1-5: SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt
2-42: RHP CJ Van Eyk, Florida State
3-77: RHP Trent Palmer, Jacksonville
4-106: RHP Nick Frasso, Loyola Marymount
5-136: OF Zach Britton, Louisville
I love this Blue Jays draft class, and I think they did it exactly right. There was no way they expected Austin Martin to still be available halfway through the top ten picks, but because the Orioles and Marlins went in an unexpected direction, that meant Martin was there for the taking. Sure, he required the second highest bonus in the draft and surely threw the Jays' draft plans out the window, but they sure aren't complaining. They smartly didn't shy away from giving Martin the big bucks, then even went slightly over slot on second rounder CJ Van Eyk and Trent Palmer as well. That's aggressive, and I like it. In the end, they over spent their bonus pool by 5%, the maximum you can spend without losing a draft pick, and it netted them a great class. I think they were very smart to do so. Yesterday, I wrote about the Mariners being stingy with their class, and they should have taken a note from what the Jays did. I guess that philosophy is why the Blue Jays' system is so much better than the Mariners', but hey, Seattle saved a few bucks I guess.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-5: SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt (my rank: 2)
Debate raged over who the Tigers should take first overall, Austin Martin or Spencer Torkelson, but while Torkelson's prodigious bat earned him the spot, it's pretty clear that Martin is the best all-around player in the draft class. The Jacksonville native is a career .368/.474/.532 hitter with 14 home runs, 43 stolen bases, and an 82/85 strikeout to walk ratio over 140 games at Vanderbilt, facing some of the toughest pitching in college baseball. Those numbers were as high as .377/.507/.660 in 2020, as Martin continued his ruthless assault on college pitching. He has elite barrel to ball skills that enable him to drive the ball with authority around the park at will, racking up tons of extra base hits (39 doubles and four triples in addition to his 14 home runs). A very patient hitter, he also draws plenty of walks which helped him post on-base percentages of .452, .486, and .507 from his freshman to junior seasons, and his elite strike zone management enabled him to strike out just twice in 16 games this year. The power is about average right now, but I wouldn't rule out above average power in the future, because he reminds me a lot of Alex Bregman at the same stage of his career. Guys who have that elite combination of zone control and barrel control inevitably run into more home runs than you'd expect, and I could see Martin as a 20-25 home run guy in addition to one who posts .400+ on-base percentages. With good speed to boot, he's the whole package offensively. Defensively, there were already questions as to whether he could stick at shortstop, but in a Blue Jays system that's absolutely loaded with infield talent, that seems less likely. He hadn't been seen much at shortstop in deference to now-Pirates prospect Ethan Paul, and this year he's bounced around the field for Vanderbilt as well. The coaching staff there was never sold on his feel for the infield, even if he is a natural athlete with speed and strength, so he could end up at third base with a little refinement for the Blue Jays or center field if they want to go the path of least resistance. No matter where he ends up defensively, he should be a net-positive so long as it isn't shortstop, and the bat will play anywhere regardless. I'm really excited to see what he does in pro ball. Martin's $7 million signing bonus was about $820,000 above slot, but the Jays did it and they didn't shy away from their later picks. Pre-draft profile here.
2-42: RHP CJ Van Eyk, Florida State (my rank: 42)
CJ Van Eyk was a well-known draft prospect coming out of high school in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, but he wound up at Florida State and steadily built his stock up with a very impressive career in Tallahassee: 18-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 225/83 K/BB in 176.2 innings. Van Eyk is the kind of pitcher who could have easily snuck into the back of the first round in most drafts, but this draft was so deep in college pitching that he fell to the Blue Jays in the second round. That's not to say that he should have gone higher, since the pitchers ahead of him really were legitimate arms, but it does mean the Jays can be really excited about this kind of name being available as a result. He leads off with a solid fastball in the low 90's that can reach up to 95, but his best pitch is a plus 12-6 curveball that he has tremendous feel for. Van Eyk also throws a slider and a changeup, though the fastball and curveball are his main pitches. His command is relatively inconsistent, but although it grades as clearly below average, it's not a huge red flag. He's generally at least around the zone and shows good feel for moving his curveball around the plate, so while pro hitters will be able to lay off his close misses for the most part, a few tweaks should get him up to average command. The 6'1" righty can make that work, because he gets a little bit of deception on his pitches as well, coming across his body to put tough angle on the ball. So long as he makes the necessary strides with his command, we're probably looking at a very solid #3 starter type, and even if his command remains below average, there's a good chance he can still crack it as a back-end starter. He signed for $1.8 million, which was about $30,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.
3-77: RHP Trent Palmer, Jacksonville (my rank: 143)
This marks a third straight pick with ties to the state of Florida. Austin Martin grew up in Jacksonville but left for school, CJ Van Eyk grew up in Tampa and stayed in state, and finally, Trent Palmer grew up in the Minneapolis area but headed way down south to Jacksonville for college. Personally, I'm not a huge fan of this pick, especially considering it was an over slot signing, but I see why the Blue Jays like him. Palmer is a 6'1" righty who had been solid, if unspectacular, over his first two seasons at Jacksonville, but he was very good on the Cape (1.21 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 22.1 IP) then broke out in 2020 with a 1.30 ERA, a 0.61 WHIP, and a 41/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 96, and he adds a solid slider, curve, and changeup to go with it. Everything comes from an extremely loose arm that has enabled him to transition to starting very well, and his command has steadily improved throughout his college career, now playing close to average. He's a stockier guy who doesn't figure to add a ton of velocity, but he has enough to succeed right now and will just have to focus on sharpening his secondary pitches a little. They're pretty good right now, given his average-ish command, you'd probably want them to be a little crisper and miss more bats. If he can continue the trend he's on with his command and get to solid average or slightly above, though, he could fit in as a #4 starter. Otherwise, he could fit well in a bullpen role, where his stuff would likely tick up. Palmer signed for $847,500, which was about $41,900 above slot value.
4-106: RHP Nick Frasso, Loyola Marymount (my rank: 96)
There are a lot of question marks with Frasso, but the upside here is really exciting. He's a lanky 6'5" righty that looks uncoordinated out there on the field, but he brings lots of athleticism regardless. A standout high school basketball player in the Los Angeles suburbs, Frasso has been a steady performer at Loyola Marymount with a career 2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 158/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings. He brings the heat with a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, but the pitch plays way up because his long arms enable him to release the baseball practically right in front of the hitter's face. There is also some funk to his delivery and he puts high spin rates on the ball, meaning that its above average velocity plays more as a true plus pitch. For now, that's what the Blue Jays are buying, hoping they can develop the rest of his arsenal. His slider is his best secondary pitch, looking average overall but playing well off his fastball when he tunnels them together, and his changeup is definitely his third pitch. Despite his gangly stature and funky, jerky delivery, he's very coordinated and fills up the strike zone consistently. Now, he only threw 8.2 innings in 2020 because he missed time with forearm problems, and we're just going to have to see how that plays out. If he comes back healthy, there is some real upside. With the easy plus fastball and above average command, all he really needs to do is sharpen his secondary pitches a little bit to become a legitimate impact starter, should he prove durable enough to handle that role. If durability remains a concern or if the changeup never really comes along, he would fit great in the bullpen, so aside from injuries, I see a relatively high floor as well as some ceiling on top of it. I'm very interested to see where he goes in pro ball and I really hope he gets/stays healthy. Frasso signed for $459,000, which was $90,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
5-136: OF Zach Britton, Louisville (unranked)
This was the Blue Jays' main money saver to afford Austin Martin. Britton, of no relation to Yankees reliever Zack Britton, grew up in southeastern Indiana about 40 miles outside of Cincinnati, and he has steadily improved during his career at Louisville. He was off to a hot start in 2020, hitting .322/.446/.542 with a 12/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games, and that came on the heels of a solid run through the Cape Cod League. An average athlete at 6'1", he deploys his strength well in his whippy swing and shows solid average power while making very consistent contact. Usually, that power plays more into line drives than home runs in games, though he did hit five home runs on the Cape over the summer. The bat looks pretty interesting and should carry him to the big leagues, though he's an average defender in left field so the bat will be the sole thing pushing him up. If he can unlock a little bit more power, I could see him working his way into a starting role, though he's more likely to end up as a fourth outfielder in the long run. His $97,500 signing bonus was $312,600 below slot value.
Undrafted: IF/OF Zac Cook, Texas-Arlington (unranked)
Cook has been somewhat of a jack of all trades for the Mavericks over four years at UT Arlington, slashing .294/.395/.396 with seven home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 111/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 165 games. The Dallas-Fort Worth-area native was at his best in 2020, when he hit .321/.500/.623 with four home runs and a 13/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 16 games. At 6'1", he has been tapping into more of his raw power while continuing to make plenty of contact, showing a bat that should play as average all around in pro ball. He's played pretty much everywhere in the field at UTA, and will likely continue to be utilized in a super utility role in pro ball. Cook is also a great student, one that got into Dartmouth and Cornell but wanted to play baseball at UTA and is currently halfway through an MBA.
Undrafted: SS Harrison Ray, Vanderbilt (unranked)
Ray has been a mainstay in the Vanderbilt lineup for four years, though he's been more solid than flashy with a .259/.343/.378 slash line, five home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 137/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 158 games. Though he only stands 5'11", he packs some punch as a hitter that usually plays as gap to gap power, and he's a good runner that can make the most of that. He's a pretty aggressive hitter that picks up his fair share of strikeouts, which has been the case throughout his career and might have limited his production a little bit. He's probably more of a second baseman than a shortstop and fits best as a utility infielder who can do a little bit of everything despite not having a standout ability.
Showing posts with label Austin Martin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Austin Martin. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Friday, June 5, 2020
Spencer Torkelson vs Austin Martin: The 1-1 Discussion
Last year, the Orioles gave some thought to players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Andrew Vaughn, but for the most part, it was a forgone conclusion that they would select Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman first overall, and they did. In 2020, while Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson has emerged as the clear frontrunner, Vanderbilt infielder/outfielder Austin Martin remains very much in the conversation, and it's certainly an interesting one. You have two players who are similar enough to cleanly compare as fellow college position players, but different enough to contrast as guys with very different skill sets. With that, let's dive into what the thought process between these two could look like for the Tigers.
The Tigers' Position
Having to decide between two or more great players at 1-1 is a great problem to have. The current state of the system is very pitching-heavy, led by a "big three" of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal, with Mize having been the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. Now the MLB draft is very different from its NFL and NBA counterparts for a lot of reasons, but perhaps the biggest is this: you don't draft for need. If the Tigers believed the best player available was a pitcher like Asa Lacy or Emerson Hancock, they absolutely should have drafted one of the two, regardless of how pitching-heavy the system was. But the good news for the Tigers is that Torkelson and Martin are generally considered better players than Lacy and Hancock, so they can fill easily a need while still taking the best player available.
The Case for Spencer Torkelson
Position: 1B. 2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 15/31 K/BB.
My original profile written here
Spencer Torkelson has the best bat in the class, period. Over two-plus years at Arizona State, he cracked 54 home runs while slashing .337/.463/.729 with more walks (110) than strikeouts (104) across 129 games. The power is double plus, playing to all fields, against velocity and against good offspeed stuff, and with wood bats. The contact ability is plus as well, as Torkelson is adept at recognizing offspeed pitches, getting the barrel to the ball, and keeping his strikeouts down. There is no question that he is going to hit and hit for power in pro ball and in the majors. To boot, he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until August.
While Austin Martin is a no-doubt future plus hitter, Torkelson's bat is better. The quickest, easiest, and most robust way to get ROI on your top prospect is for him to hit, and Torkelson will do that. Martin is going to provide more defensive value, especially if he can stick at shortstop, but sometimes you just have to avoid the urge to get too cute and check all the boxes. There is a generational power prospect right there for the taking; just do it.
The Case for Austin Martin
Position: IF/OF. 2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 2/10 K/BB, 3 SB.
My original profile written here
Torkelson doesn't have a monopoly on the whole "being a special hitter" thing. Martin cut his strikeout rate from 16.8% as a freshman to 10.5% as a sophomore to a minuscule 2.9% as a junior – just two K's in sixteen games. Typically, that kind of contact is reserved for slap hitters or players who otherwise just kind of spray line drives around the field with little hope for double digit home run totals, but Martin doesn't fit that profile. He is a legitimate impact hitter who doesn't settle for weak contact, driving the ball with authority to all fields and over fences. He's hit 13 home runs in 81 games since the start of 2019, all while slashing .389/.490/.614 with just 36 strikeouts. While he doesn't project to be a true power hitter and certainly not Torkelson-esque in home run output, he should be good for anywhere from 15-25 home runs annually, all while putting up high on-base percentages in the .400 range. Alex Bregman had a remarkably similar profile in college, and he hit 41 home runs in 2019.
Martin is a hitting machine while also providing significantly more defensive value than Torkelson. Having watched Martin play various positions around the diamond, scouts have seen plenty to imply he could be an above average defender at shortstop. He has been surrounded by better defenders throughout his career, so he hasn't had the chance to prove it, but regardless, Martin will be providing value on both sides of the ball. Martin is the more well-rounded player, with a real chance of providing just as much offensive value as Torkelson with defense to boot. Don't let Torkelson's power distract from the fact that Martin is a special hitter who will have no trouble putting up big numbers against major league pitching with some speed to boot.
Other Options
LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M: The best pitcher in the class, Lacy is 14-5 with a 2.07 ERA and a 224/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings in his career at Texas A&M. He's big, he's mean, and he's left handed, which helps make his nasty four pitch mix play up with improving command to boot. Out of all the other options beyond Torkelson and Martin, Lacy seems like the "frontrunner among the dark horses" to go first overall. While that probably doesn't mean much given that the Tigers seem to be locking in on Tork, it is a testament to Lacy's immense upside combined with very little risk. Full profile here.
2B Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State: There are some that would argue that the only difference between Nick Gonzales and Austin Martin, at least offensively, is who they've played against. He is a career .399/.502/.747 hitter with 37 home runs and more walks (89) than strikeouts (79) in 128 games at New Mexico State. He hit .432/.532/.773 in 2019 then .448/.610/1.155 in 2020, and he also won the Cape Cod League MVP to prove his bat was for real. Still, the fact that he hasn't proved it day in and day out against SEC competition like Martin has, plus slightly worse defense, means that Martin remains a little bit ahead. His most likely landing spots are either the Royals at #4 or the Blue Jays at #5. Full profile here.
RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia: Hancock entered the 2020 season as an early favorite to go first overall, drawing comparisons to 2018 first overall pick Casey Mize after putting up a 1.99 ERA as a sophomore. His best attribute is his command, which helps his very good four pitch arsenal play up significantly. Not just a finesse pitcher, Hancock can hit 99 and all three of his offspeed pitches flash plus, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile. However, while the players listed above continued to push their stock forward this year, Hancock remained more or less in the same spot after a couple of up-and-down outings against Richmond and Georgia Tech, and some question his lack of a true, wipeout offspeed pitch. For that reason, he has fallen just behind Lacy, and he is perhaps equally likely to end up going anywhere from fourth to seventh overall. Full profile here.
OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS [FL]: Veen has steadily risen throughout the past calendar year, going from a fringe first rounder to a potential top ten pick to now having his name discussed as high as #4 to the Royals. The top high school prospect in the class, Veen has tremendous power projection in his 6'4" frame, with a beautiful left handed swing that figures to tap every bit of it without selling out. While he has shown some minor swing and miss concerns, they're not a huge deal and Veen's advanced plate discipline gives plenty of hope that they will never be an issue. Still, the college bats are much more proven than Veen and he would be a stretch for the Tigers at 1-1. Full profile here.
Michiganders for the Later Rounds
It's always fun to see guys go to their hometown team, and while no Michiganders are in the running for the first round at all (the closest geographically are Ed Howard of Chicago and Dillon Dingler of Massillon, Ohio), there is a lot of talent available for their later picks.
RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (hometown: Portage): Criswell is the top prospect among Michigan natives, a Portage native (near Kalamazoo) turned Wolverines starter. He holds a 2.88 ERA over three years in Ann Arbor and brings a solid three pitch mix highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a fading changeup. There have been some command questions and he hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, but with that three pitch mix, a 6'4" frame, and a track record in the Big Ten, he profiles as a solid second round arm. If he's still available for the Tigers' pick at #62, he could be a good fit. Full profile here.
OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (hometown: Ann Arbor): A graduate of Pioneer High School just down the road from Michigan's campus, Nwogu is actually on an academic scholarship for computer engineering, not an athletic one. That hasn't stopped him from being a career .334/.430/.545 hitter with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 125 games for the Wolverines, showing one of the better power/speed combinations in the class. He's big and athletic at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, though his swing is a bit awkward and he's fairly raw on both sides of the ball. He could come into play for the Tigers' picks at #102 and #132.
2B/C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (hometown: Southfield): A product of Groves High School between Southfield and Birmingham in the Detroit suburbs, Warren is a guy who has just hit and hit wherever he's gone. He slashed .363/.498/.571 with eight home runs as a sophomore at Central Michigan in 2019, then hit well on the Cape as well. He's actually kind of the opposite of Nwogu, as he doesn't have a ton of power or speed but he just steadily gets the job done. Warren is a very patient hitter who hits a lot of line drives and who could be a utility infielder or decent regular at the big league level. He also has a little bit of experience behind the plate, which could seriously boost his value if he ends up moving back there and sticking. Like Nwogu, he figures into picks #102 and #132 for Detroit.
RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (hometown: Cass City): The Thumb isn't known for producing a lot of baseball players, but Mason Erla has steadily risen from the small town of Cass City, about 50 miles northeast of Flint. A fairly unheralded recruit, he was solid but unspectacular over his first three years at Michigan State and went undrafted as a redshirt sophomore in 2019. That will change in 2020, as a huge uptick in his velocity helped him post a 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings this year. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider/changeup combination and throws strikes with all three, though on the down side he'll turn 23 in August and might be ticketed for relief. He joins Nwogu and Warren as being in play at #102 and #132.
LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson (hometown: Howell): Weatherly grew up in Howell, roughly halfway between Detroit and Lansing on I-96, but headed south to Clemson for college. He was a well-known recruit, but command issues kept him from really succeeding over his first two years with the Tigers. He still struggled to throw strikes in 2020, walking 14 in 22.2 innings, but he posted a 0.79 ERA and struck out 43 in that span and leapt up draft boards. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but his bread and butter is an exceptional slider that's among the best left handed breaking balls in the class. His command could push him to the bullpen if he doesn't start throwing more strikes, but even small improvements could make him a very effective starter. If the Tigers are going to grab him, he probably makes the most sense at pick #102 if he's still available.
OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (hometown: Temperance): We'll finish off with Joey Wiemer, who grew up in Temperance, just over the border from Toledo, Ohio. He headed down I-75 for school, and he's been a bit of a conundrum for scouts ever since. Standing 6'5" with long arms, long legs, and long hair, he's hard to miss on the baseball field. He sets up with an even more outlandish batting stance with lots of hand movement and bat wiggle, and it has contributed to an unremarkable .264/.379/.408 career line with twelve home runs and 35 stolen bases over 122 games for the Bearcats. He's shown pretty good plate discipline despite everything going on in his stance and swing, and the hope is that pro coaching could help him leap forward and reach his potential. He makes most sense at pick #132.
The Tigers' Position
Having to decide between two or more great players at 1-1 is a great problem to have. The current state of the system is very pitching-heavy, led by a "big three" of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal, with Mize having been the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. Now the MLB draft is very different from its NFL and NBA counterparts for a lot of reasons, but perhaps the biggest is this: you don't draft for need. If the Tigers believed the best player available was a pitcher like Asa Lacy or Emerson Hancock, they absolutely should have drafted one of the two, regardless of how pitching-heavy the system was. But the good news for the Tigers is that Torkelson and Martin are generally considered better players than Lacy and Hancock, so they can fill easily a need while still taking the best player available.
The Case for Spencer Torkelson
Position: 1B. 2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 15/31 K/BB.
My original profile written here
Spencer Torkelson has the best bat in the class, period. Over two-plus years at Arizona State, he cracked 54 home runs while slashing .337/.463/.729 with more walks (110) than strikeouts (104) across 129 games. The power is double plus, playing to all fields, against velocity and against good offspeed stuff, and with wood bats. The contact ability is plus as well, as Torkelson is adept at recognizing offspeed pitches, getting the barrel to the ball, and keeping his strikeouts down. There is no question that he is going to hit and hit for power in pro ball and in the majors. To boot, he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until August.
While Austin Martin is a no-doubt future plus hitter, Torkelson's bat is better. The quickest, easiest, and most robust way to get ROI on your top prospect is for him to hit, and Torkelson will do that. Martin is going to provide more defensive value, especially if he can stick at shortstop, but sometimes you just have to avoid the urge to get too cute and check all the boxes. There is a generational power prospect right there for the taking; just do it.
The Case for Austin Martin
Position: IF/OF. 2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 2/10 K/BB, 3 SB.
My original profile written here
Torkelson doesn't have a monopoly on the whole "being a special hitter" thing. Martin cut his strikeout rate from 16.8% as a freshman to 10.5% as a sophomore to a minuscule 2.9% as a junior – just two K's in sixteen games. Typically, that kind of contact is reserved for slap hitters or players who otherwise just kind of spray line drives around the field with little hope for double digit home run totals, but Martin doesn't fit that profile. He is a legitimate impact hitter who doesn't settle for weak contact, driving the ball with authority to all fields and over fences. He's hit 13 home runs in 81 games since the start of 2019, all while slashing .389/.490/.614 with just 36 strikeouts. While he doesn't project to be a true power hitter and certainly not Torkelson-esque in home run output, he should be good for anywhere from 15-25 home runs annually, all while putting up high on-base percentages in the .400 range. Alex Bregman had a remarkably similar profile in college, and he hit 41 home runs in 2019.
Martin is a hitting machine while also providing significantly more defensive value than Torkelson. Having watched Martin play various positions around the diamond, scouts have seen plenty to imply he could be an above average defender at shortstop. He has been surrounded by better defenders throughout his career, so he hasn't had the chance to prove it, but regardless, Martin will be providing value on both sides of the ball. Martin is the more well-rounded player, with a real chance of providing just as much offensive value as Torkelson with defense to boot. Don't let Torkelson's power distract from the fact that Martin is a special hitter who will have no trouble putting up big numbers against major league pitching with some speed to boot.
Other Options
LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M: The best pitcher in the class, Lacy is 14-5 with a 2.07 ERA and a 224/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings in his career at Texas A&M. He's big, he's mean, and he's left handed, which helps make his nasty four pitch mix play up with improving command to boot. Out of all the other options beyond Torkelson and Martin, Lacy seems like the "frontrunner among the dark horses" to go first overall. While that probably doesn't mean much given that the Tigers seem to be locking in on Tork, it is a testament to Lacy's immense upside combined with very little risk. Full profile here.
2B Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State: There are some that would argue that the only difference between Nick Gonzales and Austin Martin, at least offensively, is who they've played against. He is a career .399/.502/.747 hitter with 37 home runs and more walks (89) than strikeouts (79) in 128 games at New Mexico State. He hit .432/.532/.773 in 2019 then .448/.610/1.155 in 2020, and he also won the Cape Cod League MVP to prove his bat was for real. Still, the fact that he hasn't proved it day in and day out against SEC competition like Martin has, plus slightly worse defense, means that Martin remains a little bit ahead. His most likely landing spots are either the Royals at #4 or the Blue Jays at #5. Full profile here.
RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia: Hancock entered the 2020 season as an early favorite to go first overall, drawing comparisons to 2018 first overall pick Casey Mize after putting up a 1.99 ERA as a sophomore. His best attribute is his command, which helps his very good four pitch arsenal play up significantly. Not just a finesse pitcher, Hancock can hit 99 and all three of his offspeed pitches flash plus, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile. However, while the players listed above continued to push their stock forward this year, Hancock remained more or less in the same spot after a couple of up-and-down outings against Richmond and Georgia Tech, and some question his lack of a true, wipeout offspeed pitch. For that reason, he has fallen just behind Lacy, and he is perhaps equally likely to end up going anywhere from fourth to seventh overall. Full profile here.
OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS [FL]: Veen has steadily risen throughout the past calendar year, going from a fringe first rounder to a potential top ten pick to now having his name discussed as high as #4 to the Royals. The top high school prospect in the class, Veen has tremendous power projection in his 6'4" frame, with a beautiful left handed swing that figures to tap every bit of it without selling out. While he has shown some minor swing and miss concerns, they're not a huge deal and Veen's advanced plate discipline gives plenty of hope that they will never be an issue. Still, the college bats are much more proven than Veen and he would be a stretch for the Tigers at 1-1. Full profile here.
Michiganders for the Later Rounds
It's always fun to see guys go to their hometown team, and while no Michiganders are in the running for the first round at all (the closest geographically are Ed Howard of Chicago and Dillon Dingler of Massillon, Ohio), there is a lot of talent available for their later picks.
RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (hometown: Portage): Criswell is the top prospect among Michigan natives, a Portage native (near Kalamazoo) turned Wolverines starter. He holds a 2.88 ERA over three years in Ann Arbor and brings a solid three pitch mix highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a fading changeup. There have been some command questions and he hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, but with that three pitch mix, a 6'4" frame, and a track record in the Big Ten, he profiles as a solid second round arm. If he's still available for the Tigers' pick at #62, he could be a good fit. Full profile here.
OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (hometown: Ann Arbor): A graduate of Pioneer High School just down the road from Michigan's campus, Nwogu is actually on an academic scholarship for computer engineering, not an athletic one. That hasn't stopped him from being a career .334/.430/.545 hitter with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 125 games for the Wolverines, showing one of the better power/speed combinations in the class. He's big and athletic at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, though his swing is a bit awkward and he's fairly raw on both sides of the ball. He could come into play for the Tigers' picks at #102 and #132.
2B/C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (hometown: Southfield): A product of Groves High School between Southfield and Birmingham in the Detroit suburbs, Warren is a guy who has just hit and hit wherever he's gone. He slashed .363/.498/.571 with eight home runs as a sophomore at Central Michigan in 2019, then hit well on the Cape as well. He's actually kind of the opposite of Nwogu, as he doesn't have a ton of power or speed but he just steadily gets the job done. Warren is a very patient hitter who hits a lot of line drives and who could be a utility infielder or decent regular at the big league level. He also has a little bit of experience behind the plate, which could seriously boost his value if he ends up moving back there and sticking. Like Nwogu, he figures into picks #102 and #132 for Detroit.
RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (hometown: Cass City): The Thumb isn't known for producing a lot of baseball players, but Mason Erla has steadily risen from the small town of Cass City, about 50 miles northeast of Flint. A fairly unheralded recruit, he was solid but unspectacular over his first three years at Michigan State and went undrafted as a redshirt sophomore in 2019. That will change in 2020, as a huge uptick in his velocity helped him post a 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings this year. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider/changeup combination and throws strikes with all three, though on the down side he'll turn 23 in August and might be ticketed for relief. He joins Nwogu and Warren as being in play at #102 and #132.
LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson (hometown: Howell): Weatherly grew up in Howell, roughly halfway between Detroit and Lansing on I-96, but headed south to Clemson for college. He was a well-known recruit, but command issues kept him from really succeeding over his first two years with the Tigers. He still struggled to throw strikes in 2020, walking 14 in 22.2 innings, but he posted a 0.79 ERA and struck out 43 in that span and leapt up draft boards. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but his bread and butter is an exceptional slider that's among the best left handed breaking balls in the class. His command could push him to the bullpen if he doesn't start throwing more strikes, but even small improvements could make him a very effective starter. If the Tigers are going to grab him, he probably makes the most sense at pick #102 if he's still available.
OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (hometown: Temperance): We'll finish off with Joey Wiemer, who grew up in Temperance, just over the border from Toledo, Ohio. He headed down I-75 for school, and he's been a bit of a conundrum for scouts ever since. Standing 6'5" with long arms, long legs, and long hair, he's hard to miss on the baseball field. He sets up with an even more outlandish batting stance with lots of hand movement and bat wiggle, and it has contributed to an unremarkable .264/.379/.408 career line with twelve home runs and 35 stolen bases over 122 games for the Bearcats. He's shown pretty good plate discipline despite everything going on in his stance and swing, and the hope is that pro coaching could help him leap forward and reach his potential. He makes most sense at pick #132.
Sunday, March 15, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Austin Martin
SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt
Full index of draft profiles here
DoB: 3/23/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 3 SB, 2/10 K/BB in 16 games
Martin is the best pure hitter in the 2020 draft class, as evidenced by an excellent 36/50 strikeout to walk ratio against a tough SEC schedule over the last two seasons, averaging about one strikeout every other game. For me, the first name that jumps off the page as a comparison is Alex Bregman at LSU. In his junior year, Bregman hit .323/.412/.535 with nine home runs and a 22/36 strikeout to walk ratio, and while we won't get to see what Martin could have done, he probably would have had similar numbers with a bit better of a slash line. Like Bregman, Martin is a smaller right handed hitting SEC infielder that relies on exceptional feel for both the barrel and the strike zone to get by, and both employed quick swings that were more geared towards line drives than home runs. While I don't think Martin reaches 41 home runs in a season, I can see an otherwise similar career arc for the kid from Jacksonville.
Amateur pitching has yet to find a way to get Martin out. He hit .338/.452/.414 as a freshman before exploding for a .392/.486/.604 line as a sophomore, and he was up to .377/.507/.660 in 2020 before his season ended. He's a very deliberate hitter that is comfortable hitting in any count against even the toughest SEC Friday night aces, and when he decides to put a swing on the ball, he very rarely misses. Martin's quick hands and exceptional hand-eye coordination enable him to get his hands inside any pitch in any quadrant of the zone, which leads to a seemingly unlimited supply of line drive base hits that can turn into doubles and triples when they find the gap. He's not the biggest guy in the world at a listed 6', 185 pounds, but there is some over the fence power in there as well, and he could tap into 15-20 home runs per season or more at the major league level. As I mentioned earlier, Alex Bregman had a similar profile in college, and he hit 41 in 2020. And no, I don't think that was solely a product of knowing what was coming.
Defensively, Martin has played second base in deference to now-Pirates prospect Ethan Paul, so 2020 was supposed to be about showing what he could do at the premium position. While he never fully proved himself there, he's likely to be an impact defender somewhere, be that at shortstop, second base, third base, or even center field. All together, he projects for high on-base percentages in the .400 range while hitting 15-20 or more home runs per season, though more power is possible, and all that coming from a shortstop is an All Star projection. The only player in this draft that can challenge Martin's pure hit tool is Nick Gonzales, and none can challenge his combination of offensive and defensive ability. He and Spencer Torkelson seem like the favorites to go first overall, and he's a virtual lock for the top three picks.
Game footage
Full index of draft profiles here
DoB: 3/23/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 3 SB, 2/10 K/BB in 16 games
Martin is the best pure hitter in the 2020 draft class, as evidenced by an excellent 36/50 strikeout to walk ratio against a tough SEC schedule over the last two seasons, averaging about one strikeout every other game. For me, the first name that jumps off the page as a comparison is Alex Bregman at LSU. In his junior year, Bregman hit .323/.412/.535 with nine home runs and a 22/36 strikeout to walk ratio, and while we won't get to see what Martin could have done, he probably would have had similar numbers with a bit better of a slash line. Like Bregman, Martin is a smaller right handed hitting SEC infielder that relies on exceptional feel for both the barrel and the strike zone to get by, and both employed quick swings that were more geared towards line drives than home runs. While I don't think Martin reaches 41 home runs in a season, I can see an otherwise similar career arc for the kid from Jacksonville.
Amateur pitching has yet to find a way to get Martin out. He hit .338/.452/.414 as a freshman before exploding for a .392/.486/.604 line as a sophomore, and he was up to .377/.507/.660 in 2020 before his season ended. He's a very deliberate hitter that is comfortable hitting in any count against even the toughest SEC Friday night aces, and when he decides to put a swing on the ball, he very rarely misses. Martin's quick hands and exceptional hand-eye coordination enable him to get his hands inside any pitch in any quadrant of the zone, which leads to a seemingly unlimited supply of line drive base hits that can turn into doubles and triples when they find the gap. He's not the biggest guy in the world at a listed 6', 185 pounds, but there is some over the fence power in there as well, and he could tap into 15-20 home runs per season or more at the major league level. As I mentioned earlier, Alex Bregman had a similar profile in college, and he hit 41 in 2020. And no, I don't think that was solely a product of knowing what was coming.
Defensively, Martin has played second base in deference to now-Pirates prospect Ethan Paul, so 2020 was supposed to be about showing what he could do at the premium position. While he never fully proved himself there, he's likely to be an impact defender somewhere, be that at shortstop, second base, third base, or even center field. All together, he projects for high on-base percentages in the .400 range while hitting 15-20 or more home runs per season, though more power is possible, and all that coming from a shortstop is an All Star projection. The only player in this draft that can challenge Martin's pure hit tool is Nick Gonzales, and none can challenge his combination of offensive and defensive ability. He and Spencer Torkelson seem like the favorites to go first overall, and he's a virtual lock for the top three picks.
Game footage
Monday, February 10, 2020
2020 Draft Preview: Ten Prospects Who Could Go #1
The college baseball season is set to start on February 14th, while various high school leagues start around the same time. That means one thing for MLB fans – it's time to start thinking about the draft. The Detroit Tigers have the first overall pick for the second time in three seasons, two years after they selected right hander Casey Mize out of Auburn. I'm not big into the guessing game of who teams like or whether they might go under slot, but that being said, here are ten players that have a shot at hearing their name called first overall.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.
The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.
- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.
- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.
- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.
The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.
- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.
- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.
- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.
Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.
- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.
- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.
- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.
Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.
The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.
- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.
- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.
- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.
The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.
- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.
- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.
- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.
Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.
- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.
- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.
- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.
Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.
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