The Rangers went aggressive and took easily the best pitcher and arguably the best player in the draft with their second overall pick, Vanderbilt right hander Jack Leiter. That pick alone will define the class, but they continued to be aggressive later on and I like what they came away with. After going more than a million dollars below slot on second rounder Aaron Zavala, who in my opinion was a supreme talent anyways, they went well above slot to divert three high schoolers away from Texas Tech, LSU, and Florida State, respectively, over their next three picks. Then in rounds six through ten, they went back below slot to save up some money for a couple big splurges on day three. As I mentioned, Leiter is clearly and obviously the headliner, but there's plenty of upside in those other high school picks (especially fourth rounder Ian Moller) and my far and away favorite pick is Zavala, who I think will be a stud and was an absolute steal at the bonus they paid him.
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1-2: RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt. My rank: #1.
Jesuit High School star Jordan Lawlar was mocked to the Rangers all year long, so while some in the Metroplex may have been disappointed to see Texas skip over the hometown kid from Irving, they did pick up arguably the best player in this draft class and top on my board. Jack Leiter has had nothing but praise heaped on him since he got to Vanderbilt, and he's deserved every bit of it as more or less the consummate pitching prospect. He was absolute dynamite this spring, posting a 2.13 ERA and a 179/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings against tough competition, with those 179 strikeouts tying with teammate Kumar Rocker to lead Division I. He allowed just one earned run over his first six starts, including 19.2 consecutive no-hit innings against Oklahoma State, South Carolina Missouri, and LSU, then after faltering a little bit in the middle of the season, got back on track and cruised the rest of the way. Leiter is absolutely the real deal. His fastball has steadily ticked up throughout his amateur career and now sits comfortably in the low to mid 90's with occasional peaks in the upper 90's. He throws both a curve and a slider, which can flatten out at times but more often than not look at least above average, if not plus at times. The curve is more top to bottom and can just freeze hitters, while the slider has more lateral movement and while there's not as much depth, it's harder and a bit sharper. His changeup is a bit behind the other pitches, looking more or less like an average pitch. A bit smaller at a skinny 6', he has picture perfect mechanics that enable him to efficiently channel every muscle in his body into each pitch, exploding off the mound and getting to his peak velocities without losing control. The northern New Jersey native has pretty much ideal fastball metrics, as his elite extension enables him to release the ball out in front like he was 6'3" or 6'4" while his shorter stature helps him keep his release point low, putting tremendous ride on his fastball. Overall, he really just needs to work on consistency. At his best, Leiter is ~literally~ unhittable as we saw in the aforementioned no-hit streak, and when you watch it live, you can just feel it through your TV. It seems hopeless to stand in the box against him. However, as we saw with a couple tough starts against Mississippi State and Florida in the middle of the season (two regional hosts), there are times when his stuff can flatten out and his command can fall to fringe-average. His fastball can get hit hard when he doesn't get it up in the zone, and when those breaking balls back up a bit, hitters can suddenly get their confidence back. That doesn't happen often though, and he knows how to snap back into the zone. Then he'll pump 95-96 right by you, get you to swing over a slider off the plate, and freeze you with a hammer curveball, all located with precision. To wrap it all up, Leiter has exceptional makeup and probably the best mound presence I've ever seen from an amateur, with the look of a stone cold killer at all times on the mound. He works extremely hard at his craft and has excellent feel for pitching, all of which will certainly serve him well in pro ball. He signed for $7.92 million, the largest bonus given out this year by more than a million dollars and $132,100 above slot value.
2-38: OF Aaron Zavala, Oregon. My rank: #35.
I would have loved this pick for the Rangers if they signed him for full slot, so the fact that it only took third round money to get Aaron Zavala means that this is one of my favorites in the entire draft. He wasn't really on the radar as a freshman, but since the start of 2020 he's hit .398/.519/.598 with ten home runs and a 34/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games, just forcing his way into early round conversation. Zavala has a lightning quick but effortless swing from the left side that opens up a whole host of opportunities for him as a hitter. His keen eye and exceptional feel for the barrel enable him to spray line drives around the field as consistently as anybody, while the sheer speed with which he whips that barrel through the zone helps him post high exit velocities that could be turned into more home run power in pro ball despite his skinny 6' frame. Honestly, the whole offensive package reminds me a little bit of a left handed Nick Gonzales, who went seventh overall to the Pirates last year, and I think he'll take to pro pitching very easily. His line drive approach and smaller frame have led to some questioning his future power output, though I think if the Rangers can help him add a little loft, we could see at least 15-20 a year if not more to go along with high on-base percentages. The Oregon native is an average athlete who won't be anything special in the outfield, but the bat is absolutely enough to carry him to a full time roll in my opinion. To top it off, he's young for the class and only turned 21 a couple weeks before the draft, giving him just a bit more opportunity to develop physically. Zavala signed for $830,000, which was more than $1.1 million below slot value, and is hitless in his first eight at bats (plus a walk) in the ACL.
3-73: SS Cameron Cauley, Barbers Hill HS [TX]. My rank: #137.
The Rangers are usually liable to select at least one athletic high school shortstop in the early rounds, and Cameron Cauley will follow in the footsteps of Thomas Saggese (2020), Cody Freeman (2019), Jonathan Ornelas (2018), Chris Seise (2017), and...you get it. Cauley, a product of Barbers Hill High School in Mont Belvieu just east of Houston, had a lot of fans in the region and perfectly fits in with the group ahead of him. He has a ton of twitchy athleticism in his 5'10" frame and gets the most out of it, playing hard on both sides of the ball and endearing himself to scouts. He makes a ton of hard contact and is almost always finding the barrel, shooting line drives around the field from gap to gap. Cauley hasn't had much trouble handling advanced pitching and can show some ambush power when he gets one in his wheelhouse, but he knows his game and for the most part he's very content being that line drive hitter. Given the height, it's hard to project more than average power in the future and he probably ends up a tick below, which would mean 10-15 home runs a year at peak, though his plus speed gives him another dimension with which to impact the game. He should be able to stick at shortstop with his speed and springy actions, though if he has to move to second base, he could be an asset there. It's a utility projection with a full time ceiling if he can continue to tack on strength and not sacrifice contact ability for power, in which case he could be more in the 15-20 home run range annually. Committed to Texas Tech, he instead signed for $1 million flat, which was $162,600 above slot value, and he's slashing .267/.313/.378 through eleven games in the ACL.
4-103: C Ian Moller, Wahlert Catholic HS [IA]. My rank: #106.
Ian Moller might have the highest ceiling of any high school catcher in this class outside of twelfth overall pick and current Mariner Harry Ford. He's a showcase monster, showing the massive tools that scouts dream about, and the Rangers have a chance to put that all together. Moller has an absolutely gorgeous right handed swing, a big, explosive uppercut that produces huge exit velocities and sends baseballs impressive distances. At times, he's shown the ability to catch up to advanced pitching as well and when he was going well, he was creeping his way towards the first round range on my board. However, he can be very inconsistent in games and that big swing can really get him in trouble at times, so while he shows a solid average to even above average pure hit tool at his best, it can be below average at others. There were some concerns about that this spring even against ordinary competition in the Midwest. Given his combination of plus raw power and his flashes of being able to tap it against stronger competition, there's All Star upside with the bat here if the Rangers can bring it out of him, but it will take work. We have a similar story on the defensive side. Moller has a strong arm behind the plate with a quick release that helps it play up further, and at times he's shown above average ability with the glove as well. Like his bat, the glovework is inconsistent in games, and at times I've seen him get frustrated with himself when he doesn't get the result he wants. Honestly, when he's at his best, there are really no holes in this profile, so the Texas development system will really have to bear down on the incredible natural talent and help him get to a place where he's finding it consistently. The Dubuque, Iowa native was committed to LSU but instead signed for $700,000, which was $134,400 above slot value, and he's hitting .240/.406/.480 with a home run through eight games in the ACL.
5-134: LHP Mitch Bratt, Georgia Premier Academy. Unranked.
Mitch Bratt wasn't really thought of as a top five round pick, but the Rangers saw something they liked in the MLB Draft League where he struck out 44 in 28 innings for West Virginia. Bratt is all projection at this point, sitting around 90 with his fastball but slowly creeping up towards the low 90's. He adds a big curveball with great depth and shape that functions as his best pitch for now and will always be a weapon for him. There's a changeup that he shows solid feel for as well, though it's a third pitch for now and will need more refinement. The 6'1" lefty has plenty of projection remaining and should continue to add power to all of his pitches, which he will need in order to succeed in pro ball. The good news is that he's a relatively polished strike thrower who commands the zone well for his age and controls at bats from the start, attacking hitters with a game plan and seldom hurting himself with frequent hitters' counts. That will bode well for his ceiling as he gets stronger and watches that fastball continue to tick up, so he has mid-rotation potential. Adding to the appeal is age, as he is young for the class and only turned 18 the week before the draft. The Ontario native was committed to Florida State but signed for $850,000, which was $431,800 above slot value, and he struck out three of the four he faced in his ACL debut.
12-344: RHP Jackson Leath, Tennessee. Unranked.
While Cameron Cauley is also from Texas as a Mont Belvieu native, Jackson Leath is the only player from North Texas drafted by the Rangers this spring. Leath grew up in Waxahachie just past the southern reaches of the Metroplex, then started off at Blinn JC in the Bryan-College Station area. After two seasons there, he transferred over to Tennessee, but has seen both his seasons cut short in Knoxville. In 2020, it was the COVID shutdown, and in 2021, it was a major hamstring injury that ended his season in just his second start. In his limited action, he's been dynamite, with a 1.08 ERA and a 37/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings, though none of those came against SEC opponents. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball as a starter but can touch 97 in short stints, while his slider is a weapon in the mid to upper 80's and helps him pick up most of his strikeouts. Leath also has feel for a curveball and a changeup, with both flashing average and the curveball occasionally above average, but it's really the fastball/slider combination that is his bread and butter. The 6'1" righty already faced some reliever questions prior to his hamstring injury in 2021, so for now, it's probably a relief outlook given his fringe-average command, skinny frame, and relatively high effort delivery (though it has improved). The Rangers could try to develop him as a starter if they want to be patient, but given that he already turned 22 in June, they may just want to get him moving through the system as a power two-pitch reliever. Leath signed for $125,000.
14-404: C Tucker Mitchell, State College of Florida Manatee-Sarasota. Unranked.
Now this is a fun one for me because I actually grew up playing baseball with Tucker Mitchell's older brother and I remember occasionally seeing him around tagging along to our games, though unfortunately I haven't seen him since elementary school so I don't have an inside edge on his game. An IMG product, he began his career at FAU but played sparingly and transferred to SCF Manatee-Sarasota for his sophomore year, where his stock exploded after hitting .382/.523/.657 with nine home runs and a 22/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He continued to show well in the MLB Draft League (.292/.415/.453), where he was teammates with fifth rounder Mitch Bratt on the West Virginia Black Bears, and ended up earning fifth round money to sign here in the fourteenth round. Mitchell shows above average raw power from the right side, having cleaned up his swing considerably since high school and adding loft much more naturally, while his strong 6'1" frame gives him plenty of leverage. He's a very patient hitter who was in total control of the strike zone against solid JuCo pitching in Florida and still drew a healthy share of walks in the MLB Draft League, though it did come with a bit of an elevated strikeout rate. I don't know much about his defense, though video from his high school days shows a bit of a choppy glove and a tendency to rush his transfer. That was a long time ago though, and there's a good chance that has improved with his glove. Committed to NC State, the Northern Virginia native instead signed for $325,000, of which $200,000 counts against the Rangers' bonus pool, and he's hitting .143/.250/.357 through four games in the ACL.
18-524: RHP Kyle Larsen, TNXL Academy [FL]. Unranked.
Kyle Larsen may have gone in the 18th round, but the Rangers see a supreme talent here and gave him third/fourth round money to sign (actually, it splits the different between the last pick of the third round and first pick of the fourth round). He's a big kid at a listed 6'2", 240 pounds, and he channels that size into power stuff. Larsen sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and is regularly up to 94-95, adding a sharp curveball that could be a plus pitch in time in addition to a changeup. He puts high spin rates on both his fastball and curveball that cause both to play up, and his low effort delivery means he gets power behind his stuff without exerting too much. The Orlando-area native can sometimes get offline with his delivery and will need to be a little more consistent with it, but the Rangers don't see that as a big issue and believe he'll iron it out pretty easily in time. Larsen was committed to Florida and the Rangers saw him as the type of guy who would develop into a workhorse ace for the Gators, then come out in 2024 with a shot to go in the top two rounds after a consistent run of strong performance in the SEC. He signed for $575,000, of which $450,000 counts against the Rangers' bonus pool.
