1-26: C Tyler Soderstrom, Turlock HS (CA)
2-58: RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan
3-98: OF Michael Guldberg, Georgia Tech
4-127: RHP Dane Acker, Oklahoma
5-157: RHP Stevie Emanuels, Washington
The A's probably weren't expecting Tyler Soderstrom to fall to them at 26th overall, and while he likely threw off their entire draft plan, they were more than likely to grab him. His true impact bat leads this class, while Jeff Criswell, Dane Acker, and Stevie Emanuels all bring something a little different to the mound. Criswell has now stuff but could use a little refinement, Acker more or less just is what he is, a safe bet #4/#5 starter, and Emanuels is a projection arm trending up. Aside from Soderstrom, the lone bat is Michael Guldberg, a money-saving pick who likely figures in as a fourth outfielder. The success of this class comes down to how much Soderstrom hits, though I personally see Emanuels as the under the radar x factor who could define the second through fifth picks.
Full index of team reviews here
1-26: C Tyler Soderstrom, Turlock HS, CA (my rank: 19)
Though they didn't get to pick until towards the end of the first round, the A's started off the draft with a bang, picking up Turlock High School catcher Tyler Soderstrom, a top twenty talent according to most. A semi-local kid who grew up in the Central Valley about an hour and a half west of the Coliseum, Soderstrom brings an exceptional bat that has been praised around the industry. Coming from a strong, 6'2" frame, he finds the barrel consistently and against very good competition with a strong left handed swing with plenty of loft. More recently, he's begun to grow into more power, taking that part of his game from average to safely above average, with potentially plus power projected. He gets a ton of leverage out of his frame and swing, driving the ball with authority to all fields, and his strength combined with his above average feel to hit enable scouts to be confident he'll tap that power in pro ball. His defense is behind his bat, as he's very athletic but hasn't quite refined his game behind the plate. If the A's are willing to work with those raw skills behind the plate and be patient, he could be one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, but the team may decide they want the bat sooner and decide not to worry about catching – especially with Sean Murphy in tow. Because of that athleticism, he could potentially handle third base or the outfield well, and he certainly has the bat to profile at any position. At his ceiling, he could project for as many as 25-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages, even at the spacious Coliseum. Committed to UCLA, he's going to be a very expensive sign, likely significantly over the $2.65 million slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
2-58: RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (my rank: 58)
Criswell ranked 58th on MLB Pipeline, 58th on my list, and went 58th overall, so I guess we're being consistent (Baseball America is the outlier, ranking him 53rd). He's been a consistent performer in some strong Michigan rotations, holding a 2.88 ERA and a 174/78 strikeout to walk ratio over 162.1 innings throughout his career in Ann Arbor. The repertoire is led by a mid 90's fastball with some armside tail that makes it hard to square up, and he also brings an above average slider and changeup. With a little bit of funky, but clean, arm action in the back, it can be hard to pick up his pitches out of his hands. However, he still has work to do on his control and command, as his mediocre strike throwing ability can hurt him at times and won't work in pro ball. The A's will hope to get him a little more consistent with his release point, because he has everything else he needs to start: a 6'4" frame, three above average pitches, and a good track record in a large conference. If he can get up to average command, he has the type of arsenal to effectively tunnel his pitches and have them make each other better. Slot value is $1.21 million here near the end of the second round, and I wouldn't be surprised if he took a slight discount. Pre-draft profile here.
3-98: OF Michael Guldberg, Georgia Tech (unranked)
If you like hit tools and on-base percentage (of course you do, you're an A's fan!), you're going to love this pick. Michael Guldberg is a career .374/.463/.459 hitter at Georgia Tech, striking out just 41 times in 104 games while drawing 44 walks. He's very much a singles hitter, with just 19 extra base hits in those 104 games, but he does an exceptional job poking line drives over infielders heads and going to all fields. He's more of a solid runner than a true plus speed guy, making him mostly just a one-dimensional player. Guldberg can handle center field or second base if needed, but he fits better in left. Overall, despite his uncanny ability to make solid contact, he's unlikely to end up a full time player down the road, with more of a fourth outfield projection. That said, you don't hit .374 over more than 100 games against an ACC schedule by accident, and with a June birthday, he's relatively young for a college junior. Slot value is $593,100, but he'll likely sign for significantly less as the A's work to reel in Soderstrom.
4-127: RHP Dane Acker, Oklahoma (unranked)
Dane Acker is much more of a right now product than a projection play. Hailing from the small town of Brenham, Texas, Acker moved from Rice to San Jacinto Community College to Oklahoma over the last three years and looked like he was finally finding his place when the season shut down. In his second to last start of the season, he tossed a complete game no-hitter against LSU, striking out eleven Tigers and thrusting himself onto draft radars. It's a pretty average four pitch mix overall, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding a curve, slider, and changeup. The curve is ahead of the slider, but he mixes all four effectively and maintains his stuff deep into games. Acker's command is above average, though his lack of a true out pitch means that any wavering of that command could sink a start. Case in point: after no-hitting LSU on March 1st, he allowed four runs on eight hits over 4.2 innings against San Diego State on March 8th, right before the shutdown. It's a pretty safe #4/#5 profile, and he could have some modest #3 upside if he sharpens his offspeeds a little or adds some velocity. Slot value is $447,400, though the A's will likely ask for another slight discount to afford Soderstrom.
5-157: RHP Stevie Emanuels, Washington (my rank: 105)
It's easy to love the Tyler Soderstrom pick, but aside from that one, this is by far my favorite pick of this draft for the A's. After a solid sophomore season at Washington (2.35 ERA, 65/22 K/BB), Emanuels was taking it to another level in 2020, holding down a 0.79 ERA and a 38/9 strikeout to walk ratio across 22.2 innings, with six of those nine walks coming in his first start of the season. He's a 6'5" righty with an extremely loose arm that has continued to add velocity, now sitting consistently in the low 90's while touching 96, and he rattles off a really sharp slider that can miss bats in bunches. There's a solid curveball that he's still working on differentiating from his slider, as well as a changeup, and he's been working in more two seam fastballs that show nice run. A pretty lanky dude, it seems like he's still growing into his body a bit, but his strike throwing has gotten better and now plays as solid average, with the chance to work towards above average in the future. I look at the arm action and frame and think this kid could continue to get better and better and better, with a huge ceiling in addition to a nice baseline of skills. He could be an impact starter, with a fallback of a fastball/slider reliever. Slot value is $333,300, but I'm not sure if they'll be able to save much here.
Undrafted: RHP Grant Judkins, Iowa: 2-0, 2.33 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 24/5 K/BB in 21 IP
Undrafted: C William Simoneit, Wake Forest: 3 HR, .377/.462/.642, 0 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 17 games
Undrafted: C Cooper Uhl, Loyola Marymount: 0 HR, .361/.487/.443, 5 SB, 8/14 K/BB in 16 games
With 25 more draft reviews to write, I don't have the bandwidth to research all of these guys, but off the bat it looks like these are older players (all at least 22 years old) who figure to be role players long term. Uhl (a California kid from Orange County) has no power to speak of but has a good eye at the plate, while Simoneit was hitting for more impact this year after transferring from Cornell to Wake Forest as a graduate student. Judkins was showing a sharper strikeout to walk ratio at Iowa.
Showing posts with label Jeff Criswell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeff Criswell. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 16, 2020
Friday, June 5, 2020
Spencer Torkelson vs Austin Martin: The 1-1 Discussion
Last year, the Orioles gave some thought to players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Andrew Vaughn, but for the most part, it was a forgone conclusion that they would select Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman first overall, and they did. In 2020, while Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson has emerged as the clear frontrunner, Vanderbilt infielder/outfielder Austin Martin remains very much in the conversation, and it's certainly an interesting one. You have two players who are similar enough to cleanly compare as fellow college position players, but different enough to contrast as guys with very different skill sets. With that, let's dive into what the thought process between these two could look like for the Tigers.
The Tigers' Position
Having to decide between two or more great players at 1-1 is a great problem to have. The current state of the system is very pitching-heavy, led by a "big three" of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal, with Mize having been the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. Now the MLB draft is very different from its NFL and NBA counterparts for a lot of reasons, but perhaps the biggest is this: you don't draft for need. If the Tigers believed the best player available was a pitcher like Asa Lacy or Emerson Hancock, they absolutely should have drafted one of the two, regardless of how pitching-heavy the system was. But the good news for the Tigers is that Torkelson and Martin are generally considered better players than Lacy and Hancock, so they can fill easily a need while still taking the best player available.
The Case for Spencer Torkelson
Position: 1B. 2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 15/31 K/BB.
My original profile written here
Spencer Torkelson has the best bat in the class, period. Over two-plus years at Arizona State, he cracked 54 home runs while slashing .337/.463/.729 with more walks (110) than strikeouts (104) across 129 games. The power is double plus, playing to all fields, against velocity and against good offspeed stuff, and with wood bats. The contact ability is plus as well, as Torkelson is adept at recognizing offspeed pitches, getting the barrel to the ball, and keeping his strikeouts down. There is no question that he is going to hit and hit for power in pro ball and in the majors. To boot, he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until August.
While Austin Martin is a no-doubt future plus hitter, Torkelson's bat is better. The quickest, easiest, and most robust way to get ROI on your top prospect is for him to hit, and Torkelson will do that. Martin is going to provide more defensive value, especially if he can stick at shortstop, but sometimes you just have to avoid the urge to get too cute and check all the boxes. There is a generational power prospect right there for the taking; just do it.
The Case for Austin Martin
Position: IF/OF. 2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 2/10 K/BB, 3 SB.
My original profile written here
Torkelson doesn't have a monopoly on the whole "being a special hitter" thing. Martin cut his strikeout rate from 16.8% as a freshman to 10.5% as a sophomore to a minuscule 2.9% as a junior – just two K's in sixteen games. Typically, that kind of contact is reserved for slap hitters or players who otherwise just kind of spray line drives around the field with little hope for double digit home run totals, but Martin doesn't fit that profile. He is a legitimate impact hitter who doesn't settle for weak contact, driving the ball with authority to all fields and over fences. He's hit 13 home runs in 81 games since the start of 2019, all while slashing .389/.490/.614 with just 36 strikeouts. While he doesn't project to be a true power hitter and certainly not Torkelson-esque in home run output, he should be good for anywhere from 15-25 home runs annually, all while putting up high on-base percentages in the .400 range. Alex Bregman had a remarkably similar profile in college, and he hit 41 home runs in 2019.
Martin is a hitting machine while also providing significantly more defensive value than Torkelson. Having watched Martin play various positions around the diamond, scouts have seen plenty to imply he could be an above average defender at shortstop. He has been surrounded by better defenders throughout his career, so he hasn't had the chance to prove it, but regardless, Martin will be providing value on both sides of the ball. Martin is the more well-rounded player, with a real chance of providing just as much offensive value as Torkelson with defense to boot. Don't let Torkelson's power distract from the fact that Martin is a special hitter who will have no trouble putting up big numbers against major league pitching with some speed to boot.
Other Options
LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M: The best pitcher in the class, Lacy is 14-5 with a 2.07 ERA and a 224/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings in his career at Texas A&M. He's big, he's mean, and he's left handed, which helps make his nasty four pitch mix play up with improving command to boot. Out of all the other options beyond Torkelson and Martin, Lacy seems like the "frontrunner among the dark horses" to go first overall. While that probably doesn't mean much given that the Tigers seem to be locking in on Tork, it is a testament to Lacy's immense upside combined with very little risk. Full profile here.
2B Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State: There are some that would argue that the only difference between Nick Gonzales and Austin Martin, at least offensively, is who they've played against. He is a career .399/.502/.747 hitter with 37 home runs and more walks (89) than strikeouts (79) in 128 games at New Mexico State. He hit .432/.532/.773 in 2019 then .448/.610/1.155 in 2020, and he also won the Cape Cod League MVP to prove his bat was for real. Still, the fact that he hasn't proved it day in and day out against SEC competition like Martin has, plus slightly worse defense, means that Martin remains a little bit ahead. His most likely landing spots are either the Royals at #4 or the Blue Jays at #5. Full profile here.
RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia: Hancock entered the 2020 season as an early favorite to go first overall, drawing comparisons to 2018 first overall pick Casey Mize after putting up a 1.99 ERA as a sophomore. His best attribute is his command, which helps his very good four pitch arsenal play up significantly. Not just a finesse pitcher, Hancock can hit 99 and all three of his offspeed pitches flash plus, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile. However, while the players listed above continued to push their stock forward this year, Hancock remained more or less in the same spot after a couple of up-and-down outings against Richmond and Georgia Tech, and some question his lack of a true, wipeout offspeed pitch. For that reason, he has fallen just behind Lacy, and he is perhaps equally likely to end up going anywhere from fourth to seventh overall. Full profile here.
OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS [FL]: Veen has steadily risen throughout the past calendar year, going from a fringe first rounder to a potential top ten pick to now having his name discussed as high as #4 to the Royals. The top high school prospect in the class, Veen has tremendous power projection in his 6'4" frame, with a beautiful left handed swing that figures to tap every bit of it without selling out. While he has shown some minor swing and miss concerns, they're not a huge deal and Veen's advanced plate discipline gives plenty of hope that they will never be an issue. Still, the college bats are much more proven than Veen and he would be a stretch for the Tigers at 1-1. Full profile here.
Michiganders for the Later Rounds
It's always fun to see guys go to their hometown team, and while no Michiganders are in the running for the first round at all (the closest geographically are Ed Howard of Chicago and Dillon Dingler of Massillon, Ohio), there is a lot of talent available for their later picks.
RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (hometown: Portage): Criswell is the top prospect among Michigan natives, a Portage native (near Kalamazoo) turned Wolverines starter. He holds a 2.88 ERA over three years in Ann Arbor and brings a solid three pitch mix highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a fading changeup. There have been some command questions and he hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, but with that three pitch mix, a 6'4" frame, and a track record in the Big Ten, he profiles as a solid second round arm. If he's still available for the Tigers' pick at #62, he could be a good fit. Full profile here.
OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (hometown: Ann Arbor): A graduate of Pioneer High School just down the road from Michigan's campus, Nwogu is actually on an academic scholarship for computer engineering, not an athletic one. That hasn't stopped him from being a career .334/.430/.545 hitter with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 125 games for the Wolverines, showing one of the better power/speed combinations in the class. He's big and athletic at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, though his swing is a bit awkward and he's fairly raw on both sides of the ball. He could come into play for the Tigers' picks at #102 and #132.
2B/C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (hometown: Southfield): A product of Groves High School between Southfield and Birmingham in the Detroit suburbs, Warren is a guy who has just hit and hit wherever he's gone. He slashed .363/.498/.571 with eight home runs as a sophomore at Central Michigan in 2019, then hit well on the Cape as well. He's actually kind of the opposite of Nwogu, as he doesn't have a ton of power or speed but he just steadily gets the job done. Warren is a very patient hitter who hits a lot of line drives and who could be a utility infielder or decent regular at the big league level. He also has a little bit of experience behind the plate, which could seriously boost his value if he ends up moving back there and sticking. Like Nwogu, he figures into picks #102 and #132 for Detroit.
RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (hometown: Cass City): The Thumb isn't known for producing a lot of baseball players, but Mason Erla has steadily risen from the small town of Cass City, about 50 miles northeast of Flint. A fairly unheralded recruit, he was solid but unspectacular over his first three years at Michigan State and went undrafted as a redshirt sophomore in 2019. That will change in 2020, as a huge uptick in his velocity helped him post a 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings this year. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider/changeup combination and throws strikes with all three, though on the down side he'll turn 23 in August and might be ticketed for relief. He joins Nwogu and Warren as being in play at #102 and #132.
LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson (hometown: Howell): Weatherly grew up in Howell, roughly halfway between Detroit and Lansing on I-96, but headed south to Clemson for college. He was a well-known recruit, but command issues kept him from really succeeding over his first two years with the Tigers. He still struggled to throw strikes in 2020, walking 14 in 22.2 innings, but he posted a 0.79 ERA and struck out 43 in that span and leapt up draft boards. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but his bread and butter is an exceptional slider that's among the best left handed breaking balls in the class. His command could push him to the bullpen if he doesn't start throwing more strikes, but even small improvements could make him a very effective starter. If the Tigers are going to grab him, he probably makes the most sense at pick #102 if he's still available.
OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (hometown: Temperance): We'll finish off with Joey Wiemer, who grew up in Temperance, just over the border from Toledo, Ohio. He headed down I-75 for school, and he's been a bit of a conundrum for scouts ever since. Standing 6'5" with long arms, long legs, and long hair, he's hard to miss on the baseball field. He sets up with an even more outlandish batting stance with lots of hand movement and bat wiggle, and it has contributed to an unremarkable .264/.379/.408 career line with twelve home runs and 35 stolen bases over 122 games for the Bearcats. He's shown pretty good plate discipline despite everything going on in his stance and swing, and the hope is that pro coaching could help him leap forward and reach his potential. He makes most sense at pick #132.
The Tigers' Position
Having to decide between two or more great players at 1-1 is a great problem to have. The current state of the system is very pitching-heavy, led by a "big three" of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal, with Mize having been the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. Now the MLB draft is very different from its NFL and NBA counterparts for a lot of reasons, but perhaps the biggest is this: you don't draft for need. If the Tigers believed the best player available was a pitcher like Asa Lacy or Emerson Hancock, they absolutely should have drafted one of the two, regardless of how pitching-heavy the system was. But the good news for the Tigers is that Torkelson and Martin are generally considered better players than Lacy and Hancock, so they can fill easily a need while still taking the best player available.
The Case for Spencer Torkelson
Position: 1B. 2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 15/31 K/BB.
My original profile written here
Spencer Torkelson has the best bat in the class, period. Over two-plus years at Arizona State, he cracked 54 home runs while slashing .337/.463/.729 with more walks (110) than strikeouts (104) across 129 games. The power is double plus, playing to all fields, against velocity and against good offspeed stuff, and with wood bats. The contact ability is plus as well, as Torkelson is adept at recognizing offspeed pitches, getting the barrel to the ball, and keeping his strikeouts down. There is no question that he is going to hit and hit for power in pro ball and in the majors. To boot, he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until August.
While Austin Martin is a no-doubt future plus hitter, Torkelson's bat is better. The quickest, easiest, and most robust way to get ROI on your top prospect is for him to hit, and Torkelson will do that. Martin is going to provide more defensive value, especially if he can stick at shortstop, but sometimes you just have to avoid the urge to get too cute and check all the boxes. There is a generational power prospect right there for the taking; just do it.
The Case for Austin Martin
Position: IF/OF. 2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 2/10 K/BB, 3 SB.
My original profile written here
Torkelson doesn't have a monopoly on the whole "being a special hitter" thing. Martin cut his strikeout rate from 16.8% as a freshman to 10.5% as a sophomore to a minuscule 2.9% as a junior – just two K's in sixteen games. Typically, that kind of contact is reserved for slap hitters or players who otherwise just kind of spray line drives around the field with little hope for double digit home run totals, but Martin doesn't fit that profile. He is a legitimate impact hitter who doesn't settle for weak contact, driving the ball with authority to all fields and over fences. He's hit 13 home runs in 81 games since the start of 2019, all while slashing .389/.490/.614 with just 36 strikeouts. While he doesn't project to be a true power hitter and certainly not Torkelson-esque in home run output, he should be good for anywhere from 15-25 home runs annually, all while putting up high on-base percentages in the .400 range. Alex Bregman had a remarkably similar profile in college, and he hit 41 home runs in 2019.
Martin is a hitting machine while also providing significantly more defensive value than Torkelson. Having watched Martin play various positions around the diamond, scouts have seen plenty to imply he could be an above average defender at shortstop. He has been surrounded by better defenders throughout his career, so he hasn't had the chance to prove it, but regardless, Martin will be providing value on both sides of the ball. Martin is the more well-rounded player, with a real chance of providing just as much offensive value as Torkelson with defense to boot. Don't let Torkelson's power distract from the fact that Martin is a special hitter who will have no trouble putting up big numbers against major league pitching with some speed to boot.
Other Options
LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M: The best pitcher in the class, Lacy is 14-5 with a 2.07 ERA and a 224/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings in his career at Texas A&M. He's big, he's mean, and he's left handed, which helps make his nasty four pitch mix play up with improving command to boot. Out of all the other options beyond Torkelson and Martin, Lacy seems like the "frontrunner among the dark horses" to go first overall. While that probably doesn't mean much given that the Tigers seem to be locking in on Tork, it is a testament to Lacy's immense upside combined with very little risk. Full profile here.
2B Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State: There are some that would argue that the only difference between Nick Gonzales and Austin Martin, at least offensively, is who they've played against. He is a career .399/.502/.747 hitter with 37 home runs and more walks (89) than strikeouts (79) in 128 games at New Mexico State. He hit .432/.532/.773 in 2019 then .448/.610/1.155 in 2020, and he also won the Cape Cod League MVP to prove his bat was for real. Still, the fact that he hasn't proved it day in and day out against SEC competition like Martin has, plus slightly worse defense, means that Martin remains a little bit ahead. His most likely landing spots are either the Royals at #4 or the Blue Jays at #5. Full profile here.
RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia: Hancock entered the 2020 season as an early favorite to go first overall, drawing comparisons to 2018 first overall pick Casey Mize after putting up a 1.99 ERA as a sophomore. His best attribute is his command, which helps his very good four pitch arsenal play up significantly. Not just a finesse pitcher, Hancock can hit 99 and all three of his offspeed pitches flash plus, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile. However, while the players listed above continued to push their stock forward this year, Hancock remained more or less in the same spot after a couple of up-and-down outings against Richmond and Georgia Tech, and some question his lack of a true, wipeout offspeed pitch. For that reason, he has fallen just behind Lacy, and he is perhaps equally likely to end up going anywhere from fourth to seventh overall. Full profile here.
OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS [FL]: Veen has steadily risen throughout the past calendar year, going from a fringe first rounder to a potential top ten pick to now having his name discussed as high as #4 to the Royals. The top high school prospect in the class, Veen has tremendous power projection in his 6'4" frame, with a beautiful left handed swing that figures to tap every bit of it without selling out. While he has shown some minor swing and miss concerns, they're not a huge deal and Veen's advanced plate discipline gives plenty of hope that they will never be an issue. Still, the college bats are much more proven than Veen and he would be a stretch for the Tigers at 1-1. Full profile here.
Michiganders for the Later Rounds
It's always fun to see guys go to their hometown team, and while no Michiganders are in the running for the first round at all (the closest geographically are Ed Howard of Chicago and Dillon Dingler of Massillon, Ohio), there is a lot of talent available for their later picks.
RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (hometown: Portage): Criswell is the top prospect among Michigan natives, a Portage native (near Kalamazoo) turned Wolverines starter. He holds a 2.88 ERA over three years in Ann Arbor and brings a solid three pitch mix highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a fading changeup. There have been some command questions and he hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, but with that three pitch mix, a 6'4" frame, and a track record in the Big Ten, he profiles as a solid second round arm. If he's still available for the Tigers' pick at #62, he could be a good fit. Full profile here.
OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (hometown: Ann Arbor): A graduate of Pioneer High School just down the road from Michigan's campus, Nwogu is actually on an academic scholarship for computer engineering, not an athletic one. That hasn't stopped him from being a career .334/.430/.545 hitter with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 125 games for the Wolverines, showing one of the better power/speed combinations in the class. He's big and athletic at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, though his swing is a bit awkward and he's fairly raw on both sides of the ball. He could come into play for the Tigers' picks at #102 and #132.
2B/C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (hometown: Southfield): A product of Groves High School between Southfield and Birmingham in the Detroit suburbs, Warren is a guy who has just hit and hit wherever he's gone. He slashed .363/.498/.571 with eight home runs as a sophomore at Central Michigan in 2019, then hit well on the Cape as well. He's actually kind of the opposite of Nwogu, as he doesn't have a ton of power or speed but he just steadily gets the job done. Warren is a very patient hitter who hits a lot of line drives and who could be a utility infielder or decent regular at the big league level. He also has a little bit of experience behind the plate, which could seriously boost his value if he ends up moving back there and sticking. Like Nwogu, he figures into picks #102 and #132 for Detroit.
RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (hometown: Cass City): The Thumb isn't known for producing a lot of baseball players, but Mason Erla has steadily risen from the small town of Cass City, about 50 miles northeast of Flint. A fairly unheralded recruit, he was solid but unspectacular over his first three years at Michigan State and went undrafted as a redshirt sophomore in 2019. That will change in 2020, as a huge uptick in his velocity helped him post a 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings this year. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider/changeup combination and throws strikes with all three, though on the down side he'll turn 23 in August and might be ticketed for relief. He joins Nwogu and Warren as being in play at #102 and #132.
LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson (hometown: Howell): Weatherly grew up in Howell, roughly halfway between Detroit and Lansing on I-96, but headed south to Clemson for college. He was a well-known recruit, but command issues kept him from really succeeding over his first two years with the Tigers. He still struggled to throw strikes in 2020, walking 14 in 22.2 innings, but he posted a 0.79 ERA and struck out 43 in that span and leapt up draft boards. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but his bread and butter is an exceptional slider that's among the best left handed breaking balls in the class. His command could push him to the bullpen if he doesn't start throwing more strikes, but even small improvements could make him a very effective starter. If the Tigers are going to grab him, he probably makes the most sense at pick #102 if he's still available.
OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (hometown: Temperance): We'll finish off with Joey Wiemer, who grew up in Temperance, just over the border from Toledo, Ohio. He headed down I-75 for school, and he's been a bit of a conundrum for scouts ever since. Standing 6'5" with long arms, long legs, and long hair, he's hard to miss on the baseball field. He sets up with an even more outlandish batting stance with lots of hand movement and bat wiggle, and it has contributed to an unremarkable .264/.379/.408 career line with twelve home runs and 35 stolen bases over 122 games for the Bearcats. He's shown pretty good plate discipline despite everything going on in his stance and swing, and the hope is that pro coaching could help him leap forward and reach his potential. He makes most sense at pick #132.
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Jeff Criswell
RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/10/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 26/9 K/BB in 24 IP
Michigan made its surprise run to the College World Series finals in 2019 largely on the backs of an excellent weekend rotation. Their top two starters, Tommy Henry (74th overall, Diamondbacks) and Karl Kauffman (77th overall, Rockies), went three picks apart in the draft, but their #3 starter, Jeff Criswell, has a chance to beat them both. In that stacked rotation, it was Criswell who led the team in ERA at 2.72, and his 116 strikeouts were second only to Henry's 135. However, his 50 walks also led the team, and that inconsistency has spilled over a bit into 2020. After posting a very respectable 3.38 ERA and 22/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, he had four very up and down starts that left him with a 4.50 ERA this year. He held his own against a very strong Vanderbilt lineup, got knocked around a bit by Connecticut, dominated Cal Poly, then finished with an okay start against Pepperdine.
Criswell has most of what it takes to be a successful professional starting pitcher right now. His fastball sits in the mid 90's, touching as high as 97 regularly, and he can get good movement on it as well. He adds in a good slider that has missed plenty of bats in college, and his changeup is relatively advanced with some nice fading action. His three pitch mix plays up because it can be hard to track the ball coming out his hand, with a pretty wide range of movement in his delivery. The delivery itself is mechanically sound and pretty straightforward, it's just the long arm action that moves hitters' eyes around a lot.
The concern with Criswell is command and consistency. The stuff is loud, but it's not that loud, and he can get hit around quite a bit when he starts falling behind in counts or lets his offspeed stuff lose their sharpness. In order to start at the next level, Criswell needs to get more consistent with either the stuff or the command, but preferably both. On an interesting side note, he is one of two Michigan Wolverines with top-100 aspirations, and the other, Jordan Nwogu, was born on the exact same day (3/10/1999).
Criswell is pretty close to putting it all together, and some pro coaching might be all he needs to harness his three pitch mix and become and impact big league starter. The velocity of course stands out, but the slider and changeup are both very good pitches when they're on and his durable, 6'4" frame lends itself very well to starting. If he can't get everything figured out and stick as a starter, his stuff would play well out of the bullpen, giving him some floor to fall back on. It's a pretty clear second round profile, and he could be drafted anywhere from the early second to the early third round.
2019 start vs Oklahoma State (he struck out a career-high 12 that day)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/10/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 26/9 K/BB in 24 IP
Michigan made its surprise run to the College World Series finals in 2019 largely on the backs of an excellent weekend rotation. Their top two starters, Tommy Henry (74th overall, Diamondbacks) and Karl Kauffman (77th overall, Rockies), went three picks apart in the draft, but their #3 starter, Jeff Criswell, has a chance to beat them both. In that stacked rotation, it was Criswell who led the team in ERA at 2.72, and his 116 strikeouts were second only to Henry's 135. However, his 50 walks also led the team, and that inconsistency has spilled over a bit into 2020. After posting a very respectable 3.38 ERA and 22/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, he had four very up and down starts that left him with a 4.50 ERA this year. He held his own against a very strong Vanderbilt lineup, got knocked around a bit by Connecticut, dominated Cal Poly, then finished with an okay start against Pepperdine.
Criswell has most of what it takes to be a successful professional starting pitcher right now. His fastball sits in the mid 90's, touching as high as 97 regularly, and he can get good movement on it as well. He adds in a good slider that has missed plenty of bats in college, and his changeup is relatively advanced with some nice fading action. His three pitch mix plays up because it can be hard to track the ball coming out his hand, with a pretty wide range of movement in his delivery. The delivery itself is mechanically sound and pretty straightforward, it's just the long arm action that moves hitters' eyes around a lot.
The concern with Criswell is command and consistency. The stuff is loud, but it's not that loud, and he can get hit around quite a bit when he starts falling behind in counts or lets his offspeed stuff lose their sharpness. In order to start at the next level, Criswell needs to get more consistent with either the stuff or the command, but preferably both. On an interesting side note, he is one of two Michigan Wolverines with top-100 aspirations, and the other, Jordan Nwogu, was born on the exact same day (3/10/1999).
Criswell is pretty close to putting it all together, and some pro coaching might be all he needs to harness his three pitch mix and become and impact big league starter. The velocity of course stands out, but the slider and changeup are both very good pitches when they're on and his durable, 6'4" frame lends itself very well to starting. If he can't get everything figured out and stick as a starter, his stuff would play well out of the bullpen, giving him some floor to fall back on. It's a pretty clear second round profile, and he could be drafted anywhere from the early second to the early third round.
2019 start vs Oklahoma State (he struck out a career-high 12 that day)
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