2022 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

The Marlins are one of the better organizations out there when it comes to pitching development and really struggle with hitters. So naturally, they drafted a near-finished product with the bat in the first round then proceeded to take eleven consecutive pitchers in rounds 2-12, highlighted by two expensive high schoolers at the top and a slew of power college arms. I don't love the final list of names here, and I really didn't like the Jacob Berry pick to start things off. They prioritized velocity and feel for spin here, and did pick up a very interesting sleeper in twelfth rounder Cole Kirschsieper.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-6: 3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State. My rank: #18.
Slot value: $6.04 million. Signing bonus: $6 million ($37,500 below slot value).
I'll be honest, of all the picks in the first round, this one left me scratching my head the most even if it wasn't necessarily a surprise. Brooks Lee (#5 on my board) has a very similar profile to Jacob Berry (#18 on my board) except that he hits for even more power and provides much more value on defense, and he was still available here and wound up signing for $300,000 less. Obviously teams look for different things from players and I'm never going to call my board the gospel, but these players being so similar and Lee clearly being better at the same things is just odd to me. If Berry goes on to have a significantly better career than Lee, I can eat my words. Anyways, let's talk about Jacob Berry. He originally began his career at Arizona, where he put up a monster freshman season slashing .352/.439/.676 with 17 home runs, then transferred to LSU as a sophomore. The SEC proved to be no problem for the Phoenix-area native, as he slashed .370/.464/.630 with 15 home runs and a 22/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games as a draft-eligible sophomore whose May birthday makes him the age of a college junior. Berry is a switch hitter, built like a boulder full of solid muscle at 6', 210 pounds. He takes a very simple, direct hack from both sides of the plate with excellent pitch recognition and feel for the barrel. After running a solid 19.5% strikeout rate as a freshman last year, he cut that to 8.9% this spring as he just barreled up everything he saw. Despite the build, he's actually a hit-over-power guy that thrives by his ability to find the barrel. He does not boast the elite top-end exit velocities you typically see at the top of the draft, especially as a first baseman, relying on a high quantity of hard hit balls rather than absolutely crushing it here and there. That means he'll probably move pretty quickly through the minors and he could be up as soon as next season, with the potential to hit 20+ home runs a year with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he manned third base for LSU this spring but probably profiles as a first baseman going forward, with clunky actions at the hot corner and an arm that might be a little bit light. There is also a chance he could crack it in left field. Regardless, he will provide value with his bat and should hit enough to play every day no matter where he winds up. It's a very solid mid to late first round profile, but the Marlins are really, really banking on his above average raw power showing up with wood bats to pick him in the top ten without a discount. So far, he's slashing .230/.327/.333 with two home runs and an 18/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter. 

2-46: RHP Jacob Miller, Liberty Union HS [OH]. My rank: #39.
Slot value: $1.7 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million.
I like this pick a lot better, and I'm surprised the Marlins didn't have to go above slot value to sign Jacob Miller away from that Louisville commitment. A second to third round pick heading into the season, he had a fantastic spring that pushed him into late first round conversations, but lasted until the Marlins in the early second round. He saw a velocity bump this spring and sat in the low to mid 90's, touching as high as 99, but he stands out most for his feel for spin. Miller throws a nasty, plus curveball with wicked two-plane bite in addition to a tighter, firmer slider that looks above average and a solid changeup with some run. The 6'2" righty pounds the strike zone with solid average command for a teenager, with a durable frame that should lend itself well to starting. He's not the greatest athlete on the mound, but the present stuff combined with the size and command are plenty enough to over look that. Expect him to miss a ton of bats in the low minors with that power arsenal, and he could be a very solid #3 starter for Miami in time. The central Ohio native should thrive in this system, and here is some really good video giving a taste of what Marlins fans are in for. So far through three short Florida Complex League starts, he has a has allowed five runs (three earned) with three strikeouts to two walks over 3.2 innings.

3-85: RHP Karson Milbrandt, Liberty HS [MO]. My rank: #91.
Slot value: $747,100. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($752,900 above slot value).
39 picks later, Karson Milbrandt got nearly as much to sign away from his Vanderbilt commitment as Miller did from his Louisville commitment. Milbrandt from Liberty, like Miller from Liberty Union, had a strong spring that moved him up about a round or so. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, a couple ticks behind Miller, but he does get much more life on the pitch with huge spin rates and plenty of running action. His slider and curveball took a step forward this spring and both now flash above average, while his changeup is inconsistent but solid. Milbrandt comes from a low three quarters slot that makes for a very deceptive look, making for a very enticing profile that the Marlins can get creative with. There is plenty of projection in his 6'2" frame and he moves well on the mound, though there is some work to be done to remain a starter. For now, he sometimes struggles to repeat his release point and shows fringy command, which does point to some relief risk. His offspeed stuff taking a step forward does help in that regard, though. If the Marlins can get the Kansas City-area native more consistent with his mechanics and help that offspeed stuff continue on the positive trend it was on, they could have a really interesting arm on their hands.

4-112: RHP Marcus Johnson, Duke. My rank: #152.
Slot value: $543,800. Signing bonus: $510,000 ($33,800 below slot value).
Moving on to the college ranks, the Marlins believe they're buying low on Marcus Johnson, who was in the second round conversation entering the season. He was excellent out of the Duke bullpen as a sophomore last year, with a 3.05 ERA and a 59/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings, then transitioned to the rotation this year with mixed results. His ERA ballooned to 5.61 while he ran a still-solid 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings, that K rate dipping slightly from 26.5% to 23.8% while his walk rate rose slightly from 5.4% to 7.8%. His fastball touches 97 in short stints but sat more in the low 90's as a starter, coming in with nice riding action that helps it play a little above that velocity when located. He snapped off a plus slider out of the bullpen that looked more above average as a starter, also adding in a solid changeup. With a big, projectable 6'5" frame and a repeatable, short arm delivery that helps him pound the strike zone, he does have what it takes to start even with the more ordinary stuff. Even in the starting role, he did show flashes of that true bat missing stuff and the Marlins believe they can get him showing it more consistently even in those extended outings, which could make him a #3 starter if it all works out. If he does move back to the bullpen, the Southern California native has already proven he can thrive off that fastball/slider combination while controlling at bats and overpowering hitters. So far, he has allowed four runs over 4.1 innings with five strikeouts to four walks in the Florida Complex League.

5-142: RHP Josh White, California. My rank: #200.
Slot value: $406,500. Signing bonus: $406,500.
The Marlins went back to the college ranks in the fifth round to pick up another power arm, taking Josh White out of Cal. He was great as a sophomore in 2021 with a 2.79 ERA and an 81/25 strikeout to walk ratio, but took a step back as a junior with a 5.05 ERA and a 91/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings. White sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can reach back for up to 97, coming in with steep angle and some minor running action. He shows feel to spin a breaking ball, flashing above average with both his slider and curveball at his best. The San Francisco Bay Area native does add a changeup, but it's a fourth pitch for now that he doesn't have much feel for. With an upright delivery and average athleticism, he doesn't move as well on the mound as perhaps a guy like Karson Milbrandt or Marcus Johnson, and his command is very inconsistent. The Marlins are buying the arm strength on a guy who has flashes serious bat missing stuff at his best and has thrived at times in the Pac-12, combined with that great feel for spin. The 6'1" righty doesn't come with a ton of projection but could work in as a back-end starter or a breaking ball-heavy reliever, and increased velocity on his fastball could help make up for its lack of life. So far, he has allowed four runs through four innings in the Florida Complex League, striking out six while walking three.

6-172: RHP Jared Poland, Louisville. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $306,400. Signing bonus: $149,000 ($157,400 below slot value).
Jared Poland is the first big money saver to help afford Karson Milbrandt, but he still brings value in his own right. A two-way player early in his Louisville career, he gave up hitting after his sophomore season and saw his pitching take a step forward as a result. 2022 was his best year yet, where he posted a 3.46 ERA and a 103/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, but it plays below its velocity because he puts steep angle on it with average life. Poland makes his money on his offspeed pitches, including an above average slider with deep bite and a solid average changeup. The 6' righty locates his stuff well and loves to go right after hitters, helping his stuff play up further except when his fastball catches too much plate. A senior sign that will turn 23 this offseason, the Marlins will want him to move a little quicker and he may fit best in a bullpen role, where he can pitch off his offspeed stuff and add a tick to that generic fastball. It's not too dissimilar a profile to Josh White a pick earlier, except that he's a year older with better command. He has thrown 2.2 shutout innings so far in the Florida Complex League, striking out two and walking three.

12-352: LHP Cole Kirschsieper, Illinois. My rank: #186.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
This pick could be a very interesting sleeper, especially in an organization that develops pitching as well as the Marlins do. Cole Kirschsieper rose to prominence with a flat out incredible run through last summer, in which he played in the Appalachian League, with the US Collegiate National Team, and in the Cape Cod League, where he regularly faced elite competition. Between the three, he allowed just one earned run over 36 innings (0.25 ERA) and struck out 54 against 17 walks, putting himself firmly on my radar entering the season. While he couldn't quite build off that success, he was still solid at Illinois this spring and posted a 3.17 ERA and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings. Kirschsieper doesn't throw all that hard, sitting around 90 and touching 93, so he'll need to add velocity. The slider is average with some sweeping action, while his above average changeup misses bats and keeps hitters off balance. The 5'11" lefty comes from a deceptive, low three quarters slot that makes all of his stuff play up, working east-west and commanding everything pretty well. He does not presently throw hard enough to get major league hitters out, so adding at least a tick of velocity if not a little more will be very important. Beyond that, sharpening his offspeed pitches would be useful, but they're playable now. If the Chicago-area native moves to the bullpen, he has enough life on his fastball to play well with only a small uptick to perhaps 91-93 as opposed to the 89-91 he sits around now being very useful. Despite being on the smaller side, I would like to see how he can play in the rotation for now. He's looked good so far, with three shutout innings in the Florida Complex League with four strikeouts and no walks.

14-412: 1B Torin Montgomery, Missouri. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $75,000.
The Marlins drafted Torin Montgomery in the 35th round out of high school in 2019, and three years later they got their guy. He began his college career at Boise State but transferred to Missouri after one season, and in 2022 he caught fire at the plate, slashing .362/.456/.542 with seven home runs and a 37/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. Big and strong at 6'3", 230 pounds, he can really smoke a baseball with the best of them, showing plus raw power in the tank although he doesn't tap it very often. For now, he hits the ball on the ground too much and doesn't elevate with as much authority as he's capable of, so working on getting more loft into his swing will be important in his development. Not just a pure slugger, Montgomery makes a lot of contact from the right side and rarely swings and misses, though he can be a tad aggressive. It's a very enticing bat with the right development, and he'll have to hit because he's limited to first base defensively. The Seattle-area native doesn't run all that well and looks like a potential platoon/bench bat in the future. So far, he's slashing .259/.341/.407 with two home runs and a 23/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter.

16-472: SS Brett Roberts, Florida State. My rank: #217.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
The Marlins finally came home to the Sunshine State in the sixteenth round, grabbing Brett Roberts out of Florida State. Roberts is not a native Floridian, having grown up in Atlanta and beginning his college career at Tennessee Tech, but he adjusted very well to Tallahassee and the ACC slate to land himself in the sixteenth round. In 2022, he slashed .300/.372/.461 with five home runs and a 36/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, holding down an everyday role for the Seminoles. A pro hitter, he makes a ton of contact from the right side and struck out in just 14.5% of his plate appearances, regularly putting the ball in play and making the defense work. He uses the whole field and hits it where they ain't, but the overall impact is a question. He produces unremarkable exit velocities and I rarely see him turn on the ball, so most of his power will come to the gaps. An above average runner, he can play all over the field and projects as a solid utility infielder, showing plenty enough range and arm strength to give you confidence at shortstop. He's off to a hot start in the Florida Complex League, slashing .256/.333/.488 with three home runs and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games.

19-562: C Carmine Lane, South Florida. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unspecified.
Carmine Lane represents the one and only player from South Florida in the Marlins' draft class. A native of Lake Worth about sixty miles north of downtown Miami, he attended American Heritage High School in Delray Beach before matriculating north to USF in Tampa. He has gotten better and better each year there, including a huge 2022 in which he slashed .332/.390/.523 with ten home runs and a 38/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He takes huge, healthy hacks from the right side that help him really stroke the ball to the pull side, but he still ran a solid 14.3% strikeout rate with strong bat to ball skills. He may need to tone down his approach just a little bit as he moves from the AAC to pro ball, but his combination of leverage and bat to ball skills aren't easy to find in the second to last round of the draft. Interestingly, the Marlins drafted him as a catcher despite having played every single position on the diamond except catcher for USF, even pitching 2.1 innings as a freshman. I'm not entirely sure what Miami intends to do with him defensively, but he played mostly third base for the Bulls and showed off a strong arm that would work well behind the plate. He's hitless with three strikeouts in six at bats so far in the Florida Complex League, but has drawn two walks.

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the SEC

2021 draftees: 68. Top school: Arkansas (9)
2021 preseason writeup (published 11/7/2020)

Top draftees:
1-2, Rangers: RHP Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt)
1-10, Mets: RHP Kumar Rocker (Vanderbilt)
1-14, Giants: RHP Will Bednar (Mississippi State)
1-19, Blue Jays: RHP Gunnar Hoglund (Mississippi)
2-40, Red Sox: OF Jud Fabian (Florida)
2-42, Diamondbacks: SS Ryan Bliss (Auburn)
2-44, Rockies: RHP Jaden Hill (Louisiana State)

Beyond hosting both College World Series final teams in Mississippi State, the SEC continued to show why it is college baseball's premier conference in 2021 by leading the way with 68 players drafted. Every team in the league had multiple players selected while five different schools saw at least seven players go in the draft. Meanwhile, Arkansas tied with Texas Tech for the second most players drafted of any individual school with nine, behind only UCLA's ten.

The SEC has always been known for premier pitching, with Vanderbilt righty Jack Leiter earning the largest signing bonus of any player in the draft and four pitchers going in the top nineteen picks a year ago. In 2022, however, the pendulum looks to have swung slightly to the position player side, with a deluge of big bats all jostling for position in the first round. By my count, I see about twelve players who are in a very good position to go in the first round, and while of course that won't be the case come July, it bodes well for the conference's chances of matching or bettering last year's mark of four first round draftees. The depth here is really impressive, and beyond the top couple of names, I really feel bad ranking any of these players outside of the top five and I see very little separation between the top and bottom of the list, which I extended to twelve after doing ten for the other conferences. One interesting trend I noticed was size, as the twelve players on the list average less than 6'1" in height and Hunter Barco (6'4"), the last player on the list, is the only one above 6'2". Not typical for a conference like this one.

1. 3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6', 210 lbs. Born 5/5/2001. Hometown: Queen Creek, AZ.
2021: 17 HR, .352/.439/.676, 2 SB, 58/33 K/BB in 63 games.
LSU made a huge splash by hiring away Arizona head coach Jay Johnson this summer, and that move paid immediate dividends when all-everything slugger Jacob Berry decided to follow his coach across the country on Interstate 10. As a true freshman last spring (albeit the age of a sophomore), he was one of the best hitters in the entire country and served as the centerpiece to arguably college baseball's best lineup, slugging the Wildcats to their first College World Series appearance since 2016. He then cranked it up another notch with the US Collegiate National Team, slashing .387/.475/.871 with four home runs in eleven games against arguably the best amateur competition in the country. Berry may only be six feet tall, on the shorter side for a slugger, but he packs as much strength into that smaller frame as you could possibly expect. He trusts that strength and utilizes a simple, direct swing from both sides of the plate to tap into easy plus raw power very consistently in games, never having to sell out or swing out of his shoes to get there. The Phoenix-area product is a patient hitter that draws his walks and keeps his strikeouts to a reasonable level, and he's completely unfazed by high-end velocity and offspeed stuff. There is no doubt that Berry will handle the slight jump in competition from the Pac-12 to the SEC, and very few have any concerns about his ability to continue to produce at a high level immediately in pro ball once he's drafted. The bat will be the carrying tool, because he's a below average defender at third base with a choppy glove that may end up having to move to first base. He'll have plenty of bat to profile at first, but as a decent athlete with better mobility than you'd expect for his frame, a team may be able to run him out at the hot corner if they're patient and prioritize development in that part of his game. Regardless, offensive production is what earns the big bucks and he has it in spades, and between Berry (.352/.439/.676, 17 HR), Dylan Crews (.362/.453/.663, 18 HR), Cade Doughty (.308/.368/.546, 13 HR), Gavin Dugas (.295/.407/.641, 19 HR), and Tre' Morgan (.357/.441/.526, 6 HR), you'll be hard pressed to find a more intimidating lineup in 2022 than the one in Baton Rouge.

2. SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6', 180 lbs. Born 1/24/2001. Hometown: Selah, WA.
2021: 16 HR, .252/.341/.559, 9 SB, 84/31 K/BB in 61 games.
Jacob Berry has been a more consistent hitter to this point in his career, so I have him as the number one prospect in the conference, but Carter Young has the higher ceiling and probably a better chance to break through and earn a number one overall selection. An immediate contributor in his shortened freshman season in 2020 (.328/.373/.377), he carried that success over into the 2021 season and was one of the SEC's more dynamic players for much of the season, but he injured his shoulder in May and when he returned a few weeks later, he didn't look like the same player. The post-injury slump hurt his overall numbers and he finished with over a 30% strikeout rate, but after taking the summer off to rest and heal, his proponents expect huge things in 2022. Young, like Berry, is a switch hitter with power from both sides of the plate, taking healthy, uppercut hacks that really help him channel his lean strength into useable game power. The swing can get big at times, but when he's going right he's an extremely tough out that is equally willing to take you deep or slap a line drive the other way. There has always been swing and miss in his game, an issue exacerbated by the injury, but the hope is that a healthy 2022 combined with another year of development can help get that under control. On the flip side, the Washington state product is an above average defender who will definitely stick at shortstop, with a plus arm and plenty of range to positively impact the game with his glove. Teams love up the middle athletes early in the draft, and Vanderbilt is no stranger to producing that kind of talent between shortstop Dansby Swanson (first overall, 2015) and utility man Austin Martin (fifth overall, 2020). Young is a better defender than Martin and has more power than both, so how high he goes in 2022 ultimately hinges on the consistency of his hit tool.

3. RHP Peyton Pallette, Arkansas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 175 lbs. Born 5/9/2001. Hometown: Benton, AR.
2021: 1-2, 4.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 67/20 K/BB in 56 innings.
The first time I heard Peyton Pallette's name was a roller coaster day and I wrote about it here. Having no idea who he was, I watched him start off an extremely experienced and disciplined top of the Texas lineup six up, six down for two innings, never throwing a fastball under 95 and striking out the last two (Big 12 #6 prospect Trey Faltine and 2021 #196 overall prospect Ivan Melendez) on six consecutive fastballs. The dude just blew me away. After that sensational season opening start, he went on to have some ups and downs including rough starts against Alabama (1 IP, 4 ER) and Ole Miss (4 IP, 7 ER), but he showed enough to stand firm as the top pitching prospect in the best conference in baseball. Pallette sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, tops out around 97, and gets tremendous ride on the pitch that just seems to explode onto hitters. He adds a plus-plus curveball with elite spin rates that looks to be one of the best breaking balls in the entire class, just crashing down on hitters as if it was spiked like a volleyball. To this point, the Little Rock-area native doesn't use his changeup as much and it's a below average pitch, so that will certainly be a point of development in 2022 and beyond. Despite standing a skinny 6'1", he's a strong kid that holds his velocity deep into starts through a low effort delivery, portending to a safe bet future in the rotation. Pallette often shows above average command but can get hit when he falls behind in the count or grooves one over the plate, so just a bit more consistency in that regard will be another thing to work on if he wants to be the first pitcher off the board on draft day. Relatively young for the class with a May birthday and younger than true sophomore Jacob Berry, there's as much talent in his right arm as anyone in college baseball and he looks the part of a high ceiling ace with some minor smoothing out of the edges in his game. The fastball/curveball combination is elite and the arm strength, body control, and athleticism are there, so the focus just needs to turn to his changeup and avoiding those lapses in command.

4. C Hayden Dunhurst, Mississippi.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 5'11", 220 lbs. Born 9/19/2000. Hometown: Carriere, MS.
2021: 7 HR, .280/.385/.435, 3 SB, 44/32 K/BB in 65 games.
Hayden Dunhurst hasn't quite put it all together yet, but strong defensive catchers who can produce in power conferences are always in demand and he firmly fits that profile. One of the top recruits nationally to reach campus from the 2019 high school ranks, Dunhurst has seen his game translate much more smoothly to the SEC than many anticipated and he now finds himself in the conversation as one of the top catchers in a loaded college class along with Mississippi State's Logan Tanner, Arizona's Daniel Susac, and Georgia Tech's Kevin Parada. He may be a bit undersized for a power hitter at 5'11", but like Jacob Berry he packs a ton of strength into that shorter frame and shows plus raw power from both sides of the plate. To this point, it hasn't shown up in games as much because he has mostly focused on making contact and hitting for average, opting to use the whole field and look for line drives rather than turn on and lift balls out of the park. Some would like to see the southern Mississippi product accept more swing and miss into his game to allow the power to play up, but regardless he has plenty of bat to profile as a starting catcher in the big leagues. Dunhurst really shines on defense, where his cannon arm ranks among the best in college baseball and can completely shut down the running game. While that plus-plus arm is his calling card, he's also come along very nicely with his glovework and figures to be an above average defender in that regard with a little more work, making the whole defensive package extremely enticing. Usually you have take a "glove-first" catcher to get that kind of defense and just hope his bat comes along, but Dunhurst has the bat. He can take it a step further by putting it all together in 2022 and tapping that power without letting his strikeout rate creep up too much, and if he can, he may be able to push to the front of the college catching pack.

5. C Logan Tanner, Mississippi State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 215 lbs. Born 11/10/2000. Hometown: Lucedale, MS.
2021: 15 HR, .287/.382/.525, 0 SB, 48/39 K/BB in 67 games.
Hayden Dunhurst and Logan Tanner have very similar profiles and are very close on this list, but I ultimately decided to put Dunhurst first because he's a switch hitter, his tools are a touch louder, and Tanner could not take advantage of Dunhurst's slower College National Team run (.160/.267/.160) as he struggled in his own right (.182/.217/.318). Tanner, also a southern Mississippi native who grew up a couple counties over from Dunhurst, was not as highly rated a recruit but was fantastic for Mississippi State in its run to the College World Series championship. He's a very well-rounded hitter that shows above average power from a compact right handed swing, effectively deploying the strength in his sturdy frame into usable game power. His patient, mature approach at the plate helps him tap that power consistently against good pitching, though his pure bat to ball skills are more average and he can sometimes get himself into trouble in deep counts. Behind the plate, he's an extremely good athlete that figures to be a plus defender, showing plenty of agility back there that is apparent to any observer. His plus arm plays up even further due to that agility, with the ability to throw from multiple angles as evidenced by this great throw against Ole Miss. With above average power that he taps in games, a strong enough approach to work in pro ball and make up for any deficiencies in his pure contact ability, and strong defense at a premium position, there are very few weaknesses in this profile and Tanner has a chance to work his way up as a starting catcher.

6. RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 1/3/2001. Hometown: Cumming, GA.
2021: 5-0, 1.44 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 100/15 K/BB in 56.1 innings.
I will usually be the low man on college relievers. Their track record is as poor as any demographic in the draft, as they're already often performing at maximum capacity and don't get that "bump" in stuff that college starters do in shifting to relief work in pro ball. That said, Landon Sims is different. Despite facing extremely tough competition in 2021, he still struck out 46.9% of his opponents with an elite fastball/slider combination that very few hitters have solved to this point. Sims sits in the mid 90's and will regularly touch 97 without exerting himself, and the pitch plays up further because he gets tremendous riding life that makes it appear to catch another gear halfway to the plate. If you want the dictionary definition of an "explosive" fastball, here's what it looks like from behind the plate. On top of that plus-plus pitch, we have another one in the slider. Sims' slider has devastating late bite, just diving into oblivion at the last possible second and leaving hitters looking silly like this. On top of having two plus-plus pitches, he shows above average command that really helps the two pitches play off each other, something you very rarely see from an amateur pitcher with that kind of stuff. He served as the closer in 2021, often pitching two or three innings at a time, but not because he lacks the ability to start. Mississippi State's staff was absolutely loaded and Sims' mentality on the mound fits perfectly in a closer's role, as he's a fire breathing competitor that will make damn sure you see nothing but his very best from start to finish. He lives for the big stage and relishes in high pressure situations, so he'll for sure be able to handle the bright lights of even MLB's larger markets. So why #6? First, the five players ahead of him project as a middle of the order slugger, an all-around catalyst, an ace, and back to back starting catchers, so that's all elite talent and nothing to be ashamed of falling behind. Second is the reliever thing, and you can see the track record in this tweet. When a starter converts to relieving in pro ball, his stuff takes a natural jump as he goes from throwing six or seven innings at a time to just one or two, but a college reliever doesn't get that bump. I really want to see how Sims' stuff holds up in a starting role in 2022 before feeling comfortable with him as a first round pick, especially as it pertains to holding velocity (he's usually about 93-95, T97 in relief) and keeping that devastating late snap on his slider. We also haven't seen much of a changeup because he really hasn't needed it. There's no reason not to think he can make that jump to starting, especially given his efficient delivery, ridiculous arm strength, strong command, and overall competitiveness on the mound, so he still ranks among the best in the SEC and therefore the best in college baseball. We'll just have to wait and see.

7. 3B Cade Doughty, Louisiana State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 3/26/2001. Hometown: Denham Springs, LA.
2021: 13 HR, .308/.368/.546, 1 SB, 32/22 K/BB in 58 games.
Cade Doughty does not have the loudest tools in the SEC, and certainly does not compare favorably to the other names on this impressive list when it comes to power, speed, or overall athleticism. However, the kid is somewhat reminiscent of another former LSU Tiger, Daniel Cabrera, in that he can just flat out play baseball. I actually like Doughty significantly more than I liked Cabrera, and I (like many others) am enamored enough with his natural feel for the game to rank him high on this list. Doughty was a highly regarded recruit coming out of the Baton Rouge-area high school ranks and I liked him then as well, and all he's done since then is just hit and hit and hit. Doughty is a very professional hitter that makes a ton of contact from the right side, consistently going with the pitch and working an all fields approach. With a bat path that is naturally long through the hitting zone, he has some margin for error on pitches he mistimes. Not just a slappy gap to gap hitter, he has plenty of leverage in his 6'1" frame and taps into above average power both to his pull side and the opposite field. The end product is a very well-rounded bat that has a chance to produce 15-20 home runs annually in the majors while posting relatively high on-base percentages, and I have a feeling he's going to end up closer to his ceiling than his floor. In 2022, he might want to get a bit more selective to try to draw a few more walks, as he tends to make contact early in the count and walked in just 8.5% of his plate appearances last year. He also provides value on defense, with good range and instincts in the infield and an above average arm that would make him a net-positive defender at either second or third base.

8. 2B Robert Moore, Arkansas.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 5'9", 170 lbs. Born 3/31/2002. Hometown: Leawood, KS.
2021: 16 HR, .283/.384/.558, 6 SB, 51/41 K/BB in 61 games.
Every year, guys come around that are just ballers. Last year it was Ryan Bliss, now with the Diamondbacks, and this year Robert Moore seems like the guy. The son of Royals general manager Dayton Moore, Robert is undersized and lacks big tools but can just flat out play baseball with the best of them. He graduated early from Shawnee Mission East High School in the Kansas City suburbs and enrolled at Arkansas when he was just 17, and promptly hit .317/.403/.444 as a freshman despite not being old enough to vote. Moore continued that success with a strong sophomore season at 18-19 years old and then hit .351/.415/.378 as one of the youngest members of the US Collegiate National Team. Standing just 5'9" and with a skinny frame at that, he works counts extremely well and is completely unfazed by elite, older pitching, taking professional at bats consistently day in and day out. The switch hitter is very mechanically sound in his swing from both sides of the plate, creating a ton of whip that gives him more power than you'd expect for his size, especially to the pull side. That power didn't really show up with wood bats for the CNT, where he had just one extra base hit (a double) in eleven games, and given his size it's fair to question how much he'll have in pro ball. It's not quite a Nick Madrigal profile because there is some swing and miss in his game, and he may have to decide going forward what kind of a hitter he wants to be and how much contact he'll trade for power. To me, how much the power will show up with wood bats is probably the most important question. Moore is a sparkplug on defense as well, playing a standout second base for Arkansas and potentially showing the ability to move over to shortstop in pro ball if he can get a little stronger and improve his arm a touch. Either way, he's a plus runner and has the range to play anywhere on the diamond. There are players you don't bet against, and Bob Moore seems like one of them with a Dustin Pedroia ceiling.

9. OF Jud Fabian, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 9/27/2000. Hometown: Ocala, FL.
2021: 20 HR, .249/.364/.560, 6 SB, 79/40 K/BB in 59 games.
We spent a lot of words on Jud Fabian in 2021, and we're going to do it again in 2022. Having graduated a semester early from Trinity Catholic High School in Ocala, Florida in 2018, he enrolled at Florida in time for the 2019 season and had established himself as one of the top prospects in the country (and #3 in the SEC) by the time the 2021 season rolled around. What ensued was an extremely up and down junior year for Fabian, who had four multi-homer games (including one against #2 overall pick Jack Leiter) but at one point also managed to strike out 15 times in 22 hitless plate appearances. The Red Sox still drafted him with the 40th overall pick and offered him a multi-million dollar signing bonus, but it wasn't anywhere close to the $3 million he had asked for (a price some other teams were reportedly willing to meet) and he's returning to school. Last year, Fabian was one of the youngest eligible players from a four year school, still two and a half months shy of his 21st birthday, so he'll be age appropriate for this year's draft and is younger than Hayden Dunhurst. He does a lot of things well and really only has one weakness in his game. The Ocala product has plus raw power and does an excellent job of lifting the ball, with a swing ideal for blasting balls out of the park that has done so consistently against the best arms in the country. As up and down as his season was, he never went more than four games without a home run in the regular season. He also has a very strong eye at the plate, effectively working counts and recognizing spin even against premium velocity and stuff. The problem with his bat, however, is that he simply lacks the barrel accuracy to consistently tap his power and get on base. Fabian's uppercut swing means that even though he rarely chases bad pitches, he often swings through hittable ones and can be prone to long bouts of coming up empty at the plate. In 2022, he'll have to prove he can be more consistent, because another year of ups and downs could knock him out of the top two rounds or so. However, even a small reduction in his strikeout rate where he at least avoids the major slumps that plagued him in 2021 could lock him into the first round. On defense, Fabian provides plenty of value with plus speed and range that will fit very well in center field, taking some pressure off his bat and also helping him out on the bases.

10. LHP Connor Prielipp, Alabama.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 1/10/2001. Hometown: Tomah, WI.
2021: 1-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 12/1 K/BB in 7 IP.
Connor Prielipp is somewhat of the mystery man in this conference. He began his college career perhaps as well as you could possibly expect, tossing 26 shutout innings with 43 strikeouts, six walks, and just nine hits allowed in five non-conference starts against Northeastern, UNLV, Harvard, Lipscomb, and McNeese State. The first four came in the shortened 2020 season, while the McNeese State start ended up being his only start of the 2021 season as his elbow gave out on him. He came back for two much less effective relief appearances against Auburn and LSU in mid-April and mid-May, respectively (2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K), but went down with Tommy John surgery and will likely miss the 2022 season as well. It's not often that an injured pitcher with just 28 collegiate innings to his name can make a first round push, especially when they were not a highly regarded recruit, but Prielipp really is special. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has been up to 97, velocity he has maintained throughout his handful of starts. His slider is a plus pitch with late bite, darting under bats at the last second, and his changeup is an above average pitch in its own right. With a simple, easy delivery, the 6'2" lefty commands his pitches well and has all of the traits you look for in a frontline starting pitcher, and if he hadn't gotten hurt he may very well be the number one player on this list. However, the fact that we haven't seen how he handles a larger workload is important, as he'll be asked to throw roughly seven times his career high in innings in a big league rotation, and for that reason you can't project him as a starter with as much certainty as a guy like Peyton Pallette. Prielipp's five starts have also come against weaker competition, with the two worst innings of his career being the only two he threw against SEC teams (albeit while hurt). On talent alone, he might be the best in the conference, so his low ranking on this list is really just a byproduct of the depth of the conference combined with the unfortunate fact that we just won't have seen him pitch in a very long time come draft day.

11. OF Cayden Wallace, Arkansas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 8/7/2001. Hometown: Greenbrier, AR.
2021: 14 HR, .279/.369/.500, 0 SB, 61/29 K/BB in 60 games.
Cayden Wallace was one of the top recruits to make it to campus following the shutdown, and he immediately made an impact by working his way into the middle of arguably the best lineup in the country as a true freshman. After swatting 14 home runs as a teenager playing an SEC schedule, he continued to produce with wood bats in the Cape Cod League and slashed .290/.352/.468 with two home runs over 18 games. Because he turned 20 over the summer and will be 21 a few weeks after the draft, he'll be eligible this year as a true sophomore. The first thing you notice with Wallace is the power, as he produces big exit velocities and crushes baseballs impressive distances from the right side. Not the biggest guy in the world at six feet tall, he packs in plenty of lean muscle and produces a ton of force. Evaluators saw him as power-over-hit in high school and that was the case during his freshman season, but he handled SEC pitching better than many expected right out of the gate and was unfazed by the premium stuff he saw on the Cape. There is still some swing and miss in his game with a right handed uppercut that can get a bit long at times, but the barrel does get into the hitting zone early and he does a great job of staying through the ball. As his pitch recognition skills sharpen with age, he should become an average hitter in the big leagues with the potential for plus power. The central Arkansas native is a below average runner but certainly not a base clogger, and his cannon right arm gives him a chance to be an average defender in right field. He played infield in high school and could stick at third base with some more seasoning, and he may get the opportunity to prove himself a bit at the position in 2022 after playing mostly right field in 2021. There's a little more projection required with Wallace because he doesn't control the strike zone as well as many of the names above him on this list, but he's also younger than most of them as well. Either way, expect big things from him in 2022.

12. LHP Hunter Barco, Florida.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 220 lbs. Born 12/15/2000. Hometown: Jacksonville, FL.
2021: 10-3, 4.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 94/26 K/BB in 83 innings.
Hayden Dunhurst, Landon Sims, Cade Doughty, and Cayden Wallace may have been nationally-known prospects coming out of high school, but Hunter Barco was the most hyped of all of them at Bolles High School in Jacksonville, earning first round grades from some evaluators. His performance at Florida has been more up and down than he may have liked so far, but with a 3.52 ERA and a sharp 120/32 strikeout to walk ratio through 102.1 innings over two seasons, he remains very much a contender for the first round. Barco has a deep arm plunge in his delivery and comes from a low three quarters slot that gives a unique look to hitters, especially from the left side, getting down the mound well with his lower half and showing off his athleticism. His stuff can be inconsistent, with a fastball that can get up to 96-97 at its best but which has also been known to drop into the upper 80's. The slider is his best pitch, a plus, sweepy breaker when it's on that creates a lot of confused swings, while his split changeup gives him another above average pitch. Barco's in-zone command can come and go but he does a very good job of pounding the strike zone even when he isn't feeling as precise with his location, and only once in his twenty career starts has he walked more than three batters in an outing. The 6'4" lefty has projection remaining and is a very good athlete, and he gave a glimpse at his ceiling this summer when he struck out eight of the ten batters he faced for the US Collegiate National Team. On the docket for 2022 will be a bit more consistency, which could help him overtake Connor Prielipp, Landon Sims, and Peyton Pallette as the best arm in the conference.

Honorable Mentions
Given the depth of this conference, I wanted to touch on a couple more names that just missed. Vanderbilt's Spencer Jones was the first name off the list, as he hasn't received much playing time in Nashville but slashed an impressive .309/.409/.457 on the Cape and shows plus raw power from a 6'7" frame. He was one of the more famous players in the 2019 prep class out of high school in the San Diego area but made it to campus after injuries wiped out his senior season, and at the time he drew early round interest as a pitcher with a low 90's fastball and an above average curveball as well. He hasn't pitched at all for Vanderbilt and has only played in 48 games overall in two seasons, so it will be interesting to see how much he can tap that power in games on a consistent basis in 2022 and whether his strong plate discipline can translate to a plus hit tool despite the natural swing and miss you get with arms as long as his. And maybe we'll finally get to see him pitch. Tennessee's Blade Tidwell is another interesting draft-eligible sophomore who will turn 21 in June, coming off a strong true-freshman season in the Volunteer rotation where he had a 3.74 ERA and a 90/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 98.2 innings. The 6'4" righty has a power right arm that can run his fastball up to 97 with ease, sitting in the mid 90's and showing very good feel to spin both a slider and curveball as well. His control is ahead of his command but he pounds the strike zone consistently and rarely hurts himself with walks, giving him a high floor as a back-end starter with a mid-rotation ceiling. Florida's Brandon Sproat might have the strongest arm in the entire conference, but he has a 5.53 ERA and a 26/18 strikeout to walk ratio over just 27.2 innings because he's struggled to throw strikes. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch 99 in relief, while his above average slider provides an out pitch. To this point, he looks like a reliever because of that below average command and the lack of a reliable changeup, but there are no glaring issues in his delivery and more consistent innings in 2022 might help him pull it together enough to earn a shot as a starter. Lastly, LSU's Eric Reyzelman is one of the more interesting transfers out there, having come over from San Francisco. While his numbers against weaker competition weren't that impressive over two years with the Dons (5.72 ERA, 56/36 K/BB in 50.1 IP), he was much stronger on the Cape this summer (2.93 ERA, 38/8 K/BB in 27.2 IP) and he's a breakout candidate for 2022. The 6'2" righty now sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can touch 96-97 in short stints, adding a full arsenal behind it headlined by an above average slider. Reyzelman has a very loose, athletic delivery with some deception and is young for the class, in fact younger than true-sophomore Tidwell despite being a junior.