Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Top Free Agent Outfielders of the 2019-2020 Offseason

1. Nicholas Castellanos (2020 Age: 28)
2019: 27 HR, .289/.337/.525, 2 SB, 121 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 151 games
It's clear that Castellanos is the best hitter in the outfield market after Martinez, as he's posted four straight seasons with at least a 111 wRC+ and back to back seasons above 120. Additionally, he led all of baseball with with 58 doubles, a number that was the tenth most ever in a single season and the most since Todd Helton hit 59 in 2000. On the other hand, he's a liability in the outfield, so he'd likely fit better as a DH on an American League team. That would make him one of the game's better DH's, because he's one of the game's better hitters and doesn't turn 28 until March, making him one of the youngest free agents available. For his career, the South Florida native has 120 home runs, a .277/.326/.471 slash line, and 10.4 fWAR over 888 games since 2013.

2. Marcell Ozuna (2020 Age: 29)
2019: 29 HR, .241/.328/.472, 12 SB, 110 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR in 130 games
Ozuna's huge 2017 (37 HR, .312/.376/.548) is looking more like an aberration than anything else, but he has still maintained an above average bat and has never dropped below a 92 wRC+ in any of his seven major league seasons. He's got some power, gets to it frequently, and draws enough walks to get on base at a solid clip, making him a very solid #5 or #6 hitter for any lineup. He's not a burner, but he can actually run a little bit for a 6'1", 225 pound power hitter, and that should keep his defense from regressing too far over the next couple of seasons. Spending the whole 2020 season at 29 years old helps too. Overall, he should have a good market as a guy who can fit onto and be a net positive on most teams but who won't cost $100 million to bring in. For his career, the Dominican has 148 home runs, a .272/.329/.455 slash line, and 20.3 fWAR over 931 games since 2013.

3. Yasiel Puig (2020 Age: 29)
2019: 24 HR, .267/.327/.458, 19 SB, 101 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR in 149 games
Yasiel Puig isn't actually all that different of a player from Marcell Ozuna, he's just a bit more...like Yasiel Puig. Both possess some power, have posted above average offensive numbers for most of their careers, run better than you'd expect given their frames, and turn 29 this offseason. However, while Puig has actually been slightly more consistent than Ozuna (his career-low wRC+ of 101 beats Ozuna's 92), he's also a complete wild card both on and off the field, frequently finding himself in on-field skirmishes and making headlines. He also is less adept at using is solid speed than Ozuna, as his defense is below average and he doesn't provide as much baserunning value as Ozuna despite stealing more bases. In all, both players are about equal, but Ozuna just seems less risky and would therefore be the better option in my opinion. For his career, the Cuban has 132 home runs, a .277/.348/.475 slash line, and 18.0 fWAR over 861 games since 2013.

4. Avisail Garcia (2020 Age: 28-29)
2019: 20 HR, .282/.332/.464, 10 SB, 112 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR in 125 games
Avisail obviously isn't the guy he was in 2017, when he somehow slashed .330/.380/.506 with 18 home runs and 4.2 fWAR for the White Sox, but he bounced back nicely from a rough 2018 (.236/.281/.438, 19 HR) to post another solid season in 2019. His .282/.332/.464 slash line was the second best of his career, hitting both lefties (.265/.328/.451) and righties (.291/.334/.471) to ensure his value as a full time starter, not just as a platoon guy. He'll probably continue to be up and down with his new team, but when he's up, he has real value in the box and can start every day for most teams. Turning 29 in June, he's young for a free agent. For his career, the Venezuelan has 96 home runs, a .273/.323/.428 slash line, and 6.2 fWAR over 763 games since 2012.

5. Kole Calhoun (2020 Age: 32)
2019: 33 HR, .232/.325/.467, 4 SB, 108 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 152 games
Calhoun is yet another player who has some power and isn't necessarily a positive in the outfield, but setting a career high with 33 home runs last year is certainly a positive. It also looks like his .208/.283/.369 line in 2018 was more of an aberration than anything else, as his expected statistics didn't look all that different from his career norms, and he remains a solid bat that can produce all-around at the plate. He's also not the worst defender, but he'll probably provide more value out there than a guy like Puig or Garcia and certainly more than Castellanos. However, unlike most of the guys ranked ahead of him on this list, he will spend the whole 2020 season at 32 years old. For his career, the Arizona State product has 140 home runs, a .249/.322/.424 slash line, and 15.6 fWAR over 966  games since 2012.

6. Corey Dickerson (2020 Age: 30-31)
2019: 12 HR, .304/.341/.565, 1 SB, 127 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR in 78 games
Bouncing between small market teams before spending 34 games with the Phillies this year, Corey Dickerson has flown under the radar but he's also posted six consecutive seasons as an above-league-average hitter, and in his last three, he's posted wRC+'s of 116, 115, and 127. He hits for both average and power, and while he doesn't walk much, he produces enough offensive value elsewhere to overcome it. He also doesn't provide a lot of defensive value, so combined with his lefty/righty splits, he may be more of a platoon hitter. That's okay, because he crushes right handed pitching (.313/.355/.587 in 2019) and still holds his own against lefties (.271/.290/.492). For his career, the Mississippi native has 115 home runs, a .286/.328/.504 slash line, and 11.5 fWAR over 776 games since 2013.

7. Brett Gardner (2020 Age: 36-37)
2019: 28 HR, .251/.325/.503, 10 SB, 115 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR in 141 games
As with Calhoun, the juiced ball helped Brett Gardner set a career high with 28 home runs, crushing his previous career high slugging percentage of .428 with a .503 mark this year. He's an older free agent, already 36 years old, so you would certainly be buying a declining version of Gardner. However, as he proved in 2019, he's still a valuable player on both sides of the ball who should at least produce at an average or close to average level in 2020, and at the very least he provides a veteran presence. He still has well above average speed, too, which he uses on both sides of the ball, so age hasn't caught up to him as quickly as it has caught other players in his shoes. For his career, the College of Charleston product has 124 home runs, a .260/.342/.401 slash line, 267 stolen bases, and 37.0 fWAR over 1499 games since 2008.

8. Cameron Maybin (2020 Age: 33)
2019: 11 HR, .285/.364/.494, 9 SB, 127 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR in 82 games
One of the game's more inconsistent players, Maybin has been really good (.315/.383/.418 in 2016) and not so good (.228/.318/.365 in 2017) for stretches at a time. However, he was definitely up in 2020, and pointing to his exit velocities and launch angles being higher than they've ever been, it might be somewhat sustainable this time. That doesn't mean Maybin is going to be a three win player in 2020, but he could hold down a starting position for a full season if he keeps hitting the ball the way he has been. He's still a near-average defender in the outfield and he hasn't lost too much of his speed. Still, despite this looking like a true breakout for Maybin at age-32, his lack of consistency and track record compared to many other available free agents in this price range (Brett Gardner, Alex Gordon, Adam Jones) might scare off some suitors who can't take the risk. For his career, the Asheville, North Carolina native has 71 home runs, a .256/.324/.376 slash line, 183 stolen bases, and 14.9 fWAR over 1121 games since 2007.

9. Alex Gordon (2020 Age: 36)
2019: 13 HR, .266/.345/.396, 5 SB, 96 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR in 150 games
An older free agent, Gordon has been a staple in Kansas City for 13 years and on the Great Plains for much longer, and while he is slowing down a bit, he showed in 2019 that he has some left in the tank. He was virtually league average with his bat, and while his typically excellent defense has begun to decline with age, he still held his own out in left field and is one of the game's better defenders out there. Like Gardner, he shouldn't be expected to produce in the long run, but he should be a valuable piece in 2020 that could start on quite a few teams, and he provides that veteran presence at the very least. For his career, the former Nebraska Cornhusker has 186 home runs, a .258/.339/.413 slash line, and 32.1 fWAR over 1703 games since 2007.

10. Adam Jones (2020 Age: 34-35)
2019: 16 HR, .260/.313/.414, 2 SB, 87 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR in 137 games
Adam Jones has had a near perfect aging curve, working his way up in the late 2000's before breaking out with a big run from 2009-2015, then since 2016 he's slowly declined. At this point, he's a near average bat with declining speed, but he has proven durable and consistent throughout his career and he's considered to be a big plus in the clubhouse and in the community. He could still start on a non-contending team, though he'd be more of a fourth outfielder on many of baseball's better teams, and he's already 34 so he can't be counted on in the long term. Still, everyone loves Adam Jones, and any team would be happy to have him in some role or another. For his career, the San Diego native has 282 home runs, a .277/.317/.454 slash line, and 29.4 fWAR over 1823 games since 2006.

Others
Hunter Pence (18 HR, .297/.358/.552, 1.8 fWAR, age 37)
Lonnie Chisenhall (did not play - injured, age 31)
Jarrod Dyson (7 HR, .230/.313/.320, 30 SB, 1.3 fWAR, age 35-36)
Gerardo Parra (9 HR, .234/.293/.391, -0.2 fWAR, age 32-33)
Melky Cabrera (7 HR, .280/.313/.399, -0.7 fWAR, age 35-36)

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