The top 12 unsigned high school hitting prospects from the 2023 draft

We recently took a look at the top twelve pitching prospects to reach campus, so now we'll pivot to the position players. This group is led by Roch Cholowsky, the best unsigned prospect in the entire draft at any position or level not only of the 2023 draft, but of the last two drafts. He leads a trio of UCLA-bound bats, making the Bruins the only program to place more than one name on this list. That helps the dying Pac-12 lead the way with five players overall, ahead of the SEC (4), ACC (2), and Big 12 (1). Unlike with the pitchers, we couldn't sneak any mid majors onto this list, with eleven of the twelve players heading to traditional powerhouses save for Kevin Takeuchi and his Southern California commitment. Six top one hundred overall prospects grace this list overall, with profiles spread everywhere from outlier athletes to teenagers with grown man strength to long term performers on the showcase circuit.

Note, the ranking in parentheses denotes their ranking on my 2023 draft board.

1. (#34) SS Roch Cholowsky, UCLA.
Not only will UCLA bring in the #5 incoming pitching prospect and lead all schools with three names on this list, but they also get the top overall prospect in Roch Cholowsky. To me, Cholowsky is a really special player. A premium athlete to say the least, he is also a standout quarterback that generated rumblings that he could suit up for the UCLA football team as well, but that did not end up being the case and he'll stick with baseball. The athleticism immediately stands out on defense, where he effortlessly glides around the infield with loose, natural movements. He's plenty comfortable throwing off balance and from different angles, and with an above average arm, he's a plus defender overall that will stick at shortstop. While the bat isn't the calling card yet, it's coming along and I believe he'll eventually be an impact player. He naturally drops the barrel to the ball and makes plenty of contact against advanced pitching, and while his approach is fairly aggressive, it's still under control. He's currently hit over power, as his wiry 6'2" frame still has room to add more strength. Still, his loose right handed swing looks conducive to adding power as he fills out and learns to incorporate his lower half a bit better, and I think he could eventually be an above average hitter with average power. Throw in plus speed, and that's a really attractive all around profile. The Phoenix-area native also shows nice all-around polish as the son of Reds scout Dan Cholowsky, further adding to my optimism that he's going to continue trending up at UCLA. I'm buying into the athleticism and trajectory here and while he'll have to battle with fellow incoming blue chip prospect Roman Martin for the shortstop role, I think he'll quickly take over an every day role somewhere on the infield in Westwood.

2. (#56) 3B Trent Caraway, Oregon State.
Oregon State has quietly gotten very good at pulling recruits through to campus. A year after bringing in 2022's #69 overall prospect Gavin Turley, they'll pair him with another huge bat in 2023's #56 overall prospect Trent Caraway. Caraway brings the kind of profile that should find its way into an every day role almost immediately, and in fact if I had my pick of every true freshman in the country for just their freshman season only, he's probably the one I'd want. He's a big, strong, physically developed kid at 6'2", 205 pounds, and that's not entirely surprising given that he's a full year older than the typical incoming freshman, set to turn 20 in March. He channels that strength into easy power, just flicking his wrists and sending the baseball impressive distances to all fields. While there are some moving parts in his swing that can get him a little tied up with higher velocity, he's a disciplined hitter that attacks the right pitches and has an excellent track record of performance, especially this spring in the competitive Southern California high school ranks. It's a pretty complete profile at the plate between the power and his track record of getting to it in games, part of the reason he'll likely be a fixture in the Oregon State lineup from day one. With heavier feet and average speed, his future is likely at third base, where he has plenty of arm to profile. Caraway will be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2025, where he'll be older than many of the juniors in his draft class, so it may be a short stay in Corvallis.

3. (#75) OF Will Gasparino, Texas.
Roch Cholowsky isn't the only son of a scout that will hit campus with a lot of fanfare. Billy Gasparino is the scouting director for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and his son Will will give Texas a shot in the arm as it already brings back the top two unsigned college players from last year's draft. The next in a long line of talent that has come through the Harvard-Westlake School in Hollywood Hills, including such names as Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Max Fried, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Drew Bowser, Gasparino has extremely loud tools that will immediately stand out in Austin. Standing a lanky 6'6", he uses his long arms to generate huge bat speed and tremendous torque from his big right handed swing, leading to plus raw power already. With plenty more room to add additional strength, we could be talking about double plus power in time. At this point, the power plays down a little in games because he's a very streaky hitter whose long swing can cause swing and miss, though he can get hot and run into more than his fair share of barrels even against quality pitching. He's entering into a very strong player development program at Texas, which should be able to put the pieces together into a big time impact bat. Gasparino has clocked plus run times as well, giving him a shot to compete for the center field spot vacated by Eric Kennedy (Royals, undrafted). With right fielder Dylan Campbell (Dodgers, fourth round) also gone, his arm will put him in contention for that role as well. Between the size, power, and speed, the raw tools here are huge. If the Longhorn coaching staff can help him get more consistent and grow into his lanky frame, he has a chance to do special things in Austin.

4. (#86) OF Caden Sorrell, Texas A&M.
Heading about ninety miles east, Texas A&M is also bringing in one of the best bats in the freshman class and getting him from in state to boot. Caden Sorrell was one of the top performers in the state of Texas this past spring, showcasing an all-around elevated game up at Flower Mound Marcus High School in the DFW Metroplex. He's very physical at 6'3", 195 pounds, with more room to tack on additional strength. He uses a compact left handed swing to produce above average power to all fields, power which he tapped consistently in games as a high school senior. The swing can get a little more line drive oriented, but he moves well in the box and should continue to leave the yard in games in College Station. Because Sorrell is a bit of a late rising prospect, he does not have a long track record of performance against higher end pitching including in the summer of 2022 before his senior season. That leaves mostly his body of work as a high school senior as the positive argument for his hit tool, and DFW pitching is not too shabby at all. He has a chance to be a real impact bat in the middle of the Aggie lineup, but it might take a minute for him to break through. The Texas A&M outfield lost a couple seniors to graduation, but they're also bringing in two of the best outfield transfers in the country in Braden Montgomery (Stanford) and Hayden Schott (Columbia) to replace them, so at bats may be hard to come by in the early going. Working in Sorrell's favor are his plus speed and arm, which will enable him to slot in anywhere in the Aggie outfield and provide positive value there. Even if he doesn't play immediately, once he forces his way into that lineup, he'll be a huge addition that will contribute in many different facets.

5. (#92) SS Dylan Cupp, Mississippi State.
Unlike Caden Sorrell, Dylan Cupp comes to Mississippi State with an extremely long track record of performance on the national stage. He hasn't always set the world on fire, and his senior season more "met" expectations than exceeded them, but either way he'll be able to jump right in against SEC pitching and feel as comfortable as you can expect for a true freshman. Cupp stands out first for his defense. His hands and feet are lightning quick in the dirt, showing exceptional body control and hand-eye coordination to act as a vacuum over there at shortstop. His above average arm will keep him at that position at Mississippi State, and he has a chance to be one of the better defenders in the SEC over the next few seasons. While he's no slouch at the plate, the tools aren't as loud there. His quick hands play up in the box, enabling him to whip the barrel through the zone and create more power than you'd expect from his skinny 6'2" frame. Cupp has strong feel for the barrel and will be able to find it early and often at Mississippi State, though there are times when he can get too steep and miss underneath, leading to some minor strikeout concerns. If he fills out his frame a bit more, he has a chance to be a very solid hitter, which when combined with his glove, will make him a very interesting prospect. If not, the Northwest Georgia native still has plenty enough glove to profile near the bottom of the Bulldog order.

6. (#94) OF/WR Grant Gray, UCLA.
I mentioned that Roch Cholowsky was rumored as a potential QB at UCLA, but he may not even be the best football player in the baseball team's incoming freshman class. Grant Gray, as it turns out, earned a roster spot as a wide receiver for the Bruins, though he hasn't gotten into a game yet. Of course, baseball scouts have long known Gray for his athleticism and ultra projectable 6'3" frame, but it was his senior year of baseball that really made them sit up and consider him a potential future impact player. His long, strong arms and legs help him create a ton of leverage in his right handed swing, so as he gets into that UCLA player development pipeline he has a real chance to create above average or even plus raw power in time. Like Caden Sorrell, he's unproven against higher level pitching in this case because he's been busy playing football, but he showed very well against strong Southern California high school pitching this past spring and looks up to the task of handling Pac-12 then Big Ten pitching. His football commitments may continue to slow down his baseball development, and his rawness does show in games. That translates over to defense, where he'll have to move off the infield upon getting into baseball season and develop as an outfielder. As a Power Five wide receiver, his elite speed will give him every shot to stick in center field, helping give the Bruins more reason to get him into the lineup. It's hard to find this combination of power, speed, and athleticism, giving him massive upside if UCLA can develop his swing and sand down the rough edges in his profile. Gray is extremely old for an incoming freshman having turned 19 back in May, so he'll be draft-eligible again as a sophomore in 2025 and still may be fairly raw at that point. It may not be until he gives up football that the Norco native fully takes the step forward he's looking for.

7. (#103) C Zion Rose, Louisville.
Zion Rose has a chance to build on what's turning into a real catching pipeline at Louisville, which has recently produced All Star Will Smith, 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis, and 2022 second rounder Dalton Rushing. While he has a ways to go in terms of his development, he absolutely has the upside to join that list. Rose carries as explosive a bat as you're going to find, producing tremendous bat speed from a grown man's 6'1", 210 pound frame. While he doesn't tap it often in games yet, there is potential plus-plus raw power in there given his strength and bat speed. At this point, the swing is disjointed as he gets his foot down early before flinging the barrel through the zone, often pulling off or getting too steep with a stiff overall operation. At Louisville, he'll look to smooth that out and find a more natural rhythm in the box, hopefully helping him create a more adjustable barrel and make more consistent, flush contact. The Chicago native does take strong at bats and can handle advanced pitching, and with that bat speed, he can do plenty of damage today even when he doesn't square the ball up. Unlike most catchers, Rose has flashed plus run times and shows tremendous athleticism behind the plate. Similar to his hitting, the physical tools are ahead of the polish defensively. While he doesn't have the cleanest exchange and release, his cannon arm makes up for a bit of a double clutch and helps him gun runners down. Many evaluators think he could move to center field in the long run, where his speed and arm will play great, but by going to college, he'll have a chance to refine his blocking and receiving to potentially prove he could stick back there. There are some similarities to Henry Davis in this profile, though Davis had a bit more of a balanced offensive profile and of course built up an elite track record of performance.

8. (#105) SS Roman Martin, UCLA.
Roman Martin continues an elite recruiting class for UCLA, though unlike Roch Cholowsky and Grant Gray, he has not been in contact with head football coach Chip Kelly as far as I know. While he's just focused on baseball, he does bring an elite track record of performance as long as any name on this list. It's interesting to contrast him to Cholowsky especially since they play the same position and will both battle to first push Cody Schrier off of shortstop, or once he gets drafted highly in 2024, take over. Cholowsky is a much better athlete with higher upside on both sides of the ball, while Martin is more of a steady eddy that has gotten the job done day in and day out. He has a quick right handed swing with strong pitch recognition ability and a long track record of sending line drives out to all fields against quality competition. The power is fringy for now, but at 6'2", he has a chance to grow into average pop as he fills out his skinny frame. He should take well to Pac-12 pitching immediately in the conference's swan song this coming spring. Meanwhile, he's a sure handed defender at shortstop whose instincts and natural grace at the position help him play above his average speed, giving him every opportunity to beat out the more athletic Cholowsky for the shortstop position should both of their bats qualify. I'm certainly higher on Cholowsky (as is most of the industry) in the long run due to his upside but in the immediate future in Westwood, it will be fun to see the two of them battle it out and potentially make up one of the best double play combos in college baseball.

9. (#128) IF Kevin Takeuchi, Southern California.
In 2021, Southern Cal landed the top overall recruit in the country, Marcelo Mayer, but he went fourth overall to the Red Sox and of course wasn't going to turn that down. Two years later, they managed to pull another highly touted infielder from the San Diego area through to campus, and even if he's not quite the prospect Mayer was, Kevin Takeuchi has a chance to leave his mark in Los Angeles. He's undersized at 5'10", but came out looking more physical this past spring and put together a huge senior season to match, elevating his profile. He has a quick right handed swing geared for hard line drives and shows more power than you'd expect from his smaller frame, with the ability to turn on the ball for above average power to his pull side. With a strong eye at the plate, he's able to unleash that powerful swing more often by choosing good pitches he can do damage on. It's a pretty well-rounded offensive profile even if he lacks the upside or track record of some other names on this list. The defensive tools are average, with enough arm to make third base work and enough range to make it work at second base, at least at the collegiate level. The overall profile is a bit reminiscent of Tommy Troy, another highly touted prep infielder from California who hit .338/.411/.603 with 34 home runs over a three year career at Stanford en route to being drafted twelfth overall in 2023 by the Diamondbacks (though I'd note that Takeuchi is a more disciplined hitter at this stage of his career).

10. (#130) SS Braden Holcomb, Vanderbilt.
Braden Holcomb may not break into the Vanderbilt starting lineup immediately, especially considering they return three quarters of last year's starting infield and are bringing in two impact infield transfers to boot, but he has a chance to become a real impact player once he does earn playing time. Holcomb immediately stands out among his peers with a physically developed 6'4", 220 pound frame that looks like it could have him playing in the big leagues today. He takes big swings from the right side and his strength helps him tap plus power in games playing to all fields. To this point, he has been inconsistent at the plate and has struggled at times against higher quality pitching, but he did look better this spring against good pitching in the Orlando area. He may not immediately be up for the challenge of hitting SEC pitching every day, but like I mentioned, it's already a crowded infield situation in Nashville and he'll have time to iron things out. A shortstop in high school, he likely won't stick at that position for Vanderbilt and certainly won't in pro ball, with heavy feet and a big frame that will push him to third base, where his plus arm will play. Holcomb has a chance to hit in the middle of the Vanderbilt lineup and provide some of the best power they've seen in recent years.

11. (#146) C Ryder Helfrick, Arkansas.
Arkansas did not get much offense from the catcher's position last year, but they'll go into 2024 set up much better. Not only did Hudson White transfer in from Texas Tech with his .296/.397/.550 line from a year ago, but the Razorbacks are also bringing in the #2 freshman catching prospect in the country behind Louisville's Zion Rose. Like Rose, Ryder Helfrick is a bit raw at this point but he also brings big time upside. He has extremely quick hands in the box, translating to great bat speed and above average power from the right side. His quick hands help him catch up to velocity with ease, which should ease his transition to the SEC, though he's still learning to recognize offspeed. The Northern California native can also get passive at the plate at times and lose control of his at bats, something he'll need to tighten up in Fayetteville. With his electric hands and compact strength, Helfrick has the tools to be an impact bat for the Razorbacks. The profile is similar behind the plate, as his athleticism and above average arm give him considerable upside on that side of the ball as well. He does need refinement in that regard and could see time in the outfield while he develops his receiving and blocking skills. Interestingly, he won't be the only blue chip prospect heading to Arkansas from Northern California, joining Gabe Gaeckle, the #15 pitching prospect nationally on his way to campus.

12. (#158) OF Drew Burress, Georgia Tech.
Drew Burress rounds out this list, and he does so as another powderkeg athlete with considerable raw tools. The shortest player on this list at 5'9", he doesn't let that stop him from putting on a show in games. He takes big, uppercut hacks from the right side, with his natural athleticism helping him translate that rotational force into big time bat speed and leverage. The exit velocities are much higher than you'd expect from a kid that size, and with his ability to elevate with authority, he could tap above average power in games in the ACC. With that power-conscious approach does come swing and miss, especially against offspeed stuff to the point where I'm a bit concerned about his initial transition to ACC pitching. He has performed well against premium velocity throughout his prep career despite the big swing, so it's an accurate barrel when you consider how hard he swings. In Atlanta, he may look to find more of a balanced approach, though at Georgia Tech they do like guys who can blast the ball. Beyond the power, he's an above average runner with a plus arm that will fit well into the Yellow Jacket outfield, with the chance to take over for Jake DeLeo in center field if he hits enough to start at the outset. Regardless, he'll likely develop into an all-around impact player in Atlanta.

Honorable Mentions
#165 UT Gavin Grahovac, Texas A&M
#170 2B Camden Kozeal, Vanderbilt
#171 OF/WR Duce Robinson, Southern California
#175 OF Easton Breyfogle, Arizona
#182 C Campbell Smithwick, Mississippi

2023 MLB Draft: Ten options for the Nationals at second overall

Had draft order rules not changed with the most recent CBA, the Nationals would be picking first overall for the first time since their back to back picks in 2009 and 2010, which netted the team future franchise cornerstones Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. The CBA created a draft lottery that no longer guaranteed the Nationals the first overall pick, but all told, they should be very happy to come away with the second overall pick.

Mike Rizzo and the Nationals have drafted incredibly poorly over the past decade or so, not only whiffing on almost every single first round pick but also failing to find value later in the draft, which in reality matters even more than that first pick. The team has not drafted and developed an impact player since Anthony Rendon in 2011 – not in the first round, not in the second round, and not in the twentieth round. That is the result of a player development system that has fallen far, far behind most of the rest of the league, relying on traditional development methods rather than embracing new technology and trends in the game. Fortunately, however, the tide appears to be turning. While I wasn't thrilled with the 2021 and 2022 drafts as a whole, I was thrilled with the Brady House and Elijah Green picks as first rounders. And while it remains to be seen how much use the organization gets out of the slew of new hires in the analytics and player development realms, the hiring spree represents a very positive sign in its own right.

That hiring spree might make it hard to peg just what kind of players the Nationals are looking to target in this draft, but in terms of that first pick, things get a little easier to prognosticate. There are only so many names in play at the very top no matter a team's drafting style, and they'll probably have their eye on the top half dozen or so prospects once the day rolls around. 

For now, though, we have a whole season to play and the names will not be the same in July, so we can have a little bit of fun with this list. Common knowledge would recognize that the Nationals are far deeper in young outfielders than they are in any other demographic, which would seemingly rule out names like Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Max Clark, and Walker Jenkins at the top, but there is a very important extra bit of context to bring home; you don't draft for need. If the best player available is an outfielder, it doesn't matter that the Nationals already have Elijah Green, James Wood, and Cristhian Vaquero, among others, in the system – you draft the outfielder anyways. That also means there is no need to jump at a pitcher with this pick despite the absolute dearth of arm talent in the system, unless they determine that a pitcher is the best remaining player. Again, it doesn't matter that the Nationals have a bunch of outfielders and no pitching. If they see an outfielder as the best player available, take him and not the pitcher. With that, here are ten possibilities for the second overall pick, ranging from right-now favorites to a few wild cards that may not be in play just yet at the top of the draft but could get there with a strong spring. Remember, 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday was not in the first round conversation at all at this time a year ago.

Number in parentheses after school name denotes current rank on my draft board.

1. RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee (#3)
At this point, all signs point to Chase Dollander as the favorite for the second overall pick. I just hammered home the point that you do not draft for need, but the truth is the Nationals really, really need pitching and Dollander may very well be the best player available on draft day. In fact, many scouts have called him the best college pitcher they've seen in years, right up there alongside names like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and David Price. The Mike Rizzo we know and love would be beyond thrilled to get the Augusta, Georgia-area native into the system, so he's as good a name as any for Nationals fans to follow this spring. It's as complete a profile as you're going to find at the college level, setting up from a very athletic, projectable 6'3" frame. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has been creeping closer and closer to triple digits, adding explosive riding life from a release point that gets great extension. In a vacuum, it's one of the best fastballs in college baseball, but there is much more to the profile. Dollander also rips off a nasty slider with short, powerful sweeping action that is distinctly different from his downer curveball, while his changeup gives him a fourth average or better pitch. All of this comes from a clean, athletic delivery that helps him effectively locate his entire arsenal to both sides of the plate, ensuring every pitch is competitive and giving plenty of confidence his stuff will continue to play up in pro ball. He enters the spring as the near-consensus best pitcher in the country, and if he can stay healthy while repeating his exceptional 2022 (2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 108/13 K/BB) in the always tough SEC, it's hard to imagine Mike Rizzo passing up the chance at a future ace. Once drafted, he could move very quickly and give a much needed boost to a young Nationals pitching core currently led by Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, Cole Henry, and a bit further down, Jarlin Susana.

2. OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State (#1)

Chase Dollander may be the frontrunner for the Nationals at pick number two, but Dylan Crews is probably the better prospect at this point and sits comfortably in the top spot on my draft board. If the Pirates don't take him first overall, I would hope Rizzo and co. would pull the trigger here unless his bonus demands are outrageous. He's the kind of bat that can transform a lineup, and throwing him into that outfield mix with Green, Wood, Vaquero, Robert Hassell, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Brenner Cox might give Washington the best group of young outfielders in baseball. Crews was considered a first round talent early in the 2020 draft cycle but an up and down summer leading up to his senior year of high school dropped him closer to second round consideration. He wound up at Louisiana State and has done nothing but hit since day one, slashing .356/.458/.677 with 40 home runs over 125 games while playing a very tough SEC schedule. The power potential here is simply different. He consistently produces some of the highest exit velocities in college baseball, punishing baseballs to all fields that never seem to come down. He can take you deep to in any direction on any day of the week, profiling for 30+ home runs annually at the big league level. Crews isn't just a slugger, though – he's a very patient hitter at the plate that takes professional at bats and consistently works counts into his favor. When he does get a pitch he can do damage on, he rarely misses it, and his career 16.8% strikeout rate is very impressive as an underclassman power hitter in the SEC. He may be a little bit power over hit at this point, but it's not by much. Additionally, he started all 62 games for LSU in center field last season, bringing above average speed and a plus arm that makes him a net positive out there as well. Teams love up the middle talent early in the draft, and at least for now, Crews fits that profile. However, with numerous prospects that could fit in center field long term, he would probably profile as a right fielder in the Nationals' system and could become at least an above average defender there. He would likely move quickly and could potentially beat every outfield name I mentioned earlier to the majors.

3. SS Jacob Gonzalez, Mississippi (#4)
Dylan Crews and Chase Dollander are the top two prospects in the draft for now, but Jacob Gonzalez is the top infielder in the country and could easily hit his way into this spot just by continuing the pace he's set over his first two seasons at Ole Miss (30 HR, .315/.424/.560). The Nationals are not developing talent well at all right now, and by drafting Gonzalez, they would get one of the most big league-ready players in the class that doesn't need much development. He has impeccable feel for the strike zone, walking four more times than he struck out as a true freshman before bumping that number to eighteen as a sophomore. He is completely comfortable with premium SEC pitching and should seamlessly transition to pro pitching, perhaps enough to start off with AA Harrisburg in 2024. Gonzalez also packs plenty of strength into his 6'2" frame and channels it very well in his left handed swing, showing easy plus raw power to the pull side. He's mostly a pull hitter to this point, but his pitch recognition skills enable him to be successful with that approach even when being pitched on the outer half. It might take some tweaking in pro ball as pitchers are able to better execute to the outside corners and change speeds more effectively, but I really don't imagine he'll have any trouble at all adjusting. Unlike Crews, Gonzalez would give the Nationals an infield bat to join a pretty thin group at that position group in the system. A shortstop for now, he probably fits better at third base going forward due to below average foot speed, but he's plenty athletic enough to stick there. Gonzalez' batting average and on-base percentage dropped from .355/.443 as a freshman to .273/.405 as a sophomore as pitchers stopped pitching to him, but if he adjusts back like he is capable of, he would make a lot of sense at #2.

4. OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [IN] (#2)
Could the Nationals make it three years in a row taking a prep bat? Prep bats are my favorite demographic, and the team made me very happy drafting Brady House and Elijah Green the past two seasons. If they go that route again in 2023, Max Clark is in my opinion the clear top prep player on the market with a tremendous combination of physical projection, present feel for the game, and work ethic. More so than any high school hitter in the country, I feel confident Clark is going to grow into his game naturally and become a true five tool player down the line. For now, he's hit over power with a line drive, gap to gap approach that has him hitting for high averages against elite prep pitching. He recognizes spin and can get the barrel to the ball all over the zone, utilizing a simple operation in the box rather than selling out for power and trying to do too much. That said, the power will come. He has a very well proportioned 6'1" frame with plenty of room to add strength, and he has been hitting the weight room hard to help build that strength. As he fills out physically, the power will come naturally without him having to change his approach at the plate, which should enable him to continue to hit for high averages while still putting up high home run totals. Beyond his bat, Clark is an elite defender in center field with plus-plus arm strength and plus-plus speed, making for the highest upside in the class. In some ways, he'd be a perfect complement to Green, who also shows that double plus speed and arm strength, with the right handed hitting Green a power-over-hit bat that is looking to even things out and the left handed hitting Clark a hit-over-power bat looking to tack on strength. If the draft were today, I would be thrilled with any of Crews, Dollander, or Clark in this spot no matter what the bonus demands were.

5. RHP/DH Paul Skenes, Louisiana State (#12)

As I've mentioned, the Nationals' system is almost completely barren of pitching talent and they could really use an impact arm to give the system a boost. At this point, I much prefer Chase Dollander (and Hurston Waldrep for that matter), but Paul Skenes has generated buzz near the top of the draft and does feel like a guy Mike Rizzo could target if he takes well to the SEC.  He dominated the very hitter-friendly Mountain West Conference while at Air Force to the tune of a 2.73 ERA and a 96/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.2 innings last year, and this year he joins LSU in hopes of proving his chops against the best hitters in the country. The stuff is trending up and up and up, and he looked even better this fall when he ran his fastball up to 99 and flashed plus with both his slider and his changeup. Big and durable at 6'6" and 235 pounds, he pounds the strike zone and creates difficult angle with his size. In the spring, he'll need to show that his improving stuff can miss bats in the SEC after running a more-good-than-great 27.0% strikeout rate at Air Force last year, when his fastball was a few ticks slower and his slider played closer to average. That version of Paul Skenes would probably fit closer to the back of the first round, but showing that mid 90's velocity and plus offspeed stuff over a full spring season would make him a top ten prospect. Of course, he comes with that service academy work ethic that only adds to the profile.

6. RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest (#13)
Rhett Lowder probably fits closer to the middle of the first round at this point and my ranking reflects that, but he's the kind of pitcher that could play his way to an under slot deal with the Nationals if he builds his stock a little this spring. Again, there isn't much pitching talent in the system right now, and Lowder's advanced all around game would be a welcome site if he takes another step forward this spring. He's up to 97 with his fastball and and shows above average with his slider and changeup, giving him a nearly big league ready arsenal as it is. Lowder also commands everything very well for his age and could report straight to AA Harrisburg to start 2024, with advanced feel for pitching that is hard to find at his age, especially among pitchers with his kind of stuff. At this point, he lacks a true swing and miss offering and profiles more as a safe bet #3 starter than a true top of the rotation stalwart, so there is work to be done. If he wants to go second overall, he'll need to miss more bats this year and improve on last year's 25.1% strikeout rate either by adding some life to his fastball or some snap to his slider. I certainly believe that is possible, and if he can do that, he's the kind of pitcher Mike Rizzo would love to add into the system on a below slot deal.

7. RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida (#7)
Hurston Waldrep is a very different pitcher, but he does find himself in a similar position to Paul Skenes transferring into the SEC. He comes from Southern Miss, where he struck out 140 batters in 90 innings for a sky high 37.3% strikeout rate. There are some very strong lineups in Conference USA, but the jump to the SEC will certainly be a test for Waldrep and therefore an opportunity for him to boost his stock even further. With an uptempo delivery and a skinny build at 6'2", he doesn't look on the surface like the low risk, steady starting pitcher that you'd think Rizzo would target at the top of the draft (Dollander, Skenes, and Lowder fit that description better), but he is a little reminiscent of other top ten picks like Carson Fulmer and Jack Leiter. Everything with Waldrep is explosive. The fastball is easily in the mid 90's and approaches triple digits with big time riding action, while the rest of his arsenal is equally impressive. He shows a hard slider, a power curve, and a rapidly improving splitter that all flash at least above average if not plus, so it's hard not to see him continuing to miss SEC bats in bunches like he did in the C-USA. With average command, the SEC will be a test as more advanced hitters will make it a little tougher for him to control the strike zone. He walked 8.8% of his opponents last year, which isn't a huge number but is still the highest on this list above Dollander (4.2%), Lowder (6.2%), and Skenes (8.5%). If he can continue to elicit chases and avoid walks with Florida while maintaining his stuff and health, Rizzo may be interested in his services on a below-slot deal, especially if Dollander, Lowder, and Skenes don't seize their opportunity.

8. 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian (#9)

The last time the Nationals drafted, developed, and reaped the benefits from an impact player was 2011, when they took Anthony Rendon with the sixth overall pick out of Rice. Twelve years later, they may have an opportunity to make a similar pick from the Lone Star State in TCU's Brayden Taylor, though Taylor has the added benefit of batting left handed. While there's no matching the otherworldly numbers Rendon put up for the Owls from 2009-2011 (52 HR, .373/.505/.680 in 187 games), Taylor has been a one man wrecking crew in his own right for two years now (25 HR, .319/.450/.574 in 117 games) and still won't turn 21 until May. He fits what the Nationals like as an advanced, all-around bat that can do a little bit of everything. Taylor takes extremely professional at bats, as evidenced by drawing more walks than strikeouts in both his underclass seasons. He controls the strike zone, rarely chasing but consistently doing damage on the pitches he does choose to attack, helping him produce elite on-base percentages of .445 and .454 the last two seasons. He's definitely hit over power at this point, but he does show average power overall and can take you deep to the pull side when he turns on one. At this point, I don't think he's in play at the second overall pick, but he's not far off and his to do list is pretty simple. Fairly slender at 6'1", tacking on some strength and tapping more all-fields power in 2023 would certainly move him closer to the conversation, and given his youth and athleticism I could definitely see that happening. Taylor has also played almost exclusively third base during his time at TCU, but with Tommy Sacco gone to the Astros, he could get some looks at shortstop this year. He has shown well at the hot corner to this point and if he also takes well to shortstop, that would be another feather in his cap. Show both the added power and the aptitude at shortstop, and you have a strong candidate to go second overall to the Nationals.

9. 3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell HS [FL] (#16)
Usually, teams prefer up the middle talent at the top of the draft. Aidan Miller, the younger brother of Reds prospect Jackson Miller, may not quite fit that description, but if he can prove what he needs to prove in 2023, he could work his way as high as the Nationals' pick at #2. It's some of the best power in the prep class, coming naturally from a big league body at 6'2" that enables him to tap it consistently without selling out. Miller also takes big league at bats, with a disciplined approach that helps him stay in the zone and attack pitches he can do damage on, though like many power hitters, he can be prone to chasing fastballs up. There are some moving parts in the swing which hamper his pure hit tool, representing an opportunity where he can improve and potentially push his draft position up, which presently stands closer to the middle of the first round. Given that he'll already be 19 well before the draft, the Nationals will want to see that polished up a bit before rolling the dice at pick #2. More pressing, though, especially at the top of the draft, is his future position. A plus arm gives him a chance to stick at third base, but he's not a quick twitch guy and can't afford to slow down much more. If he can come out and continue to show good range at the hot corner this spring and help Rizzo and co. feel comfortable that he can avoid a move to first base, it would make them much more likely to pull the trigger this early in the draft, especially if his hit tool ticks up a little in addition. He wouldn't be the first player from J.W. Mitchell High School in the Tampa suburbs to star for the Nationals, as the school was also one of the many stops Tyler Clippard made as he bounced around from high school to high school as an amateur.

10. SS Roch Cholowsky, Hamilton HS [AZ] (#20)
We'll round it out with a wild card pick. In ranking Cholowsky 20th on my board, I'm actually significantly higher on him than Baseball America (#28), Prospects Live (#33), and MLB Pipeline (#35), and he still has a ways to go to get to #2. Still, eventual 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday was ranked outside the top 50 on many lists at this point a year ago, and I think Cholowsky has a chance to be that guy in 2023. The Phoenix-area product is a fantastic athlete that actually has a chance to play quarterback at UCLA in addition to baseball, and it's that physical upside that makes me think he could make the jump. He moves effortlessly on the diamond, showing above average range and arm strength that makes the shortstop position look easy, so he already has that up the middle defensive projection that teams prefer at the top of the draft. Of course, you're not drafting anything less than a future top/middle of the order bat at pick #2, and Cholowsky does have some work to do to get there. The good news is the foundation is there, so if he comes out in 2023 a little stronger and a little more polished, he could fly up boards. He already shows very natural bat to ball skills and for the most part combines that with good swing decisions, making for a potential above average hit tool in the future. His swing is also very fluid and with the physical upside I mentioned, any strength gains could get him to at least average power if not better, especially as he learns to make better use of his legs. So there are two things that need to happen for Cholowsky to make the leap: more polish, and more physicality. I think the physicality is more or less a given and could easily show up this spring, while the polish may come a little later given his two-sport nature but is also pretty strong as it is. I really like this kid and I would be thrilled to see him swing his way up to #2.

Other Top Ranked Candidates

OF Wyatt Lanford, Florida (#5)

OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS [NC] (#8)
SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonnor HS [PA] (#10)

OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt (#11)

SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon (#14)

Other Dark Horse Candidates

OF Travis Honeyman, Boston College (#6)

OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech (#18)
SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest HS [FL] (#21)
LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy [MA] (#22)
LHP Grayson Hitt, Alabama (#37)