The Marlins' system is better than it was just a year ago, but it still has a long, long way to go. Even with the trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, and Kyle Barraclough, it's still fairly empty with no true impact prospects or headliners. Signing Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. were big steps in the right direction, but there is still just not much going on at all here. Even the team's top prospect heading into the season, Lewis Brinson, had a disastrous 2018 and slashed just .199/.240/.338 with eleven home runs in a season where he was supposed to challenge for the Rookie of the Year Award. The Marlins may (and should) trade J.T. Realmuto over the offseason and that will bring back a huge return, but for now, the system is just about empty. For now, the system is slightly more pitching heavy with more high-upside prospects overall than safe bets. One interesting note is that the Marlins aggressively pushed their three highest high school draft picks in 2018, Connor Scott, Osiris Johnson, and Will Banfield, all the way up to Class A Greensboro with mixed results.
Affiliates: AAA New Orleans Baby Cakes, AA Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, High A Jupiter Hammerheads, Class A Greensboro Grasshoppers*, Short Season Batavia Muckdogs, complex level GCL and DSL Marlins
*Class A Affiliate will move from Greensboro, NC to Clinton, IA in 2019
Toolsy Outfielders: Victor Victor Mesa, Monte Harrison, Connor Scott, Tristan Pompey, Thomas Jones, Brian Miller, and Austin Dean
Though the system is not deep, perhaps the Marlins' best thing the system has going for it is that there are quite a few outfielders with star potential, even if those high ceilings are coupled with high bust potential. 22 year old Cuban import Victor Victor Mesa leads the pack, having signed for a huge $5.25 million bonus in October. He has an excellent glove and will be very valuable in center field, so it will be on his bat to catch up. Currently, he is a solid contact hitter who can get on base, and while he probably won't develop much power with his 5'9" frame, he has a ceiling as a leadoff hitter if he hits enough. His floor is among the highest in the system, and since he hasn't actually had an at bat in the minor leagues yet, that's saying something about the Marlins' farm sytem. 23 year old Monte Harrison came over in the Christian Yelich trade, and his ceiling and floor are exceptionally far apart for a hitter so far into his career. After cracking 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases in A ball last year, Harrison hit 19 more and stole 28 more in 2018 while slashing .240/.316/.399 for AA Jacksonville. Power/speed combinations like Harrison's are hard to come by and extremely valuable, but Harrison comes with one big problem; he strikes out way too much, including 36.9% of the time in 2018. If he's getting fooled this badly by AA pitching, he'll only struggle more with MLB pitching, and serious approach adjustments are necessary for him to succeed at the highest level. If he makes those adjustments, then he could be a perennial 20-20 player in the majors. 19 year old Connor Scott is farther away, having just been drafted in the first round (13th overall) out of a Tampa high school in 2018. Scott slashed .218/.309/.296 with a home run and nine stolen bases in 50 games between the complex ball and an aggressive assignment to Class A Greensboro, but those numbers don't show off his skills. Despite an unorthodox swing, the long and lanky Scott shows speed and feel for the barrel, with his wiry 6'4" frame, power could come too, and when that's combined with his good outfield defense and good arm, he has the potential to be a five tool player. Risk is always high with high school draftees, but Scott's ceiling might be the highest in the system, above even Harrison. 21 year old Tristan Pompey, the younger brother of Blue Jays outfielder Dalton Pompey, was a third round pick (89th overall) out of Kentucky this year. Despite concerns about his plate discipline and swing mechanics, Pompey slashed a very impressive .299/.408/.397 with three home runs and ten stolen bases over 52 games across three levels in his pro debut, reaching as high as High A Jupiter. Especially surprising was his plate discipline, as his 47/32 strikeout to walk ratio was very reasonable. We'll have to wait and see how that plate discipline holds up over a full season, but the early returns are good for Pompey and he could be a productive major league hitter sooner than expected. 20 year old Thomas Jones was very raw when he was drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of a South Carolina high school in 2016, and so far, the Marlins have not been able to bring his potential out of him. Playing all of 2018 at Greensboro, he slashed .222/.277/.343 with nine home runs and 20 stolen bases, showing some of that blazing speed that got him drafted but struggling to do much of anything with the bat. His plate discipline currently plagues him (140/25 K/BB) and there isn't much sock in the bat, so even at 20 years old, he's running out of time to prove he can handle pro pitching. The Marlins hope 2019, his age-21 season, will be the year where he finally starts to tap into what scouts saw back in 2016. Lastly, 23 year old Brian Miller and 25 year old Austin Dean don't quite fit into the "toolsy" category, but they'll get a writeup here anyways. Both are high-floor hitters without much projection left, with Miller showing no power but good plate discipline and speed and Dean showing a productive bat. Miller slashed .295/.338/.355 with 40 stolen bases between Jupiter and AA Jacksonville this year, showing fourth outfielder potential, while Dean slashed and eye-popping .345/.410/.511 with 12 home runs and a nice 56/39 strikeout to walk ratio between Jacksonville and AAA New Orleans, showing platoon/pinch hitter potential.
The Infielders: 2B Isan Diaz, SS Jose Devers, SS Osiris Johnson, 3B Joe Dunand, 3B James Nelson, and C Will Banfield
While there is some depth when it comes to high ceiling outfield prospects, this system really lacks in potential impact infielders, and the Marlins are unlikely to get any stars out of this group. 22 year old Isan Diaz leads the pack after having been acquired from the Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade last year, and like Monte Harrison, a fellow piece in the Yelich trade, there is a large gap between what Diaz can do and what he is doing. He split 2018 between AA Jacksonville and AAA New Orleans, slashing a respectable .245/.365/.418 at the former but only .204/.281/.358 at the latter. He generates tons of power from a big, whippy swing, but he has swing and miss issues that keep his production down. However, as a patient hitter, he also draws plenty of walks, and that gives him an enviable power/patient combination. If he can cut down those strikeouts and make better contact on pitches in the zone, he could be the Marlins' next Dan Uggla, but if he can't make those adjustments, he might better resemble late-career Uggla. 18 year old Jose Devers, who came over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, was one of the youngest players in the Class A South Atlantic League this year, and his player profile is basically opposite to Diaz's. While Diaz's swing gives him all or nothing, Devers is a contact hitter with a very advanced approach for his age, enabling him to slash .272/.313/.330 against much older competition this year. He's also a very good defender at shortstop, so the only hole in his game for now is power. The skinny six footer has none of it for now, and he likely will never develop much, so he'll have to continue to line enough balls to the gaps to stay relevant. Time is on his side as he will play all of 2019 at 19 years old, and the big thing for him will just be adding strength. While Devers may be set to turn 19, 18 year old Osiris Johnson just had his birthday and played all of 2018 at just 17 years old. Johnson was drafted in the second round (53rd overall) out of an Oakland area high school this year, and while he hit well in complex ball (.301/.333/.447), he struggled to catch up to advanced Class A pitching upon his extremely aggressive promotion to Greensboro (.188/.205/.294). Johnson is very toolsy and generates power from a big swing, but that big swing also misses a lot, and with little patience, Class A pitchers were able to easily find holes in his approach this year. Set to play the whole 2019 season at 18 years old, he could spend years working on that approach and still be a young prospect, so he just has to do it. There's bust potential here, but Johnson has some of the higher upside in this section. 23 year old Joe Dunand, out of NC State, hit moderately well at High A Jupiter this year (.263/.326/.391) but saw his bat stall at Jacksonville (.212/.276/.369). With 14 total home runs on the year, he shows good power and some feel for the strike zone, but overall I don't think it adds up to a starting profile. His defense is very good at third base, and I can see him being power hitting utility infielder in the future. 21 year old James Nelson was riding high off a big 2017 at Greensboro (7 HR, .309/.354/.456) when 2018 went about as poorly as possible at Jupiter (2 HR, .211/.262/.280). He missed time to injury and overall just couldn't get anything going with the bat, so he'll hope to turn it back around in 2019 with a clean bill of health and a broad set of tools. Lastly, 18 year old catcher Will Banfield was a competitive balance pick (69th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school this year, and he's an interesting case. While he is great behind the plate with an excellent arm, his bat has held him back and some scouts worry if he'll ever be able to catch up to high level pitching. There is power in that bat, but the hit tool just isn't there yet. Learning to recognize breaking balls and catch up to velocity could make Banfield a starting catcher, but failure to do so will keep him from seeing the big leagues.
Electric Arms: Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Guzman, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Colton Hock, Tommy Eveld, and Tyler Kolek
Fortunately, the system isn't completely devoid of pitching talent like it used to be, and the Marlins do have a couple of hard throwers who could develop into more, though none have taken the step from "maybe can-be" to "potential ace" just yet. 23 year old Sandy Alcantara, who came over from the Cardinals in the Marcell Ozuna trade, is the most advanced, but he also has been extremely enigmatic. He can hit 100 with his fastball and his slider and changeup have gotten better over the years, but he just doesn't miss as many bats as you'd expect and that hurts his long term projection. In 2018, the skinny 6'4" righty went 6-3 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 96/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 innings, mostly at AAA New Orleans, but he struck out just 18% of his opponents along the way. He was moderately successful with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in a brief major league cup of coffee, but his 30/23 strikeout to walk ratio in 34 innings was far from ideal. At this point, he's probably better off in the bullpen. 22 year old Jorge Guzman came over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, and though he can hit 103 (!) with his fastball, his 2018 season was somewhat of a disappointment as he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 101/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at High A Jupiter. His slider is coming along as well, but right now the two pitches aren't enough to overcome his mediocre command. Like Alcantara, he might be better off in the bullpen, where he could have Aroldis Chapman-esque velocity and ditch his changeup. Still, it's always exciting to have someone with a fastball that sits right around 100 as a starter. 20 year old Edward Cabrera, like the two above him, has not put it together yet but is making progress. The skinny, 6'4" righty posted a 4.22 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 93/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.1 innings at Class A Greensboro this year, which again is disappointing when his fastball can hit 100 and 101. His slider works well too, but his command wobbles and like Alcantara and Guzman, there is a lot he needs to work on and he needs to start striking batters out. 20 year old Trevor Rogers' pro debut didn't go as well as hoped in 2018, as he posted a 5.82 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings for Greensboro this year. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, which is slower than the guys above, and his secondary stuff is still coming along, though he stands at a tall 6'6". The Marlins knew he would be a project when they drafted him in the first round (13th overall) out of a New Mexico high school in 2017, and a year and a half later, he's still a project. One positive from his 2018 season was the strikeout to walk ratio, as a 26% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate aren't half bad and should provide hope for a better 2019. 22 year old Colton Hock has been a bit disappointing so far in his career, with his 4.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 77/21 strikeout to walk ratio being fairly uninspiring in 91 innings against slightly younger competition at Greensboro in 2018. The 6'4" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curve, both of which he controls well, but it doesn't quite come together in an exciting starter package and he probably needs to move to the bullpen, where he pitched with Stanford. 24 year old Tommy Eveld is purely a bullpen prospect, having posted a 1.03 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 61/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.1 innings between High A and AA. He should be in the majors in 2019 and could make an impact quickly. Lastly, we have our old friend, 22 year old Tyler Kolek, who isn't really a prospect anymore except for the fact that he was the second overall pick in the 2014 draft with Aaron Nola, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, Trea Turner, and others still on the board. At the time, he threw over 100 miles per hour regularly and looked durable with a big, 6'5" frame, but injuries and poor command have ruined his pro career so far. Now, the fastball is down to the mid 90's, and without good secondaries or command, he's basically just organizational filler at this point. Too bad, really.
Polished Arms: Nick Neidert, Jordan Yamamoto, Braxton Garrett, Zac Gallen, Robert Dugger, Jeff Brigham, and Brady Puckett
Fortunately, the Marlins have enough polished arms in this section that they might be able to form a decent back of the rotation, and you could make the argument that this group of pitchers is better than the live arms discussed above. 21 year old Nick Neidert came over in the Dee Gordon trade and is the closest thing the Marlins have to a legitimate starting pitching prospect. In 26 starts at AA Jacksonville this year, the 6'1" righty went 12-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 154/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.2 innings, showing a good mix of stuff and command. His fastball and changeup generate weak contact, and while his lack of a good breaking ball limits his ceiling, he could be a #3 or #4 starter in Miami soon. 22 year old Jordan Yamamoto, who came over in the Christian Yelich trade, has flown under the radar a bit and I don't think he gets enough credit. In 13 starts between High A Jupiter, AA Jacksonville, and complex level rehab work, he went 6-1 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and an 85/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 68.2 innings, showing good command of a deceptive fastball and a very good curveball. While he needs to prove he can stay healthy, hitters have not been able to figure him out, and he posted a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 innings with Jacksonville against his most advanced opponents. He looks like a back-end starter for now but don't underestimate him. 21 year old Braxton Garrett missed most of 2017 and all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery after being drafted seventh overall in 2016, but once he's healthy, he has the highest ceiling in this group. Pre-surgery, he threw a low 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a good changeup, all of which he could control, which would seemingly give him a great combination of ceiling of floor if he were healthy. However, he comes with a lot of risk considering we just don't know what his stuff will look like so long after surgery, and because he turned 21 in August, he's not young as far as "guys who have made four starts since high school" go. 23 year old Zac Gallen, 23 year old Robert Dugger, and 26 year old Jeff Brigham are three guys who could contribute to the back of the rotation soon. Gallen is probably the best of the three, having posted a 3.65 ERA and a 136/48 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA New Orleans this year, though he does have problems with his average stuff getting hit too hard too often. Dugger, meanwhile, had a 3.40 ERA and a 141/43 strikeout to walk ratio between Jupiter and Jacksonville, and while he's behind Gallen on the depth chart, he has a similar career outlook. Brigham is older but posted a 2.36 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings between Jacksonville, New Orleans, and complex ball rehab work, and while he throws mid 90's, his secondary stuff does need some work, and at 26, he's probably not getting much better. He may have to transition to the bullpen. Lastly, 23 year old Brady Puckett is another under the radar arm, one who posted a 2.56 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 98/18 strikeout to walk ratio between Greensboro, Jupiter, and complex ball rehab work. He gets by much more on command than stuff, and while he's behind the above trio on the depth chart, he could sneak up to the majors as a back-end starter.
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