K/BB in 23.1 innings)
Showing posts with label JT Ginn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JT Ginn. Show all posts
Monday, June 29, 2020
Monday, June 8, 2020
2020 Draft Preview: Who Could the Nationals Take at #22?
As a Nationals fan, I've put a lot of thought into the direction I'd like to see the Nationals go at pick #22. Predicting who they will take is pretty much guesswork, but as fans, we can look at the most likely options, choose one to latch onto, and hope. For context, these have been the Nationals' last five first round picks:
2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)
Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.
Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.
Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.
Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.
LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.
2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)
Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.
Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.
Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.
Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.
LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: JT Ginn
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/20/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-0, 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 4/2 K/BB in 3 IP
Ginn lasted just three innings into the 2020 season before going down with Tommy John surgery, but he remains one of the top arms in a loaded class with nobody else playing anyways. A top prospect coming out of Brandon High School in the Jackson, Mississippi suburbs, Ginn went 30th overall to the Dodgers in 2018 but ended up in Starkville after the two could not come to an agreement on a contract. The Dodgers were buying the upside in his powerful right arm, though at the time, he had significant reliever risk. He dramatically elevated his profile with a fantastic freshman 2019, putting up a 3.36 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 103/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings against Mississippi State's tough schedule.
In high school, Ginn was a power arm with a big fastball and a good but inconsistent slider. That, plus some effort in his delivery, caused many to peg him as a reliever. However, a year at Mississippi State did absolute wonders for him. He still has that same big fastball, sitting in the low to mid 90's deep into his starts with the ability to reach back for the upper 90's. That slider has gotten more consistent and is a plus pitch more often than not, coming in with both velocity and late, downward bite that makes it very tough to square up. His changeup is also significantly improved, rounding out his arsenal with an exclamation point. His delivery is also better, and he's throwing with significantly less effort than he was a year ago. That has helped his command improve from fringe-average to safely above, making him a truly complete pitcher.
Ginn was hurdling towards the top ten picks before he got hurt, but his trajectory was so strongly upward that he still fits firmly in the first round despite the surgery. Especially now that the college season was cancelled and the pro season is in jeopardy, his Tommy John surgery may alter his development barely any more than the lost season does for other players. He projects as a #2 starter at the major league level with a very good chance of cracking a rotation either way, and if you can't tell, he's one of my favorite arms in this class. I'll admit that I wasn't his biggest fan in high school, but he's a different pitcher now and I was wrong. As a draft-eligible sophomore (his May birthday is more appropriate for a college junior), he has a lot of leverage, which he may be inclined to use if enough teams are scared off by his surgery. With three potential plus pitches, improving command, and a clean delivery, he's one of the most complete pitchers in a class brimming with pitching, and he's going to be very, very good.
Carving up Florida hitters in 2019
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/20/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-0, 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 4/2 K/BB in 3 IP
Ginn lasted just three innings into the 2020 season before going down with Tommy John surgery, but he remains one of the top arms in a loaded class with nobody else playing anyways. A top prospect coming out of Brandon High School in the Jackson, Mississippi suburbs, Ginn went 30th overall to the Dodgers in 2018 but ended up in Starkville after the two could not come to an agreement on a contract. The Dodgers were buying the upside in his powerful right arm, though at the time, he had significant reliever risk. He dramatically elevated his profile with a fantastic freshman 2019, putting up a 3.36 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 103/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings against Mississippi State's tough schedule.
In high school, Ginn was a power arm with a big fastball and a good but inconsistent slider. That, plus some effort in his delivery, caused many to peg him as a reliever. However, a year at Mississippi State did absolute wonders for him. He still has that same big fastball, sitting in the low to mid 90's deep into his starts with the ability to reach back for the upper 90's. That slider has gotten more consistent and is a plus pitch more often than not, coming in with both velocity and late, downward bite that makes it very tough to square up. His changeup is also significantly improved, rounding out his arsenal with an exclamation point. His delivery is also better, and he's throwing with significantly less effort than he was a year ago. That has helped his command improve from fringe-average to safely above, making him a truly complete pitcher.
Ginn was hurdling towards the top ten picks before he got hurt, but his trajectory was so strongly upward that he still fits firmly in the first round despite the surgery. Especially now that the college season was cancelled and the pro season is in jeopardy, his Tommy John surgery may alter his development barely any more than the lost season does for other players. He projects as a #2 starter at the major league level with a very good chance of cracking a rotation either way, and if you can't tell, he's one of my favorite arms in this class. I'll admit that I wasn't his biggest fan in high school, but he's a different pitcher now and I was wrong. As a draft-eligible sophomore (his May birthday is more appropriate for a college junior), he has a lot of leverage, which he may be inclined to use if enough teams are scared off by his surgery. With three potential plus pitches, improving command, and a clean delivery, he's one of the most complete pitchers in a class brimming with pitching, and he's going to be very, very good.
Carving up Florida hitters in 2019
Monday, February 10, 2020
2020 Draft Preview: Ten Prospects Who Could Go #1
The college baseball season is set to start on February 14th, while various high school leagues start around the same time. That means one thing for MLB fans – it's time to start thinking about the draft. The Detroit Tigers have the first overall pick for the second time in three seasons, two years after they selected right hander Casey Mize out of Auburn. I'm not big into the guessing game of who teams like or whether they might go under slot, but that being said, here are ten players that have a shot at hearing their name called first overall.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.
The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.
- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.
- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.
- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.
The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.
- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.
- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.
- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.
Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.
- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.
- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.
- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.
Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.
The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.
- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.
- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.
- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.
The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.
- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.
- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.
- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.
Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.
- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.
- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.
- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.
Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.
Sunday, July 15, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers
First 5 rounds: J.T. Ginn (1-30), Michael Grove (2-68), John Rooney (3-104), Braydon Fisher (4-134), Devin Mann (5-164)
Also notable: Josh McLain (9-284), Deacon Liput (10-314), Niko Hulsizer (18-554), Tre Todd (21-644)
By failing to sign first round pick J.T. Ginn, the Dodgers ended up with a pretty light draft class at the top, though they did find some gems later on. I really like some of their later draft picks, and I think they did a good job of getting lots of different kinds of players. They grabbed pitchers with their first four picks but actually leaned a little more on hitters as the draft went on, and came together with a respectable draft class when they easily could have not done so with just two of the first 103 picks, especially when the first one didn't even sign.
1-30: RHP J.T. Ginn (my rank: 56)
I didn't like this pick at the time, but Ginn didn't sign anyways so it doesn't really matter. Instead, he'll head to Mississippi State, where he'll be eligible for the 2020 draft as a sophomore. He's one of two unsigned first round picks heading to Mississippi State, where he'll join the Braves' eighth overall pick, Carter Stewart. Ginn should be an immediate contributor there, as his fastball already sits in the mid 90's and his slider can be a plus pitch, and he commands both well enough. However, his delivery is fairly high effort and most see him as a reliever at the next level, where he could be a closer with that fastball/slider combination. High school relief prospects are an interesting group, as they don't have the ceilings of many other high schoolers but also can't move through the minors in the blink of an eye like college relievers, though Ginn does have an outside chance at being able to start if he can develop a changeup and prove he can maintain his velocity and command deep into games. He's very old for the class, having turned 19 in May.
2-68: RHP Michael Grove (unranked)
This Michael Grove pick kind of came out of nowhere, as he was unranked on MLB.com's top 200 and Fangraphs' top 130 (as well as their 52 "other" college pitchers), and came in at #271 on the Baseball America 500. That said, upon looking back over his scouting reports, this is good digging by the Dodgers. He was good as a freshman at West Virginia University in 2016 (2-4, 3.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 56/20 K/BB in 45 IP), then was pitching great during his sophomore year in 2017 (3-1, 2.87 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 61/15 K/BB in 47 IP) before blowing out his elbow and requiring Tommy John surgery halfway through the season. He hasn't pitched since, sitting out his entire junior year, but if I knew about him before the draft, I would have ranked him inside my top 100. Pre-injury, he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and also had a very good diving slider, both of which he could command. Those are the building blocks for something more than just the back-end starter you think he'd be based on his rankings, and with the Dodgers he could end up a mid-rotation arm. He signed for over $1.2 million, coming in $312,500 above slot.
3-104: LHP John Rooney (unranked)
John Rooney was a known quantity throughout his college career despite struggling over his first two seasons at Hofstra University, posting ERA's above 5.00 in both his freshman and sophomore seasons, but he broke out in a huge way in 2018. In 13 starts, the big lefty went 8-2 with a 1.23 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 108/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 95 innings, simply dominating the fairly low level of competition he was facing. Despite being a physically mature 6'5", he sits around 90 with his fastball, though he can dial it up if he needs to. His slider is good too, and he also has a decent changeup, giving him the chance to be a back-end starter at the major league level due to his command and ability to use his height to make his pitches play up. He held his own in the Cape Cod League (1-2, 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 29/15 K/BB in 37 IP), putting up numbers similar to what he could do in the majors. He signed for $563,240, which is $23,440 above slot.
4-134: RHP Braydon Fisher (my rank: 72)
As you can probably guess, I liked this pick, and I think Fisher has the chance to be the best arm to come out of this draft class for Los Angeles. The high schooler from outside of Houston has a live arm that produces fastballs in the low to mid 90's and a good slider, and at a skinny 6'4" and with a quick arm, he has lots of projection. However, he doesn't have much of a track record, as he didn't play on the mainstream showcase circuit during the summer, so he's a high risk pick. He's also very young for his class, as he's more than a year younger than J.T. Ginn and still doesn't turn 18 for another couple of weeks. He signed for $497,500, which was $95,200 above slot, and he has started off his pro career by allowing five runs (three earned) on six hits, four walks, and six strikeouts in five innings in the rookie level Arizona League.
5-164: 2B Devin Mann (unranked)
I saw Mann play when Louisville visited Virginia Tech this season, though he was mired in a slump at the time and did not look good, going hitless in ten at bats. He broke out of it not long afterwards, and he finished the season slashing .303/.446/.504 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a great 45/59 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. At 6'3" and 180 pounds with an athletic frame, he's built like a prototypical hitter, and he generates average power that could produce 15-20 home runs per season in the majors while getting on base at a great clip. You'd expect more power just by looking at him, but his swing lacks the bat speed and whip to produce it, at least from when I saw it during his slump. He swings and misses his fair share (14.8% strikeout rate) but it's not too high of a rate, though seeing him at his worst somewhat skews my perception of him. His 19.4% walk rate this year was excellent, and he could hit his way to the majors as a utility infielder. He signed for $272,500, which was $28,100 below slot, and he's already advancing quickly through the minors. He made a quick stop in the Arizona League, picking up a single in five at bats while adding a walk and striking out three times before being promoted to Class A Great Lakes in the full season Midwest League. Against advanced competition, he is slashing .242/.311/.318 with a home run, a pair of stolen bases, and a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 games, a very credible performance at that level for someone barely a month past being drafted.
9-284: OF Josh McLain (unranked)
I also saw McLain play against Virginia Tech when he came with NC State. The Wolfpack leadoff man had a great season, slashing .344/.375/.458 with four home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 32/10 strikeout to walk ratio, capping off his third straight season with an OPS between .823 and .833. The Dodgers had also drafted him in the 14th round in 2017, but he didn't sign, and they got their man this year. He's a skinny guy, listed at 6'1" and 170 pounds, with pretty good speed and a very quick bat through the zone. Despite the low 3.4% walk rate, he has a very good eye within the zone and rarely swings and misses. His aggressive (and successful from a contact perspective) approach leads to that low walk rate, and it's not just weak contact. He sprays line drives all over the field and can generate lift when he wants to, and I think he'll continue to be successful with wood bats against pro pitching. Despite being a senior, he's very young for his grade with a September birthday where he'll turn 22. He signed for $7,500, which is $136,100 below slot, and after collecting two hits in six at bats in the Arizona League, he's holding his own at Class A Great Lakes, slashing .292/.316/.389 with four stolen bases and a 22/1 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 games.
Others: 10th rounder Deacon Liput was also drafted in the 19th round in 2017 by the Dodgers and didn't sign, and like with McLain, the Dodgers got him to sign this time. Always a very light hitter at Florida, he broke out this year by slashing .285/.375/.478 with nine home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games. He's a good fielder and likely has utility upside, though his bat doesn't project to be anything special. Ultimately I could see him hitting something like Enrique Hernandez at his best. 18th rounder Niko Hulsizer has spent his career at Morehead State putting up eye popping numbers at the plate, including a ridiculous sophomore season in 2017 where he slashed .349/.435/.775 with 27 home runs and a 74/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games in a hitter-friendly environment. He came down to Earth a bit this year, slashing .314/.423/.615 with 12 home runs and a 40/21 strikeout to walk ratio, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.3% to 19.2% and upping his walk rate from 9.3% to 10.1%. He has a bit of a slow swing and his power is more about strength, so he'll strike out a lot in pro ball, but he's already hitting well in the Pioneer League (.348/.464/.587, 2 HR, 10/10 K/BB). Lastly, I also saw 21st rounder Tre Todd play when Liberty came to visit Virginia Tech, and he was impressive. After demolishing JuCo pitching with Harford JuCo in 2017 (.408/.577/.856, 20 HR, 40 SB, 30/68 K/BB), he continued mashing when he transferred to Liberty this year, slashing .315/.479/.553 with 10 home runs and a 61/60 strikeout to walk ratio. His swing is long, which leads to a high strikeout rate (22.9% this year), but he gets the bat in the zone early and keeps it on plane with the pitch, which is good. He generates plenty of power from that swing and he has a chance to stick behind the plate as a catcher.
Also notable: Josh McLain (9-284), Deacon Liput (10-314), Niko Hulsizer (18-554), Tre Todd (21-644)
By failing to sign first round pick J.T. Ginn, the Dodgers ended up with a pretty light draft class at the top, though they did find some gems later on. I really like some of their later draft picks, and I think they did a good job of getting lots of different kinds of players. They grabbed pitchers with their first four picks but actually leaned a little more on hitters as the draft went on, and came together with a respectable draft class when they easily could have not done so with just two of the first 103 picks, especially when the first one didn't even sign.
1-30: RHP J.T. Ginn (my rank: 56)
I didn't like this pick at the time, but Ginn didn't sign anyways so it doesn't really matter. Instead, he'll head to Mississippi State, where he'll be eligible for the 2020 draft as a sophomore. He's one of two unsigned first round picks heading to Mississippi State, where he'll join the Braves' eighth overall pick, Carter Stewart. Ginn should be an immediate contributor there, as his fastball already sits in the mid 90's and his slider can be a plus pitch, and he commands both well enough. However, his delivery is fairly high effort and most see him as a reliever at the next level, where he could be a closer with that fastball/slider combination. High school relief prospects are an interesting group, as they don't have the ceilings of many other high schoolers but also can't move through the minors in the blink of an eye like college relievers, though Ginn does have an outside chance at being able to start if he can develop a changeup and prove he can maintain his velocity and command deep into games. He's very old for the class, having turned 19 in May.
2-68: RHP Michael Grove (unranked)
This Michael Grove pick kind of came out of nowhere, as he was unranked on MLB.com's top 200 and Fangraphs' top 130 (as well as their 52 "other" college pitchers), and came in at #271 on the Baseball America 500. That said, upon looking back over his scouting reports, this is good digging by the Dodgers. He was good as a freshman at West Virginia University in 2016 (2-4, 3.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 56/20 K/BB in 45 IP), then was pitching great during his sophomore year in 2017 (3-1, 2.87 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 61/15 K/BB in 47 IP) before blowing out his elbow and requiring Tommy John surgery halfway through the season. He hasn't pitched since, sitting out his entire junior year, but if I knew about him before the draft, I would have ranked him inside my top 100. Pre-injury, he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and also had a very good diving slider, both of which he could command. Those are the building blocks for something more than just the back-end starter you think he'd be based on his rankings, and with the Dodgers he could end up a mid-rotation arm. He signed for over $1.2 million, coming in $312,500 above slot.
3-104: LHP John Rooney (unranked)
John Rooney was a known quantity throughout his college career despite struggling over his first two seasons at Hofstra University, posting ERA's above 5.00 in both his freshman and sophomore seasons, but he broke out in a huge way in 2018. In 13 starts, the big lefty went 8-2 with a 1.23 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 108/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 95 innings, simply dominating the fairly low level of competition he was facing. Despite being a physically mature 6'5", he sits around 90 with his fastball, though he can dial it up if he needs to. His slider is good too, and he also has a decent changeup, giving him the chance to be a back-end starter at the major league level due to his command and ability to use his height to make his pitches play up. He held his own in the Cape Cod League (1-2, 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 29/15 K/BB in 37 IP), putting up numbers similar to what he could do in the majors. He signed for $563,240, which is $23,440 above slot.
4-134: RHP Braydon Fisher (my rank: 72)
As you can probably guess, I liked this pick, and I think Fisher has the chance to be the best arm to come out of this draft class for Los Angeles. The high schooler from outside of Houston has a live arm that produces fastballs in the low to mid 90's and a good slider, and at a skinny 6'4" and with a quick arm, he has lots of projection. However, he doesn't have much of a track record, as he didn't play on the mainstream showcase circuit during the summer, so he's a high risk pick. He's also very young for his class, as he's more than a year younger than J.T. Ginn and still doesn't turn 18 for another couple of weeks. He signed for $497,500, which was $95,200 above slot, and he has started off his pro career by allowing five runs (three earned) on six hits, four walks, and six strikeouts in five innings in the rookie level Arizona League.
5-164: 2B Devin Mann (unranked)
I saw Mann play when Louisville visited Virginia Tech this season, though he was mired in a slump at the time and did not look good, going hitless in ten at bats. He broke out of it not long afterwards, and he finished the season slashing .303/.446/.504 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a great 45/59 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. At 6'3" and 180 pounds with an athletic frame, he's built like a prototypical hitter, and he generates average power that could produce 15-20 home runs per season in the majors while getting on base at a great clip. You'd expect more power just by looking at him, but his swing lacks the bat speed and whip to produce it, at least from when I saw it during his slump. He swings and misses his fair share (14.8% strikeout rate) but it's not too high of a rate, though seeing him at his worst somewhat skews my perception of him. His 19.4% walk rate this year was excellent, and he could hit his way to the majors as a utility infielder. He signed for $272,500, which was $28,100 below slot, and he's already advancing quickly through the minors. He made a quick stop in the Arizona League, picking up a single in five at bats while adding a walk and striking out three times before being promoted to Class A Great Lakes in the full season Midwest League. Against advanced competition, he is slashing .242/.311/.318 with a home run, a pair of stolen bases, and a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 games, a very credible performance at that level for someone barely a month past being drafted.
9-284: OF Josh McLain (unranked)
I also saw McLain play against Virginia Tech when he came with NC State. The Wolfpack leadoff man had a great season, slashing .344/.375/.458 with four home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 32/10 strikeout to walk ratio, capping off his third straight season with an OPS between .823 and .833. The Dodgers had also drafted him in the 14th round in 2017, but he didn't sign, and they got their man this year. He's a skinny guy, listed at 6'1" and 170 pounds, with pretty good speed and a very quick bat through the zone. Despite the low 3.4% walk rate, he has a very good eye within the zone and rarely swings and misses. His aggressive (and successful from a contact perspective) approach leads to that low walk rate, and it's not just weak contact. He sprays line drives all over the field and can generate lift when he wants to, and I think he'll continue to be successful with wood bats against pro pitching. Despite being a senior, he's very young for his grade with a September birthday where he'll turn 22. He signed for $7,500, which is $136,100 below slot, and after collecting two hits in six at bats in the Arizona League, he's holding his own at Class A Great Lakes, slashing .292/.316/.389 with four stolen bases and a 22/1 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 games.
Others: 10th rounder Deacon Liput was also drafted in the 19th round in 2017 by the Dodgers and didn't sign, and like with McLain, the Dodgers got him to sign this time. Always a very light hitter at Florida, he broke out this year by slashing .285/.375/.478 with nine home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games. He's a good fielder and likely has utility upside, though his bat doesn't project to be anything special. Ultimately I could see him hitting something like Enrique Hernandez at his best. 18th rounder Niko Hulsizer has spent his career at Morehead State putting up eye popping numbers at the plate, including a ridiculous sophomore season in 2017 where he slashed .349/.435/.775 with 27 home runs and a 74/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games in a hitter-friendly environment. He came down to Earth a bit this year, slashing .314/.423/.615 with 12 home runs and a 40/21 strikeout to walk ratio, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.3% to 19.2% and upping his walk rate from 9.3% to 10.1%. He has a bit of a slow swing and his power is more about strength, so he'll strike out a lot in pro ball, but he's already hitting well in the Pioneer League (.348/.464/.587, 2 HR, 10/10 K/BB). Lastly, I also saw 21st rounder Tre Todd play when Liberty came to visit Virginia Tech, and he was impressive. After demolishing JuCo pitching with Harford JuCo in 2017 (.408/.577/.856, 20 HR, 40 SB, 30/68 K/BB), he continued mashing when he transferred to Liberty this year, slashing .315/.479/.553 with 10 home runs and a 61/60 strikeout to walk ratio. His swing is long, which leads to a high strikeout rate (22.9% this year), but he gets the bat in the zone early and keeps it on plane with the pitch, which is good. He generates plenty of power from that swing and he has a chance to stick behind the plate as a catcher.
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