Tuesday, July 4, 2017

2017 Draft Review: Washington Nationals

First 5 rounds: Seth Romero (1-25), Wil Crowe (2-65), Nick Raquet (3-103), Cole Freeman (4-133), Brigham Hill (5-163)
Also notable: Kyle Johnston (6-193), Jackson Tetreault (7-223), Alex Troop (9-283), Bryce Montes de Oca (15-463)

If you took one look at the Nationals' early draft, you'd think they needed relief help badly. Oh yeah. So the Nationals have a great team, with their big bats and great starting pitching leading the team to success, but their terrible bullpen seems like it is trying to blow every lead they can. So, the Nationals went into this draft with a very clear strategy: find someone who can join the bullpen by September. With this in mind, they took nine college pitchers in the first ten rounds, then grabbed college pitchers again in the 12th, 15th, 17th, 20th, 21st, you get it. In all, they came away with 19 college pitchers in 40 rounds, with the hope that at least one of them is ready for a playoff run.

1-25: LHP Seth Romero (my rank: 30)
My ranking of Romero is a bit arbitrary because there are no questions about his ability on the field, just his maturity off of it, and that can only be measured by talking to him in person, which I haven't done. On talent alone, Romero might have been a top ten pick, and this pick could be a steal for the Nationals. That said, Romero has been suspended from the University of Houston baseball team twice and was subsequently kicked off the team, so we don't really know what we're getting. When he's on the mound, he's straight up dominant. Over three years with the Cougars, Romero went 17-13 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 290 batters in 226.1 innings. His swing and miss stuff includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a power slider that can be plus at times, and a solid changeup. He commands it all well, and when he's keeping up with his conditioning, he has a durable starter's build. If he didn't have the maturity question marks, he'd be a safe bet to start in the majors, and he still is a starter for the Nationals long term in the most likely scenario. However, like everybody else in this draft class, there is a chance the Nationals pull a David Price with Romero and convert him to a lefty reliever this year, fast track him to the majors by the September, and convert him back to a starter afterwards. However, he hasn't signed yet, and I haven't been able to find anything on whether he will or not. The Nationals only have $2,000 left in their bonus pool to go over slot with Romero and 15th rounder Bryce Montes de Oca, but if they end up going underslot on Romero, they could use that money to grab Montes de Oca.

2-65: RHP Wil Crowe (my rank: 45)
The Nationals were very happy that Crowe fell to them here, and who can blame them? Even though he comes with a few question marks, Crowe has flashed the potential to be a workhorse starter at the major league level, and his solid three year career at South Carolina backs that up (17-12, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 208 K's in 235.1 IP). He throws a low to mid 90's sinker and backs it up with a pair of solid breaking balls, as well as a progressing changeup. It's a classic starter's profile coming from a 6'2", 250 pound frame, but he did miss all of 2016 with Tommy John surgery, and he seemed to get fatigued down the stretch this year. He'll also be 23 in September. He's less likely to crack the bullpen by September, but he could be fast tracked as a starter beginning with next spring. Crowe signed for $946,500, exactly slot value.

3-103: LHP Nick Raquet (unranked)
Raquet is a prime example of a player who might be fast tracked to the big league bullpen this year. He didn't put up great numbers as a starter at William & Mary this year (2-2, 4.66 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 95/45 K/BB), but a conversion to the bullpen could do him wonders. I got the chance to watch him pitch in March, where he showcased a low to mid 90's fastball as a starter with a very good curveball and a sinking changeup. However, as the game progressed, the stuff gradually backed up, but I think all three pitches have plus potential if used in short bursts, you know, as a reliever. He has a high effort delivery and struggles with his command when he tries to overthrow, but when confined to a bullpen role, he could be a late-inning reliever, and soon. Raquet signed for $475,000, which is $47,300 below slot.

4-133: 2B Cole Freeman (unranked)
Freeman is a 5'9" infielder who played second base for LSU the past two seasons. He wasn't spectacular, but he slashed .321/.421/.403 over his two seasons showing an ability to get on base and avoid strikeouts (7.8% K-rate). His very short swing won't bring much power, but he can work his way up through the system as a utility man with a ceiling of Wilmer Difo with less athleticism, but a high floor with a good chance to get to the majors at least in that reserve role. Freeman signed for $340,000, which is $50,000 below slot.

5-163: RHP Brigham Hill (unranked)
Back to the pitchers, Brigham Hill has been a big part of the Texas A&M rotation the past two seasons, going 17-5 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, striking out 210 and walking 59 in 197 innings. He's a bit similar to a right handed Oliver Jaskie, coming in at 5'10" with a low 90's sinker and a plus changeup, though his curveball is below average at this point. He's another guy that the Nationals will try to fast track as a reliever, and he has a good chance to be the guy to make it to the bigs due to his competitive nature on the mound and advanced pitchability. Hill signed for $291,200, which is slot value for the 163rd pick.

6-193: RHP Kyle Johnston (unranked)
Another college starter who will be converted to a reliever, though his results haven't quite matched the stuff yet. Mostly as a starter at Texas this year, he went 3-2 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, striking out 52 in 73.1 innings. As a reliever, he can run his fastball into the mid 90's, and his cutter/slider could be a plus pitch in the majors. However, he still struggles with command, and if anything keeps him from making it to the majors, that's what it will be. He signed an at-slot deal of $226,100.

15-463: RHP Bryce Montes de Oca (my rank: 90)
Montes de Oca will be a steal in the 15th round if the Nationals can sign him, which hasn't happened yet. The gigantic 6'7", 265 pound right hander runs his fastball into the upper 90's and he has a solid curveball that will play up in relief. The upside is that of a big league closer, but he also carries tremendous risk for a college pitcher. Montes de Oca has struggled to stay healthy, missing his junior year of high school with Tommy John and much of his sophomore year at Missouri with nerve surgery on his elbow. In all, he had thrown just 8.1 collegiate innings coming into this season, but he was healthy enough to throw 61 this year, going 4-5 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, striking out 61 but walking 42 over 15 games (12 starts). He'll be converted to relief with the Nationals if he signs, where his big fastball could get him through the minors quickly if he can stay healthy and improve on his terrible command. The Nationals only have $2,000 left in their bonus pool and would likely have to sign Romero to an underslot deal to be able to afford Montes de Oca.

Others: 7th rounder Jackson Tetreault is a JuCo righty from Florida, though I can't seem to find any public video on him. He's a projectable 6'5", running his fastball into the mid 90's and showing good secondaries, though he has trouble locating his stuff. He has a high ceiling for the 7th round and signed $121,900 over slot. 8th rounder Jared Brasher comes from Samford, where he was converted to relief this year and put up a 3.74 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 22 appearances, striking out 46 but walking 30 in 33.2 innings. As you can tell from the stats, he throws very hard, running his fastball into the upper 90's, and his mid to upper 80's slider can be a swing and miss pitch as well. The only problem is he has no idea where his pitches are going, and he's walked 85 batters in 86 innings over the past two seasons. If the Nationals can clean up his command, he could be a bullpen arm soon. 9th rounder Alex Troop was a two-way player at Michigan State, but after he went 8-3 with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 14 starts, the Nationals popped him as a left handed pitcher. He throws his fastball in the upper 80's with a straight over the top delivery, and like Brigham Hill, he has a very good changeup. However, unlike Hill, Troop is 6'5" and left handed, which means the Nationals could unlock some potential if they develop him right. 18th rounder Nick Choruby is a future fourth or fifth outfielder due to his lack of power, but he did slash .321/.441/.415 for Texas A&M this year, and he has enough speed to stick in center field. An advanced hitter, he walked in 16% of his plate appearances this year, and he has 24 stolen bases over the past two seasons for the Aggies despite a hip flexor injury that slowed him down. 20th rounder Jake Cousins is the cousin of Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins, and Jake is coming off a successful four year career at Penn where he went 20-7 with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 38 games (31 starts), striking out 158 in 197.2 innings.

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