2021 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

The Angels must have felt their system was short on arms, because they went twenty for twenty here in drafting nothing but pitchers. They set the stage by going more than a million dollars below slot value on ninth overall pick Sam Bachman, then spent that money on a massive overslot bonus for twelfth rounder Mason Albright, in fact the largest ever that late in the draft. Though they only drafted pitchers, the Angels did not have a monolithic draft and really picked up a variety of different types of arms, balancing power arms with finesse guys, projection plays with now-products, and data-friendly arms with traditional pitchers. I don't love all of the picks, but I'm interested in a lot of them and I especially liked fifth rounder Brett Kerry, ninth rounder Braden Olthoff, eleventh rounder Chase Silseth, and thirteenth rounder Mo Hanley. This was a case where I wanted to write about quite a few more names and had to cut some out.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-9: RHP Sam Bachman, Miami of Ohio. My rank: #19.
The Angels didn't hold back any punches with their first pick, going with arguably the nastiest pitcher in the entire class aside from Jack Leiter. Sam Bachman was simply too much for MAC hitters this spring, putting up a 1.81 ERA and a 93/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, allowing just 29 hits along the way for a paltry .147 opponents' batting average to go along with his 41% strikeout rate. The stuff is absolutely legitimate. Bachman sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and routinely touches the upper 90's, cranking it as high as 101 at times, and it's not your typical fastball flight path, either. He gets really low into his delivery, almost crouching as he springs towards the plate, keeping his release point extremely low despite a three quarters arm slot. That makes the pitch ride like a feather in a hurricane, eliciting a ton of swings and misses. The Indianapolis-area native also adds a plus slider that flashes plus-plus, coming with short, late, bat missing bite, sneaking under barrels at the last second. He doesn't use his changeup as often, but is shows flashes of becoming a plus pitch in time with more development. Bachman fills up the strike zone with his three pitches and unlike most pitchers with truly electric stuff, he rarely gets himself into trouble with walks. There are drawbacks, though. The 6'1" righty has not proven his durability yet, as he missed nearly a month with a sore arm early in the season, though he did impress evaluators in his second start back by striking out all nine Northern Illinois hitters he faced, showing there were no lingering issues with the stuff. Still, he pitched past the sixth inning just once this season and while pitch counts aren't available for every game, I don't believe he topped 100 pitches at any point. For a team like the Angels that has struggled to keep pitchers healthy, that makes me nervous. Still, the upside here is a true ace with three plus pitches and above average command at his ceiling, so you can't fault the pick, especially given that they got him at a big discount. Bachman signed for $3.85 million, which was roughly $1.1 million below slot value, and he has allowed two runs through four innings of work so far at High A Tri-City, striking out five.

2-45: LHP Ky Bush, St. Mary's College. My rank: #86.
Having bounced around from Washington State as a freshman to Central Arizona JC as a sophomore to St. Mary's as a junior, Ky Bush really settled in this year and was climbing boards quickly all spring. In a year where many West Coast arms struggled to stand out, Bush really separated himself with a 2.99 ERA and a 112/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings, including a pair of thirteen strikeout performances against Santa Clara and Loyola Marymount. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get up to about 96, coming from a high arm slot that puts downhill plane on the pitch, opposite to Sam Bachman. His best pitch is his slider, coming in with sharp break that works extremely well down in the zone, and he has feel to morph it into more of a curveball at times. Bush also flips in a changeup but mainly pitches off the fastball and slider. Previously a stuff-over-command guy, the 6'6" lefty has worked hard to get more coordinated in his delivery and now fills up the strike zone with above average command, really helping his stuff play up. Because of the steep plane on his fastball, he'll likely have to rely on his slider to get swings and misses once the mid 90's aren't enough to blow by hitters in pro ball, but he still profiles as a #3 or #4 starter once he gets there. The Salt Lake City-area native signed for $1.75 million, which was about $100,000 above slot value, and he tossed 1.1 shutout innings in his High A Tri-City debut, recording all four outs on strikeouts while allowing three baserunners.

3-80: RHP Landon Marceaux, Louisiana State. My rank: #102.
Despite lacking physicality and loud stuff, Landon Marceaux has endeared himself to SEC area scouts just through sheer willpower and performance. He was one of the most consistent starters in the SEC this spring, stepping up for an ineffective and eventually injured Jaden Hill by posting a 2.54 ERA and a 116/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings, including an outing against eventual national champion Mississippi State in which he allowed just three baserunners over seven innings. Marceaux sits around 90 with his fastball, usually a tick above, and gets up to maybe 94 at his best. He adds a slider, curveball, and changeup, none of which are plus, but he shows exceptional feel to sequence and locate them. Every pitch as a purpose and plays off the others, enabling him to hold down tough SEC lineups every Friday even without the electric stuff you'll usually see in Baton Rouge or Nashville or Gainesville on a typical Friday. The skinny 6' righty is a bit undersized but repeats his clean, low effort delivery very consistently while maintaining his stuff throughout his starts, giving him every chance to crack it as a #4 starter at the big league level. He should move quickly and could beat Ky Bush and even Sam Bachman to the majors. The kid from the outskirts of New Orleans signed for full slot value at $767,800.

4-110: RHP Luke Murphy, Vanderbilt. Unranked.
This pick surprised a lot of people, especially given the Angels went above slot. We all knew who Luke Murphy was, as he had plenty of exposure as half of Vanderbilt's "M&M" bullpen duo with Nick Maldonado, but he still went unranked on both the Baseball America 500, the Prospects Live 600, and my tracking list of 243, while sneaking into the MLB Pipeline 250 at #219. Of course, the Angels don't (and shouldn't) care about national rankings and got their guy at pick #110. He came into the season completely off the radar, having redshirted as a freshman in 2019 before walking nine in two innings as a sophomore in 2020, but he put it all together in 2021 with a 2.40 ERA and a 61/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings out of the Vanderbilt bullpen. The 6'5" righty sits in the mid 90's in short stints, getting up as high as 99, and he adds a more inconsistent curveball and changeup that both flash above average. Everything plays up because he puts really tough angle on the ball, reaching his lead leg far across the rubber and releasing the ball well past it, creating a closed off look for the batter. His command improved from non-playable as an underclassman to fringe-average as a sophomore, and he likely would have been a starter had he not been surrounded by names like Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, and Christian Little. It's probably a relief profile in pro ball regardless given his inconsistent secondaries and 45 grade command, but if the Angels are paying him like they're paying him, they probably see him as a starter. You can flip the book and say he's a projectable 6'5", repeats his delivery well, and has plenty of arm strength, and that could lead to some great things as a starter. The Middle Tennessee native signed for $750,000, which was $222,200 above slot value.

5-141: RHP Brett Kerry, South Carolina. Unranked.
Brett Kerry is a really interesting one, and one who I was interested in before the draft but never got around to. He had a fantastic season for South Carolina this year, putting up a 2.15 ERA and an 84/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings, punctuated by some absolute gems against Vanderbilt (5.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K) and Kentucky (9 IP, 0 ER, 10 K). He was a long reliever for most of the season before taking on three starts late, and there's a chance the Angels could develop him as a starter. Kerry mainly pitches off his low 90's fastball that can get up to 95-96, adding an above average slider when he needs it to get outs. He commands both pitches very well and pounds the strike zone, rarely getting himself into trouble with walks and tending to stay ahead in the count. The 6' righty lacks much projection, but he repeats his delivery well and holds his stuff over longer outings, adding to his starter upside, though he will need to better incorporate his changeup if he wants to get there. He turned 22 in April, but the track record over three years (2.54 ERA, 167/26 K/BB in 127.2 IP) is hard to ignore and while I'm usually not a fan of college relievers, I am a fan of this one. The Winston-Salem-area native signed for $297,500, which was $92,900 below slot value, and he tossed two shutout innings in his Low A Inland Empire debut while striking out five of the seven batters he faced.

6-171: RHP Jake Smith, Miami. Unranked.
Jake Smith was eligible last year at the State College of Florida (JC) and warranted some interest in the back of the shortened draft, but ended up at Miami where his stock has largely held. In his first and only season at the Division I level, he pitched to a 3.45 ERA and a 63/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 innings, originally as a reliever before working into the rotation as the Hurricanes struggled to find consistency in that regard. He has plenty of arm strength, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and getting up as high as 97-98, adding an above average sweepy slider and a solid changeup. There's some effort in his delivery as he tends to jerk his way through it, but the 6'4" righty generally keeps his long limbs in check enough to stay around the strike zone. If you squint, you can see a starter's profile here with the big, still projectable frame, the arm strength, three pitch mix, and ability to provide consistent strikes, though it will take some work to get there. The Raleigh-Durham native will need to smooth out that delivery a bit more to get to true average command, as well as further refine his changeup into a consistent weapon rather than a change of pace pitch. He signed for $247,500, which was $46,300 below slot value, and he's thrown four shutout innings so far at High A Tri-City while striking out three.

9-261: RHP Braden Olthoff, Tulane. My rank: #168.
How can you not root for this guy? Braden Olthoff has had a meteoric rise from where he was just a few years ago and doesn't take anything for granted. Having barely pitched in high school, he and his brand new mid 80's fastball were lightly recruited and he wound up at Palomar JC in San Marcos, where he showed pristine control but was hit around due to his lack of stuff as a freshman. That stuff ticked up a bit as a sophomore and landed him a transfer opportunity to Tulane, and it's safe to say he made the most of it. Olthoff was arguably the best pitcher statistically in college baseball in 2020, allowing just one earned run over 28 innings (a 0.32 ERA) while striking out 47 of the 101 batters he faced and walking just three against Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Fullerton, Middle Tennessee State, and Southern. He was a little more hittable over a larger sample this spring and had his line marred a bit by an eight run outing against Cincinnati late in the season, but he still finished with a respectable 3.78 ERA and a 91/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings. The San Diego-area native now sports a low 90's fastball that can get up to around 93-94, adding a huge 12-6 curveball that he can work into a more lateral slider in addition to a plus changeup. However, that stuff did flatten out a bit late in the season this year and he was sitting in the upper 80's in some starts. Olthoff makes everything play up with tremendous pitchability, deftly working through lineups and keeping hitters off balance at virtually all times, executing his game plans with precision. The 6'4" righty may be big, but he's an old school pitcher who throws with very little effort to the point where he almost looks like he's just playing catch. Aside from the changeup, the stuff is pretty fringy as it is so he can't afford to see it tick down like it did in 2021, but it's a really fun profile that could make him a fan favorite back-end starter if the Angels get it right. Having turned 22 in March, he's a bit older, but again he's still pretty new to pitching and shows so much feel for it that I don't doubt his ability to pick up new tricks. He signed for $122,500, which was $35,100 below slot value.

11-321: RHP Chase Silseth, Arizona. My rank: #105.
Chase Silseth may have gone in the eleventh round, but he received the late fourth round money (roughly slot value for pick #119) to go pro with the Angels' sixth largest signing bonus of the draft. He is very well travelled, having travelled from his hometown in northwestern New Mexico all the way across the country to Tennessee for his freshman year, going back to Las Vegas to play at Southern Nevada JC, and finally landing in Tucson at Arizona. He had an up and down spring in the hitter-friendly confines of Hi Corbett Field, finishing with a 5.55 ERA and a 105/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings, but there's a lot to like. The 6' righty goes right after hitters with a low 90's fastball that can get up to 97-98 when he needs it, adding both an above average slider and changeup. His command is average but it plays up because he pounds the strike zone fearlessly while working his pitches in and out, all with a repeatable delivery and a sturdy frame that holds its stuff late into games. He can get hit when he leaves fastballs over the plate or his offspeed stuff flattens out, something he'll need to work hard on in pro ball, but I think he'll figure it out and work his way up as a #4 starter. The Farmington product signed for $485,000, of which $360,000 counts against the Angels' bonus pool.

12-351: LHP Mason Albright, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #176.
The single largest bonus in the history of the draft's third day (rounds 11 and on) went to Mason Albright, who received late second round money (roughly equivalent of pick #57) to forgo becoming Virginia Tech's most hyped recruit in years and shattering my heart into a million pieces as an alum. A native of Thurmont, Maryland near the Pennsylvania line, he transferred to the IMG Academy in Florida but like fellow Marylander and Padres second round pick James Wood, he was a bit underwhelming this spring. Albright is not a power pitcher, instead sitting around 90 with his fastball and only getting up to 93-94 at best. He adds a very sweepy slider that has great shape but needs to add significant power, while his above average changeup is his best pitch and could eventually be plus. Everything plays up because he commands the strike zone well and comes from a deceptive low three quarters arm slot that puts good run on the ball, and he can tunnel those pitches off each other well. This spring, the regression wasn't isolated in any one area, rather everything in his arsenal (command included) backed up just a half grade. The Angels likely see that as just a blip on the radar and instead are buying a high baseball IQ pitcher who understands how to work at bats and keep hitters off balance, believing more velocity will come as he adds strength to his 6' frame and gets into their development system. If it all works out, you'll have a mid-rotation starter who combines savvy with stuff and can stick around for a long time. It took nearly $1.25 million to pass up that Virginia Tech commitment, all but $125,000 of which counts against the Angels' bonus pool.

13-381: LHP Mo Hanley, Adrian College. Unranked.
Mo Hanley was lightly recruited out of high school but has steadily improved his game at Division III Adrian College, then after a strong fall, he was a sleeper pick for a lot of Midwest area scouts. Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery just five starts into the season, but the Angels were impressed enough anyways to take him here in the thirteenth round. Over the last two seasons, he owns a 3.13 ERA and a 57/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, capping off a successful four year career. Hanley has a huge arm that pumps fastballs into the mid 90's with riding action and a wicked slider that's a plus pitch when it's located. The 6'2" lefty has a unique delivery in which he stands on the balls of his feet as he winds up, lifting his outstretched lead leg high into the air in a way that makes my hamstring hurt before exploding towards the plate. Despite all the moving parts, it's not a particularly high effort operation, though he does struggle to repeat it a times and his command is below average, making his pitches play down. For now, it's a reliever profile given his two pitches, inconsistency with his command, the injury, and the fact that he's completely unproven against higher level competition, but there are reasons to hope for a starting pitcher. The Tampa native is big and strong and while he's far from a finished product, he's been steadily trending up for a long time. The Angels need to smooth out his delivery a little bit or at least help him repeat it more consistently to get his command close to average, while also getting him more consistent with his slider and helping add a changeup. It's a lot to ask from a recently-turned 22 year old working his way back from Tommy John, but if the Angels are patient, it's doable. He signed for $125,000.

17-501: RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State. Unranked.
Mason Erla was a breakout arm in 2020, posting a sparkling 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings before the season shut down. He earned looks towards the back of the five round draft, but teams weren't willing to meet his bonus demands and he returned to East Lansing for a fifth year. After posting a 3.50 ERA and an 80/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings, his profile hasn't really changed much, but the fact that he turns 24 shortly after this article is published dampens his stock. Erla has a low 90's fastball that can touch 97-98 early in starts, coming in from a low three quarters arm slot with riding action that makes it tough to square up. He adds a slider that looks sharp at times but is probably an average pitch going forward as well as a changeup, generally throwing his fair share of quality strikes for average command. Given that age, it's almost certainly a relief profile, but the 6'4" righty should be able to move very quickly in that role and watch his stuff tick up with it. For the seventeenth round, I think it's for sure an interesting bet that could help the big league bullpen out as soon as 2022. The rural Michigan native signed, but his bonus isn't publicly available or at least I couldn't find it.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (final update)

The draft is almost here, so I'll be updating this story one more time. The Nationals pick at #11 and have been almost exclusively tied to arms, so that will be the focus here, but I do see three to four bats that could make sense if the Nationals want to buck some trends (and make me happy). 

First, I'll give my opinion on who I think the Nationals should draft. There are six players who I would give virtually no chance of reaching the Nationals, and those are high school shortstops Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House, and Kahlil Watson, in addition to Vanderbilt righthander Jack Leiter and Louisville catcher Henry Davis. If one of those falls to #11, the Nationals should 100% snatch one up if the signing bonus is remotely reasonable. There's also Vanderbilt ace Kumar Rocker, who is very unlikely to be available at #11, but he seems to have at least a sliver of a chance of getting down there and I absolutely don't see the Nationals passing him up if he's available. I'd go for it in that case as well. Jackson Jobe seems to be in the same boat, but prep righthanders tend to slide in the draft and if he's available with a remotely reasonable signing bonus, again I think the Nationals should pounce. In the event that all eight are gone, which is likely, there are two college bats I think the Nationals should focus on. I'd take Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick out of the remaining players, and if he's gone along with the other eight, I'd go with UCLA shortstop Matt McLain. Then in the unlikely scenario that those are the top ten picks, I'm a bit lost because I think there's a slight break in the quality of players, so I would either pick Will Bednar or just grab Gunnar Hoglund, sign him below slot, then overspend at pick #47. Below is what would be my board if I were the Nationals picking at #11, not what I think their board is, color coded by how likely they are to be available. Red is definitely not, orange is probably not, yellow is 50-50, and green is most likely.

Marcelo Mayer, Jack Leiter, Henry Davis, Brady House, Kahlil Watson, Kumar Rocker, Jackson Jobe, Sal Frelick, Matt McLain, Will Bednar, Gunnar Hoglund

Without further introduction, here are the ten players I think the Nationals are most likely to end up with at #11, ordered by likelihood. I'm not a reporter, so these are more just guesses than anything else. Slot value is just over $4.54 million and the Nationals' overall bonus pool for their top ten rounds is $8.77 million.

1. RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS, OK
As I said in the previous paragraph, I don't think Jackson Jobe will make it out of the top ten, as he's getting interest as high as #3 to the Tigers. However, in the event that he does, I can absolutely see Mike Rizzo smashing Jobe's name into the keyboard or doing whatever he does to make his picks with extra zeal. The Oklahoma City product is relatively new to pitching, but his name has been rocketing up boards ever since his dominant summer a year ago. His fastball is now sitting comfortably in the low to mid 90's and has touched 98, but that's not his main weapon. Jobe's slider is arguably the best breaking ball in the entire high school class, coming in with absurd spin rates that cause it to shoot down and away from righties or into lefties at the last second. That feel for spin translates to his curveball, which is a distinct and above average pitch in its own right, and he possesses one of the better changeups in the high school class as well. Together with a clean delivery and notable athleticism, he consistently deals strikes and really has all the ingredients to be an impact starting pitcher. Aside from his demographic, that of an inherently risky high school righthander, Jobe only has one thing working against him – age. He'll turn 19 a few weeks after the draft, making him one of the older players in the class, but everything else is so good that that should not be a factor. He'll likely demand an enormous signing bonus, probably the highest on this list of ten, to keep from attending Mississippi, where he'll be draft-eligible as a sophomore in 2023.

2. RHP Ty Madden, Texas
2021 stats: 7-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 137/44 K/BB in 113.2 IP.
While he is getting some looks in the back of the top ten and could end up in Colorado at #8 or Los Angeles at #9, there is a very good shot that Ty Madden is available for the Nationals at #11. The unquestioned ace of the most complete pitching staff in the country (sorry, Vanderbilt), Madden is everything the Nationals love – a big, durable, consistent performer who has the look of a mid-rotation starter. He combines arm strength with pitchability, creating the type of pitcher that does not grow on trees. Madden's fastball comes in with low to mid 90's velocity, getting up to 99 at times early in games, and he adds a potentially plus slider that plays very well off his fastball. His changeup can be a bit inconsistent, but when it's on, it gives him a third potentially above average pitch, which will help him pitch deep into games. He commands all three pitches very well, pounding the bottom of the strike zone and missing bats in bunches. If there's anything to nitpick with the Houston-area native, it's something called his VAA, or vertical approach angle. Because the 6'3" righty comes from such a high release point, everything he throws has significant downward plane, which plays very well around hitters knees and below. However, he has gotten hit harder when he leaves pitches up, and in today's launch angle-conscious game that has more hitters going for high VBA's – vertical barrel angles, – it will be especially difficult for him to be effective in that part of the zone in pro ball. Fortunately, his command means that he won't miss his spots often, and his velocity gives him some margin for error.

3. RHP Sam Bachman, Miami [OH]
2021 stats: 4-4, 1.81 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 93/17 K/BB in 59.2 IP.
Sam Bachman's draft outlook is probably about the same as Madden's with some teams interested in the back of the top ten but a good chance of reaching #11. If both he and Madden are available for the Nationals, it will be an interesting decision for Rizzo, as both pitchers seem to fit his models but for very different reasons. While Madden is durable and consistent, Bachman is more of a power arm that comes with significant durability questions, but we know Rizzo has never been one to shy away from injured or potentially-injury prone arms. Bachman's raw stuff is elite, perhaps the best in the entire class outside of the Vanderbilt duo of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. The 6'1" righty deals regularly in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 101, but it's not just the velocity that makes it a special pitch. He also comes from an extremely low release point while still maintaining a three quarters arm slot, putting tremendous ride on the pitch that makes it play exceptionally well up in the zone. And with his velocity, even when he misses over the plate, it's tough to square up. Bachman also adds a plus slider that breaks late and tight, playing well off the fastball. As with Madden, his changeup has been a bit less consistent, but it too flashes above average and like Madden, he could have three plus pitches at the major league level. While he doesn't quite parallel the Longhorn ace in the command arena, his ability to hit his spots is trending upwards and he fills up the strike zone very consistently, setting himself apart from other data-friendly power arms. The drawback here is durability, as the Indianapolis-area native throws with considerable effort and some evaluators don't like his arm action. Additionally, he missed a few weeks this spring with arm soreness and I don't think he ever threw 100 pitches in a game, so he comes with considerable relief risk even if the pure stuff and command fit in the rotation. Personally, I'd pull the trigger on Bachman before Madden, but I'm not sure about Rizzo.

4. SS Matt McLain, UCLA
2021 stats: 9 HR, .333/.434/.579, 9 SB, 34/34 K/BB in 47 games.
Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Sam Bachman seem like the clear frontrunners to me, so after those three this list definitely becomes guesswork. If the Nationals were to pass on an arm and pick up a bat, UCLA shortstop Matt McLain seems like the most likely bet to me. He was extremely well regarded coming out of his Los Angeles-area high school, but surprisingly turned down the Diamondbacks after being drafted 25th overall in 2018. His time at UCLA has been up and down, but there have been more ups and than downs and he was on a tear before going down with a broken thumb in May, then picked up where he left off in a brief return. Though he's just 5'11" and skinny at that, he has always possessed great feel to hit and has learned to drive the ball more and more consistently throughout his time in Los Angeles, now projecting for at least average power. He also tightened up the strike zone in 2021, aiding projections for a plus hit tool, and his plus speed enables him to be a factor on the basepaths. The jury is still out on whether he can stick at shortstop long term, as he has the athleticism to profile there but his feel for the spot has been inconsistent. Either way, he profiles as a plus defender at second base, so you're getting significant value on the defensive side to go along with his top-of-the-lineup offensive upside. Personally, I'd prefer McLain over both Madden and Bachman.

5. RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State
2021 stats: 9-1, 3.12 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 139/26 K/BB in 92.1 IP.
When I first started working on this list, I didn't include Will Bednar, despite the fact that I personally would have considered him at #11 if I were picking. However, after dominating at the College World Series and allowing no hits in the final game, he seems to be much more of a realistic target for Mike Rizzo and co. Bednar has been trending straight up since he landed in Starkville with a 2.93 ERA and a 37% strikeout rate (162 in 107.2 innings) against top competition, and he can attack hitters in a lot of ways. His main weapon is a low to mid 90's fastball that can hit 96-97 early in games but usually settles into the 91-94 range, playing up because it has tremendous riding life that plays extremely well up in the zone. He adds a plus slider with extreme horizontal sweep, then can go to an average curve and changeup that he uses significantly less often. While the Pittsburgh-area native doesn't have pinpoint command, he generally fills up the strike zone and has gotten better at locating his pitches to all four quadrants even as his stuff has leapt forward. He has a durable 6'2" frame and looks the part of a #2 starter.

6. OF Sal Frelick, Boston College
2021 stats: 6 HR, .359/.443/.559, 13 SB, 28/27 K/BB in 48 games.
Sal Frelick's draft stock is in a similar place to McLain's, if perhaps a tick better, and I would prefer Frelick if both he and McLain were available. In fact, among the players with any significant chance to reach the Nationals at pick #11, Frelick is the one I want. He elevated his profile this year by coming out of the gate hot when most other first round bats stumbled, and he maintained the hot hitting to finish the season hitting .359/.443/.559 with just a 12.3% strikeout rate. Undersized at 5'9", he's an elite athlete that plays with a ton of energy, giving him the ability to impact the game in numerous ways. He makes a ton of contact with plus bat to ball skills and excellent adjustability in his left handed swing that helps him find the barrel even against tough pitches, and when he gets one over the plate, he has enough power to make you pay. The Boston-area native is a plus runner that will gladly steal a base or two and will stick in center field, though some have toyed with trying him at second base. Personally, I'd just leave him at center and let him run wild. If the Nationals drafted him, he would immediately become the most dynamic player in their system.

7. RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
2021 stats: 4-2, 2.87 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 96/17 K/BB in 62.2 IP.
#11 overall might be a bit early to nab a pitcher fresh off spring Tommy John surgery, but Mike Rizzo has never shied away from injured pitchers early in the draft and depending on who's available here, I wouldn't mind the pick either. Aside from a healthy right arm, Gunnar Hoglund has everything you look for in a starting pitching prospect – velocity, two offspeed pitches, command, a clean delivery, consistent performance, and an upward trajectory. His fastball previously sat effortlessly around 90, but the 6'4" righty added some juice in 2021 and ticked up to about 92-94, touching as high as 97 early in games. After mostly pitching off his fastball early in his career, he began to lean more on an improved slider in 2021 that touched the upper 80's, getting consistently above average grades. And as the season moved on, he began incorporating a surprisingly good changeup more and more, giving him three above average pitches to work with. On top of all of that, he has regularly been noted as having some of the best command in the class, easily locating all of his pitches where he wants them. There are no weaknesses in this profile and given that Tommy John is becoming more and more of a regularity, the Tampa-area native could present Rizzo with a really interesting discount option. From there, Mike can overspend at pick #47, perhaps on a high school arm like Frank Mozzicato, Ben Kudrna, or Maddux Bruns, though I would personally prefer Mozzicato or Kudrna to Bruns (and I'd prefer a high school bat over all three of them, though I doubt Rizzo would go that route).

8. OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State
2021 stats: 16 HR, .374/.490/.680, 17 SB, 32/42 K/BB in 55 games.
Fun fact, Colton Cowser was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs, and they were actually the third and fourth best prospects on that team at the time behind 2019 draftees JJ Goss (Rays, 36th overall) and Matthew Thompson (White Sox, 45th overall). He's been on a tear since late March, once homering four times in two games and another time going deep in five consecutive games, all while pushing his on-base percentage close to .500. Evaluators have long been waiting for him to grow into his 6'3" frame and start tapping his power, and he showed this year he has a chance to be average in that regard. Cowser is also an excellent contact hitter who consistently puts together professional at bats, showing that with significantly more walks (42) than strikeouts (32) in 2021. Though he wasn't facing the toughest competition in the Southland Conference, he did perform well with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019, so evaluators are very comfortable with his offensive profile. He's also an above average runner who can swipe a base and be a net-positive in the outfield, where he projects as a fringy centerfielder or an above average corner guy. Cowser profiles as a potential leadoff guy who can hit 15-20 home runs per season for the Nationals down the line.

9. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
2021 stats: 14-4, 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP.
I think it's highly unlikely Kumar Rocker makes it all the way to the Nationals. There has been some talk of him going as high as fifth overall to the Orioles, while the Diamondbacks at #6 and the Royals at #7 have shown interest as well. But if the chips fall that way and Rocker gets out of the top ten, I absolutely do not see Mike Rizzo letting him go any further. At this point, we all know the book on Kumar. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's deep into games, with his extension making the pitch play up. Rocker's slider is one of the best pitches in college baseball when he's commanding it, making even advanced hitters look like absolute fools. He throws a cutter that has a chance to be an above average pitch and while he has shown a changeup in the past, he didn't use it much in 2021 and it wasn't particularly effective when he broke it out late in the season. Rocker has also been noted as a control-over-command pitcher throughout his career, one who has no trouble filling up the strike zone or eliciting chases but who struggles to hit spots within the zone. Regardless, his exceptional track record in the SEC and strong makeup that enables him to step up when the lights shine the brightest will not be lost on scouting directors come draft day, and the stuff is so good that he can afford merely average command in pro ball and still succeed. If the command steps up from 50 to 55, he'll be an ace.

10. RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS, FL
Eleventh overall feels a touch too early to grab Andrew Painter, but Mike Rizzo loves himself a high school pitcher and if Jackson Jobe is off the board, he could come into consideration. Painter entered the spring as the top pitching prospect in the high school class, but a combination of a loud spring from Jobe and a slow start for Painter changed that. He turned it around as the season went on, helping most traditional evaluators feel comfortable that he is still the second best. Painter is a huge, 6'6" righthander that combines physical projection with present stuff and pitchability. His fastball gets up to 95-96 without much effort, and he holds the low 90's deep into games. The South Florida product adds a pair of distinct, above average breaking balls, while his changeup is more advanced than that of most high school pitchers. He commands everything well, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile at a young age that reminds some of Mick Abel a year ago, albeit with less glowing numbers on the analytic side. The reason Painter might belong closer to the back of the first round is just that, the analytics, as some see a more traditional arsenal that doesn't stand out in today's game of high spin rates. Personally, I see Gage Jump and Chase Petty as the second and third best high school pitchers in the class, but my guess is the Nationals have Painter as #2 behind Jobe. He'll likely be an expensive sign with a Florida commitment, but at #11, I don't see him going above slot value.

Potential Second Round Targets

I mentioned a few times that the Nationals might elect to save some money early on with a pick like Gunnar Hoglund or Gavin Williams, or perhaps even on any number of other players on this list not named Jobe or Rocker (albeit less), and that would enable them to go after an expensive high schooler in the second round at pick #47. Knowing the Nationals, that would likely be a high school pitcher. Some options there:

LHP Frank Mozzicato, East Catholic HS, CT
Mozzicato has been flying up boards late in the spring once the Connecticut high school season finally got started, absolutely dominating his Hartford-area competition with a low 90's fastball and one of the best curveballs in the high school class. He's young for the class and has projection remaining in his 6'3" frame, but that projection is important considering he only tops out at 93 as of now. He's a UConn recruit.

RHP Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS, KS
Kudrna hasn't burst onto the scene quite like Mozzicato, but he's been quietly sliding up boards for a long time now. His fastball has ticked up into the mid 90's and he fills up the strike zone with an above average slider and changeup, all from a clean, repeatable delivery. The Kansas City-area product doesn't quite have the bat-missing stuff to project as an ace, but he has a higher floor than most high school pitchers. He's committed to LSU.

LHP Maddux Bruns, UMS-Wright Prep HS, AL
Named after Greg Maddux, this 6'2" lefty has a bit of a different profile. The Mobile native has huge raw stuff, led by a fastball that has reportedly touches the upper 90's, as well as a plus curveball and an above average slider. It's power, power, power, but at this point he has extremely inconsistent command that can be anywhere from average to non-playable. Bruns is one day shy of a full year older than Mozzicato, so he's already 19 and will be draft-eligible after two years at Mississippi State if he gets there. I would prefer both Mozzicato and Kudrna heavily to Bruns.

This is an extremely deep class of high school bats, so there will undoubtedly be numerous available at #47 that really shouldn't be there. They'll be very expensive at this point and will require an above-slot bonus, but if the Nationals save money at pick #11, they should be able to get one. I think it's much more likely they go for a pitcher, but I would really like one of the bats.

SS Max Muncy, Thousand Oaks HS, CA
No, not that Max Muncy. This Muncy (no relation) really stands out for his feel for the game, and even if he's not the most athletic player in the class, he understands his body and maximizes the production he gets out of his 6'1" frame. He has a chance to be a very well-rounded player who could improve quickly with pro coaching and conditioning. He's committed to Arkansas.

3B Wes Kath, Desert Mountain HS, AZ
Kath has been trending up this spring as one of the most well-rounded bats in the West. He combines a strong feel to hit with impressive raw power in his sturdy, 6'3" frame, giving him the chance for both high on-base percentages and high slugging percentages. He has the arm for third base and may be able to stick there. Kath is an Arizona State commit.

SS James Triantos, James Madison HS, VA
Okay, pick #47 might be just a little bit rich for James Triantos, but we have to include the local kid. Oh yeah, and he plays at my alma mater and I used to take batting practice in his backyard, so while I haven't seen him hit since he was in middle school, I'm following this one pretty closely. Triantos has absolutely ripped the cover off the ball this spring, helping lead Madison High School in Vienna to its first state championship since 2015, a team which I was on. He produces great leverage through the zone that gives him power to all fields, and he simply hasn't swung and missed this spring, either. He's probably a third baseman long term and while he's a UNC commit, signability likely won't be an issue this early.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten players to watch this college season

The 2021 college baseball season is about to kick off, which means our draft rankings are about to get thrown for a loop. Every year, some top prospects underperform, while others come from nowhere into the spotlight. Meanwhile, some players come into the season with very straightforward profiles. We know Kumar Rocker and Ty Madden are going to shove, and we know Adrian Del Castillo and Matt McLain are going to hit. Game to game, of course scouts will have an eye on everything, but for the most part they know what to expect. They want to make sure Rocker fills up the strike zone consistently, maybe hoping for a few more swings and misses on his fastball, you know, the normal stuff. We're hoping McLain can draw a few more walks, but again, we're not expecting to see anything unexpected.

This list is for ten players who have a much wider range of plausible outcomes in 2021. Whether that's due to injuries, inconsistency, or something else, all eyes will be on these players' every move as scouts try to determine just what kind of prospects they are. Of course, I have a couple dozen I'd like to include here, so this is far from as exhaustive as I'd like to be. If you're a college baseball fan, here are ten players to keep an extra close eye on as the season gets underway.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.
You had to know this one was coming. A top 100 prospect coming out of Ashdown High School outside Texarkana in 2018, Jaden Hill battled injuries in 2019 and the pandemic shut him down in 2020, so he has just 21.2 collegiate innings to his name. That said, those 21.2 innings were absolutely electric. The 6'4" righty showed up on campus with a big fastball/changeup combination, with the former now reaching the upper 90's and the latter looking like a plus pitch. He's since improved a devastating slider that flashes plus-plus at times, and he's been developing a shorter cutter to give hitters yet another look. On top of it all, he's shown the ability to harness and command his stuff despite its rapid improvement and his lack of consistent innings. Pitch for pitch, Hill has some of the most electric stuff in the class, but of course we know scouts would be much more confident if he showed he could hold it over a full season. 2021 will be his chance to do so, and if his stuff is as loud in July as it is in February, Hill could very well go first overall. He's that good.

OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
2019-2020: 9 HR, .301/.389/.470, 13 SB, 74/33 K/BB in 75 games.
Arkansas is known for its high powered offenses, producing big bats like Brian Anderson, Andrew Benintendi, Dominic Fletcher, Heston Kjerstad, and Casey Martin in recent years, with Benintendi and Kjerstad going in the top ten picks. As of now, Franklin fits more in the back of the first round or early second, but he absolutely has the ability to propel himself into the Benintendi/Kjerstad range. After holding his own as an SEC freshman in 2019 (6 HR, .274/.362/.419), he was off to a hot start in 2020 (3 HR, .381/.467/.619) and will look to build on that in 2021. Though he stands just 5'11", the Kansas City native has plus raw power from the right side that he can tap with explosive hands. He needs to add some loft to his swing, but Franklin already hits screaming line drives that regularly find holes and carry out over the fence anyways. He's also a plus runner who will stick in center field, adding to his upside. The biggest thing scouts want to see from the young outfielder will be plate discipline, as he can get over aggressive and swing through or chase quality stuff at times. That's the biggest thing holding him back right now, but even small improvement in that area likely lands him in the first round. Take a big step forward in that regard, and Franklin has the tools to challenge Jud Fabian, Adrian Del Castillo, Alex Binelas, and Matt McLain as the top hitter in the college class.

OF Isaiah Thomas, Vanderbilt
2019-2020: 7 HR, .300/.349/.590, 4 SB, 24/4 K/BB in 37 games.
I see numerous parallels between Christian Franklin and Isaiah Thomas, though the latter finds himself perhaps half a round behind his SEC counterpart at this point due to less of a track record. Currently more of a second rounder, Thomas, not to be confused with the NBA all star of the same name, could rocket into the first round with a strong spring. His explosive right handed bat can send baseballs traveling out of the park at high speeds, and that plus raw power has played in his small sample of games so far. The South Florida native also shows above average speed and a strong arm in center field, all a product of a wiry, athletic 6'2" frame. The main drawback in Thomas' game at this point is an extremely aggressive approach, one that has limited him to just four walks in 37 games but to this point has not impacted his production. If he can even show moderately improved patience in 2021, he has the chance to fly well into the first round with the strong performance he's capable of. Thomas has a chance to be a legitimate five tool player.

RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
2019-2020: 7-5, 5.63 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB in 88 IP.
Ryan Cusick is one of my favorite arms in this class. A product of Avon Old Farms School in Connecticut that produced George Springer and Orioles 2020 second rounder Hudson Haskin (via Tulane), Cusick has been up and down during his time at Wake Forest. He was hittable as a freshman, then as a sophomore he struck out 41.7% of his opponents but also walked 17.5%, both extremely high numbers. His game is very inconsistent in all respects, but when he's on, he's on. At best, the 6'6" righty can touch 97-98 with his fastball and sit in the mid 90's for innings at a time, putting great ride on the ball that makes it nearly impossible to square up. He drops in a slider that flashes legitimate plus, as well as a developing changeup and curveball. However, the fastball velocity has been known to dip closer to 90 at times, while the slider regularly flattens out into a below average pitch. The Massachusetts native showed well below average command in the brief 2020 season, but it looked closer to average in a brilliant summer turn through the Coastal Plain League, so it's hard to know what to make of his strike throwing ability. For all of those reasons, scouts will be keeping a very close eye on each of Cusick's starts, watching how his velocity holds, how consistently he can snap off that slider, what his command looks like, and whether he can take a step forward with his changeup or curveball. There are many moving parts here, but if he can get the most out of his exceptional natural ability, we could be looking at a top ten pick later on. Or conversely, Cusick could push himself out of Day One contention entirely.

RHP Sam Bachman, Miami (OH)
2019-2020: 8-3, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 106/45 K/BB in 99.1 IP.
Here we get to one of this fall's fastest risers. Looking at his stat line above against a tame MAC schedule, Sam Bachman doesn't look special, but I assure you he is. The Indianapolis-area native previously worked with a low 90's fastball, but he's been bumping the mid 90's more often and reportedly hit triple digits in fall practice. That pitch plays up further because of his unique data, crouching down in his delivery and coming from a low three quarters angle to create an extremely low release point without actually having to go sidearm. From there, its high spin rates give it immense ride up in the zone, making it one of the best fastballs in the class. He also adds a short, cutter-like slider that plays above average and flashes plus, and his fading changeup gives him a third above average pitch. Bachman's command has been steadily improving from average to above average to even plus at times, maximizing his ability to tunnel his pitches off each other. His fall blew some evaluators away, so they'll want to see him maintain that uptick in stuff and command in the spring. If the stocky 6'1" righty can maintain even close to what showed, it's a legitimate first round projection.

RHP Eric Cerantola, Mississippi State
2019-2020: 1-1, 3.70 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 43/22 K/BB in 31.2 IP.
Here's yet another really interesting one. Eric Cerantola is a huge, 6'5" Canadian right hander with some crazy data behind his stuff. On the surface, he does not look like a Day One prospect, with a scattered track record of 31.2 moderately successful innings. The Toronto-area native has a very slow, deliberate delivery with very inconsistent arm slots and command, giving the impression that he doesn't actually have much feel for his lanky limbs or delivery. However, this is one of the more talented right arms in the class. While working in the low 90's as a starter, Cerantola dialed his fastball up to 98 in fall practice and the pitch plays up with tough angle. He also adds a curveball that flashes true plus, a low to mid 80's hammer with ridiculously high spin rates, and that's the pitch that makes him so interesting. Add in what could be an above average changeup, and you have some of the best stuff in the class from a 6'5" righty. This spring, evaluators will be watching to see how he holds up under a full time starting role. That means both the stuff, including velocity on his fastball and bite on his curveball, and command, the latter of which he has no track record of consistency with. If Cerantola can prove he can start, he suddenly becomes a first round candidate, though for now he fits better in the second.

OF Levi Usher, Louisville
2020: 2 HR, .411/.484/.571, 11 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 16 G.
Levi Usher comes to Louisville from Kirkwood CC in Iowa, where he obliterated opposing pitching to the tune of a .409/.493/.538 line in 53 games. He continued just the same for the Cardinals, where he hit .411/.484/.571 in 16 games. However, two uninspiring runs through the Northwoods League in 2019 and 2020 (combined .261/.337/.373) temper excitement just a little, leaving evaluators ready to watch his 2021 at bats very closely. Usher has a broad base of above average tools, showing nice pure hitting ability, speed, and power. The hitting ability and speed (47 SB between Kirkwood and Louisville) have played up exceptionally well against weaker opponents, and there is enough strength packed into his 6' frame to project at least average power. To this point, he has shown an aggressive approach that limits his walks and causes some minor swing and miss concerns, so tightening that up will help scouts feel more comfortable his approach will hold up in pro ball. Additionally, the so-so performance in the Northwoods League raises slight concerns about how his power will play with wood bats, but unlike the approach questions, there's not much he can do about that one with metal bats at Louisville aside from just hit for more power. With his lack of track record at the Division I level and especially his lack of track record in conference play, Usher's 2021 could go a lot of different ways. Sort of like Kameron Misner a couple years ago, though Misner ended up slumping through SEC play.

RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia
2020: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 12/2 K/BB in 11.1 IP.
Georgia pitching is on a strong draft run over the last three years. In 2019, it was Tony Locey (third round) and Tim Elliott (fourth round), and in 2020, it was Emerson Hancock (first round) and Cole Wilcox (third round). In 2021, Georgia could have two more, with Ryan Webb and draft-eligible sophomore Jonathan Cannon. Cannon worked in long relief on that deep Georgia pitching staff last year, and looked brilliant in five appearances. He's a lanky, 6'6" right hander with some of the louder stuff in the SEC, touching 96-97 with his fastball and adding an above average slider and a potentially plus changeup. Additionally, he flashes solid-average command, which is pretty impressive for a young lanky pitcher. The Atlanta-area native has all of the ingredients necessary to be an impact starting pitcher, but he has to put it together consistently in 2021 in order to go in the first round. It's one thing to flash three above average pitches and average command in 11.2 innings of long relief, but it's another to hold that over 5-6 innings a start for a full season. If he does, we have a first rounder. He won't turn 21 until after the draft, making him one of the younger college arms available, yet he's already looked fairly advanced in his small sample.

LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati
2019-2020: 5-8, 5.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 104/57 K/BB in 84.1 IP.
For the most part, Kansas State's Jordan Wicks is regarded as the best college lefthander in the class, with Michigan's Steven Hajjar, Mississippi State's Christian MacLeod, and Texas' Pete Hansen making up the group right behind him. However, those who value pitch data would through another name into that ring, Cincinnati's Evan Shawver. The Cleveland-area native was not a big name recruit and struggled as a freshman (7.15 ERA, 69/48 K/BB), but he's quietly built up his draft stock in the time since then and put up a 1.59 ERA and a 35/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings in 2020, including five hitless innings against Florida State. Shawver is an undersized lefty at a listed 6', 175 pounds, so he makes up for his lack of size in other ways. His fastball sits in the low 90's, but he can reach back for 95-97 and the spin rates on the pitch make it play up. He also drops in a potentially plus slider with late movement and an above average changeup, giving him plenty of weapons with which to attack hitters. Shawver has refined his command considerably since making it to campus, now comfortably average, something that will be very important as his size brings relief questions. If the little lefty can hold his command and stuff over a full season in 2021, he has a chance to shed those relief questions and move into the first round range.

OF John Rhodes, Kentucky
2020: 1 HR, .426/.485/.672, 1 SB, 5/2 K/BB in 17 games.
Out of everyone on this list, John Rhodes is probably the one we know the least about. With pitchers, we can still watch them pitch in small samples and see their stuff, but hitting is reactive, and Rhodes hasn't put up a big enough sample for evaluators to get a strong feel for his ability. That's why his 2021 will be watched so closely. The Chattanooga native arrived on campus without a ton of fanfare, but ripped .426/.485/.672 with twelve extra base hits and just five strikeouts in seventeen games before the shutdown in 2020. He kept hitting in the Northwoods League over the summer (.378/.495/.500 in 27 games), and with an August birthday, he's one of the youngest draft-eligible sophomores in the class. Rhodes isn't huge at a listed 6', 200 pounds, but he finds the barrel extremely easily from the right side with a disciplined approach that will always enable him to post high on-base percentages. So far, his power has played mostly to the gaps and it's not clear how much over-the-fence pop he'll develop, but he could provide some clarity on that in 2021. The development of his power, as well as whether his exceptional on-base ability holds up against that gauntlet of SEC pitching, will determine whether Rhodes can crack the top fifty picks this summer.

Others

LHP Steven Hajjar (Michigan): 6'5" lefty that has flashed plus stuff, but has limited track record after an ACL injury wiped out his true freshman season. Huge ceiling if he performs up to his potential.

C Luca Tresh (North Carolina State): Power hitting catcher trending up after a huge fall, will take over for 2020 first rounder Patrick Bailey behind the plate in Raleigh. Scouts want to see him make enough contact to tap his big power as well as continued progress in his glove.

OF Robby Martin (Florida State): Outfielder that has gotten bigger at FSU, growing into power but still has a line drive/opposite field approach. He's not quite as advanced as JJ Bleday was entering his junior season two years ago, but Martin really reminds me of Bleday at that time, before the big power breakout.

RHP Tommy Mace (Florida): Senior college starter who was arguably the best undrafted college player last year, betting on himself for another go around. Reportedly has seen the uptick in stuff scouts had been waiting for since his high school days, needs to prove it over a full season to maintain prospect status.

RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina): Another top undrafted arm, huge 6'6", 240 pound right hander with a fastball that can creep into triple digits. Also shows a big curve and advanced changeup, but has battled injuries at ECU and never put together a full season.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the low-mid major conferences (east)

 Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on January 1st.

We’ve completed the Power Five conferences, so now it’s time to move into some low-mid major schools. There are plenty of powerhouse programs in the east that don’t fall into the ACC, SEC, or Big Ten, including a Coastal Carolina team that won the College World Series in 2016. Some of MLB’s brightest stars came from these smaller eastern conferences, including Justin Verlander (Old Dominion), Jacob deGrom (Stetson), Corey Kluber (Stetson), Kyle Hendricks (Dartmouth), George Springer (Connecticut), and Kyle Lewis (Mercer), among many many others. Here we find a ton of interesting arms, including quite a few with first round aspirations, as well as a group of bats driven by big raw power.

1. OF Ethan Wilson, South Alabama

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 210 lbs. Born 11/7/1999. Hometown: Andalusia, AL
2019-2020: 20 HR, .330/.425/.632, 12 SB, 65/40 K/BB in 74 games.

In 2018, South Alabama outfielder Travis Swaggerty closed out an exceptional Jaguars career with a tenth overall selection to the Pirates. Three years later, Ethan Wilson has a chance to match him. The Andalusia native burst onto the scene with a massive freshman season in 2019, slashing .345/.453/.686 with 17 home runs and a 45/36 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games, but dropped to a more pedestrian .282/.329/.465 with three home runs and a 20/4 K/BB in the shortened 2020 season. In a class that’s shallow on college bats, Wilson is a proven commodity with some of the best in-season track record around.

Wilson is a hitter, no question about it. He produces plus raw and game power with an explosive, leveraged, and controlled left handed swing that has no problem catching up to velocity. He shows great feel for the barrel and has never actually struggled at any point in his career. To this point, he has shown some swing and miss against offspeed stuff, but scouts aren’t all that worried. As a mediocre defender who will likely end up in left field, his bat will have to carry him and few doubt that it will.

Given Wilson’s lack of defensive value, scouts need to see him continue to produce in 2021. The Sun Belt has plenty of talent, but it’s not the SEC or ACC and without ever having appeared in a major summer wood bat league, he’s fairly unproven against great pitching. Given his high swing and miss rates against offspeed stuff, that’s slightly concerning, but he can answer all those questions against South Alabama’s non-conference slate in 2021 or against schools like Coastal Carolina and Louisiana in conference play. Given that he won’t require much swing change in pro ball, he can also focus on that aspect of his game heavily once in there. Overall, it’s easy to envision a true impact hitter with 25+ home run potential and good on-base percentages, one that fits firmly in the first round.

2. RHP Sam Bachman, Miami (OH)

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 235 lbs. Born 9/30/1999. Hometown: Fishers, IN

2019-2020: 8-3, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 106/45 K/BB in 99.1 IP.

Southern Ohio is filled with interesting mid-major arms, but none is more interesting nor a better prospect at this point than Sam Bachman. He was solid as a freshman (3.93 ERA, 75/39 K/BB), then after getting shelled by Texas A&M to open 2020, he had a 1.71 ERA and a 28/2 K/BB across the next 21 innings to close out the season. Bachman was a solid Day One prospect at that point, but he’s had one of the loudest falls in the country and has rocketed into the first round conversation.

Bachman is unique if nothing else. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and tops out around 96 in games, but he’s been up to 99 in fall practice and his pitch data is astounding. After some stabbing motion in the back, he crouches down in his delivery and releases the ball from sidearm height despite throwing from a three quarters slot, putting absolutely tremendous ride and carry on the pitch. It’s one of the most unique fastballs in the class and is extremely difficult to square up. After that, he adds a short slider that almost functions more like a cutter, a pitch that’s above average now but could get to plus with more refinement. His changeup looks like an above average pitch as well with nice running action to the arm side.

So far, the Indianapolis-area native hasn’t gotten much in terms of big results, but as he continues to optimize his stuff, he could get there in 2021. Bachman’s command has improved from 45 in 2019 to 50 in 2020 to 55 in fall practice, and if he can stay in that above average range over a full season, he could push way up boards. His fastball, slider, and changeup all play off each other extremely well, with the unique arm slot making them very difficult to tell apart. As he refines his command, that will only get tougher. Otherwise, continued refinement of his slider is on the docket for 2021, as he could get even more effective by learning to add and subtract depth to what’s currently a pretty short breaker.

3. RHP Mason Black, Lehigh

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 210 lbs. Born 12/10/1999. Hometown: Archbald, PA

2019-2020: 4-2, 4.09 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 57/20 K/BB in 55 IP.

The best college arm in the Northeast is not at a traditional power like Maryland, Boston College, UConn, or Bryant. Rather, Lehigh’s Mason Black has used two exceptional summers to rocket himself into the first round conversation. His numbers against Lehigh’s weaker schedule have been decent (4.09 ERA, 57/20 K/BB), but he really broke out in the Cape Cod League in 2019 with a 1.43 ERA and a 39/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.2 innings as a rising sophomore. He backed that up with another fantastic run through the South Florida Collegiate League in 2020, with a 0.64 ERA, just a 0.71 WHIP, and a 42/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings.

Black hasn’t quite gotten it done in the Patriot League, but there’s every reason to believe he will in 2021. His three pitch arsenal is highlighted by a low to mid 90’s fastball that has peaked at 97-99 in short stints, playing up further because he gets good extension and downward plane on it. His breaking ball can fluctuate between a slider and a curveball, but it’s best when it’s more of a true slider and flashes plus potential. Lastly, his changeup is advanced as well, showing nice vertical drop and giving him a third swing and miss offering. Together with solid-average command, Black can dominate anybody at his best.

In 2021, Black will have to put up better numbers in the Patriot League. His loud summers have him firmly in the first round, but to stay there, he can’t have a third consecutive “solid” college season against mediocre competition. He needs to mow his opponents down. His inconsistency does create some reliever risk, but with a long 6’3″ frame, three potential plus pitches, and good-enough command, he has every chance to not only start, but pitch near the top of a rotation. A smart kid as well, the Scranton-area native is majoring in bioengineering and has floated the idea of medical school if baseball doesn’t work out.

4. C Hunter Goodman, Memphis

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 210 lbs. Born 10/8/1999. Hometown: Arlington, TN

2019-2020: 21 HR, .333/.378/.612, 13 SB, 71/14 K/BB in 72 games.

Hunter Goodman gets a tough draw coming in fourth on this list, getting stuck behind an offensive stud and a couple of electric arms. Still, we’re talking about a very exciting profile here. Goodman has absolutely raked at Memphis, slashing .333/.378/.612 with 21 home runs in 72 games, including eight in sixteen games in 2020. He also showed well in the Cape Cod League in 2019, where he hit .272/.287/.487 with eight home runs in 44 games. From a catcher, that’s a track record of in-game power that you’ll take eleven times out of ten, but we do have some questions.

Any conversation around Goodman begins with his power. He shows plus to even plus-plus raw power in his 6’1″ frame, and to this point, that has played up to true plus power in games as well. He has a smooth, leveraged right handed swing that makes the ball jump off his bat, though in games he can stray away from it time to time and get choppy. The hit tool is more of a question. He has struck out in north of 20% of his plate appearances in college, and on the Cape, it was up to 27.5%. The Memphis-area native is also a very aggressive hitter that rarely walks, just 4.2% at Memphis and 1.8% (!) on the Cape. It says a lot about Goodman’s feel for the barrel that he’s produced like he’s had with such a hyper-aggressive approach, even on the Cape, but it still has to worry you a bit for pro ball.

Defensively, there are more questions. Nobody questions his cannon arm that can shut down the running game when he’s accurate, and that alone gives him every chance to stick back there. The glove is still a work in progress, as he’s not the most athletic back there and lacks overall feel for the position. If Goodman can stick behind the plate, his bat is very, very attractive in the first round, but if he’s forced to first base or the outfield, the offensive bar rises. An optimist might look at Goodman’s power and see Joey Bart, who made strides with his plate discipline and defense as a junior and went second overall out of Georgia Tech in 2018. Meanwhile, a pessimist might worry about his defense and ability to get to his power and see more of Bart’s teammate, Kyle McCann, who was a much more patient (and left handed) hitter than Goodman and went in the fourth round a year later.

5. RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’6″, 255 lbs. Born 7/26/1999. Hometown: Fayetteville, NC

2018-2020: 1-4, 3.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 70/32 K/BB in 68 IP.

I’ve written a lot of words about Gavin Williams over the years. He was one of the most projectable high school arms in the country coming out of Fayetteville, North Carolina back in 2017, but headed just up the road to East Carolina instead. There, he’s added a few ticks to his fastball as promised, but has never quite put it together with a 3.57 ERA and a 70/32 strikeout to walk ratio across 68 innings, missing time with various injuries including a finger issue that limited him to three innings in 2020. He went undrafted that year, instead choosing to price himself out and bet on his natural ability.

Williams a skinny 6’5″ string bean coming out of high school, and four years later he’s listed at 6’6″, 255 pounds. He’s a big man with a big fastball to match, sitting in the low to mid 90’s with minimal effort and consistently hitting the upper 90’s. When he does reach back, he’s hit 101 in the past. That fastball comes with an above average changeup with great sink and fade, coming in with mid 80’s velocity. His curveball brings great depth, but with mid 70’s velocity that could stand to add a tick or two. His control is actually solid average, but has been inconsistent throughout his career.

Some evaluators, myself included, look at the big 6’6″ right hander and think he just needs more consistent innings. If he can stay on the mound for longer stretches at a time, I could see more consistent command and perhaps some added power on his breaking ball, but he threw just 15.2, 49.1, and 3 innings, respectively, in his three years in Greenville. At this point, it’s probably safer to project him as a reliever and let his stuff tick up from there, but I haven’t given up on him as a starter. I wouldn’t bank on it if I drafted him, but it could happen with three big league pitches and the building blocks for solid command. With a July birthday, he was young for his class last year and isn’t much older than many first-time eligible players.

6. LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati

Bat: R. Throw: L. 6′, 175 lbs. Born 9/11/1999. Hometown: Amherst, OH

2019-2020: 5-8, 5.66 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 104/57 K/BB in 84.1 IP.

Sam Bachman isn’t the only fast-rising mid major arm in Southwest Ohio. Cincinnati’s Evan Shawver’s stock isn’t rocketing at warp speed like Bachman’s, but the more evaluators see of him, the more they like. He was very inconsistent as a freshman, putting up a 7.15 ERA and a 69/48 strikeout to walk ratio in 61.2 innings, but looked much sharper in the shortened 2020 season: 1.59 ERA, 35/9 K/BB in 22.2 IP. Between his freshman season/short Cape run and his sophomore season/junior fall, the Cleveland-area native has dramatically reduced the baserunners around him both by limiting walks and avoiding barrels. In 2021, he’ll have a full season to show that he’s for real and here to stay.

Shawver starts with a low 90’s fastball that tops out around 97. He throws two secondaries in a slider and a changeup, both of which could be above average to plus pitches. His slider is extremely difficult to pick up out of his hand with late diving action, routinely running under right handed hitters’ hands or disappearing away from lefties. The changeup itself brings late fade, and it too is tough to pick up. Shawver had problems finding the strike zone at times as a freshman, but he dropped his walk rate from 16.6% in 2019 to 10.2% in 2020 while simultaneously cutting his opponents’ batting average nearly in half from .234 to .128.

In 2021, scouts want to see that his transition from fringy to solid average command can hold up over a full season. He’s not the biggest guy in the world, listed at a skinny six feet tall, and needs to continue to prove his durability as well, though it hasn’t been an issue yet. With three pitches that can grade out as 55 or better in addition to improving command, he has a chance to overtake Kansas State’s Jordan Wicks as the top lefty college arm in the class.

7. LHP Drake Batcho, Cincinnati

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’4″, 215 lbs. Born 4/17/2000. Hometown: Warren, OH

2019-2020: 3-5, 6.89 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 53/55 K/BB in 49.2 IP.

It’s not just Sam Bachman and Evan Shawver ready to break out in Southwest Ohio. Shawver’s teammate, Drake Batcho, is a very different prospect but comes with perhaps more upside. He arrived on campus a very raw product, and it showed; as a freshman, he ran up a 9.27 ERA and an ugly 29/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 33 innings, looking like a complete liability on the mound. He refined his stuff and command somewhat as a sophomore, and the results were considerably better: 2.16 ERA, 24/16 K/BB in 16.2 innings. Heading into 2021, if he keeps trending in this direction, he could find himself a Day One selection.

At this point, evaluators are honed in on Batcho for one big reason, and that’s his fastball. It’s a true plus pitch that sits in the low 90’s from the left side, playing up due to elite extension from a 6’4″ frame that makes it look like he’s releasing the ball right in front of your face. He also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup, though none is a finished product. Further refinement there will be critical for his ability to stick as a starter, as is the case with his command. Batcho’s command is presently a 40 at best, with a 21.7% walk rate for his career, another big problem.

Any team drafting Batcho needs to understand they might be getting a reliever. Presently, he has the fastball, frame, and durability to start, but he’ll need significant improvement in at least one if not two of his offspeed pitches to stick, as well as in his command. The good news is he’s young, as he was still just 19 years old when the season shut down in March. Given the true plus fastball, if he can refine even one of his offspeed pitches and get to 45 command this year, he’s a Day One prospect with a real shot at the rotation. If he doesn’t, his fastball will play extremely well out of the bullpen and he can pick one secondary pitch to work on.

8. OF Parker Chavers, Coastal Carolina

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’11”, 190 lbs. Born 7/25/1998. Hometown: Montgomery, AL

2018-2019: 22 HR, .319/.435/.554, 19 SB, 101/78 K/BB in 119 games.

The top undrafted college position player in 2020, Parker Chavers already has plenty of track record. He raked to the tune of a .319/.435/.554 line with 22 home runs and 19 stolen bases over his first two seasons at Coastal Carolina, then showed well in the Cape Cod League with a .274/.354/.478 line and seven home runs in 44 games in 2019. Shoulder problems kept him out of the shortened 2020 season, so evaluators were not willing to meet his asking price and he went undrafted. Already relatively old for the 2020 class, he’ll turn 23 shortly after the 2021 draft.

Chavers is a proverbial toolbox with an exciting combination of power, speed, and track record. Despite only standing 5’11”, he produces above average raw power that he gets to consistently in games, a product of raw strength and athleticism in addition to feel for the barrel. He also brings plus speed to the table, enabling him to stick in center field even without plus instincts. A relatively patient hitter, the Montgomery native has also walked in 14.9% of his plate appearances in Conway.

The main concern with Chavers is the consistency of his hit tool. He’s gotten to his power consistently at Coastal and on the Cape, but he also swings and misses, with a 19.3% strikeout rate at Coastal and 24.3% on the Cape. Now that he’ll be over 22 and a half for the whole 2021 season, evaluators will want to see that come down considerably. If he can get that strikeout rate down and maintain his big production, he can push himself back into the top 100 picks, but continued strikeout concerns could push him farther down in the draft given his age.

9. SS Josh Hood, Pennsylvania

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 185 lbs. Born 7/21/2000. Hometown: Vineland, NJ

2019-2020: 8 HR, .320/.386/.539, 1 SB, 30/20 K/BB in 49 games.

No Ivy Leaguer has gone in the top eight rounds since the Diamondbacks picked Brent Jones out of Cornell in the fourth round in 2014, but Penn’s Josh Hood has a good chance to do just that. After homering off Jack Leiter at the end of his senior year of high school, he burst onto the scene in Philadelphia with a .331/.411/.580 line, eight home runs, and a sharp 21/20 strikeout to walk ratio as a freshman in 2019. He dropped to a quiet .263/.256/.342 with nine strikeouts and no walks in eight games as a sophomore, then rebounded in the Coastal Plain League this summer to hit .280/.343/.495 with five home runs in 26 games.

Hood’s huge freshman season was driven by his feel to hit. The South Jersey native has great bat to ball skills that helped him strike out in just 10.1% of his plate appearances that year, but he’s not just a slap hitter, showing the ability to consistently barrel the ball into the gaps and even over fences. He’s not the most physical hitter in the world at 6’1″, but his power has played up with wood bats and he looks to have room to grow into some more. Hood has gotten more aggressive as his career has progressed, but he has shown more than enough plate discipline in the past to help him tap average or better power.

As a college shortstop who will stick in the dirt, there isn’t much to dislike in Hood’s game. Between his feel to hit and burgeoning power, he has more than enough bat to start if he reaches his ceiling. If the power stalls and he winds up closer to a 45 in that regard, he still has the pure hitting ability to project as a utility man. Hood, who grew up one town over from Mike Trout’s hometown, offers an intriguing combination of floor and ceiling once you get into Day Two. Throw in the fact that he won’t turn 21 until after the draft, and you’ll have a lot of teams interested.

10. LHP Matt Mikulski, Fordham

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 200 lbs. Born 5/8/1999. Hometown: Mohegan Lake, NY

2018-2020: 12-12, 3.98 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 148/65 K/BB in 144.2 IP.

Matt Mikulski, like Parker Chavers, went undrafted as a junior in 2020, but he’s more than nine months younger than his Coastal Carolina counterpart and will only turn 22 two months before the 2021 draft. Mikulski has been used in a starting role at Fordham, where he has been solid (3.98 ERA, 148/65 K/BB in 144.2 IP), and he showed really well in a swingman role in the Cape Cod League in 2019 (1.77 ERA, 28/13 K/BB in 20.1 IP). Returning to the Bronx for his senior year, he has a chance to go early on Day Two with just a little more consistency.

Mikulski has a lot going for him, especially considering he’s a 6’2″ lefty. His fastball currently sits in the low 90’s and can bump the mid 90’s even in a starting role, topping out around 96. There are two good breaking balls in a curveball and slider, both of which are usually average and can flash above average regularly. He also throws a changeup, but it’s his fourth pitch. The New Yorker can fill the strike zone, but his strikes are often scattered and he can go through bouts of well below average command when he isn’t feeling it.

Mikulski’s delivery was pretty choppy early in his Fordham career, and though he’s smoothed it out some, it still features some head whack and jerky arm action. For that reason, combined with the inconsistency in his strikes, he might profile better as a reliever. There, he could sit more consistently in the mid 90’s with his fastball, sharpen his breaking balls a bit, and ditch the changeup, and his 45 command won’t be as much of an issue. He still has a chance to be a back-end starter if he refines the changeup and command to about a 50.

Other Interesting Small/Mid Major Options in the East

Northeast Bats

The last man out from the above list was UConn’s Pat Winkel, who actually ranked #10 until Evan Shawver’s rise up the board. Winkel had a huge freshman season for the Huskies (.318/.361/.486, 7 HR), but struggled on the Cape (.194/.243/.337, 4 HR) and missed 2020 with Tommy John surgery. He’s a solid all-around defender behind the plate, which takes significant pressure off his bat and makes that freshman season look much better. The New Haven-area native maximizes his power with raw strength and an optimal, smooth swing from the left side, though his bat speed is ordinary and the power was non-existent on the Cape until he homered three times in his last four games. He’s also very aggressive at the plate with strikeout rates well north of 20% and walk rates around 6%, and will need to tighten that up considerably in 2020. If he can, he has a chance to be a power hitting starting catcher.

Another 2019 freshman star was Manhattan’s Nick Cimillo, who hit .350/.417/.498 with seven home runs in 59 games that year. He wasn’t quite as loud in 2020 (.259/.365/.370), but there is still a lot to like. The New Yorker has above average bat to ball skills that enable him to make a lot of line drive contact, and there is some power in his 6’3″ frame as well. However, as a likely corner outfielder, he’ll need to tap that power more to move up, and his likely ceiling is as a right handed platoon bat.

Northeast Arm

On the mound, I’m most interested in Bryant’s Tyler Mattison, who was eligible as a junior in 2020. He went 14-3 with a 3.44 ERA from 2018-2019, but regressed to an 8.53 ERA in 2020 as his velocity dipped. At his best, the righty from far Upstate New York can get into the mid 90’s with run and show solid average command. At other times, though, his fastball can dip into the upper 80’s and his command can elude him, while his fringy secondary stuff isn’t enough to make up for it. For that reason, despite a 6’4″, 235 pound frame, he probably fits better in the bullpen, where his fastball could play up.

Midwest Bats

Two additional Midwest bats stand out to me. One is Wright State’s Tyler Black, who ripped .348/.465/.614 with seven home runs and a ridiculous 15/35 strikeout to walk ratio as a freshman in 2019. That dropped to .239/.340/.370 as a sophomore, but we still have an interesting one here. The Toronto native has a gerat approach at the plate, attacking hittable pitches with very little swing and miss while still drawing his walks. He also has some power in his 6’2″ frame and has tapped it in games, though the bat can be a bit streaky. He projects as a bat-first second baseman that could play full time if he taps his power more consistently.

Blake Dunn was eligible in 2020, but despite a very successful career at Western Michigan (.338/.423/.460, 7 HR, 47 SB), he went undrafted. He flashes above average raw power with a compact right handed swing, though he hasn’t tapped it much in games and didn’t hit for much impact on the Cape in 2019 (.227/.335/.287, 2 HR, 16 SB). The western Michigan native also shows plus speed and a cannon arm, making him a plus defender in center field even if his instincts play closer to average. There is upside if he can learn to tap his power more often in games, but he’ll be nearly 23 on draft day and there are plenty of younger players with upside.

Midwest Arms

Miami of Ohio’s Sam Bachman and Cincinnati’s Evan Shawver and Drake Batcho all ranked in the top seven, but Ohio has still more to give. Ohio University’s Joe Rock is another fast-rising name, bringing mid 90’s heat and quickly improving secondaries from the left side. That will capture anyone’s attention, especially given he’s 6’6″. Rock was uneven as a freshman (5.19 ERA, 41/37 K/BB in 59 IP) but struck out five of the fourteen hitters he faced on the Cape that summer while allowing just one baserunner, then missed the 2020 season. He has more to prove than most in 2021, but he’ll still be 20 on draft day and has enormous upside.

Kent State’s Max Rippl hasn’t had eye popping numbers yet (5.59 ERA, 25/20 K/BB in 29 IP), but he does have the stuff. His fastball can touch the mid 90’s in short stints and he flashes an above average downer slider, though with fringy command he probably fits best in the bullpen. His June birthday also makes him young for the class.

South Bats

South Alabama’s Ethan Wilson, Memphis’ Hunter Goodman, and Coastal’s Parker Chavers are probably the consensus one, two, and three in this category, but I have an interesting sleeper behind them. James Madison’s Kyle Novak was a freshman on my high school baseball team when I was a senior, and the exceptional feel to hit he showed at the time has carried over to his college career. In two years in Harrisonburg, he owns a .307/.382/.398 line with three home runs and a nice 28/26 strikeout to walk ratio. Novak rarely ever swings and misses and finds the barrel consistently, though at a stocky 5’8″, he’s unlikely to grow into more than 45 power. He’s a man without a position for now, having spent time at DH, first base, and second base, the latter of which is probably his only route to pro ball, so he’ll need to improve his fringy defense there. With great feel for the barrel, though, he has the most important tool.

I’ll spend one more paragraph promoting my former high school teammates. Catcher Kyle Hayes is a grad transfer at George Mason after spending four years at James Madison, and the COVID shutdown and shortened draft likely kept him from being a Day Three selection. Hayes is a defense-first catcher who blocks everything thrown in his vicinity while working well with pitchers to bring the best out of them. He always showed strong plate discipline and feel for the barrel, but a lack of power meant he slashed just .186/.314/.202 over his first three years in Harrisonburg. 2020 was looking like a different story, returning from injury to slash .385/.467/.846 with a pair of home runs in five games. If the power surge had been for real, it likely would have combined with his plus defense to make for a depth piece later in the draft. Though he turned 23 in October, he has a chance to prove his bat in 2021.

South Arms

A number of arms from the South just missed this list. Gabe Shepard was eligible as a sophomore last year as he was a full year older than much of his class, bringing a career 2.79 ERA and a 62/21 K/BB in 42 innings at Southern Miss. He’s just 5’10” but can hit the mid 90’s with his fastball, getting nice run on the pitch with long arm action. The Mobile native also shows great feel to manipulate his breaking ball, working between a shorter cutter and a slurvier slider. His control has been inconsistent but he still has a chance to start. The Campbell Camels’ Cam Cowan (say that five times fast) was also eligible in 2020, but went undrafted despite a hot start to the season (3.00 ERA, 36/4 K/BB in 24 IP). The 6’5″, 245 pound Iowa native can hit the mid 90’s with his fastball and gets great ride on the pitch, while his average changeup and slurvy slider are less exciting. With a plus fastball, big frame, and good command, he could be a back-end starter with some refinement of his offspeed stuff.

Next we have two arms who saw an uptick in velocity. Bryce McGowan hasn’t gotten results at Charlotte yet (5.75 ERA, 63/49 K/BB in 76.2 IP), but his low 90’s fastball has crept into the mid 90’s more often this fall and has climbed as high as 97-98. McGowan’s slider also flashes above average and his changeup is coming along. The command has been fringy so far, but he has a loose, athletic delivery that could be refined enough to get him to average. Jacksonville State’s Christian Edwards is yet another arm returning from eligibility in 2020, having recently touched 99 with his fastball. He adds a good slider and projects as a power reliever.

Samford’s Samuel Strickland was also eligible in 2020, bringing and exceptional career at 18-5 with a 2.85 ERA and a sharp 174/36 strikeout to walk ratio in 173.2 innings. The 6’2″ lefty lacks big stuff, sitting around 90 and topping out around 92-93 with his fastball, adding a set of fringy secondaries. He has been enormously effective in Birmingham due to above average command as well as an innate ability to change speeds and keep hitters off balance, so any step forward with his velocity or secondary stuff could make him a hot commodity very quickly.

Lastly, Austin Vernon might be the biggest draft prospect I’ve ever written about. The NC Central righty is listed at 6’8″ (!) and 295 pounds (!!), but went undrafted in 2020 after missing the season recovering from arm surgery. He shows a vicious mid 90’s fastball coming from a violent delivery with head whack and long hair flying everywhere, adding in both a slider and a curveball that flash above average with late bite. The Raleigh native is almost certainly a reliever with inconsistent command that ranges from well below average to fringe average, but if he can stay healthy, he has late inning potential.

Florida Arms

Down in the Sunshine State, we have two more arms to watch, though they’re very different. I am very, very intrigued by Jermaine Vanheyningen, who was draft eligible last year. The New Jersey native began his career at Campbell, but redshirted his only season and transferred to Florence-Darlington Tech for 2019-2020. Now, he’s at FIU and could break out in 2021. Vanheyningen stands 6’7″ and has steadily added velocity, now sitting in the low to mid 90’s as a starter and topping out at 102 (!) in bullpens. Throw in plus extension, and you have a plus-plus pitch. The secondary stuff is fringier, with an average splitter and fringy breaking balls. He struggles with command as well, and for that reason he’s almost definitely a reliever in pro ball, where he could sit in the upper 90’s and work in his splitter. If Vanheyningen gets to even 45 command, he has closer upside.

Stetson brings us Daniel Paret, who has a 3.36 ERA and a 113/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings in DeLand. The stuff is average overall, with a fastball around 90 and an average slider and changeup. His advanced instincts and solid average command make it play up from the left side, and he projects as a back-end starter.