Sunday, July 15, 2018

2018 Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

First 5 rounds: J.T. Ginn (1-30), Michael Grove (2-68), John Rooney (3-104), Braydon Fisher (4-134), Devin Mann (5-164)
Also notable: Josh McLain (9-284), Deacon Liput (10-314), Niko Hulsizer (18-554), Tre Todd (21-644)

By failing to sign first round pick J.T. Ginn, the Dodgers ended up with a pretty light draft class at the top, though they did find some gems later on. I really like some of their later draft picks, and I think they did a good job of getting lots of different kinds of players. They grabbed pitchers with their first four picks but actually leaned a little more on hitters as the draft went on, and came together with a respectable draft class when they easily could have not done so with just two of the first 103 picks, especially when the first one didn't even sign.

1-30: RHP J.T. Ginn (my rank: 56)
I didn't like this pick at the time, but Ginn didn't sign anyways so it doesn't really matter. Instead, he'll head to Mississippi State, where he'll be eligible for the 2020 draft as a sophomore. He's one of two unsigned first round picks heading to Mississippi State, where he'll join the Braves' eighth overall pick, Carter Stewart. Ginn should be an immediate contributor there, as his fastball already sits in the mid 90's and his slider can be a plus pitch, and he commands both well enough. However, his delivery is fairly high effort and most see him as a reliever at the next level, where he could be a closer with that fastball/slider combination. High school relief prospects are an interesting group, as they don't have the ceilings of many other high schoolers but also can't move through the minors in the blink of an eye like college relievers, though Ginn does have an outside chance at being able to start if he can develop a changeup and prove he can maintain his velocity and command deep into games. He's very old for the class, having turned 19 in May.

2-68: RHP Michael Grove (unranked)
This Michael Grove pick kind of came out of nowhere, as he was unranked on MLB.com's top 200 and Fangraphs' top 130 (as well as their 52 "other" college pitchers), and came in at #271 on the Baseball America 500. That said, upon looking back over his scouting reports, this is good digging by the Dodgers. He was good as a freshman at West Virginia University in 2016 (2-4, 3.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 56/20 K/BB in 45 IP), then was pitching great during his sophomore year in 2017 (3-1, 2.87 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 61/15 K/BB in 47 IP) before blowing out his elbow and requiring Tommy John surgery halfway through the season. He hasn't pitched since, sitting out his entire junior year, but if I knew about him before the draft, I would have ranked him inside my top 100. Pre-injury, he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and also had a very good diving slider, both of which he could command. Those are the building blocks for something more than just the back-end starter you think he'd be based on his rankings, and with the Dodgers he could end up a mid-rotation arm. He signed for over $1.2 million, coming in $312,500 above slot.

3-104: LHP John Rooney (unranked)
John Rooney was a known quantity throughout his college career despite struggling over his first two seasons at Hofstra University, posting ERA's above 5.00 in both his freshman and sophomore seasons, but he broke out in a huge way in 2018. In 13 starts, the big lefty went 8-2 with a 1.23 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 108/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 95 innings, simply dominating the fairly low level of competition he was facing. Despite being a physically mature 6'5", he sits around 90 with his fastball, though he can dial it up if he needs to. His slider is good too, and he also has a decent changeup, giving him the chance to be a back-end starter at the major league level due to his command and ability to use his height to make his pitches play up. He held his own in the Cape Cod League (1-2, 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 29/15 K/BB in 37 IP), putting up numbers similar to what he could do in the majors. He signed for $563,240, which is $23,440 above slot.

4-134: RHP Braydon Fisher (my rank: 72)
As you can probably guess, I liked this pick, and I think Fisher has the chance to be the best arm to come out of this draft class for Los Angeles. The high schooler from outside of Houston has a live arm that produces fastballs in the low to mid 90's and a good slider, and at a skinny 6'4" and with a quick arm, he has lots of projection. However, he doesn't have much of a track record, as he didn't play on the mainstream showcase circuit during the summer, so he's a high risk pick. He's also very young for his class, as he's more than a year younger than J.T. Ginn and still doesn't turn 18 for another couple of weeks. He signed for $497,500, which was $95,200 above slot, and he has started off his pro career by allowing five runs (three earned) on six hits, four walks, and six strikeouts in five innings in the rookie level Arizona League.

5-164: 2B Devin Mann (unranked)
I saw Mann play when Louisville visited Virginia Tech this season, though he was mired in a slump at the time and did not look good, going hitless in ten at bats. He broke out of it not long afterwards, and he finished the season slashing .303/.446/.504 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a great 45/59 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. At 6'3" and 180 pounds with an athletic frame, he's built like a prototypical hitter, and he generates average power that could produce 15-20 home runs per season in the majors while getting on base at a great clip. You'd expect more power just by looking at him, but his swing lacks the bat speed and whip to produce it, at least from when I saw it during his slump. He swings and misses his fair share (14.8% strikeout rate) but it's not too high of a rate, though seeing him at his worst somewhat skews my perception of him. His 19.4% walk rate this year was excellent, and he could hit his way to the majors as a utility infielder. He signed for $272,500, which was $28,100 below slot, and he's already advancing quickly through the minors. He made a quick stop in the Arizona League, picking up a single in five at bats while adding a walk and striking out three times before being promoted to Class A Great Lakes in the full season Midwest League. Against advanced competition, he is slashing .242/.311/.318 with a home run, a pair of stolen bases, and a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 games, a very credible performance at that level for someone barely a month past being drafted.

9-284: OF Josh McLain (unranked)
I also saw McLain play against Virginia Tech when he came with NC State. The Wolfpack leadoff man had a great season, slashing .344/.375/.458 with four home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 32/10 strikeout to walk ratio, capping off his third straight season with an OPS between .823 and .833. The Dodgers had also drafted him in the 14th round in 2017, but he didn't sign, and they got their man this year. He's a skinny guy, listed at 6'1" and 170 pounds, with pretty good speed and a very quick bat through the zone. Despite the low 3.4% walk rate, he has a very good eye within the zone and rarely swings and misses. His aggressive (and successful from a contact perspective) approach leads to that low walk rate, and it's not just weak contact. He sprays line drives all over the field and can generate lift when he wants to, and I think he'll continue to be successful with wood bats against pro pitching. Despite being a senior, he's very young for his grade with a September birthday where he'll turn 22. He signed for $7,500, which is $136,100 below slot, and after collecting two hits in six at bats in the Arizona League, he's holding his own at Class A Great Lakes, slashing .292/.316/.389 with four stolen bases and a 22/1 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 games.

Others: 10th rounder Deacon Liput was also drafted in the 19th round in 2017 by the Dodgers and didn't sign, and like with McLain, the Dodgers got him to sign this time. Always a very light hitter at Florida, he broke out this year by slashing .285/.375/.478 with nine home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games. He's a good fielder and likely has utility upside, though his bat doesn't project to be anything special. Ultimately I could see him hitting something like Enrique Hernandez at his best. 18th rounder Niko Hulsizer has spent his career at Morehead State putting up eye popping numbers at the plate, including a ridiculous sophomore season in 2017 where he slashed .349/.435/.775 with 27 home runs and a 74/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games in a hitter-friendly environment. He came down to Earth a bit this year, slashing .314/.423/.615 with 12 home runs and a 40/21 strikeout to walk ratio, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.3% to 19.2% and upping his walk rate from 9.3% to 10.1%. He has a bit of a slow swing and his power is more about strength, so he'll strike out a lot in pro ball, but he's already hitting well in the Pioneer League (.348/.464/.587, 2 HR, 10/10 K/BB). Lastly, I also saw 21st rounder Tre Todd play when Liberty came to visit Virginia Tech, and he was impressive. After demolishing JuCo pitching with Harford JuCo in 2017 (.408/.577/.856, 20 HR, 40 SB, 30/68 K/BB), he continued mashing when he transferred to Liberty this year, slashing .315/.479/.553 with 10 home runs and a 61/60 strikeout to walk ratio. His swing is long, which leads to a high strikeout rate (22.9% this year), but he gets the bat in the zone early and keeps it on plane with the pitch, which is good. He generates plenty of power from that swing and he has a chance to stick behind the plate as a catcher.

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