Monday, July 31, 2017

Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to Cubs to Kick Off Deadline Day

Cubs Get: Justin Wilson (3-4, 2.68 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 13 SV, 55/16 K/BB, Age 29)
Alex Avila (11 HR, 32 RBI, .274 AVG, 0 SB, 133 wRC+, Age 30)
Tigers Get: Jeimer Candelario (1 HR, 3 RBI, .152 AVG, 0 SB, 36 wRC+, Age 23)
Isaac Paredes (7 HR, 49 RBI, .264 AVG, 2 SB, 112 wRC+ at Class A, Age 18)
A player to be named later or cash

The Cubs have underperformed this season, but they've been hot lately, and at 56-48, they're back in first place in the NL Central. On paper, they're still extremely strong (think Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Heyward on offense, Lester, Arrieta, Quintana, Hendricks in rotation), but the bullpen has been more good than excellent for them this year. Wade Davis has been good as closer (2.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), and Pedro Strop (2.52 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), Carl Edwards Jr. (2.51 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), and Koji Uehara (3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) have been good behind him, but Brian Duensing (2.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) has been their only consistent lefty in the bullpen. So, they acquired lefty Justin Wilson, who is in the middle of a career year in Detroit (2.68 ERA, 0.94 WHIP). He's struck out 35% of the batters he's faced this year, including 43.2% of lefties, and he'll be a perfect fit for the Cubbies as they look to repeat as World Series Champions. Wilson isn't a rental, either, as he has one more year of arbitration and is therefore controllable through 2018. For his career, he has quietly been very good, going 21-14 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 313 and walking 114 in 298.1 innings. Also going to Chicago is catcher Alex Avila, who, aside from 57 games with the White Sox in 2016, has played his entire career for the Tigers. Mainly a backup catcher after his huge 2011 season (.295/.389/.506, 19 HR, 140 wRC+), he has had a big bounce back season in 2017, slashing .274/.394/.475 with 17 home runs and a 133 wRC+, accumulating 1.9 fWAR when you add in his solid defense. The Cubs' current catcher, Willson Contreras, has been good this year (.269/.340/.485, 16 HR), but Victor Caratini will need to go back to the minors to make room for Avila. Avila is a free agent after the season, and he has 84 career home runs to go along with a .243/.350/.402 slash line.

The main return to Detroit for its ninth inning battery is Jeimer Candelario, the top Cubs prospect left after the graduations of Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and Javier Baez, as well as the trades of Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Eloy Jimenez, and Dylan Cease. Candelario, a third baseman, has hit well at AAA Iowa this year (.266/.361/.507, 12 HR), but he's blocked by you know who in Chicago and never really had a clear future in Chicago. He'll be a better fit in Detroit, though he'll still be blocked by Nick Castellanos. He's a very polished hitter who could put up above average numbers at the major league level in the near future, and at worst he should be a solid bench bat in Detroit starting this season. If it weren't for Kris Bryant, he'd be a major leaguer right now, and hopefully a change of scenery will do the 23 year old good. He has played in 16 major league games over the past two seasons, but without regular playing time, he hasn't been able to find his groove, slashing just .136/.240/.250 with one home run in 50 plate appearances. Isaac Paredes, who just turned 18 in February, is in only his second pro season, but he has played well at Class A South Bend against older competition this year. Through 92 games, he is slashing .264/.343/.401 with seven home runs and 25 doubles, and while those might not be eye-popping numbers, they're very credible for a player of his age and experience. A shortstop right now, he may have to move to second base or third base in the future, but being able to stick in the infield takes pressure off his bat. He's a long way off, but he could be a productive infielder in Detroit next to Candelario in a few years.

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