With the BBWAA ballots announced and some time cleared up in my academic schedule, I have gotten to work on my hypothetical ballot if I were able to cast one.
Primer on my view on steroids:
My view on steroids has evolved slightly over time, though not by much. I am still against steroid users in the Hall of Fame, because as someone who treats integrity as my number one value, I can't stand liars, cheaters, and such. While I'm against using the "character clause" as it pertains to non-baseball related issues (such as Curt Schilling's dumb tweets or Ty Cobb's racism) to keep players out of the Hall of Fame, I will absolutely invoke it for on-field issues, such as cheating to get ahead of your fellow players. We all know Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would have gotten into the Hall without steroids, but the fact that they chose to use them compromised the integrity of the game, and that's not worth honoring. That said, over the past year, my views have evolved a little bit. Steroids were extremely widespread back then and allegedly even encouraged by league officials, and the truth is that we will never know exactly who juiced and why they did it. So, I filled out my ballot first with non-steroid users, and because I had two free spots, I put down Bonds and Clemens because I am certain they would be Hall of Famers without cheating.
1. RHP Mariano Rivera (1995-2013): 82-60, 2.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1173/286 K/BB, 1283.2 IP
This one is easy. Mariano Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher who ever lived, and I don't know who would even try to argue that. Among relievers, Mariano leads in fWAR (39.2), RE24 (352.62), and if you believe in "clutch," win-probability added (55.75), and none of those three are even close. Between 1996 and 2013, Mariano posted an ERA above 2.85 just once, when he had a 3.15 ERA for the 2007 Yankees at the age of 37. Not that saves matter, but he's also the all-time leader there with 652. In the postseason, where he has made 96 appearances (more than any other pitcher in history by a long shot), he has a 0.70 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP, and a 110/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 innings. The ERA is also the best of all time and the WHIP is fourth, so an argument can be made that Rivera is the greatest postseason pitcher of all time. There's really not much to argue here, just a lot to appreciate.
2. DH Edgar Martinez (1987-2004): 309 HR, .312/.418/.515, 49 SB, 147 wRC+, 65.5 fWAR
Edgar Martinez's enshrinement in the Hall of Fame is long, long overdue, and this is his tenth and final year on the ballot so it better happen. To paraphrase what I said last year, Martinez's bat was so valuable that even though he provided no defensive value whatsoever throughout his career, he is a clear Hall of Famer. Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Willie Stargell were all butchers in the outfield, and probably would have helped their teams more as a DH like Edgar, and nobody questions their Hall of Fame cases. Edgar wasn't a Ruthian or Williams-esque hitter, but the point is simply being a DH should not disqualify you from the Hall. His 147 wRC+, which adjusts for the fact that he played in an offense-heavy era, is still the 33rd best of all time, and his .418 on-base percentage sits in 21st. Yeah he only cleared 30 home runs once, but with 514 career doubles including eight seasons of at least 35 or more, going along with eight 20 homer seasons, he was one of the top hitters of the era. From 1995-2001, he never posted an on-base percentage below .423 or a slugging percentage below .543. Put Edgar Martinez in the Hall of Fame please and thank you.
3. RHP Roy Halladay (1998-2013): 203-105, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2117/592 K/BB, 2749.1 IP
Halladay isn't quite a shoe-in, but I think he's a worthwhile Hall of Famer and I don't see that as a particularly controversial statement. After a couple of big years in 2002 and 2003 and a down year in 2004, he was the best pitcher in baseball from 2005-2011, going 121-53 with a 2.82 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 1232/239 strikeout to walk ratio over that stretch. He led all pitchers (min. 500 IP) in fWAR (42.1), ERA, WHIP, complete games (51), and shutouts (14), was third in innings (1556.1) and walk rate (3.8%), and sixth in strikeouts. As good as C.C. Sabathia was, Halladay might be the last truly great workhorse that Major League Baseball ever sees, what with starting pitchers throwing fewer and fewer innings every year. Throw in his 2010 perfect game and postseason no-hitter, and Halladay is a deserving Hall of Famer.
4. RHP Mike Mussina (1991-2008): 270-153, 3.68 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2813/785 K/BB, 3562.2 IP
Look past Mussina's relatively inflated ERA and you will find a pitcher who dominated in some of the toughest non-Coors contexts in baseball history, pitching his entire career in the tough American League East around the Steroid Era, first in Baltimore's hitter-friendly Camden Yards then in New York's hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. His 82 career ERA- puts him in the company of John Smoltz (81), Juan Marichal (81), Bob Feller (82), and Ron Guidry (83), and he did it while throwing over 3500 innings. In fact, from 1992-2008, he went seventeen straight seasons without failing to throw at least 152 innings, making him as dependable as they come for nearly two decades. He was also a great postseason pitcher, going 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a strong 145/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 139.2 innings, which is not as eye-popping as Mariano Rivera's performance but certainly worthy of notice against the strongest teams of the Steroid Era. ERA is not everything.
5. RHP Curt Schilling (1988-2007): 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB, 3261 IP
Honestly, I believe the main reason that Curt Schilling is not in the Hall of Fame is that he likes to mouth off on Twitter. His numbers don't lie: a 3.46 ERA over more than 3000 innings in hitters' ballparks in the Steroid Era, three separate 300 strikeout seasons, and eight different full seasons with sub-3.30 ERA's in that tough context. From 1997-2004, he was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, going 132-71 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 1945/347 strikeout to walk ratio over 1824.1 innings in those tough, hitter-friendly contexts. Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson may have been better, but Schilling also managed big years in 1992, 1993, 1996, and 2006, all outside of that range. The longevity combined with the peak give me a Hall of Fame case for Schilling.
6. CF Andruw Jones (1996-2012): 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 66.9 fWAR
Jones may have only been a good hitter rather than a great one, but he was a legendary defender in center field and I think the bat was enough to get him over the hump. I'm not a big fan of putting light hitting, defense-first players into the Hall, but Jones wasn't a light hitter and that defense was considered legendary by those who saw him play (unfortunately, his early 2000's prime was just before my time as someone born in 1997 so I am limited to highlights and data). With the bat, Jones hit more than 25 home runs in ten straight seasons from 1998-2007, posting an on-base percentage above .310 in all of them. From 1998-2006, nine straight seasons, Jones was worth at least 4.9 fWAR in each season, three times getting to at least 7.0 fWAR. Elite defense in an all-time context to go with above average offensive production for a decade, plus marginal production on either side of that decade, adds up to a Hall of Famer in my book.
7. LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010): 47-40, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB, 903 IP
In my opinion, if Trevor Hoffman is in the Hall of Fame (which I believe he should be), there is no reason that Billy Wagner should not be in as well; Wagner was better. Aside from having a lower career ERA 2.31 to 2.87, Wagner put up more RE24 (198.2 to 179.7) than Hoffman in 185.1 fewer innings, and I believe RE24 (a cumulative statistic like fWAR, not a rate statistic like ERA) is a good indicator of a reliever's success. In fact, among all relievers ever, Wagner is second only to Mariano Rivera and his ridiculous 352.6 RE24. Wagner may not have been as consistent as Hoffman or Rivera, but he had four different full seasons with ERA's below 1.80 and and seven different full seasons (min. 40 IP) with a WHIP below 1.00. In 2010, his final year where he turned 39 mid-season, he posted a 1.43 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 104/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 69.1 innings for the Braves; that's the way for the best left handed reliever of all time to go out.
8. RF Larry Walker (1989-2005): 383 HR, .313/.400/.565, 230 SB, 140 wRC+, 68.7 fWAR
If you're going to play in Coors Field during the Steroid Era, you better put up some ridiculous numbers to get into the Hall of Fame. Well, he did. During his time there from 1995 to halfway through 2004, he slashed .334/.426/.618 with 258 home runs in 1170 games, good for a 147 wRC+. I think managing a slash line like that for an entire decade qualifies as ridiculous. Even from 1990-1994 with the Expos, before his prime and in a neutral context, he slashed .284/.359/.489 with 99 home runs and a 130 wRC+, so he clearly could hit. He could also field and run, and when you create a list of players with a 140 wRC+ (which erases Walker's Coors advantage), 200 stolen bases, and positive defensive value (according to Fangraphs), you find just eleven names: Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez, Tris Speaker, Honus Wagner, Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie, Roger Connor, John McGraw, and Walker. On that list, only Bonds, Rodriguez, and Walker are not in the Hall of Fame, and both Bonds and Rodriguez (once eligible) would be first ballot Hall of Famers if it weren't for steroids. Walker was a rare complete player and should be in the Hall.
9. LF Barry Bonds (1986-2007): 762 HR, .298/.444/.607, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR
With space available, Bonds made it onto my ballot. There's really no question about his skill; his numbers are among the most eye-popping in the history of baseball. With an all-time record 762 home runs and a ridiculous .298/.444/.607 slash line, he finished second all time with 164.4 fWAR, just four behind Babe Ruth's 168.4. No other player even has 150 fWAR (with apologies to Willie Mays and his 149.9). I could keep writing all day about his accomplishments, including the all time record for walks (2558) in addition to his home run record as well as the single season records for home runs (73), wRC+ (244), slugging percentage (.863), on-base percentage (.609), walks (232), and walk rate (37.6%).
10. RHP Roger Clemens (1984-2007): 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB, 4916.2 IP
While I believe Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez were the greatest pitchers of the era, perhaps only Maddux can match Clemens the longevity, consistency, and level of performance of Roger Clemens. Of course, it was partially steroid fueled, but for 24 seasons from the ages of 21 to 45, Clemens threw at least 98 innings in every single one while never once watching his ERA jump above 4.60 or his WHIP jump above 1.47, even at the height of the Steroid Era. He had twelve different seasons with an ERA below 3.00 and and struck out over 200 batters twelve times as well. Dropping the strikeout threshold to 185, he had sixteen such seasons. His seven Cy Young Awards, spanning 18 years between his first in 1986 and his final in 2004, are a record. Of course, nobody with Clemens it's not a question about performance, but about steroids.
Left Off
Steroid Users (see primer)
LF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011): 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR
RF Garry Sheffield (1988-2009): 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR
RF Sammy Sosa (1989-2007): 609 HR, .273/.344/.534, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR
3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012): 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR
For the second straight year, Scott Rolen was so, so close to making my ballot, but I ultimately decided not to pull the trigger. His argument is similar to that of Andruw Jones, with Rolen providing a little more offensive value and Jones providing a little more defensive value. Rolen played for seventeen years, clubbed over 300 home runs and finished with a nice .281/.364/.490 slash line, and his defense is universally regarded as excellent. He was worth 9.0 fWAR in a huge 2004 (34 HR, .314/.409/.598, typical great defense) and had three other seasons of more than six fWAR, but when you put it all together, I think a good hitter with very good defense and a career that ultimately tapered off in its second half (5.3 fWAR per year from 1997-2004 and 2.8 per year from 2005-2012) lands Rolen right on the border, and for now in the "Hall of Very Good."
LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013): 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB, 3316 IP
Andy Pettitte is the kind of guy who had a great career with lots of ups and who seemed like a Hall of Famer at the time, but looking back on the total product, it's not quite what it needs to be. He had some big years, such as 1997 (18-7, 2.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) and 2005 (17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), and he was also great in the postseason, going 19-11 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 276.2 innings. Along the way, he won six World Series and set the all time playoff records for wins, innings pitched, and games started (44). However, when you look at his career numbers, what you find in the regular season is a bunch of years with ERA's in the 4.00 range and just two full seasons (min. 150 IP) with an ERA below 3.74. As it turns out, he might be the most accomplished mid-rotation starter of all time.
1B Fred McGriff (1986-2004): 493 HR, .284/.377/.509, 72 SB, 134 wRC+, 56.9 fWAR)
With all due respect to the Crime Dog, 493 career home runs with an on-base percentage of .377 over a nineteen year career is certainly not too shabby and worthy of Hall of Fame consideration. However, for a first baseman who provided no value on defense, the beat was just a little light. His career high in home runs was 37 and in on-base percentage it was .405, and so he was never one of the best hitters in the game, even among non-steroid users. Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Thome, Edgar Martinez, and Frank Thomas had him out-shined there in the '90's. It's his final year on the ballot, and I just don't think "very good" cuts it with the bat when that's his only ticket in.
1B Todd Helton (1997-2013): 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 55.0 fWAR
The same rule applies to Helton as it applies to Larry Walker; he would need eye-popping numbers to get into the Hall of Fame due to his seventeen year tenure in Colorado, with the added pressure due to being a first baseman, albeit one with some solid defense. As it turns out, he was putting up those eye-popping numbers...briefly. From 2000-2004, Helton slashed .349/.450/.643 with 186 home runs and 34.4 fWAR; maintaining that kind of slash line over five full seasons is pretty incredible. However, after a pretty good 2005 (.320/.445/.534, 20 HR), he was just decent for the rest of his career and when you're a first baseman, that's not enough in my mind. It's easy to look at 369 home runs and a .414 on-base percentage and see Helton as a Hall of Famer, but given that he was a first baseman playing in Coors Field, I'd like a little more. Still, I want to appreciate his incredible 2000 season, where he hit 42 home runs and slashed .372/.463/.698 while walking way more (103 times) than he struck out (61 times), compiling 8.3 fWAR along the way.
1B Lance Berkman (1999-2013): 366 HR, .293/.406/.537, 86 SB, 144 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR
Berkman was a star at his peak, putting together four straight seasons with at least 6.0 fWAR from 2001-2004 then doing so again in 2006 and 2008, when he peaked at 7.7 fWAR, but he ultimately could not sustain his peak for long and was finished after fifteen seasons. The length of his career alone is not a disqualifying factor, but with a lack of defensive value, he would have needed just a bit better of a bat to overcome the lack of defense and longevity. At no point was Berkman really considered one of the top hitters in the game, so he misses.
Others of note: 2B Jeff Kent (56.1 fWAR), RHP Roy Oswalt (52.4), SS Omar Vizquel (42.4), RHP Derek Lowe (41.2), 2B Placido Polanco (38.4)
No comments:
Post a Comment