First 5 rounds: Grayson Rodriguez (1-11), Cadyn Grenier (CBA-37), Blaine Knight (3-87), Drew Rom (4-115), Robert Neustrom (5-145)
Also notable: Cody Roberts (11-325), Trevor Putzig (17-505), Conor Grammes (35-1045), Slade Cecconi (38-1135)
The Orioles mixed up their class well, going high school upside pitcher, college infielder, college pitcher, high school pitcher, college hitter in the first five rounds. The balance continued throughout the draft, as Baltimore restocked a fairly barren system that is really lacking in every department. past They haven't been great at developing talent lately, so they'll hope to get a few Ryan Mountcastle's instead of a Cody Sedlock.
1-11: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (my rank: 27)
I ranked Rodriguez down at 27 due to his risk, but his upside could justify this pick. The 6'5" righty out of Nacogdoches, Texas came into the spring in much better shape than he had been in over the summer and the results showed, with his exceptional arm strength leading the way. He can get his fastball up to 98 and sits in the mid 90's, with its heavy life generating plenty of ground balls and making it a plus pitch. His hard-biting slider is his best secondary, and he also throws a curve and a changeup, giving him a full arsenal to go with that top notch arm strength. That's what pushed him up to pick eleven, but there are some negatives to his profile that make me think he shouldn't have gone so early. The biggest thing is that he has a very arm-heavy delivery, one that puts a lot of stress on that right arm and could make him more of an injury risk. Through that delivery, he also holds the ball down behind him for a long enough time that pro hitters could get a good luck at the pitch and take advantage. That will need to change. He has a high ceiling as well as a high floor. The pick value here is $4.4 million and he has already expressed interest in signing, and it's not out of the question that he could sign under-slot.
CBA-37: SS Cadyn Grenier (my rank: 82)
Grenier is universally regarded as one of the best, if not the best, defensive shortstops in college baseball, manning the position for the powerhouse Oregon State club that also includes first round picks Nick Madrigal (White Sox) and Trevor Larnach (Twins). While there is no question that Grenier can stay at shortstop and thrive there, whether he hits enough is a question. In 58 games for the Beavers heading into the draft, Grenier had slashed a respectable .328/.415/.478 with five home runs and a 49/29 strikeout to walk ratio. Those are good college numbers, but I'm not quite sure it's enough to justify a pick that high unless he signs under-slot. He doesn't have much projection as a hitter, so he'll have to continue hitting for contact and drawing walks to provide value with the bat. His strikeout and walk rates were 17.1% and 10.1% prior to the draft, respectively, which isn't ideal for the kind of player he is. Superb glove, but it won't matter if he can't hit his way through the minors. Slot value is $1.9 million, though I expect him to sign for less than that.
3-87: RHP Blaine Knight (my rank: 50)
Knight is a very good pitcher to grab in the third round, but they'll likely have to take whatever money they save on Grenier and put it towards him because I see him wanting more than the slot value of $663,200. Knight, like Grenier, comes from a powerhouse baseball program, acting as the ace of the Arkansas rotation the past two seasons. This year, heading into super-regionals, he is 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, racking up an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 95 innings. That gives him a three year track record of success in the SEC, and he has good command of a four pitch arsenal. It's headlined by a low to mid 90's fastball, but also includes a good slider and a workable curveball and changeup. That's a starter's profile, but he does have a few negatives on his resume. He's 6'3" but is listed at just 165 pounds, and while for most pitchers that would scream projectability and the promise of more velocity, he has such a skinny build that it could lead to durability issues, which would push him to the bullpen. He was eligible last season as an older sophomore and could have been a second round pick, but high bonus demands pushed him down to the 29th round and he returned to school. That means he'll turn 22 in a couple of weeks and is older than most college juniors. For the third round, the combination of present stuff and ceiling is a good value, so long as they can sign him away from his senior year in Fayetteville.
5-145: RF Robert Neustrom (unranked)
Neustrom just finished his junior year at the University of Iowa and has been a very productive player there, slashing .310/.376/.484 over three seasons, coming in at a career best .311/.386/.538 this year with eleven home runs and a 34/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Impressively, he played very well in the Cape Cod League last summer, slashing .302/.346/.479 with four home runs and a 22/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games. The K/BB wasn't all that pretty, but those are very good numbers for how tough of a league the Cape is. The bat will have to play, because his defense is just adequate and he might be forced to move to left field. I have confidence that it could, as he does a lot of things well at the plate, from his above average power and plate discipline to his well-regarded work ethic and success on the Cape. The slot value is $361,000, and I like this pick.
Others: Fourth rounder Drew Rom is a 6'2" left handed pitcher out of a Kentucky high school near Cincinnati. He throws his fastball right around 90 right now, but his slider is his best pitch with hard bite in on right handed hitters. He's more upside than floor, but he does have the tools to work with. Pick value is $483,300 and he's committed to Michigan, but my guess is that he probably signs. 11th rounder Cody Roberts has been UNC's catcher for three years, and while he hasn't hit all that much (.266/.357/.358 career), his glove is very good and he walks enough to put some value in the bat as well. He could work his way into a backup catcher's role in Baltimore. 17th rounder Trevor Putzig has been one of the best bats on the unstoppable Tennessee Tech offense this year, slashing .313/.423/.615 with 16 home runs and a 38/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 50 games. He was drafted as a third baseman and will get the chance to try to stay there, though he may have to move to the outfield eventually. One negative is his age, as he turns 23 in August and was the oldest of the Orioles' 40 draft picks. 35th rounder Conor Grammes is a local Northern Virginia kid, one who I played against in high school when I was at James Madison in Vienna and he was at McLean. He has hit and hit and hit since getting to Xavier, slashing .336/.378/.508 with a 17 home runs and an 87/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games in his two years in Cincinnati. Interestingly though, he was drafted as a pitcher despite finishing this season 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA, a 1.79 WHIP, and a 45/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings. His strikeout rate is great, but he'll need to improve his command dramatically if he wants to push his way up as a reliever. He's a draft-eligible sophomore, so I'm not sure he signs here. Lastly, 38th rounder Slade Cecconi could have been drafted in the second or third round, but signing bonus demands pushed him down to the 38th and he almost definitely goes to the University of Miami instead of the Orioles' minor league system. The 6''4" high school righty ranked 80th on my list, showing a lot of inconsistency but a lot of upside as well. Over the summer last year, he was up to 97 with his fastball and showed projectable offspeed pitches, but he lost a few miles per hour off his fastball in the spring and never really established his slider or his curveball as a dominant pitch. As I said, he likely heads to The U, but he could emerge after two years (he'll be a draft eligible sophomore in 2020) as a first round pick.
Showing posts with label Blaine Knight. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Blaine Knight. Show all posts
Saturday, June 9, 2018
Monday, June 4, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 10 College RHP's
College right handers are always popular on draft day, as they are often close to finished products and can get to the major leagues pretty quickly. Casey Mize is all but certain to go first overall, and four of these guys will almost certainly go in the first round. Five of the first seven guys on this list come from the SEC, which isn't surprising when you realize that Max Scherzer (Missouri), Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt), Aaron Nola (LSU), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), Lance Lynn (Ole Miss), and plenty more were all SEC right handers.
1. Casey Mize (Auburn)
Nothing is ever a sure thing with the draft, but all signs point to Mize going first overall to the Tigers and have for a while. A year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent SEC history in 2017 (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 109/9 K/BB), Mize came right back with another huge season in 2018. Across 16 starts, the 6'3" righty went 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 151/12 strikeout to walk ratio across 109.2 innings, showcasing premium stuff and excellent command. He may not be all that projectable, but that is okay when the finished product throws mid 90's with an un-hittable splitter, a good slider, and the ability to command all three pitches wherever he wants them. He has a track record of success in the SEC and has very few flaws associated with his profile. To nitpick, he was shut down at the end of his sophomore season, but that didn't happen this year, though he did have a couple of so-so starts towards the end of this year.
2. Brady Singer (Florida)
Brady Singer will make it three straight years that a Florida Gator starting pitcher was drafted in the first eighteen picks, following A.J. Puk (6th overall, 2016) and Alex Faedo (18th overall, 2017). Singer dominated the powerful SEC as a sophomore last year (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 129/32 K/BB), then was even better this year, at least statistically, going 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio across 95 innings. He is your prototypical top of the draft starting pitcher, bringing in a track record of performance, pitcher's frame (6'5", 180 lbs), a smooth delivery, a fastball in the mid 90's, a slider that is un-hittable at its best, a good changeup, and plenty of control to make it all work together. In addition, he is said to have a good work ethic and a true pitcher's mentality on the mound. Some scouts knock him for his inconsistency and his three quarters arm slot, but he still projects to go anywhere in the top half of the first round.
3. Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
Gilbert is a bit tough to project, having dominated both the Cape Cod League (1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 31/4 K/BB) and the Atlantic Sun Conference in college, but he has been inconsistent at times and has a wide range of projections for a first round college starting pitcher. He turned in a very good season in 2018 (11-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 157/23 K/BB), with the strikeout rate (38.1%) in particular standing out. Mid-major college hitters had no chance against Gilbert's stuff, and when he's at his best, it's truly premium. He is 6'5" and projectable, throwing in the mid 90's at his best with a very good slider, a curveball, a good changeup, and enough control to make it work. However, there have been times when he has dipped into the low 90's and his stuff has flattened out a bit, which pushes him out of top ten consideration, but a team confident in their ability to bring his best out of him could take him in the middle of the first round. The combination of strikeout stuff, Cape performance, and projectability is very valuable.
4. Jackson Kowar (Florida)
We're on number four and still haven't made it north of southern Alabama, but that's okay. The 6'5" Kowar pitches in the same Gator rotation as Brady Singer, and at times, he has been better than his more well-known counterpart. Kowar also took a step forward statistically this season, going 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in the tough SEC. He's a different pitcher than Singer, as his breaking ball, a curve, isn't nearly as advanced, and he relies on a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. That changeup is excellent, generating tons of swings and misses, and will buy his curveball time to develop. Meanwhile, his fastball already sits in the mid 90's, and with his projectable frame, it could get even faster. His control is just average, and improving that could be his key to success even if he doesn't improve the curve. His draft range is the same as Gilbert's, somewhere in the middle of the first round.
5. Tristan Beck (Stanford)
There is a big gap between Gilbert/Kowar and the next best college righty available, Tristan Beck, but Beck still has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. The 6'4" Stanford ace was eligible last year and could have been a first round pick if he hadn't hurt his back and missed the season, so he's back again this year and figures to go somewhere just outside the first round. Beck hasn't quite taken the step forward scouts were hoping for this year, finishing 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. His stuff hasn't been quite as sharp as it was his healthy freshman season, though where it is now is still pretty good. He throws in the low 90's without much movement, and his curve is still good despite losing some bite from two years ago. The changeup is his out pitch, and he commands it well, giving him three solid pitches from a clean delivery. His command is pretty good overall, enough to make his stuff play up and get him to the majors, but it's not quite plus and it won't make him an impact starter on its own. His age also is a negative, as he turns 22 just a few weeks after the draft.
6. Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
The first thing that stands out about Hjelle, and the first thing you'll hear in any scouting report about him, is that he's 6'11". If he makes the majors, he'll tie Jon Rauch as the tallest player in major league history. He's a true string bean, so if he can add some good weight, there is a world of projection. Hjelle currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and throws a pretty good curveball, and his slider and changeup fill out his arsenal. Despite his exceptional height, he commands his pitches very well, and the downward plane he generates helps all of his pitches play up. There is always injury risk with a player of his size, but so far he has proven durable and his athleticism should help mitigate at least some of those concerns. He finished his junior season 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings mostly against tough SEC hitting, and he figures to go somewhere in the second round.
7. Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
Like Beck, Knight was eligible as a sophomore last season, but he didn't sign when teams failed to meet his lofty price tag. He improved his stats somewhat this year, going 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. There is a little bit of tweener risk here, but Knight does have very good present stuff that includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a pretty good slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which he can land for strikes. One knock against him is his size, because despite his 6'3" height, he is very skinny and probably won't be able to add much weight, meaning possible durability issues down the line. His drafting team will run him out as a starter at first and see how long he can last, though he may ultimately be destined for the bullpen. Like Beck, he is a little older and will turn 22 shortly after the draft, where he is projected to go in the second round.
8. Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
Roberts is definitely an interesting arm. The 6'3" righty was also eligible last season, but obviously didn't sign. That year, he was a lights out reliever, posting a 2.19 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings, showing premium stuff and mediocre command. Wake Forest moved him to the rotation this spring with mixed results, as he finished 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 130/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings. His walk rate actually improved and he continued to strike out an absurd number of hitters, but he was hit a bit harder. There is effort in his delivery and his changeup isn't all that advanced, so there is a very good chance he could end up a reliever, but he'd be excellent there. In short spurts, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and his slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, though he loses a few MPH off that fastball as a starter and the slider more plus than plus-plus in long outings. He'll probably go in the second or third round, and his drafting team will likely try him out as a starter, but his home is probably in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination can be deadly. Like Beck and Knight, he also is old with a June birthday and will be 22 shortly after the draft.
9. Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Of no relation to the deceased ex-football player, Hernandez is a very interesting prospect in his own right. The 6'2" righty throws a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade out as above average, and he has proven that he can maintain that stuff deep into starts. Those are the pros. On the negative side, he missed his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play, and when he came back for his junior year, he was hit harder than he should have been, going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings in a less competitive Southland Conference. His strikeout rate is promising, but his crouch and drive delivery leads to a favorable angle for hitters to see and attack his pitches. I personally think pro coaching can help him alter that delivery enough to get the most out of his stuff. He did survive the Cape Cod League in a small sample, striking out eleven and walking four in ten innings. He projects anywhere in the second through fourth rounds.
10. Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
While Griffin Roberts will probably end up in the bullpen, Durbin Feltman is the only pure relief prospect on this list. His numbers were excellent at TCU, as he put up a 0.74 ERA, a matching 0.74 WHIP, and a 43/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings out of the bullpen. He had this success with a mid to upper 90's fastball that has hit 99 in the past as well as very good slider, despite coming in at just 6'1". The command is there as well, and he could be the first player in this class to reach the major leagues. He projects to come off the board sometime in the second or third rounds, though college relievers can go earlier than expected if a team wants an impact soon.
Others: Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton), Dylan Coleman (Missouri State), Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M), Sean Wymer (TCU), Jonathan Stiever (Indiana)
1. Casey Mize (Auburn)
Nothing is ever a sure thing with the draft, but all signs point to Mize going first overall to the Tigers and have for a while. A year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent SEC history in 2017 (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 109/9 K/BB), Mize came right back with another huge season in 2018. Across 16 starts, the 6'3" righty went 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 151/12 strikeout to walk ratio across 109.2 innings, showcasing premium stuff and excellent command. He may not be all that projectable, but that is okay when the finished product throws mid 90's with an un-hittable splitter, a good slider, and the ability to command all three pitches wherever he wants them. He has a track record of success in the SEC and has very few flaws associated with his profile. To nitpick, he was shut down at the end of his sophomore season, but that didn't happen this year, though he did have a couple of so-so starts towards the end of this year.
2. Brady Singer (Florida)
Brady Singer will make it three straight years that a Florida Gator starting pitcher was drafted in the first eighteen picks, following A.J. Puk (6th overall, 2016) and Alex Faedo (18th overall, 2017). Singer dominated the powerful SEC as a sophomore last year (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 129/32 K/BB), then was even better this year, at least statistically, going 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio across 95 innings. He is your prototypical top of the draft starting pitcher, bringing in a track record of performance, pitcher's frame (6'5", 180 lbs), a smooth delivery, a fastball in the mid 90's, a slider that is un-hittable at its best, a good changeup, and plenty of control to make it all work together. In addition, he is said to have a good work ethic and a true pitcher's mentality on the mound. Some scouts knock him for his inconsistency and his three quarters arm slot, but he still projects to go anywhere in the top half of the first round.
3. Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
Gilbert is a bit tough to project, having dominated both the Cape Cod League (1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 31/4 K/BB) and the Atlantic Sun Conference in college, but he has been inconsistent at times and has a wide range of projections for a first round college starting pitcher. He turned in a very good season in 2018 (11-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 157/23 K/BB), with the strikeout rate (38.1%) in particular standing out. Mid-major college hitters had no chance against Gilbert's stuff, and when he's at his best, it's truly premium. He is 6'5" and projectable, throwing in the mid 90's at his best with a very good slider, a curveball, a good changeup, and enough control to make it work. However, there have been times when he has dipped into the low 90's and his stuff has flattened out a bit, which pushes him out of top ten consideration, but a team confident in their ability to bring his best out of him could take him in the middle of the first round. The combination of strikeout stuff, Cape performance, and projectability is very valuable.
4. Jackson Kowar (Florida)
We're on number four and still haven't made it north of southern Alabama, but that's okay. The 6'5" Kowar pitches in the same Gator rotation as Brady Singer, and at times, he has been better than his more well-known counterpart. Kowar also took a step forward statistically this season, going 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in the tough SEC. He's a different pitcher than Singer, as his breaking ball, a curve, isn't nearly as advanced, and he relies on a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. That changeup is excellent, generating tons of swings and misses, and will buy his curveball time to develop. Meanwhile, his fastball already sits in the mid 90's, and with his projectable frame, it could get even faster. His control is just average, and improving that could be his key to success even if he doesn't improve the curve. His draft range is the same as Gilbert's, somewhere in the middle of the first round.
5. Tristan Beck (Stanford)
There is a big gap between Gilbert/Kowar and the next best college righty available, Tristan Beck, but Beck still has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. The 6'4" Stanford ace was eligible last year and could have been a first round pick if he hadn't hurt his back and missed the season, so he's back again this year and figures to go somewhere just outside the first round. Beck hasn't quite taken the step forward scouts were hoping for this year, finishing 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. His stuff hasn't been quite as sharp as it was his healthy freshman season, though where it is now is still pretty good. He throws in the low 90's without much movement, and his curve is still good despite losing some bite from two years ago. The changeup is his out pitch, and he commands it well, giving him three solid pitches from a clean delivery. His command is pretty good overall, enough to make his stuff play up and get him to the majors, but it's not quite plus and it won't make him an impact starter on its own. His age also is a negative, as he turns 22 just a few weeks after the draft.
6. Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
The first thing that stands out about Hjelle, and the first thing you'll hear in any scouting report about him, is that he's 6'11". If he makes the majors, he'll tie Jon Rauch as the tallest player in major league history. He's a true string bean, so if he can add some good weight, there is a world of projection. Hjelle currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and throws a pretty good curveball, and his slider and changeup fill out his arsenal. Despite his exceptional height, he commands his pitches very well, and the downward plane he generates helps all of his pitches play up. There is always injury risk with a player of his size, but so far he has proven durable and his athleticism should help mitigate at least some of those concerns. He finished his junior season 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings mostly against tough SEC hitting, and he figures to go somewhere in the second round.
7. Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
Like Beck, Knight was eligible as a sophomore last season, but he didn't sign when teams failed to meet his lofty price tag. He improved his stats somewhat this year, going 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. There is a little bit of tweener risk here, but Knight does have very good present stuff that includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a pretty good slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which he can land for strikes. One knock against him is his size, because despite his 6'3" height, he is very skinny and probably won't be able to add much weight, meaning possible durability issues down the line. His drafting team will run him out as a starter at first and see how long he can last, though he may ultimately be destined for the bullpen. Like Beck, he is a little older and will turn 22 shortly after the draft, where he is projected to go in the second round.
8. Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
Roberts is definitely an interesting arm. The 6'3" righty was also eligible last season, but obviously didn't sign. That year, he was a lights out reliever, posting a 2.19 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings, showing premium stuff and mediocre command. Wake Forest moved him to the rotation this spring with mixed results, as he finished 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 130/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings. His walk rate actually improved and he continued to strike out an absurd number of hitters, but he was hit a bit harder. There is effort in his delivery and his changeup isn't all that advanced, so there is a very good chance he could end up a reliever, but he'd be excellent there. In short spurts, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and his slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, though he loses a few MPH off that fastball as a starter and the slider more plus than plus-plus in long outings. He'll probably go in the second or third round, and his drafting team will likely try him out as a starter, but his home is probably in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination can be deadly. Like Beck and Knight, he also is old with a June birthday and will be 22 shortly after the draft.
9. Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Of no relation to the deceased ex-football player, Hernandez is a very interesting prospect in his own right. The 6'2" righty throws a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade out as above average, and he has proven that he can maintain that stuff deep into starts. Those are the pros. On the negative side, he missed his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play, and when he came back for his junior year, he was hit harder than he should have been, going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings in a less competitive Southland Conference. His strikeout rate is promising, but his crouch and drive delivery leads to a favorable angle for hitters to see and attack his pitches. I personally think pro coaching can help him alter that delivery enough to get the most out of his stuff. He did survive the Cape Cod League in a small sample, striking out eleven and walking four in ten innings. He projects anywhere in the second through fourth rounds.
10. Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
While Griffin Roberts will probably end up in the bullpen, Durbin Feltman is the only pure relief prospect on this list. His numbers were excellent at TCU, as he put up a 0.74 ERA, a matching 0.74 WHIP, and a 43/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings out of the bullpen. He had this success with a mid to upper 90's fastball that has hit 99 in the past as well as very good slider, despite coming in at just 6'1". The command is there as well, and he could be the first player in this class to reach the major leagues. He projects to come off the board sometime in the second or third rounds, though college relievers can go earlier than expected if a team wants an impact soon.
Others: Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton), Dylan Coleman (Missouri State), Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M), Sean Wymer (TCU), Jonathan Stiever (Indiana)
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Texas Rangers
First 5 rounds: Bubba Thompson (1-26), Chris Seise (1-29), Hans Crouse (2-66), Matt Whatley (3-104), Ryan Dease (4-134), Jake Latz (5-164)
Also notable: Noah Bremer (6-194), Tanner Gardner (9-284), Blaine Knight (29-884), Jordan Anderson (40-1214)
Everybody knows the Rangers love upside and athleticism, and that's exactly what they got here. They went the high school route with their first three picks, and the three they picked fit the upside/risk bill well. Throughout the draft, they mixed high school and college, hitters and pitchers, not leaning in any particular direction.
1-26: OF Bubba Thompson (my rank: 24)
Thompson exactly matches the stereotypical Rangers pick. He's a high school centerfielder from Mobile, Alabama with a cannon arm and the projection to be an above average hitter, though he is raw after splitting his time between baseball and football. As a quarterback, he had scholarship offers from Tennessee and Ole Miss, so you can tell the kind of athleticism we're talking here with Thompson. He doesn't have the most powerful bat, but he should be able to produce 15-20 home runs per year while getting on base at a good clip and stealing more than a few bags. The five-tool upside is there, but as a high schooler, he carries some significant risk, even if the risk sin't as high as with a guy like Quentin Holmes or Jo Adell. Thompson signed for $2.1 million, which is $345,100 under slot.
1-29: SS Chris Seise (my rank: 56)
Seise is a player in a similar mold as Thompson. An athletic shortstop from a high school near Orlando, Seise made significant improvements with his offense this year and could be an average hitter in the big leagues. Seise is good enough defensively to play shortstop for now, but he'll have to work to remain there. He could be a similar player to current Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, with more power but less speed. Seise signed for $2 million, which is $238,900 under slot.
2-66: RHP Hans Crouse (my rank: 35)
Hans Crouse is basically the pitching version of Thompson and Seise. The 6'5" right hander is very skinny and has lots of room for more good weight, but he already throws in the mid 90's with a breaking ball that could be a plus pitch in time. On the flip side, he has below average command, and the breaking ball is somewhat stuck between a curveball and a slider. When he keeps it down in the zone, it has hard slider break and can miss bats, but when it's up, it's very hittable. Crouse also has a lower arm slot and short arm action, which makes me believe he may never have average command, and that it might be tough for him to cut it as a starter. I see him as a reliever, albeit one with high upside that could hit 100 MPH in the bullpen down the road. Crouse signed for $1.45 million, which is $523,500 above slot.
3-104: C Matt Whatley (my rank: 89)
Whatley, a college catcher from Oral Roberts University, is a very different prospect from the first three players. He's a high-floor catcher who projects as a back-up at the major league level, and he's good enough defensively to stick back there. After two big seasons as a freshman and as a sophomore at Oral Roberts (.359/.446/.545 combined), but had a tough summer on the Cape (.198/.271/.279) and slumped somewhat as a junior (.302/.446/.509). A solid defender, he has plus power potential but may struggle with contact at the next level because his head changes level with his swing. Whatley signed for an at-slot bonus of $517,100.
5-164: LHP Jake Latz (unranked)
Now here is an interesting pick. Latz missed his freshman year at LSU with elbow issues, then pitched just 8.1 innings during his sophomore year in 2016 before transferring to Kent State for his junior year. Because of NCAA transfer rules, he couldn't pitch this year, but in his bullpen sessions, he's shown the potential to be a starter going through the minor leagues with his full arsenal. He's a 6'2" lefty, and teams love left handed pitchers. Latz signed for $386,100, which is $97,600 above slot.
29-884: RHP Blaine Knight (my rank: 61)
Knight is a draft-eligible sophomore at Arkansas, who has really elevated his stock with two solid years for the Razorbacks, going 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 142 in 139 innings. Knight probably won't sign here, but he's a very skinny, 6'3" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal, though none of his secondaries grade out as plus. He has a chance to be a big league starter, but he'll have to add weight and prove his durability.
Others: 4th rounder Ryan Dease is a high school pitcher from Florida, one who throws his fastball around 90 but has the athleticism to add velocity. He's a high risk, high ceiling pick with his lack of secondaries, and he hasn't signed yet. 6th rounder Noah Bremer comes from the University of Washington, where he had a very successful three year career, going 16-11 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, striking out 205 in 284 innings. He's hard to peg going forward, coming in with a fastball around 90, but he brings a solid curveball and decent command. 9th rounder Tanner Gardner is another familiar name for college baseball fans, having been a big part of Texas Tech's run to the College World Series in 2016 (.379/.484/.549, 3 HR), but wasn't quite as great in 2017 (.305/.395/.485, 5 HR). He projects best as a fourth or fifth outfielder going forward. 40th rounder Jordan Anderson almost certainly won't sign and will instead attend Mississippi State, where he could blossom into a high pick in 2020. Anderson has all the tools, but he has struggled to put them together. His bat isn't in the zone for long and he may struggle to hit for contact even in college, but hopefully the higher level coaching can steer him right.
Also notable: Noah Bremer (6-194), Tanner Gardner (9-284), Blaine Knight (29-884), Jordan Anderson (40-1214)
Everybody knows the Rangers love upside and athleticism, and that's exactly what they got here. They went the high school route with their first three picks, and the three they picked fit the upside/risk bill well. Throughout the draft, they mixed high school and college, hitters and pitchers, not leaning in any particular direction.
1-26: OF Bubba Thompson (my rank: 24)
Thompson exactly matches the stereotypical Rangers pick. He's a high school centerfielder from Mobile, Alabama with a cannon arm and the projection to be an above average hitter, though he is raw after splitting his time between baseball and football. As a quarterback, he had scholarship offers from Tennessee and Ole Miss, so you can tell the kind of athleticism we're talking here with Thompson. He doesn't have the most powerful bat, but he should be able to produce 15-20 home runs per year while getting on base at a good clip and stealing more than a few bags. The five-tool upside is there, but as a high schooler, he carries some significant risk, even if the risk sin't as high as with a guy like Quentin Holmes or Jo Adell. Thompson signed for $2.1 million, which is $345,100 under slot.
1-29: SS Chris Seise (my rank: 56)
Seise is a player in a similar mold as Thompson. An athletic shortstop from a high school near Orlando, Seise made significant improvements with his offense this year and could be an average hitter in the big leagues. Seise is good enough defensively to play shortstop for now, but he'll have to work to remain there. He could be a similar player to current Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, with more power but less speed. Seise signed for $2 million, which is $238,900 under slot.
2-66: RHP Hans Crouse (my rank: 35)
Hans Crouse is basically the pitching version of Thompson and Seise. The 6'5" right hander is very skinny and has lots of room for more good weight, but he already throws in the mid 90's with a breaking ball that could be a plus pitch in time. On the flip side, he has below average command, and the breaking ball is somewhat stuck between a curveball and a slider. When he keeps it down in the zone, it has hard slider break and can miss bats, but when it's up, it's very hittable. Crouse also has a lower arm slot and short arm action, which makes me believe he may never have average command, and that it might be tough for him to cut it as a starter. I see him as a reliever, albeit one with high upside that could hit 100 MPH in the bullpen down the road. Crouse signed for $1.45 million, which is $523,500 above slot.
3-104: C Matt Whatley (my rank: 89)
Whatley, a college catcher from Oral Roberts University, is a very different prospect from the first three players. He's a high-floor catcher who projects as a back-up at the major league level, and he's good enough defensively to stick back there. After two big seasons as a freshman and as a sophomore at Oral Roberts (.359/.446/.545 combined), but had a tough summer on the Cape (.198/.271/.279) and slumped somewhat as a junior (.302/.446/.509). A solid defender, he has plus power potential but may struggle with contact at the next level because his head changes level with his swing. Whatley signed for an at-slot bonus of $517,100.
5-164: LHP Jake Latz (unranked)
Now here is an interesting pick. Latz missed his freshman year at LSU with elbow issues, then pitched just 8.1 innings during his sophomore year in 2016 before transferring to Kent State for his junior year. Because of NCAA transfer rules, he couldn't pitch this year, but in his bullpen sessions, he's shown the potential to be a starter going through the minor leagues with his full arsenal. He's a 6'2" lefty, and teams love left handed pitchers. Latz signed for $386,100, which is $97,600 above slot.
29-884: RHP Blaine Knight (my rank: 61)
Knight is a draft-eligible sophomore at Arkansas, who has really elevated his stock with two solid years for the Razorbacks, going 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 142 in 139 innings. Knight probably won't sign here, but he's a very skinny, 6'3" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal, though none of his secondaries grade out as plus. He has a chance to be a big league starter, but he'll have to add weight and prove his durability.
Others: 4th rounder Ryan Dease is a high school pitcher from Florida, one who throws his fastball around 90 but has the athleticism to add velocity. He's a high risk, high ceiling pick with his lack of secondaries, and he hasn't signed yet. 6th rounder Noah Bremer comes from the University of Washington, where he had a very successful three year career, going 16-11 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, striking out 205 in 284 innings. He's hard to peg going forward, coming in with a fastball around 90, but he brings a solid curveball and decent command. 9th rounder Tanner Gardner is another familiar name for college baseball fans, having been a big part of Texas Tech's run to the College World Series in 2016 (.379/.484/.549, 3 HR), but wasn't quite as great in 2017 (.305/.395/.485, 5 HR). He projects best as a fourth or fifth outfielder going forward. 40th rounder Jordan Anderson almost certainly won't sign and will instead attend Mississippi State, where he could blossom into a high pick in 2020. Anderson has all the tools, but he has struggled to put them together. His bat isn't in the zone for long and he may struggle to hit for contact even in college, but hopefully the higher level coaching can steer him right.
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