Sunday, October 17, 2021

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the SEC

2021 draftees: 68. Top school: Arkansas (9)
2021 preseason writeup (published 11/7/2020)

Top draftees:
1-2, Rangers: RHP Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt)
1-10, Mets: RHP Kumar Rocker (Vanderbilt)
1-14, Giants: RHP Will Bednar (Mississippi State)
1-19, Blue Jays: RHP Gunnar Hoglund (Mississippi)
2-40, Red Sox: OF Jud Fabian (Florida)
2-42, Diamondbacks: SS Ryan Bliss (Auburn)
2-44, Rockies: RHP Jaden Hill (Louisiana State)

Beyond hosting both College World Series final teams in Mississippi State, the SEC continued to show why it is college baseball's premier conference in 2021 by leading the way with 68 players drafted. Every team in the league had multiple players selected while five different schools saw at least seven players go in the draft. Meanwhile, Arkansas tied with Texas Tech for the second most players drafted of any individual school with nine, behind only UCLA's ten.

The SEC has always been known for premier pitching, with Vanderbilt righty Jack Leiter earning the largest signing bonus of any player in the draft and four pitchers going in the top nineteen picks a year ago. In 2022, however, the pendulum looks to have swung slightly to the position player side, with a deluge of big bats all jostling for position in the first round. By my count, I see about twelve players who are in a very good position to go in the first round, and while of course that won't be the case come July, it bodes well for the conference's chances of matching or bettering last year's mark of four first round draftees. The depth here is really impressive, and beyond the top couple of names, I really feel bad ranking any of these players outside of the top five and I see very little separation between the top and bottom of the list, which I extended to twelve after doing ten for the other conferences. One interesting trend I noticed was size, as the twelve players on the list average less than 6'1" in height and Hunter Barco (6'4"), the last player on the list, is the only one above 6'2". Not typical for a conference like this one.

1. 3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6', 210 lbs. Born 5/5/2001. Hometown: Queen Creek, AZ.
2021: 17 HR, .352/.439/.676, 2 SB, 58/33 K/BB in 63 games.
LSU made a huge splash by hiring away Arizona head coach Jay Johnson this summer, and that move paid immediate dividends when all-everything slugger Jacob Berry decided to follow his coach across the country on Interstate 10. As a true freshman last spring (albeit the age of a sophomore), he was one of the best hitters in the entire country and served as the centerpiece to arguably college baseball's best lineup, slugging the Wildcats to their first College World Series appearance since 2016. He then cranked it up another notch with the US Collegiate National Team, slashing .387/.475/.871 with four home runs in eleven games against arguably the best amateur competition in the country. Berry may only be six feet tall, on the shorter side for a slugger, but he packs as much strength into that smaller frame as you could possibly expect. He trusts that strength and utilizes a simple, direct swing from both sides of the plate to tap into easy plus raw power very consistently in games, never having to sell out or swing out of his shoes to get there. The Phoenix-area product is a patient hitter that draws his walks and keeps his strikeouts to a reasonable level, and he's completely unfazed by high-end velocity and offspeed stuff. There is no doubt that Berry will handle the slight jump in competition from the Pac-12 to the SEC, and very few have any concerns about his ability to continue to produce at a high level immediately in pro ball once he's drafted. The bat will be the carrying tool, because he's a below average defender at third base with a choppy glove that may end up having to move to first base. He'll have plenty of bat to profile at first, but as a decent athlete with better mobility than you'd expect for his frame, a team may be able to run him out at the hot corner if they're patient and prioritize development in that part of his game. Regardless, offensive production is what earns the big bucks and he has it in spades, and between Berry (.352/.439/.676, 17 HR), Dylan Crews (.362/.453/.663, 18 HR), Cade Doughty (.308/.368/.546, 13 HR), Gavin Dugas (.295/.407/.641, 19 HR), and Tre' Morgan (.357/.441/.526, 6 HR), you'll be hard pressed to find a more intimidating lineup in 2022 than the one in Baton Rouge.

2. SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6', 180 lbs. Born 1/24/2001. Hometown: Selah, WA.
2021: 16 HR, .252/.341/.559, 9 SB, 84/31 K/BB in 61 games.
Jacob Berry has been a more consistent hitter to this point in his career, so I have him as the number one prospect in the conference, but Carter Young has the higher ceiling and probably a better chance to break through and earn a number one overall selection. An immediate contributor in his shortened freshman season in 2020 (.328/.373/.377), he carried that success over into the 2021 season and was one of the SEC's more dynamic players for much of the season, but he injured his shoulder in May and when he returned a few weeks later, he didn't look like the same player. The post-injury slump hurt his overall numbers and he finished with over a 30% strikeout rate, but after taking the summer off to rest and heal, his proponents expect huge things in 2022. Young, like Berry, is a switch hitter with power from both sides of the plate, taking healthy, uppercut hacks that really help him channel his lean strength into useable game power. The swing can get big at times, but when he's going right he's an extremely tough out that is equally willing to take you deep or slap a line drive the other way. There has always been swing and miss in his game, an issue exacerbated by the injury, but the hope is that a healthy 2022 combined with another year of development can help get that under control. On the flip side, the Washington state product is an above average defender who will definitely stick at shortstop, with a plus arm and plenty of range to positively impact the game with his glove. Teams love up the middle athletes early in the draft, and Vanderbilt is no stranger to producing that kind of talent between shortstop Dansby Swanson (first overall, 2015) and utility man Austin Martin (fifth overall, 2020). Young is a better defender than Martin and has more power than both, so how high he goes in 2022 ultimately hinges on the consistency of his hit tool.

3. RHP Peyton Pallette, Arkansas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 175 lbs. Born 5/9/2001. Hometown: Benton, AR.
2021: 1-2, 4.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 67/20 K/BB in 56 innings.
The first time I heard Peyton Pallette's name was a roller coaster day and I wrote about it here. Having no idea who he was, I watched him start off an extremely experienced and disciplined top of the Texas lineup six up, six down for two innings, never throwing a fastball under 95 and striking out the last two (Big 12 #6 prospect Trey Faltine and 2021 #196 overall prospect Ivan Melendez) on six consecutive fastballs. The dude just blew me away. After that sensational season opening start, he went on to have some ups and downs including rough starts against Alabama (1 IP, 4 ER) and Ole Miss (4 IP, 7 ER), but he showed enough to stand firm as the top pitching prospect in the best conference in baseball. Pallette sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, tops out around 97, and gets tremendous ride on the pitch that just seems to explode onto hitters. He adds a plus-plus curveball with elite spin rates that looks to be one of the best breaking balls in the entire class, just crashing down on hitters as if it was spiked like a volleyball. To this point, the Little Rock-area native doesn't use his changeup as much and it's a below average pitch, so that will certainly be a point of development in 2022 and beyond. Despite standing a skinny 6'1", he's a strong kid that holds his velocity deep into starts through a low effort delivery, portending to a safe bet future in the rotation. Pallette often shows above average command but can get hit when he falls behind in the count or grooves one over the plate, so just a bit more consistency in that regard will be another thing to work on if he wants to be the first pitcher off the board on draft day. Relatively young for the class with a May birthday and younger than true sophomore Jacob Berry, there's as much talent in his right arm as anyone in college baseball and he looks the part of a high ceiling ace with some minor smoothing out of the edges in his game. The fastball/curveball combination is elite and the arm strength, body control, and athleticism are there, so the focus just needs to turn to his changeup and avoiding those lapses in command.

4. C Hayden Dunhurst, Mississippi.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 5'11", 220 lbs. Born 9/19/2000. Hometown: Carriere, MS.
2021: 7 HR, .280/.385/.435, 3 SB, 44/32 K/BB in 65 games.
Hayden Dunhurst hasn't quite put it all together yet, but strong defensive catchers who can produce in power conferences are always in demand and he firmly fits that profile. One of the top recruits nationally to reach campus from the 2019 high school ranks, Dunhurst has seen his game translate much more smoothly to the SEC than many anticipated and he now finds himself in the conversation as one of the top catchers in a loaded college class along with Mississippi State's Logan Tanner, Arizona's Daniel Susac, and Georgia Tech's Kevin Parada. He may be a bit undersized for a power hitter at 5'11", but like Jacob Berry he packs a ton of strength into that shorter frame and shows plus raw power from both sides of the plate. To this point, it hasn't shown up in games as much because he has mostly focused on making contact and hitting for average, opting to use the whole field and look for line drives rather than turn on and lift balls out of the park. Some would like to see the southern Mississippi product accept more swing and miss into his game to allow the power to play up, but regardless he has plenty of bat to profile as a starting catcher in the big leagues. Dunhurst really shines on defense, where his cannon arm ranks among the best in college baseball and can completely shut down the running game. While that plus-plus arm is his calling card, he's also come along very nicely with his glovework and figures to be an above average defender in that regard with a little more work, making the whole defensive package extremely enticing. Usually you have take a "glove-first" catcher to get that kind of defense and just hope his bat comes along, but Dunhurst has the bat. He can take it a step further by putting it all together in 2022 and tapping that power without letting his strikeout rate creep up too much, and if he can, he may be able to push to the front of the college catching pack.

5. C Logan Tanner, Mississippi State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 215 lbs. Born 11/10/2000. Hometown: Lucedale, MS.
2021: 15 HR, .287/.382/.525, 0 SB, 48/39 K/BB in 67 games.
Hayden Dunhurst and Logan Tanner have very similar profiles and are very close on this list, but I ultimately decided to put Dunhurst first because he's a switch hitter, his tools are a touch louder, and Tanner could not take advantage of Dunhurst's slower College National Team run (.160/.267/.160) as he struggled in his own right (.182/.217/.318). Tanner, also a southern Mississippi native who grew up a couple counties over from Dunhurst, was not as highly rated a recruit but was fantastic for Mississippi State in its run to the College World Series championship. He's a very well-rounded hitter that shows above average power from a compact right handed swing, effectively deploying the strength in his sturdy frame into usable game power. His patient, mature approach at the plate helps him tap that power consistently against good pitching, though his pure bat to ball skills are more average and he can sometimes get himself into trouble in deep counts. Behind the plate, he's an extremely good athlete that figures to be a plus defender, showing plenty of agility back there that is apparent to any observer. His plus arm plays up even further due to that agility, with the ability to throw from multiple angles as evidenced by this great throw against Ole Miss. With above average power that he taps in games, a strong enough approach to work in pro ball and make up for any deficiencies in his pure contact ability, and strong defense at a premium position, there are very few weaknesses in this profile and Tanner has a chance to work his way up as a starting catcher.

6. RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 1/3/2001. Hometown: Cumming, GA.
2021: 5-0, 1.44 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 100/15 K/BB in 56.1 innings.
I will usually be the low man on college relievers. Their track record is as poor as any demographic in the draft, as they're already often performing at maximum capacity and don't get that "bump" in stuff that college starters do in shifting to relief work in pro ball. That said, Landon Sims is different. Despite facing extremely tough competition in 2021, he still struck out 46.9% of his opponents with an elite fastball/slider combination that very few hitters have solved to this point. Sims sits in the mid 90's and will regularly touch 97 without exerting himself, and the pitch plays up further because he gets tremendous riding life that makes it appear to catch another gear halfway to the plate. If you want the dictionary definition of an "explosive" fastball, here's what it looks like from behind the plate. On top of that plus-plus pitch, we have another one in the slider. Sims' slider has devastating late bite, just diving into oblivion at the last possible second and leaving hitters looking silly like this. On top of having two plus-plus pitches, he shows above average command that really helps the two pitches play off each other, something you very rarely see from an amateur pitcher with that kind of stuff. He served as the closer in 2021, often pitching two or three innings at a time, but not because he lacks the ability to start. Mississippi State's staff was absolutely loaded and Sims' mentality on the mound fits perfectly in a closer's role, as he's a fire breathing competitor that will make damn sure you see nothing but his very best from start to finish. He lives for the big stage and relishes in high pressure situations, so he'll for sure be able to handle the bright lights of even MLB's larger markets. So why #6? First, the five players ahead of him project as a middle of the order slugger, an all-around catalyst, an ace, and back to back starting catchers, so that's all elite talent and nothing to be ashamed of falling behind. Second is the reliever thing, and you can see the track record in this tweet. When a starter converts to relieving in pro ball, his stuff takes a natural jump as he goes from throwing six or seven innings at a time to just one or two, but a college reliever doesn't get that bump. I really want to see how Sims' stuff holds up in a starting role in 2022 before feeling comfortable with him as a first round pick, especially as it pertains to holding velocity (he's usually about 93-95, T97 in relief) and keeping that devastating late snap on his slider. We also haven't seen much of a changeup because he really hasn't needed it. There's no reason not to think he can make that jump to starting, especially given his efficient delivery, ridiculous arm strength, strong command, and overall competitiveness on the mound, so he still ranks among the best in the SEC and therefore the best in college baseball. We'll just have to wait and see.

7. 3B Cade Doughty, Louisiana State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 3/26/2001. Hometown: Denham Springs, LA.
2021: 13 HR, .308/.368/.546, 1 SB, 32/22 K/BB in 58 games.
Cade Doughty does not have the loudest tools in the SEC, and certainly does not compare favorably to the other names on this impressive list when it comes to power, speed, or overall athleticism. However, the kid is somewhat reminiscent of another former LSU Tiger, Daniel Cabrera, in that he can just flat out play baseball. I actually like Doughty significantly more than I liked Cabrera, and I (like many others) am enamored enough with his natural feel for the game to rank him high on this list. Doughty was a highly regarded recruit coming out of the Baton Rouge-area high school ranks and I liked him then as well, and all he's done since then is just hit and hit and hit. Doughty is a very professional hitter that makes a ton of contact from the right side, consistently going with the pitch and working an all fields approach. With a bat path that is naturally long through the hitting zone, he has some margin for error on pitches he mistimes. Not just a slappy gap to gap hitter, he has plenty of leverage in his 6'1" frame and taps into above average power both to his pull side and the opposite field. The end product is a very well-rounded bat that has a chance to produce 15-20 home runs annually in the majors while posting relatively high on-base percentages, and I have a feeling he's going to end up closer to his ceiling than his floor. In 2022, he might want to get a bit more selective to try to draw a few more walks, as he tends to make contact early in the count and walked in just 8.5% of his plate appearances last year. He also provides value on defense, with good range and instincts in the infield and an above average arm that would make him a net-positive defender at either second or third base.

8. 2B Robert Moore, Arkansas.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 5'9", 170 lbs. Born 3/31/2002. Hometown: Leawood, KS.
2021: 16 HR, .283/.384/.558, 6 SB, 51/41 K/BB in 61 games.
Every year, guys come around that are just ballers. Last year it was Ryan Bliss, now with the Diamondbacks, and this year Robert Moore seems like the guy. The son of Royals general manager Dayton Moore, Robert is undersized and lacks big tools but can just flat out play baseball with the best of them. He graduated early from Shawnee Mission East High School in the Kansas City suburbs and enrolled at Arkansas when he was just 17, and promptly hit .317/.403/.444 as a freshman despite not being old enough to vote. Moore continued that success with a strong sophomore season at 18-19 years old and then hit .351/.415/.378 as one of the youngest members of the US Collegiate National Team. Standing just 5'9" and with a skinny frame at that, he works counts extremely well and is completely unfazed by elite, older pitching, taking professional at bats consistently day in and day out. The switch hitter is very mechanically sound in his swing from both sides of the plate, creating a ton of whip that gives him more power than you'd expect for his size, especially to the pull side. That power didn't really show up with wood bats for the CNT, where he had just one extra base hit (a double) in eleven games, and given his size it's fair to question how much he'll have in pro ball. It's not quite a Nick Madrigal profile because there is some swing and miss in his game, and he may have to decide going forward what kind of a hitter he wants to be and how much contact he'll trade for power. To me, how much the power will show up with wood bats is probably the most important question. Moore is a sparkplug on defense as well, playing a standout second base for Arkansas and potentially showing the ability to move over to shortstop in pro ball if he can get a little stronger and improve his arm a touch. Either way, he's a plus runner and has the range to play anywhere on the diamond. There are players you don't bet against, and Bob Moore seems like one of them with a Dustin Pedroia ceiling.

9. OF Jud Fabian, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 9/27/2000. Hometown: Ocala, FL.
2021: 20 HR, .249/.364/.560, 6 SB, 79/40 K/BB in 59 games.
We spent a lot of words on Jud Fabian in 2021, and we're going to do it again in 2022. Having graduated a semester early from Trinity Catholic High School in Ocala, Florida in 2018, he enrolled at Florida in time for the 2019 season and had established himself as one of the top prospects in the country (and #3 in the SEC) by the time the 2021 season rolled around. What ensued was an extremely up and down junior year for Fabian, who had four multi-homer games (including one against #2 overall pick Jack Leiter) but at one point also managed to strike out 15 times in 22 hitless plate appearances. The Red Sox still drafted him with the 40th overall pick and offered him a multi-million dollar signing bonus, but it wasn't anywhere close to the $3 million he had asked for (a price some other teams were reportedly willing to meet) and he's returning to school. Last year, Fabian was one of the youngest eligible players from a four year school, still two and a half months shy of his 21st birthday, so he'll be age appropriate for this year's draft and is younger than Hayden Dunhurst. He does a lot of things well and really only has one weakness in his game. The Ocala product has plus raw power and does an excellent job of lifting the ball, with a swing ideal for blasting balls out of the park that has done so consistently against the best arms in the country. As up and down as his season was, he never went more than four games without a home run in the regular season. He also has a very strong eye at the plate, effectively working counts and recognizing spin even against premium velocity and stuff. The problem with his bat, however, is that he simply lacks the barrel accuracy to consistently tap his power and get on base. Fabian's uppercut swing means that even though he rarely chases bad pitches, he often swings through hittable ones and can be prone to long bouts of coming up empty at the plate. In 2022, he'll have to prove he can be more consistent, because another year of ups and downs could knock him out of the top two rounds or so. However, even a small reduction in his strikeout rate where he at least avoids the major slumps that plagued him in 2021 could lock him into the first round. On defense, Fabian provides plenty of value with plus speed and range that will fit very well in center field, taking some pressure off his bat and also helping him out on the bases.

10. LHP Connor Prielipp, Alabama.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 1/10/2001. Hometown: Tomah, WI.
2021: 1-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 12/1 K/BB in 7 IP.
Connor Prielipp is somewhat of the mystery man in this conference. He began his college career perhaps as well as you could possibly expect, tossing 26 shutout innings with 43 strikeouts, six walks, and just nine hits allowed in five non-conference starts against Northeastern, UNLV, Harvard, Lipscomb, and McNeese State. The first four came in the shortened 2020 season, while the McNeese State start ended up being his only start of the 2021 season as his elbow gave out on him. He came back for two much less effective relief appearances against Auburn and LSU in mid-April and mid-May, respectively (2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K), but went down with Tommy John surgery and will likely miss the 2022 season as well. It's not often that an injured pitcher with just 28 collegiate innings to his name can make a first round push, especially when they were not a highly regarded recruit, but Prielipp really is special. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has been up to 97, velocity he has maintained throughout his handful of starts. His slider is a plus pitch with late bite, darting under bats at the last second, and his changeup is an above average pitch in its own right. With a simple, easy delivery, the 6'2" lefty commands his pitches well and has all of the traits you look for in a frontline starting pitcher, and if he hadn't gotten hurt he may very well be the number one player on this list. However, the fact that we haven't seen how he handles a larger workload is important, as he'll be asked to throw roughly seven times his career high in innings in a big league rotation, and for that reason you can't project him as a starter with as much certainty as a guy like Peyton Pallette. Prielipp's five starts have also come against weaker competition, with the two worst innings of his career being the only two he threw against SEC teams (albeit while hurt). On talent alone, he might be the best in the conference, so his low ranking on this list is really just a byproduct of the depth of the conference combined with the unfortunate fact that we just won't have seen him pitch in a very long time come draft day.

11. OF Cayden Wallace, Arkansas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 8/7/2001. Hometown: Greenbrier, AR.
2021: 14 HR, .279/.369/.500, 0 SB, 61/29 K/BB in 60 games.
Cayden Wallace was one of the top recruits to make it to campus following the shutdown, and he immediately made an impact by working his way into the middle of arguably the best lineup in the country as a true freshman. After swatting 14 home runs as a teenager playing an SEC schedule, he continued to produce with wood bats in the Cape Cod League and slashed .290/.352/.468 with two home runs over 18 games. Because he turned 20 over the summer and will be 21 a few weeks after the draft, he'll be eligible this year as a true sophomore. The first thing you notice with Wallace is the power, as he produces big exit velocities and crushes baseballs impressive distances from the right side. Not the biggest guy in the world at six feet tall, he packs in plenty of lean muscle and produces a ton of force. Evaluators saw him as power-over-hit in high school and that was the case during his freshman season, but he handled SEC pitching better than many expected right out of the gate and was unfazed by the premium stuff he saw on the Cape. There is still some swing and miss in his game with a right handed uppercut that can get a bit long at times, but the barrel does get into the hitting zone early and he does a great job of staying through the ball. As his pitch recognition skills sharpen with age, he should become an average hitter in the big leagues with the potential for plus power. The central Arkansas native is a below average runner but certainly not a base clogger, and his cannon right arm gives him a chance to be an average defender in right field. He played infield in high school and could stick at third base with some more seasoning, and he may get the opportunity to prove himself a bit at the position in 2022 after playing mostly right field in 2021. There's a little more projection required with Wallace because he doesn't control the strike zone as well as many of the names above him on this list, but he's also younger than most of them as well. Either way, expect big things from him in 2022.

12. LHP Hunter Barco, Florida.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 220 lbs. Born 12/15/2000. Hometown: Jacksonville, FL.
2021: 10-3, 4.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 94/26 K/BB in 83 innings.
Hayden Dunhurst, Landon Sims, Cade Doughty, and Cayden Wallace may have been nationally-known prospects coming out of high school, but Hunter Barco was the most hyped of all of them at Bolles High School in Jacksonville, earning first round grades from some evaluators. His performance at Florida has been more up and down than he may have liked so far, but with a 3.52 ERA and a sharp 120/32 strikeout to walk ratio through 102.1 innings over two seasons, he remains very much a contender for the first round. Barco has a deep arm plunge in his delivery and comes from a low three quarters slot that gives a unique look to hitters, especially from the left side, getting down the mound well with his lower half and showing off his athleticism. His stuff can be inconsistent, with a fastball that can get up to 96-97 at its best but which has also been known to drop into the upper 80's. The slider is his best pitch, a plus, sweepy breaker when it's on that creates a lot of confused swings, while his split changeup gives him another above average pitch. Barco's in-zone command can come and go but he does a very good job of pounding the strike zone even when he isn't feeling as precise with his location, and only once in his twenty career starts has he walked more than three batters in an outing. The 6'4" lefty has projection remaining and is a very good athlete, and he gave a glimpse at his ceiling this summer when he struck out eight of the ten batters he faced for the US Collegiate National Team. On the docket for 2022 will be a bit more consistency, which could help him overtake Connor Prielipp, Landon Sims, and Peyton Pallette as the best arm in the conference.

Honorable Mentions
Given the depth of this conference, I wanted to touch on a couple more names that just missed. Vanderbilt's Spencer Jones was the first name off the list, as he hasn't received much playing time in Nashville but slashed an impressive .309/.409/.457 on the Cape and shows plus raw power from a 6'7" frame. He was one of the more famous players in the 2019 prep class out of high school in the San Diego area but made it to campus after injuries wiped out his senior season, and at the time he drew early round interest as a pitcher with a low 90's fastball and an above average curveball as well. He hasn't pitched at all for Vanderbilt and has only played in 48 games overall in two seasons, so it will be interesting to see how much he can tap that power in games on a consistent basis in 2022 and whether his strong plate discipline can translate to a plus hit tool despite the natural swing and miss you get with arms as long as his. And maybe we'll finally get to see him pitch. Tennessee's Blade Tidwell is another interesting draft-eligible sophomore who will turn 21 in June, coming off a strong true-freshman season in the Volunteer rotation where he had a 3.74 ERA and a 90/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 98.2 innings. The 6'4" righty has a power right arm that can run his fastball up to 97 with ease, sitting in the mid 90's and showing very good feel to spin both a slider and curveball as well. His control is ahead of his command but he pounds the strike zone consistently and rarely hurts himself with walks, giving him a high floor as a back-end starter with a mid-rotation ceiling. Florida's Brandon Sproat might have the strongest arm in the entire conference, but he has a 5.53 ERA and a 26/18 strikeout to walk ratio over just 27.2 innings because he's struggled to throw strikes. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch 99 in relief, while his above average slider provides an out pitch. To this point, he looks like a reliever because of that below average command and the lack of a reliable changeup, but there are no glaring issues in his delivery and more consistent innings in 2022 might help him pull it together enough to earn a shot as a starter. Lastly, LSU's Eric Reyzelman is one of the more interesting transfers out there, having come over from San Francisco. While his numbers against weaker competition weren't that impressive over two years with the Dons (5.72 ERA, 56/36 K/BB in 50.1 IP), he was much stronger on the Cape this summer (2.93 ERA, 38/8 K/BB in 27.2 IP) and he's a breakout candidate for 2022. The 6'2" righty now sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can touch 96-97 in short stints, adding a full arsenal behind it headlined by an above average slider. Reyzelman has a very loose, athletic delivery with some deception and is young for the class, in fact younger than true-sophomore Tidwell despite being a junior.

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

2021 Dugout Edge MVP's and Cy Young's

AL MVP

Winner: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, Angels.
46 HR, .257/.372/.592, 26 SB, 152 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR in 158 games.
9-2, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 156/44 K/BB, 3.0 fWAR, in 130.1 innings.

Runner-up: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays.
48 HR, .311/.401/.601, 4 SB, 166 wRC+, 6.7 fWAR in 161 games.

Honorable mention: SS Marcus Semien, Blue Jays.
45 HR, .265/.334/.538, 15 SB, 131 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 162 games.

To me, this wasn't particularly close. Yeah, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a great season at the plate, but it wasn't an outlier even just looking at the past few seasons. His AL-leading 166 wRC+ was four points behind Bryce Harper for the MLB lead, and it would have placed fourth in 2019 behind Mike Trout (177), Christian Yelich (174), and Alex Bregman (167). Combine Guerrero's 166 wRC+ with little defensive value and you still have a very good, MVP-caliber season, but I don't think we can pretend it was some historical run that Shohei Ohtani is unjustly overshadowing because of some novelty. "If he's always going to pitch and hit, should we just give it to him every year?" If he does it at this level, and nobody steps up with a better season, then yes. It's not just "some novelty" and here's why.

Ohtani owns this award through and through. Critics will point to his .257 batting average and 189 strikeouts, but that's about it and it's a terrible argument. The guy walked in nearly 15% of his plate appearances to turn that unremarkable .257 average into a very strong .372 on-base percentage, while his 46 bombs (just one less than Vladdy) meant that he slugged nearly .600 on the year. His 152 wRC+ was actually the second highest in the American League behind only Guerrero and directly ahead of Aaron Judge (149), Matt Olson (147), and Kyle Tucker (146). And he stole 26 bases. Are you going to tell me that's not a great season? On its own, it's definitely not enough to unseat Guerrero as the best hitter in the American League, but it's reasonably close, isn't it? Throw in the fact that he pitched to a 3.18 ERA and struck out nearly 30% of his opponents while making 23 starts, and it more than makes up for the not-that-big gap in offensive production.

Other critics might point to the Blue Jays finishing fourteen games ahead of the Angels in the standings, but Guerrero was teaming with a star-studded cast including Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Robbie Ray, etc., etc., while Ohtani had, like, a month and a half of Mike Trout? I mean I'm sorry he couldn't will an Angels team that didn't have *a single other pitcher* complete one hundred innings to the playoffs, but he did more than anybody else could have. I don't use WPA (win probability added) when choosing my MVP's, but for those that value tangible contributions to winning real baseball games, it's about as accurate a stat as you can get. And Ohtani led all MLB hitters with 5.36, not including his pitching. That's right, just his bat did more to put the Angels in a position to win real baseball games than any other MLB hitter, including Guerrero.

If I sound negative towards Guerrero, I don't mean to. I absolutely believe Ohtani is the AL MVP, but Guerrero had a damn fine season in his own right. He and Bryce Harper were the only two hitters to reach the .300/.400/.600 threshold, and going back to the last full season in 2019, it was only Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. Not only was he the best hitter in the American League by a comfortable margin, he did it while playing in all but one game and striking out in just over 15% of his plate appearances, something that you just don't often see from power hitters. In fact, he was one of just two American League hitters (along with Jose Ramirez) to hit at least 32 home runs while striking out less than 16% of the time, and he hit 48. I also want to give some love to Marcus Semien, who blasted 45 home runs while playing standout defense at shortstop and appearing in every single game. Jose Ramirez was also considered here.

NL MVP

Winner: OF Bryce Harper, Phillies.
35 HR, .309/.429/.615, 13 SB, 170 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 141 games.

Runner-up: SS Trea Turner, Nationals/Dodgers.
28 HR, .328/.375/.536, 32 SB, 142 wRC+, 6.9 fWAR in 148 games.

Honorable mention: OF Juan Soto, Nationals.
29 HR, .313/.465/.534, 9 SB, 163 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 151 games.

I actually think Trea Turner provided the most value of any player in the NL, and not just because he led in fWAR, but I can't bring myself to give my MVP to a player who split his season between two teams. So it comes down to Bryce Harper and Juan Soto, who had extremely similar seasons, with Harper showing a little more pop and Soto getting on base a touch more and playing ten more games. They also both started (relatively) slowly before heating up in the second half. Harper hit .282/.378/.520 in the first half before turning it around to a .338/.476/.713 line, while Soto was even more extreme at .283/.407/.445 and .348/.525/.639. Additionally, both played moderately decent defense, with Soto winning in OAA (5 to -5) and DRS (3 to -6) and Harper getting the edge by UZR (1.8 to 1.3).

Beyond WAR, I value longevity and consistency highly, and Soto played more while Harper was more consistent. Ultimately, I had to give it to Harper because in the first half of the season, Soto just didn't hit for power. He had just eight extra base hits in his first forty games, so even his second half power surge meant he finished with just 51 to Harper's 78. Soto got on base a lot more, but to be fair, pitchers just weren't throwing to him in the second half with Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Yan Gomes gone from the lineup, and he saw the seventh fewest strikes of any qualified NL hitter in the second half (and all the names above him were extremely aggressive, chase-happy hitters). Absolutely huge credit to him for taking his walks and still doing massive amounts of damage on the balls he did get in the zone, but I still see more value in Harper's second half power surge than Soto's willingness to take his walks.

As a Nationals fan, I don't mean to downplay Juan Soto or his second half discipline – I think he's the single most impressive hitter I've seen since prime Albert Pujols, when I was too young to meaningfully analyze what I was watching beyond emulating his batting stance in backyard wiffleball games. Soto is incredible, and he had an incredible season that's borderline MVP-worthy. And I wouldn't fight you too hard if you picked him over Harper. The consistency and power surge just won me over a tiny bit more than the discipline, while the slow start in terms of Soto's power sits with me a little too much.

Now back to Trea Turner. He led all MLB position players with 6.8 fWAR, but his value goes beyond that. 28 home runs is good, as is a .375 on-base percentage, especially when it's driven by extra base hits and not walks. He went 32/37 in stolen base attempts and played great defense at two positions. It's the most well-rounded profile out there. But I think there's a certain unquantifiable value add that comes with true game-breaking speed like Turner's. When he's on base, it becomes a different baseball game altogether, with pitchers focusing as much on him as they are on the batter. And they have to, because if they forget about him, he'll be on the next base. He wasn't quite the hitter that Juan Soto or Bryce Harper was, but he was on a similar level and added much more defensive value plus that speed. Not just useable speed, but game changing speed. I guess that's where the subjectivity comes in, because he's the MVP if it weren't for the split season.

AL Cy Young

Winner: LHP Robbie Ray, Blue Jays.
13-7, 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 248/52 K/BB in 193.1 innings.

Runner-up: RHP Gerrit Cole, Yankees.
16-8, 3.23 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 243/41 K/BB in 181.1 innings.

Honorable mention: LHP Carlos Rodon, White Sox.
13-5, 2.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 185/36 K/BB in 132.2 innings.

This one was fairly easy for me. Robbie Ray led the AL in innings, ERA, RA9, WHIP, strikeouts, and starts (tied), and he did so in a division with four ninety win teams while traveling around without a home park. Those are traditional stats to value, but I value them. I understand and agree with managers' decisions to shorten the leashes on their starting pitchers because that's what wins ballgames, but that doesn't mean I devalue a pitcher who can pitch deep into games and continue to be effective like Ray. Really, the only blemish was his 33 home runs allowed, fourth most in the AL and enough to inflate his FIP to 3.69, but good pitchers give up dingers. He limited baserunners, he limited runs both earned and unearned, he did it over a large body of work, and he didn't have a home stadium for much of the season. That's a job well done to me.

Gerrit Cole was a pretty easy runner-up for me, too. He was second in strikeouts, WHIP, and FIP, third in ERA and RA9, and fifth in innings. He also did so in a hitter-friendly park and like Ray pitched in that gauntlet AL East. Thirteen of his thirty starts came against the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, making for very consistent tough matchups week in and week out. Cole was gutsy and always a competitor, going at least five innings in 28/30 starts, matching Ray's mark of 28/32 in two fewer starts.

For the last spot, I went between Carlos Rodon and Nathan Eovaldi, who each had very unique pitches for this spot. Rodon's 132.2 innings weren't the traditional big body of work I like to see, but batter for batter, he was the most dominant starting pitcher in the majors. If we dropped the innings qualification to 130, he would have led in ERA, RA9, FIP, and strikeout rate. It's too bad he couldn't tack on perhaps ten to twenty more innings or I might have considered him for the #1 spot. Eovaldi, meanwhile, did not have the traditional stats with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, but he was playing in a hitters' park in a strong division with a poor defense behind him, so a 3.75 ERA in that context becomes a lot more impressive. His .327 opponents' BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was the worst in the league, again pointing to a defense that was of no help to him, while his 195/35 strikeout to walk ratio was a strong note. Lance Lynn also earned consideration.

NL Cy Young

Winner: RHP Corbin Burnes, Brewers.
11-5, 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 234/34 K/BB in 167 innings.

Runner-up: RHP Max Scherzer, Nationals/Dodgers.
15-4, 2.46 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 236/36 K/BB in 179.1 innings.

Honorable mention: RHP Zack Wheeler, Phillies.
14-10, 2.78 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 247/46 K/BB in 213.1 innings.

This was the toughest one to decide, and I actually wouldn't argue putting these three in any order. I typically value large numbers of innings, which would put Zack Wheeler ahead, but Corbin Burnes and Max Scherzer were significantly better on a batter-for-batter basis, so much so that I think they eclipse Wheeler – barely. Burnes was the best starting pitcher in MLB on that batter-for-batter basis, absolutely dominating the three true outcomes to turn up a ridiculous 1.63 FIP, the second best mark of the entire live ball era behind only Pedro Martinez's 1.39 in 1999. You can forgive the low innings total when your success has to be categorized on an all-time scale. The Brewers had a very strong defense this year, but he still managed a relatively high .309 BABIP that indicated bad luck. In addition to FIP, he led the NL in ERA, RA9, fWAR, and strikeout rate. If he had thrown perhaps ten more innings, then I don't think this race would have been close at all.

I originally leaned towards Wheeler over Scherzer given his larger body of work, which I value, but then I checked what exactly Wheeler had on Scherzer. In order to get from Scherzer's line to Wheeler's, you'd have to post a 3.97 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and an 11/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 innings. I wouldn't necessarily have been looking for Cy Young-caliber numbers in those 34 innings to put Wheeler ahead, but I would have at least wanted #3 starter-caliber performance and that's more like a #5. Throw in that Wheeler pitched his entire season in the weak NL East while Scherzer's final seven starts were a gauntlet (Padres, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, Reds, Rockies at Coors, Padres), and that seals Scherzer's edge for second place (though he only had to face one Giants batter all season, LaMonte Wade, when he was still a National). In Scherzer's "smaller sample" 179.1 innings, he was virtually untouchable, leading the NL in WHIP while finishing second in strikeouts and ERA, third in RA9, and fourth in FIP.

Zack Wheeler had a very strong season, one that was more than deserving of consideration. I really value that he led the NL in innings pitched and strikeouts while also finishing fifth in ERA and WHIP. He went at least five innings in 30/32 starts and at least six in 27/32, and he allowed four or fewer earned runs in 30/32. He also never struck out fewer than four batters and never walked more than he struck out. Wheeler was as consistent a workhorse as they come, and he did so without the traditional pitch to contact method. Behind this trio was Walker Buehler, who earned some consideration but was safely behind.

Saturday, October 2, 2021

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the ACC

2021 draftees: 63. Top school: North Carolina State (8)
2021 preseason writeup (published 10/27/2020)

Top draftees:
1-1, Pirates: C Henry Davis (Louisville)
1-15, Brewers: OF Sal Frelick (Boston College)
1-24, Braves: RHP Ryan Cusick (Wake Forest)
CBA-35, Reds: C Matheu Nelson (Florida State)
2-52, Marlins: SS Cody Morissette (Boston College)
2-53, Reds: LHP Andrew Abbott (Virginia)
2-60, A's: 3B Zack Gelof (Virginia)

It was another banner year for the ACC, which saw three players drafted in the first round including first overall pick Henry Davis, and eight drafted by the end of the second competitive balance round. Every school had at least one player drafted, while five different schools (NC State, Louisville, Florida State, Clemson, and Virginia) had at least six draftees. This year already has another trio with firm first round aspirations ready to go, with quite a few more knocking on the door. While this year is more balanced than last year's hitter-heavy class, in which nine of the first eleven draftees were position players, it's hard not to notice an especially exciting group of power bats. On the mound, we'll get to watch a competition between Florida State lefties Bryce Hubbart and Parker Messick every weekend, as both have first round aspirations with Hubbart having jumped ahead on the heels of a strong summer. Below are the top ten prospects in the ACC heading into the 2022 season.

1. C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 8/3/2001. Hometown: Pasadena, CA.
2021: 9 HR, .318/.379/.550, 1 SB, 41/17 K/BB in 52 games.
Kevin Parada was the best position player prospect to reach campus a year ago, having ranked 47th on my 2020 draft board out of Loyola High School in Los Angeles. It's hard to reach those sky-high expectations at times, especially early on, but Parada hit the ground running in Atlanta and has only built on his stock with a massive freshman campaign. Just 52 games into his college career, he has a tough luck third team all-ACC nod (stuck behind first overall pick Henry Davis and fellow Golden Spikes candidate Matheu Nelson) as well as a Baseball America second team freshman all American nod. It's a really, really complete profile that fits right near the top of the draft, and because he's eligible as an older sophomore, he won't turn 21 until shortly after the draft and is the second youngest player on this list. Starting with the bat, Parada takes extremely professional at bats at a young age, especially shining in his ability to make adjustments and grind out at bats. Maybe you can get a pitch or two by him, but you're going to have to be perfect to finish him off. The LA product puts that approach to good use with above average power from his sturdy frame, getting to it easily and consistently with a simple but strong right handed swing that even popped a home run off second overall pick Jack Leiter in the Nashville regional. If there is one critique for Parada's offensive profile, it's that he could use to be a bit more selective at the plate and draw a few more walks, though that's really nitpicking for a 20 year old catcher who just slugged .550 in the ACC with a pretty strong 17.2% strikeout rate. Behind the plate, he faced questions as a high schooler about his ability to stick, but he's gotten much smoother back there after just one year in Atlanta and now should be at least average defensively. He's a smart player who will be able to handle the soft skills of catching in addition to the hard skills, and his strong arm helps keep the running game in check. If the draft were today, this would be a top ten profile that would come into play pretty quickly after the first couple of picks, projecting for 20+ home runs annually with good on-base percentages from a premium position. Similar production in 2022 with perhaps a few more walks could make him the first college bat off the board.

2. OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 210 lbs. Born 2/13/2001. Hometown: Bristol, TN.
2021: 11 HR, .345/.415/.621, 9 SB, 48/17 K/BB in 51 games.
Between Ian Seymour, Carson Taylor, Packy Naughton, and Mark Zagunis, Virginia Tech has had some moderate early round talent in recent years, but it's certainly not on par with most other ACC programs. In 2022, however, the Hokies have a chance to produce not just a first rounder, but a potential top of the draft talent in Gavin Cross. At this point, he may have the most potent bat in the country, period. Ideally built for a power hitter at 6'3", he actually reminds me of Juan Soto in a few ways, including in his frame, swing, feel for the barrel, and raw power. Coming from the base, Cross gets his barrel into the zone early and keeps it there for a long time, enabling him to make consistent contact even if his timing isn't perfect. Once he does make contact, he can and will absolutely obliterate the baseball, crushing screaming line drives with regularity. Watching him a lot in 2021, I felt like I never saw him hit a ball softly, even hitting into the most consistently loud outs of any player I saw. It's plus-plus raw power that he gets to in games, though his approach could use some work. He again reminds me of Soto in the way he locks in on pitches from the hand to the plate, but at this point, he lacks the generational discipline of his Nationals counterpart. Rather, Cross is a very aggressive hitter who tracks pitches well then unleashes on anything he likes, still making consistent contact but limiting his walks perhaps a bit more than you'd like and not always getting the pitch to drive. In the field, it's a corner outfield profile with a chance to be a solid defender in right field because of his strong left arm, but everyone knows they're drafting the bat here. I see Cross having more offensive upside than Kevin Parada, with the potential for 30+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages, though he does need to hone in that approach a bit and he won't provide nearly as much defensive value. As a Virginia Tech alum, I'm very excited to watch him go to work again this spring.

3. LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 5'11", 190 lbs. Born 6/28/2001. Hometown: Windermere, FL.
2021: 6-5, 3.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 94/29 K/BB in 71 innings.
The 2022 Florida State weekend rotation will be as fun as it gets in college baseball, with lefties Bryce Hubbart and Parker Messick set to duke it out for the title of best pitching prospect in the ACC while highly regarded underclassmen Carson Montgomery and Jackson Baumeister will be among those vying for the third spot. While Messick was the team's best pitcher in 2021, it's Hubbart that has now pulled ahead as the frontrunner to be drafted first. He was strong albeit unspectacular as a sophomore this past spring, but absolutely took off in the Cape Cod League with a 0.87 ERA and a 45/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 innings. In fact, after allowing three runs in his first start, he locked in and allowed just one unearned run over his final five starts (spanning 27 innings) against elite competition. Hubbart sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it's steadily creeped up and he's been showing more and more 93's, 94's, and higher as of late and has a chance to sit comfortably in the mid 90's when all is said and done. He rips off a wicked curveball that shows true plus, while his newer slider had the look of a plus pitch at its best on the Cape as well. Add in a solid changeup, and you have one of the best four pitch mixes in the country. He's variously listed between 5'11" and 6'1" depending on where you look, but regardless, he's not the most imposing presence on the mound physically. However, with long arms and legs for his size, the Orlando-area native still offers projection, while his lightning fast right arm adds to the upside. He shows solid average command most of the time, though he does a better job hitting spots with his fastball than with his offspeed stuff, the latter of which still misses plenty of bats simply due to its movement. In pro ball, hanging breaking balls get hammered even when they break like Hubbart's, so that's on the to-do list. To top it all off, he's young for the class with a June birthday, a big positive for some teams. There is serious top of the rotation upside here, and he's currently firmly in the first round picture with the chance to be the first college arm drafted if he pitches this spring like he did over the summer.

4. LHP Parker Messick, Florida State.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6', 225 lbs. Born 10/26/2000. Hometown: Plant City, FL.
2021: 8-2, 3.10 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 126/23 K/BB in 90 innings.
Bryce Hubbart's exceptional Cape run may have vaulted him ahead for now, it's Parker Messick who has the longest track record of success in the Florida State rotation. Messick was lights out in six relief appearances as a freshman (11.2 IP, 1 ER, 19/2 K/BB) and followed that up with a great sophomore season, sandwiched around a very strong run through the Florida Collegiate Summer League in 2020. While Hubbart is projectable and looks to continue trending up, Messick is much more about the now-product and figures to stay more or less the same. That's fine, because he's already a very good pitcher. The Tampa-area product sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 93-94, but it plays up because he hides the ball well and pitches with plenty of deception. He brings a full set of secondaries led by an above average changeup, though both the curveball and slider are consistently average and flash above as well. They lack power, but they show good shape and he consistently locates them to freeze hitters or send them flailing. Messick repeats his delivery well and has the look of a durable starting pitcher, with the ceiling of a #3 guy but a very high likelihood of becoming at least a #4 or a #5. It's probably an early second round projection right now, with the chance to pitch himself into the back of the first round if he can sharpen one of his breaking balls just a little bit. Though he and Hubbart are both Florida State lefties of similar height, that's where the similarities end and opposing lineups will have to be ready for two very different, equally difficult matchups every weekend.

5. LHP Carson Palmquist, Miami.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 175 lbs. Born 10/17/2000. Hometown: Fort Myers, FL.
2021: 1-1, 2.22 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 75/8 K/BB in 44.2 innings.
Carson Palmquist is bound to split scouts as to his upside, because the results are undeniable but there just aren't many big league starting pitchers similar to him. He's coming off an exceptional spring out of the Miami bullpen in which he allowed just 34 baserunners in 44.2 innings (that's a .202 opponents on-base percentage if you're keeping track) and continued to shine with the US Collegiate National Team over the summer, and in 2022 he seems to be a frontrunner for ACC Pitcher of the Year. A true lefty sidearmer, his fastball has been steadily ticking up, from the upper 80's when he first got to Miami to the low 90's this spring and touching as high as 96. He adds a short, plus slider that's really difficult to pick up, as well as a solid changeup. The 6'3" lefty commands everything well and dominates the strike zone, controlling at bats from start to finish and leaving hitters more than a little frustrated when they just can't track his stuff. Palmquist probably comes with the highest floor in this conference, as a lefty sidearm reliever that touches 96 with a plus slider and command is already valuable as it is, but there are questions as to his upside. He averaged roughly five outs per appearance in 2021 and never went more than three innings, and there just aren't many sidearm starting pitchers in the big league as it is. His operation is comparable to Chris Sale, but Sale is an exception, not the rule. Now, if anybody can make that uphill climb to becoming a full time MLB starter from this starting point, it's him. It will be really interesting to see how Miami handles him in 2022, and if he does pick up 60-70 innings in the Hurricanes rotation without a drop off in effectiveness, it will be a first round profile.

6. RHP Henry Williams, Duke.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 200 lbs. Born 9/18/2001. Hometown: Darien, CT.
2021: 3-3, 3.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 45/10 K/BB in 37 innings.
Unlike the five names above him on this list, Henry Williams does not have a big track record either in the ACC or in summer ball. Instead, he's more of a projection play than anything else, but someone who many in the industry think is heading for a breakout in 2022. Williams only made one unsuccessful relief appearance in 2020, then was a steady member of the Duke rotation for the first month and a half of the 2021 season before going down with arm soreness in April, after which he only made one more appearance in the Knoxville regional. For now, his fastball sits in the low 90's, only topping out around 93, while his slider and changeup are solid to above average pitches but not true bat-missers yet. Projection is the name of the game, as the 6'5" righty has a ton of room to fill out his ideal pitcher's frame and figures to add significant power to his stuff. He has an extremely loose, athletic delivery that he repeats consistently, giving him above average command at a young age while simultaneously portending plenty of opportunity to add velocity as he gets stronger. The Connecticut product also gets high spin rates on all of his pitches, giving extra life to his fastball and sharpening the bite on his slider. To top it off, he's extremely young for the class and won't turn 21 until September, making him the youngest player on this list despite being a grade ahead of #1 ranked Kevin Parada. Everything in this profile, from the size and frame to the athleticism, present stuff, command, and youth, points to an ace in the making. His ceiling is as high as anybody on this list and he could be the first one drafted come next July, but projection is just projection until you actually make good on it so the to-do list is also longer than most other names here. It would be nice to see his fastball creep into that 94-95 range more often rather than sitting closer to 90, as it would be to see him get a few more whiffs on that slider, and teams will also want to see him last a full season in the Blue Devil rotation given he only has 37.2 career innings to his name. Check off those boxes and he could go in the top ten.

7. OF Dylan Brewer, Clemson.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'2", 180 lbs. Born 9/29/2000. Hometown: Latta, SC.
2021: 10 HR, .207/.332/.420, 6 SB, 65/29 K/BB in 49 games.
Dylan Brewer is one of the bigger boom or bust candidates in the conference. He has been very inconsistent at Clemson and struck out in 30% of his plate appearances this spring, but had a loud summer in the Coastal Plain League and slashed .350/.444/.608 while cutting his strikeout rate in half. Brewer is as tooled up as anyone in the conference, with plus raw power functioning as his carrying tool. He generates high exit velocities with long limbs and a strong frame, showing a smooth left handed hack. That swing can get long at times and he struggles with offspeed stuff, so for now the hit tool is well below average, but a patient approach and good pitch selection ability bode well for his ability to improve on it. An above average runner, he has a chance to be above average in right field and provide value on both sides of the ball. Going into 2022, scouts will be watching the swing and miss in Brewer's game closely, and if he can get his strikeout rate under 25% or so, he could go in the top two rounds. While the Coastal Plain League isn't quite the Cape, it still provides strong competition and his exceptional performance there bodes well for his ability to continue to improve as a hitter. He has power, speed, a professional approach, and is trending upward, so it's just time for those pure bat to ball skills to come around and tie the whole profile together.

8. OF Dalton Rushing, Louisville.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'11, 230 lbs. Born 2/21/2001. Hometown: Brighton, TN.
2021: 4 HR, .254/.342/.463, 1 SB, 21/8 K/BB in 28 games.
Louisville consistently has one of the deepest lineups in the ACC and therefore the country, so to this point, Dalton Rushing has not seen the field much. He's played just 38 games over two seasons and showed well (.269/.364/.495), but it was his time on the Cape that really boosted his stock. This summer, he hit .319/.406/.543 with seven home runs against the best competition in college baseball, and he'll hope to carry that momentum into a season where he figures to get more consistent playing time. He shows above average raw power from the left side, a product of big time strength in his compact 5'11" frame as well as a simple swing that helps him find the barrel consistently in games. As a bat-first prospect without supplemental tools, pressure will fall on his hit tool, which has been inconsistent so far. While he's never had trouble producing against any level of competition, there has always been some lingering swing and miss in his game and scouts will want to see him drop his strikeout rate preferably below 20% in 2022. Rushing is a below average athlete who will be limited to first base or left field in pro ball, so continued strikeout concerns would make some teams very wary of betting on his bat. The good news is he actually showed less swing and miss on the Cape than he did in the ACC, so he has every chance to carry that progress over to his junior season and show a bat everyone can fall in love with. There is some Zach DeLoach in this profile as a left handed hitting, bat-first prospect that didn't produce much as an underclassman before breaking out on the Cape. At best, Rushing could hit 20+ home runs per season with solid on-base percentages, so he could hit his way into the second round very easily.

9. OF Chris Newell, Virginia.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 200 lbs. Born 4/23/2001. Hometown: Newtown Square, PA.
2021: 5 HR, .258/.336/.397, 13 SB, 75/17 K/BB in 58 games.
This profile reminds me a bit of Jeren Kendall from his Vanderbilt days, except that Chris Newell is five inches taller. Newell was an ultra talented prep coming out of the suburban Philadelphia high school ranks in 2019, where he could have cracked the top couple of rounds, but made it to campus at Virginia and promptly hit .407/.545/.729 in his abbreviated 18 game freshman season. However, after setting that extremely high bar for himself, his sophomore season was a bit more uneven and it took eight hits (including two home runs) in his final fourteen at bats to bump his final line up to .258/.336/.397. After riding that little hot stretch to salvage the season, he took that momentum into the Cape Cod League where he slashed a very respectable .256/.307/.488 with five home runs in 21 games. Newell, like Dylan Brewer above him on this list, is one of the toolsiest players in the conference, if with perhaps a bit more athleticism and a bit less power. He does show above average power from the left side, a product of the twitchy strength in his 6'3" frame and a healthy uppercut hack, and he tapped that power with wood bats on the Cape. He's a very aggressive hitter, leading to a below average hit tool and an extremely streaky bat, so that will be very important to monitor in 2022. Newell's steep swing compounds those hit tool questions as well, and he struck out in a third of his plate appearances last spring and 28% on the Cape. When he's seeing the ball well, he looks like he could fit very close to the top of the draft and at his best ranks within the top tier of prospects in this conference, but he goes through prolonged stretches where he really struggles to make an impact at the plate. He offsets those slumps a bit by providing value on defense, with plus speed and a strong arm making him an asset in center field and far and away the best defender on this list. There's more variation in this profile than most, with an easy shot at hitting himself into the first round but perhaps an equal chance he finds himself in the third or fourth round after another spring with 25%+ strikeout rates.

10. LHP Michael Prosecky, Louisville.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 200 lbs. Born 2/28/2001. Hometown: Westchester, IL.
2021: 0-0, 8.31 ERA, 2.65 WHIP, 10/7 K/BB in 8.2 innings.
Like Chris Newell, Michael Prosecky came to campus as one of the highest rated recruits in the country. However, he's managed just 26.2 innings so far in two years at Louisville and has been wholly unremarkable, especially this spring when he allowed nearly two hits and a walk per inning. However, it looks like he found something on the Cape, where he posted a 1.61 ERA and a 30/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.1 innings in a long relief role, and he's carried that momentum into fall practice with reports that he's looking much better than his first two seasons. His fastball sits in the low 90's but reportedly touched 97 this fall, and he backs that up with a full arsenal. Prosecky's curveball stands out as his best secondary, an above average pitch that has gotten much more consistent, while he adds a slider and changeup that both flash above average as well. Throughout his time at Louisville, the 6'3" lefty has fluctuated between struggling to find the strike zone and getting hit hard when his pitches catch to much plate, but he has an easy, repeatable delivery that has his command trending in the right direction. It's still probably fringe average until we see him prove it more in ACC play, but it's at least a half grade better than it was a year ago and he has a chance for above average command down the line. The Chicago-area product has a lot to prove in 2022, having never completed four innings either at Louisville or on the Cape in 2021, which is why he ranks so low on this list, but that could change quickly.

Honorable mentions (with 2021 stats):
3B Luke Gold (Boston College): 9 HR, .316/.364/.576, 2 SB, 31/13 K/BB in 44 games.
LHP Nate Savino (Virginia): 3-3, 3.79 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 34/16 K/BB in 54.2 innings.
RHP Zach Maxwell (Georgia Tech): 2-2, 3.09 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 56/41 K/BB in 32 innings.
This list is only supposed to be ten, but three players are really close in my opinion and find themselves in the same tier as Dalton Rushing, Chris Newell, and Michael Prosecky. Luke Gold flew under the radar a bit behind big 2021 bats Sal Frelick and Cody Morissette at Boston College last year, but it's his turn to continue what's shaping up to be a surprising draft dynasty in Chestnut Hill. He lacks big tools, but is simply a professional hitter that gets the job done at the plate and showed some interesting power with six home runs on the Cape (while slashing .267/.363/.523). Gold has a simple, direct right handed swing which combines with that strength to provide consistent, usual game power even if he's not battering the parking lot in batting practice, and strong feel for the barrel gets him on base very consistently. He doesn't walk much because he makes consistent contact early in the count. Defensively, he looks like a fringy second or third baseman, with first base a possibility. Nate Savino is one of the more well-known names in the conference after reclassifying out of the 2020 draft to enroll early at Virginia, though like many other Virginia pitchers lately, his progress has stalled in Charlottesville. While he's been very effective for a teenager and his fastball has hit 95, it can also sit around 90 at times. He throws an above average slider and a fringe average changeup, but together, he just hasn't missed many bats. Savino has average command, but given his extreme youth (he won't even turn 20 until January), there's a very good chance he ends up above average in that regard. The 6'3" lefty might have been a first round pick in 2020 if he hadn't reclassified, so he'll look to recapture that pedigree this spring as one of the youngest four year college players available. Lastly, Zach Maxwell has the best pure stuff in the conference, but he has also walked 57 batters in 46.1 innings at Georgia Tech so far. Maxwell is a huge 6'6", 280 pound righty with a mid 90's fastball that has touched triple digits, adding a vicious slider with spin rates near 3000 that looks like a plus-plus pitch when he locates it. At this point, he has very poor command with a jerky delivery and a lack of coordination in his massive frame, so at bats can be very uncomfortable. Barring a transformation in 2022 and having never thrown more than three innings in an appearance at Georgia Tech, it's unlikely the Atlanta-area product ever becomes a starter in pro ball, but if he can improve his command to even a 40 grade, he has closer upside. There are some shades of pre-2020 Bobby Miller here, but Maxwell has an even more extreme profile with more size and less command.