2020 Awards Picks: MVP's and Cy Young's

If I were given a vote, below would be my picks for the AL and NL MVP and Cy Young Awards.

AL MVP: RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 8-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 122/21 K/BB in 77.1 IP.
I think most people would prefer to choose a hitter as an MVP, but in a year in which not one American League hitter put up a 1.000 OPS while staying healthy for the whole two months, the door was opened for Shane Bieber and his unbelievable season. With all due respect to strong seasons from Jose Ramirez, DJ LeMahieu, Jose Abreu, and of course Mike Trout, it's a pretty easy pick for me to choose Bieber. Bieber led all AL pitchers in wins, ERA, and strikeouts and had the second best WHIP, and he did so with the second most innings in the league. With Francisco Lindor stumbling to a .258/.335/.415 slash line, the Indians really struggled to score runs with a lineup that saw only Ramirez break even an .800 OPS. The Tribe could not afford bad starts this year, and Bieber went at least five innings and allowed no more than three runs in each of his twelve starts. In fact, he allowed zero or one earned runs in seven of his twelve starts, putting even a futile Cleveland offense in position to win every single time he took the mound. And without his contributions, they would have been no better than a seven or eight seed, rather than the four seed they ended up with. The crowning achievement of his season likely came in just his second start, when he limited the eventual AL Central champion Twins to three baserunners over eight shutout innings while striking out thirteen.

Runner-Up: 3B Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 17 HR, .292/.386/.607, 10 SB, 163 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR in 58 games.
Behind Shane Bieber, the AL MVP race is pretty jumbled, with five players finishing with an OPS between .987 and 1.011, none of which were particularly standout defenders. Jose Ramirez didn't actually lead the league in anything besides his 3.4 fWAR and 45 runs scored, but instead, was simply Very Good in lots of areas. He finished second in OPS (.993), third in home runs (17), doubles (16), RBI (46), and slugging percentage (.607), fifth in wRC+ (163) and stolen bases (10), and sixth in on-base percentage (.386). On an Indians team that absolutely could not hit, he was the only player with above an .800 OPS and essentially carried the entire offense. Bieber shut down the AL and NL Central divisions on his own, but when he wasn't on the mound, Ramirez was often tasked with single-handedly keeping pace with the Twins, White Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals offenses. His numbers need a slight asterisk because he wasn't facing the most difficult schedule in the Central division, but with good defense and baserunning ability that could not be matched by anybody in his realm of the MVP range, in addition to playing in all but two of the Indians' games, he still gets the edge.

Honorable Mention: OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 17 HR, .281/.390/.603, 1 SB, 164 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR in 53 games.
If Mike Trout hadn't missed a few games for the birth of his son, I think he would clearly have the third spot, but at this point it's so close that I wouldn't argue with DJ LeMahieu, Jose Abreu, or even Anthony Rendon in this spot. Trout gets the slight edge because even though he only played in 53 games (T-45th in the AL), he still collected 241 plate appearances that had him tied for 15th in the league. Throw in 17 home runs and nearly a .400 on-base percentage, and you're pretty darn close to an MVP, never mind that his .993 OPS was actually below his 1.000 career OPS. Even in what wasn't his best season (and missing a few games), the best player in the world finished third in the league in home runs (17), RBI (46), and wRC+ (164), fourth in on-base percentage (.390), slugging (.603), and runs scored (41), and fifth in fWAR (2.6). He and guys like Rendon, Dylan Bundy, and David Fletcher did all they could to keep the Angels in the playoff hunt, but their extreme lack of depth cost them as they stumbled to a 26-34 record, three games out of a postseason spot.

Others: 2B DJ LeMahieu (NYY, 2.7 fWAR), 1B Jose Abreu (CWS, 2.7 fWAR), 3B Anthony Rendon (LAA, 2.8 fWAR), Kenta Maeda (MIN, 2.70 ERA), Gerrit Cole (NYY, 2.84 ERA)

NL MVP: 1B Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 13 HR, .341/.462/.640, 2 SB, 187 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR in 60 games.
To me, it's very very close between Freeman and Fernando Tatis, but Freeman just barely gets the edge because of his absolute dominance at the plate. The Braves' rotation was decimated by injuries and other problems in 2020, throwing their status as the NL's consensus second best team in doubt. But Freeman, combined with Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuña, made sure that runs were never really an issue and that they could win any slugfest. Freeman in particular was a one man wrecking crew, and if not for Juan Soto, his monster .341/.462/.640 slash line would have led the NL in each category. Not only that, but Freeman was one of just seven NL players to appear in all sixty games, and his 262 plate appearances put him third in the league. He hit in August (.330/.440/.582) and he hit in September (.375/.496/.750), not just bursting out with a couple weeks of excellence but maintaining it all season long. Aside from Soto and his 200 wRC+, no National League player has topped Freeman's 187 since Bryce Harper's 197 in 2015, and before that, not since Barry Bonds' 233 in 2004.

Runner-up: SS Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Stat line: 17 HR, .277/.366/.571, 11 SB, 149 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR in 59 games.
I wanted to give this award to Tatis, I really did, and I would have strongly considered him ahead of Shane Bieber if he were in the AL. Even though he hit just .164/.242/.291 over his last 16 games, which is more than a quarter of the season, what he did in his first 43 games was unparalleled anywhere in either league. As of September 7th, before the slump started, he was hitting .314/.405/.663 with a league leading 15 home runs, but his value went beyond that. Tatis was one of the best defenders in baseball by multiple different measures, and with eleven stolen bases, he even finished fourth in the NL in that category. He energized the Padres' players, organization, and socially distant fanbase in a way that no other player did in 2020, and for that reason I believe his value goes well beyond the 3.0 fWAR he put up in 59 games. Take Tatis out of that lineup and I don't think the 37-23 Padres drop to 34-26, but to something more like 30-30. San Diego's biggest asset in 2020 was its energy, and Tatis was at the center. Had he played even average baseball over the last couple weeks of the season, I think he would have been the clear MVP.

Honorable mention: OF Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 18 HR, .338/.431/.636, 0 SB, 179 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 60 games.
Here in the third spot, I wouldn't argue with Manny Machado, who carried the Padres through Tatis' slump on his way to a strong .304/.370/.580 season + his trademark defense, or Trea Turner, who had an unbelievable stretch in which he hit .471/.526/.816 over 21 games (over a third of the season!) and at one point collected fifteen hits in a four stretch. But Marcell Ozuna's continued offensive dominance over a "full," sixty game season could only be matched by his teammate Freddie Freeman, and his 18 home runs and 56 RBI finished atop the National League while his .431 on-base percentage and .636 slugging percentage weren't far behind. Looking at the Braves' final 35-25 record, you'd have no idea about their rotation problems or the fact that Ronald Acuña missed nearly a quarter of the season, and that's due to Freeman and Ozuna forming the best middle of the order in baseball by far. He kept Freeman from getting the Juan Soto/Barry Bonds treatment, and in total he produced as much offense as any non-Freeman player in baseball.

Others: RHP Trevor Bauer (CIN, 1.73 ERA), 3B Manny Machado (SD, 2.5 fWAR), SS Trea Turner (WSH, 2.7 fWAR), OF Mookie Betts (LAD, 2.9 fWAR), OF Juan Soto (WSH, 2.4 fWAR)

AL Cy Young: RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 8-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 122/21 K/BB in 77.1 IP.
This was the easiest award to hand out by far, didn't have to think twice. See Bieber's MVP writeup for more details.

Runner-up: RHP Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins
Stat line: 6-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 80/10 K/BB in 66.2 IP.
This #2 slot is very close between Maeda and Gerrit Cole, but Maeda's incredible ability to not only limit runs but limit baserunners gives him the edge. His 0.75 WHIP led both leagues by a good margin ahead of second place Trevor Bauer (0.79) and third place Dinelson Lamet (0.86), and it's actually the second lowest ever in a season behind Pedro Martinez's 0.74 in 2000 (Bauer, interestingly, is fourth best all time). In his eleven starts, Maeda went at least five innings in all of them and never allowed more than three runs in a start, but more impressively, he never allowed more than six baserunners in any start. His best work came on August 18th against the Brewers when he allowed one run on just three baserunners over eight innings, striking out twelve. With a lack of superstar seasons ahead of him (aside from Bieber), it's enough to place second in the league despite a 2.70 ERA.

Honorable mention: RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Stat line: 7-3, 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 94/17 K/BB in 73 IP.
I'm a sucker for a large body of work, so the fact that Gerrit Cole finished fourth in the American League with 73 innings is a big plus for me. Obviously that's not all he had going for him, also racking up the third most strikeouts (94), fourth best WHIP (0.96), and sixth best ERA (2.84) despite pitching in a heavy hitters' park and pitching most of his road starts in hitters' parks as well in Baltimore, Atlanta, and Buffalo. Still, he spun some gems and finished the season with three consecutive seven inning starts in which he allowed one run or fewer, and he struck out at least seven in ten of his twelve starts. Yankees fans may have had sky high, Cy Young or bust expectations (I should know – I'm engaged to one) and a 2.84 ERA might feel like a let down, but given the fact that he made just two starts in pitcher friendly parks this year and that he still kept his WHIP under 1.00 and struck out nearly 100, I'd call this exactly what New York paid for.

Others: LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (TOR, 2.69 ERA), LHP Dallas Keuchel (CWS, 1.99 ERA), RHP Lance Lynn (TEX, 3.32 ERA), RHP Zach Plesac (CLE, 2.28 ERA), LHP Marco Gonzales (SEA, 3.10 ERA).

NL Cy Young: RHP Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds
Stat line: 5-4, 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 100/17 K/BB in 73 IP.
It's been an interesting few years for Trevor Bauer, who never posted an ERA below 4.18 from 2012-2017 but dropped all the way to 2.21 in 2018, only to rocket back up to 4.48 in 2019. Now in 2020, he's coming off a year that could very well win him a Cy Young Award, and it was a 1.24 ERA and a 39/4 strikeout to walk ratio over his final four starts that fully pushed him past Jacob deGrom. Bauer's entire season was exceptional, with four different starts of a dozen or more strikeouts, eight out of eleven starts allowing either zero or one earned run, and all eleven where he pitched into the sixth inning. He led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79) while finishing second in strikeouts (100) and sixth in innings pitched, all while pitching in a tough hitters' park in Cincinnati. This year, it was the Reds' offense that scuffled at times, not its pitching as had been the case in years past, and Bauer combined with Luis Castillo to form one of the best one-two punches in baseball. The short season obviously matters, but his 0.79 WHIP is technically the lowest in the history of the National League, and that counts for something.

Runner-up: RHP Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
Stat line: 8-3, 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 93/14 K/BB in 76 IP.
I went back and forth between Yu Darvish and Dinelson Lamet for this spot, but Darvish gets the edge with seven more innings pitched, a slightly lower ERA, and similar dominance in terms of keeping runners off the bases. He was one of baseball's better pitchers from 2012-2016 with the Rangers before falling into more of an inconsistent, mid-rotation profile with the Dodgers and Cubs from 2017-2019. 2020 was the best we've ever seen from the Japanese hurler, in which he had the second best ERA in the National League. After allowing three runs over four innings in an unremarkable first start of the season, he allowed zero or one earned run in eight of his final eleven starts and went at least six innings in each of them. That consistency was key for a Cubs team that won the NL Central for the first time since 2017, and by eating 76 innings, he was third in the league. He did it by the strikeout, his 93 finishing fourth in the league, but he also did it with excellent command, his 1.66 walks per nine finishing second only to his teammate Kyle Hendricks.

Honorable mention: RHP Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres
Stat line: 3-1, 2.09 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 93/20 K/BB in 69 IP.
A three win pitcher as a top three Cy Young candidate? 2020 really is a different animal. After flashing strikeout stuff over his first two seasons sandwiched around Tommy John surgery, Dinelson Lamet put it all together in 2020 for baseball's most exciting team. In twelve starts, he put up a 2.09 ERA, struck out 93, and allowed just 39 hits in 69 innings. Aside from a precautionary early exit in his final start of the season, Lamet went at least five innings in all of his starts and never allowed more than six hits or three earned runs in any. He finished second in the NL in WHIP (0.86), third in ERA (2.09), and fourth in strikeouts (93). His .250 xwOBA (expected opponents' offense, essentially) was third in the NL behind only Bauer and Jacob deGrom, showing that his exceptional season was earned, too. If you've never seen a Lamet slider, you need to watch one of his starts.

Others: RHP Jacob deGrom (NYM, 2.38 ERA), RHP Kyle Hendricks (CHC, 2.88 ERA), LHP Clayton Kershaw (LAD, 2.16 ERA), RHP Corbin Burnes (MIL, 2.11 ERA), RHP German Marquez (COL, 3.75 ERA)

Top Free Agent Outfielders of the 2019-2020 Offseason

1. Nicholas Castellanos (2020 Age: 28)

2019: 27 HR, .289/.337/.525, 2 SB, 121 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 151 games

It's clear that Castellanos is the best hitter in the outfield market after Martinez, as he's posted four straight seasons with at least a 111 wRC+ and back to back seasons above 120. Additionally, he led all of baseball with with 58 doubles, a number that was the tenth most ever in a single season and the most since Todd Helton hit 59 in 2000. On the other hand, he's a liability in the outfield, so he'd likely fit better as a DH on an American League team. That would make him one of the game's better DH's, because he's one of the game's better hitters and doesn't turn 28 until March, making him one of the youngest free agents available. For his career, the South Florida native has 120 home runs, a .277/.326/.471 slash line, and 10.4 fWAR over 888 games since 2013.

2. Marcell Ozuna (2020 Age: 29)

2019: 29 HR, .241/.328/.472, 12 SB, 110 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR in 130 games

Ozuna's huge 2017 (37 HR, .312/.376/.548) is looking more like an aberration than anything else, but he has still maintained an above average bat and has never dropped below a 92 wRC+ in any of his seven major league seasons. He's got some power, gets to it frequently, and draws enough walks to get on base at a solid clip, making him a very solid #5 or #6 hitter for any lineup. He's not a burner, but he can actually run a little bit for a 6'1", 225 pound power hitter, and that should keep his defense from regressing too far over the next couple of seasons. Spending the whole 2020 season at 29 years old helps too. Overall, he should have a good market as a guy who can fit onto and be a net positive on most teams but who won't cost $100 million to bring in. For his career, the Dominican has 148 home runs, a .272/.329/.455 slash line, and 20.3 fWAR over 931 games since 2013.

3. Yasiel Puig (2020 Age: 29)

2019: 24 HR, .267/.327/.458, 19 SB, 101 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR in 149 games

Yasiel Puig isn't actually all that different of a player from Marcell Ozuna, he's just a bit more...like Yasiel Puig. Both possess some power, have posted above average offensive numbers for most of their careers, run better than you'd expect given their frames, and turn 29 this offseason. However, while Puig has actually been slightly more consistent than Ozuna (his career-low wRC+ of 101 beats Ozuna's 92), he's also a complete wild card both on and off the field, frequently finding himself in on-field skirmishes and making headlines. He also is less adept at using is solid speed than Ozuna, as his defense is below average and he doesn't provide as much baserunning value as Ozuna despite stealing more bases. In all, both players are about equal, but Ozuna just seems less risky and would therefore be the better option in my opinion. For his career, the Cuban has 132 home runs, a .277/.348/.475 slash line, and 18.0 fWAR over 861 games since 2013.

4. Avisail Garcia (2020 Age: 28-29)

2019: 20 HR, .282/.332/.464, 10 SB, 112 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR in 125 games

Avisail obviously isn't the guy he was in 2017, when he somehow slashed .330/.380/.506 with 18 home runs and 4.2 fWAR for the White Sox, but he bounced back nicely from a rough 2018 (.236/.281/.438, 19 HR) to post another solid season in 2019. His .282/.332/.464 slash line was the second best of his career, hitting both lefties (.265/.328/.451) and righties (.291/.334/.471) to ensure his value as a full time starter, not just as a platoon guy. He'll probably continue to be up and down with his new team, but when he's up, he has real value in the box and can start every day for most teams. Turning 29 in June, he's young for a free agent. For his career, the Venezuelan has 96 home runs, a .273/.323/.428 slash line, and 6.2 fWAR over 763 games since 2012.

5. Kole Calhoun (2020 Age: 32)

2019: 33 HR, .232/.325/.467, 4 SB, 108 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 152 games

Calhoun is yet another player who has some power and isn't necessarily a positive in the outfield, but setting a career high with 33 home runs last year is certainly a positive. It also looks like his .208/.283/.369 line in 2018 was more of an aberration than anything else, as his expected statistics didn't look all that different from his career norms, and he remains a solid bat that can produce all-around at the plate. He's also not the worst defender, but he'll probably provide more value out there than a guy like Puig or Garcia and certainly more than Castellanos. However, unlike most of the guys ranked ahead of him on this list, he will spend the whole 2020 season at 32 years old. For his career, the Arizona State product has 140 home runs, a .249/.322/.424 slash line, and 15.6 fWAR over 966  games since 2012.

6. Corey Dickerson (2020 Age: 30-31)

2019: 12 HR, .304/.341/.565, 1 SB, 127 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR in 78 games

Bouncing between small market teams before spending 34 games with the Phillies this year, Corey Dickerson has flown under the radar but he's also posted six consecutive seasons as an above-league-average hitter, and in his last three, he's posted wRC+'s of 116, 115, and 127. He hits for both average and power, and while he doesn't walk much, he produces enough offensive value elsewhere to overcome it. He also doesn't provide a lot of defensive value, so combined with his lefty/righty splits, he may be more of a platoon hitter. That's okay, because he crushes right handed pitching (.313/.355/.587 in 2019) and still holds his own against lefties (.271/.290/.492). For his career, the Mississippi native has 115 home runs, a .286/.328/.504 slash line, and 11.5 fWAR over 776 games since 2013.

7. Brett Gardner (2020 Age: 36-37)

2019: 28 HR, .251/.325/.503, 10 SB, 115 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR in 141 games

As with Calhoun, the juiced ball helped Brett Gardner set a career high with 28 home runs, crushing his previous career high slugging percentage of .428 with a .503 mark this year. He's an older free agent, already 36 years old, so you would certainly be buying a declining version of Gardner. However, as he proved in 2019, he's still a valuable player on both sides of the ball who should at least produce at an average or close to average level in 2020, and at the very least he provides a veteran presence. He still has well above average speed, too, which he uses on both sides of the ball, so age hasn't caught up to him as quickly as it has caught other players in his shoes. For his career, the College of Charleston product has 124 home runs, a .260/.342/.401 slash line, 267 stolen bases, and 37.0 fWAR over 1499 games since 2008.

8. Cameron Maybin (2020 Age: 33)

2019: 11 HR, .285/.364/.494, 9 SB, 127 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR in 82 games

One of the game's more inconsistent players, Maybin has been really good (.315/.383/.418 in 2016) and not so good (.228/.318/.365 in 2017) for stretches at a time. However, he was definitely up in 2020, and pointing to his exit velocities and launch angles being higher than they've ever been, it might be somewhat sustainable this time. That doesn't mean Maybin is going to be a three win player in 2020, but he could hold down a starting position for a full season if he keeps hitting the ball the way he has been. He's still a near-average defender in the outfield and he hasn't lost too much of his speed. Still, despite this looking like a true breakout for Maybin at age-32, his lack of consistency and track record compared to many other available free agents in this price range (Brett Gardner, Alex Gordon, Adam Jones) might scare off some suitors who can't take the risk. For his career, the Asheville, North Carolina native has 71 home runs, a .256/.324/.376 slash line, 183 stolen bases, and 14.9 fWAR over 1121 games since 2007.

9. Alex Gordon (2020 Age: 36)

2019: 13 HR, .266/.345/.396, 5 SB, 96 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR in 150 games

An older free agent, Gordon has been a staple in Kansas City for 13 years and on the Great Plains for much longer, and while he is slowing down a bit, he showed in 2019 that he has some left in the tank. He was virtually league average with his bat, and while his typically excellent defense has begun to decline with age, he still held his own out in left field and is one of the game's better defenders out there. Like Gardner, he shouldn't be expected to produce in the long run, but he should be a valuable piece in 2020 that could start on quite a few teams, and he provides that veteran presence at the very least. For his career, the former Nebraska Cornhusker has 186 home runs, a .258/.339/.413 slash line, and 32.1 fWAR over 1703 games since 2007.

10. Adam Jones (2020 Age: 34-35)

2019: 16 HR, .260/.313/.414, 2 SB, 87 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR in 137 games

Adam Jones has had a near perfect aging curve, working his way up in the late 2000's before breaking out with a big run from 2009-2015, then since 2016 he's slowly declined. At this point, he's a near average bat with declining speed, but he has proven durable and consistent throughout his career and he's considered to be a big plus in the clubhouse and in the community. He could still start on a non-contending team, though he'd be more of a fourth outfielder on many of baseball's better teams, and he's already 34 so he can't be counted on in the long term. Still, everyone loves Adam Jones, and any team would be happy to have him in some role or another. For his career, the San Diego native has 282 home runs, a .277/.317/.454 slash line, and 29.4 fWAR over 1823 games since 2006.

Others

Hunter Pence (18 HR, .297/.358/.552, 1.8 fWAR, age 37)

Lonnie Chisenhall (did not play - injured, age 31)

Jarrod Dyson (7 HR, .230/.313/.320, 30 SB, 1.3 fWAR, age 35-36)

Gerardo Parra (9 HR, .234/.293/.391, -0.2 fWAR, age 32-33)

Melky Cabrera (7 HR, .280/.313/.399, -0.7 fWAR, age 35-36)

After Missing on Stanton, Cardinals Acquire Marlins' Ozuna

Cardinals Get: Marcell Ozuna: 37 HR, .312/.376/.548, 1 SB, 142 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR

Marlins Get: Sandy Alcantara: 0-0, 4.32 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 10/6 K/BB, 8.1 IP

Magneuris Sierra: 0 HR, .317/.359/.317, 2 SB, 86 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

Zac Gallen: 10-8, 2.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 121/35 K/BB, 147.2 IP at High Class A, AA, and AAA

Daniel Castano: 9-3, 2.57 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB, 91 IP at Class A Short Season

After Stanton, the trade of Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals is perhaps the biggest this offseason. St. Louis is a team with very real playoff aspirations, but an outfield of Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, and Stephen Piscotty/Randal Grichuk isn't quite enough for a World Series run. With Piscotty likely to be dealt to the A's, Ozuna can step in and seriously upgrade the team. He'll immediately be the best bat in the lineup, slotting right in the middle with Fowler, Pham, Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, Paul DeJong, and Yadier Molina around him. He has two years of arbitration left, meaning the Cardinals will have him cheap in both 2018 and 2019, and they'll be his age 27 and 28 seasons. You might not have heard about it because of his small market team, but Ozuna blossomed from an above-average hitter to one who straight up mashed in 2017. A year after slashing a respectable .266/.321/.452 with 23 home runs in 2016, good for a 106 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR, Ozuna got onto another level this year, slashing .312/.376/.548 with 37 home runs, a 142 wRC+, and 4.8 fWAR in 2017, earning a spot in his second straight All Star Game. His 142 wRC+ was good for 15th in all of baseball, slotting him ahead of such names as Charlie Blackmon (141), Zack Cozart (141), George Springer (140), and Cody Bellinger (138). Even with defense that Fangraphs rated as overall negative in value, his 4.8 fWAR was enough to place him 21st among all MLB position players. His arm helped him "save" ten runs defensively, netting him a Gold Glove, and he has turned himself into a real asset. Are we due for some regression in 2018? Probably, when you consider his career-high .355 BABIP (versus .327 for his career), but you can also look at his career-high 39.1% hard-hit rate and career-high 9.4% walk rate and think their might have been something going on. For his career, the Dominican has 96 home runs and a .277/.329/.457 slash line, racking up 14.2 fWAR in 653 games, all with the Marlins.

For the Cardinals, this trade injects a huge amount of talent into a completely barren farm system, even after the Stanton and Gordon trades. Their top two prospects (according to MLB.com), Trevor Rogers and Braxton Garrett, combined to throw just 15.1 professional innings (all Garrett) in their entire careers. However, with the big haul coming in, their farm system immediately jumps from "awful" to "mediocre," and that's a big leap. Sandy Alcantara, a 22 year old Dominican fireballer, is one of two headliners in the package. He spent the minor league season with AA Springfield, putting up so-so numbers (4.31 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 106/54 K/BB in 125.1 innings), but was promoted to the majors in September and held his own (4.32 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 10/6 K/BB in 8.1 innings). His best pitch is his fastball, which sits in the mid to upper 90's and reaches 100 at times, followed by a pretty good changeup. His curveball is average right now, but a live arm like Alcantara's could tighten it in time. He's a string bean at 6'4" and 170 pounds and has the ceiling of a #2 starter, but even if his command and curveball don't develop in the way the Marlins hope, he could fall back onto being an elite reliever. Co-headlining the deal is 21 year old outfielder Magneuris Sierra, a fellow Dominican who made a huge jump in 2017. Sierra began the year at High Class A Palm Beach, slashing .272/.337/.407 with three doubles, four triples, and three stolen bases in 20 games. He was promoted straight to the majors in May, and spent the rest of the season bouncing back and forth between the Cardinals and AA Springfield. With Springfield, he slashed .269/.313/.357 with one home run and 17 stolen bases in 81 games, and with St. Louis, he slashed .317/.359/.317 with no extra base hits and two stolen bases in 22 games. Sierra is young, which is a bonus, and he plays excellent defense in center field, but he also has no power to speak of and hasn't yet mastered the art of drawing walks. He already has the contact ability to stick in the majors, but if he can improve his walk rate, he could be a top of the order hitter. If not, he's an excellent fourth outfielder/defensive replacement or a good bottom of the order hitter. 22 year old right hander Zac Gallen was a personal favorite of mine during his time back at the University of North Carolina, and the Cardinals selected him in the third round of the 2016 draft. From there, he has shut down minor league hitting, starting 2017 with High Class A Palm Beach and dominating to the tune of a 1.62 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 56/10 strikeout to walk ratio in nine starts. Promoted to AA Springfield, he held his own despite being just a year removed from college ball, going 4-5 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 13 starts, striking out 42 and walking 19 in 71.1 innings. He had a few starts for AAA Memphis interspersed in there, where he put up a 3.48 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 23/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.2 innings. Gallen right now projects as a mid to back-end starter, throwing a running fastball in the low 90's, a darting cutter that contrasts well with the fastball, and a good changeup. With his above average command, he's pretty low risk, meaning it's hard to imagine him as ending up as anything less than a #5 starter. Lastly, there's Daniel Castano, a 23 year old right hander drafted in the 19th round out of Baylor in 2016. He really got going in 2017 in the Class A Short Season New York-Penn League, going 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and an 81/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings. He's a bit on the older side for a prospect that far away from the majors, but he'll try to jump a few levels in 2018 and could be a back-end starter with his good command.