Monday, July 31, 2017

Yankees Make Splash, Add Sonny Gray

Yankees Get: Sonny Gray (6-5, 3.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 94/30 K/BB, Age 27)
International bonus pool money
A's Get: Dustin Fowler (13 HR, 43 RBI, .293 AVG, 13 SB, 137 wRC+ at AAA, Age 22)
Jorge Mateo (8 HR, 37 RBI, .258 AVG, 39 SB, 114 wRC+ at High Class A and AA, Age 22)
James Kaprielian (out for season, Age 23)

This could be one of the biggest trades of the deadline when it's all said and done. Not long after adding Jaime Garcia to the rotation, the Bombers added Sonny Gray, who is in the middle of a big comeback season with the A's. A year after going 5-11 with a 5.69 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 22 starts, he's 6-5 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 18 starts, almost back to his ace-like 2014-2015 level. Among Yankees starters, only Luis Severino has put up better numbers than Gray, so his impact will be huge. Making this even sweeter for the Yankees is the fact that Gray still has two years of arbitration left, meaning he's under team control through 2019. Considering the fairly stacked rotation of Severino, C.C. Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Jordan Montgomery, and Garcia, the Yankees didn't necessarily need another starter, but a guy like Gray makes an impact no matter how good your rotation is. As of now, it looks like rookie Jordan Montgomery will be the odd man out despite a solid season (4.15 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), as he has already thrown 110.2 innings this year and his career high is 139.1 in the minors. For his career, Gray is 44-36 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

The A's got three high ceiling prospects for Gray, with Dustin Fowler being the closest to making an impact. Fowler would have actually spent a good portion of the season as the Yankees' starting right fielder had he not crashed into a wall in the first inning of his debut and gotten season ending surgery. Still, he had a great year at AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre (.293/.329/.542, 13 HR), and he'll be just 23 at the start of 2018, where he could break camp as a starter for the A's and is an early candidate for AL Rookie of the Year. The power-speed-defense combination will make him a valuable player for Oakland in the near future, though his one major flaw is his low walk rate (4.5% career in minors, 4.8% this year). He'll never be an effective leadoff man if he can't push his OBP over .320, but some increased patience could go a long way for the young outfielder. Jorge Mateo has an even wider gap between his ceiling and floor than Fowler, showcasing plus-plus speed and solid all around tools otherwise. After stealing 82 bases for Class A Charleston and High Class A Tampa in 2015, some of the prospect sheen wore off after a tough 2016 at Tampa that also included a two week suspension for insubordination. Back at Tampa again in 2017, he slashed a mediocre .240/.288/.400 with four home runs and 28 stolen bases in 69 games in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, but he's actually been much better since a promotion to AA Trenton. Over 30 games in the Eastern League, Mateo is slashing .300/.381/.525 with four home runs and 11 stolen bases, perhaps re-establishing himself as a top prospect. He might not be in the majors until late 2018 or 2019 at the earliest, but he just turned 22 in June and he has time to develop into a valuable middle infielder. Lastly, James Kaprielian is sitting out the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, so other Yankees pitching prospects such as Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, and Domingo Acevedo had a chance to move ahead of him on prospect depth charts. A first rounder out of UCLA in 2015, he was supposed to be a low-ceiling, quick to the big leagues, back-end starter who carried little risk. However, he's thrown just 29.1 pro innings, though he's been very effective with a 2.45 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 36/7 strikeout to walk ratio. Once he's healthy in 2018, he could move through the minors quickly and help the A's rotation as soon as 2019.

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