Juan Soto and the end of an era in Washington

By Zack Silverman

On Tuesday, August 2nd, Mike Rizzo and Mark Lerner dealt Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres for CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell, James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, Jarlin Susana, and Luke Voit, emphatically closing the book on the great 2010's Washington Nationals dynasty. It comes two and a half seasons before Soto is set to hit free agency, on the heels of a dramatic fall from grace for the franchise, and ahead of a likely sale of the team to new ownership. Barring a return via free agency in the 2024-2025 offseason, Juan Soto will now play the vast majority of what could be an inner-circle Hall of Fame career elsewhere, and in return, the Nationals brought in a massive haul of young players. This is a trade that will be remembered not for years, but for decades, and will forever be a defining moment in Washington Nationals history.

With Juan Soto out, the Nationals teams of the 2010's that resulted in a 2019 World Series championship are virtually all gone. Bryce Harper is in Philadelphia, Max Scherzer is in New York, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner are in Los Angeles, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton, and Howie Kendrick have retired, and Stephen Strasburg may never be the same pitcher he once was. Aside from Strasburg, the longest tenured players on the Nationals are Joe Ross (2015), Erick Fedde (2017), Adrian Sanchez (2017), and Victor Robles (2017) – every other player on the team joined in 2019 or later for their current stint. Those are a lot of words to say this trade ends a seismic shift in who the Washington Nationals are as a franchise, to the point where the players on the field represent a fundamentally different ball club. Loyalty means rooting for the name on the front of the jersey rather than the back, but it is a lot to take in regardless. Fans from Prince George's County down to the Hampton Roads and out to the Shenandoah have no choice but to start all over again and learn to fall in love with a new brand of Washington Nationals baseball.

You will never, ever replace a once-in-a-generation player like Juan Soto, which is why you don't see them dealt. All we can do is speculate, but with the impending sale of the team to new ownership, you have to imagine the most prominent suitors had a heavy hand in everything leading up to the trade. One line of thought would be that new ownership wanted to get as close to a clean financial slate as possible, which would mean not only trading Soto but getting rid of Patrick Corbin as well. Another would be that regardless of their intentions with Soto, they would at least want a shot to extend him, whether a deal ended up getting done or not. That's why you buy a sports franchise, right? But apparently, the opposite may have been the case – that new ownership wanted to avoid the massive PR hit that would come with not getting a deal done, and therefore being forced to trade one of the greatest players on the planet as one of their very first moves. Unfortunately, there is not much in this world billionaires care about more than PR, and if they can pin the deal on the Lerner family and throw their hands up to say "I would have extended him!" to save a little face, then that's where we are. So if that new ownership group says anything about Juan Soto when they do take over, don't let them off the hook so easily.

So that is quite enough about players who are no longer Nationals. In return, the Nationals picked up two major league ready players under the age of 24, two young outfielders that can't buy their own drinks yet, a teenage lottery ticket, and a big league first baseman to ensure Washington can put together at least something resembling a major league lineup until the younger guys are ready. It's a massive jolt to a farm system that has lagged way behind much of the rest of the league, giving them a top ten that even loaded farm systems would envy. The rest of the farm system? Well that's a story we'll get to later, but this is a good start.

We'll start with James Wood, in my opinion easily the best player coming back to Washington. Wood is actually a DMV native, hailing from the far northern suburb of Olney in Montgomery County, Maryland. He played his high school ball at the IMG Academy in Florida, where he teamed up with 2022 Nationals first round pick Elijah Green in the most fearsome outfield in the country. He generated top ten buzz early in the 2021 draft cycle, but struggled during his senior year and fell to the Padres in the second round, where he signed for a massive bonus. However, concerns about his hit tool turned out to be premature, as he has done nothing but rip up low minors pitching since signing. Between the Padres' ACL team and Low A Elsinore, he's slashing .336/.447/.556 with 13 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a very solid 81/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games, including a .337/.453/.601 line at Low A. Wood shows off massive power from the left side, a product of his equally massive 6'7", 240 pound frame and a quick, simple swing. He has learned that he does not need to do too much to tap that power, and his disciplined approach has translated much better than expected to professional pitching. Combine that bat with surprising athleticism given his massive size, which could help him stick in center field, and you have a potential superstar in the making. Wood only turns 20 in September and has just fifty games of full season ball under his belt, so he has a very long way to go, but if anybody is going to lessen the sting of losing Juan Soto ten years down the line, it will probably be him.

Next up is the other outfielder in the deal, Robert Hassell. Hassell played his high school ball at Independence High School in the southern suburbs of Nashville, earning a first round selection in 2020 at the eighth overall pick. After hitting .302/.393/.470 in his first pro season, he has spent the entire 2022 season at High A Fort Wayne and was slashing .299/.379/.467 with ten home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 66/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at the time of the trade. He is an extremely professional hitter that makes a ton of hard, line drive contact while taking his walks to post high on-base percentages. While he's definitely a hit-over-power bat, he does have some pop and hits a high enough volume of hard hit balls to run into his fair share of home runs. The exit velocities are a bit pedestrian for what you'd look for in a future superstar, but if he can post close to .400 on-base percentages at the MLB level like he's capable, it may not matter. I'd put the ultimate projection around 15-20 home runs a year. In addition to the bat, he's a very solid defender that will have a chance to try to stick in center field, just like Wood, and it will be interesting to see the two of them battle with Jeremy De La Rosa, Elijah Green, and Cristhian Vaquero to see who gets that position long term (though Green and Vaquero are significantly faster). The whole package is somewhat similar to a left handed version of where Victor Robles stood as a prospect five years ago, albeit with a bit less speed and defense. I will let you all decide whether that is a good thing or a bad thing.

CJ Abrams will be the first young player in this deal to play for the Nationals. The sixth overall pick of the 2019 draft out of Blessed Trinity High School in the Atlanta area, Abrams flew through the minors and has split 2022 between AAA El Paso and the Padres, hitting .314/.364/.507 in 30 games for the former and .232/.285/.320 in 46 games for the latter. Upon acquiring him, the Nationals immediately sent him down to AAA Rochester, but the expectation is that he'll be back up well before the end of the season. Abrams will be 21 for the remainder of the season, so there's no rush. He's an exceptional athlete that stands out most for his plus-plus speed, which helps him play a very strong shortstop that should only continue to get better with more seasoning. As you might expect given that he reached the majors well before his 22nd birthday, Abrams took to pro pitching very smoothly and has never struggled as he's moved up the latter, with very strong feel for the barrel that has helped him do damage at every stop. He continued to make a ton of contact in his 46 game stint with the Padres, though he's rarely walked throughout his career simply because he doesn't let counts get too deep. There is some wiry strength in his 6'2" frame, but ultimately I don't expect him to top out at more than 10-15 home runs a year. Down at AAA and especially this coming offseason, the Nationals will likely design his conditioning program to help him finish filling out that frame so that he can produce a little more impact beyond singles and line drives in the gap. At his ceiling, he could be a similar all-around player to a left handed Trea Turner, albeit with significantly less power. If not, he has a good shot to end up a solid, long term answer for the Nationals at shortstop that can get on base, steal a ton of bases, and hit plenty of doubles and triples.

MacKenzie Gore is probably the most famous name in this trade, as he has a long history on prospect lists. Gore was the third overall pick in the 2017 draft out of Whiteville High School in rural southeastern North Carolina, giving the Nationals a top ten pick from the 2017, 2019, and 2020 drafts in this trade. He shot to stardom in the Padres system and in 2019, where he posted a 1.69 ERA and a 135/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 innings between High A and AA. At that time he was considered one of the top prospects in baseball, but the road has been bumpier since then. The pandemic interrupted his ascent and blister issues that nagged him early in his career returned in 2021, while his mechanics began to lose consistency as well. He only threw 50.1 innings last year and fell considerably from his 2019 status, but 2022 has been better. He made his MLB debut in April and held a 1.50 ERA and a 57/17 strikeout to walk ratio through early June, but has struggled mightily since then and went down with elbow soreness shortly before the deadline. That elbow issue could explain why his numbers suddenly took a turn, but the Nationals front office doesn't seem too concerned that this will be a major issue going forward. At his best, Gore has a true ace-caliber four pitch mix. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and gets up to around 98, while his upper 80's slider is a power sweeper that misses a ton of bats, his upper 70's curveball gives a deeper, sweeping look, and his changeup keeps hitters off balance. Overall, it's a very traditional profile, which Mike Rizzo loves. Once he gets back on the mound, there's a lot of directions he could go. Washington will hope to get him consistent innings free of injury-related distractions, in which case he could become a legitimate #2 starter. Or he could go down the path of Luis Severino, showing flashes of dominance while also spending significant amounts of time on injured lists. Then of course, there's always the middle ground where his stuff flattens out a little bit with wear and tear and he winds up a solid #4 starter that gives you a reliable arm but doesn't necessarily come to dominate.

Then of course we have Jarlin Susana, the teenage mystery man that the Padres apparently only included after the Nationals added Josh Bell to the deal. Signed for $1.7 million out of the Dominican Republic in January, he has spent the season in rookie ball and has a 2.45 ERA and a 44/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.1 innings. Susana is a huge, 6'6" righty that is already physically developed, bringing in ridiculous arm strength. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has touched as high as 102, coming in with steep downhill plane that from a high slot. He rips off a vicious slider that can creep up over 90, while his curveball and changeup are a bit less consistent. Both breaking balls, especially the curve, could use to add a little more bite but he has time to figure that out. A big guy that throws with some effort, he does a good job of controlling the strike zone given his age and explosive stuff, and he has a chance to work his way up as a potential mid-rotation starter. However, he is a long, long way away from the majors and will need considerable development to stick in the rotation.

Lastly, the lone established major leaguer in the deal is Luke Voit. Eric Hosmer was originally slated to come to DC, but he used his no trade clause to stay out of the cellar of the National League East and will instead head to Boston. Voit rose to fame as the Yankees' power hitting first baseman from 2018-2020, though his production has fallen off a bit over the past couple of seasons and in 2022 he's slashing .225/.317/.416 with 13 home runs in 82 games. Those aren't numbers a playoff team can afford from a first baseman in a starting role, but he may just be the best hitter in a decimated Nationals lineup that will struggle to put up runs for the rest of the season. In that sense, he's really a replacement for Josh Bell just so the team is at least somewhat close to watchable. He's under team control through the 2024 season, which means the Nationals could shop him again at any point until then and look to bring back some prospect talent, or they could find a way to get him back to his 2018-2020 form and keep him around as a potential long term piece in a best case scenario. The difference between now and then is that he's seeing more offspeed stuff and has been more prone to chasing pitches out of the zone or getting out in front and getting under them, so working on handling that offspeed stuff should be an area of emphasis to reclaim his former glory.

So like I mentioned, I see this as a light return for Soto, but my bigger issue lies in player development. The Nationals are very, very traditional in their talent evaluation and player development, which puts them way behind the times and more than anything is why the system plummeted to the worst in baseball before the 2021 trade deadline. They've made incremental improvements lately, including increasing the size of their player development staff and finally adding Hawkeye tracking technology to their stadiums, but to this point it has not born fruit. The players in this deal, aside from James Wood, have extremely traditional profiles with easily identifiable strengths and weaknesses. That means if anything, they're likely overvalued in the market, not undervalued. Don't get me wrong, I think most of these kids even aside from Wood will turn into very good ballplayers, but I would have liked to have seen Mike Rizzo get more creative. For example, the Yankees just brought back Clayton Beeter for Joey Gallo despite poor surface numbers, but his wicked raw stuff and overall unique traits as a pitcher make him a very intriguing, potentially undervalued arm. Rizzo would never buy low on hidden gems like that, rather opting for the traditional profiles like I explained above.

I saw reports about the Nationals having a top eight or top five farm system right now, and unfortunately I wholly disagree. The top of the system is now packed, which is awesome. In addition to the names above, guys like Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, and Luis Garcia are ready to form a longtime core at the major league level, while Rizzo has stockpiled a very interesting group of young bats in the low minors headlined by Elijah Green, Jeremy De La Rosa, Brady House, Sammy Infante, TJ White, Cristhian Vaquero, Roismar Quintana, and Brenner Cox. But very little of that offensive talent has worked its way to the upper minors just yet, and the pitching depth is just non-existent in a system where Rizzo still looks for traditional, big conference performers with refined, if ordinary, arsenals. He's not uncovering hidden gems in the middle rounds, where the team often selects Jacob Young's with traditional profiles rather than Nick Nastrini's that just need you to get a little creative. So as great as this system may look on a top twenty prospects list, the fundamental issues that have led to much of that improvement coming inorganically are still very much there and will limit the next competitive window if nothing changes.

I guess I ended this way-too-long article with some doom and gloom, and the truth is that I'm not happy with the direction of this team under Mike Rizzo. But there is certainly room for optimism. The Nationals now have a real farm system for the first time in years. That group of young hitters I mentioned a paragraph above – I'm actually very interested in them and I think it's a legitimate group. Young hitters are often the best place to invest. I also mentioned that the team finally seems to be getting serious about player development. I wasn't happy with their draft class this year outside of the first pick, Elijah Green, but I did love that Green pick. A future lineup featuring three of Green, Wood, Hassell, De La Rosa, Vaquero, Quintana, and Daylen Lile in the outfield sounds great to me. They've got Ruiz behind the plate and Israel Pineda looks like a viable backup option long term. Around the infield, names like Abrams, Garcia, House, Infante, and Jake Alu look at least moderately interesting if not quite as exciting as the outfield group. And I haven't mentioned the pitchers by name, but between Gray, Gore, Susana, Cade Cavalli, Cole Henry, Rodney Theophile, Mitchell Parker, and Jackson Rutledge, we should find at least a couple long term starting pitchers and the bullpen group of Matt Cronin, Zach Brzykcy, Gerardo Carrillo, and Jose Ferrer should produce at least one long term piece in addition to whoever falls out of the rotation. It's going to take a long time, perhaps until around the middle of the decade, but at least the Soto band-aid is now off and things can start to move full steam ahead.

2021 MLB Draft Review: San Diego Padres

Full list of draftees

The Padres stayed on brand with this draft, picking up two high school position players (both Maryland natives) with their first two picks. Some around the industry are a bit surprised by this draft, with first rounder Jackson Merrill being a bit of an unknown and second rounder James Wood (who earned $800K more) coming off a rough spring. Indeed, it will probably be boom or bust between these two kids, who could make AJ Preller look either really smart or foolhardy in a few years. After spending $4.4 million on those two kids, the Padres moved to the college ranks to save some money, picking up three consecutive pitchers who are already 22 or older, and really leaning on college players the rest of the way out. Kevin Kopps is of course the most interesting pick as the 24 year old Golden Spikes winner, while my favorite could end up being Ryan Bergert if he comes back healthy from Tommy John surgery.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-27: SS Jackson Merrill, Severna Park HS [MD]. My rank: #72.
This pick surprised many outside the industry, as Jackson Merrill was ranked #79 on MLB Pipeline and #102 on Baseball America. He was ranked #72 on my board and this will be a money saving pick, but don't think this was a reach. Merrill was a true pop-up prospect this spring, coming out for his senior season with a changed body and the results followed and then some. In addition to hitting for significantly more power than he has in the past, the Annapolis-area product also hit everything in sight, getting really nice leverage and loft from his now-6'2" frame and getting to that power consistently. He projects to stay on the right side of the infield with a strong arm, and given that the Padres are drafting him here in the first round, they probably think he'll be at least an average defender at shortstop. That remains to be seen, as does his ability to hit against higher-level pitching, as his bat is pretty untested against advanced competition. Merrill is committed to Kentucky but signed for $1.8 million, which was about $770,000 below the slot value of $2.57 million and about the value of the 41st pick.

2-62: OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #36.
I don't think I realized how tough of a spring James Wood had until after the draft, hence the high ranking. Wood, like Merrill, is from Maryland, but he transferred down to the IMG Academy in Florida to build his draft stock, which ultimately did not happen this spring. At his best over the summer, the 6'6" slugger showed massive raw power from the left side of the plate to go along with a patient approach that earned him comparisons to Zac Veen from last year's class. In fact, heading into the spring, many thought he had a chance to be drafted in the same range (Veen went ninth overall to the Rockies). The power was still there this spring, but Wood swung and missed significantly more often than scouts wanted to see, raising questions as to whether he could tap his power against pro pitching. He's a big guy with long legs and long arms and he starts with his hands low, something which wasn't an issue over the summer but could have contributed to making things difficult in 2021. Wood tweaked his setup at times as well, but to no avail. The Padres are buying into his massive upside here in the second round, and his presently above average speed also gives him an additional way to impact the game. He signed for $2.6 million, which was more than double the slot value of $1.1 million and in fact more than what Merrill signed for. $2.6 million would be roughly slot value for the 27th pick.

CBB-71: LHP Robert Gasser, Houston. My rank: #81.
Robert Gasser has had a meteoric rise to stardom after a winding road to get there. A Sacramento-area native, he began his career at New Mexico, moved on to Delta College back in California, then to the University of Houston, where he got knocked around in brief action in 2020. Things were different right from the start in 2021, however, after he followed strong starts against Texas Southern and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to match Tigers comp pick and Longhorn ace Ty Madden pitch for pitch in his third start. By the end of the season, Gasser had a 2.63 ERA and a strong 105/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.2 innings, including double digit strikeout performances against Texas State, Oklahoma, Memphis, and Tulane. He's a 6'1" lefty with a fastball that has ticked into the low 90's, touching 96, working in an above average slider that dives across the plate and a fading changeup. Gasser doesn't have pinpoint command but he locates his pitches well to both sides of the plate, and his low arm slot and crossfire action put some deception on his pitches. It's not the world's highest ceiling, but he has a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter, with a fallback option as a left handed reliever that can combine power stuff with a little bit of funk. Despite already having turned 22, he signed for full slot value at $884,200.

3-99: RHP Kevin Kopps, Arkansas. My rank: #188.
If you follow college baseball, you know all about Kevin Kopps. If you don't then you have a lot to catch up on. Kopps, like Gasser, has taken a long road to stardom, redshirting his freshman year in 2016 before serving as a solid if unspectacular reliever for Arkansas during his middle seasons (3.24 ERA, 86/30 K/BB in 86 IP). Those numbers were sandwiched around Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2018 season, then Kopps struggled to an 8.18 ERA in the shortened 2020 season. Returning in 2021 for his redshirt-redshirt senior season, the switch flipped on. The Houston-area native went 12-1 with a 0.90 ERA and a 131/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings, running a strikeout rate near 40% against some of the best competition in college baseball. Despite often throwing three or four innings per relief appearance, he didn't allow more than one run in any single game until his last one of the season, in which he made his very first start of the season against a red hot NC State team on short rest and allowed three over eight innings in what ended up being Arkansas' final game. The 2021 Golden Spikes winner harkens back to Mariano Rivera a bit with his tendency to work off one pitch – a cutter/slider hybrid that can move along the spectrum. Kopps has legitimate 80 grade feel for the pitch, showing the ability to tighten it up, allow it to break with more depth at other times, and locating it with precision to all four quadrants of the zone. Flip on any one of his appearances this season and you would see very disciplined SEC hitters flailing at it, rarely putting good swings on the pitch. The 6' righty also shows a low 90's fastball that functions as average and a below average curve and changeup, but the cutter/slider is his bread and butter. Despite throwing seventeen innings in just two weeks during the NCAA Tournament (and allowing just three runs while striking out nineteen), Kopps almost certainly profiles as a reliever in pro ball due to his lack of a second above average pitch, but he says he prefers the "chaos" of relief work anyways as opposed to getting into a routine as a starter. Already 24 years old, he was the second oldest player taken in the entire draft behind White Sox seventh rounder Theo Denlinger (25), but he likely won't pitch in the majors this year due to his heavy workload in Fayetteville. Once the Padres get him rested up and on their throwing program, though, he could be up pretty quickly in 2022. Slot value is $587,400, but I doubt his bonus will come close to that.

4-129: LHP Jackson Wolf, West Virginia. Unranked.
Another pick, another senior sign. Jackson Wolf, unlike Gasser or Kopps, was a well-known name for the 2020 class after posting a 1.05 ERA and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings in the shortened season, but he went undrafted and returned to Morgantown. This year, he did everything that was expected of him, posting a 3.03 ERA and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 innings, but it wasn't quite an Andrew Abbott-esque or Matt Mikulski-esque performance to increase his stock significantly. He's a 6'7" lefty, which will immediately grab your attention, and he fills up the strike zone with three pitches. Wolf's fastball sits around 90, a slight tick above where it was last year, and can scrape the mid 90's at its best, but it plays up due to his excellent extension that really does make a difference. His slider is slurvy and his changeup is average at best, but the three pitches work well off each other and he's proven durable so far. He throws strikes, but it's not pinpoint command – just enough to make it all work. If the Columbus-area native is to remain a starter, he'll need to tighten up his offspeed pitches, but he more likely profiles as a reliever who can run that fastball up another tick or two and hopefully sharpen that slider. Slot value is $438,700, but I don't think he gets close to that.

5-160: 2B Max Ferguson, Tennessee. My rank: #179.
It was a tough season for Max Ferguson. A high school classmate of Alabama and now Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (a year older), in addition to Florida star and likely high 2022 pick Hunter Barco (a year younger), he had an unremarkable freshman season but slashed .333/.462/.524 in the shortened 2020 season, leading to some optimism that he could be a high pick in 2021. Instead, the Jacksonville native ended up at .253/.378/.461 with twelve home runs and a 71/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games with a hitter-friendly home park, albeit against a tough SEC schedule. So what happened? Ferguson is a skinny kid at a listed 6'1", 180 pounds, and in that strong 2020 season he was noted as a strong contact hitter who might not hit for much impact in pro ball. So in 2021, he tried to show that impact by yanking home runs to the pull side and lifting the ball, and it worked to a degree with a strong .208 ISO (SLG - AVG), but it also came with an elevated 22.8% strikeout rate (up from 15% over his first two seasons). For a hitter who didn't quite sell the power, that's a tough look, and he'll likely need to go back to being hit over power in pro ball if he wants to succeed. The good news is Ferguson is a great athlete who shows strong bat to ball skills and barrel control when he's not trying to do too much, and with proper development he should be able to work his way back towards being a high on-base guy who can steal you a few bags (he has 28 in 114 career games at Tennessee). He fits at second base due to a below average arm, but could have the speed to handle center field. To me, it's a utility profile. He signed for full slot value at $324,100.

6-190: RHP Ryan Bergert, West Virginia. Unranked.
Four players were drafted out of West Virginia this year, and all four were pitchers going to NL West rivals – I didn't mention them in the Dodgers writeup, but Madison Jeffrey and Adam Tulloch went in the 15th and 17th rounds, respectively, to Los Angeles, while San Diego grabbed Jackson Wolf in the fourth and Ryan Bergert here in the sixth. I tabbed Bergert as a sleeper heading into the season, but unfortunately, he blew out his elbow and didn't pitch at all. Over his first two years in Morgantown, though, he was phenomenal – 2.30 ERA, 68/19 K/BB in 58.2 innings. His fastball sits in the low 90's, getting up to 94-95 at best, and playing up due to high spin rates. He also shows an inconsistent curveball that doesn't always have the finish he would like, but which should be an above average pitch with a bit more development, as well as an average slider. The 6'1" righty doesn't have much of a changeup this point, which will be a point of development in pro ball, and his command is average. He'll have to work his way back first, but once healthy, some tweaks here and there could make him a very solid rotation option. It's always hard to peg injured pitchers' signing bonus demands, and slot value sits at $251,100 here.

18-550: LHP Gage Jump, JSerra Catholic HS [CA]. My rank: #20.
With James Wood signing for $1.5 million above slot value, it's hard to see Gage Jump signing here, especially when he seemed dead set on heading to UCLA anyways. Jump, in my opinion, was the second best high school pitcher in the class behind only Jackson Jobe, who went third overall to the Tigers. He's an undersized lefty at 5'11", sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and getting up to 94-95. That fastball plays way up because he gets great extension, a low release, and high spin rates from that smaller frame, putting exceptional ride on the ball and missing plenty of bats. His top to bottom curveball plays extremely well off his fastball, and he adds an above average slider as well. Jump is a competitor that fills up the strike zone consistently, earning comps to a left handed Jack Leiter, and he could find himself in a similar position after three years in Westwood. He attended high school not far from San Diego, just an hour or so north of PETCO in San Juan Capistrano.

20-610: RHP Chase Burns, Beech HS [TN]. My rank: #84.
This is another one that almost certainly won't sign. Chase Burns is one of the hardest throwers in the prep class, touching triple digits with his fastball and usually sitting in the mid 90's, and it gets exceptional spin and ride (like Jump, but faster) that make it a plus-plus pitch when it's located. Burns also adds an inconsistent curve that flashes plus 12-6 movement at its best, and his slider is a bit shorter but flashes plus as well with late bite. His changeup is inconsistent as well, but has its moments. The problem here is that his delivery is somewhat rigid, which combined with the poor history of hard throwing high schoolers, makes it a very scary profile. I would like to see the Nashville-area native head to Tennessee, which it looks like is going to happen, to prove his durability as a starting pitcher before jumping on board. If he does hold up over three years in Knoxville, we're looking at a huge ceiling for the 6'4" righty.

2021 MLB Draft: A Hometown Pick for Each AL/NL East Team

I'm personally just as interested in maps as I am in the MLB Draft, so naturally I really like it when players go to their hometown team. Seeing Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia Beach, VA) on the Nationals, Justin Turner (Lakewood, CA) on the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove (La Mesa, CA) on the Padres, etc. makes me happy. Last year, the Cubs drafted Chicago native Ed Howard in the first round, which I thought was really cool. Obviously, picking the hometown guy usually plays a negligible part in the selection process, but it's still fun to think about. So, if teams were drafting to make me happy, what hometown players could they target early in the draft? Note, I'll usually think in terms of the first pick if possible, but if necessary I'll find targets for the second or third pick (especially in the "other options" section). I'll be writing three articles on this, starting with the AL and NL East (Central can be found here and West can be found here). Note this is NOT a mock draft – it's just for fun and I don't actually think many of these will happen. They're just fun to think about. 

Atlanta Braves: C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS, Kennesaw, GA
Let's be honest, the Braves will never, ever, ever have trouble finding players in their own backyard. The Atlanta area is one of the top metros for baseball talent in the entire country, and without another team within 350 miles, much of the entire South can be considered "Braves country." I elected to go with North Cobb star Harry Ford at pick #24, who goes to school just 15 miles northwest of Truist Park in Kennesaw. He's an ultra-athletic catcher, something you don't hear often. Ford shows the potential for plus raw power from the right side, a product of the tremendous torque in his swing despite a smaller 5'10" frame. He also shows strong hitting ability, and at peak could be one of the better hitting catchers in the country. With plus speed, he could also play second base or center field. He will have the ability to stick back behind the plate if his drafting team chooses to keep him back there with his cat-like agility. Committed to Georgia Tech, he's an ATL lifer.
Other options: RHP Jonathan Cannon (Georgia via Alpharetta, GA), LHP Ryan Webb (Georgia via Roswell, GA), RHP Bubba Chandler (North Oconee HS, Bogart, GA), SS Ryan Bliss (Auburn via LaGrange, GA), SS Michael Braswell (Campbell HS, Smyrna, GA)

Baltimore Orioles: OF James Wood, IMG Academy, FL (hometown: Olney, MD)
The Orioles pick at fifth overall, which might be just a little rich for James Wood at this point, but last year they under-slotted Heston Kjerstad overall and Wood could be an under-slot candidate at pick #5. Though he attends the IMG Academy outside of Tampa, Florida, Wood grew up in Olney about 25 miles southwest of Camden Yards. He brings absolutely tremendous raw power from the left side, a product of his 6'6" frame, brute strength, quick hands, and great leverage. Not just a pure bruiser, he brings strong feel for the barrel as well with a patient approach and a good eye at the plate. He runs very well for his size and should be an asset in right field. Once he reaches Camden, you could see him peppering Eutaw Street with plenty of home runs. He is committed to Mississippi State.
Other options: LHP Mason Albright (IMG Academy, FL via Thurmont, MD), SS Jose Torres (NC State via Baltimore, MD), 3B Zack Gelof (Virginia via Lewes, DE), LHP Peter Heubeck (Gilman HS, Baltimore, MD), 1B Maxwell Costes (Maryland via Baltimore, MD)

Boston Red Sox: OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (hometown: Lexington, MA)
In most years, this would be a difficult exercise, and I'd be looking for a second or third rounder to give the Red Sox. In this case, we have numerous options, though I did have to stretch a bit to get them a New Englander at pick #4. Sal Frelick probably fits better about five to ten picks later, but the Red Sox did under-slot Nick Yorke last year so this wouldn't be entirely out of the question. Frelick isn't a big guy at a listed 5'9", but his game is as loud as it gets. He shows a plus hit tool that enables him to not only make extremely consistent contact in the zone, but also easily spoil and even put in play bad pitches outside the zone. When he does connect, the Lexington native shows real power that should be at least average in pro ball. He's also a plus runner with a solid arm, and he plays the game with plenty of energy. Also noted as one of the best athletes in the class, he can handle center field or even second base if necessary. It's really a down year for college bats, so Frelick's strong 2021 production has pushed him near the very top of the list.
Other options: 2B Cody Morissette (Boston College via Exeter, NH), OF Joshua Baez (Dexter-Southfield HS, Brookline, MA), RHP Sean Burke (Maryland via Sutton, MA), LHP Steven Hajjar (Michigan via North Andover, MA), RHP Mike Vasil (Virginia via Wellesley, MA)

Miami Marlins: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami (hometown: Miami, FL)
Honestly, Adrian Del Castillo probably profiles much better with an AL team with a DH, but the DH is (hopefully) coming to the NL soon so we can give him to the Marlins at the sixteenth pick. Del Castillo is a Miami lifer who attended Gulliver Prep HS before heading a few blocks down Dixie Highway to The U, where he has blossomed into one of the best college bats in the country. Standing 5'11", he has elite feel for the strike zone and the barrel with possibly the most pro-ready bat in the class, just feasting on high-level ACC pitching throughout his career. He also packs a punch from the left side, showing at least average power if not above average, though to this point it's been just a little underwhelming in 2021. Del Castillo has the feel to catch and has worked hard to stick back there, but to this point, he lacks the athleticism or arm strength to be more than a fringy defender back there. If he has to move off the position, he's a little short for first base and a little slow for the outfield, hence why he looks better for a team with a DH.
Other options: RHP Andrew Painter (Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, FL), RHP Irving Carter (Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, FL), C Rene Lastres (Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, FL), OF Jay Allen (John Carroll Catholic HS, Fort Pierce, FL), OF Isaiah Thomas (Vanderbilt via Palm Beach Gardens, FL)

New York Mets/Yankees
Hitter: C Henry Davis, Louisville (hometown: Bedford, NY)
Rather than try to divvy up New York and New Jersey between Yankees and Mets country, we're just going to do them together giving a hitter and a pitcher. Henry Davis certainly won't be around when the Yankees pick at #20, and heck, the Mets would probably be ecstatic if he lasted until the tenth pick for them. It's an unlikely scenario, but we can dream, right? At Louisville, Davis has turned himself into arguably the top college bat in the class, absolutely tearing through ACC pitching as a sophomore (.372/.481/.698) and even moreso as a junior, where he's currently flirting with a .400 batting average and a .500 on-base percentage with plenty of power to boot. A product of Fox Lane High School in northern Westchester County, he shows plus raw power to go with a plus hit tool from the right side, which in layman's terms means he will be a middle-of-the-order threat in the big leagues. It's a simple, leveraged swing from a crouched stance in which he explodes out to the ball, yet remains completely under control with elite feel for the barrel. On defense, he possesses a cannon arm that can completely shut down the running game, while his glove is probably his only unremarkable tool (speed aside) at merely average. I don't expect him to be around for the Mets at pick #10.
Other options: C Joe Mack (Williamsville East HS, Williamsville, NY), SS Danny Serretti (UNC via Berkeley Heights, NJ), C Pat Winkel (Connecticut via Orange, CT)
Pitcher: LHP Matt Mikulski, Fordham (hometown: Mohegan Lake, NY)
If Henry Davis is unlikely to reach the Mets at pick #10, then Jack Leiter (Summit, NJ) is downright impossible. We could have talked Chase Petty (Linwood, NJ) here, but that's a little bit too far south to call it a "hometown" pick. For that reason, we'll go a little deeper and throw out the possibility of Matt Mikulski, a rising arm for Fordham. Mikulski actually grew up in the same area as Davis in northern Westchester County, though instead of leaving the region entirely for college, he stayed close to home and came down I-87 to Fordham. There, he steadily raised his stock for three years before exploding as a senior this year, absolutely blowing away A-10 competition to rocket himself into Day One consideration. He likely won't be in play for either the Mets or Yankees in the first round, but if the Mets or Yankees want to save some money at pick #46 or #55, respectively, he could be their guy. Mikulski is a 6'2" lefty who has seen everything tick up half a grade this year, with his fastball jumping up into the upper 90's at times and settling in the mid 90's for innings at a time. His curveball and slider are both out pitches at their best, and he does add a changeup as well. The command has steadily improved from below average to solid average, which makes scouts much more confident he'll be a starter at the next level. The Mohegan Lake native's stock has a ton of helium right now, and a few weeks from now, the second round could look much more likely than the third.
Other options: RHP Shane Panzini (Red Bank Catholic HS, Red Bank, NJ), RHP Jacob Steinmetz (Elev8 Academy, FL via Woodmere, NY), RHP Pierce Coppola (Verona HS, Verona, NJ), RHP Chase Petty (Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, NJ), LHP Justin Fall (Arizona State via Toms River, NJ)

Philadelphia Phillies: OF Benny Montgomery, Red Land HS, Lewisberry, PA
Eastern Pennsylvania/Southern New Jersey has one of its best crops of talent in a long time, so there are numerous local players who could end up in red Philly pinstripes either at pick #13, #49, or #84. We'll look at Harrisburg-area high schooler Benny Montgomery, who brings some of the loudest tools in the prep class. Montgomery brings huge raw power from the right side, producing elite exit velocities that make scouts sit up. Additionally, his plus-plus speed makes him an asset on both sides of the ball, and a plus arm as well could help him win some Gold Gloves in the outfield with a little refinement. For now, the hit tool is a little iffy, as Montgomery has a choppy right handed swing that he has been working to smooth out. Scouts are less worried because he's a cold weather bat, meaning he's had fewer reps to smooth himself out, and his work ethic is universally praised. Committed to Virginia, he should be expensive, but at pick #13 he might not require an above slot bonus.
Other options: OF Lonnie White Jr. (Malvern Prep HS, Malvern, PA), RHP Chase Petty (Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, NJ), RHP Michael Morales (East Pennsboro HS, Enola, PA), RHP Mason Black (Lehigh via Archbald, PA), LHP Anthony Solometo (Bishop Eustace HS, Pennsauken, NJ)

Tampa Bay Rays: C Luca Tresh, NC State (hometown: Safety Harbor, FL)
There are some other local first round prospects in Mississippi's Gunnar Hoglund (Hudson, FL) and Florida's Jud Fabian (Ocala, FL) and Tommy Mace (Lutz, FL), but I don't think either of the first two reach Tampa Bay at pick #28 and Mace doesn't seem to fit the Rays' draft strategy. We'll go with an NC State product here in Luca Tresh, but he's local. Tresh grew up in Safety Harbor and attended Clearwater Central Catholic, so he's a Pinellas County kid who could join Shane McClanahan (Cape Coral, FL) and Mike Zunino (also Cape Coral) as local products on the Rays. Tresh is a power hitting catcher who was in first round pick Patrick Bailey's shadow last year, but really hit his stride in fall practice this year and came out swinging – in his first eight games, half of which came against Georgia Tech and Miami, he hit .469 with more home runs (seven) than strikeouts (six). Though Tresh has come back down to Earth a little since then, he remains one of the top college catchers on the board in a pretty strong class in that regard. Any time you have a college catcher with legitimate power that he can get to consistently in games, you already have something fairly unique, and Tresh's glove is improving steadily as well. With a strong arm to boot, he's quickly becoming an extremely well rounded asset and should go off the board in the vicinity of that 28th pick.
Other options: OF Jud Fabian (Florida via Ocala, FL), RHP Tommy Mace (Florida via Lutz, FL), OF Robby Martin (Florida State via Tampa, FL), LHP Jac Caglianone (Plant HS, Tampa, FL), OF Ty Evans (Lakeland Christian HS, Lakeland, FL)

Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Eric Cerantola, Mississippi State (hometown: Oakville, ON)
Canada can be very hit-and-miss, and this year, there isn't much in terms of Canadian talent at the top of the draft. Mississippi State righty Eric Cerantola is one of the only Day One prospects from north of the border, but he's definitely an interesting one that should go off the board somewhere in the second round range, possibly early third round. The Blue Jays don't pick between #'s 19 and 91, so I don't really see them having a crack at him unless bonus demands push him down, but anything can happen in the draft. Cerantola is a big righty coming in at 6'5", and his hockey background makes his mound presence that much more imposing. Right now, the stuff is the calling card, with the Oakville native bringing a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch the upper 90's in relief, a true plus curveball that might be the best in the draft when it's on, and an above average changeup. However, the pitchability traits are still catching up to the stuff, as he has little feel for the strike zone and seems to be "aiming" his pitches rather than truly commanding them. That leads to significant relief risk that will make him a serious stretch at pick #19, though the stuff is so loud that I really don't see him being available at #91 regardless. Cerantola attended Ecole Secondaire Catholique Sainte-Trinite for high school.
Other options: 2B Tyler Black (Wright State via Toronto, ON), RHP Ben Abram (Oklahoma via Georgetown, ON), C Joe Mack (Williamsville East HS, Williamsville, NY), RHP Calvin Ziegler (TNXL Academy, FL via Heidelberg, ON), RHP Cedric De Grandpre (Chipola CC via St. Simon, QC)

Washington Nationals: LHP Brandon Clarke, Independence HS, Ashburn, VA
Northern Virginia has produced its fair share of draft talent recently, even if it hasn't been the most exciting crop. J.B. Bukauskas, Tommy Doyle, Khalil Lee, and Joe Rizzo make up the most recent names, while the next could be lefty Brandon Clarke. Clarke, hailing from the same hometown as Bukauskas but a different high school, has been rising this spring after returning healthy from Tommy John surgery. His fastball has gained a tick and now sits in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96-97, while his breaking ball and changeup have gotten good reviews as well. It's a really loose delivery from a projectable 6'4" frame, so all signs point to him continuing to grow into his game and keep bringing those starter traits along. To this point, I haven't been able to find video of him since returning from that surgery, but the Nationals are never one to shy away from prep arms and he could be in play at the 47th pick or the 82nd pick if he falls due to signability away from an Alabama commitment.
Other options: OF James Wood (IMG Academy, FL via Olney, MD), LHP Andrew Abbott (Virginia via Republican Grove, VA), 1B Wes Clarke (South Carolina via Lynchburg, VA), SS Ethan Murray (Duke via Crozet, VA), 3B Zack Gelof (Virginia via Lewes, DE)

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (April update)

Back in February, before the season started, I highlighted ten players I could see the Nationals taking with the eleventh overall pick. Now in April, a lot has changed, so I'll spare the introduction that can be found in the original article and hop right into it. With nearly three months to go, a lot can and will still change, but here is where things stand now. Ranking on my most recent top 75 in parentheses.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas (#11)
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
2021: 4-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 57/18 K/BB in 53.1 IP.
As I mentioned last time, this one really fits with the Nationals' drafting style. Ty Madden is your traditional, tall, consistent right hander with no glaring flaws to his game. His low to mid 90's fastball has topped out at 99 this spring, and he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He adds a slider that is usually at least average and flashes plus, as well as a consistently above average changeup. Combine three at least above average pitches with consistent command and a durable frame, and you have a prototypical starting pitcher. As he's continued to stay healthy and pound the strike zone, worries have faded over his slightly funky arm action that features some stab in the back, and instead focus on the "old school" steep plane on his pitches. Coming from straight over the top, his VAA (vertical approach angle) is difficult to lift with a traditional hitting approach, but won't miss as many bats as a flatter, Jack Leiter-esque fastball. Still, with an excellent spring that has featured seven consecutive starts of at least six innings and no more than two runs or three walks, he's as safe a bet as anybody in this draft to become a mid-rotation starter, something the Nationals would love.

RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi (#8)
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP.
2021: 3-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 78/16 K/BB in 49 IP.
Gunnar Hoglund was in the "other possibilities" section of this list last time, but a bump in velocity puts him squarely in the conversation for Washington at pick #11, if he even makes it out of the top ten. Despite touching 96 in high school, Hoglund was generally around 90 throughout his first two years at Ole Miss, instead focusing deploying his plus command. He threw an average slider that flashed above average, as well as a seldom-used changeup, but mostly pitched off that fastball by dotting it right where he wanted it. Even though we knew he had more velocity in the tank, it was still a back-of-the-first-round profile until he proved it. Well, in 2021, he proved it. I was at Globe Life Field in Arlington to catch his start against Texas Tech, where he came out throwing 94-95 in the first inning and now two months later, he hasn't looked back. Holding that same plus command, Hoglund is regularly in the low to mid 90's nowadays with an effortless delivery that screams durability. His slider has taken a big step forward and is regularly above average, flashing plus, and it's topping out around 87-88, which was the lower end of his fastball velocity a year ago. He's also broken out that changeup more often and it's looking like a solidly above average pitch as well. At this point, I would prefer the Nationals draft Hoglund to Madden, but he might not even make it this far if he keeps pitching like this.

RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (#3)
2019-2020: 14-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 142/29 K/BB in 114.2 IP.
2021: 7-1, 1.88 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 73/14 K/BB in 48 IP.
Wait, what? Isn't Kumar Rocker supposed to be a candidate at 1-1? Well, his stock his slipping just a little bit right now. If the draft were today, he wouldn't make it to the Nationals at pick #11, but the draft is not today and he might be trending in that direction. For most of his time at Vanderbilt, the big righty has sat in the mid 90's with his fastball and touched 97-98 at the high end, but over his past few starts, that velocity has dipped pretty significantly into the low 90's. When you're talking about the very top of the draft, where teams are making potentially franchise-altering decisions, that's a big deal. There are teams wondering whether it's health related, fatigue related, or what, but he's going to want to answer that question definitively before July. Still, we're talking about a kid with great extension and a flat VAA (remember Madden had a steep VAA) that makes his fastball play above its velocity, and while his command is not pinpoint, he's been very consistent about landing the pitch for strikes (though the quality of those strikes has been nitpicked). He also adds arguably the best breaking ball in the class, an elite slider that crushes souls and could get big league hitters out right now. Rocker hasn't used his changeup as much, but it does flash above average. If his velocity comes back before the draft, it's highly unlikely he's available to the Nationals at pick #11, but continued fluctuations coupled with fastball command questions (i.e., hitting spots) could push him outside the top ten. So long as he stays healthy and nothing drastic happens, I see the Nationals as a potential floor for him.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA (#23)
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
2021: 6 HR, .314/.411/.542, 4 SB, 20/19 K/BB in 29 games.
I mentioned Matt McLain as an option for the Nationals back in February, and after a relatively slow start to the season, he was trending away from this list. However, he's now picked up a hit in sixteen of his last seventeen games and at one point hit four home runs in four games against Washington and Stanford, pushing his name back into consideration here just outside the top ten. McLain has no one flashy tool, but is instead what you call a "gamer" – the kid can just play. Despite standing a skinny 5'11", his athleticism and strong feel for the barrel have enabled him to tap more and more power throughout his amateur career, and that power showed up with wood bats as well in an exceptional turn through the California Collegiate League over the summer. He has reduced the swing and miss in his game as well, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.7% as a freshman to 20.3% as a sophomore and 14.2% this year as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate climbed from 6.8% and 6.3% over his first two years to 13.5% this year. A strong athlete, he is also a plus runner and has an outside chance at sticking at shortstop, though his feel to play the position at a major league level is questionable and he might fit better at second or third base. Overall, we're talking about a kid who can impact a baseball game in a lot of ways, and for a traditional team like the Nationals, a 15-20 home run bat with relatively high batting averages and an infield glove sounds like a fit. An August birthday makes him relatively old for the class, and that turns off some teams, but the Nationals did pop fellow August baby Cade Cavalli in the first round last year.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State (#28)
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
2021: 12 HR, .351/.486/.730, 9 SB, 23/24 K/BB in 31 games.
Colton Cowser, like his alliterative counterpart Matt McLain, was featured on this list back in February, and he's on a similar, if more extreme, trajectory. Cowser was excellent as a freshman (.361/.450/.602) but never really got going in his shortened sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), then got off to a slow start in 2021 that caused many in the industry (myself included) to sour on him a bit. I actually dropped him as low as #41 at one point. However, he clubbed four home runs in two games against Northwestern State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to bust out of that slump in a big way, then later homered in five consecutive games against Central Arkansas, Texas A&M, and New Orleans. Now that he's hot again, there is a lot to like in this profile. Ty Madden's high school teammate has a very strong feel for hitting, something he showed on a national stage with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019. He has a flat left handed swing that is more geared for line drives than fly balls, but he finds that barrel extremely frequently against the so-so Southland Conference pitching he faces at Sam Houston State. With a wiry 6'3" frame, it's easy to see him tacking on a bit more power, though he will need to tinker with his swing to get there consistently against pro pitching. Cowser, like McLain, is a plus runner, though as an outfielder he's working to prove he can stick in center field. In a year without many viable college bats, a guy like Cowser who can impact the game in a lot of ways sticks out.

OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (#12)
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.
2021: 5 HR, .360/.438/.576, 8 SB, 15/16 K/BB in 30 games.
Here's a new name. Coming into the season, Sal Frelick was an interesting back-of-the-first-round type who could impact the game in a lot of ways (that's three straight players I've used that verbiage for) but didn't necessarily stick out. Halfway through the season, boy does he stick out as arguably the second best college position player out there (at this point, there's probably no catching Henry Davis). The Massachusetts native has been blasting the ball around the field with ferocity this season, finding the barrel extremely consistently with elite bat to ball skills and wiry strength. In the past, he's often sold out for contact by putting bad (but successful) swings on bad pitches, and this year he's doing more damage and getting his "A" swing off more often. Described as a "ridiculous athlete," he plays a great center field with plus speed and could even fit at second base if needed. Some teams might be scared off by the size in this part of the draft, but that would be foolish and Frelick has every chance to become an impact, every day center fielder with 15-20 home run power (perhaps more), high on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases. Between McLain and Cowser, Frelick is probably the least likely to still be on the board when the Nationals pick.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK] (#16)
This might be a bit of a reach unless they under slot him, but I do want to include a couple of high school pitchers for a team that has a history with them (see Mason Denaburg, Lucas Giolito). Jackson Jobe is an extremely interesting pitcher out of the Oklahoma City high school ranks, and could give the Nationals a second straight first round Okie pitcher after Tulsa-native and Sooner star Cade Cavalli last year. Relatively new to pitching, the 6'2" righty was better prospect as a hitter until a huge summer on the showcase circuit as a pitcher last year. He has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's in short stints and gets up to 95-96, but the real story is his slider. While Kumar Rocker has the best breaking ball in the college class, Jobe's slider is the best in the high school class with ridiculous spin rates well north of 3000 RPM's. Its bite is late, it's tight, and it's just a wicked pitch overall. He also adds a curveball and a changeup that flash above average, and by staying healthy and filling up the strike zone this spring, he has added confidence that he'll stick in the rotation. Jobe is old for the class and will turn 19 slightly after the draft, but even if that did bother the Nationals, the fact that he's relatively new to pitching should offset it. He is committed to Ole Miss but in the top half of the first round, I don't expect him to be too expensive.

RHP Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA] (#29)
Same deal as Jackson Jobe here – this would probably be a reach unless he signed well below slot, but the Nationals aren't afraid of high school pitchers and Bubba Chandler seems like a guy they would like. Pitching at Kumar Rocker's alma mater near Athens, Georgia, Chandler is a ridiculous athlete who is actually committed to Clemson to play quarterback as well. If you follow college football at all, you know the enormity of that distinction – kid's a stud. Heading into the spring, it seemed unlikely that his projected second to fourth round draft range would deter him away from Dabo Swinney's program, but he's had some of the most helium of any high schooler in the country this spring. Does that push him all the way up to the Nationals at pick #11? Probably not, but we can still discuss it. Chandler is a 6'3" righty with a fastball that has leapt into the mid 90's, touching 97, and his command has held solid as well. He adds a sharp curveball that looks like one of the best breakers in the class at its best, a new slider that brings a more horizontal look, and a changeup that is quickly becoming a weapon in its own right. Combine that with obviously immense athleticism and you have a very, very interesting arm to buy early in the draft. That Clemson commitment will make him very expensive if he were picked closer to the back of the first round, but here at the eleventh pick you could probably under slot him.

SS Kahlil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC] (#7)
We'll finish up with a couple of bats. While Bubba Chandler might be a reach here, Kahlil Watson might not even make it to pick #11 with the way he's trending. If he is available, the Nationals would be smart to snatch him up. Though Raleigh-Durham is Braves country in reality, his hometown of Wake Forest, NC is technically closer to Washington than it is to Atlanta and I'll call that a hometown pick. Watson is a loud player in every sense of the word, but the first thing you notice is his swing. He generates tremendous torque from the left side with a vicious uppercut, giving him plus raw power despite a smaller 5'9" frame. Despite the ferocity of his swing, it's a controlled operation and he's made consistent contact both on the showcase circuit and this spring in North Carolina. Watson also showcases plus speed that makes him a threat on the bases, and combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop. A high-energy player that is fun to watch on the diamond, he has face-of-the-franchise upside if he reaches it. For now, he's probably just outside that top tier of high school hitters (Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House) just due to a hit tool that's more average than above average, but he could very well be gone anyways in the top ten. He's committed to NC State and will be expensive.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
This one would really be a hometown pick, as James Wood grew up in Olney, Maryland, about twenty miles due north of Nationals Park. He attends the famed IMG Academy down in Florida along with numerous other 2021 and 2022 draft prospects, where he's actually their second best draft prospect behind 2022's Elijah Green. Wood is a towering 6'6" slugger who can absolutely punish a baseball when he connects, but the separating factor is actually his hit tool. He makes surprisingly easy contact for a hitter so big and so strong, identifying balls and strikes well against elite competition. That makes him all the more dangerous and has earned him comparisons to Zac Veen, who went ninth overall to the Rockies last year, though Wood has more present power. He's an easygoing kid who plays the game with an ultra-low heartbeat, somewhat the opposite of Kahlil Watson above him on this list, letting his play do the talking. For now, he's a good athlete as well who can actually handle center field, but he'll likely slow down as he ages and right field is probably the best fit with his cannon arm. Wood has true middle-of-the-order upside as a kid who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Committed to Mississippi State, he will likely be an expensive sign.

A few other possibilities
RHP McCade Brown, Indiana
OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
C Luca Tresh, North Carolina State
RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS [NJ]
C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS [GA]

Updates on those mentioned last time

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn (#43): 0-3, 7.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 16/6 K/BB in 18.2 IP.
Fitts had a chance to pitch himself into top ten consideration with a strong spring, but instead he lost his rotation spot at Auburn as he's proven more hittable than expected despite filling up the strike zone relatively well. Analytics-driven teams will still like his high spin fastball and pair of nice secondaries, but because he hasn't proven he can start, he figures to go closer to the back of the first round at best.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan (#56): 1-0, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 42/10 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
It's been a much stronger season for Hajjar than for Fitts, but Hajjar was a long shot two months ago and hasn't taken the step forward he needed. His velocity is still relatively fringy around 90, peaking into the low 90's, which isn't enough this early in the draft. He has promising secondaries and has thrown more consistent strikes in 2021, so he'll still be a strong option in the second round, perhaps even for the Nationals at pick #47.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State (#37): 2-3, 6.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 29.2 IP.
It's been an unfortunate season for Jaden Hill at every step of the way. A potential top five pick coming into the season, concerns started to crop up when his slider proved more inconsistent than expected and he failed to miss as many bats with his fastball as some scouts had hoped. Then on April 2nd in a highly touted matchup against potential first overall pick Jack Leiter, he walked off the field holding his elbow and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. It is truly remarkable how Jaden Hill has transformed himself as a pitcher over three years in Baton Rouge, but now with two season-ending injuries in three years and no consistent track record of starting, it's really hard to project him as a long term starter in the big leagues. I don't think the Nationals would bite at #11, but if he slipped to #47 in the second round, I could see them paying him well above slot to sign.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (#40): 7 HR, .231/.319/.496, 2 SB, 30/12 K/BB in 30 games.
It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Alex Binelas. After taking the ACC by storm as a freshman (.291/.383/.612), he played just two games a sophomore due to a broken hand. Healthy in 2021, he struggled mightily out of the gate with just one hit in his first six games against relatively weak competition. He's since shown glimpses of the star he was as a freshman, including a four game stretch against NC State, Western Kentucky, and Notre Dame in which he went 9-15 with three home runs, but overall he just hasn't been able to recover the stock he lost with those early season struggles. Combine that with a move to first base for Louisville, and he fits closer to the back of the first round at best right now.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL] (#26)
I considered including Andrew Painter on this list again this time around, but ultimately I opted for the two prep arms trending up (Jackson Jobe and Bubba Chandler) rather than one trending down. Painter's stock isn't crashing, per se, but he's no longer the consensus top pitcher in the class after a spring where his command has been a bit shakier than before and he's been hit a little harder. There's still a lot to like in a 6'6" right hander who can hit the mid 90's, adds a full arsenal, and shows well above average command at times, but not at pick #11. He could be an option for the Nationals at pick #47 if they want to sign him way above slot. He's committed to Florida and will want first round money no matter what.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA] (#5)
Unlike the other names that I included last time but didn't this time, Brady House isn't slipping. Instead, he's continued to wow evaluators with his huge tool set and I think it's highly unlikely he gets to the Nationals at pick #11 unless his signing bonus demands are outrageous. If House goes out and lights up the pre-draft showcases like I expect him to, we'll see him go well within the top ten picks.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten preseason picks for first overall

Some years, you have a clear first overall pick. Going back, that was the case in the past three drafts, when we saw Auburn's Casey Mize, Oregon State's Adley Rutschman, and Arizona State's Spencer Torkelson cruise to the 1-1 slot. As we head into the 2021 season, we have a frontrunner in Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker, but he's far from a slam dunk and there are numerous players that could catch him. A lot can and will change between now and July 11th, but for now, here are ten names with a chance to land in Pittsburgh at first overall.

The Frontrunner: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
One of the top recruits to make it to campus in 2018, Kumar Rocker has only elevated his profile in the time since. Through 27 appearances (19 starts), he has 14-6 with a 3.06 ERA and a 142/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings against Vanderbilt's tough schedule, including a nineteen strikeout no-hitter of Duke in the 2019 Nashville Super Regional. The Georgian is an imposing figure at a listed 6'4", 255 pounds, and he brings the stuff to match. Rocker's fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 99, and he adds in a plus-plus slider with devastating late bite and a well above average changeup with great sink. His command isn't pinpoint, but he fills up the strike zone consistently. His delivery has a few extra moving parts, but it's fluid and he repeats it extremely well. At this point, Rocker emphatically checks all the boxes you want to see at the top of the draft: high-end velocity, a true putaway pitch, a third potential plus pitch, durability, and track record. If we want to nitpick, which you have to at the top of the draft, he doesn't get a ton of swings and misses on his fastball and could be susceptible to the long ball in the majors.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Rocker is in the driver's seat, so he mostly needs to just maintain. That means staying healthy (obviously), continuing to fill up the strike zone, and continuing to miss bats at the ridiculous pace he has in the past. If he wants to truly separate from the pack, getting more whiffs on that fastball would be nice, as would advancing his command (ability to hit spots) to above average to match that above average control (ability to throw strikes).

Quietly Dominant: RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt
Though Kumar Rocker is currently the favorite to go first overall, there are some who think he's the second best pitcher on his own team. Jack Leiter, like Rocker, arrived on campus as one of the top recruits in the country, and he turned heads by firing five innings of one hit ball against Evansville in his first college game. However, because he was a full year older than his graduating class, he's eligible as a sophomore and will turn 21 in April. While Rocker stands out for his stuff while showing strong pitchability, Leiter is the opposite in that he stands out for his pitchability while also showing strong stuff. On the shorter side at six feet tall, his fastball sits in the low 90's but plays up due to his elite ability to release the ball out front, giving him a combination of great extension and a very low (i.e. good) release height. He flips in a curveball in the 70's that already has the depth, and it could be a plus pitch if he continues to put more power behind it. There's a relatively new slider that flashes above average and could be plus in time, while his changeup plays average. Combine that with above average command and plus overall feel for pitching, and you have the building blocks of a big league starter who will stick around for a long time.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Leiter does have some work. Since he didn't graduate high school until he was well past his 19th birthday, he's only gotten to throw 15.2 innings in college so far. While nobody doubts his ability, he has to go out and prove it against Vanderbilt's SEC schedule. Leiter's lack of elite velocity (both on his fastball and his secondaries) might also turn off some evaluators, but he reportedly hit 97 with his fastball in fall practice and getting more consistently into the mid 90's this spring (he was more 90-94 as a freshman) could give him the final bump.

Leading the High School Class: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS [TX]
Two years ago, a high school shortstop from the Dallas-Fort Worth Mid-Cities went second overall to the Kansas City Royals, and now Irving native Jordan Lawlar finds his stock at a similar level to Southlake native Bobby Witt Jr. Hailing from the same Jesuit High School program that produced Josh Bell, Kyle Muller, and golfer Jordan Spieth, Lawlar stands at the top of a strong class of high school bats. He stands out first and foremost for his strong feel for the game, making heads up plays consistently on both sides of the ball. He shows a clean swing from the right side, producing plenty of hard, line drive contact against the top arms in the class with ease. Much more than just a slap hitter, the 6'2" teenager has been growing into some legitimate power and now projects for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps even more, to go along with those high on-base percentages. He's also one of the better defenders in the class and will stick at shortstop, making his bat look even better, and his plus speed means that you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game. The only knock on Lawlar at this point is his age, as a July birthday means he'll already be 19 on draft day. The rest of his profile is so strong, though, that it's hard to hold that against him.
What he needs to do to go first overall: He's so close, so the answer is not much other than maintain. Tapping his power more consistently while continuing to get on base at a high clip would certainly help, as it's the only place he doesn't grade out as true plus. Otherwise, if the Vanderbilt commit continues to steal the show this spring like he did over the summer, he's right there.

Right Behind Lawlar: SS Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake HS [CA]
While Jordan Lawlar has but some narrow daylight between himself and the rest of the high school class, Marcelo Mayer is right on his heels. Mayer, like Lawlar, comes from a powerhouse program, with suburban San Diego's Eastlake High School having produced Adrian Gonzalez, Casey Schmitt, and Keoni Cavaco. Also like Lawlar, he has great feel for the game and an easy plus hit tool, but comes with perhaps even more power projection due to an explosive, but clean, left handed swing and a projectable 6'3" frame. He's also an even better shortstop than Lawlar, but lacks his counterpart's plus speed on the bases. Personally, I like Mayer's ceiling even better than I do Lawlar's, with a real possibility of 25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and potential Gold Glove defense at a premium position.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Mayer needs to tap his power in games. He's done so occasionally, but while he has the lead over Lawlar in terms of power projection, Lawlar has tapped his more consistently to this point. By closing the gap between his present and projected power, Mayer can help scouts feel more confident he'll tap his massive ceiling. Given that the Southern California commit already possesses exceptional feel for the barrel, nobody's all that concerned anyways.

Tools and Track Record: OF Jud Fabian, Florida
Jud Fabian graduated high school a year early and got to campus at Florida just before his 18th birthday, and now he won't turn 21 until multiple months after the draft. After a respectable freshman campaign (.232/.353/.411), Fabian broke out as a sophomore (.294/.407/.603, 5 HR in 17 games) and now has a pair of strong summers in the Cape Cod League and Florida Collegiate League under his belt. Listed at 6'2", he packs above average raw power into his athletic frame and taps it consistently in games due to his strong plate discipline. He's also an above average runner with the chance to stick in center field, meaning he can impact the game in as many ways as anybody in this class. If there's one concern for the Ocala native, it's the pure bat to ball skills, as he has some minor swing and miss concerns in the zone despite good pitch recognition and selection.
What he needs to do to go first overall: For me personally, cutting down on swing and miss in the zone would be a big plus. It's not something I'm particularly concerned about, but it brings what could be a 55 or 60 hit tool based on his plate discipline down to more of a 50. That could help him really showcase his power, and with all the walks he draws and his ability to steal bases and play up the middle, we could have a pretty complete ballplayer in that case that would be hard to turn down.

Loud Stuff, Quiet Track Record: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
Pitch for pitch, Kumar Rocker might not have the best stuff in this class – that may very well be LSU's Jaden Hill. Hailing from a small town outside Texarkana, Hill was another big recruit who has seen his stuff improve considerably in Baton Rouge. Originally a fastball/changeup pitcher, he touched the upper 90's in his few short stints in game action and still shows plus potential with his changeup. The difference between now and three years ago, however, is his slider, which has improved from a fringy offering to a true plus pitch that flashes plus-plus. The Arkansas native is also working on a cutter that flashes above average, rounding out his arsenal. Hill has never had trouble throwing strikes and now that his quarterback career is through, the 6'4", 235 pounder looks the part of a durable starter as well.
What he needs to do to go first overall: In one sentence, he needs his stuff to be just as loud at the end of the season as it is at the start. Injuries as a freshman plus the coronavirus shutdown have limited him to 21.2 innings, mostly as a reliever, so he simply has not proven that his stuff can hold up over long stretches. To this point, Hill has done nothing to prove he can't be a front of the rotation type, so he just needs to prove he can.

The Pure Bat: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami
The title says it all here – there isn't a more professional hitter in this class than Adrian Del Castillo. The Miami native is a career .336/.430/.571 hitter for the Hurricanes with 14 home runs and significantly more walks (43) than strikeouts (32), showing the calm, confident, mature hitting ability that few can rival. Though he's just 5'11" and stockily built at that, he possesses above average raw power that he taps consistently in games to go along with his plus hit tool. Del Castillo's short-to-it, long-through-it swing is perfectly geared for putting barrel to baseball, combining with his plus plate discipline to help him execute as consistently as anyone. On defense, there are more question marks. He carries over his feel for the game behind the plate, showing good fundamentals and an accurate arm, but he lacks the athleticism and explosiveness you'd like to see in a catching prospect. He's working hard to improve back there, but it's far from a guarantee at this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: As far as the bat goes, he just has to maintain. However, there needs to be improvement in the glove. If Del Castillo has to move off catcher, 5'11" is a little short for first base and his below average speed and unspectacular arm would limit him to a mediocre left field. If he can get a little smoother behind the plate, showing better ability to get down and block balls in the dirt/put a little more power on his throws, scouts can be more confident they won't have to accept a defensive liability at 1B/LF. Honestly, if he proves he can stick behind the plate this spring, consider Adrian Del Castillo a top-three candidate to go first overall.

The Former First Rounder: SS Matt McLain, UCLA
While Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter had first round pedigree coming out of high school, Matt McLain was actually drafted 25th overall in 2018, but did not sign with the Diamondbacks. His freshman season was disappointing (.203/.276/.355), but since the calendar flipped to 2020, McLain has seen his stock explode. He hit .397/.422/.621 in thirteen games as a sophomore, then a ridiculous .436/.536/.773 with seven home runs over the summer in the California Collegiate League. The Los Angeles-area native appears slight in stature at 5'11", but he's an explosive athlete that churns out plus run times and hits for more power than you'd expect. His quick right handed swing enables him to make plenty of hard contact, also helping that power play up to average so far, with the chance to get to above average. He can be a bit choppy at shortstop but overall projects to stick there with a strong arm and plenty of speed. McLain's main drawback is a susceptibility to offspeed stuff, part of an overall aggressive approach that can limit his on-base percentages.
What he needs to do to go first overall: McLain will always be projected as a hit-over-power guy, so in order to make his way to the very top of the class, he'll naturally need to prove that hit tool is rock-solid. To do that, he'll need to lay off breaking balls out of the zone in 2021, and overall bring his walk rate up considerably. That walk rate is 6.7% for his career, so we'd really like to see something in the double digits in 2021 with a reduction in the strikeout rate.

The Next Texas Horse: RHP Ty Madden, Texas
Ty Madden has been trending up ever since his high school days in the Houston suburbs, where he was teammates with JJ Goss (Rays, comp round 2019), Matthew Thompson (White Sox, second round 2019), and Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State, likely first round 2021). Madden had a 3.40 ERA and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 42.1 innings as a freshman, then ramped that up to a 1.80 ERA and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 innings as a sophomore. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96-97 in games and as high as 99 in fall practice, and the pitch plays up further due to the tough angle and run he puts on it. His slider has been relatively inconsistent, shortening up at times but showing true plus at others. Madden also possesses one of the better changeups in the class, an above average pitch that is more consistent than his slider. His command has steadily improved and he has no trouble filling up the strike zone nowadays, and while some stabbing motion in the back of his delivery and a funky arm path worry some scouts, he has been durable to this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There aren't any giant leaps that need to be made. Rather, incremental improvements in various parts of his game could do the trick for the 6'3" right hander. Maintaining his low to mid 90's fastball over a full season, getting a little more consistent with that slider, and refining his command just a touch would all help. There's really not much to dislike in Madden's game, so he just needs to continue to prove it.

The Sleeper: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
I don't think Ryan Cusick is one of the ten most likely players to go first overall, but it's not impossible and it's really fun to think about. Hailing from the same Connecticut boarding school, the Avon Old Farms School, that produced George Springer and 2020 Orioles second rounder Hudson Haskin, Cusick's 5.63 ERA and 98/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings highlight the up and down nature of his career in Winston-Salem. The Boston-area native has a wicked fastball that can touch 97-98 in games with great ride that makes it tough to square up, though he can dip into the low 90's fairly frequently. His slider flashes true plus, perhaps even plus-plus, but frequently flattens out into a below average pitch. He also throws an average changeup and can flip in a slurvy curveball. His command has been wildly inconsistent, from fringe average as a freshman to well below average as a sophomore (18 walks in 22.1 innings) and back to fringe average in summer ball. Cusick reaches his velocity pretty easily, and he's gotten more coordinated with his lanky 6'6" frame and explosive stuff.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot. Cusick took a big step forward with an exceptional summer in the Coastal Plain League (1.14 ERA, 40/9 K/BB), but he needs to continue to prove himself in the spring. The Pirates won't consider him unless he gets close to average command on a consistent basis, and his slider needs to take that last step forward and stop flattening out. That's all easier said than done, but if the draft were held to day, I don't think Cusick would be a factor in the top half of the first round.

Honorable Mentions

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville: Binelas had as loud of a freshman season as you can have (14 HR, .291/.383/.612), showing as explosive of a bat as any in the class. His lightning quick swing gives him massive raw power and elite exit velocities, while his strong feel for the barrel enables him to tap that power consistently in games. His swing can be a bit rigid, as can his actions at third base, so he lacks the up the middle projection you usually see with the first overall pick. The Milwaukee-area native also lacks the plus hit tool that Spencer Torkelson had, so for that reason, it's hard to envision a path to the very top of the draft.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]: The most famous name in the high school class coming into the summer, House hasn't faltered so much as players like Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer have simply outperformed him. Coming from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, he shows plus raw power that he has consistently tapped in games against top competition. His hit tool has been more inconsistent, as he goes through stretches where he is completely unfazed by velocity and high-end breaking stuff, but at others he shows a bit more swing and miss than you'd like. The 6'3" shortstop's right handed swing could use a little fine tuning, as it's simple and explosive when he stays within himself but can get out of whack at times, and he'll need to learn to add loft regardless. House has a chance to stick at shortstop, but he might outgrow the position and move to third base.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]: Wood has been one of the fastest risers in the class as he's proven his hit tool more and more. Growing up on the Maryland side of the DC suburbs, he transferred to the famous IMG Academy outside Tampa and it's paying off. The 6'6" giant has a very laid back playing style, showing up in a calm demeanor and a patient approach at the plate. When he swings, though, he unleashes huge raw power that comes from a combination of loft, strength, and extension in his left handed swing. He possesses a keen eye at the plate and won't chase bad pitches, though he can get himself into deep counts and swing and miss from there occasionally. An above average runner for now, he has a chance to stick in center field and could be a plus defender in right.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
No high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and while that's unlikely to change in 2021, it's hard to find anything wrong with Andrew Painter. He's a towering 6'6" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95-96, with that projectable frame promising more velocity. He adds a pair of good breaking balls in a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, neither of which is a true plus pitch but both of which are consistently at least average and flash above average. His changeup is the same story, playing at least average consistently and flashing above. Unlike most high school pitchers with his build, he's a polished strike thrower with an easy, simple delivery, making him the complete package at a young age. The next step, aside from staying healthy, will be refining at least one of his breaking balls into a plus pitch.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
Fitts was one of the fall's biggest risers, pushing himself from a fringe-day one arm to a true first round talent. Mostly a swingman over his first two years at Auburn, the Birmingham-area native sat around 90 with his fastball and showed promise with his secondaries and command as a reliever. He earned a starting role over the summer and in the fall, where his fastball actually ticked up into the low to mid 90's, playing up due to the tough angle he puts on his pitches. His downer slider and nice splitter both flash above average, and as he did as a reliever, he throws strikes with all three pitches. With a durable 6'3" frame, he has all the starter traits necessary to project in the rotation long term, and he just needs to go out and prove it this spring.