Reviewing the New York Mets Farm System

I was planning on writing up the Mets soon anyways, but after they sent Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn over to the Mariners, they have the thinnest system of the ones remaining to be written up. Without those two big names near the top of the list, the talent in this system is mostly concentrated near the bottom of the minors, especially with quite a few interesting hitters coming through Kingsport in the Appalachian League. There is not much upside in this system, with most players looking more like marginal/role players than potential stars. There are a few pitchers up at the top of the list, but most of the system is led by hitters.

Affiliates: AAA Las Vegas 51's*, AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies, High A St. Lucie Mets, Class A Columbia Fireflies, Short Season Brooklyn Cyclones, rookie level Kingsport Mets, complex level GCL and DSL Mets
*AAA affiliate will move from Las Vegas, NV to Syracuse, NY in 2019

The Headliners: 1B Peter Alonso and SS Andres Gimenez
There are no truly elite prospects in the Mets' system, though 24 year old Peter Alonso and 20 year old Andres Gimenez mark the clear two best prospects with Jarred Kelenic's trade to Seattle. Alonso had a huge year in the upper minors this year, slashing .285/.395/.579 with 36 home runs and a 128/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games about evenly split between AA Binghamton and hitter-friendly AAA Las Vegas. He has a ton of power and draws a ton of walks, with his only question on offense being his ability to make contact. He is limited to first base defensively, but his bat is good enough to profile there and he could be a 30 homer, .350 on-base percentage bat at his best. He's an early candidate for 2019 NL Rookie of the Year, though of course that is contingent on his ability to make contact at the highest level. Gimenez is a very different kind of prospect, showing more contact and defense than power. The slick fielding shortstop slashed .281/.347/.409 with six home runs, 38 stolen bases, and a 92/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton this year. He's a very advanced hitter for his age, making ready contact and using his speed to make things happen, though he's unlikely to ever develop much power and his offensive value will be largely dependent on his batting average. He could be a leadoff hitter as a best case scenario, but he'll need to start walking more in order to end up more than a bottom of the order hitter, though his defense should help him start so long as he hits like he should.

The Pitchers: LHP David Peterson, RHP Franklyn Kilome, LHP Anthony Kay, LHP Thomas Szapucki, RHP Jordan Humphreys, and RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson
There's really not much pitching depth at all in this system, especially with Justin Dunn gone to Seattle, with a small chance overall of getting a single impact pitcher out of the group of current prospects. Arguably the pitcher with the best shot of separating himself from the pack is 23 year old David Peterson, a 6'6" lefty, had a good first full season in pro ball by posting a 3.16 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 115/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 innings at Class A Columbia and High A St. Lucie. He was better at Columbia (1.82 ERA, 57/11 K/BB) than at St. Lucie (4.33 ERA, 58/19 K/BB), but his combination of stuff and command is unmatched in this system and he has a good shot at becoming a #3 or #4 starter. 23 year old Franklyn Kilome, who came over from Philadelphia in the Asdrubal Cabrera trade, is another 6'6" arm. The righty put up a 4.19 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 125/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 140 innings at AA, a moderate step back from his 2018 numbers when the Phillies (and now the Mets) were hoping for a step forward. He throws in the upper 90's but with just a good curveball and a mediocre changeup and command, Kilome is running out of time to prove he can cut it as a starter. If his command doesn't step forward in 2019, he probably ends up a good reliever rather than a #3 starter. 23 year old Anthony Kay, a Long Island native, missed 2017 to Tommy John surgery, but returned in 2018 to make a successful pro debut. In 23 starts between Columbia and St. Lucie, he posted a 4.26 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 123/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings. Kay is smaller than Peterson and Kilome, standing at 6', but he's a lefty that commands his stuff fairly well, though his slider will need to improve if he wants to start in the major leagues. Right now, the relief risk is high, though he does have a shot at being a back-end starter. 22 year olds Thomas Szapucki and Jordan Humphreys, who were born one day apart in June 1996 and who both grew up in Florida, both missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery. Both had been dominant statistically before their surgeries, though aside from both being 6'2", that's where the similarities end. Szapucki is a lefty with a power fastball/curveball combination who strikes opponents out in bunches but who also struggles with his command at times, while Humphreys is a righty gets by more on his exceptional feel for pitching. Naturally, Szapucki has a higher ceiling and could be a #2 or #3 starter if he tightens his command, while Humphreys has a better shot at cracking the majors as a back-end starter who gets by on command. Of course, the big thing in 2019 will be for both to stay healthy. Lastly, 18 year old Simeon Woods-Richardson was just drafted in the second round (48th overall) out of a Houston area high school, showing projectability with a solid 6'3" frame and a low 90's fastball to go with a good curveball and good enough command. He showed well in his small-sample pro debut, posting a 1.56 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.1 innings between complex ball and rookie level Kingsport, so the Mets hope that pro coaching can help him refine the edges of his game and make him into a potential impact prospect. Obviously, the risk is as high here as with any pitcher on this list.

Upper Level Hitters: OF Desmond Lindsay, 2B Luis Carpio, C Tomas Nido, 3B Will Toffey, 3B David Thompson, 3B Michael Paez, and OF Tim Tebow
When it comes to close-to-the-majors talent, the Mets really have nothing in terms of hitters after Peter Alonso and Andres Gimenez, with nobody projecting to be more than a back-up or utility man. 21 year old outfielder Desmond Lindsay may have some of the highest upside in this group, but he has struggled to put it together in the minors so far and slashed just .223/.317/.325 with three home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 96/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between High A St. Lucie and complex ball rehab work. He has good patience at the plate with some speed and feel for the barrel, but at the close of his fourth pro season, it looks like he'll never reach that ceiling. 2019 will be a big make or break season for him as a prospect. 21 year old Luis Carpio had a power breakout in 2018, slashing .219/.290/.364 with twelve home runs and an 81/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games, all but one of which was at St. Lucie. I call that a power breakout because from 2014-2017, Carpio hit just four home runs total, so twelve in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League is a different look. Otherwise, he has a pretty light bat that he makes up for with good infield defense, looking like a back-up second baseman at this point. 24 year old Tomas Nido has already played in the majors, catching 39 games over 2017 and 2018 and slashing .181/.210/.255 along the way. Spending the rest of the season mostly with AA Binghamton as well as a few games at AAA Las Vegas, he slashed .272/.300/.431 with five home runs and a 38/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, showing good contact and a bit of power not enough for him to be even the short term answer to the Mets' catching problems but enough to put him in the back-up conversation for 2019. 23 year old Will Toffey has a pretty average bat, but his great plate discipline and good glove make him a player to watch. In 2018, he slashed .248/.374/.406 with nine home runs and an 85/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Oakland's High A Stockton and New York's Binghamton, actually getting better with his promotion to AA. As I said, the bat is pretty average, but look for him to keep moving up through the minors and end up in the majors as a back-up soon. 25 year old David Thompson was injured for much of 2018 (.244/.314/.359 in 25 games) but shows some marginal power and patience when healthy, and he could be a useful, power hitting pinch hitter as soon as 2019. 24 year old Michael Paez had a solid season at St. Lucie, slashing .270/.340/.404 with eleven home runs and a 79/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games. He has a pretty average all around game, but he also has no glaring weaknesses and has a good shot at challenging Carpio for that utility infielder spot. Lastly, we cannot write this section without talking about 31 year old Tim Tebow, an outfielder who we all know better as the former quarterback for the Florida Gators and later the Denver Broncos, among other teams. At AA Binghamton in 2018, he slashed .273/.336/.399 with six home runs and a 103/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 84 games, showing a surprisingly useful bat even if he still struck out at an alarming 34.6% rate. At 31 years old, I still doubt he ends up anything more than a publicity stunt, but at least with his decent production at AA, he may actually be worth the shot he's given to prove himself.

Lower Level Hitters: 3B Mark Vientos, SS Shervyen Newton, 2B Luis Santana, SS Ronny Mauricio, OF Adrian Hernandez, C Francisco Alvarez, and OF Freddy Valdez
The Mets have a lot more upside down on the farm, especially with hitters, and you could argue that their best non-Alonso/Gimenez talent passed through rookie level Kingsport this year. I got to head over to Pulaski, Virginia to see them play in August, where I came away impressed with a few players. 18 year old Mark Vientos probably has the best combination of upside and floor in this section, having slashed .287/.389/.489 with 11 home runs and a 43/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games at Kingsport. The 6'4" third baseman showed power, plate discipline, and solid defense in his stint in the Appalachian League, and he could turn himself into an impact prospect with a similar season next year in A ball by proving himself against higher velocities. 19 year old Shervyen Newton was part of the Kingsport crew this year, slashing .280/.408/.449 with five home runs and an 84/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. He has a very patient approach that should continue to enable high on-base percentages for him, and with a loose, whippy swing from a 6'4" frame, he could have plus power in time. Contact will be the main thing for him to work on, as he struggles to catch up to harder fastballs, but I think the issue is mechanical and the Mets could have a serious prospect if they coach him right. 19 year old Luis Santana, yet another member of the Kingsport Mets this past season, had a big year statistically and slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs, eight stolen bases, and an excellent 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. He's just 5'8" but plays bigger, generating some decent power by employing a large leg kick without sacrificing that advanced approach. That leg kick might get him in trouble a bit against higher level pitching (it even did in the Appalachian League from time to time), but I would not underestimate him. 17 year old Ronny Mauricio is extremely young, and he slashed .273/.304/.410 with three home runs and a 40/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games in his pro debut this year, playing mostly in complex ball with some exposure up at Kingsport. He's a slick fielding shortstop that has the tools to stay there, and while his bat is unproven, he handled complex ball well (.279/.307/.421) and should improve as he gets older. His overall offensive game is essentially average, obviously with a lot of time to grow and develop his skill set. He could be a breakout candidate for 2019 but we may have to wait until 2020 to see who Mauricio really is as a prospect. 17 year old Adrian Hernandez was right behind him, slashing .261/.351/.386 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 52/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games in complex ball. Despite standing 5'9", he shows more power and speed than Mauricio but profiles as an average-defending right fielder rather than a good shortstop. Like Mauricio, Hernandez has a lot to prove before moving up the lists or being labeled an impact prospect. Lastly, 17 year olds Francisco Alvarez and Freddy Valdez were both just signed out of Latin America and have not played yet. Alvarez is a Venezuelan catcher who is extremely raw (which is not surprising given he just turned 17), showing power and arm strength but needing work on the rest of his game. Valdez is a power hitting Dominican outfielder who already stood at 6'3" and 210 pounds on his 17th birthday, but like Alvarez, he'll need to work on his approach significantly. It's easy to project these recent signees as potential future stars, but there is also high risk involved and many don't make it past A ball.

2017 Draft Review: Oakland Athletics

First 5 rounds: Austin Beck (1-6), Kevin Merrell (CBA-33), Greg Deichmann (2-43), Nick Allen (3-81), Will Toffey (4-111), Santi Sanchez (5-141)
Also notable: Parker Dunshee (7-201), Brian Howard (8-231), Jared Poche (9-261), Garrett Mitchell (14-411), Heath Donica (21-621), Hunter Hargrove (25-741)

The A's had a pretty interesting draft, reaching for some players (in my opinion) but also making some good selections. As the draft wore on, they took on a lot of big name college players, which is why you see so many in the "also notable" section, which doesn't even get all of them. As always, the A's placed a premium on guys who know how to get on base, and that should be expected now 15 years after the Moneyball draft.

1-6: OF Austin Beck (my rank: 8)
Beck, a North Carolina high school outfielder, was on nobody's radar at the beginning of the season, but he hit his way not only into the first round, but into the top ten picks, literally right out of the gate. His plus-plus bat speed generates huge power from the right side, and combined with his overall athleticism, he has one of the highest ceilings of his whole draft. If this draft is going to produce any Mike Trouts, Bryce Harpers, or Kris Bryants, Beck has a good chance to be the guy. That said, he is very raw as a player and there is a lot of swing and miss in his game, so the risk is extremely high. Basically, Beck could be Mike Trout, or he could never make the majors. I guess we'll just have to sit back and watch. Beck signed an at-slot bonus of just over $5.3 million.

CBA-33: SS/CF Kevin Merrell (my rank: 75)
Yeah, I don't love this pick. There are a lot of people who really like Merrell, but I just am not one of them, because I don't think any of his power will translate to the next level and he really profiles as a fourth outfielder in my opinion. That said, the USF star's supporters will point to his excellent .384/.464/.569 slash line this season, coupled with seven home runs and 19 stolen bases for the Bulls. He is one of the fastest players in this draft and possibly the fastest in the entire college crop, and his solid bat to ball skills give him a high floor. If he can stick as a shortstop, he has a Jose Reyes ceiling, but his defense at short is so-so and he may have to move to centerfield, where he will be above average defensively. Merrell signed for $1.8 million, which is $233,500 below slot.

2-43: OF Greg Deichmann (my rank: 68)
I also don't love this pick, but I'm more willing to hop on the Deichmann train at pick 43 than I am on the Merrell train at pick 33. Deichmann was decent for LSU in 2016 (.288/.346/.513, 11 HR), but he turned down the Twins in the 26th round. That turned out to be a great decision, as he slashed .309/.418/.583 with 19 home runs for the Tigers this year, showcasing an advanced power bat with desirable leadership skills. There is still a lot of swing and miss in his game (19% strikeout rate), but he does walk a lot (15.8%) and has improved his plate discipline significantly this year. He is on the older side for a college junior, having turned 22 in May, but he can be a 20 homer bat as a corner outfielder down the road. Deichmann has not signed, but it's hard to see him holding out for too long.

3-81: SS Nick Allen (my rank: 23)
Nick Allen is awesome, and if signability wasn't an issue, he could have gone 50 picks higher, or more. On talent alone, Allen is an easy first rounder, perhaps a top ten pick, but he stands just 5'8" with a skinny build, so teams were understandably scared off by his size. However, as I said, he's just awesome. His defensive skills at shortstop are unmatched in this draft, as he shows both incredible range and great arm strength, so there could easily be Gold Gloves in his future. At the plate, he shows very good contact ability, though his power will likely always be well below average due to his size. However, I think he could improve to simply below average power and knock ten home runs per season in the bigs if he can add loft to his swing and stop leaking his power over his front foot. Even without power, he can be an extremely valuable player because of his defense and hitting ability. To top it all off, area scouts absolutely love his character, leadership, intensity, and knowledge of the game. Guys like Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve have succeeded in the majors, so Allen could too. I comped him to Omar Vizquel; how does that sound? Allen hasn't signed yet, and if he does, it will certainly be well over slot.

4-111: 3B Will Toffey (my rank: 95)
Toffey is another one of the more interesting players in the draft. A redshirt junior, Toffey already turned 22 in December, and after two unspectacular seasons at Vanderbilt, he wasn't the hottest name heading into this draft. Though he doesn't have any big tools, he just quietly and steadily hit his way up draft boards, and finished the season slashing .354/.475/.602 with 12 home runs for the Commodores. He shows average to slightly above average power, and average bat, and good defense at third base, but his offensive tools should play up due to his advanced approach at the plate (18.3% walk rate to 11.5% strikeout rate). I really like Toffey, and with his clean swing, I comped him to Chase Headley. He signed an at-slot bonus of $482,600.

14-411: CF Garrett Mitchell (my rank: 38)
Here in the 14th round, Mitchell probably won't sign, especially if the A's can get Nick Allen. However, I'm a big fan of Mitchell, more so than most. He is one of the faster players in this draft, and he should have no problem sticking as an above average centerfielder. At the plate, he has a long, flat swing, but he keeps the barrel of the bat in the zone for a very long time, and the long swing worries me much less because of that. His swing actually reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence, and Mitchell could be a similar player.

Others: 7th rounder Parker Dunshee kicked off a streak of three straight big name senior pitchers from big name programs, as Dunshee has been a stalwart in the Wake Forest rotation for two years and a vital member of its pitching staff for four years. Over the four years, he went 28-10 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 78 games (36 starts), striking out 322 batters over 318.1 innings. He was also great on the Cape back in 2015 (3-2, 2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP). 8th rounder Brian Howard comes from TCU, where he had a similar four year career to Dunshee (26-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 62 games [40 starts]). Howard is a massive, 6'9" right hander with a classic back-end starter projection. 9th rounder Jared Poche was a teammate of Deichmann's at LSU, where Poche has become the school's all time wins leader after going 39-12 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 72 games (69 starts). He doesn't have great stuff, and he'll have to fight to be a #5 starter, but few can match his feel for pitching and ability to work with what he has. He actually had an amazing start to his season that would look really good here, but college baseball does an awful job of keeping stats and LSU doesn't have a game log listed for Poche. I could go through each of his first starts manually by sifting through their box scores but I can just tell you he was untouchable at the beginning of the season. 21st rounder Heath Donica pitched two years for Sam Houston State, where he went 19-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 35 games (32 starts), though he did turn 23 in May. 25th rounder Hunter Hargrove comes from another big name program, Texas Tech, and he had his best season in 2017 by slashing .343/.423/.535 with five home runs for the Red Raiders. It will be tough for him to move up as a first baseman with below average power, but he could find a home in an outfield corner as well.