The Padres have depth everywhere you look, and on top of that, they have those kinds of impact prospects you want leading the way at most positions. MacKenzie Gore is of course one of the top pitching prospects in the game, possessing all of the qualities you look for in a prospect with the stuff, command, and competitiveness to profile at the top of the rotation. Behind him, Luis Campusano's breakout makes him one of the game's top catching prospects, while guys like Luis Patino, Taylor Trammell, Gabriel Arias, Hudson Potts, and Ryan Weathers keep working their ways up and look like they could be future stars. Then there's 2019 first round pick CJ Abrams, whose electric pro debut meant the Padres could feel comfortable trading Xavier Edwards, and Joey Cantillo, who came out of nowhere to have one of the finest statistical seasons in the minors. If pitchers like Pedro Avila, Anderson Espinoza, and Mason Thompson can make healthy returns in 2020, that would be big.
Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA Amarillo Sod Poodles, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, short season Tri-City Dust Devils, complex level AZL and DSL Padres
Catcher
- Luis Campusano (2020 Age: 21): A second round pick out of high school in Augusta, Georgia in 2017, Campusano turned in a fairly ordinary first full season in 2018 (.288/.345/.365) before breaking out in 2019. This past season, he hit 15 home runs and slashed .325/.396/.509 with a 57/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Lake Elsinore, numbers that remain great even when accounting for the California League bump. He packs a lot of strength into his 5'10" frame that enables him to hit for good power, but he really began to figure out pro pitching and was virtually impossible to strike out in 2019. That's huge, because given the raw power in his bat, he could hit for even more over the fence pop in 2020 and threaten for 20-25 home runs annually in the bigs if he decides to become a bit more of a free swinger. Defensively, he'll stick behind the plate with his strong arm, but he's a bat-first prospect that could push Francisco Mejia back to the outfield down the road.
- Blake Hunt (2020 Age: 21): While Campusano has blasted forward, Hunt has sort of flown under the radar, though the fellow 2017 draftee who went 30 picks later out of high school in Santa Ana fits nicely as a glove-first counterpart. In 2019, he slashed .255/.331/.381 with five home runs and a 67/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Class A Fort Wayne, like Campusano proving to be difficult to strike out but not hitting for nearly as much impact. He retains some power potential in his 6'3" frame, but at this point he's looking more like a glove-first backup who can provide a lot of value on defense. With Campusano's bat-first profile, they should make a solid duo in the majors down the road.
- Logan Driscoll (2020 Age: 22): Sneaking up behind Campusano and Hunt will be Logan Driscoll, taken in the second competitive balance round out of George Mason University in 2019. In his pro debut, he hit a strong .268/.340/.458 with three home runs and a 23/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games at short season Tri-City, and he showed solid enough defense to project long term behind the plate. He's got some power and natural feel for the barrel in his 6'1" frame, and his strong plate discipline in college carried over to pro ball. That power/plate discipline combination should make him a net positive as a hitter, so long as the power plays up, though he has a long term projection as a backup catcher because he doesn't necessarily excel in any particular area.
- Keep an eye on: Jalen Washington, Juan Fernandez
Corner Infield
- Hudson Potts (2020 Age: 21): Similar to the Braves, whom I wrote up before the Padres, the one place this system lacks a ton of depth is in the corner infield. As I wrote for the Braves, that's quite alright, because middle infielders can often be shifted over here anyways. Additionally, Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado should have those spots locked down for a long time. Potts is the one standout in this group, a 2016 first round pick out of high school in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and in 2019 he slashed .240/.302/.423 with 17 home runs and a 131/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games between AA Amarillo and complex level rehab work. He's an advanced hitter that could be an all-around asset at the plate, one who can find the barrel consistently against advanced pitching while using his strength and leverage to put up good power numbers. Very young for his class when he was drafted back in 2016, the Padres have pushed him aggressively anyways and the results have been more good than bat, with three straight seasons of at least 17 home runs and 23 doubles. The plate discipline has been so-so, but that's likely attributable to his age, as he played all of 2019 at just 20 years old in AA. My guess is he'll probably need a bit more seasoning in the upper minors, but he could develop into a 20-25 homer bat in the near future. I'm not quite sure where he'll play, because his natural third base is going to be occupied for a long time by Machado, but he could fit in at second base if he improves his range a little bit.
- Keep an eye on: Jason Vosler, Brad Zunica, Sean Guilbe
Middle Infield
- Jake Cronenworth (2020 Age: 26): Cronenworth was originally a Rays seventh round pick out of Michigan back in 2015, and he worked his way up slowly as a light hitting infielder. The juiced AAA balls did wonders for him in 2019, as he slashed .329/.422/.511 with ten home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 64/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games between AAA and complex level rehab, and after the season he was shipped to San Diego in the Tommy Pham/Hunter Renfroe deal. Cronenworth has always done a great job of controlling the strike zone and making for a tough at bat, but he began to hit for more impact in 2019 as he regularly found the barrel and the gaps. He profiles well as a utility infielder, though the bat might be just a bit too light to start full time. Additionally, the Rays actually tried him out as a reliever as well in 2019, and he responded with 7.2 shutout innings (with two unearned runs) and a 9/8 strikeout to walk ratio over seven appearances. He sits in the mid 90's and adds a really good curveball and cutter, though his command is still a work in progress. His future is mostly as a hitter, but he should be a serviceable reliever as well in 2020 if he can get more consistent with that command.
- Owen Miller (2020 Age: 23): A third round pick out of Illinois State in 2018, Miller has just flat out hit his way into the middle of the Padres future. After slashing .336/.386/.460 and hitting his way up to Class A in his pro debut, he skipped High A entirely and slashed .290/.355/.430 with 13 home runs and an 86/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at AA Amarillo in 2019. Hitting like that in AA less than a year out of the mid major Missouri Valley Conference, where he faced schools like Valparaiso and and Evansville, speaks volumes to his natural feel for the game. Miller doesn't have a ton of raw pop, but he finds the barrel so consistently and so easily that it plays up, and when you combine that with strong defense at second base and adequate defense at shortstop, he's a dark horse candidate to be the long term starter at the former position for San Diego. Expect Miller up in the majors as a utility infielder at some point in 2020 before challenging for that second base spot in 2021.
- Gabriel Arias (2020 Age: 20): The Padres signed Arias for $1.9 million out of Venezuela in 2016, and they've pushed him aggressively while letting him learn to hit pro pitching on the fly. After a couple of seasons with reasonably unremarkable numbers, he broke out in 2019 by slashing .302/.339/.470 with 17 home runs and a 128/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at High A Lake Elsinore as a teenager. He has an extremely quick bat from the right side that produces plenty of power, and he's gotten to it consistently against older pitching, showing his great feel for hitting in general. For now, he has a very aggressive approach that limits his walks and leads to some swing and miss, but he's also been young for his levels and those K/BB numbers should hopefully get a little closer together as he matures. Shortening his bat path might help as well, as his quick hands help him make up for a little bit of bat curl before the pitch but that might be more difficult against higher velocity at the higher levels. Arias is also a great defender that will stick at shortstop, giving him a profile as an all-around contributor. He won't unseat Fernando Tatis, but he could slide over to second base and win Gold Gloves there if he can beat out Owen Miller.
- Eguy Rosario (2020 Age: 20): As with most of their young prospects, the Padres pushed Rosario aggressively early, but when he hit .239/.307/.363 as an 18 year old in High A in 2018, they allowed him to repeat the level. The results were much better in 2019, when Rosario was a seasoned veteran at 19 years old, as he slashed .278/.331/.412 with seven home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 103/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at High A Lake Elsinore. He's a little guy at a listed 5'9" and 150 pounds, but he packs a lot of strength in there to hit for some gap power that played as over the fence power in the hitter-friendly California League. He also has a very advanced approach for his age that enabled him to reach High A at 18 years old, and he brings some speed as well that has given him 86 stolen bases in 406 games overall. Rosario has more of a utility infield projection, but he's young enough to continue developing and make himself into more of an impact prospect with a nice season in AA in 2020.
- Tucupita Marcano (2020 Age: 20): Marcano is a really interesting prospect. The Venezuelan product slashed .270/.323/.337 with two home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 45/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games at Class A Fort Wayne in 2019, but he has still walked far more times in his pro career (99) than he has struck out (76). He's really skinny at 6' tall and is more of a slap hitter than anything else, but he finds the barrel so easily that he might be the most difficult player to strike out in the entire system. Set to play the entire 2020 season at 20 years old, he has time to fill out his frame and add more strength, which could help him tap some gap power and maybe some over the fence pop, which will likely be the difference in him ultimately earning a starting spot or not down the road. He fits better at second base than at shortstop, but his ability to stick as an infielder does give him a little bit of extra time to find his power. A move up to the hitter-friendly California League in 2020 could help in that regard.
- CJ Abrams (2020 Age: 19): Abrams was one of the top high schoolers in the 2019 draft, and the Padres picked him up out of the Atlanta area with the sixth overall pick before turning him loose in the complex level Arizona League, where he slashed .401/.442/.662 with three home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 14/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games. Abrams also earned a late promotion to Class A Fort Wayne, where picked up a single, a double, and a stolen base between two games. He shows an exciting combination of speed, athleticism, and feel for the barrel, which enabled him to hit his way up to full season ball just a couple months out of high school. There's also some power potential in his 6'2" frame, as he has room to fill out as well as the great hit tool that can help him maximize whatever he does have. It's an exciting, true leadoff potential, as Abrams could hit 10-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases. Defensively, he may be able to stick at shortstop, but he could be a strong defender at second.
- Keep an eye on: Ivan Castillo, Esteury Ruiz, Allen Cordoba, Jordy Barley, Yeison Santana, Reginald Preciado
Outfield
- Taylor Trammell (2020 Age: 22): Trammell was a Reds competitive balance pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2016, then he got shipped to San Diego in the three team Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig/Franmil Reyes deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he slashed .234/.340/.349 with ten home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 122/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games in AA, which was a bit of a step back but also not overly worrisome for a 21 year old at that level. Trammell is an exceptionally talented player who can impact the game in a variety of ways, including with a patient approach, some raw power, plenty of speed, and good range in the outfield. Even now, a few years out of high school, he remains a bit raw, but his overall abilities and work ethic have helped him get up into the upper minors. The Padres are hoping to squeeze out that last little bit of refinement in the bat to help him make more consistent hard contact, after which he could realize his ceiling of 15-20 home runs a year, solid on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases.
- Edward Olivares (2020 Age: 24): Olivares broke out with a big year in the Blue Jays system in 2017, and the Padres picked him up for Yangervis Solarte after the season. He hit well in 2018 and broke out with his best year yet in 2019, slashing .283/.349/.453 with 18 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 98/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Amarillo. He's really begun tapping his power in games, and he adds a lot of speed that has enabled him to pick up 76 stolen bases over the last three seasons and play good defense in center field. It might be a bit more of a utility projection than Trammell, who was his teammate at Amarillo, just because he has less projection in his bat as he's set to turn 24 in spring training. In all, it's probably 10-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases.
- Tirso Ornelas (2020 Age: 20): Ornelas is a hometown guy for the Padres, as he grew up just across the border in Tijuana, but while the organization has been patiently waiting for him to break out, it just hasn't happened yet. While the numbers weren't quite there from a pure production standpoint, he showed excellent plate discipline while playing against much older competition in 2017 and 2018, which had the team excited to see what 2019 could bring. Unfortunately, he hit just .217/.303/.279 with one home run and a 113/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between High A Lake Elsinore and a brief demotion to the complex level Arizona League to get back on track, which didn't really work. He's an extremely advanced hitter that understands the strike zone and advanced pitching well beyond his years, but despite a strong build at 6'3", he hasn't hit for much impact yet. He's only set to turn 20 in spring training, giving him plenty of time to figure things out, but the Padres would like to see at least some impact start to come out of his talented bat. Defensively, he has the makings of being a solid right fielder, though he's nothing special out there. It will be the bat that will have to wake up.
- Hudson Head (2020 Age: 19): The Padres made a huge gamble on Head, a solid high school prospect out of San Antonio, by giving him a third round record $3 million to keep from attending Oklahoma. He fell well outside of MLB.com's, Baseball America's, and my own top 100 due to his lack of a track record, but the Padres must have seen something they liked because this is a massive amount of money to take out of a draft pool. In his pro debut, Head slashed .283/.383/.417 with a home run and a 29/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games in the complex level Arizona League, which is definitely a solid start for the 18 year old. He has tapped some significant raw power in high school, though it's unproven against higher level pitching, and his speed and athleticism enable him to play a strong center field. If all goes right, the Padres are hoping to get a fairly similar player to Taylor Trammell, and that pro debut was a step in the right direction, but there is a lot of investment riding on that happening.
- Joshua Mears (2020 Age: 19): Mears went in the second round out of a Seattle-area high school in 2019, though he signed for a third of the money that Hudson signed for a round later. Though he was supposed to be raw coming in, he slashed .253/.354/.440 with seven home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 59/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games in the Arizona League, getting to his power frequently while drawing his fair share of walks. Mears is a 6'3" slugger with some of the best raw power in a system more geared towards speed and on-base percentage, though as an 18 year old kid without a lot of experience against advanced pitching, his ability to make contact and tap his power in games remains raw. That's why, despite a relatively high strikeout rate, it was nice to see him hit those seven home runs and tap it a little bit in pro ball. The Padres will get to work refining that hit tool with him in spring training, with the hope that he'll eventually hit 25-30 home runs or more annually. Despite his size, he's an adequate defender who could play left or right field.
- Keep an eye on: Michael Gettys, Jeisson Rosario, Grant Little, Michael Curry, Ismael Mena
Starting Pitching
- MacKenzie Gore (2020 Age: 21): Gore was the third overall pick coming out of high school in rural southeastern North Carolina in 2017, and after a solid if unspectacular 2018, he broke out in a huge way in 2019 to establish himself as one of the top prospects in the game. Between High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, he posted a 1.69 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 135/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 innings, and if you take out one rough start on July 19th, the ERA and WHIP drop to 1.11 and 0.76, respectively. In essence, aside from one start, the 20 year old was untouchable. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a whole set of secondaries, all of which can be plus pitches. His curveball has really good shape and his slider is a second distinct breaking ball that dives to his glove side, while his changeup has improved as well to the point where it can be an out pitch. He also throws strikes with all of his pitches, and his competitiveness on the mound makes everything play up. That's an ace projection if he can stay healthy, because he really checks all of the boxes you're looking for in a young pitcher – he's even left handed. I doubt Gore will open 2020 in the big league rotation, but he could be up at some point during the year and once he's up, he should stick.
- Adrian Morejon (2020 Age: 21): Morejon was a well regarded prospect coming out of Cuba, signing for $11 million in 2016, and he's worked his way up as one of the better pitching prospects in the system. In 2019, he posted a 4.25 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 44/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings at AA Amarillo, then got knocked around with a 10.13 ERA and a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio in eight major league innings before shoulder problems ended his season in August. There's no question about his stuff, as his fastball sits in the mid 90's while his curveball has some wicked two plane break. He also adds a pair of changeups with nice diving and fading action, and his command is good enough to make it all work. The problem here has been durability, as he's not the biggest guy at six feet tall and he has yet to throw more than 65.1 innings in a season. He has both the stuff and command to be a #2 or #3 starter at the major league level, but if he can't stay healthy, he might be forced to the bullpen. Set to turn just 21 years old at the start of spring training, Morejon already has all of the pieces in place except for that pesky durability, but of course none of it matters if he can't stay healthy. At the least, he should be an impact lefty reliever.
- Michel Baez (2020 Age: 24): Baez, another Cuban who signed for a big bonus in 2016 ($3 million), has followed Morejon's development path but he's a very different pitcher. Three years older and eight inches taller, he stands 6'8" and also sits in the mid 90's with his fastball. His go to breaking ball is a slider, though he also has a curve and a changeup, though all together the arsenal is a bit inconsistent. That spreads to his command, which comes and goes, and ultimately it's hard to say whether he'll be able to stick in the rotation. In 2019, Baez posted a 2.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings at AA Amarillo, then went up to the majors and put up a 3.03 ERA and a 28/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings in relief. Even though Baez has proven more durable to this point, I'd project Morejon as the better prospect because he's a much more complete pitcher at a younger age, but Baez does retain a high ceiling. There's a good chance he ends up a power reliever, where his 6'8" height would also be a big boon.
- Ronald Bolanos (2020 Age: 23): Yet another Cuban signed in 2016, Bolanos went for $2 million but has flown a bit more under the radar in the shadows of Morejon and Baez. That changed in 2019, when he broke out and posted a 3.66 ERA, a a 1.24 WHIP, and a 142/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, and he also put up a 5.95 ERA and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 19.2 major league innings. The 6'3" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a whole set of secondary pitches, and while none of them stand out as true out pitches, he mixes them effectively and gets some deception in his delivery to help them play up. He also throws his share of strikes, and in all he projects as a #4 or #5 starter. However, he's proven more durable than Morejon and more consistent than Baez, so he might actually have the highest floor as a starter of the trio.
- Luis Patino (2020 Age: 20): Patino, in my opinion, is easily the second best pitching prospect in this system behind MacKenzie Gore. Signed for $120,000 out of Colombia in that same 2016 class that featured the trio of Cubans above him here, he's younger than all of them and has easily the most complete profile. In 2019, he posted a 2.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 123/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.2 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, despite not turning 20 until after the season. Patino has a lightning quick right arm, but the ball still seems to explode even quicker out of his hand and it sits in the low to mid 90's. He also adds a distinct slider and curveball as well as a changeup, and he commands all of it pretty well for someone his age. Patino needs to get more consistent with his all around game, but at just 20 years old, he's far more advanced than most arms his age and it all boils down to this; that's a special right arm, one with as much talent as you'll see anywhere. He doesn't throw as hard, but his athleticism and quick arm kind of remind me of Yordano Ventura.
- Pedro Avila (2020 Age: 23): Avila was originally a Nationals prospect who came over for Derek Norris in 2016, though 2019 was a bit of a lost season as he posted a 5.25 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 31/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings between AA Amarillo and some complex level rehab. However, he did make his MLB debut in April, where he threw 5.1 strong innings against the Diamondbacks, but he missed a big chunk of the season with elbow problems. When healthy, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball but gets really nice, late bite on his curveball and gets good fade on his changeup, and the throws just enough strikes with all three pitches in order to make them play up. Healthy now, he just needs to prove he can remain in and around the zone consistently in the bigs, though his lighter velocity might push him to the bullpen where he could add a tick or two. He's just about ready now, even post-injury, but this is a stacked system and there are quite a few arms ahead of him for rotation spots.
- Reggie Lawson (2020 Age: 22-23): Lawson went in the second competitive balance round out of high school in 2016, and he's a semi-local kid from Victorville, up in the desert north of San Bernardino. He's worked his way up one level at a time, though he missed most of 2019 with elbow problems and finished with a 5.20 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 36/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings at AA Amarillo. No worries, because Lawson did return for the Arizona Fall League and looked really good in eleven innings. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a big dropping curveball as well as a changeup, and with workable command, he definitely has the ability to start. The curve can look plus and the changeup can look above average at times, though both lack consistency and he does run the risk of becoming a fastball/curveball reliever, especially in this deep system. Despite this, you have to feel like Lawson is one or two adjustments away from breaking through, even after a few pro seasons, so I wouldn't give up on him as a starter just yet. He just has to get more consistent, which of course is easier said than done.
- Ryan Weathers (2020 Age: 20): Weathers garnered a lot of attention as one of the most advanced high school arms in the class in 2018, and the Padres grabbed him with the seventh overall pick out of a rural Middle Tennessee high school. In his first full season, he posted a 3.84 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 90/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at Class A Fort Wayne, a very strong performance for a kid straight out of high school. Weathers sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a sharp curve and a very advanced changeup, all of which he commands very well. That all gives him less of the boom/bust profile that you see in most high school arms, as he's more like a college arm in that you know what you're getting and you just have to teach him to execute in pro ball. Weathers doesn't come with a ton of ceiling, but he has a very good shot at becoming an innings-eating #3 starter.
- Joey Cantillo (2020 Age: 20): Cantillo, a 16th round pick out of high school in Hawaii in 2017 who was born one day after Weathers in December 1999, was a little known teenage prospect coming into the season who didn't throw particularly hard or have great offspeed stuff. That changed in 2019, though, as he was one of the minors' biggest surprises by posting a 2.26 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and High A Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" lefty only sits around 90 with his fastball, sometimes bumping higher, and adds a full set of secondaries that he mixed well enough to miss a ton of Midwest League bats in 2019. He does a good job of throwing strikes and gets most of his outs with his changeup, and everything plays up because he can effectively mix his four pitches. Cantillo still has a lot of work to do, namely adding velocity and sharpening one or both of his breaking balls, but you can't argue with the numbers and Class A hitters were simply dumbfounded by the then-19 year old's stuff.
- Anderson Espinoza (2020 Age: 22): It's been three and a half years since Espinoza last threw a pitch on a professional mound, but that only speaks to how talented he is to still have his name on this list. Forearm problems kept him off the mound for most of 2017, then surgery late in the year wiped out the rest of the season as well as his 2018 season. A second Tommy John surgery knocked him out for the 2019 season as well, so fingers crossed that 2020 is the year. Back when he was pitching, Espinoza showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a curve and a changeup, and all three could be plus pitches. His command was also really good for an 18 year old, which will hopefully help him as he gets back on the found for the first time in ages. Espinoza has everything to prove and we don't know what kind of pitcher he will be when he gets back, whether he'll stick in the rotation or not, etc., but the good news is he was so young when he got hurt that he only turns 22 in spring training, making him the same age as most 2019 college draftees.
- Keep an eye on: Jacob Nix, Jerry Keel, Lake Bachar, Aaron Leasher, Caleb Boushley, Osvaldo Hernandez
Relief Pitching
- Steven Wilson (2020 Age: 25): Wilson was an eighth round pick out of Santa Clara in 2018, but as a redshirt senior who was old for his class, he had already turned 24 by the end of his pro debut and carried a 7.88 ERA at that. However, things changed in a big way in 2019, when he posted a 2.67 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an 86/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AAA El Paso, two very hitter-friendly environments. A starter back at Santa Clara, he's seen a velocity bump in relief and now sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a slider and a cutter on top of it. The slider has great diagonal movement while the cutter can run to the glove side, and with his armside running fastball, he's a power arm that can make his pitches move essentially in any direction he wants them to. His command is decent and it hasn't hurt him in the minors, though in the majors he'll probably want to take a little step forward there if he wants to be more than a middle reliever.
- Henry Henry (2020 Age: 21): Of course, how can we not talk about the kid named Henry Henry here. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, Henry transitioned to a full time reliever this year and put up a 3.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an 80/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings at Class A Fort Wayne, a nice step forward from what he was doing in the rotation. He possesses easy velocity in the low to mid 90's, and he adds a nice curveball with two plane break. For now, what stands out is Henry's ability to throw strikes, his biggest improvement from 2018 to 2019, as well as the ease with which he throws. It's not out of the realm of possibility to see another velocity bump, as he'll play all of 2020 at 21 years old and now has a full year in the bullpen under his belt. Probably more of a middle relief profile, but it's fun to track a kid with a name like Henry Henry.
- Mason Thompson (2020 Age: 22): Thompson was an over slot third round pick out of an Austin-area high school in 2016, though he's struggled to stay healthy and has just 159.1 pro innings under his belt in four seasons. In 2019, he posted a 7.24 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and a 25/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 innings between High A Lake Elsinore and complex level rehab work, though elbow problems bothered him mid season. Given that his injury history goes back to high school Tommy John surgery, it's probably pretty clear that he won't hold up in a starting role and he'll probably get run out as a reliever eventually. Thompson is extremely tall, standing 6'7", and that helps him get good angle on his pitches and run his fastball into the mid 90's. However, all of his secondary pitches lack consistency and his command collapsed as he battled injuries this year. He has shown strike throwing aptitude in the past and his slider has some nice, late break, so there is potential for him to take a big step forward in the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: David Bednar, Elliot Ashbeck, Mason Fox, Dylan Coleman, Ignacio Feliz
Showing posts with label Luis Campusano. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Luis Campusano. Show all posts
Thursday, January 23, 2020
Thursday, July 13, 2017
2017 Draft Review: San Diego Padres
First 5 rounds: MacKenzie Gore (1-3), Luis Campusano (2-39), Blake Hunt (CBB-69), Mason House (3-78), Sam Keating (4-108), Jonny Hozma (5-138)
Also notable: Alex Cunningham (9-258), Dominic Taccolini (10-288), Nick Feight (19-558), Daniel Cabrera (26-768)
The Padres threw all the chips in and took high risk high schoolers with each of their first six picks: two pitchers (always the injury risk), two catchers (low success rate historically), and two guys from way off the prospect map (one who played no major showcase events, one from Alaska...Alaska). The Padres' major league team doesn't really have anything going for it right now other than Wil Myers and the vastly underrated Ryan Schimpf, so they have time to toy around with some high risk, high reward prospects.
1-3: LHP MacKenzie Gore (my rank: 4)
Coming into the season, Gore was in the first round conversation but was projected to go somewhere in the back half or even in the Competitive Balance Round, outside the top 30, but a spectacular spring had his name rocketing up draft boards to the point where he was in the conversation for first overall pick. The Padres ultimately grabbed him with the third pick, even with names like Kyle Wright and Brendan McKay still on the board. The high school lefty from the small town of Whiteville, North Carolina, population fewer than 6,000, is everything scouts love. Aside from being lefty, he's 6'3" and well built, can hit the mid 90's with his fastball, has a big, hard curveball that can put batters away, and has made progress on a changeup. He's extremely competitive in the best way, bringing a bulldog mentality to the mound that reminds some of fellow rural North Carolina lefty Madison Bumgarner. Gore has a lot of wasted movement in his delivery which leads pessimists to believe he'll land in the bullpen, but optimists, myself included, see the opportunity to streamline everything and possibly add even more velocity and sharpness. He has true top of the rotation potential, but as a high school pitcher, he naturally comes with the considerable risk of completely flopping. Gore signed for $6.7 million, which is $31,900 above slot.
2-39: C Luis Campusano (my rank: 51)
Another riser in this draft class, Campusano hit his way to the top of the catching class with M.J. Melendez (Royals, 2-52), coming from high school near Augusta, Georgia. The first thing scouts noticed was that he came into the season in excellent physical condition, which is a plus both on the field, where it helps performance, and off the field, where it hints towards a strong work ethic. While he doesn't project to win any Gold Gloves, he's good enough behind the plate to be able to stick there, though high school catchers have a low success rate historically. At the plate, he is power over contact, showing plus power from a simple swing, but he hasn't proven his ability to make contact against advanced pitching. If he can't make contact, he can't get to his power, and that renders everything else useless. He's got some Rod Barajas in him, but he could end up a far superior player to the former catcher. He'll have to make contact to do so, though. He signed for $1.3 million, $460,700 below slot.
CBB-69: C Blake Hunt (my rank: 96)
Hunt, a southern California high school product, will have a lot of work to do to reach his ceiling. He's great defensively, actually better behind the plate than Campusano, but his swing has more issues. Hunt possesses some power potential with his short, powerful swing, but he doesn't get much extension and his stride doesn't gain any ground. The Padres will have to toy with both the stride and his swing path, giving him lots of bust potential, but between him and Campusano, the Padres are hoping to get their next MLB catcher. Hunt signed for $1.6 million, $751,400 above slot.
3-78: OF Mason House (my rank: 85)
For some reason, all of the public baseball video on House amounts to one swing, so I have to lean heavily on online scouting reports. He's a power left handed bat who scouts had a tough time evaluating because he didn't play any major showcase events, and his small town Whitehouse, Texas high school didn't play any high level competition. From that one in-game swing I saw online, the swing seems a bit long, but being raw is forgivable in his case. He's a good athlete who can run, so he's not a one-dimensional bat, and he'll be an interesting prospect to follow. House signed for $732,200, at slot for the 78th pick.
4-108: RHP Sam Keating (unranked)
Keating is on the right trajectory, with his velocity and stuff improving steadily over the past year. He began sitting consistently in the low 90's this spring, and his slider and curveball have become more distinct from each other. He has a loose arm and an easy delivery, so as long as he stays healthy and continues his current path, he could be a big league starter. Standing 6'3", he's a classic starting pitching prospect. Keating signed for $900,000, which is $403,000 over slot.
26-768: OF Daniel Cabrera (my rank: 73)
Cabrera won't sign here in the 26th round, likely instead attending LSU, but he's a solid hit over power prospect. He has a quick left handed, line drive swing, and he should be a safe bet to hit for average and get on base at higher levels. However, most of his other tools are at or below average, and he isn't overall an exciting prospect. That could change after three years in Baton Rouge, but for now, he'll have to prove he can be more than a one-dimensional player.
Others: 5th rounder Jonny Homza comes from South Anchorage High School in Alaska, but the Padres were able to buy him out of attending Hawaii for $250,000, which is $121,200 under slot. He was drafted as a third baseman despite his ability to catch, and he has a strong swing that is similar to Blake Hunt's. As an extreme cold weather player, he has a lot of work to do, but it could pay off. 9th rounder Alex Cunningham was an integral part of Coastal Carolina's run to the 2016 NCAA Championship, going 10-4 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but he returned to school this year and was even better. As a senior, he went 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, striking out 117 batters in 106 innings while walking just 24. Already 23, he should be a quick mover through the minors, already seeing a promotion to High Class A Lake Elsinore. 10th rounder Dominic Taccolini played four years at Arkansas, alongside the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Zach Jackson, and Blaine Knight, but he never quite put it together on the mound. He finished with a decent senior year, going 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP against tough SEC competition, striking out 49 in 51 innings. Taccolini will also be a quick mover through the minors, likely as a reliever whose stuff could suddenly jump forward in pro ball. 19th rounder Nick Feight was a big reason that UNC-Wilmington's offense was among the most feared in college baseball in 2016, slashing .349/.412/.726 with 21 home runs against admittedly weak Colonial Athletic Association competition. He took a small step back in 2017, slashing .293/.355/.536 with 15 home runs as a junior, and as a first baseman, his bat will have to carry him. The Northern Virginia native (Battlefield HS) performed reasonably well on the Cape (.270/.316/.416), but he's likely an organizational bat unless he can take a big step forward offensively.
Also notable: Alex Cunningham (9-258), Dominic Taccolini (10-288), Nick Feight (19-558), Daniel Cabrera (26-768)
The Padres threw all the chips in and took high risk high schoolers with each of their first six picks: two pitchers (always the injury risk), two catchers (low success rate historically), and two guys from way off the prospect map (one who played no major showcase events, one from Alaska...Alaska). The Padres' major league team doesn't really have anything going for it right now other than Wil Myers and the vastly underrated Ryan Schimpf, so they have time to toy around with some high risk, high reward prospects.
1-3: LHP MacKenzie Gore (my rank: 4)
Coming into the season, Gore was in the first round conversation but was projected to go somewhere in the back half or even in the Competitive Balance Round, outside the top 30, but a spectacular spring had his name rocketing up draft boards to the point where he was in the conversation for first overall pick. The Padres ultimately grabbed him with the third pick, even with names like Kyle Wright and Brendan McKay still on the board. The high school lefty from the small town of Whiteville, North Carolina, population fewer than 6,000, is everything scouts love. Aside from being lefty, he's 6'3" and well built, can hit the mid 90's with his fastball, has a big, hard curveball that can put batters away, and has made progress on a changeup. He's extremely competitive in the best way, bringing a bulldog mentality to the mound that reminds some of fellow rural North Carolina lefty Madison Bumgarner. Gore has a lot of wasted movement in his delivery which leads pessimists to believe he'll land in the bullpen, but optimists, myself included, see the opportunity to streamline everything and possibly add even more velocity and sharpness. He has true top of the rotation potential, but as a high school pitcher, he naturally comes with the considerable risk of completely flopping. Gore signed for $6.7 million, which is $31,900 above slot.
2-39: C Luis Campusano (my rank: 51)
Another riser in this draft class, Campusano hit his way to the top of the catching class with M.J. Melendez (Royals, 2-52), coming from high school near Augusta, Georgia. The first thing scouts noticed was that he came into the season in excellent physical condition, which is a plus both on the field, where it helps performance, and off the field, where it hints towards a strong work ethic. While he doesn't project to win any Gold Gloves, he's good enough behind the plate to be able to stick there, though high school catchers have a low success rate historically. At the plate, he is power over contact, showing plus power from a simple swing, but he hasn't proven his ability to make contact against advanced pitching. If he can't make contact, he can't get to his power, and that renders everything else useless. He's got some Rod Barajas in him, but he could end up a far superior player to the former catcher. He'll have to make contact to do so, though. He signed for $1.3 million, $460,700 below slot.
CBB-69: C Blake Hunt (my rank: 96)
Hunt, a southern California high school product, will have a lot of work to do to reach his ceiling. He's great defensively, actually better behind the plate than Campusano, but his swing has more issues. Hunt possesses some power potential with his short, powerful swing, but he doesn't get much extension and his stride doesn't gain any ground. The Padres will have to toy with both the stride and his swing path, giving him lots of bust potential, but between him and Campusano, the Padres are hoping to get their next MLB catcher. Hunt signed for $1.6 million, $751,400 above slot.
3-78: OF Mason House (my rank: 85)
For some reason, all of the public baseball video on House amounts to one swing, so I have to lean heavily on online scouting reports. He's a power left handed bat who scouts had a tough time evaluating because he didn't play any major showcase events, and his small town Whitehouse, Texas high school didn't play any high level competition. From that one in-game swing I saw online, the swing seems a bit long, but being raw is forgivable in his case. He's a good athlete who can run, so he's not a one-dimensional bat, and he'll be an interesting prospect to follow. House signed for $732,200, at slot for the 78th pick.
4-108: RHP Sam Keating (unranked)
Keating is on the right trajectory, with his velocity and stuff improving steadily over the past year. He began sitting consistently in the low 90's this spring, and his slider and curveball have become more distinct from each other. He has a loose arm and an easy delivery, so as long as he stays healthy and continues his current path, he could be a big league starter. Standing 6'3", he's a classic starting pitching prospect. Keating signed for $900,000, which is $403,000 over slot.
26-768: OF Daniel Cabrera (my rank: 73)
Cabrera won't sign here in the 26th round, likely instead attending LSU, but he's a solid hit over power prospect. He has a quick left handed, line drive swing, and he should be a safe bet to hit for average and get on base at higher levels. However, most of his other tools are at or below average, and he isn't overall an exciting prospect. That could change after three years in Baton Rouge, but for now, he'll have to prove he can be more than a one-dimensional player.
Others: 5th rounder Jonny Homza comes from South Anchorage High School in Alaska, but the Padres were able to buy him out of attending Hawaii for $250,000, which is $121,200 under slot. He was drafted as a third baseman despite his ability to catch, and he has a strong swing that is similar to Blake Hunt's. As an extreme cold weather player, he has a lot of work to do, but it could pay off. 9th rounder Alex Cunningham was an integral part of Coastal Carolina's run to the 2016 NCAA Championship, going 10-4 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but he returned to school this year and was even better. As a senior, he went 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, striking out 117 batters in 106 innings while walking just 24. Already 23, he should be a quick mover through the minors, already seeing a promotion to High Class A Lake Elsinore. 10th rounder Dominic Taccolini played four years at Arkansas, alongside the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Zach Jackson, and Blaine Knight, but he never quite put it together on the mound. He finished with a decent senior year, going 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP against tough SEC competition, striking out 49 in 51 innings. Taccolini will also be a quick mover through the minors, likely as a reliever whose stuff could suddenly jump forward in pro ball. 19th rounder Nick Feight was a big reason that UNC-Wilmington's offense was among the most feared in college baseball in 2016, slashing .349/.412/.726 with 21 home runs against admittedly weak Colonial Athletic Association competition. He took a small step back in 2017, slashing .293/.355/.536 with 15 home runs as a junior, and as a first baseman, his bat will have to carry him. The Northern Virginia native (Battlefield HS) performed reasonably well on the Cape (.270/.316/.416), but he's likely an organizational bat unless he can take a big step forward offensively.
Sunday, June 11, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: Catchers
First Tier: Nobody
Second Tier: Luis Campusano, M.J. Melendez, Riley Adams, Evan Skoug
Third Tier: Connor Wong, Matt Whatley, Daulton Varsho, Blake Hunt, Joey Morgan
Others: Sam McMillan, Zach Jackson, Chris Williams
Catching is typically difficult to come by at the college level. This year in particular, there's almost none of it. None likely even have a chance of going in the first round, unless they sign an underslot, and it might be the biggest weakness of the draft class. That said, here are the best of what we have. Some of them have been profiled in other demographics, and will be profiled again.
Tier I
As I said, there are no top tier catchers. Each one comes with their own significant risks.
Tier II (Campusano, Melendez, Adams, Skoug)
Two high schoolers, Luis Campusano and M.J. Melendez, lead the pack. Both are solid defenders with their own issues, both have a lot of power projection, and both have a lot of swing and miss in their games. Their outlooks and potential risk/rewards are actually so similar that I have them ranked right next to each other in my top 100. That said, they are in fact different players, with different swings and different defensive holes in their game. Campusano, who got himself into excellent shape this season, generates power through his strength and a clean swing that he is constantly tweaking, and I along with others believe there is more to come. Meanwhile, Melendez gets his power from a rotation swing in which he whips his energy from his lower half up through his torso and arms, thereby whipping the bat through the zone with great speed and force. Campusano has a much thicker build, but Melendez is more agile and can use what he has more efficiently, giving them roughly equal outlooks on power. Both have question marks about future contact, Campusano more because of a simple lack of being acclimated to high-level arms, and Melendez because of the significant bat wrap he has before his swing, as well as the length and nature of the swing itself. Again, though they have different reasons for their swing and miss, the net sum is about equal. On defense, Melendez gets the slight edge because he is better at blocking balls and moving around behind the plate. That said, Campusano isn't bad at that either, and they both have excellent arm strength. If you like the upside of a Joe Mauer type catcher, Melendez is your guy, while if you like the more traditionally stocky and durable Russell Martin mold, go with Campusano. At the college level, Riley Adams and Evan Skoug are so different that they aren't worth comparing. Adams, out of the University of San Diego, gets frequent comparisons to fellow former Torero Kris Bryant, though more because of his mechanics than because of his offensive outlook. He lacks a standout tool, but he can barrel baseballs up and can be a serviceable defender. Overall, it looks like a backup catcher profile, but it's a safer bet than Campusano or Melendez due to his career .305/.411/.504 line in San Diego's conference, the WCC. Evan Skoug, as profiled in the power bats demographic, has the best present pop of any player on this list, but his huge strikeout issues make him a risky pick, even for a college player. Another negative is that he has a decent chance of being forced to move to first base, as he is not on the defensive caliber of Adams, but a positive would be his strong work ethic and leadership skills. He is reportedly working extremely hard to hone his defensive skills and remain a catcher. Basically, nothing about him his neutral; scouts love his power and work ethic, but hate his strikeouts and aren't satisfied with his defense.
Tier III (Wong, Whatley, Varsho, Hunt, Morgan)
Connor Wong, as I stated in the last post, is only a catcher because he ended up behind a plate and realized he was pretty good. He's an above average runner, not just for a catcher but for any type of player, giving him a very unique profile. As a speedster with all around decent hitting abilities, he could end up in the Austin Barnes mold in which he splits time behind the plate and in the infield. Two players in less competitive conferences, Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley and UW-Milwaukee's Daulton Varsho, have played each other about even this season. Whatley slashed .302/.446/.509 with 11 home runs in the Summit League despite playing better in his sophomore season, while Varsho finished at .362/.490/.643 in the Horizon League. Both have thunder in their bats, generating plus power, but Varsho's overall better contact ability make him the better hitter, in my opinion. However, Whatley is the best defensive college catcher with a chance to go in the top 100 picks. Varsho, meanwhile, is nearly as good with the glove, but lags behind not only Whatley but most of the class with his below average arm. Both project to go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and who goes first is anybody's call. Blake Hunt is the only high school catcher in this tier (though Sam McMillan narrowly missed), with upside as high as Campusano or Melendez but more risk. He has a lot of mechanical issues in his swing, but they shouldn't be too difficult to fix and he could be an above average hitter. His calling card is his defense, which is the best among high school catchers. Overall, he's a less advanced Matt Whatley. Lastly, Joey Morgan joined Wong in the last post, as he projects as pretty average across the board. He should be able to stick behind home plate, and he should hit enough to be a backup, but nothing really jumps off the page with him. He's a breakout guy this year, so those that value trajectory would be inclined to take him before Whatley, who slumped this year.
Second Tier: Luis Campusano, M.J. Melendez, Riley Adams, Evan Skoug
Third Tier: Connor Wong, Matt Whatley, Daulton Varsho, Blake Hunt, Joey Morgan
Others: Sam McMillan, Zach Jackson, Chris Williams
Catching is typically difficult to come by at the college level. This year in particular, there's almost none of it. None likely even have a chance of going in the first round, unless they sign an underslot, and it might be the biggest weakness of the draft class. That said, here are the best of what we have. Some of them have been profiled in other demographics, and will be profiled again.
Tier I
As I said, there are no top tier catchers. Each one comes with their own significant risks.
Tier II (Campusano, Melendez, Adams, Skoug)
Two high schoolers, Luis Campusano and M.J. Melendez, lead the pack. Both are solid defenders with their own issues, both have a lot of power projection, and both have a lot of swing and miss in their games. Their outlooks and potential risk/rewards are actually so similar that I have them ranked right next to each other in my top 100. That said, they are in fact different players, with different swings and different defensive holes in their game. Campusano, who got himself into excellent shape this season, generates power through his strength and a clean swing that he is constantly tweaking, and I along with others believe there is more to come. Meanwhile, Melendez gets his power from a rotation swing in which he whips his energy from his lower half up through his torso and arms, thereby whipping the bat through the zone with great speed and force. Campusano has a much thicker build, but Melendez is more agile and can use what he has more efficiently, giving them roughly equal outlooks on power. Both have question marks about future contact, Campusano more because of a simple lack of being acclimated to high-level arms, and Melendez because of the significant bat wrap he has before his swing, as well as the length and nature of the swing itself. Again, though they have different reasons for their swing and miss, the net sum is about equal. On defense, Melendez gets the slight edge because he is better at blocking balls and moving around behind the plate. That said, Campusano isn't bad at that either, and they both have excellent arm strength. If you like the upside of a Joe Mauer type catcher, Melendez is your guy, while if you like the more traditionally stocky and durable Russell Martin mold, go with Campusano. At the college level, Riley Adams and Evan Skoug are so different that they aren't worth comparing. Adams, out of the University of San Diego, gets frequent comparisons to fellow former Torero Kris Bryant, though more because of his mechanics than because of his offensive outlook. He lacks a standout tool, but he can barrel baseballs up and can be a serviceable defender. Overall, it looks like a backup catcher profile, but it's a safer bet than Campusano or Melendez due to his career .305/.411/.504 line in San Diego's conference, the WCC. Evan Skoug, as profiled in the power bats demographic, has the best present pop of any player on this list, but his huge strikeout issues make him a risky pick, even for a college player. Another negative is that he has a decent chance of being forced to move to first base, as he is not on the defensive caliber of Adams, but a positive would be his strong work ethic and leadership skills. He is reportedly working extremely hard to hone his defensive skills and remain a catcher. Basically, nothing about him his neutral; scouts love his power and work ethic, but hate his strikeouts and aren't satisfied with his defense.
Tier III (Wong, Whatley, Varsho, Hunt, Morgan)
Connor Wong, as I stated in the last post, is only a catcher because he ended up behind a plate and realized he was pretty good. He's an above average runner, not just for a catcher but for any type of player, giving him a very unique profile. As a speedster with all around decent hitting abilities, he could end up in the Austin Barnes mold in which he splits time behind the plate and in the infield. Two players in less competitive conferences, Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley and UW-Milwaukee's Daulton Varsho, have played each other about even this season. Whatley slashed .302/.446/.509 with 11 home runs in the Summit League despite playing better in his sophomore season, while Varsho finished at .362/.490/.643 in the Horizon League. Both have thunder in their bats, generating plus power, but Varsho's overall better contact ability make him the better hitter, in my opinion. However, Whatley is the best defensive college catcher with a chance to go in the top 100 picks. Varsho, meanwhile, is nearly as good with the glove, but lags behind not only Whatley but most of the class with his below average arm. Both project to go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and who goes first is anybody's call. Blake Hunt is the only high school catcher in this tier (though Sam McMillan narrowly missed), with upside as high as Campusano or Melendez but more risk. He has a lot of mechanical issues in his swing, but they shouldn't be too difficult to fix and he could be an above average hitter. His calling card is his defense, which is the best among high school catchers. Overall, he's a less advanced Matt Whatley. Lastly, Joey Morgan joined Wong in the last post, as he projects as pretty average across the board. He should be able to stick behind home plate, and he should hit enough to be a backup, but nothing really jumps off the page with him. He's a breakout guy this year, so those that value trajectory would be inclined to take him before Whatley, who slumped this year.
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