The Diamondbacks' farm system is vastly improved from where it was a few years ago, but it's still not deep. Headlined by the live armed Jon Duplantier, this system is built around a strong group of hitters that played at High A Visalia in 2018, though after a solid top ten or so the system drops off and is mostly comprised of fringe talent. They have placed an emphasis on bats in the draft recently, and that has replenished the lower end of the system. In terms of pitching, most of the talent is closer to the major leagues and aside from Jon Duplantier, there are no true high-ceiling pitching prospects.
Affiliates: AAA Reno Aces, AA Jackson Generals, High A Visalia Rawhide, Class A Kane County Cougars, Short Season Hillsboro Hops, Rookie level Missoula Osprey, complex level AZL and DSL Diamondbacks
The Headliner: RHP Jon Duplantier
24 year old Jon Duplantier was a third round pick (89th overall) out of Rice in 2016, and though he had shoulder concerns in college, he has been mostly healthy in the minors. The result so far is a 17-4 record, a 1.79 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 245/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 211 innings since he was drafted, and in 2018 he was 5-1 with a 2.55 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 77/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings, mostly at AA Jackson. He has shown the ability to shut down AA hitting with great stuff and good enough command to make it all work, and really his only question is health. Though he managed 136 innings in 2017, he missed some more time in 2018 and was shut down after 74 innings and he might end up as a right handed James Paxton type who struggles to stay on the mound. When healthy though, he looks like a future #2 starter who could be up in the majors by late 2019.
Visalia Bats: 2B Jazz Chisholm, 1B Pavin Smith, C Daulton Varsho, 3B Drew Ellis, and OF Marcus Wilson
It just so happened to work out that most of the top impact bats in the Arizona system all spent the bulk of their 2018 season at High A Visalia, which must have made for a fun lineup to watch out in California. Keep in mind that Visalia is a hitter-friendly venue when reading statistics in this section. 20 year old Jazz Chisholm, a Bahamas native, has the highest ceiling in this group. Chisholm spent 76 games down at Class A Kane County before being called up to Visalia for 36 games, combining for 25 home runs, a .272/.329/.513 slash line, 17 stolen bases, and a 149/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games. He's an explosive player with speed and power from a 5'11" frame, but he has to improve his plate discipline. That isn't a huge issue due to his age, so if he can shore up that strike zone a little bit, he could be a Rougned Odor-type second baseman in the majors. 22 year old Pavin Smith was probably the most notable hitter to appear for the Rawhide, though his season was somewhat disappointing as he finished with eleven home runs, a .255/.343/.392 line, and a 65/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games, all at Visalia. The seventh overall pick out of the University of Virginia in 2017, Smith showed the excellent plate discipline he was known for in college, but the power he was projected to have has not yet materialized. At 6'2" with long arms, evaluators still think there is power to tap into, but he risks becoming just a bench bat if he doesn't get to it, even with his excellent plate discipline. He looked like he could be a Joey Votto out of college, but now it looks more like Jake Bauers. 22 year old Daulton Varsho was drafted 61 picks after Smith, 68th overall, in 2017 out of college in Wisconsin. Over 83 games between Visalia and some rehab work in complex ball, Varsho slashed .294/.367/.475 with 12 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 72/30 strikeout to walk ratio. He has power and speed, and with the ability to catch, he might be the most interesting prospect in the system. Catching isn't a given for Varsho, as his arm is mediocre, but if he can stick behind the plate he could be a J.T. Realmuto-type catcher with all around abilities as a hitter. Keep an eye on him. 22 year old Drew Ellis, yet another 2017 draft pick out of college, was a second rounder (44th overall) out of Louisville who has been more of a Smith-like disappointment than a Varsho-like surprise. This year, Ellis slashed .246/.331/.429 with 15 home runs and a 98/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Visalia, putting up some solid numbers on the surface that look a little less impressive considering the hitter-friendly context of the California League. I liked Ellis on draft day (as I did with Varsho) because of his high-torque swing where he keeps his hands close to his body, kind of like Mike Trout, but he just didn't drive the ball enough in 2018 to set himself apart. I still like him and he could be a strong third baseman with power and on-base ability, but like Smith, he has to start hitting with more authority. Yet another 22 year old, outfielder Marcus Wilson, spent the year at Visalia and slashed .235/.309/.369 with ten home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 141/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games. He was much better at Class A Kane County in 2017 (.295/.383/.446, 9 HR, 15 SB), so his lack of offensive sock this year was a disappointment. His best tool is his speed, but with an average bat, he probably ends up a fourth outfielder at the major league level.
Other Bats: 2B Domingo Leyba, 1B Kevin Cron, OF Jake McCarthy, OF Alek Thomas, OF Kristian Robinson, C Andy Yerzy, SS Blaze Alexander, and SS Geraldo Perdomo
While the bulk of Arizona's relevant bats were down at High A, they had quite a few that were a little farther back and two that were just ahead. 23 year old Domingo Leyba and 25 year old Kevin Cron are the two most advanced bats in the Diamondbacks' system, though they're two very different prospects. Leyba played 2018 at AA Jacksonville and slashed .269/.344/.381 with five home runs and a 46/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 games, showing good plate discipline and bat to ball skills but not showing much power. With some respectable defense, he looks like he could be a serviceable utility man who can get on base at a reasonable rate. Cron, meanwhile, is a big power hitter out of TCU who slashed .309/.368/.554 with 22 home runs and a 100/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games at AAA Reno, though it's important to keep in mind that Reno is a hitter-friendly environment. The 6'5", 245 pound first baseman is blocked by Paul Goldschmidt in Arizona, but with 112 home runs over five minor league seasons, he could be a valuable pinch-hitter in the near term. However, in order for him to start in the majors, he'll need to walk more so that he is not just a one-dimensional player. 21 year old Jake McCarthy, the D-Backs' competitive balance pick (39th overall) out of the University of Virginia in 2018, was a nice get and I think he could out-play his draft position. McCarthy slashed .288/.375/.443 with three home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 41/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, mostly with Short Season Hillsboro, after signing. He's really a complete player with speed, defense, on-base ability, and some power, and I think he'll develop more power in the minors. He hasn't yet played in full season ball, but he could move quickly through the minors and while he looks more like a good fourth outfielder at this point, I think he has a good shot to be a starting center fielder and valuable leadoff man. Meanwhile, 18 year old Alek Thomas was taken 24 picks later at 63rd overall out of high school in Chicago, and he adjusted quickly to pro ball by slashing .333/.395/.463 with two home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games evenly split between complex ball and rookie level Missoula. He was known pre-draft as an advanced hitter for his age and it certainly showed, though I question his ceiling and see him more as a fourth outfielder than as a starter. He has great plate discipline, speed, and defense, but he doesn't hit for much power and his value will be tied to his on-base percentage if he can't add more. If he can maintain those high on-base percentages, though, he could be a leadoff hitter down the road. His teammate for much of the season, 17 year old Kristian Robinson, is another Bahamian who got off to a hot start for his pro career by slashing .279/.363/.428 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 67/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games between complex ball and Missoula. He's extremely young, turning 18 in December, and while he's a long, long way off, he could end up with a similar offensive toolset to Jazz Chisholm. Players like Robinson flame out all the time, but they're also the type that can yield tons of value down the road if they don't flame out. 20 year old catcher Andy Yerzy has been brought along slowly, hitting well along the way and slashing .297/.382/.452 with eight home runs and a 67/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at Hillsboro. The bat is potent, especially for a catcher, but he has to continue to work on his defense if he wants to stay behind the plate. He's a good enough hitter that he could still be valuable as a first baseman or an outfielder, but he could be a starting catcher if he can improve his defense. Obviously, we'll still need to see the bat at higher levels before considering him a true impact prospect. 19 year olds Blaze Alexander and Geraldo Perdomo are a couple of young shortstop prospects who will be competing as they move up through the minors. Alexander got off to a hot start to his pro career in 2018, slashing .329/.417/.538 with five home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 52/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games between complex ball and Missoula, while Perdomo hit .322/.438/.460 with four home runs, 24 stolen bases, an a 44/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games between complex ball, Missoula, and Hillsboro. Both are good defenders, with Perdomo more likely to stick at short and Alexander more likely to move to third base, and while Perdomo also appears to have a little more sock in his bat, they're about even offensively and the transition to full season ball will be telling.
The Pitchers: Taylor Widener, Taylor Clarke, Emilio Vargas, Matt Tabor, Matt Mercer, Yoan Lopez, and Alex Young
The Diamondbacks aren't very deep with pitching after Jon Duplantier, so I decided to lump the rest of the pitchers into one section. Of the rest, 24 year old Taylor Widener is clearly the best, showing pretty decent command of mid-rotation stuff and using it to hold down minor league hitters very effectively to this point. In 2018, the 6' righty put up a 2.75 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 176/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.1 innings at AA Jackson, missing bats with his mid-90's heater and his sharp slider. Right now, he looks good enough to at least cut it as a back-end starter with the upside of a mid-rotation starter, and how effectively he can deploy his decent changeup will be an important factor in his ultimate performance. There's a good chance he makes it to the majors in 2019. His main competition among prospects, aside from Duplantier, will be another Taylor, 25 year old Taylor Clarke. Clarke is a veteran of the upper minors who posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 125/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 152 innings at AAA Reno in 2018, a hitter-friendly context. While his stuff is generally average, Clarke commands his pitches well and can get outs by hitting his spots consistently. He will be tested in the majors, but he could be a #4 or #5 starter in 2019. 22 year old Emilio Vargas is slightly behind the two of them, but the 6'3" righty should not be overlooked. Over 26 games (25 starts) at High A Visalia and Jackson in 2018, Vargas posted a 2.88 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 170/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings. His stuff ticked up this year and he started missing more bats while throwing more strikes, and the result was a dominant run through the hitter-friendly California League followed by a successful AA debut. He still looks like a back-end starter, but 2018 gives hope that he could be more. Farther down on the farm, a couple of Matts have some high upside. 20 year old Matt Tabor posted a 3.26 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 46/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings at Short season Hillsboro, mainly living off his mid 90's fastball and good control, but he's young enough to continue developing those offspeed pitches and could look like Taylor Widener in a couple of years. 22 year old Matt Mercer, meanwhile, was just drafted in the fifth round of the 2018 draft out of Oregon and posted a 3.10 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 38/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings, mostly as Tabor's teammate at Hillsboro. It's a small sample size, but Mercer's low walk rate was a very welcome site after be battled command troubles in college, but he'll still need to refine his secondary pitches if he doesn't want to end up in the bullpen. I get a good feeling that pro coaching could make him a useable back-end starter, but the bullpen is a real possibility and he could be very good back there. Lastly, the Diamondbacks have a pair of notable relief-only prospects in 25 year olds Yoan Lopez and Alex Young. Lopez has had a very roundabout career, originally signing for a huge $8 million bonus in 2015 but struggling as a starter and briefly stepping away from the game in late 2016. He returned as a reliever in 2017 and has been lights out ever since, posting a 2.92 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an 87/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings with Jackson in 2018 before reaching the majors with success in a small sample size (3.00 ERA, 11/1 K/BB in 9 IP). He throws an MLB-ready fastball/slider combination, and while his control keeps him from being a closer, he could be a valuable reliever starting this season. Young has also spent his minor league career as a starter and there is still some chance he starts in the majors, but I see him more as a relief prospect after a mediocre 2018 (5.17 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 109/39 K/BB in 130.2 IP at Jackson and Reno). His stuff is fringy and could play up in the bullpen, and as a lefty he could be deployed strategically. Look for him as a potential long reliever.
Showing posts with label Pavin Smith. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pavin Smith. Show all posts
Monday, November 26, 2018
Monday, July 10, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks
First 5 rounds: Pavin Smith (1-7), Drew Ellis (2-44), Daulton Varsho (CBB-68), Matt Tabor (3-82), Harrison Francis (4-112), Buddy Kennedy (5-142)
Also notable: Brian Shaffer (6-172), Tarik Skubal (29-862), Boyd Vander Kooi (36-1072)
The Diamondbacks are one of three teams, along with the Marlins and Angels, in the bottom tier of farm systems. There is no impact talent heading towards Arizona, so they knew they needed to nail this draft. I wouldn't say they "nailed" it, but I do like a few of the players they picked up and the system is in a much better place now than it was before the draft. They didn't really play the over/under slot game, staying close to slot value with most of their picks.
1-7: 1B Pavin Smith (my rank: 10)
The Diamondbacks went with the we-can't-mess-this-pick-up pick, grabbing an advanced, powerful college bat from the University of Virginia. Smith was great as a sophomore (.329/.410/.513, 8 HR), but teams wanted him to step forward with his power if he wanted to maintain his draft stock, as he showed a flat, line drive oriented swing. He did exactly that in 2017, slashing .342/.427/.570 with 13 home runs, bumping up his isolated power from .184 to .228 while simultaneously slashing his strikeout rate from a low 8.4% to a minuscule 4.4% this year. He showed a willingness to turn on the ball and added loft while dropping his swing and miss percentage at the same time, which all bodes well to his full offensive skillset playing up. I did watch him play four games (three in Charlottesville against Duke, one in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech), and I never saw him go the other way, so the next step in his development will probably be maintaining the added loft and ability to turn on pitches while also using the whole field. Smith is limited to first base defensively, though I did see him rob a home run while playing left field in Blacksburg. He signed for just over $5 million, right at slot for the seventh pick.
2-44: 3B Drew Ellis (my rank: 53)
Ellis is another college performer as well as a late riser, slashing .355/.448/.701 with 20 home runs, actually out-hitting teammate Brendan McKay in the Cardinals lineup. Adding a 14% walk rate, he could put up Anthony Rendon-type numbers at the major league level, though he's not as slick a fielder. Ellis has an interesting swing, keeping his hands very close to his body in a fashion that actually reminds me of Mike Trout. He swings with a bit more of an uppercut and not the same elite bat speed (though his is very good), so don't expect a perennial MVP like Trout, but I like Ellis and I think he has a chance to be one of those guys that just hits and hits and hits all the way to the major leagues. Ellis signed for just over $1.5 million, at slot for the 44th pick.
CBB-68: C Daulton Varsho (my rank: 94)
I like Varsho, and at #94, I ranked him higher than MLB.com (#110) and Baseball America (#104), but the D-Backs apparently like him even more than I do. Varsho is a power hitting catcher who put up huge numbers (.362/.490/.643, 11 HR) for the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, albeit against weaker competition in the Horizon League. He has a short swing that still manages to produce above average power, and with a selective eye at the plate (19.2% walk rate against weak competition), I think his offensive game will translate up. Defensively, he is agile behind the plate, but he has a weak throwing arm that may be an issue. Overall, I see him as an average MLB caliber backstop, one who could hit 15-20 home runs per season while maintaining an on-base percentage close to .350, a la Russell Martin in his prime but downgraded defensively. Varsho signed for $880,100, at slot for the 68th pick.
3-82: RHP Matt Tabor (my rank: 79)
The first high schooler as well as the first arm drafted by Arizona this year, Tabor is a Massachusetts product who would theoretically have fewer miles on his arm. He throws in the low to mid 90's but can keep that fastball above 90 deep into his starts, and his average slider and above average changeup give him every chance to reach the majors as a starting pitcher. He has some mechanical inconsistencies to iron out, but he could be a #3 starter. Tabor signed for exactly $1 million, which is $312,800 above slot.
4-112: RHP Harrison Francis (unranked)
A prep pitcher out of Tallahassee, Francis is an extremely high risk pick who could emerge in a few years as one of the more electric arms in the system. Francis can hit the upper 90's with his running fastball, and he also shows the makings of a decent changeup and a below average curveball, but he has a very high-effort delivery and his command needs lots of work. He's a project, but if developed right, he could be one of the more exciting pitching prospects in baseball. Francis signed for $477,800, at slot for the 112th pick.
Others: 5th rounder Buddy Kennedy earned some pre-draft publicity because of his offseason workout partner, some guy named Mike Trout. Kennedy attends Trout's alma mater, Millville Senior High in New Jersey, showing a solid hitter's profile if without a high ceiling. He has that similar hands-in swing to Trout and Drew Ellis, showing solid bat speed and the ability to drive the ball. 6th rounder Brian Shaffer has served as Maryland's most consistent starter the past two seasons, combining to go 15-7 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, showing a good combination of present stuff and command from a 6'5" frame. He sits in the low 90's with a full arsenal and only walked 31 batters over the past two seasons, totaling 212 innings. 29th rounder and Arizona native Tarik Skubal hasn't pitched in a game since mid 2016, having gone down with Tommy John surgery, but the 6'2" lefty was downright dominant for the University of Seattle when he was on the mound (13-5, 2.86 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). He shows a low 90's fastball but needs to work on his offspeed pitches, and he hasn't signed yet and appears unlikely to do so in the 29th round. 36th rounder and fellow Arizona native Boyd Vander Kooi challenges Skubal in the exotic name category, and while he comes up a bit short there, he stands 6'5" and throws anywhere from 85 to 93 MPH. He probably won't sign in the 36th round, and he'll be a two-way player at Arizona State. If he can put it together and refine his average breaking ball in Tempe, he could emerge as a better prospect for the 2020 draft.
Also notable: Brian Shaffer (6-172), Tarik Skubal (29-862), Boyd Vander Kooi (36-1072)
The Diamondbacks are one of three teams, along with the Marlins and Angels, in the bottom tier of farm systems. There is no impact talent heading towards Arizona, so they knew they needed to nail this draft. I wouldn't say they "nailed" it, but I do like a few of the players they picked up and the system is in a much better place now than it was before the draft. They didn't really play the over/under slot game, staying close to slot value with most of their picks.
1-7: 1B Pavin Smith (my rank: 10)
The Diamondbacks went with the we-can't-mess-this-pick-up pick, grabbing an advanced, powerful college bat from the University of Virginia. Smith was great as a sophomore (.329/.410/.513, 8 HR), but teams wanted him to step forward with his power if he wanted to maintain his draft stock, as he showed a flat, line drive oriented swing. He did exactly that in 2017, slashing .342/.427/.570 with 13 home runs, bumping up his isolated power from .184 to .228 while simultaneously slashing his strikeout rate from a low 8.4% to a minuscule 4.4% this year. He showed a willingness to turn on the ball and added loft while dropping his swing and miss percentage at the same time, which all bodes well to his full offensive skillset playing up. I did watch him play four games (three in Charlottesville against Duke, one in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech), and I never saw him go the other way, so the next step in his development will probably be maintaining the added loft and ability to turn on pitches while also using the whole field. Smith is limited to first base defensively, though I did see him rob a home run while playing left field in Blacksburg. He signed for just over $5 million, right at slot for the seventh pick.
2-44: 3B Drew Ellis (my rank: 53)
Ellis is another college performer as well as a late riser, slashing .355/.448/.701 with 20 home runs, actually out-hitting teammate Brendan McKay in the Cardinals lineup. Adding a 14% walk rate, he could put up Anthony Rendon-type numbers at the major league level, though he's not as slick a fielder. Ellis has an interesting swing, keeping his hands very close to his body in a fashion that actually reminds me of Mike Trout. He swings with a bit more of an uppercut and not the same elite bat speed (though his is very good), so don't expect a perennial MVP like Trout, but I like Ellis and I think he has a chance to be one of those guys that just hits and hits and hits all the way to the major leagues. Ellis signed for just over $1.5 million, at slot for the 44th pick.
CBB-68: C Daulton Varsho (my rank: 94)
I like Varsho, and at #94, I ranked him higher than MLB.com (#110) and Baseball America (#104), but the D-Backs apparently like him even more than I do. Varsho is a power hitting catcher who put up huge numbers (.362/.490/.643, 11 HR) for the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, albeit against weaker competition in the Horizon League. He has a short swing that still manages to produce above average power, and with a selective eye at the plate (19.2% walk rate against weak competition), I think his offensive game will translate up. Defensively, he is agile behind the plate, but he has a weak throwing arm that may be an issue. Overall, I see him as an average MLB caliber backstop, one who could hit 15-20 home runs per season while maintaining an on-base percentage close to .350, a la Russell Martin in his prime but downgraded defensively. Varsho signed for $880,100, at slot for the 68th pick.
3-82: RHP Matt Tabor (my rank: 79)
The first high schooler as well as the first arm drafted by Arizona this year, Tabor is a Massachusetts product who would theoretically have fewer miles on his arm. He throws in the low to mid 90's but can keep that fastball above 90 deep into his starts, and his average slider and above average changeup give him every chance to reach the majors as a starting pitcher. He has some mechanical inconsistencies to iron out, but he could be a #3 starter. Tabor signed for exactly $1 million, which is $312,800 above slot.
4-112: RHP Harrison Francis (unranked)
A prep pitcher out of Tallahassee, Francis is an extremely high risk pick who could emerge in a few years as one of the more electric arms in the system. Francis can hit the upper 90's with his running fastball, and he also shows the makings of a decent changeup and a below average curveball, but he has a very high-effort delivery and his command needs lots of work. He's a project, but if developed right, he could be one of the more exciting pitching prospects in baseball. Francis signed for $477,800, at slot for the 112th pick.
Others: 5th rounder Buddy Kennedy earned some pre-draft publicity because of his offseason workout partner, some guy named Mike Trout. Kennedy attends Trout's alma mater, Millville Senior High in New Jersey, showing a solid hitter's profile if without a high ceiling. He has that similar hands-in swing to Trout and Drew Ellis, showing solid bat speed and the ability to drive the ball. 6th rounder Brian Shaffer has served as Maryland's most consistent starter the past two seasons, combining to go 15-7 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, showing a good combination of present stuff and command from a 6'5" frame. He sits in the low 90's with a full arsenal and only walked 31 batters over the past two seasons, totaling 212 innings. 29th rounder and Arizona native Tarik Skubal hasn't pitched in a game since mid 2016, having gone down with Tommy John surgery, but the 6'2" lefty was downright dominant for the University of Seattle when he was on the mound (13-5, 2.86 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). He shows a low 90's fastball but needs to work on his offspeed pitches, and he hasn't signed yet and appears unlikely to do so in the 29th round. 36th rounder and fellow Arizona native Boyd Vander Kooi challenges Skubal in the exotic name category, and while he comes up a bit short there, he stands 6'5" and throws anywhere from 85 to 93 MPH. He probably won't sign in the 36th round, and he'll be a two-way player at Arizona State. If he can put it together and refine his average breaking ball in Tempe, he could emerge as a better prospect for the 2020 draft.
Saturday, June 10, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: College Power Hitters
First Tier: Brendan McKay, Adam Haseley, Pavin Smith, Jeren Kendall
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
Saturday, April 15, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Pavin Smith
1B Pavin Smith (University of Virginia): 6'2", 210 lbs, born 2/6/1996
Overview
Hit: 55. Power: 55. Field: 55. Throw: 50. Run: 35.
Pavin Smith entered the season as a potential first round pick, and he has exceeded expectations this spring. One of the best (if not the best) pure hitters in his draft class, Smith right now has a chance to be drafted in the top ten picks, projecting as a player similar to Adam LaRoche. Let's break down the UVA first baseman.
Strengths
Smith has a hitters' frame at a listed 6'2", 210 pounds from the left side, with long levers to generate plenty of power. Speaking of power, he has shifted his approach this season from more of a contact/line drive approach to a power one, as he is turning on more pitches this year and trying to use his considerable raw power to his advantage. Like most UVA hitters, he is a very polished hitter as well, as his 5/19 strikeout to walk rate (2.9% to 11.2%) so far this season (April 15th) emphasizes. Often, when a player has a big power jump, other components of his hitting suffer. The fact that Pavin has been able to support his big jump in power with better plate discipline and a continued ability to get on base bode very well for his future offensive development. He is also an athletic, slick fielding first baseman, so he's no defensive liability. When I got the chance to watch him play against Virginia Tech, he even robbed a home run while playing left field.
Weaknesses
I watched him play parts of four games (one against Duke, parts of three against Virginia Tech), and not once have I seen him do anything but pull the ball. He was out in front of a lot of pitches, causing him to yank more than a couple sharp line drives and ground balls well foul down the first base line. Combined with the fact that he has worked more on pulling the ball, this makes Smith (at this point) an extreme pull hitter. It is most likely something that can be fixed, but it is something to be mindful of. Smith is also a very slow runner, but with the offensive package he provides, that is okay.
Overview
Hit: 55. Power: 55. Field: 55. Throw: 50. Run: 35.
Pavin Smith entered the season as a potential first round pick, and he has exceeded expectations this spring. One of the best (if not the best) pure hitters in his draft class, Smith right now has a chance to be drafted in the top ten picks, projecting as a player similar to Adam LaRoche. Let's break down the UVA first baseman.
Strengths
Smith has a hitters' frame at a listed 6'2", 210 pounds from the left side, with long levers to generate plenty of power. Speaking of power, he has shifted his approach this season from more of a contact/line drive approach to a power one, as he is turning on more pitches this year and trying to use his considerable raw power to his advantage. Like most UVA hitters, he is a very polished hitter as well, as his 5/19 strikeout to walk rate (2.9% to 11.2%) so far this season (April 15th) emphasizes. Often, when a player has a big power jump, other components of his hitting suffer. The fact that Pavin has been able to support his big jump in power with better plate discipline and a continued ability to get on base bode very well for his future offensive development. He is also an athletic, slick fielding first baseman, so he's no defensive liability. When I got the chance to watch him play against Virginia Tech, he even robbed a home run while playing left field.
Weaknesses
I watched him play parts of four games (one against Duke, parts of three against Virginia Tech), and not once have I seen him do anything but pull the ball. He was out in front of a lot of pitches, causing him to yank more than a couple sharp line drives and ground balls well foul down the first base line. Combined with the fact that he has worked more on pulling the ball, this makes Smith (at this point) an extreme pull hitter. It is most likely something that can be fixed, but it is something to be mindful of. Smith is also a very slow runner, but with the offensive package he provides, that is okay.
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