Showing posts with label Colorado Rockies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Colorado Rockies. Show all posts

Thursday, November 27, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

The Rockies played their bonus pool fairly straight up this year, handing fourth overall pick Ethan Holliday the largest bonus of any player in the 2025 draft then rarely deviating by more than $100,000 or so away from the slot value of any given pick. In an era where players transfer schools at will and a mid-major school in the Midwest might have a roster full of players from California, Florida, New England, and everywhere in between, it seems many of Colorado's picks were players who not only stayed local for school, but stuck around for their whole career without transferring. That's a rarity these days, and it keeps with Colorado's old school philosophy of targeting high makeup players to create a strong clubhouse. Many of the players in this class have been described as just that by scouts – high makeup, team-first guys. Of course, that hasn't translated to *any* on-field success whatsoever, but as the saying goes, nice guys finish last in the NL West. This year's crop is a college-heavy class that features just one player under 21 years old, that being our class-headlining first rounder, instead banking more on safety to fill out a big league roster that badly needs help quickly.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-4: SS Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]
Slot value: $8.77 million. Signing bonus: $9 million ($229,100 above slot value).
My rank: #4. MLB Pipeline: #1. Baseball America: #1.
It was one of the worst-kept secrets in baseball that the Rockies were enamored with Ethan Holliday, and as it turned out they got their guy. All it took was the largest signing bonus of any player taken in the 2025 draft, the largest signing bonus ever given to a high school player (beating his brother's record of $8.19 million in 2022), and tied for the fourth highest of all time. The son of seven time All Star Matt Holliday, Ethan's older brother Jackson was the first overall pick after a massive spring at Stillwater High School in 2022 and now plays for the Orioles. While Jackson entered his senior season more of a second round prospect, Ethan has been arguably the most famous name in the 2025 prep class since all the way back to his freshman season, when he was teammates with his brother. He has maintained that status as the odds-on favorite to go first overall throughout his time at Stillwater High School (also the alma mater of Rockies 2017 second rounder Ryan Vilade). With a huge target on his back, Holliday had an uneven summer on the showcase circuit in 2024 that dented his draft stock just slightly, causing him to fall out of the top five prospects on some boards in the fall and over the winter. However, he came back with a vengeance in the spring to torment Oklahoma high school pitching, batting .611 with 19 home runs as he looked like a man among boys on the field. Much more physical than his brother was at this stage, Holliday has at least plus raw power that he has tapped and tapped again in games for years, stemming from a quick, forceful left handed swing geared for lofting the ball with authority. Standing 6'4", he's already very strong and still has plenty of room to get stronger, giving him a shot to put up 40-homer seasons in Coors Field. There are more questions about the hit tool, as (admittedly elite) showcase pitchers found holes in his swing last summer and caused him to get out of his approach. He is a relatively disciplined hitter that has seen and handled plenty of top flight pitching, so the primary concern lies with his ability to handle quality stuff in the zone. It's not a major concern, or else he would not have been drafted nearly this high, but the microscope is powerful in the top five picks. Family connections to successful ballplayers have proven to be real advantages in recent years and Holliday of course has no shortage of that, so any in-zone swing and miss issues he's currently facing are likely to be taken care of in short order, even if there is a bit of a learning curve in pro ball. Defensively, he shows good actions at shortstop with natural instincts to make all the plays that come to him, though his size will likely push him to third base in time. He's not explosive on the defensive side and does show a strong arm, but with average speed at this point, he does have an outside shot to work hard and stick at that most important position. At peak, Holliday could hit 40 home runs with average on-base percentages in that Coors environment, a lineup cornerstone for the Rockies.

2-45: RHP JB Middleton, Southern Miss
Slot value: $2.17 million. Signing bonus: $2.07 million ($100,000 below slot value).
My rank: #40. MLB Pipeline: #41. Baseball America: #58.
While Coors Field is the toughest place to be a pitcher, making free agent deals a tough sell and the draft ever more important, the Rockies have actually done a pretty solid job of developing young pitching lately. First up is JB Middleton, a breakout star from down south. Middleton barely pitched as a freshman at Southern Miss and served as a reliever as a sophomore, but took a massive step forward in 2025 as he went 10-1 with a 2.31 ERA and a sharp 122/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings, garnering first team All-American honors from some outlets including Perfect Game and NCBWA. His fastball has now crept up to a comfortable low to mid 90's, reaching 97 at peak with running action. His best pitch is a hard, tight slider in the upper 80's that can function like more of a cutter at times, getting tons of swings and misses and providing the key to his success in 2025. There is also a firm changeup with some fade, looking like an average pitch for now with a chance for better as he gains more feel. The 6' righty is not the biggest guy on the field with a slender frame that currently carries 180 pounds and doesn't appear to have tons of room for more, but he regularly pitched into the late innings in Hattiesburg including going at least seven innings in nine of his sixteen starts and four outings of eight innings or more. At season's end, his 105.1 innings were tied for the fourth most in Division I, so whatever questions there are about Middleton's durability, he has done everything he can to answer them. At this point, his control is ahead of his command, as his impressive 6% walk rate showcased a pitcher not afraid to attack the zone. The Mississippi native has a chance for three above average or better pitches that he pours into the strike zone, with the next step being to fine tune that command inside the strike zone and perhaps bring the changeup a little further along. Otherwise, if he continues to chew up innings and hold his stuff late into the game, he could be a #3 starter at the big league level.

CBB-74: OF Max Belyeu, Texas
Slot value: $1.11 million. Signing bonus: $1.11 million.
My rank: #85. MLB Pipeline: #34. Baseball America: #33.
I felt throughout the draft process that Max Belyeu was a bit overvalued, and based on where he was ranked by major publications versus his draft position and signing bonus, it appears MLB organizations felt the same way. That said, it's a nice get here in the CBB round. Back in high school, Belyeu rode a big senior season to significant top five rounds interest, but held firm on his commitment to Texas and blossomed into one of the Longhorns' best bats, hitting .318/.414/.616 with 27 home runs in 106 games over his three year career. While his 2024 sophomore season was his biggest and netted him Big 12 Player of the Year honors, 2025 was a bit more challenging as he missed significant time during conference play with a thumb injury. Belyeu brings a strong presence to the box, combining a projectable 6'2" frame with plenty of present strength to give him above average power for now and a chance for plus down the line. He takes big hacks from the left side to tap that power, and so far he has against strong college competition. I think the hit tool is where major publications and the league diverged in opinion. Belyeu tends to get very streaky at the plate and he struck out in a third of his plate appearances in the Cape Cod League last summer. This spring, pitchers gave him much less to hit and he chased more as a result of that, this time striking out in a quarter of his at bats. When he's going right, he looks like a future lineup anchor. He turned a ton of heads at the Shriners Children's College Showdown on opening weekend, going 8-14 with two home runs and two doubles against Louisville, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma State and actually began the season on an eleven game hitting streak in which he hit .468. Then there are the cold stretches, like later in the year when he went 3-27 with 14 strikeouts in his first six games back from injury. The North Texas native will likely always be streaky has some risk of falling into a platoon role where he can see mostly right handed pitching. Given the power and the long track record of getting hot and finding his stroke even against top competition, the Rockies likely see more than that, a hitter that can club 20+ home runs per season and maintain reasonable on-base percentages. The speed is average and the glovework is fringy, and with his body type he may slow down as he continues to tack on strength. That makes a corner outfield spot the most likely destination, though his plus arm could make him a decent right fielder.

3-77: 3B Ethan Hedges, Southern California
Slot value: $1.06 million. Signing bonus: $950,000 ($110,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #159. Baseball America: #125.
I don't think anyone expected Max Belyeu, who had projections as high as the first comp rounds, and Ethan Hedges, who figured to go closer to the middle of day two, to come off the board just a couple picks apart. The Rockies are big believers in the sum of the parts here, with Hedges coming off a huge, breakout junior season at USC where he hit .346/.462/.619 with 14 home runs and was named to the All-Big Ten First Team. There is not one standout tool here, but he does a little bit of everything. He gets on plane early and gets his eyes behind the baseball, driving out and through the baseball to make consistent hard contact. The power has improved to fringe average after he hit just four home runs over his first two seasons, and at Coors Field he could wind up with 15-20 home runs per season at best if he can continue to turn on the ball consistently. It's also an average overall hit tool in that he makes good consistent hard contact, uses the whole field, and draws his walks, but can be prone to chasing and whiffing at times. He's great on the other side of the ball, with slick glovework that handles hot shots at third base reliably. Hedges served as USC's closer in 2025 and saved nine games with a 2.40 ERA while running his fastball up to 96, and while he'll be a hitter-only in pro ball, that arm strength comes in clutch at third base where the arm grades out as plus. If he can hit enough to stay on the field, he could contend for Gold Gloves at third base. That will be the key, and the Rockies love positive trajectory elevating a solid all-around game.

4-107: RHP Riley Kelly, UC Irvine
Slot value: $715,400. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($15,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #139. Baseball America: #139.
Sticking in Southern California, the Rockies bring in their second arm of the class and a very large human in Riley Kelly. The starting quarterback at Tustin High School, he wowed scouts with a huge senior season in 2022 and pushed himself into top five rounds consideration, but ultimately honored his commitment to UC Irvine as one of their biggest recruits ever to reach campus. He didn't get on the mound as much as he would have liked over his first two seasons as he battled command issues and a back injury, but took a big step forward in 2025 as he pitched his way into the Anteaters' rotation and ran with it, at one point allowing just two runs in a five start stretch (25.1 innings, 0.71 ERA). His fastball has crept up and now sits in the low 90's, touching 96 at peak with moderate life. His best pitch is a big, hammer curveball with huge spin rates and deep finish that has missed bats in bunches dating back to his prep days, while his changeup has been a positive development in Irvine and now projects as average if a bit firm. Kelly has upped the tempo in his delivery in college but still shows very streaky command, often appearing average on one day and well below average the next. It has made moderate progress lately and if it continues to trend in that direction, he could fit in the back of a big league rotation. He's just now finishing up filling out his big 6'5" frame, now pushing 240 pounds, and the Rockies will use that size to unlock a little more power in his arsenal. If the back problems are behind him, he otherwise looks durable enough to hold down a starting role, but that is something to monitor. There is nice upside here for a guy who seems to be unlocking the best version of himself.

5-138: OF Cam Nelson, Wake Forest
Slot value: $529,100. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($70,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This one is a bit out of left field. While he comes from a power program, Cam Nelson has not seen much time on the field and did not appear on any major public draft boards, but the Rockies are massive believers in the raw talent and have him a slight over slot bonus here in the fifth round. Nelson came off the bench as a freshman in 2024, often as a defensive replacement, but slugged a paltry .202 with just thirteen singles and four doubles in more than one hundred at bats. He served in a similar role in 2025 but the bat took a step forward offensively, hitting .318/.489/.485 in limited playing time. Undersized at 5'11", Nelson immediately stands out for an excellent approach at the plate, running an absurd 22% walk rate that becomes all the more impressive when you consider he was a light hitting bench bat whom opposing pitchers likely weren't terribly concerned about pitching around. He employs a slasher approach at the plate, gashing line drives around the field consistently because he forces pitchers to give him something to hit and will foul balls off until he gets one he likes, but the Rockies see more power in the tank as he gets more consistent reps and learns to elevate the ball. The Baltimore native is also a good runner who plays a solid center field, while his days as a pitcher give him a plus arm to boot. Colorado sees an undervalued development project here in the left handed hitting outfielder that could blossom into a high on-base leadoff type with strong defense down the line. A more median projection would have him as a glove-first, hit-over-power fourth outfielder who could play all three positions well.

6-167: C Matt Klein, Louisville
Slot value: $400,400. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($24,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #235.
Louisville catchers have an excellent track record lately, from Will Smith to Henry Davis to Dalton Rushing, and Matt Klein hopes to be the next. Klein, like other players in this class such as Ethan Hedges, lacks a standout tool, but by virtue of being a catcher, any surprise production would be a big bonus. Injuries have limited him a bit at Louisville and he only played 33 games in 2025 after getting hit by a pitch, but he produced when he was in the lineup and his under the hood numbers were even better. Klein uses a simple left handed swing to focus on line drives, which combined with a professional plate approach helps him keep the strikeouts way down (just 11.0% in 2025) while drawing his walks (13.1%) and getting on base (.431 OBP). That approach played against elite pitching in the Cape Cod League last summer as well, where he hit .375/.397/.417 with just an 11.4% strikeout rate in 25 games. While few doubt that he can hit pro pitching, turning that contact into impact will be the next step in his development. Klein isn't one to turn on the ball and try to hit it over the fence, causing his average raw power to play down in games. Unless Colorado can get him lifting the ball more consistently, which may come at the expense of his hit tool, he likely will always project for below average home run totals and may top out around 10-15 a year. However, given his approach and bat to ball, he may be able to trade some of that for some increased launch angle and be just alright, which would go a long way as a catcher. While the Louisville native isn't quite a Gold Glover back there, he gets the job done with average all-around glovework and arm strength and works well with pitchers. He projects as a backup catcher with a chance for more if he can unlock some of that power.

7-197: LHP Antoine Jean, Houston
Slot value: $311,900. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($111,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #196. Baseball America: #458.
Antoine Jean is a really interesting pick that may take a pretty unique path to the big leagues. A native of Montreal, he began his career at Alabama way back in 2020, where injuries limited him at times but he had success in the rotation when he was on the mound. After missing the 2023 season with Tommy John surgery, he transferred to Houston to pitch his fifth year on campus in 2024 and set career highs in starts and innings, albeit with a career-worst 5.97 ERA. When he returned to Houston for a sixth year of college baseball in 2025 for his age-23 season, something clicked. The power ticked up across his arsenal and he blossomed into one of the best relievers in college baseball, taking home Big 12 Pitcher of the Year honors as he led all college relievers with 110 strikeouts. The fastball now sits low 90's and touches 96, not overwhelming velocity from a reliever but enough to play up with run and ride. He throws a pair of fall-off-the-table breaking balls in his curveball and slider, both of which dive late away from hitters, while his changeup is a fourth pitch but still one that will be usable in pro ball. His command is average, but he mixes and matches his offerings very effectively as a former soft tossing crafty lefty that now has average power across his arsenal. He can manipulate the shapes of his fastball and breaking balls, giving him a much, much deeper arsenal than the typical reliever. The 6'2" lefty is a bit slight of stature and may not get much bigger, but he has a history of starting and completed four or more innings on ten occasions in 2025, all in relief, and his arsenal is more than deep enough to start. Colorado will likely send Jean back into the rotation to start his career, where he could work his way up as a back-end starter. He turned 24 in August, making him one of the oldest players in this year's draft and already older than a quarter of the Rockies' 40 man roster (including Chase Dollander, Adael Amador, and Angel Chivilli while sharing an exact birth date with Ezequiel Tovar). That doesn't give him much time if he wants ascend the levels as a starter, though as a reliever he could be ready as soon as 2026.

8-227: 1B Tanner Thach, UNC Wilmington
Slot value: $247,200. Signing bonus: $325,000 ($77,800 above slot value).
My rank: #156. MLB Pipeline: #151. Baseball America: #134.
Tanner Thach brings Colorado some of the best power in its 2025 class here in the eighth round, which is always fun to see at Coors Field. Thach reached UNC Wilmington's campus as a two-way player but quickly established himself as a primary hitter, setting the Seahawks' freshman record by hitting fifteen home runs in 2023. He exploded for 27 in 2024, this time breaking the school's single season record in general and good for #11 in the nation that year. While he couldn't quite match the power output in 2025, he still finished as the school's all time home run leader with 54 over three seasons. Listed at 6'4", 225 pounds, he shows plus raw power that he taps every bit of in games with a natural tendency to elevate the ball to the pull side, having done so consistently way back to his prep days at Perquimans County High School in eastern North Carolina. He also shows above average bat to ball ability that helped him cut his strikeout rate under 15% in 2025, and as a career .271/.359/.495 hitter over 55 games and two seasons in the Cape Cod League, he has proven he can handle high level pitching. At this point, the one drawback in the offensive profile is his proclivity to chase, as he has feasted on CAA pitching by consistently expanding the zone and letting his natural bat to ball do the work. At the next level, pro pitchers are likely to take advantage of that aggressive approach and feed him a steady diet of offspeed stuff, and if he doesn't adjust there is risk that he becomes a platoon bat that sits against left handed pitchers. Thach is also a well below average runner that will be limited to first base only, which puts a lot of pressure on the bat. Colorado is buying his track record not only in the CAA but on the Cape, which to them indicates that he will be just fine against pro pitching and could bring a Michael Toglia-like profile to Coors Field.

19-557: RHP Easton Marks, Florida International
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The only Rocky Mountain product in this Rockies class is Easton Marks. A Denver native, he attended Arapahoe High School in nearby Centennial just to the south and began his career at Nevada, where he worked his way into the rotation as a sophomore but struggled in the hitter-friendly environment. Transferring nearly 2500 miles across the country to FIU, he found far greater success with the Panthers and became the school's first pitcher since 2019 to be named first team all C-USA. While he initially committed to transfer a second time to Miami in 2026, he'll head back home instead to begin his pro career. He has always thrown hard, now sitting in the low to mid 90's and grabbing 97 at peak. He can turn that over into a tight cutter with late movement, while he has tightened up his curveball with late bite down in the zone. Marks also throws a changeup with late fade to the arm side, giving him a really nice arsenal for the nineteenth round. The 6'1" righty struggled with command back at Nevada but dropped his walk rate from an ugly 17.6% as a sophomore in Reno to a more reasonable 11.7% as a junior in Miami. It's still below average command, but much more playable and the results speak for themselves. If he can continue to tighten that up, his four pitch mix can play in a big league rotation and the Rockies will have great value from the late rounds. He will probably need to jump another full grade in that regard, so a bullpen career is certainly a possibility.

Sunday, October 6, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

The Rockies usually have fun drafts, and this one was no different. While they played the bonus pool fairly straightforward, it was a class full of dynamic profiles brining a diverse array of tools to the table. They used their first two picks on arguably the top overall prospect and one of the nastiest pitchers in the class, focusing on hitters early (four of their first five picks) and pitchers later (twelve of their last sixteen picks). They were also the only team not to draft any high school players, prioritizing the near term (though the Yankees and Cardinals did not sign the one high schooler they each drafted).
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-3: OF Charlie Condon, Georgia {video}
Slot value: $9.07 million. Signing bonus: $9.25 million ($179,200 above slot value).
My rank: #2. MLB Pipeline: #2. Baseball America: #1.
Charlie Condon's ascent is nothing short of remarkable. A talented high school player, he did not receive a scholarship at Georgia and instead walked on with the Bulldogs. He didn't play at all as a freshman in 2022, but put the work in and exploded for a massive redshirt freshman season in 2023 in which he slashed .386/.484/.800 with 25 home runs in 56 games and was named National Freshman of the Year. Somehow, 2024 was even better as he put up an unbelievable season, slashing .433/.556/1.009 with 37 home runs in 60 games, winning the Golden Spikes Award and leading Division I in three of those four marks sans on-base percentage (third in D-I). Condon is an imposing presence in the box to say the least, clocking in at a lean and strong 6'6", and as you'd expect, he produces plus-plus raw power. It's a simple right handed swing and it's all natural – natural strength, natural leverage, natural loft. That helps him tap his prodigious power more consistently than anybody else, never selling out and mitigating the swing and miss problems that often occur with these towering power hitters. Condon has a professional approach at the plate and makes plenty of contact, going with the pitches he gets and keeping his strikeouts way down. It's a power-contact combination rarely seen in amateur baseball, giving him a chance for 35-40 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Now imagine that at Coors Field, and that's a scary thought. He's earned comps to Kris Bryant, which are apt, while Giancarlo Stanton could be another if he fills out a little more (though the swing is a little different). The Atlanta native has played all over the field, and while he doesn't necessarily shine at any one position in particular, he surprised evaluators with his athleticism this season and he could be solid average in right field. From Charlie Blackmon to Nolan Arenado to Troy Tulowitzki, the Rockies have a long line of great hitters to come through their system, and Condon has a chance to be as good as any of them as the heir to the retiring Blackmon. It wasn't such smooth sailing upon an aggressive assignment to High A Spokane to begin his pro career, slashing .180/.248/.270 with one home run and a 34/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games, but he'll get it figured out.

CBA-38: RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa {video}
Slot value: $2.45 million. Signing bonus: $2.7 million ($247,800 above slot value).
My rank: #20. MLB Pipeline: #21. Baseball America: #28.
Brody Brecht is a really, really interesting arm with clear strengths and clear weaknesses. A three sport superstar athlete in high school who played football and ran track in addition to pitching, he earned top three rounds interest at the time but was dead set on attending Iowa. Brecht actually played wide receiver for the Hawkeyes football program and caught nine receptions for 87 yards as a sophomore, but he gave up the gridiron to focus on the diamond shortly after that. Meanwhile, his stuff got nastier and nastier on the mound and by 2024 he had one of the best two pitch punches in college baseball. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has reached 101 in the past, though the shape is average and leans towards the cutter side. His best pitch, and indeed one of the best pitches in all of college baseball, is a plus-plus slider that reaches 92 with hard, late, two-plane bite to miss bats at a ridiculous rate. When he executes its location, it's downright untouchable, and he leans heavily on it. Brecht has scrapped his curveball to focus on the slider, and he also occasionally adds a solid splitter that performed well when he pulled it out in 2024. Right now, the Des Moines-area native has below average command, though he has improved his walk rate all three years in Iowa City from 22.3% to 18.4% to 14.2%. That's still way too high, and Brecht often either leaves balls over the middle of the plate or misses his spot entirely with non-competitive pitches. It's a pretty free and easy delivery but he just doesn't repeat the release point as well as he could, and having explosive stuff like he does certainly doesn't help in that regard. The stuff is great enough that that shouldn't matter too much, but he has to at least get ahead in counts and keep the ball near the zone. I'm personally bullish in this regard, as he got stronger as the season went along and was at his best in late season starts against Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Michigan. The 6'4" righty has filled out nicely at Iowa and now looks the part of a durable starting pitcher with tremendous athleticism, with command really being the only thing holding him back from starting. If he can get the walk rate down to around 10-12%, he could be an impact starter in Colorado, as I expect the splitter to come along naturally as he throws it more. If the command doesn't improve, the fastball/slider combination might be untouchable out of the bullpen and he could be Colorado's next closer.  

2-42: OF Jared Thomas, Texas {video}
Slot value: $2.22 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($224,700 below slot value).
My rank: #45. MLB Pipeline: #60. Baseball America: #58.
Jared Thomas is a fun one whose profile has shifted around a bit, but however the projections stack up, the man can flat out play ball. A starter from the day he stepped on campus at Texas, he hit his way into the leadoff spot as a freshman by spraying the ball around the field and refusing to strike out. Coming into 2024, he shifted his approach a bit and started turning on the ball, which helped him jump from four to sixteen home runs, bump his slugging percentage from .484 to .635, and also bump his strikeout rate from 15.2% to 20.6%. Thomas has very strong bat to ball ability with a loose left handed swing and really adjustable hands that help him get to balls all over the zone. The new approach in 2024 meant he was more aggressive outside the zone didn't get to every ball that he got to in 2023, but with the offensive numbers up across the board, it was worth the tradeoff. A draft-eligible sophomore who only turned 21 shortly before the draft, he has projection remaining on his 6'2", 190 pound frame that could lead to more power down the line. The power is average for now, but he makes so much contact that it plays up and it will especially do so in Coors Field, where he may not need to sell out as much to reach it in the bigs. If he can get a little more patient at the plate, he has a chance to be a great all-around hitter. The Texas native is a well above average defender at first base with much more agility than you typically see there, and in 2024 he showed well in center field which will give him more avenues to big league playing time. At Coors, he projects as a 10-20 home run hitter with good batting averages/on-base percentages and the ability to play anywhere lefties can play, with a utility fallback if any part of his offensive game fails to play up. So far in eight games, it is playing up and he hit .333/.389/.545 with two home runs and a 7/3 strikeout to walk ratio for Low A Fresno.

3-77: C Cole Messina, South Carolina {video}
Slot value: $1.01 million. Signing bonus: $1.01 million.
My rank: #83. MLB Pipeline: #100. Baseball America: #72.
Cole Messina became a fan favorite in Columbia, and if he keeps hitting in pro ball, he could quickly become a fan favorite in Denver. Though he didn't play much as a freshman, he broke out for a big sophomore season in 2023 then blasted off for an even bigger junior season in 2024 as one of the best hitting catchers in the country. "Moose" is a burly guy at a listed 6', 230 pounds, and he uses that strength to produce plus raw power that he tapped for 38 home runs in 121 games over the past two seasons. It's a high handset in which he starts with the bat laying down his back, which he then pulls back into a hitting position before walloping the ball with a big right handed hack. Messina does not get cheated, with a modern approach oriented towards pulling the ball in the air with authority. He has a strong approach at the plate, though with all the movement in his swing, there are swing and miss concerns as he struck out 23.4% of the time in 2024. While that didn't impede him from hitting .330/.453/.616 in conference against elite SEC pitching, he's going to have to get more comfortable against quality stuff in the zone as pitchers get better and better at finding the holes in his swing. Messina will also need to watch his conditioning and maintain the quickness in his hands as he ages, or he'll need to simplify his setup. Behind the plate, he has a decent glove and gets the job done albeit without flashy tools. The Charleston-area native is a non-athlete and well below average runner who would be limited to first base or DH if he ever moved out from behind the plate, but most believe he can stick. If anything, Messina is universally praised for his makeup as an elite competitor and a tremendously hard worker who will do everything he can to get better, help his teammates get better, and help his team win. That's great anywhere but especially from a catcher. Aggressively assigned to High A Spokane, he didn't do much in his pro debut slashing .140/.232/.220 with one home run and an 11/5 strikeout to walk ratio over seventeen games.

4-106: SS Blake Wright, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $689,600. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($439,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #395.
Blake Wright was one of the top seniors available this year and the Rockies pulled him off the board a bit earlier than expected, getting a nice discount in the process as he signed for seventh round money. A big sophomore season put him on the map in 2022 and he came into 2023 a solid draft prospect, but had a down season and returned to Clemson. Back to his old self in 2024, he doubled his previous career high in home runs with 22, all while hitting .340 and helping Clemson host its first Super Regional since 2010. This is a very metrically appealing bat. It's average power from an average frame, using a strong right handed swing to muscle balls out to all fields and giving him a good shot at double digit home run totals in the majors, especially in Coors. Not just that, he makes a ton of contact both inside and outside the zone, with strong pitch recognition and the ability to get his hands where they need to go. Wright is an aggressive hitter who walked in just 5.6% of his plate appearances in 2024, instead preferring to hit the first pitch he likes and generally doing a good job of it. Colorado will look to rein in that approach in pro ball where it will get exploited more, and if they can do that successfully, his combination of above average bat to ball and average power could really play. A third baseman at Clemson who held down the position for the last two seasons (and blocking superstar Billy Amick [now a Twin] in the process, indirectly causing him to transfer to Tennessee for the third base opportunity), Wright has average defensive tools that will make him serviceable at first base, second base, and third base in pro ball. That helps him project well as a utility infielder/platoon bat for the Rockies, with the potential for more if he can cut down the chases.

5-139: RHP Lebarron Johnson Jr., Texas {video}
Slot value: $500,000. Signing bonus: $500,000.
My rank: #171. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #189.
Lebarron Johnson, like Blake Wright, is a senior sign who drew draft interest last year (well, technically a redshirt junior who sat out his freshman season). Ranking #106 on my draft board last year, he was the second best unsigned draft prospect returning to school and took a slight step back in 2024, but still showed well enough to bring in a half million dollar signing bonus. Johnson sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 98, then adds a pair of hard secondaries. He has a power slider that approaches 90 in its own right, while his splitter is another power pitch. Everything comes with the added aspect of an ultra high release height, as he extends well above his 6'4" frame to release the ball nearly seven feet off the ground. It's no easy at bat watching the ball come straight down on you, and it's even harder when the pitcher is pushing 90 with his slider. At this point, he commands his fastball better than his offspeed stuff and his walk rate increased from 10.5% in 2023 to 12.8% in 2024, something he'll have to clean up if he wants to remain a starter in pro ball. He was fairly streaky in that regard this year as well, throwing some gems against Cal Poly, Washington, TCU, and Kansas but giving up four or more runs in seven of his seventeen appearances. When he's at his best, the Jacksonville native looks like a top one hundred talent, and he'll hope to find more of that in pro ball. If anything, Johnson could use something softer in his arsenal so hitters have a harder time gearing up for the mid 90's.

6-168: LHP Konner Eaton, George Mason {video}
Slot value: $378,900. Signing bonus: $378,900.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #180. Baseball America: #344.
One of the most electric arms to come out of George Mason University in Northern Virginia, and he brings really sneaky upside if Colorado can get his development right. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96-97 with nice riding life from a three quarters slot, and he leans heavily on it to chew up bats. His slider has a chance to become a plus pitch in time, though he lacks consistent feel for it and it either backs up on him or he spikes it regularly. He shows a pretty solid changeup, too, but like his slider he doesn't have consistent feel for it. You have to imagine that Colorado will up his usage of his offspeed stuff as one of the first things they work on, which could really elevate his profile if he can land them. Command has been an issue for Eaton, who can yank his release point and struggles to hit spots, especially with his offspeed stuff, and for that reason he brings plenty of release risk. The upside is really tantalizing though as a lefty up to 97 with what could be a dastardly slider in time. He was nails in nine relief appearances in the minors, too, allowing just one run over eleven innings while striking out sixteen and walking three, mostly at Low A Fresno with one appearance at High A Spokane.

12-348: LHP Everett Catlett, Georgetown {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #268.
Everett Catlett didn't do much over his first three seasons at Georgetown with a 6.90 ERA and a 36/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 44.1 innings against mediocre competition, including missing the 2022 season with shoulder issues. However, he raised his profile by dominating in the New England Collegiate Baseball League over the following summer and jumped from Mystic, CT to Orleans, MA to pitch in the Cape Cod League last August, then carried that success over to a strong 2024 in DC. Catlett is a towering 6'7" lefty with a funky low three quarters delivery, creating a unique look for hitters. The fastball sits in the low 90's but has been up to 96 in short stints, showing a ton of running life to stay off barrels. He has an average slider with nice tilt to miss bats, while his hard upper 80's changeup gets nice fading action when he grips it right. It's a nice three pitch mix aided by a deceptive delivery and solid command, giving him a chance to be a back-end starter if all goes right. Having turned 22 shortly after the draft, Catlett probably projects better as a long reliever whose stuff could tick up in short stints and give hitters fits as a very different look from whoever he follows out of the bullpen.

20-588: RHP Hunter Omlid, Arizona State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $50,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Hunter Omlid comes to Colorado via a circuitous route around the interior West. He grew up in the small town of Hamilton, Montana, about forty miles south of Missoula in the southwestern corner of the state. He stayed relatively close to home to begin his college career, suiting up for Boise State back in 2020 to strong results. Moving south to Central Arizona JC in 2021, he was one of the better JuCo pitchers in the region that year and moved on to Grand Canyon for 2022 and 2023, but only to middling results. Moving on to his fifth school in four years, and his third in the state of Arizona, he was a key cog in the Arizona State bullpen with a sharp 54/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 37.2 innings. Omlid has a low to mid 90's fastball that plays up due to big riding action and some run as well. He throws a big sweeping slider that can confound hitters, and when it's all working, he can be downright dominant as evidenced by an eleven strikeout gem against Utah Valley in March. Omlid's stuff does play better in short stints, and given his advanced age (he turned 24 in May), he'll almost certainly be a reliever for the Rockies. With decent command, he has a chance to move quickly towards Colorado.

Friday, September 8, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

The Rockies went pitching heavy this year, grabbing arms with six of their first eight picks and 14/21 overall. They started it off with Chase Dollander, who entered the season the consensus top pitching prospect in the country, and continued on through a group with widely varying profiles. Cole Carrigg is perhaps the most interesting as a freak athlete/super utility man with an extreme profile, and as you get into the middle rounds the arm strength starts to pick up with the pitchers with a few guys pushing for triple digits.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-9: RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $5.72 million. Signing bonus: $5.72 million.
My rank: #14. MLB Pipeline: #9. Baseball America: #6. Prospects Live: #14.
If you told the Rockies they would have a chance to draft Chase Dollander this year before the season began, they wouldn't have believed you. Originally a Georgia Southern Eagle, he transferred to Tennessee for his sophomore season and put together a magnificent 2022 with a 2.39 ERA and a 108/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings. At that point, he established himself as the consensus best pitcher in the draft, ahead of even Paul Skenes on virtually all boards. However, his 2023 was frustrating on many levels, and he finished with a 4.75 ERA and a 120/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 innings, though it's important to note that he played in a hitter-friendly home park and offense was up across college baseball. Still, Chase Dollander is such a good pitcher that even after a tough season, he remains an elite prospect. The fastball sits in the mid 90's, touching 99 with flat plane and carry. The life on the pitch was a bit more explosive in 2022, though it's still clean fuego as is. The fastball has always been the main attraction, but he also throws two distinct breaking balls led by a plus sweeping slider and a more traditional vertical curveball. The Augusta-area native rounds out his arsenal with an above average changeup, giving him four potentially above average or better pitches. In 2022, he showed plus command to all four quadrants of the zone, though that slipped to "merely" above average in 2023 as he got hit over the plate a little more. Dollander is a great athlete with a projectable 6'2" frame, getting deep down the mound, repeating his delivery extremely well, and maintaining his stuff deep into starts. So let's take a step back. Even on his worst days, it's a great profile: a flat mid 90's fastball, three average or better secondaries, and at least average command from an athletic frame. At his best, we're talking about an explosive riding fastball touching the upper 90's, a pair of wicked breaking balls, and an above average changeup, all of which he can command with precision. Dollander is still a potential ace and has a nice floor as a #3/#4 starter.

2-46: LHP Sean Sullivan, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $1.87 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($168,400 below slot value).
My rank: #78. MLB Pipeline: #123. Baseball America: #77. Prospects Live: #64.
Sean Sullivan has one of the most unique profiles in this year's draft class, though ironically he's a very similar pick to last year's Rockies third rounder Carson Palmquist. Originally a Northwestern Wildcat, he transferred to Wake Forest this year and put together a fantastic season, posting a 2.87 ERA and a 90/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, like Chase Dollander playing in a hitter-friendly home park. Sullivan's fastball only sits around 90 and tops out around 94, which in today's day and age is pretty unimpressive, but it plays way, way above its velocity because it has an elite combination of flat plane and riding action. Hitters whiffed at the pitch like he was throwing upper 90's, looking hopeless when he located it up in the zone. He adds a sweepy slider that looks average, playing well off his fastball when he locates it, and his changeup could be an above average pitch with nice fading action. The story, though, is the fastball, and the Rockies will try to add a tick or two of velocity to ensure it plays against pro hitters. From there, helping his offspeed stuff take a step forward could make him a mid rotation starter. The 6'4" lefty is still projectable, and his athleticism is apparent in his sidearm delivery with great separation. It's not unlikely that he'll add that velocity, and his athleticism also enables him to pound the strike zone with above average command, rarely throwing an uncompetitive pitch. He's only thrown three appearances, but he has looked elite with four no-hit innings, allowing just one walk against ten strikeouts.

CBB-65: C Cole Carrigg, San Diego State {video}
Slot value: $1.18 million. Signing bonus: $1.3 million ($115,900 above slot value).
My rank: #104. MLB Pipeline: #47. Baseball America: #89. Prospects Live: #122.
If Sean Sullivan brings a unique pitching profile, Cole Carrigg brings an equally unique position player profile. He was one guy that many data-oriented prospect lists soured on this spring, my own included, and in hindsight I regret that a bit and wish I didn't drop him from my top one hundred. Carrigg hit .388 as a sophomore, pushing his name into the fringes of the first round conversation, but took a slight step back in 2023 and slashed .313/.367/.473 with two home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 22/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games. At the plate, he shows plus bat to ball skills with the ability to get to balls all over and outside of the zone, utilizing a line drive approach where he shoots the ball into the gaps and lets his wheels do the rest. He's extremely aggressive at the plate, chasing a third of pitches out of the zone for the highest chase rate on my entire draft board, so the overall hit tool may even out to above average rather than plus, and either way he rarely ever walks with just a 5.2% free pass rate in 2023. In the power deparment, Carrigg isn't offering much. The exit velocities are squarely below average and he doesn't look to lift the ball, with just seven career home runs in 132 games despite playing in a hitter-friendly Mountain West Conference and in a 2023 season that saw increased offense around college baseball. So in all, we're looking at an aggressive bat to ball-oriented bat that can hit for a high average, with power and walks likely not to be a big part of his game. It's a truly old school offensive profile. Meanwhile, the defense might be even more interesting. The Central Valley native is one of the best athletes in the entire class, bar none, and that athleticism shines in a big way through his versatility. Last year on the Cape alone, he appeared on the mound, behind the plate, at second base, shortstop, and third base, and in both center and right fields. It wasn't just a gimmick, either – Carrigg can really handle all those positions. He's already appeared at catcher, shortstop, and center field in the Rockies organization and could be an Alfredo Amezaga, Brandon Inge-like super utility man, except Amezaga couldn't catch and Inge wasn't cut out for shortstop. Carrigg is a plus runner so his range plays everywhere, while his plus-plus arm was evident at the MLB Draft Combine where he hit triple digits on throws from the outfield. If Carrigg can find a way to add some power and cut down on his chases, he has a shot to be a star. Upon looking back into this profile, I do regret getting so caught up in his chase rates and low exit velocities and letting him fall to #104 on my board. He's off to a red hot start, slashing .359/.415/.626 with five home runs, thirteen stolen bases, and a 32/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Fresno. Interestingly enough in those 33 games, he has already far surpassed his home run (2), strikeout (22), and walk (9) totals that he put up in 41 games at San Diego State.

3-77: RHP Jack Mahoney, South Carolina {video}
Slot value: $930,600. Signing bonus: $925,000 ($5,600 below slot value).
My rank: #154. MLB Pipeline: #120. Baseball America: #176. Prospects Live: #85.
Jack Mahoney gives the Rockies a pretty straightforward back-end starting pitching prospect. After missing 2022 with Tommy John surgery, he returned strong in 2023 with a 4.16 ERA and an 84/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.1 innings, proving to be one of the more consistent starting pitchers in the SEC outside of the big names. He has plenty of arm strength, with a low to mid 90's fastball that touches 97 with running action. His downer slider looks like an above average pitch with late, bat missing bite, while his changeup gives him a third usable pitch. Mahoney has short arm action and hides the ball well, repeating his simple delivery well for above average command to make everything play up. With a sturdy 6'3" frame, the Chicago-area native has all the ingredients necessary to become a #4 starter. Of note, he's on the older side for the class and turned 22 a month after the draft, but he shouldn't need too much development to get to the bigs. In two innings in the Arizona Complex League, he allowed two runs on three hits, one walk, and three strikeouts.

4-109: LHP Isaiah Coupet, Ohio State {video}
Slot value: $615,500. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($15,500 below slot value).
My rank: #123. MLB Pipeline: #189. Baseball America: #164. Prospects Live: #92.
While Jack Mahoney's profile is straightforward, Isaiah Coupet is a little more unusual. He's coming off a strong season at Ohio State where he posted a 3.55 ERA and a 72/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.2 innings, and also showed well in the Cape Cod League last summer. He sits around 90 with his fastball and touches 94 at peak, but the heater isn't the draw here. Instead, Coupet can spin a breaking ball with the best of them. His slider and curveball are both distinct breakers with their own movement profiles and both grade out as plus, making for a very unique look as a hitter. On the surface, it looks like a relief profile. The 6'1" lefty has a bit of a stiff delivery that relies heavily on his drive from the rubber and he doesn't have much of a changeup at this point. However, he has maintained his stuff and command deep into starts, so if the Rockies can find a way to help him add a tick or two of velocity and get that changeup moving along, he could be a back-end starter. The floor here is still very nice as a junkballing lefty reliever that could be a nightmare from a matchup perspective. He's also extremely young for a college junior, over a year younger than Mahoney and not set to turn 21 until the end of September. In 3.1 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Fresno, he has yet to allow a run and has struck out five against one walk.

5-145: 3B Kyle Karros, UCLA {video}
Slot value: $433,500. Signing bonus: $433,500.
My rank: #148. MLB Pipeline: #136. Baseball America: #103. Prospects Live: #175.
Kyle Karros has baseball in his bloodlines. His father, Eric, starred at UCLA and twelve years with the Dodgers, while his brother, Jared, also starred at UCLA and is currently in the Dodgers' minor league system. Kyle was the third Karros to star at UCLA, but he'll head across the Rocky Mountains to Colorado as a pro, at least keeping the NL West a family affair. He was a breakout pick after a big sophomore year in 2022, and after coming out of the gates hot in 2023, he began to push his name into top three round territory. However, he slumped hard in Pac-12 play and finished the season with a pedestrian .284/.372/.420 slash line, five home runs, and a 35/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. In addition to his in-conference struggles (.193/.277/.273 in 23 games), he didn't hit well on the Cape either (.157/.279/.157 in 18 games), calling into question his ability to provide impact against advanced pitching. Still, the Rockies love his upside. Karros stands 6'5" with long arms and legs, and given that he didn't turn 21 until after the draft, he's as projectable as they come for a college hitter. Like many Bruins, he employs a contact-oriented approach from the right side, looking to use the whole field and showing solid contact rates. That approach does sap his power a bit, with below average exit velocities that point to below average game power, but given his  size and frame he should be able to get to at least average with a different approach. He has become more disciplined as a hitter during his time in Westwood, but his chase rates still remain a bit elevated especially against quality stuff. Overall, it's a bit of a confounding offensive profile that the Rockies may have to get creative to put together. Defensively, Karros shows great body control at third base lending confidence that he'll stick there despite his lanky frame and below average speed, with a plus arm to round out the profile. That defensive aptitude certainly won't hurt him as he works to find his identity as a hitter. So far, he's slashing .288/.401/.339 with a 23/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Fresno, though the numbers did dip after his promotion to the latter.

6-172: RHP Cade Denton, Oral Roberts {video}
Slot value: $336,700. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($163,300 above slot value).
My rank: #149. MLB Pipeline: #184. Baseball America: #203. Prospects Live: #160.
Ranking right next to Kyle Karros on my draft board, Cade Denton is a fun one. He has been untouchable the last two seasons at Oral Roberts, combining for a 1.25 ERA and a 141/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 107.2 innings out of the Golden Eagles bullpen. Denton is a high octane arm with a low to mid 90's fastball that can reach 99 in short stints, coming in with flat plane from a lower slot with running and sinking action when he wants it. His short, hard slider flashes plus and gives him a wicked one-two punch, while his changeup is a distant third pitch at this point. The 6'3" righty pounds the strike zone with a simple, athletic delivery and has controlled at bats from start to finish in Tulsa, and he may actually be able to transition to starting if the Rockies go that route. In that case, he would have to prove he can continue to repeat his delivery deep into starts while also bringing that changeup along, but he has the arm strength and projectable frame to get it done. If he stays in the bullpen, which is ultimately more likely, his fastball/slider combination will be deadly with his solid command. He could move quickly in that role. So far, he has a 4.66 ERA and a 12/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Fresno.

7-202: RHP Seth Halvorsen, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $263,200. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($63,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #253.
Seth Halvorsen has been around a long time. Known for his arm strength as a prep in the 2018 class, he began his college career at Missouri but between Tommy John surgery, command problems, duties as a hitter, and the pandemic, he never put it together for the Tigers. After four years in Columbia, in which he only really pitched in one save for 5.1 innings as a freshman in 2019, he transferred to Tennessee and put together his best season yet with a 3.81 ERA and a 52/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings. He's another high octane arm, showing a mid 90's fastball that can hit triple digits at best with riding life. He shows a hard slider and a new and improved splitter, together making for a tough three pitch mix with everything coming in hard. The 6'2" righty has significantly improved his control in Knoxville to the point where he can get ahead in counts and help his stuff play up, though he's very much control over command. Now 23 and a half years old, he'll be a reliever long term where he can continue to attack hitters head on with his explosive stuff. So long as his command holds together and he can stay healthy, he should be a quick mover. In fact, he's already flying through the minors with a 2.92 ERA and a 12/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12.1 innings between the Arizona Complex League, High A Spokane, and AA Hartford.

19-562: LHP Kannon Handy, Colorado Mesa {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
There's not much information out there on Kannon Handy, but I wanted to highlight him as a hometown mountain kid. Handy grew up in the southwestern Salt Lake City suburb of Herriman and attended Jordan High School in nearby Sandy, then crossed the state line to pitch at Colorado Mesa University in Grand Junction. After four years and over two hundred innings there, he'll continue east on I-70 to pitch in the Rockies' organization. Handy didn't necessarily have a standout season in 2023, pitching to a 5.57 ERA and an 88/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings against Division II competition. An article I found from a couple years ago noted him as having a low 90's fastball, a curveball, and a changeup, though I don't know if that's still the case. Already 23 years old, he has a big, physical frame at 6'3" with plenty of arm strength, though his command is probably fringy. That's about all I have on him. He made two appearances in the Arizona Complex League and allowed one hit and no runs or walks across 1.2 innings, striking out two.

Friday, August 19, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

The Rockies employed a bit of an odd draft strategy. There are other players I would have reached for first, but I don't really mind them reaching down the board for Gabriel Hughes given that they saved nearly a million dollars off slot value. What's odd is that they went for such a massive discount early despite having both a compensation pick and a competitive balance pick to play with, and then they never actually spent all that money they saved. In fact, they only borrowed six figures above slot value twice, once with competitive balance pick Jordan Beck ($147,700 above) and once with second rounder Jackson Cox ($304,700 above). That means they left $400,000 on the table despite the fact that the draft is the single most cost-effective way to acquire talent. Not a good look. They held four of the first fifty picks, and while they brought in some nice talent, I'm a bit underwhelmed by what they brought in there. Starting in the third round, they got a little more creative and I liked what they did with those rounds 3-5 picks. Interestingly, even though they left an early fifth round pick's worth of bonus pool money on the table, they gave numerous bonuses that were just slightly above slot value, often by less than $10,000. Just an odd draft all around.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-10: RHP Gabriel Hughes, Gonzaga. My rank: #24.
Slot value: $4.98 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($983,000 below slot value).
So Gabriel Hughes is probably not a top ten talent in this draft (you can see I have him closer to the back of the first round on my board at #24), and the Rockies recognized that by giving him closer to the slot value for the 16th pick, saving nearly a million dollars in the process. I find it extremely odd that they didn't redeploy that money, but for Hughes' sake, that's neither here nor there. In Hughes, the Rockies get a native son of the Rocky Mountains who grew up in the Boise suburb of Eagle, Idaho and attended, aptly, Rocky Mountain High School. He gradually built his stock throughout his time at Gonzaga and broke out as a junior, where he posted a 3.21 ERA and a 138/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 innings. He was overused in Spokane, throwing at least six innings in all fifteen of his starts and regularly climbing well over one hundred pitches, so he tired later in the season and allowed four, four, and six runs over his final three starts to bump his ERA from 2.44 to 3.21 in that span. When Hughes is on, he's untouchable. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and regularly gets up to 97 with some hop to it, while his slider comes in with sharp, two plane break and his changeup represents a third solid pitch. Previously noted for having below average command, he looked solid average in that regard at times during the season but is probably closer to fringe-average for now. On top of his loud stuff, the 6'4" righty is a very good athlete that gets down the mound well with good extension, giving hope that he should end up with at least average command in time. Hughes is very young for a college junior, only turning 21 in August, and he has also been noted for his intense competitiveness on the mound and strong makeup and work ethic. He's a very smart kid that knows what he needs to do to get better, then will do everything he can to deploy it on the mound and be the best he can be. If he can refine his command a little bit and build up his durability, he has a chance to be a frontline starter and one of the best in this draft class.

1C-31: OF Sterlin Thompson, Florida. My rank: #52.
Slot value: $2.43 million. Signing bonus: $2.43 million.
There was a glut of college bats, especially college outfielders, in this range of the draft, and that's why Sterlin Thompson fell out of my top fifty. Regardless, he's a very solid player who has a chance to be an all-around contributor in Colorado. Potentially a casualty of the five round draft in 2020, he reached campus at Florida for the 2021 season and showed well enough as a freshman to put his name into third round consideration for the 2022 draft. In 2022, he came out looking more physical and more explosive, and the result was a .354/.443/.563 slash line, eleven home runs, and a 47/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games that pushed him into the compensation round. Thompson lacks a carrying tool, aside from a great baseball name, but does a lot of things very well. As he's filled out his 6'4" frame and channeled that into his powerful left handed swing, he's begun to tap above average power in games that should play with wood bats. He makes plenty of contact and has cleaned up his swing as well, keeping his strikeouts down and handling premium velocity well in the SEC. That looks like a potential 20-25 home run bat with solid on-base percentages, and playing home games at Coors Field could have him approaching thirty home runs a year at peak. The Ocala, Florida native isn't quite fast enough to play center field, but he's a solid athlete that can handle himself in either corner outfield spot and he's also seen some time at second base if the Rockies really want to expand his versatility. It's not necessarily a future star profile, but one that has a very good chance to be a very solid regular and is trending in the right direction. He's slashing .300/.370/.450 with one home run and a 14/2 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games in the Arizona Complex League.

CBA-38: OF Jordan Beck, Tennessee. My rank: #51.
Slot value: $2.05 million. Signing bonus: $2.2 million ($147,700 above slot value).
Jordan Beck, like Sterlin Thompson, was a casualty on my list of that glut of college bats, with both falling towards the back end of that tier. The Rockies, however, have to be thrilled to land Beck here after he had been mocked to them frequently at the tenth overall pick. I always thought that was a little rich and perhaps Beck was a bit overhyped throughout the draft cycle, but I doubt Colorado expected he would be available to them not only at their second pick at #31, but at their third pick at #38. He has gradually built his stock at Tennessee and was right in the middle of the Volunteers' mid-season run as the best team in the country, slashing .298/.391/.595 with 18 home runs and a 62/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. After striking out in over 20% of his plate appearances in 2021, he came out of the gate hot in 2022 and showed much better control of the strike zone, though those swing and miss concerns crept back up throughout the season and he finished with almost the exact same strikeout rate as last season. He shows off plus raw power to all fields from a short, quick uppercut, with great feel for the barrel that enables him to make a ton of hard contact. He chased a lot in 2021 but was a bit better in that regard in 2022, but his steep swing path still led to swings and misses in the zone and that may continue to be the case in pro ball. The good news is that when Beck does hit the ball, he hits it hard and does damage, and at Coors Field that's a great trait to have. While the North Alabama native doesn't have Thompson's hit tool, he's a better runner that does have an outside chance to play center field and would slot very well in right field with his plus arm. Like much of his Tennessee teammates, Beck is also noted as an intense competitor. He's off to a hot start in the Arizona Complex League, slashing .371/.476/.571 with a home run and a 9/7 strikeout to walk ratio through eleven games.

2-50: RHP Jackson Cox, Toutle Lake HS [WA]. My rank: #89.
Slot value: $1.55 million. Signing bonus: $1.85 million ($304,700 above slot value).
The Rockies' largest over slot bonus of the draft came in the second round, when they gave Jackson Cox more than $300,000 extra to steer clear of an Oregon commitment and instead head out to Denver. Like the three players drafted ahead of him in this class, he has been a well-known name throughout the cycle that really shined in the spring to continue to build his stock. Cox sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and bumped 98 this spring, a significant increase from where he sat over the summer. His slider is his best pitch, with massive spin rates and nasty late bite that make it a true plus pitch that will continue to miss bunches of bats in pro ball. There's a solid changeup in there as well, giving him a strong three pitch mix to run it out there as a starter. The 6'1" righty does come with some relief risk, however, as he has had inconsistent command in the past (though it was better this spring even as his stuff ticked up) and doesn't have the most athletic delivery, with a short stride and a high release. It's hard to find his combination of fastball velocity and breaking ball quality outside the first round, especially when they can hold the strike zone for the most part, so the Rockies are very excited to bring him into their system.

3-88: LHP Carson Palmquist, Miami. My rank: #60.
Slot value: $713,300. Signing bonus: $775,000 ($61,700 above slot value).
Carson Palmquist is a fun one, and probably my favorite of their picks this year. He has dominated throughout his time at Miami, and in 2022 made the jump to the rotation with a 2.89 ERA and a 118/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 innings. Palmquist is the rare sidearm starting pitcher, with very few major league comps to work with aside from Chris Sale, which has been thrown around a lot. He touched 96 as a reliever last year, but hovered closer to 90 as a starter this spring, though the pitch did play above its velocity due to the funky slot giving it some rise. His best pitch is a plus slider with late, short bite to it, while his changeup gives him a third solid pitch to work with. Palmquist controls the zone extremely well with above average command, going right after hitters and keeping them off balance throughout the at bat. Evaluators watched the Fort Myers native's transition to the rotation very closely this spring to see if he could stick as a starter, and the answer seems to be a very resounding "maybe." His stuff did take a step back in those extended outings, but the results were still very strong and he ran an excellent 33% strikeout rate. He's built like a string bean at 6'3", with a narrow frame that seems unlikely to add much weight, so it's also not clear how durable he would be in a starter's role. We can point back to his averaging more than five innings and 87 pitches per start at Miami this spring, but once a week for sixteen weeks is still different than once every five days for six months. Given the command and his ability to make his stuff play above its velocity, I would absolutely run him out as a starter and see what happens. If he does have to go back to the bullpen, the idea of well commanded 93-95 from a sidearming lefty with a plus slider sounds very enticing. I like the opportunity with this pick, and they also have a chance to get creative in his development. He tossed a scoreless inning, walking two while striking out one, in his Arizona Complex League debut.

4-116: SS Ryan Ritter, Kentucky. My rank: #162.
Slot value: $522,900. Signing bonus: $530,000 ($7,100 above slot value).
Ryan Ritter is an interesting pick. I thought he might make more sense about a round or so later, but he's a great fit for the Rockies and I'm interested to see how this works out. Ritter spent a year at John A. Logan JC in Illinois before transferring to Kentucky, where he gradually built a solid mid day two case. In 2022, he slashed .283/.369/.469 with eight home runs and a 68/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, which is solid but unremarkable. Interestingly enough, he's a two year performer in the Cape Cod League, slashing a combined .292/.394/.435 with four home runs and a 48/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games between last summer and this summer, which certainly grabs my interest given the sample size. Ritter is solidly built but not overly physical at 6'2", using a quick uppercut to maximize his fringy raw power and make it play in games. When he elevates the ball, he elevates with authority, and Coors Field is the perfect place for a profile like that. He's an aggressive hitter that chases and also swings through some hittable pitches, giving him a below average hit tool, so managing the zone will be extremely important during his transition to pro ball. The Chicago-area native is a great defender with quick twitch athleticism at shortstop and a plus arm, so he'll almost certainly stick at the position and that will take significant pressure off his bat. I'm not sold on the overall profile that could end up with 40 hit, 45 power, but I'm definitely interested and at Coors he could hit 15-20 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, which should be enough to play every day given his defensive value. Like Jordan Beck, he's off to a hot start in the Arizona Complex League, slashing .348/.400/.739 with one home run and a 3/1 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games.

5-146: RHP Connor Staine, Central Florida. My rank: #80.
Slot value: $390,800. Signing bonus: $400,00 ($9,200 above slot value).
The Rockies made another interesting pick here, grabbing a risky arm with a ton of upside in the fifth round. Connor Staine began his career at Maryland and transferred to UCF this year, where he got off to a red hot start with 33.2 consecutive scoreless innings to begin the season. That put his name squarely in the second round conversation, but back and blister issues derailed his season from there and he made just four more starts totaling just 10.2 innings after those eight consecutive scoreless starts to begin the season, finishing with a 1.87 ERA and a 51/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.1 innings. When he's healthy, he shows tremendous potential in the right development system. Staine sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has gotten up to 97, adding a full arsenal of solid offspeed stuff led by a slider that flashes above average. It's not the loudest stuff you've ever seen, but it's all plenty projectable and will play well in pro ball. The 6'4" righty is very athletic on the mound with a smooth delivery and a projectable frame, leading me to think there is plenty more in the tank. He fills up the strike zone pretty well but has never shown consistent command as he's battled those nagging injuries, and that will be a point of development going forward. If Staine can stay healthy and continue trending in the right direction like he is, he strikes me as the kind of guy that just continues to get better and better and becomes a mid rotation starter. The New Jersey native has to prove he's durable enough to handle a starter's workload though.

6-176: RHP Michael Prosecky, Louisville. My rank: #214.
Slot value: $296,300. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($3,700 above slot value).
Michael Prosecky has been on an interesting run. He earned significant draft interest out of high school in the Chicago area, but made it to campus at Louisville, got some innings in the shortened 2020 season, then struggled to throw strikes and barely pitched in 2021. He started to turn the corner with a strong run through the Cape Cod League that summer, posting a 1.61 ERA and a 30/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.1 innings, then continued to show well in fall practice, leading many scouts to tab him as a breakout candidate for 2022. While it was certainly his best season in Louisville, Prosecky didn't quite "break out," posting a 3.38 ERA and a 44/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings out of the bullpen. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 97 with steep angle that makes it more of a weak contact pitch than a bat misser. He spins a big curveball that gets him swings and misses, adding a slider and changeup that round out his arsenal. Big and projectable at 6'3", he has a simple, low effort delivery but hasn't been consistent enough with his command to give confidence about a future in the rotation. I do think he could start in the right system, though with the Rockies he will probably be better off focusing one one or two offspeeds and letting his fastball sit in the mid 90's where it can miss more bats. The command should also play up in that role. He tossed a perfect inning in his Arizona Complex League debut, striking out one.

10-296: RHP Zach Agnos, East Carolina. My rank: #205.
Slot value: $153,200. Signing bonus: $165,000 ($11,800 above slot value).
I actually had Zach Agnos on my board primarily as a position player, coming off a strong year with the bat in which he slashed .330/.405/.479 with seven home runs and a 66/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games, but the Rockies picked him up as a pitcher. Coming out of the ECU bullpen, he posted a 2.31 ERA and a 19/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings, and he'll continue to serve in that role with the Rockies. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, up to around 95, and adds a full set of secondaries. He has feel to spin two breaking balls as well as a solid changeup, commanding everything fairly well to boot. It's not a ton of velocity especially given that he's already only throwing in short stints, but it plays up a big because he gets low in his delivery and puts a relatively flat approach angle on his fastball. There is enough arm strength here to potentially think he could maintain something like 90-92 in a starter's role, especially given that he'll be focusing on pitching alone, though the Rockies will probably be best off just keeping him in the bullpen and letting the deep arsenal give hitters a different look than typical. If he ever does pick up the bat again, the Northern Virginia native consistently hits the ball hard and has a patient approach, but he doesn't lift the ball well and probably doesn't have the bat to ball skills to make the necessary swing adjustment to lift the ball more. In Coors, value comes from balls in the air, so he probably wouldn't be a great fit there as a hitter.

14-416: RHP Braxton Hyde, Butler County JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: undisclosed.
In the fourteenth round, the Rockies brought home a semi-hometown player who grew up on the High Plains. Braxton Hyde is a native of Liberal, Kansas, just north of the Oklahoma Panhandle and just over an hour east of the Colorado border. He has spent two years at Butler County in JC just outside of Wichita, and this year posted a 4.68 ERA and a 98/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings, though Baseball America notes that the Kansas JuCo circuit is a very hitter-friendly environment. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 95, working down the mound with a short, hard slider and a solid changeup. There's some effort in his delivery and he could probably use something a little softer if he wants to miss more bats in pro ball, but the stuff would play very well in relief where it could all tick up in power. He had been committed to Oral Roberts but will instead head across the plains to Denver.

19-566: 3B Skyler Messinger, Texas. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: undisclosed.
Fourteenth rounder Braxton Hyde was a semi-hometown pick because western Kansas is closer to Denver than it is to Kansas City, but Skyler Messinger is a true hometown guy. He grew up a Rockies fan in Niwot, a small suburban community between Boulder and Longmont up north of Denver, and spent the first four years of his college career down I-70 at Kansas. Transferring to Texas as a fifth year senior this year, he had his best year yet by slashing .364/.414/.560 with eleven home runs and a 58/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. He is an aggressive hitter that is always looking to do damage, taking big, healthy hacks from the right side that help lead to average power. He especially loves to turn on the ball and drive it to left field, and that elevate and celebrate mindset will serve him well at Coors Field. The other element of being aggressive means that he chases fairly regularly, leading to a 20.5% strikeout rate and a very low 6.4% walk rate. He'll have to tighten that up in pro ball to hit his way through the system. Defensively, he has manned third base for the Longhorns and figures to play there in pro ball. Messinger is slashing .200/.294/.200 with a 3/1 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games in the Arizona Complex League.

Tuesday, August 17, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

This is a really interesting draft for the Rockies because they are really leaning on their development here. None of their early picks are anywhere close to finished products, with all requiring significant development in one way or another to reach their lofty ceilings. It will be an interesting ride for them with a hit and miss track record with prospects, but they're clearly trusting their system here to get these guys right and bring out the best in themselves. In a vacuum, I think third rounder McCade Brown would be my favorite pick, but he'll require a lot of work and I'm not bullish on their ability to get him right so I'll note seventh rounder Evan Shawver as my favorite for this system. They did focus on the battery, drafting seven pitchers or catchers in a row after first round outfielder Benny Montgomery.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-8: OF Benny Montgomery, Red Land HS [PA]. My rank: #13.
No park amplifies offensive tools, and even defensive tools for outfielders, quite like Coors Field, and Benny Montgomery has them in spades. Perhaps the most physically gifted player in the class, Montgomery is hoping to combine freak athleticism with a strong work ethic for a long, successful big league career. He shows true plus raw power from an ideal 6'4" frame, flinging the barrel through the zone with tremendous force matched by very few in this class. Once he puts the ball in play and it's not over the fence, he shows blazing speed that could beat all but maybe a select few from this draft class in a foot race. And in the outfield, when he's not tracking down fly balls on the other side of the zip code, he'll show off a plus arm that stops runners dead in their tracks. It's a physical package that doesn't come around every draft, perhaps a bit like Garrett Mitchell from 2020 but right handed. Really, the only drawback in Montgomery's profile is his hit tool, which happens to be an extremely important one. The Harrisburg-area native has a choppy swing that can look pieced together at times, leading to swing and miss issues when his hitch makes him late on a fastball. There are some pitch recognition questions as well, sometimes getting out in front of breaking balls and rolling them over. He did clean up his swing a bit this spring and showed moderate improvement with that hit tool, and Rockies officials are confident that his tireless work ethic, combined with their development system, will help him iron out those issues. If he can, this guy could put up a 40-40 season at Coors with a ceiling of peak Aaron Judge but faster. Committed to Virginia, he instead signed for $5 million, which was roughly $180,000 below slot value, and he has four singles in twelve at bats so far in the ACL.

2-44: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State. My rank: #75.
There may be no nationally-known player in this draft for which opinions range quite as wide as they do as for Jaden Hill, who ranked #24 at Baseball America, #36 on MLB Pipeline, #75 on my board, #79 at Prospects Live, and outside the top 100 or even top 150 on some other individual boards I've seen. Hill was a well-known prospect in high school, but ended up at LSU and saw his stock explode with video game numbers over his first two seasons, albeit in a small sample size (0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP). Heading into the 2021 season, he was a bona fide top ten prospect in the class that had a chance to pitch his way into the Pirates' organization as the first overall pick with a strong spring. In his first two seasons in Baton Rouge, the southwest Arkansas native flashed a sinker up to 98-99, a plus changeup that had been his bread and butter for a while, and a rapidly improving slider that was flashing plus-plus at its best. Unfortunately, 2021 was an absolute disaster, as he was sporting a 6.67 ERA and a 25/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings when he walked off the field during an April 2nd start against Vanderbilt in considerable pain. Unfortunately, our worst fears were confirmed when it was announced he would undergo season ending Tommy John surgery, and now it's hard to know what to make of the young man's future. He showed the same big velocity that made him famous, but hitters picked up the sinker out of his hand and hit him hard when he left it over the plate. Perhaps more importantly, the slider that had showed signs of becoming one of the best breaking balls in the draft had completely backed up, failing to even elicit average grades from evaluators. The changeup maintained its plus movement, but without the other two pitches to play off, it couldn't hold his stat line together. The 6'4" righty is a very strong, physical kid who played quarterback at Ashdown High School in Arkansas, but he's sustained numerous injuries playing other sports and has never been on the mound for long stretches at a time. You have to question the durability at this point and whether he'll ever be able to provide 150 innings a year in a big league rotation. However, you absolutely cannot write him off as a potential impact relief arm or even a closer. Sinkers may be going out of style when they're thrown in their typical low 90's range, but turbo sinkers in the mid to upper 90's are still in and the Rockies can look to Zack Britton (albeit a right handed version) as someone who has found plenty of success that way. If Colorado can piece Hill back together, helping him get more consistent with that slider as well as his fastball location, they'll have an impact arm on their hands regardless of his eventual role. If the nagging injuries turn out to just be growing pains from being a multi-sport star and he recovers successfully from Tommy John surgery, he still has every chance to be a top of the rotation starter. He signed for full slot value at $1.69 million.

CBB-68: LHP Joe Rock, Ohio. My rank: #80.
I always found Joe Rock a tough one to pin down to a certain region on my board, whether that was in the second round range or outside the top one hundred. It's a pretty interesting profile, one that could end up developing in any number of ways. Rock was unremarkable as a freshman (5.19 ERA, 41/37 K/BB against ordinary competition) and redshirted his sophomore year, but came out showing hugely improved stuff in the fall of 2020. He carried that over for the most part into 2021, where he put up a 2.33 ERA and a 117/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, albeit again against a pretty ordinary schedule. The 6'6" lefty can get up to 96 early in his starts then settles into the low 90's as his starts progress, sometimes going a tick below that later in the spring. He adds a sweepy slider that looks above average when it's located well, and his changeup shows nice drop that should play really nicely off his other two pitches as he continues to refine his feel for it. It's a tough angle for hitters because Rock from a low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot, while his height enables him to get down the mound and release the ball out in front. The low slot also puts a unique movement pattern on his stuff, giving the fastball more run and sink and making the hitter have to think more horizontally. The Pittsburgh-area native also has plenty of projection in his huge frame and doesn't throw with a ton of effort, so even if his fastball was in the upper 80's at times this spring, his loose operation promises more velocity to come. The age is a big positive as well, as he's young for the class and didn't turn 21 until after the draft. Now with all the signs pointing to him continuing to improve, I'm not entirely sure how much ceiling he truly has, as sinkerballers are getting hit harder nowadays and he lacks the plus putaway pitch (at least for now) that he'll need to be more than a #3 starter, especially with fringe-average command. Rock signed for full slot value at $953,100.

3-79: RHP McCade Brown, Indiana. My rank: #58.
This one is absolutely fascinating to me, and McCade Brown has a chance to be the best pitcher to come out of this Rockies draft class if they develop him right (and he was the highest ranked on my board anyways). Brown was a complete non-factor over his first two seasons at Indiana, throwing just 6.2 innings but allowing eleven earned runs while walking thirteen over six games (three starts). He completely turned it around over the summer and kept that momentum through fall practice and into the first half of the season, though he was a bit inconsistent later on. Overall, he posted a 3.39 ERA and a 97/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings, highlighted back to back gems against Rutgers and Penn State to start the season in which he tossed fourteen innings and allowed just one run on seven baseunners while striking out 28. At his best, the central Illinois native can be absolutely untouchable, showing a fastball up to 96 as well as an absolute hammer of a curveball and a tight, late slider. Here is some fall video, which captures him at his best. Now there's still a lot of work to do. The 6'6" righty improved his command from non-playable to fringe-average, but it was exposed to be safely below average over longer stints this spring. His stuff wasn't always at its best, either, sometimes losing a touch of velocity or seeing his breaking balls back up a bit. Brown is very young for the class, not turning 21 until more than a month after the draft, and given how far he's come in such a short period of time it's natural to have some bumps in the road. That's what the Rockies will tell themselves as they work to refine his delivery, build strength, and overall just get him to that best version of himself more often than not. There's a ton of upside here and I'm really interested to see how he turns out. Brown signed for slot value at $780,400.

4-109: C Hunter Goodman, Memphis. My rank: #110.
Last year, the Rockies drafted a glove first high school catcher named Drew Romo in the comp round, but he's off to a hot .328/.361/.461 start with the bat so far at Low A Fresno this summer. They'll give him a bat-first counterpart in Hunter Goodman, and the two could work their way up together and eventually work in tandem as long term catchers in Colorado. Goodman has put up tremendous numbers at Memphis, slashing .323/.388/.638 with 42 home runs and a 124/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games for his career, including a .307/.401/.678 line and a career-high 21 home runs this spring. This is a big power bat that has never had any trouble tapping it in games, even as an underclassman in the elite Cape Cod League in 2019 when he blasted eight home runs in 43 games. The power comes from all the strength he packs into his 6'1" frame in addition to the leverage he's able to produce and his willingness to attack hittable pitches. Now, even though he never had a power drought at any point in his amateur career, he is fairly raw as a hitter. The Memphis-area native shows a pretty swing in batting practice, but it can get choppy in games and he doesn't always get his best swing off. He's also been extremely aggressive throughout his career, walking at just a 4.2% rate over his first two years at Memphis and just 1.8% on the Cape. That improved in 2021, when he bumped his walk rate up to 12.4%, but he still struck out at a career-high 21.9% rate, simply working his way into deeper counts rather than seriously improving his pitch selection. Behind the plate, Goodman's actions remain fringy, and while his strong arm and the possible coming of robot umpires gives him a chance to stick there, I personally feel as though the bar for catcher defense is or should be elevated at Coors Field where pitchers really need to trust their catchers. If he has to move to first base, it immediately becomes a pretty boom or bust profile. No matter what the strikeout and walk numbers are, you absolutely can't deny the numbers and the consistency of his in-game power at Memphis, especially from a catcher, so we are talking the upside of a legitimate power hitting starting catcher if he makes the transition well. Goodman signed for $600,000, which was $67,000 above slot value, and he's hitting .333/.375/.467 through five games in the ACL.

6-170: C Braxton Fulford, Texas Tech. Unranked.
The Rockies didn't have any hometown picks this year, so the closest we'll get is by heading down to the high plains of West Texas, where we get Texas Tech catcher Braxton Fulford, a Lubbock native. Even though it's in Texas, Lubbock is barely farther from Denver as it is from Houston, so we'll roll with it and call it a stretch of a semi-hometown pick. Fulford has been a staple behind the plate for the Red Raiders for four years now, and he had his best season yet in 2021 by slashing .264/.395/.590 with 14 home runs and a 54/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. Unlike Hunter Goodman, Fulford really stands out for his work behind the plate. He's extremely agile back there and can get back and forth to block balls in the dirt, then pop up quickly with a lightning fast transfer to show off his above average arm and nail runners trying to take a base. His energy back there is contagious and pitchers love working with him, something that will be very important in a place like Coors Field. Previously a light hitting glove-first guy, he exploded for a career high 14 home runs this spring after totaling five in 117 games over his first three seasons, and now that outlook has changed a bit. It still remains to be seen whether he'll make enough contact to tap that power in pro ball, having struck out at a 24.5% rate this spring, but if he can he does have some upside as a starter given his defense. More likely though, he'll probably end up a glove-first backup that can ambush mistake pitches out of the park. Fulford signed for $280,000, which was $16,400 below slot value, and he has one hit in five at bats so far in the ACL.

7-200: LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati. My rank: #140.
Evan Shawver entered the spring as a favorite sleeper among Midwest area scouts and data-driven scouts alike, and while he didn't quite go bust in 2021, he didn't quite build on his promise either. Shawver had a rough freshman season before turning it around as a sophomore, then settled in with a strong if not flashy junior season by posting a 2.72 ERA and a 49/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.1 innings. Just before the draft, he did make a late push to get some "flash" into his profile by winning Cape Cod League pitcher of the week honors in late June on the heels of back to back scoreless six inning starts in which he struck out 22 of the 48 batters he faced. Shawver may be undersized, but he doesn't lack in stuff with a low 90's fastball that usually tops out around 94 but has gotten up to 97 in short stints, coming in with high spin rates and a low release height that give it great riding life. He adds an above average to plus slider and an average changeup, all of which he locates well with solid average command. The 6' lefty faces durability questions because of his skinny frame and the fact that he missed some time this spring with nagging injuries while his delivery is moderately high effort. I think the national baseball media put too much into that and him underrated a bit (unranked on MLB Pipeline top 250, #387 on the Baseball America 500, #262 on the Prospects Live top 600), and he has a good chance to be a very useful #3 or #4 starter if the Rockies can pack a little more strength in there. The Cleveland-area native signed for full slot value at $231,100.

8-230: OF Robby Martin, Florida State. My rank: #133.
As with a lot of other players in this class, I find Robby Martin to be interesting as well. Coming into the season, he reminded me a bit of where JJ Bleday was pre-junior season (though if you'll remember, Bleday was not considered a top of the draft prospect at that point), with maybe a half grade less on all of his tools. Like Bleday, he was an all fields, line drive hitter that had grown into significantly more power since high school, but hadn't necessarily learned to use it. In Bleday's junior season in 2019, he very much figured it out, but Martin didn't quite had the same success, slashing .260/.352/.451 with eleven home runs and a 56/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. The Tampa native has added a ton of strength to his 6'3" frame and can really put a charge into a baseball, but in games he still employs that all fields, line drive approach. Unlike Bleday, who showed a keen eye at the plate and a knack for working counts and drawing walks, Martin was a bit more prone to swing and miss and whiffed at a 22.4% rate this year. He has shown a knack for finding the barrel in the past and did hit .317 with a .408 on-base percentage over his first two years at Florida State, so the Rockies are betting that his down 2021 was just a placeholder while he got ready for his breakout in pro ball. Hitting in an environment like Coors (plus hitter-friendly minor league parks like Fresno and Albuquerque) could provide that extra little push to get him lifting and turning on the ball consistently, hopefully without leading to more swing and miss. If he gets there, this could be a productive every day bat for the Rockies, though his outfield defense is just ordinary and he profiles in a corner with average speed. He signed for $200,000, which was $16,300 above slot value, and he's hitless through seven at bats in the ACL, though he has drawn two walks.

9-260: RHP Cullen Kafka, Oregon. My rank: #204.
Cullen Kafka drew some moderate interest in the 2020 draft and likely would have gone if the draft were full length, but he had never shown enough consistency to really fit in the top five rounds. He pulled it together this year and turned in by far his best performance with a 3.00 ERA and an 84/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, including starting the season by allowing just one run in his first four starts. Kafka has a low 90's fastball that gets up to about 96, adding a significantly improved slider that now profiles as above average. The 6'4" righty mainly pitches off those two and has improved his strike throwing to fringe-average, though he does tend to sail the ball at times. If Kafka wants to stick in a rotation long term, he's going to have to take a step forward with his fringy changeup as well as get that command up just a tick. The Bay Area native has an ideal pitcher's frame and gets down the mound well, but my guess is he's eventually pushed back to the bullpen with a bit of a high effort delivery. There, he can focus on the fastball and slider and worry less about pinpoint command. He signed right at slot value for $158,100.

18-530: RHP Bryce McGowan, Charlotte. My rank: #94.
The Rockies spent much of their unused bonus pool money here, hitting Bryce McGowan with sixth round money to get him into their system. McGowan brings a ton of upside, but will require some work. While the stuff has long intrigued scouts, he's never quite put it together at Charlotte, and this year was his best with a 4.84 ERA and a 99/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his power fastball and can reach back for 98-99 in short stints, and the pitch plays up because he gets great ride on it. His secondary pitches are trending up to catch his fastball, with a slider that is flashing plus at times as well as a changeup that flashes above average. It seems like the Raleigh-Durham native is slowly growing into his loud stuff, with command that has ticked up towards fringe-average, but he still hasn't quite learned to harness it and can be very inconsistent. His loose delivery does work well. Slightly undersized at a generous 6'1", he still has plenty of very interesting puzzle pieces that the Rockies will try to put together. If he can get a bit more consistent with those secondary pitches and show average command, he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter. McGowan signed for $300,000, of which $175,000 counts against the Rockies' bonus pool.