2019 Draft Review: Tampa Bay Rays

First five rounds: Greg Jones (1-22), J.J. Goss (CBA-36), Seth Johnson (CBA-40), John Doxakis (2-61), Shane Sasaki (3-99), Graeme Stinson (4-128), Ben Brecht (5-158)
Also notable: Nathan Wiles (8-248), Cam Shepherd (20-608)

The Rays had four of the first 61 picks and used them to their advantage, hauling in a pitching-heavy class that saw them take six arms in a span of seven picks between their first competitive balance pick and the sixth round. After getting a potential leadoff man in Greg Jones, they grabbed a couple of high-upside arms in J.J. Goss and Seth Johnson before pivoting back to mostly safety arms like John Doxakis, Ben Brecht, Colby White, and Nathan Wiles. It's a really talented class and I think the Rays will get a lot of impact out of it with a potential leadoff man, two potential impact starters, and a lot of guys who could fill out the back of the rotation.

1-22: SS Greg Jones (UNC Wilmington, my rank: 38)
More of a third rounder early in the season, Jones pushed himself up boards with a strong sophomore season and looked like a second rounder for much of the spring, then made a mad rush at the end and landed here at the 22nd pick. After hitting a respectable .278/.412/.370 as a freshman in 2018, the Raleigh-area native got better and better throughout his draft-eligible sophomore season and finished with a .341/.491/.543 slash line, five home runs, 42 stolen bases, and a 44/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. Though he's a sophomore, Jones turned 21 back in March, making him the age of a typical junior, but he also hit like much more than the typical junior so it all evens out. He's exceptionally fast, as evidenced by those 42 stolen bases this year as well as 20 in 37 Cape Cod League games (where he slashed a respectable .259/.374/.353). He's also a very patient hitter, as evidenced by his 18.9% walk rate this year (as well as 15% on the Cape), and that patience becomes even more valuable because more walks gives him more chances to deploy his speed on the bases. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, though he's a skinny 6'2" and could eventually grow into enough to keep pitchers honest, but his real calling card will be his ability to spray line drives from gap to gap and let his wheels do the rest. He has the potential to turn into a true leadoff hitter with high on-base percentages and game-changing speed. Defensively, he's just decent at shortstop and some evaluators believe he would be better off moving to center field, where his speed could make him very valuable. Jones signed at slot for $3.03 million and is 4-8 with a double and a stolen base over his first two games at short season Hudson Valley.

CBA-36: RHP J.J. Goss (Cypress Ranch HS [TX], my rank: 24)
I really like this pick, as J.J. Goss has the chance to be a true impact starter. The 6'3" righty from the Houston suburbs checks all the boxes as a high school pitcher, showing a low to mid 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a good changeup, all of which he can command fairly well. He has room to fill out that 6'3" frame and add velocity, and his fluid delivery and whippy arm bode well for both adding velocity and continuing to improve his command. Even though nothing stands out as a true plus for him, he's very well rounded for a high school pitcher and could be a #2 starter. The Rays do extremely well with these kinds of pitchers, so I'd expect Goss to rise up prospect rankings throughout his time in the Tampa system. They managed to sign him at slot for just $2.05 million, which surprised me given his Texas A&M commitment and that pick #36 is a little lower than some projected him to go.

CBA-40: RHP Seth Johnson (Campbell, my rank: 30)
Johnson may be a college pitcher, but his profile is more similar to most high school pitchers given his risk, upside, lack of track record, and even age to a point. Johnson is a 6'1" righty who began his college career as an unheralded shortstop Louisburg College in Northern North Carolina, but some impressive bullpen sessions and a grand total of six innings on the mound led to Campbell, a Division I school off I-95 in Buies Creek, taking a chance on him as a pitcher. His statistics showed mixed results as he posted a 4.61 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an 81/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66.1 innings against mediocre competition, but if you watched him pitch, you would know why he went from a nobody to a competitive balance draft pick. The Charlotte-area native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, none of which are consistent but all of which can look very good at their best. While nobody would mistake him for Greg Maddux, Johnson already throws his fair share of strikes, and his smooth, low-effort delivery bode well for improving that command. To top it all off, Johnson is very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until August, so he's not as old as most college projects, which typically fall farther in the draft. Johnson hasn't gotten results yet, but his ability to turn himself into a real pitcher that flashes premium stuff with athleticism and some command virtually overnight has the Rays betting that he'll continue on this rapid upward trajectory in pro ball. He's far from a sure thing, though, and while his ceiling puts him as a #2 or #3 starter, a lot can go wrong along the way. Johnson signed for $1.72 million, $140,000 below slot.

2-61: RHP John Doxakis (Texas A&M, my rank: 47)
The Rays went and grabbed another college pitcher in the second round, but Doxakis is very different from Johnson. He had a fantastic season statistically, posting a 2.06 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 115/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings against a tough schedule, including a 2.23 ERA and a 62/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings in SEC play, where he faced some of college baseball's best lineups. The Houston native is 6'4" but actually sits around 90 with his fastball, instead relying on his above average slider, good command, and deceptive delivery to keep hitters off balance. With that average stuff, it's hard to project him as anything more than a back-end starter in pro ball, but his feel for pitching as well as his projectability with a skinny 6'4" frame give the Rays hope that he can add some velocity and get past that. Doxakis also has a bit of a funky delivery that might push other pitchers with similar skill sets to the bullpen, but he has the feel for pitching and the makeup to avoid that, at least in most potential outcomes. He signed for $1.13 million, right at slot.

3-99: OF Shane Sasaki (Iolani HS [HI], unranked)
Sasaki is a raw high school outfielder from Honolulu, one with a good all around game but also plenty of risk. Sasaki is a skinny six footer but generates some power with a big swing from the right side, as the torque and loft he generates could give him some pull side home runs. However, he probably won't ever hit more than 15-20 home runs per season in a best case scenario, so contact will also have to be a part of his game. It's questionable right now, and the length of his swing doesn't help ease those questions. Defensively, he uses his speed to be an above average center fielder, so all the pressure won't be on his bat. Obviously, the Rays believe they can make the power play up while maintaining his contact ability, and they're hoping to have gotten a solid every day player with this pick. Slot value is $587,400, but he has not signed yet.

4-128: LHP Graeme Stinson (Duke, my rank: 74)
Very few players saw their draft stock nosedive quite like Stinson's did in 2019. After posting a 1.89 ERA and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore reliever in 2018, he struck out twelve over five shutout innings in his one Cape Cod League start and positioned himself as a potential top ten pick if he could prove he could hang as a starter. Long story short, he didn't. The Atlanta native lasted just five starts before a hamstring injury ended his season with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings. Stinson is a 6'5" lefty who can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball when healthy while adding one of the best sliders in the draft class, one that could probably miss major league bats today. The Rays may give him another shot as a starter, but he'll have to get a few things done to stay there. He'll have to continue to develop his changeup and he'll have to prove his durability. Many scouts are worried that the hamstring injury was not an isolated incident, as he checks in at 250 pounds and doesn't have the strongest frame. Even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could prove lethal if he's healthy, and I think gambling on the upside was a great move by the Rays here. He signed for $440,400, which was actually $2,500 below slot.

5-158: LHP Ben Brecht (UC Santa Barbara, my rank: 123)
Despite being a tall college left handed pitcher like Stinson, Brecht actually shares very little with the man drafted a round before him. The 6'7" lefty from the Chicago suburbs had a fairly unremarkable season for UC Santa Barbara, posting a 4.10 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 101/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings. Despite his height, he's more about command and control as his fastball sits just a hair over 90 and his offspeeds do more to keep hitters off balance than to really miss bats. However, he uses his height to get good angle on his pitches, and when you combine that with his feel for pitching and command, he can really control the strike zone like a pro. The Rays are banking on that pitchability aspect and will hope that his stuff and velocity can take the small step forward they need to get him into the back end of a major league rotation. He signed for $297,500, which comes in $32,600 below slot.

8-248: RHP Nathan Wiles (Oklahoma, unranked)
In the eighth round, the Rays grabbed a generic right handed college pitcher out of Oklahoma in Nathan Wiles. This year, he posted a 4.40 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an 83/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings for the Sooners, though nine earned runs in his last start inflated his ERA by almost a run. The Kansas City-area native sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a decent slider and a changeup, with his command sticking out more than anything else. He's durable at 6'4" and with his strong track record of throwing strikes, the Rays will hope to sharpen his stuff a little bit and get him into the back end of the rotation, though he has a bit more work to do than Brecht. He signed for $162,900, which was $2,500 below slot.

20-608: SS Cam Shepherd (Georgia, unranked)
I'm not sure if Shepherd is going to sign here after what was a disappointing junior season for Georgia. He came to Athens as a highly regarded recruit who ranked #118 on my 2016 draft list then slashed .307/.354/.452 as a true freshman, but his line dropped to .244/.357/.385 as a sophomore then this year he hit just .231/.333/.386 with eight home runs and a 51/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. That line was dragged down by an awful .185/.244/.315 line through SEC play, further putting into question whether the Atlanta native can hit higher level pitching. It's his hit tool that stands out for him offensively, and he draws plenty of walks to boost his on-base percentage, but with below average power, Shepherd has a lot to prove at the plate. Fortunately, he's a good defender and may be able to stick at shortstop, otherwise he'll make a very good second baseman.

2019 Draft Preview: Left Handed Pitchers

There aren't as many left handers as right handers, so I combined the list here. As with the right handers, none of these guys figure to go in the top five picks, and it's very possible, even likely, that only two get drafted in the first round. There is especially a dearth of high schoolers here, with only two or three expected to go on day one and all coming with signability questions, though the college left handers have much more depth. 

Tier I: Nick Lodolo, Zack Thompson

The first tier consists of two major conference starters, with no high schoolers cracking it. Nick Lodolo took a huge step forward with TCU this year, posting a 2.36 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 131/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings before the draft. After posting ERA's of 4.35 and 4.32 over his first two seasons in Fort Worth, respectively, Lodolo has gotten more consistent with his mechanics and his command this year. He's 6'6" and throws in the low 90's, adding a solid curve and changeup, but he's got the best of both worlds in that he's a proven major conference starter as well as a tall lefty with projection remaining. He could be a #2 starter at best but looks more like a #3 and will likely go in the top ten picks, with the Reds at #7 looking like the best bet. Over at Kentucky, Zack Thompson put an inconsistent 2018 behind him by posting a 2.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 130/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings this year. He's 6'3" and has been creeping up lists all spring long, using his low 90's fastball and full set of secondaries to carve up SEC hitters. His command has been more consistent this spring as well, though it still plays closer to average, and he overall looks like a #3 or solid #4 starter. He figures to go somewhere in the middle of the first round, likely in the top half.

Tier II: Hunter Barco, Blake Walston, Ethan Small

These three pitchers couldn't be more different. Hunter Barco was an early top prospect in this class with an exceptional showing on the summer showcase circuit back in 2017, but he was more inconsistent in 2018 before righting the ship a bit in Spring 2019. He's a 6'4" high schooler from Jacksonville who throws a from a lower arm slot, showing a low 90's fastball, a slider that flashes plus when he doesn't come around it, and a good splitter. His mechanics have been all over the place and dictate his success, so getting him to use a consistent arm slot will be the first thing on his drafting team's list. He figures to go at the end of the first round or in the comp round based on talent, but he'll be a tough sign away from Florida. Blake Walston is an uber-projectable arm out of Wilmington, North Carolina, standing 6'4" with plenty of room to add weight to his athletic frame. He can run his fastball into the low 90's but fades during his starts and can end up in the high 80's at times, also showing an inconsistent curve with good shape but without power at this point. He also has a slider and a changeup, and his command has been pretty good for a raw, projectable high school arm. He'll be a tough sign away from NC State and he needs a lot of work, but he has high upside and could be an ace when all is said and done. He looks like a comp or second rounder, but signability might affect that. Ethan Small is a 22 year old redshirt junior at Mississippi State, but he has been the best pitcher in college baseball this season. In 16 starts before the draft, Small posted a 1.88 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 160/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings against some of the top competition in the nation. His fastball only sits around 90 and his secondary stuff is closer to average, but his command and feel for pitching are so good that even the SEC's best hitters can't figure him out. There is deception in his delivery and he varies his timing, and if anybody can make a 90 MPH fastball work in pro ball, it will be Small, who figures to go in the second round and has #4 or #5 starter projection.

Tier III: Spencer Jones, Tommy Henry, Erik Miller, T.J. Sikkema, Brandon Williamson, Graeme Stinson, Matt Cronin

This is where the deep group of college lefties gets going. We'll start with Southern California high schooler Spencer Jones, a two-way player who looked to be a first rounder before an elbow injury cost him most of his senior season. He shows power at the plate but on the mound, the 6'7" lefty shows a low 90's fastball and a good curveball that should be solid building blocks. He's much more about projectability than present stuff, but he has some of the highest upside in the class, so it's hard to peg his draft position. On the college side, Michigan's Tommy Henry has been inconsistent this spring but shows fringe first round stuff at his best. This year, he had a 3.61 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 111/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.2 innings, showing really well early in the season but seeing his stuff flatten out at times later on. He's 6'3" and sits in the low 90's with a slider and changeup that can look plus at their best, though as I said before, they flattened out at times later in the season, and his command has played up well this year. He looks like a mid rotation starter at times but at others, his stuff looks fringy in terms of being a major league starter. He looks like a second rounder. Stanford's Erik Miller has also been inconsistent, posting a 3.15 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 97/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings this season. He's 6'5" and shows great stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's and adding a good slider that generates swings and misses, but he loses his mechanics at times and that leads to bouts of wildness. He struggled in the Cape Cod League, but a team that thinks it can clean him up could help him reach his ceiling as a mid rotation starter. He's a second or third rounder. Missouri's T.J. Sikkema has not been inconsistent, putting up a 1.32 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 101/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, rivaling Small at times as the best pitcher in the SEC. He's just six feet tall but sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding a good slider that also helped him put up a 1.72 ERA in the Cape Cod League. He's extremely competitive on the mound, which helps his stuff play up, his command is solid, and he won't be 21 until July, so he has a chance to outplay his #5 starter projection. He looks like a second rounder. Behind Lodolo in the TCU rotation, Brandon Williamson has been inconsistent but shows big stuff at times. He's 6'5" and posted a 4.19 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and an 89/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings. He shows a low to mid 90's fastball and a good slider from a smooth delivery, but he's been oddly inconsistent with both the level of his stuff and his command. A 6'5" lefty with velocity and an easy delivery is a scout's dream, but he's been inconsistent enough that he may be forced to the bullpen and may last until the third round. He has a high ceiling if he can put it all together. Duke's Graeme Stinson had a chance to go in the top ten picks with a good run through the ACC, but instead, it was a disaster. Stinson's transition to the rotation lasted just five starts before a hamstring injury, in which he posted a 4.58 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings. He's 6'5" and shows premium stuff at his best, running his fastball into the mid 90's with a wipeout slider that may be the best in the class, and that helped him put together one fantastic start in the Cape Cod League (5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 12 K). However, there were durability concerns even before his hamstring injury, and now it looks like he'll be a reliever only in pro ball. Once healthy, he could move quickly in that role and he looks like a second rounder. Lastly, Arkansas's Matt Cronin is a pure reliever, having put up a 2.00 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. He's 6'2" but with a running low to mid 90's fastball and a very good slider, he'll move quickly through the minors and could be a set-up man or even a closer. However, his command is fringy, so he's more of a solid relief prospect than an elite one. He should go in the second or third round.

Others: Ben Brecht, Antoine Kelly, Mason Feole, Avery Short, Hayden Mullins