2022 Hall of Fame: My Ballot

For my views on steroids, see my writing from a year ago. My views haven't changed for the most part, though with players like Alex Rodriguez to the ballot, some small updates should be in place. It needs to be looked at on a case by case basis, but for the most part, any player who tested positive but whose Hall-worthy production was likely not solely a product of PED's (i.e., the steroids did not push him over the hump) will have to wait a year before getting my vote in their second year of eligibility. For players on the borderline who may or may not have made it without PED's, they don't get in. Below are the players I would vote for and some notables that I would not vote for, with reasoning.

Begrudging but firm YES: OF Barry Bonds (1986-2007)
Regular season: 762 HR, .298/.444/.607, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR in 2986 games.
Postseason: 9 HR, .245/.433/.503, 9 SB, 141 wRC+ in 48 games.
I'll keep this brief because there isn't much mystery surrounding Barry Bonds' case. Ignoring the steroids, you could make a very good case that he is the single greatest player in the history of baseball. Not one of the best, but the single greatest. Take away all the steroids, which there is no doubt he used and abused, and he's still likely a 100 WAR player that would be in the Hall with over 90% of the vote. See last year's steroid primer for my thoughts on steroids and why I'm willing to let it slide and vote him in.

Begrudging but firm YES: RHP Roger Clemens (1984-2007)
Regular season: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB in 4916.2 innings.
Postseason: 12-8, 3.75 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 173/70 K/BB in 199 innings.
Pretty similar deal here to Bonds. He's not quite the greatest pitcher of all time, but he's in the inner circle of all time greats and won seven Cy Young's. Again, if he hadn't been juicing he still would be a pretty comfortable Hall of Famer, and it's just time to let him in.

Clear-cut YES: RHP Curt Schilling (1988-2007)
Regular season: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB in 3261 innings.
Postseason: 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 120/25 K/BB in 133.1 innings.
Let's get this one out of the way. Yeah, he's an asshole, and it's not just because he's politically conservative or an outspoken Trump supporter. The way he talks about people, the things he says, they're just childish and hurtful no matter where you fall on the political spectrum. That said, if he gets elected, I guarantee he won't be the worst person to be enshrined in Cooperstown by a good margin (Cap Anson played a major role in segregating baseball, an offense I actually believe to be grounds for removal from the Hall). In fact, he's not even the worst human being on this ballot because Omar Vizquel exists. In the context of my hypothetical Hall of Fame vote, I really, really don't care if he wants to be a jackass on his own time, because I'm concerned about what he did between the lines. Voting for him is not an endorsement of his opinions and any reasonable person knows that. Anyways, Schilling was part of an elite group of pitchers in the Steroid Era that really stood out at a time when offense was at an all time high, and his sustained peak from 1996-2004 (3.23 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 2127/397 K/BB in 2007.2 IP) was as impressive a statement as any player on this ballot not named Bonds, Clemens, or Rodriguez. He reached 300 strikeouts three times and nearly did so a fourth, threw over 225 innings seven times, posted teight qualified seasons with an ERA of 3.26 or lower, and was an impact piece on pitching staffs for nearly twenty years. He struck out 23.4% of his opponents for his career and walked just 5.3%. Then we take his postseason performance into consideration, in which he pitched to a 2.23 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 133.1 innings against baseball's best lineups when it mattered most, and this is a pretty clear Hall of Fame resume to me.

Clear-cut YES: LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Regular season: 2.31 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 innings.
Postseason: 10.03 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 1.97 WHIP, 13/2 K/BB in 11.2 innings.
Next up we have the greatest left handed reliever of all time, and it's not even close. There aren't many cumulative stats available for relievers but he leads all lefties in strikeouts (1196 to 1169 over Jesse Orosco), fWAR, (24.0 to 20.3 over Aroldis Chapman), RE24 (198.2 to 154.5 over Orosco) and WPA (28.4 to 21.0 over Chapman), four stats I think are pretty telling. Lefty relievers are an extremely important part of the game to the point where every team has at least one, so should the clear cut greatest not be in the Hall of Fame? Even if you find handedness arbitrary, he stacks up extremely well to every true reliever currently enshrined except for Mariano Rivera. Trevor Hoffman, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, I'd argue that Wagner was as good or better than all of them. When you look at that group of six of the greatest non-Rivera relievers of all time, he may be second to last in fWAR because he's a bit behind in innings, but he's first in ERA, FIP, WHIP, RE24, strikeout rate, and a host of other things. 11.2 bad postseason innings aside, Billy Wagner is a clear-cut Hall of Famer who should have been voted in years ago.

Pretty easy YES: OF Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Regular season: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games.
Postseason: 10 HR, .273/.363/.433, 5 SB, 108 wRC+ in 76 games.
This is another one that I don't have to think too hard about. Yeah, the end of his career was pretty abysmal, as he hit just .214/.314/.420 (a 93 wRC+) and put up just 6.0 fWAR in 589 games from 2007-2012. And admittedly, that's no small piece either, as he was still 29 years old on Opening Day in 2007. But what Jones did in the prime of his career, from 1998-2006, warrants a Hall of Fame selection on its own. Aside from being quite possibly the greatest defensive outfielder of all time, he hit .270/.347/.513 (119 wRC+) with 319 home runs and 110 stolen bases, putting up the second-most fWAR in all of baseball behind only Barry Bonds and ahead of third place Bobby Abreu by a long shot. So we can compare this profile a bit to Omar Vizquel, who had much more longevity, and I still think Jones comes out way ahead. Vizquel was one of the greatest defensive shortstops ever (and therefore one of the greatest defenders ever), but his career 83 wRC+ meant he was fully 17% below league average in offensive production, or in other words, a liability. Jones, meanwhile, had a 111 career wRC+ that made him 11% above league average, or in other words, a very solid contributor if not a slugger. Attach that bat to arguably the greatest defensive outfielder ever and you have a pretty easy Hall of Fame profile.

Borderline, but YES: 3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012)
Regular season: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games.
Postseason: 5 HR, .220/.302/.376, 0 SB, 78 wRC+ in 39 games.
Bonds and Clemens are their own cases, and I think Curt Schilling and Billy Wagner are pretty black and white Hall of Famers to me. Andruw Jones is not quite black and white but I'm still very comfortable with that yes. Scott Rolen is where it starts to get a little more gray, though I do fall on the side of a yes vote here. You could argue that when watching him play throughout the late 90's and 00's, nobody sat back and thought "man, we're watching a Hall of Famer!" Maybe in 2004, when he hit .314/.409/.598 with 34 home runs and his typical elite defense, but otherwise, he looked on the surface like a great candidate for the Hall of Very Good. But when you pull the camera back, I think you get a much, much better case than you might think. He was always a high level defender, and from 1997-2004, he posted a wRC+ of 121 or better every year, meaning even at his worst he was still a 21% better hitter than league average over a span of eight years. That exceptional consistency with the bat means that he was always a true impact piece in the lineup every day for the better part of a decade, and he popped for 126 again in 2006 and 2010. He finished with 300+ home runs, 500+ doubles, and 100+ stolen bases if you like counting stats, and I really struggle to see a better combination of offense and defense on this ballot among non-PED players. I won't die on the hill that Scott Rolen is a Hall of Famer like I will for the players above him here, but that's a damn good case if you ask me and it's enough for my vote.

Borderline, but YES: OF Gary Sheffield (1988-2009)
Regular season: 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR in 2576 games.
Postseason: 6 HR, .248/.401/.398, 1 SB, 120 wRC+ in 44 games.
Gary Sheffield is another one in the gray area where I won't die on this hill, but he gets my vote. He would seem to fit the "borderline case that gets flipped to 'no' by PED's," but it's a little murkier than that. I've read into the PED allegations against him and while I'm no investigative journalist, I'm not sold he did them. Maybe he did, and honestly it's probably better than 50%, but I just don't see enough evidence to "convict" him and leave him off my ballot. So because of that, I'm not going to factor PED's into my vote and instead I'll just go off the numbers, which lean "yes" for me. 500+ home runs, nearly 500 doubles, 250+ stolen bases, and reasonably close to 3000 hits means he has the counting stats. He finished pretty darn close to a career .300/.400/.500 line despite a very long, 22 year career even by Hall of Fame standards. He had four different seasons where he was worth 6.5 or more fWAR despite playing crappy defense, and in those seasons he posted incredible wRC+'s of 172, 185, 173, and 163, so he certainly looked like a Hall of Famer for sustained periods throughout his career, unlike Scott Rolen above him. Between the career achievement and the absolute battering ram he proved to be at his best, I'm willing to ignore the poor defense and say that one of the game's better hitters of all time deserves enshrinement.

Borderline, but YES: DH David Ortiz (1997-2016)
Regular season: 541 HR, .286/.380/.552, 17 SB, 140 wRC+, 51.0 fWAR in 2408 games.
Postseason: 17 HR, .289/.404/.543, 0 SB, 144 wRC+ in 85 games.
David Ortiz is in the same boat as Gary Sheffield for me when it comes to PED's. He's accused and he probably took them, but again, there's not nearly enough evidence to say for sure and I'm not going to hold him out of the Hall based on that. Now interestingly, fWAR does not love his career achievement and puts him more in the realm of Jimmy Rollins (49.4) and Mark Teixeira (44.8) than up with Rolen (69.9), Jones (67.0), and Sheffield (62.1). And I can see where that comes from, because he didn't play defense and even in terms of his hitting he was often banged up, only once playing more than 151 games in a season and sitting out more than twenty games in more than half the seasons he played. Still, there's no denying that Big Papi was a special player and a special hitter. Despite being banged up, he was extremely consistent with the bat when he was on the field and put up fifteen consecutive seasons of twenty or more home runs from 2002-2016, all the while maintaining on-base percentages near or above .400. Only once in his twenty year career, during a ten game cup of coffee with the Twins in 1999, was he less than a league average hitter. From 2003-2016, he was at least 34% better in twelve of fourteen seasons. Add in his playoff resume, which includes helping break the curse in 2004 (he hit .400/.515/.764! in that postseason) and an overall line every bit as good as his regular season numbers, and I think he gets pushed over the hump. Public image is probably the last thing I look at but it certainly doesn't hurt that he was one of the most beloved players in Red Sox history and was not only the face of the franchise, but is probably the face of the DH position for all time.

Borderline, but YES: OF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011)
Regular season: 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR in 2302 games.
Postseason: 29 HR, .285/.394/.544, 1 SB, 140 wRC+ in 111 games.
Manny Ramirez is a tough one. Unlike Gary Sheffield and David Ortiz, it's pretty clear-cut that he used PED's, so that would mean he should only go into the Hall of Fame if he has a pretty clear-cut case on the numbers alone. Is his case clear-cut? If it's not, I think it's pretty close to clear, and at the very least he's probably better than "borderline," which would automatically disqualify him in my book given the PED's. There's no way to quantify what effect the PED's had on his numbers, and I'm really 50-50 but I feel fairly comfortable saying he would have been a Hall of Famer anyways. There are only five players in history that can match or better all three legs of Manny's slash line: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Hank Greenberg. Throw in the home run total and it's just Ruth. He's a top-25 hitter of all time by wRC+ despite playing in an offensively-charged environment, posting a mark of 140 or better fifteen times in sixteen years. So for a decade and a half, he was an elite hitter at almost all times. Throw in a very solid postseason track record, and I think I have just enough to get over his poor defense and PED suspension.

Literally 51-49 YES: OF Bobby Abreu (1996-2014)
Regular season: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games.
Postseason: 1 HR, .284/.392/.418, 2 SB, 111 wRC+ in 20 games.
I don't think a case can get any more borderline than Bobby Abreu. Like Scott Rolen, he never looked like a Hall of Famer while he was playing, but again, pulling the camera back a bit helps his case. From 1998-2006, his high on-base percentages and above average power meant he never posted less than a 128 wRC+, and he actually had seven consecutive seasons with more than five fWAR. Unlike Rolen, he doesn't have a standout glove to back up those offensive numbers, but he was a very strong baserunner that stole 400 bases for his career and impacted the game with his acumen. Really, Abreu made up for never having a true Hall of Fame-caliber season (save for maybe 1999 or 2000 if you're feeling generous) by just consistently impacting the game in a lot of ways, at least offensively. I would feel more comfortable with Abreu here if he had an average glove instead of a mediocre one, but he was enough of a hitter and a baserunner to give himself a very good shot. If I'm going to penalize borderline HOF guys like Sammy Sosa for using PED's, then I should give a second look to guys who didn't, and I think Abreu's warrants a yes vote.

Eventually, but for now NO: SS Alex Rodriguez (1994-2016)
Regular season: 696 HR, .295/.380/.550, 329 SB, 141 wRC+, 113.7 fWAR in 2784 games.
Postseason: 13 HR, .259/.365/.457, 8 SB, 116 wRC+ in 76 games.
Alex Rodriguez is a Hall of Famer, and one day (possibly even next year) I will give him my hypothetical vote. For most of the reasons outlined in my steroid primer from last year, I think he belongs there despite being a convicted cheater. But that doesn't mean I have to ignore the cheating or pretend it doesn't matter, so I feel comfortable making him wait a year or two for my support. That said, the guy is one of the greatest shortstops/third basemen of all time, put up over 100 career WAR, hit 30+ home runs in thirteen consecutive seasons, and had five different seasons with at least 9.0 fWAR. You can dislike the guy and recognize that cheating might have given him a little extra edge but still respect that he is an inner-circle Hall of Famer.

Very close, but NO: 1B Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Regular season: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .211/.303/.281, 0 SB, 48 wRC+ in 15 games.
Todd Helton is probably the first player off my ballot, and what he did from 1999-2005 really is amazing – he hit .341/.442/.621 over 1092 games and seven seasons. If we're talking about the Hall of Fame for a first baseman playing all of his home games at Coors Field, the bar is going to be extremely high, and that certainly meets and exceeds that bar. But the decline was very sharp: from 2006 (his age-33 season) onwards to the end of his career, he hit just .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs in eight years. I'm not going to knock an on-base percentage near .400 in his post-prime years, but again, he's a first baseman playing at Coors. Andruw Jones had a similar career arc and in his paragraph I argued that his early-career success was enough to push him into the Hall, but Jones' peak lasted nine years while Helton's lasted seven, which for me is just enough of a difference to let Jones in but not Helton. Seven years of elite hitting is certainly enough to get the conversation going, but when he lacks much else on his resume – whether that's with the glove or the fact that he never did anything in the postseason (not his fault but also doesn't help his case) – he falls just short in my opinion.

Very close, but NO: LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013)
Regular season: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 innings.
Postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 innings.
The phrase "Hall of Very Good" gets thrown around often, and I think Andy Pettitte can be a prime example of what that looks like. The closer you look at his resume, the better it looks, with a very long career that provided a tremendous amount of value to the Yankees and the Astros. He was a true workhorse that topped 200 innings ten different times and 185 innings thirteen different times, and for the most part he kept his ERA in the 3.50 to 4.30 range most years despite pitching in hitter-friendly parks in the Steroid Era. His postseason resume is impressive, too, as his numbers did not dip at all and he earned the 2001 ALCS MVP Award. Though he did allow a lot of baserunners, his peripherals back up his strong performance. Fans can underestimate the value of a strong #2 or #3 starter and Pettitte provided that for nearly two decades, even popping for ace-like seasons in 1997 and 2005. However, aside from those couple of strong years, I don't know how often teams would see he was pitching tomorrow and think "uh oh, we got Pettitte next." Of course nobody looked forward to facing him, but I think his value was much more of a high-level supporting role to better teammates than as a true star that deserves enshrinement among the game's all time greats.

Close, but NO: OF Sammy Sosa (1989-2007)
Regular season: 609 HR, .273/.344/.534, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR in 2354 games.
Postseason: 2 HR, .245/.403/.415, 1 SB, 110 wRC+ in 15 games.
Sammy Sosa is the only player this year to be excluded by my PED rule, being that juicers with borderline cases don't get in. Had he been clean, I think I would put Sosa in fairly easily, but it still wouldn't be a clear-cut case given his low on-base percentages and the fact that his defense deteriorated pretty rapidly when his power began to take off. Ten consecutive seasons of 35+ home runs and four straight with 50+ is as impressive a power statement as anybody on this ballot not named Bonds, but it's a very one-dimensional case. A career walk rate under 10% and low batting averages kept his career OBP below .350, and only twice in his career did he crack .400. A career 124 wRC+ puts him in the company of Bobby Abreu (129), Jeff Kent (123), and Scott Rolen (122), with Kent falling short on my ballot despite being clean, Abreu very very barely making it, and Rolen bringing a very strong glove.

Closer than I thought, but NO: RHP Joe Nathan (1999-2016)
Regular season: 2.87 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 976/344 K/BB in 923.1 innings.
Postseason: 8.10 ERA, 5.68 FIP, 2.20 WHIP, 12/8 K/BB in 10 innings.
I originally didn't put much thought into Joe Nathan, but when I went back and looked a little closer, it's a pretty strong case. For me, relievers have the highest bar to clear, but for a while throughout Nathan's career, he was clearing that bar. From 2003-2009, he put up a 2.04 ERA, a 2.56 FIP, and a 0.95 WHIP in nearly 500 innings of work, striking out over 30% of his opponents along the way. That compares nicely to other primes I've highlighted above, such as with Curt Schilling (1996-2004), Andruw Jones (1998-2006), and Todd Helton (1999-2005), though you'll notice Schilling and Jones (who got my vote) were at the top of their game for nine years while Helton and Nathan (who did not) saw their primes last seven years. It's really unfortunate that 2010 Tommy John surgery brought his prime to a close, because after ramping back up in 2011 he was close to his old self with the Rangers in 2012 and 2013, and that puts him back in the conversation for me. He did, as it turns out, finish fifth all time among relievers in RE24 behind only Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Goose Gossage, and Trevor Hoffman, all of whom are in the Hall of Fame, as is the next man behind him (Lee Smith). I may consider him on future ballots, but for now the fact that he really didn't catch his stride as a major league pitcher until he was 28 really hurts him in that by the time he came down from his peak, he didn't have much opportunity to pad the stats, as well as his lack of postseason success (8.10 ERA in ten innings), means he just misses. For now he's the closer on the Hall of Very Good team.

Close, but NO: 2B Jeff Kent (1992-2008)
Regular season: 377 HR, .290/.356/.500, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR in 2298 games.
Postseason: 9 HR, .276/.340/.500, 1 SB, 119 wRC+ in 49 games.
If Andy Pettitte is the starting pitcher and Joe Nathan is the closer for the Hall of Very Good team, Jeff Kent can be the second baseman. With eight consecutive seasons of 20+ home runs and 30+ doubles, ten consecutive seasons with a wRC+ of 120 or higher (sixteen straight at at least league average), and a true Hall of Fame-caliber season in 2000 (33 HR, .334/.424/.596, 159 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR), it's a very good resume. He hit well in the postseason, too, and stuck around long enough to pick up nearly 2500 hits, nearly 400 home runs, and well over 500 doubles. But all in all, it feels just a little bit light to me. Great credentials, a case certainly worth listening to, but I feel much better discussing him among the great second basemen of the era than among the great second basemen of all time.

Interesting, but NO: LHP Mark Buehrle (2000-2015)
Regular season: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 1870 K/BB in 3283.1 innings.
Postseason: 2-1, 4.11 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 16/1 K/BB in 30.2 innings.
I'm not mistaking Mark Buehrle for a Hall of Famer for many of the same reasons as Andy Pettitte, but it's still a fun case to look at. He topped 200 innings in fourteen, nearly fifteen consecutive seasons, and only once did his ERA rise above 4.28 or his FIP above 4.46. A model of consistency, he was also an excellent defender and worked at a quick pace, something pitchers today can certainly learn from. The fact that he had no true Hall of Fame-caliber seasons (maybe 2005 if you're feeling generous) and pitched the majority of his career in a weaker AL Central hurts his case, and in the end, he probably belongs right next to Pettitte in the Hall of Very Good rotation.

Interesting, but NO: RHP Tim Hudson (1999-2015)
Regular season: 222-133, 3.49 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 2080/917 K/BB in 3126.2 innings.
Postseason: 1-4, 3.69 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 53/22 K/BB in 75.2 innings.
Here's another starter for the Hall of Very Good. Tim Hudson experienced more ups and downs in his career than the ultra-consistent Mark Buehrle, but the ups did look more HOF-worthy than Buehrle ever did. He had a three year stretch from 2001-2003 in which he put up a 3.02 ERA over an MLB-leading 713.1 innings and later popped for a couple more big seasons in 2007 and 2010, but ultimately he never quite had the sustained dominance necessary for a pitcher to reach the Hall of Fame in my book.

Pretty clear NO: SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Regular season: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .250/.327/.316, 23 SB, 70 wRC+ in 57 games.
Recent allegations surfacing about Omar Vizquel means he gets to take the crown from Curt Schilling as the worst human being on the ballot this year. Personally, I don't have to worry about them much because he wasn't a Hall of Famer in my book anyways. I mentioned in Andruw Jones' paragraph that he complemented an elite glove with a strong bat (111 wRC+), whereas Vizquel's elite glove came with a liability of a bat (83 wRC+). In an era where guys were bashing home runs over the fence left and right, Vizquel was a contact hitter that still only posted a .336 on-base percentage for his career and never even reached .400. He played 24 seasons across four different decades but only twice was he an above average hitter by wRC+ (115 in 1999 and 102 in 2002). The glove may have been great, but he was a black hole in lineups that needed to produce a lot of runs to be competitive. We can point to Ozzie Smith as a comparison but Ozzie had a career wRC+ of 90 (seven points better than Vizquel) and had seven above average seasons to Vizquel's two.

Hall of Fame 2021: My Ballot

I find the process of determining Hall-worthiness just as difficult as I find it interesting. There are so many complicating factors such as peak performance vs longevity, park effects and performance relative to league average, and of course, performance-enhancing drugs. Not only whether the drugs should disqualify a player, but whether the player took them and for how long. Below are my thoughts on this year's ballot, player by player, starting with those I would vote for. See my thoughts on steroids here.

Yes Votes

RHP Curt Schilling (1988-2007, 70.0% in 2020)
Career: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB in 3261 IP
Postseason: 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 120/25 K/BB in 133.1 IP
Best season (1997): 17-11, 2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 319/58 K/BB in 254.1 IP
To me, Curt Schilling is one of two the clear-cut Hall of Famers on this ballot, along with Billy Wagner. If I could only vote for one, I would give Schilling a hard look. He may have never won a Cy Young award, but from 1996-2004, he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball at a time when Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, and Randy Johnson were at their peaks. He had eight qualified seasons with a sub-3.30 ERA (most of which were during the Steroid Era), reached 300 strikeouts three times and narrowly missed a fourth, and appeared in twenty different seasons from 1988-2007. In the postseason, he was on another level, earning NLCS MVP honors in 1993 and a World Series MVP in 2001, holding a 2.23 ERA over 133.1 innings against the best lineups in baseball. He was a stud in the regular season, a stud in the postseason, and stuck around for a long time. He's a Hall of Famer, and I really don't care that he's a bit of a whacko off the field. It's the Baseball Hall of Fame, not the Public Image Hall of Fame.

LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010, 31.7% in 2020)
Career: 47-40, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 422 SV, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 IP
Postseason: 1-1, 10.03 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 3 SV, 13/2 K/BB in 11.2 IP
Best season (2003): 1-4, 1.78 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 44 SV, 105/23 K/BB in 86 IP
Many people are hesitant to put relievers in the Hall of Fame, and I completely understand that stance. Right now, the only pure relievers in the Hall from the modern era of relief pitching are Bruce Sutter, Lee Smith, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and maybe Goose Gossage as you count that as the modern era. Rivera is obviously in a class of his own, but if the other four are Hall of Famers, I see absolutely no argument to keep out Billy Wagner, who is far and away the greatest left handed reliever of all time. I mean, the numbers are ridiculous. He threw 903 innings, but even setting the minimum at 700, no pitcher in history can match his 33.2% strikeout rate, nor his .184 opponents' batting average, nor his 82% strand rate. Not even Mariano Rivera. Relievers are also notoriously inconsistent, but only once in Wagner's sixteen year career did he post an ERA above 2.85. When he retired in 2010 at the age of 39, he was still at the top of his game, posting a 1.47 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 104/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings, indicating that he still had more left in the tank. So Wagner struggled in the postseason over a tiny 11.2 inning postseason sample, but that's not nearly enough to keep him out in my book. And the 31.7% he got in 2020 is absurdly low.

CF Andruw Jones (1996-2012, 19.4% in 2020)
Career: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games
Postseason: 10 HR, .273/.363/.433, 108 wRC+ in 76 games
Best season (2000): 36 HR, .303/.366/.541, 21 SB, 127 wRC+, 7.7 fWAR in 161 games
Andruw Jones, like Billy Wagner, hasn't gotten nearly the love he deserves in the vote, falling shy of 20% last year. Maybe he's not a Hall of Famer (I think he is), but to me it's a pretty plain fact that he deserves at least 40% or so. Some might cringe at the idea of putting a player who hit .254 with a .337 on-base percentage in the Hall of Fame, and if elected, his .254 average would have him second only to Ray Schalk (.253) for the lowest in HoF history. Still, I see him as fully deserving. Jones was arguably the greatest defensive outfielder ever to play the game, and if some believe that Willie Mays or Devon White was better, than we can safely say he's a slam-dunk top five defensive outfielder ever, no debate. As I'll argue below with Omar Vizquel, though, defensive prowess isn't enough alone to get you in. No matter, because from 1998-2007, Jones was also one of the better hitters in the game, with ten straight seasons of more than 25 home runs, ten straight with 154 games played, eight seasons with a wRC+ of 112, and a career high of 51 home runs in 2005. On their own, those numbers don't put him in the Hall, but when we're talking about an all-time great defender, I think absolutely. fWAR gives another compelling argument, as he reached 4.9 in ten straight seasons and topped 7.0 three times, but I understand some don't buy into that statistic and I think the case is pretty compelling even without it. All time great defender, over 400 home runs, nearly 400 doubles, and over 150 stolen bases puts him in for me.

3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012, 35.3% in 2020)
Career: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games
Postseason: 5 HR, .220/.302/.376, 0 SB, 78 wRC+ in 39 games
Best season (2004): 34 HR, .314/.409/.598, 4 SB, 159 wRC+, 9.0 fWAR in 142 games
On the surface, Rolen doesn't look like a Hall of Famer. He was a very good hitter with "just" 316 home runs, an unremarkable .281 batting average, and a sub-.500 slugging percentage, a very good defender who picked up eight Gold Glove awards but wasn't quite Andruw Jones or Omar Vizquel out there, and only topped 150 games in a season five times. That sounds like a slam-dunk "Hall of Very Good" case to me. But the more you think about it, the better the package looks. The era in which he played was chock full of superstars, but across baseball, how many players in the late 90's/00's could match both his bat and his glove? Maybe Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr., but Griffey was already slowing down by the time Rolen came around and you'd have to really love A-Rod's glove to call it better than Rolen's. Rolen really was a superb defender that could impact the game from third base throughout his career, making entire infields around him better from the late 90's Phillies to even the early 10's Reds. On top of that, I think his bat was more than just "good." From 1997-2004, he had more than 20 home runs and at least a .357 on-base percentage in all eight seasons, then topped those numbers again in 2006. Rolen had six seasons in his career in which he hit 25 home runs with at least a .370 on-base percentage, and narrowly missed a seventh. In 2004, he had a truly Hall of Fame-worthy season with 34 home runs and a .314/.409/.598 slash line to go with elite defense, which caps it off for me. I won't die on the hill that Rolen is a Hall of Famer, but to me, his combination of a very good glove, a very good bat, and an elite 2004 season are just enough to push him over the edge.

RF Bobby Abreu (1996-2014, 5.5% in 2020)
Career: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games
Postseason: 1 HR, .284/.392/.418, 2 SB, 111 wRC+ in 20 games
Best season (1999): 20 HR, .335/.446/.549, 27 SB, 6.3 fWAR in 152 games
I've had a fairly similar thought process on Bobby Abreu as I had on Scott Rolen. On the surface, he looks like he belongs in the Hall of Very Good. He hit fewer than 300 home runs, slugged well below .500, and didn't have Rolen's elite defense. However, the longer I look at his case, the more I buy in. There's just something to be said for consistency, and if anything, Abreu was consistent. In 13 straight seasons from 1998-2010, Abreu topped 150 games, hit at least 15 home runs, stole at least 19 bases, clubbed at least 29 doubles, and never posted an on-base percentage below .352. Zoom in a little bit closer to his peak, and the numbers get even more impressive. In a seven year stretch from 1999-2005, he hit at least 20 home runs, stole at least 22 bases, clubbed at least 35 doubles, and never had an OBP below .393. There were no true superstar seasons in there, but for a very long period of time without exception, Abreu was a true power, speed, and on-base threat, and as far as we know, he did it cleanly in an era where many players did not. As with Rolen, I won't die on this hill, but I see a very compelling case here, especially with that .395 on-base percentage that topped .420 three times.

RF Gary Sheffield (1988-2009, 30.5% in 2020)
Career: 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR in 2576 games
Postseason: 6 HR, .248/.401/.398, 1 SB, 120 wRC+ in 44 games
Best season (1996): 42 HR, .314/.465/.624, 16 SB, 185 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR in 161 games
Gary Sheffield might have the most complicated Hall of Fame case on the ballot, and he was the last player that I was able to come to a decision on. I'm extremely on the fence but decided to put him in. Firstly, I'll address Sheffield's reputation as a locker room cancer – while it obviously doesn't help his case, I'm not going to hold it against him. I'm here to judge how he impacted the game, not whether I'd want to have a beer with him. Next off, there's the question of steroids. He admitted to using "the cream" on his bum knee in the early 2000's, though claims (somewhat unconvincingly) that he didn't know it was a steroid. He was also named in the Mitchell Report, but to my knowledge, there's no concrete proof that he ever did anything beyond using "the cream." I'll come back to the steroids when I'm done with his accomplishments
Steroids aside, I see Sheffield as a Hall of Famer. As with Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu, I wouldn't die on that hill, but I feel fully comfortable, in fact more comfortable than with those two. Even if he was a poor defender, we have a man who crushed over 500 home runs with an on-base percentage near .400. He had eight seasons with over 30 home runs, had six qualified seasons with at least a 154 wRC+, had an on-base percentage over .400 in eight straight seasons, and was one of the very best hitters in baseball from 1995-2003. To me, that's a very convincing Hall of Fame resume. Now, let's talk steroids. If he was more borderline in his case, the steroids would disqualify him. And if he used steroids more than just "the cream" for a few years, I wouldn't vote for him either. But we don't (or at least I don't) know the answer to that question, and I believe in "innocent until proven guilty." After a lot of careful thought, he gained my vote, but just barely.

LF Barry Bonds (1986-2007, 60.7% in 2020)
Career: 762 HR, .298/.444/.607, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR in 2986 games
Postseason: 9 HR, .245/.433/.503, 9 SB, 141 wRC+ in 48 games
Best season (2001): 73 HR, .328/.515/.863, 13 SB, 235 wRC+, 12.5 fWAR in 153 games
I don't need to sell anybody on Barry Bonds' numbers. Steroids aside, you can count on one hand the players that can even compare to what Bonds did. I also don't need to sell anybody that he would have been a Hall of Famer without steroids. If you think he might not have been, you're grossly underselling his elite batting eye, approach at the plate, hand-eye coordination, and early career speed. So the only question here is whether you think steroids should disqualify one of the greatest players of all time, which I discussed here. In summary, as much as I hate it, cheating has always been a part of baseball and on top of that, it was encouraged during the Steroid Era.
Okay, now that that's done with, let's just marvel at some of Bonds' career stats. He is the all time leader in home runs (762) and walks (2558) and ranks behind only Babe Ruth in fWAR (164.4). He's third all time in runs scored (2227), fifth in wRC+ (173), and sixth in RBI (1996). From 1928-2000, not a single player could tally more than 11.8 fWAR in a season. Over the course of four seasons from 2001-2004, Bonds did it three times. By wRC+, three of the top four seasons in all of history belong to Bonds, including number one (244 in 2002). In that four season stretch from 2001-2004, Bonds clobbered 209 home runs and slashed .349/.559/.809 with a 232 wRC+ and 47.3 fWAR in 573 games. That 47.3 fWAR over four seasons was more than Mark Grace (45.5), Nellie Fox (45.2), Kirby Puckett (44.9), or Dale Murphy (44.3) had in their entire careers. It cannot possibly be overstated how good Barry Bonds was at hitting baseballs.

RHP Roger Clemens (1984-2007, 61.0% in 2020)
Career: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB in 4916.2 IP
Postseason: 12-8, 3.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 173/70 K/BB in 199 IP
Best season (1997): 21-7, 2.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 292/68 K/BB in 264 IP
With Roger Clemens, we have a similar story to Barry Bonds above. He's not a top-five player of all time like his counterpart, but steroids aside, he is far and away qualified. There's no doubt in anybody's mind that he would be a Hall of Famer without steroids. And given that he was up against lineups full of cheating players, it's hard to blame him for cheating, as much as I hate it. Read my full thoughts on steroids here.
Steroids aside, we can appreciate Clemens' numbers. He topped 210 innings fourteen times in his career, had eleven qualified seasons with an ERA below 3.00, and topped 230 strikeouts eight times. In terms of career strikeouts, only Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson have more, but Clemens had a lower ERA than both of them. He's seventh on the all time list with 707 career starts, too. Maybe not quite in the all time top tier, but he's certainly one of the all time greats.

No Votes

1B Todd Helton (1997-2013, 29.2% in 2020)
Career: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games
Postseason: 0 HR, .211/.303/.281, 0 SB, 48 wRC+ in 15 games
Best season (2000): 42 HR, .372/.463/.698, 5 SB, 162 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR in 160 games
Todd Helton only narrowly misses my ballot. From 1999-2005, he was one of the very best hitters in baseball, slashing .341/.442/.621 with 241 home runs and a 152 wRC+ in 1092 games. That wRC+, which corrects for the "Coors effect," was the sixth best in baseball in that span over no small sample size. Narrow it by one year to 2000-2005, and his 156 wRC+ was fifth best in baseball to start the millennium. That's absolutely a Hall of Fame piece of the resume, but for a first baseman, I'm looking for just a bit more. From 2006 onwards, he hit .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs and a 112 wRC+ over 968 games, which as a first baseman in Coors Field, meant he only provided 10.6 fWAR from his age-32 season onwards. So we're left with a tale of two careers with Helton, beginning with an exceptional run from 1999-2005 followed by an unremarkable one from 2006-2013. Had he played shortstop or even a strong right field, I think that first half of his career would be enough to push him into the Hall, but the bar is higher for first basemen and Helton falls just short on the longevity aspect.

RHP Tim Hudson (1999-2015, first year on ballot)
Career: 222-133, 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2080/917 K/BB in 3126.2 IP
Postseason: 1-4, 3.69 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 53/22 K/BB in 75.2 IP
Best season (2003): 16-7, 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 162/61 K/BB in 240 IP
Tim Hudson is another one who is very close. Starting straight from his rookie year, he was a true standout in the Oakland rotation from 1999-2003 and popped back for big seasons with the Braves in 2007, 2010, and 2011. Outside of those seasons, he was still a very solid #2/#3-type starter, and in the end you have a really nice profile as a pitcher with ten qualified seasons with an ERA below 3.60. However, save for maybe his best season in 2003, Hudson was never a star. That's not straight up disqualifying, as we saw with Bobby Abreu, but I'm going to need either more consistency or more longevity if I'm going to overlook that. Abreu had the consistency, Scott Rolen had that huge 2004 season, and a guy like Derek Jeter had the longevity that just bumped them into the Hall. Hudson, as a whole, as a resume that's just a little bit light. We knew we were watching a perennial All Star when Hudson was on the mound, don't think anybody thought they were watching a Hall of Famer. In my opinion, we weren't.

LHP Mark Buehrle (2000-2015, first year on ballot)
Career: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 1870/734 K/BB in 3283.1 IP
Postseason: 2-1, 4.11 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 16/1 K/BB in 30.2 IP
Best season (2005): 16-8, 3.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 149/40 K/BB in 236.2 IP
I still don't think Mark Buehrle is a Hall of Famer, but his case actually gets a lot more intriguing the more you look at it. On the surface, he was a pitch-to-contact guy who never had an ERA below 3.12 and finished at 3.81 for his career while spending most of it in the weaker AL Central. He was never a true ace for more than a few months at a time, but the key here is consistency. Buehrle put in fourteen consecutive seasons of at least 200 innings, and narrowly missed a fifteenth with 198.2 in 2015. In those fifteen seasons from 2001-2015, only once did he post an ERA above 4.28, and never did he walk more than 6.2% of his opponents. He was an elite defender, was the best pitcher on the 2005 World Series Champion White Sox team, and threw a perfect game in 2009. There is really something to be said for a decade and a half of exceptional reliability and exceptional consistency, and I really hope he doesn't fall off the ballot in the first year. However, he was never elite for even one season, so he won't get my vote.

LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013, 11.3% in 2020)
Career: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 IP
Postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 IP
Best season (2005): 17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 171/41 K/BB in 222.1 IP
Andy Pettitte is yet another pitcher who just misses for me. He put up excellent seasons in 1997 and 2005 and was very good in a few other seasons, and there's something to be said for the longevity it takes to put up ten seasons of 200+ innings and three more of 185+. He was also on the mound for 276.2 innings in the postseason, holding his own with a 3.81 ERA against plenty of very strong lineups. That's all great, but for the majority of his career, Pettitte was much more a steady than imposing force in the Yankees and Astros rotations. In more than half of his qualified seasons, his ERA was above 4.00, and he regularly got hit around with career opponents' batting average of .269 and a 1.35 WHIP. The longevity is great, the important role on some great teams is a plus, and he popped for a couple of great seasons, but Andy Pettitte is a #3 starter at heart. The Hall of Fame is for aces and long-term, consistent #2's.

2B Jeff Kent (1992-2008, 27.5% in 2020)
Career: 377 HR, .290/.356/.500, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR in 2298 games
Postseason: 9 HR, .276/.340/.500, 1 SB, 119 wRC+ in 49 games
Best season (2000): 33 HR, .334/.424/.596, 12 SB, 159 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR in 159 games
Jeff Kent is another one that's really close, one that I gave significant thought to before ultimately deciding "no." He put up nine consecutive seasons of more than 20 home runs and at least 34 doubles from 1997-2005 and topped 30 home runs three times. In 2000 and 2002, he popped for exceptional seasons and won the NL MVP Award in the former while reaching the World Series in the latter. But while he was an extra base hit machine for the better part of a decade, popping for an OBP as high as .424 in 2000, is that enough? I see a nice, sustained peak, but it's the kind that would need a little more longevity sandwiched on either side of it. Outside of that 1997-2005 stretch, he was solid but unspectacular leading up to it and didn't play after 2008. Seventeen years is a nice career, especially since he played over 100 games in each, but I would have liked to have seen just a little bit more given his peak was more "great" than "elite."

SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012, 52.6% in 2020)
Career: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games
Postseason: 0 HR, .250/.327/.316, 23 SB, 70 wRC+ in 57 games
Best season (1999): 5 HR, .333/.397/.436, 42 SB, 115 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 144 games
Omar Vizquel follows similar logic to Andruw Jones as an all-time great defender whose offensive numbers don't quite stack up. However, the difference between Vizquel and Jones is that Jones hit 434 home runs, while Vizquel was a non-factor in the lineup. His combination of exceptional glovework and longevity buys the bat as much slack as possible, but in my opinion, it's not enough. From 1989-2007, he had sixteen full seasons out of nineteen, itself an accomplishment, but his bat was a virtual black hole in the Seattle, Cleveland, and San Francisco lineups around him at a time when offense was at a premium. In those sixteen full seasons, his bat was only league average or better twice, reaching double digits in home runs just once. His best offensive attribute was his speed, and he deployed it well at times with four straight seasons of at least 35 stolen bases from 1996-1999, but he never registered a .400 on-base percentage and only twice even got above .362. I'm sorry, but even if he came within 123 hits of 3000, his bat was mediocre at best.

LF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011, 28.2% in 2020)
Career: 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR in 2302 games
Postseason: 29 HR, .285/.394/.544, 1 SB, 140 wRC+ in 111 games
Best season (1999): 44 HR, .333/.442/.663, 2 SB, 172 wRC+, 7.5 fWAR in 147 games
I briefly touched on my thoughts on Manny Ramirez in my steroid primer, but I'll go back over them here. Taken objectively, his numbers make him a pretty clear-cut Hall of Famer, even if his defense was poor. 555 career home runs, twelve 30 homer seasons, ten with an on-base percentage over .400, and plenty of postseason performance add up to a Hall of Fame resume. From 1994-2010, he put up seventeen straight seasons with at least a 120 wRC+, and fifteen of those were 140 or higher. But in 2009, he failed a PED test, and in 2011, he failed another. Both were late in his career, after he had already eclipsed 500 home runs and proven himself a Hall of Famer. If it had been just the 2009 test, perhaps I could give him the benefit of the doubt and buy that he had just made a mistake. But after the 2011 test, his whole career gets called into question. Plenty of his best production came during the Steroid Era – was he cheating then? He doesn't have the Bonds or Clemens-like resume that proves him to be a clear-cut Hall of Famer with or without steroids. He tested positive twice after the rules were clearly laid out, so I'm out.

RF Sammy Sosa (1989-2007, 13.9% in 2020)
Career: 609 HR, .273/.344/.534, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR in 2354 games
Postseason: 2 HR, .245/.403/.415, 1 SB, 110 wRC+ in 15 games
Best season (2001): 64 HR, .328/.437/.737, 0 SB, 186 wRC+, 9.9 fWAR in 160 games
Sosa is another name that falls victim to the steroid problem. The allegations against him aren't as strong as they are against Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Manny Ramirez, but nonetheless they're stronger than those against Gary Sheffield, whom I voted for. Sosa reportedly tested positive in 2003, and of course there was the corked bat incident. If he had built a convincing, Ramirez-like case, I might have put more consideration into it, but unfortunately he's fairly borderline anyways. From 1998-2001, when he was likely juicing, he put together one of the most impressive offensive stretches in baseball history, slashing .310/.396/.662 with 243 home runs, including totals of 66, 63, 50, and 64. However, for the most part, Sosa was a one dimensional player. He hit a lot of home runs, but he only twice topped a .400 on-base percentage, never put up 40 doubles in a season, and provided very little defensive value. That one tool would likely be enough to carry him into the Hall if it had been clean, but his only tool was tainted and he doesn't have enough to make up for it.

Hall of Fame 2020: My Ballot

There are a couple of big storylines here for the 2020 Hall of Fame ballot, so I'll list out my thoughts on those real quick before we get started.

First off, steroids. My take on steroid users in the Hall has evolved over time, but it's also stayed the same in a lot of ways. I don't think cheaters deserve to be in the Hall, and for a while, I strongly opposed the induction of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens on that basis. I still do – the Hall is 90% about performance, but at least a small part should be about playing the game the right way, and I mean that in the loosest sense of the term, as in at the very least playing by the rules. Bonds and Clemens didn't meet that standard. However, neither did Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, or a lot of other Hall of Famers from that era who used amphetamines. And what about Hall of Famers like Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza, who probably juiced but were never caught? The juicing question is something I'll never come to a satisfactory answer to, at least one up to my own satisfaction, so I landed on a compromise of sorts: I'll vote for Bonds and Clemens, but only in their tenth and final year of eligibility. That seems fair, I guess, right? Kind of? We'll go with that one.

Secondly, the Jeter-only ballots. A few writers have already released their ballots and showed that they voted only for Derek Jeter in the belief that he should be elected alone. Seriously?? Derek Jeter a) is not even close to being a Ruthian, Maysian, Ted Williams-ian inner-circle Hall of Famer, and b) far, far, far from the only deserving player on the ballot. Especially given that Larry Walker is in his last year of eligibility and can't simply "wait until next year" to get elected. Voting for Jeter alone might be the dumbest thing I've ever seen on a Hall of Fame ballot, and the bar was already pretty high on that one.

Now, here's my ballot, in the rough order of who I think is the most deserving. Wagner, Walker, and Schilling are all about equally deserving to me, so their order is more arbitrary. It's a shallower year for the HoF ballot and there are no true Griffey-like or Maddux-like standouts, and I'm a small Hall guy, so I went with six players.

1. Billy Wagner (1995-2010)

Career: 47-40, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 198.17 RE24, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 IP

Best season (1999): 4-1, 1.57 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 24.79 RE24, 124/23 K/BB in 74.2 IP

Billy Wagner is at least the third greatest closer of all time, and I'd even argue that he's number two behind Mariano Rivera alone. At the very least, I can't possibly wrap my head around any possible justification for electing Trevor Hoffman and leaving Wagner with less than 20% of the votes. Over the course of his 16 year career, he put up 13 seasons of at least 45 innings pitched, a sub-3.00 ERA, a sub-1.20 WHIP, and more than 50 strikeouts in relief. He did all this while pitching through the heart of the steroid era, and yet his career numbers still come up among the best ever. Among relievers with at least 500 innings pitched, he's fourth ERA (2.31), WHIP (1.00), and strikeout percentage (33.2%), despite all of those ahead of him in the latter category having pitched in a very different, much more strikeout-heavy era. He also has the second best relief-RE24 ever, behind only Mariano Rivera, meaning that he's kept more "expected runs" off the board than even Hoffman in more than 180 fewer innings. To say Wagner doesn't belong in the Hall is really to say that relievers in general don't belong in the Hall, because Rivera is the only one ever that we can confidently say was better.

2. Larry Walker (1989-2005)

Career: 383 HR, .313/.400/.565, 230 SB, 140 wRC+, 68.7 fWAR in 1988 games

Best season (1997): 49 HR, .366/.452/.720, 33 SB, 177 wRC+, 9.1 fWAR in 153 games

Walker is in his last season of eligibility, and it really shouldn't have taken this long. He hit nearly 400 home runs, held a .400 on-base percentage through his career, and stole over 200 bases while playing solid outfield defense. Of course some of those numbers are inflated by playing his home games at Coors Field, but really, could we stick some non-Hall of Famer in Coors Field from 1997-1999 and watch slash .369/.451/.689 over three full seasons? I'll answer that for you, no. And if we want to go to stats that alter for home park, Walker's 140 career wRC+ ranks 69th all time among players with at least 5000 plate appearances – that's ahead of mashers like Albert Belle (139), Reggie Jackson (139), and Vladimir Guerrero (136), among many others. Splitting his stats home vs road the traditional way, he did slash .348/.431/.637 with 215 home runs at home but also .278/.370/.495 with 168 home runs on the road – that's still a 336 home run pace with a high on-base percentage on the road, even though Coors Field has been shown to negatively affect hitters' road performance, not just positively impact their home stats. He's a Hall of Famer to me and a pretty clear one.

3. Curt Schilling (1988-2007)
Career: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB in 3261 IP
Best season (2002): 23-7, 3.23 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 316/33 K/BB in 259.1 IP
A lot of people in the media won't vote for Curt Schilling because they don't like him. That's stupid and that's all I'm going to say on the matter. For a ten year period from 1995-2004, right through the heart of the steroid era, Schilling was untouchable for the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox, going 148-86 with a 3.25 ERA and a 2241/423 strikeout to walk ratio over 2123.2 innings. In that decade-long span, 92 pitchers threw at least 1000 innings, and Schilling's 3.25 mark over 2000+ innings ranked behind only Pedro Martinez (2.67), Randy Johnson (2.70), Kevin Brown (2.79), Greg Maddux (2.89), and John Smoltz (2.96), the latter of whom spent time time as a closer anyways. Over that span, Schilling also ranked third in strikeouts (behind Johnson and Martinez), reached 300 strikeouts in a season three times, and out-pitched Roger Clemens (3.46 ERA, 2116/768 K/BB). He was also effective for his ten non-prime years, and he finished his career with a 3.46 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and 3116 strikeouts in 3261 innings despite pitching straight through the heart of the steroid era. He was even more effective in the postseason, going 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 120/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.1 innings, picking up the 1993 NLCS MVP and the 2001 World Series MVP. To me, he's a no brainer.

4. Derek Jeter (1995-2014)
Career: 260 HR, .310/.377/.440, 358 SB, 119 wRC+, 73.0 fWAR in 2747 games
Best season (1999): 24 HR, .349/.438/.552, 19 SB, 156 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR in 158 games
Jeter's Hall of Fame case to me is more about longevity than peak value. Aside from a couple seasons here and there, he was never truly elite, reaching 5.0 fWAR in a season just five times in twenty years, but he was a consistently above average player for a very long time and put up 13 straight seasons with at least 3.4 fWAR from 1997-2009. He also had an extensive postseason career with a .308/.374/.465 line, 20 home runs, and 18 stolen bases (121 wRC+) in 158 games, about in line with his career averages, and he won five World Series as part of some stacked Yankees teams that also included Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera and Mike Mussina. Media coverage aside, while his on-field play looked pretty borderline Hall of Fame level for much of his career, the end result was well over 3000 hits, 500 doubles, 250 home runs, 350 stolen bases, 1000 walks, and 73.0 total fWAR over 20 years. The longevity and consistency he displayed earned him his spot in the Hall.

5. Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Career: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games
Best season (2000): 36 HR, .303/.366/.541, 21 SB, 127 wRC+, 7.7 fWAR in 161 games
Jones doesn't get nearly the attention he deserves on this ballot, especially with the way voters talk about a similar player, Omar Vizquel. While Vizquel was an all-time glove with a mediocre bat, Jones was an all-time glove with an above average bat. While he wasn't a first tier or even a second tier hitter in his time, he was still a very valuable bat that was at least 12% better than league average eight times in nine years from 1998-2006. He also put up four straight 20-20 seasons, totaled seven 30+ home run seasons, and topped out with a 134 wRC+ in 2005. Of course, those offensive stats only qualify him for the Hall of Very Good, but when your glove is as absolutely elite as his is, I'd call him a Hall of Famer. Fangraphs only began tracking UZR in 2002, which cuts out five full seasons of his career, but his 126.4 UZR still ranks second only to Ichiro since then and his 17.4 UZR per 150 games is first by a long shot over second place Mookie Betts (14.3) and by an even longer shot over third place Jason Heyward (11.9). It's hard to prove, but there's a case to be made that Jones is up there with Willie Mays as one of the top couple of defensive outfielders ever to play the game, and unlike Omar Vizquel, he can actually hit.

6. Scott Rolen (1996-2012)
Career: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games
Best season (2004): 34 HR, .314/.409/.598, 159 wRC+, 9.0 fWAR in 142 games
I'm a small-Hall guy, and Rolen is pretty borderline for me. On this shallow ballot though, I'll include him in my sixth and final slot that I'm using. Rolen wasn't necessarily elite on either side of the ball – he was a very good hitter and a very good defender. Does that equal Hall of Fame? It's really close, especially since his career barely cracked 2000 games. I'll go with yes for now, as he still finished with over 500 doubles, 300 home runs, 100 stolen bases, a high on-base percentage, and great defense. From 1997-2004, an eight year period where he slashed ..287/.379/.524 with 222 home runs and 91 stolen bases, he was third in all of baseball with 48.0 fWAR, trailing only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez and topping guys like Chipper Jones, Jeff Bagwell, Derek Jeter, and Manny Ramirez in their primes. He didn't have the longevity of some of his counterparts, but the more you look at his case, the harder it is to say that Rolen is not a Hall of Famer.

Close Calls

- Bobby Abreu (1996-2014)
Career: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games
Best season (2004): 30 HR, .301/.428/.544, 40 SB, 148 wRC+, 5.7 fWAR in 159 games
Abreu, like Rolen, is so close, but he falls just a bit short for me. He was a great player with a power/speed/on-base combination that few could match and he rarely got hurt, but the whole package is just a bit light for the Hall of Fame. He wasn't an elite power hitter, hitting more than 25 home runs in a season just twice, he wasn't an elite base stealer, cracking 35 stolen bases just twice, and he was just an okay defender in right field. Now on the other hand, he was a great on-base player who finished near .400 for his career. He was never elite, but he had an on-base percentage above .400 eight times in nine years from 1998-2006 and only narrowly missed it with a .393 mark in 2001, he had seven straight 20-20 seasons from 1999-2005 (and two more in 2008 and 2010), and he was a two time 30-30 player. He's a shoo-in for the Hall of Very Good, but unfortunately, he just misses the Hall of Fame for me.

- Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Career: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games
Best season (2000): 42 HR, .372/.463/.698, 5 SB, 162 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR in 160 games
Helton is another close one because he's probably the greatest player in Rockies history (while Larry Walker beat him in production, Helton made up for it in longevity with the team). And through 2005, even though he was a first baseman playing in Coors Field, he hit plenty enough to be on a Hall of Fame track with a .337/.433/.607 line, 271 home runs, and 44.3 fWAR in 1279 games. However, because all of his talent was tied to his bat and because his 148 wRC+ was 14th in baseball from 1998-2005, he probably had to keep hitting after his 32nd birthday in 2005 in order to get himself over the hump. However, from 2006 to the end of his career in 2013, he slashed .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs and 10.6 fWAR over those final 968 games. Those aren't awful numbers for the end of a career, but for a first baseman who wasn't elite with the glove (though he was solid there for much of his career), I'd like to see a bit longer of a prime than eight years, or at least not see him taper off so quickly.

- Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Career: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games
Best season (1999): 5 HR, .333/.397/.436, 42 SB, 115 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 144 games
To me, Andruw Jones is a Hall of Famer, but Omar Vizquel is not. Both were elite, perhaps all-time defenders, but Jones could hit (111 wRC+) and Vizquel could not (83 wRC+). His glove was truly elite, and he's up there with Ozzie Smith as one of the greatest defensive shortstops of all time. And while Smith wasn't a great hitter either (90 wRC+), he played at a time where the game was a bit more pitcher-friendly and teams weren't scoring five to six runs a game. Vizquel's complete lack of power and average on-base skills were a black hole in the Mariners, Indians, and Giants lineups he was a part of when every team was launching the ball out of the park. Even in his best offensive season, 1999, he still failed to reach a .400 on-base percentage. I completely respect Vizquel's glove and I searched his offensive stats looking for something I could consider "good enough" to put him in the Hall, but stealing 30 bases a year isn't enough.

- Andy Pettitte (1995-2013)
Career: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 IP
Best season (2005): 17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 171/41 K/BB in 222.1 IP
Pettitte is certainly in the 90's/00's Hall of Very Good rotation, as he was as reliable a mid-rotation starter as they came for the Yankees and Astros who also popped for a couple of ace-like seasons in 1997 (18-7, 2.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) and 2005 (17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). He threw over 3000 innings while keeping his ERA under 4.00 despite pitching through the steroid era, threw at least 175 innings in 15 separate seasons, and had plenty of postseason success (19-11, 3.81 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 IP). However, in an era that also included Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Roy Halladay, and Johan Santana, it's hard to justify Pettitte as a Hall of Famer despite being a mid-rotation talent for most of his career.

Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens: See top of article.

Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, Manny Ramirez: These players all have varying levels of allegations of steroid use, and while a lot of it is speculation, they all have fairly borderline cases even without considering the steroid usage. I'm both extremely anti-cheater and anti-speculation at the same time, but with their cases already being borderline, the steroid usage knocks them off my ballot.

Hall of Fame 2019: My Ballot

With the BBWAA ballots announced and some time cleared up in my academic schedule, I have gotten to work on my hypothetical ballot if I were able to cast one.

Primer on my view on steroids:
My view on steroids has evolved slightly over time, though not by much. I am still against steroid users in the Hall of Fame, because as someone who treats integrity as my number one value, I can't stand liars, cheaters, and such. While I'm against using the "character clause" as it pertains to non-baseball related issues (such as Curt Schilling's dumb tweets or Ty Cobb's racism) to keep players out of the Hall of Fame, I will absolutely invoke it for on-field issues, such as cheating to get ahead of your fellow players. We all know Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would have gotten into the Hall without steroids, but the fact that they chose to use them compromised the integrity of the game, and that's not worth honoring. That said, over the past year, my views have evolved a little bit. Steroids were extremely widespread back then and allegedly even encouraged by league officials, and the truth is that we will never know exactly who juiced and why they did it. So, I filled out my ballot first with non-steroid users, and because I had two free spots, I put down Bonds and Clemens because I am certain they would be Hall of Famers without cheating.

1. RHP Mariano Rivera (1995-2013): 82-60, 2.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1173/286 K/BB, 1283.2 IP
This one is easy. Mariano Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher who ever lived, and I don't know who would even try to argue that. Among relievers, Mariano leads in fWAR (39.2), RE24 (352.62), and if you believe in "clutch," win-probability added (55.75), and none of those three are even close. Between 1996 and 2013, Mariano posted an ERA above 2.85 just once, when he had a 3.15 ERA for the 2007 Yankees at the age of 37. Not that saves matter, but he's also the all-time leader there with 652. In the postseason, where he has made 96 appearances (more than any other pitcher in history by a long shot), he has a 0.70 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP, and a 110/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 innings. The ERA is also the best of all time and the WHIP is fourth, so an argument can be made that Rivera is the greatest postseason pitcher of all time. There's really not much to argue here, just a lot to appreciate.

2. DH Edgar Martinez (1987-2004): 309 HR, .312/.418/.515, 49 SB, 147 wRC+, 65.5 fWAR
Edgar Martinez's enshrinement in the Hall of Fame is long, long overdue, and this is his tenth and final year on the ballot so it better happen. To paraphrase what I said last year, Martinez's bat was so valuable that even though he provided no defensive value whatsoever throughout his career, he is a clear Hall of Famer. Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Willie Stargell were all butchers in the outfield, and probably would have helped their teams more as a DH like Edgar, and nobody questions their Hall of Fame cases. Edgar wasn't a Ruthian or Williams-esque hitter, but the point is simply being a DH should not disqualify you from the Hall. His 147 wRC+, which adjusts for the fact that he played in an offense-heavy era, is still the 33rd best of all time, and his .418 on-base percentage sits in 21st. Yeah he only cleared 30 home runs once, but with 514 career doubles including eight seasons of at least 35 or more, going along with eight 20 homer seasons, he was one of the top hitters of the era. From 1995-2001, he never posted an on-base percentage below .423 or a slugging percentage below .543. Put Edgar Martinez in the Hall of Fame please and thank you.

3. RHP Roy Halladay (1998-2013): 203-105, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2117/592 K/BB, 2749.1 IP
Halladay isn't quite a shoe-in, but I think he's a worthwhile Hall of Famer and I don't see that as a particularly controversial statement. After a couple of big years in 2002 and 2003 and a down year in 2004, he was the best pitcher in baseball from 2005-2011, going 121-53 with a 2.82 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 1232/239 strikeout to walk ratio over that stretch. He led all pitchers (min. 500 IP) in fWAR (42.1), ERA, WHIP, complete games (51), and shutouts (14), was third in innings (1556.1) and walk rate (3.8%), and sixth in strikeouts. As good as C.C. Sabathia was, Halladay might be the last truly great workhorse that Major League Baseball ever sees, what with starting pitchers throwing fewer and fewer innings every year. Throw in his 2010 perfect game and postseason no-hitter, and Halladay is a deserving Hall of Famer.

4. RHP Mike Mussina (1991-2008): 270-153, 3.68 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2813/785 K/BB, 3562.2 IP
Look past Mussina's relatively inflated ERA and you will find a pitcher who dominated in some of the toughest non-Coors contexts in baseball history, pitching his entire career in the tough American League East around the Steroid Era, first in Baltimore's hitter-friendly Camden Yards then in New York's hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. His 82 career ERA- puts him in the company of John Smoltz (81), Juan Marichal (81), Bob Feller (82), and Ron Guidry (83), and he did it while throwing over 3500 innings. In fact, from 1992-2008, he went seventeen straight seasons without failing to throw at least 152 innings, making him as dependable as they come for nearly two decades. He was also a great postseason pitcher, going 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a strong 145/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 139.2 innings, which is not as eye-popping as Mariano Rivera's performance but certainly worthy of notice against the strongest teams of the Steroid Era. ERA is not everything.

5. RHP Curt Schilling (1988-2007): 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB, 3261 IP
Honestly, I believe the main reason that Curt Schilling is not in the Hall of Fame is that he likes to mouth off on Twitter. His numbers don't lie: a 3.46 ERA over more than 3000 innings in hitters' ballparks in the Steroid Era, three separate 300 strikeout seasons, and eight different full seasons with sub-3.30 ERA's in that tough context. From 1997-2004, he was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, going 132-71 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 1945/347 strikeout to walk ratio over 1824.1 innings in those tough, hitter-friendly contexts. Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson may have been better, but Schilling also managed big years in 1992, 1993, 1996, and 2006, all outside of that range. The longevity combined with the peak give me a Hall of Fame case for Schilling.

6. CF Andruw Jones (1996-2012): 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 66.9 fWAR
Jones may have only been a good hitter rather than a great one, but he was a legendary defender in center field and I think the bat was enough to get him over the hump. I'm not a big fan of putting light hitting, defense-first players into the Hall, but Jones wasn't a light hitter and that defense was considered legendary by those who saw him play (unfortunately, his early 2000's prime was just before my time as someone born in 1997 so I am limited to highlights and data). With the bat, Jones hit more than 25 home runs in ten straight seasons from 1998-2007, posting an on-base percentage above .310 in all of them. From 1998-2006, nine straight seasons, Jones was worth at least 4.9 fWAR in each season, three times getting to at least 7.0 fWAR. Elite defense in an all-time context to go with above average offensive production for a decade, plus marginal production on either side of that decade, adds up to a Hall of Famer in my book.

7. LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010): 47-40, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB, 903 IP
In my opinion, if Trevor Hoffman is in the Hall of Fame (which I believe he should be), there is no reason that Billy Wagner should not be in as well; Wagner was better. Aside from having a lower career ERA 2.31 to 2.87, Wagner put up more RE24 (198.2 to 179.7) than Hoffman in 185.1 fewer innings, and I believe RE24 (a cumulative statistic like fWAR, not a rate statistic like ERA) is a good indicator of a reliever's success. In fact, among all relievers ever, Wagner is second only to Mariano Rivera and his ridiculous 352.6 RE24. Wagner may not have been as consistent as Hoffman or Rivera, but he had four different full seasons with ERA's below 1.80 and and seven different full seasons (min. 40 IP) with a WHIP below 1.00. In 2010, his final year where he turned 39 mid-season, he posted a 1.43 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 104/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 69.1 innings for the Braves; that's the way for the best left handed reliever of all time to go out.

8. RF Larry Walker (1989-2005): 383 HR, .313/.400/.565, 230 SB, 140 wRC+, 68.7 fWAR
If you're going to play in Coors Field during the Steroid Era, you better put up some ridiculous numbers to get into the Hall of Fame. Well, he did. During his time there from 1995 to halfway through 2004, he slashed .334/.426/.618 with 258 home runs in 1170 games, good for a 147 wRC+. I think managing a slash line like that for an entire decade qualifies as ridiculous. Even from 1990-1994 with the Expos, before his prime and in a neutral context, he slashed .284/.359/.489 with 99 home runs and a 130 wRC+, so he clearly could hit. He could also field and run, and when you create a list of players with a 140 wRC+ (which erases Walker's Coors advantage), 200 stolen bases, and positive defensive value (according to Fangraphs), you find just eleven names: Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez, Tris Speaker, Honus Wagner, Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie, Roger Connor, John McGraw, and Walker. On that list, only Bonds, Rodriguez, and Walker are not in the Hall of Fame, and both Bonds and Rodriguez (once eligible) would be first ballot Hall of Famers if it weren't for steroids. Walker was a rare complete player and should be in the Hall.

9. LF Barry Bonds (1986-2007): 762 HR, .298/.444/.607, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR
With space available, Bonds made it onto my ballot. There's really no question about his skill; his numbers are among the most eye-popping in the history of baseball. With an all-time record 762 home runs and a ridiculous .298/.444/.607 slash line, he finished second all time with 164.4 fWAR, just four behind Babe Ruth's 168.4. No other player even has 150 fWAR (with apologies to Willie Mays and his 149.9). I could keep writing all day about his accomplishments, including the all time record for walks (2558) in addition to his home run record as well as the single season records for home runs (73), wRC+ (244), slugging percentage (.863), on-base percentage (.609), walks (232), and walk rate (37.6%).

10. RHP Roger Clemens (1984-2007): 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB, 4916.2 IP
While I believe Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez were the greatest pitchers of the era, perhaps only Maddux can match Clemens the longevity, consistency, and level of performance of Roger Clemens. Of course, it was partially steroid fueled, but for 24 seasons from the ages of 21 to 45, Clemens threw at least 98 innings in every single one while never once watching his ERA jump above 4.60 or his WHIP jump above 1.47, even at the height of the Steroid Era. He had twelve different seasons with an ERA below 3.00 and and struck out over 200 batters twelve times as well. Dropping the strikeout threshold to 185, he had sixteen such seasons. His seven Cy Young Awards, spanning 18 years between his first in 1986 and his final in 2004, are a record. Of course, nobody with Clemens it's not a question about performance, but about steroids.

Left Off

Steroid Users (see primer)
LF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011): 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR
RF Garry Sheffield (1988-2009): 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR
RF Sammy Sosa (1989-2007): 609 HR, .273/.344/.534, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR

3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012): 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR
For the second straight year, Scott Rolen was so, so close to making my ballot, but I ultimately decided not to pull the trigger. His argument is similar to that of Andruw Jones, with Rolen providing a little more offensive value and Jones providing a little more defensive value. Rolen played for seventeen years, clubbed over 300 home runs and finished with a nice .281/.364/.490 slash line, and his defense is universally regarded as excellent. He was worth 9.0 fWAR in a huge 2004 (34 HR, .314/.409/.598, typical great defense) and had three other seasons of more than six fWAR, but when you put it all together, I think a good hitter with very good defense and a career that ultimately tapered off in its second half (5.3 fWAR per year from 1997-2004 and 2.8 per year from 2005-2012) lands Rolen right on the border, and for now in the "Hall of Very Good."

LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013): 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB, 3316 IP
Andy Pettitte is the kind of guy who had a great career with lots of ups and who seemed like a Hall of Famer at the time, but looking back on the total product, it's not quite what it needs to be. He had some big years, such as 1997 (18-7, 2.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) and 2005 (17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), and he was also great in the postseason, going 19-11 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 276.2 innings. Along the way, he won six World Series and set the all time playoff records for wins, innings pitched, and games started (44). However, when you look at his career numbers, what you find in the regular season is a bunch of years with ERA's in the 4.00 range and just two full seasons (min. 150 IP) with an ERA below 3.74. As it turns out, he might be the most accomplished mid-rotation starter of all time.

1B Fred McGriff (1986-2004): 493 HR, .284/.377/.509, 72 SB, 134 wRC+, 56.9 fWAR)
With all due respect to the Crime Dog, 493 career home runs with an on-base percentage of .377 over a nineteen year career is certainly not too shabby and worthy of Hall of Fame consideration. However, for a first baseman who provided no value on defense, the beat was just a little light. His career high in home runs was 37 and in on-base percentage it was .405, and so he was never one of the best hitters in the game, even among non-steroid users. Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Thome, Edgar Martinez, and Frank Thomas had him out-shined there in the '90's. It's his final year on the ballot, and I just don't think "very good" cuts it with the bat when that's his only ticket in.

1B Todd Helton (1997-2013): 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 55.0 fWAR
The same rule applies to Helton as it applies to Larry Walker; he would need eye-popping numbers to get into the Hall of Fame due to his seventeen year tenure in Colorado, with the added pressure due to being a first baseman, albeit one with some solid defense. As it turns out, he was putting up those eye-popping numbers...briefly. From 2000-2004, Helton slashed .349/.450/.643 with 186 home runs and 34.4 fWAR; maintaining that kind of slash line over five full seasons is pretty incredible. However, after a pretty good 2005 (.320/.445/.534, 20 HR), he was just decent for the rest of his career and when you're a first baseman, that's not enough in my mind. It's easy to look at 369 home runs and a .414 on-base percentage and see Helton as a Hall of Famer, but given that he was a first baseman playing in Coors Field, I'd like a little more. Still, I want to appreciate his incredible 2000 season, where he hit 42 home runs and slashed .372/.463/.698 while walking way more (103 times) than he struck out (61 times), compiling 8.3 fWAR along the way.

1B Lance Berkman (1999-2013): 366 HR, .293/.406/.537, 86 SB, 144 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR
Berkman was a star at his peak, putting together four straight seasons with at least 6.0 fWAR from 2001-2004 then doing so again in 2006 and 2008, when he peaked at 7.7 fWAR, but he ultimately could not sustain his peak for long and was finished after fifteen seasons. The length of his career alone is not a disqualifying factor, but with a lack of defensive value, he would have needed just a bit better of a bat to overcome the lack of defense and longevity. At no point was Berkman really considered one of the top hitters in the game, so he misses.

Others of note: 2B Jeff Kent (56.1 fWAR), RHP Roy Oswalt (52.4), SS Omar Vizquel (42.4), RHP Derek Lowe (41.2), 2B Placido Polanco (38.4)

Hall of Fame 2018: My Take

The BBWAA just released its Hall of Fame ballot for 2018. I'll list out my hypothetical ballot with my reasoning behind selecting each player, then I'll talk about notable exclusions and why I would not vote for them.

A quick(ish) primer on my views on steroids:

There are three ways to look at steroid users: let them all in (if they have worthy statistics), let in only those who would have made the Hall of Fame without steroids (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens), or don't let in any. I strongly favor giving those who may or may not have taken steroids the benefit of the doubt, but for those where we know, I fall into the third category. The Hall of Fame honors baseball's greatest players, and while Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would certainly fit that label even if they stayed clean, the fact is that they knowingly broke the rules to gain an advantage. In 1991, Major League Baseball officially banned steroids, but a group of players, even if it was a large group of players, decided that the rules did not apply to them and that they could use steroids. They therefore were not only spitting on the game, but by playing by a different set of rules, were playing a different variation of the sport than the clean players and should not be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. The argument can be made that baseball was dying after the 1994 strike and that viewership was down, and that ownership pressured stars to use steroids to hit more home runs and save the sport, but I see those players more as martyrs than as victims; they still chose to cheat and corrupt the game. They played by a different set of rules and do not belong in the Hall of Fame.

My Ballot

1. Chipper Jones (468 HR, .303/.401/.529 slash, 150 SB, 141 wRC+, 84.6 fWAR)

This will be one of the two players we can all agree on. Chipper Jones played 20 years for the Atlanta Braves, crushing 468 home runs with an on-base percentage over .400 and good-enough defense at the hot corner. He was the NL MVP in 1999 when he slashed .319/.441/.633 with 45 home runs, good for a 165 wRC+ and 7.3 fWAR, and that year was far from an anomaly. I don't think anybody disagrees, so I'll use my words on the more controversial/borderline players.

2. Jim Thome (612 HR, .276/.402/.554 slash, 19 SB, 145 wRC+, 69.0 fWAR)

Jim Thome is the other uncontroversial player. He blasted 612 home runs over a 22 year career, and if that isn't enough to convince you on his own, he maintained a .402 career on-base percentage to make himself a true all-around threat at the plate. In 2002, he won the Roberto Clemente Award, and he was one of the few power hitters of the era to never be tied to steroids. Great guy, great hitter, Hall of Famer. Easy.

3. Edgar Martinez (309 HR, .312/.418/.515 slash, 49 SB, 147 wRC+, 65.5 fWAR)

If you don't think Edgar Martinez belongs in the Hall of Fame, you are wrong. It's true that he was a DH for most of his career and was a butcher in the field when he was out there, but how many times have you stopped and thought about Babe Ruth's defense? Or Ted Williams? Or Willie Stargell? They were all terrible, and if you're reaction is "well at least they played defense," I'm not exactly sure why going out into the field and hurting their team with their gloves is any better than DH'ing, and I'm sure they would have spent much of their careers at DH had the position been available. Now for Edgar's offense: his 147 career wRC+ places him 33rd all time, ahead of Mike Schmidt (147), Willie McCovey (145), Willie Stargell (145), Harmon Killebrew (142), Chipper Jones (141), Alex Rodriguez (141), Mike Piazza (140), and...you get it. Martinez didn't hit for as much power as some of the other guys, having only hit more than 30 home runs in a season once, but he was an on-base machine. His .418 on-base percentage ranks 21st all time, sandwiched between #20 Frank Thomas and #22 Stan Musial. Combine that with power, and he absolutely deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame.

4. Vladimir Guerrero (449 HR, .318/.379/.553 slash, 181 SB, 136 wRC+, 54.3 fWAR)

Vlad may have only played sixteen seasons, but he was a one-man wrecking crew at the plate nearly the entire time he was in the majors. For eleven years from 1998-2008, when offense in baseball was at its highest, Guerrero never posted a wRC+ below 129, meaning he was at worst 29% better at the plate than league average in any given year. He won the 2004 AL MVP by slashing .337/.391/.598 with 39 home runs, and that was only his fourth best season by fWAR (5.9) and his third best by wRC+ (154). Guerrero comes with significant faults away from his hitting, including his mediocre defense and his relative lack of longevity, but his prime, both in peak and length, matches up with almost any non-legendary hitter in the Hall. The only point of contention I have with his offense is his low walk rate (8.1% career) but his high batting average (.318) ensured that his on-base percentage would still be high enough (.379) and he hit for so much power that overall, I am not worried about the low walk rate. If anything, his tendency to swing at (and hit) everything got into pitchers heads enough that it could be seen as a bonus.

5. Andruw Jones (434 HR, .254/.337/.486 slash, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.1 fWAR)

Starting with Andruw Jones, I am less adamant about these next players, but I still believe they are Hall of Famers and would be included on my ballot accordingly. Jones wasn't a legendary hitter, slashing "just" .254/.337/.486 for his career and finishing with a 111 wRC+, just 11% above league average. He was average when it came to getting on base, had a good amount of pop (he did hit 51 home runs in 2005), and could steal a few bases. Offensively, that's an All Star package, but not a Hall of Fame one. Where Jones stood out was in center field, where he won ten straight Gold Gloves and was regarded as potentially the best ever. It's hard to quantify defense and even harder to compare quantified values with players from other eras, but in a time when hitters were blasting baseballs deep into the outfield, nothing fell around Jones in center field. Combine that with 434 home runs over 17 years, and Jones is a Hall of Famer.

6. Mike Mussina (270-153, 3.68 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2813/785 K/BB, 3562.2 IP)

A 3.68 career ERA doesn't necessarily scream "Hall of Famer," but Mike Mussina deserves the call. For eighteen years, he pitched in hitters' parks (first in Baltimore then in New York) in a hitters' era in a strong division. When you look away from the raw 3.68 ERA, his 82 career ERA- (adjusted to league average, park-adjusted, lower is better) is comparable to that of John Smoltz (81), Juan Marichal (81), Bob Feller (82), and Ron Guidry (83). I am not as confident in pitching WAR as I am in hitting WAR, but Mussina's 82.2 fWAR ranks him 17th all time among pitchers, behind #16 Bob Gibson and ahead of #18 Fergie Jenkins. He topped 150 innings for seventeen straight seasons from 1992-2008, making his starts every fifth day as dependably as anyone. Had he pitched his career in another era and another ballpark, his ERA could be half a run lower and he'd be a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame. Combine his longevity with his performance, and Mike Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame.

7. Curt Schilling (216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB, 3261 IP)

Schilling may not have been as consistent as Mussina, but he had higher peaks and overall, his numbers are about equal. His 79.8 fWAR is just behind Mussina's 82.2, ranking him 20th all time. His 80 ERA- is also just ahead of Mussina over slightly fewer innings. His peaks were incredible, as he put up four seasons of at least 7.2 fWAR, and in 2002, he racked up 9.3 by going 23-7 with a 3.23 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 316/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games (35 starts) in an extremely hitter-friendly Arizona ballpark in the middle of the Steroid Era. He also reached 300 strikeouts in 1997 and 1998. He had a bitter relationship with the media throughout his career, which has likely suppressed his votes, but I believe he has done enough to warrant a call to the Hall of Fame.

8. Billy Wagner (47-40, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB, 903 IP)

No, the best reliever on the ballot is not Trevor Hoffman, but Billy Wagner; I don't care how many saves Hoffman had. Though Wagner missed portions of some seasons to injury, he finished his career with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, striking out batters at ridiculous rates while keeping runners off the bases and establishing himself as the greatest closer of all time not named Mariano Rivera. His 24.1 career fWAR is the sixth highest ever for a reliever, and the five above him all threw significantly more innings. RE24 accumulates the change in run expectancy between each event (strikeout, hit, etc.), and it's very useful in measuring the situation to situation effectiveness of a reliever; Wagner's 198.17 is the second most of all time among relievers, behind only Rivera. In win-probability added, which is a pretty decent metric for measuring "clutchness," Wagner is fifth at 28.40, with three of the four ahead of him having thrown significantly more innings again (though Joe Nathan has thrown many fewer, surprisingly). On an out-for-out basis, Wagner is the best closer ever after Rivera.

9. Trevor Hoffman (61-75, 2.87 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1133/307 K/BB, 1089.1 IP)

Wagner may be better, but Hoffman is still one of the greatest relievers ever. He made over one thousand appearances over eighteen seasons, making at least 47 appearances in each of those seasons except 2003. His 26.1 fWAR is the third most ever for a reliever, behind only Mariano Rivera (39.2) and Goose Gossage (28.9). He is one of ten relievers to ever pitch over one thousand games, and of those, only Mariano Rivera (2.06) and Kent Tekulve (2.85) have a lower ERA than his 2.87. Wagner was clearly the better pitcher on and inning for inning basis, but Hoffman's longevity and consistency is what makes him one of the greatest of all time.

10. Larry Walker (383 HR, .313/.400/.565 slash, 230 SB, 140 wRC+, 68.7 fWAR)

Larry Walker is a tough call because he spent nine and a half seasons in Colorado, including his prime, in the days before the humidor. However, his numbers were so outrageous during that prime, especially from 1997-2002, that even the humidor-less Coors Field can't explain away those numbers. In 1997, his best season, he cracked 49 home runs and slashed .366/.452/.720 while stealing 33 bases, good for a 177 wRC+ and 9.1 fWAR. Using wRC+, which adjusts for ballpark and league production, we can find a recent similar season with a more neutral context: this past season, Aaron Judge put up a 173 wRC+ by slashing .284/.422/.627 with 52 home runs. His career 140 wRC+ ranks 68th all time and puts him on the same level as David Ortiz and Frank Howard. At the same time, he just breaks even in defensive value, making him one of just 20 players with positive defensive value and a 140 wRC+. Throw in his 230 stolen bases, and that list of twenty drops to eleven for players with at least 200 stolen bases. Context be damned, Walker had a fantastic career.

Steroid Users Left Off (see steroid primer)

Barry Bonds (762 HR, .298/.444/.607 slash, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR)

Roger Clemens (354-184, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB, 4916.2 IP)

Manny Ramirez (555 HR, .312/.411/.585 slash, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR)

Gary Sheffield (509 HR, .292/.393/.514 slash, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR)*

Sammy Sosa (609 HR, .273/.344/.534 slash, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR)

*Sheffield was named in the Mitchell Report but has significantly less evidence against him as the other names. However, he's a borderline candidate as it is, and the doubt from the steroid allegations is enough to push more deserving players in.

Left Off

Scott Rolen (316 HR, .281/.364/.490 slash, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 70.1 fWAR)

Rolen is very close to being a Hall of Famer, and if the ballot wasn't limited to ten names, I might add him on. For now, though, Rolen will be left off due to other players being more deserving. Rolen was a very good hitter over his career, slashing .281/.364/.490 over a seventeen year career, but where he really shined was on defense. He picked up eight Gold Gloves between 1998 and 2010, and Fangraphs backs up his defensive prowess through their metrics. The high defensive value combined with his solid offense (a career 122 wRC+ is not too shabby) gives him 70.1 fWAR, more than any other non-steroid using hitter on the ballot aside from Chipper Jones, but I'm not as confident in Fangraphs' defensive metrics and will leave him off, at least for this year, due to uncertainty.

Fred McGriff (493 HR, .284/.377/.509 slash, 72 SB, 134 wRC+, 56.9 fWAR)

McGriff was a great hitter, hitting nearly 500 home runs and going sixteen seasons from 1987-2002 without posting an on-base percentage below .350. However, he provided no value on defense, which we saw with Jim Thome and Edgar Martinez wasn't enough to outright disqualify someone, but the offense just wasn't there for the era to alleviate it. His 134 wRC+ is pretty good, but if someone is going to get into the Hall of Fame, I'd like to see a little bit better if there is no defensive value being added. There were so many great power hitters in the era, even ones that weren't linked to steroids, that not everybody can get in.

Omar Vizquel (80 HR, .272/.336/.352 slash, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.6 fWAR)

Omar Vizquel was a legendary shortstop defensively, and with a career that spanned 24 seasons from 1989-2012, Vizquel has to at least be considered for the Hall of Fame. However, I can't "vote" for him because he was utterly useless on offense. It may seem hypocritical because I included "useless" defenders Jim Thome and Edgar Martinez, but I do value offense more than defense and a career .688 OPS (and .310 wOBA) is an outright liability in a lineup where offense is at an all time high. Only twice, in 1999 and 2002, did Vizquel produce more offense than the average hitter by wRC+, and he finished at 83 for his career. For context, some recent players with similar levels of offense include Mark Kotsay (84), Ben Revere (82), Craig Counsell (82), Gordon Beckham (81), and Jose Iglesias (81). This doesn't take away from the fact that Vizquel was an amazing player, as his defense was truly remarkable, but his ineptitude at the plate is enough to keep him out of the Hall for me.

Johan Santana (139-78, 3.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 1988/567 K/BB, 2025.2 IP)

Johan Santana was great, and at his prime from 2002-2010, he was a Hall of Famer. However, shoulder problems forced him to retire after just twelve seasons, and it's tough to convince a voter that 2025.2 innings is enough to get into the Hall of Fame. In fact, only one starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame threw fewer innings than Santana: Dizzy Dean, who went 150-83 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 1967.1 innings over twelve seasons. Santana does best Dean in both fWAR (45.3 to 40.9) and ERA- (74 to 77), but at this point, there are more deserving players on the ballot and Santana will have to wait. We can look back on his prime and see that from 2002-2010, only Roy Halladay (50.4) and Roy Oswalt (44) accumulated more fWAR than Santana (43.7), while his 2.90 ERA was tops among starting pitchers. Maybe in a few years.

Jeff Kent (377 HR, .290/.356/.500 slash, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.1 fWAR)

Jeff Kent had a long career with respectable consistency, posting at least a 98 wRC+ in each of his seventeen seasons and reaching at least 120 in ten straight seasons from 1998-2007. He also played second base, occupying a key position and providing adequate defense there. He was also (a bit surprisingly) the 2000 NL MVP, slashing .334/.424/.596 with 33 home runs, good for a 159 wRC+ and 7.4 fWAR. It all adds up to a very good package, but unfortunately, I don't see it as quite enough to warrant a trip to the Hall of Fame in an era where so many players put up comparable numbers.

Others of note: Jamie Moyer (48.2 fWAR), Johnny Damon (44.5), Chris Carpenter (39.1), Carlos Zambrano (30.6), Carlos Lee (27.5)