Showing posts with label Alejandro Rosario. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alejandro Rosario. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Texas Rangers

Full list of draftees

The Rangers knew what they wanted and they went and got it. First off, they started with arguably the top player in the entire class in Wyatt Langford, who according to some evaluators is on par with or even a tick ahead of Dylan Crews as a prospect. After that, Texas leaned heavily into the pitching ranks, especially on hard throwers. Numerous draftees are touching triple digits or getting close to them, though many also come with significant reliever risk. Beyond Langford, it's really a boom or bust class, but it makes for a lot of interesting profiles in the meantime. The Rangers did manage all this despite not having a second or third round pick due to signing Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-4: OF Wyatt Langford, Florida {video}
Slot value: $7.7 million. Signing bonus: $8 million ($302,000 above slot value).
My rank: #2. MLB Pipeline: #3. Baseball America: #3. Prospects Live: #3.
It's not often that the #4 overall pick signs above slot value, but Wyatt Langford is worth every penny and more. More or less the consensus #3 prospect in the class, I had him #2 on my board just a hair behind #1 Dylan Crews. Langford is a major success story. Hailing from the small town of Trenton, Florida (population 2015, but enough to also produce country music singer Easton Corbin), he stayed home to attend the nearby University of Florida and rode the bench as a freshman, picking up just four at bats. However, he broke into the lineup in a big way with a massive sophomore campaign (.355/.447/.719, 26 HR), enough to push himself into top five discussions heading into the season. Langford only got better in 2023, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 home runs and a 44/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games to put himself on near equal footing with the more famous Dylan Crews. There are no holes in this profile no matter how hard you look unless you want to ding him for being a right handed hitting outfielder (like Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuña, and of course Crews). He's packed full of lean muscle at 6'1", with long arms that help channel that strength into at least plus raw power, if not plus-plus, that he taps consistently in games, leading to 47 home runs in 130 games over the past two seasons. It's a clean, leveraged, explosive right handed swing that's about as pretty as they come. He gets the barrel long through the zone, extends with ease, and puts natural loft on the ball all while maintaining big time bat speed to make the ball disappear. At the same time, Langford is an extremely disciplined hitter that rarely chases and makes a ton of contact, profiling as a plus pure hitter even if you take the power away. It's the kind of profile that can produce 30+ home runs annually while getting on base at a .400 clip in the majors. Previously thought to be a stretch in center field, his athleticism shined through in 2023 as he showed off plus run times that could help him stick in center field long term. He might slide back over to an outfield corner if he slows down at all with age, but the bat is truly special and he'll still be above average in either corner with a strong arm. Overall, it's an MVP-caliber ceiling with the floor of a very solid regular who sticks in the big leagues for a long time. It's hard not to love this pick at fourth overall because Langford very well could come out of this draft as the best player in the class. So far, he's off to the most impressive start of anybody in this class not named Nolan Schanuel (though I'm still buying Langford way ahead of Schanuel), slashing .359/.471/.697 with ten home runs and a 28/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games, becoming the only player in the draft class not named Schanuel to reach AAA.

4-108: RHP Skylar Hales, Santa Clara {video}
Slot value: $621,700. Signing bonus: $565,000 ($56,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #179. Prospects Live: #223.
Over one hundred picks later, the Rangers finally got to pick again and brought in a flame throwing reliever from the West Coast. Skylar Hales jumped back into the Santa Clara bullpen this year after spending 2022 as a starter, and in 2023 he posted a 3.38 ERA and a 66/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.1 innings. Hales consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch triple digits, with running life that makes it really tough to square up. He mostly lives and dies with that fastball, but he does flash a nice slider with sweeping action that could become a weapon with a little more refinement. Adding a cutter to split the difference between his running fastball and sweeping slider could help create more deception, but his delivery already provides some. Hale hides the ball well and releases from a lower slot, providing that combination of power and funk that teams like to find in their relievers. He pounds the strike zone with average command, which you don't always see from pure relief prospects. The Rangers love the fastball and will get to work on developing his secondaries, which could make him a solid reliever at the major league level. He showed well in his pro debut, posting a 4.22 ERA and an 11/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Down East.

5-144: RHP Alejandro Rosario, Miami {video}
Slot value: $437,900. Signing bonus: $437,900.
My rank: #102. MLB Pipeline: #212. Baseball America: #228. Prospects Live: #153.
Alejandro Rosario was a potential top one hundred pick out of high school in 2020, but he was raw and his asking price plus the shortened draft pushed him to college at Miami. The results haven't really been there in Coral Gables, so if you care about college pitchers' ERA, look away. After posting a 5.21 ERA as a freshman and a 7.05 ERA as a sophomore, he put up a career worst 7.11 ERA in 2023 to go along with a 91/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.2 innings. Obviously, you're not buying the performance here, but rather the stuff. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and tops out at 99, and Rosario maintains his velocity through his starts. His slider flashes plus with downer action, while his changeup has steadily developed and looks like a solid weapon in its own right. It's a pretty nasty three pitch mix, and he shouldn't get hit as hard as he does. Part of the issue may be a lack of deception, as Rosario opens early and gives hitters a long look at the ball out of his hand. He also shows fringy command and leaves a lot of balls over the plate. The Rangers are going to get creative with his development, certainly looking to mix up his pitch usage and make him a little less predictable from a hitter's perspective. There's a ton of upside here and more and more, teams are realizing that past performance, especially from pitchers, is not a strong predictor of future performance.

6-171: RHP Caden Scarborough, Harmony HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $339,400. Signing bonus: $515,000 ($175,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Caden Scarborough is way off the beaten path, having gone unranked on every major public draft board. That's never scared the Rangers before, and they popped him away from a Dallas Baptist commitment for late fourth round money. This is a total projection play. Scarborough currently sits around 90 with his fastball, usually topping around 91-92 in games with flat plane from a lower slot. His curveball looks promising with nice depth but needs to add significant power to miss bats in pro ball. Like I said though, the projection here is the draw. I've seen him variously listed anywhere from 6'5" to 6'7", and he's rail thin with room to add thirty or forty pounds to his towering frame. There's no sure things when it comes to pitching, but it's pretty much a lock that Scarborough will add significant velocity to both his fastball and his curveball. He's also a great athlete and a decorated basketball player, which should help him stay coordinated on the mound despite those long levers. The Rangers will need to be very patient, first stuffing him full of steaks and protein shakes to add weight while helping him round out his arsenal in order to remain a starter. This is a big time sleeper pick but the Rangers have hit on these before.

7-201: RHP Izack Tiger, Butler JC [KS] {video}
Slot value: $265,500. Signing bonus: $180,000 ($85,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #393.
I'm sorry, but is Izack Tiger not the coolest name in the draft? If not #1, it's certainly up there with Maui Ahuna and Carson Roccaforte. Regardless, he's got the stuff to match. A native of the eastern OKC suburb of Del City, Oklahoma, he has spent three seasons at Butler Community College in southern Kansas and finished off a solid 2023 where he posted a 3.93 ERA and a 121/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.2 innings. The fastball sits comfortably in the mid 90's and has been up to triple digits at times, coming in from a high slot with riding action. His hard cutter/slider comes in with upper 80's velocity and tight break, and he adds a solid changeup to boot. Everything is firm and he may need to incorporate something softer to change speeds more effectively, but you can't teach his kind of arm strength. Tiger attacks the strike zone but shows fringy command, often getting hit hard over the plate including on the Cape shortly before the draft, where his sharp 15/5 strikeout to walk ratio contrasted a bit with his .389 opponents' batting average. Already 22 and a half, he probably profiles better as a reliever in pro ball where he can simply seek to overpower hitters with his high octane stuff, and the Rangers could move him quickly in that role. In a brief Arizona Complex League stint, he allowed three runs (one earned) over four innings while striking out four and walking two.

8-231: C Julian Brock, Louisiana-Lafayette {video}
Slot value: $210,600. Signing bonus: $255,000 ($44,400 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #122. Baseball America: #371. Prospects Live: #275.
We get our first Texan here in the eighth round. Julian Brock is a product Fulshear, Houston's equivalent to Celina or Melissa in that it was a small town until very recently when it began to explode with brand new master planned communities. He headed east for college and spent four years at Louisiana-Lafayette, where he barely played as an underclassman before establishing himself as the starting catcher as a junior in 2022. He had his best year yet in 2023, slashing .315/.435/.559 with eleven home runs and a 53/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Standing 6'3", he comes with the power you'd expect from his big, strong frame, with the ability to produce some real moonshots to the pull side. He has become much more patient as he's progressed, helping him find good pitches to launch and driving up his on-base percentage. There are some questions about his ability to handle higher quality stuff, with some swing and miss present in the zone due to his power-conscious approach, but the offensive bar is lower for catchers and he's got the power/patience combination to hold his own in the lineup even if he hits for a low average. Brock is also a strong defender with natural feel for catching, showing off an above average arm that plays up due to his short arm stroke and ability to quickly pop out of the crouch. All of that points to a solid backup catcher profile, with the chance for more if he can make enough contact to tap his power regularly in games.

10-291: RHP Case Matter, Washington {video}
Slot value: $170,100. Signing bonus: $155,000 ($15,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #362. Prospects Live: #206.
Case Matter gives the Rangers yet another hard thrower. After serving as a swingman in 2022, Washington pushed him back to the bullpen in 2023 where he posted a 3.91 ERA and a 34/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings, which is nothing special but as with most of their picks this year, the Rangers are buying the stuff. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 97 with riding life from a lower release point, making it extremely difficult to square up. Matter can really rip through a breaking ball, too, but mostly pitches off his fastball and he hasn't always been consistent with his curveball and slider. To this point, everything has played down because he has below average command stemming from a high effort delivery with significant head whack in which he falls hard off to the glove side in his follow through. That will keep him in the bullpen long term, but with that high octane right arm, the Rangers think they can put him together just enough to be effective. If he can more effectively incorporate his offspeed stuff into his arsenal and show even fringy command, he'll be a big league reliever. In his brief Arizona Complex League stint, he allowed one run over three innings while striking out four and walking none.

11-321: OF Maxton Martin, Southridge HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($100,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Rangers used the rest of their available funds to go a bit over slot and sign Maxton Martin away from an Oregon commitment. The younger brother of Pirates prospect Mason Martin, who has hit well over one hundred minor league home runs and is currently in AAA, Maxton put his own name on the map with a strong spring. He packs a ton of strength into his 6'1" frame, showing off explosive bat speed that translates to plus raw power already. However, he has struggled to tap it against higher quality pitching, where his noisy load with a hitch makes it tough for him to get on plane with the baseball. He looked better this spring, but the transition to pro ball may not be smooth immediately. He's a decent runner that should lock down a corner outfield spot, and the Rangers hope more exposure and cleaned up mechanics will help him tap his prodigious power in games. There's some nice upside here even if he's a ways away. In ten games in the Arizona Complex League, he slashed .243/.378/.378 with one home run and an 11/8 strikeout to walk ratio.

12-351: RHP Paul Bonzagni, Southern Illinois {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Paul Bonzagni gives the Rangers another pitching prospect from North Texas. He grew up in the Grapevine, which sits between Dallas and Fort Worth and attended high school at local powerhouse Southlake Carroll. Originally committed to St. Edward's University in Austin, he switched gears and instead headed to Weatherford JC west of Fort Worth, then transferred out to Southern Illinois University this year. The numbers were decent at SIU, where he posted a 4.94 ERA and a 50/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings, but he pushed his name up draft boards with a strong turn in the Cape Cod League right before the draft in which he posted a 3.24 ERA and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.1 innings. Bonzagni sits in the mid 90's and tops out around 97 in short stints with running action, giving him very similar velocity to many other pitchers in this Rangers class. His short, sweeping slider looks like an above average pitch at this point and he can effectively turn over a changeup as well, giving him a really nice three pitch mix. Bonzagni pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen for SIU and never went more than two innings on the Cape, so it will be interesting to see what the Rangers do here. The 6'3" righty has a pretty easy delivery and shows close to average command, so they could run him out as a starter to see what happens. If not, he'll be a tough matchup as a reliever with that well-rounded arsenal and a semblance of command, potentially fitting into a long relief role. He looked sharp in his pro debut, posting a 2.38 ERA and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Down East.

13-381: RHP William Privette, College of Charleston {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #178. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #252. Prospects Live: #164.
It may be the thirteenth round, but I find William Privette to be a very interesting arm. He was untouchable as a sophomore at College of Charleston in 2022 (0.91 ERA, 80/15 K/BB) and continued to throw well in 2023, when he posted a 2.36 ERA and a 64/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 innings. The velocity isn't overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and topping out around 96 while throwing in short stints, but it's extremely deceptive. Privette leans back as he breaks towards the plate, hiding the ball well despite longer arm action and coming from an extreme over the top release point. The fastball itself has huge riding action, making it a true invisiball. For now, he pitches almost exclusively off that fastball, also working in a solid changeup and a decent curveball. The 6'6" righty pounds the strike zone with average command, though it did take a slight step back in 2023. Going forward, he'll need to take a step forward with at least one of his offspeed offerings, but between his deceptive fastball, command, and size, the Rangers have a lot to get creative with and I think he'll work his way into the Texas bullpen sooner rather than later. He did get blown up a bit in a brief Arizona Complex League debut, allowing seven runs (five earned) over two innings, striking out two but walking eight.

Saturday, July 25, 2020

2020 Draft: Top 12 Undrafted High School Pitchers

Personally, I love watching Friday night duels in college baseball, and the shortened 2020 draft means we'll have more pitching talent heading to school than ever before. Carson Montgomery headlines the incoming freshman class as a fringe-first rounder who wanted to head to Florida State, while Miami managed to bring on not one but two of the top four, at least by my pre-draft rankings. Other big programs like Vanderbilt, LSU, and Texas jumped on there, while San Diego State lost Ricky Tiedemann when he decided to switch it up to Long Beach Community College, where he'll be draft-eligible again in 2021. Personally, my two "sleeper" picks from this list are Ryan Hagenow and and Nick Griffin, the latter of which reminds me of Asa Lacy as a high schooler.

1. RHP Carson Montgomery (my draft rank: 39)
Windermere HS [FL] -> Florida State
The top player on my rankings to go undrafted, Carson Montgomery is set to jump into a Florida State rotation that lost CJ Van Eyk (Blue Jays, second round) and Shane Drohan (Red Sox, fifth round) as well as Antonio Velez (Marlins, undrafted) out of the bullpen. Van Eyk and Drohan were big draft names in their own right out of high school in 2017, ranking 107th and 118th on my draft list that year, so bringing on blue chip recruits is nothing new for FSU. Montgomery is a 6'2" right hander with plenty of room to grow into his frame, and his extremely loose right arm makes him even more projectable. For now, he has a low 90's fastball that he can run up to 96, and he's working on maintaining that velocity a little better. His best secondary pitch is an inconsistent slider that can flash plus at its best, and he throws a sneaky good changeup that he doesn't use as often. His command is fairly inconsistent as well, but he's very young for an incoming freshman and won't even turn 18 until August. Montgomery might need a little bit of refinement throughout his freshman year but I imagine that by the time he's a sophomore, he'll be a true ace for the Seminoles. Pre-draft profile here.

2. RHP Ryan Hagenow (my draft rank: 52)
Farragut HS [TN] -> Kentucky
I took a bit of a gamble on Ryan Hagenow, who ranked 52nd on my list but 68th on MLB Pipeline and 194th on Baseball America. I really like his upside though, and I have a feeling he's going to spend his three years in Lexington and turn into a monster. He's an uber-projectable 6'5" righty out of the Knoxville area who has a lot to work on, but I think he has a lot going for him as well. His fastball velocity isn't quite there yet, sitting around 90 for the most part and topping out around 93, but his loose arm puts nice movement on the pitch and portends to future velocity gains. His slider is average for now, flattening out at times but also showing some nice depth down in the zone when he gets it right. Adding some power and consistency in college could make it a plus pitch. To me, his best pitch right now is his changeup, with great fading action to the arm side. He does a decent job of throwing strikes, but he needs to smoothen out his delivery a little bit, which I believe he will. I love the way his arms and legs work in his delivery and he could easily add 20-30 pounds at school, which should help him add power to his fastball and slider. In a best case scenario, I could really see him coming out for the 2023 draft with three plus pitches and a starter's frame, which would easily put him in the first round. There's a long way to go, and I don't think he'll slot directly into Kentucky's weekend rotation right away, but he is relatively young for the class with a June birthday and I have a good feeling about him. Pre-draft profile here.

3. RHP Victor Mederos (my draft rank: 57)
Westminster Christian HS [FL] -> Miami
Miami did a fantastic job of holding its talented recruiting class together, and it's a good thing because they lost their entire weekend rotation in Slade Cecconi (Diamondbacks, comp round), Chris McMahon (Rockies, second round), and Brian Van Belle (Red Sox, undrafted), plus reliever Tyler Keysor (Reds, undrafted). Headlining the incoming recruits, at least as far as my list goes, is Victor Mederos, a Cuban-born pitcher who fled the country with his mother and brother when he was six years old and settled in Miami. The big 6'4" righty has as strong an arm as anyone in this class, sitting in the low to mid 90's with a fastball he can run up to 96. He has two breaking balls in a curveball and a slider that can flash plus, with the former showing great depth and power at times and the latter coming in with harder velocity. There is a solid changeup as well, and Mederos aggressively attacks hitters with all four, though the two breaking balls can blend into each other at times. That aggressiveness can hurt him more than it helps him at times, with a tendency to overthrow and lose his arm slot and therefore strike zone. He does have the innate strike throwing ability to be successful in that area, and all he really needs to do is stay within himself more. Miami is getting a really exciting, high-octane arm who could develop into an impact starter, though with a June birthday that makes him old for the class, he'll be eligible again for the 2022 draft as a sophomore. Pre-draft profile here.

4. RHP Alejandro Rosario (my draft rank: 67)
Miami Christian HS [FL] -> Miami
Joining Mederos in that future Hurricanes rotation will be fellow Miami native Alejandro Rosario, though he's a very different pitcher. While Mederos is listed at 6'4" and 215 pounds, Rosario is a very slim 6'1" and 165 pounds. He lives off his fastball, which sits in the mid 90's, has registered as high as 99, and gets good running action to the arm side. His secondary pitches are more of a work in progress, with a slider and a splitter that he's still working to differentiate. Believe it or not, the splitter is actually ahead of the slider, an above average pitch at its best, and he needs to refine his slider to look less like his splitter, not the other way around. Because of his slight frame and unrefined arsenal, he faces significant reliever questions in pro ball, though I think he'll definitely be able to start at least in college. Maybe not right off the bat, as I think Mederos has a better shot to crack the rotation as a freshman than Rosario does, but he's athletic, repeats his delivery well, and throws enough strikes to make it work. Throw in the easy gas and the splitter/slider thing, and he'll miss tons of bats in the ACC. During his time in Miami, if he can refine those secondary pitches and perhaps bulk up a little bit, his electric right arm could be really enticing for teams early in the 2023 draft. Pre-draft profile here.

5. RHP/SS/QB Cade Horton (my draft rank: 70)
Norman HS [OK] -> Oklahoma
A quarterback/baseball player heading to Oklahoma? Cade Horton is harkening back to Kyler Murray with that combination, but he's not quite the prospect Murray was in either sport. Horton won't have to go far for school, staying in his hometown of Norman, just south of Oklahoma City. Not only his he a two-sport star, but he's actually set to play both ways on the diamond as well. Most scouts prefer him as a pitcher, and I'd have to agree with that. Horton is a 6'2" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding an above average slider that could end up a plus pitch if he adds some power to it. As with most high school pitchers, his changeup requires some imagination, but it's there. As you might expect from a quarterback, he's a good athlete with a durable frame that should lend itself well to starting. There is a lot of baseline ability there to project on, and once (if) he gives up hitting and quarterbacking, he could take some big steps forward. Oklahoma lost its entire weekend rotation in Cade Cavalli (Nationals, first round), Levi Prater (Cardinals, third round), and Dane Acker (A's, fourth round), plus reliever Zack Matthews (Astros, undrafted), so Horton should have every chance to jump into the rotation from day one. Pre-draft profile here.

6. LHP Ricky Tiedemann (my draft rank: 75)
Lakewood HS [CA] -> San Diego State Long Beach CC
Ricky Tiedemann was previously committed to pitch at San Diego State, but after effectively pricing himself out of the draft, he'll head to Long Beach Community College to be eligible right away for the 2021 draft. Personally, I think this could pay off big time for the Los Angeles-area native. Tiedemann has an extremely projectable, extremely athletic 6'4" frame that screams future projection. He has a really loose right arm and an easy, natural operation as well, giving his coaches at LBCC a lot to work with. For now, the fastball sits around 90, but I could easily see him adding significant velocity in the future, perhaps even in his freshman year at LBCC. His changeup is his best pitch for now with great fading action, giving him a reliable offspeed. He has a slider, but it's below average at this point and will need significant refinement. It's really easy to envision Tiedemann getting a lot, a lot better, so even marginal improvement in 2021 could seriously help his draft stock. If he adds a tick or two to his fastball or refines that slider to an average or above average pitch, that should move him into top 50 consideration, and doing both could make him a first rounder. Another plus in Tiedemann's profile is his age, because like Carson Montgomery, he won't turn 18 until August, making him the age of a slightly old high school senior by the time the 2021 draft rolls around. Pre-draft profile here.

7. RHP Tanner Witt (my draft rank: 87)
Episcopal HS [TX] -> Texas
The University of Texas had a recruiting class filled with big draft names, but ultimately saw Carson Tucker (Indians, first round), Jared Jones (Pirates, second round), Jared Kelley (White Sox, second round), and Petey Halpin (Indians, third round) go in the top 100 picks. In losing four huge recruits to the draft, Longhorns fans can take solace in that they got one really good pitcher to price himself out. Like Tiedemann, he's about projectability more than anything else, but there is a lot of present ability too. Witt is a towering 6'6" righty out of Houston with a fastball that sits around 90 for the most part, but this spring he added a tick of velocity and sat in the low 90's, reaching back for as much as 95. While that increased velocity was only present for a short time before the shutdown, it was expected anyways and he has a chance to really tack it on in Austin. His curve has some nice depth to it and is an average to above average pitch at present, but again, it's easy to see him adding power as he fills out, which would make it a plus pitch. He also throws a slider and a changeup, which are fairly raw for now but which show promise and could develop into above average pitches in time. He throws strikes and repeats his delivery well, giving him plenty of starter traits to work on. Witt is very much the kind of pitcher that can show up on campus a lanky freshman and come out a bona fide ace, and he could make my #87 ranking look silly three years from now. Additionally, he's young for the class with a July birthday and will also be hitting at UT, where he could surprise some of us with his raw power. Between Witt and rising sophomore Trey Faltine, the Longhorns have two legitimate two-way prospects, though Faltine did not pitch as a freshman. Pre-draft profile here.

8. RHP Ty Floyd (my draft rank: 98)
Rockmart HS [GA] -> Louisiana State
Only the second player on this list, following Ryan Hagenow (Tennessee -> Kentucky), to leave his home state for college, Ty Floyd takes some imagination to project on. Growing up just past the Atlanta suburbs, Floyd is a 6'2" righty with a really loose arm that can run his fastball up to 95. He sits more in the low 90's during his starts, but he does have a tendency to dip a bit later on. He throws a curveball and a changeup that are both pretty raw, though the curve shows promise with nice shape down in the zone. Really, scouts are projecting on the looseness of Floyd's operation and his innate athleticism more than his present ability, and the LSU coaching staff will have some work to do when he arrives on campus. They're returning most of their pitching staff after only losing Cole Henry (Nationals, second round) to the draft, so Floyd is more likely to be a bullpen arm as a freshman, but once guys like Jaden Hill, Landon Marceaux, and AJ Labas presumably get drafted next year, Floyd has a shot to jump into the rotation as a sophomore. By the time he's a junior, if he refines his game into what scouts believe he's capable of, we could have a really exciting arm. There is probably more relief risk than most of the other names on this list, though, and Floyd has a pretty wide range of potential outcomes. Pre-draft profile here.

9. RHP Cam Brown (my draft rank: 111)
Flower Mound HS [TX] -> Texas Christian
Cam Brown had a great summer that put him firmly in top 50 conversations, and a strong spring could have further moved him up boards into first round consideration. However, his spring moved him in the opposite direction, and he'll make the short drive down I-35W to TCU to try to rebuild his stock. At his best over the summer, Brown showed a low to mid 90's fastball that played up due to some crossfire in his delivery, in addition to an above average slider and a solid changeup. However, this spring, the velocity ticked down closer to 90 and his slider looked like a below average to average pitch, and overall he just didn't look like a natural pitcher. At TCU, he has a chance to prove that his brief spring was just a minor blip, and a strong freshman season in 2021 could be enough to completely erase the bad taste in scouts' mouthes. As a 6'3" righty with a durable frame and three potential above average pitches, he has plenty of starter traits and could emerge a first round pick in 2023. At the same time, he still does have to go out and prove it. Scouts will be watching his Horned Frogs career closely to see his progression, as will I with TCU just down the road in Fort Worth.

10. LHP Mason Miller (my draft rank: 113)
Mitchell HS [FL] -> Florida Gulf Coast
Aside from the community college-bound Ricky Tiedemann, all of the previous names in this class are committed to premium baseball programs like Miami, Florida State, and Louisiana State, but Mason Miller is headed to a smaller program in Florida Gulf Coast. There, he'll hope to follow in the footsteps of fellow lefty Chris Sale, the school's biggest name ever. Miller teamed with Reds competitive balance pick Jackson Miller (no relation) at Mitchell High School just north of Tampa, and while he had a shot to go in the fourth or fifth round based on a really nice projection profile. As a 6'3" lefty, his name was already circled on scouts' lists, and a velocity bump this spring that pushed his fastball to around 90 miles per hour really put him on the map. Aside from being a scout's dream as a 6'3" lefty, his best attribute is a potentially plus curveball that gets really high spin rates and can really bring tremendous bite. It's inconsistent for now as he learns to harness its power, but the potential is there. Lastly, his changeup needs projection and could develop in any number of directions. Miller comes from a low three quarters arm slot that puts some nice angle on the ball, but he can yank the ball sometimes and it also makes it tougher for him to stay on top of his big curveball. At FGCU, he'll need to focus on adding more velocity, which should come naturally given his frame, as well as getting more consistent with those secondary pitches. He has a chance to crack the Eagles' rotation right out of the gate, and his game could grow pretty steadily during his time in Fort Myers.

11. LHP Nick Griffin (my draft rank: 119)
Monticello HS [AR] -> Arkansas
As with Texas, Arkansas' fantastic recruiting class got looted during the draft with Masyn Winn (Cardinals, second round), Markevian Hence (Cardinals, competitive balance round), and David Calabrese (Angels, third round) signing pro contracts. Nick Griffin (Monticello) will join fellow small town Arkansan Cayden Wallace (Greenbrier) as major 2020 draft prospects to head to Fayetteville, where he will look to develop into a star. Personally, he reminds me of another name as a high schooler, and Razorbacks fans will really like this one: Asa Lacy. I really, really liked Lacy coming out of high school in Texas in 2017 (and if you read my work, you're probably sick of me bragging about it), and I feel the same way about Griffin. He's a 6'4" lefty with a really loose, really athletic delivery that just screams projection. For now, his fastball sits around 90 but can bump up to 94 at times, and he figures to continuously add velocity as he fills out that frame. There is a slider as well that can be an above average pitch at times, and he adds a curveball and changeup that are pretty nascent. Everything about his game is pretty raw, but I think the Arkansas coaching staff is getting something really exciting to work with. In addition to the projectable frame, loose arm, and great body for pitching, he's relatively young for the class with a June birthday, and he's trending in the right direction. Arkansas is so loaded with talent that he probably won't crack the rotation right away, but he has a chance to follow an Asa Lacy-like rise to stardom. How's that for a prospect?

12. RHP Patrick Reilly (my draft rank: 128)
Christian Brothers HS [NJ] -> Vanderbilt
How would this list be complete without a Vanderbilt arm? In each of the past two seasons, they've landed massive recruits on the mound in Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, and while they lost their top two incoming hitters this year in Robert Hassell (Padres, first round) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (Mets, first round), they did land their top pitcher in Patrick Reilly. A New Jersey private school product like Leiter, Reilly has much less of a track record than his Garden State counterpart, instead jumping onto the map with a huge showing at the WWBA tournament over the fall. In his one start there, his previously fringy fastball sat easily in the low to mid 90's and topped out at 96, while he showed a true power curve that looked plus at its best. Reilly packs a ton of strength into his 6'4" frame that enabled his velocity gains, though aside from that exciting start in the fall, scouts hadn't seen enough of him at the increased velocity to buy him out of that Vanderbilt commitment. It will be really tough to work into that absolutely loaded rotation, especially as a freshman, but once Rocker and Leiter go in the top five picks in 2021, he'll likely have his shot. At Vanderbilt, competing for innings can be just as tough as proving yourself to evaluators, but there is no better place to go and refine his game.

Others (by pre-draft rank):
133. RHP Jason Savacool, Baker HS [NY] -> Maryland
136. LHP Timmy Manning, Cardinal Gibbons HS [FL] -> Florida
157. RHP TJ Nichols, Oakmont HS [CA] -> Arizona
160. RHP Marquis Grissom Jr., Counterpane HS [GA] -> Georgia Tech
Unranked: RHP Max Rajcic, Orange Lutheran HS [CA] -> UCLA

Thursday, May 21, 2020

2020 Draft Profile: Alejandro Rosario

RHP Alejandro Rosario, Miami Christian HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 1/6/2002.  Commitment: Miami.

There is a deep group of high school prospects in South Florida this year, and Miami Christian High School's Alejandro Rosario is among the best. He's certainly not the most polished arm in the area, but few can match his upside. Rosario, as with quite a few other reclassifying prep players like Nick Bitsko, David Calabrese, Blaze Jordan, and Owen Caissie, was originally a member of the 2021 class, but he would have been almost 19 and a half on draft day and is much more age-appropriate for the 2020 class. Because the gap between his present ability and future projection is so wide, he's certain to be a divisive prospect on draft day, but enough teams should be interested that he'll get plenty of buzz.

Rosario's prime asset is a mid 90's fastball that can scrape the upper 90's fairly consistently. Though he's on the smaller side at 6'1" and pretty skinny at that, his delivery and arm action are loose, allowing him to sit comfortably around 94-95 without overthrowing. However, the rest of his game needs considerable refinement. The fastball itself is pretty straight, something that tends to come into play against more advanced competition. As for offspeed pitches, he throws a slider and a splitter, with both looking good at times but often running into each other. The splitter is probably the better pitch, coming in with downward bite and looking like one of the better changeups in the high school class when it's at its best. He needs to work on differentiating that slider away from the splitter, with his overall feel for spinning the ball in need of significant refinement.

Rosario throws strikes and has decent enough control, but his command (ability to hit spots) does need some work as well. Between his size, lack of refined offspeed pitches, and raw command, there is significant bullpen risk here, but his velocity, the looseness in his delivery, and competitive nature do give him a lot to work with. Teams willing to put the time in to work with Rosario could benefit greatly. The Miami Hurricanes would also love to get their hands on arguably their top recruit (though Victor Mederos has a strong case as well), and in a draft class where teams are valuing safety and track record, signability could come into play if he starts to slip. If he can learn to manipulate his offspeed pitches a little better and make similar, even incremental strides with his command, he could dominate the ACC and become a first round pick in 2023.

Pitching over the summer
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