Showing posts with label Drew Thorpe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Drew Thorpe. Show all posts

Sunday, July 31, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: New York Yankees

Full list of draftees

While some teams like to play with the bonus pool to go well above or below slot, the Yankees played this draft extremely straightforward by paying exact slot value for each of their first five picks, never going more than more than $233,500 above slot at any point, and never going more than $92,300 below slot. They're getting better and better at developing pitching, so in this draft they picked up fifteen college pitchers out of their twenty picks. In fact, all twenty of their selections this year came from the college ranks as they looked to pick up quick moving talent that can be up in the majors and contributing by 2024-2025. The Yankees like their guys big and physical, and that was certainly the case here with each of their first seven selections standing at least 6'2" and an average overall size of 6'3", 210 led by their first round selection Spencer Jones at 6'7". Lastly, the Yankees already have west coast flair on the team between Californians Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Aaron Hicks, and Kyle Higashioka, and this draft heavily featured the west coast as well from top to bottom including in each of the first five picks.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-25: OF Spencer Jones, Vanderbilt. My rank: #29.
Slot value: $2.88 million. Signing bonus: $2.88 million.
The Yankees started off their draft class with one of the more interesting profiles available. Spencer Jones was a highly touted two-way prospect who earned some first round interest out of high school in the San Diego area back in 2019, but he got hurt his senior year and opted to head east to Vanderbilt. Despite showing a low 90's fastball and an above average curveball from a projectable frame, he never got on the mound in Nashville after Tommy John surgery cost him a third consecutive season. Meanwhile, his bat has developed slowly but steadily and he's gotten better and better throughout his time in the program. He began to turn the corner with a strong (.309/.409/.457) run through the Cape Cod League last summer, then fully broke out by slashing .370/.460/.643 with 12 home runs and a 64/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games this spring. Standing a towering 6'7", he'll fit right into that Yankee lineup with fellow hard hitting skyscrapers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and he draws a lot of parallels to the former. Jones hits the ball extremely hard with some of the best high end exit velocities in the class, helping him tap power consistently in games despite more of a line drive, all fields approach. Speaking of his approach, he takes very good at bats despite not following the most straightforward development path. While he does strike out at a high clip, that's more due to his long limbs creating a longer bat path than due to chasing bad pitches. He's also a great athlete for his size, one that runs well enough with plenty enough arm strength to be an above average right fielder in time or even take a shot at center field. It's a package of tools you don't see often, so despite the swing and miss questions, the Yankees are getting huge upside in a guy who could hit in the middle of their lineup within a few years. At his ceiling, that could mean 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages if he manages his strikeouts.

2-61: RHP Drew Thorpe, Cal Poly. My rank: #93.
Slot value: $1.19 million. Signing bonus: $1.19 million.
I remember watching Drew Thorpe hold Vanderbilt to just two runs over seven innings in his very first college game back in 2020 (and ironically struck out Spencer Jones to close out his first inning), and since then he has quietly been one of the best pitchers on the west coast. He was at his best this spring, posting a 2.32 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 149/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings highlighted by a fifteen strikeout performance against UC San Diego in March. Thorpe sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to about 96 at his best, with some sneaky life on the pitch to boot. His best pitch by far is his changeup, a nasty offering with massive fading life. It's so good that he'll often pitch off of it rather than his fastball, something you rarely see at the amateur level. Previously, the southwestern Utah native struggled to spin a quality breaking ball, but his slider took a step forward this spring and now looks like an average pitch. Despite a delivery that can be a bit rushed at the end, Thorpe pounds the strike zone and rarely lets walks derail his outings. The Yankees will want to help continue improving his slider to give him a second out pitch, and his combination of stuff, command, and a sturdy 6'4" frame could help him move relatively quickly through the minors. While his stuff isn't quite explosive enough to warrant a potential top of the rotation projection, he's a good bet to become a mid-rotation guy in the near future.

3-100: RHP Trystan Vrieling, Gonzaga. My rank: #102.
Slot value: $611,400. Signing bonus: $611,400.
Gonzaga had a loaded pitching staff that featured Gabriel Hughes (now with the Rockies) and William Kepmner (Giants) as their two most famous names entering the season, but Vrieling made it a true three headed monster with a big junior season. He finished the year with a 4.91 ERA and a 107/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings, but he was much stronger early in the season (3.16 ERA, 79/25 K/BB through nine starts) before tiring later in the season (9.13 ERA, 28/21 K/BB over his final six starts). At his best, Vrieling features above average command of a very solid four pitch arsenal, looking like a potential #3 starter. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and tops out at 97 with steep plane and some riding life, while his curveball, slider, and changeup all flash above average. When he's going right, he can locate even the offspeed pitches well to both sides of the plate, making for a complete profile. However, his command deteriorated as he tired later in the season and he was hit hard, leaving him as a bit of an enigma. The 6'4" righty will need to build up his durability in the Yankees system and get more consistent with everything, and he's certainly in the right system to do so.

4-130: OF Anthony Hall, Oregon. My rank: #120.
Slot value: $456,500. Signing bonus: $456,500.
Anthony Hall is not a terribly dissimilar player to Spencer Jones, albeit with a half grade off the tools across the board. Also a San Diego-area product like Jones, he showed well in the Cape Cod League (.283/.382/.481, 4 HR) before breaking out this year at Oregon, where he slashed .333/.402/.640 with 14 home runs and a 43/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. Big and strong at 6'2", Hall can really put a charge into the ball with a leveraged, smooth left handed swing. He previously had trouble tapping that power in games as he didn't always swing at the best pitches, but he's progressively gotten more disciplined in the box and controls the strike zone much better now. That led to him increasing his isolated power (SLG minus AVG) from .184 last year to .307 this year while simultaneously dropping his strikeout rate from 21.7% to 16.6%. It's still a power over hit profile, but certainly a much more balanced one. Hall is a decent runner that can hold his own in a corner outfield spot, but he won't be a value add out there and it will be the bat that carries him up. At best, he profiles for 20-25 home runs a year with average on-base percentages, providing some nice upside for a guy whose floor is that of a platoon/bench bat with pop.

5-160: RHP Eric Reyzelman, Louisiana State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $340,700. Signing bonus: $340,700.
Eric Reyzelman has some of the loudest stuff in the Yankees draft class at his best. A San Francisco transfer, he pitched well on the Cape (2.93 ERA, 38/8 K/BB in 27.2 IP) before landing at LSU this spring, where he put up a 4.04 ERA and a 66/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings out of the bullpen. He loves to attack hitters with his fastball, which is easily his best pitch for now sitting in the mid 90's and touching 99 in short stints. It has a ton of riding and running life on it as well, making it very tough to square up. He has a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup all in his pocket, but he usually leaves them there and sticks with the old #1 as he's much more confident in that fastball. The slider stands out as perhaps his best secondary with good shape, though he does need to sharpen it up. The 6'2" righty is a very good athlete that moves well on the mound with an athletic delivery, and the arm strength is clearly already there. The Yankees' player development system will need to help him choose a couple secondaries to focus on and also get more consistent with his command, and if they can, he has a sneaky chance to start. If not, he can just lean on the slider and watch his fastball approach triple digits, which I'm sure the Yankees would not mind. The San Francisco Bay Area native is a really fun ball of clay and it will be interesting to see what he looks like in a few years.

6-190: RHP Chase Hampton, Texas Tech. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $264,000. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($233,500 above slot value).
The Yankees lone over slot bonus of the first ten rounds is Chase Hampton, a big righty out of Texas Tech. He was well known as a high school senior but went undrafted in the five round 2020 draft, so he headed across the state to Lubbock and has shown flashes of big potential. As a draft eligible sophomore this year, Hampton put up a 4.29 ERA and a 72/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings as the Red Raiders Sunday starter, finishing off the season with a twelve strikeout performance against Notre Dame at the Statesboro Regional. This seems like the kind of profile that could have gone back to school for his junior season and put it all together, which is why the Yankees bought in early with a large over slot bonus for a guy who went unranked on the MLB Pipeline top 250 and came in at #291 on the Baseball America 500 and #548 on Prospects Live. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but can touch the upper 90's early in his starts, showing nice riding action on the pitch. He mixes in a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which flash potential and give the Yankees a lot to work with. Big and strong at 6'2", 225 pounds, the East Texas product has calmed down his delivery a bit since his high school days in Kilgore and has a chance to start if the Yankees are patient and get it right. He still needs to get more consistent with his secondaries and command but he's very young and brings a lot to the table. The profile is actually fairly similar to Eric Reyzelman above him, except that Hampton is much more physical (35 pounds heavier at the same height) and trusts his secondaries more while Reyzelman is thinner and more athletic with a little extra hop to his fastball at the same velocities.

7-220: RHP Cam Schlittler, Northeastern. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $207,500. Signing bonus: $205,000 ($2,500 below slot value).
This is a big, strong pitcher that will be fun for the Yankees player development system to work with. Cam Schlittler had a nice season in the Northeastern rotation, where he out-pitched the more well known Sebastian Keane (also a Yankee draft pick) to the tune of a 3.53 ERA and an 85/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings. He's a huge guy listed at 6'6", and honestly he looks even taller standing up on that mound. The fastball sits in the low 90's but he can touch the mid to upper 90's when he reaches back, coming in with steep downhill plane albeit without much life. He shows great feel to spin the ball, with a sweepy slider flashing above average with great shape and a softer curveball looking average with more top to bottom movement. As with the two arms drafted before him, he does need to get more consistent with those secondaries and his command, but I think he'll get there. Schlittler is not a great athlete, relying more on his height than his lower body to get downhill towards the plate, though he does not throw with much effort and could start in pro ball. Perhaps toughest for some Yankees fans to get over will be the fact that he grew up in Walpole in the shadows of Gillette Stadium and less than twenty miles from Boston, so he's a New Englander through and through.

12-370: RHP Jackson Fristoe, Mississippi State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $272,500 ($147,500 against bonus pool).
Jackson Fristoe seemed like a good candidate to go back to school after a tough sophomore season, but the Yankees picked him up for a large day three bonus to see what they could make of him. After a solid freshman season at Mississippi State, Fristoe regressed in 2022 and posted a 7.71 ERA and a 48/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings for a Bulldogs team that fell far short of expectations. He has a premium body at 6'4" and moves very well on the mound, with a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch higher with life. He throws a sharp cutter/slider in the upper 80's that could be a true weapon if he gets more consistent with it, and also flashes a less used changeup that's effective when it's on. His command is presently below average and the Yankees will need to help streamline his long arms and legs into a more consistent delivery, but the pieces are certainly there to build on. It's a relief profile for now, but you never know. Though the western Kentucky native is eligible as a true sophomore, he's a full year older than his graduating class and already turned 21 in March.

14-430: RHP Kris Bow, Southern Nevada JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Kris Bow has been one of the more interesting JUCO arms on the west coast for a few years now, and he finally put it all together with a great 2022 season in which he posted a 2.16 ERA and a 64/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 innings for the College of Southern Nevada. He has a low to mid 90's fastball with some riding life from a low release point, as well as a full arsenal of secondaries led by an above average slider. He has a very sturdy 6'4" frame and should be durable, but hasn't started on a consistent basis at CSN and he'll have to prove his stuff can hold up over longer periods of time. Still, he has a combination of size, arm strength, secondaries, and command that is difficult to find on day three of the draft, so he could be lightning in a bottle for New York. He just finished his third year at Southern Nevada after previously committing to transfer to Arizona, so he'll turn 22 early in the offseason.

18-550: RHP Sebastian Keane, Northeastern. My rank: #220.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Sebastian Keane was one of the more famous recruits to ever reach campus at Northeastern, coming into Boston having spurned top five round interest out of his northern Massachusetts high school. He's been up and down for the Huskies, but unfortunately 2022 was more of a "down" and he finished with a 5.99 ERA and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings. Now he'll join rotation mate Cam Schlittler in the Yankees system, and they'll work to get him on track. Keane is a great athlete with a low 90's fastball that gets up to 96, while adding a slider that flashes plus at its best in addition to a less used curveball and changeup. The stuff can be extremely inconsistent, with his slider losing snap and his fastball sitting closer to 90 at times, and in 2022 he really struggled to miss bats. His 15.0% strikeout rate this year was by far the lowest on my list, a product of leaving too many pitches over the plate and that regression in his stuff. Still, he doesn't walk too many hitters and has shown flashes of dominance, such as in the Cape Cod League last summer, and has the athleticism and premium stuff at peak to become an impact arm. He's just really far away from that right now and trending in the wrong direction, which is why he's being drafted here in the eighteenth round and not thirteen to fourteen rounds higher like he was projected at his best. And one last piece of good news for Yankee fans – though he grew up in Massachusetts and went to college in Boston, Keane did grow up a Yankees fan, so he's not crossing rivalry lines here.

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

2022 MLB Draft: an early look at mid-majors (west)

2021 draftees: 76. Top schools: Dallas Baptist/San Diego State/Tulane (5).
2021 preseason writeup (published 1/22/2021)

Top draftees:
1-5, Orioles: OF Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State)
1-18, Cardinals: RHP Michael McGreevy (UC Santa Barbara)
2-67, Angels: LHP Ky Bush (Saint Mary's)
CBB-71, Padres: LHP Robert Gasser (Houston)
3-81, Mets: RHP Dominic Hamel (Dallas Baptist)
3-96, Braves: LHP Dylan Dodd (Southeast Missouri State)

Just like in the east, the western mid majors have a strong candidate to go first overall in Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee, rivaling James Madison's Chase DeLauter on the other side of the country. However, at this point it's really Lee running the show in the west with no other prospects looking like clear-cut first rounders, with the next group of prospects looking to go more in the second to third round range with questions surrounding power output for the hitters and ability to stick in the rotation for the pitchers. Below, we'll look at the top ten for the 2022 draft.

1. SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly.
Bat: B. Throw: R. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 2/14/2001. Hometown: San Luis Obispo, CA.
2021: 10 HR, .342/.384/.626, 3 SB, 34/18 K/BB in 55 games.
Brooks Lee, the son of Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee, was a very well-known prospect coming out of San Luis Obispo High School back in 2019 and had a chance to go in the the top two rounds had he been signable. Instead, he was the fourth best prospect to reach campus behind three SEC-bound stars in Vanderbilt's Jack Leiter, Florida's Hunter Barco, and LSU's Maurice Hampton. He barely got to play in 2020 when the COVID shutdown came down just as he was returning from hamstring surgery, but he set the league on fire with a huge sophomore season with a .342/.384/.626 line in 55 games. Seeing time with both the Collegiate National Team and in the Cape Cod League over the summer, he was exposed to some of the top amateur pitchers in the country and thrived to the tune of a .375/.405/.600 line with seven home runs in 32 games, leaving no doubt that the bat is for real. Lee employs an extremely aggressive approach at the plate, swinging at almost everything he considers hittable. For the vast majority of players, that kind of free swinging mentality would lead to high strikeout rates and ugly K/BB ratios (think Javier Baez), but it actually works extremely well in this case because his feel for the barrel is perhaps unparalleled in college baseball. It doesn't matter what he's up against, velocity, quality breaking stuff, in the zone, out of the zone, whatever, Lee is going to see it, hit it, and hit it hard. He's not just a slap hitter, either, with plus raw power that he taps in games, with wood bats, and against quality competition, coming from a sturdy 6'2" frame that should continue to add strength in pro ball. A switch hitter, he's been known for his choppy swing since high school, though despite its optics he's direct to the ball and can effectively catch pitches out in front to drive them to all fields. Lee plays shortstop for now and his instincts help him perform well at the position, but he's a fringy runner and his lack of range might push him to third base in the long run, where he'll still be a net-positive defensively. Headed into pro ball, he has a very complete profile that figures to hit 20-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages, though he'll have to cut back just a little bit on his tendency to expand the zone because he won't always be able to get away with chasing  like he does against college pitching. For now, he's in play right at the start of the draft and should be a lock for the first round if he even comes close to matching his strong 2021 season.

2. OF Jace Grady, Dallas Baptist.
Bat: B. Throw: R. 5'10", 185 lbs. Born 5/25/2001. Hometown: Elgin, TX.
2021: 4 HR, .337/.417/.534, 15 SB, 33/23 K/BB in 49 games.
Jace Grady did not reach campus at Dallas Baptist with nearly as much fanfare as Brooks Lee, but after hitting just .187/.295/.237 in the shortened 2020 season, he's been trending straight up. Grady was an integral piece of the Patriots' super regional team, hitting .337/.417/.534 with 15 stolen bases in 49 games, then he took it to another level by slashing .348/.383/.596 with six home runs in 22 games on the Cape. Previously regarded as a potential fourth outfielder who could spray line drives around the field, his power surge against elite competition over the summer added a whole new ceiling to the profile. He's a patient hitter that doesn't chase much, but he still rarely strikes out or walks because when he does get his pitch, he rarely misses it and makes consistent hard contact to all fields. "All fields" can at times be associated with a slap-heavy approach, but Grady is not afraid to turn on the ball and shows some solid pop to the pull side. The Austin-area native runs well enough to stick in center field, giving him a really nice all around profile. Evaluators will want to see him tap that power consistently throughout the 2022 season to feel comfortable popping him in the top fifty or so picks, but if he can continue to show enough juice to profile for perhaps 10-15 home runs a year to go along with his high on-base percentages, he could knock on the door of the first round. For now, he probably fits better in the second or early third, with the fact that he's relatively young for the class working in his favor.

3. SS Andrew Pintar, Brigham Young.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 3/23/2001. Hometown: Spanish Fork, UT.
2021: 9 HR, .333/.433/.556, 4 SB, 29/32 K/BB in 48 games.
Brigham Young has not had a player drafted in the top five rounds since 2013, when the Cubs took Jacob Hannemann in the third round, and 6th rounder Jackson Cluff (2019) marks the only Cougar to go in the top ten rounds since then. There is a good chance that changes in 2021 with Andrew Pintar and Cy Nielson looking to be two of the best prospects BYU has had in a long time, though Nielson has significant relief risk and Pintar is, for now, clearly the better prospect. Pintar hit .302/.381/.358 as a freshman then added power to his game in 2021 with a monster .333/.433/.556 line, ending the season especially hot with eleven multi-hit games over his final fourteen. He has some of the stronger plate discipline in the west and selects good pitches, leading to high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. He loves to get his arms extended and because of that has power to all fields, not just to the pull side, with impressive exit velocities to boot and a chance for above average power in pro ball. Together, that gives the Salt Lake City-area native the projection of 15-20 home runs a year with high on-base percentages at his peak, a very favorable offensive profile especially at shortstop. He'll likely stick there with strong feel for the position that makes up for his average physical tools, giving him an extremely well-rounded game. You won't find many plus tools in Pintar's arsenal, but he has a very strong chance to work his way up as a consistently solid regular who will help the team out in a lot of ways. For now, that's a second to third round projection, but teams love polished college hitters that can stick at shortstop and Pintar fits.

4. SS Jordan Sprinkle, UC Santa Barbara.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'10", 170 lbs. Born 3/6/2001. Hometown: Palm Springs, CA.
2021: 7 HR, .353/.402/.536, 26 SB, 39/14 K/BB in 58 games.
Jordan Sprinkle is a favorite among West Coast area scouts, coming off a huge sophomore season (.353/.402/.536) and following that up with a very respectable run with both the Collegiate National Team and in the Cape Cod League (combined .276/.348/.362 in 19 games). He makes a ton of contact from the right side, spraying line drives around the field and looking unfazed for the most part against elite pitching over the summer, though he did strike out in over 30% of his plate appearances after posting a 14.9% rate for UCSB. Sprinkle also shows some ambush power and runs into his fair share of home runs due to the high volume of hard hit balls he produces, though again, that power did not show up with wood bats over the summer as he ended with four extra base hits (no home runs) in those 19 games. At a skinny 5'10", he'll likely always be hit over power, and on the docket for 2022 will be drawing a few more walks and maintaining that 45 grade power projection. The Southern California native has a very favorable defensive outlook with plus speed that gives him great range at shortstop, with plenty of arm strength to help him not just stick there but thrive. The overall package reminds me a bit of Jose Torres, who went to the Reds in the third round last year out of NC State and had a very strong debut in the low minors (.333/.387/.590 in 28 games). The very strong glove will buy his bat plenty of time to adjust to pro pitching and if the power never comes along, his bat to ball skills will make him a valuable utility infielder at the least. I see him fitting in the third or fourth round for now with a chance to work his way up this spring.

5. RHP Troy Melton, San Diego State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 190 lbs. Born 12/3/2000. Hometown: Anaheim, CA.
2021: 4-5, 6.14 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 83/30 K/BB in 73.1 innings.
Troy Melton was draft-eligible last year, but because he was one of the youngest players in the class and didn't quite live up to expectations, he returned to San Diego State and will still be younger than many first-time eligible players this year including four of the next five players on this list. Relatively new to pitching, he looked strong in the COVID-shortened 2020 season (3.22 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 22.1 IP) and was tabbed as a breakout candidate heading into 2021. While he did make 15 starts and threw over 70 innings in the Aztec rotation, the results themselves were somewhat pedestrian and he was more hittable than expected. Heading into 2022, evaluators are hoping his youth, projection, and increased experience will help him turn the corner and finally have that breakout season. The 6'4" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, scraping the upper 90's at his best and playing up due to his lower release point and good extension. He adds a full arsenal of secondary pitches led by a sweepy slider in addition to more of a get-me-over curveball and changeup. He pounds the zone with strikes, but his lack of a putaway offspeed pitch left him vulnerable to hard contact when his pitches caught too much plate. In 2022, Melton will want to take a step forward with one or more of those offspeeds to keep hitters off his fastball and get away with more location misses, in which case he could really move up boards in a hurray. Scouts already love the athleticism and projection in his frame, and there is plenty of starter upside here if things break right. He ranked #163 on my 2021 list and hasn't seen his stock move much since, so right now it's a middle-of-day-two projection that will likely change significantly before draft day.

6. RHP Devereaux Harrison, Long Beach State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 11/8/2000. Hometown: Vacaville, CA.
2021: 3-1, 1.57 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 42/12 K/BB in 34.1 innings.
In Devereaux Harrison, we already have an early submission for the all-name team. He's seen nothing but success in two seasons out of the Long Beach State bullpen, putting together a 1.50 ERA and a sharp 60/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 innings, often working two, three, or even four innings at a time. His live right arm earned him brief stints with both the Collegiate National Team and Wareham in the Cape Cod League, and now heading into the 2022 season he's one of the more interesting pitchers on the West Coast. Harrison sits in the low 90's with his fastball and regularly peaks into the mid 90's, and the pitch plays up significantly because he generates exceptional ride to the arm side. His secondaries, namely a slider and changeup, are more of a work in progress, with the slider varying considerably in its quality but flashing above average at its best and the changeup existing really to give hitters another look. The 6' righty isn't huge but he's cleaned up his delivery significantly since getting to Long Beach and is throwing more strikes, though his long arm action still causes some inconsistency in his release point. At this point, he probably projects more as a reliever due to the fact that he's mostly a two pitch guy for now that hasn't been stretched out and struggles with inconsistency at times, though he has a whole spring to show evaluators he can start. If the Northern California native can successfully transition to the rotation this spring and maintain his high octane stuff, he could jump quickly into the top two to three rounds, but college relievers have a very checkered track record in pro ball and it might be more of a middle-of-day-two projection if he can't shed that profile.

7. RHP Jacob Meador, Dallas Baptist.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'11", 170 lbs. Born 10/26/2000. Hometown: Burleson, TX.
2021: 1-1, 5.68 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 19 innings.
Jacob Meador is just about as DFW as it gets, having grown up in Burleson in the far southwestern corner of the Metroplex, pitching two years at TCU in Fort Worth, and now transferring across the Mid Cities to Dallas Baptist. Meador has always possessed great stuff and he stood out for just that with the Horned Frogs but a combination of poor command and a deep pitching staff meant he never really got the chance to settle in with consistent innings. However, he spent the summer with Yarmouth-Dennis in the Cape Cod League and shined, pitching to a 3.62 ERA and, most importantly, a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 innings. Now he'll hope that he can continue to combine his high octane stuff with newly found command to fully turn the corner at DBU. Meador sits in the low 90's with his fastball but has touched the upper 90's, once reportedly getting as high as 99, while adding a slider and changeup that are both devastating when they're on. Unfortunately he rarely has everything working at once, and for much of his career his command has been well below average. The 5'11" righty moves very well on the mound and is trending hard in the right direction, and if the change of scenery is enough to help him put it all together, he has the talent to go in the top couple of rounds. His stock could move in any number of directions this spring depending on how his command and offspeed stuff looks, but there's an up arrow next to his name and a lot of area scouts are rooting for the guy they saw on the Cape to show up this spring. If he does, there is mid-rotation starter upside.

8. RHP Drew Thorpe, Cal Poly.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'4", 190 lbs. Born 10/1/2000. Hometown: Washington, UT.
2021: 6-6, 3.79 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 104/38 K/BB in 90.1 innings.
Drew Thorpe does not have the flashiest stuff on this list, but he's been as dependable as they come for Cal Poly and in two seasons has a very respectable 3.65 ERA and a 135/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings, beginning with seven innings of two run ball against reigning national champion Vanderbilt in his very first collegiate outing. Thorpe pitched for the Collegiate National Team this summer and was roughed up to the tune of eleven runs on nineteen hits in eight innings, but he righted the ship a bit in the Cape Cod League with just one earned run over ten innings, including nine strikeouts. The 6'4" righty sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out at 95 over the summer but lacking big life on the pitch. He flips in a fringy, get-me-over curveball but really lives by his plus changeup, and he works through that three pitch arsenal very effectively in games. With a sturdy frame and an easy, repeatable delivery, he has the look of a workhorse starter that could give a major league team 180+ innings a year (that's a workhorse these days) while avoiding trips to the injured list or bouts of wildness. To reach that #4 starter ceiling, however, he'll have to improve that breaking ball to at least an average pitch so he can more effectively get to his changeup and put hitters away, and we saw with the CNT what happens when advanced hitters are able to sit on pitches. Given his gamer profile, it seems like a good bet he'll be able to figure something out with that breaking ball, and if he doesn't he probably profiles as a long reliever. It's the most complete starting pitcher profile on this list, though that doesn't necessarily mean "high floor" just because a consistent starting pitcher that tops out in AA/AAA provides the exact same amount of value as a guy who flames out throwing poorly-aimed 100 in Low A.

9. RHP William Kempner, Gonzaga.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 220 lbs. Born 6/1/2001. Hometown: San Jose, CA.
2021: 3-3, 3.10 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 34/29 K/BB in 40.2 innings.
It's November so naturally Spokane is in full basketball mode, but the Gonzaga baseball team has a pair of interesting pitching prospects in William Kempner and Gabriel Hughes. Kempner is probably just a little bit ahead of Hughes in terms of prospect status for now, coming off a strong summer in the Alaska Baseball League in which he averaged nearly six innings per start and posted a strong 2.87 ERA and a 44/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.2 innings. He stands out first and foremost for having one of the better fastballs in the class, a low to mid 90's offering that can touch 98 in relief and which comes in with tremendous running life to the arm side, somewhat similar to former Oklahoma pitcher and Red Sox seventh rounder Wyatt Olds last year. He also adds a solid slider that can flash above average at its best but which can sometimes lack bite, while his above average changeup plays really nicely from his wide, low three quarters arm slot. The 6' righty has a sturdy build and has shown that he can handle a starter's workload, but his below average control and unique operation likely push him to the bullpen long term where his stuff should tick up. That likely limits his draft ceiling a bit, but there are plenty of teams actively searching for data-rich pitchers who can provide a unique look they can play with, and Kempner certainly fits that profile. Depending how his control looks in 2022 and how many bats he can miss (his 18.3% strikeout rate was just a bit lower than you'd like to see in 2021), we'll see how just enticing the profile ends up looking.

10. C Nate Rombach, Dallas Baptist.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 11/26/2000. Hometown: Mansfield, TX.
2021: 9 HR, .222/.359/.521, 0 SB, 47/25 K/BB in 40 games.
If you look at Nate Rombach's career, you'll really see a story of two different players. He hit .333/.453/.750 with nine home runs over his first 25 games, spanning his shortened freshman season with the first six games of 2021, but his production fell off a cliff once the calendar turned to March and he hit just .106/.268/.242 over his next 24 games with a staggering 39% strikeout rate. Fortunately, Rombach started to bust out of that slump and homered in three straight games against Kansas, Baylor, and TCU in late May, then hit .298/.417/.394 over the summer in the California Collegiate League. So, after all of that, we're left with the question of who is the real Nate Rombach? He's a big, physical catcher at 6'4" with plus raw power from the right side, which he gets to in games when he's going right. I was in attendance for game #21 of that hot stretch to start his career, where he took eventual first round pick Gunnar Hoglund deep on a 93 MPH fastball and later produced very hard hit balls against a hard Hoglund slider and a slow Austin Miller curveball in the same game. He's patient in the box, but he doesn't always have the bat to ball skills to be successful in those deep counts and often came away on the losing end, especially during his slump. It may be a case of finding a balance in his two strike approach between toning down his big, powerful swing and still wanting to do damage. He'll likely always be power over hit, though if he can stick behind the plate, there is enough upside in the bat to be excited. Hopefully a change of scenery to Dallas Baptist near his hometown of Mansfield (where he'll team up with fellow transfer and #7 on this list Jacob Meador, who grew up one town over) will help him put it all together. Behind the plate, Rombach is a bit rough around the edges, but he's a big target back there and his cannon arm helps make back some of that value. With robo umps likely coming in the near future, he has a better chance to remain a catcher than he might have a few years ago. He's also known to have a strong work ethic, which will obviously benefit him on both sides of the ball.