Obviously, every commentary about the Angels' farm system must be led by Jo Adell, the power hitting, speedy future star who will hopefully help Mike Trout actually get into the playoffs. Outside of him, it's actually a fairly imbalanced farm system, with a deep crop of maybe-could-be starting pitching, athletic but raw outfielders, and actually-pretty-interesting middle infielders, while the system is almost completely devoid of corner infielders and catching. Guys like Brandon Marsh, Will Wilson, Jeremiah Jackson, Hector Yan, and Jose Soriano have interesting upside, though only Marsh has actually played above Class A from that group. It's a really interesting system that has a good chance of turning out very little (beyond Adell, of course), but a lot of guys are just an adjustment or two away from becoming potential impact players.
Affiliates: AAA Salt Lake City Bees, AA Mobile BayBears*, High A Inland Empire 66ers, Class A Burlington Bees, rookie Orem Owlz, complex level AZL and DSL Angels
*AA affiliate will move from Mobile, AL to Huntsville, AL in 2020
Catcher
- Jack Kruger (2020 Age: 25): There's very little catching talent at all in this system, so potential backup Jack Kruger stands out as perhaps the best. A former 20th round pick out of Mississippi State, he had a strong 2018 season and slashed .299/.357/.413 between High A Inland Empire and AA Mobile, but a return to Mobile this year saw him slash just .240/.300/.309 with three home runs and a 69/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games. He's supposedly a strong defender, and by stealing 13 bases in 2018, he showed some speed and athleticism that you don't see in every backstop. Rediscovering his 2018 swing could help him land as the Angels' backup catcher at some point. As a bonus, he grew up in Westlake Village, just northwest of Los Angeles.
Corner Infield
- Jared Walsh (2020 Age: 26-27): As with catching, the Angels are pretty shallow here in the corner infield too. Jared Walsh absolutely mashed in hitter-friendly AAA Salt Lake City in 2019, slashing .325/.423/.686 with 36 home runs and a 115/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 games, though those numbers were inflated a bit by the juiced balls and thin air. He also slashed .203/.276/.329 in a 31 game major league call-up, and he comes with plus raw power from the left side of the plate that should play in the majors once he gets acclimated. He'll likely never be more than a bench bat though, as his hit tool isn't strong enough to provide enough offense to start at first base, but the fact that he hits both lefties and righties well is a good sign. Walsh has also dabbled in pitching, and as a lefty reliever this year, he put up a 4.15 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 innings in AAA and even a 1.80 ERA and a 5/6 strikeout to walk ratio in five major league innings. A fastball/curveball guy with so-so command, he likely provides more value as a hitter but should be a useful mop-up reliever as well.
- Kevin Maitan (2020 Age: 20): Maitan was one of the top prospects in recent memory coming out of Venezuela, and he was compared to Chipper Jones and Miguel Cabrera from the time he was barely a teenager. Signed by the Braves at 16 for $4.25 million, he was freed in the team's bonus scandal and signed with the Angels for another $2.2 million. However, he has yet to really tap into that tremendous upside, and he slashed .214/.278/.323 with 12 home runs and a 164/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Class A Burlington. He shows big raw power from both sides of the plate, but poor strike zone judgement and less feel for the barrel than expected has kept him from tapping it with any consistency. Originally projected to be a 30+ homer bat with on-base percentages north of .350, his upside is now more in the 20-25 home run range with mediocre on-base percentages, but the good news is that Maitan will play all of 2020 at 20 years old and he has plenty of time to reclaim that lost luster. He should stick at third base with a cannon arm and decent glovework.
- Keep an eye on: Jose Rojas, Jordan Zimmerman, Adrian Rondon
Middle Infield
- Jahmai Jones (2020 Age: 22-23): Jones was a second round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, and he's followed up big 2016 and 2017 seasons with mediocre 2018 and 2019 seasons. This year, Jones slashed .234/.308/.324 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 109/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at AA Mobile. He's a supreme athlete (if you're a football fan, you might know of his brother wide receiver T.J. Jones) with plenty of speed and quick hands that can help him avoid strikeouts. However, he's struggled to barrel the ball up much over the last couple of seasons, and he'll have to rediscover his all fields, line drive stroke if he wants to be a starting second baseman on this team, as there are a lot of middle infielders coming up behind him.
- Will Wilson (2020 Age: 21-22): The Angels' first round pick out of NC State in 2019, Wilson had a solid pro debut with rookie level Orem by slashing .275/.328/.439 with five home runs and a 47/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. He's an exciting talent with some serious pop to the pull side despite being a skinny six footer, and he's got enough bat speed and feel for the barrel to get the ball out to any field. Where he'll need to work offensively is on his plate discipline, as he's aggressive and that pull-oriented approach could be exploited in the minors. If he learns to trust his bat speed and improve his strike zone judgement, he could be a 20 homer, .350 on-base percentage type of hitter. Defensively, he's a bit raw at shortstop and may be able to stick, but his decent arm and quick reactions fit better at second base, where his decent range won't be as stretched.
- Jeremiah Jackson (2020 Age: 20): Originally thought of as a hit-over-power guy in high school in Mobile, Alabama, Jackson has bought into the launch angle revolution and while his hit tool has regressed slightly, his power has exploded. Spending 2019 in rookie ball, he slashed .266/.333/.605 with 23 home runs and a 96/24 strikeout to walk ratio in just 65 games with Orem. No other Pioneer League hitter had more than 19 home runs, and only two others hit more than 13. He gets great extension at the plate and his plus feel for the barrel has enabled 100% of his raw power to play up in games, though his home run-oriented swing led to a 33% strikeout rate against pitching that wasn't all that advanced. The good news is that when he gets a crack at full season ball in 2020, he can see if that home run swing works or if he'll need to dial it back a bit, which he is fully capable of doing. He'll be 20 for all of 2020 and he could play an above average second or third base if he moves off of shortstop, so he has time to figure it out.
- Kyren Paris (2020 Age: 18): One of the youngest players in the 2019 draft, Kyren Paris didn't turn 18 until shortly before this article was published and he therefore will have two full seasons in the minor leagues as a teenager. A second rounder out of high school in Oakley, California (about 30 miles west of Oakland), Paris is a natural ballplayer with smooth actions at shortstop as well as a smooth swing at the plate. He's so young and skinny that it's hard to know exactly what kind of power he'll grow into, but for now, he's hit over power with some speed and plate discipline. In the end, he could be a guy who hits 10-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and good defense at shortstop, though he obviously has a long, long way to go to get there.
- Arol Vera (2020 Age: 17): Even younger than Kyren Paris is Arol Vera, a Venezuelan shortstop who only turned 17 in September. He signed with the Angels for $2 million and hasn't played a professional game yet, but just watching some video of his swing, it's easy to see what the Angels like about the switch hitter. He's a wiry 6'2" with a very athletic frame, and he produces a ton of torque from both sides of the plate with good feel for the strike zone and barrel already. Of course, he has an even longer way to go than Paris, but he's definitely a name to watch as he begins play in the Dominican Summer League as a 17 year old in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Roberto Baldoquin, Leonardo Rivas, Livan Soto, Justin Jones
Outfield
- Jo Adell (2020 Age: 21): If it weren't for Jo Adell, the Angels might have the worst farm system in the game. Adell is not only their headliner, but he might be the best outfield prospect in all of baseball. Injuries kept him off the field to start 2019, but he still came back and slashed .289/.359/.475 with ten home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 94/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 games for High A Inland Empire, AA Mobile, and AAA Salt Lake City. Those aren't the loudest numbers, but he reached AAA just a few months after turning 20 years old despite injuries keeping him off the field. He has light tower power, gets to it much more consistently than was originally expected when he was a first round pick out of high school in Louisville in 2017, and shows plenty of speed to make him an all-around offensive threat. Defensively, he uses his speed well in the outfield and could play center field if it weren't for Mike Trout, but his cannon arm makes him more than a fit for right field, where he could win Gold Gloves. Overall, he has the upside of a Christian Yelich-type player with a stronger arm, and even without hitting his ceiling he could still hit 25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages, speed, and good defense.
- Brandon Marsh (2020 Age: 22): A second round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2016, Marsh has been in Adell's shadow a little bit, but he's performed well under the radar. This year, he slashed .300/.383/.428 with seven home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 92/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games at AA Mobile. He has a quick barrel and generates good power from his 6'4" frame, but he's also been pounding the ball into the ground a lot and that has kept his power from playing up in games. Learning a thing or two from fellow Angels prospect Jeremiah Jackson could help him unlock a ton of power by lifting the ball more, though there's just enough swing and miss in his game that it wouldn't be an easy shift. He also has speed and a strong arm that helps him steal bases and play good defense, so Marsh provides close to a complete package, though obviously not with tools as loud as Adell's. If he can tap into that power, he probably ends up with 20-25 home runs per season, decent on-base percentages, and some speed.
- Jordyn Adams (2020 Age: 20): A two sport star who was committed to UNC as a four star wide receiver, Adams spent most of 2019 at Class A Burlington and slashed .257/.351/.369 with eight home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 111/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games. He has a quick barrel and a smooth swing, and his plate discipline ability to find that barrel has improved as he's developed. He doesn't have a ton of pop and likely never will have more than 15-20 home run power, but he does have the ability to spray balls into the gaps and use his plus-plus speed on the bases. Overall, he still has a lot to work on including continuing to refine his hit tool as well as his reads in the outfield, but he will also spend the entire 2020 season at just 20 years old.
- D'Shawn Knowles (2020 Age: 19): One of two toolsy Bahamian outfielders to play for rookie-level Orem this year, D'Shawn Knowles has outperformed Trent Deveaux so far. In 2019, playing the whole season at just 18 years old, Knowles slashed .241/.310/.387 with six home runs and a 76/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, numbers that were down slightly from 2018 but still respectable given his age. He's an explosive player who is still maturing physically, so it's hard to say exactly how much power he'll have down the line, but it's easy to see him at least spraying plenty of doubles and triples into the gaps while his plus speed does the rest. There are a lot of center fielders in this system, but Knowles can stick there as well. Overall, he projects as a run producing, high-ish on-base hitter who can pop anywhere from 15-30 home runs per season.
- Trent Deveaux (2020 Age: 19-20): While Knowles' feel for the game is more advanced at his age, Trent Deveaux is more tooled up. The Bahamian slashed .238/.320/.422 with with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 91/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games this year, mostly in the complex level Arizona League but with a few games up at Orem. He's definitely got some raw power to tap into, though it's mostly to the gaps now, and his blazing speed rivals that of Jordyn Adams for the best in the system. However, it hasn't really translated onto the field yet, and he struck out in 31.1% of his plate appearances against lower level competition in the Arizona League and in 48.4% (15/31) in his small sample in the Pioneer League. If Deveaux wants to catch up to the other outfielders in this system, he has to start to learn the nuances. Fortunately, he reportedly has a strong work ethic and he's working hard to learn.
- Keep an eye on: Michael Hermosillo, Bo Way, Gareth Morgan, Nonie Williams, Alexander Ramirez
Starting Pitching
- Patrick Sandoval (2020 Age: 23): Sandoval dominated across three levels in 2018 with a 2.01 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP across 122.1 innings, though he wasn't quite as effective in 2019 when he pitched in more advanced, hitter-friendly environments. Between AA Mobile and AAA Salt Lake City, mostly at the latter, he had a 5.71 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 98/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings, then he was called up to the Angels in August and posted a 5.03 ERA and a 42/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 39.1 innings. Sandoval has plenty of classic starter traits, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding three offspeed pitches in a curveball, a slider, and a changeup, all of which can be above average at times, and he showed great command in 2018. That command regressed a bit against better hitters in 2019, but he still has a good chance to be a solid left handed #4 starter as early as 2020.
- Oliver Ortega (2020 Age: 23): Ortega has improved slowly and steadily throughout his time in the minors, and this year he reached the upper minors after posting a 3.34 ERA and a 121/49 strikeout to walk ratio at High A Inland Empire. Because he struggled at AA Mobile (8.64 ERA), he finished the season with a 4.14 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 135/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 innings in all, but he's showing more and more that he could be able to stick as a starter. He's a fastball/curveball guy that sits in the mid 90's and needs to work on his changeup and command, though the command has been improving to the point where it's nearly average and could get there in time. Ultimately, it will be the changeup that determines whether he remains a starter, and for now he looks like a #3 or #4 guy at best.
- Kyle Bradish (2020 Age: 23): A fourth round pick out of New Mexico State in 2018, Bradish didn't pitch professionally that year but skipped all the way to High A Inland Empire for his pro debut this year. The results weren't spectacular, but he still exceeded expectations with a 4.28 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 120/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 innings against advanced competition in a hitters' league. Originally projected as a reliever, he delayed that potential move with his performance this year and by doing a better job of maintaining low 90's heat late into his starts. While nothing he throws grades out as a plus, his tilt and go delivery makes everything play up as it's hard to time and see his pitches. His command was a bit better than expected in 2019, and while a move to the bullpen is still possible due to the effort in his delivery, he might just be able to throw enough strikes to stick as a potential #4 starter.
- Aaron Hernandez (2020 Age: 23): Drafted a round before Bradish out of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Hernandez was also pushed aggressively to Inland Empire to begin his pro career. He didn't quite get the same results as Bradish, but the numbers were still solid as he had a 4.46 ERA, a 1.67 WHIP, and an 81/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings. He's 6'1" but his drop and drive delivery causes him to release the ball fairly low from the ground, which actually reduces his deception and makes it easier to pick his stuff up. That, combined with shaky command, has held him back somewhat, though his sinking low to mid 90's fastball and deep array of strong secondary pitches give him the chance to start in the majors. He's more durable than you'd expect given his slight frame, so there's less reliever risk than you'd think, but he might be forced into that role if he can't figure out a way to get better angle and/or deception on his pitches.
- Hector Yan (2020 Age: 21): Yan has gone completely under the radar up until this year, having thrown just 76.1 unremarkable innings over the first three years of his pro career. However, upon reaching full season ball in 2019, he took off in a huge way, posting a 3.39 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 148/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 innings in his age-20 season at Class A Burlington. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good two-plane curveball, coming from a crossfire left handed delivery that makes it very difficult to pick up his stuff. His command improved to nearly average in 2019 as well, which made all the difference in the world, and he's now a legitimate mid-rotation starter if he can continue to improve that command and add a changeup. A year from now, he could be the best pitching prospect in this system – I like him.
- Jose Soriano (2020 Age: 21): Soriano dominated in his first two years of pro ball before getting knocked around a bit in his first taste of full season ball in 2018, but he bounced back in 2019 by posting a 2.51 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 92/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings, mostly at Burlington. While Yan is only 5'11", Soriano is 6'3" and sits in the mid 90's with his fastball with the promise of more velocity to come. He also throws a good curveball and a decent changeup, though his command has held him back to this point. He's got better raw stuff than Yan, and he has a higher ceiling if he can figure out his command, but I personally like Yan better as a prospect.
- Robinson Pina (2020 Age: 21): Pina was another breakout star in 2019, posting a 3.83 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 146/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 innings at Burlington. His fastball is down in the low 90's but he shows the potential for more at 6'4", and his hammer curveball helped him rack up the strikeouts. As has been the story with most of these Angels pitchers, command is what holds him back, and he carries a bit more reliever risk than Yan and Soriano.
- Jack Kochanowicz (2020 Age: 19): Drafted in the third round out of a Philadelphia-area high school in 2019, Kochanowicz has not pitched professionally yet but brings a low 90's fastball and a big curveball from a 6'6" frame while adding a changeup he has some feel for and solid command. He's fairly similar as a prospect to Stiward Aquino, except that he's a year and a half younger and doesn't come with the same injury history. For now, he's a rather generic projectable high school arm that's slightly more advanced than most kids his age, but it's still hard to say exactly what kind of starting pitcher he'll become.
- Keep an eye on: Andrew Wantz, Chris Rodriguez, Stiward Aquino
Relief Pitching
- Luis Madero (2020 Age: 23): Madero took a huge step forward in 2018 (3.49 ERA, 95/27 K/BB) to establish himself as one of the better arms in the Angels' system, though he was knocked around a bit this year and finished with a 5.03 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 98/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.2 innings, mostly at AA Mobile. Madero sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball, and while his command has improved up to average, his lack of a changeup or anything that really sets him apart caused him to get hit in AA. Taking a step forward with that changeup could help him remain a potential back-end starter, though a move to the bullpen could help his fastball/curveball combination play up and get him to the majors in 2020.
- Jeremy Beasley (2020 Age: 23): Beasley was excellent across three levels in 2018 (2.66 ERA, 104/32 K/BB), then came down to Earth with a 4.49 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 115/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.1 innings, mostly at Mobile but also with a few innings up at AAA Salt Lake City. He's more of a fastball/changeup guy with largely ordinary stuff across the board and average command, and he may still profile as a #5 starter if he can get that command to a tick above average, but ultimately the whole package might be a bit light for starting in the majors. He profiles well as a long reliever.
- Keep an eye on: Joe Gatto, Connor Higgins, Chad Sykes
Showing posts with label Will Wilson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Will Wilson. Show all posts
Saturday, November 16, 2019
Sunday, June 30, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels
First five rounds: Will Wilson (1-15), Kyren Paris (2-55), Jack Kochanowicz (3-92), Erik Rivera (4-121), Garrett Stallings (5-151)
Also notable: Zach Peek (6-181), Kyle Brnovich (8-241), Zach Linginfelter (9-271), Spencer Jones (31-931)
It was a pitching-heavy draft for the Angels, because after taking position players with three of their first four picks, they went on a run of 16 pitchers in 17 selections from the fifth through the 21st rounds. There are a lot of back-end rotation types in that range with reliever risk, though I would expect at least one or two of Garrett Stallings, Zach Peek, Davis Daniel, Kyle Brnovich, and Zach Linginfelter to break through as a starter. Back at the top of the draft, they picked up a couple of athletic infielders who play above their size, and overslot third rounder Jack Kochanowicz has some very high upside on the mound.
1-15: SS Will Wilson (North Carolina State, my rank: 16)
The Angels are getting an impact player on both sides of the ball here with Will Wilson. Wilson, who grew up outside of Charlotte in Kings Mountain, North Carolina, had a huge year for NC State by slashing .335/.425/.661 with 16 home runs and a 46/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games, showing a wide ranging skill set that will play at the next level. He's listed at 6' and 185 pounds, though even that seems a little rich for me because he's pretty slight when it comes to size. However, he plays above that size because he generates a ton of torque in his right handed swing, producing plenty of pull side power while also showing the ability to spray hard line drives anywhere around the field. His plate discipline is average, as he shows some swing and miss in his aggressive approach, but he also has made some progress with his pitch selection and I don't think it will be an issue in pro ball. Defensively, he's athletic and has the chance to stick at shortstop with his strong-enough arm, but he's not the quickest and I think his skill set is just a bit stretched there. If he moves over to second base, where I think his skill set is a better match, he should be an above average to plus defender there. Overall, he reminds me somewhat of Dustin Pedroia due to his size (though he's slightly taller), swing, and defense, and I think his numbers could be similar, just with a little more power and with a slightly lower on-base percentage. Also working in Wilson's favor is his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until later in July. He signed for $3.4 million, which was $490,000 below slot, and he is slashing .222/.333/.500 with a home run and more walks (three) than strikeouts (two) in his first five games at rookie-level Orem.
2-55: SS Kyren Paris (Freedom HS [CA], my rank: 49)
The Angels must know what kind of player they were looking for, because Paris is a similar player to Wilson. He's listed similarly at 6' and 165 pounds, and he's built similarly slight. He doesn't have quite as much power at this point as he is much more comfortable spraying line drives around the field, and his smooth right handed swing is well suited for that. He finds the barrel easily and should have no trouble posting solid on-base percentages, and if he fills out a little more, he could hit around 15 home runs per season. Defensively, he's more likely than Wilson to stick at shortstop as he shows a strong arm and natural feel for the position, and his above average speed helps him on both sides of the ball. Additionally, the Oakley, California native (between the East Bay and Central Valley) doesn't turn 18 until November, which makes him one of the youngest players in the entire draft, and his game is very advanced for his age. Overall, the best word to describe Paris' game is "smooth," and he'll hope to add more impact as he grows and matures. He signed away from a Cal-Berkeley commitment for $1.4 million, which was $90,000 above slot.
3-92: RHP Jack Kochanowicz (Harriton HS [PA], my rank: 69)
Using the money they saved on Wilson (plus a little extra), the Angels went overslot here to grab one of the second-tier high school pitchers in the third round. The Philadelphia-area native is 6'6" and gets great extension and angle on the ball, which makes his stuff plays up. His fastball sits in the low 90's and he adds a good curveball that gets some swings and misses, and it's easy to see him adding a little more power as he fills out and gets some pro coaching under his belt. Like most high school pitchers, he needs to work on his changeup and get a bit more consistent with his command, but neither are red flags at this point and his development should be fairly straightforward. Guys like this work out often and can turn into mid-rotation starters or better, but they also flop often and either get hurt or see their command fall apart or something. So, Kochanowicz could really become anything. Committed to Virginia, he signed for $1.25 million, which was $612,400 above slot.
4-121: OF Erik Rivera (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, unranked)
A two-way player from Puerto Rico, Erik Rivera drew significant interest as a 6'2" lefty who could sit in the low 90's at times. However, the Angels selected him in the fourth round as a outfielder, and they're hoping he can ride his big raw power to a successful major league career. Rivera generates a ton of torque, loft, and whip from a big left handed swing, but with that violent process comes a tendency for his head to fly out and plenty of swing and miss. Those concerns are serious enough that scouts aren't sure that he'll be able to get to his raw power regularly in pro ball, and he'll probably have to tone down his swing a bit in order to make more contact. Defensively, he's not the fastest guy on the field but he has plenty of arm strength and should be able to play a solid right field. It took $597,500, which was $123,800 above slot, to sign him away from a Florida International University commitment, and he's slashing .167/.375/.250 with six strikeouts to three walks over his first five games in the complex-level Arizona League.
5-151: RHP Garrett Stallings (Tennessee, unranked)
Garrett Stallings doesn't have the highest upside in the world, but he's an advanced arm who really knows how to pitch. The 6'2" righty from Virginia's Hampton Roads area had his best college season this year, posting a 3.33 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 106/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings for Tennessee. He also had an exceptional, albeit brief, run through the Cape Cod League in which he posted a 2.50 ERA while striking out 21 and walking none over 18 innings, and his 3.76 in-conference ERA in the SEC was solid as well. Stallings only sits around 90 with his fastball, but he mixes in three solid offspeed pitches nicely and hitters never seem to have their balance against him. He also throws plenty of strikes, so while the margin for error for a guy like Stallings is small, he should be able to make it work. He projects as a #4 or #5 starter and signed for $312,500, which was $41,200 below slot.
6-181: RHP Zach Peek (Winthrop, unranked)
For the second straight pick, the Angels took a college starter who originally grew up in Virginia. Zach Peek, from the Lynchburg area, looks like a pitcher with a 6'3" frame, a three pitch mix, and a clean delivery. He was up and down as a junior, posting a 4.02 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 91/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 innings, though that ERA was inflated by a very rough start against Florida early in the season. Peek sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a decent curveball and a solid changeup, and he mixes all three pitches well enough to keep hitters off balance. He's skinny and can add a little more weight, so getting him on a pro conditioning program and helping him get more consistent with that curveball could make him a back-end starter. He signed for $267,800, which was $2,500 below slot.
8-241: RHP Kyle Brnovich (Elon, unranked)
Mariners' first rounder George Kirby may have been the best prospect in the Elon rotation this year, but it was Kyle Brnovich who won the 2018 Colonial Athletic Association Pitcher of the Year Award and who started on Friday nights. Brnovich's award winning sophomore season saw him post a 1.71 ERA and a 147/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings, but he took a step back this year and finished with a 3.66 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 110/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings. His fastball only sits around 90 but he adds in a devastating breaking ball, one that I've seen classified as both a slider and as a knuckle curve. Either way, he can change the shape of it and it can function as two different pitches at times, but it will continue to be a true out pitch in pro ball. However, his changeup isn't anything special and his delivery features some effort, which has caused his command to come and go. When he's holding the strike zone effectively, he looks like a future #4 starter, but when he loses it, he looks more like a reliever. Given the effort in his delivery and his one good pitch, he's probably a reliever anyways, where his fastball could sit in the low 90's and help his breaking ball be more effective, but there is still a chance he could make it as a starter with a few adjustments. The Atlanta-area native signed for $168,700, which was $2,500 below slot.
9-271: RHP Zach Linginfelter (Tennessee, unranked)
The Angels' scouting corps must have had a heavy presence at weekend games in Knoxville, because five rounds after taking Friday night starter Garrett Stallings, they grabbed Saturday starter Zach Linginfelter. Linginfelter, however, is a very different pitcher from Stallings, and he finished a rollercoaster junior year with a 5.64 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 71/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.2 innings, including a 7.87 ERA in conference. He has a power arm that fires low to mid 90's fastballs, and that power arm got him drafted not only out of high school in Sevierville, Tennessee in 2016, but again as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2018. He also adds an inconsistent slider and changeup that help him miss tons of bats when he's on but which can also flatten out, though he also struggles to tie it all together because his mechanics are inconsistent and he struggles to spot his pitches. At 6'5" and 220 pounds, he has a big league body and should be durable enough to start, but it remains to be seen whether he can ever get consistent enough, with everything, to do so. He already turned 22 in April, so he's the age of a college senior rather than a junior, and his most likely long term destination is the bullpen. He signed for $150,800, which was $2,500 below slot.
31-931: OF Spencer Jones (La Costa Canyon HS [CA], my rank: 59)
The top two-way player in the 2019 draft class by far, Spencer Jones was a good spring away from being a first round pick as either a hitter or a pitcher, but a fractured elbow ended his season early on. With a Vanderbilt commitment in hand, he was already going to be a tough sign, and the injury made it even less likely he would be coaxed away from school. He fell to the 31st round, where his hometown (-ish) Angels picked him on the off chance he would change his mind, but even if there was a glimmer of hope for a massive overslot deal at that point, Vanderbilt went ahead and won the National Championship and probably dealt the final blow to Jones' chances of starting his pro career now. The Carlsbad, California native (near San Diego) stands 6'7" and has plenty of room to add good weight, and at this point he's all projection without much track record. On the mound, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and should add more velocity down the road, and his curveball is already a very good pitch. However, he hasn't proven much beyond that fastball/curveball combination and he's very much a wild card when it comes to pitching. There is no less certainty for him at the plate, where he shows above average power from a whippy swing with loft. There are swing and miss questions there, mostly stemming from his lack of a track record, so you have to dream in order to project him down the road as a hitter. He'll get it figured out at Vanderbilt, where hopes to turn into the next Brendan McKay, though that seems just a bit rich.
31-931: OF Spencer Jones (La Costa Canyon HS [CA], my rank: 59)
The top two-way player in the 2019 draft class by far, Spencer Jones was a good spring away from being a first round pick as either a hitter or a pitcher, but a fractured elbow ended his season early on. With a Vanderbilt commitment in hand, he was already going to be a tough sign, and the injury made it even less likely he would be coaxed away from school. He fell to the 31st round, where his hometown (-ish) Angels picked him on the off chance he would change his mind, but even if there was a glimmer of hope for a massive overslot deal at that point, Vanderbilt went ahead and won the National Championship and probably dealt the final blow to Jones' chances of starting his pro career now. The Carlsbad, California native (near San Diego) stands 6'7" and has plenty of room to add good weight, and at this point he's all projection without much track record. On the mound, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and should add more velocity down the road, and his curveball is already a very good pitch. However, he hasn't proven much beyond that fastball/curveball combination and he's very much a wild card when it comes to pitching. There is no less certainty for him at the plate, where he shows above average power from a whippy swing with loft. There are swing and miss questions there, mostly stemming from his lack of a track record, so you have to dream in order to project him down the road as a hitter. He'll get it figured out at Vanderbilt, where hopes to turn into the next Brendan McKay, though that seems just a bit rich.
Thursday, May 16, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Second Basemen
It's hard to say exactly who ends up at second base down the road, as most second basemen begin their pro careers as shortstop (as will many of the players listed below), so this list is more of an educated guess as to who will end up at second base long term. There are no standouts here, with many projecting to be solid utility infielders, though there are some very good bats to be found at both the college and high school levels.
Tier I: Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake
There are two second basemen with serious first round aspirations, though both currently play shortstop. In my opinion, North Carolina State's Will Wilson is the superior prospect, having hit well all three years in Raleigh, improving each time. This year has been his best, as he slashed .346/.429/.681 with 15 home runs and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio through 47 games as of this writing, showcasing both power and the ability to make consistent hard contact against quality ACC pitching. He's a smaller guy at 5'11" and 175 pounds, but he generates a ton of torque in his right handed swing and should continue to hit for power at the next level. While he doesn't have the most advanced feel for the strike zone in the ACC, he has a strong enough plate discipline that it shouldn't be an issue in pro ball. Defensively, he has a shot to stick at short with his athleticism and strong arm, but his most likely landing spot will be second base, where he should be an above average defender. Meanwhile, Braden Shewmake over at Texas A&M remains a first round prospect, though he was better in 2018 (5 HR, .325/.395/.450, 21/21 K/BB) than in 2019 (5 HR, .307/.360/.462, 23/17 K/BB). Shewmake is a much bigger guy than Wilson at 6'4", but he's skinny and scouts are unsure if he will ever grow into that frame. However, if he does, the additional power he could generate would give him very high upside given his already strong bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel. While Wilson is likely destined for second base, Shewmake could end up at any infield position to the left of first base due to his stronger arm and bigger size. However, if the power never comes, Shewmake will be more of a table-setter than a true impact hitter. Both Wilson and Shewmake project to go somewhere in the back half of the first round, though Shewmake could fall into the comp round.
Tier II: Chase Strumpf, Brooks Lee, Matthew Lugo
These three potential future second basemen couldn't be more different, but all of their skill sets add up to roughly the same tier. Chase Strumpf, as the only college player in this tier, holds the least risk, though like Shewmake he was better as a sophomore last year (12 HR, .363/.475/.633, 53/45 K/BB) than as a junior this year (7 HR, .309/.453/.503, 43/41 K/BB). He is also unique on this list because he is the only player who actually plays second base right now, manning the keystone for the best college team in the country, the UCLA Bruins. As a mediocre to decent defender, Strumpf's value is mostly tied to his bat, as he combines high walk rates with good present power to be a force in the middle of the Bruins lineup. His bat projects to be productive in the major leagues with the potential to reach true impact level, though there is enough swing and miss in his game (to go along with his reduced numbers this year) to put some risk there. Because he's nothing special defensively, he'll need to hit to hold value, and he projects as a second rounder. Meanwhile, Brooks Lee has one of the more interesting profiles of this year's high school crop. As the son of Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee, it comes as no surprise that Brooks has tremendous feel for the game and that he maximizes his skill set at every turn. A switch hitter, neither his left handed nor right handed swings are all that smooth, but he has such good hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel that he can make consistent hard contact against even the best high school pitching. He is also a competent defender that could stick at short but who may have to move to second or third base down the line, but it's really the hit tool and the high baseball IQ you are buying here. He'll need some mechanical adjustments in pro ball and has a second round profile, but teams like his feel for the game enough that he could sneak into the comp round. Matthew Lugo, the top Puerto Rican prospect this year, is much more raw than Lee but has plenty of upside. He is athletic and projectable, with his whippy swing providing some power projection down the road. His future position is up in the air, but he should provide positive defensive value either as a workable shortstop or as a solid second or third baseman. All together, he has a high ceiling as a very productive regular and a low floor, so he could go anywhere in the second or third rounds.
Tier III: Cameron Cannon, Josh Smith, Christian Cairo
By tier three, you're definitely looking at guys who are more likely to end up as utility infielders than true starters. Still, there are a couple of good options to choose from, each of whom comes with relatively lower risk. Arizona's Cameron Cannon has been very strong with the bat, slashing .391/.473/.633 with seven home runs and a 28/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games for the Wildcats, showing very few holes in his game. He has great feel for the barrel and a solid approach at the plate, giving him a high chance to hit well in pro ball, and he packs some power into his 5'10" frame due to his whippy swing that could produce even more in pro ball. He's nothing special defensively, but he's a gamer who can handle pretty much any position and he has a classic utility infield profile. Louisiana State's Josh Smith, meanwhile, has been as steady as they come, slashing .345/.440/.518 with seven home runs and a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games for the Tigers in a breakout junior season. He also shows some power and the ability to play multiple positions, showing a little more arm strength but a little less power projection than Cannon. He also strikes out just a little more than you would like for a player with his profile, so he and Cannon both look like third rounders at this point with the chance to sneak into the second. Meanwhile, Christian Cairo has a similar profile to both, though he's still in high school in the Tampa area. The son of MLB veteran Miguel Cairo, Christian brings the expected feel for the game and in that sense isn't too dissimilar to Brooks Lee. However, Lee shows more power projection, with Cairo looking more like a consistent line drive bat who shows a good feel for the zone and who makes all of the routine plays in the infield. He has a clean swing and should have little trouble transitioning to pro ball with the ultimate projection of being a utility infielder with the chance for more.
Others: Brady McConnell, Gabe Holt, Michael Massey
Tier I: Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake
There are two second basemen with serious first round aspirations, though both currently play shortstop. In my opinion, North Carolina State's Will Wilson is the superior prospect, having hit well all three years in Raleigh, improving each time. This year has been his best, as he slashed .346/.429/.681 with 15 home runs and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio through 47 games as of this writing, showcasing both power and the ability to make consistent hard contact against quality ACC pitching. He's a smaller guy at 5'11" and 175 pounds, but he generates a ton of torque in his right handed swing and should continue to hit for power at the next level. While he doesn't have the most advanced feel for the strike zone in the ACC, he has a strong enough plate discipline that it shouldn't be an issue in pro ball. Defensively, he has a shot to stick at short with his athleticism and strong arm, but his most likely landing spot will be second base, where he should be an above average defender. Meanwhile, Braden Shewmake over at Texas A&M remains a first round prospect, though he was better in 2018 (5 HR, .325/.395/.450, 21/21 K/BB) than in 2019 (5 HR, .307/.360/.462, 23/17 K/BB). Shewmake is a much bigger guy than Wilson at 6'4", but he's skinny and scouts are unsure if he will ever grow into that frame. However, if he does, the additional power he could generate would give him very high upside given his already strong bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel. While Wilson is likely destined for second base, Shewmake could end up at any infield position to the left of first base due to his stronger arm and bigger size. However, if the power never comes, Shewmake will be more of a table-setter than a true impact hitter. Both Wilson and Shewmake project to go somewhere in the back half of the first round, though Shewmake could fall into the comp round.
Tier II: Chase Strumpf, Brooks Lee, Matthew Lugo
These three potential future second basemen couldn't be more different, but all of their skill sets add up to roughly the same tier. Chase Strumpf, as the only college player in this tier, holds the least risk, though like Shewmake he was better as a sophomore last year (12 HR, .363/.475/.633, 53/45 K/BB) than as a junior this year (7 HR, .309/.453/.503, 43/41 K/BB). He is also unique on this list because he is the only player who actually plays second base right now, manning the keystone for the best college team in the country, the UCLA Bruins. As a mediocre to decent defender, Strumpf's value is mostly tied to his bat, as he combines high walk rates with good present power to be a force in the middle of the Bruins lineup. His bat projects to be productive in the major leagues with the potential to reach true impact level, though there is enough swing and miss in his game (to go along with his reduced numbers this year) to put some risk there. Because he's nothing special defensively, he'll need to hit to hold value, and he projects as a second rounder. Meanwhile, Brooks Lee has one of the more interesting profiles of this year's high school crop. As the son of Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee, it comes as no surprise that Brooks has tremendous feel for the game and that he maximizes his skill set at every turn. A switch hitter, neither his left handed nor right handed swings are all that smooth, but he has such good hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel that he can make consistent hard contact against even the best high school pitching. He is also a competent defender that could stick at short but who may have to move to second or third base down the line, but it's really the hit tool and the high baseball IQ you are buying here. He'll need some mechanical adjustments in pro ball and has a second round profile, but teams like his feel for the game enough that he could sneak into the comp round. Matthew Lugo, the top Puerto Rican prospect this year, is much more raw than Lee but has plenty of upside. He is athletic and projectable, with his whippy swing providing some power projection down the road. His future position is up in the air, but he should provide positive defensive value either as a workable shortstop or as a solid second or third baseman. All together, he has a high ceiling as a very productive regular and a low floor, so he could go anywhere in the second or third rounds.
Tier III: Cameron Cannon, Josh Smith, Christian Cairo
By tier three, you're definitely looking at guys who are more likely to end up as utility infielders than true starters. Still, there are a couple of good options to choose from, each of whom comes with relatively lower risk. Arizona's Cameron Cannon has been very strong with the bat, slashing .391/.473/.633 with seven home runs and a 28/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games for the Wildcats, showing very few holes in his game. He has great feel for the barrel and a solid approach at the plate, giving him a high chance to hit well in pro ball, and he packs some power into his 5'10" frame due to his whippy swing that could produce even more in pro ball. He's nothing special defensively, but he's a gamer who can handle pretty much any position and he has a classic utility infield profile. Louisiana State's Josh Smith, meanwhile, has been as steady as they come, slashing .345/.440/.518 with seven home runs and a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games for the Tigers in a breakout junior season. He also shows some power and the ability to play multiple positions, showing a little more arm strength but a little less power projection than Cannon. He also strikes out just a little more than you would like for a player with his profile, so he and Cannon both look like third rounders at this point with the chance to sneak into the second. Meanwhile, Christian Cairo has a similar profile to both, though he's still in high school in the Tampa area. The son of MLB veteran Miguel Cairo, Christian brings the expected feel for the game and in that sense isn't too dissimilar to Brooks Lee. However, Lee shows more power projection, with Cairo looking more like a consistent line drive bat who shows a good feel for the zone and who makes all of the routine plays in the infield. He has a clean swing and should have little trouble transitioning to pro ball with the ultimate projection of being a utility infielder with the chance for more.
Others: Brady McConnell, Gabe Holt, Michael Massey
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