First 5 rounds: Pavin Smith (1-7), Drew Ellis (2-44), Daulton Varsho (CBB-68), Matt Tabor (3-82), Harrison Francis (4-112), Buddy Kennedy (5-142)
Also notable: Brian Shaffer (6-172), Tarik Skubal (29-862), Boyd Vander Kooi (36-1072)
The Diamondbacks are one of three teams, along with the Marlins and Angels, in the bottom tier of farm systems. There is no impact talent heading towards Arizona, so they knew they needed to nail this draft. I wouldn't say they "nailed" it, but I do like a few of the players they picked up and the system is in a much better place now than it was before the draft. They didn't really play the over/under slot game, staying close to slot value with most of their picks.
1-7: 1B Pavin Smith (my rank: 10)
The Diamondbacks went with the we-can't-mess-this-pick-up pick, grabbing an advanced, powerful college bat from the University of Virginia. Smith was great as a sophomore (.329/.410/.513, 8 HR), but teams wanted him to step forward with his power if he wanted to maintain his draft stock, as he showed a flat, line drive oriented swing. He did exactly that in 2017, slashing .342/.427/.570 with 13 home runs, bumping up his isolated power from .184 to .228 while simultaneously slashing his strikeout rate from a low 8.4% to a minuscule 4.4% this year. He showed a willingness to turn on the ball and added loft while dropping his swing and miss percentage at the same time, which all bodes well to his full offensive skillset playing up. I did watch him play four games (three in Charlottesville against Duke, one in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech), and I never saw him go the other way, so the next step in his development will probably be maintaining the added loft and ability to turn on pitches while also using the whole field. Smith is limited to first base defensively, though I did see him rob a home run while playing left field in Blacksburg. He signed for just over $5 million, right at slot for the seventh pick.
2-44: 3B Drew Ellis (my rank: 53)
Ellis is another college performer as well as a late riser, slashing .355/.448/.701 with 20 home runs, actually out-hitting teammate Brendan McKay in the Cardinals lineup. Adding a 14% walk rate, he could put up Anthony Rendon-type numbers at the major league level, though he's not as slick a fielder. Ellis has an interesting swing, keeping his hands very close to his body in a fashion that actually reminds me of Mike Trout. He swings with a bit more of an uppercut and not the same elite bat speed (though his is very good), so don't expect a perennial MVP like Trout, but I like Ellis and I think he has a chance to be one of those guys that just hits and hits and hits all the way to the major leagues. Ellis signed for just over $1.5 million, at slot for the 44th pick.
CBB-68: C Daulton Varsho (my rank: 94)
I like Varsho, and at #94, I ranked him higher than MLB.com (#110) and Baseball America (#104), but the D-Backs apparently like him even more than I do. Varsho is a power hitting catcher who put up huge numbers (.362/.490/.643, 11 HR) for the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, albeit against weaker competition in the Horizon League. He has a short swing that still manages to produce above average power, and with a selective eye at the plate (19.2% walk rate against weak competition), I think his offensive game will translate up. Defensively, he is agile behind the plate, but he has a weak throwing arm that may be an issue. Overall, I see him as an average MLB caliber backstop, one who could hit 15-20 home runs per season while maintaining an on-base percentage close to .350, a la Russell Martin in his prime but downgraded defensively. Varsho signed for $880,100, at slot for the 68th pick.
3-82: RHP Matt Tabor (my rank: 79)
The first high schooler as well as the first arm drafted by Arizona this year, Tabor is a Massachusetts product who would theoretically have fewer miles on his arm. He throws in the low to mid 90's but can keep that fastball above 90 deep into his starts, and his average slider and above average changeup give him every chance to reach the majors as a starting pitcher. He has some mechanical inconsistencies to iron out, but he could be a #3 starter. Tabor signed for exactly $1 million, which is $312,800 above slot.
4-112: RHP Harrison Francis (unranked)
A prep pitcher out of Tallahassee, Francis is an extremely high risk pick who could emerge in a few years as one of the more electric arms in the system. Francis can hit the upper 90's with his running fastball, and he also shows the makings of a decent changeup and a below average curveball, but he has a very high-effort delivery and his command needs lots of work. He's a project, but if developed right, he could be one of the more exciting pitching prospects in baseball. Francis signed for $477,800, at slot for the 112th pick.
Others: 5th rounder Buddy Kennedy earned some pre-draft publicity because of his offseason workout partner, some guy named Mike Trout. Kennedy attends Trout's alma mater, Millville Senior High in New Jersey, showing a solid hitter's profile if without a high ceiling. He has that similar hands-in swing to Trout and Drew Ellis, showing solid bat speed and the ability to drive the ball. 6th rounder Brian Shaffer has served as Maryland's most consistent starter the past two seasons, combining to go 15-7 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, showing a good combination of present stuff and command from a 6'5" frame. He sits in the low 90's with a full arsenal and only walked 31 batters over the past two seasons, totaling 212 innings. 29th rounder and Arizona native Tarik Skubal hasn't pitched in a game since mid 2016, having gone down with Tommy John surgery, but the 6'2" lefty was downright dominant for the University of Seattle when he was on the mound (13-5, 2.86 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). He shows a low 90's fastball but needs to work on his offspeed pitches, and he hasn't signed yet and appears unlikely to do so in the 29th round. 36th rounder and fellow Arizona native Boyd Vander Kooi challenges Skubal in the exotic name category, and while he comes up a bit short there, he stands 6'5" and throws anywhere from 85 to 93 MPH. He probably won't sign in the 36th round, and he'll be a two-way player at Arizona State. If he can put it together and refine his average breaking ball in Tempe, he could emerge as a better prospect for the 2020 draft.
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