Showing posts with label Jaxon Jelkin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jaxon Jelkin. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies

Full list of draftees

With their first pick pushed back ten spots due to competitive balance overages, Philadelphia had less draft capital to work with than most teams. They still landed one of the best right-now high school players in the entire country in Tyler Spangler, an advanced bat and glove beyond his years. After following him up with outfielder Caden Bogenpohl, with arguably the loudest raw power in the entire draft class, they pivoted to focusing on pitching and found quite a few interesting arms. Fastballs were the focus, with many unique heaters with outlier traits dotted the class including Deven Sheerin's triple digits, Bo Rhudy's unbelievable spin rates, Wyatt Danilowicz's sneaky life, Drew Titsworth's low launch, and Justin Lee's perfect spin efficiency.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-36: SS Tyler Spangler, De La Salle HS [CA]
Slot value: $2.76 million. Signing bonus: $3.25 million ($491,200 above slot value).
My rank: #38. MLB Pipeline: #36. ESPN: #34.
Despite moving back ten slots for their first pick, the Phillies brought in one of the best all-around players in the high school class. Had he been healthy this spring, Tyler Spangler likely would have gone 10+ picks higher. Earlier in his prep career and on the showcase circuit last summer, Spangler showed off one of the most well-rounded profiles in the class with a combination of hitting ability, thump, size, and steady defense rarely seen from teenagers. Unfortunately, he missed his entire senior season at De La Salle High School in Northern California with a back injury, but made a healthy return at the MLB Draft Combine in June. Listed at 6'3", he's not a big bopper at the plate but rather a more balanced hitter. He has consistently handled high-end pitching with ease while showing off enough present power to profile for perhaps 15-20 home runs annually in the bigs, perhaps a tick more if the Phillies can get him a little more explosive at the plate. For now, Spangler is a line drive hitter who confidently uses the entire field with a simple left handed swing with few holes. The profile is similar in the field, where he plays a sound shortstop with smooth actions and an above average arm, his baseball IQ helping his tools play up further there. He may be pushed to second or third base by a more explosive defender at the six, but if he is, he'll be at least above average at either if not potentially plus if he fully puts the back issues behind him. Previously committed to Stanford, Spangler will almost certainly sign here but could command $3 million-plus.

2-64: OF Caden Bogenpohl, Missouri State
Slot value: $1.42 million. Signing bonus: $1.42 million
My rank: #92. MLB Pipeline: #93. ESPN: #121.
This is one of the most interesting profiles in the draft. Caden Bogenpohl is a hulking 6'6", 245 pound slugger from the small town of Jackson in southeastern Missouri, having spent the past three years as an everyday player at Missouri State. Expectations were high after he hit 33 home runs in his first two seasons in Springfield, but he dropped to just six in 2026 despite mostly facing mid-major competition. Still, the big lefty's power intrigued evaluators and he showed up to the MLB Draft Combine with high expectations. Suffice to say, Bogenpohl did not disappoint – his jaw dropping 115.1 MPH 90th percentile exit velocity was the best mark of the entire field, drawing literal gasps from the scouting crowd as he send baseball after baseball into oblivion. You can teach guys to add power, you can help them get stronger and go from hitting baseballs hard to crushing them, but you cannot teach a hitter to *delete* a baseball. Bogenpohl has the raw power to do just that. He's a patient hitter at the plate as well and ran walk rates above 19% in each of his three seasons at Missouri State, good for a .441 career on-base percentage, but the problem comes with pure feel for the barrel. While he keeps his swing and miss relatively reasonable, he doesn't always square the ball up and can be susceptible to hitting it on the ground too much. Scouts worry that quality pro stuff in the zone will make for a steeper transition. Still, his combination of approach and elite raw power means he won't help pitchers get him out and when he does square it up, it is going to be loud. His size points to more of a first base profile, but the big Missourian actually runs pretty well and played a respectable center field for the Bears. He probably moves to a corner outfield spot in pro ball, but he'll hold his own there for sure. Philadelphia hopes to improve the barrel accuracy just enough to get him to tap potential 30+ home run power consistently in games at Citizens Bank.

3-100: RHP Ruger Riojas, Texas
Slot value: $784,400. Signing bonus: $622,500 ($161,900 below slot value).
My rank: #106. MLB Pipeline: #92. ESPN: #103.
Ruger Riojas gives the Phillies one of the top senior signs in the class. Originally a UTSA Roadrunner, Riojas pitched two years in San Antonio before transferring to Texas for his junior year in 2025. A nasty battle with the flu sapped his stuff and his weight for much of the season, leading him to go undrafted and return for his senior year in Austin. 2026 proved to be a much different story as he sliced through non-conference play with ease (1.64 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 42/3 K/BB in 22 IP) then held his own against a difficult SEC schedule. Riojas' stock probably peaked around mid-season, when he was projected as a second round pick, then corrected just a little towards the end and he makes for a very interesting third rounder. He brings a ton of energy on the mound, starting with one of the game's better flow/stache combos and extending into his approach to pitching. Loose and athletic on the mound, he has an uptempo delivery in which he varies his timing to throw off opposing hitters and remains extremely balanced throughout, pairing well with the confidence he shows. The fastball velocity was up this year, sitting in the mid 90's and reaching as high as 99 on occasion with some hop. While his two-plane slider and truer curveball are more average in movement, he shows great feel to spot them and makes them play up with his conviction. The slider plays better when he tightens it up into a cutter, while his changeup gives him a legitimate weapon to finish off hitters. With a full arsenal and above average command across it all, Riojas pitches deeper into games than his slight 6' frame might indicate. That plus his moxie on the mound makes him a pretty safe bet starting pitcher and one who could move quickly through the minors. Having turned 23 a day after he was drafted, he was the oldest player selected in the first three rounds and is just as advanced as any. He should become a back-end starting pitcher for the Phillies in short order and gives them a nice little discount as well.

4-128: RHP Deven Sheerin, Louisiana State
Slot value: $597,400. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($100 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #145. ESPN: #163.
The Phillies, perhaps more so than other teams, like to dabble in their own backyard and bring Mid-Atlantic kids home. Deven Sheerin is just that, and he has a dang good arm to boot. A Reading native, he graduated from Exeter Township High School just east of the city and less than fifty miles northeast of Citizens Bank Park. Beginning his career at Mount St. Mary's in Maryland, he caught the eyes of the LSU coaching staff and transferred down to Baton Rouge. A torn ACL kept him out of action his sophomore year, but in 2026 he roared back with one of the loudest fastballs in the SEC. It's far and away his best pitch and probably the best single pitch in the Phillies' entire draft class. Sitting in the mid to upper 90's and touching triple digits at peak, he tore apart really good SEC hitters almost on the fastball alone. It's a riding heater with a flatter approach that puts up elite numbers, and he leaned on it heavily in 2026. Sheerin also throws a hard slider in the mid 80's that plays well off his heater, especially when he can locate it, and the Phillies will likely focus there to take a step forward. He also occasionally flips in a curveball that may have some potential if he can gain a little more feel. The big 6'5" righty throws with some effort and can get scattered, and in two college seasons he's made just two starts. Part of that is probably due to LSU's depth on the mound, but in pro ball it's not going to get any easier to crack the rotation. If the Phillies focus in on his secondaries and bring one forward into plus territory, he has late inning potential with his devastating fastball. Better yet, he's young for a college junior and was still 20 on draft day.

4C-135: RHP Jaxon Jelkin, Kentucky
Slot value: $558,400. Signing bonus: $547,500 ($10,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #166. ESPN: unranked.
Jaxon Jelkin has been around for a long time. A talented pitcher out of the Omaha high school ranks in 2021, he started his career at Nebraska but was dismissed from the team after one year. He transferred to South Mountain JC in Arizona, where he was a Dodgers fourteenth round pick in 2023, then transferred to Houston in 2024 and pushed his draft stock to its peak before spring Tommy John surgery. Makeup and medical concerns let him slip to the ninth round, where he did not sign with the Mets, then he transferred to Kentucky and missed the 2025 season recovering. Fully healthy and in his fifth year of school in 2026, he put together a very strong season in the SEC and looked as effective as ever. Jelkin's fastball sits in the mid 90's and at points in his college career has tickled triple digits, missing barrels with heavy run and sink. He spins a pair of strong breaking balls in an above average curveball and a tight slider that he has tightened further into a cutter over time, both of which miss plenty of bats. His changeup has stepped forward as well, giving him one of the better four pitch mixes available especially here outside the top couple of rounds. Over time, Jelkin has tightened up his command and ran just a 5.2% walk rate in 2026, pushing plus territory in that regard, though his low walk rate is more an indication of him pounding the zone than really being able to spot his pitches. He probably settles in with average to above average command in pro ball. Listed at 6'5", he's built like you'd hope for a starting pitcher, while his deep arsenal and strike throwing ability all point in the same direction. At the same time, his checkered injury and off-field history as well as his advanced age (he'll be 24 this offseason) create a lot of variance in the profile. It would be a mid-rotation projection if the rest of his profile was more straightforward and certainly wouldn't be available here after the fourth round.

5-161: OF Will Gasparino, UCLA
Slot value: $433,200. Signing bonus: $430,700 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #79. MLB Pipeline: #72. ESPN: #94.
Will Gasparino is the most tooled up player in this Phillies draft class and has a chance to outplay his draft position. A well-known draft prospect out of the famed Harvard-Westlake High School in the Hollywood Hills, he held firm on his commitment to Texas and hit 25 home runs over two seasons in Austin but also struck out in 29.2% of his plate appearances. Transferring back home to UCLA, he changed his approach by standing taller in the box, simplifying his right handed swing, and learning to hit it 400 feet instead of trying to blast it 450 every time. The results were immediate as he knocked eleven home runs in his first thirteen games against the Bruins' tough non-conference schedule, though the power cooled down in conference play. Gasparino is a lanky, athletic, 6'6" outfielder built like a wide receiver that produces a ton of power at the plate, projecting for plus at times if he can keep his approach in check. He's a very aggressive hitter who chases nearly a third of the time, often playing himself out of counts and creating weaker contact than he's capable of. It was better in 2026, especially with a career-low 21% strikeout rate, but remains an area which will need further improvement in pro ball. More than just a power hitter, he also runs very well for someone so tall and may have the defensive chops to stick in center field long term. With an above average arm, he could be a plus right fielder if he ends up there. The LA native has massive upside if he can get the approach under control, with the potential to become an annual 20-20 threat.

11-339: Drew Titsworth, Clemson
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($100,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Philadelphia's largest bonus of the back half of the draft went to Drew Titsworth, who was a talented high school prospect before spending three years as an important arm on some strong Clemson staffs. While he never broke out into the ace Clemson was looking for, he did finish his career 13-4 with a 4.34 ERA and 119/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings split between starting and relief. He works from a sidearm slot but still shows strong velocity, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching 97 with run and ride from a flat approach angle. The velocity alone from that slot makes him a standout arm, and while the rest of his game can be a little shaky, he has the building blocks to become a strong piece. He can add and subtract from his slider, running it into the upper 80's with a cutterish look or taking some off for a deeper shape. Either way, it's probably an average pitch at best for now, so the Phillies will look to sharpen that up. He also shows a fringy changeup that he has used but sits at the back of his arsenal. The 6'3" righty is built like a workhorse starting pitcher and doesn't throw with too much effort, helping him show average command that will lend itself to starting if his secondaries can find a little more consistency. If not, he has the fastball to profile well in a big league bullpen and work the secondaries off of it.

12-369: RHP Christian Coppola, Saint Joseph's
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
The Phillies dipped into their backyard again with Christian Coppola, a big righty from the Jersey Shore. Coppola grew up in Galloway, just across the bay from Atlantic City, and he attended Cedar Creek High School in nearby Egg Harbor City. Beginning his career at Rutgers, he made a big name for himself with a strong freshman season in 2023 but couldn't quite match that success in 2024. He transferred to Arizona for the 2025 season, but made it into just three games. Transferring a second time to Saint Joseph's for 2026, he found success as a reliever and put up a sharp 1.69 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and an incredible 44.8% strikeout rate. Coppola mainly pitches off a sharp, late breaking, two-plane slider that misses a ton of bats. He also mixes in a distinct curveball with depth, missing plenty of bats on its own. He also runs his fastball into the upper 90's, sitting in the low to mid 90's with great extension from his big frame. He doesn't throw much of a changeup and his command is average, so he's probably a reliever long term, but he has been stretched out in the past and shouldn't just be limited to short relief. As a senior sign who will turn 23 early in the offseason, his great feel for his offspeed stuff could carry him quickly through the minors and to the Phillies' bullpen.

16-489: C Matt Quintanar, Texas Tech
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Matt Quintinar represents one of the top sleepers in the Phillies' draft class. He began his career at Central Arizona JC, then transferred to Blinn JC in Texas as a sophomore where he was one of the best JuCo hitters in the state. Transferring a second time to Texas Tech, he had zero issues jumping to Division I and power conference pitching and made as much contact as anybody in the country. His elite bat to ball ability helps him overcome a noisier setup that includes a bit of a hitch in his swing, running an elite 7.4% strikeout rate in 2026 that still remained a minuscule 9.1% in conference play against Big 12 weekend rotations. Very few hitters in the country can pick a ball up out of the hand and get the barrel there as consistently as he can, but he's not just a slap hitter. There is some latent power in the profile that should help him get the ball over the left field wall when he turns on one, helping him project to potentially reach double digit home run totals at peak. At this point, he doesn't always square the ball up and makes too much weak contact, but if you bring up the quality of contact just a little, he could really step forward as a hitter. The key to that may be a more selective approach, as the Southern California native tends to jump on the first hittable pitch he sees and rarely goes deep into counts to get something he can really drive. A plus arm behind the plate could help him stick back there, which would be huge for the overall profile. A senior sign who turned 22 in April, he could move quickly through the minors and could profile as a hit over power backup catcher at the big league level.

20-609: RHP Justin Lee, UCLA
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Justin Lee was a big name out of the Los Angeles prep ranks in 2023 at the same time as Will Gasparino, ranking just a bit behind him on most draft boards. In three years at UCLA, he hasn't progressed much and remains a projection play. Working mostly as a reliever, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and reaches the upper 90's with unique spin traits including a perfect 100% spin efficiency to put nice life on the pitch. He spins in a sharp slider that could be an above average pitch, while his changeup gives him a third solid pitch. Stuff has never been an issue for the LA native, but command has. He walked 15.7% of his opponents over his first two seasons, a well below average mark, then dropped that rate to a slightly better 13.3% in 2026. It's still a high mark and he'll need to tighten things up significantly in pro ball, but it's progress and it helped him drop his ERA from 7.19 over those first two seasons to 3.26 in 2026. The delivery features some effort that makes it difficult for him to stay on line and repeat his release point, but he's an athletic kid at 6'3" that should be able to smooth things out in Philadelphia. That frame would lend itself well to starting and he's young for the class, but he likely stays in the bullpen where he'll pitch off the fastball/slider combination. It's tremendous talent to find in the 20th round especially if they can get him moving towards his lofty ceiling.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

The top ten unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2025

It took me longer than usual to get all my draft reviews done, but with those out of the way, it's time to take a look at the best prospects to eschew pro ball for now. We'll start with the college prospects, and first let's look at the five from last year's list to go unsigned. Of the five, only one had a truly successful season, as #2 Lebarron Johnson (Texas) pitched his way to a fifth round selection by the Rockies. #1 Tanner Witt (Texas) couldn't stay healthy and #4 Christian Little (LSU) stalled, so both signed for slightly above-slot bonuses on day three to the Mets and Mariners, respectively. Meanwhile, #3 Terry Busse (Georgia Tech) and #5 Joseph Gonzalez (Auburn) struggled mightily and went undrafted again.

This year's class of returners is much more robust, likely due to the continued growth of NIL opportunities that give college draftees added leverage. Last year, just five college players on my draft list went unsigned, while this year that number jumped to thirteen. There were a number of themes among those players, chiefly among them big time power combined with hit tool questions. 6/13 fall into that category, while unsurprisingly, youth and eligibility played a big factor. Each of the first six and eight of the top nine have multiple years of eligibility remaining, while six of the top seven will play the entire coming college season at age-21. After Texas took the top two players on last year's list, LSU was the only school to put two on this year's list, and I was surprised to see only one player hit the transfer portal (unsurprisingly to LSU).

1. LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M (my rank: #69)
Drafted – 3rd round (pick #81), Los Angeles Angels
This was a surprise. After missing 2023 with Tommy John surgery, Ryan Prager returned in 2024 as one of the best pitchers in the SEC and shot up draft boards due to his feel for pitching and sneaky stuff. Amid the controversy of head coach Jim Schlossnagle's abrupt exit to rival Texas, the Angels drafted Prager in the third round in what seemed like a straightforward sign. Despite the double whammy of being a college arm drafted in the top one hundred picks (usually a guarantee to sign) as well as not having the same head coach to come back to, he still declined Los Angeles and returned to College Station to pitch for new Aggie head coach Michael Earley. That's a massive win and will go a long way to ensuring a smooth transition in College Station. Prager himself is a bit of an old school pitcher. His fastball parks around 90 and tops out at 94, showing massive riding life negated a bit by an ultra high, over the top release point. The pitch shows some cutting action, too, and it got great results in 2024. His slider gets late drop and performed admirably, looking like an above average breaker, while his straight changeup gives him a third at least average pitch. Everything plays up for Prager because he works effectively in the zone with plus command and high pitching IQ, mixing and matching his stuff effectively to keep hitters off it. The 6'3" lefty also brings some deception in his delivery with a deep arm plunge that helps hide the ball from view, rocking back over into his over the top delivery. Already a high pitchability arm, Prager will return to school with yet another year of polish in his age-22 season and will look to frustrate SEC hitters again. He'll be a few months shy of his 23rd birthday when the 2025 draft rolls around, but he'll still have leverage as a redshirt junior and even if the signing bonus is lower, the Dallas native figures to make plenty of money through NIL.

2. SS Jalin Flores, Texas (my rank: #103)
Undrafted
Not only did Texas pry Jim Schlossnagle away from Texas A&M, they'll also unexpectedly bring back star shortstop Jalin Flores. After bringing back #1 Tanner Witt and #2 Lebarron Johnson from my draft list a year ago, Texas has three of the four top-2 returners over the past two seasons. It must be the barbecue. Flores was a very well-known prospect in the 2022 draft out of the San Antonio high school ranks, clocking in at #82 on my draft board and the #4 high school position player prospect to reach campus. He was overmatched as a freshman in 2023, struggling in a part-time role, but jumped into the lineup every day in 2024 and put up a massive season to regain most of his lost draft stock. At a listed 6'2", 210 pounds, this is a big league body with long limbs and room to add additional strength to his already physical frame. He uses his strength well in the box, effortlessly tapping his average raw power in games and making good contact against all pitch types when he stays within the zone. It's a really natural operation, one which should serve him well as he fills out and improves his approach. The latter, though, is very pressing and likely led to teams not meeting his bonus demands. Flores is an extreme free-swinger at the plate, often looking like he lacks a plan as he chases more than a third of the time and struck out (20.1%) nearly three times as often as he walked (7.6%). I'm personally a believer in his natural hitting ability and I think if the new Schlossnagle regime can get him executing a plan in the box, he has a chance to jump into the top two rounds in 2025. Interestingly, his defensive profile is the opposite in some ways. While he's not flashy and doesn't run well, his excellent body control and strong feel for the dirt has kept him at shortstop thus far, and he has a shot to continue there in pro ball. Even if he's pushed to third base by a more explosive defender, he could be well above average there with a strong arm to boot.

3. SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian (my rank: #117)
Undrafted
Jalin Flores and Anthony Silva have seen their careers parallel each other to an eerie degree. Born just two weeks apart in July 2003, they attended rival high schools just four miles apart in the San Antonio suburbs and ranked as the #6 and #4 position player prospects to reach campus from the high school Class of 2022, respectively (ranking #89 and #82). While Flores struggled as a freshman at Texas, Silva was excellent for TCU and pushed his way into the fringes of the first round conversation entering 2024. However, as Flores exploded, Silva moved in the opposite direction with a tough sophomore season, and both sophomore-eligible prospects wound up near each other yet again ranking #103 and #117 on my board, respectively. Both priced themselves out of the draft, and they'll both return to their respective schools in the Lone Star State as they rank #2 and #3 on this list. Silva, like I mentioned, was a star for the Horned Frogs in 2023, slashing .330/.416/.471 with just a 12.5% strikeout rate, but dropped to just .268/.369/.384 in 2024 with an 18.6% strikeout rate. Local evaluators noted that he looked stiffer than before. Still, Silva's track record between high school and his big freshman season is plenty enough to remain interested. At his best, he's a very disciplined hitter that makes plenty of contact, adjusting to balls all over the zone to use the whole field effectively with a line drive bat. Listed with almost the exact same measurables as Flores (6'2", 200 pounds), he also has room to grow into more strength but to this point he has not, with fringy exit velocities pointing to 5-10 home runs per season if things don't change. But with high contact rates and potential strength gains, he could easily elevate that projection in 2025. Silva's real selling point, though, is his glove. As a freshman, he glided around the dirt with smooth actions and plenty of arm strength to project as above average at the position, to the point where he really wouldn't have to hit much to provide value at the major league level. He didn't look quite as flashy in 2024, though, and if he continues on that trend he'll be forced to second or third base. Back in Fort Worth, he'll look to return to his freshman self and push back into the top couple of rounds.

4. OF Chris Stanfield, Auburn -> Louisiana State (my rank: #120)
Undrafted
With the way NIL money gets doled out nowadays, Chris Stanfield might have gotten something better than a day two draft selection – an opportunity to transfer to LSU. Stanfield is no stranger to the draft, having ranked #182 on my 2022 board out of high school in Tallahassee, spurning teams at the time so he could attend Auburn. He jumped into the starting lineup as a freshman and has performed admirably over the past two seasons, though he never put up the big numbers he hoped for and will now head west to Baton Rouge. Still, he improved his ranking (on my board at least) by 62 slots up to #120 this year and brings a very interesting skillset to the table. He was just barely eligible this year, turning 21 in July only four days before the cutoff, so he'll still be roughly age-appropriate next year. Still projectable at 6'2", it's a skinny frame that should add more power as he matures and continues to add lean strength. For now, it's a line drive approach from a simple right handed swing that beyond strength gains, could easily add pop if he just looked to turn on the ball more. For now, the exit velocities are fringy and haven't translated to much game power. He's a patient hitter at the plate, making plenty of contact when he swings but sometimes getting overly passive and getting into trouble in deep counts. Another season in college, now under the tutelage of Jay Johnson at LSU, should help him learn to leverage the ball better for more power while controlling his at bats a bit better. Stanfield is also a plus runner who will compete for the center field job in Baton Rouge, and he could continue to stick up the middle in pro ball. That takes some pressure off his bat as well, though he may not need it if he brings everything together. It's a profile that could explode this year.

5. LHP Cade Obermueller, Iowa (my rank: #150)
Drafted – 19th round (pick #585), Texas Rangers
Cade Obermueller joined the names above him as a highly regarded freshman reaching campus, the #7 pitcher to do so from the high school Class of 2022 after ranking #124 on my 2022 board, and he wasn't quite ready to leave his hometown Hawkeyes after two seasons. After spending his freshman season in the bullpen, he shined in the Cape Cod League that summer (1.83 ERA, 35/11 K/BB in 19.2 IP) and jumped into Iowa's ultra talented weekend rotation alongside Brody Brecht (Rockies, CBA round) and Marcus Morgan (Phillies, 9th round). Head coach Rick Heller thought he was going to have to completely rebuild his rotation in 2025, so bringing back Obermueller is a happy surprise and a massive win. Back at school, the Iowa City native will look to prove to teams that he can stick in the rotation long term, rather than move back to the bullpen as many project. The fastball sits in the low 90's and reaches 97 in short stints with sinking and running action, while his sweeping slider dives across the plate and looks to be a plus pitch. Those two pitches right there, from an ultra low lefty sidearm slot no less, will be Obermueller's ticket to the big leagues in some capacity. However, he hasn't thrown his changeup much and his below average command regularly puts him behind in the count, so hitters are less willing to chase his quality stuff. Throw in that he's just 5'11", 160 pounds, and it's a pretty straightforward two pitch sidearm relief profile. Back on campus, Obermueller will have three boxes to check: bulk up, bring the changeup along, and throw more strikes. If he can do maybe two of those three things, someone will take a shot on him as a starter and the move to return to school will pay off. If not, it's a pretty nasty relief profile as is.

6. OF Harrison Didawick, Virginia (my rank: #152)
Undrafted
Harrison Didawick broke into the UVA lineup as a freshman but didn't hit much, then exploded in 2024 as his home run total jumped from 4 to 23 and his OPS jumped from .794 to 1.056. Still, concerns about his swing and miss tendencies kept teams from matching his high bonus demands, and he'll return to Charlottesville for his junior season, where he'll turn 22 shortly before the 2025 draft. Didawick stands out for his power, specifically his game power. Using a short left handed stroke, he has a quick trigger and ambushes pitches over the plate to send them out with great consistency, his 23 home runs last year tying Jake Gelof's (now with the Dodgers) one year old single season UVA home run record. The pure raw power is definitely closer to above average than plus, but the loft in his left handed swing and his natural ability to elevate the ball help him tap all of it. The hit tool, though, is a concern. He struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances in 2024 and came up empty on more than 30% of his swings, pointing to below average bat to ball ability. He's reasonably patient and walked in 14% of his plate appearances, a nice number, but pro pitching will attack him in the zone and it's not clear how consistently he'll be able to handle it at the upper levels and in MLB. With fringy to average defensive tools that will keep him in an outfield corner long term, potentially even left field, the pressure will be on his bat and for him to make much more consistent contact. He'll look to do just that at UVA in 2025, where he'll still be 21 through the College World Series (actually set to turn 22 the day after the championship).

7. OF Zack Stewart, Missouri State (my rank: #166)
Undrafted
The first mid-major prospect on this list, Zack Stewart not only spurned the draft but he'll actually return to Missouri State in the MVC, something becoming less and less common nowadays with power programs ravaging mid-major rosters through the transfer portal. Stewart, like Harrison Didawick, is a big time left handed power hitter and nearly matched his UVA counterpart with 22 home runs this year, but he generates that power very differently. While Didawick's power comes from his ability to loft the ball with authority, Stewart's comes from pure ferociousness. He has borderline-elite top-end exit velocities, regularly popping up over 110 MPH with electric bat speed and tremendous torque generated by his 6'2", 220 pound frame. When MVC pitchers leave the ball over the plate, he can pummel it out of any stadium to any field at any point. It's the kind of power that will certainly play with wood bats once he does move on to pro ball. Also like Didawick, swing and miss is a big problem. He also struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances in 2024 and ran swing and miss rates around 30%, just like Didawick, but in this case he was doing so against an MVC schedule as opposed to UVA's strong ACC schedule. Given the strength of the pitching he was facing, that's a big concern, and his struggles in the Cape Cod League last summer didn't help (.154/.233/.205, 34.9% K rate in eleven games). Stewart will return to Springfield hoping to cut down that strikeout rate, something he should be able to do without sacrificing power given how naturally he can rip the bat through the zone. The profile reminds me a bit of former Florida State slugger Elijah Cabell, a seventeenth round pick out of Florida State in 2021 who hit .160 over three years in the Cardinals system. Stewart does have the benefit of being left handed, and he's a year younger for his class than Cabell was with a chance to shore things up in his redshirt junior season in 2025. Again like Didawick, Stewart has fringy defensive tools and will wind up in an outfield corner.

8. SS Colby Shelton, Florida (my rank: #172)
Drafted – 20th round (pick #590), Washington Nationals
Colby Shelton, a South Carolina native who attended high school in the Tampa area, started his career at Alabama and earned Freshman All-American honors with a massive 2023 for the Crimson Tide. Coaching turbulence in Tuscaloosa led him to the transfer portal, where he was one of the most sought-after targets in the country and landed in Gainesville. Florida thought they'd only get him for one year, but while he started all 66 games at shortstop and blasted twenty home runs, swing and miss concerns kept teams from meeting his bonus demands and he'll return for his junior season. Though he'll be a true junior, he'll be the age of a college senior and will play the whole 2025 season at age-22. Shelton has average raw power, but he taps all of it in games with natural loft in his left handed swing. Though he's performed for two years against SEC schedules, blasting 45 home runs in 125 games, the approach is raw and hasn't always played up during those weekend SEC series. He's an aggressive hitter that regularly expands the zone, with below average bat to ball ability that led to a very high 26.4% strikeout rate in 2024 (up from 24.6% in 2023). That makes his overall offensive profile much closer to Harrison Didawick than Zack Stewart, though he's six-plus months older than those two and has lower top-end exit velocities. Shelton has played exclusively shortstop at Florida, though his slower feet and solid arm will likely push him to third base in pro ball, where he played at Alabama and at times on the Cape.

9. 1B Jared Jones, Louisiana State (my rank: #197)
Undrafted
Jared Jones was another famous prep to reach campus from the 2022 class, heading to Baton Rouge as a catcher. While the presence of better gloves like Hayden Travinski, Alex Milazzo, and Brady Neal meant that he never put the gear on in game action, he has carved out a name for himself as one of the premier power hitters in college baseball. After crushing fourteen home runs as a freshman in 2023, he doubled that total to 28 in 2024, tied for the seventh highest total in Division I (and third highest among underclassmen). Listed at 6'4", 255 pounds, it's not surprising to hear that Jones has a thunderous right handed bat that can drive balls out to all fields with ease (he did this as a freshman). Very few players had better top-end exit velocities than Zack Stewart, but one of them was Jones who showed 70 grade raw power. Already with 42 home runs under his belt in two seasons at LSU, he'll look to break 60 or even 70+ next year. Now while he continues the power theme, he also continues the swing and miss theme on this list. It might be a 30 grade hit tool as he whiffed on nearly 40% of his swings, an abysmal number, and struck out over a quarter of the time this year (and more than 30% of the time in SEC play and 35% on the Cape). The Atlanta-area native can get overwhelmed with premium stuff and lacks the barrel accuracy to make up for it. Now that he's moved off catcher and exclusively plays first base, where his heavy feet and below average speed fit best, there's much more pressure on his bat to play. Fortunately, he has so much power that he can send the ball out even when he gets fooled, and indeed 70 of his 118 hits for LSU over his career have gone for extra bases. He'll still be 21 on draft day next year and will look to spend 2025 cutting down the swing and miss to a stomache-ble number.

10. SS Jonathan Vastine, Vanderbilt (my rank: #202)
Undrafted
Jonathan Vastine continues the theme of former highly regarded prep prospects on this list, though he's not quite the power hitter of many names above him. He played sparingly as a Vanderbilt freshman in 2022 before taking the reins as the Dores' starting shortstop in 2023, which he has held down with solid results over the past two seasons sandwiched around a strong run through the Cape Cod League in 2023 (.323/.420/.430). Undersized at 5'11", 165 pounds, he whips the bat around pretty explosively for his size and can turn on the ball for average power to his pull side, though it's probably fringy overall. Throughout his career he has employed an approach of controlled aggression at the plate, which helped him hit well against elite pitching on the Cape as well as avoid a dip in his numbers in SEC play vs non-conference play in 2024. However, that approach unraveled at times this year and he surprised some evaluators by swinging and missing at more than a 30% clip, causing his strikeout rate to balloon over 25%. Even with his defensive value, he'll have to bring that number way down given his unremarkable power. Vastine is a strong shortstop with impressive instincts, range, and arm strength, even if he's not the most explosive defender on the dirt. That will enable him to be above average at second base, shortstop, or third base in pro ball, taking pressure off his bat as he eventually works his way up as a utility infielder. The underlying metrics on Vastine were not good in 2024 and teams noticed that, so back in Nashville he'll look to tighten things up and find a way to make more contact with a more sustainable approach at the plate. I still like the way the Florida native moves on both sides of the ball and he could be a nice senior sign next year if he makes the necessary adjustments.

Bonus: RHP Jaxon Jelkin, Houston -> ? (my rank: #134)
Drafted – 9th round (pick #263), New York Mets
Jaxon Jelkin went unsigned and would technically rank #5 on this list. There's not much information out there about his current situation, but I have a good general idea of the basics and I'll do my best to lay them out. Jelkin has bounced around a lot, beginning his career as a seldom-used reliever at Nebraska in 2022 but getting dismissed from the team two months into the season. He transferred to South Mountain JC in Phoenix for 2023 where the Dodgers drafted him in the fourteenth round, then headed to Houston in 2024. He looked sharp in seven starts for the Cougars, including a thirteen strikeout performance against BYU in March, but went down with Tommy John surgery and won't get back on the mound until mid-2025 at the earliest. The Mets drafted him in the ninth round regardless, but disputes over his medicals led to the team rescinding its offer. It's not clear what his next steps will be – he's not on Houston's 2025 roster, nor any other school's, and indications seem to be that he intends to sign as a free agent which hasn't happened yet. While everything else is a question mark, nobody doubts the arm talent. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 at peak, though it shows more running than riding life. He throws two breaking balls, led by an above average slider with sweep in addition to a solid two-plane curveball that he has leaned more and more on, and together he throws the breaking balls more than his fastball. His changeup shows excellent fade and got strong results for him in 2024, projecting as a potential above average pitch. The 6'5" righty is extremely projectable and brings great athleticism on the mound, with both his command and stuff trending in the right direction throughout his college career. If he can get healthy and build up his durability, he has legitimate MLB starting pitcher upside, and if he can find more movement on his fastball, he could be a true impact starter with four above average pitches. But questions about his makeup and medical situation may be what's keeping teams away.

Others
#213 OF Kendall Diggs, Arkansas
#215 1B Hunter Hines, Mississippi State